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Thursday, April 30, 2009

More Dollars to Buy the Same Amount of Silver and Gold Means Eventually, Higher Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 890.70
Change: -9.10 or -1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 12.305
Change: -44.9 cents or -3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio: 72.39
Change: 1.835 or 2.6%

Dow Industrial: 8,168.12
Change: -17.61 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 84.78
Change: 0.12 or 0.1%

STOCKS dropped a piddling 17.61 today to close at 8,168.12 (Dow) and 872.81, down 0.83
on the S&P500. this is not fatal, but it also ain't a breakout over the needful 8,200. Stocks are running out of time AND steam. Here's a guess: next move up, but not by much. 9,000 looks like the top of the rally, at most.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose today 11.5 basis points to close at a less than resplendent 84.781. Dollar's not making monetary history here, unless it be for being low bred and sorry. Expect lower prices.

YET despite a lower dollar generally, gold and silver can't break through resistance at 920 and 900 or 12.80 - 13.00. What gives?

For one thing, the Nice Government Men (who, for those of you who might miss my acid sarcasm, are not nice and not half men) are working overtime to talk down gold, dragging out that old "IMF gold sales" red herring and dragging that across the tracks of the dying dollar, to throw off gold investors. Let 'em sell all of it, I say, every last drop and speck, so they will no longer be able to hold it over the market and wage their propaganda war against gold. In its present state, the market would suck down that gold without a hiccup, like a 7-year-old sucking down a chocolate milkshake. Not even a burp. Yet we must deal with the ignorant, the unknowing, the naïve, the new players who don't see through this ploy.

This is all ye know, and all ye need to know: the yankee government is creating dollars as fast as its little computers will go, and will keep on doing that. More dollars to buy the same amount of silver and gold means eventually, higher prices, sure as anvils fall straight down from 747 Jumbo jets.

The GOLD PRICE today dropped 9.10, trading early in the day as low as 880.50, but it rallied back handily and closed above the critical 889 support.



The SILVER PRICE dropped 44.9 cents to close on Comex at $12.305. Low posted at $12.175.



This is the same old range trading, but it is not without danger. More times a market re-visits an area, more likely it is to break through, up or down. Both silver and gold need to get into gear and move up, not fast, but up.

A duty has arisen that will take me out of town on Monday, 4 May. I will return on 5 May, God willing.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt --
-- Silver and gold must be bought.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Gold and Silver Prices Need to Rise Above 920 and 13.25 to Confirm an Upside Breakout - Otherwise, Buy the Dips -- Every One

Gold Price Close Today : 899.80
Change: 7.00 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 12.754
Change: 35.4 cents or 2.9%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.55
Change: -1.450 or -2.0%

Dow Industrial: 7175,63
Change: 168.78 or 2.11%

US Dollar Index: 84.57
Change: -0.63 or -0.7%

The GOLD PRICE has rallied from US$867.40 twelve days ago to US$899.40 today. Only fly in the ointment is that gold also climbed as high as 920 but never followed through. And today the gold price closed pennies below 900, a psychological thump (thanks a lot, Nice Government Men!).





All this works out to what I was expecting when I left for New Mexico: a trading range correction where you ought to buy the dips. Unless gold closes below 889 tomorrow, buy it now. Big support lies at 860. A close below that would take gold down to 820 or 800, but the longer gold goes without that break, the lower the chance of that. Now, having survived and prospered the last couple of weeks, gold, I think, has weathered the storm. Worst is past.

In the last 12 days the SILVER PRICE has vastly outperformed the gold price, 8.2% to 3.7%. This underscores why I keep on urging y'all to buy more silver than gold. The silver price drops further in corrections, but rises faster in rallies, than the gold price. Silver now stands about its 200 day moving average (12.35) but below its 50 DMA (13.03), which coincides with resistance at 13.05. Today the silver price rose 35.4 cents to 12.754.

Gold and silver prices need to rise above 920 and 13.25 to confirm an upside breakout. Otherwise, buy the dips -- every one.

It's been 12 days since I published a commentary because I was traveling with my wife and five of my 11 grandsons in New Mexico. Yet basically, nothing much has happened in the markets. Oh, except that silver has risen 8.2%, gold 3.7%, the Dow is unchanged, and the US Dollar Index has failed in another rally.

