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Monday, April 30, 2007

GOLD & SILVER Keep Holding On

After weakness, strength. GOLD & SILVER keep holding on. Silver today climbed a measly 2/10 of a cent, gold 1.10. As long as they remain above 675 & 1330, they're okay. I'm expecting both metals to move up strongly this week.

Today the Dow Industrials gapped down about 30 minutes before the close. A gap shows on the chart as just that, a space were no traded were made. There are exhaustion gaps, which occur at tops, and there are breakaway gaps (upwards or downwards) that signal the start of a run. The rule of thumb is that "gaps are always filled," which means that usually the market trades back to the gap, often after a con-siderably long time.

Anyway, the Dow gapped between 13,100 & 13,090, found support at 13,080, then plunged to 10,061.53 and closed nearly on that very low, at 13,062.91. Whether the Dow is headed higher or not (& there's a good chance it is)it was waaaay overbought, & needing a correction. It started today.

Carefully, observantly note that the Dow in Gold Dollars, which Friday reached the top of the resistance range at a bit over G$400 (19.35 oz) fell back today to G$396.82 (19.2 oz). Now this only offers the first hint that stocks will not be outperforming gold in the near future, but have failed instead. And recall that the DiG$ remains firmly in a down-trend. The 200 DMA is at G$394.21 (19.07oz), so that's the breaking point here. A close below that tomorrow means the DiG$ attempt to break out upside has failed. A close above G$402 accomplishes the upside breakout. My money lies on falling back.

Sorry, I will be travelling the rest of this week, and so won't be sending out daily commentaries. I'll see y'all next week. I've gotta get some rest, so Susan & I are going to take a restful tour of east Tennessee.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, April 27, 2007

Gold Needs to Close Over 680 to Confirm it Has Bottomed

The Silver Price hit the bottom of its trading channel & bounced today. As my friend Supertechnician BL reminded me today, "It's a bull market: ya gotta go with it."Even if silver eventually drops more, it ought to rally a few days up to 1350. To prove it turned around today, silver needs to climb over 1345, then 1380. Fridays are not easy to judge from since shorts taking weekly profits can skew the market upward.

The Gold Price is a little out of synch with silver here. It doesn't look as ripe. It needs a close over 680 to confirm it has bottomed, but unlike silver hasn't reached the bottom of its trading channel yet. 200 DMA stands at 632, and strong support around 642 & 667. Gold probably has a few more hard days in front of it, and then, in the teeth of all the doomsayers, another rally.

Yesterday the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (DiG$)crossed into a critical resistance area at G$400 (19.35 oz)to close at G$401.41. Today it fell back below G$400 to G$399.64. The DiG$ must turn down now. Otherwise it is signally a long hard correction for gold. It stands above its 200 DMA (G$394.52), so it's at the make it or
break it point.

I hope y'all remember that the US Dollar & Gold do not move in lock step. Although over the long term they must move contrary to each other, for months at a time they can move together. The US DOLLAR INDEX made a low in March 2005 at 81.28. This week it posted a low at 81.29, but wouldn't close below 81.40. Yesterday it rallied, so it might have bottomed. If so then Monday it will race for 82. A close over 82 means some sort of rally has started, but it needs to confirm itself by a series of higher closes. Any close next week below 81.40 sends the dollar further down.

Out of the last 12 days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 12 days. Hmmm. . . Trouble soon? Today the indices were mixed, the Dow Industrials up barely (0.11%)NASDAQ Comp up 0.12%, S&P down a tiny 0.18 points, the Russell 1000 & 2000 down, the Dow Transports down a whopping 1.04%, and the Dow Utilities down 0.56%. Lot of confusion there, & confused markets fall. Yet with the Dow making new all-time highs day after day, who will doubt stocks -- other than me? I doubt still. Swap stocks for silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, April 26, 2007

The Dow in Gold Dollars has Been Warning that Stocks Were About to Rally Against Gold

Meditate today on the value of the Dow In Gold Dollars (DiG$) as an indicator. It has been warning us for days that stocks were about to rally against gold. Today the DiG$ rose to G$401.41 (19.4 oz). This level for a long time supported the market above, but on the way up becomes resistance. It seems to me still that markets are on a razor still & could fall either way. Stocks from here could drop and/or gold rise. This would be the extent of stocks rise and gold's fall. From the other side would be stocks continuing strong, the DiG$ rallying to G$425 (20.56 oz) or G$436 (21.09 oz) or even the half way mark of the DiG$ fall from its G$925.42(44.77 oz) high in 1999, namely, G$475 (22.98 oz.). That would require a very large gold correction, regardless what stocks did, taking gold to $550 or so, and silver to 950, or near the lows of 2006.

