Buy Gold and Silver How to Buy Gold How to Buy Silver Gold Commentary

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Time is Running out for Lower Gold and Silver Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 927.10
Change: -13.30 or -1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.574
Change: -37.3 cents or -2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio: 68.30
Change: 2.780 or 4.2%

Dow Industrial: 8,447.00
Change: 82.38 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.18
Change: 0.27 or 0.3%

The US DOLLAR, today's little rise by 27 basis points to 80.178 notwithstanding, has rolled over to the downside, and must now close above 80.75 to turn up. Maybe it will tomorrow, but probably without much enthusiasm.

STOCKS didn't get close enough to smell Dow 8,600 before they turned and fled. Now the Dow stands under its 200 day moving average (8,464.92 today), which in a bear market usually signals a downturn. The Dow should see 8,200 before it sees 8,600.

The SILVER PRICE slipped below its 50 DMA (14.06 cents) today to close on Comex at 13.574, down 37.3 cents. If the silver price cannot defend the line around 13.50 tomorrow, then 'twill drop to 13.00. If the silver price is ever going to drop further it will happen tomorrow. If it holds on here, well, my, that will be strong indeed.

The GOLD PRICE also dipped below its 50 DMA (930.35) and closed on Comex at US$927.10, down 13.30. Several different plots might unroll: (1) The gold price might stop right here, or (2) the gold price might return to its 918.00 previous low and make a double bottom there, or (3) the gold price could drop through 918 to 900 or lower.

If all this sounds bearish coming from my lips, remember that time is running out for lower gold and silver prices. Besides, I hope they do go down and give all of y'all one last chance to buy silver and gold on the cheap, before gold blows through US$1,000 next fall, holding silver's hand.

Tuesday is supposed to be my day off, but I worked bees today with my son, Wright. I'll never get used to opening up a hive of bees while they calmly go about their business. Well, those sweet yellow Italian bees do that. Those black Caucasian bees will eat you alive, and sting you through a bee suit. Is the honey worth the trouble? Are you kidding? Just one single time taste sourwood honey right out of the hive, and you'll know.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 29, 2009

Fall Will be a Nightmare for the US Dollar, and High Cotton for Silver and Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 940.40
Change: -0.30 or -0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.947
Change: -18 cents or -1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 67.43
Change: 0.838 or 1.3%

Dow Industrial: 8,529.38
Change: 90.99 or 1.1%

US Dollar Index: 79.90
Change: -0.04 or -0.1%

Most markets went sideways today, numbed by traders cleaning their positions before the 4 July holiday.

Both silver and gold prices closed down today on Comex. The gold price dropped 30 cents to 940.40 while the silver price closed down 18 cents at 13.947. While the gold price is holding on at the high end of its trading range, lower closes by both, even though gold's loss was only 30 cents, just doesn't look good. Then again, the week of July 4th is not the time to expect any colossal moves. Somnolence is more likely.

Keep on buying silver and gold on every dip. July brings a possible bankruptcy (practical if not declared) to California, which won't exactly cheer bond markets. Fall will be a nightmare for the US dollar, and high cotton for silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX barely moved today, down 4 basis points at 79.899. Standing under 80 looks weak.

STOCKS rose 90.99 today to close at 8529.38, a little above the 200 DMA (8,479.80). Any rise will probably hit the brick wall at 8,600.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 26, 2009

The Gold Price is About to Move Higher, and Drag the Silver Price with it

Gold Price Close Today : 940.70
Gold Price Close 19th of June: 935.6
Change: 5.10 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.128
Silver Price Close 19th of June: 14.189
Change: -6.10 cents or -0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 66.58
Gold Silver Ratio 19th of June: 65.94
Change: 0.65 or 1.0%

Dow Industrial: 8,438.39
Dow Industrial 19th of June: 8,536.03
Change: -97.640 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index: 79.83
US Dollar Index 19th of June: 80.268
Change: -0.440 or -0.5%

The chart above brightly illustrates why you ought to check WEEKLY charts as well as daily. Think about all the back-and-forth, the tug-and-pull, the blowing and puffing this week -- for what? After all is said and done, the gold price stands five bucks higher, the silver price has fallen a silly six cents, the dollar has fizzled, and stocks have fallen 100 points. In other words, nothing much happened, or else it turned out dead contrary to what you expected during the week.

Since the dollar hit that high on 15 June at 81.085,it has established a firm DOWN trend. Today the dollar ended up at 79.828, down 44 more basis points. If it falls below 79.60 on Monday, then the sharks will smell the blood in the water and the dollar will drop another 100, maybe 150 basis points. Also, I hope the last two weeks' trading has demonstrated to y'all that the idea that gold is tied to the dollar is hogwash. Gold's moves have not been proportional to the dollars, and some days they move the same direction. The Dollar is one driver of gold, but not the only one.

After a rough week when it appeared the gold price would extend its correction down to US$900, it stopped at US$918 and rose to close the week at US$940.70 (Comex), up $5.10 from the week before! Expect an attack on the gold price on Monday, but if the gold price can hold on to US$930 next week, then the low is behind us.

The SILVER PRICE, as always more volatile than the GOLD PRICE, took a greater wound from this week's attack. It closed up today 12.3 cents on the day, but still ended the week down 6.1 cents at $14.12.(Yesterday's commentary had the wrong price, by the way. The silver price closed at $14.00 cents, not $14.05 cents.) Right now, silver is following gold, and y'all shouldn't expect that to change any time soon. At stake here for the Nice Government Men is keeping the gold price away from US$1,000. However, gold is tugging at the leash so hard it might reach US$1,000 before the fall, unseasonal as that might be.

