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Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Stop Waiting To Buy Gold and Silver

Gold Price Close Today : 792.00
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 784.30
Change: $7.7 or 1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.377
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 14.267
Change: 11 cents or 0.8%

US Dollar Index: 76.54
Change: -0.20 or -0.3%

Y'all think about this: last week for the very first time in my 27 years of buying and selling silver & gold I sold a gold coin for $800 an ounce.

The GOLD PRICE high today hit 797.30. The gold price jumped US$7.70 at the close, & has risen another US$3.50 in the aftermarket, 3 hours later. Sure, it could bounce off the psychological barrier of the round number US$800, but more likely it will punch through US$800 like wet cardboard.

Folks, we got us a rally. Stop waiting to buy. Don't stand in the way of a bull market, it'll run you over.

The SILVER PRICE was the only sad note in today's performance. It rose 11 cents, to $14.377, and another 12 cents in the aftermarket (so far), but why not close over $14.50?

The US DOLLAR INDEX dropped about 20 basis points to a new low today -- another new low. This is ridiculous. Ask anybody back from a recent European trip about purchasing power parity. They're still burned about paying US$120 for a $60 meal. A dollar rally is overdue. Today's 25 basis point drop (to the day's low) suggests that rally will begin soon -- NOT, of course, that I recommend you hold dollars. I'm just warning you that this might slow down silver & gold.

Fitting for Hallowe'en: clearly the Fed goofs are scairt silly that the subprime credit crunch & liquidity panic (SCC & LP) will drag down the entire rickety house of cards that is the fiat money sponsored US economy. So said goofs lowered interest rates (or, their little part of interest rates, hoping everybody else will follow) a quarter percentage point. The message? Bernanke is really Freddy Kruger of Nightmare on Elm Street & intends to take a chainsaw to the US dollar, or whatever is necessary to bail out his corporate cronies on Wall Street & Elsewhere.

Whoops, sorry, you Little People, your dollars will have to be inflated away -- can't make an omelet without breaking your eggs.

Folks, if y'all have ever had a warning to get out of the dollar & into silver & gold, this is it, the second one. Flee from all investments that oblige anyone to pay you dollars in the future -- annuities, insurance, pensions, etc.
STOCKS thought the Fed's move was very amusing, and responded by climbing a measly 96 points. This doesn't impress me. The Dow still has not signalled which way it will fall off this knife edge, but, as usual, I don't give a hoot because I have long ago swapped stocks for silver & gold, as I urge you to do, too.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS hit G$360.90 in the aftermarket, down enough from the close (G$362.49 or 17.535 oz.) and from the Feb. 2007 low for me to proclaim, announce, and deliver that a new downtrend has begun that won't stop until it crashes through G$330.00 (15.964 oz). Bad news for stocks, great news for gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Swap Gold For Silver - Silver Price is About to Roar Higher

Gold Price Close Today : 784.30
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 789.10
Change: -$5.10 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.267
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 14.365
Change: -10 cents or -0.7%

US Dollar Index: 76.74
Change: -0.13 or -0.2%

The GOLD PRICE gave up US$5.10 today, no surprise after yesterday, and no big shakes in the market. I've been thinking about a little correction here. The Fed might do something tomorrow to exaggerate that correction, but it will be over after a few days. Of course, if they lower interest rates another half percentage point, then their plan to hyperinflate the dollar will become plain to many more, sending the gold price higher still.

The SILVER PRICE, with the gold price, gave up ten cents today. The silver price is about to roar, but may get caught in a correction here. Keep still, keep waiting, and buy more silver.

My friend B.L., the Wild Technician, called me all excited this morning. He now thinks that the Gold/Silver ratio has one more rise, to 59 or so. If it reaches 58:1, every one of you with gold ought to swap it for silver. The Ratio is ready to make its third wave down, & this will carry it down so spectacularly that it will suck the breath even out of me, who expects great things already.

Markets grow quiet and demure as they wait for Helicopter Ben & his Feddites to throw their monkey wrench into the American economy. Did you ever ponder what a lunatic, arrogant assumption lies in a private corporation (the Fed) controlling the economic future of 250 million people? I mean of course, besides their doing it for astronomical profit corruptly gained? I have seven children, & while they were growing up it was everything their mother & I could do to control & guide them. I wouldn't begin to try controlling them today, when they're grown.

