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Monday, June 30, 2008

By End October $1300 Gold Price and $31 Silver Price are Possible

Gold Price Close Today : 926.20
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 929.10
Change: -3.10 or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.42
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.57
Change: -20 cents or -1.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.46
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.299
Change: 0.16 or 0.2%

The GOLD PRICE was easier to read today than the SILVER PRICE. It dropped back to support at 918.75, then closed higher -- oh, yes, down for the day, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Markets very often -- most of the time -- after a breakout will fall back to the breakout point (resistance now become support) in what I call a touchback. Think of baseball, where after a fly out the runner has to run back and tag the base before he runs to the next base. Same idea.

The SILVER PRICE has established short term support now at $17.20. Today it lost 20 cents to close at $17.42 cents, still well above the 50 day moving average (DMA, now $17.06) and within the uptrend. I expect silver and gold prices to rise tomorrow or the next day, because they have broken out of their correction range and begun the next leg up. By end October $1,300 gold price and $31 silver price are possible. I'm holding back. If the gold/silver ratio drops to 35:1, where it's next move ought to stop, $1,300 gold puts the silver at $37.14.

Yea, it soundeth crazy to me, too, but I have consistently underestimated this bull market's strength. I'm learning that these numbers are possible, indeed, likely. Be ready for surprises.

If y'all have not yet bought or added silver and gold, now's the time.

Most of the day the Dow knocked on the ceiling at 11,440, but couldn't break through. Then it couldn't break through 11,400, and toward day's end it just waterfalled down to 11,350, a measly 3.5 points gain. Friends, y'all are witnessing the decline I have so often warned you of. If you still have stocks, swap them for silver and gold -- before it's too late.

The US DOLLAR index today rose about 15 basis points, after dropping to a new low for the move. After four down days, that has the look of a stop-and-turn-around, but the dollar is so sick it's hard to tell. It certainly offers no big challenge to gold or silver any time soon.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 27, 2008

Everything is in Place for Higher Silver and Gold Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 929.10
Gold Price Close June 20th: 900.40
Change: 28.70 or 3.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.57
Silver Price Close June 20th: 17.387
Change: 18.30 cents or 1.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.299
US Dollar Index June 20th: 73.053
Change: -0.754 or -1.0%

'Twasn't a good week for stocks & the US Dollar. Mercy.

The US DOLLAR INDEX fell below its 50 day moving average (DMA, now 72.91) and rests now at 72.299, down 75 big basis points from last week. Now it is working on reaching the May low at 71.90. Poor Helicopter Ben Bernanke! Nothing he is trying works!

What's a central banker to do? He'll be laughed out of the monthly suppers at the Bank for International Settlements.

Oil climbed over $140 today. Does anybody in Washington realize that oil over $140, the Dollar Index at little more than half its 2002 rate, gold nearing US$1,000 an ounce, and the stock market threatening to return to 9,750 looks like all the pieces are falling apart, all at once?

The really big down moves in stocks haven't yet taken place. Between 11,750 and 10,680, there's no support, just air. As I have urged since memory runneth not to the contrary, swap stocks for silver & gold.

In the last two days the GOLD PRICE has gained US$49.10 and run slap up against the Big Resistance, the last high at US$928. Does today's marginally higher close constitute a genuine breakout? Let's see on Monday. It must gain on Monday, but cannot fiddle around here at this level. I expect higher prices, next week.

The SILVER PRICE has gained $1.07 in the last two days, but has (unlike gold) not reached its last high at $18.24. The silver price must clear that hurdle before we can pronounce the correction finished. I expect we will see that within the next 8 trading days.

For silver and gold prices, this week was a great show of strength. Both recovered from bad falls and vicious attacks, and rose to levels ready to challenge old lows. Meanwhile the US dollar can't hold on, so everything is in place for higher silver and gold prices.

My friend BL, Technician Extraordinaire, rebuked my anxiety about the gold/silver ratio by reminding me that in strong rallies, gold usually leads silver. Therefore, the lagging gold/silver ratio presents no problem to a metals rally. BL also reminded me of something else, that this leg down in the ratio would be a "3 of 3", that is, a third wave down in a bigger third wave down. Me, I gave up on Elliot Wave analysis years ago as a subject like ballet, which I simply cannot parse. But BL loves Elliot Wave, and he sees a "3 of 3" coming in the ratio, which means (1) a huge move down in the gold/silver ratio and (2) a huge move up in silver and in gold prices.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 26, 2008

The Silver Price Finished the Day up 62 cents, and the Gold Price up a Whopping $33.10

Gold Price Close Today : $913.10
Gold Price Close Yesterday: $880.00
Change: $33.10 or 3.8%

Silver Price Close Today : $17.12
Silver Price Close Yesterday: $16.499
Change: 62 cents or 3.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.49
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.91
Change: -0.41 or -0.6%

In yesterday's aftermarket the SILVER PRICE had already risen 20 cents and GOLD PRICE six or seven bucks. This morning they exploded. The silver price finished the day up 62 cents, and the gold price up a whopping $33.10. However, let us not be coy. Thrilling as this show is, it meaneth naught unless gold can close through the last high at US$928 and silver can best $18.24. True, on the charts both broke out to the upside today past the dropping trendlines, but the old lows must be beaten to confirm.

