Buy Gold and Silver How to Buy Gold How to Buy Silver Gold Commentary

Monday, July 30, 2007

Silver & Gold Prices Rose Nicely Today - Just Enough to Show so far They Refuse to go Lower

SILVER & GOLD PRICES rose nicely today, but not in any decisive manner -- just enough to show so far they refuse to go lower. I think we saw the lows last week, and now is the time to start buying both -- especially silver -- with both hands. Silver is forming a bullish falling wedge on the chart.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO has refused to move above 52, and can't pierce the upper channel line. Break down from here should be spectacular, which is an upside down way of saying a big silver rally loometh.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today dropped back 18.5 basis points, unable to hold onto its seat over 81 at this first try. Remains to be seen whether it can climb over 81 in the second try. Jury's still out on whether the Dollar will rally or sink through 80. You know, it's really a pretty good joke on all of us. We sit around wondering what the US dollar's worth, while the Nice Government Men must be laughing their vests off at all us fools who don't understand the dollar's worth nothing at all, except the confidence we give it.

'Tis hard to keep remembering to look not at the seen but the unseen. All the Gurus & Gurettes (and the rest of the Establishment flatters & hangers-on ) today were crowing about stocks' gains. Sounded a mite hollow to me, since I looked at the Dow in GOLD Dollars. From Friday to until today the Dow rose a magnificent 32 gold cents (0.014 troy ounce). When you look at the unseen rather than the seen, it turns out you're not seeing much.

August is my vacation month, so I will only be posting commentaries on Fridays during August. Rest of the time I will be performing hard manual labour so my mind will work better the rest of the year. Our office will remain open to help you, except I won't be around.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, July 27, 2007

If Gold and Silver Were Good Buys at 680 & 1330, They are Great Buys at 1264 & 660

Gold Price Close Last Week : 683.90
Gold Price Close This Week: 660.00
Change: -23.90 or -3.5%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1331.5
Silver Price Close This Week: 1264.3
Change: -67.20 cents or -5.0%

Outlandish as it may sound in y'all's ears, the drop in Silver & Gold Prices this week make me more and not less bullish on both. If they were good buys at 680 & 1330, they are great buys at 1264 & 660.

This reaction has carried both down to a 61.8% correction of their latest highs. Yesterday's silver low was 1266, today's was 1267. Good. Silver's 300 day moving average stands at 1262, & today silver touched off that 300 DMA for the second time since June, and only the third time since this bull market began in earnest.

Yes, I know yesterday's drop made y'all want to reach for your wastebasket to puke in it, but that's exactly the time you have to discipline yourself to think, and to buy. Gold has also reached its 200 DMA, a great time to buy because bull markets spend almost all their time above their 300 DMAs.

Several readers have e-mailed asking why gold has followed stocks down, since stocks & gold (they thought) moved opposite to each other. Answer is, they do move opposite each other, but over time, not every day. Since August 2000 the Dow has dropped about 50% against gold, but this week they moved together. Why? If gold is money & panicking people are fleeing to safety, why not to gold? First, the dollar & not gold is the major currency in this country, so you ought to expect people to flee to it first. Second, when panic hits, people sell everything, trying to raise dollars. If they have to meet stock margin calls, they'll sell gold, so it's not surprising to see gold follow stocks down in the first downdraft. Just be patient: the bull market in gold (and silver) is just beginning. The really wild waves lie just in front of us.

The Dow & other stock indices dropped spectacularly this week, but in fact didn't do worse than precious metals, except for gold. But the resemblance stops there, because metals (especially silver) are much more volatile than stock indices. The S&P lost five months' gains in one week, nearly 6% from the high.The Dow lost 677.95 points this week alone, & 735 points from its all time high last Thursday. Methinks the top is in. Swap stocks for silver & gold.

The Dow in Gold Dollars fell again today, to G$415.49 (20.010 oz). Stocks are headed much, much lower against gold. Get out while you still have time.

The US DOLLAR INDEX has risen nearly 100 basis points in the last three (3) days. It begins to meet resistance at 81.25, then 81.70, and a big brick wall at 82.35. It is not clear yet whether the dollar is rallying, or just bouncing off 38-year support at 80 before it drops through the floor to 78.