Makes you pretty philosophical, meditating on the DiG$, huh?

SILVER & GOLD didn't quite cooperate today, or perhaps I missed the correct resistance levels. Yesterday I was watching 1345 and 675 as correction lows. Today silver bottomed at 1316 and closed at 1332, gold dropped to 670.80 but closed at 674.90. Maybe I underestimated the strength of the reaction (weakness of metals)? Well, as support levels, that 1330 will do as well as 1345, and 674.90 is close enough to 675. However, if silver and gold did not find their feet today, silver will fall back to its 200 DMA at 1262, gold perhaps to its 200 DMA at 632. However, gold is less likely to fall that far, perhaps only to 667 or 640.

For the Gold/Silver Ratio any lengthy correction in gold implies a higher ratio.
Does all that cheer you up, gold & silver investors? Let it go. Markets go up, markets go down. Anybody who can't live with that ought to go to work at McDonald's, where the minimum wage only goes up (as long as Democrats are in power).

By the way, with metals dropping and stocks rising, now is a better time than every to swap stocks for silver and gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Gold and Silver's Refusal to Make New Lows - May Signal the Correction is Over

GOLD hit a low today of 682.30, higher than yesterday & than earlier this week. Silver's low was 13.69. Their refusal to make new lows -- in spite of closing lower today -- may signal the correction is over. I'm guessing both will close higher tomorrow, then resume the rally. Closes below 675 & 1345 negate that interpretation.

Stocks weren't confused today after all, were they? (Got that one wrong, didn't I?) Dow rose 135.95 to close at 13,089.89, above 13,000. Well, that cuts it, Moneychanger (you might be grumbling to yourself), you've been inveighing against stocks all this time & kept us from buying or even persuaded us to sell out & now look where they stand!

Sorry, you'll get no repentance from me on this subject. If you are out of stocks, I'm glad. If you're out because I made you think about it, I'm double glad. Why? Have I lost my miniscule mind? Nope, I am that certain that six months from now stocks will be lower than they are today, & lower still against both silver & gold? So what else can I say? Just this: Swap stocks for silver & gold.

Technically, there's not much telling where stocks will stop. The rally is overdue to end, but might last another 6 - 8 weeks. It might end tomorrow.

However, the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) gives us a dramatic ultimatum today. It closed at G$395.49 (19.13 troy oz), the very upper end of the recent trading range. Tomorrow, stocks must either fall, or gold must rise, or the DiG$ will be signalling a much larger stock rally against gold. In the aftermarket gold is up two dollars (to 686.20) & silver has risen more than 3 cents to 1380. That's a fairly large aftermarket move for gold.

Here's a surprise: the US Dollar sank again today. Just a couple of basis points. Reckon the Nice Government Men don't want it to fall too fast, & so are easing it down? If it doesn't break around here this week, it may have bottomed.

Friends, I need for y'all to do me a small favour. Catherine Austin Fitts of Solari.com & I have been developing a website,
www.silverandgoldaremoney.com

For years I have been trying to explain that we forge our own monetary & economic chains by using Federal Reserve money & bank credit money (checks & credit cards). We have a constitutional & legal right to trade in silver & gold coin, but since the Federal government stole all the gold in 1933 & took silver out of coinage in 1965, no one now alive knows how to use silver & gold in daily commerce. Worse, they have no idea what it's worth, so they fear they'll be cheated if they use silver & gold.

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE FED WANTS YOU TO BELIEVE. TO FOOL YOU INTO USING THEIR PAPER MONEY & CREDIT, THEY PURPOSELY MAKE IT HARD TO USE GOLD & SILVER MONEY.

