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Friday, May 29, 2009

If the Gold Price Breaks $1,000 it Might Reach $1,200 Before it Stalls

Gold Price Close Today : 978.80
Gold Price Close May 22: 958.50
Change: 20.30 or 2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.60
Gold Price Close May 22: 14.683
Change: 91.70 cents or 6.2%

Gold Silver Ratio : 62.74
Gold Silver Ratio May 22: 65.28
Change: -2.54 or -3.9%

Dow Industrial: 8,500.33
Dow May 22: 8,277.32
Change: 223.010 or 2.7%

US Dollar Index: 79.317
US Dollar May 22: 80.041
Change: -0.724 or -0.9%





Last week I forecast that gold would break $1,000 this week. I was a mite previous, but gold still lit up the sky -- almost as much as silver.

STOCKS remain range--bound between Dow 8,600 and 8,200. No enthusiasm, no direction, just running out of steam and grinding to a halt. Then comes the drop.

US DOLLAR INDEX has been fueling the Silver and Gold Price rally. After falling 300 basis points last week, it fell a full 120 bps today to 79.317. Hard to conceive it won't go lower, although this leg of the decline ought to have nearly ended. 78 is about the limit of it.



The gold price is approaching its last (February) high at $1,000, and the 2008 high. Today it jumped nearly $20, and hit US$980.17, although the Comex close was US$978.80. Other indicators show gold could easily move higher. RSI is not yet quite overbought, and the MACD has much further to run before topping.

Buyers are pouring in. If the Gold Price breaks through US$1,000 it might reach $1,200 before it stalls -- but first it must pierce $1,000.00.



On the weekly chart silver stands well above its 50 DMA (12.95) and 200 DMA (12.71). It's also aboe the march reaction high. Last fall the big drop began at 16.80, but only after pounding support at 16.00 for a while. Therefore look for 16.00 as the first resistance. Above that the whole area between 17.00 and 18.00 is clogged.

You know a market has risen when you have to move the scale on your chart, and that's where we find silver. The RSI is entering overbought territory, but the MACD can stand to rise higher. Remember, "oversold" can drag on for a long time.

Big question is, can silver and gold price rally against the average seasonal pattern. They have already answered that "YES!", but can they continue next week? If they open higher Monday, gold will hit $1,000 before week end, and probably break through.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped a gigantic 0.72 today, and will fall further next week. After all, it was a good idea to favour silver when the ratio was so high. (Every now and then I have to pat myself on the back. Sorry.) The silver price rose three times as fast as the gold price this week.

It's not clear to me what's driving metals up and the dollar down behind the curtains, but something big is happening. We had the big metals' premiums drops back at end-April. That was very odd, as if somebody dumped large inventory on the retail market. Now the US bond market is beginning to reflect investor distrust in the dollar. In the world of secretive governments we live in, who knows what else is falling apart? Of this much I am certain: the depression is years from its end, the dollar's depreciation has barely begun, and silver and gold prices as yet are only hinting at their eventual highs.

Small fractional gold coins have been so scarce on the market that I've taken to buying what I can get when I can get it. I took the opportunity to buy 290 French TEN francs. This is a coin we almost never see, and they usually cost much more than the larger, common 20 francs, but I got these at a much better rate, about an 11% premium over their 0.0934 troy ounce gold content. All were minted before 1915, most are the Rooster type but some Louis Napoleon. If you'd like to buy some at $101 each, here's how:

Send an e-mail to with "Ten Francs" in the subject line. E-mail must contain (1) your name, address, and phone number and (2) Number of coins you want to buy. Add $30 shipping to each order. (3) Please mention goldprice.org in your email. These are sold on a first-come, first-served basis: first e-mails to arrive win. If you win an order, we will send you a trade confirmation & you'll need to send payment in 2 days. Sorry, no credit cards accepted and minimum order is $1,500.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, May 28, 2009

The Gold Price Rally is ON

Gold Price Close Today : 961.50
Change: 8.20 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.150
Change: 29.4 cents or 2.0%

Gold Silver Ratio: 63.47
Change: -0.704 or -1.1%

Dow Industrial: 8,368.92
Change: 68.90 or 0.8%

US Dollar Index: 80.51
Change: 0.17 or 0.2%

Today's gold and silver price action smashed the theories of those who believe silver and gold must move in lock step opposite to the US dollar. The US DOLLAR INDEX closed up 17.4 basis points at 80.506, but gold and silver blasted higher.