Pondering the stock market last night, it was almost as if I had a vision (I didn't, but it seemed that way). In front of me spread the whole economy, like paper dolls. In fact, it was paper dolls, and above them all stood carnival barkers who looked just like Bush & Paulson & Bernanke, shouting, "They're real! They're real! They're real!"

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, July 26, 2007

If Silver and Gold Break No Further Than Todays Lows They are Strong & Should Recover

Silver and Gold Price lows were 1266 & 654.30, so the closes (12.878 and 662.50) really weren't so bad or so far out of range. For now, I'll wait and see what silver & gold do, but if they break no further than this (and on a panic day at that), then they are strong & should shortly recover. Watch today's lows and today's closes. If silver & gold have scraped their bottom here, those numbers should hold.

Interesting -- the US Dollar fell today, too. The Nice Government Men let it drop clean to 80, now they need to get busy rehabilitating the buck. The dollar could still drop below 80, until it proves a rally with a close above 82.35.

The debacle in today's stock market was so terrible that the Nice Government Men trotted out Treasury Secretary Paulson to fire their main weapon, the Blarney Cannon. He solmenly intoned that sub prime issues "would be largely contained." Yes, O, Yes. Right. Ha. Ha. HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Nobody said how bad this drop was. At the low the Dow was down 449 points (3.3%), & the S&P 500 dropped waaaay under 1,500 to close at 1,486. I can't remember exactly, but this is one of the worst single day drops since the 1998 LTCM crisis. Something very bad is happening behind the curtains, subprime mortgage securities-wise.

Technically stocks will be in big trouble when the Dow breaks 13,250. Bear in mind that when markets rise fast, they also fall fast.

The Dow in Gold Dollars broke G$415 on Tuesday, ran back to G$423 yesterday, & today closed at G$420.41 (20.337 oz). The suspense is over. Stocks' back has broken, & they will drop against gold for a long, long time. Only a close above G$436 (21.091 oz)would contradict that.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Silver & Gold Have Now Reached Their Crisis Point - They Must Clear Resistance Here.

SILVER & GOLD PRICES rose well today, yet not quite enough to unquestionably break through the downtrend lines containing them. I expect resistance for gold from 684 all the way to the old high at 692. Silver is trying to work up strength to burst through 1350 and then 1380.

Silver & gold have now reached their crisis point. They must clear resistance here, or fall back in a correction that will last nearly six months. My guess is that they will continue upward, but the market will speak for itself. If they break through 1400 and 692, I expect the 2006 highs at 1486 and 720 to be breached, followed by a rally that smashes thru every barrier in its way.

Silver's 50 & 200 day moving averages have kissed. In the past that is a prime signal of a coming huge rally.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO is acting as it should if a rally is on the way. It should begin dropping soon.

The US DOLLAR continues to make new lows. Today gold continued its rise against the Euro, nearly clearing 500.

Big, big news today: The Dow in Gold Dollars closed at G$414.43 920.20 oz), below critical G$415 support. More, the DiG$ has fallen clean out of the trading channel, moved back to test the channel, then fallen down again. Barring a close above G$415, that's it. You've got your signal that stocks have turned down against gold & wil continue down for the foreseeable future.

The DOW today took stocks to 13,701 at its low, a hair away from critical 13,700 support. Watch for the Dow to drop further tomorrow. All stock indices dropped today, heavily. The S&P is only 11 points above psychological support at 1,500. Stocks are looking a lot like they've topped for the year. Continuing to plead & beg. I urge y'all to swap stocks for silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, July 23, 2007

Silver & Gold Correction could last 2-3 days. Great Buying Opportunity

'Twould be a bad idea to conclude the rally in the Silver & Gold price was founded only upon the US Dollar's drop. Ponder, say, gold in Euros, which bottomed earlier in July at 474.80 euros & hath climbed since above its 50 & 200 DMAs to scare 500 euros to death, while the dollar wallows in despair against the euro. Against the yen gold either has broken out or is about to. Silver's performance against these two currencies isn't quite as unquestionable yet, but silver's moving up against both. So the rally in silver & gold is not merely a reaction to the sliding dollar alone, but a climb across the board.

