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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The Gold Price Low of $1,025.70 Today Might be a Double Bottom

Gold Price Close Today : 1,029.90
Change: -4.80 or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.231
Change: -30.0 or -1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,302.60
Change: -12.00 or -0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 316.00
Change: -13.00 or -4.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.45
Change: -12.00 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial: 9,762.69
Change: -119.48 or -1.2%

US Dollar Index: 76.48
Change: 0.34 or 0.4%

The GOLD PRICE dipped as low as $1,025.70 today, and at 1:00 p.m. and 5:30 p.m. bottomed about the same place. That might be a double bottom. I reckon that's the whole downside plunge, with perhaps a spike tomorrow to $1,020 followed by a higher close. A close below $1,018 would gainsay that interpretation. The gold price today dropped $4.80 to $1,029.90.

The SILVER PRICE must climb through $16.40 to $16.50 to confirm that it has bottomed, but this level is about as low as I expect it to drop. Low today was $16.06. Silver closed down 30 cents at $16.2310, down $1.48 in three days. As I always say, 'tis more volatile on the upside, but on the downside as well.

Stocks sank today like your slack-jawed grandpa's upper plate that time he looked over into the well. Point of no return is a break below 9,450, but stocks will look bad sick if the Dow closed below 9,600. Dow today fell 119.48 to 9,762.69. S&P dropped 20.78 to 1,042.63.

The US Dollar Index has risen five days running, some kind of record
over the past year. Till now that's always resulted in a peak and fall. Most likely target remains 76.38, the 50 DMA, or maybe 77. Dollar index today rose 34 basis points to 76.476.
I hate to leave y'all when the markets are as roiled as they are right now, but I have to travel on Thursday and Friday, so this will be the last y'all hear from me this week. God willing, I'll return on Monday. Anyhow, the bottom ought to be posted by Friday's close.

I was out of the office half the day to go visit a friend having brain surgery in Nashville. He had a walnut-sized malignant tumour (glioblastoma)removed, and is recovering well. His name is Stan Poston. I already know what efficient pray-ers y'all are, so I am bold to impose on you again and ask y'all to pray for Stan's complete recovery.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Farthest Silver and Gold Prices Might Yet Fall is to $16.00 and $1,020

Gold Price Close Today : 1034.70
Change: -7.40 or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.531
Change: -0.553 or -3.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1315.00
Change: -24.00 or -1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 327.50
Change: -4.00 or -1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.59
Change: -0.427 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 9,882.17
Change: -14.21 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index: 76.15
Change: 0.15 or 0.2%

Let us talk of crookedness and crooks Embezzelers that cook the books, And option sellers who use their hooks To drive the price down for us schnooks.

Yes, fellow sufferers, today was options expiration day, so "somebody" found it necessary, expedient, and profitable to drive down silver and gold prices so that the call options they had sold didn't come a cropper and cost them money. As insurance companies are made to collect premiums and not to pay claims, so option sellers are in business to sell options, not to pay off when they make good. Hence it doeth them much good when prices can be driven down on options expiry so that all those call options they've sold expire worthless. It saves them so much money.

Here's what I mean. At Comex close, which is the price basis for gold and silver options, gold closed down $7.40 at $1,034.70 and silver closed at 16.531, down 55.3 cents. Yet in the aftermarket gold has risen over $5 and silver over 20 cents. Yeah, just a lucky coincidence for all those folks who sold options, right? And won't it be even more fascinating if today proves to be the low for silver and gold? More on that below.

What makes the larceny all the more obvious is the US dollar index's stingy performance today, up 14.6 bps to 76.153. That's not enough gain to move horsefeathers, much less the silver and gold markets, but there 'tis. Still expect the dollar index to hit its 50 DMA at least, 76.88 or even 77.

STOCKS were confused today. Dow rose 14.21 to 9,882.17 while S&P500 fell 3.54 to 1,063.41. Other indices fell. Confusion suggests the down move might be finished and stocks turning around. Still watching for one last push up to 10,375, the 50% correction.

Believe it or not, 'tis just barely possible today was the bottom in silver and gold. Farthest silver and gold prices might yet fall is to 16.00 and $1,020. As I've been saying, my interpretation is all wrong if they close below those points. I've been expecting a low in place by 30 October latest, because that's when the high is due in the Gold/Silver ratio, and the ratio usually peaks about the same time both metals bottom. By Friday, I want to have all my buying done.

