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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Have Made Their Lows and Now are Climbing in a Rally that Will Last Until Well Into Next Spring

Gold Price Close Today : 818.50
Change: -1 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 10.27
Change: -8.5 cents or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 79.70
Change: 0.558 or 0.7%

Dow Industrials: 8,479.47
Change: 36.08 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 84.77
Change: -1.04 or -1.2%


Although somebody (Nice Government Men?) painted the tape brilliantly yesterday to make metals' performance look worse than it was, their strength could not be hidden. The gold price rose $80 in two days, the silver price over $1. Most of the day the gold price was circling around $830, and the silver price $10.50, although the closes came in much lower.

Today they eased off a little, the gold price down a dollar to $818.50 and the silver price down 8.5 cents to $10.27. The real hurdles now are $850.00 for gold (25 year resistance) and $10.50 for the silver price, but they ought to be surpassed quickly.

Silver and gold prices have made their lows and now are climbing in a rally that will last until well into next spring. If you were waiting for a "sign" to buy, you got it yesterday and Friday.

The US Dollar index is collapsing, literally. Yesterday it dropped 280 basis points. I kept looking at that figure, unable to grasp it. Thought it must be a misprint. Today the dollar index fell another 104 basis points to land at 84.769. Looks like the liquidity squeeze -- and the panicked demand for dollars -- has ended. Down 380 basis points in two days? This is not alarming, it is humiliating. The dollar is trash, and will be trashed.

STOCKS probably have yet one more downward spike, but may have already bottomed. Still looking for a bottom by the end of the month and beginning of 3 - 4 month rally, before stocks fall off the face of the earth into the black hole of a bear market.

Reading back over a few commentaries from the last few months, I realize I may sound fairly, well, sarcastic toward the monetary and governmental powers that be. I confess that I hold them all in contempt, as clowns too ignorant to recognize what damage they are doing, or as mercenary traitors willing to destroy the lives of millions. In any event, they are not serious people. Serious people don't do such things; they take heed of their actions' consequences.

And I realize that I am always urging you to buy silver and gold. There's a reason for that. It will be a long bear market in the economy and stocks and the dollar, and a long bull market in silver and gold. It's hard enough for people to grasp that, harder still for them to act on it. Rather, they will watch like a mouse fascinated by a dancing snake while their capital is gobbled down by a bear market. I trust y'all understand that and have acted -- or will act -- soon.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, November 21, 2008

Today Silver and Gold Blew Everybody's Ears Back - All You Could Hear Was the Whining Roar of the Silver and Gold Price Jets

Gold Price Close Today : 799.75
Change: 51.5 or 6.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 9.575
Change: 55 cents or 6.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 83.52
Change: 0.577 or 0.7%

Dow Industrials: 8,046.26
Change: 493.97 or 6.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.66
Change: -0.96 or -1.1%


The US DOLLAR INDEX has about exhausted its parabolic move. Gravity looks ready to take over. It has failed three times to break through the ceiling at 88, yet again today. Other indicators are neutral or negative, and it has traced out a "bearish rising wedge." That's an up-pointing triangle that usually resolves to the downside. Let's leave it at this: I wouldn't go long dollars any time soon. Chance is you'll see the buck at 70 again before you'll see it at 95.

Despite the Walking Dead routine today, the stock market zombie will drop again. Perhaps this week it came near to a bottom, but there is a lower low coming next week.

Today silver and gold blew everybody's ears back. All you could hear was the whining roar of the silver and gold price jets.

The gold price closed on its 50 day moving average -- Wow. Investors were waiting for the gold price to cross over $750. As soon as it climbed through that window today, it shot higher. In the aftermarket it was trading at 803.70. The gold price has traced out a broadening bottom, and now confirmed the key reversal it made a week ago Thursday: higher is the next direction. First the gold price must burst through resistance around $825-$830, then $875, before it can take aim for the October high at $936.30. Today the gold price gained $51.15 [sic], if you're wondering how fast it can move when it really tries.

Y'all ain't seen nothing yet.