SILVER & GOLD dropped back today, as I expected on Friday. No harm done, as long as silver remains above 1300 and gold above 670. Correction could last two to three days, & offers y'all a great opportunity to buy.

Stocks bounced up today, all the indices, but we were not impressed. May get one more push higher, but there's not much more upside in stocks. Swap stocks for silver & gold -- I think both metalshave at last turned up against stocks, although they need to climb just a leetle more to confirm that.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, July 20, 2007

Gold & Silver Were Both Star Players this Week

Gold Price Close Last Week : 666.70
Gold Price Close This Week: 683.90
Change: 17.20 or 2.6%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1307.8
Silver Price Close This Week: 1331.5
Change: 23.70 cents or 1.8%

End of the week resembles the scoreboard at a foot-ball game. Only thing that counts is who scores the most. With that in mind, 'twas an interesting week. Silver & Gold both were star players this week, but gold surprised me by out-performing silver.

The Gold Price has reached the downtrend line from its May 2006 high. If it crosses that line, & stays crossed with a 2 day close, then one bodacious rally will bust loose. After big gains this week, a reaction back from that line early next week before another upward attack would not surprise me. By the way, last week -- Monday & Tuesday -- were an object lesson in the difference between a correction in an ongoing uptrend and a weak and sinking market. Gold begins to look as if it has already made seasonal lows & is beginning another huge leg up. However, that must be confirmed by closing above today's close, & above the old high at 692.

The Silver Price stands at the downtrend line from its Feb. 2007 high at 1459. A higher close means the rally will continue, but confirmation comes only with closing above that last 1459 high.

If silver and gold close next week higher than they did today, buy more. If they close above 692 & 1469, buy lots, lots more.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO seems to have made its high at 52. If you have any gold left that you want to swap for silver, you'd better do it in a hurry.

Although STOCKS hit four new highs, including yesterday's at 14,001.41, they have fallen since last week. In spite of a new Dow high, the Dow in Gold Dollars has fallen through two support levels & hovers now just above the Big One (G$415). The Great Samolean, the US DOLLAR, today dropped through its Dec. 2004 low, its lowest level since 1992.

The US DOLLAR INDEX has broken its Dec. 2004 low at 80.39 with an intraday low today of 80.117, the lowest since the 1992 78.19 low. Why is that significant? For the past 38 years the dollar's lower support has been 80, with that one 1992 spike toward 78. Below 78 there is -- nothing really, so there's no telling how low the dollar might fall if it pierces 80. The more likely case near term is a new dollar low somewhere between here & 78.20, one last leg down, & then a dollar rally for six months or a year. For now, step aside & let the buck seek its own level. You should long ago have shucked or hedged any investments or obligations that entitle you to be paid dollars in the future, including annuities, bonds, & pensions. Long term you want to owe dollars at most, not own them.

Technically the DOW put in a double top this week, & dropped today on higher volume -- not very positive. I measured a move to 14,100, & other indicators are not yet negative, so stocks could keep rising. Big story on Wall St. this week was Bear Stearnes writing off two huge hedge funds for billions of bucks. Sub-prime mortgage securities can harm your financial health. Nothing is changed by stocks' new highs. Swap stocks for silver & gold.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS had formed an upward wedge, which usually resolves downside, but after a false breakout it moved back up into the wedge. Then broke down again. Because the DiG$ failed to reach a new high this week when the Dow was making new all-time highs, and collapsing today through two support levels (G$425 & G$420) leads me to expect a change of trend soon in which silver & gold resume outperforming stocks by a large measure.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, July 19, 2007

If Gold Pierces 686-692 We Will Have A Monster Rally On Our Hands.

Wow! Did y'all see the GOLD PRICE today? Nor was silver far behind. Both gold and silver could do a little sideways correction here for a couple of days, but above here there's no barrier until 686 - 692. If gold pierces that level, we will have a monster rally on our hands.