Our website overthrows & reverses all that.
With our www.silverandgoldaremoney.com you can instantly calculate what to pay in silver & gold, & then use it in daily business & so stop using the money that is destroying you & your prosperity.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Tomorrow After Perhaps a Lower Opening Gold and Silver Should Close Higher

Ponder for a moment silver's moving averages: 17 DMA a6 1374.45, 50 DMA at 1357.65, and the 200 DMA at 1261.12. Now add the strong support at 1345-1350. Silver ought to catch at aht silver if, as I interpret, we are seeing only the last correction before a push to knock at the May 2006 highs. Tomorrow, perhaps after a lower opening & a fight, should close higher, for both gold and silver.

GOLD fell 6.40 today, but with a higher low. $675, maybe 672, should be support gold can count on. Closes below 672 & 1345 would flash brightly that my interpretation erreth.

Yesterday I remarked on the confusion in silver and gold, one down and one up. A confused market usually drops. Today stocks were confused, with the Dow closing only 8 points from the last low, & the S&P500 closing down. The Dow's close might be a double top to set up for a sharp drop to scare the complacent out of their positions.

The Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) ran all the way nearly to the bop of its range today, closing at G$391.38 (18.93 oz), above the 50 day moving average (G$387.16) but under the 200 DMA (G$394.02). DiG$ should kiss that 200 DMA at least. Any close higher than G$400 would signal a much stouter DiG$ rally, joy for stocks, and trouble for gold -- short term.

Y'all kept me busy all day with those French 20 Franc Angels and German 20 marks. I managed to find a few more of each -- 20 Angels @ 139.25 & 16 Germans at 166.25, if anyone else is interested. Call (888) 218-9226. Ask for my son, Justin -- let him dance for a while. Please mention goldprice.org when you call.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, April 23, 2007

Look for One More Down Day & Higher Prices the Rest of the Week

SILVER and GOLD PRICES remain confused, and that's not good. One closes over critical resistance one day, but the other drops. Then next day they trade places. Today silver closed up and over 1400, while gold closed down slightly. Platinum also dropped today. I still believe silver and gold will rise more, gold at least to last year's high at 720. Look for one more down day & higher prices the rest of the week. Silver must not close below 1372; gold must hold above 684.80.

The US DOLLAR INDEX closed up slightly today. It looks more & more as if it is feeling with its feet for a bottom. However, that lies in the future. It has a lot more feeling around to do first.

The DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE has risen for 7 straight days. Time for a rest. Higher prices coming, but look out for sharp correction. No change of long term outlook, which is dismal for stocks. Swap stocks for silver & gold while the market is throwing you a soft ball.

Here's another little surprise, something I don't see very often, actually two little surprises. First, I found 26 only franc "Angels" or "Angel Writing" French 20 francs. It's not a rare coin by any means, but they're so pretty that usually whoever buys them hangs on to them. The coin depicts an unclothed angel, writing at a standing desk. I can sell them at $5.00 more than the Rooster type, at $139.25 each, limit 5 pieces to an order and one lucky person will get 1 coin. (Each 20 franc contains 0.1867 oz gold).

Second, that lot of German 20 marks two weeks ago sold out so fast I looked for more, & found twenty (20) pieces. I'll sell them for $166.25 plus postage, a 4.5% premium. Each German 20 mark contains 0.2304 oz gold) As always, first come, first served, call (888) 218-9226. Please mention goldprice.org when you call.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, April 20, 2007

Gold Closed at a New High for the Move - Likely it will Close Higher on Monday

I'll say GOLD surprised me today. I expected it to fall a bit further. Today's close makes me want to say that gold's correction has ended, since it closed at a new high for the move. There's a 30% chance it will move down once more, say on Monday, & scare everyone again just before it takes off, but the greater likelihood is a higher close Monday.

I'm getting more excited about this. SILVER rose sharply today, but not (as gold) to a new high. Silver below 1400 keeps worrying me, but still I believe next week will see prices move up strongly.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO remains in an area that offers no profitable swap.