The silver price followed its key reversal a week ago Thursday with a swoon most of the week but closed higher for the week, clinching and confirming the key reversal. Look for much higher prices next week. Rounding bottom nearly finished.

Both silver and gold prices have confirmed bottoms, and seem to have launched a rally that will carry into next spring. Stocks will bottom next week, somewhere lower than this week, and begin a rally that will last as long as 4 months and carry to 10,000 or 11,000 -- your last chance to sell them all. US Dollar is ending its rally, which should push silver and gold prices even higher. No end in sight for the financial crisis, or the bloodsucking greed of corporate America. Expect the new congress to pass a bill sending every man, woman, and child in the country a $2 million check. Shoot, let's bail out everybody!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, November 20, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Stand on the Verge of Breaking Out of their Downtrends

Gold Price Close Today : 748.60
Change: 12.7 or 1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 9.025
Change: -28.5 cents or -3.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 82.95
Change: 3.903 or 4.9%

Dow Industrials: 7,552.45
Change: -444.83 or -5.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 88.17
Change: 0.42 or 0.5%

No sooner had the words escaped my keyboard than the Dow Jones Industrial average proved yet again that triple bottoms are very, very rare. Breaking 8,000 yesterday broke stock investors' morale, & try as they might throughout the day to keep a stiff upper pocketbook, shortly after 14:00 somebody yelled, "Every man for himself!" When the dust cleared the Dow had dropped 444.83. S&P500 fell even more, down 54.14. Final scoreboard read Dow 7,552.45 & S&P500, 752.44. That Dow figure is probably within 500 - 700 points of the low, which, after today's debacle, ought to occur within the next few days.

The Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) made a new low for the move today, G$208.55 (9.943 oz), versus the 9 October low at G$200.82 (9.715 oz). DiG$ is telling us that gold will outperform stocks for some time to come.

The mysterious floating US DOLLAR INDEX rose today 42 basis points to 88.165, reaching, meseemeth, for another lower high in a series. Possible here is a spike top to 90 before it finally dries up and drops back toward its intrinsic value, namely, zero.

Either some confusion exists in the precious metals markets, or the Nice Government Men busied themselves today selling silver futures in their attempt to drive down the gold price. The gold price closed up 12.70 at 748.60 while the silver price closed down 28.5 at $9.025 (at 4:30 CST they were 747.70 & 9.06). Either that is a bad omen, where the silver price will pull down the gold price, or it is a market making up its mind.

Both silver and gold prices stand on the verge of breaking out of their downtrends, so if you were NGM strategizing, it was a critical place to sell silver to make the whole precious metals group look weak.
Platinum and palladium, too, both sold off badly today and yesterday, but that is easily explained by the American automakers' troubles, because auto catalysts consume a huge part of both metals.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO continues trending down but needs to break below 76:1.

I believe we've seen the lows in gold and silver. Seasonally they are setting up for huge rallies into next spring, falling wedges on both charts. Keep on buying both silver and gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Both Silver and Gold Charts are Beginning to Display Marks of Rounding Bottoms - If you Haven't Already Bought, Buy Now

Gold Price Close Today : 735.90
Change: 3.30 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 9.310
Change: -24 cents or -2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio: 79.04
Change: 2.332 or 3.0%

Dow Industrials: 7,997.28
Change: -427.47 or -5.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.75
Change: 0.54 or 0.6%

Oooo . . . Today was a scary one. Stocks? Scary. The Dow dropped below 8000, and even a few points demoralizes buyers. It dropped today 427 points to stop at 7,997.28. S&P fell worse, down 52.54 points to 806.58. This is the third drop toward this same area, & truth to tell, markets only very rarely make triple bottoms. On third tries they usually break through. The Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) closed way down today at G$224.67 (10.867 oz) dropping through support toward the October low. Rest of November won't bring comfort to stock investors.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rose today, 54 Basis points, to 87.75. Ponder -- it remains below 88, which has stymied it so far twice, and looks ready to break down again. When it does, it will be Katy bar the door for silver and gold prices. Speaking of silver and gold, gold was firmer today and silver was mushier. Yesterday silver rose while gold fell slightly, today that was reversed. This bespeaks some confusion in the market. The big sellers have shot their wad without being able to break the market further.