SILVER PRICE stopped today in the 1325 - 1335 resistance area, and smack on the downtrend line from the February high at 1469. When it breaks thru, it will run to 14. Thinking about that 300 day moving average. Silver pierced that not long ago, then turned up again, a rare occurrence that usually happens before large, long rallies.

Buy silver and gold. Start now. I'm beginning to think we have passed the lows. Could be proven wrong, but it's worth taking a chance on. Next time silver hits 1500 & gold hits 720, they will break through.

The US Dollar Index rose a little today, but the dollar is diddling. Could have bottomed here, but more likely has another leg down in its future.

Stocks closed above psychologically 14,000 Dow today -- by 0.41. Wonder who helped that? Nice government men must be suffering a terrible quandary -- raise interest rates and save the buck while slapping stocks, or let the buck slide so stocks will rise and the illusion of prosperity continues? Strocks should still hit 14,100, but the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS fell again today, only slightly. This is the same chasing maneuver the DiG$ has been following for months, refusing to resolve in stocks' favour.Still looks like it is beginning a long drop to me.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, July 18, 2007

The Gold Price Should Run Higher From Here - The Big Hurdle Comes at $692

No doubt the GOLD PRICE today was buoyed by Bear Stearnes announcement that two of their hedge funds are now worthless after investing in sub-prime mortgage securities. securities. (Whoops! About those billions of dollars, well, uhhh, we lost them!) Gold rose 1.2%. But how do you explain silver rising 2.1%, on fears of the financial system melting down? Could it mean -- perish the thought -- that silver, like gold, is money, too? Anyway, silver & gold didn't rise on dollar weakness alone, since they rose against the Euro, too.

Spooky thing about the Bear Stearns mess is the drugged complacency on Wall Street. This scandal breaks, and the Dow keeps on rising. Apparently nobody there has ever heard of "derivatives," or they believe the sub-prime black-hole won't suck in anyone but Bear Stearns. Personally, I think a bit of old-fashioned panic is in order here -- not blood running in the streets, but at least a modest rush for liquidity & the door.

The gold price stands above all the moving averages I watch, so should run higher from here, but the big hurdle comes at 692. If gold clears that, look out above.

Today capped things for the SILVER PRICE. First it broke through 1305 resistance and it also cleared all moving averages. This should be a significant turnaround. Start buying silver. Now.

Ahh, the US DOLLAR! Today it flirted with 15 year lows, lower than December 2004's intraday 80.39, with a low today at 80.227. Closing at or near that Dec. 2004 low implies that the Samolean will take yet another leg down, but the close at 80.368 speaks with forked tongue. Yes, it's slightly lower than the old low, but many times markets exceed levels slightly without following through. In the aftermarket the buck has risen slightly. If it's going to fall, look for a big one tomorrow or the next day. By the way, the 38-year support for the Dollar index lies at 80, with only that 1992 spike below 80. Lows are 90.54 on 31 July 73; 82.07 on 31 Oct. 78; 85.33 on 31 Dec. 87; 80.34 on 28 Feb. 91; 70.19 on 30 Sept. 92; 80.05 on 30 April 95; 90.57 on 31 Oct. 98, & 80.39 at end-December 2004.

The US Dollar Index is now waaaay oversold, & nothing prevents it from becoming more oversold, but watch out for at least a snap-back rally from here, sudden & sharp.

In light of my remarks yesterday about the Dow's performance against silver & gold, Mike from Montana asked me how high the Dow would need to rise, with gold at US$664.70, to reach again the old DiG$ high of G$925.42. Brace yourselves: Dow 29,756.70. See what I mean about "perspective"?

There's an article y'all all need to read at itulip.com. Then you will understand why we can't all get rich buying each other's houses & selling ourselves into debt slavery to the banks.

STOCKS dropped across the board today, nearly every index. That's no big surprise, considering the gains of the last 4 days, but I wonder how much of that fall came from the Bear Stearns fears, & from Comrade Fed Chairman Ben "Drop Money Out Of Helicopters" Bernanke today before Congress. He poormouthed the housing sector & sub-prime lending.

