Buy Gold and Silver How to Buy Gold How to Buy Silver Gold Commentary

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Confused Markets Usually Don't Go Anywhere, and Silver and Gold Prices Were Confused Today

Gold Price Close Today : 922.60
Change: 0.8 or 7.10%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.975
Change: -4.8 cents or -0.4

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.11
Change: 0.807 or 1.1%

Dow Industrial: 7,608.92
Change: 86.90 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.53
Change: -0.09 or -0.1%

News reported today that the California state treasurer is rolling out a new bond issue and will try to sell it to European banks. One wonders just how inclined they will be to buy bonds from bankrupt California after Wall Street already shucked all those trash mortgage backed securities on them. Not very inclined, I would guess.

The Gang of 20 will soon meet in London. There will be preening & posturing, but not much action.

Today let's think about 50 day moving averages.

US DOLLAR INDEX bounced off its 50 day moving average (DMA) at 86.24 yesterday, & dropped today. That may be the end of that.

The Dow rose 86.9 to 7,608.92 & the S&P500 rose 797.87 to 10.34. If the Dow has in fact reached its 50 DMA (7,569.87), then we will get a spirited rally before it crashes again. More likely, the Dow will reach 7200 or so before it turns around to continue its rally, and then crash again.

Confused markets usually don't go anywhere, and silver & gold prices were confused today. Gold rose 7.10 to 922.60 while the silver price fell 4.8 to 1297.5 cents. Oddly, silver really looks stronger than gold. Its 50 DMA (1298) has finally, after last fall's debacle, crossed above its 200 DMA (12.87) again, a bullish sign. Two days after that happens, it falls below its 200 DMA. Silver's low today was 12.58, which argues that's as low as this move will go, since it's strong support.

Gold is riding along just above its 50 DMA, just cruising there. If it crosses seriously below that 926.14 mark, we can expect gold's correction to stretch out several months. So far, though, it has defended itself handily against sellers.

Today I was comparing the complicated & the simple. I know a lot of silver & gold investors who don't know sic 'em from come here about technical analysis, international funds flows, bank reserves, & all the rest. They just stood back, took the long view, & bought. Right now, after stock investors lost 30 - 50% last year, that looks like a pretty sound plan.

Keep on buying silver & gold on dips. The market is handing you a gift -- take it.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, March 30, 2009

If the Gold Price is Going to Drop Further, You'll See it This Week, Probably Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 915.50
Change: -7.70 or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.023
Change: -58.7 cents or -4.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.30
Change: 2.466 or 3.6%

Dow Industrial: 7,522.02
Change: -254.16 or -3.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.62
Change: 0.48 or 0.6


Gold's performance today was not particularly edifying, but competent still. It fell US$7.70 to US$915.50. If the gold price is going to drop further, you'll see it this week, probably tomorrow. Otherwise it shouldn't drop further than it did today at its 908.45 low. US$906 ought to hold firm.

The SILVER PRICE always takes the downside hit harder than gold: smaller market, more volatile. Ratio rose to 70.30. Silver's low today was 12.91. It might yet trade as low as 12.80, but today showed grace under fire.

Continue to buy silver and gold on weakness.

The US Dollar Index is reaching for its 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) at 86.22, or for resistance at 86.50. Possibility exists it may have broken out to the upside. If so, the dollar will have no problem breaking through 86.50. Otherwise, the downtrend remains in force. I suspect this is merely a countertrend bounce.

In stocks you are watching the correction of the first leg up in a bear market rally, NOT, I repeat, NOT the end of the bear market. Fill your ears with cotton or cork or pitch or whatever you need to keep out the seductive song of Wall Street's sirens, luring you back to the wealth-stripping whirlpool. Commentators will commentate and find all sorts of reasons (like Obamaramalama's latest antics) but in truth these are merely coincident to what the market was ready to do. Dow dropped below its 50 DMA (7,583.31), and probably will drop to 7,200, a 50% retracement.

Lately Obama is demanding that the present GM CEO quit -- sort of as a condition of further govenrment bailouts. Here we see yet another example of why government shouldn't run the economy. What makes Obama qualified to pick the CEO of a multi-billion dollar company? Maybe the present one is bad, maybe he's good, but my 6 year old grandson could make as good a pick as Obama, who hath never in his life met a payroll or run a real business. Another example of the same is the lynch mob after AIG execs who received bonuses. The mob never stopped to think that they had CONTRACTS that guaranteed those bonuses. Many of them were working to restructure the company for nothing more than the bonus, but it made a convenient soapbox for Bernanke, Geithner, and Obama, who had all already signed off it.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, March 27, 2009

Only Closes Below 12.50 and 906 Would Take Silver and Gold Prices Lower

Gold Price Close Today : $923.20
Gold Price Close 20th March: $955.80
Change: -32.60 or -4.2%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.251
Silver Price Close 20th March: $13.827
Change: -57.60 cents or -3.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.67
Gold Silver Ratio Close 20th March: 69.13
Change: 0.54 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial: 7,776.18
Dow Close 20th March: 7,278.38
Change: 497.800 or 6.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.140
US Dollar Close 20th March: 83.708
Change: 1.432 or 1.7%

'Twas a week of treading water for range-bound silver and gold, a rising week for counter-trend rallying stocks. Today the FDIC closed Omni National Bank in Atlanta, 21st bank they've closed this year. Case you were wondering, that works out to one bank closed every four days. Yea, buddy, that's success! Comrade Timmy Geithner wants more power to regulate Wall Street, especially hedge funds and derivatives. Pardon, but isn't that like setting Col. Sanders as a guard over the chicken coop? Quis custodiet custodes ipsos? Who will guard Comrade Timmy and the other guards?

GOLD's indicators are pointing higher, although today it fell US$16.80 to US$923.20. I'm afraid the gold price will be range-bound for a while, between 920 and 950. Actually, you could broaden that range out to 890, but every time it approaches 920, enthusiastic buyers spring from the earth. Physical gold supply continues to tighten. No American Eagles available anywhere, Austrian 100 coronas not to be found, Mexican 50 pesos all gone on vacation. Let's see -- is disappearing supply a sign of a market headed down? Doubtful.