Now think about the unspeakable arrogance that credits eight or ten men with ability to know what's good for 250 million free men. Makes you want to spit, doesn't it? Leaves a puking bad taste in your mouth.

The US DOLLAR just grinds lower & lower & lower. Have the Nice Government Men lost their minds? Friends, the yankee government's policy since 1913 has been to decapitalise y'all by depreciating your dollars. How much longer are y'all going to stand still for it? Buy something, anything that has value.

STOCKS gave up a bit today, but speak still out of both sides of their mouth concerning the next move. Waiting for Bernanke. Sell stocks while you still can and buy silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, October 29, 2007

$850 Gold Price Soon - Maybe By The End Of This Week

Gold Price Close Today : 789.10
Gold Price Close Friday: 783.90
Change: $5.20 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.365
Silver Price Close 19th of Friday: 14.212
Change: 15.3 cents or 1.1%

US Dollar Index: 76.87
Change: -0.14 or -0.2%

Whooo-eee! Somebody is scared about what Mighty Ben & his Feddites are going to do tomorrow. They've been buying gold today like the Russians were on
Main Street.

The GOLD PRICE rose $5.20 at the close of $789.10, and then rose another $2.00 in the aftermarket! What, ho? High was $794.90, $5.10 from my $800 first target. Some strange Fed act tomorrow might whack gold, something I haven't thought of, but barring that y'all will see $850 gold price soon, maybe by the end of this week.

Oh, and SILVER! The SILVER PRICE rose 15.30 cents by the close, and then in the after market had risen another 14 cents to $14.505 This is frantic buying, leaving me sniffing the air for a cause of this terror. A short squeeze? I would be very much surprised if the silver price stopped here. More, it gives me beautiful dreams just to contemplate where the silver price might go from here -- will it stop first at $18, or $20 -- or $24 ? Very powerful forces take over above $15, which was the last high back in 1981.

If y'all have still failed to buy gold & silver, you'd better run catch the last train before it leaves you behind forever.

On this day in 1929 crashed the US Stock market. The high that year was G$381 (the dollar was backed by gold then), and before the market bottomed in 1932 it dropped to $41.63.

The US DOLLAR INDEX dropped again today to another all time low, and tomorrow Mighty Ben will probably drop the interest rate another quarter percent, which makes the buck even less attractive. One would guess that Ben won't try another trick like his last one, seeing how it roiled markets, but silver & gold have been nervous today, as if every hedge fund & investor out there wanted to take hold of a little gold rope just in case Ben hasn't learned anything from his last party. Logically the dollar ought to rally from here someplace, but logic has nothing to do with currency exchange rates, it seems.

STOCKS gained a little, but it was a slow day because everyone is waiting for the Feddites (rhymes with "Luddites") to "act" tomorrow. Of course, that didn't prevent the Dow in Gold Dollars from sinking more, to another new low at G$362.35 (17.529 oz). How much clearer can the message be? Stocks will under perform gold for a long time to come.

Did y'all also notice that the Dow in Silver Ounces has fallen through 1,000 oz to close today at 956.24 oz.?


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, October 26, 2007

The Gold Price is Now in Technically Uncharted Waters

Gold Price Close Today : 783.90
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 764.40
Change: $19.50 or 2.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.212
Silver Price Close 19th of October: 13.55
Change: 66.20 cents or 4.9%

In January 1980 at the last gold bull market peak the GOLD PRICE spent only 9 scattered days above US$710. Today marks gold's 30th consecutive day above $710, since 17 Sept. Besides, 1980's $710 equals a 2007's inflation adjusted gold price of $1,973.21. The gold price has so much further to run from here it's not even worth talking about.

The GOLD PRICE is now in technically uncharted waters, so it could run all the way to $850 before correcting. I bet everyone expects it to stop at the round number $800, but markets always disappoint. The larger target here is $1,000 and no barrier lies in-between. Get gold now. It's climbing a bull market wall of worry.

Do y'all see now what I mean when I call the SILVER PRICE "volatile"? It gained 70 cents in two days. I told y'all it would run when it crossed 1400. My target (if the dollar co-operates, as it appears inclined) is 1550 - 1600. By the way, silver's 1980 high at US$50 equals 2007's inflation adjusted gold price of $138.95. That number lies on the low end of my target range for this bull market.

