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Friday, June 29, 2007

Get Ready to Buy Gold and Silver, and No Small Amount

Just to keep us sober for the rest of this commentary, let's look at this week's scores: down were gold prices, silver prices, the dollar, platinum prices, & palladium prices; up were stocks & the Gold/Silver Ratio. The Dow in Gold Dollars also rose.

SILVER & GOLD PRICES slapped us around this week pretty badly. In one of those spectacular nose dives for which volatile silver is justly famous, it dropped 72 cents this week. Gold, always less volatile, dropped only $5.40.

We are caught on the horns of the market. Either metals will catch here, perhaps drop off a little more, & turn around, or they will begin a four month or longer correction that could carry silver as low as 1080 & gold to 570. If we are to see lower prices, we should see them very soon. Silver's pattern on falls is to fall very fast to an extreme bottom, then spend the next few months working higher by working sideways. Wears on the nerves, but if you have courage to buy on that first plunge, you may profit handsomely.

Both silver and gold are firmly in a downtrend. We have to see positive evidence of an upturn or a bottom before we can pronounce them "turned." However, I have never minded anticipating a bottom, so I am steadily watching. I certainly wouldn't be short here, and I would keep a careful eye on the market. If you aren't ready to buy yet, then get ready to buy, and no small amount. Saying all that, I warn you still that gold may very well have bottomed. Buying while the world is proclaiming the death of silver & gold, as they most certainly will, will require all your nerve. Use it. Go ahead, puke in the waste-basket, and then buy.

Although stocks rose slightly this week, they were rising off a panic low, and their performance was not precisely inspiring. In fact, stocks tried to rally on Monday & Tuesday, and fell toward the close. Wednesday they bottomed, but Thursday & Friday repeated the pattern of gains slipping away by closing time. Rising interest rates & fear over Bear Stearns two wobbly hedge funds suggest stocks have a hard, hard summer in front of them.

Speaking of jitters about Wall Street, did y'all hear about a federal court in Chicago freezing the assets of Lake Shore Asset Management, a hedge fund run by a former chairman of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange? It seems that Lakeshore's director Laurence Rosenberg & others said that LAM was managing $1 billion, when in fact it was managing about $466. Whoops! Where did the money go? Money heaven? On 14 June LAM committed the ultimate faux pas by refusing to allow CFTC regulators to see its accounts. Bureaucrats don't like snubbing, so these ran to mama in federal court & got an order freezing $228 million of investor's money at LAM. La, la, tales such as these certainly build confidence in our financial system, don't they?

The Dow in Gold Dollars tried again this week to break through resistance around G$430 - G$432, but failed again. Time is running out for stocks. We need to see a close below G$415 to confirm, but it appears that whatever happens, stocks will not be outperforming gold in the near future. Only a DiG$ close above G$436 (21.092 oz) would negate that.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, hanging by its fingernails on the edge of the cliff, slipped today & dropped 31 basis points, closing where it began its rally. If it fails to hold here, it will sink & sink & sink, say, to 80.50. La, la, wonderful to live under such a currency, no?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 28, 2007

Silver & Gold Prices are at a Critical Juncture. They Will Either Catch and Hold, or Correct, Decline, & Move Sideways for 2 - 6 months.

Silver & Gold Prices are at a critical juncture. They will either catch and hold, or correct, decline, & move sideways for 2 - 6 months. No, I don't know which. Today's bounce doesn't mean much, coming after huge falls day before yesterday.

The Silver Price finds support at 1220 (obviously) and 1200, then 1150, then 1100. Somebody is buying silver at these prices, since the premium on 90% silver bags has risen from -60 cents to -50.

The Gold Price finds support at 625-635, 600, 570, & 550. Gold coin premiums remain unchanged.

Gird up your loins. If metals drop, you'll be tempted to run. Don't. Rather, it is time to buy more.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO had hit top of its downward trading channel, so it's time to swap gold for silver. Do it. If you want to do it through us, call (888)218-9226. Any dealer can do it for you, but we make a special price to keep transaction costs low, that is,we charge commission on one side of the trade only.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is slowly grinding lower, having failed to hold on at the 82.35 resistance. If it breaks, it will fall to 81.70 quickly. A close below there will loudly scream that no rally is coming.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 26, 2007

The Gold Price Joined the Silver Price Over The Cliff Today

Today's markets tell a tale quickly told: everything is sinking out of sight.

The Gold Price joined the Silver Price over the cliff today, falling 9.20 to 642.10. It opened at 651, made a high at 651.30, a low at 640.10, and closed (on the cash market) at 640.65, 642.10 on the spot futures. In the aftermarket it has dropped to 639.20. Months ago I said that if it broke, gold might drop to 635. That still looks like a good target with support there and the 200 day moving average (638.75) and 300 day (636.66). If that doesn't hold, it could drop to 600 or even 560. However, it looks awfully oversold.