On the other hand, gold's strength might evaporate on Monday and we'd be left with a summer correction to fill out, and lower prices. Right now, my instincts tell me the gold price is about to move higher, and drag the silver price with it.

STOCKS dropped today 34.01 to end at 8,438.39 (S&P500 fell 1.36 to 918.90). With all the nutty projects and changes coming out of Washington, how do they expect stocks ever to rise? Stocks hate uncertainty. Meanwhile, the government is changing all the rules, day by day. Worse, all these changes place permanent drags on the economy, new costs and charges that will continue to pull it underwater long after the current crop of goofs has left DC. If I had planned to de-industrialize the US and gut its economy, I couldn't have done a better job than the US government has done since 1945. Makes you wonder whose side they are on. Anyhow, stocks will fall again next week, and probably will hit 7,800 before this particular downtrend ends.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 25, 2009

If the Gold Price Closes Above 940 the Bottom for this Correction is Behind Us

Gold Price Close Today : 939.10
Change: 5.00 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.00
Change: 9.5 cents or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio: 66.84
Change: -0.094 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial: 8,472.40
Change: 172.54 or 2.1%

US Dollar Index: 80.l35
Change: -0.18


Heavens! The daily charts for silver and gold prices just look too strong for a continuing correction. After making a double bottom at 918 on Monday, the gold price tried Wednesday and Thursday to bull its way through 940 without success. If it closes above 940 then the bottom for this correction is behind us. If not, bottom probably still in, but the gold price must drop back down to last bottom to prove it.



The Silver Price daily chart looks just like gold's a flat-topped rising triangle. In a sane world that would mean it's about to break out to the upside, but we are not dealing with a sane world. For the silver price, 14.06 is the barrier. A close above that says silver's bottom is in, a close below that means silver must work a while longer on the downside.

Today the silver price on Comex closed up 9.5 cents at 14.005 cents while gold closed at US$939.10, up 5.00. I know it sounds crazy after this week's drop, but both silver and gold prices look poised to rise.

The US Dollar index dropped another 18.3 basis points today to stop at 80.354. It can't even push through 81. If the dollar index closes below 79.60, it will fall at least 200 basis points.

STOCKS have probably finished their downward move for a few days. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to have put in a little double bottom at about 8,260. After the big fall stocks are due for a little countertrend bounce.

I'm so far out of the mainstream I ought to be called the slipstream or the limpid pool or maybe rain puddle. I listen to economists on NPR (I know -- why would anybody do that? The crime is its own punishment) and they must be living in a parallel universe. At least, what they all see is invisible to me. I'll tell y'all what. If the elusive "bottom of this recession" actually happens this summer as they are predicting, then I'll make a promise: I have a large-brimmed straw hat I wear to mow. Next summer this time if the economy is just a-hummin' along, I'll go out in the yard in front of y'all and everybody and I will eat that straw hat. Shoot, I'll throw in a couple of big bugs, too.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Gold Price Headed for US$1,300 and Higher, Most Likely by Year End

Gold Price Close Today : 923.90
Change: 3.30 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.834
Change: 14 cents or 1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio: 66.78
Change: -0.442 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 8,322.91
Change: -16.10 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 79.83
Change: -0.95 or -1.2%

The Silver Price closed today at 13.834, down 14, and is trapped under its 50 day moving average (now 13.81). That might mean that silver will fall to its 200 DMA (now 12.12). Markets tend often to do that, but it's not inevitable. More likely seems to me a drop to 13.00, maybe 13.50.

Why? Because the dollar lost momentum badly today, and I'm not sure it can continue to rally. Besides, time is running out for silver's seasonal low. However, other silver price indicators are not yet oversold, and I recognize that I am so bullish that I will always put the best colour on silver's outlook, as hard as I try to be objective.

Same outlook holds for gold price. It rose today 3.30 to US$923.90, but remains below its 50 DMA at 925.26. Will it drop to its 200 DMA at 870.74? Again, markets do not drop from the 50 DMA to 200 DMA every time. Over the last six months, the gold price has tended to drop back less than I expected, certainly less than the max I expected.

Torture is, you want to buy on a dip, but you can't know whether the dip is dipped out yet -- or not. Worst place to land is twisting in the breeze of indecision, blown first one way then the next, and you end up not buying anything. Keep on reminding yourself that after this correction ends, the gold price will be headed for US$1,300 and higher, most likely by year end.

When something is crazy, it invites comment. The US Dollar is crazy, so I will comment. Today the US Dollar index dropped nearly 100 basis points, 95.2 to be exact, to 79.831. Yes, it has fallen below 80 once again. This rallying project is not going to be as easy as the Nice Government Men thought. Somebody fought back today. Twice now the dollar's rally has been flung back at 81 - 81.50. What was an uptrend has now become a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows the last 7 days. Another new low tomorrow wrecks the downtrend channel and sends the dollar breaking out to the downside, contrary to my expectation.

Wow. Explain to me why the Dow won't drop to 7,800, because I can't see a reason. Indices were mixed today, some up, some down, not much movement. 'Tis a market undecided, but that generally means weakness.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 22, 2009

Gold Price Momentum is to the Downside, but How Far?