The gold price reached 964.98 at the high, and by Comex closing was at US$961.50, up 8.20 today and up 24.50 in the last week. The close above 958.3 takes gold above its March correction high and sets its sights on US$1,000. (Wring my neck! I've been looking at the wrong chart, & giving y'all the intraday high as the breakout point, rather than the close.)



The silver price hit a 15.27 high today. At Comex close it was 15.15, up 29.4 cents today and up 88 cents in the last week. Next target is 16.00.

I have to say, The Rally is ON. Gold has closed above its March correction low (off the February high) & silver has closed above its February high at 14.4880. It will hit 16.00 or higher before this rally ends.



ADD to that confirmation from the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which has dropped nearly two huge points in the last two days, to close today at 63.47. Next stop? A jiggle at 62, then 57:1, maybe 53.5. A lot lower.

One reader asked why I would recommend buying the breakout. When a market trades in a range, you don't want to buy near the top of the range because it is likely to trade to the range top and then fall back. It is safer, then, to (1)wait to buy near the range bottom, or (2) buy the breakout above the range. Generally when a market breaks out of a trading range (up or down) it will make a large move.

But in a bull market (primary up trend), the most fundamental rule is to get long and stay long. The rising market will eventually cover up even your worst timing mistakes.

STOCKS are fiddling. The Dow closed up 68.9 today at 8,368.92. S&P 500 managed to climb above 900 to 903.52 (up 10.49). No direction and no enthusiasm. Sell 'em if you got 'em.

US DOLLAR INDEX might manage to rally to 82, where it fell off. Doesn't matter really, though, because the long term trend is down, down, down.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, May 27, 2009

If the Gold Price Can't Break Through US$965 in the Next Day or Two it will Fall Back

Gold Price Close Today : 953.30
Change: 0 or 0%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.856
Change: 26.5 cents or 1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 64.17
Change: -1.165 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 8,300.02
Change: -173.47 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.80
Change: 0.71 or 0.9%

Mmmmmm. . . Strange day.

The gold price closed on the Comex (1:30 EST) unchanged on the day at US$953.30, but 5 hours later is about $5.00 lower. Double closes leave me antsy, since they often (not always) lead to reversals.



What argues against the gold price reversing? The silver price, that climbed 26.5 cents today to 14.8560 at Comex close, and knocked on the door of fifteen bucks much of the day.



The metals' performance today becomes more respectable when you learn that the US $ Index rose a hefty 70.5 basis points to 80.80. Short term my mind is changing about the dollar, moving to neutral rather than bearish. A small rally is possible here before yet another BIG plunge downside.

The Dow today held on to a suspicious 8,300.02 while the S&P500 fell below 900, a bad blow to morale. Back and forth, back and forth burns up a market's ammunition (buying power) -- ammo stocks can ill afford to lose. No future here for a long time yet. Maybe your grandchildren will want to buy stocks.

As good as gold and silver price look here, brace yourself for a fall. If gold can't break through US$965 in the next day or so, it will fall back. If it breaks out over 965 and silver confirms with a higher close, buy both. If they fall back, wait a few days to see where it will settle.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, May 26, 2009

965 is Now Resistance for the Gold Price and Must be Broken

Gold Price Close Today : 953.30
Change: -5.60 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.591
Change: -9.5 cents or -0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.33
Change: 0.041 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 8,465.29
Change: 187.97 or 2.3%

US Dollar Index: 80.11
Change: 0.08 or 0.1%

One of the tactics of the Nice Government Men (I am guessing) is holding a particular line. Ponder: When the gold price was rising from 400, they held on at 420 a long time, defending that point. Then when that gave way, it was $450, then $500, and they threw in the towel on that and it was the next level up.

I suspect we are watching them do that with the US DOLLAR INDEX at the 80 level. It sinks, and wants to sink, beneath the surface of 80 on toward oblivion and sleep, but somebody keeps digging out the life jackets and raising it above 80. Today it closed up a MASSIVE 8.3 basis points to 80.107. Sniff!? Sniff? What's that smell? Is that three day old mackeral? Well, it's something fishy anyway. (Streaming USD Index is now available on the live gold price charts).

