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Thursday, January 31, 2008

This May Be the Beginning of the Move Where Silver Outperforms Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 922.70
Change: 2.10 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.948
Change: 23.7 cents or 1.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.21
Change: 0.14 or 0.2%

The SILVER PRICE today traded above $17.00 for the first time in this bull market, at $17.04 precisely. Notice also that the gold/silver ratio dropped today. This may be the beginning of the move we've long expected where silver outperforms gold.

I expect silver to reach at least $21.00, so y'all still have time to buy some -- if you hurry. And by the way, you American buyers are wasting money to buy anything but US 90% silver dimes, quarters & halves minted before 1965 ("junk silver"). I know dealers will try to foist off silver American Eagles & bullion on you, but 90% coin is the cheapest, most divisible, most widely traded form of physical silver. It's also self-authenticating. Australian & British buyers may find the same bargain in your 50% or 92.5% silver coin. Check price per oz. by dividing cost by content.

Remember how the GOLD PRICE acted at $700 & $800? How it kept straining at the leash to get through those marks? How during the day it would close below that mark, then in the aftermarket press on through, up $8 or $12? Gold is acting that way now at $930. Yesterday it closed at $920.60, but traded as high as $933 in the aftermarket. The cosmos has given up on holding gold below $1,000.

Bailout Ben Bernanke & his Bumbling Fed Buddies yesterday lowered the interest rate by another half percent, making a total of 1-1/2% dropped in the last week. As expected, at the first whiff of recession or credit crisis, not to mention the full stench, they are pulling the trigger on their only weapon: the inflation gun. Bad for the dollar and you "little people", good for corporations and Wall Street. No hard decision there, huh?

US dollar index rose today. It appears to have bottomed, but will climb only slowly. Not moving nearly fast enough to offer hindrance to silver or gold. Subprime credit crisis has not spread to insurers of rotten mortgage backed "securities." What! They might actually have to pay claims! But wait, that's not what an insurance company is for -- they're only supposed to collect premiums, not pay claims! And why do they call an instrument backed by worthless mortgages or credit card debts a 'security'? Shouldn't it be called an "insecurity"? Gotta be careful with language.

Stocks rose today, but this has become a meaningless study. S&P500 has lost 75% of its value against silver since June 2001, Dow has lost 70% against gold since August 1999. What's to talk about? Swap stocks for silver & gold.

If you want to turn your IRA into precious metals, call the only two trustees in the country who do that, Gold Star Trust (800) 486-6888 or Sterling Trust (800) 955-3434.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, January 29, 2008

The Gold & Silver Price Rally Stands a Long Way From Its End

Gold Price Close Today : 925.10
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 927.10
Change: -2.00 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.745
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.69
Change: 5.5 cents or 0.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.55
US Dollar Index Close Yesterday: 75.566
Change: -0.02 or 0.0%

The GOLD and SILVER PRICE rally stands a long way from its end. My technical friend RL called today -- his gold price target is US$1,030 and his silver price target is $21.60. From here, that's quite reasonable.

Silver offers your best risk/reward ratio right now. Judging from the seasonal chart, you could see these prices by mid- or end-February.

Stocks most likely have bottomed, although there's a good chance they will re-visit their lows before a longer rally begins. If Balloon Ben & the Fed keep inflating even unto hyper-inflation, then stocks will keep rising, although they will also keep on losing value, faster & faster, against silver & gold. I'm as certain as I ever get that they will keep on inflating. Other less likely outcome is that stocks rally slightly, then crash through previous lows and continue to drop toward the earth's core.

'Tis impossible to judge value if you measure in US dollars. Like trying to shoot skeet off the end of a bass boat in a storm -- everything is changing. So you have to toss out thinking in dollars & start thinking in silver & gold. You also have to sell stocks as fast as you can for silver & gold (yes, that includes your IRA or 401k.)

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, January 28, 2008

Clearly, Silver and Gold Prices Have Broken Out of Their Corrections for a New Leg Up

Gold Price Close Today : 927.10
Gold Price Close 12th of January: 880.80
Change: 46.30 or 5.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.69
Silver Price Close 12th of January: 16.138
Change: 55.2 cents or 3.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.566
US Dollar Index Close 12th of January: 76.384
Change: -0.818 or -1.1%

Since I was traveling Friday and missed sending a commentary, I'm giving y'all a weekly summary today.