Gold Price Close Today : 920.60
Change: -15.00 or -1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.694
Change: -39.5 cents or -2.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 67.23
Change: 0.820 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial: 8,339.01
Change: -200.72 or -2.4%

US Dollar Index: 80.27
Change: -0.30 or -0.4%

Big news today were the drops in silver and gold prices. Well, big news if you are a goof who listens to CNN and the others, and therefore didn't already know that silver and gold prices were correcting.

Looking closer, the metals move was widely blamed on the rallying dollar, but as y'all know, because y'all have been watching it with me, a 46 basis point move for the dollar, even a 46 bp move up, is nothing big for the dollar lately, so other forces must have been active, fullness of time or Nice government Men, I don't know which.

Today at the Comex close the Gold Price dropped 15 to close at 920.60, while the silver price dropped 39.5 cents to close at 13.6940. In the later market the gold price has risen to 922.20 and the silver price to 13.77.

The gold price dropped US$10 about 5:30 a.m. Eastern time. It fell to 918 support, then was stopped rising at 922. Clearly gold's momentum is to the downside, but how far? It will probably end about the same time the US Dollar tops, so another 1 - 4 weeks. The gold price barely broke its 50 DMA (924.38) and bias in a bull market is to remain above the 50 and 200 DMA. SO if the gold price holds on here, it won't revisit its 200 DMA (now 870.14). A more likely target is 906, but there is also support at 890, and rock solid support at 865. I don't expect to see 900 breached.

The Silver Price broke $14.00 about 5:00 a.m. EDT, hung at 13.80, then about 14:00 broke to $13.70. 13.50 promises to be the solid support. The silver price now stands at its 50 DMA (13.88) while the 200 DMA lies far below at 12.12.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO reached 67.23 today. If it trades above 68:1, swap gold for silver.

I have been recommending that y'all buy silver and gold on any decline -- well, here's a big one. We have to be somewhere near a bottom. Remember that silver and gold are in a primary bull market, and they will be rising again after this correction.

The manic-depressive US DOLLAR INDEX had another manic fit this morning and rose 46 basis points to end the day at 80.846. Looks to me there remains another 2 - 3 weeks on the dollar's manic spurt, then it drops again. First resistance stands at 81.50, then 82, then 82.60. Don't y'all get tired of this? Hogwash pouring in a tidal wave across media and markets, tugged first 180 degrees one way, then the next day 180 degrees the other. It betrays the massive fear, terror and uncertainty in markets.

STOCKS already stood beneath their 200 day moving average (DMA, now 8,553), & now they've fallen below their 50 DMA as well (8,378). If stocks break Dow 8,200 they will no doubt fall to the next support level, 7,800.

I intend to remain grouchy all week. All the women in our family, including my wife, have fled to a cabin on Pickwick Lake with all the children. For a week. I am always grouchy when my wife is away, but I won't get anything to eat all week, either. Nothing to look forward to until she returns.3

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 19, 2009

Correction in Silver and Gold Prices is Not Over Yet

Gold Price Close Today : 935.60
Gold Price Close June 12: 940.10
Change: -4.50 or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.189
Silver Price Close June 12: 14.865
Change: -67.60 cents or -4.5%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.64
Gold Silver Ratio June 12: 65.64
Change: 2.70 or 2.70

Dow Industrial: 8,536.03
Dow June 12: 8,799.26
Change: -263.230 or -3.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.268
US Dollar June 12: 80.197
Change: 0.071 or 0.1%

For a rallying market, the US DOLLAR INDEX didn't make much headway this week. Today it gave up a whole week's progress. Scoreboard stands up 7 basis points, about 0.1%. Dollar's rally has yet a ways to run. Fed appears to be draining liquidity, which helps the dollar, but with congress voting yesterday to spend another $106 billion on perpetual-war-for-perpetual-prosperity, that won't help the dollar long term. However, for several more weeks the dollar will be causing trouble for metals.

STOCKS could not thread their way through 8700, and so fell back this week. Probably they haven't seen the end of the valley yet on this move. Longer term, keep your eyes open for Dow 6,000.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS fell this week, knocked flat again off of G$193 (9.336 oz). Stocks will keep on under-performing gold for another long time it seems.

I've been studying gold and silver seasonality this week. Did y'all know that in 5 out of the last 8 bull market years, gold has posted its yearly low by 15 May? About half the time gold's high falls in December. Silver makes its low (on average) on 13 June. Of course, all those are averages and offer therefore only general guidance. In other words, you might get creamed following that for a trading guide, but you might not.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES have held up well this week. Primarily I was concerned whether the gold price could hold the 928 - 930 resistance area, and it did. Traded all the way up to 940, but couldn't break through yet.

Today on Comex the silver price closed down 4 cents at 14.189. The gold price closed up 1.60 at US$935.6

The silver price has been weaker during this correction, but that's like saying "water is wet." The silver price is more volatile, so of course is weaker in a correction. Still, the silver price has defended 14.00, and that's heartening.

Correction in silver and gold prices is not over yet. Seasonality suggests it has only a couple more weeks to run. A gold close below $900 would probably fall quickly to 865, but that's an outside chance. Silver might trade to 13.00 or 13.50. That's why these 930 and 14.00 levels successfully defended this week are so important. If we can go another week with those intact, then the correction's worst beating is behind us.