Sellers are disappearing. Both silver and gold charts are beginning to display marks of rounding bottoms. If you haven't already bought, buy now. On the nervous side, I don't welcome the $38 & $34 drops in platinum & palladium today. Maybe other markets are bracing themselves for a stock drop?

On this date in 1919 the U.S. Senate rejected the Treaty of Versailles (& the League of Nations). That was before they had learned their globalist duty, back when they still had spines.

On this day in 1993, on the other hand, the US Senate voted for the North American "Free Trade" Agreement (NAFTA), doing its utmost to reduce the American economy to 5th World status. What a difference a spine makes!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Expect a Strong Gold and Silver Price Rally to Begin Soon - Accelerating After the New Year

Gold Price Close Today : 732.60
Change: -9.30 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 9.550
Change: 22 cents or 2.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 76.71
Change: -2.806 or -3.5%

Dow Industrials: 8,424.75
Change: 151.17 or 1.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.21
Change: 0.27 or 0.3%

Another day in which the Nice Government Men painted the tape. The gold price refused to drop below $732, but was "closed" at $732.60, then promptly began climbing to 738 - 741 now (16:50 CST). Stocks were "up" (raise volume on canned applause in the background) by 151 huge points. The silver price closed up 22 cents, then rose another 20 cents in the aftermarket. The US DOLLAR INDEX rose 27 basis points to close at 87.21.

The closes in silver and gold smelled even stranger because the silver price "closed" up 22 cents while the gold price "closed" down $9.30. Confusion in the market, or just a painted tape? Confusion would indicate silver and gold prices are faltering, but for some reason I can't quite put my finger on (besides my fundamental, abiding, deep-seated, and absolutely certain distrust of the yankee government) today's trading did not seem weak or wavering at all.

At the bottom line, the silver price improved its Thursday key reversal again today, while the gold price remained high enough to keep from endangering the key reversal. All remains on track.

Looking ahead, there shouldn't be more than a couple of weeks to run on the dollar's rally. Expect a strong gold and silver price rally to begin soon and wade through the end of the year, accelerating after the new year. A rally is due to begin in stocks, probably by end-November, which will give you, quite literally, "one last chance" to escape stocks.

It remains very difficult to get silver and gold. Shipments of silver are late. From day to day I don't know what we will have available to sell. It's a very small door into gold and silver: y'all better crawl through while you've got a chance.

Following is a small quotation from a courageous Tennessean (ah, but I repeat myself) addressing the 2nd Bank of the US, the banksters of our day. Jackson was not, however, offering them any bailouts or favours:

Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves . . . I intend to rout you out, and by the Eternal God I will rout you out!


Just try to imagine one of those Washington traitors or running dogs of the banksters saying those words today. Only reply they know to banksters, is "Yes" & "How much?"

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, November 17, 2008

Expect Higher Silver and Gold Prices this Week

Gold Price Close Today : 741.90
Change: -0.50 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 9.33
Change: $16 cents or 7.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 79.52
Change: -1.442 or -1.8%

Dow Industrials: 8,273.58
Change: -223.73 or -2.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.93
Change: -0.49 or -0.6%

The key reversals upward posted last Thursday in SILVER and GOLD PRICES
prices remain in place. The silver price is weaker and must not close below $9.20, but it should manage. I suspect today's lackluster metals performance (the gold price up 50 cents and the silver price up 16 cents) stemmed from shorts returning form their weekend and placing new positions. Expect higher silver and gold prices this week. As long as that key reversal holds, you can safely buy, because the bottom has been made.

There was no big news today, other than the new announcements of massive layoffs, auto manufacturers bailout, and more bank bail outs, but something sure made both stocks and the US Dollar index sick.

Stocks appear to have contradicted their key reversal last Thursday by closing below Thursday's 8,835 Dow close, down today 224 to 8,274. The Dow tried twice to pierce 8,900 and failed twice. It closed today virtually on the day's low. Unless it reverses upward tomorrow, the Dow is headed much lower.