STOCKS today heaved themselves up and climbed almost to last week's highs. Wonder who is buying them? Hope it's not y'all.

The GOLD PRICE Fell back 5.60 today to close on Comex at 953.30, and as I write this 4 hours after Comex close, it still stands at 953.70. The silver price today dropped 9.5 cents to 14.591 cents, but as I write has climbed to 14.615.

Y'all notice this week is following the pattern of last, with a strong close on Friday followed by a big hit on the first trading day of the new week? Could be attributed to floor traders returning from a long weekend and putting on short trades, or could be the NGC coming back from their long weekend.

Either way, gold's problem lies at 965.00, the high after the February peak. This is now the resistance that must be broken. Support lies at 941.50. Gold has cleanly broken out thru its downtrend line, but silver has merely reached its downtrend line. Both remain above 50 and 200 day moving averages. The proverb says, "A bull market always climbs a wall of worry." We're climbing now. I'm biting my nails, but my money is on a new silver and gold uptrend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, May 22, 2009

This Week Silver and Gold Prices Staged Dazzling Breakouts

Gold Price Close Today : 958.50
Gold Price Close May 15th: 930.90
Change: 27.60 or 3.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.683
Silver Price Close May 15th: 13.99
Change: 69.30 cents or 5.0%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.28
Gold Silver Ratio Close May 15th: 66.54
Change: -1.26 or -1.9%

Dow Industrial: 8,277.32
Dow Close May 15th: 8,268.64
Change: 8.680 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index: 80.041
US Dollar Index 15th of May: 82.916
Change: -2.875 or -3.5%

After all the niggling and hemming and hawing is done, fact remains that this week silver and gold prices staged dazzling breakouts, while the US dollar index broke down bleeding.

Monday the US DOLLAR INDEX was at 82.916 today it closed at 80.041, down nearly three hundred basis points, a huge move. Today it traded much of the day below 80, as low as 79.805. No doubt here that the Dollar Index is hastening toward 78, or lower, but 78 at a minimum.

Nor has the US Dollar Index hurt gold or silver. The gold price rose US$27.60 this week to close the week at US$958.50. This means more than the simple numbers. 928-930 was strong resistance, and above that was more resistance at 938-941.5. The gold price has steadily conquered those barriers and climbed nearly to its March correction high at 965.

What can await the gold price but another attack on US$1,000? As I oft repeat, the more times a market attacks a support or resistance level, the greater the odds it will break through. This rally isn't synchronized to the average seasonal pattern, but don't fight the market. It's happening. Little question that the disintegrating dollar is helping gold, but in the past couple of days demand has returned to the market, retail demand.

The SILVER PRICE rose 5% this week, 69.3 cents, to crown the week at 14.683. This beats the February 14.58 high, and puts the silver price into new high ground. Next goal and next resistance is 16.00.

Note carefully how the GOLD/SILVER RATIO has fallen. This is precisely what needs to accompany a rally in silver and gold. Next stop 54.50.

Note also that the Dow in Gold Dollars has fallen out of its trading range to G$178.52 (8.636 ounces), so the downtrend has probably resumed in stocks against gold.

STOCKS continue to wallow in the Slough of Despond, unable to climb above 8,600. They are also running out of time. Give them another two weeks, and if the Dow hasn't climbed over 9,000, get rid of the rest of your stocks (assuming you still have any, since I've been hollering for y'all to sell them since 2001).

NEXT WEEK gold and silver prices ought to improve their gains. The gold price should take no more than three days -- Okay, add one day for a correction -- to reach $1,000, where the Nice Government Men will probably wake up and try to hammer it. It's just a hunch, but I think this time the gold price will finally pierce US$1,000. Once it does, you'll never see it under $1,000 again. I am buying this breakout in both gold and silver.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, May 21, 2009

The Gold Price Ought to Make a Quick Move Thorough 965, Then Run For $1,000

Gold Price Close Today : 950.80
Change: 13.80 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.435
Change: 16.5 cents or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.87
Change: 0.205 or 0.3%

Dow Industrial: 8,254.78
Change: -167.26 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.59
Change: -0.60 or -0.7%

Almost all equivocation and doubt was removed from the metals market today -- almost all.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, once it broke 82, has dropped 237 basis points in the last two days, closing today at 80.549. I told y'all once it broke 82 it would drop fast. Logical next stopping point and support is 78.