The SILVER PRICE closed down 35.6 cents today at $13.2510. It is tracing out another rounding bottom or saucer formation with a rim at 14.50. As with gold, silver is trading in a range, from 14.00 to 12.50/12.00. This sideways trading is very frustrating. Just when you think you've caught it, it drops back. Indicators still point up. After it climbs above 14.50 silver will hit 16.00 before you can say, "Scat!

Be patient, keep buying every dip in silver and gold. As long as they hold above 906 and 12.50, it's just a range. Only closes below those levels would take metals lower.

In a reprise of this year's earlier downward volatility, the US DOLLAR INDEX today rose 100+ basis points. The euro dropped on a budget warning from the German finance minister and the British pound took a drubbing on revised economic activity figures. Who benefited but the sick kid on the block? Just imagine what this volatility is doing to people who have to trade currencies and importers/exporters. It's shredding their hopes of profit. Weekly and Daily charts for the Dollar index still look topped out. Every time the dollar rises you ought to grab the opportunity to shuck dollars and dollar-paying investments for silver and gold.

STOCKS have probably worn out the first leg of their rally, and will rest for a few days. Rally will run longer, and further, but just needs a little rest. Maximum target appears to be 9,000 to 9,400.

Y'all have a great weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, March 26, 2009

Expect Significantly Higher Gold and Silver Prices Within 30 Days

Gold Price Close Today : 940.00
Change: 4.20 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.607
Change: 18 cents or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.08
Change: -0.629 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial: 7,925.04
Change: 175.23 or 2.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 84.09
Change: 0.37 or 0.4%

The GOLD PRICE rose $4.20 to US$940 and the SILVER PRICE climbed 18.3 cents to $13.607 cents. Most of this they gave back after Comex closed at 12:30 CST, ending the day (17:00 central time) at $935.50 and $13.52. I suspect big resistance as gold approaches $950 and silver approaches $13.80 - $14.00. I expect significantly higher prices within 30 days. Only a break below $920 in gold would change that outlook. Once gold breaks through US$1,000, both metals will rise very rapidly. Keep on buying silver and gold. Urgently.

What's going on? The platinum price rose $11 today and the palladium price rose ten dollars. Wow.

Today the US DOLLAR INDEX rose 35 basis points to 84.087, but the chart looks awful. Now it is consolidating, but surely more down-side lieth in the future. Add to that the feckless and foolish comedy team, Ben and Timmy, who can't open their mouths for the foot hovering nearby. Great confidence builders.

STOCKS rose again, Dow up 175.23 to 7,925.04; S&P closed up 18.98 at 823.86. Sell on a scale-up, or sell big chunks beginning at 9,000. Rally may last through May. Folks, this is the LAST last train out. Catch it or live where you are for the next 25 years.

From 28 June 1914 until 28 July, the world held its breath hoping that Austria would not declare war on Serbia over the assassination of Austrian Archduke Ferdinand. By 1 August, all Europe had been drawn in. World War I would slaughter millions, and in the end destroy the empires -- Russian, German, Russian, and Ottoman -- that had helped start it. Not even the winners -- France, Britain, and the US -- won anything. Worse, communism was spawned.

Today the sun is beaming, spring grass makes the air fragrant, I can see the spring lambs from where I sit. Yet I look at markets, I see premiums rising on silver, gold coins disappearing, hear of seed shortages, guns and ammunition disappearing from stores, and a shadow passes over making me wonder if we're not in that same still month in 1914.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Marks to Beat on the Upside are $14.50 and $950

Gold Price Close Today : 935.80
Change: 12.00 or 1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.424
Change: 8 cents or 0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.71
Change: 0.481 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial: 7,749.81
Change: 89.84 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 83.72
Change: -0.29 or -0.3%

If y'all would like to see my testimony before the Georgia house Committee on Banks and Banking, go to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VKvzeePmL4 You'll get a great view of my back.

Stocks are about to run into trouble as they hit resistance at 8,000. Rally will continue, drawing in more and more victims. Don't
become one of them.

US Dollar index dropped today. Interesting to hear proposals by some snarky UN Economic committee to replace US dollar with IMF Special Drawing Rights as world's reserve currency. Well, that goes to show that just when you thought nobody could do or say or suggest anything stupider, sorrier, and surer to work irreparable harm on all the peoples of the world in the financial realm, some loopy UN bureaucrat does it. Makes you wonder if this was part of the plan all along (that's for all you conspiracy buffs.) The head of China's central bank suggested something similar and Little Timmy Geithner today drove the US Dollar down 1% in two nanoseconds by remarking in public that, well, yeah, the US is all in favour of increasing SDR reserves. Great, Timmy! Whose team do you play for? Conspiracy? What are they conspiring to do, out-stupid each other?

Maybe I'd better make myself clear. I'm glad to know that somebody besides me thinks the US Dollar shouldn't be the world's reserve currency, but replace it with the IMF SDR? Go from not worth much to not worth a tinker's dam? What good would that do?

SILVER and GOLD welcomed Timmy's gaffe. The gold price rose 12 bucks to US$935.80 and the silver price climbed 8 cents to 13.4240. $14.50 and $950 remain the marks to beat on the upside. However, downside I don't think there's much danger. Gold wilted toward 920 and buyers came out of the woodwork like swallows flocking back to Capistrano. It appears plenty of support lurks beneath both metals.

Yet let us remain philosophical. Metals are still correcting, while they creep up toward gold's breakout at US$1,000, so they might break briefly. For now it doesn't appear that will happen, though.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, March 24, 2009

We Will See Silver and Gold Restored as Money, and With Them, Lasting and Stable Prosperity

Gold Price Close Today : 923.30
Change: -$28.80 or -3.0%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.344
Change: -51.8 cents or -3.7%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.19
Change: 0.508 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial: 7,659.97
Change: -115.89 or -1.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 84.01
Change: 0.56 or 0.7%

Sorry this is late, but Susan and I took off for Atlanta last night, about 6 hours away on word word from a friend with the Constititutional Tender Act, www.constitutionaltender.com. Georgia Rep. Bobby Franklin entered the act which requires the state to perform its duty under US Constitution Art. I, Section 10 to make nothing but gold and silver coin a tender in payment of debt. Today the House Committee on Banks and Banking held a hearing, and the bill's supporters asked me to testify.

