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Monday, August 31, 2009

The Gold Price was Driven Back to its Breakout Point Today

Gold Price Close Today : 951.70
Change: -5.30 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.875
Change: 9.1 cents or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,500.97
Change: -43.23 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index: 78.22
Change: -0.91 or -1.1%

The GOLD PRICE was driven back to its breakout point today. This could be a sign that Friday's breakout was only a fake-out, but more likely it is the standard "touchback to breakout" move that most markets make.

The SILVER PRICE makes me lean to that second interpretation, too, since it moved up 9.1 cents today to close at $14.875, hammering on the door of $15.00 resistance. Gold closed today down $5.30 to end at $951.70 on Comex.

On a two month chart the US DOLLAR INDEX has formed a narrow even-sided triangle. More recently (since 17 August) that triangle's nose has dropped sharply, leaving something more like a flat bottomed triangle. The range has narrowed to 78.50 - 79.95 today, and tomorrow will be 78.40 to 78.00, etc. This will not long continue. A close outside that triangle, above or below, will send the $ index sharply in that direction. A close above 79.50 confirms an upside breakout, a close below 77.50 a downside breakdown. Bias leans toward downside breakout.

STOCKS today lost a little ground. Dow slipped 43.23 to close at 9,500.97. S&P500 at 1,021.02 lost 7.91.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, August 28, 2009

Gold Price to Break Through $1,000 This Fall and Silver to Top $21

Gold Price Close Today : 957.00
Gold Price Close August 21: 953.20
Change: 3.80 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.784
Silver Price Close August 21: 14.16
Change: 62.40 cents or 4.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,544.20
Dow Industrial August 21: 9,506.96
Change: 37.240 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 78.366
US Dollar Index August 21: 78.044
Change: 0.322 or 0.4%

The really tasty part of today's GOLD PRICE action was that close above $955. That was the next resistance gold needed to cross. Now one more step above $961, and gold can break free and fly for the moon.

The SILVER PRICE is only following, not leading. $15.00 stands as a big block in silver's road, but the most massive block is $16.00. Interesting that silver today closed above its monthly average for the last 32 months, $14.784 against $13.98.

On Monday the serious players come back from vacation and re-enter the market. Days of traders running the market up and down in a tight range ought to be past us now. I expect to see silver and gold prices rallying strongly through September and October. Unless the dollar stages a surprise rally, expect gold to break through $1,000 this fall and silver to top $21.00.

The US dollar index's close on 21 August didn't answer the riddle after all, and we've been living with it another week. Yesterday the dollar performed so poorly that it seemed certain to crash through 77.50 and confirm a fall, but today it climbed -- late and barely -- above 78.33 support/resistance to close at 78.366, up 27.7 basis points today. For now I am concluding that the dollar has expressed its intention to fall, but we still need to see it close below 77.50 to confirm that.

Even looking at the week's results -- the end of the week never lies about what's happened -- we find a contradiction. The dollar index actually rose this week by 32.2 basis points, still clinging to 78.33 support. Yet gold, after a beating this week, rose US$11.50 today to close on Comex at US$957, up US$3.80 on the week. Silver rose a massive 62.4 cents this week,up 56.4 cents today to close on Comex at $14.784.

Please note that our office will be closed on 14 September through 18 September for a family vacation.

SPECIAL OFFER:
I find I have acquired too many of the tiny Mexican two pesos (contains 0.04823 troy ounce of gold) and two and a half pesos (0.0603 troy ounce). Small gold coins are hard to find right now, but I've been buying these wherever I could find them. I have a limited amount of both denominations, and am offering them to y'all at $64.50 each for the 2-1/2 pesos and US$51.50 each for the two pesos.

Here are the conditions, and how you can bid:
1. Sorry, no orders under US$1,500.00, and no orders outside the United States.
2. Shipping charge of $35.00 applies to all orders.
3. To order, just send an e-mail to franklin@the-moneychanger.com. In the subject line type, "Special Offer at goldprice.org"
4. In the e-mail you must type two things, what you want, and how to get in touch with you. Tell me how many pieces of each coin you want, and give me your name, address, and phone number. Remember, I cannot ship to an e-mail address, so include your physical address and phone number.
5. Coins will be sold on a first-come, first served basis, limit 50 pieces of each to a customer. Sorry, no re-orders at these prices.
6. Prices are based on spot gold at US$956.40 and reflect an 11.8% premium over gold content. Not bad for a coin that small.
7. By return e-mail we will inform you how many coins you have bought and we will send you a trade confirmation. Please remember that once we write a trade, we have a contract we cannot change or cancel. You'll need to send us payment by Wednesday.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, August 27, 2009

The Gold Price Must Close Above $955 then $961 to Break Free of This Trading Range

Gold Price Close Today : 945.50
Change: 1.20 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.220
Change: -3.5 cents or -0.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,580.63
Change: 37.11 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 78.11
Change: -0.53 or -0.7%

Right on cue from the dollar, the GOLD PRICE in the aftermarket jumped from a lackluster close up $1.20 at US$945.50 to US$951, where it remains. The SILVER PRICE trailed along with gold. At the Comex close it had dropped 3.5 cents to $14.22, but as I write it is trading at $14.37.

Snappy day for gold, bouncing back like that, but it must close above $955 then $961 to break free of this trading range. Today's market had the feel of control by traders with one eye on the US dollar pit and one eye on the gold pit. This is not big trading, it's dulldom.

August has almost ended, and next week the big traders will return. We'll see what happens then. I expect silver and gold will begin to rally in earnest.

If I had been long dollars (an exotic thought that!), today's action would have made me sell. The dollar index ranged all day from 78.45 - 78.75. Suddenly at 1400 Eastern Time it collapsed, hitting a low of 77.851. It has since recovered a bit and is not as 78.111, down 52.8 basis points. To slip more than 50 basis points on the day after it climbed over 78.33 resistance? Looks awfully weak. I'm still watching the dollar for a surprise rally, but right now that seems about as likely as my becoming an Olympic javelin thrower.

Stocks spent about half the day down as much as 80 points (Dow), but around midday crossed into positive territory, closing up 37.11 at 9,530.63. S&P500 closed at 1,030.98, up 2.86.