Who benefits from the falling dollar except silver and gold prices? The gold price rose 13.80 today, clearing the 938-941.50 resistance, and leaping half way to the next, and key, resistance at 965. It closed at 950.80, but right now is trading about 954. The gold price ought to make a quick move thorough 965, then run for $1,000.00. A $50 move is nothing for the gold price when it gets steamed up.

Silver made a clean breakout, but remember its last high was 14.58. In the aftermarket it's trading at 14.53. Rose today 16.5 cents to close at 14.43.50, so it rose about 10 cents after the Comex closed.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, May 19, 2009

This is the Third Time the Gold Price has Knocked on the 928-930 Door

Gold Price Close Today : 926.30
Change: 5.00 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.110
Change: 30 cents or 2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.65
Change: -1.064 or -1.6%

Dow Industrial: 8,474.85
Change: -29.23 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index: 82.06
Change: -0.48 or -0.6%

Just about the time you start believing you understand markets, they pull something wholly unpredictable.

Yesterday silver and gold prices fell away from the very top of their trading range ($930 & 14.20) to the first support level beneath those, 920 and 13.80. When a market weakens like that, you expect at least a day's follow-through, but today silver and gold prices shot up. The gold price traded as high as 929.15, the silver price up to 14.27, and both closed up. Silver rose 30 cents to 14.11 while gold climbed $5 to close at US$926.30. Perhaps it is a sucker rally. Then again, perhaps yesterday (Monday) the bears all came in and established their short positions for the week, forcing metals down. When today dawned without more bears, the buying pressure drove the price up.

Never mind, we are left in the same conundrum that held us last week: both metals are trading at the top of a trading range. That implies that you must wait to buy until it falls, or buy when it breaks out through the resistance at the top of the trading range.

Let's add a mystery to the riddle. The more times a market approaches a support or resistance area, the more likely it will break through. This is the third time the gold price has knocked on the 928-930 door.

There's something we're not seeing. Retail activity is weak, yet metals keep on climbing. The buying isn't coming from the public -- but from where then?

STOCKS today tread -- trod -- treaded water, giving up only 30 points of yesterday's rise. Dow dropped 29.23 to 8,474.85 and S&P 500 1.58 to 908.13. They'll move higher still and get a boost when they cross 8,600.

Poor Nice Government Men! The US DOLLAR must be giving them fits. It fell nearly 50 points again today to close just above 82, at 82.064. When it falls through 82, the hyenas and jackals will all jump on, taking it much further. Standing below the 200 DMA, it only needs a tiny push to fall off the ledge.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, May 18, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Broke Today, Falling Back From the Top of their Established Trading Channels $14.50 and $928

Gold Price Close Today : 921.30
Change: -6.70 or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.810
Change: 21 cents or -1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio: 66.71
Change: 0.521 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial: 8,504.08
Change: 235.44 or 2.8%

US Dollar Index: 82.92
Change: 0.53 or 0.6%

Silver and Gold Prices broke today, falling back from the top of their established trading channels ($14.50 and $928). Oddly, they only fell to the next support, the gold price closing at $921.30 (down $6.70) and the silver price at $13.81 (down 21 cents). That makes this look like it will be a mild break. Too early to tell whether this will last only a couple of days, or go down further for longer. Upside gold needs to pierce $930 and silver $14.50.

Both silver and gold remain above their 50 day moving averages, a good sign.

This is a short term move. Remember that. Long term silver and gold are headed so much higher than if I told you what I expect to see in gold and silver, y'all would call me a lunatic.

US DOLLAR INDEX sank 47.7 basis points to 82.547. These 50+ point up and down moves are a mite volatile. Before too long the DX will break down through 82.

In stocks the DOW lept 234.44 to 8,504.08. That's still short of the 8,600 that constitutes an upside breakout. S&P closed up 26.83 at 909.71. Y'all should be watching, itching for your chance to sell any remaining stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, May 15, 2009

The Gold Price Shot Thru the Major Resistance at US$920

Gold Price Close Today : 930.9
Gold Price Close 8th of May: 914.6
Change: 1.8% or 16.30

Silver Price Close Today : 13.99
Silver Price Close 8th of May: 13.935
Change: 5.50 cents or 0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 66.54
Gold Silver Ratio 8th of May: 65.63
Change: 0.91 or 1.4%

Dow Industrial: 8,268.64
Dow 8th of May: 8,480.65
Change: -212.010 or -2.5%

US Dollar Index: 82.916
US Dollar Index 8th of May: 82.640
Change: 0.276 or 0.3%

Momentum has disappeared, markets are wallowing without resolution. Is anybody watching market any more?