Gold and silver price long term trends are UP. Use every instance of price weakness to buy more.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 18, 2009

The Gold Price Couldn't Break Through $940 on the First Try

Gold Price Close Today : 934.00
Change: -1.40 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.229
Change: -4 cents or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.64
Change: 0.086 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 8,555.60
Change: 58.42 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index: 80.60
Change: 0.40 or 0.5%

The GOLD PRICE closed on Comex down $1.40 at US$934. It held on most of the day above $936, but something around 12:30 EDT took the gold price down another couple of bucks. Low was $929.75, and by now gold has eroded to $931.10. Remember yesterday I suspected that the gold price would not break through $940 on the first try, and it didn't. Now it will test the downside of the range.

The SILVER PRICE could not climb above $14.40 and just trailed off all day. However, it remained above $14.06. Low was $14.12.

On Comex the silver price closed at $14.22, down 4 cents, and now is trading at $14.18. Tomorrow we will see exactly how strong silver is and how long this correction will last.

US DOLLAR INDEX today rose 39.8 basis points to 80.597. Yes, it is headed higher, but against a mighty head win of contempt, distrust, and suspicion. 82.5 or 83 probably will mark its high.

STOCKS held on where they were today. Dow gained 58 to close at 8,555.60 and S&P 500 rose 7.66 to 918.37. Looks like time has come for a down leg in stocks that could touch 8,000 Dow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 17, 2009

If the Gold Price Low Was Not on Monday it is Close to a Bottom

Gold Price Close Today : 935.40
Change: 3.80 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.269
Change: 14.9 cents or 1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.55
Change: -0.423 or -0.6%

Dow Industrial: 8,497.18
Change: -7.49 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index: 80.26
Change: -0.48 or -0.6%

Somebody raided gold on the opening, driving it down to to $928.14 suddenly. Whoops! It was utterly without effect. The GOLD PRICE climbed steadily all day to close up $3.80 by the Comex close (12:30 CDT at US$935.40). At 1700, my time, gold is trading at $939.20. In other words, gold gained steadily throughout the day. Now it has reached resistance at $940. Tomorrow it will surely test that, but probably won't pierce it on the first try. If not, the bounce off $940 will tell us how hard and long the rest of this correction will be. As long as the gold price doesn't close below $926.80, the correction will be short and shallow. If it closes below $920, 'twill take a little longer.

In the last three days' trading the SILVER PRICE appears to have made a rounding double bottom at $14.06. As I observed yesterday, silver will at least trade up to $14.60 to fill that $14.40 - $14.60 gap its fall left on the chart.

At Comex close silver settled at $14.29, up 14.90 cents. At the end of my day, it's trading up another 12.1 cents at $14.39. So with silver we are watching $14.60 and $14.06. Long as it remains above 14.06, we'll keep assuming silver has bottomed.

Y'all don't forget what I said about this time of year. The seasonality charts for both silver and gold prices expect lows around this time of the year. So whether we saw lows on Monday, or whether they fall a little more, in time at least we are close to bottoms.

STOCKS today fell only slightly and traded in a fairly narrow range, closing down 7.49 on the Dow at 8,497.18. S&P dropped 1.26 to 910.71. If stocks do not hold on here, their next stop is 8,200.

US DOLLAR INDEX dropped a huge 48.2 basis points to 80.262. As usual, the dollar is wearing out friends, but its enemies never tire.

I want to get one thing straight in y'all's heads. The single most important principle in investing is always invest with, and never against, the primary trend. By primary trend I mean the 15 to 20 year general up ("bull market") or down ("bear market") trend. Never buck the primary trend -- never. That rule means you must not buy stocks or dollar denominated investments, because stocks and dollars are locked in bear trends that will continue at least until 2015.

If y'all never remember another word I write, never forget this: the trend is your friend. You will NEVER beat the trend.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Daily Gold Price Chart Looks Like Monday Marked a Bottom for a While

Gold Price Close Today : 931.60
Change: 4.70 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.120
Change: 10 cents or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio: 65.98
Change: -0.135 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial: 8,504.67
Change: -107.46 or -1.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.72
Change: -0.44 or -0.5%

STOCKS look awfully sick. Dow rose to hit its 200 day moving average (DMA, today 8,612), and rolled over like a roach hit with Raid, feet in the air. A correction here in the unsupported summertime could get bloody. I truly hope y'all do not own stocks.

US DOLLAR INDEX, with its up/down, up/down, has turned its V-bottom into a mushy W written by someone holding the pencil in his mouth. Will probably keep on climbing, but strong one day, weak the next.

GOLD's 50 Day Moving Average (DMA) at 920 really looks like a spot where gold could turn around. Ditto Silver at its 13.73 -50 DMA. Gold's low today was 929.90. Hmmmm. Daily gold price chart looks like Monday marked a bottom for a while.

SILVER's daily chart has a big gap between 14.40 and 14.60. Because markets nearly always fill gaps, a move to 14.60 will not mean anything -- yet. Although silver's chart is not nearly as plain or strong as gold's, still today probably marked at least a temporary bottom. However, it must hold 14.07.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO today near 66 must be hovering somewhere near a top. Right, it might rise to 67.50 where it fell off earlier, but 66 will work, too.

Yes, the silver price took a hard blow yesterday, as did the gold price , but it's not a catastrophe. Use these low silver and gold price opportunities to buy more.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 15, 2009

Average Seasonal Gold Price Low Takes Place on June 13

Gold Price Close Today : 926.90
Change: -13.20 or -1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.020
Change: -84.5 cents or -5.7%

Gold Silver Ratio: 66.11
Change: 2.870 or 4.5%

Dow Industrial: 8,612.13
Change: -187.13 or -2.1%

US Dollar Index: 81.09
Change: 0.87 or 1.1%

Tornado spawning storms are headed my way, so I'll have to make this fast.