Clearly the big story today was the US DOLLAR INDEX posting a new intraday low at 76.977, lowest since Nixon closed the gold window & broke the buck's link to gold in August 1971. No doubt the midnight oil is burning in central bank offices all over the world as they try to figure out how to put the status quo back together. From here the dollar must have less down-side than upside, since it has been falling so long. Yet it seems a rally will not come along in time to forestall a US$800 plus gold price and $15.50 plus silver price.

The Dow held on above 13,800 but now must clear 13,900 resistance. I'm still w watching the last low, 13,407 and the August low at 12,518. Any close below those marks spells "t-r-o-u-b-l-e." Watch the 200 DMA at 13,168 as well.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (stocks measured by gold) fell to a new low for the move today at G$364.09 (17.613 oz). Below here lieth only empty air, down to the May 2006 low at G$330 (15.963 oz), and lower down to G$310 - 300 (14.996 - 14.513 oz). My long term target at 2 oz = the Dow doesn't look so crazy now, does it? Swap stocks for silver & gold while you still have time.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, October 25, 2007

800 - 825 Gold Price & 1550 - 1600 Silver Price Before This Rally Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 767.30
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 761.60
Change: $5.7 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.835
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 13.515
Change: 32 cents or 2.4%

The GOLD PRICE keeps on grinding higher and higher. On top of a US$5.70 gain today, the gold price closed nearly on its high. $800 is still possible early next week, although the rally is becoming more & more overbought. So? It can get more overbought still.

Today the SILVER PRICE finally knocked on the 1400 door after a 49 cent gain, but fell back to only 1383.50 (up 32 cents). Yet again silver failed to close above 1400. When it does at long last breach that wall, 'twill run hard. Tomorrow, perhaps? Soon, no doubt.

I still expect to see $800 - 825 gold & 1550 - 1600 silver before this rally ends.

The US DOLLAR INDEX made a fresh all-time low today, with ne'er a sign of turning round. First step would be to stretch to this week's 78.18 high, but how high that seems! Watch it! All currencies are volatile, & central banks can intervene at any time. Odds & politics favour a turnaround, even if technicals don't.

How long can the Nice Government Men on the Plunge Protection Team keep doing this -- bringing the Dow back 200 - 125 points to close nearly unchanged? Must be racking their nerves. The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS dropped anther G$2.84 (0.137 oz), enough to scare the old low. The DiG$ is telling us that stocks have not by any means finished falling..

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Gold Keeps on Grinding Toward $800

Gold Price Close Today : 761.60
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 759.00
Change: $2.6 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.515
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 13.572
Change: -5.7 cents or -0.4%

SILVER came back from lower prices to close the day down only 5.7 cents. That's not much of a recommendation, now is it? The silver price is simply facing more resistance as it climbs, while the GOLD PRICE faces greater sponsorship. That's a consequence of the sub-prime credit crisis, and it hasn't passed by yet. Once the silver price climbs over 1400 it ought to gain fans quickly. Meanwhile the gold price keeps on grinding toward $800, climbing that wall-of-worry.

The US DOLLAR INDEX held on today at 77.50, second day running. It is feeling for a bottom.

The DOW today appears unchanged, but the close doesn't tell the whole story. At one point it was down 200 points, then miraculously climbed back to unchanged. Must have nearly broken the Nice Government Men's backs to pull that off.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Silver and Gold Prices Will Move Higher Before a Major Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 759.00
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 755.80
Change: $3.20 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.572
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 13.475
Change: 9.7 cents or 0.7%

STOCKS today bounced up 109.26, but it signified nothing. The area around 13,675 is a minefield filled with resistance, & I doubt the Dow will pierce it tomorrow. Yet the Dow in Gold Dollars reveals the real truth of a 109.26 point Dow rise: spit in the wind. In gold dollars it amounted to only G$1.41, or 0.068 oz. of gold, about the size of a tiny Mexican 2.5 peso.

Continuing to bolster my suspicion that both SILVER & GOLD PRICES will move higher before a major correction, gold jumped over 757.50 today to close at 759, and silver scrambled above 1350 to close at 1357.2. Although the metals rally has lingered a long time in overbought territory, the end is not yet -- I'm betting.