STOCKS have taken a real beating. The narrower blue chip Dow lost only 2.5% ("only" 2.5%) while the broader S&P500 lost five percent. Indicators all feel toppy, not to mention the "I'm rolling over before I fall off the bed" look of the chart. Will the Dow even reach its 200 DMA before its "rally" dies? Could it make it to 8,920? Looks more doubtful daily.

The US DOLLAR INDEX suffered its "dolours" this week. Ah, yes, it looks like a basically flat week, as long as you leave out that 100+basis point drop last Friday, and the fall through 83. This is just torture, watching it wallow back and forth, knowing
the end is foregone: much lower dollar prices.

Since April the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (the Dow Jones Industrial Average measured in dollars of gold, each equalling 0.048375 troy ounce) has made a double top at G$194.935
(9.43 troy ounces), and has turned downward again, closing today at G$183.62 (8.882 oz). Long term target here is the Dow at less than $41.344 (two oz), and you will see it.

SILVER and GOLD markets are behaving so strangely that it is beginning to look like the Nice Government Men have been active again. Usually when a market breaks through
resistance (or support), it jumps ahead like a paper wad out of a rubber band. The pent up strength pushing it up is at last loosed, and shoots ahead. If the market approaches a resistance area and stays a couple of days without penetrating, usually it falls back.

Not the silver and gold markets, not this week. The Gold Price shot thru the major resistance at US$920, but instead of shooting ahead or falling back, it has edged up a couple of bucks a day all week. Odd. Add to that silver's perverse performance, dancing around 14.00 all week, as high as 14.20 and as low as 13.80.

More mystery is added. The premiums on physical silver and gold last week seemed to say, "Oh, well, let's fall back to normal." Then they did it all in three days, after acting abnormally for 8 months (since September last), dropped to where they were a year ago. But this makes no sense, because nothing happened in the price movement to justify such changes. It simply doesn't add up. And although the public is not buying (I keep checking the phone to see if it's been disconnected), somebody big is buying, on balance, because the gold price rises two bucks or more every day.

So what do we know when things don't make sense? The government is probably behind it somewhere. For now things appear to have simmered down and resumed an even keel Well, wait -- just wait. Silver and gold stand a good chance of another run at $1,000 next week, but even if they don't, they will later this year, and will puncture $1,000 and leave it on the side of the road like a cast-off innertube.

I'm running out of metaphors, short of similes, and slap out of alliterations, so I'd better close. Keep on buying silver and gold. If the gold price breaks out above $930 and holds one day, count that a breakout and buy. If it falls below 889, give it 3 or so days to settle, then buy. Time your silver purchases off gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, May 14, 2009

The Gold Price Rose Today $2.50 to Close Right On Resistance at US$928

Gold Price Close Today : 928.00
Change: 2.50 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.020
Change: 2 cents or 0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 66.19
Change: 0.084 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 8,331.32
Change: 46.43 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 82.30
Change: -0.27 or -0.3%

When a market goes flat, it just goes flat, and there's nothing much to say about it until it moves up or down. Big mystery is, is it flat because it has run out of steam, or is the market under tremendous pressure from below and above, pressure which for the nonce is equally balanced.

If that latter is the case, then the break out -- either way -- will be huge.

US DOLLAR INDEX sank today as much as it had risen the day before -- not a harbinger of great things to come. It fell 27.1 basis points to 82.295.

STOCKS (probably thanks to the good offices of the Nice Government Men) rose a massive 46.43 points today to close the down at 8,331.32. S&P500 rose 9.15 to 893.07. The air begins to smell of death.

The GOLD PRICE rose today $2.50 to close right on resistance at US$928. These "up two bucks a day" closes only tell us that somebody is buying gold. Why point that out? Because all the blackshirts in the pits, commercials and professional traders, take no long term position. They only play the greatest odds, and reverse position when proven wrong. Anybody looking at a chart sees big resistance at 920, then at 928, so for those folks it would make sense to sell, and I'm sure sell they have.