I can't remember when I last outlined my survival strategy for y'all, but I want to make sure y'all understand it. First, secure your source of ongoing revenue. Best of all is to have your own small business, but if you work for someone, do everything possible to make sure you will be the very last one laid off. Second, get out of debt. All debt. Third, buy silver and gold. I don't know any other investment in a bull market, certainly not stocks or dollar denominated assets. There simply is nothing else to invest in. Fourth, get out of the city if you can, on a little piece of land where you can at least grow your own food. Lastly, get busy working with your local community to revive your local economy. The silly centralization of the last century with increasing government and corporate power, is now collapsing. It's time to start building a new safer, saner, and more just economy. Start on the ground where you live.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices are in a Primary Uptrend that Began in 2001 and will Run Until 2014 or Longer

Gold Price Close Today : 944.50
Change: 2.20 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.30
Change: 11.5 cents or -0.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,565.36
Change: 56.08 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 78.26
Change: 0.05 or 0.1%

Today has been a nutty day: everything rose, gold, silver, stocks, even the US dollar. Makes no economic sense, and can't be made to make sense. I've been thinking about the see-sawing between the dollar and stocks and metals. I have concluded we are seeing a flight to tangibles and out of dollars as the dollar is debased. Under that circumstance, even stocks are viewed as hard assets, i.e., at least they are "backed" by bricks and mortar and machines or a going business. Dollar supply expands, dollar falls in value, and people rush to tangibles (real value). Dollar rises, that implies $ supply is shrinking, which implies improving dollar value, so people drop tangibles for dollars. Yes, I know that stocks can only suffer under a severe inflation because interest rates rise and economic calculation becomes nearly impossible, but still they have some tangible value, so are viewed as better than dollars. In every hyperinflation, stocks undergo huge rises, but unfortunately that is only a nominal rise, and never keeps pace with real value, i.e., purchasing power.

This won't last. Wait till this fall when Comrade Obama floats another stimulus package and needs more trillions. He just re-nominated Bernanke for another term as Fed-head. Does anybody think that means Obama expects Bernanke to turn independent and oppose monetizing the debt? To refuse to monetize it? Question answers itself.

The scrofulous US dollar index rose 4.9 basis points to 78.256, still below critical 78.33 resistance. That it hasn't yet fallen off sharply suggests some dollar strength. The Silver Price improved today, rose 11.5 cents to 14.31, above 14.25 resistance, but not by much. The Gold Price rose US$2.20 to US$944.50, but both these rises are essentially noise, back and forth in a trading range bounded by 928 and 954. Only a close outside those levels will signal a big move. Otherwise metals are range-bound until the next economic crisis or financial panic emerges.

Unless the dollar rallies, metals will break out and rally to new high sometime early this fall, and trade in a range until then. If the dollar rallies, metals will swoon until that rally evaporates (as it inevitably will), then resume their rise as the dollar marches onward to its grave.Bottom line: US dollar and stocks remain locked in a primary (15-20 year) downtrend while silver and gold are in a primary uptrend that began in 2001 and will run until 2014 or longer.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, August 24, 2009

Like a Spring, the Gold Price is Coiling for a Break Out

Gold Price Close Today : 942.30
Change: -10.90 or -1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.195
Change: -3.1 cents or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1237.80
Change: -18.70 or -1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 283.75
Change: 2.50 or 0.9%


Gold Silver Ratio
Today: 66.38
Change: -0.915 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,509.28
Change: 3.32 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 78.22
Change: 0.18 or 0.2%

Sorry to keep starting every day with the scrofulous US DOLLAR, but right now that's where the action is. After breaking through 78.33 support on Friday, the dollar recovered 18.1 basis points today, rising to 78.221. Y'all will immediately perceive that 78.221 is not as great as 78.33, so the dollar remains below support in a downtrend. Unless it closes above 78.33, nothing changes in the outlook.

STOCKS today gave mixed messages, some indices up & some down. Confused markets don't usually rise. The Dow rose 3.32 to 9,509.28, while the S&P500 fell 0.56 to 1,025.57. Something new did pop up here: the Dow In Gold Dollars (DiG$) went to a new high for this lackluster rally, G$208.61 (10.091 oz). Because stocks have only very slowly and with great difficulty gained on gold, I don't take that as a sign of anything more than the DiG$ nearing a peak in its rally. I don't expect it to better $215.00 (10.401 oz).

Speaking of confused markets, the GOLD PRICE today fell US$10.90 to close at US$942.30 on Comex, while silver rose 3.1 cents to a Comex close at 14.195. Now y'all understand why I hedged my comments Friday. The gold price needed to follow up with a higher close today, but fell instead. Isn't that weak? Not really, because it didn't fall out of the triangle it has been trading in. I'm tempted to say (with Ned Schmidt) that gold is in the hands of traders, who are taking it back and forth to scalp small scalps. However, the technical pattern doesn't lie. Gold continues to trade within that triangle; falling out of the triangle would have spoken of terrible things, but gold has not fallen out of it. And even-sided triangles can break out up or down. Like a spring, the gold price is coiling for a break out. It's a bull market, so it will most likely break out to the Upside.

The SILVER PRICE rose today, refusing to confirm gold's drop. Since silver is the more volatile metal and the smaller market, that might be a bullish sign. Downside silver might fall to 13.60 without falling out of its upward channel. On the upside, silver needs to climb above 14.25, then challenge 15.00 again.

Responding to my lecture last Thursday, one reader sent me a quotation from Wikipedia that defined deflation as falling prices. Friends, y'all have to learn to distrust Wikipedia as much as any other big media outlet. Wikipedia is just a committee production, and the product is no better than the committee. When the committee cannot define basic terms like "inflation" and "deflation" correctly, the committee doesn't know much and you'd better handle their information accordingly. Wikipedia is handy for some things, but grossly subject to uniformed, partisan articles. "Deflation" is not falling prices, it is a decrease in money supply that MAY cause prices to fall.

For the first time since 1994 my family is taking a vacation the week of 13 September through 19 September. This presents logistical problems roughly equivalent to Napoleon's Grand Army retreating from Moscow in wintertime, yet we will persevere. I will not be publishing commentaries that week, or the following week due to more travelling. But God willing, I will return on 28 September.