I still have a few Mexican two and 2.5 pesos, 5 pesos, and Dutch 10 guilders available priced like one ounce coins. First come, first served.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, October 26, 2009

The Long Expected Gold and Silver Price Correction Arrived Today.

Gold Price Close Today : 1,042.10
Change: -13.50 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.084
Change: -62.7 or -3.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,330.50
Change: -28.00 or -2.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 331.95
Change: -3.60 or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.00
Change: -0.768 or -1.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,867.96
Change: -104.22 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index: 76.01
Change: 0.53 or 0.7%

The correction I have long expected arrived today in GOLD and SILVER PRICES.

Had y'all been watching the GOLD PRICE trade today, you would have seen it trade up to $1,059.80 at 10:00 a.m., then waterfall down to $1,040 by 1:00 p.m. Today's low came at $1,035.80, but I never saw it that low. Comex closed $1,042.10, down $13.50 at 12:30 Eastern time. In the aftermarket the gold price is trading at $1,037.90.

The SILVER PRICE closed on Comex down 62.7 cents at $17.084. Low today has been $16.98, and 'tis now trading at $17.084. Silver's track paralleled gold, dropping from $17.77 at 10:00 to $16.98 by 1:00. It has traded sideways to higher since.

One thing you learn about trading is "Buy your targets." When silver or gold fall to prices you forecast they would reach, you have to squelch your fear and buy. $17.00 and $1,040 have been my longstanding targets, so tomorrow I start buying. Recall and ponder the old market proverb, "Bears get rich, and bulls get rich, but pigs get slaughtered." Low should be posted by Friday, 30 October, so if you were planning to buy on a correction, this is your week.

After bumping along 75.30 the dollar index traded through 75.40 around 10:00 and must have hit a bunch of buy stops, because it rose straight up like your little girl's helium balloon, leaving a runaway gulp. It ran out of steam at 76.118, and has since traded down near 76.

All I can say is, "I told y'all so." When everybody in the world has shorted dollars, nobody's left to sell more, so the next price move has to be up. There's lots of resistance at 76, and all the way to 77.50. One possible target, the 50 day moving average, stands now at 76.95. Another, the 200 DMA, soars above at 81.54.

STOCKS have not yet tipped their hand. Dow today lost another 104.22 points to end at 9,867.96; S&P lost 12.65 to close 1,066.95. Long as the Dow holds on to 9,800, maybe 9,700 most, it still has a chance to make one last thrust to 10,375. Otherwise, make that motion where you draw your thumb like a knife across your throat.

Keep this in mind: the dollar rally is temporary, the dollar rally is temporary, the dollar rally is temporary. Grab this opportunity to buy silver and gold on sale. By the way, I bought a lot of cheap Mexican two and 2.5 pesos today, and some Dutch 10 guilders. Call us if you are interested and please mention goldprice.org. (888)218-9226; (931)766-6066

Thursday and Friday this week I will be travelling, so will not publish daily commentaries those days.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, October 23, 2009

If The Gold Price Means to Trade Lower, It Must do so Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1,055.60
Gold Price Close October 16: 1,050.70
Change: 4.90 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.711
Silver Price Close October 16: 17.405
Change: 30.60 or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,358.50
Platinum Price Close October 16: 1,341.70
Change: 16.800 or 1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 335.55
Palladium Price Close October 16: 330.65
Change: 4.900 or 1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.37
Gold Silver Ratio October 16: 59.60
Change: -0.77 or -1.3%

Dow Industrial: 9,972.18
Dow Industrial October 16: 9,995.91
Change: -23.730 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 75.477
US Dollar Index October 16: 75.615
Change: -0.138 or -0.2%

Although SILVER and GOLD PRICES have been trading sideways, both managed to gain a bit this week. Dollar index lost a little but basically closed the week flat. After rising much higher, stocks fell back lower than they ended last week.

The GOLD PRICE continues to hold on stubbornly above$1,050+. Either it is consolidating for another run-up, or topping. It has built an even-sided triangle with a base from $1,070 to $1,035. Even-sided triangles blow out of both sides of their mouths. A downside drop would fall toward $1,020, upside escape (close above $1,065) leads to $1,300 gold. Right, I know it looks crazy. The weekly chart ends all arguments: the gold price has broken out upside over long term resistance. I am expecting a low by 30 October, so if gold means to trade lower, must do so next week. Watch $1,065 resistance and support kicking in around $1,040. If gold closes below $1,018, it proves that I am all wet and gold intends to drop much lower.

The gold price closed on Comex today down 2.20 at $1,055.60.

