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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Yesterday May Have Marked Correction Lows for the Gold Price ($985)

Gold Price Close Today : 1008.00
Change: 14.90 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.636
Change: 0.480 or 3.0%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1288.10
Change: 15.00 or 1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 295.60
Change: 7.00 or 2.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.59
Change: -0.878 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,711.60
Change: -30.60 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index: 76.74
Change: -0.34 or -0.4%

Today the GOLD PRICE closed at US$1,008.00, up $14.90 while the silver price closed up 48 cents at 16.636 cents.

Yesterday may have marked correction lows for gold ($985) and silver ($15.97). Given their performance today, it appears so. Yet this is a chancy call, because both metals must exceed their previous peaks at $1,025 and $17.60 to confirm that the rally has resumed. As long as there are no closes below $985 and 15.97, uptrend continues.

It seems that the gold price has broken through $1,000, then made a classic touchback to $985, roughly the point of breakout, and turned up again.

Looking at the chart from Friday through today, STOCKS appear to have rolled over and headed down. Today began with a drop from 9,750 to 9,600, but by noon -- thanks no doubt to strong mystery buying, wink, wink at the Nice Government Men -- the Dow closed above 9,700 at 9,711.60, down only 30.6 points. In the aftermarket it is trying to fall through 9,700.

The US DOLLAR INDEX yesterday bounced off 77.30 and closed about 76.80. Today it continued to fall, rallied briefly to 77 where the market slapped its jaws. Trading now at 76.74, down 0.344. Last five day's chart pattern looks like a correction, not a rally.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, September 29, 2009

We May Get 4 - 6 Weeks of Sideways Gold Trading, Bound by 980 and 1050

Gold Price Close Today : 993.10
Change: 0.60 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.156
Change: -17 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,263.10
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 286.55
Change: -2.00 or -0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.47
Change: 0.102 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,742.20
Change: -47.16 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index: 77.05
Change: 0.13 or 0.2%

Think of life with Ben Bernanke at the money supply helm as driving with a drunk. He mashes the accelerator to the floor and you scream, "Slow down!" He responds by slamming on the brakes. "No, not that!" you cry, so he mashes the accelerator to the floor again.

Last fall he flooded the system with new money (to save his and Paulson's buddies in the banks, but that's another story). Then he slammed on the brakes early this year, so now the money supply's growth is no longer growing. First inflation, then the deflation scare, to which he responds with more inflation. Note closely that he never really deflates, but always inflates, and thus it will ever be. As Steve Saville of speculative-investor.com comments, the Fed exists to manage inflation expectations, not to manage inflation. They are always going to inflate, but to keep everyone from catching on to the game, from time to time they and their media monkeys pump up a deflation scare.

If you understand all this, you grasp where we sit right now. The dollar is rallying, largely because Bernanke is not inflating fast enough. His response will be -- more inflation. But 'twixt now and then, deflation will be the rage. Since SILVER and GOLD PRICES have been rising primarily against the US Dollar, that will slow their rise. However,technically both metals have already fulfilled a 38% correction, sufficient for the preceding rise. If the GOLD PRICE breaks $950, it means not that the bull market is over, but that we will spend numerous months in sideways trading. On the other hand, if the dollar rallies but gold refuses to go below US$975, then we may get 4 - 6 weeks of frustrating sideways trading, bound by 980 and 1,050. Either way, the deadlock will end with gold and silver prices shooting up.

The SILVER PRICE is confirming gold's solidness, remaining above $16.00. Low today was $15.97 (gold's low was $985.42). That's positive, but expect the gold/silver ratio to rise more, which implies mathematically either a lower silver price with gold steady, or higher gold and silver steady.

US DOLLAR INDEX today stands at 77.049, up 13 basis points and continuing its rally. Expect the scrofulous dollar to keep on rising, bit by bit, at least to 78, the 50 DMA.

The rally in STOCKS surely is not long for this world. It has nearly reached the 50% level, has lasted since last spring, and is moving to the deadly seasonal spot. I hope you have taken advantage of this rally by selling your remaining stocks. Or, if you just want to keep on losing money, hold on to them.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, September 28, 2009

Expect Silver and Gold Prices to Show New All-Time Highs by Mid-November

Gold Price Close Today : 992.50
Change: 2.30 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.173
Change: 13.5 or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,286.00
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 287.75
Change: -2.00 or -0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.37
Change: -0.373 or -0.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,789.36
Change: 124.17 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index: 76.94
Change: 0.35 or 0.5%

While I was vacationing 14 - 26 Sept. the GOLD PRICE muscled through US$1,000 to a new all time high above $1,020. Now it is correcting that run up (from $905) but should not sink lower than US$980, perhaps US$975 on a spike. This move ought not to last beyond the end of this week. A close below US$975 would change the outlook altogether. That's the technical picture.