What I like least is that gold/silver ratio behaving so strangely. Gold is definitely leading this move, but silver is -- literally -- moving in lock step. What is driving gold? How much fear is stirring out there? In whom? What are they afraid of? There's something bad we don't know about yet, a new crisis or vast extension of the old one.

I can only hope y'all have been paying attention these last few years, and have protected yourselves by buying silver & gold. It's not too late yet.

I reckon the question mark has left the stock market as of today. The Dow has sunk lower than its January 08 low, that is, to a new low for the move since it peaked last October. In dollar terms the Dow sank 3.03%, but that examples how we are lied to. In GOLD terms, the Dow in Gold dollars sank 6.5% today, and in silver the Dow in Silver Ounces sank 6.55%. Don't reckon you'll hear that on CBS, MSNBC, Fox, or National Proletarian Radio's Marketplace.

Dow target (assuming this is not simply the last washout of weakness before a rally) is 10,700. If that can't hold, then 9,750.

Back on 17 March, the DiG
The US DOLLAR INDEX has fallen to its bottom Bollinger Band. It must turn up here or die. Man, that Burpin' Ben Bernanke knows how to run a central bank, don't he?




Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. low for the move was G$247.14 (11.955 oz). Today it closed at G$259.30 (12.543oz.), barely G$10 (0.500 oz) above the last low close. The Dow in Silver has behaved the same way. I would swap stocks for silver or gold, now, while there's still time.

The US DOLLAR INDEX has fallen to its bottom Bollinger Band. It must turn up here or die. Man, that Burpin' Ben Bernanke knows how to run a central bank, don't he?


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 25, 2008

If This is Not a Good Place to Buy Silver and Gold, I Don't Know What Would Be

Gold Price Close Today : 880.00
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 889.20
Change: -9.20 or -1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.499
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.627
Change: -12.8 cents or -0.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.91
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.25
Change: -0.34 or -0.5%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES were both depressed today, waiting for the Committee Comrades to deliver their voice from on high. In the aftermarket the silver price rose 20 cents and the gold price rose $5 on relief from the Fed's announcement.

If this is not a good place to buy silver and gold, I don't know what would be. There's support all the way to $16.11. Same goes for gold: buy on this dip. Yes, this back and forth chop is frustrating, but you'll see it as long as this corrective triangle lasts. Be patient: Atlanta wasn't built in a day. It took decades to make a mess like that. Okay, so maybe that wasn't the happiest choice of metaphors. I just do what I can.

What planet do Busted Ben Bernanke and his Goofy Governors live on? In their statement today they opined, "The committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year." Duhhh, Gee, Ben, where duz inflashun kum frum? I dunno, jus' drops outta da sky, I guess.

Anyway, they left interest rates alone, until they panic again. The market interpreted that as a betrayal of the dollar so the US DOLLAR INDEX sank 34 points. Great work, Ben, protecting the dollar's purchasing power for the American citizen! Thanks! Hit me again, with a hammer this time, because it feels so good! US dollar index sank, in fact, below 73. Wretched, but it can recover.

And STOCKS! Did Big Ben's move ever help the stock market! The Dow rose -- get this -- four point four points! Yes! Isn't that thrilling? What a man.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Silver's Weakness Suggests Silver and Gold Prices Will Move Lower Before They Move Higher

Gold Price Close Today : 889.20
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 884.80
Change: 4.40 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.627
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.78
Change: -15.5 cents or -0.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.25
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.46
Change: -0.22 or -0.3%

Were I the Nice Government Men (those sainted and selfless monks who keep us from hurting ourselves financially by steering all our money to Wall Street's coffers) I would be getting busy saving the stock market. The Dow dropped again today, after trying to get into positive territory, but just couldn't hold that ground. If the Dow closes below 11,750, the trap door will give way. If you STILL haven't swapped stocks for silver and gold, do it now.

The US DOLLAR INDEX needed one more down day to finish a corrective leg (if that's what it is, and not another collapse into oblivion), and posted that today, down 22 basis points to 73.25. Tomorrow will probably take it lower before it finally reverses and tries once again to reach higher ground above 74.

The GOLD PRICE gained $4.40 today, but the SILVER PRICE fell back 15.5 cents. I don't like that at all, don't like the indecision of one up and the other down, don't like silver's weakness. It suggests silver and gold prices will move lower before they move higher.

HOWEVER, don't get all lathered, this ought to be contained by the current triangle, not movements to new lows.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO moved to 53.479, just a breath from the 200 DMA at 53.642. Frankly, I'd be glad if it hit the 200 DMA, because it would confirm my expectation that silver and gold have bottomed.