The US DOLLAR INDEX kept on falling this week, but instead of falling on to the March 2005 low at 81.28, it has caught hold here at 81.60. But a trend in force remains in force until it changes, so the buck's trend remains down, with logical targest at last lows, namely, 81.28 and 80.39. Recall that 80 has been the bottom of the range for nearly 40 years, with a few short spikes to 78, so if the dollar definitively falls through 78-80, kiss it good-bye. That's not as likely (in my opinion) on this trip as a turnaround and rally for 6 months or so. Rallying or falling, I don't want to be stuck with dollars since their long term trend is down.

The DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE made three new highs this week, today's being the latest. However, other indices stand far distant from their spring 2000 highs. Only the S&P 500 is nearing its 24 March 2000 high of 1,527.46. (I take that back. The Wilshire 5000 has exceeded its old high by about 30 points, closing today at 15,009.91). I can dimly remember hedging my bets several months ago by telling y'all it was possible the Dow would touch 13,000. That could happen, but stocks are still headed down. Proof is that on a surge nearly to 13,000, the Dow in Gold Dollars remains in the middle of its recent trading range, down about 60% from the August 1999 high. Against silver stocks have fallen even further from their high, and that trend isn't half way over. Swap stocks now for silver & gold.

Monday may hand me my head, but there's a good chance in my eyes that we may have seen the stock high today, or will see it in the next two days. The whole move from the March lows may have been a correction of that fall from 12,795 to 11,939. If so, trouble for stocks starts soon.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS is whispering that stocks will gain against gold, but not much. Maybe the DiG$ will climb to the top of the recent range at G$394, but that's about it. G$400 (19.35 oz) will surely stop it.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, April 19, 2007

Corrections Cleanse the Market and Make Silver & Gold Even Stronger

The GOLD PRICE made a low today at 678.50 (down 10.60) but came back strongly at the close, down only 4.20 at 684.9 As I said a couple of days ago, expect a shallow correction that takes gold down to 675.

Today the SILVER PRICE dropped as low as 1348 (down 46.9) but climbed back to close at 1371.6, down only 23.30. Remember a few weeks ago when silver had tough work to climb through 1345? That 1345 will act as support moving downward. I expect that price to hold, but if it doesn't silver could drift on down to 1315 - 1330. 50 day moving average stands at 1356 today & 200 DMA at 1256.50.

I know that no discipline is pleasant for the moment, but corrections cleanse the market and make silver & gold even stronger than they were. When they leave you too nervous, try concentrating on the long term. Silver & gold are in a bull market, a long term primary uptrend. Look at this little move against that background, and it ought to calm you.

Nothing to say about the Gold/Silver ratio today. It rose, as you would expect when metals are weak. The only difference between a rut and a grave is the depth.

Most significant thing that happened today was not the fall in gold, but the rise in the Dow in Gold Dollars. A little falling wedge had been building for several weeks, which normally points to an upside breakout. It also broke through the downtrend line that runs back to the first of January. It measures to a target of only 395, the top of the 380 - 394 range we've been watching. Plain message? That stocks will outperform gold for several days, maybe two weeks.

STOCKS were closing down 4 points or so, yet when the settlement came in Zutz! Last minute buying pushed the Dow up to a new high by 4.8 points. Since I expect stocks to begin another massive bear market leg down later this year, higher stocks & lower silver & gold is a heaven-sent opportunity to me to swap stocks for silver & gold. Stocks are headed higher near term.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, April 17, 2007

Today the US Dollar Index Broke Badly

Today the US DOLLAR INDEX broke badly, down 32 basis points. Who didn't expect that, after it broke 82.35? Target? In March 2005 it made a low at 81.25, before that in December 2004 at 80.39. If the dollar doesn't stop there, 'twill go the way of the Reichsmark in 1923. You Nice Government Men listening? End of the world's coming if y'all don't act.

With the US Dollar hitting its lowest point in two years, you'd think that would boost silver and gold a little. Well, you'd think wrong. It didn't. Somewhere along the way this rally became more difficult than I expected. Today both metals backed off slightly, yet gold has mastered its last high, convincingly enough. At that point public enthusiasm ought to have kicked in, but it hasn't yet.