Blowing a headwind against gold's course, the Federal Reserve, those Nice Government Men, are not inflating fast enough to keep the money supply growing. Of course that pushes the scrofulous US Dollar higher. Technically, the Dollar Index has completed a downleg and should now correct that previous downleg by rallying, maybe as high as the 50 day moving average (today about 78). None of this alters the longer term outlook for the scrofulous dollar, or for SILVER and GOLD PRICES. Long term the dollar is headed for the junk heap of debased currencies, and silver and gold prices are headed so much higher that if I mention numbers y'all would have me arrested for a lunatic and fit me for one of those jackets with sleeves that tie in the back.

The SILVER PRICE rode the roller coaster up with gold,reaching above $17.50. I've been telling y'all that silver will rise much faster than gold, and this was another example. Since it is a smaller market, the silver price is always more volatile, on the downside as well as the upside. Silver's correction might carry as low as $15.50, but not much further.

Today the silver price closed at $16.173, up 13.5 cents, while the gold price rose US$2.30 to US$992.50. I expect both markets to bottom by the end of next week, but from there they may spend as long as 4 - 6 weeks working sideways before they break out upwards. I expect both metals to show new all-time highs by mid-November.

STOCKS, proxied by the Dow, speak with forkéd tongue. Hard to read that chart, but I would guess the Dow will work higher before it collapses later this fall. Fall has whacked the Dow 7 out of the last 9 years. Not much to look forward to, but if y'all still have stocks left, even in an IRA or 401(k) or in mutual funds, sell them now.

Susan & I returned from vacation Saturday night,
and it was wonderful. Read my daughter Liberty's
version at this web address:
http://16ballsintheair.blogspot.com/2009/09/alternate-reality.html
There are also pictures there, including one of the
entire Moneychanger family, less two sons & families.
After the beach at Fripp Island, Susan & I drove to
Charleston, then to Columbia for my speech. You
can purchase DVDs & MP3s at
www.BackToMainStreet.com. Name of the
speech is "Surviving Depression & Reviving
Local Economies." After Columbia Susan & I
worked our way to Cowpens & Kings Mountain
battlegrounds, through North Carolina, & on to
a church meeting in Lynchburg, Virginia. Wonderful
as it was, I am very glad to be home in Tennessee.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, September 11, 2009

Highest Weekly Gold Price Close in History

Gold Price Close Today : 1,004.90
Gold Price Close September 4th: 995.80
Change: 9.10 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.676
Silver Price Close September 4th: 16.268
Change: 40.80 or 2.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,319.00
Platinum Price Close September 4th: 1,258.00
Change: 61.000 or 4.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 291.50
Palladium Price Close September 4th: 295.00
Change: -3.500 or -1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.26
Gold Silver Ratio September 4th: 61.21
Change: -0.95 or -1.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,605.41
Dow Industrial September 4th: 9,441.27
Change: 164.140 or 1.7%

US Dollar Index: 76.608
US Dollar Index September 4th: 78.136
Change: -1.528 or -2.0%

Today the GOLD PRICE made its highest Comex close in history at US$1,004.90, up $9.50 for the day. It has taken gold a week to get through the resistance, but I believe it has now succeeded.

The gold price opened at $999.65, quickly made a low at $997.15, then climbed straight for the ceiling and never again traded below US$1,000.

This is it. Unless the gold price closes Monday below US$1,000, this is the Big Breakout, and will lead to a gold rise of at least $250 an ounce. Assuming we get that over-one-thousand-dollar-close on Monday, you cannot wait longer. This is the gold breakout you must buy or be left behind. Once gold settles itself over US$1,000 with a two day close, it will never trade under US$1,000 again.

This week (yesterday, actually) the SILVER PRICE traded back to $16.00 for the last time,kissing that mark good-bye forever. Silver's high today was $16.97, the low $16.61, but was knocking on the $17.00 ceiling all day. The Comex close at $16.6760 (up only 2.6 cents) really distorts today's results, because most of the day silver traded around $16.80, and is trading there yet.