SILVER cranked up its jets today for a 59.6 point flight. Unfortunately, the jets were pointed the wrong way. Silver hit a high at 1287, and a low at 1211, but rallied off the low to close at 1227. In the aftermarket it has traded as low as 1221.5. The worst news is that this could mark the beginning of a great correction that might send silver to 950 or 1000 or 1100. On the other hand, looking back at the April 2004 and May 2006 peaks, during this silver market one strategy has always paid off: buy the steep falls. Within a few days they hit bottom and the first fall usually marks the greatest depth. Also, silver here has fallen through its 200 & 300 DMAs, only the second time it has pierced that 300 DMA. That suggests this is a clever, but stomach wrenching place to buy. Certainly, there's enough blood in the streets.

Get your eyes up, folks -- it's a long term bull market. Take the down days with the victories. You'll yet sing again the praises of silver & gold.

Stocks show a double top. When they break 13,250,they're gone. Get out of stocks & into cash until silver & gold settle down.

The Dow in Gold Dollars rose again today, up G$5.60 to G$429.39. The more times anything knocks on a door of resistance, the bigger the chance the door will open. It is looking more and more like stocks will get past this G$430 or so resistance. Need a close below G$415 to gainsay that.

The US Dollar is scrabbling hard at the 82.35-ish support level, but it hangs by a thread. If it breaks that line, nothing to stop it but 81 or 80.50. Stinks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 25, 2007

The GOLD/SILVER Ratio Shot Up Today - Bad Omen, That.

The GOLD/SILVER ratio shot up today, up 38.3 points and headed for its 50 day moving average at 50.12. Bad omen, that. I don't like that at all.

SILVER dropped more than gold today, right thru its 200 DMA (1291) to stop at 1286.6, an old stomping ground. During bull markets, any time you revisit the 200 DMA is usually a good time to buy.

GOLD remains stuck above 650, but remains also in a downward trending channel. We should see lower prices.

Lo, out of the stock dust riding, riding, came the bargain hunters, saddlebags stuffed with bucks. They saw their chance, they drew their bucks, they bought after last week's lows, they drove the Dow up 128 points, then the bears began shooting back. When the dust cleared, the smarty bargain hunters were all riddled with bullets, the bears had emptied their saddle bags, and the Dow had not only lost its 128 points but also closed down another 8.21 points.

Friends, the Dow is rolling over, & after it closes below 13,250, no honest guru will be able to deny it. Wait! What did I say? "Honest guru"? What is that? The Dow in Gold Dollars rose a little today, to G$423.79 (20.501 oz), nothing significant.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 22, 2007

For All Gold & Silver's Sorry Performance This Week, Both Ended The Week Higher than They Began

Gold Price Close Last Week : 645.50
Gold Price Close This Week: 653.50
Change: 8.00 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1299.9
Silver Price Close This Week: 1308
Change: 8.10 cents or 0.6%


I've often remarked that the only thing that counts is the scoreboard, not excuses. How did things finish the week? For all GOLD & SILVER's sorry performance this week, both ended the week higher than they began.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, on the other hand, sank wretchedly after reaching for the moon & coming away with only a handful of mouldy cheese. Today it closed below crucial 82.35 performance. We'll see on Monday whether it will follow thru. If it holds, then the dollar's chances for a rally remain. If it closes lower, forget it.

Charts for SILVER & GOLD PRICES don't particularly encourage. Gold is locked in a down trend & must close over 672 to convince even its fans that it is rallying, although it has stoutly held on this week. Silver has been building a triangle and could break either way, but is riding now along its 200 DMA. Remember that this time of the year both metals generally make a seasonal low. Looked at from that standpoint, recent performance hasn't been so bad.

In these sideways markets it's easy to become bored and complacent, or to get disgusted & throw in the towel. Don't. Remember the long term: silver & gold are in a primary uptrend (bull market)with another 10 - 15 years to run. Even a temporary decline won't change that. Indeed, it only presents buying opportunities. If silver & gold keep on trading sideways here without breaking down, then it's time to buy.

STOCKS fell like a Holstein cow out of a C-130 today,& the excuse du jour was that worries about Wall Street's financial health took stocks down. (Two Bear Stearns hedge funds are floundering.) Yet consider the picture. Today stocks fell 186 points, the fifth daily loss of more than 100 points for the Dow this month. Friends, that's "volatility." It points to stocks rolling over to the downside.

There came yet a more pungent signal of stocks turning down from the Dow in Gold Dollars. After shooting to G$430 (20.801 oz) yesterday, play-acting as if it would go through the G$436 old high, today it dropped clean through G$425 support & came to rest at G$422.62 (20.444 oz). That is the second half of a double top on the chart; it needs only to follow through Monday with a lower close, & the DiG$ will have flashed its warning: "Stocks tanking, gold outperforming." Okay, I'm exaggerating just a leetle. The DiG$ must close below G$415, then G$400 (19.350 oz) to really clinch that message.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 21, 2007

Even With Today's Drop, There's No Real Change in SILVER & GOLD

Even with today's drop, there's no real change in SILVER & GOLD. Gold is locked in a downtrend, while silver has been building an even-sided triangle. It could break either way out of that, and gold needs to close out of this range, run for 680.

In a frustrating sideways market like this one danger is that you'll fell like you're watching some Brad Pitt movie and stop paying attention. Then you miss something building, so Wake up, there!