You wonderful readers prayed for my granddaughter, Caroline Sanders, when she had two heart surgeries last year. Now she is two, thriving, and must have one additional heart surgery on 13 October 2009. I would deeply appreciate your prayers on her behalf once again.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, August 21, 2009

The Gold Price Must Close Over $961 to Confirm an Upside Breakout

Gold Price Close Today : 953.20
Gold Price Close 14 August: 947.00
Change: 6.20 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.16
Silver Price Close 14 August: 14.715
Change: -55.50 cents or -3.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,256.50
Platinum Price Close 14 August: 1,260.50
Change: -4.000 or -0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 281.25
Palladium Price Close 14 August: 276.00
Change: 5.250 or 1.9%


Gold Silver Ratio
Today: 67.32
Gold Silver Ratio 14 August: 64.36
Change: 2.96 or 4.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,506.96
Dow Industrial 14 August: 9,321.40
Change: 185.560 or 2.0%

US Dollar Index: 78.044
US Dollar Index 14 August: 78.801
Change: -0.757 or -1.0%

Yesterday's tense equilibrium in gold at US$940 gave way today. The GOLD PRICE burst upwards on open like a covey of quail, hit a high of $958, and closed on Comex at US$953.20, up $12.90. When gold popped, it ran to the next resistance level, that important $954-$955.

Now, this is an upside breakout, but to confirm gold must close above its last high, over US$961. Today gold broke out way above the downtrend line from early august. But a close over $965 is needed to break through the downtrend line from June.

If this is a genuine break-out, and not a fake-out, it will be a breakout that never looks back. Buy now or never.

This week's fall took the SILVER PRICE below its trading channel, but today brought it back to that threshold. Silver jumped 28.4 cents to close at $14.16 on Comex. It wants to go higher. The weekly chart remains in an uptrend from last November -- strong as the proverbial garlic milkshake. Buy silver, buy silver.

The US DOLLAR INDEX fell through 78.33 support, dropping 34.7 basis points to 78.044. If the dollar now confirms this break by closing below 77.43, which had been the bottom of the upside-down head & shoulders, then the dollar will most certainly have set its scrofulous feet on the road to 74, and banana republic status.

Sound overcautious? Well, markets have been slapping me around for 30 years, so I've learned to be both chary, wary, and leery. In other words, I've learned respect. The only time a move is really sure is when it's over.

STOCKS surprised me (and others, I'll bet) by cracking 9,400 to rise to 9,506.96, up today 155.91. S&P500 did even better, rising 18.76 to 1,026.13. What gives? Sometimes the B wave of an A-B-C correction(down - up - down) is so strong that it exceeds the previous high. Or maybe stocks have completed their correction and started moving up again. Either way, this no more shows health than the fevered red cheeks on a dying man. Be wise, use stock market strength to sell stocks and convert proceeds into silver or gold.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (DiG$) has moved up very, very slowly, i.e., stocks have slowly edged up against gold. There's probably not another G$10 (0.4838 ounce) left in it. That hints gold should rise to overtake stocks.

On 21 September I will be speaking in Lexington, South Carolina about silver and gold and about re-building local economies. That's really the only way we can get out of this economic swamp permanently. I'll announce the place as time grows nearer.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, August 20, 2009

The Gold Price Has Not Been Broken

Gold Price Close Today : 940.30
Change: -3.00 or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.876
Change: -0.5 cents or 0.0%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,239.00
Change: -3.50 or -0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 274.30
Change: 0.80 or 0.3%


Gold Silver Ratio
Today: 67.76
Change: -0.192 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial: 9,350.05
Change: 70.89 or 0.8%

US Dollar Index: 78.36
Change: -0.14 or -0.2%

Since Monday's low at $930 the GOLD PRICE has been locked in an uptrend. Today it dropped at the open, then built a tight even-sided triangle with a high at $942.90 and a low at $938. Think of a triangle as a coil being compressed. When at last it springs out, it jumps a long way. But the further out into the triangle's nose it trades, the weaker the final breakout will be, i.e., the less distance it will run -- usually.

Gold today reached an equilibrium at $940. Equilibria are high tension states that don't last long. Gold may not rise right away, but it certainly has not been broken, and, now I believe, won't break.

The SILVER PRICE'S last two trading days closely resemble gold's: uptrend from Wednesday, drop on opening, then trading sidewise to upward in a tight, narrow triangle. Silver's triangle looks like a flat topped rising triangle, which usually breaks out upwards.

The US DOLLAR INDEX looked sicker still today. It closed at 78.358, down 14.3 basis points, with a high of 78.667 and a low of 78.299. Most of the day it traded in a 20 basis point range, 78.40 - 78.60. The Dollar just rolled over in a hump from yesterday and melted downhill. Twill surprise me if the dollar doesn't fall through 78.33 support tomorrow and make a long step on its journey to 74.

STOCKS are reaching for 9,400 again, at which point the correction will kick back in and take them lower. Dow today closed up 70.89 at 9,350.05. The S&P jumped over the magical 1,000 point to close at 1,007.37, up 10.91.

I went to the charts today expecting little, but looking at the dollar, gold, and silver, I believe this week has answered my questions. The scrofulous dollar has shot its wad, and LO!no bullet was there. Silver and gold prices have been bloodied, but return unbeaten.

Now the market may hand me my head on a platter tomorrow, I well know, but what I see is what I see.

Whenever I have questions, I come to y'all because someone among you always has an answer. Does anyone have the statement made by the Dutch defenders at Alkmaar to the besieging Spanish in 1578? My books on the Dutch War for Independence are in storage.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, August 19, 2009

If Silver and Gold Prices Don't Break Tomorrow, they Won't Break Down Any Further

Gold Price Close Today : 943.30
Change: 5.60 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.871
Change: -8.5 cents or -0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,242.50
Change: 8.50 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 273.50
Change: 0.20 or 0.1%


Gold Silver Ratio
Today: 68.01
Change: 0.815 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,272.66
Change: 54.72 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 78.51
Change: -0.50 or -0.6%

The GOLD PRICE jumped at midday and knocked on $945's door, hard. Tomorrow might pierce that level, even resolve that long, narrow triangle to the upside (above $960). Low today was $931.90. Gold rose $5.60 to close on Comex $943.30.

The SILVER PRICE'S Comex close made it look weaker than it was today. Silver closed down 8.5 cents at 13.8710, while the gold price rose. That's a non-confirmation, but what does it not confirm? Silver's drop, or gold's rise? I say it is bullish, and gold's strong rise shows that silver's weakness is only passing. (Besides, if I were the NGM and wanted to manipulate gold lower, I would trash the silver market first, where I get more bang for my manipulating buck.)

According to the NYMEX figures, silver supposedly dipped lower today, as low as 13.49 cents, but The Moneychanger never saw that. I never saw it below 13.84. When silver did hit that low, it shot up quickly over 13.90, stayed there most of the trading day, and traded higher in the aftermarket. That 13.8710 Comex close looks like somebody "painting the tape."