Everything I said for gold applies all the more strongly to silver. I did some measuring on the silver price chart today and got numbers so outlandish that I'm not going to repeat them because y'all won't believe them -- not yet, anyway.

The GOLD/SILVER ratio is about to drop very fast. I'm looking to trade silver for gold at 51, but that's only a first approximation. Let it take a week or two to trade, and we'll see then.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS has turned down. Gold is about to outshine stocks blindingly.

The US DOLLAR lost 153 basis points this week. It has closed below 78.33 and 77.50 support, the last stopping point. Next logical stop is 74.50.

STOCKS seem to be forming an rising wedge, the worst possible juju. Twill fall like your keys out of your pocket when you lean over a well.

On this day in 1789 Alexander Hamilton was appointed first Secretary of the Treasury. He and his tribe have become the Paulsons and Geithners and Bernankes of our day, wanting to control all the economy for the benefit of their cronies. Too bad Washington didn't see it in Hamilton.

Really there are only two strains in American politics, and always have been only two: Hamiltonian and Jeffersonian. The one wants a central bank, government subsidies to special interests, and government control of the economy. The other favours agriculture, small holders, and a widespread dispersion of wealth.

Y'all already know which one works for you, and which one doesn't.

On Monday, 21 September 2009 at 6:00 p.m. I will be speaking in Columbia, South Carolina on "Surviving the Depression and Reviving Local Economies." Location will be
Columbia Conference Center
(803) 772-9811
169 Laurelhurst Ave.
Columbia, South Carolina 29210
You can make reservations at www.backtomainstreet.com/frankiln_sanders_temp.htm.
Y'all come!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, September 10, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices Remain Strong

Gold Price Close Today : 995.30
Change: -2.60 or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.443
Change: 10.50 or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1286.00
Change: -11.50 or -0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 290.90
Change: -1.85 or -0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.53
Change: 0.008 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 9,627.48
Change: 80.26 or 0.8%

US Dollar Index: 76.82
Change: -0.20 or -0.3%

The GOLD PRICE climbed steadily all day to close up a dime at US$995.40. I'm not sure the NY Forex chart I am looking at is accurate, because it looks like there's an artifact on the chart, a trade down to a low of $980.85. That was the low or $983, but either way that potentially suffices to meet my correction target. If I'm a little early, gold will see a weak day tomorrow, with a low in the mid to low $970s.

The SILVER PRICE rose 20.7 cents to close at $16.65 on the Comex. Silver's low today was $16.03, so you can see that it fought much more than 20.7 cents up from that hole. SILVER and GOLD PRICES remain strong, but this is an unstable situation. Metals must turn around and pull up soon. I regret I won't be here next week to watch.

The US DOLLAR INDEX kept on falling, down another 20 basis points to 76.82. STOCKS are enjoying it, though. The S&P500 climbed 10.77 points to close at 1,044.14, while the Dow rose 80.26 to 9,627.48. Rising wedge formation, such as is forming, resolves to the downside.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, September 09, 2009

The Gold Price Must Not Show a Deep Correction Here

Gold Price Close Today : 995.30
Change: -2.60 or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.443
Change: 4.5 cents or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1275.50
Change: -11.50 or -0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 292.75
Change: -4.25 or -1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.53
Change: 0.008 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 9,547.22
Change: 49.88 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index: 76.99
Change: -0.29 or -0.4%

Today the GOLD PRICE backed off slightly, down $2.60 to US$995.30. Low was US$986.95. The daily chart shows gold rallying from $996 in a rounding top through the day, then dropping off at 2:00 p.m. Right now it's trading at $992.50.

This is no surprise, it is merely a correction rolling out. Yet I remain persuaded that gold must not show a deep correction here, not below $975 or so. The low close is liable to be $980 - $982, maybe with an intraday plunge toward $975. I still do not believe it will break $970.

Before the US markets opened the bears and shorts hit silver hard, but couldn't drive the SILVER PRICE below $16.20. Then it formed a huge dome, a rounding top, and fell back to $16.30ish by 2:00. On Comex silver closed at $16.443, down 4.5 cents, but it's trading right now at $16.3250.

Part of the answer to the metal's relentless advance in the last two weeks came out yesterday from Barrick, world's largest gold mining company. They announced they would buy back their five billion worth of gold hedges (forward sales) and sell $3 bn in stock to raise the money. Looks as if they were rather clumsily buying back the hedge, driving up the market. But they didn't say that, I'm just guessing their buying contributed much to gold demand. Apparently they haven't finished covering the shorts yet, and they will take a $5.6 billion loss on covering them.