Clearly, SILVER AND GOLD PRICES have broken out of their corrections for a new leg up. The gold price decisively smashed the $915 resistance today. The silver price smashed $15.50 long ago, & now $16.30.

Figuring targets from here is tricky business -- new territory. Silver could add $5 from here, or even reach $24. Don't waste your breath calling me crazy, I'm just reading a chart.

Till now the gold/silver ratio has been remaining remarkably steady. It's about time for the silver price to put on that famous overdrive that it usually kicks in late in a gold rally. The gold price seems fated to hit $1,000. On a spike (who knows?) it could reach $1,100 or $1,200.

The US DOLLAR looks terrible and can't hold on above 76, but against it the [even sorrier] euro begins to hint at topping. Political pressure must be mounting on Euro central bank to lower rates, & in today's world, politics always trumps good sense.

Silver shows a strong seasonal pattern to top in mid-February while gold shows a similar but much weaker tendency. Rally has several weeks to run. Volatility will be fierce.

I am still buying silver & gold.

It looks like the whole world is flying apart, but remember what a friend of mine once told me, a factor that works strongly against collapses: Every morning 5 billion people get up thinking, "How am I going to make things work out today" instead of "What am I going to do when everything collapses."

Most likely stocks made an interim bottom last week, from which they will stage a rally. From our standpoint, only purpose of that rally is to shed whatever stocks you still hold, and to put the proceeds into silver & gold.

I prove my argument -- that stocks are in a long term (15-20 year) bear market against metals by pointing to the trend of the last 7 years, wherein the Dow has lost more than 65% of its value against silver & gold. More than two- thirds, but this is far from finished. Stocks will continue to drop against gold from the present 13.36 oz to 2 oz or less. Against silver, stocks will drop from the 742 oz. presently needed to buy the Dow to somewhere under 50 oz. Don't fight that tide.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Stick With Silver & Gold - It will Rise Up Out of This

Gold Price Close Today : 882.50
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 889.60
Change: -7.10 or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.902
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.030
Change: -12.8 cents or -0.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.48
US Dollar Index Close Yesterday: 76.32
Change: 0.16 or 0.2%

Somebody attacked SILVER and GOLD PRICES today. Hmmmm . . . Now WHO would be selling silver & gold? Huh? Who? Cui bono? Could it be the Nice Government Men? All is rotten, hard to read anything. Government known to intervene in stocks, known to have intervened & authorized by law to intervene in gold -- how can we know what to expect.

"If they do these things in the green tree, what will they do in the dry?"

It's taking all the Nice Government Men can do to raise the Dow. Dropped 200 pts early today, & at 13:00 Central Time is still down 80. If 3/4 pt surprise rate cut can do no more than this, what will they do when things get really bad?

Back to King Canute. He ordered the tide to recede to chasten his flattering courtiers. Reality will chasten our modern day flatterers of state arrogance. They will hyperinflate their whole system into the abyss. Stick with the silver & gold -- it will rise up out of this. Ride the phoenix!

I have to be away from this afternoon through Friday. Be calm, be careful, stay with silver & gold.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Setup for a Wild Ride on Wave 3 Up

Gold Price Close Today : 889.60
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 862.30
Change: 27.3 or 3.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.030
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 15.570
Change: 46 cents or 2.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.32
US Dollar Index Close Yesterday: 77.03
Change: -0.71 or -0.9%

SILVER & GOLD PRICES had made up all of yesterday's losses by the time markets opened this morning. That clears up the chart -- yesterday ended the last downwave of the correction -- & sets up silver and gold prices for a wild ride on wave 3 up. Hang on to your cars, Tourists, because this roller coaster is climbing!

Technically, as long as the GOLD PRICE holds $860 & the SILVER PRICE holds $15.50 they remain in their uptrend. First silver target aims for $21.00, then $24.00. The gold price is still aiming at least at $980.

Odd -- have y'all noticed the way silver & gold are sticking to each other like two flies that fell in a glue pot? The ratio hardly changes. From this point the ratio ought to break down as silver passes & outpaces gold. Ought to.

My granddaddy taught me that when you find yourself in a hole, first thing you do is stop digging. This, of course, cannot be taught to goverments & their flunkies, so this morning with the stock market's Wheaties Bustin' Ben Bernanke's Fed announced a surprise, never-before-seen-before-breakfast 3/4% rate cut. Even from Tennessee you could hear all the currency & stock traders spewing milk & Wheaties all over the kitchen as they grabbed their coats & rushed to work to short dollars & stocks.