Remember that the Gold/Silver ratio (the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold) falls in a bull market because silver tends to rise faster than gold (not every day but over the long term). When the ratio corrects, of course, it moves up to its 200 DMA.

If y'all wonder why I keep talking about the 200 day moving average, it's because markets tend to return to that 200 DMA from time to time. In bull markets, the market normally trades above they 200 DMA and for corrections occasionally revisits or drops below the 200 DMA. That's the perfect time to buy more. In bear markets (like the Gold and Silver ratio right now) the market is normally dropping, so the 200 DMA stands above it. Whenever the market rallies up to the 200 DMA, that's the time to sell more.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 23, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Dropped From one Side of a Corrective Triangle to Another

Gold Price Close Today : 884.80
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 900.40
Change: -16.50 or -1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.780
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.387
Change: 60 cents or -3.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.46
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 73.053
Change: 0.41 or 0.6%

Surprise! We're not in the promised land yet. Thus today's turnaround in silver and gold prices should not shock y'all, given all my warnings about chopping back and forth in this narrow corrective triangle.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES were high on Friday, low on Monday. Hmmm . . . What does that say? Perhaps the short-sellers (shorts) threw in the towel last Friday so they could drive out to Long Island for the weekend and enjoy their martinis without worrying about an open position. Then they come back to work on Monday and start the week by selling silver and gold -- hard. "Let's try it again this week!"

Both silver and gold prices dropped from one side of a corrective triangle to another. Looking at today's chart, the gold price went below $900 -- where a raft of open sell orders must have been waiting -- and dropped like a piano off the Golden Gate Bridge. Low was $875.35.

With the silver price $17.20 was key support, and when it hit a nest of sell orders below that, it didn't stop until it hit $16.51.

But note: both metals remain in their corrective triangles, and these lows are higher than previous lows. The 200 day moving averages for both metals (now $16.11 and $860.16) have risen so much since this correction started in March that even if the metals do eventually cap their correction by re-visiting the 200 DMA, it won't be much of a drop.

Once again, as long as silver and gold remain above the 1 May crash lows ($16.11 and $848.90) they are recovering well. Continue to accumulate.

The US DOLLAR INDEX appears to have bounced off its 50 day moving average vicinity (50 DMA now at 72.84) or returned to the median of its recent trading range. It doesn’t look particularly peppy, but the dollar is not out of the running for a rally. Look for one more day testing support of that 50 DMA, then higher prices.

If stocks break 11,750, the elevator cable snaps.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 20, 2008

Today Both Silver and Gold Prices Broke Out

Gold Price Close Today : 900.40
Gold Price Close 13th of June: 870.30
Change: 30.10 or 3.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.387
Silver Price Close 13th of June: 16.54
Change: 84.70 cents or 5.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.053
US Dollar Index 13th of June: 74.04
Change: -0.987 or -1.3%

The following appeared today on the UK Telegraph newspaper website:
"The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.

"A very nasty period is soon to be upon us - be prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit strategist.

A report by the bank's research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as "all the chickens come home to roost" from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.

Such a slide on world bourses would amount to one of the worst bear markets over the last century."

Now let's look at the week's results. The SILVER PRICE climbed 84.7 cents, the GOLD PRICE rose US$30.10, the gold/silver ratio dropped 0.83, stocks took a beating (mostly today), and the US Dollar Index proved once again that the dollar can't be trusted.

Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES have been trading into long narrow triangles, a typical corrective pattern. Both were also being squeezed between their 50 & 200 DMAs. Today both silver and gold broke out, barely, above their down trend lines, and above the 50 DMAs. Yet this only constitutes the first step of a rally. Next they must beat the last highs at $18.24 and $928. Remember that markets are thin this time of year, and corrections like this are choppy, so we could see spikes up and down, but silver and gold prices have already made their bottoms on May 1. Use this time to buy more silver and gold.

As I suspected, stocks broke that support at Dow 12,000 and flew like a lead Zeppelin. Today the Dow lost 220.40 while the S&P shed 24.90 points and dropped nearly to the 11,750 support level. Between 11,750or so and 10,680, there's not much but cobwebs. Below that stocks are headed for 9,750. It's still not too late: swap stocks for silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX last Friday finally closed above 74.00, then spent all this week giving up those gains. Right now it's up to the dollar to prove itself. The 50 day moving average stands at 72.80. If the dollar can't defend that point, then there's no rally in its future, only more downside.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS dropped G$16.50 (0.798 oz) this week. When it breaks through G$250 this time it will just free fall. Pick a number -- no telling where it will stop as stocks lose more value more rapidly against gold. Against silver stocks are faring even worse.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 19, 2008

Everything is in Place for Higher Silver and Gold Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 929.10
Gold Price Close June 20th: 900.40
Change: 28.70 or 3.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.57
Silver Price Close June 20th: 17.387
Change: 18.30 cents or 1.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.299
US Dollar Index June 20th: 73.053
Change: -0.754 or -1.0%

'Twasn't a good week for stocks & the US Dollar. Mercy.