Silver's weekly chart shows a different face. The SILVER PRICE has broken out above its downtrend line, but not above a long time high like gold (over $1,000). Like gold, silver is somewhat overbought, but that can keep up a long while. Yes, this sideways trading is frustrating, but we simply must wait for the silver price to declare itself: a close below $17.20 takes silver to $16.80, a close above $18.00 much higher.

The silver price closed up today, gold down --- confusion is evident. The silver price closed today at $17.711, up 18.1 cents.

What is the scrofulous US Dollar doing all this time? Dollar Index looks oversold, but not outrageously. Dollar index made a stand this week at 75, and rose today 42.2 basis points to 75.477. Meanwhile the 50 day moving average (81.99) has rolled over downward and will soon drop through the 200 DMA (81.48). Momentum is clearly downward, with only the faintest hint of a turnaround this week. "Failure to drop to the center of the earth" doesn't really qualify as "strength."

Dollar is presently the focus of the smart guys' "dollar carry trade" where speculators borrow dollars (near zero interest and steadily dropping), sell them, and put proceeds into hot markets like stocks, oil, silver or gold. That sets up gold for a double whammy: dollar sellers get caught short if dollar rises, panic and try to cover shorts in a rising market. Faster dollar rises, faster they throw stocks, oil, gold, silver, etc. on the fire.

But that spiral hasn't shown itself yet.

Dow rose this week 96.28 on Monday, dropped 50.51 on Tuesday, dropped 92.12 on Wednesday, rose 131.95 Thursday, and dropped 109.13 today to close the week at 9,972, down 24 points for the week. Tons of buying power has been burnt up without success. Does all that up and down suggest indecision to y'all? Ought to. Stocks are in process of rolling over, but next two weeks could see a rally to 10,375 before it collapses Not much more than two weeks left on this rally. Watch support at 9,900, 9,600, and especially 9,450. As the Dow crashes through those levels, it gets weaker and weaker. S&P500 today dropped 13.31 to 1,079.60. A reader brought to my notice that the S&P500 and gold are trading about the same price. Huh.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, October 22, 2009

The Gold Price Must Close Above $1,065 to Resume Its Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1,057.80
Change: -5.90 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.530
Change: -28 or -1.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,367.40
Change: -2.00 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 337.65
Change: -1.00 or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.34
Change: -0.327 or -0.5%

Dow Industrial: 10,081.31
Change: 131.95 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index: 75.06
Change: 0.03 or 0.0%

Perplexing. Bewildering. What am I not seeing?

The GOLD PRICE rose $5.90 yesterday, and fell $5.90 today, to close on Comex at $1,057.80. Yet in the aftermarket it's trading at $1,060.10. Why does that bewilder me? Because when a market corrects, well, it corrects, it doesn't hang around and flex its muscles at the highs. Maybe I'm all wrong. Maybe this correction is even shallower than I expected, and gold even much stronger. Or maybe all the fall will come on a single day. As I have been repeating until y'all are holding your hands over your eyes, the gold price must close above $1,065 to resume its rally. Otherwise, it ought to drift down to a low, probably around $1,040, maybe as low as $1,020, before 31 October.

The SILVER PRICE rose 26.7 cents yesterday, and fell 28 cents today, just burning up buying power. Closed today on Comex at $17.53, but in the aftermarket is trading at $17.675. In the last few days SILVER and GOLD PRICES have performed the same way, rising stubbornly in that aftermarket. Almost as if someone were pushing them down on the Comex, against the market's own bent. Is it Nice Government Men manipulating behind the curtains, or just a stubbornly strong market?

Oddly enough, the US DOLLAR INDEX these past few days has remained roughly flat. Therefore 'tis not the dollar moving stocks, or gold or silver. Number to watch here is 75. if the dollar index closes below, say, 74.90, it will fall another 100 basis points. Closed today at 75.055, up 3 basis points.

STOCKS must advance tomorrow, else they leave above them a fatal deadly top. I expect they will move higher, but that is no reason for you to heed their siren song. Stocks are now making a top in their correction from last spring's 6550 low, and within weeks will sink out of sight. Dow closed the day up 131.95 at 10,081.31, having dropped 95 points yesterday. S&P500 rose 11.51 to 1,092.91. Notice the see-sawing up and down. That won't last long.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The Gold Price Has Not Yet Left Its Correction Behind

Gold Price Close Today : 1,063.70
Change: 5.90 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.810
Change: 26.7 or 1.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,361.00
Change: 8.00 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 337.00
Change: 2.50 or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 59.72
Change: 0.322 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial: 9,949.36
Change: -92.12 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 75.09
Change: -0.48 or -0.6%

Rising $5.90 to close on Comex at $1,063.70, the GOLD PRICE appeared very strong today. But a high at $1,064.40 was lower than Monday - Tuesday. Also, the high close so far has been $1,064.20, and $1,063.70 is still lower than that. A break of $1,048 will suck gold lower. It appears awfully strong, but has not yet left its correction behind.