Some force is hammering the US DOLLAR INDEX above 87.5. With two lower tops (88+ & 87.5) the dollar has the look of having topped. Only a rise above 88 would put the fear of lower prices behind the buck.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, November 14, 2008

Key Reversal in the Gold Price put in Yesterday and Today with Today's Higher Close is a Very Reliable Sign of a Bottom

Gold Price Close Today : 742.40
Change: 37.50 or 5.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 9.490
Change: 69 cents or 7.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 78.23
Change: -1.873 or -2.3%

Dow Industrials: 8,497.31
Change: -337.94 or -3.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.42
Change: 0.74 or 0.9%

Imagine that you loaned someone $50,000 to invest in a gold mine in Sierra Leone. Now imagine that he calls you after a month & tells you he spent $25,000 on the gold mine, but then changed his mind. He now thinks that's a bad idea, so he's going to invest in a hog farm in Iran.

You would probably get busy rummaging through your bureau for your .357 magnum to go eliminate this problem, but you can't do that when the incompetent who borrowed the money turns out to be secretary of the US treasury, & the loaner is congress, & the dough amounts to $700 billion.

So, now, tell me: how much faith do y'all have that the government & the Fed know what they're doing? Or that they are likely to find a quick "cure" for the economic crisis? Pondering how Paulson has been handing out money to his bank buddies, one wonders whether he's merely attempting to look incompetent while in fact looting the treasury for his friends.

But let that pass & let's think about markets this week. We got an object lesson in why a "key reversal" consists of TWO parts. First, there is the break into new low territory with a higher close for the day. Second, that must be confirmed by a higher close the next day.

Stocks didn't make the second step. Yesterday they traded to a new low for the move, then closed sharply higher. However, the profit takers didn't trust that gain to hang around until Monday, so sold like rip today, down 338 to 8,497.31 on the Dow.

If stocks drop again Monday, then the pain has not ended.

The US Dollar Index rose today, 74 basis points to 87.42, on no news or some news, I can't tell. Who knows what's moving it nowadays. My goal for the scrofulous currency is about 90, and then reality will set in.

Tomorrow the heads of state & finance ministers of the Gang of 20 will meet in Washington to re-arrange the "international financial architecture" to bless all of us peons. O, thank you, Massa, thank you! Watch out. Something really bad could be spawned there.

SILVER and GOLD shone this week. What? Y'all ask? The silver price dropped 47 cents this week. Means nothing. The gold prie rose $9.20 for the week to close at 742.40. The silver price closed at $9.49. More important, however, is the key reversal put in yesterday and today with today's higher close. This is a very reliable sign of a bottom, that can only be contradicted by a lower close. The gloom is off the rose for metals, so you can buy with much greater confidence now.

Long term outlook remains unchanged: much lower for stocks & the dollar, much higher for silver & gold. Look through the fog to the horizon. Steer straight.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, November 13, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Showed First Elements of Key Reversals Today

Gold Price Close Today : 704.90
Change: -$12.80 or -1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 8.800
Change: 68 cents or -7.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 80.10
Change: 4.396 or 5.8%

Dow Industrials: 8,835.25
Change: 552.59 or 6.7%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.69
Change: 1.06 or 1.2%

Crazy -- absolutely crazy. Silver and gold prices were down heavily at the close -- silver down 68 cents to 880 and gold down 12.80 at $704.90. Yet in the aftermarket, right now, gold is trading at 734.70, up $30 over the close and $20 over yesterday, and silver costs $9.47, up 67 cents or the entirety of today's drop.

Some news must have come out that I can't see, because the US Dollar index has dropped in the last hour about 60 more basis points, on top of the 42 it had lost already, to drop below 87 at 86.685.

Meanwhile stocks, after dropping 400+ points by 1300 hours, closed up 552.59 points at 8,835.25. Lately markets seem a seesaw, with stocks, silver, and gold moving together opposite the dollar. Logical? Nope, not at all, unless you figure that those desperate for dollars must liquidate stocks & metals to get them.