Whooooo -- they also bought gold & silver.

What moved the Mighty Bernanke Superbanker to such unbankerly abandon? Why, tumbling stock markets around the globe. Shanghai down 7.2% Tuesday, 13% for the year; Hong Kong crashing -8.7%, down 22% for the year; Australia dropped 7.1%, the Nikkei burned up 5.6%, while the Indian Sensex opened down 10%, traded as low as -13%, then ended down only 5%. Oh, how great the pain, all courtesy of the US, it's criminal bankers, & their government thugs (a.k.a. the Nice Government Men). Great job, boys! Keep on digging that hole!

Thanks to Big Ben, the US Dollar puked back all 63 basis points it had climbed yesterday. Hang the dollar, we've gotta save our cronies on Wall Street! Folks, my friend RL the Super-technician remarked today that history would note this as the "Day the Hyper-inflation Began." God have mercy on all of us.

If you had not yet sold your stocks, watch for any rebound, which ought to come soon, & sell then. Put the proceeds into silver & gold -- this bull market has only barely begun.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, January 21, 2008

Be Calm: Panic Affects Every Market, but Silver & Gold will Grab On

Gold Price Close Today : 862.30
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 880.80
Change: -18.50 or -2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.570
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.138
Change: -56.8 cents or -3.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 77.03
US Dollar Index Close Late Friday: 76.384
Change: 0.64 or 0.8%

US Markets are closed today, but because of world-wide stock market turmoil & because I will not be sending commentaries this week due to travel, I wanted to write y'all.

First, stock markets around the world tumbled: Japan down 4%, France & Germany down 7%, China & Great Britain, down 5% -- 42 of 43 stock markets dropped, with the exception of Sri Lanka, where apparently communications with the outside world had been cut (or they just ignored the news).

Estimates show the US Dow Jones Industrial Average opening 400 - 500 points lower in the morning. Reason given for the drops is nervousness that US subprime crisis will spread worldwide. Here's news, fellows, it already has.

If you own stocks, prepare for pain tomorrow. No matter what happens tomorrow, or where the eventual bottom & springboard for a rally comes, use the rally off those lows to dump the rest of your stocks.

But swap them into silver & gold? What? With the GOLD PRICE dropping $18.50 & the SILVER PRICE 56.8 cents today? Be calm: panic affects every market, but silver & gold will grab on.

Metals were hurt today by the Euro's fall against the US Dollar, mirrored in the Dollar Index's gian of 65 basis points -- huge -- and close over 77 at 77.029.

No doubt the Nice Government Men on the Plunge Protection Team & all those other Protectors of Profits as Wall Street Knows Them will be up all night, cooking up some scheme to jack up the stock market. Forget it. They will gesticulate helplessly, like King Canute ordering back the tide, but unlike the wise Canute will point to each advancing wave as proof of "their" power -- before the wave retreats again.

I don't know what y'all do, but when it looks like the world is about to blow apart and I'm sitting in front of the explosion, I run back to Ps. 118:6 or 2 Timothy 1:7. What's happening here lies way past my cure or cleverness.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, January 18, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices May Trade Downside the First Couple of Days Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : 880.80
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 896.10
Change: -15.3 or -1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.138
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.273
Change: -13.5 cents or -0.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.384
US Dollar Index Close Late Friday: 76.019
Change: 0.365 or 0.5%

In the past couple of months gold and silver price corrections have not offered us that second chance markets usually extend to the patient. I mean that instead of correcting in 3 waves -- A down, B up, C down -- the corrections have fallen to an initial low, then turned up without looking back. Today has persuaded me that although silver & gold prices may trade downside the first couple of days next week, gold prices shouldn't break $850 nor silver $15.73. The market has handed y'all a buying opportunity -- seize it! More rally is coming!

Today the GOLD/SILVER RATIO broke down into new low territory, 54.59. Does that signal the second phase of a metal's advance, the one where silver runs faster than gold? I think so.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rose 18 basis points, but is still lolly-gagging along -- not terribly inspiring. The Dollar is like the least ugly dog in the pet store window. It's awfully ugly, but not as ugly as the other dogs (the Euro & Yen).

Stocks have indeed fallen lower ("Lo,how are the mighty fallen!") as I expected last week, but silver & gold hit a snag (as Red River pilots might say), while the US Dollar Index managed to inch higher. What meaneth these things? Stocks ought to stage some sort of rally around here, say, off 12,000.