The US DOLLAR INDEX fell again today, breaking its uptrend line and promising much lower prices below 83. It closed today at 84.567, down 0.626, a meaty move down. For years I've been begging y'all to shuck all dollar investments -- bank CDs, annuities, insurance policies, bonds, savings & checking accounts -- and put the proceeds into silver and gold. Keep your eyes on the long term and get out of dollars and into silver and gold.

STOCKS have languished over the past 12 days, churning back & forth between 7800 and 8200, burning up gas driving in circles. Worse yet, it's gas they couldn't afford to burn. Begins to make me suspect the rally will not reach as far as I have been expecting. Today's close at 8,186 might lead to a breakout tomorrow, but it must come tomorrow or else unfold as merely one more disappointment. I repeat my long held warning that stocks are headed below 6,000 Dow, and will lose even more value against silver & gold than against the dollar. Swap stocks for silver and gold.

New Mexico is a beautiful state. We saw Santa Fe, Taos, Abiquiu, Ghost Ranch, & Los Alamos. But wow! There's a lot of sand, too. New Mexico was great, but home is always better. Like every woman, every place has its own peculiar beauty. No place smells like Tennessee in the spring. Wild azaleas are blooming, & soon the honeysuckle will come on, but it's not the flowers that I love best. It's the damp smell of the secret places of the woods.

I'll send y'all a commentary tomorrow, but then I have to go to South Carolina for a wedding. I'll be back to work on 4 May.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, April 17, 2009

Next Week Will Tell the Silver and Gold Price Tale for Some Time to Come

Gold Price Close Today : $867.40
Gold Price Close April 3: $882.20
Change: -14.80 or -1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : $11.785
Silver Price Close April 3: $12.325
Change: -54.00 cents or -4.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 73.60
Gold Silver Ratio Close April 3: 71.58
Change: 2.02 or 2.8%

Dow Industrial: 8,155.62
Dow Close April 3: 8,083.38
Change: 72.240 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.896
US Dollar Close April 3: 85.626
Change: 0.270 or 0.3%

The GOLD PRICE seems determined to dance with its 200 day moving average (DMA, now 860.75), maybe it will drop as low at 850 - 800. Before the gold price climbs out of this correction it must close above 906, then 920. Be patient.


Looks now like the February high was the seasonal high for the first half of the year. If so, gold & silver prices will see range-bound trading from here until the seasonal June/July bottom.

On the weekly chart gold stands well above its 200 week MA (705.36) but is now at its 50 week MA (869.17). Other weekly indicators are equivocal to down.



When gold takes a beating, the SILVER PRICE gets worked over with an iron pipe. Since last Thursday Gold dropped 1.7% while silver dropped 4.4%.



The Gold/Silver ratio jumped 2.8%, to 73.60, and looks set to drive higher. Do not miss this opportunity to swap gold for silver.

The silver price could conceivably fall to 11.80 or even 11.00 and trade rangebound, 11.00 to 14.50, till the summer seasonal low. So far, under heavy attack silver has held 12.00. It might give on the next assault.

Next week will tell the gold & silver tale for some time to come, the next two months anyway. A strong showing next week means we have seen the worst, a weak showing will take both metals lower.

You will hear shallow commentators by the brigades singing the death of silver & gold, the resurgence of the US economy, the rebirth of the dollar, phoenix-like, from its next of mud. Believe their cobwebs at your own peril. Bear always in mind that markets never move straight up or down, but always in waves, fits, & starts.

The US DOLLAR INDEX hired a new PR agent this week. On favourable economic data (?Fewer plants closed & unemployment roseless than 10%?) the dollar has rallied up to the top of its resistance at 85.896. If the buck breaks through resistance at 86.2, it could rally to 89 before reality again sinks teeth into its carotid. Yet, the philosophical among us (who have learned patience watching the illegal, unconstitutional, wildly suicidal US monetary policy) remember that when a currency goes up, it also comes down. Next week we get bad data, and the dollar drops. Means nothing in the dollar's long march to Oblivion.

STOCKS had better hurry their rally along, as daily indicators are looking awfully high. Expects stocks to top not later than end-May in the range of 9,000 to 9,400.