Who is Barrick? 'Twas a gold mining star of the 1980s, put together from nothing, and then in the 1990s they discovered hedging their production, i.e., selling it before it was mined to lock in a price for future delivery. Maybe this was logic, or maybe it was co-operation -- we'll never know, but 'tis coincidental that about the time Barrick loaded on the hedges, the gold cartel (Nice Government Men and their running dog lackeys the bullion banks, chiefly Goldman Sachs) was manipulating gold downward. Mining companies forward sales certainly didn't hurt their effort.

Anyway, with gold about to breach $1,000, the game's over. They lost. Looks like partnership with government isn't all it's cracked up to be. This follows exactly The Moneychanger's Law Of Government Largesse: "All government money comes with a sock in the jaw."

The US DOLLAR INDEX continues to confirm its breakdown, falling another 29 basis points today to 76.988. The world trusteth not the scrofulous dollar.

Stocks edged up again. Dow rose 49.88 to close at 9,547.22 while S&P500 rose 7.98 to 1,033.37. Somewhere along here stocks are going to offer a spectacular shorting opportunity, but not yet.

On Monday, 21 September 2009 at 6:00 p.m. I will be speaking in Columbia, South Carolina on "Surviving the Depression and Reviving Local Economies." Location will be
Columbia Conference Center
(803) 772-9811
169 Laurelhurst Ave.
Columbia, South Carolina 29210
You can make reservations at www.backtomainstreet.com/frankiln_sanders_temp.htm.
Y'all come!


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, September 08, 2009

The Gold Price Must Pierce US$1,000, or Fail Miserably

Gold Price Close Today : 997.90
Change: 3.00 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.488
Change: 22.5 cents or 1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1287.00
Change: 24.00 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 297.00
Change: 3.00 or 1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.52
Change: -0.653 or -1.1%

Dow Industrial: 9,497.34
Change: 56.07 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 77.29
Change: -0.74 or -0.9%

When I walked in this morning, the GOLD PRICE was already over US$1,000 and the SILVER PRICE at $16.80. It backed off reluctantly, closed up only 3 on Comex at $US$997.90, then climbed back to US$1,000 + in the aftermarket, where it still sits. Gold's high came at US$1,007.50.

The SILVER PRICE hit a high of $16.81 today, then closed at Comex up 22.5 cents at $16.4880. It's trading now at $16.58.

Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES have run a long ways and need to stop and breathe. My friend Bob the Technical Genius called today and opined that gold would probably back off to the low $980s tomorrow or next day, then take off. He and I agree about one thing: gold must not fail here. A friend told me about gurus on Bloomberg this morning babbling that gold might pull back to $950 before clearing $1,000. Hogwash. Gold has huge momentum, this is its third attack on $1,000, and markets don't make triple tops. Gold must pierce US$1,000, or fail miserably and fall very far. There's no indifference, no make-up-your-mind dancing here, only clear the bar or die.

Right here SILVER and GOLD PRICES are very much overbought, but strength is still there. The public is selling as much as buying, a very good sign. Oh, gold might spend a few days or a week crawling on the ceiling here, but it cannot correct US$50, it must advance.

As if to answer our questions, the US DOLLAR INDEX fell through 78.33 resistance, and then kept on falling, clean through 77.50 to a low of 77.047 today. Right now it's trading down 73.5 basis points at 77.289. No more confirmation necessary: dollar is headed down.

STOCKS refuse to drop and continue edging upwards. Dow added 56.07 today to close at 9,497.34. S&P gained 8.99 to close at 1,025.39. Stay out of stocks. Any further rally should be used as an opportunity to sell the rest of any stocks you hold, including those in IRAs or 401(k)s.

Our office will be closed from 14th September through 18 September for a family vacation. There will be a skeleton crew here consisting of one skeleton. The regular crew will replace the skeletons on 19 September.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, September 04, 2009

Silver and Gold Prices are Just Starting their Most Explosive Upmoves

Gold Price Close Today : 995.80
Gold Price Close August 28: 957.00
Change: 38.80 or 4.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.268
Silver Price Close August 28: 14.784
Change: 148.40 cents or 10.0%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,258.00
Platinum Price August 28: 1,245.30
Change: 12.700 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 295.00
Palladium Price August 28 : 287.80
Change: 7.200 or 2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.21
Gold Silver Ratio August 28: 64.73
Change: 3.52 or -5.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,441.27
Dow Industrial August 28: 9,544.20
Change: -102.930 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index: 78.136
US Dollar Index August 28: 78.366
Change: -0.230 or -0.3%

Although the US Dollar Index has not confirmed a fall by closing below 77.50, it lost 23 basis points this week and closed today beneath 78.33 support. The relatively small fall in the dollar does not justify the large rises in silver and gold prices, so something else is driving metals up. Notice that silver and gold prices are rising against ALL fiat currencies, not only the scrofulous US dollar.