Today that unreliable friend, the US DOLLAR INDEX, gave back nearly 50 basis points, to close little above last weeks 77.3 low (77.525). It's beginning to make me wonder whether the dollar ever will rally. But then if it holds it will confirm last week's low as a bottom.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, October 22, 2007

Gold Price Could Now Head to $800 Anytime

Gold Price Close Today : 755.80
Gold Price Close October 12th: 748.70
Change: 7.10 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 1347.5
Silver Price Close October 12th: 1380.3
Change: -32.80 cents or -2.4%

Sorry about missing three days last week. I had to travel & neglected to warn y'all. I'm comparing prices Friday a week ago with today's (Monday's) prices.

The GOLD PRICE decided to run wild while I was out of town. It could now head for US$800 anytime as the fiddling around today probably amounts to no more than breath-catching for a run at US$764.50 which has twice stopped gold. Only caution about today's close at US$755.80 is that it fell below US$757.50 which had been serving as a floor briefly. This leaves gold on its uptrend line, so tomorrow it must close higher to hold on, which I easily expect. Y'all may see US$800 gold by week's end.

The SILVER PRICE, oddly enough, looks like gold on the chart, only slower. It has completed a long, straight run up & squiggled sideways. Figuring that might be half-way and guessing, that offers a target for this run of 1552 cents. So why all the sweat getting here? Don't forget that a bull always tries to shake off as many riders as possible.

STOCKS have fallen below their 17 day moving average & 50 DMA & headed for support at their bottom trading channel line about 13,425. If they crack that, then the 200 DMA stands at 13,135, & more important, the last low at 12,838 (August). Deeper down lies the 12,063 March low. A close below 12,838 force me to interpret the chart pattern as a double top or perhaps broadening top pattern. That second is slow to unfold sometimes and frustrating, but utterly certain. The 2000 peak formed as a broadening top, & at the end had dropped 38%, from 11,722 to 7,286.

Lest I fill your ears with incomprehensible jargon, telling you that the chart shows a "double top" or "broadening top" translates, "Stocks should fall like the car keys out of your shirt pocket when you lean over the Tallahatchie River bridge to look down at the water." Is that plain enough? Friends, get out of stocks & put the money into silver & gold, if you want to save it. I know all your financial advisors & gurus & other lamprey eels & pilot fish that feed off you will scream that you've gone crazy, but that's because they don't want to see their meal ticket disappear, or because they can only think as they've been taught. It's not their money that will evaporate in stocks, or their future.

The Dow in Gold Dollars (plain English: Dow measured by how much gold it takes to buy it) evidently had strong support at G$385 (18.624 oz.) because once it fell thru that mark, it couldn't find the brakes until it hit G$365.68 (17.690 oz). It fell that far in five days, but mostly in one: last Friday, when it dropped from G$379.02 (18.335 oz) to G$365.68 (17.690 oz) in a single day. Recall that I warned y'all in August when the DiG$ fell thru critical G$415 (20.076 oz) support that it was signalling stocks would weaken against gold. Well, Old Reliable nailed it again -- best indicator I know.

Out on a limb I will guess that the US DOLLAR INDEX bottomed last week about 77.40. Right now it's trading at 77.957, up 61.6 basis points from Friday. This might spell trouble for silver & gold, but I believe the dollar will take time to catch up to them, long enough

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Buy Silver and Gold On Any Dips

Gold Price Close Today : 757.00
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 757.10
Change: 0.10 or 0.0%

Silver Price Today : 13.560
Silver Price Yesterday: 13.760
Change: -20 cents or -1.5%

I admit that silver & gold have me quandrified. The SILVER PRICE wants to correct, while the GOLD PRICE champs at the bit to run off. Today's double close in gold (yesterday 757.10, today 757.00) makes me wonder, as double closes always do, whether gold might drop tomorrow.

Silver did stop above 1350, which was encouraging. Even if metals take a well-earned breather here, before too long they should move up smartly. Bull market seasonals (since 2001) point toward that, as do silver's moving average comparisons. Buy more silver & gold on any dips.