STOCKS rose again today, not much, but more when thrown against the backdrop of gold's 5.50 fall. The Dow in Gold Dollars, which yesterday had broken broken below 425 support for the second time, today ran back up to G$430, where it has been hanging out for days. The DiG$ still hasn't made clear which one will be performing better during the next half year, gold or stocks, and stocks continue to be as overbought as Gargantua's underdrawers.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rose today 18 basis points, so it has bounced off 82.50. Dollar probably has a few more down days, but then expect to see it rallying more.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is making moves so tiny you need a 10 power glass to see them. When markets wind themselves into knots this tight, there will come a big breakout up or down. Count on it.

I still have a few Mexican two peso gold coins left at $34.65 each, minimum order 10. Y'all know that the Mex 2 peso is one of the world's smallest gold coins at 0.0482 troy ounce, nearly the same size as the old US $1 gold piece. If you're looking for survival pieces, here they are. Leave a message on (888) 218-9226. (Please mention goldprice.org when you call.)

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Silver & Gold Have Nothing to be Proud About Today

SILVER & GOLD have nothing to be proud about today. Theirs was just a miserable performance, & they've dropped more in the aftermarket. Silver's 200 day moving average is only 20 cents below it at 1299; gold's is at 641.90. Silver's momentum indicators look ready to roll over. Today showed a lack of conviction, or some heavy selling by somebody. Both look ready to retreat once again tomorrow.

STOCKS didn't exactly shine today, either. The Dow dropped (as of this writing before the close) 86.98 and the S&P proportionally more at 13.84. (Wait, wait. In the last 30 minutes of the market day, while I was writing this, the Dow dropped another 64.54 points for a total 151.52 for the day, and the S&P dropped a total of 21.12 points. That brings the closing Dow in Gold Dollars down to G4424.84, a break below G$425 support. Stocks are looking weaker & weaker against gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX fell another 18.4 basis points, so there wan't any help from that quarter, either. Looks like the buck wants to fall all the way to 82.40.

The Japanese Yen rose 33 basis points today, which might account for everything sickening. With the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates artificially low, hedge funds find it profitable to borrow yen & invest the proceeds in more remunerative investments. Profitable? Nay, it's free money, just back up the truck. You borrow yen at less than 1% & invest in US gov't bonds at 5%. Or you invest in the stock market. Worst thing that can happen is -- the yen rises. When this yen carry trade comes unravelled, O, 'twill be a fast dance indeed.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Silver & Gold Both Looked Smart Today

SILVER & GOLD both looked smart today. Gold broke out of its low-450s doldrums, while silver o'erleapt 1325. Good, now improve upon it. Gold won't be out of jeopardy until it crosses 667, then 672. Silver wants to see 1425 again to call herself safe. Real fighting will begin around 672 & 1385. Watch for it, because the possibility remains that a major correction lies ahead, although with a bull market you have to expect an upside resolution.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is not doing itself any favours, falling 15 basis points a day. Rapidly it reacheth the point of no return. Remember that 82.35 is the strong support/resistance level. A close below that turns the dollar into a lead balloon.

Why does everything seem so equivocal lately? Stocks rose a nothing amount today in the Dow & S&P 500, but as many indices fell as rose. Confusion. Bewilderment. Confused markets usually don't rise. If I held stocks, I would swap stocks for silver & gold.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS sank today to G$426.82 (20.647 oz), roughly the G$425 support level. This is not equivocal, but moving in the direction I want to see. Yet it must follow through with lower prices & a close below G$415 (20.076 oz) support.

Rain! Rain! Thank God in heaven, we got rain last night. My 70 year old neighbour told me that this is the worst drought he can ever remember.

My wife & all the ladies in my family are taking their summer vacation, & I had to go to the grocery store today. I seldom go, & when I do I only go to sneak neat stuff into my wife's basket, but today I had to read the menu from the right hand side. It's ruinous! How can people pay those prices and live? And I didn't buy any meat.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 18, 2007

We are Probably Seeing Seasonal Lows for Gold and Silver Right Here

SILVER & GOLD contradicted each other today, with gold piddlin' up and silver piddlin' down. Neither has moved enough to enable us to say that it has turned up. The only reason metals seem strong to me as I watch them here is not that they are moving so strongly up, but that they are refusing to move down. I keep reading people who are turning pessimists on silver & gold, but so far I don't feel inclined to join them. Yes, there are many potentially bad storms on their horizons, but bull markets always climb a wall of worry. Stick, with them. We are probably seeing seasonal lows right here.

The Dow in Gold Dollars continues to tantalize uswithout giving a clear indication which way it will move next. Today it dropped to G$429.10 (20.758 troy ounce), still equivocal. It needs to break thru G$436 (21.092 oz) to turn up, or below G$415 (20.076 troy oz) to turn down.

For new subscribers, an explanation. The "Dow in Gold Dollars" is the Dow measured in "dollars of gold," that is, statutory dollars of gold according to the Gold Standard Act of 1900: 0.048375 troy ounce fine gold. I state it that way because it gives us one unchanging measure of the Dow back to its start in 1896. I also state it in ounces so that y'all who don't share my mania for monetary probity can also understand.

The Dow backed off Friday's near brush with its old high, potentially creating a double top. Never mind: I don't want to own stocks. Swap stocks for silver & gold.