Needless to say, the banks will fight it tooth and toenail, because they don't understand it. If they did, they would support it as it offers the only chance for them to survive. Listening to the banking lobbyists specious objections, it dawned on me: Their time is past. A wave of revulsion against fiat money and uncontrolled fractional reserve banking will become a tidal wave as the economic crisis deepens. Within two decades at most, the fiat system will be dead, and with it, banking as we know it today.

The group behind the bill made stunningly adept and forceful presentations. It was an historic occasion, one I have longed to see for over 40 years, a state legislative body seriously listening to the requirements of constitution and common sense. Thank God I was privileged to witness it!

Mark this, and remember: we are witnessing the end of fiat. We will see silver and gold restored as money, and with them, lasting and stable prosperity. But first the old must die.

Markets today:

STOCKS gave back 116 points (on the Dow) of yesterday's gains. Whether this was the market's normal zig-zag, or 'twas responding to Ben and Tim's Dog and Pony show, who knows. If the latter, then markets don't care much for Timmy's latest Save the Banks plan. Nothing changed that I see. Stocks still rallying toward 9,000 - 9,800, then another drop.

US DOLLAR INDEX strengthened today, rising 56 basis points to 84 and a fingernail. Trend still down.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES took a sock in the jaw. Gold dropped 28.80 to 923.30, silver 51.8 cents to 1334.4 cents. These extended corrections are very frustrating, chopping back and forth, up and down, disappointing and enticing. It's just the way of the world, so don't let it borrow you. Gold now finds itself once again near support at 920. Friends, this is called a "dip" so you ought to be buying here, not puking in your wastebaskets like some green stockbroker.

Quit ye like men!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, March 23, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Looked Confused When the Comex Closed Today

Gold Price Close Today : $952.10
Change: 3.70 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.862
Change: 3.5 cents or 0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 68.68
Change: -0.441 or -0.6%

Dow Industrial: 7,775.86
Change: 497.48 or 6.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 83.45
Change: -0.26 or -0.3%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES looked confused when the Comex closed today at 12:30 central time, with gold down $3.70 to 952.10 and silver up 3.5 cents to $13.862. When stocks exploded upward, that sucked air out from under gold and it dropped to 938 (silver lost 12 cents). Does this surprise anyone, that a big bear rally in stocks take eyes off gold? It shouldn't have.

Silver and gold have both gotten ahead of themselves. They're not likely to drop much, given the epidemic of Fear of the Fed and the Almighty Collapsing Dollar, but they can wear us out going sideways for a month.

Stay with silver and gold. Buy on every dip. Wall Street's wholly-owned Treasury Secretary Timmy Geithner finally published the Plan to Rid Banks of Toxic Assets, and guess what? It stuffs a fat plum down Wall St.'s mouth. First they floated the mortgage backed securities which they knew would eventually sink like a -- well, lump -- in a churn, and sold them at at 150 cents on the dollar, shorting them in effect. Then when they have reached the bottom and nobody wants to buy them, forth steps the heroes for a "public-private partnership" who will buy back the securities at 3 cents on the dollar, with 90% loans from the government! and when the toxic assets reach 85 cents on the dollar, they will sell them, having made billions, nay, trillions shorting them, and re-buying them.

Lawsy mercy! Don't y'all love the American Way?

Bear market rallies -- rallies against a primary down downtrend fated to continue down -- come on strong & sudden. They look like they are about to blow the top off the thermometer, but they are part of the bear's bag of tricks to lure investors into his den where he can maul them at his leisure.

Case in point: Today's stock market rally, up 497.48 points on the Dow, up 54 on the S&P500. Wow. Up 4.3%. Wow. It climbed through the Oct. 2002 low, so that convinced more victims to hop on. And tomorrow it may jump another 400 points, & it will appear stronger than a garlic milkshake, until it evaporates just as suddenly. And it will.

US DOLLAR INDEX dropped again today. Looks like it will be sinking for a while.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, March 20, 2009

Once the Gold Price pierces US$1,000, it Will Swiftly Move Toward US$1,250, then US$1,600. Buy Now

Gold Price Close Today : $955.80
Gold Price Close 27th February: $930.20
Change: 25.60 or 2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : $1382.7
Silver Price Close 27th February: $1326
Change: -56.70 cents or 4.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.13
Gold Silver Ratio Close 27th February: 70.15
Change: -1.03 or -1.5%

Dow Industrial: 7,278.38
Dow Close 27th February: 7,210.52
Change: 67.860 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 83.708
US Dollar Close 27th February: 87.413
Change: -3.705 or -4.2%


The Gold/Silver ratio this week reached to 72, where you ought to have swapped gold for silver. If it gets there again, swap.

The GOLD PRICE now has put its feet on the road to $1,000 again. Next week it must add to its gains, or melt back for more correction. That appears unlikely, given the astonishing strength this week.

Shortages of gold coins are worsening, delays stretching out. That also points toward higher prices. Once the gold price pierces US$1,000, it will swiftly move toward US$1,250, then US$1,600. Buy now.

The next big move in the market will be a huge gain by silver against gold. Recall that silver took a much worse hit than gold in the decline last fall, so silver has much ground to reclaim. It's easy to imagine silver in the upper 2000s or even lower 3000s this spring, or by year-end. Yep, I know it sounds crazy, but it will prove perfectly sane.

By announcing it would double its balance sheet for the second time in a twelvemonth & buy US debt, the Fed announced at the same time that the US dollar is dead, or at least, would soon be executed. The words were not lost on the markets, who knew what they meant. The US DOLLAR INDEX dropped 255 basis points, while the gold price shot up US$60.

Don't miss the significance of what these Fed goofs are calling "quantitative easing." It is "printing money." It is the same method Rudolf von Havenstein used when he was President of the German Reichsbank during the 1921 - 1923 inflation.

The comrades at the Fed have decided to sacrifice the dollar, and your economic future with it. What I can't figure out is what keeps y'all from marching on Washington with pitchforks, torches, and rope.

STOCKS began rallying this week, but today gave back some of those gains. Probably the martini and Long Island traders closing out positions before the weekend. Dow has a rally up to 9,400 -9,800, then will fall again, for the bottom hath not yet been espied.