More interesting today was the Dow in Gold Dollars, which closed at G$427.77 (20.694 oz), down G$6.70(0.324 oz.). It looked as if the DiG$ had made a false downside breakout out of its bearish rising wedge by trading up yesterday, but today it fell through its 17 day moving average, first harbinger of a fall. 50 DMA lies at G$424.36, very close. A close below that points very strongly to stocks moving lower against gold for the rest of the year. Close below G$415 confirms.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, July 17, 2007

As Long as Silver Holds 1285 & Gold Holds 662, the Rally Remains Unbroken

SILVER & GOLD have both disappointed me since Friday. Yes, they are correcting a leg up, but this lethargy may point to deeper weakness. Recall as well that silver & gold are wallowing in the midst of their seasonal time of lethargy, so this doesn't surprise us too much. As long as silver holds 1285 & gold holds 662, the rally remains unbroken.

Clearly, stocks lie uppermost on everybody's mind,so let us ponder stocks. According to the Minneapolis Fed's inflation calculator (& if you can't trust the Fed, who can you trust?), to equal its January 2000 high at 11,722.98, the Dow today would have to be 13989.97. At today's 13,971.55 close, the Dow is just now making up its 7-year loss to inflation. The S&P500's intraday high on 24 March 2000 was 1,552.87, but the all-time high close the same day was 1,527.46. Today's close was 1,549.37.

Life is often a matter of perspective. The Dow in Gold Dollars peaked 25 August 1999 at G$925.42. Today it closed at G$434.51. The Dow in Silver Ounces peaked 7 June 2001 at 2,566.04 ounces; today it closed at 1,083.07. Against gold, the Dow has lost 53% since 2000; against silver, the Dow has lost 58%.

Now that we have our minds and our denominator right, look more deeply at stocks. The Dow will probably move to 14,100 before this rally ends. Stocks may keep right on moving up after that, but the terrible erosion of their value against silver & gold over the past 7 years illustrates -- once you get the US dollar denominator out of the way -- that the primary trend is down for stocks against silver and gold.

The Dow in Gold Dollars next demands our attention. For the last 2 days its has closed over the 432.60 barrier, but even with 4 new Dow highs in as many days, it has only climbed to G$434.51, not yet to the old high at G$436. This turnaround came after a false breakdown out of a wedge, so odds are good the DiG$ will continue to climb. Oddly enough, if the Dow went to 14,100 and gold stayed at 665, the DiG$ would only be G$438.30 (21.20 oz). For a long time I have suspected the DiG$ would climb back to the halfway point of its long fall, that is, G$475. Next few days will make plain the path of the next 6 months.

Mercy me, am I glad I'm not responsible for the US Dollar! Almost makes you glad to be poor, knowing that the nothing you are holding is at least not losing something as fast as the dollar. The Samolean keeps bounding along the 80.50 level, much like something that is bottoming. That would make a double bottom with the Dec. 2004 low, and a platform for a rally. As long as that 80.35 low remains unbroken, a dollar rally remains a prospect.

As I was pondering today's commentary, one word came to mind: perspective. Don't panic, don't let events stampede you, keep your eyes on the horizon & always ask if these events change anything fundamentally. Deep breath. Stick with silver & gold. Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, July 12, 2007

Barring a Fall Below 1250 & 650, The Trend for Gold & Silver Lies Upward

Gold Price Close Last Week : 648.40
Gold Price Close This Week: 666.70
Change: 18.30 or 2.8%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1246.9
Silver Price Close This Week: 1307.8
Change: 60.90 cents or 4.9%

Over the weekend I'm taking a little trip, & I won't be here tomorrow, so I'm sending this out today.

What a week! The Silver Price was the clear winner & champ with a 60.9 cent or 4.95% gain! The Gold Price gained only a measly $18.30 or 2.8%.

Silver and Gold have done well, but next week must meet a hard test, resistance at 1325-1335 & 667. If this is a rally -- and I believe it is, with the bottom behind us -- silver & gold must punch right through that resistance & march on to other barriers. Bear in mind, too, that we might have seen the bottom, but instead of an immediate rally, metals might work higher sideways from now until September.