The SILVER PRICE rose 26.7 cents to $17.81. The low yesterday and today was $17.28 -- double bottom? Yet today's high was still lower than Thursday's. Without a close above $18.00 silver has not broken out to the upside. SILVER and GOLD PRICES really have a lot of strength pushing them up. Or is that dollar weakness pushing them up?

The US DOLLAR INDEX today lost 48 basis points to reach 75.085. Low today was 74.95, so the dollar is playing with that trap tdoor again, and will probably fall further. Dollar stands at lowest point since August 2008. I don't like it at all. Remember what happened in July 2008, when the Nice Government Men manipulated a dollar rally off a 71 low, crashing the commodity markets and ultimately precipitating the entire financial panic?

The NGM are setting a trap for the shorts. Once the trap fills up they will slam it shut. Panicking shorts will send the dollar flying, and twill be most bloody.

STOCKS stayed level all day, then collapsed about 3:30. All the lemmings shifted at once? Way stocks stand, this could just as well turn out to be only a little correction, building for a run at 10,375, or it could be the start of a new breakdown. Watch 9,900 first, then 9,500. Dow closed down 92.12 at 9,949.36 and S&P500 shaved off 9.66 to end at 1,081.40.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Expect a Gold Price Low Between $1,041 and $1,035, With Possible Spike As Low As $1,020

Gold Price Close Today : 1057.80
Change: 0.50 or 0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.543
Change: 6.7 or 1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1346.50
Change: -16.00 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 337.10
Change: 1.00 or 0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.30
Change: 0.031 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,041.48
Change: -50.71 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index: 75.51
Change: 0.26 or 0.3%

You can learn a lot by looking at a five day chart. It irons out the noisy details. the gold price, for instance, couldn't hold ground above $1,065 melting away toward $1,055 with a low at $1,052.75. On Comex gold closed up 50 cents at $1,057.80. Appears to be the end of the up-move and last of correction coming. Expect a low between $1,041 and $1,035, with possible spike as low as $1,020. Begin buying at $1,040. Any down move ought to end by 30 October. A close below $1,020 says I'm wrong and deep correction will follow; close above $1,065 turns everything around and flashes a renewed rally.

Silver fell 6.7 cents to 17.5430 on Comex. Last Thursday and today silver challenged 18.00 without success, so watch for a test of 17.20 - 16.80 next. Possible it might spike to 16.00. If it breaks that, 14.00 is the next busstop. My expectation is 17.20, not lower, but then, I am often wrong.

US Dollar index rose 25.8 basis points, so dodged the trap door at 75.00. Support is now 75.25, but there's no sign or proof of any bottom yet. We have to keep expecting a dollar rally, if for no other reason because it is now so universally despised. Also the high rollers are now working the dollar carry trade, borrowing dollars with near zero interest rates and investing them in trades they think will pay off big, like stocks. Clearly, this is a recipe for shearing. When the dollar carry trade starts unwinding, precipitated by a rising dollar, the shorts will panic and cover and dollar will soar. Well, insofar as a dodo bird can soar. It's relative, you know.

STOCKS gave back some of yesterday's gains. The Dow dropped 50.71 to 10,041.48 and S&P500 fell 6.85 to 1,091.06. Dow still headed for that 10,375 mark and 50% retracement. Sell 'em if you got 'em.

My friend Bob the Technical genius called today with some astonishing news. JP Morgan's commodity arm in London announced that it would begin accepting gold for margin deposits. Astounding! Maybe they need gold to cover shorts, but notwithstanding this re-introduces gold as money.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, October 19, 2009

Buy Gold on Any Breakout Above $1,065, or Any Drop Below $1,040.

Gold Price Close Today : 1,057.30
Change: 6.60 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.610
Change: 20.5 or 1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,357.90
Change: 14.00 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 334.35
Change: 5.00 or 1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.04
Change: 0.368 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,092.19
Change: 96.28 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index: 75.25
Change: -0.39 or -0.5%

The SILVER PRICE jumped 20-1/2 cents today to close on the Comex at $17.61. In the after- market it's trading at $17.86. High so far this move has been $17.893 last Wednesday, 14 October. A close strongly above $18.00 would break silver out to the upside. Buy if it does, but likelier is more sideways to down shilly-shallying in a shallow correction. Shouldn't drop lower than $17.00 at most.