US Dollar index has briefly found a resting place in the mid 83s, but will fall further. Certainly answers the question in my mind about whether it would resume its rally. It won't.

Y'all have a great weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, March 19, 2009

The Gold Price is Headed for Another Shot at $1,000, and May Pierce this Time

Gold Price Close Today : $958.30
Change: 69.60 or 7.83%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.50
Change: $1.55 or 12.40%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.9851

Dow Industrial: 7,400.8
Change: -85.78 or -1.15%

US Dollar Index Today: 83.17
Change: -255

Silver and gold prices have a best friend, and it's Big Ben Bernanke. Yesterday the gold price had broken down, and was headed lower, but Ben engineered one of the last decade's most dramatic turnarounds. The gold price leapt nearly 60 bucks, silver 100 cents. Today's figures take yesterday's low closes into account, with the gold price up $69.60 to $958.30 and the silver price up to $13.60, up $1.55.

The upshot was the first half of a key reversal (break to a new low for the move with a higher close), confirmed today by higher closes. The gold price is headed for another shot at $1,000, and may pierce this time. The silver price needs to climb over this $13.50 mark, done today. Next barrier is $14.50..

The next big move to expect in silver and gold prices is a dramatic rise by silver against gold (the ratio will drop drastically).

Yesterday the US Dollar Index dropped 255 basis points. I looked and stuttered. I have never seen a move like that. Bernanke and the other meddlers have laid hands on the Primal Forces of the Universe. Imagine giving college frat boys the keys to the car, a case of gin, & thermonuclear warheads. You'll get a flavour of what has happened.

Never stand in the way of gigantic, fierce market moves. If you've been waiting to buy silver and gold, stop waiting. Buy now. Get out of dollars as quickly as you can.

I hope y'all are seriously considering your future. I try to avoid dwelling on negatives, but dollar depreciation leads directly to unemployment, poverty, and violence. If you live in a city, better locate a back door.

Yesterday the Federal Open Market Committee announced the US Dollar's coming demise. Oh, the dollar is still ambulatory, but the Fed doubling its balance sheet again, after already doubling it in the past 12 months, tells you the dollar is dead. You can keep hoping, you can keep sticking your fingers in your ears and your head in the sand, but the Fed announced yesterday that the Dollar most surely will be sacrificed to meet the dirigist and socialist agenda. Let the banks be saved, though the heavens fall!

One of my great amusements in life is hearing Comrade Obama and other Washington cadre call government spending "investment." How cutely Orwellian! Now every time I want to buy a pack of cigarettes, I can say, "Hey! I want to go invest $4.50 in the economy by buying a 50 cent pack of smokes and giving the government $4.50 to invest."

Paid subscribers to the monthly Moneychanger can log-in and the website & pick up their newly posted March 2009 issue. If you aren't a paid subscriber but would like to subscribe, you can visit http://the-moneychanger.com/orde/subscriptions.phtml,

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Use any Declines to Buy More Silver and Gold

Gold Price Close Today : $916.40
Change: -5.20 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.685
Change: -22 cents or -1.7%

Gold Silver Ratio: 72.24
Change: 0.829 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial: 7,395.70
Change: 178.73 or 2.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 86.87
Change: -0.13 or -0.1%

'Twas a day not remarkable, & less interesting for the sunshine and sweet air outside. STOCKS kept on climbing, now above 7,250, another confirmation a rally has begun. Don't let the rally mentality seduce your eyes off the long term. This is a bear market rally only.

US DOLLAR INDEX fell below 87 today to close at 86.871. I expect that break will bring on much more downside.

The GOLD PRICE dropped another $5.20 today to $916.40. The SILVER PRICE fell 22 cents to $12.685. Both remain in the trading range I laid out yesterday, so this is no dramatic development.

Y'all will just have to patiently wait out this range trading. Use any declines to buy more silver and gold.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, March 16, 2009

We're Liable to Have Several Weeks of Frustrating Back and Forth Trading for Gold and Silver

Gold Price Close Today : $924.60
Change: -5.20 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.910
Change: -32 cents or -2.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.62
Change: -1.339 or -1.9%

Dow Industrial: 7,216.97
Change: 0.50 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.06
Change: -0.19 or -0.2%

Now it seems my enthusiasm last week was premature. We're liable to have several weeks of frustrating back and forth trading, with a low range of $12.00- $12.40 for silver and $850 - $890 for gold, and a high of $13.50 and $940. Closes above those highs mean they have broken out, closes below the lows mean deeper correction. Everything inbetween is just noise.

Keep buying silver & gold on dips. Strongly possible they will NOT get near lows cited above.

Stocks lost a few points today, but are building or still higher moves. If you still have stocks, look to sell them from 9400 to 9800.

The dollar index continues to confirm a down trend, down 19 basis points today to 87.06. No reason to expect the dollar to turn around, but a close above 90.50 would signal an upside breakout. Below 87, the market pulls the plug.


Outside it's 65 degrees, sunny, smells like spring, bees are working the little ground flowers, birds are singing, one of our sows had another litter of pigs, & none of my mind is on markets. The mamma of those pigs is a rare Tennessee Red Leopard pig, & of her 11 piglets, three are the unique Tennessee Tiger-striped Red Leopard, a breed found only in one farm in Tennessee.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, March 13, 2009

The Gold Price Will Test US$1,600 in 2009 - That Will Take the Silver Price as High as $32, Maybe Higher

Gold Price Close Today : $930.20
Gold Price Close 27th February: $942.10
Change: -11.90 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.26
Silver Price Close 27th February: $13.323
Change: -6.30 cents or -0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.15
Gold Silver Ratio Close 27th February: 70.71
Change: -0.56 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial: 7,210.52
Dow Close 27th February: 6,624.94
Change: 585.580 or 8.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.413
US Dollar Close 27th February: 88.680
Change: -1.267 or -1.4%

Big Question this week is whether silver and gold prices have really finished correcting, or not. I thought we might see lower action, maybe as low as $850, or even a quick break below that, but the gold price dropped to $888 and refused to kneel further. Today it closed up at $930.50, which is right in the resistance area. Next hurdle is $942, which turned it back on the last try. Expect next week to see the gold price rising.