US Dollar index rose sharply today, up 87 basis points to 81.085. That wouldn't make much difference to silver and gold were they rallying, but they're correcting, so it hurts. Top on US dollar index is 82, but perhaps as high as 200 day moving average at 83.58.

Rising dollar recently (for reasons mysterious) hurts stocks as much as metals. (Maybe not so mysterious, though -- at least stocks represent something, whereas a US Dollar is simply an I-O-U-nothing.) Dow dropped 187.13 today (2.1%) to 8,612.13. S&P 500 fell even harder, down 22.49 to 923.72. Nice Government Men better hope that US Dollar doesn't rally too long, or the "Myth of Recovery" whirling around a "rising" stock market will vanish with the mist.

The GOLD PRICE took a hard lick today, down 13.20 to close on Comex at 926.90. Trading in the current market at 928. This is the support area that should have stopped it -- so far so good. The SILVER PRICE showed its superior volatility on the downside today with an 84.5 cent fall to 14.02 cents.

When endeth the pain? Not long. Often these waterfalls are over in 10 - 11 days, or have at least hit their lows. Still, let's look at the downside possibilities.

WAIT! Wait! Did I forget to tell y'all something I discovered today? Working on seasonality of metals, I found that for the last 10 years, the average (not actual) seasonal low for silver and gold prices takes place on June 13. Since that's an average, it might move several weeks either way in any given year, but the point is clear: we are near a bottom in time (seasonality).

Percentage wise silver will, as usual, fall further than gold. Silver could stop here at 14.00, or drop to 13.80-13.50, or 13.00. My guess is for less correction rather than more, so I am watching 14.00 and 13.80 closely. The gold price might stop here around 928-930, where we spent a week when we were rising, but might also stop at 920, 900, or 890. Right now, US$900 is the lowest I see, but the market speaks every day and I can but listen.

Don't let this drop in silver and gold prices bother you. Remember, both are in a long term primary uptrend (bull market) and the trend is your friend. Best bull market strategy is to buy, hold, and buy more.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 12, 2009

Monday or Tuesday Ought to Mark the Gold Price Low

Gold Price Close Today : 940.10
Gold Price Close June 5th : 961.70
Change: -51.10 or -3.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.865
Silver Price Close June 5th : 15.376
Change: -21.60 cents or -2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 63.24
Gold Silver Ratio June 5th : 62.55
Change: 0.70 or 1.1%

Dow Industrial: 8,799.26
Dow June 5th : 8,763.13
Change: 36.130 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 80.197
US Dollar June 5th: 80.677
Change: -0.480 or -0.6%

This week only proved that the US Dollar is rallying (temporarily) while silver and gold prices are correcting a bit and stocks are dithering at 8700. As a friend said to me today, this summer may be your last chance to buy gold under $1,000 and silver under $16.00.

Before we go further, look at the Dow In Gold Dollars (DiG$) It rose G$5.12 (0.225 oz) this week, to rest today at G$193.49(9.360 oz). That's intriguing, because the DiG$ has stopped above $193 four times since 17 April, and afterwards immediately fell back, as if it had been hit in the head with a hammer. The DiG$ of course, shows us how stocks are performing against gold. Those repeated rises to G$193+ might leave you remembering what I have said so often about markets: up or down, the more times a market tests a level, the greater the likelihood it will eventually break that level. So, Moneychanger, why isn't the DiG$ telling us now that stocks are about to soar against gold?

Because on the chart the DiG$ has painted out a Broadening Top, with highs at nearly the same place and a series of lower lows. Looks like a megaphone pointed right. It's generally a dead-on indicator that a market will plunge, although it takes a while to work out, slow but reliable.

Conclusion: stocks have reached a peak against gold, and gold will shortly begin outperforming stocks again soon.

I've been expecting that this precious metals correction would be a short, shallow affair. If the February silver peak (about 14.50) doesn't hold, though, silver could drop to 13.00. That's not what I expect -- I expect $14.50 to hold -- but that's a small possibility. Long before that, however, comes in support at $14.00.

Today confirmed my suspicion that the metals rally last week was the 2nd leg up ("B" leg) before the 3rd and final leg down ("C"). Most likely that means silver will see a bottom below 14.74 and the gold price below 940. Of course, these are merely my fine guesses what will happen. Don't let the best become the enemy of the good. Silver and Gold are in a bull market: that rising market will easily bail out all your timing mistakes. So don't snooker yourself by not buying at 14.75 because you expect it to fall to 14.50.

For both gold and silver, Monday or Tuesday ought to mark the low.

GOLD PRICE today dropped $21.20 to close at US$940.10. Next support lies at 930. The Silver Price dropped 61.6cents to close on Comex at 14.8650 (low at 14.785). At 1700 Central time they are trading at 939.3 and 14.85 -- not too enthusiastic.

The US DOLLAR index was pressuring metals today. The[shabby] paper dollar rose 63.3 basis points to 80.197. Look for this rally to slam into 82 like Wile E. Coyote slamming into a brick wall, in 3 - 4 weeks at most.

STOCKS have dithered around 8700 all week, climbing at last today to 8,799.26. I have still been waiting for the Dow to reach 9,000 - 9,700, but it's running out of time. Stocks don't like a rising dollar, either, but if they don't begin rising again on Monday, will they ever? As I have long advised get out of stocks and stay out. Still holding stocks? Sell from 9,000 to 9,700.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 11, 2009

Is the Gold Price Correction Over Or is Another Leg Down Coming?