Let me get stocks out of the way. Today stocks rose fairly strongly. The Dow rose 96.66 to close at 9,441.27, losing 102.93 points for the week. S&P closed up 13.16 at 1,06.46, down 12.47 for the week. I'm guessing stocks have one more leg up in their rebound rally from the great fall, but one way or the other, I don't want to own stocks. Stay away from them, they're locked in a bear market and have another 80% to lose against silver and gold prices.

SILVER and GOLD performed with breath-taking strength this week. The Gold Price rose $38.80 (4.1%) to close the week at US$995.80. Plainly next week GOLD will be hammering on $1,000's gate. It may fall back a bit, even as far as 981, to get a running start, but it will most likely pierce US$1,000 this next week.

SILVER rose 148.4 cents this week, 10%, to close the week at 16.268, a new high since last November's bottom at 880 cents. That's right, do that math: silver stands at 185% of its November low. What is most amazing is that 120 cents of that rise came in two days' trading this week.

Cowardice makes me want to hedge what I say, or maybe that's experience, but look at this: the silver price did not rise 120 cents after running through a long rally. Oh, no, it traded into a long triangle in a 10 month correction, then made that huge gain in two days breaking out of a triangle. Gold behaves similarly.

That argues that this rally is only beginning, and not about to end. Now this might be the bull trap to end all bull traps, but logic and the chart says silver and gold prices are just starting their most explosive upmoves. Once the gold prices passes $1,000.00 with a consecutive two-day close over that number, it will never trade below $1,000 again. And silver will tag right along for the ride.

Next week metals may correct, giving y'all a single last chance to buy. Once the gold price closes above $1,000, just buy. It will run away.

Dow in Silver Ounces fell below 600 this week, so it's starting another big move. And the gold/silver ratio dropped 4.6% to close below 62 at 61.2

Please note that our office will be closed on 14 September through 18 September for a family vacation.

On Monday, 21 September 2009 at 6:00 p.m. I will be speaking in Columbia, South Carolina on "Surviving the Depression & Reviving Local Economies." Location will be Columbia Conference Center (803) 772-9811 169 Laurelhurst Ave. Columbia, South Carolina 29210 Y'all are welcome to come join us.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, September 03, 2009

You are Probably Watching the Last Days of Gold Below US$1,000 -- Forever

Gold Price Close Today : 993.80
Change: 16.20 or 1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.135
Change: 79.5 cents or 5.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,344.61
Change: 63.94 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index: 78.44
Change: 0.05 or 0.1%

The great H.L. Hunt said, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." I'm as delighted as any other silver bug right now, but let's keep our heads screwed on.

In the past two (2) days, the GOLD PRICE has risen US$40.30; the SILVER PRICE has risen $1.20. Quite literally, gold is knocking on the US$1,000 door.

What impresses me about this? These rises have occurred not at the top of a long-time movement, but upon breakout from a triangle. The furious moves show not a rally ending, but a rally beginning. Volume is strong, confirming the breakout. (Check "color volume" beneath the GLD and SLV charts. Note the gaps up on both charts.)





After two such strong days, 'twouldn't surprise me that silver and gold prices backed off tomorrow, only to resume their advance on Monday.

Today gold closed on Comex up $16.20 at US$993.80. Silver rose 79.5 cents to end on Comex at $16.135.

GOLD'S next move must be to cross US$1000. That sets up a climb to US$1,325. SILVER has climbed above its 2 June 2009 high at $15.945, and
closed over $16.00. It has crossed above the downtrend line from last June. It is set up to run, so get out of the way.

Add fuel to the fire. Gold has plainly broken out upside in Euros. In Yen it has not yet broken out, but has turned up strongly and is close to breaking out. Indicators have turned up. Point is, this metals rally has not been sparked by a falling dollar, but hints to be a rally against all fiat currencies.

Unless the US dollar blindsides gold with a rally, you are probably watching the last days of gold below US$1,000 -- forever.