One event points portentously at higher silver and gold prices: failing supply. In the last two days two wholesalers have told me they will not sell American Eagles until further notice. Why? They can't get them. Another told me he would sell them, but without any guarantee when he would be able to deliver. Deliveries on other gold coins have now stretched out to two weeks. Silver rounds may be backing up again. Buyers are ravenous.

The SILVER PRICE, I know, lost 6.3 cents this week, but that statistic doesn't tell the whole story. Between last week and this silver went down to 12.46 and revived. Still, I will admit, it is down on the week. Monday silver much walk through 13.50 like Robert E. Lee & Stonewall Jackson walking thru Joe Hooker at Chancellorsville.

If silver and gold are as strong as I think they are, they won't falter next week, but will make good gains within the first couple of days.

Sometime this year, perhaps this spring, the gold price will test US$1,600. That will take silver as high as $32, maybe higher. The bull market in silver and gold, notwithstanding the "experts" in Newsweek, has much longer, and much further, to run. Hop in now or be left hacking in the dust.

Before I forget about it, Catherine Austin Fitts has very graciously made available to you the MP3 file of her Solari Report where I answered the most common questions about investing in silver and gold. You can download it for free at http://solari.com/library/franklin. While you're there, consider subscribing to Catherine's weekly Solari Report, available by live telephone hook up. Catherine is one of those rare people who brings the best out of everyone she talks to. Visit her at www.solari.com.

One more thing: forget the stories about the US urging the IMF to sell its gold. Iss old propaganda ploy, Comrade! That old "sell the IMF gold" duck has been trotted out since 1992 whenever the Nice Government Men want to drive down gold. For anybody who has been following gold more than 12 months, "Sell IMF Gold" brings only a sneer of derision to the lips. NGM must be sweating bullets and swallowing hard, since even Newsweek contained an article demeaning gold and gold buyers this week.

These are imagination-challenged folks. That the best y'all can do, NGM?

Stocks began their "rally" (in quotation marks) this week, and it surely ought to carry to 9,000, maybe 9,800. Keep a close watch if you have stocks to sell, because you won't get another chance any time soon. Stocks are nowhere near their low value yet.

It's so hard to like the US Dollar Index, because the dollar is so hard on its friends. It broke above the old 88 high, but didn't follow through and has spent weeks pretending it's going to move higher, without ever doing it. Needs to close above 90.50 to confirm an uptrend, otherwise it will at last close below 87 and begin sinking in earnest.

On this day in 1933 banks began to open after Roosevelt's Banking holiday. About 1/3 of the nations' 15,000 banks shut permanently, & today I heard Ben Bernanke say one of the silliest things I've heard since, "If gold were adopted as money, there wouldn't be enough to go around." Ben the B said (I heard it on National Proletarian Radio, so I know it's true) that we couldn't let the banks fail because during the great depression a third of the banks failed and so there weren't enough banks to do all the necessary lending. So, what?! Every bank could only lend X dollars & no more? Come on, Ben! You can do better than this, surely. Throw in some aliens or a conspiracy or something to make it believable. Hey, how about this: aliens from the planet Zambodia kidnapped all the bankers in 1933 & turned them into walking catfish and dropped them out over Florida, where the ones that didn't get run over crossing highways morphed into developers.

If y'all want to have a good time this weekend, go someplace they're playing "Soldier's Joy" on a banjo. Just don't get caught in a tavern shooting.

Y'all have a great weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, March 12, 2009

Assuming Gold Makes Good on 927 Tomorrow and Trades Higher - Buy Gold

Gold Price Close Today : $925.20
Change: 14.80 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.020
Change: 20.5 cents or 1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.06
Change: 0.018 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 7,170.06
Change: 239.66 or 3.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.32
Change: -0.30 or -0.3%


Whoa -- strange day! Better not get on the wrong side of this one.

STOCKS rocketed up 239 points to close the Dow at 7,170.06 and the S&P500 at 756.74. A close over 7,255 confirms that the long-awaited rally hath arrived. Watch it closely for your chance to sell any remaining stocks. Have y'all noticed how the stock market and the US Dollar are moving inversely to each other? Mmmmm.

The US DOLLAR INDEX closed down 31 basis points at 87.324. Bill Murphy pointed out this evening in his LeMetropoleCafe.com commentary that the Swiss announced today they have been selling francs against the euro and intend to buy bonds. Ominously, the first salvo in the currency wars and the race to depreciate your own currency. Bad for fiat national currencies, very good for gold.

This morning silver and gold prices were fiddling around, then suddenly the gold price leapt up US$10. It was knocking on 930. I threw in the towel on my bearishness and bought. I wondered later in the day if I'd made a mistake. Got a bit nervous as the aftermarket backed off to 923, but now its trading over 927, which if y'all remember is my technical break point. No telling what skulduggery governments are mounting unseen, but somebody knows enough to buy gold. Don't fight this rise, don't get cheap. Assuming it makes good on 927 tomorrow and trades higher, buy gold.

SILVER in the aftermarket is trading pennies from its 200 day moving average at 13.10. If this advance is genuine, it needs to climb over that and then best 13.50. Look for a strong day tomorrow. Buy silver, too.

Another hint that something is happening behind the curtains: gold and silver supply are beginning to dry up again. Deliveries are lengthening out to 2 weeks. One big dealer stopped trading American Eagles today -- supply not reliable enough. That's like hearing the wind sigh through the treetops when you know a hurricane is coming.

Y'all are some of the kindest people in the world. Thank you for your e-mails confirming you're praying for my wife, Susan, and for your many suggestions.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, March 11, 2009

The Gold Price Rallied $14 Today to 909.60

Gold Price Close Today : $909.60
Change: 14.00 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.850
Change: 29 cents or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.79
Change: -0.520 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 6,930.40
Change: 3.91 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.62
Change: -1.23 or -1.4%

Markets like this are no fun. You can't get it right whatever you do -- it's just choppy sideways volatility. You might come in tomorrow morning and gold and silver might be up 5% or down 5%, not to mention everything else. Here goes anyway, Murphy's Law notwithstanding.

Stocks can rally easily to 8,000, maybe 9,000, or to the 200 day moving average (DMA) at 9,800. Friends, if they do you had best unload your remaining stocks then.