The US DOLLAR INDEX fell below its 50 day moving average (DMA, now 72.91) and rests now at 72.299, down 75 big basis points from last week. Now it is working on reaching the May low at 71.90. Poor Helicopter Ben Bernanke! Nothing he is trying works!

What's a central banker to do? He'll be laughed out of the monthly suppers at the Bank for International Settlements.

Oil climbed over $140 today. Does anybody in Washington realize that oil over $140, the Dollar Index at little more than half its 2002 rate, gold nearing US$1,000 an ounce, and the stock market threatening to return to 9,750 looks like all the pieces are falling apart, all at once?

The really big down moves in stocks haven't yet taken place. Between 11,750 and 10,680, there's no support, just air. As I have urged since memory runneth not to the contrary, swap stocks for silver & gold.

In the last two days the GOLD PRICE has gained US$49.10 and run slap up against the Big Resistance, the last high at US$928. Does today's marginally higher close constitute a genuine breakout? Let's see on Monday. It must gain on Monday, but cannot fiddle around here at this level. I expect higher prices, next week.

The SILVER PRICE has gained $1.07 in the last two days, but has (unlike gold) not reached its last high at $18.24. The silver price must clear that hurdle before we can pronounce the correction finished. I expect we will see that within the next 8 trading days.

For silver and gold prices, this week was a great show of strength. Both recovered from bad falls and vicious attacks, and rose to levels ready to challenge old lows. Meanwhile the US dollar can't hold on, so everything is in place for higher silver and gold prices.

My friend BL, Technician Extraordinaire, rebuked my anxiety about the gold/silver ratio by reminding me that in strong rallies, gold usually leads silver. Therefore, the lagging gold/silver ratio presents no problem to a metals rally. BL also reminded me of something else, that this leg down in the ratio would be a "3 of 3", that is, a third wave down in a bigger third wave down. Me, I gave up on Elliot Wave analysis years ago as a subject like ballet, which I simply cannot parse. But BL loves Elliot Wave, and he sees a "3 of 3" coming in the ratio, which means (1) a huge move down in the gold/silver ratio and (2) a huge move up in silver and in gold prices.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 17, 2008

It's Make it or Break it Time for the USD Index

Gold Price Close Today : 884.30
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 883.60
Change: 0.7 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.060
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.21
Change: 15 cents or -0.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.51
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.67
Change: -0.16 or -0.2%

I'll bet that in the last days of the Roman Empire, before the Western Empire fell, the headlines in the Roman newspapers read, "Odoacer & Germans Quiet -- Magistrates Say Nothing To Worry About." I read headlines today and think about that.

Metals were a bit confused today. Gold, platinum, and palladium all rose, however slightly, while silver fell 15 cents. However, it still appears silver and gold prices are moving higher. My interpretation remains the same: lows were made 1 May, metals now correcting, new upmove will begin by mid-August.

STOCKS seem to be wallowing in deep waters. How busy the Nice Government Men will be if stocks fall through 12,000, then 11,500, and on down. What will they do? What bogeyman will the blame? What dead and rotting rabbit will Ben Bernanke pull out of his hat?

The US DOLLAR INDEX has now dropped back to critical resistance at 73.50, in fact, stopped dead on it. It's make it or break it time. If it drops through 73.50, big trouble follows. Don't look for me to shill for the US dollar.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 16, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices are Trading Sideways, Building a Base for a Move that Ought to Start not Later than Mid-August

Gold Price Close Today : 883.60
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 870.30
Change: 13.30 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.21
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.54
Change: 67 cents or 4.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.67
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 74.04
Change: -0.37 or -0.5%

Silver's spectacular jump today, along with the dollar index's wretched collapse and stocks' confused showing, leaves me more confident than ever that silver and gold owners have placed themselves on the right side of the train.

Today the GOLD PRICE jumped up $13.30, touched its 50 DMA at $897.75, then backed off. Not only is the gold price building a sidewise triangle, it is now trading into a narrowing triangle between the 50 DMA above and 200 DMA(today $856.05) below. Perhaps if gold won't dip to visit its 200 DMA, the 200 DMA will rise up to meet gold!

How to interpret the metals' trading today? That astringent volatility points to some VERY nervous shorts, and a market that hasn't decided yet which way everything will fall out. Relax -- it's summertime and directionless markets are the rule here. Silver and gold prices are trading sideways, building a base for a move that ought to start not later than mid-August.