Their weakness portends weighty & sad things for this year. The S&P500 has been beaten up worse than the Dow. The Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) and the Dow in Silver Ounces were both warning us that stocks were poised to lose a lot of ground to silver & gold. Both the DiG$ & the DiSoz have now made new, never before seen in this bear market lows. The DiG$ hit G$300 (14.513 oz) & believe it or not, it's record since has recalled the panic of the 1929 crash, although not as crazy.

On 25 October 1929 the Dow closed at G$301.22. The next trading day, 28 Oct., the Dow closed at G$260.64. On 8 January 2008 the Dow closed for the first time below G$300. Eight trading days later it closed at G$283.96 (13.737 oz). Not nearly as bad in 2008, but full of fear nonetheless. By the way, that 1929 slide didn't end until it hit G$198.69 on 13 Nov. 1929. Equivalent Dow today would be 8,458.23. I'm not predicting the Dow will hit that number soon (I actually expect a small short rally) but it do pique the attention, now don't it?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, January 17, 2008

If the Gold Price Drops Below $860, then the Rally Has Ended

Gold Price Close Today : 879.50
Change: -1.10 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.93
Change: -12.3 cents or -0.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.20
Change: -0.11 or -0.1%


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Sorry I missed sending a commentary yesterday. I had to deliver some pigs to Sequatchie and pick up a Jersey cow.

If the GOLD PRICE drops below $860, then the rally has ended & gold is beginning a much larger correction which would carry down to $820 or $800. Indicators like RSI and MACD strongly suggest correction lies in store.

Silver's chart resembles gold's, but both have me scratching my head. Both broke out of consolidations. Normally that should send them a lot higher. Both metals are strong against the yen and the euro. Both have also reached the top of their Bollinger bands. That's a measure that shows the upper & lower limits of " normal" price movements.

So why am I fighting so hard against the conclusion that a correction has come? I don't know. Neither metal has run as far up as I thought it should. But now I am imposing my expectations on the market, instead of listening to what it says. I will put my hand over my mouth, & wait.

STOCKS, on the other hand, seem to have reached the limit of lowness, only to go lower. The Dow chart looks like the silver & gold charts turned upside down. They have fallen as far they ought to have fallen for this drop, yet they fall further. Either this drop is drawing to an end -- even if only for a 3 week rebound -- or the bottom is going to fall out of stocks and the world.

The US DOLLAR INDEX looks like it has confirmed an uptrend with a double bottom above its December low in a series of higher lows. Don't expect the dollar to make a big rally quickly, and the chart doesn't say anything about the dollar collapsing any time soon.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Gold & Silver will Keep on Rising, with a Minimum Gold Target of US$980

Gold Price Close Today : 901.60
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 896.10
Change: 5.50 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.325
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.273
Change: 5.2 cents or 0.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.62
US Dollar Index Close Yesterday: 76.019
Change: -0.40 or -0.5%

I'm not one to toot my own horn, but what's one little toot going to hurt, now and then? I told y'all the SILVER PRICE & GOLD PRICE would be higher today, &, I suspect, will keep climbing all week.

Today in gold & silver felt like those days when gold was flirting with 800 (only a few short weeks ago, recall)when 'twould be knocked down right before the end of the day to the 790s, then work its way higher, even above 800, in the aftermarket. For the first time in cosmic history, gold closed over US$900 today, at 901.60.

Silver also posted a new high close at 1632.50 cents. In just six trading days, silver has added nearly a dollar,98 cents, or about 6.5%. This rise has not ended. In fact, now that gold has pierced & beaten back the US$900 boogeyman, the followers will swarm in like poor relatives to Howard Hughes' funeral.

Gold & silver will keep on rising, with a minimum gold target of US$980. Silver could stop at 1800, or push right on through to 2500. Sound crazy, don't I, but I'm just as sane as a cold shower on a sober morning.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO has inched down, & should be preparing itself for a breathtaking sprint past gold -- should be. Let's watch.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, the clown of international currencies, sank today well below the 76 mark to close at 75.61, and lower than the last low close 6 days ago. Should the buck not scrabble & catch hold here (can you hear the gravel flicking down the rock face over the edge of the cliff?) 'twill sink back to the last low at 75, even below 75. Never mind the fainting spells & other hysteria, later this year we should see a dollar rally.