What on earth was I thinking about yesterday? Had I looked more closely I would have reported that the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$, the Dow measured in gold) broke down yesterday through G$385-386 (18.624 oz - 18.673 oz) support which had held since 7 September. Now beneath the DiG$ stands only the Feb. 2007 low at G$369.25 (17.862 oz), then the May 2006 low about G$331 (16.012 oz). Now it's possible the DiG$ will catch and stop at G$369.25, but it is very, very doubtful, on the same odds with your unknown great aunt dying and leaving you half of Saudi Arabia. Listen carefully to what the DiG$, my most reliable indicator, is whispering: "Gold will outperform stocks for a long, long time."

Stocks must stop at Dow 13,700 or drop much lower.

The US DOLLAR INDEX won a small skirmish today, up 12.5 basis points to 78.208. This should be the week when it either double bottoms at 77.66 or stops above 78. Next big move is a rally.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, October 15, 2007

If Silver & Gold Prices Both Gain Tomorrow - Then We'll Soon See Much Higher Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 757.10
Gold Price Close Friday: 748.70
Change: 8.40 or 1.1%

Silver Price Today : 13.760
Silver Price Friday: 13.803
Change: -4.3 cents or -0.3%

SILVER & GOLD PRICES dropped a big question in my lap today. The silver price can lag the gold price, or gold can lag silver, & it doesn't mean much. Today, however, the gold price rose smartly, eight bucks, while silver sank four cents. That looks like a non-confirmation. Markets speak with forked tongue. Gold/silver ratio drop. Makes me nervous, although I have been expecting the gold price to rise.

If silver's dallying today was not a harbinger of lower prices to come -- if silver & gold prices both gain tomorrow -- then we'll soon see much higher prices. But if gold has out run itself & needs a rest, that will probably show up with a lower close tomorrow. Aww, I'm probably worrying about nothing.

The US DOLLAR INDEX sagged today again, trying to defend 78. We'll either see a double bottom with 77.66 this week, or the dollar will succeed in holding on to 78.

Today I figured out why I have been so suspicious of stocks lately (well, okay, more suspicious than usual): they were fixing to tank. Now two different things might happen. First, stocks might decline to, say, 13,550 or so, the 50 day moving average, and then soar again. They will then crash through the old highs and keep on moving. Or, second, they might drop to the 50 DMA and fall right through, and keep on falling, having painted on the chart a gigantic double top, and finish. From here, I don't know which, I only know (as much as I know anything in this sublunary world) that silver & gold will outperform stocks monstrously in the next decade.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, October 12, 2007

Gold and Silver Prices Climbed Higher This Week - Gold Closed at 748.70, Silver at 1380.3

Gold Price Close Last Week : 732.80
Gold Price Close This Week: 748.70
Change: 15.90 or 2.2%

Silver Price Close Last Week : 1325
Silver Price Close This Week: 1380.3
Change: 55.30 cents or 4.2%

So far in this bull market we haven't seen too many weeks when the SILVER PRICE gained 55.3 cents & the GOLD PRICE gained $15.90. Will it last?

"Don't fight the tape" is the corollary of the Wall Street proverb, "Bull markets always climb a wall of worry." While I was worrying about a correction, silver & gold ignored me & kept on climbing. They closed above my 1380 & 750 targets yesterday, but fell below them barely today. What does that mean? That I've got a 50/50 chance of being right, whatever I say.

On Monday we'll find out which way they're going. If silver closes below 1350, they'll probably correct, with the chance silver can fall as low at 1300 - 1280 & gold as low as 690-700. I consider that the less likely outcome. More likely, the present rally will extend, but a target is difficult. If the little squiggle of the past few days marks half of the rise, then it will continue to US$825 or so. However, there's been so little trading in this area before, it might stop at 800 or overshoot to 850. That would drag silver up over 1500, maybe to 1600 just to fool everybody's smug expectations.

Present nightmare? That the silver gold ratio doesn't stop at the 57 it has already reached, but rallies to 65, implying big corrections in silver & gold. Other nightmare? A blistering dollar rally that knocks the stuffing out of stocks, silver, & gold. Eventual outcome? Metals remain in a bull market & gold takes longer to reach $1000 & silver to reach $24 than I originally thought.

The US DOLLAR INDEX gained 7 basis points today, stiffening its spine as it gets closer and closer to 78. Three possibilities loom. (1) the Samolean drops to the previous low at 77.66 and continues to drop like your glasses over the side of a ski-boat, straight to the bottom of the lake. (2) It drops to 77.66 or nearby & posts a double bottom as a base for a rally, or (3) it stops someplace around 78, and rises from there. I consider (2) or (3) most likely, as I still expect a rally. However, I will not weep if (1) eventuates, because I
have as few US dollars as possible.