The GOLD PRICE's high close has been $1064.20, so that's another number to watch. A close above that means a breakout. By the way, when I say "a close above that price" I don't mean 10 cents above that price. Ought to be at least 2% above, but less would do as long as it gained again the next day. Gold closed today $6.60 higher at $1,057.30 on Comex. Today may have been a fooler, an upday in a correction. Be careful. Buy any breakout above $1,065, or any drop below $1,040. In the aftermarket gold is trading right at $1,065.

Analysts whom I read and respect see the present gold and silver markets through eyes different to mine. They're calling for $14.00 silver, and who knows where that would put gold -- $950? I think they're misjudging this market's mood. The bull has broken down the fence and run out of the paddock and he ain't coming back. That's why I believe these will be shallow corrections. Next low is due by October 30.

What's the alarm that will tell you I'm wrong? The silver price closing below $17.00 and the gold price below $1,020.

STOCKS edged up 96.28 to close at Dow 10,092.19, a new high for this rally. S&P 500 rose 10.23 to 1,097.91. Looks like the Dow may reach the 50% correction level at10,375 before it collapses.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, October 16, 2009

This is Your Last Chance to Buy Gold at These Gold Prices.

Gold Price Close Today : 1,050.70
Gold Price Close 09 October : 1,047.80
Change: 2.90 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.405
Silver Price Close 09 September : 17.675
Change: -1.5% or -27.00


Platinum Price Close Today: 1,341.70
Platinum Price Close 09 October: 1,329.50
Change: 12.200 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 330.65
Palladium Price Close 09 October: 320.15
Change: 10.500 or 3.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.37
Gold Silver Ratio 09 October: 59.28
Change: 1.09 or 1.8%

Dow Industrial: 9,864.94
Dow 09 October: 9,487.67
Change: 377.270 or 4.0%

US Dollar Index: 76.450
US Dollar 09 October: 76.912
Change: -0.462 or -0.6%

Scorecard at week's end is supposed to tell the whole story. Well, it's talking today.

First of all, the much-mooted US DOLLAR rally has, like summer snow, failed to materialize. The Fed's comrades at the Euro Central Bank tried to talk up the buck this week, but the total rise has amounted to less than 20 basis points. Dollar Index must rise above 77.50 before even a sniff of a rally begins. Otherwise, dollar's still headed down, toward 74.

STOCKS pierced at long last Dow 10,000, but couldn't hold on. The 50% retracement of the October '07 - March -09 fall is 10,375. Dow probably won't cross that line, at least not for long and not far.

Although gold rolled over this week after new all time highs at $1,063.90, it still rose 2.90 on the week! Clearly the shallow correction I have anticipated has begun. Gold will grudgingly trade down toward $1,020, but may not drop lower than $1,030 or $1,040. This is your last chance to buy gold at these gold prices.

If the gold price closes above $1,065 next week, do not wait. It means it has broken out to the upside and will not go lower. Today gold closed up 90 cents at $1,050.70.

The SILVER PRICE rose half a cent today to close at 17.405, down 27 cents on the week. Silver is sharing a correction with gold, and as always (this should no longer surprise y'all) shows more volatility. Silver will trade a little lower next week, but should not break 17.00.

What should be a short, shallow correction for silver and gold has begun. Bottom of this correction should come no later than 30 October, if it lasts that long. This is minor, don't fret yourselves. Take the chance to buy cheap silver and gold.

Thank you for your prayers on my granddaughter Caroline's behalf. She looked better than expected inside, so they didn't have to operate on her heart, only put a shunt to her lungs. Took out the arterial probe yesterday, & she is doing remarkably well, thank God..

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, October 15, 2009

Gold Price Should Not Drop Further than $1,020, Maybe Not Further Than $1,030 or Thereabouts

Gold Price Close Today : 1049.80
Change: -14.10 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.400
Change: 49.3 or -2.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1348.50
Change: -10.10 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 328.15
Change: -2.65 or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.33
Change: -0.793 or -1.3%

Dow Industrial: 10,062.94
Change: 41.56 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 75.51
Change: 0.05 or 0.1%


SILVER and GOLD PRICES
began yesterday the correction they have been hinting at. The GOLD PRICE should not drop further than $1,020, maybe not further than $1,030 or thereabouts. I do not expect a long correction -- short and brief. Dollar's weak performance yesterday gives the lie to the notion that the silver and gold price hang only on the dollar. They're marching to their own tune. Correction should end not later than 30 October, maybe sooner. Take this chance to buy more silver and gold, and especially to sell any remaining stocks.