The Dow & S&P500 & other STOCK indices rose today, but then, who would that surprise, after such a long losing streak. Not yet decided is whether stocks have made an interim bottom for a counter-trend rally, or whether without intermission, let, or hindrance they will continue to sink toward the earth's core. I am opinionless, because it matters not to one who long ago sold stocks & put the proceeds into silver & gold, as I heartily recommend y'all do as soon as possible.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, January 11, 2008

Why is Gold Going Higher?

Gold Price Close Today : 896.10
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 863.10
Change: 33.00 or 3.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.273
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 15.346
Change: 92.7 cents or 6%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.019
US Dollar Index Close Late Friday: 75.919
Change: 0.100 or 0.1%

Here's my whole hog commentary:

Gold is going higher.
Silver is going higher, faster.
Stocks are going lower.
Dollar is going sideways, bottoming,& will rally later before first half ends.
Buy gold.
Buy more silver.
Sell stocks & any assets that will pay future US Dollars.

Anything I say past that is gilding the lily, but gild I will (because y'all expect more words out of me).

Why is silver going higher?


Because it has closed well above the previous high (1549.9 in November), & because silver usually outperforms gold in latter part of gold rally.

Why is gold going higher?

My minimum target for this rally is 980, & in a spike may reach US$1,100 by end of February. Wave of fiat money pouring out of world's central banks is driving gold up against all currencies. Breakout this week is technical equivalent of methamphetamine to markets.

Why are stocks going lower?

All indices have broken not only August but also November lows. Primary Dow bear signal flashed at 12,850 & market has fallen much lower. Dow in Gold Dollars broke down thru G$300 (14.513 oz) this week & closed at G$290.81 (14.068 oz) today. DiG$ has never lied to us, & now testifies "Stocks going much lower against gold." Dow in silver ounces today reached same price as May 2006, ready to break down further next week.

What about the US Dollar?

Trading tiresomely back & forth, it has traced out an embryonic uptrend. Will rally later, as it needs a lot of time to bottom.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, January 10, 2008

If Silver and Gold Price Rise Again Tomorrow, Keep on Buying. This is not the Time to Sell Gold and Silver

Gold Price Close Today : 891.70
Change: 12.20 or 1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.173
Change: 43.9 cents or 2.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.86
Change: -0.60 or -0.8%

Many think that the Gold Price is finished or peaking, but I think they're flat wrong. Yes, I understand that it made a new all-time high today, but remains strong as 8 acres of garlic, and way shy of my minimum target of $980. Close today was $891.70, up a huge $12.20, and it rose more in the aftermarket to $892.40.

Silver Prices little by little, line by line, are gaining on gold. Today's $16.25 high was two cents shy of the November high. Will it fail tomorrow to break through that barrier? No, I don't think so, although I confess I feel somewhat lonely with that opinion. The silver price is about to break out & stagger every onlooker with its performance. Above this silver price stands resistance at $18 and then $25. Right, looks crazy but 'tis true.

We are now in outer space, & anything can happen.

If silver & gold prices rise again tomorrow, keep on buying. This is not the time to sell gold and silver.

The US DOLLAR spilled its basket again today, dropping 60 basis points to close well below 76 at 75.863. That's below the 50 DMA (76.21). Chart suggests it MAY have bottomed but wholly without enthusiasm.

This is really getting entertaining. The Dow today sank till about 12:30, then got a sudden goose -- faded again down to 12,700, then the sudden goose. Ended the day up 117.78 at 12,853.09. Not too subtle, Nice Government Men. Ominously, the Dow in Gold Dollars (the Dow valued in gold) closed the day down G$1.33 at G$297.97 (14.414 oz), still unable to regain the ground above G$300.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Gold Prices Are Not So Overbought As to Make Big Corrections Likely.

Gold Price Close Today : 879.50
Change: 1.5 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.734
Change: 0.027 cents or 0.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.46
Change: 0.34 or 0.5%

GOLD'S track yesterday & today doesn't look like the end of a move, but a pause for breath after Lap # 1. Tomorrow gold could weaken, but as long as it closeth not below $875, okay. Should start to rise again Friday or Monday. Or, then again, gold might just keep on rallying tomorrow & tear clean through US$900.

SILVER PRICES hit a new high for this move(16.16) and brushed close to its November high at $16.275. 'Twould be normal, usual, ordinary to take a rest here -- a 2-day correction, say, which would create no alarm, given it holds $15.25 or higher.

Neither silver nor gold prices are so overbought as to make big corrections likely. Rather, they ought to make a couple of more squiggles, then blast higher. If y'all are putting off buying silver or gold to see if they will correct, events will prove you wrong. This rocket is leaving gravity's pull behind.