Taking that into account, gold's performance of the past week earns considerably more respect. The RSI and MACD indicators say that there is much more room upside possible.

SILVER, honey, why do you work my nerves this way? I would have preferred silver stayed cleanly above 1400, instead of dancing around it. But silver is always the more volatile of the two metals, always more changeable. The great hurdle and target remains 14.50. Today silver rose two cents to 1402 cents.

If silver and gold can hold on tomorrow, remaining at roughly these levels, then next week should see breakout and rally. Otherwise, both will fall back down into the trading channel for more work building a base.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, May 13, 2009

The Gold Price Clearly is Trying to Fight its Way Through $928, but is Trudging Through Deep Mud

Gold Price Close Today : 925.50
Change: 2.00 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.195
Change: -19.5 cents or -1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.20
Change: 1.023 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 8,284.89
Change: -184.22 or -2.2%

US Dollar Index: 82.57
Change: 0.27 or 0.3%

Confusion reigned in the metals markets today: platinum and palladium prices dropped, the silver price dropped, and the gold price rose. Gold edged up US$2.00 to US$925.50 but silver fell 19.5 cents to $14.00.

The Gold Price clearly is trying to fight its way through $928, but is trudging through deep mud. Silver closed at $14.00, holding that level at least. Both metals are at the top of their trading range. If they can't break through to higher ground now, they will fall back toward the bottom of the range. That's why $928 and $14.50 are so important.

Most every dealer I talk to reports very light business. Gold and Silver have traded back and forth over this region so often that they have eaten up people who are willing to buy or sell at these levels. Therefore they have to either drop or breakout upside before the business picks up again.

Stocks took another smack in the jaw today. The Dow dropped 106.41 to 8,362.70 and the S&P500 dropped 11.4 to 896.95. Dow may be beginning to roll over.

US DOLLAR INDEX chart looks terrible -- sick, and liable to get sicker. It closed up today, 26.7 basis points, to 82.573.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Could Get a Short, Sharp Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 923.50
Change: 10.50 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.195
Change: 30.5 cents or 2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.06
Change: -0.673 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial: 8,477.87
Change: 59.10 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index: 82.30
Change: -0.55 or -0.7%

SILVER & GOLD PRICES
broke through resistance today, but only barely. The Gold Price closed up $10.50, and over $920 to be sure, but only at $923.50. Equivocal, somewhat. The Silver Price broke through $14.00, rising 30-1/2 to $14.195 cents. Both these are peaks slightly higher than the last time metals visited these points. Tomorrow silver and gold must advance and close higher, or fall back. No equivocal performance will do.

What's curious about today is that the Nice Government Men either passed up a chance to smack silver and gold when they were at vulnerable resistance, or they smacked and it had no effect. It appears the latter explanation holds, which means we could get a short, sharp rally in metals.

The US DOLLAR INDEX got invited to the woodshed today and took a severe beating. It fell 54.6 basis points to 82.295. Dollar can fall to 78 before it stops. If it falls through 78, look for 70. But the fainting dollar can only help silver and gold prices, as it did today.

STOCKS were confused today -- some indices rose, others fell. Confused markets don't go anywhere. After a day or so of confusion, the Dow ought to start moving up again. Start getting out of any stocks you have left. Sell them on a scale up basis. By the time the Dow hits 9,000 - 9,400, you must have sold all of them.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, May 11, 2009

If Markets Break Down, the Gold Price Could Drop to 890 and the Silver Price to 12.50

Gold Price Close Today : 913.00
Change: -1.40 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.890
Change: -4.5 cents or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.73
Change: 0.112 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial: 8,418.77
Change: -155.88 or -1.8%

US Dollar Index: 82.78
Change: 0.25 or 0.3%

Both silver and gold are acting strangely. Gold has fought hard to break through 920, without success. Yet instead of falling back and fading, it just keeps knocking on that 920 door.


Silver's behaving the same at 14.00. Other indicators point higher still.


So there's a fight going on, and it's still hard to tell which way it will turn out. Metals have not quite enough steam to break through, but enough to stay in place and take a slugging. That points to strength under the market, but where is it? All the retail and wholesale dealers I talk to are complaining that business has slowed. Never mind -- somebody is buying somewhere, otherwise both markets wouldn't be holding steady.