The DOLLAR INDEX fell away from the outside of its Bollinger Band channel, but this is not surprising. The fall, however, was a bit excessive, but was probably just touching back to 73.50 resistance/support, before it takes off -- if ever. A close below 73.50 would turn the dollar down.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 13, 2008

Don't Look for New Lows in Silver or Gold Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 870.30
Gold Price Close 6th of June: 895.40
Change: -25.10 or -2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.54
Silver Price Close 6th of June: 17.397
Change: -85.70 cents or -4.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 74.040
US Dollar Index 6th of June: 72.351
Change: 1.689 or 2.3%

Man, I hate weekends. Oh, not because they're weekends, but because governments always throw "surprise parties" over the weekend. Since Adolf Hitler governments have waited until the weekend to have "conferences" and "central bank meetings" and then they make some goof-ball announcement on Sunday, when nobody can get to a market to hedge positions, so on Monday markets go crazy. This weekend several of these meetings are going on, and the toothless warriors of the Bushite Administration -- Gentle Ben Bernanke and Hank the Heister Paulson -- have been rattling their rusty dollar sabers, touting a stronger dollar and threatening any country that doesn't line up with their plans.

Large prospect of a surprise party on Monday. Of course, the job of every analyst is to pierce the curtain of hogwash and less dainty stuff that beclouds the air to see what government apparatchiki really mean, and what their actions are really liable to accomplish. In a word, nothing and nothing. Let's not belabour things more than needful.

Oh, yes, Oh, yes, the dollar may rise a short while on their blast of hot air, but the gravity of reality will eventually bring it back down. The worst mistake you could make right now is to believe that the dollar is about to strengthen. Don't believe it. Rather, regardless any small rally the buck experiences, it is inexorably sliding toward the graveyard of all fiat currencies: nothingness.

Now to this week's markets.

The drop in SILVER and GOLD PRICES for the week looks horrifying, but in fact wasn't so bad. Today again the silver price dropped nearly to $16.20 (1624) but climbed and closed above $16.45 again, gained 8 cents in fact. Silver's failure to break down under what must have been a tidal wave of rallying-dollar-induced selling looks very strong.

Don't look for new lows in silver or gold. Those lows occurred after the crash that bottomed on 1 May. Now we have entered a frustrating, volatile narrow triangle that will nail the most seasoned trader. Just be patient, buy on any declines. "Must hold" levels are $16.45 and $867. Breakouts come above $18.24 and $925. In between, we suffer.

The US DOLLAR INDEX finally (today) broke through 73.50 and 74.00 to close at 74.04. This forecasts a rally that could reach as high as 77, and last 2 - 3 months. Use this as a heaven-sent opportunity to get out of dollars and into silver and gold. A rising dollar will create resistance for silver and gold, but only resistance. That will be overcome shortly. Oil on the other hand is much more vulnerable.

STOCKS dropped only slightly this week, belying their true weakness. The next Dow flirtation with 12,000 will probably fall through. Sell stocks and put the proceeds in silver and gold.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 12, 2008

Buy Silver and Gold on Any Declines - Look for Wide Volatility for the Next 6 - 8 weeks

Gold Price Close Today : 869.20
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 879.70
Change: -10.50 or -1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.460
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.829
Change: -37.5 cents or -2.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.86
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.24
Change: 0.62 or 0.8%

Well, the theory got proven today, as SILVER and GOLD PRICES plunged -- nay, let us say "stepped through a trap-door" -- at the opening. At one time during the day silver had dropped as low as $16.22 and gold as low as US$857. And yes, the first thing I thought about this morning as I gazed upon those vanishing numbers was, "Well, yesterday I said they were all right as long as they held above $16.45 and $867. We' ll see." Frankly, at $16.29, it looks pretty much like a foregone conclusion that silver will close below $16.45.

Yeah, but looks can fool you. Clearly, $16.30 hides strong, very strong support for silver. As does $867 for gold. How do I interpret today? It looks very strong to break that much, then close the day above key support. Did silver & gold close down? Well, yes, yes, they did, but that strong comeback tells me that huge mobs of buyers are lurking out there, waiting for bargains. That puts strong support underneath the market, and cuts short any decline.

Buy silver & gold on any declines. Look for wide volatility for the next 6 - 8 weeks. Range for that trading is $18.40 - $16.11 for silver and $848.50 to $928 for gold. Beginning in July or August both metals should rally strongly.

Stocks did nothing to notice today, just bounced slightly. Sell, O, sell thy stocks!

US DOLLAR INDEX rose 62 basis points today to close above 73.50 at 73.86. Now -- can it beat 74.00? No doubt that rising dollar caused gold and silver trouble today, but it's not that strong. Metals will soon shake off a stronger dollar.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Will be 10 - 40% Higher in a Year from Now

Gold Price Close Today : 879.70
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 869.70
Change: 11.80 or 1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.829
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.60
Change: 22.2 cents or 1.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.24
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.66
Change: -0.42 or -0.6%

The GOLD PRICE situation is unfurling as a long sideways triangle, chopping back and forth, frustrating its partisans to death, but ultimately breaking out to the upside.

The SILVER PRICE is making a similar pattern. As long as the silver price doesn't close below $16.45 and the gold price doesn't close below $867, that interpretation holds.