But for now, barring a fall below 1250 & 650, the trend most surely lies upward. By the way, silver did break out through its descending trendline, confirming gold's breakout earlier this week.

Stocks (as measured by the Dow) gained 2.2% this week to break out over 13,700 resistance & close today at a new high, 13,861.73, although the broader S&P500 has not yet bested its Spring 2000 high. Offering more instruction & deeper insight into stocks, the Dow in Gold Dollars & the Dow in Silver Ounces paint a bigger picture. The DiG$ sank slightly, the DiSOZ fell 2.6%. The DiG$ has fallen over 50% from its August 1999 peak, and the DiSOZ has fallen nearly 60% from its June 2001 peak. I know this seems repetitive to you all, but so hard are our investment skulls, having been layered with leaden propaganda from Wall Street about stocks. Wherefore, I repeat yet again, swap stocks for silver & gold. The DiG$ & DiSOZ both indicate that stocks are not about to outperform silver & gold, and this week the DiG$ broke out to the downside.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is getting creepy. Low today was 80.545, just about the December 2005 low. 80 has stood for nearly 40 years as support, with a couple of spikes to 79. What signifieth all that? Simply that if the dollar falls through 80, there's no safety net below. Why are stocks jumping? Why are gold & silver rising? In part at least because scared dollar holders are running to anything of value -- anything. Nor would it surprise me to learn that the late & present turmoil on Wall Street over rotten debt securities & derivatives (CDOs), which yesterday broke out also in Australia, is driving folks out of the buck.

Now that we've got the most likely outcome out of the way, what is the surprise that might wreck our plans? A dollar rally. A double bottom at 80.50, followed by a six to 12 month dollar rally that pulls the rug out from under all expectations. Does this change the longterm outlook for silver & gold? No, not at all, it just throws more up & down in the market. Remember that not only the dollar is rotten, but also the Euro, the pound sterling, & all other unbacked, fiat national currencies. Therefore demand for silver & gold ariseth not only from the dollar's rot, but from all other currencies' rot as well.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, July 11, 2007

The Gold & Silver Breakout Remains

The Silver Price today rose 0.2 cent while the Gold Price fell $2.20, 20 cents more than it rose yesterday. So what? Breakout remains, & gold stocks have broken out. Gold held on, & silver. One problem this time of year is that so many people are on vacation they're not paying attention to the market. That waters the response. Still, silver & gold tomorrow must advance, or attract short sellers. Yes, I would still buy silver & gold here, at least some.

The US DOLLAR INDEX has collapsed, falling past the 81.50 level down, down, down to 80.62 at the low today, now at 80.843. The December 2005 low was 80.39. The 40 year bottom of the range is 80, with one or two spikes as low as 78. Those Nice Government Men who keep so busy manipulating markets, especially the dollar, had best start paying attention. If the buck breaks 80.39, there's not much telling what would happen. Of course, about now, when everybody is short & bearish on the buck, would be a perfect time for them to enter the market & through their shills begin buying and buying from the Bottomless Pocket. If the NGM manage to tip off a rally, it could last six to twelve months and carry as high as 92.50 before it runs out of hot air. O, o, should silver & gold fear a rallying dollar? Maybe -- like an Abrams tank fears the flu virus.

STOCKS bounced today like a dead cat. Yesterday they fell on rising volume. If the Dow doesn't clear 13690 - 13,700 soon, it begins to look like a triple top. The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS climbed a bit today, to G$425.07. The DIGS has dropped down out of an up-pointing wedge, which spells "breakdown." However, a below-G$415 close is needed to confirm.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, July 10, 2007

Tomorrow Should Carry Gold to 667 - The First Barrier Gold Must Cross to Begin Proving a New Uptrend.

The SILVER PRICE closed the day smack on its downtrend line, looking like it will break thru tomorrow. My guess is that 1300, only 14 cents away, will see silver whiz by. By the way, not closing higher tomorrow would be very bad juju for silver.

The GOLD PRICE continued to climb today, stopping on its 17 DMA. Tomorrow should carry it to 667, which remains the first barrier gold must cross to begin proving a new uptrend.

Yes, yes, I would begin wetting my toe by buying some silver & gold here.