Next week I will be away traveling with my wife & five of our grandsons in New Mexico. God willing, I'll return on 28 April. Y'all don't worry too much about markets. If you've already bought silver & gold, the trend is your friend. Just wait.

Y'all have a great weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, April 16, 2009

View Every Decline in Silver and Gold Prices as a Heaven-sent Opportunity to Buy More on the Cheap

Gold Price Close Today : 879.30
Change: -13.50 or -1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.250
Change: -54.5 cents or -4.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.78
Change: 2.002 or 2.9%

Dow Industrial: 8,125.43
Change: 95.81 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index: 85.14
Change: 0.19 or 0.2%

Stocks finally showed some energy today and began pulling away from 8000 resistance. Next resistance lurks at 8,400. Still on track for a rally to 9,000 to 9,400. Use this strength to sell any remaining stocks (other than precious metals stocks) and swap proceeds into silver or gold. Dow closed today up 95.81 at 8,125.43 while the S&P 500 rose 13.24 to 865.30.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is looking perky forming a flat-topped right triangle with a top just over 86. That might break out to the upside, and I'm seeing that for the first time. But given the dollar's fundamentals, it's like watching Phantom of the Opera. You know who's going to die in the end. No doubt.


The GOLD PRICE today dropped 13.50 to close on Comex at $879.30. That $890 level was a sharp and slippery edge. Since there's not much to hang on here, you have to expect lower prices, maybe the 200 day moving average at $861.10 or $850 support. The SILVER PRICE fell 54.5 cents to $12.25.

Dow in Gold Dollars made a new high for the move today, probably hinting that stocks have further to run and gold further to fall. No, I'm not sure what's driving silver and gold, other than the fullness of time. Yesterday I thought they had a good chance of leaving the 800s and 12s behind them. A rising dollar hurts them some, and stocks are pulling away interest, and the lizards are crawling out from under the rocks where they ran for cover, now that their leaders and gurus are assuring them things are getting better. Me, I'm continuing to buy silver and gold, because I am of the contrary opinion: things are not starting to get better, and they have not even begun to get as bad as they will. We are just stuck in the Sitzkrieg of this Great Depression. The war will start in earnest soon enough.

Y'all ought to view every decline in silver and gold as a heaven-sent opportunity to buy more on the cheap.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, April 14, 2009

If The Gold Price Climbs Above 906 and Silver Over 13.06, Don't Expect Any More Downside

Gold Price Close Today : 890.90
Change: -3.8 or -0.42%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.76
Change: 0.3 cents or 0%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.82
Change: -0.28 or -0.4%

Dow Industrial: 7,920.18
Change: -137.63

SILVER and GOLD PRICES rallied strongly yesterday, helped no doubt by dollar weakness, but they gave back a little today. Gold held on above 889, a strong support level.(closed down 3.80 at US$890.90). The silver price rallied strongly yesterday, too, but only gave up 0.3 cent today to close at 12.76.





I can't make up my mind yet whether silver and gold prices will make one last downward swoon before they finish this correction, or not. Downside they have made lows at 12.105 and 871.5, but if the correction has ended then they should not again visit levels that low. If the gold price climbs above 906 and silver over 13.06, don't expect any more downside.

Stocks today disappointed, deciding with blithe schizophrenia that the market no longer like financial stocks. The Dow dropped 137.63 to 7,920.18 and the S&P500 fell 17.23 to close at 841.50. This wild back and forth is characteristic of bear market rallies and their sudden shifts, as well as the market's completely unsettled mind. Rally is not over yet.


The Dow in Gold Dollars appears to have double topped just above G$189 (9.15 oz), which might signal an upward turnaround in gold.


The gold/silver ratio has also turned down, but not yet unequivocally.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, April 09, 2009

The Longer Silver and Gold Prices Hold This Position Without Further Declines, The Less Likely Those Declines Become

Gold Price Close Today : $882.20
Gold Price Close April 3: $895.60
Change: -13.40 or -1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.325
Silver Price Close April 3: $12.725
Change: -40.00 cents or -3.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.58
Gold Silver Ratio Close April 3:70.38
Change: 1.20 or 1.7%

Dow Industrial: 8,083.38
Dow Close April 3: 8,017.59
Change: 65.790 or 0.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.626
US Dollar Close April 3: 84.201
Change: 1.425 or 1.7%

The longer SILVER and GOLD PRICES hold this position without further declines, the less likely those declines become. I expect one more paroxysmal push down, a spike down, for the end, but we may not even see that. Demand is huge, and supply is thin still, as noted in the high premiums. Gold American Eagles are again available, trickling into the system with 2 week delays.