If I were short silver or gold, this day's action would send me scurrying to cover and go long. If silver and gold prices don't break tomorrow, they won't break down any further. Think about the US DOLLAR INDEX over the past four days. It bounced off 78.33 support last Friday and rallied Monday and Tuesday. Today shortly after the opening it collapsed off 79.10, and never stopped until it hit 78.34. (There's that number again.) It barely bounced to 78.4, fell again to 78.34, bounced barely, fell again to 78.4, then found sponsorship again and climbed to close the day at 78.506, down 50.1 basis points.

Hogwash. Since 78.33 forms such obvious support, a paranoid like me must suspect the Nice Government Men were busy with the Exchange Stabilization Fund buying dollars to jimmy the market. The dollar really looked weak today, and it has hammered on that 78.33 door once too often. I am tilting against a dollar rally, but dollar needs to break below 78.33 to confirm.

Stocks are just piddling back and forth. Dow closed up 54.72 at 9,272.66, S&P 500 at 995.63, up 5.96.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, August 18, 2009

The Gold Price Must Not Break $930-$928 and Needs to Climb Above $961 for a Breakout.

Gold Price Close Today : 937.70
Change: 3.40 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today :13.956
Change: -1.5 cents or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,234.00
Change: 14.40 or 1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 273.70
Change: 7.35 or 2.8%


Gold Silver Ratio
Today: 67.19
Change: 0.315 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial: 9,217.94
Change: 82.60 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index: 78.98
Change: -0.36 or -0.5%

Today was a re-bound day on which prices rose satisfyingly, but without settling anything.

SILVER'S low today at $13.825 made a double bottom with yesterday's $13.81 low. I like that very much indeed, although the SILVER PRICE dropped 1.5 cents today to close on Comex at $13.9560.

Bellwether GOLD didn't ring any special bells today. It was enough that the GOLD PRICE traded in a tight range from $934.20 to $940. Gold is walking the same tightrope today it has been walking: it must not break $930-$928 (could hit $918 on a one day spike), and needs to climb above $961 for a breakout.

I can promise you this at least: there is no lack of people who want to buy gold whenever it drops. Ditto for silver.

The US DOLLAR INDEX sank 36 basis points to close at 78.983 -- little more than a bounce off the 50 day moving average. $ Index must break 78.33 to turn down.

Nothing new with stocks today. Dow closed up 82.6 at 9,217.94, S&P up 9.94 at 989.67. Correction is not finished, but then, the rally probably hasn't finished yet, either. Sell stocks and put proceeds into silver and gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, August 17, 2009

The Next Few Days Will Set the Trend for Gold and Silver Prices for the Next Few Months

Gold Price Close Today : 934.30
Change: -12.70 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 13.971
Change: -74.4 cents or -5.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,219.60
Change: -26.00 or -2.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 267.35
Change: -7.00 or -2.6%


Gold Silver Ratio
Today: 66.87
Change: 2.518 or 3.9%

Dow Industrial: 9,135.34
Change: -186.06 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index: 79.34
Change: 0.51 or 0.7%

Owch! I warned y'all that Monday might not be pleasant for metals investors, unless they wanted to buy on a dip.

Clearly the next few days will set the trend for the dollar, stocks, and SILVER and GOLD PRICES for the next few months. But wait! No foregone conclusions here! Wait to see what the market says.

As I feared Friday, gold and silver took it on the chin today. At Comex close gold was 12.70 lower than Friday at US$934.30. The SILVER PRICE dropped 74.4 cents to $13.9710. Right now silver is following the GOLD PRICE, so I am most interested in what gold is doing. My friend, Bob the Technical Genius (no kidding, he really is), called today and reminded me of the long, narrow even-sided triangle gold has formed since the February high. Today's gold low was US$929.05, just about dead on the bottom side of that triangle. However, it spent no time there, and for the most part remained above US$930.

Bob the Tech Genius opined that we might yet see one more down day for gold, close on the bottom side of the triangle ($920 at most), then whiplash around to close over $961 and higher without ever looking back.

Another alternative is that gold remains above $918 - $920 support. The worst alternative is that gold breaks its last 300 DMA upward crossing at $909. If so, gold will see six months of lower prices and zig-zagging frustration. Watch markets closely the next couple of days, because they will explain themselves.

Here's another arresting gold nugget that Steve Saville of speculative-investor.com quarried lately. In the gold bull market since 2001, gold has always risen from 15 August to 31 December, that is, closed the year higher than its August 15 price. Another seasonal pattern that points to a shallow (not deeper than $900) gold correction.

More volatile silver rises faster than gold but also suffers more than gold in these downside episodes. Today silver hit both the bottom of its upward trading channel and its 50 DMA ($13.99), but traded up in the aftermarket to $14.04-$14.07. If that bottom channel line with $13.80 support (low today was $13.81) doesn't hold, we have to reckon silver may drop to $13.25 cents. Another interpretation is that silver has formed an inverted head and shoulders bottom with a downslanting neckline from $14.30 in June to about $13.90 today, and we are witnessing only a touchback to the neckline, which will stop there.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today is challenging its 50 day moving average (now 79.55). It closed at 79.344, up 51 basis points. The dollar index appears to have formed an upside-down head and shoulders bottom. Now it must confirm that by closing (1) above the 50 DMA, then (2) above 81.50. If the dollar can do that without collapsing -- closing below 77.43, the last low -- it should head for 82.50 at least, 84 at most.

STOCKS are correcting their run up from 8200 - 9400. First target for a shallow correction would be 9,125. there is support also at 8850, and the 50 DMA stands at 8,773. I still view this as a correction in an upmove, because stocks have not yet made plain that the upmove has ended.

A recent exchange with a subscriber has left something on my mind. You all must realize that the economy and the monetary system, and those goofs who run it, are now in uncharted territory. No central bank has ever before taken such extreme measures and survived. Therefore you have to expect the most extreme volatility in markets. Those waves will wash you out of your position unless you have a firm grip on first principles and where they will take the economy. I am thinking of this: suppose we get another big liquidity panic that runs the dollar up and gold and silver down, something like last fall. It could happen. What will you do then? Whine and moan because your silver and gold have dropped, or suffer with patience because you know that the Fed and the yankee government have set their feet on the path of dollar destruction, guaranteeing that your silver and gold will in the end prosper?