Gold Price Close Today : 961.30
Change: 7.30 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.480
Change: 26.8 or 1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 62.10
Change: -0.614 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial: 8,770.95
Change: 31.90 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 79.53
Change: -0.80 or -1.0%

Most corrections play themselves out as three waves: down (A), up (B), down [C]. Treacherous part of that is the B wave is often so strong it convinces you that the correction is over, when in fact there's another leg down coming. That could be where we are today with silver and gold prices.

Today silver and gold prices looked strong as a garlic milkshake. The Gold Price rose 7.30 to 961.30 and the Silver Price rose 26.8 cents to 15.481 Yet remember this area caused trouble for silver earlier, and the gold price finds resistance where it is as well.

And I could be wrong, too. However, correction won't be over until silver price closes over 16.00 and the gold price over 983.

US DOLLAR INDEX lived up to its recent record of volatility, dropping 80 basis points today to land at 79.532. Market doesn't believe it's worth 80, apparently. But the dollar is rallying, and has only just begun. It will see 82 before that ends.

STOCKS fiddled today, too. The Dow rose 31.9 to 8,770.95 and S&P500 rose 5.74 to 944.89.

Y'all need to bear in mind that during the summer, everybody goes away. That affects markets as well, so they tend to sort of float sideways. But stay alert, because whenever you see silver or gold prices dip, buy them. 'Twill be higher next fall.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Gold and Silver Prices are Still Correcting

The GOLD PRICE closed the day with one of those dreaded "unchanged" Comex closes. That doesn't mean it will drop, but double closes often do bring a change of direction. Anyhow, technically gold remains in a correcting downtrend until it closes above the last high close, cents above US$983. Today it closed at US$954.00

The SILVER PRICE climbed 8.5 cents today, closing on Comex at $15.21. This is positive, this is good, but technically silver's case resembles gold. As long as it is below the last high, which memory recalleth as about $15.95, it's technically correcting.

Until I see closes below US$930 and $14.50, I continue to expect these corrections to be shallow and short lived. The market's handing you a second chance. Don't pass it up.

STOCKS may have been confused yesterday,with some indices up and some down, but today they ended that confusion by all dropping together. 'Twasn't a huge drop, to be sure, but it certainly doesn't look like strength, either. You ought to be looking still to sell stocks from 9,000 Dow to 9,700 Dow.

Volatility in the US DOLLAR INDEX truly drags my jaw down. Down 100 basis points one day, up 42.4 next. It closed above 80 today at 80.266, but all this volatility reveals a very distrustful market. Dollar is indeed "rallying", but I doubt it will last long or exceed 82.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 09, 2009

As Long the Gold Price Holds Above 938 - 941.50 It Will be a Short Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 954.00
Change: 2.30 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.128
Change: 18.5 cents or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio: 63.06
Change: -0.627 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial: 8,763.06
Change: -1.43 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 79.86
Change: -0.96 or -1.2%

Imagine trying to manage the US Dollar. It's like coaching a high school football team. Sometimes your players do okay, but other times they come onto the field and ask what that pointy leather thing is. So the magnificent dollar dropped nearly 100 basis points today, below 80, to close at 79.861. Market is saying, "We don't trust you one bit. You're worse than a bad tooth or a rotten ankle, but we will run with you when we can, and against you when we can't." The dollar's growing untrustworthiness, of course, works wonders for good old reliable silver and gold.

STOCKS were a welter of confusion today, some indices up and some down, and we know that confused markets usually don't go anywhere, unless maybe it's down. Dow closed down 1.43 at 8,763.06, S&P up 3.29 at 942.43. It's really painful watching stocks. Stay out.

The Silver Price jumped up nearly 1.25% today, and has held above 14.80 cents. It rose 18.5 cents to 15.128. I know this volatility wears on the nerves, but it will pay off in the long run.

The gold price rose 2.30 to US$954 today. It remains above its 10 day moving average, while the silver price does not. I am really most closely watching that 938 - 941.50 support. As long as it holds above that, this will be a short correction.

Today's action shows that very few people trust the US dollar, but plenty trust silver and gold. Not much change there.

It's a bull market for silver and gold. Keep buying every chance you get.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 08, 2009

Expect the Gold Price to Extend its Rally After a Short Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 951.70
Change: -10.00 or -1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.943
Change: -43.3 cents or -2.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 63.69
Change: 1.143 or 1.8%

Dow Industrial: 8,692.02
Change: -71.11 or -0.8%

US Dollar Index: 80.81
Change: 0.14 or 0.2%

As suspected on Friday, silver and gold prices followed through on the downside today. Meanwhile, the US dollar index gained 13.5 basis points to close at 80.805.

The gold price dropped $10 to US$951.70. Low was US$943.20. I expect that the lowest this correction might drag gold would be 930 to 941.50. Low should come shortly, and entire correction shouldn't last more than four weeks.

The silver price, ever more volatile, dropped 14.3 cents today to 14.943 cents. The low was 14.71. Expected low here is not more than 14.50 - 14.80. Correction should be over in four weeks or so.

One wonders now if STOCKS will ever climb up to 9,000, let alone 9,700. Stocks are running into a wall of selling at each new level gained. Yet the hopeful bulls have not yet learned that a bear market is here, and continue forlornly to hang on, in the teeth of the facts.