I keep vacillating on stocks, although it makes no difference to my buying them. Whether the Dow soars for 36,000 or drops like the balance in your checking account after payday, I don't want to own most stocks. Besides, silver & gold are going to outperform them so badly I wouldn't want to own them anyway.

Proof of my contention is the Dow standing near new highs but the Dow in Gold Dollars near to breaking down for a new free fall -- ditto the Dow measured in silver. In dollar terms stocks are either making a double top, which I consider most likely, or they are about to rise much higher (but not as fast as gold).

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, October 11, 2007

The Next Stop for the Gold Price is 790 - 800, Silver's Target is 1486

Well, SILVER & GOLD PRICES did it today, closing over my 1380 target at 1388.3 and over 750 at 751.30. Like anybody in his right mind, expecting another long advance after we've just completed one makes me nervous. But that's what bull markets do, climb a wall of worry against all expectation. Next logical stopping point for gold is 790 - 800, and the old all-time high at 850. Silver has yet to best its May 2006 high at 1486, so that is its next target. Above 1500 there's small resistance at 1800, but no real barrier until it hits 2400. Yes, I know it sounds crazy, but that's what's on the chart. I'm not the choreographer, just another dancer.

I found 24 (only) pieces of the famous "Angel Writing" French 20 francs (0.1867 troy oz.), but I am going to limit each customer to one (1) only so you all get a shot at them. Price is 154.25 + 7.50 shipping. Call (888) 218-9226 & leave your name, address, phone number, & e-mail address. Please mention Goldprice.org in your order.

Yeah, Buddy, those STOCKS have really taken off. Dow has now sunk back to 14,000, but I might be wrong. It might be just touching back to the breakout point. Either way, I don't want to own stocks, not with the Dow in Gold Dollars down today to G$385.62 (18.587 oz), which is, by fifteen gold cents (0.0072 oz) a new low in the DiG$ for this move. It must stop & reverse here, or it will drop to G$369 (17.757 oz). The very reliable DiG$ is telling us, "Stocks down, gold up."

The US $ INDEX gave up another 32 basis points today and is trading now at 78.15. That's about where it ought to turn around and begin another leg up. Previous low was 77.66, so what we might see is a double bottom around that point, and then a rise. Keep on expecting the dollar to hold that 77.66 and rally, rather than falling to the center of the earth at this time. That will come later.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Gold Price Needs to Exceed 747.20 to Avoid a Correction

The GOLD PRICE high today was US$745.90, but it closed at US$740.40. None of this helps much, since breaking out requires a close above US$747.20. Otherwise it must correct a while, and could drop to US$700. Tomorrow will probably decide. Failing to exceed 747.20 in the next two days will almost certainly send the gold price lower.

Comparing some of the SILVER PRICE moving averages leaves me impressed that there is no turning back for the silver price. We have seen the lows. Indeed, today the silver price crossed 1350 but 1380 remains the high hurdle.

Still looking over my shoulder at that GOLD/SILVER RATIO. It ought to turn down, but could very well rise to 57.50 or even 65. The Ratio needs to drop below 51 to prove it doesn't mean to backfire on us.

The US DOLLAR INDEX has given up everything gained since last Friday, but will yet rally (soon) to its 200 Day Moving Average (about 80). Bank on it. [That was a joke -- get it? "Bank" on it -- as if you could trust banks, the most untrustworthy corporations on a planet crowded with untrustworthy corporations? Well, I thought it was funny.]

STOCKS backed off today. Yesterday's new high may be meaningless because markets really need to exceed an old high by at least 2%. In this case that would put the Dow at 14,302. However, the S&P500 did make a new all-time high yesterday, & it hath long been weaker than the Dow.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (DiG$, the Dow measured in gold instead of paper dollars) dropped today. It needs to close below G$385.77 (18.662 oz, its most recent low), & to speed up the collapse really needs to close below the February lowa t G$369.25 (16.201 oz.) Wait -- it's coming.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Silver and Gold Prices Both Popped Today, Up $4.60 & $22.50

SILVER & GOLD PRICES both popped today, up 22.50 & US$4.60, but without any real effect. The silver price must clear resistance at 1350 and 1380, the gold price must clear 742. Anything in between is just that -- in between. Worst threat to silver & gold right now is the dollar, but they are also overbought. Watch out for another possible drop, and buy more there.