Gold today closed down 2.60 to US$882.20. Silver closed down a penny at $12.325 cents. Most bottom targets now are US$850 and $11.80. Keep on buying, and buy with both hands if it spikes down. You won't get much time.

Surprising no one, stocks completed their correction this week and climbed back above Dow 8,000 with a nearly 250 point push today. S&P500 did even better. Now stocks will push rapidly toward 9,000 - 9,400, but do NOT get sucked in by Wall Street cheerleaders' cries of "New Bull Market!" There's bull in that all right, but it ain't "market".

US DOLLAR INDEX got unexpected good news today, in the best monthly balance of trade report in nine years. Still showed a deficit, of course, but the Depression is forcing down imports, so the number was a bit better than the usual catastrophe. Expect dollar index's rally to cease, desist, dry up, and blow away about 86.20.


DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS continues to rise toward our target of G$200 (9.675 oz) to G$215.00 (10.401 oz). After that, stocks will resume their fall toward an eventual nadir below 6,000 and gold will rise again.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Worst Downside I Can See in the Gold Price is $850 - These Low Gold Prices Offer You a Rare Opportunity to Catch Gold "On Sale."

Gold Price Close Today : 884.80
Change: 2.60 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.335
Change: 10 cents or 0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.73
Change: -0.551 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial: 7,857.58
Change: 68.02 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.31
Change: 0.08 or 0.1%

My comments yesterday may have sounded a bit too pessimistic about metals, but I want y'all to understand how opaque the future really is, how volatile & confusing short term moves can be, and so how needful it is to view markets on a long term (primary trend) basis, with a good measure of fundamental analysis thrown in.

The GOLD PRICE rose today a big US$2.60 to a Comex close of US$884.80. With a range of $878 to $890, it was a quiet day. I still fear that gold's downside work has not been completely finished. Worst downside I can see is $850. These low prices offer you a rare opportunity to catch gold "on sale."


The SILVER PRICE rose 13 cents to $12.335 cents, not terribly enthusiastic. Looking at the chart, 12 cents obviously forms strong support. Silver will not be on the upswing again until it closes above $13.05 and gold closes above $890.

Keep on buying silver, and if it drops further, buy some more.

Keep your eyes on the horizon. Silver and Gold Prices are in a primary uptrend that will last another 5 - 10 years, dollar is in primary downtrend, as are stocks. Don't fight the trend. The trend's your friend.

STOCKS today piddled, but rose a few points. They remain in their rally mode, which will carry them on to 9,000 - 9,500. You'd better be selling them soon, unless you're holding on to them to use later as wallpaper.

THE US DOLLAR INDEX seems to have run out of steam today, up only 8 basis points to 85.31. Dollar is still targeting its 50 day moving average at 86.18. Looking at the dollar & the euro, one is hard pressed to choose which is the sorriest. Much as the dollar stinks, it remains sounder than the euro, which could fly apart on a moment's notice. What's the answer? Not the yen, which is sorrier than either of the other two, but the perpetual alternative currencies, silver and gold.

What in the world is going on with platinum and palladium? Platinum rose $22 today while palladium rose $8.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, April 07, 2009

We Can't Tell Yet Whether the Move in Silver and Gold Prices Has Ended or Not - Probably Not, So Brace for Lower Prices Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 882.20
Change: 10.70 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.205
Change: 10 cents or 0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 72.28
Change: 0.287 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial: 7,805.96
Change: -169.89 or -2.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.24
Change: 0.51 or 0.6%

Personally I've been staring at charts and sweating bullets, checking and re-checking my premises. Presently I am being bombarded with articles screaming that deflation is about to overwhelm the world. These people are confusing dropping prices (usually an effect of deflation) with a cause (deflation, a decrease in the money supply). In this case, the effect arises not from monetary deflation but from collapsing bubbles (housing, commodities, and stocks). Meanwhile, the money supply is still increasing ("inflation") and a huge further inflation will occur as government makes good on all the bailouts. Chance of real deflation? Same as my being chosen next Miss America.