Yesterday I wrote, "Stocks have climbed to the decisive point, the last high at 13,672.32 (4 June). At this roughly 13,700 level they will prove their direction for a long time. Either they will fail and break down, or break out upside by piercing 13,700." Today the market spoke, & only one word: "Down!" Stocks obeyed immediately. The Dow fell 148 points, below its 20 day moving average. That's the coal mine canary for stocks. When they fall thru that 20 DMA, 'tis first indication of a trend change. Just below us, at 13,449, lies the 50 DMA, next canary in the coal mine. At 13,250 lies a trap door. Once the Dow steps thru that, it falls to the bottom of the shaft.

And look at that Dow in Gold Dollars! Dropped from the top of the range down to the bottom, G$421.29 20.380 oz). Still, we've seen this before. The DiG$ needs to fall through G$415 (20.076 oz) to confirm that it has broken down and resumed its downward flight toward its ultimate goal at G$41.34 (2.000 oz).

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, July 09, 2007

Buy Gold and Silver Now!

The GOLD PRICE has regained 12.10 in the last two days' trading. Pay careful attention: today gold broke out above its downtrend line. Gold has already climbed through its 17 day moving average (652.09) and is nearing its 50 DMA (661.34). Buy gold here.

The SILVER PRICE is lagging gold, & remains beneath its downtrend line. However, silver has traded into a downward pointing wedge, & wedges generally break out the opposite from the direction they point in. I am beginning to suspect that my black outlook on metals the last two weeks has not been justified. This week could be exciting if silver & gold continue to follow through. I'd like to see silver close comfortably above 1280 tomorrow. Time to buy some silver, too.

Stocks have climbed to the decisive point, the last high at 13,672.32 (4 June). At this roughly 13,700 level they will prove their direction for a long time. Either they will fail and break down, or break out upside by piercing 13,700. Since they've been in a bull move, you have to expect they will break out to the upside.

Sounds strange, coming from me? Not really, because I am not by any means saying that stocks will outperform silver & gold. ON THE CONTRARY. the Dow In Gold Dollars keeps creeping up to G$432, then falling back, creeping up & falling back. It has formed an upward wedge. It is possible that these formations break out to the upside, but most times they break out to the downside. Unless the DiG$ closes above G$436, expect it to break down soon. That means that gold is about to begin outperforming stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, July 05, 2007

Both Gold & Silver Are Behaving as if They Didn't Want to Drop Further

Gold Price Close Last Week : 648.10
Gold Price Close This Week: 648.40
Change: 0.30 or 0%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1235.3
Silver Price Close This Week: 1246.9
Change: 11.60 cents or 0.9%

Scan, first, the week's winners and losers. Winners were Silver and Gold Prices, the Dow in Gold Dollars, stocks, & platinum. Losers were the US dollar index and palladium.

SILVER remains below its 200 & 300 day moving averages, & must close above 1265 to climb over the 300 DMA. Above that resistance at 1280, 1325, & 1380 loom. But I am tantalized by developments in gold today. My friend BL called to point out that gold stocks were strong today, even though gold fell. Agnico Eagle (AEM) jumped up 5%, & very evidently broke out topside, although special events peculiar to that company might have been responsible. Silver & gold's seasonal pattern also calls for a low about this time of year. Gold is oscillating around its lower trading channel line. A close below 642 will take gold further down. However, both gold & silver are behaving as if they didn't want to drop further. My guess is that we will see lower prices, but I am not so convinced that I wouldn't buy some now. Also, if you have gold still that you want to swap for silver, this would be the time to do that.

The US DOLLAR INDEX may have caught this week above its old low at 81.25, but if it did it's keeping its cards close to its breast. Maybe it has built a double bottom for a rally, and maybe not. A close below 81.25 will take it further down, a close over 81.90 points to a rally. I think that latter outcome more likely, but the trend remains down.

Stocks were mixed today, with some indices up & some down, a sign of confusion in the market -- or a sign of a holiday week when most traders are away.