The US DOLLAR INDEX appears to be rolling over downward. A close below 87 would send it falling fast.

The GOLD PRICE rallied $14 today to 909.60, above my 906 support. But I am as suspicious as a wife whose husband comes home at 4:00 a.m. smelling strongly of drink and claiming he's been practicing with the church bell ringers. I want proof, which means a close tomorrow or the next day above 920. Gold's 200 DMA stands at 858, right above very strong support at 850, so I doubt that gold would drop further than that, even in the worst case.

The SILVER PRICE is locked between its 50 DMA (12.34) and 200 DA (13.13), and locked in a downtrend unless it can close above 1350. Most probable outcome is range trading for the next couple of weeks, bound between 14.59 and 11.80. A close above 13.50 will prove my doubts groundless.

I am sure enough getting tired of the End of the World. No wonder we don't do these very often, they're about as entertaining as spreading asphalt on a hot day. The devil's loose and having a big time.

I thank all of y'all who write in response to my request for prayer for my wife. I deeply appreciate it.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Took a Pounding Today

Gold Price Close Today : $892.10
Change: -25.60 or -2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.525
Change: -42.5 cents or -3.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.23
Change: -0.520 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 6,930.40
Change: 3.91 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.62
Change: -1.23 or -1.4%

Silver and gold prices took a pounding today. Gold dropped 25.60 to 892.10, well below the 905 support that ought to have held unless more weakness lay in our future. Today's low was 890.85, which is another area of support (888 - 890). That might hold, but with stocks rallying and hedge funds pushing huge gobs of money around, gold might not hold. Below that gold has to reckon with US$850.

The silver price closed at 12.5250, down 42.5 cents. Low today was 12.46. As with gold, this marks a previous low and would could hold as a double bottom. However, more likely, given the outrageously bullish sentiment on silver and gold the past couple of weeks, it probably won't. The market needs to get a lot more negative on both. Of course, a couple of weeks of sideways movement could do that, without much lower prices.

Whether metals decline more or trade sideways from here, later this spring they ought to perk up again and make another shot forUS$1,000.

Several readers have sent me references on sites that may be useful in ferreting out counterfeit gold coins. A very good website from a dealer is www.onlygold.com/TurorialPages/Coin_SpecsFulScreen Version.htm, which gives diameters and thicknesses for a raft of coins. If you are serious about detecting counterfeits, you can visit www.fisch.co.za, a company which makes & sells a very handy and quick counterfeit detector. However, as I wrote earlier, simply weighing coins will expose most counterfeits, because silver & gold & platinum are so much denser than other metals. A lead counterfeit, would have to be 54% thicker that a regular Krugerrand, or it would weigh in 35% light.

Y'all please pray for my wife, Susan. She feels fine, but her heart rhythm won't settle down and she may need a pacemaker.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, March 09, 2009

Be Calm and Buy the Dips

Gold Price Close Today : $919.20
Change: 22.90 or -2.4%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.820
Change: -50.3 cents or -3.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.70
Change: 0.988 or 1.4%

Dow Industrial: 6,547.05
Change: -79.89 or -79.89

US Dollar Index Today: 89.16
Change: 0.61 or 0.7%

The GOLD PRICE fell back 22.90 today to land at 919.20. This is in the hazy edges of support that runs from 920 to 927. Silver dropped 50.3 cents to 12.82. It appears we are in for several frustrating weeks of back and forth. Gold might turn around tomorrow and reach for $1000 again, then next day fall back. Ahead probably lies one more failed push toward $1,000, then a drop to 920, 906, or lower (880?), before gold finally takes off and pushes through $1,000.

The SILVER PRICE will ride along, running between 14.38 and 11.00. These corrections always tax nerves and patience. Be calm and buy the dips. Nothing fundamental or technical has changed to change our strategy. Get out of stocks and dollars and into silver and gold.

I have a feeling I've been in this place before.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today rose 60.5 basis points to reach 89.16. This is the same old talking out of both sides of its mouth, not high enough to unequivocally break out upside, never low enough to break down. Probably this is merely burning up ammunition preparing to surrender, but it could just as well turn and rise. We just have to wait for the market to tell us.

Stocks -- now what do y'all think I'm going to say? -- fell again today. Dow dropped 80 points to 6547, the S&P500 6.85 points to 676.53 Stocks did not reach a new low against gold, however.

I messed up again. Some computer demon put a typographical error in my Gold Coin gross weight chart, and I had the 1/2 oz. American Eagle/Krugerrand entry wrong. I've uploaded a corrected version, so go back to www.the-moneychanger.com & download it again, please. I apologize.

One reader wrote me that coin weights alone would not be enough to detect every counterfeit. True, but it will catch most of them. For the rest, you'll have to buy a micrometer and write each national mint to find out the diameter and thickness. Alternatively, you can get a genuine coin and compare all else against that. In the coming days I'll give y'all a few more tips on identifying counterfeits.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, March 06, 2009

This Week Saw Gold and Silver Prices Climb Out of Their Correction

Gold Price Close Today : $942.10
Gold Price Close 27th February: $941.50
Change: -0.60 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.323
Silver Price Close 27th February: $13.085
Change: 23.80 cents or 1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.71
Gold Silver Ratio Close 27th February: 71.95
Change: -1.24 or -1.7%

Dow Industrial: 6,624.94
Dow Close 27th February: 7,062.93
Change: -437.990 or -6.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 88.680
US Dollar Close 27th February: 88.097
Change: 0.583 or 0.7%

This week saw gold and silver prices climb out of their correction, saw stocks weak enough to make every stockbroker in the country puke in his wastebasket twice a day, and saw the dollar index running back and forth like a goose in a new world.

The GOLD PRICE roared back this week with a close over 927, bettered today to 942.10. More ominously for those still trying to buy, deliveries began to lengthen again this week, and premiums crept up on American Eagles. Buyers are starving, clamouring for gold. It appears set up for another test at US$1,000, but I'm not sure it will breach that wall on this try. May take one more.

The SILVER PRICE climbed above its 200 day moving average (now 13.24) and gained slightly on gold this week. Most of this year it has been leading gold and pulling at the leash. Big hurdle is the lip of the saucer rim at 13.50. A cross above that sends silver skyward. Close below 13.00 means silver has more work to do base-building.