Still, I do not like the look of the Gold/Silver ratio chart. That could be a falling wedge (which threatens an upside breakout), or it could be a flat-bottomed triangle (breaks out usually downside). Nerve racking. Also silver made a lower low last fall (at 880) but I think the financial panic last fall excuses that. I keep thinking and thinking, and just can't get to deflation, or to gold rising alone and leaving silver wholly behind. Oh, that might happen for a passing time (it did last fall), but not permanently. In bull markets, silver always outperforms gold: same drivers as gold driving a smaller market guarantees that.


Better interpretation is that silver is completing the C leg of an A-B-C correction, and bottom of this leg will remain the last low for years to come.

Today stocks continued their correction. The Dow dropped 169.89 to 7,805.96 and the SandP 500 fell 16.93 to 818.55. Bad news was blamed, but the time just isn't full yet. Stocks still have to digest gains from the bottom, then will rise again. Keep on selling them and swapping the proceeds into silver and gold as you have opportunity.

The US DOLLAR INDEX closed at 85.235, up 51.6 basis points, another big jump after yesterday's. Has anything changed? Bernanke gone on the wagon? Geithner grown up? Is somebody serious actually in charge? Nope. Same old dollar, same old outlook. Top of this rally is probably 86.17, the 50 DMA.

The GOLD PRICE bounced back $10.70 to a Comex close at US$882.20. The SILVER PRICE rose a dime to 12.205 cents. Yet today's action was probably just a bounce of yesterday's weakness, so we can't tell yet whether the move has ended or not. Probably not, so brace for lower prices tomorrow.

Remember: "A bull market always climbs a wall of worry." You're getting the worrying part with silver and gold prices right now. The bull always wants to shake off as many riders as possible.






Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, April 06, 2009

Nothing in this Silver and Gold Price Move Changes the Long Term Outlook

Gold Price Close Today : 871.50
Change: -24.10 or -2.7%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.105
Change: 62 cents or -4.9%

Gold Silver Ratio: 72.00
Change: 1.614 or 2.3%

Dow Industrial: 7,975.85
Change: -41.74 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 84.72
Change: 0.52 or 0.6%

Watching the Nice Government Men play with silver and gold prices the last few days has sent me back to re-examine basic strategy. What you've witnessed amounts to nothing more than their Pyrrhic victory forcing down the price for a few days when it is already weak. This temporary win does them no good long term, as the price will shortly pop back up. But they don't care about that, they only care about today. They are trying to contain gold's rise, since they know they can't beat it. So they fight it knowing they can't keep the gains under 15% a year. They had also been defending the $1,000 mark. A friend with good connections tells me they have probably thrown in the towel on that line and raised it to $1,200.00.

What, then, is our best long term strategy, since we know the NGM will continue depreciating the dollar? Simply to keep buying silver and gold as steadily and rapidly as possible. Yes, I would rather buy price declines, but if I miss those I don't get upset. After all, it's a bull market, and a rising tide raise all boats and erases our timing mistakes. Eventually they will lose control.

The GOLD PRICE dropped 24.10 today to 871.50, Significant is that it fell through 889 which had contained declines for so long. Therefore we must reckon with lower prices. Targets are the 200 day moving average, now at 861.87, or the 25 year resistance at US$850. Today's gold price low was 865. I would expect the fall to be sharp and short, lasting not longer than this week, but it's early to judge that.

The SILVER PRICE dropped 62 cents to $12.105 cents. Today's low was $12.07, and silver is already below the 200 DMA (now 12.78). Possible floors for this move are 12.00, 11.80, and possibly 11.00. Nothing in this move changes the long term outlook.

I don't know whether these declines will prove short and sharp, or whether they will last several months. If the February high was the seasonal spring high for the year, then silver and gold could fall into June or July. If February was not the seasonal high, then that will come in May. I haven't formed an opinion yet which outcome seems more likely.

Lower prices only make silver and gold more attractive. Keep buying every new decline. Or, you could trust your future, and your family's, to the Nice Government Men, because you know already they want what is best for you and they're there to help you.