The US Dollar index fell again today, to 82.716 Its rally attempt was turned back and it fell to the lows of the day. Yet that 82.70-ish level is still a breakout over 82.35 resistance, so after a correction the buck will start climbing again, unless it closes below 82.35.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is oscillating tightly around its 200 day moving average. It must break 48.67 to break down. It will.

Whoa! I have way more little Mexican two peso gold coins than I need. They only contain a little less than twentieth of an ounce of gold (0.0482). I have 340 only & will sell them in lots of 10 or more for $34.65 each, plus shipping. Sorry, first come, first served, & no re-orders at this price. Leave a call on our answering machine at (888) 218-9226 & tell us how many you want. (Please mention goldprice.org when you place your order) Remember, ten pieces is the minimum order.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 15, 2007

Gold & Silver are Stuck in Trading Ranges- The Longer They Stay There, the More Likely They Will Fall & Correct Before Rallying

Let's tally up for the week, then look more closely. Both SILVER & GOLD rose this week, but so did stocks and the dollar. In fact, everything but platinum rose this week. So much for the lockstep relation between the dollar and precious metals.

GOLD & SILVER are stuck in trading ranges, & the longer they stay there, the more likely they will fall & correct before they rally. Odd, isn't it, that both keep on refusing to drop further than they already have. But silver needs to close above 1325 & then 1340, while gold needs to clear 667. Since it's not the time of year for silver & gold to climb, in fact, the time of the seasonal lows, and since they've languished so long, it would be a perfect time for a rally to knock everyone's teeth out. But unless they begin climbing next week, both are locked in downtrends.

The moment of truth is coming soon for silver, which is forming a triangle. Shortly it will break out one way or the other, so there's liable to be some fun next week.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, which had promised so strongly to rally, broke through 82.35 last week & through 83 this week, and today fell 25.5 basis points, back to roughly where it stopped upon first breaking through 82.35. Take heart, it's a correction. Unless the buck breaks badly through 82.60, perhaps lower, it will climb higher yet.

Strangest story this week is the Dow in Gold Dollars. Last week, y'all will remember, after hitting G$431.51 (20.874 oz) on 30 May, a challenge of the standing G$436 (21.092 oz) high, the DiG$ fell all week, through G$425 support and down to G$415 (20.076 oz). From that perch, next stop is G$400. But the DiG$ didn't keep on falling, it shot back up on Friday to G$429.91 (20.800 oz), fell off Monday & Tuesday, then rose to G$429.97 (20.800 oz) on Wednesday, G$429.99 (20.801 oz) on Thursday, and G$430.79 (20.840 oz)today. At this level -- G$429 - G$431.51 -- stocks are struggling against a mighty headwind, & just don't have the strength to break through. Of course, if they do manage to break through, & breach G$436, then they'll run at least to that G$475 (22.978 oz) which marks the half-way point of stocks rise against gold 1982 - 1999. That would constitute a major correction of the whole move, after which stocks will begin falling against gold yet again.

To give you a proper idea how overvalued against gold stocks really are (even though they have already fallen from G$925.42 in 1999 to G$430.78 today), think about this: Stocks today are only G$49.61 (2.400 oz) higher than their high in 1929! Yes, you read that right. In 78 years, stocks have managed to gain less than 2-1/2 ounces on their 1929 high. And, in the last 4 months, the Dow has been below that 1929 high. The 1932 low was G$41.63 (2.01 ounces). I expect that before this gold bull market/stock bear market ends, y'all will again see the Dow selling for four ounces or less. That's why I keep on telling y'all to swap stocks for silver & gold. (Against silver, the Dow should fall to 18 oz or less.)

Ponder this, attentive ones: a flurry of hand-wringing,wailing, moaning, & crying has been going on lately because (1) the dollar is rising & (2) interest rates are rising. This, the wailing, moaning, growning hand-wringers tell us, will drive down silver & gold. Don't be ridiculous. The Dollar was conceived in inflation, raised in inflation, and wallows yet in inflation. There's as much chance that inflation will stop as there is of my being elected Grand Poobah of the Faithful Order of Raccoons. Second, go back & look at interest rates in the late 1970s, when gold hit its last bull market peak. Tell me whether they were falling or rising -- hint: they were rising.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 14, 2007

Serious Money Is Buying Silver & Gold

SILVER rose today, but remained in the same range it has been stuck in. Ditto for GOLD. I would go to sleep except for one thing: the premium on US 90% silver coin rose by five cents an ounce. The wholesale buy side has ranged from a 65 to 60 cent an ounce discount for months and months. A couple of days ago it rose from -65 cents to -60 cents, & today to -55 cents. Goodness, I know that seems a small thing, but it's not. It shows buying pressure on the physical market. I am always dubious about any rally that doesn't begin with the 90% coin premium relatively high. Seeing it strengthen here makes me optimistic. This has happened against a backdrop of greatly increased demand here in our office, after a lull weeks long. Serious money is buying silver & gold.