The head of the European Central Bank tried to talk up the dollar yesterday, in vain. Dollar index closed up 5 gigantic basis points. Stocks managed to punch through 10,000, as long expected, but can't follow through. Watch Dow 10,375, which is a 50% correction from the Oct. 2007 - March 2009. Stocks will probably fail around there.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Today's Gold Price Action Formed an Equilateral Triangle, Which Tomorrow Could Break Out Up or Down

Gold Price Close Today : 1064.20
Change: 7.50 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.805
Change: 2.0 or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1352.00
Change: 13.40 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 329.80
Change: 0.00 or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 59.70
Change: 0.420 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial: 9,871.06
Change: -14.74 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index: 75.77
Change: -0.36 or -0.5%

GOLD's five day chart shows a perfect uptrend line, anchored on $1,045 lows last Thursday and Friday. Today's action formed an equilateral triangle, which tomorrow could break out up or down. Again, the existing uptrend makes the upside more likely. The GOLD PRICE closed on Comex at $1,064.20, up $7.50.

'Twas a turbulent day for the SILVER PRICE, rising to $18.02, then getting slapped back to $17.54, yet closing Comex up 2 cents at $17.825. $17.50 is now key support.

Bull markets always climb a wall of worry, says the proverb, so here I go. Silver's trouble piercing $18.00 might amount to nothing more than a usual "two tries to break strong resistance." Then again, it non-confirms gold's strong performance piercing $1,060 resistance today. Metals' advance begins to feel a bit sluggish, heavy-footed. Strong silver performance tomorrow would vaporize my worry.

DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS today dropped to a new low. Even if hard days lie ahead of us, as metals investors we'll be better off than those in stocks.

The US DOLLAR INDEX broke 75.90, even 75.80 today (low was 75.738) but did not collapse as I expected. Either the dollar found "sponsorship" from the Nice Government Men or some unbelievably brave contrarians, or the buck has now found new feet at 75.80. Course,it must hold that level tomorrow. The "Trend in force" rule leads me to expect further fall.

STOCKS: Today the Dow couldn't make any headway and got punished for trying. Performances reversed today with the Dow & S&P 500 barely down and the Nasdaq Comp barely up (+0.75 to 2,139.89). Dow closed down 14.75 at 9,871.06 and S&P down 3 at 1,073.19. All this bespeaks confusion and indecision. Yesterday the Dow reached the nosebleed limit of its September highs and high for the rally from spring. Must now fish or cut bait, advance or die. Clear 9,900 or collapse. Probably will climb a bit more, since the Bear wants to entice the most victims possible into
his cave for mauling.

Starting the day with welcome news, my granddaughter Caroline's surgery went very well. Surgeon found he could operate on vessels to her lungs alone, so didn't have to operate on her heart. Small hole in heart will heal itself or can be fixed by catheter when she's a teenager. Surgery was much quicker than expected, and she is doing very well. Thanks and praise be to God, and thanks to all you who prayed for Caroline. Don't stop!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, October 12, 2009

Need Higher Gold and Silver Prices Tomorrow or They Will Probably Lapse into a Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 1056.70
Change: 8.90 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.805
Change: 13.0 or 0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1339.40
Change: 7.80 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 329.80
Change: 6.05 or 1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 59.35
Change: 0.067 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 9,885.80
Change: 20.86 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 76.18
Change: -0.13 or -0.2%

The GOLD PRICE rose again toward last week's intraday high at $1,060. Bumping along against the ceiling won't work for long. Gold must advance through $1,050. I reckon it will. Gold's Comex settlement came in up $8.90 to $1,056.70.

The SILVER PRICE made a high today at $17.98, about its high of Thursday last. As with the gold price, bumping along ceilings works for helium balloons, but not for metals. The silver price must advance tomorrow, preferably through $18.00.

BOTTOM LINE: SILVER and GOLD PRICES remain in rally mode, but as every rally must grow, so must this one. Closes tomorrow lower than any day last week will condemn us to a week or more of correction, then a resumed rally, rather than a continuing rally.

Wow. I re-read that and not even I am sure what it means. Try again: I want to see gold and silver prices higher tomorrow, or they will probably lapse into a correction, interrupting the rally.

Better. That's English at least.