The US Dollar index today rose 54.8 basis points to 84.724, which no doubt did not help silver and gold. Dollar is still a mess, and should see 70 before it sees 90, if it ever does again.

Stocks backpedalled for a touchback today, after the breakout through Dow 8,000 Friday. They will keep on rallying. Look for a top at 9,000 to 9,300. Swap stocks for silver and gold. This is your last chance.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, April 03, 2009

Take This as an Opportunity to Buy More Silver and Gold at Low Prices

Gold Price Close Today : $895.60
Gold Price Close 27th March: $923.20
Change: -27.60 or -3.0%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.725
Silver Price Close 27th March: $13.251
Change: -52.60 cents or -4.0%

Gold Silver Ratio: 70.38
Gold Silver Ratio Close 27th March: 69.67
Change: 0.71 or 1.0%

Dow Industrial: 8,017.59
Dow Close 27th March: 7,776.18
Change: 241.410 or 3.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 84.201
US Dollar Close 27th March: 85.140
Change: -0.939 or -1.1%

I'm mad enough to chew nails and spit iron filings. The sleazy internationalists and their running dogs in the US government (which pretty much includes everybody) has floated yet again that old ploy about selling IMF gold and helping the "poor countries" -- as if they were interested in the poor, except for stealing what little they have left.

The comrades at the Gang of 20 meeting mentioned the IMF gold sale as if it were already agreed upon, which it is not, and I predict as a weary, long time observer, never will be, mainly because it is the ONLY asset the IMF has. (And if the almighty US government keeps 78% of its foreign reserves in gold, then pray tell me how good the IMF's Special Drawing Rights will be without any gold at all behind them?) Every time since 1992 they have wanted to jawbone gold down, they have trotted out this old dog, which never would hunt to begin with.

But let us with steely eyes and ice-cold reason examine the much-touted sale of the IMF's 403 tonnes of gold. That would be 12,938,315 troy ounces. Wow, wow, wow, sounds like a lot, huh? That is, unless you happen to know that the DAILY turnover on the London Bullion Market Association in 2009 was 18,300,000 oz. per day. So how much trouble would the gold market have digesting the IMF's little dab of gold? None. Not a bit. Wouldn't even burp.

AND let's talk about stocks, and the rally that has so many eyes bugging out on stalks. Friends, this is merely a predictable counter-trend rally, and will peter out at 9,000 - 9,400. Ignore the song of Wall Street touts as Ulysses ignored the Siren's song. Sell stocks if you have them.

The Dow today closed up 39.51 at 8,017.59 and the SandP500 rose 8.11 to 842.49.

With the Dow rising and Gold falling, the Dow in Gold Dollars has been rising in a countertrend rally. From a low on 6 March 2009 at G$145.37 (7.032 oz) it has rallied to G$185.06 (8.952 oz). It's likely to rally to G$200 (9.675 oz) or G$215 (10.401 oz) before it fails. Holding gold at US$890, that yields a high on the Dow from 8,677.50 to 9,328.

The US DOLLAR INDEX dropped nearly 100 basis points this week to close at 84.201. The Obamaites are doing everything possible to make sure that the dollar revisits 79. Get out of any investment that promises to pay you dollars in the future. Clearly the Nice Government Men are doing their worst to keep the price of gold low, so nobody will notice that the dollar is sinking out of sight and take flight into gold. These tricks only work temporarily, like the Treasury's gold sales in the 1970s.

Take this as an opportunity to buy more silver and gold at low prices. If gold breaks US$888.00, then the next logical support is US$850. Next week will tell us how close we come to that.

I would not like to be the NGM tasked with keeping gold down, a job akin to holding a basketball under water. Such buying strength materializes around US$890, I don't know how they will do it. However, when you are unspeakably corrupt and have legions of corrupt bullion banks eager to act as your yellow lickspittle lackeys, I reckon you can get the job done.

If the silver price closes below 12.45, it could drop to 12.00 or 11.85. Use every dip in price to buy more. Don't be taken in by the shell game presently being played on the world. The victims will wake up soon enough.