The silly US DOLLAR INDEX rallied about 34 basis points today. That might have accounted for the metals' weakness in the aftermarket. Dollar remains in no-man's land.

Yesterday's commentary warned that new price extremes, high or low, often mark turning points. The art is knowing whether things are turning around, or merely speeding up in the same direction.

So right on cue the Dow about-faced today. Here's how MSN.com reported it, with a straight face, I promise:

"A sudden, powerful rally kicked in this afternoon [about 2:10 p.m], reversing the waves of selling that have plagued the stock market since New Year's." The reversal began, they tell us, when the Dow hit 12,500, down 80 points from Tuesday.

Now said Dow was long overdue for a corrective rally. Today's rise might have been round number short covering/buying, but then again, it could have been the Nice Government Men on the Plunge Protection Team. I don't know myself, & I think it's ridiculous, a sign of a government gone Looney Tunes, that we even have to consider such corrupt rascality, but there it is. And if I were an NGM on the PPT charged with safeguarding Wall Street's profits, I would not hit while the market is stable, but would wait until the emboldened shorts had o'erreached themselves, & I would rush in buying index options like a drunk at a cardboard box wine sale.

Let it be -- I find such chicanery too painful to contemplate, taking (as it does) all the fun out of the world, & all the truth out of markets. The Dow should (in any event, naturally or man-made) rally toward its 50 DMA (13,279) or resistance a 13,000. How it behaves when it arrives there will discover to us whether this is merely a dead-cat corrective bounce, or the start of a substantial rally.

Truth to tell, I don't much care because I am certain stocks will drop further this year against gold & silver, & I advised y'all months & years ago to swap stocks for silver & gold. Today the Dow's rally didn't take it very far against gold. The Dow in Gold Dollars rallied from yesterday's G$296.40 (14.338 oz) to today's G$299.33 (14.48 oz), yet still hath not managed to climb above G$300.00.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Gold Prices Gapped Up, Which I Call a "Runaway Gap" Signaling Much Higher Gold Prices Coming Very, Very Quickly

Gold Price Close Today : 878.00
Change: 18.40 or 2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.707
Change: 52.7 cents or 3.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.12
Change: -0.05 or -0.1%

The Gold Price breached $865 today, & stopped stuttering all of a sudden.

Upon any such extreme move up or down, every trader ought to ask himself,"Is that the blow-off that signals a turnaround?" So we ought to ask both stocks & gold today. Certainly, stocks had better turnaround here, or the Nice Government Men have a bona fide crash on their hands.

Can GOLD PRICES go higher? Why not? On the Forex chart today (but not on all the futures charts) gold prices gapped up, which I call a "runaway gap" signaling much higher gold prices coming very, very quickly. It's quite frightening, really, paired as it is with a stock market falling 960 in the last 9 trading days.

US DOLLAR frittered away 5 basis points today while the world was falling apart around it. The NGM have decided to throw you, me, and all the rest of the "cattle" on the fire & let the dollar collapse to bail out the massively in debt US economy.

Either run for cover, or become their victim. Me, I loathe them too much to co-operate, especially in my own destruction.

Now pardon me, while I parade before y'all some numbers I find fascinating. Can't imagine how I overlooked it, but the 1929 Dow top was G$381.17 (they were all gold dollars in those days). Heaven & earth are filled with more things than I understand, but I have observed that markets tend to trade back to old support. But 79 years, now that's old. Still, there was a support area about G$380 in these last months.

That so picqued my curiosity that I went back to check the 1929 Dow's activity, because today the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) crossed a momentous milestone: it dropped below G$300 (14.513 oz. of gold to buy the entire Dow). What happened in 1929 when the Dow dropped thru G$300? The first day that happened was 24 October 1929, when it closed at G$299.47. Next day it closed up at G$301.22. But the next day the Dow traded, 28 October 1929, it closed at G$260.64.

Let me bring that number up to date. With gold at US$880/oz, the G$260.64 DiG$ equals a raw Dow of 11,095.44, a 1,494 point drop from today's close.

By 13 November 1929, 10 trading days later, the Dow closed at G$198.69, equal in 2007 to Dow 8,458.23, or 4,131 points lower than today's close.

Carefully note that I am not predicting these numbers, just comparing today's closes with 1929's, on the momentous occasion of the Dow closing below G$300 for the first time in its post-1999 bear market against gold.