The dollar, in fact, rose a bit today up 5.3 basis points to 78.437. The dollar index has traded into a tight triangle. A close below 78 will be fatal, a close above 79 could lead to a rally. However, the silver and gold markets are signalling that they know something the currency markets don't yet know.

Meanwhile the gold/silver ratio has acted precisely as it should, falling from 63.526 three days ago to 61.592 today. And the Dow in Gold Dollars has collapsed from G$208 (10.031 oz) to G$194.38 (9.375 oz). Are y'all beginning to understand why I keep recommending y'all buy more silver than gold?

STOCKS made good their losses today. Dow rose 63.94 to 9,344.61, and S&P500 climbed over 1,000 to clsoe at 1,003.24, up 8.49. Stay out of stocks. Watch from a distance. Sell any you still have, other than precious metals stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Gold is Now On The Short Road to $1,000

Gold Price Close Today : 978.80
Change: 24.10 or 2.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.440
Change: 40.5 cents or 2.7%

Dow Industrial: 9,280.67
Change: -29.93 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index: 78.00
Change: 0.58 or 0.7%

As I said yesterday, somebody had to give way today, and it was NOT silver and gold.

The GOLD PRICE burst its bonds with a vengeance. It gapped up at the opening (leaving a "runaway gap"), fought sideways around $965, then once through $965 jumped another $10. Closed on Comex at $978.80, up $24.10. Now it is trading at $978 - $980. Tomorrow I would be comforted to see it close above $980. Checking GLD the gold ETF today shows volume jumped from about 8 million shares to about 25 million today, confirming the breakout.

Not to be outdone by gold, the SILVER PRICE jumped 40.5 cents to close on Comex at $15.44. It might encounter a little resistance at $15.50, but $16.00 remains the big target. A cross above $16.00 will send silver shooting rapidly toward $18.00.

What might gainsay my interpretation of upside gold and silver price breakouts? Only gold falling below $955 and silver falling under $14.80. No, I believe gold is now on the short road to $1,000.

Yesterday the US DOLLAR INDEX jumped up when it crossed 78.4, and today it crashed down to and through 78.4. This looks like the Nice Government Men goosing a bunch of jittery shorts, then being met by a solid wall of selling beyond their power to throw back. Another interpretation is that today's fall is a touchback to point of upside breakout. Dollar index still must close below 78.33 and then 77.50 to confirm a breakdown. Today it closed at 78.394, down 32.6 basis points.

STOCKS today fell, the Dow 29.93 points to 9,280.67 and the S&P500 3.29 points to 994.75. Stocks are correcting right now, but I am not certain they will not yet climb once again before the whole rally ends.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, September 01, 2009

Strong Performance for Gold and Silver Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 952.40
Change: 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.985
Change: 8.7 cents or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,310.60
Change: -185.68 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index: 78.72
Change: 0.58 or 0.7%

This was one bewildering day.

First, the US DOLLAR INDEX broke out of the tight triangle it had traded into, upwards. At this point, though, you have to wonder if this isn't just another fake-out, to be followed tomorrow by another fall to 78. The dollar index rose as high as 78.94, but as I write has dropped to 78.724, up 57.6 points. Market was flat until 11, when it crossed above 78.4 and shot up. To confirm, dollar tomorrow must cross above its 50 day moving average at 79.15. At the very least, it must gain tomorrow, and meatily, not a basis point or two. Top boundary of the larger triangle (mid-July to now) lies about 79.40. A close above 79.40 would certainly mark an upside breakout into a dollar rally.

Second, since the dollar rallied, SILVER and GOLD PRICES
must have fallen, right? Nope. The GOLD PRICE closed up 70 cents to $952.40 at Comex close, but added another $4.30 in the aftermarket, and now stands at $956.70. The SILVER PRICE rose 8.7 cents on Comex to close at $14.985. After Comex closed it promptly climbed over $15.00, and now trades at $15.06. Strong performance for both, but better for silver. Gold must not lag tomorrow, but must keep grinding toward $961. If silver remains above $15.00, it ought to run higher.

But wait, wait! What about the dollar rallying? Well, what about it? Seems that today the dollar only hurt stocks. The Dow peeled off 185.68 points to close at 9,310.60. Worse, the weaker S&P500 fell 22.58 to close at 998.04, below psychologically important 1,000 mark. Further downside lies in store for stocks.

What bringeth the morrow? I haven't a clue, but don't expect the dollar to rally hand in hand with silver and gold prices. Somebody has to give way here.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.