As I have been explaining for years, the chance that the US government would again confiscate gold as it did in the 1930s is a little less than the chance you will be abducted by aliens from the planet Zambodia on your way home today. As the saying goes, Where the corpse is, there will the vultures gather. Where is the corpse of wealth today? In retirement accounts, wherefore it surpriseth not that the Democrats have been holding hearings wherein an "expert" suggested that the US government should confiscate IRAs & 401(k)s and have the Social Security Administration (world-class shining example of financial probity and success) manage them for you. Nope, I didn't make this up. See www.carolinajournal.com/exclusives/dems-target-private-retirement-accounts.html

Looks like the US national motto will be changed from "In God We Trust" to "Let The Stealing Begin." Man, I love socialism. It's so, so, practical. Where else could you find all the worst points of both sadism & masochism?

Do NOT miss what happened today in silver and gold. These were dramatic first elements of key reversals. Silver and gold prices need only close higher Friday to complete the key reversals. Today's $8.80 close gives the silver price a double bottom with the earlier $8.79 close, and the gold price seems to be finishing the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders formation, with the neckline at $750. I don't recollect an aftermarket surge this strong, which implies that a definitive bottom has been placed. Therefore, buy silver and gold. By the way, stocks also made the first step of a key reversal, and a rally may follow from here that could last up to four months and give you a chance to get out of any remaining stocks.

Dear Readers, I certainly hope you aren't mimicking the mass of Americans who are hiding their heads in the sand, rather than facing what the present economic crisis may mean. If so, stop kidding yourselves. These bad debts and bad investments cannot be cleared in less than a decade. Best gird up your loins and prepare to run a long, hard race.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, November 12, 2008

The Gold Price Now Stands Right at its Last Two Lows - This isn't Good, as it has the Smell of Breaking Down Further

Gold Price Close Today : 717.70
Change: -$14.30 or -2.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 9.480
Change: 32.5 cents or -3.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 75.71
Change: 1.051 or 1.4%

Dow Industrials: 8,282.66
Change: -411.30 or -4.7%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.61
Change: 0.37 or 0.4%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES dropped today on the close, then dropped more in the aftermarket. The gold price closed down 14.30 to 717.70 while silver dropped 32.5 cents to close at $9.48. In the aftermarket as I write gold is trading at 709.90 and silver at 930. Gold/Silver ratio stands at 76.33.

(An encouraging footnote to this is the performance of the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) and the Dow in Silver Ounces. Both are trending downward, and stand not much below the last lows, so swapping stocks for silver and gold has proven a better bargain than holding stocks.)

The gold price now stands right at its last two lows. This isn't good, as it has the smell of breaking down further. Silver stands higher above its previous low, but today its trading wasn't precisely inspiring. Hold on and watch to see how this will resolve.

Logic has fled the scene and events randomly pile on each other without apparent connection or cause. Comrade Treasury Commissar Paulson informed congress today that having spent about $300 billion of the dough from the bailout bill, he was changing his mind and spending the rest on something else instead of "troubled" assets (a.k.a. mortgage backed securities).

For the first time in history, the Fed, FDIC, Comptroller of Currency, and Office of Thrift Supervision issued a joint statement that warned banks they had better spend, or else. Oh, it was dressed up in muddy bureaucratese, but the message was clearly, "Lend, or we will twist your tail until you do lend!"

And in the face of these Mafia antics from government, the US dollar rose 37 basis points.

Logic, where art thou? Reason, where hidest thou thyself? Common sense, art thou drowned in the deeps? Events have become "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."

Stocks keep on falling and falling. Today the Dow dropped 411.30 to 8,282.66 while the S&P fell 40.84 to 858.11. November hasn't ended yet, and neither has this crash leg in the stock market. Could drop to 7,250 Dow, even lower before a reaction rally begins.