If you don't have a vision of the future, and an understanding of monetary cause and effect, fear and confusion will drive you out of your position. Face that now. Also, you ought to be cleaning up your house from top to bottom, shedding debt if you can, selling every unneeded asset to get liquid, and making all preparations to take your family through the toughest economic times. If you don't believe they are coming, you have deluded yourself. Believe those liars in Washington and the media at peril of your survival.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, August 14, 2009

Use Every Drop in Silver and Gold as an Opportunity to Buy More at a Discount

Gold Price Close Today : 947.00
Gold Price Close 7 August: 957.30
Change: -10.30 or -1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.715
Silver Price Close 7 August: 14.661
Change: .054 cents or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,260.50
Platinum Price Close 7 August: 1,258.50
Change: 2.00 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 276.00
Palladium Price Close 7 August: 274.10
Change: 1.900 or 0.7%


Gold Silver Ratio
Today: 64.36
Gold Silver Ratio 7 August: 65.30
Change: -0.94 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,321.40
Dow Industrial 7 August: 9,372.49
Change: -51.09

US Dollar Index: 78.801
US Dollar Index 7 August: 78.955
Change: -0.154 or -0.2%

The dark shadow across the market remains the US DOLLAR INDEX. Will it stage a surprise rally, or will it keep on falling? Today the dollar index reversed course upward, springing off 78.33 support to close at 78.801, up 39.2 basis points. It is still too early to tell for sure, but dollar index appears to be tracing out an inverted head and shoulders, which points to a rally. If the dollar index falls below 78.33, then it will fall much further, to 74 minimum. The market will tell us which way the dollar will move next. I haven't a clue.

Remember that the US dollar is not the sole determinant of GOLD and SILVER PRICES, but it is the world's most widely used currency. Silver and gold are alternative to the dollar as they are to all other fiat currencies, so whenever the dollar strengthens, gold and silver find it harder to rise. A surprise dollar rally might delay gold's push through $1,000 until early next year.

STOCKS didn't like a stronger dollar, either. The Dow closed at 9,321.40, down 76.79, and the S&P500 closed at 1,004.10, down 8.63. Stocks have made a good run, and whether they extend it or not, are still in line for a correction. Use stock strength to sell any you still own, and turn the proceeds into silver and gold.

Look at the weekly scoreboard above and you will immediately grasp an uneasy contradiction. The SILVER PRICE rose 5.4 cents for the week, the GOLD PRICE fell $10.30. Gold closed the week at $947 (down 7.790 today), with silver at $14.715 (down 26.5 cents today). This looks like silver and gold rallied to previous resistance ($955 and $15.00) and fell back, unable to pierce them.

Next week silver and gold might move lower in a correction, and that's most likely. On the other hand, if gold passes through $955 on Monday, both metals will climb strongly next week.

I don’t believe this forebodes any major correction. Gold I don't expect to see below $930 or so, or silver below $14.00 cents. Recall, however, that I have repeatedly said that gold and silver would move "sidewise to higher" over August.

More and more, we hear new customers saying, "I don't know anything about silver and gold, but the dollar has me so scared I have to do something about it." Then they make BIG commitments to metals. That harbinger hints at something much more portentous, namely, a widespread loss of confidence in the dollar. For a fiat currency that is built on confidence alone, that's not good news.

Use every drop in silver and gold as an opportunity to buy more at a discount. Nothing long term has changed. The U.S. dollar is a dead man walking, and will be wrecked in the next three years.

Yesterday I wrote,"Every day that passes impresses on my mind some new fact pointing to terrible turmoil in the US economy and in society. Pull in your horns. Get your business straight. Don't leave lots of money lying around in banks. Get physical gold and silver, and get it delivered into your own hands. Hold it someplace safe, and that does not mean a bank.

"And make sure your back door is working." I thought that was clear, but from the number of e-mail questions I got, it wasn't. If you store your gold or silver in a bank, ask yourself this question: "How will you get to your gold and silver when the bank is closed?" Will you join the line on the sidewalk outside? Of course, if you don't feel comfortable with a safe in your home, then leave them in the bank. Personally, I'll take my chances with those who rob you with a sixgun, sooner than those who rob you with a fountain pen.

What did I mean about back doors? Simply that no rabbit digs a hole with only one way out. In case everything goes wrong, you need to plan what you will do. Run to friends or relatives in the country? Have a country home ready? If things get rough where you are, where will you go? Most people wait too long to go out that back door, and become refugees. You know what refugees are? People on their way to die some place else.

This is not fear-mongering, it's simple realism. Besides, on the other side of this turmoil, somebody will build a new economy, a just economy with genuine freedom. Wouldn't you like to be part of that re-building?

Better start planning now. And check the hinges on your back door.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, August 13, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Removed Most But Not All the Ambiguity Today

SILVER and GOLD PRICES removed most but not all the ambiguity today. The GOLD PRICE rose $4.00 to US$954.70 on Comex, and in the aftermarket has traded up to $955.50. Y'all probably recall that $954-$955 is a resistance area, so gold's failure to clear the whole area today leaves a trace of ambiguity still.

SILVER, glorious silver, slammed up 40.2 cents today to close at $14.98 cents, highest level since June. From here a believable rally requires silver to climb above $15.00, then run fairly quickly to $16.00 cents and crown it all by smashing through $16.00. Right now, the SILVER PRICE stands on the rallying track.

Today the US DOLLAR INDEX landed just above its 78.33 support, falling 42.9 basis points to 78.414. Now comes the buck to a real test. If it can hold on at 78.33, and re-bound, then we have to call that a bottom and expect the dollar to rally. On the other hand, if the scrofulus US currency falls through 78.33, well, you wouldn't want to kiss it good-bye, but you could wave bye-bye from a safe distance.

STOCKS keep on rising against all doubts, gaining every day in dollar terms, but stuck against gold. Dow closed today up 36.58 at 9,398.19 and S&P500 up 6.92 at 1,012.73. Dow now stuck beneath 9405 - 9425, so that becomes its next target to conquer. Any fall below 9,200 implies more falling.

Every day that passes impresses on my mind some new fact pointing to terrible turmoil in the US economy and in society. Pull in your horns. Get your business straight. Don't leave lots of money lying around in banks. Get physical gold and silver, and get it delivered into your own hands. Hold it someplace safe, and that does not mean a bank.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Sideways to Higher Silver and Gold Prices Through August Likely

Gold Price Close Today : 950.70
Change: 4.90 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.578
Change: 24 cents or 1.7%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1242.90
Change: 3.00 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 273.40
Change: -3.00 or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.21
Change: -0.750 or -1.1%

Dow Industrial: 9,361.61
Change: 120.16 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index: 78.85
Change: -0.30 or -0.4%

The Mystic Monks of the Mysterious Monetary Shrine, a.k.a. the Federal Open Market Committee, announced their action today after meeting and eating for two days. Like the pronouncements from Delphi, it is a riddle wrapped in an enigma, or, perhaps more accurately, rotten codfish wrapped in newspaper.