If markets break down, the gold price could drop to 890 and the silver price to 12.50, but if they break out, Oh, my! Hello, $1,000 gold and $18 silver.

As a few weeks ago stocks were stuck under 8,200, now they are stuck under 8,600. The whole picture is not too inspiring. The Dow will probably reach its 200 day moving average (DMA, now 8,981), push a little further, then quit. Clearly, legions and more legions of sellers greet every new high with -- more selling.

On Friday the US DOLLAR INDEX took a 100+ basis point dive. Owch! It now stands below its 200 DMA (82.95), precisely where it belongs to be in a bear market. The dollars rally has definitely been finished, and it has also broken its previous low (82.63). If the buck doesn't stop here and turn around, it will revisit 77.7 or lower.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, May 07, 2009

If the Gold Price Closes Above 920 it Will Run Long and Hard

Gold Price Close Today : 915.00
Change: 4.50 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.012
Change: 32 cents or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.30
Change: -1.198 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 8,409.85
Change: -102.43 or -1.2%

US Dollar Index: 83.85
Change: -0.13 or -0.2%

The GOLD PRICE climbed another US$4.50 today and closed at US$915. This is good, this is strong, this is upward, but this is not yet a close above $920, which is needed to confirm what silver did today.

The SILVER PRICE rose 32 cents to close on the Comex at 14.012. I like this. It's just what silver needed, but no one seems to be paying attention. No headlines appear touting "Silver the Invincible." I like that even better.

In the market after the Comex close at 12:30 Central Daylight Time both metals trended down. Right now they stand at 910.40 and 13.895. That's okay, really, as long as the gold price holds above 906 and the silver price above 13.80. However, it shows that even veteran traders don't quite trust this rise, mainly because they've seen the gold price beaten back at 920 before. Thus a close above that mark will make believers out of them, and they will reverse position.

If I were the Nice Government Men tomorrow would be about the day I would smack the gold market hard, while doubt rages around the 920.00 hurdle. If they fail to contain gold and it does close above 920.00, twill run long and hard. Notice closely that the GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped again today, a sign that augurs well for this rally.

The US DOLLAR INDEX continued to slide today, falling 0.132 at 83.845. Lo! How are the mighty fallen! and will fall further. STOCKS today took a breather. The Dow dropped 102.43 to 8,409.85 and the S&P shaved off 12.14 to land at 907.39. Still rallying, still destined to top around 9,000 - 9,400, I'd say.

I haven't mentioned it in a while, but if y'all have been watching the Dow in Gold Dollars lately you've noticed that it couldn't get thru or even near G$200.00 (9.675 troy ounces). Today the DiG$ dropped to G$190.00 (9.191 ounces). Rally has probably ended there, and gold will now begin to outperform stocks again.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, May 06, 2009

The Gold Price is Creeping and the Silver Price is Leaping Up

Gold Price Close Today : 910.50
Change: 6.80 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.692
Change: 29 cents or 2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 66.50
Change: -0.932 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial: 8,466.88
Change: 56.23 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index: 83.87
Change: -0.29 or -0.3%

The riddle continues as silver keeps on rising while the premium on US 90% silver coin keeps on falling. Maybe some big dealer trying to liquidate a big position in 90% coin?

STOCKS today rose 56.23 points to take the Dow to 8,467. The S&P500 climbed 9.76 to 913.55. This is painful to watch for anyone who understands that the primary trend is down, and this can only be at best a bear market rally. Look to sell any remaining stocks at 9000, if it gets that high.

The US DOLLAR INDEX swooned again today 28.6 basis points to 83.871. Why? Oh, I could peck around with reasons pulled from the news of the day, but the real truth is that the US dollar is trash, and the whole world knows it, and knows that Bernanke and his co-conspirators have ruined the buck with inflation, although as yet prices haven't blown the whistle. Just wait, they will. Sell all assets that promise to pay you dollars in the future, since dollars tomorrow will be worth less than dollars today. Sell insurance, annuities, CDs, bonds, bank accounts, anything that promises to pay dollars in the future.