So far 75.90 has held US DOLLAR INDEX declines, but the dollar index is now knocking on that door again. It fell from 76.668 today like a concrete coconut from a 300 foot tree. A cross below 75.90 - 75.80 tomorrow sends the dollar plummeting toward 74 or lower. Closed today at 76.184, down 13.1 basis points.

STOCKS were, as they like to say, "mixed" today. That shows a confused market. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.14 at 2,139.14, while the Dow rose 20.85 to 9,885.80 and the S&P500 climbed 4.7 to close at 1,076.19. Like the heavy drumbeat in the distant jungle of an old Tarzan movie, "Confusion bad juju, Bwana!" Stocks are topping, and sometime in the next 2-6 weeks a big fall loometh.

My granddaughter Caroline's heart surgery
takes place tomorrow. Please continue
praying for her.




Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, October 09, 2009

While the Gold Price Gained 4.6% This Week, the Silver Price Piled on 9.1%

Gold Price Close Today : 1,047.80
Gold Price Close 02 October : 1,003.20
Change: 44.60 or 4.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.675
Silver Price Close 25 September : 16.208
Change: 1.4670 or 9.1%


Platinum Price Close Today: 1,329.50
Platinum Price Close 02 October: 1,281.50
Change: 48.000 or 3.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 320.15
Palladium Price Close 02 October: 297.75
Change: 22.400 or 7.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 59.28
Gold Silver Ratio 02 October: 61.90
Change: -2.61 or -4.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,864.94
Dow 02 October: 9,487.67
Change: 377.270 or 4.0%

US Dollar Index: 76.450
US Dollar 02 October: 76.912
Change: -0.462 or -0.6%

Yesterday I got it clean wrong expecting higher SILVER and GOLD PRICES today. Profit takers just couldn't resist. Today may be whispering that a short correction is beginning, down as far as $1,022.50, unless of course the GOLD PRICE clears $1,060 (yesterday's high) on Monday. That would mean the advance is continuing unbroken, having finished whatever small correction it will make with this day's decline. The Gold Price dropped today $7.60 to $1,047.80. I'm still not used to writing a comma in the gold price.

While the gold price gained 4.6% this week, the SILVER PRICE piled on 9.1%. There's that volatility again, kicking you on the way down but thrilling your heart on the way up. Gold silver ratio fell 4.2%, but not yet low enough for a swap. I'm expecting the opportunity to hit the last days of this year or first days of next.

BOTTOM LINE: Gold has broken through long term resistance at $1,000, touched back to confirm the breakout,and steadily advanced higher. 95% probability says this marks beginning of a rally that will carry to $1,325. Other 5% says it might reach $1,140 (thanks, Bob the Technical Genius, for giving me something to fret about) and make one more downward leg to $680. I'll go with the $1,325 outlook. I believe silver and gold prices are moving much higher, and fast. Third leg up is beginning, the most bodacious, ferocious, and profitable leg.

Buy the breakout.
Hold all positions, sell nothing.
Wildest part of the ride is beginning.


'Twas a big week for gold and silver, but not so big for the US Dollar.

Today the dollar gained back 48.4 basis points of the roughly 150 bps it has lost in the past three days. Yet at today's closing of 76.45, the US dollar index remains 46.2 bps below last weeks close, down 0.6%. The dollar index may be rounding thorough a bottom but O! How slowly! It must exceed 77.63, the 50 day moving average, to change direction and turn up. The weekly chart shows an unchanged downtrend.

STOCKS have nearly reached their September high, and now stand at a fork in the road. The fork to the high road leads to 10,000, maybe a 10,500 Dow. The fork to the low road simply collapses. For a short while longer, bet on the high road. Sell stocks now if you have any left.

Dow closed today at 9,864.94, up 78.07. S&P closed at 1071.49, up 6.01.

Last spring the Dow in Gold Dollars (value of the Dow measured in gold) started to rise. When it reached the G$193 - G$195 area (9.336 oz - 9.433 oz) it stalled a while. The rise peaked in August at G$208.78 ( 10.100 oz), and now has sunk back to that breakout point. That and the down-turned moving averages forecast much lower stock values against gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, October 08, 2009

Look for Higher Gold and Silver Prices Again Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1,055.40
Change: 12.10 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.80
Change: 32 or 1.84%

Gold Silver Ratio Close Today: 59.29
Change: -0.4 or -0.67%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1342.50
Change: 12.00 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 318.70
Change: 5.00 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,786.87
Change: 61.29 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 75.90
Change: -59.80 or -44.1%

FACE IT: SILVER and GOLD PRICES are going higher. For the fourth day running the GOLD PRICE rose, today up $12.10 to $1,055.40. For the third straight day the SILVER PRICE rose, up 32.2 cents to $17.80, well above the September high and any suspicions this move isn't real. Silver has risen $1.287 in three days.