What saith the Oracle? Here are the Holy Words, along with my somewhat less than holy translation:

"The Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time." Trans: we are inflating the money supply so fast that all those riding on it are liable to have their eyebrows blown off, but if we don't lie to you and tell you the opposite, there's a chance you might panic out of the dollar.

"The Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability." Trans: We are scratching the ground like a cat on concrete, but just can't get any traction. Therefore we will continue doing the same stupid things that didn't work in the 1930s and haven't worked to date, namely, inflate.

"The committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent." Translation: We are going to inflate some more, and by keeping interest rates low hope to lure more suckers into debt. We don't have a clue when we will try to raise rates, and in fact are terrified of even trying to raise them. The whole economy might lock up if we did.

"The Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 Trillion [with a T] of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities." Translation: We are going to inflate some more, and here's proof of it, pouring $1.75 trillion into the money supply by year end. We have only one strategy, and only one weapon: inflation.

Enough of this fun, what about markets today?
The GOLD PRICE rose a lazy $4.90 to close on Comex at $950.70, up, but not above $954-$955 resistance.

The SILVER PRICE rose 24 cents to $14.578 cents. Okay, okay, so far, so good, but these closes are mid-range values, not break-outs up or down, so we are still watching.

I'm still looking at two outcomes. Less likely is a surprise US Dollar rally that slows gold's final thrust through $1,000 by 3 to 6 months. More likely is sideways to higher silver and gold prices through August, with a rise to pierce $1,000 in the fall. SOMETHING needs to break out of its range to make clear which to expect.

However, long term nothing has changed. As the FOMC statement today re-iterates, the Fed has inflated, is inflating, and will inflate. Therefore the dollar will continue to decline over the long term, and silver and gold prices will continue to rise, since they are the only stable alternative currencies.

The US DOLLAR INDEX dropped 29.7 basis points, which to me wasn't large enough to say much. What's that phrase all the gurus use? "A muted response." Yeah, that's it. News that dollar interest rates are likely to stay low until palm trees grow in Greenland isn't really good news for the buck, since relative interest rates are one of the primary determinants of short term exchange rates. And of course, the rest of the FOMC's statement was merely, "Inflation, inflation, and more inflation." Yet the buck only fell 29.7 bps, and not to next support which would have been 78.33. Let's see now what a couple of days' trading does. Events have not yet foreclosed a dollar rally.

STOCKS are feeding still off a dwindling dollar, and greeted today's FOMC announcement with a cheery 120.16 upmove to Dow 9,361.61. S&P 500 jumped over the 1,000 hurdle to close at 1,005.81, up 11.46. Rally continues, and will move higher. Use this last chance to get out of stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Use Higher Stock Prices to Sell Whatever Stocks You Have Left, and Put the Proceeds Into Silver and Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 945.80
Change: 0.8 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.338
Change: -1 cents or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1241.50
Change: -10.00 or -0.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 275.60
Change: -2.00 or -0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.86
Change: 0.567 or 0.9%

Dow Industrial: 9,241.45
Change: -96.50 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index: 79.14
Change: -0.06 or -0.1%

The whole world, or the markets at least, are holding their breath before tomorrow's Federal Reserve Open Market Committee. Ho-hum. Whatever they do will have no more than passing effect.

US DOLLAR INDEX today remained essentially flat, down 5.6 basis points to 79.144. Nothing. I am still waiting to parse the dollar, whether it will rally further (and delay silver and gold) or resume its fall. Stay tuned until the Holy Monetary Monks read the sheep guts and speak their oracles.

STOCKS moved more than other markets today, with the Dow dropping 96.5 to 9,241.45. Just my gut feeling, but I think this is a shallow correction indicating buying power under the market. After all, what else can people buy, other than stocks? Most don't have enough imagination, or have been too misled and brain-washed, even to consider silver or gold. But the rally is a seducer, a Siren, a trap for bulls set by the bear. Use higher stock prices to sell whatever stocks you have left, and put the proceeds into silver and gold.

On Comex today GOLD closed up a mighty, a magnificent, eighty cents at US$945.80. Whole day was slow, with a high at 949.70 and low at 942.10. It's a wonder the floor traders didn't fall asleep on their feet.

And SILVER made big moves likewise, closing down one cent [sic] at 14.338 cents.

Tomorrow's FOMC announcement will take pressure off markets one way or the other. I know, I understand, it is repeated to me o'er and o'er that metals are in danger of falling off here, but until I see the gold price drop below 920 then 909 and the silver price below 13.75, I won't be joining their opinions.

On this day in 1860 opened the first successful US silver mine near Virginia City, Nevada. The fabled Comstock Lode between 1859 and 1911 produced 7,380,000 ounces of gold and 176,640,000 ounces of silver. You can still visit the old mines in Virginia City, near Reno.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, August 10, 2009

The Gold Price Correction Should Not/Must Not Violate US$928

Gold Price Close Today : 945.00
Change: -12.30 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.348
Change: -31.3 cents or -2.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1251.40
Change: -5.00 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 275.55
Change: 0.00 or 0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.86
Change: 0.567 or 0.9%

Dow Industrial: 9,337.95
Change: -32.12 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index: 78.04
Change: 0.46 or 0.6%

The US DOLLAR INDEX today rose 29.9 basis points to 79.219. The high was 79.395, scant points below last week's high. If the dollar exceeds that, then it begins to look as if last week's low at 77.577 was perhaps the low of the last leg down of the dollar's decline. The 50 day moving average (DMA) stands above at 79.61. Dollar must drop soon or we will be dealing with a dollar rally.

As 9,330 was Dow resistance on the way up, it becomes support on the way down. Maybe stocks have corrected enough, and will start up again tomorrow. No matter, you should be using this rally to get rid of any stocks you have left.

Harbinger to watch: the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$, the Dow measured in gold) inched up to a new high today, G$204.27 (9.881 oz.).

The Gold Price dropped today to its 50 DMA (943.26), pretty tame stuff for a correction. Today's low possibly fulfils the goal of a shallow correction. The gold price may hit US$940 - 938 tomorrow. Correction should not/must not violate US$928 support. Gold's drop came all on the open, then 944 held like a stone wall all day. Comex closed down 12.30 at US$945. Current (16:58 Central time) is US$946.90.

The Silver Price held firm at 14.30. The 50 DMA now stands at 14.10. It's hard for me to picture the silver price dropping below $14

If y'all were waiting for a dip to buy silver and gold prices, you'd better dip your toe in now.