Reason I'm holding back on silver and gold is that the correction seemed awfully steep and sudden, without the usual A-B-C pattern. That means that the present move might be a B-wave that fools everyone with its enthusiasm, then evaporates into another down leg. Even if that is true, gold would not drop below 920 or so and silver probably not below 12.80. My worry will be proved pointless when gold closes above US$1003.00

US DOLLAR INDEX made it as high as 89.16, but can't better the last high at 88 any further than that. Ned Schmidt speculated today that the only trades working for hedge funds were shorting stocks and going long dollars (shorting euro & yen). Maybe that accounts for dollar strength, maybe it's mobs fleeing to liquidity around the globe. Still, no matter what they do to raise the dollar, Obama & Co. are ahead of them in Washington, depreciating the dollar. Long term, the dollar will follow the same trajectory as an anvil dropped off the Empire State Building. Use any dollar strength to get out of any investment that promises to pay dollars in the future: CDs, bank deposits, annuities, bonds, even hedge your pension if you can.

STOCKS have the appearance of something in one of those horror movies where you fall down this black pit to the center of the earth. Surely sometime a rally will come, but when? Meanwhile if stocks don't rally, my targets are 6,250; 5,891; and 4,958. look for any rally to get out of any remaining stocks you hold.

As stocks are making new 12-year lows this week, they are also making new lows against gold and silver. Dow in Gold Dollars made a new low today, G$145.37 (7.032), on its way to the eventual 2 oz. or less. Dow in Silver made a new low at 495.88 oz.

Susan and I live about 12 minutes from our farm, and when we pulled up this morning we stopped to look at the sows in the field with our Large Black boar, Nefarious. Several of them look pregnant, but I didn't see the one that looked MOST pregnant. When a pig is about to farrow, her belly hangs low and her teats begin to fill with milk. We got back into Tojo (our old Isuzu trooper) and drove to the gate. There by the gate was the missing Large Black sow, with seven miniature piglets. She had made herself a big nest (yes, pigs nest) and farrowed last night. Large Blacks are a rare breed and wondrous pig, big, fast-growing, and gentle as a dog.

Y'all have a great weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, March 05, 2009

Today's Dramatic Rise in Silver and Gold Prices Says the Worst of the Correction is Most Likely Behind Us

Gold Price Close Today : $927.00
Change: 21.00 or 2.3%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.105
Change: 20.5 cents or 1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.74
Change: 0.504 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial: 6,594.44
Change: -281.40 or -4.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 89.08
Change: 0.59 or 0.7%

Here are a few tidbits from the wire today:
** Bank of England lowers Libor rate to lowest in 315 year history, 1/2%, & announces "quantitative easing" (Translation: "will begin printing money")

** Citigroup, trading as the largest capitalization bank in the US in 2007 at $55/share, today fell under $1/share for first time in history.

** GM filed SEC statements that it may not be able to stay out of bankruptcy.

** Dow Jones Industrial average fell another 300 points, with no end in sight.

** European central bank lowered rate to 1.5%

TODAY stocks continued their relentless march to the bottom, led by the same financial companies that landed the economy in this mess to begin with. There's a certain rough justice about that. S&P500 may have to kick some of them out of the index, & the DJIA is supposed to take out any stock that trades under $10/share. Some have, but Dow hasn't.

US DOLLAR INDEX poked its head above 89 again today, up 59 basis points to close at 89.083. To confirm an uptrend the dollar index still needs to close above 90.50.

Be careful what you say, because chances are it'll come back around to slap you in the jaws. Case in point: yesterday I wrote that "A close above 927 would take away all doubt a bottom has been made." In the outcome, the gold price closed -- exactly at 927. Now the earlier close this year was 927.30, but popping up 21 bucks from yesterday, I'd say that counts as gold's confirmation it isn't going lower. Add to that its touch against its lower trading channel boundary yesterday, and I'd say we've seen the low. A close below 906 would negate that.

From 13.125 on 10 Feb. silver leapt to 13.51 the next day. The 13.05 - 13.15 area is crowded with leaps & turns, so silver's close today at 13.1050 is also a bit equivocal, like gold's.

Adding to the case for a bottom was the strong aftermarket taking metals to 934 and 13.34.

Today's dramatic rise in silver and gold price says the worst of the correction is most likely behind us. Now we should get a spicy rise, followed by another down leg, but to higher lows than we've seen already.

That downloadable file with gold coin gross weights has been posted to our home page, www.the-moneychanger.com. Look for "What's new: Protect yourself against counterfeits."

While you're at our website, click on "Subscribe" and look for our internet special. You can subscribe to the monthly Moneychanger for only $95, versus the usual $149.00 price, plus receive a copy of my novel, Heiland.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, March 04, 2009

900 - 905 Level Holds the Key for the Gold Price

Gold Price Close Today : $906.00
Change: -6.90 or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.90
Change: 20.5 cents or 1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.23
Change: -1.678 or -2.3%

Dow Industrial: 6,875.84
Change: 149.82 or 2.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 88.57
Change: -0.62 or -0.7%

GOLD and SILVER PRICES left me scratching my forehead today, but I think I see what's happening. The gold price fell 6.90 to 906 while the silver rose 20.5 cents to 12.90 and platinum rose 11.20 and palladium rose 6.65. Not quite unanimous. The gold price made a lower low today, by about five bucks to 899.45, then rose. The silver price made a higher low today than yesterday (12.66 v. 12.41) and closed up. Since the year began the silver price has been leading upmoves -- maybe we're seeing that now? No question this 900 - 905 level holds the key for the gold price. If it gives, the gold price will hit 888. In any event, I expect to see gold's low this week. If it breaks 900, it will happen tomorrow. A close above 927 would take away all doubt that the bottom has been made.

Yes, this IS a correction, and, yes, I would still be buying.

Recent Coin World article about counterfeit gold & silver coins coming out of China has people panicked, and the panic-mongers on the Internet are swarming. Relax. In 29 years' dealing with silver and gold, I have had only one experience with counterfeit bullion coins. On the other hand, pre-1934 gold coins are not-infrequently counterfeited. For your peace of mind I am posting tomorrow a downloadable chart showing gold coins' gross weight in grams. Most likely counterfeit will be light-weight gold-plated brass, or gold-shy alloy. To reach correct weight crooks must use platinum (too expensive) or lead, but lead goes "thud" when dropped.