Silver closed today a suspicious 8/10 of one cent below the psychologically important 1400. Gold looks a trifle overbought, but silver still has room to rise Maybe we will get a reaction to 675 and 1380. That would give metals time to gather strength for another run at the highs. It's way too soon for this rally to end, and it's not that overbought.

Big news is the Dow did not make a new high today, although it certainly had the chance. Today's high was 12,790 with a 12,773 close, while the last high, 12,795, closed the day at 12,785. Oddly enough, the NASDAQ dropped today. Dow volume dropped also, substantially, pointing to an end to the present move. Hard to call this weakness, because even if it were going to exceed the old high.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, April 16, 2007

Gold and Silver Ought to Climb the Rest of the Week

GOLD & SILVER came under attack out of the gate this morning. But try as they might, the shorts couldn't drive gold lower than 682.50. When they gave up the spring back was enough to take gold 4.70 higher than Friday's close.

SILVER PRICES got slugged, too, and fell to 13.77, but rebounded to close practically unchanged, and still over 1400.

All this is slow and seems to be lacking energy. Or, look at it this way. Maybe silver & gold don't lack energy, maybe the resistance is that stiff. Anyway, today shows that they ought to climb the rest of the week.

My friend BL the Supertechnician says that when you look at a chart you ought to tear off the label so you won't be influenced by anything except the chart's own appearance. Staring at the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS, I was thinking about the trading range it's been stuck in, G$380.30 (18.39 oz) to G$393 (19.01 oz) since the last Dow high on 20 February. (Actually it did dip to G$369 (17.85 oz) on 27 February during that big stock drop. Since then it's been range bound, G$380 - G$393. But now that I look at it the DiG$ may have formed a falling wedge. Those usually break out to the upside, so we might see stocks outperform gold for a while. Still, it probably wouldn't carry past G$400 (19.35).

STOCKS had a run today; the Dow rose 108.33 to 12,720.46, and the S&P 500 rose 15.62 to 1,468.47. With the last high (20 Feb. at 12,785) only 60 points away, the Dow will probably touch that tomorrow. That will occasion a pullback. We could well see the Dow better that old high, and yet it isn't even in the race with silver & gold. Oh, stocks will be so painful later this year. Swap stocks for silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, April 13, 2007

Gold Should Reach and Perhaps Pierce 720 in the Next Two Weeks

My goal for the GOLD PRICE has been a close above 686.50, but today it didn't quite reach that. It spent all week trying to break through 675, then today jumped up $10.30. There's a slight chance that the shorts attacking on Monday at 686 might drive it down, but gold ought to continue rising for at least two more weeks. It should reach 720, perhaps even pierce that level. Seasonally gold could keep on climbing well into June. If it does it will be knocking on $900.

The SILVER PRICE had to work very hard to break through 1400, but at last clawed its way over that mark. Both Gold & Silver need to advance from here to confirm these breakouts. From here to 1450 Silver faces hard fighting. Last May's peak was 1484.50. Once silver crosses that line things will really go crazy. Above it the first resistance stands at 1625.

Unless Monday sees silver close below 1380 and gold below 675, next week both metals ought to climb strongly into last year's highs. A dropping dollar won't hurt, either. Stay out of stocks. They're a sucker play.

It was a week of break throughs, and one break down. The US DOLLAR INDEX broke down today, closing below December's low. It will drop at least to 81.50, maybe 81.28, maybe even 80.39,but then will come a rally. Longterm, you don't want to own dollars, or have any dollars owed to you. The buck is headed much, much lower over the next 10 years, say, down to 60 or 40.

STOCKS yesterday appeared to verge on breaking down, but today put themselves back in the races with a new high for the move. The Dow may yet reach that old high, & may coast along sideways for a couple of months, but soon, soon the decline will begin. You will be much better off holding silver and gold in the next 5 years, so swap stocks for silver & gold.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS fell this week to the bottom of its recent range. It hints that gold will be losing against gold in the near future.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, April 12, 2007

Any Close Over 686.5 and Gold Will Run Fast For 720

The GOLD PRICE keeps on hitting its head on the ceiling of the last high (686.50). It still has plenty of room to move higher. Present dullness suggests gold may see a shallow correction here, then come back to roar through 686.50. I don't see a big fall, though. Any close over 686.50 will run fast for 720.