By the way, the Dow in Gold Dollars dropped about G$10 (half an ounce) today. How things will look a year from now: Oil will be rising again, stocks, whether higher or lower in US dollar terms, will have fallen much lower against silver and gold, and silver and gold prices will be 10 - 40% higher than today. At least, that's the way I see it, but y'all keep holding on to your stocks and your US Dollars if you don't believe me.

If I owned stocks right now, I'd be sweating bullets. If the Dow closes below 12,000 (11,750 at a stretch) and the S&P500 below 1,275, the slide will be long and hard with screaming and gnashing of teeth. And lo, it looketh to be coming soon.

How do you trade, or forecast, anything as unreliable and inconstant as the US DOLLAR INDEX? Yesterday, at last, it crossed 73.50 resistance, and then, did it do what any other market might do, namely, break away upside? Nope, it crashed back below 73, down 42 basis points. Technically, it hit its upper Bollinger Band line. Disgusting and undependable as it is, the dollar is probably headed higher.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Expect Sharp Up and Down Moves in Silver and Gold Prices, Without Breaking the 1 May 2008 Lows at $16.115 and $848.9

Gold Price Close Today : 869.70
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 894.70
Change: -26.80 or -3.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.60
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.180
Change: -57 cents or -3.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.66
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.88
Change: 0.78 or 1.1%

Don't bother throwing rocks at me because SILVER and GOLD PRICES dropped today -- I've been warning you they would be volatile, as in up and down and up and down. For perspective's sake, let's start out by looking at the Dow in Gold Dollars.

The DiG$ dropped from July 2007 at G$434.51 (21.019 oz) to G$247.50 (11.973 oz). A 50% retracement of that fall would take the DiG$ to G$294.50. High came on 1 May (day gold bottomed) at G$316.81 (15.326 oz), but that was far below the 200 DMA (then about G$332), and the 200 DMA in a bear market is an often-seen correction. Point is, for all gold's vacillations, it has remained strong against stocks. Today it stands at only G$292.11 (14.131 oz). So although in US dollar terms gold may appear awfully weak or volatile, against stocks it has remained strong. Silver's performance against stocks has been much the same as gold's, only stronger.

Oil dropped today a little bit, but the real story was the 78 basis point rise in the US DOLLAR INDEX to close at 73.66, a new high close for the move and a close above the magic 73.50 resistance. That gives the dollar a target of 75 - 75.25, where there's resistance, or 72.5, where the 200 DMA lurks. If the Dollar felt really spunky, it might reach as high as 77.50, the last high from back in December 2007. That 75 - 75.50 looks more likely to me.

And at last I come to SILVER and GOLD PRICES. If I could draw a picture for y'all it would make explaining easier. Both the silver and gold price charts show a great peak in March 2008. Looks similar to Spring 2004 and Spring 2006. When those peaks hit, they crash rapidly, within 35 - 45 days, to a low price that is not later exceeded. This is followed by a period as long as 16 months when the metals trade sideways in a narrowing, frustrating triangle, but never reaching a lower price than that first low.

So expect sharp up and down moves, large moves, but without breaking the 1 May 2008 lows at $16.115 and $848.9. Recall, by the way, that $850 marked gold's high in 1980. A touchback to a breakout over a historic high such as that is quite predictable.

So I wish everybody could get rich and good-looking every day, but markets go up and down. The bad comes with the good. Now if silver & gold were to break those 1 May lows, we would have another situation. But until they do, buy every single drop in price. Beginning in August or September silver and gold should begin another stunning rally, this time breaking through $1,000 and $21.

On this day in 1859 one of the richest precious metals finds in the US was discovered, the Comstock Lode beneath Virginia City, Nevada (then Utah territory). Although ignorant analysts and commentators till this day continue to cite the huge amounts of silver from the Comstock as the reason for silver's decline in price in the latter quarter of the 19th century, that's worse than hogwash. Until the 1870s silver traded at a premium to gold in world markets because there was a surplus of gold from new discoveries in California and Australia. Finally, the value of the gold that came out of the Comstock in fact outweighed the value of the silver.

Why then did silver decline in the latter 19th century? Because it was politically demonetized, through active bribery, in the United States, clearing the way for a worldwide gold-only standard, which was only the camel's nose under the tent for central banking & fiat money. Take my word for it, no matter what supercilious propaganda you've heard to the contrary: there can be no hard money unless the system is full bimetallism, with gold valued in silver & silver in gold. Every thing else is a cheat.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 09, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Dropped Today After Friday's Big Rises

Gold Price Close Today : 894.70
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 895.40
Change: -0.70 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.180
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.397
Change: -22 cents or -1.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.88
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.351
Change: 0.53 or 0.7%

Not surprising anyone very much, SILVER and GOLD PRICES dropped today after Friday's big rises. The gold price dropped US$0.70 to close at US894.70, while the silver price dropped 22 cents to land at $17.18 cents. Both traded lower in the aftermarket. Silver's low at $17.03 remained above $17.00. That close took the silver price below its 50 day moving average (DMA, now $17.28) while Friday's had taken it above. It's a fight I'm counting on silver to win.