STOCKS gained today, but all at once in the morning. After that they stayed flat, & the Dow closed below its 2 hour moving average. Mmmm . . . Volatility. I noticed today the S&P500 at 1,523 when a few days ago it was below 1,500. Think of somebody shaky, walking on a cane. That's the way the stock market feels, rushing first this way, then that. Oh. 'Twill be painful when it falls. Best thing to do would be to swap stocks for silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX held onto its above-83 gains to close today at 83.102. If it can fight through 83.50- 83.75, it will scare the shorts silly and run away for a romp -- yet only a romp, the same sort of romp a freshly dead toad makes when you hook him up to a 12 volt car battery. It might cause silver & gold a problem for a few months, perhaps half a year, but there's no fundamental change lurking there.

The Fed & the US Government are destroying the US dollar. That can't change, so stick with silver & gold.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 13, 2007

The Gold Price Went Sideways Today, & Gave us Nothing New to Go On

SILVER dropped today all the way down to 1281, then recovered to close above 1301. Since May silver has made three forays into that area, each a little higher than the last. This is either very bad or very good. We'll call it good if silver closes higher tomorrow.

The Gold Price went sideways today, & gave us nothing new to to go on. Until it makes a big move one way or the other, I can only keep saying, "It's ready, it's ready." Gold coin premiums are creeping upward, not by much, but even very subtle changes -- 1/4 of 1% -- point to buying pressure, so demand is strong for physical gold, the real kind, the kind you have to put up 100% of the money for, not the margined-derivatived-leveraged paper kind. To me, that kind of demand has more garlic in it.

Today's market offers a piercing example why it is so hard to short stocks, even though you are "sure" that they have topped. The Dow came back 187 points today -- rough treatment if you're short. Today also offered us an example of the strange mathematics of the Dow in Gold Dollars. At the Comex close gold had dropped 30 cents today, nothing at all. Yet the DiG$ rocketed up G$6.22 (0.301 oz) because while gold was steady, the Dow rose sharply. So here we are, still without a decisive breakout in the Dow in Gold Dollars, up or down. It closed again today at G$429.97, a double top with late May's highs. The DiG$ is beginning to resemble its pattern last October, when it put in a double top before failing -- in fact, a double top in the same area. This will unfold plainly in the next few days, either failing here or moving higher.

Why is that important? It will tell us which will perform better over the next 6 months or so, stocks or gold. Need I add that I expect gold to outshine stocks? Why, I would even swap stocks for silver & gold.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 12, 2007

The Momentum Indicators Want Silver to Turn Up

SILVER dropped a bit more than GOLD today, but dropped only to 1298 & closed over 1300. Silver is not far from its 200 DMA at 1289, & its 300 DMA at 1261. It acts like it may drop more, but the momentum indicators want silver to turn up. Come to think of it, since March silver has made a series of higher lows (1249, 1276, 1298) with two lower highs. That's a triangle, cranking tighter and tighter to break out -- but which direction? It's a bull market, so main chance lies with up.

GOLD seems drawn to its 200 DMA at 637.29 & that support area at 635. Again, though, the momentum indicators are hinting at rising.

You know, I think back over this bull market so far, & we've seen several frustrating periods like this, when prices went sidewise or looked weak so long that at last people began to think silver & gold were going to crash & there wasn't a bull market after all. Looking back over that time, I don't now regret recommending to a single person to buy & then finding it dropped. No, what I regret are the people I told to "Wait" right before the market took off upward, and we waited, & waited, and waited, and never got in. As I said yesterday, in a bull market the best strategy is to get long, hold tight, and get longer.

As I noted yesterday about the Dow, I don't like double closes. Today the Dow fell 130 points. All the indices dropped, & the S&P500 landed on its face below the psychologically important 1500 level. The Dow traded today in a corrective pattern as it rose, then couldn't hold its gains and broke to new lows at the end of the day. No reason to hope for higher prices tomorrow, but every reason to swap stocks for silver & gold. Dow is now approaching its 50 day moving average at 13,153 (could reach that tomorrow), and not far from its 200 DMA at 12,411.85.

Despite gold's poor showing today, the Dow in Gold Dollars fell further, to G$423.80 (20.501 oz) from yesterday's G$424.15 (20.518 oz). It's sitting right on the 17 DMA (G$423.56), first tripwire for further falls. Odd -- here's a rare example of the different mathematics that can affect the DiG$: both gold and the Dow are falling, but stocks are falling faster so the DiG$ falls.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today closed up 23.8 basis points at 82.934, which clinches its breakout. A close above 83 will send the shorts scurrying.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 11, 2007

Gold & Silver Bounced Back Very Nicely Today

GOLD & SILVER bounced back very nicely today, but gold still needs to close over 660 and then keep marching. Thinking about silver today I went back to look at its performance against the 300 day moving average. Interesting. Only once since 2003 has silver broken that 300 DMA, and that was in August 2005, right before silver took off for a huge rally into 1500. Today the 300 DMA stands at 1260.

Thinking about this baffling market, I keep on coming back to the same truth: in a bull market, the best strategy is to get long, stay long, and get longer. Be patient. Keep on buying. Higher silver & gold prices are coming, whether next week or next month or next year. Don't let impatience play you for a sucker.