Anyway you view it stocks were thrashed today. Dow down 238.34 to 12,589.15, lower than the August & November lows; S&P500 down 26 at 1,390.18, below the magic 1,400; Nasdaq Comp down 58.95 at 2,440.51, & the Nasdaq 100 down 47.11 to 1,910.33.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, January 07, 2008

If the Gold Price Fell all the Way to $830, it Would Only Constitute a Touch-back to the Breakout Point

Gold Price Close Today : 859.60
Change: -3.50 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.180
Change: -16.6 cents or -1.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.16
Change: 25 cents or 0.3%


There's really not much to say about today's markets, because nothing much happened.

The GOLD PRICE is stuttering at $865, & fell back US$3.50 today. Personally I would like it to stay about $857, because there's a sort of air pocket between $857 & $835. Yet if gold fell all the way to $830, it would only constitute a touch-back to the breakout point, a commonly seen action. I am still looking for $1,000 gold by the end of February.

The SILVER PRICE will work your emotions over, won't it. It fell 16.6 cents today, with a low of $15.06. That $15 mark stands high in everybody's mind as a round number, so it offers psychological support. In fact, as long as silver stays above $14.75 we ought to see a rally.

STOCKS climbed a magnificent 27.31 points on the Dow, and a stunning 4.55 points on the S&P500. Wow. The NASDAQ dropped again today, & it had already closed Friday below its November & August lows. Stocks may be trying to find a bottom, but not yet, not yet. Swap stocks for silver s& gold while they still have
value.

US DOLLAR INDEX rallied above 76 today to close at 76.164, up about 25 basis points. Lo, how are the mighty fallen, and unpitied, too. The dollar did it to itself, or, more precisely, the dollar's masters have done it to themselves. Trouble is, they are doing it to us, too, & I don't want to play the game of poverty. I have spent too much of my life there already, thanks in no small part to government policies, & so have you. Who needs 'em? Better shuck those dollar-paying assets as quickly as you can. Look for a rally in March to June, but 'twill only be the twitching of a corpse, not a resurrection.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger



Friday, January 04, 2008

Be on Guard With Silver and Gold for a Sudden Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 863.10
Gold Price Close December 28th : 839.60
Change: 23.50 or 2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.346
Silver Price Close December 28th: 14.77
Change: 57.6 cents or 3.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.919


Be on guard with silver & gold for a sudden correction. Both have put in astounding performances this week, but be on guard anyway. Over the next 8 weeks or so gold ought to rally to at least $1,000 & on a spike might reach $1,200. Silver needs a swift kick to get going, although this week it hasn't danced badly. Still, this stage in a gold rally (halfway) is when silver usually begins to outpace gold.

I fear 2008 will be a tougher year for reading markets than 2007 was -- mercy. And full of bad surprises for those in stocks & real estate. Dollar will rally in the second quarter, but it won't hurt silver & gold much, as presently gold has broken out upside against the Euro (that ridiculous Frankenstein currency with more holes, scars, and stitching than the ridiculous dollar) and has almost broken out against the Yen, another preposterous fiat currency backed by -- nothing!

What does that mean? That gold, the master alternative currency, is rallying against all sorry unbacked fiat central bank currencies. Defend yourself this year by getting as liquid as possible, paying down all debt, & fleeing from stocks and central bank currencies into silver & gold. Brace yourselves for a turbulent year!

Let loose the dogs of collapse & rally!

Stocks have performed wretchedly, miserably this week. They opened the year lower. Great start. Today the Dow closed below its August low (12,846) and 1.14 points above its November low (12,799.04), the lowest price since August. What do you call a series of lower highs and lower lows? Right, a downtrend. And the poor S&P500 closed a bare 11 points above 1400 and infamy.

Against gold the Dow reached a new low in this bear market that began in August 1999: G$306.57 (14.830 oz). The Dow in Gold Dollars is also signaling like a Confederate semaphore corporal that stocks are fixing to drop much, much more against gold. Against silver the Dow sank today to 834.11 oz, down over 67% from its June 2001 high at 2,566 oz. Please, while there's still time, swap stocks for silver & gold.

The feckless US DOLLAR INDEX is behaving like a banana-republic currency trying to rally. Oh, it probably will rally later this year, but first it must torture all the onlookers. Flee all dollar paying assets while you still have time: bank deposits, certificates of deposit, bonds, annuities, pensions. The buzzards who run the US monetary system -- no, vampires is the more precise word -- are bleeding y'all dry, yet y'all sit still for it. Why?