Y'all have a great weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, April 02, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Bounced of the Levels That Have Held Rock Solid Thoughout This Correction and Bounced Up Strongly

Gold Price Close Today : 907.40
Change: -18.70 or -2.0%

Silver Price Close Today : $13.015
Change: 5 cents or 0.4

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.72
Change: -1.711 or -2.4%

Dow Industrial: 8,012.49
Change: 250.89 or 3.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 84.33
Change: -1.21 or -1.4%

If y'all want to understand what sort of piratical trickery has been taking place in the silver and gold markets for the past 15 years, read "Did the ECB save Comex from Gold Default?" by Avery Goodman.

But let us deal with today. The US Stock market rose not on news alone from the Gang of 20's announcement they are going to waste another $1 trillion through the IMF ("Enslaver of Nations"), but because the accounting standards board announced they would relax the mark to market rules on the banks, which will allow them to claim their trashy, worthless mortgage-backed securities really are assets. Who does this benefit? Not the banking "system", but the really big rotten banks which are already dead men walking. But then again, they entire bailout was for their benefit, nothing more than a raid on the Treasury to line their pockets.

What's the bottom line? Any excuse will work for a market that wants to rise, & stocks were already in a rally. In truth, stock bear market bottom is nowhere near yet (based on time and valuations), and economy still has multitudes and magnitudes of bad debt and bad investments to be wrung out. Don't break out the champagne just yet.

The Gang of 20's communiqué helped send up stocks but trashed gold. Terrible, on the face of it, but only for the careless and naïve, for the consumption of whom the whole trick was pulled. The GOLD PRICE dropped 18.760 to close on Comex at US$907.40, but get this: the SILVER PRICE actually rose. Silver's Comex close was up 5 cents at $13.015.

Today's lows were US$894.70 and $12.56. Now think about those levels. They are basically the same levels (ca. US$890 and 12.50) that have held rock solid throughout this correction. But more than that, silver and gold didn't merely sink down there and stick, but rather bounced up strongly, so strongly that silver in fact closed above 13.00.

Folks, do NOT get caught shorting silver. And if you're planning to buy, you'd better get after it, and "johnny quick smart" as my Australian sister-in-law says.

The currency market read the G-20's announcement as poison for the dollar, which tanked a huge 121 basis points. Ya'll say good-bye to the US dollar. It won't live long.

On this bright day in 1792 the US Congress passed the Coinage Act, which forever set the immutable monetary standard of the United States at 371.25 grains of fine silver, with gold coins to be adjusted in weight periodically as the market ratio changed. They even did that in 1837 without cheating a single soul.

On this black day in 1917 President Woodrow Wilson asked congress to declare war against Germany so that we could "make the world safe for democracy." The US has been meddling in other people's business ever since.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, April 01, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Continue Confused

Gold Price Close Today : 926.10
Change: 3.50 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : $12.965
Change: -1 cents or -0.1

Gold Silver Ratio: 71.43
Change: 0.325 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial: 7,713.41
Change: 104.49 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 85.54
Change: -0.05 or -0.1%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES continue confused. The gold price rose $3.50 to US$926.10 while the silver price dropped one cent to $12.965. I would feel better seeing gold over $927.00 and above that resistance, so that I could feel it was out of the woods fully.

If you believe it was an accident that the Euro Central Bank announced today that it had sold 35.5 tonnes of gold and the Gang of 20 meeting began in London today, you are the natural prey of people who sell sky-hooks and the Brooklyn Bridge. TV news early this morning showed mobs outside huge Royal Bank of Scotland building in London, throwing bricks through the windows. Wow, it's like old times in the Anglo Saxon world, except that Americans have grown so effete that they no longer riot when financially raped. Rather, they elect Democrats to continue the raping while they gild it with good intentions.

No good can come of the Gang of 20 meeting, but lots of volatility can hit markets, both before and after. Expect no big changes and no big effects. Their glacial progress always moves toward what hurts us, anyway: globalization, centralization, dehumanization. Who needs 'em?

Friends, y'all had better watch out because there are crooks out there without conscience or number. Yesterday a customer called us to report that a firm with a big Internet presence was offering to sell her Elizabeth sovereigns for $390.00 each. At the same hour we were selling them for $242.00 each. Y'all had better check carefully every offer made to you. Divide cost by content to determine price per ounce.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

The-MoneyChanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.