Today the US DOLLAR INDEX fell 62 basis points, and other indicators are whispering that the dollars tee-tiny push through the old top at 88 was merely a double top, and not a continuation of anything.

Apparently stocks like a weak dollar (good thing for them, since they're going to get plenty of weak dollar for a long time), because today the Dow rose 149.82 to 6875.84 while the S&P500 rose 16.54 to 712.87. I had to laugh at a Market Watch headline that read, "Stocks lock in a solid 2%." Right, after falling a solid 50% from their high. But the point is that stocks have been falling for five straight days, and after a stretch like that, some sort of rebound is likely, and doesn't mean a thing until they rebound over some meaningful level -- like the Oct. 2002 low 375 points above today's close.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Good Chance That Silver and Gold Prices Bottomed Today

Gold Price Close Today : $912.90
Change: -26.10 or -2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.695
Change: -35.5 cents or -2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.91
Change: -0.044 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial: 6,726.02
Change: -37.27 or -0.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 89.16
Change: 0.26 or 0.3%

Good chance that silver and gold prices bottomed today. Might not have looked like, seeing that waterfall down 26.10 in the gold price to 912.90 and the silver price tumbling 35.50 cents to 12.695, but both were snappy in the aftermarket at 915.50 and 12.83.

Gold's low today was 904.50, and remember that 905-ish level was strong resistance on the way up, so it contributes strong support now. We may see the gold price touch back to 905 after a brief rise, but I don't think 905.00 will be breached. If 'tis, 'twill be at the opening tomorrow. If the gold price withstands that, we've see the bottom. And if gold falls thru 905, don't expect it to drop lower than $880.00.

Silver's low today was 12.41, a number that ought to ring familiar on y'all's ears. As gold goes, so goes silver. That's probably the bottom.

My wife thought I had finally gone crazy this morning. She was dressing in the bedroom and I was in the bathroom brushing my teeth, and both of us were listening to National Proletarian Radio ("Brought to you by the world wide socialist revolution -- visit us a www.killacapitalist.org.") I was laughing so hard Susan thought something must be wrong, but I couldn't help it. It was one feckless, lunatic commentary after another. The rotten financial, political, and government structures are crashing down around their ears, and all these loops can do is parrot, "Save the banks! Save the banks!" I exploded when the goof on the stock market commentary wound up by counselling the victims (those listening) to stay in the stock market so they don't miss the next rally. Took me four minutes to clean all the toothpaste off the mirror.

If I had been writing a parody of stupid things clueless announcers might say, it was the script for this morning's show on Radio Red Alabama. What a hoot.

Meanwhile the stock market graph today looked like the EKG off a patient in ventricular fibrillation being zapped with a defibrillator -- up and down, up and down, then down for good. No, the Dow didn't sink too much, down 27.67 to rest 6,726.02, yet another new low. S&P 500 sank 4.49 to 696.33. From here, my targets at 6,000 and 6,250 don't look too far away -- but then, I don't work for National Proletarian Radio.

US dollar index today rose another 26 basis points to 89.16. As I said yesterday, it needs to beat 90.50 to pass the 3%-breakout test, but whether it rises further or not won't make much difference to silver and gold. They've cut loose from all the fiat currencies, dollar, euro, and yen, to walk their own upward path.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, March 02, 2009

Gold's Present Correction Should End this Week

Gold Price Close Today : $939.00
Change: -2.50 or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.050
Change: -3.5 cents or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.95
Change: 0.01 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 6,830.04
Change: -232.89 or -3.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 88.90
Change: 0.73 or 0.8%

In his commentary today Bill Murphy of LeMetropoleCafe.com remarked that the Talking Heads were talking hogwash, claiming that the rising dollar and T-bond show that investors were fleeing to safety, while gold dropped. He smelt Nice Government Men
at work. After all, they wouldn't want the headlines to read,"Dow Tanks While Gold Soars." That might make some peasants nervous.

Time to think about stocks. In 1929 from the high for that year, which happened to be the all-time high as well, the Dow fell 48%. From its 1929 high to its ultimate low 8 July 1932 (at two oz. of gold, by the way), the Dow lost 89.2%, but that was only after it had rallied from Nov. 1929 - April 1930 by 42.5%.

From the Dow's all time high in October 2007 until today, the Dow has lost 51.8%. From its 2008 high in May until today, the Dow has lost 47.5%. Since the presidential election for change 4 Nov. 2008, the Dow has certainly changed: down 29%.

But here's the odd thing: the Dow trades at its lowest level since 1996, but doesn't make a new low against gold today. That could mean the Dow is near a bottom. Still could fall to 6,250, however.

Fear sends people fleeing into cash, and face it, the US dollar is the international cash. Hence the US Dollar index profited today, gaining 73.2 basis points to close at 88.9. Yep, that is over the old 88 peak, but to satisfy the 3% rule that proves a breakout, the Dollar Index needs to close above 90.50. Makes little difference, as we have already seen the decoupling of gold & the dollar.

The present correction in the Gold Price should end this week. Whether it falls to 920, or 905, or 890, I can't say, but the low should come this week. Relief in the stock market will relieve pressure on gold.

Most disturbing about gold was its fall from 939 at closing time to 923 -- suddenly -- in the aftermarket. Moves like that would scare a sleeping Rent-a-cop. Buck up, though, little Buckaroos -- buying on market declines is our job, never mind that it feels like your stomach is busy boiling old socks.

The Silver Price didn't fall quite as badly in the aftermarket, from 1305 to a low of 1284 (that I saw), then back to 1296 now.

Despite all the fear, these are merely classic buying opportunities.

If you are ever going to swap gold for silver, now is your time, from here (71.75:1) all the way to 75:1. Only decent buy is 100 oz. off brand silver bars at 90 cents over spot, but even at that the potential is gargantuan.

Weather here is treacherous as the stock market. Last week it was 72 degrees. All the daffodils were out in my yard, and Saturday night we had a 7 inch snow fall, and drop to 14 degrees. Those daffodils were drooping and crying this morning.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.