Now hear what John Kenneth Galbraith once said, "I'm sure a crash like 1929 will happen again. The only thing is that one doesn’t know when. All it takes for another collapse is for the memories of the last insanity to dull."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices are Both Fighting a Stronger Dollar - Don't Let it Bother you: the Dollar's Days are Numbered

Gold Price Close Today : 732.00
Change: -$13.60 or -1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 9.805
Change: 41.5 cents or -4.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 74.66
Change: 1.701 or 2.3%

Dow Industrials: 8,693.96
Change: -176.58 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.17
Change: 1.20 or 1.4%

Ouch! Stocks look ready to drop off the cliff again. I hope y'all have sold yours already.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is creating problems for silver and gold prices. Looks like the dollar has finished a correction & broken out upside again into what will probably mark the last leg of its rally. How long might it last? Oh, say, two months, or about to the end of December. Everybody tends to sober up come January 2.

The GOLD PRICE is trending upward (despite today's lower close at $732, down $13.60), but needs that close above $750.

Today's action was mushy, just not terribly enthusiastic. Never mind -- the gold price is building a flat-topped, rising triangle, which formation usually breaks out to the upside. Silver's chart resembles gold, and also shows an uptrend with a flat-topped rising triangle. Today's close at $9.805 might have broken down out of that formation, or it might merely be testing the trend.


But check out the silver price versus the GYX (Index of Industrial Metals).


Silver is now holding its own after dropping from July to mid-September. Since then it has climbed back against the industrial metals to exceed both the July and MARCH highs. More proof that the demand driving silver is monetary, not industrial. Very good sign.



Silver and gold prices are both fighting a stronger dollar. You can hardly expect them to shine on a day when the dollar index gains 120 basis points, now can you? Don't let it bother you: the dollar's days are numbered.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, November 10, 2008

Gold Price Must Cross $750 and The Silver Price Must Cross $10.50 Before They Can Make any Headway

Gold Price Close Today : 745.60
Gold Price Close October 31: 716.80
Change: $28.80 or 4%

Silver Price Close Today : 10.22
Silver Price Close October 31: 9.73
Change: 49 cents or 5%

Gold Silver Ratio: 72.95
Gold Silver Ratio October 31: 73.67
Change: -0.71 or -1.0%

Dow Industrials: 8,870.54
Dow October 31: 9,337.75
Change: -467.21 or -5.0%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.979
US Dollar Index October 31: 85.647
Change: 0.332 or 0.4%

I've been away traveling since 30 October, but you can see from the above table that stocks have continued to shed points, the US dollar index is flat, while silver and gold prices have risen 5% and 4%.

Realistically you ought to be factoring in a rise in the US dollar index. How much it will rise (thanks to the goosing of the Nice Government Men) I can't say, but I still expect to see 87.5 or 88 out of it before it fails. How long can this continue? Another couple of months, I suspect, but keeping the dollar up is like trying to levitate an anvil. It won't last too long, although as long as it remains high it will slow down silver & gold like a headwind. Be patient, get out of US dollars.

Stocks are not going to improve for any length of time before they make another plunge downward, and then they'll spend the next 10 years trying recover. As I've been advising since 2001, get out of stocks.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES have troubles of their own. The gold price has put in what appears to be a double bottom around $713, which is fine progress. But what about moving up now? Gold's line in the sand is US$750. It must cross that line first before it can make any headway.

SILVER's comparable line in the sand is $10.50. Until the silver price crosses that line, the market will remain sceptical. Unlike gold, silver has not made a double bottom, which gives my brain (if not my heart) pause. Will it make another bottom to balance that single one at 880 cents? It might, but the double top in the Gold/Silver Ratio slightly above 84 suggests that silver has already done all the bottoming that it intends to. Real progress would be marked if the ratio closed below the recent low at 70.94.

Long term the outlook hasn't altered one little bit. The Fed and the US government have pumped so much credit and money into the system that a stunning inflation (if not outright hyperinflation) most surely will hit. Brace yourself for it.

Biggest bogey on the horizon is the meeting of heads of state and finance ministers on 15 November in Washington for a "new Bretton Woods." Considering that Bretton Woods directly de-industrialized the US by placing its manufacturers at a permanent exchange rate disadvantage, one strains to wonder what sort of evils might be spawned by a second Bretton Woods. One strains, and one laments one's lack of imagination.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at:"
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.