SILVER and gold look much alike here but silver lacks enthusiasm. The present upmove shouldn't be more than halfway finished in time. Tracking with gold, silver could correct shallowly. The barrier here is 1400, and the must hold point is 1350.

When might the logjam break? The GOLD/SILVER ratio gives a clue. Bumping along its 50 day moving average (48.96), it is ready to drop through that mark. If so, it will then drop sharply, that is, silver will take off.

In December the dollar bottomed at 82.35. Today it has arrived at that same point. Today either marks the threshold of a breakdown, or a double bottom. We can't know until the buck confirms one way or the other. If it drops any lower, it will keep on falling to 80.39 (Dec. 05 low), maybe lower. But right now it looks like a double bottom, a fit platform from which to launch a rally.

Stocks bounced today off their 50 day moving average, but it looks to me like the Dow has completed its correction off the February 27 drop & now is ripe to resume falling. A close above 12,593 explodes that theory. A close below yesterday's (12,484.62) confirm that the dropping has begun. Don't wait for that to happen. Swap stocks for silver and gold now.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Gold and Silver Rally Remains Intact

'Twasn't a good day for silver & gold. They just didn't do much. Gold rose 30 whole cents, after making an attack on 680 and failing, then falling to 674.
Obviously a lot of folks are willing to short here near the last high (686.50).

Early in the day SILVER rose to 1399, but failed like gold. It quickly bottomed at 1368, and spent the rest of a quiet day around 1380. Clearly, shorts are
waiting at 1400.

No, I didn't particularly like today, but can't say that I see anything wrong. Volume remains good. Other indicators are a little high but could go much
higher without straining. Rally remains intact.

I'm sorry that we didn't have enough of those small Mexican coins yesterday, but they ran out quickly. I felt bad about it and dug around to see if I could find some more small coins. I turned up a couple of interesting things.

First, I found 100 German 20 marks, all minted before 1915 by imperial Germany. They'll likely have Wilhelm I or II on one side, and the imperial German eagle on the reverse. They contain 0.2304 troy ounce of fine gold just 0.005 oz. less than the British sovereign's 0.2354 troy ounce, and are about the size of a US quarter. I can sell them for US$162.85 each (4.6% over the gold value), minimum 5 coins, postage not included.

Next I found 65 one-tenth Krugerrands (0.1000 troy ounce fine gold). I can sell these at US$70.85 each, a 4.9% over gold value, minimum 10 coins, postage not included. All of these are sold on a first-come, first-served basis because I can't re-order at these prices. I won't be offering specials like this regularly. They just happened to turn up & I thought y'all might like them. Please mention goldprice.org when you place your order.

You begin to think the US DOLLAR INDEX is just being contrary. It drops to 82.65, then refuses to follow through. I know I shouldn't blame every-thing on the Nice Government Men, but this has a taste of malicious glee to it. For now the buck remains in a downtrend, so expect lower prices.

Today the DOW hit its 50 day moving average at 12453 and looked sick all day, closing down 99.96 points (no fudging with that number, huh? Talk about a dime store number, just to avoid it falling a full 100 points). Dow may be rolling over & turning down. A close today below 12,500 raises that suspicion. A close tomorrow below today confirms it. Looks like the correction from the fall may be com-plete. Stop me! Stop me! No, no, I have to say it: swap stocks for silver & gold.

DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS has sunk to the bottom of the range -- that's good.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO is also falling, another plus.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, April 10, 2007

If Silver Stays Above 1380 and Gold Above 667 They Ought To Keep Rising

GOLD & SILVER rose well the past two days, but for reasons I can't identify, they're leaving me a little nervous. Discount on US 90% silver coin bags increased by 5 cents an ounce today. I would genuinely be relieved to see silver climb well over 1400 cents tomorrow & gold to climb over 686.50.

There I go again, worrying about a bull market. I ought rather be thinking that gold and silver broke out of chart formations, touched back, & have now begun rising again. Long as silver stays above 1380 and gold above 667 they ought to keep rising.