I read something last night that might explain gold & stocks moving together. Big hedge funds are borrowing yen and with the leveraged proceeds buying stocks -- and gold, as a hedge against the dollar. This cannot come from a sane mind, because when the yen trade begins to unwind, these people will be long stocks and long gold while the yen soars against the dollar. Seems like they will lose both ways if the stock market decides to drop again, maybe taking gold with it. I'm about worn out trying to make sense out of the senseless.

Last night I got to thinking & remembered I had written that stocks were probably going higher. I cringed, yes, cringed as I thought about it more deeply. Now today, sure enough, they break out above 14,100, but I am still cringing. More likely than stocks going much higher, thanks to all the breadth problems, is that they are making a gigantic double top with January 2007, the second wing of which is itself doubled at 19 July & today. Complicating this is the behaviour of the Dow in Gold Dollars, which is trembling back & forth between G$386 (18.605 oz) & G$396 (19.087 oz). It's starting to look something like a sidewise consolidation, instead of a breakdown.

Did I just contradict myself? Well, it sounds like it, but that's how I see those charts.

The US DOLLAR INDEX gained over 45 basis points yesterday and gave back 30 of them today. Moving higher awfully slowly.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, October 02, 2007

Buy Gold and Silver With Both Hands and Feet During These Corrections

Today's stock & metals markets point out what sort of effect a dollar rally can have on high-strung & temporarily overbought markets. Stocks took a small hit (40.24 points on the Dow) while the GOLD PRICE fell US$17.40 and the SILVER PRICE fell 40.2 cents. Give them a few days to digest the higher dollar.

GOLD came back to the area it's been fighting thru in the past two weeks, making a low at 724.30 & closing at 729.80. It rose in the aftermarket to 731.40, a sign of strength. Next we should get a rise, nearly to the high, then another leg down which may stop here, or might carry as low as 710. After this brief (4-5 day) correction, gold will be ready to break past US$750. A close below US$685 means gold intends a longer & more nerve-wracking correction, but that is very unlikely.

According the INO.com report of spot prices, silver's low today was 13.05, but I never saw it. 13.22 was the lowest I saw. No matter, silver held in the areas I expected (1300 & 1325). Behold! Expect silver to follow gold the next week or so. It shouldn't fall below support at 1280.

I know it's obvious, but y'all ought to be buying with both hands and your feet during these corrections.

On seemingly no news, the US Dollar index managed to rise about 36 basis points today, scrabbling over 78 and over 78.19, the 1991 low. Here's a guess how this will unfold. The buck will again sink below 78 to roughly its previous low at 77.66, where it will make a double bottom from which to rally. This should happen within the next 7-10 days, maybe less. Any close much below 77.66 would prove that is not about to happen.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, October 01, 2007

Buy Gold Now or You May Miss the Opportunity of the Century

The GOLD PRICE continues to march on, up 4.40 today. A brief breath-catching correction might take place at any time, and the SILVER PRICE non-confirmed gold today by dropping 6.5 cents. Perhaps 750 will present a small psychological hurdle, but not much. Any correction will be short & shallow. Better, far, far better would be to buy now and never think about any correction. Otherwise, y'all may miss the opportunity of the century. And if gold is a good buy, then silver is a much better one.

How many fairy tales have you read where the hero or heroine saved the day by looking through the ugly toadskin or beast-hide and recognizing the beauty hid beneath the integument? Lots, but very few where the beautiful woman or man turned out to be a toad inside (they write murder-ballads about those). Well, folks, if you can't look through the pretty numbers the stock market puts off, you're destined to be married to an investment toad for years and years, & that toad will clean out your pockets. That's why I keep pointing you to the Dow In Gold Dollars, which today stands at G$389.79 (18.856 oz), down sixty-eight percent (68%) from its August 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.767 oz). So much for new nominal Dow high.

The US Dollar Index rallied today about 25 basis points. Beware any sharp dollar rally that catches the shorts unawares and feeds on short covering. Silver, gold, and stocks are all riding on a weakening dollar, so if it strengthens they will have trouble.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.