I don't like double closes. That is, if I were a fan of stocks & bullish on them (which I am not, any more than a Rhode Island Red is a fan of Kentucky Fried Chicken), I would turn green around the gills looking at today's Dow close, up a gigantic 0.57 point against Friday. Double closes do not always but often seem to mark tops. More, stocks today rallied all day, working to a high of 13,478.11, but fell off at the close. Bad juju. Makes you hear tom-toms in the background. Ominous. Swap stocks for silver & gold.

After last Friday's performance, closing at G$429, I wondered what the Dow in Gold Dollars would tell us today. It fell back to G$424.15 (20.518 oz). It still hasn't given us an unequivocal signal yet. That would require a close above G$436 (21.092) or a close below G$415(20.076 oz), but it appears headed for that G$414 sooner. That means gold will be outperforming stocks for quite a while to come.

The US DOLLAR INDEX held on to Friday's breakout gains, closing at 82.696. Having jumped the fence at 82.35, the dollar is now free to rally for several months. Look for it.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 08, 2007

A Gold Close Below 625 Would Bring Much Lower Prices, A Close above 672 Would Carry Higher

Gold Price Close Last Week : 671.20
Gold Price Close This Week: 645.50
Change: -25.70 or -3.8%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1368.1
Silver Price Close This Week: 1299.9
Change: -68.20 cents or -5%

All in all, it was a pretty dark week, but let's shine a little light on it and see how ugly it really was.

The end week prices don't quite tell the take. The US DOLLAR INDEX only rose 0.4%, but in the meantime it made a trip down to 81.88, & came back in one day & punched clean through 82.35 resistance. The buck now has a clean interest rate advantage over the rest of the corrupt fiat currencies, so when every apple is rotten, the least putrefied one looks best. Dollar's rally should last a while.

STOCKS took a beating this week on fears of higher interest rates. But wait -- what wondrous event played out before our eyes today?! After a flat morning, suddenly at 1:00 as one stock market players all began buying -- or somebody did -- & so closed up 147 points for the day, all earned in the last 3 hours. Can anybody see fingerprints here? Do they look like they belong to Nice Government Men? Like King Canute commanding the ocean to back off, so the NGM stand in the way of markets. Yes, for a while they can pull it off, but one day the tide will rise, & the tips of their noses will sink, unlamented & unmourned, beneath the waves.

Was this week's break the "Big One" for stocks? First, rising stocks now flies in the face of the seasonal pattern, but that in itself doesn't stand in stocks way. This year could be an exception. Worse for stocks is the persistently, insanely overbought market conditions. Nuts. Stocks could just keep on falling from here, or make another feint toward the last top (13,690) and then fall off. Either way, the tide (season) & time (too long overbought) are working against them. Long term, they will be pitifully, monstrously outperformed by silver & gold. Hence my frequent admonition to swap stocks for silver & gold.

My greater worry short term is the Dow In Gold Dollars. This week it fell away from its try toward the old high as if it had been beaten indeed -- fell to support at G$415 (20.076 oz), but today worked toward contradicting that weakness when the DiG$ shot back up to G$429 (20.753 oz). It could blast past the old high at G$436 (21.092 oz), or it could fail there. Whichever happens, 'twill determine the course of stocks against gold for six months or so. The long term trend, however, of stocks against gold, remains down, down, down, until it reaches $G$41.34 (2.000 oz) or lower.

GOLD fell out of its trading channel in May, but wasn't clear whether it would climb back in or not. The last few days' falling away make evident it will not climb back in until it does more penance. Beneath it are nested support around 635 and the 200 day moving average (now 637). If it doesn't stop there, it could drop to 600 or even 550. We ought also to bear in mind that this present up & down could be gold winding up for another challenge of 720, & that's not just me as a gold bug trying to talk my position. It will take a week to two weeks for gold to sort itself out. In the meantime, a close below 625 would bring much lower prices, a close above 672 would carry higher.

SILVER -- interestingly enough -- isn't in the same case as gold. Silver hasn't fallen out of its upward trading channel, but rests on the bottom line, right above its 200 day moving average (1287.3 today). Silver could be sucked down along with gold, but for right now it looks strong. I say that thinking about gold, because the GOLD/SILVER RATIO chart has formed a bearish rising wedge, which threatens to break out to the downside soon. That means silver gaining value against gold, which generally is bullish for both metals. However, the same mathematical result could also be reached by silver's standing still while gold falls.

Am I crazy? Even if a major silver & gold correction are coming (gold to 550 & silver to 1100), I still expect we will see higher prices first, a test of the 2006 highs at 720 and 1500. Rally or not, correction or not, the best strategy in a bull market remains get long, stay long, and get longer. Buy, and keep on buying every time the market gives you a chance, because long term, silver & gold are going much, much higher.

Thank God it rained here today, the first time in so many weeks I can't remember! Our pastures look like they've been blowtorched. Maybe this rain will green them up again.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 07, 2007

A Trip to 635 Looks Likely, Unless Gold Scrabbles & Holds Here

SILVER fell to its 50 day moving average, and could still pull things out & turn around. GOLD's chart looks terrible, like a rally back to where it fell out of the channel, followed by failure. A trip to 635 looks likely, unless gold scrabbles & holds here. Today presents you with either a great buying opportunity, or a warning of lower prices. The market will probably make clear which tomorrow.