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger



Thursday, January 03, 2008

Flee all Assets that Promise to Pay Future Dollars, & Place the Proceeds into Silver & Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 866.40
Change: $9.40 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.382
Change: 21 cents or 1.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.88
Change: -0.12 or -0.2%

The GOLD PRICE jumped another US $9.40 today to close at US$866.40 while the SILVER PRICE leapt 21.50 cents to close at 1538.20 cents. So far, so good, but there's just one little thing nagging at me. More of that below.

STOCKS bravely did nothing today, the Dow rising 12.76 while the S&P 500 remained unchanged. Of course, the Dow did something when measured against gold by the Dow in Gold Dollars. The DiG$ closed at another new post-1999-high low, G$311.53 (15.070 ounces -- how's that for a confusing sentence?) Point is, stocks continue to lose value against gold and against silver, just as the DiG$ keeps on forecasting.

For the last 5 years or so I have in every commentary urged y'all to swap stocks for silver & gold. In the meantime, stocks have lost about half their value against silver & gold. How much longer do y'all want to wait?

The US DOLLAR INDEX presents one of the worst challenges a writer ever faced. How do you keep on inventing, day after day after day, a new metaphor to describe something that unfailingly sinks? Yes, yes, I know that it is most likely in the process of turning around, and that will take a while. But by the time the dollar gets turned around there may not be any road left. Flee all assets that promise to pay future dollars, & place the proceeds into silver & gold. Those assets include bank deposits, certificates of depreciation -- whoops, make that certificates of deposit -- annuities, bonds, pensions.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped 3/10% today, and should soon begin a steep decline. Last call for swaps out of gold into silver!

Why have premiums on gold & silver items fallen so hard? The buy side premium on 90% coin has fallen from -40 before Christmas to -70 cents now. Meanwhile gold American Eagle premiums have fallen from over 3% to 2% or less. That may reflect passing cash flow problems, or too many sellers facing too few buyers. Either way, it is a small check on a metals' bull's enthusiasm.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Gold Price will hit $1000 in Eight Weeks or So and Could Touch $1100 or $1200 Before It Corrects

Gold Price Close Today : 857.00
Change: $22.10 or 2.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.167
Change: 37 cents or 2.5% %

US Dollar Index Today: 76.00
Change: -0.48 or -0.6%

On 28 December I wrote y'all about the GOLD PRICE closing at a new high (839.60). "Now for a clean breakout you'd like to see a close 2% or 3% above the last high close, say 852 to 860.25." Well, you got that today in spades. The gold price leapt $22.10 to $857.00, while silver bounded up 37 cents to close at $15.167

About moves like this -- where gold breaks into higher territory than it hath ever traded in the US dollar's history -- what can anyone say? All along I have suspected that gold's December correction was a half-way correction. If that's correct, then the gold price will hit US$1,000.00 in eight weeks or so. Depending on how crazy it gets at that peak, gold could touch $1,100 or $1,200 before it corrects.

Make no mistake: you just heard the whistle blowing for the last train leaving the station. Buy gold & silver now or get left behind.

The US DOLLAR fell nearly 50 basis points today. Again. Dollar rally's taking off like a pregnant bat with concrete overshoes. By the way, silver & gold stand at range-top against the Yen & Euro. That argues metals are about to break out against those currencies as well as the dollar.

STOCKS simply cannot get up in the air. Mmmmmm . . .A series of lower lows & lower highs, plus falling below 50 DMA & 200 Day Moving Average. Now, what do you call that? Can anybody spell D-O-W-N-T-R-E-N-D. I don't think they're coming back. The Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) today fell to a new low since the bear market of stocks against gold began in 1999, namely, G$314.64 (15.221 oz). Swap stocks now for silver and gold, while there are still buyers for them.

If you still want to swap gold for silver, do so now. Stop waiting for a higher ratio. The gold price rally has now resumed, & since (I'm guessing) it has about its "halvecors yronne" (run half its course, for you non-Chaucer readers), the silver price should kick in soon & begin to outperform gold.

The kindness & fervour of your response to my request for prayers for my grand-daughter, Caroline, in her heart surgery, & my great-nephew, Colin, in his cancer surgery, has left me humbled & grateful. Please accept my most hearty thanks. Caroline came home from the hospital on 30 December, and today weighed in at her heaviest weight in her life: ten pounds. We don't know yet the story on Colin's tumour, but he's cheerful & perky.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.