I'm beginning to suspect that the wide market is not noticing how gold is creeping (and silver leaping) up. Gold rose another 6.80 today and closed at 910.50. Silver jumped another 29 cents to 13.692. Is anybody watching?

The SILVER PRICE stands above both its 200 Day Moving Average (DMA, now 12.60) and its 50 DMA (13.08). More important, it has clearly broken through the descending downtrend line.

Tomorrow silver needs to consolidate its gains by closing over 14.00 (13.80 minimum), then speedily moving above 14.60. Once above that barrier, silver will set its eyes on $21.00.

The GOLD PRICE also stands above its 200 DMA (856.79) but not quite above its 50 DMA (911.18 against today's close at 910.50). It must lose above 918.50, then speedily gain ground. Ultimately gold must pass 967, the March intraday high, to set up for another attack on $1,000.00.



Meanwhile the GOLD/SILVER RATIO has broken down (which we want!) through support at 67, the best news we've seen in a long time.





Where are we? Silver and gold prices must confirm a rally by BOTH closing above 13.80 and 918.50. Only when BOTH have closed above those marks can we talk about a rally, although it appears we are looking at one being born right now.

Next, both metals ought to leap out of the gate and speedily gain ground after that confirming close. Meanwhile, the ratio ought to steadil drop.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, May 05, 2009

Premiums Dropping on Gold and Silver

Gold Price Close Today : 903.70
Change: 2.10 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.402
Change: 30.9 cents or 2.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 67.43
Change: -1.431 or -2.1%

Dow Industrial: 8,410.65
Change: -16.09 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 84.08
Change: 0.39 or 0.5%

When I left on 30 April gold was at US$890.70, silver at $12.305, the gold/silver ratio at 72.39, & the US dollar index at 84.78. Today, two business days later, gold stands at 903.70 (up US$13), silver at 1340.2 (up 110 cents), the ratio at 67.43, and the US dollar index at 84.08, up from yesterday's 83.69.

What in the world is going on? More than this, the Dow has jumped from 8,168 to 8,426 while premiums on physical gold and silver are plunging. What gives?

Easiest first: stocks were stymied by 8,200 resistance, and once they pierced that veil they were bound to jump. Time is running out on the stock rally, so they better make hay while their artificial sun shines. Top of the rally is probably not much higher than 9,000 Dow. You ought to be using this rally to sell and flee any remaining stock positions.

What puzzles me most are the plunging premiums. The buy side of 90% silver coin has dropped from 140 cents an ounce over spot to 40 cents an ounce over spot, in two days while silver has risen 110 cents. Normally I watch that premium because it grows at bottoms and shrinks at tops. Since September, though, it's been hard to tell what it's saying (other than "Thousands are rushing into silver at any price") because it has been uniformly high, from 35% to 20% over silver.

The sudden drop might have several causes. First, silver and gold dealers (with all due respect) tend to react like scared sheep. When somebody lowers his bid, they all panic and run the other way. That may be driving the premium drop. Or, their fear might have no more complicated explanation than a long wait for silver to rise, and once it topped 13, all those waiting sellers crawled out and sold. Finally, it might say that silver is about to drop, but it would be the first time in the 20 years I've been watching it that it behaved that way.

Best of all, the premium drop brings US 90% coin down to the same price per ounce as one troy ounce silver rounds, which makes me leap for joy, since 90% coin is so much more divisible. Another force suppressing premiums may be the US mint's increased deliveries of gold and silver American Eagles. The gold Eagles have dropped to $38 over spot at wholesale, and the silver Eagles dropped from $3.75 over to $2.50 over in one move. That has pressured premiums across the board.

Dropping premiums can mean that supply is increasing or demand is falling. I suspect both are working here, and if demand is slowing I welcome it as a necessary forerunner of a bottom.

From here gold must close above US$920 and silver above 13.50 to break out of this trading range. Whether it does that tomorrow, or fools around until August, I don't care. I'm just steady buying silver and gold, and will buy any breakout or dip.

The US Dollar index as humiliated yesterday with a trip below 84, but came back today to 84.08 today. Lower prices coming.

On this day in 1893 a panic hit the New York Stock Exchange, and by year-end the whole country was in the throes of a depression. (The more things change, the more they stay the same.)

I'm sorry I missed sending y'all a commentary yesterday, but I had to attend a funeral
in Memphis.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.