Expect silver and gold prices to extend their rally after a short correction. Buy any price dips.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, June 05, 2009

Gold Price MIGHT Reach 920 - 930, But 940 Seems More Likely

Gold Price Close Today : 961.70
Gold Price Close May 29th : 978.80
Change: -17.10 or -1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.376
Silver Price Close May 29th : 15.60
Change: -22.40 cents or -1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 62.55
Gold Silver Ratio May 29th : 62.74
Change: -0.20 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial: 8,763.13
Dow May 29th : 8,500.33
Change: 262.800 or 3.1%

US Dollar Index: 80.677
US Dollar May 29th: 79.317
Change: 1.360 or 1.7%

Gold's chance to break through $1,000 this week were cut short by Tiny Tim Geithner's love-fest with the Chinese. I heard that when he addressed a Chinese crowd and said their "investment" in US government debt was safe, the crowd laughed. Yet he squeezed out some sort of communiqué that implied the Chinese would continue taking licks from the US Dollar. That was enough to send the sleepy US dollar up 100 basis points, then down about the same on Thursday, and up again today 126 basis points to 80.68.





Gold and Silver Prices confirmed my yesterday's suspicions by dropping today to their Wednesday lows. To recap this week's price activity it was approximately this: Wednesday gold down $20 and silver down 60c; Thursday, gold up $20 and silver up 58c; today, Gold down $20 and silver down 50c. Now what does all this sand in our eyes really hide?



On the weekly chart the silver price has broken out of the downtrend that had held it captive from the February high. Momentum indicators there do not appear overbought. On the daily chart, however, the same indicators are hovering near the top of the overbought range. Yet the daily chart breathes no gloom. Rather, it appears to have broken out now above the February high, and after a good run needs to rest, correcting to 14.40 - 14.80. Then, after 3 - 4 weeks it will begin climbing again, although the summer doldrums may drag out that time a bit.



Likewise, gold's weekly chart shows indicators long removed from overbought, but daily chart is calling for a correction. Once gold crosses $1,000 it will dash for $1,300.00. At extreme low of this correction gold price MIGHT reach 920 - 930, but 940 seems more likely.



Add this: the GOLD/SILVER RATIO broke through 68 resistance and has fallen nearly to 61. This is foaming-at-the-mouth bullish for silver and gold prices.

The source of all this vibration is the US DOLLAR INDEX. Today's dollar action gives the chart the look of a V-bottom. It should rally about 4 weeks till it reaches the brick wall of 82 and falls like your checking balance the week before Christmas. Then the frenzied flight out of the buck and into gold will re-commence.

Stocks have cracked (but only cracked) the door of the Dow's 200 day moving average (8,709) which generally marks the upper range of a rallying bear market. Yes, the Dow can still exceed its 200 DMA and trade there a while, but it won't last long.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, June 04, 2009

Good Chance Silver and Gold Prices Will Correct For a While

Gold Price Close Today : 981.20
Change: 16.70 or 1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.883
Change: 58.3 cents or 3.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 61.78
Change: -1.262 or -2.0

Dow Industrial: 8,726.32
Change: 51.04 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 79.34
Change: -0.15 or -0.2%


When Comex closed today at 12:30 Central Daylight time, the gold price had regained 16.70 of its 18.70 loss yesterday to close at 981.20. The silver price took back 58.3cents of its 64.5 cent lost, and ended at 15.883. At 5:00 p.m. they're trading at US$979.8 & 1592 c. It's very unusual for any market to come back that way after a very sharp drop. What does that mean?

Looking at other indicators, RSI and MACD, gold and silver could have reached their max and the US Dollar Index could have reached its low. But then, today's near-total recoveries speak against that. If I had to say (and I don't but I will), I'd say there's a good chance silver and gold prices will correct for a while, and the US Dollar will rally. This can't last long, as the dollar today, after yesterday's near-100 basis point rise, lost 15 basis points. That, and the metals' rise, leaves the impression that the market doesn't really buy the idea of US Dollar strength.

Here's how you'll know that interpretation is wrong: the gold price will close above 984 and the silver price above 16. If you see those together, then Watch out! Silver and gold prices are headed for the moon.

Don't mistake my words. Gold and silver price correction should be short and shallow, not lower than 941.50 and 14.80 (if that low) and for a week or so at most. Expect dollar rally to be patchy, weak, unconvincing.

Once again, use any price weakness in silver and gold to buy more, OR buy any breakout over 984 and 16.

Stocks, stocks -- does anybody watch stocks any more? They rose a bit today. Dow settled up 51 points at 8,726 & S&P rose 8.52 to 940.28. Nothing much happening there. Rally is nearly exhausted, but expect at least one more pop higher.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Buy Any Silver or Gold Price Dips

Gold Price Close Today : 964.50
Change: -18.70 or -1.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.300
Change: -64.5 cents or -4.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 63.04
Change: 1.38 or 2.23

Dow Industrial: 8,675.24
Change: -65.63 or -0.8%

US Dollar Index: 79.46
Change: 0.97 or 1.2%

I know these sudden down-days are nerve-racking for y'all, but I've been doing this for 29 years and I am disgusted-ly accustomed to surprise parties from the Nice Government Men, may they all be bathed from head to toe in incurable athelete's foot and chiggers!

Hence yesterday, when silver and gold prices were blowing and going and headed much higher, I wrote: "I reckon the Nice Government men are growing restive about now, and might strike a blow at metals, but I don't think they'll do any more than annoy us."