What does concern me is today's DiG$ close, the highest (by gold-pennies) so far in this attempt to pierce resistance under G$436 (21.092 oz). The DiG$ is behaving like a market that wants to go higher. It has built a rising, flat-topped triangle and keeps coming back to the G$429 - G$432.50 area. Only a break below G$415 now would gainsay that expectation.

Does that mean I am throwing over silver & gold for stocks? Hardly. In the long term silver & gold will outperform stocks many, many times. Of that I have no doubt. However, in the short term we may see stocks outperform gold, which offers you a perfect chance to swap stocks for silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Gold Needs a 667 Close and Silver 1280 to Confirm a Change in Trend

A week with a holiday tends to mess things up slightly, since all those big traders rushing out to their first martini on Long Island don't want to carry a position over the holiday, so they close out positions and take profits before they go. However, what wizard or soothsayer might be able to quantify the Rush-to-Martini effect? None yet born, so we must satisfy ourselves with suspicions.

Silver and Gold Prices
dropped today, but not for any great damage. Silver, I was pleased to see, remained above 1250, and gold comfortably above 650. This will do for now, but to confirm a change of trend we need to see closes above 1280 and 667.

The US Dollar index today rose 11 basis points, perhaps stopping its fall in the neighbourhood of that old 81.25 low. Rest of the week, or next Monday, will tell. One day doth not a trend make.

STOCKS parted company from silver & gold today, with stocks rising a little while metals fell. Stocks still look toppy to me, but need to confirm my suspicions by closing below 13,250. The Dow In Gold Dollars continued the torment today by rising back to the G$430 area, closing at G$429.88. Is it going to break down or up? I'm worn out with watching, and I don't know. What do I know? That Velveeta cheese is made out of petroleum products, or tastes like it, and that sooner or later the Dow will trade at two ounces of gold (G$41)rather than today's 20.795 oz., & upon that line I will rest. So all you I-like-to-bet-on-an-inside-straight folks hang on to those stocks, & we'll see what happens.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, July 02, 2007

Bullish Non-Confirmation for Gold

I'm reconsidering my near term outlook on Gold and Silver Prices. I came in this morning to stare at the Unhedged Gold Stocks Index (HUI) chart. Lo, behold! It breaketh not down, nor hath. That makes a non-confirmation with gold's break last week, one I would call a bullish non-confirmation, because surely the stocks depend on how gold performs. Yet I recall how many times I have been fooled by a rally bouncing off a low in a downtrending market, & I put my hand over my mouth. Still, gold merely touched off its 200 day moving average, then turned up. Needs now to close over 667 to confirm.

SILVER broke its 200 DMA last week. Yet when you review the last 3 years, there have been only few times silver has dropt thru that 200 DMA, & few exceptions to the rule that those 200 DMA breaches happen just before spectacular rallies. And it closed above 1259 today, something else I liked. And the premium on US 90% silver coin remains high-ish at minus 50 cents.

Add to all that silver & gold's seasonal pattern, which usually posts a low around this time of year. Maybe my pessimism last week was overhasty. I fear it was.

The US dollar has simply collapsed, down 31 basis points today, 57.5 Friday, and 10 last Thursday, a total of 97.5 points lost in 3 days. The buck now rests a hair's breadth from the 81.25 May low. If that fails, then the only safety net below is the Dec. 2005 low at 80.39. If the dollar does catch at 81.25, then it will have made a double bottom platform from which to build a rally. But, yes, it does have room & momentum enough to fall further.

STOCKS, the Great Gurus tell us, rebounded today on several big [enormously stupid & debt laden] buy out deals. Let's try something else: they bounced off the 50 day moving average because any investor with a computer & a smattering of technical knowledge suspects it will bounce from there & so buys. I think the Dow looks like it's rolling over, Al Thomas, who has forgotten more about trading stocks that most of us will ever know, thinks it's going higher still (his site mutualfundmagic.com). I have learned to be careful when my conclusions disagree with an "old dog's" conclusions.

Still, it makes little practical difference for me, because there's no sense buying stocks when gold is leaving them in the dust. The Dow In Gold Dollars today dropped again, and has once again failed at that G$430+ level. That argues gold will once again be outperforming stocks strongly.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.