Here's a little surprise for y'all. I know y'all love these little tiny gold coins. I managed to find 130 only Mexican 2.5 pesos (contains 0.0603 troy oz.) at US $43.15 each and 21 only Mexican 2 pesos (0.0482 troy oz.) at $34.60. First come, first served, minimum order ten (10) coins, postage not included.
Call (888) 218-9226.

That Dow slopped all around today with a low at 12,549. It held there, but needed two tries to do it. Managed to close a leetle bit higher, but not masterfully. Apprenticefully. Y'all have pity on yourselves and swap stocks for silver & gold. Stocks probably going higher.

I pity anybody who tries to play the US DOLLAR INDEX. Yesterday it appeared to have bottomed & turned up at 83.106, then today is trading at 82.698, which I believe is lower than any close last week. Nice Government Men must be having fun, reeling in the suckers. I'm out. I can't parse it. Reason says it is headed lower. Matters not to the prudent. Dollar is a dead duck long term, and you ought to shuck them like a fall white oak shucks leaves in a hurricane. Do NOT own any assets that will pay you future dollars.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, April 05, 2007

Gold Could Well Reach $900 and Silver $18 by the End of May

Finally -- a week where things broke out.

Gold Price Close Last Week : 663.00
Gold Price Close This Week: 674.20
Change: $11.20 or 1.7%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1339
Silver Price Close This Week: 1369.4
Change: 30.40 cents or 2.3%

This week SILVER & GOLD PRICES vindicated themselves after a month-long correction, closing above 1345 & 667. However, this is not a done deal yet. Gold still must close over the old high at 686.50. Silver must battle its way through resistance at 1380, 1400 - 1425, and then close over 1484.60. Sounds impossible, unless you consider what we have seen already in this bull market. Gold could well reach $900 and silver $18 by the end of May, although that goal is looking more distant. The present rally must really turn on the heat to make that come true.

Investors ought always remember that no analyst can speak confidently about the future. We know what likelihoods are, but not outcomes. Right now silver could drop to 9.50 and silver to 525 and they would still remain within their uptrends. I think the likelihood is surpassingly small that might happen, but it exists still. Buy some silver & gold at these prices, but buy lots more on breakouts over 686.5 and 1459.

The US DOLLAR closed today at 82.677, against a 82.64 low last week and a December 82.35 low. If it cracks here it should drop at least to 82.35, maybe to 80.50. If the dollar holds here, then it will have built a floor from which it can launch a rally. My guess is it will do that.

STOCKS have established an uptrend after their horrifying March low. This week the Dow broke out above 12,300 to close over 12,500. There is much more upside left in stocks, perhaps another three months, even a high as high as the old high at 12,795.93. Yet, "It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound & fury, signifying nothing." Two different things could happen, either dictating swapping stocks for silver & gold. The Dow could head into a long nosedive that goes below 6,000 ultimately, or, spurred by inflation, the Dow keeps rising but fails miserably to keep up with silver and gold. Eventually you will need only 100 oz silver or less, or 4 oz of gold or less, to buy the entire Dow. Either way, you'll be better served with silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, April 04, 2007

Gold Should Proceed Upwards Quickly

Sure enough, the GOLD PRICE pierced 667 & ran, posting a high of 675.60 and closing at 672.10. Back in February when gold last graced these regions, there were only five closes higher than today's. The high close to beat is 686.50, but 683 will offer trouble, too. Gold should proceed upwards quickly. To get stuck below 686.50 would be no good at all -- very bad, in fact.

The SILVER PRICE cleared 1345 at last, and even outperformed Gold today (the Gold/Silver Ratio fell), but stands in quite a different case to gold's. Where gold needs only clear this one last hurdle to attack its May 2006 high (720), silver has several hurdles. First is 1380, then 1400 - 1425, then the February high at 1469. The May 2006 high close was 1486.50. To my eyes silver made a V bottom on Monday, & has plenty of strength to keep moving up.

STOCKS rested today, but fell toward 12,500 twice and recovered both times. That firms up support there, and stocks will move higher. Yet higher or lower, holding them will only leave investors poorer. Swap stocks for silver & gold.