Big story today was plunging bonds. The wave of inflation around the world and the secular bear market in bonds threatens to raise interest rates and wreck stock market hopes (higher rates mean higher costs for businesses). Remember that interest rates & bond prices move opposite to each other, so when rates rise, bond prices fall. The 2 year Treasury reached 5%, and the 30 year reached 5.18%.

Higher rates are widely perceived as bad for gold, so that helps explains the hit metals took today, too. (By the way, "high interest rates" per se are not necessarily bearish for gold. Very high short term rates, for example, indicate high inflation & are therefore good for gold. Gold does move inversely to interest rates, but to real interest rates, that is, the interest rate less the inflation rate. But wherever high rates reflect high inflation, that's good for gold.)

The world is awash under a tidal wave of inflation. Sooner or later central banks will have to raise interest rates to protect the value of their currencies. The Euro central bank raised rates yesterday, then this morning tiny New Zealand raised rates. It was the mouse bark that frightened the elephant, as panic hit already weak bond markets. Look at the chart for yields or bond prices (remember they move inversely). Bonds gapped down today -- bad juju. whoops -- Did I forget to mention what higher interest rates would do to mortgages, & thus the home building industry, & thus a huge chunk of the economy?

The Dow puked up might near 200 points. Whoops. I warned y'all it would come down fast when it came down. This is only a beginning. But trying to pierce the veil of momentary events, we look at the Dow in Gold Dollars, & see that even with a 9.20 gold fall, the DiG$ still dropped today because stocks fell further. The DiG$ has eaten most of its way through G$415 - G$417 resistance.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Gold Needs to Close Over 670 Tomorrow

With lows today at 1359, silver still fought off two attempts to drive it down and ended the day down only 3/10 of a cent. Gold's chart for this week looks crummy & weak. It needs to close over 670 tomorrow. On the positive side gold did fight off an attack that dragged it as low as 664.60. This boils down to a nail-biter. Metals will, I believe, pull out & gain more, but they are running into a strong headwind.

Since the Dow in Gold Dollars has once again proven itself the most reliable indicator in the universe, let us focus first thereupon. Today it fell from G$419.73(20.304 oz) to G$415.90 (20.119 oz) -- back to the G$415-- G$417 support/resistance. So far the DiG$ has tracked perfectly what it would track if stocks were about to begin dropping against gold. Today's follow-thru just ices the cake. A close below G$415 closes the case, far's I'm concerned.

The Dow & other indices were hammered today, the Dow falling 129.79 and the S&P falling 13.57. The Dow has closed below its 17 day moving average, the first tripwire for a decline. Blood could make the footing very slippery here. I claim no expertise nor wisdom, but I would swap stocks for silver & gold. Fast.

In the face of the European Central Bank's raising interest rates the US Dollar Index fell off a bit, but very little. The $ has caught just below where it has caught before, but still looks peaked & sickly. Stay away. Shuck dollar paying assets for silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 05, 2007

Silver Refuses to Go Down with Gold -Non-confirmation Positive for Both Metals

Today SILVER & GOLD contradicted (in English "gainsaid") each other: gold closed US$1.10 down, while silver rose again, 7.10 cents. Is gold gainsaying silver, or is silver contradicting gold? Because both metals have only recently turned up, because silver has been so strong, with several 20 cent up days, & because silver is unequivocally strong while gold is barely weak, I interpret the non-confirmation as positive for both metals, with silver refusing to go down with gold. If I'm right, then both metals will move up the rest of the week.

Staring at that GOLD/SILVER RATIO chart, I got the sudden impression that the ratio is about to drop off a cliff. As soon as it breaks 48.25 (about 40 basis points lower) it will hit air & drop like a hammer on your bunion. Next big stop is below 35:1, so if you ever want to make a gold/silver swap,
better do it now.

On 30 May I wrote, "If the DiG$ stalls at G$436, then fails by closing below G$425, then G$415, it will be Katy-bar-the-door for gold, & it will rally all summer." Perhaps the "all summer" was a tadge generous, but against stocks gold will certain rally. Today the DiG$ closed below G$420 at G$419.73 (20.30 oz), headed for support at G$415. What I envisioned on 30 May was the DiG$ dropping very sharply from that strong barrier at G$436, and drop sharply it has. We still need that last confirmation of a close below G$415 (20.076 oz) to close the argument, but with the Dow closing down 80 points today & gold holding firm, that looks likely.

Stocks themselves are crazy. The close today below 13,600 was a nasty psychological blow, but it might not be correction time yet. By the way, when stocks finally do break, whether now or 2 months hence, twill be a bloody disaster, 20% or more in a short time. Be warned: swap stocks for silver & gold. Non-confirmations occur when two indicators contradict each other; they can be bullish or bearish.