Right on cue, they struck today. Tiny Tim Geithner, your itty-bitty Treasury Secretary, got the Chinese to announce that everything is just roses with them, holding zillions of declining US government treasury paper denominated in declining dollars, and they are just happy as a hog in slop to keep on having their pockets picked, thanks very much, US of A!

Silver and gold prices were up this morning, but when that announcement hit the market, the US Dollar (still the national currency, but probably not for long) rose nearly 100 basis points to 79.459 (moments ago).

Markets seem to dislike a strong dollar. Stocks dropped slightly -- Dow down 65.63 to 8,675 and S&P500 down 13 to 931.76 -- but silver and gold price both took socks to the jaw.



The Gold Price dropped 18.70 to US$964.50 at the Comex close.



The Silver Price fell 64.5 cents to 15.30 on Comex. As of 16:20 Central time, the gold price is trading at 964.20 and the silver price at 15.35.

Bad thing about pulling rabbits out of a hat is that sooner or later you run out of rabbits -- or sometimes the moths eat your hat. Tiny Tim needs to conjure up more magic tricks to get the rotten US Dollar above 82 again. What will it be next time, aliens from planet Zambodia wanting to buy US dollar debt? US government finds new oil field under Washington, DC? Whoops! I forgot, they have oil a-plenty there already: snake oil.

Silver and gold will need 2-3 days to digest this blow, but were so strong leading up to this that it's hard to imagine they will enter a long correction. The gold price needs to protect 965, 941.50 at least, and the silver price needs to protect 14.60 - 14.80. Remember also that the gold price was nearing big resistance at U$1,000, and the silver price was knocking through like resistance at 16.00, so a correction was likely without the NGM. Whether this will turn into a longer dollar rally and longer metals correction, we will see.

Buy any silver or gold price dips. Just buy.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, June 02, 2009

When the Gold Price Breaks 980-something it Will Snap Quickly to $1000

Gold Price Close Today : 983.20
Change: 4.60 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.945
Change: 22 cents or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio: 61.66
Change: -0.570 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial: 8,740.87
Change: 19.43 or 0.22%

US Dollar Index: 78.47
Change: -0.71 or -0.9%

The proverb says, "A bull market climbs a wall of worry." You'll never see that better
illustrated than in the silver and gold markets in the past few weeks. As at 920-930, now gold finds itself at 980 resistance, and is slugging through a few dollars at a time. Yet silver obliged by confirming gold's rise today.

The gold price rose 4.60 to close at US$983.20 on Comex. The silver price rose 22 cents to 15.945 at the Comex close. The gold price hit a high of 986 and the silver price hit 16.02. In the after-Comex market both metals have held their place. When the gold price breaks through that magical 980-something number, it will snap quickly to US$1,000, maybe break clean past that.

Silver and gold prices are going higher. I reckon the Nice Government Men are growing restive about now, and might strike a blow at metals, but I don't think they'll do any more than annoy us.

Motive force here is the US DOLLAR, which is sinking like Charles Ponzi's stock after his indictment. US $ Index sank 71.4 basis points today to 78.465 as I am writing. That only leaves another 50 or so basis points to my target. Can it fall further? Right-o, you bet. But it's liable to stop at 78, even if only for a breather.

After all that effort breaking through 8,600, stocks sat down today. Dow rose 19.43 to
8,740.87. If looking at that stock market won't teach you humility, nothing will.

On this day in 1924 Congress granted US citizenship to all Native Americans. I bet
they liked that!


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, June 01, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Appear to Have Begun Not Just a Small, but a Huge Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 978.60
Change: 0.20 or -0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.725
Change: 0.125 cents or 0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 62.23
Change: -0.511 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial: 8,721.44
Change: 221.11 or 2.6%

US Dollar Index: 79.13
Change: -0.22 or -0.3%


Looked like the end of the world this morning, with the US dollar index down 54.2 basis points to 78.586. Somebody came in and hit gold and silver hard at the open, either the Nice Government Men or all the black-shirted floor traders coming back to work and taking short positions at week's beginning. With the dollar dropping like your car keys over Hoover Dam, you guess who the culprit might be.

Gold and silver prices both held up well despite the attack. At Comex close the gold price was down 20 cents to US$978.60 and the silver price actually rose 12.5 cents to 15.725. Looking at their charts today I gasped to see what had before been unclear to me: silver and gold prices appear to have begun not just a small, but a huge rally. It would take closes below 13.00 and US$920 to persuade me otherwise. It's barely possible that the next few days will see a correction before silver and gold take off again, but once they breach 15.80 cents and US$980, they'll never look back.

Buy any decline in silver and gold. Buy they breakout above 15.80 and US$980.

At last STOCKS broke through 8,600 resistance, and to nobody's surprise, they jumped a long ways. Yet stocks' future is not bright. Top of rally is limited to 9,000 - 9,500. Don't let today's performance distract you.

Here's a quick lesson in cagey gold and silver buying. To figure what you're paying per ounce, divide cost by content. The French ten francs I offered last week contain 0.0934 troy ounce of fine gold. Divide their $101 cost by 0.0934 and you see they cost $1,081.37 per ounce. Spot gold was about $980, so they had a 10.3% premium. Is that a good price? Depends on what everything else costs. When one oz. coins carry a 6 or 7% premium, & 1/10 American Eagles 23%, then 10.3% looks pretty good for
a small coin.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.