The GOLD PRICE, too, is fighting with that 50 DMA (now 900.66) trying to break through. Although silver and gold prices will remain volatile for a while, I remain persuaded that we saw the silver and gold price lows of this correction on 1 May and will not see lower prices.

Buy them while you can.

Ahhh, in my enthusiasm Friday I forgot to remember that oil's big move that one day looked an awful lot like blow-off trading. Anyway, with a one-day move in the oil price that strong, you can bet old Bucket Shop Ben Bernanke and his cronies would be fixing the market come Monday.

Here's an easy shot at those who deny the US Treasury & Fed manipulates markets: currency exchange rates. Per the propaganda, currencies float freely -- Right, and if frogs had wings they wouldn't bump their little bottoms when they jump. Once a month in Basel, Switzerland the heads of the world's biggest central banks meet, and you can bet the don't talk about the coq au vin they had for supper. Folks, they work together! They fix the market! Since 1934 the Treasury has had, by statute, a slush fund called the Exchange Stabilisation Fund. Thus you can bet your mother's retirement money on this certainty: central banks manipulate exchange rates. Therefore, we can conclude that it's not the market alone that's pushing the dollar lower (although its fundamentals certainly make it a sell), but the Fed & the Bush administration who are letting it fall.

So today the US DOLLAR INDEX shot up 53 basis points. Wow. I am impressed, but not much. What other move did Bucket Shop Ben and his gang have, but to punch up the dollar? Even though the dollar chart has been "painted,"they've painted it well. Looks set to move through resistance at 73 tomorrow or Tuesday.

STOCKS were bumfuzzled today, and didn't know "Sic 'em" from "Come here." The Dow rose a mighty 70.5 points, while the S&P500 was smokin' with a 1.08 point rise. Meanwhile the Nasdaq Comp dropped 15.10 points. Confused markets go down or nowhere.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 06, 2008

Don't Get Caught Without Silver and Gold with the Oil Price Going Crazy

Gold Price Close Today : $895.40
Gold Price Close May 30: $887.30
Change: 8.10 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : $17.397
Silver Price Close May 30: $16.827
Change: 57 cents or 3.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.351
US Dollar Index May 30: 72.880
Change: -0.529 or -0.7%

Today was a mess!

After some loudmouthed official in Israel said an attack on Iran appeared "unavoidable" the oil price, which had been declining, jumped over $10 to close at a new record high. Bad news for stocks & the US Dollar. My friend BL, a life long trader, called today and said it was an "historic breakdown." Strong words from an experienced trader. After rising 214 points yesterday, the Dow today crashed 394 points.

The S&P 500 dropped 43.37 to 1,360.68. That 12,200 is strong support for the Dow, but from here I wouldn't bet on it holding. Get out of stocks as fast as you can.

Not only has the US DOLLAR INDEX failed to pierce 73.50, or even to hold on, it has dropped 110 basis points in the last two days. A close below 71.80 will send the dollar plummeting to its old low just above 70. If that happens, there will be no rally at all in the dollar, but instead some sort of dollar crisis this summer.

Perhaps that was what a farseeing SILVER PRICE was telling us with its two closes before today's, that something big was brewing in the market. (Y'all remember that the silver price rose two days while gold price fell). Today the silver price rose 26 cents to close at $17.397, then rose another 12 cents in the aftermarket, trading at 17:00 central time at $17.52. The GOLD PRICE rose $23.60 today, closing at US895.40, but rose another $7.00 in the aftermarket, trading at $901.50.

Problem is, these figures speak with forked tongue. To confirm another rally, the silver price needs to close above the last high at $18.24 and the gold price above its last high at $928. But to make the next confirming step, silver need only close above $17.40 and gold above $907. With the oil price going crazy, things could get out of hand this summer. Don't let that catch you without silver and gold, and a backdoor.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 05, 2008

Can the Silver Price Pull the Gold Price Up?

Gold Price Close Today : 871.80
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 879.9
Change: -8.10 or -0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.137
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.906
Change: 23.1 cents or 1.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.05
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.46
Change: -0.41 or -0.6%%

When gold and silver prices go opposite directions one day, it's a flop. Two days, and it's a phenomenon.

The GOLD PRICE sank US$8.10 today. Sounds terrible, huh? Maybe, but not when the SILVER PRICE rises 23.10 cents and then closes over $17.00 at $17.137.

The Gold/Silver Ratio dropped a colossal 117.4 basis points. Wait a minute! What does this mean? Well, the silver price 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) stands at $17.34, and if the silver price can get through that, it means that the Gold/Silver ratio is signaling an upmove in silver and gold prices.

Give it another day to tell the whole story -- see if the silver price can pull the gold price up. Looks very encouraging to me. More I think about it, the more appealing silver and gold look at these prices.

Shut your ears to the croakers and sirens, tie yourself to the mast, and sail full speed ahead.