Several readers kindly wrote in to correct me on the native pronunciation of Long Island as one word. Locals say "lawn-GUY-lan."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, August 07, 2009

Gold Price Will Pierce $1,000, Just a Matter of When

Gold Price Close Today : 957.30
Gold Price Close 24 July: 953.70
Change: 3.60 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.661
Silver Price Close 24 July: 13.933
Change: 72.80 cents or 5.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,258.50
Platinum Price Close 24 July: 1,211.40
Change: 47.100 or 3.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 274.10
Palladium Price Close 24 July: 263.00
Change: 1.050 or 0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio
Today: 65.30
Gold Silver Ratio 24 July: 68.45
Change: -3.15 or -4.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,372.49
Dow Industrial 24 July: 9,171.61
Change: 200.880 or 2.2%

US Dollar Index: 78.955
US Dollar Index 24 July: 78.317
Change: 0.638 or 0.8%

My, my, my, how events do twist and turn!

Y'all know that I am watching the US Dollar Index for a surprise rally. This week, the buck followed through downside on its weak close last week. Today it climbed back through 78.33 resistance/support to close at 78.955, up a hefty 97 basis points. What signifieth this uproar? Maybe not much. Maybe only traders closing out dollar positions so they can drink their martinis in peace out on Longisland (spoken as one word) this weekend. Or, it could mean that the dollar's plunge this week finished its long downward trek and it's ready to rally. The market will tell us next week, but I lean toward "dollar-decline-isn't-over-yet" because the dollar should have fallen at least to 76 to make the move appear complete. But the market rules, not my expectations, so I humbly await its word.

Significance my watching is that either (1) dollar will stage surprise rally and slow down silver and gold prices for three to six months, or (2) dollar will keep falling and the gold price will pierce US$1,000 early this fall. Either way, the gold price will pierce $1,000, just a matter of when.

In spite of stocks' big gains, the Dow in Gold Dollars is only barely managing to make a new high at G$202.39 (9.761 oz) against last high at G$202.15 (9.779 oz). And this comes on a day when gold has fallen smartly and stocks have rallied over 116 points. Stocks are (in short) still barely making headway against gold.

STOCKS completed a shallow correction this week and resumed their upward flight toward destiny. Now they are nearing my minimum target of 9,700, which the Dow should reach next week. Next possible target lies above 11,000, and next week will tell us whether that is possible or not. Stop thine ears to the siren's song! Heed not voices from Wall Street! Use this rally to sell any stocks you have left, and put proceeds into silver and gold.

Look at the table above and ponder silver's course this week against gold's. The Silver Price gained 72.8 cents this week (5.2%) to close at 14.661 (up 2.3 cents today). The Gold Price meanwhile rose US$3.60 or 0.4%, to close the week at US$957.30 (down $3.40 today). Now in fairness, the gold price bounced off a much higher US$970 this week, but the end of the week is the end of the week, just as the score at the end of the footbal game is the final score.

This disagreement or non-confirmation hides a very good, or a very bad, secret in its breast. The silver price is tugging higher while the gold price refuses to accompany: bad juju, sign of bad things to come. Or, in spite of gold's weakness, silver keep on rising, sign of good things to come. Are there other witnesses? Yes, the gold price has not been driven lower than 954-955 support, after three days' attack. Relative strength indicators (weekly and daily) look over bought, but MACD says, "Still plenty of room to climb." All this leaves me concluding that this has been a week of correction for gold, with silver refusing to participate. Notice that even the dollar's starchy rise today didn't stop silver.

Silver and gold dealers seem a bit nervous, a bit forward to trim inventory. That suggests caution. However, they've been burnt twice already this year at US$980, so their caution is no surprise.

Unless the dollar continues to rally, next week should see rising silver and gold prices. The gold price would become suspect if it closed below US$940, but otherwise its rally continues undiminished. I would rather buy silver and gold at lower prices, yet I would rather buy at these prices than not at all. It's just my gut feeling, but this gold market feels stout. It still has plenty of wind.

According to a Reuters item on 6 August (quoting Deutschebank) the percentage of US homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48% in 2011, from 26% in March [2009]. from 26% in March [2009].

Think about that: one out of four homeowners is underwater on their mortgages. Friends, hard times haven't even begun yet. Pay no attention to the men on the cathode ray tube, they're clueless.

Speaking of whom here's another one of their stimulus victories: Cash for Clunkers. Having exhausted the first zillion bucks congress voted, they have now voted more because this is such a great program, has sold so many cars, yak-ayak-ayak-ayak. Can these people even count? The veriest infant knows that Cash for Clunkers is only cannibalizing future sales. When tomorrow arrives, auto sales won't merely be worse than they otherwise would have been, they will vanish altogether. Yet another glorious victory of socialist economic thought, Comrades!

On this day in 1789 congress established the US War Department. In those days before George Orwell's 1984 governments were handicapped by using all sorts of truthful names for their departments. So before the days of "War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength" they called the War Dept. "the War Department" instead of the "Defense" Department. Aren't you glad we have doublethink now?

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, August 06, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Will Move Higher Still

Gold Price Close Today : 960.70
Change: -3.50 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.638
Change: -11.5 cents or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1264.00
Change: -16.00 or -1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 271.20
Change: -3.00 or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.63
Change: 0.274 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,256.26
Change: -24.71 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index: 78.04
Change: 0.46 or 0.6%

The US DOLLAR INDEX turned up today for a surprise, rallying toward the point it fell off, 78.33. It closed at 78.037, up 45.7 basis points. Tomorrow will probably reach the rest of the way toward 78.33. I have not yet made up my mind whether the outcome here will be a surprise dollar rally or continuing dollar weakness. However, I suspect the time for that dollar rally (if it comes) is not yet. Therefore I expect the dollar to move a bit higher tomorrow, and to fall next week.

STOCKS are correcting, but are such a strong updraft that they grudgingly give up only a few points a day. Still rallying.

The Gold Price gave up 3.50 today to stop at 960.70 on Comex. The Silver Price dropped 11-1/2 cents to close at 14.638.

I expected to see lower silver and gold prices today, and was not disappointed. So far, this little correction does no damage at all to the on-going rally. Silver and gold prices will move higher still.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Expect Sideways or Lower Gold Prices Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 964.20
Change: -3.30 or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.753
Change: 6.5 cents or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1288.00
Change: 13.00 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 277.35
Change: -4.00 or -1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.36
Change: -0.514 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial: 9,280.97
Change: -39.22 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index: 77.58
Change: -0.14 or -0.2%

Last three days the US DOLLAR INDEX has been bouncing off 77.5 - 77.6. Today it tried to break through that at 77.428 but failed. Tomorrow it will probably succeed.