US DOLLAR INDEX fell through 82 today like it was a trap door, and closed below 81.90 at 81.875. It looks weak -- couldn't stay above its 50 day moving average, couldn't pierce 82.35. The May low was 81.25, and it will probably re-visit that shortly. If it closes below 81.25, it could sink to 80.50. All this is consistent with, but not necessary for, a silver & gold rally.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 04, 2007

Silver & Gold Prices Should Move Up The Rest of the Week

As I expected SILVER & GOLD both suffered attacks from shorts today, but in an astonishingly narrow range -- for silver, 13 cents, for gold US$5.25. Although neither gained ground, I interpret this a strength. Silver & gold prices should move up the rest of the week.

Y'all keep your eyes on the horizon. I've said many times that you have to keep on reminding yourself of the long term goal when you are investing. Same thing goes for everything in your life: keep your eyes on the long term goal.

I would buy gold & silver here, but most people won't. They'll wait until they break out over 720 & 1500, but they won't buy here, and they wouldn't buy when it dipped. Perfect prices don't exist. In a long term bull market, the best strategy is to buy and keep on buying.

By the way, the European Central Bank's announcement last week that they would not sell any more gold this year was the news event that proved a bottom in silver & gold. Why the Euros are fighting with the Fed is a story for another time.

In 1993 for Jim Blanchard I edited & wrote large parts of Silver Bonanza. It's the best investment book on silver ever written (I can say that because there were so many great contributors). But after self-publishing, Blanchard sold the rights to Simon & Shuster & the editors there did a "history-ectomy" on the book, deleting the first 60 pages of silver's history, the pages that make silver's whole story understandable. I still have some copies of the first edition, & sell them on my website for $37. A couple of days ago in our book storage I found three copies badly water damaged on about an eighth of the corner -- looks ratty, but still quite readable. If any of you would like a copy for $7.50 (about the shipping cost), call me at (888)218-9226. I only have three copies, so first come, first served.

Stocks continue astonishingly, shockingly over-bought. Yet today by a few points reached a new high. Not so the Dow in Gold Dollars, which measures stocks' performance against real money -- gold. Remember last week the DiG$ challenged its old high at G$436 (21.09 oz), failed, then fell thru G$425 (20.559 oz) support to G$420.95 (20.364 oz) and today rose only to G$421.52 (20.385 oz). Will it fall further, to G$415 support? If so, it will help clinch the case for gold outperforming stocks in the near future -- and hint that stocks' long run is over.

I won't try to be subtle: swap stocks for silver & gold. The US DOLLAR INDEX tumbled badly today, back to 82 support, after spending nearly two weeks fumbling around, fecklessly trying to push through 82.35 support. If it closes much below 82, it's buying a ticket to re-visit old lows around 80.50.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 01, 2007

The Silver Price Rose 5.8% and the Gold Price 2.5% This Week

Gold Price Close Last Week : 655.10
Gold Price Close This Week: 671.20
Change: 16.10 or 2.5%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1293
Silver Price Close This Week: 1368.1
Change: 75.10 cents or 5.8%

The SILVER PRICE rose 5.8% this week and had three 20+ cent days out of four. Not bad, I'd say. It blasted through 1305 first, then never even looked at 1325-1330, but cleared them and closed just under 1350. Today it o'erlept that barrier, too. Today's close cleared the 50DMA (1340.3), the last hurdle.

The GOLD PRICE began slow & sickly, then closed the week up 2.5% & above the dreaded 667 resistance. There's a little resistance at 672, but the next big wall between gold & 720 is the old high at 692. Once thru 692, gold will run for 720. Of course, it's always possible to misinterpret a market at trend changes & after a long correction, but right now silver & gold have everything right. Unless they close below 1340 & 653, they will run farther & higher. Right now I am lookin for something unusual for both metals: a strong summer.

Next week will probably see an attack against metals on Monday, which they should fend off with one hand, then rise the rest of the week. I am buying both silver & gold now.

Here's a bit of esoterica that only y'all & I & the few other folks who watch the Dow in Gold will understand. Today the Dow made a new all time high, but measured by the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$), it actually sank today from its Wednesday close at G$431.51 (20.874 oz) to G$420.95 (20.364 oz.) Of yet greater import & weight were the resistance/support levels it touched in the process. Even with the Dow at an all time high & gold correcting, the DiG$ failed to reach the last significant high at G$436 (21.01 oz), then turned down and fell through support at G$425.

That flashes a bright message: gold has turned against stocks. Gold will start gaining on stocks. What would negate this conclusion? A DiG$ close above G$436 (21.01 oz). Recall that for the last 11 years, the DiG$ has been the very most reliable indicator of how stocks & gold will acquit themselves. The lesson? Swap stocks for silver & gold, and stay swapped for the rest of the bull market.

By the way, the Dow in Silver ounces sank below 1,000 oz this week, and lost a whopping 4.3%. The DiSoz has been just as reliable as the DiG$: silver is about to outperform stocks for a long time. Only a close above 1,107 would negate that.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped 3.2% this week, & now stands below its 17 day moving average (50.59) its 50 DMA (50.10), & its 200 DMA (49.60), closing today at 49.061. All those moving averages are headed down, too. Since the ratio usually falls when silver & gold are rising, this indicator is flashing "Higher prices" for silver & gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, having risen to resistance at 82.35, has been unable for the last week to do anything about it. It rises a few basis points, then falls right back. I still believe it's going higher, but any close under 82, then 81.50 would bring new lows.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.