The US DOLLAR INDEX failed again today at 73.50, falling back over 40 basis points. Chart looks like an avalanche off Mt. Everest. Dollar reached 73.89, then the snow fell off the mountainside. This repeated weakness -- one day strong, one day weak -- makes me wonder if the dollar has a rally in it or not. Here is the most important thing you must hear from me, if you hear nothing else: get out of US dollars. Swap them for silver and gold preferably, but whatever you get, get out of dollars.

Stocks (basis Dow) rose 213.97 points today, while the S&P500 rose 26.85. Ask me if I'm impressed -- no, wait, I'll answer that before you ask me: no, I am not. Dow would have to rise through 12,700, and then 13,150 to impress me.

Caroline update: Because of her strep throat, Caroline's heart surgery has been postponed at least two weeks. Thanks for your continuing prayers.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Gold Price Needs to Close Above its 50 Day Moving Average (now $905.23) to Advance

Gold Price Close Today : 879.9
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 881.60
Change: -1.70 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.906
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 16.799
Change: 10.7 cents or 0.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.46
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.30
Change: 0.16 or 0.2%

Today let's tell a tale of oil -- black gold, Texas tea -- From the depths of 10 bucks a barrel not too many years ago it ran to $135, and now is retreating. Oil's run has not ended, but it will correct 20 or 30%. The oil mania was feeding gold & silver, so oil's break (down to 122.85 today) doesn't help silver and gold. Still, if you're going to enjoy the wild run-ups, you have to take the sickening corrections, too.

The most entertaining and diverting aspect of the oil rise has been the surge in Congressional stupidity it has occasioned. Like King Canute commanding the tide to recede, senators & congressmen fume & bluster, and vie for the "Dumbest Proposal" award.

SILVER and GOLD PRICE told us nothing today, the silver price rising 10.7 cents and the gold price falling $1.70. That looks like a confused market, and confused markets either fall or go nowhere. To advance the gold price needs to close above its 50 day moving average (now $905.23). Beneath the gold price lies the arms of the 200 DMA at 846.59.

The silver price is by no means a sure thing. The next few days will be touch and go. A close below that last close at $16.115 would turn the silver price down for a fall. Right now, $16.50 is the important support. Can the silver price hold above that?

If the Dow cracks 12,200, it won't stop before 11,750. Trading doesn't look good for stocks.

The US DOLLAR index gained another 16 basis points today, but hasn't closed over 73.50 yet. That higher than 73.50 close will begin to scatter those shorting the dollar, whose numbers are legion. That might make for some jumpy trading as terrorized shorts are run out of a rising market.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Will Be Volatile in the Next Few Weeks While They are Proving They Have Bottomed

Gold Price Close Today : 881.60
Change: -11.30 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.799
Change: 7.5 cents or -0.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.30
Change: 0.35 or 0.5%

Sorry I missed y'all yesterday, but I had to drive way down into Mississippi (Laurel) to pick up some Large Black Pigs. They are a rare breed, probably only 1,000 in the US. Foot & mouth in England took a heavy toll on them. They have big floppy ears and a disposition gentle as a dog -- altogether amazing pigs. (Y'all can see that I am investing in pork as well as silver.)

Confusion and bewilderment reign in markets today. The "rising dollar" (sounds like a contradiction in terms) has cast them all into confusion. Stocks, gold, silver, oil, all dropped today. O, Woe! What will become of us?

We'll probably survive, since the dollar won't rise for long, and silver and gold prices should speedily shrug off whatever evil spell a rising dollar might at first cast over them.

STOCKS (measured by the Dow) appears to have ended their upward movement for the summer. Okay, maybe, maybe they have one more spike up, but that's looking less & less likely. Anyway, we are cheerfully out of stocks, having sold them and put the proceeds in silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX has now climbed above its 50 day moving average (today 72.45) and the middle of its Bollinger band. The bandy-legged buck seems to have tied on its running shoes, what-ho! Technically it needs to climb and close over 73.50 first. Ultimate target is 75 to 75.50. Before you let this cast you down, remember that the dollar is not merely the mirror image of silver and gold so that when one goes up the other goes down. True, a rising Samolean will cause some trouble for the metals at first. However, this is (1) the time of year when they seasonally make lows anyway, and (2) at the end of a large correction. Therefore metals are weak anyway, so a rising dollar looks stronger, and metals weaker, than they otherwise would. Just hold your cards in patience, and take this opportunity to swap US dollars for silver and gold.

Remember, when everybody else is panicking, it's time for the cool-headed to buy.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES are not going to be much fun to follow for the next few weeks. It will be a volatile up and down while they prove that they have indeed bottomed (as I suspect) or go lower to make lower lows (which I doubt). But it's time like these, when everyone is cringing and talking about "the end of the bull market" that the wise will buy, knowing that it is only a normal correction.

It's just like a battle -- when the bullets start flying, the tough get going, and the not-tough run. Keep your heads. Silver and gold prices have years yet to run up.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.