STOCKS did not like something today. Probably need a rest after failing twice to breach 9,325 Dow. Tomorrow they should dip further, but rally remains in force.

GOLD'S floor moved up today with a 956.95 low, but it spent most of the day above 962. High was 967.92, Comex close was US$964.20, down 3.30. Expect sideways or lower gold prices tomorrow. The larger rally is still going, this is merely a small correction.

SILVER today was bound in the range 14.60 - 14.80. It just couldn't pierce 14.80. Silver could get a 3 day reaction down from here before it mounts another attack on 14.80. Comex silver closed at 14.753, up 6.5 cents.

US DOLLAR depends for its value upon confidence. Yes, it is a confidence game. What grabs my attention by the throat is how many serious people are telling me they no longer trust the US dollar and must get out of it. Friends, this is new. Never heard this before last fall. US regime is losing its core support.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Next Logical Gold Price Target, Probably Within Two Days, is US$990

Gold Price Close Today : 967.50
Change: 10.90 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.688
Change: 44.3 cents or 3.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1266.50
Change: 27.00 or 2.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 276.65
Change: 4.00 or 1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.87
Change: -1.283 or -1.9%

Dow Industrial: 9,320.19
Change: 33.63 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 77.76
Change: 0.17 or 0.2%

The Gold Price was not to be denied today, with a steady climb upward from opening bell to Comex close and beyond to 970.05, then settling down to mid US$960s support. The gold price rose 10.90 to close on Comex at 967.50. This has crushed resistance at 960, so next logical gold price target, probably within two days, is US$990. The MACD indicator shows this rally could go on for another four weeks, but the RSI looks overbought.

Climbing the same old wall of worry. I notice that I have spells of doubt -- is this really it? Crazy, but maniacal silver & gold bug that I am, my thoughts have fought every rally, all the way up. Human propensity to worry.

While the gold price rose 1.1% today, the Silver Price shot up 3.1%. Comex silver closed at 1468.8 cents, up 44.3 cents. GOLD/SILVER RATIO is dropping sharply, typical of a metals rally, but cautionary, also. Silver sometimes rises in the latter part of the rally.

I'm weighing two possible outcomes here, but let's get stocks & the dollar out of the way first.

US DOLLAR INDEX dead-cat-bounced today, up 17 basis points to 77.764. Dollar index should hit 74 before it has any chance to turn around. What I like least about this rally is that gold is rising against the US dollar only, & working sideways against the yen & euro. Ought to be rising in all three currencies for a strong, healthy rally.

STOCKS today managed to climb baby steps. Dow rose 33.63 to 9,320.19 while S&P500 gained 3.02 to 1,005.65. Rally continues. A friend today reminded me that the spring 1930 Dow rally took back 62% of the foregoing fall. A comparable rise today would take the Dow over 11,000. Don't get all wheezy on me, because it remains a SUCKER RALLY. Twill be followed by a gigantic fall.

Anyway, stocks are climbing in nominal terms, but against gold they are falling. Gives you a little different viewpoint, huh?

Two possible outcomes are (1) surprise dollar rally, and (2) no dollar rally. If we get a surprise dollar rally off, say, 74, then gold won't pierce $1,000 for 3 - 6 months. If no dollar rally ensues, the gold price will break thru $1,000 early in the fall, then run to US$1,300 very fast. Silver will be on board for the ride.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, August 03, 2009

The Gold Price Has Now Broken Above $954-$955 Resistance

Gold Price Close Today : 956.60
Change: 2.90 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.245
Change: 31.2 cents or 2.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,238.40
Change: 24.00 or 2.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 273.00
Change: 8.00 or 3.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 67.15
Change: -1.296 or -1.9%

Dow Industrial: 9,286.56
Change: 114.95 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index: 77.59
Change: -0.56 or -0.7%

The GOLD PRICE has now broken above $954-$955 resistance, which now becomes support. Gold has pointed its nose at $980 this week, unless it closes below $954.

The SILVER PRICE mirrored gold's performance today. It traded above $14.40 from 8:30 to 12:30 EDT, then -- surprise, surprise -- it fell at 12:30 to close up only 31.2 cents, fully 20 cents lower than it had been trading all day. It settled back to $14.25 - $14.30.

If, as I suspect, $14.25 becomes the new floor of support for silver, then silver has completed an upside-down head and shoulders bottoming formation. Above silver, $16.00 stands like US$1,000 above gold. Silver will move strongly higher this week.

Today the treacherous US dollar proved that last week's rise was only a sucker rally. The US DOLLAR INDEX answered all the rest of our questions today by dropping through 78.33 support to close down 56 basis points at 77.589. That lies below the 77.69 intraday low in December 2008, pointing to a rapid drop to 75.89, the Sept. 2008 intraday low. A drop through 75.89 will carry to 74 support, or, at the worst, to the May 2008 all-time low at 70.70. What a way to run a currency!
Bernanke, Paulson, and Geithner ought to be issued mops and buckets and put to work doing a job suited to their peculiar talents.

STOCKS today rose sharply. The Dow climbed 114.95 to close at 9,286.56, and the S&P500 rose 15.15 to close above one thousand at 1,002.63. Dow will no doubt reach 9,700 on this rally. All sorts of gurus and hungry stock brokers will be crowing this up as a new bull market. Listen not, neither harken to their empty blandishments! Sell stocks and roll the proceeds into silver and gold. This really is your last chance.

It arrests my attention that the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) fell today, in spite of a 115 point rise in stocks. More, the DiG$ cannot pierce G$202 (9.772 oz). Face is, stocks are struggling to hold its own against gold -- and losing.

From 8:30 a.m. to nearly 12:30 p.m. Eastern time, gold stayed above $960. Then it dipped abruptly, suddenly, deeply, for the Comex close, and bounced back over $960. About 1:30 p.m. it fell to the $956 - $958 range. Now I'm not saying that was manipulated, but it certainly looked funny, and shows how little it's worth to watch the Comex close alone. Besides, even if the Nice Government Men didn't meddle in gold (and we know they do) the black shirts who trade on the Comex floor are going to help their own, and after a strong up day let it trade down enough to let their caught-short buddies out with a little skin left.

In any event, a Comex close that shows gold up only $2.90, when most of the day it traded up six or seven dollars, leaves a false impression of the day, and of gold's strength. They're cooking the books.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.