That blasted US dollar confounded me again, and dropped back under 83. Perhaps this is just a touchback? See what happens to people who trust the dollar?
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, April 03, 2007

Silver & Gold Keep Pounding on the Doors of 1345 and 667

Wham! Wham! Wham! SILVER & GOLD keep pounding on the doors of 1345 and 667. Lows today were higher than yesterday (1319 & 661.50), so silver & gold are building rising triangles, which usually resolve to the upside. After taking so long to batter through this resistance, they ought to make quite a long move on the breakout. (On the other hand, if they fail here they're in for quite a long recovery.)

Once again, though, as yesterday, one metal closed up and the other down. That's not positive, just confused. It occurs to me that silver & gold must break through tomorrow or risk falling again.

Oh, my, STOCKS jumped today. Some of y'all may remember that I've been hinting for some time they would do that. Right? But what do I always say after that? Swap stocks for silver & gold. After today's performance, I can only say -- ditto.

The US DOLLAR bounced off yesterday's 82.88 close, made a low trade at 82.82, and closed up 30 basis points at 83.18. If it can close higher tomorrow, then the buck ought to rally. Interesting that the buck rose strongly but silver & gold didn't do so badly.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, April 02, 2007

Was Today A Key Reversal for Gold and Silver?

SILVER & GOLD PRICES pulled a trick today that should have made them look stronger, but only added to the confusion. Both metals dropped toward their lows of last Thursday (1310 & 655), made lows (1296 & 656.20) and then recovered strongly. Sounds like a key reversal and mark that the correction has ended, but not quite. The silver price dropped to a lower low today, & closed down 9.7 cents on the day, while the gold price closed up 2.70.

But let's see what tomorrow does. Even if it had been a key reversal today, that would only mark the first half of a key reversal: break into new low territory for the move & a higher close, followed by a higher close the next day. Numbers I am watching are 667 for gold and 1340 for silver. Metals need to clear those levels this week.

STOCKS were confused also, most indices up but several down. Dow & S&P500 ended up a few points on the day, but nothing inspiring. I suspect the Dow will break above 12,400, probably tomorrow. Notwithstanding, swap stocks for silver & gold.

The US Dollar index is nearing a point of no-return. It closed today below 82.90, a scant 20 basis points above its last low at 82.64, & not a long way from the December 82.35 low. Trend in effect is down. Dollar needs a close above 84.25 to turn up.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO has been confused, too. It doesn't want to fall, which it ought to do in a precious metals rally.

These extended slack periods in markets hide tension underneath the surface. Imagine holding your hands in front of you, palms together, & pressing together with all your might. Your hands would be still in front of you, but under tremendous pressure keeping them there. If one or the other weakens, they'll move a lot. Same occurs often with markets that seem "quiet." They're not quiet at all, just well-balanced for the moment. When one side or the other gives, there will be movement enough to satisfy any appetite.

On this glorious day in 1792 the US Congress passed its first Coinage Act, which you can find at 1 Statutes at Large 246. Enacted to give the country a sound monetary system, its "dollar" of 371.25 grains of fine silver was based on the average weights of circulating Spanish milled dollars or pieces of eight. That the "dollar of silver" was intended to be the standard coin cannot be doubted, since the act provided no gold coins denominated in dollars. Rather, it established "Eagles" of about 1/2 ounce valued at 10 dollars, half eagles valued at $5, & quarter eagles valued at $2-1/2. Further proof: when the Coinage Act of 1834 aligned US coinage with the world gold/silver ratio, it was the gold and not the silver coins that were reduced. The silver dollar was then, and remains today, the standard coin of the US.

All of this remains law in force today, but why is no silver or gold circulating? Why is our prosperity ravaged by inflation & government intervention? Because the same congress abandoned the old path & gave a monopoly of creating money out of thin air to a private corporation, the Federal Reserve.

But what about Article 1, Section 10 of the constitution, "No State shall make any Thing but gold & silver coin a tender in payment of debt." Yet daily in millions of transactions states trounce the constitution by making federal reserve (green paper money & bank money) a tender. They know they have a problem.

That's what Tupper Saussy hit with his 1978 book, Miracle on Main Street. He inspired thousands of people to go into courts & demand their monetary rights. Oh, the judges howled & lied, as did bureaucrats, but Tupper very nearly sparked a restoration of law.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.