Although eventually metals will take a breather, that probably won't happen until next week. Look for higher prices again tomorrow to top off the week. Far, far higher prices are coming.

Buy the breakout.

Don't sell, don't take profits. It's a bull market,
so hold your position.


Aaaaaannnnd the US dollar index fainted plumb dead away today. Rallied to 76.3 about 10:a.m., the floor opened up and swallowed it, down 59.3 basis points on the day as I write, and headed at least for 74, likely a tadge lower. As I have so long counselled y'all, get out of US dollars, and all investments that promise to pay you dollars in the future: bonds, annuities, CDs, bank deposits.

Stocks answered my question today about the last two days' chart pattern: top or consolidation? Consolidation, as the Dow broke out to move 61.29 higher and settle at 9,786.87. S&P 500 rose 7 to 1,065.48. Looks like rally begun last spring will end with a little punch through 10,000 before it collapses. Stay away from stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, October 07, 2009

The Gold Price is in Uncharted, Never-Before-Traded-In Territory

Gold Price Close Today : 1,043.30
Change: 4.00 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.478
Change: 20.5 or 1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,327.20
Change: 12.00 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 311.45
Change: 8.00 or 2.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 59.69
Change: 0.222 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,725.58
Change: -5.67 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index: 76.41
Change: 0.08 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE hit a high today of $1,048.10. It is still advancing, but spent today catching some breath. Gold is in uncharted, never-before-traded-in territory but a close above $1,050 -- a round number -- will attract attention and buyers. On Comex gold closed at $1,043.30, up $4.00. If instead of smashing $1,050 tomorrow gold corrects, remember it must hold $1,020.

The SILVER PRICE moved higher today again, up 20.5 cents to $17.478. That is a new high close, and marks a nearly $1.00 gain in two days. Looks to me like silver is running away. Close above $17.50 tomorrow will send it sprinting toward $18.00. Real resistance doesn't come in until silver crosses above that point.

STOCKS had a confused day. The Dow dipped slightly -- 5.67 points -- to close at 9,725.58, while the S&P 500 & others edged up slightly. Last two days charts of Dow and S&P500 look like somebody swinging a long rag on a stick -- straight up then sideways. Might be consolidating, but looks more like a top. Y'all ought to have sold all your stocks already anyway. If you haven't, you have days, at most a week or two, before another waterfall -- and waterfalls don't run up.

The US Dollar Index may have double-bottomed yesterday and today at 76.15. Let's see if it can follow through tomorrow. My expectation is that after dithering a while, the Dollar Index will fall again toward 74.

More and more of y'all have written about praying for my granddaughter Caroline Sanders when she has heart surgery on 13 October. Your tender concern endears every one of you to me.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, October 06, 2009

A Clean Breakout. The Gold Price is Targeting $1,325.

Gold Price Close Today : 1038.60
Change: 21.90 or 2.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.273
Change: 76.0 or 4.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,315.20
Change: 20.00 or 1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 307.20
Change: 8.00 or 2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.13
Change: 1.242 or 2.1%

Dow Industrial: 9,731.25
Change: 131.50 or 1.4%

US Dollar Index: 76.33
Change: -0.32 or -0.4%

Today gold unleashed those seven league boots again, crashing right through $1,020 resistance and running to a high at $1,043.50. The GOLD PRICE closed up $21.90 at $1,038.60. Nope, that's not a misprint. It's also a clean breakout, so stop worrying and buy. This rise is targeting $1,325. Yes, I know how crazy that sounds, but do you know how crazy it feels, after 29 years in the silver and gold markets, to have to write "1-comma" before the gold price?

The SILVER PRICE slightly outperformed gold today, rising 76 cents to $17.2730 at Comex close, blasting through resistance at $16.50 and $17.00 like they were wet cardboard. Buy silver. That's all I can say.

But you know, the hard part here (as my friend and technical genius Bob warned me today) will be to convince people to hold on to their silver and gold. Falsely concluding that the metals have made their run, investors will want to sell now, at the very time silver and gold are fixing to run away upside.

I'm no Elliot Wave technician. I reckon I'm just not bright enough to understand it, but some things are obvious. Look at the silver or gold charts from 2001 through today. Stand across the room and ask, "What strikes your eye?" It will be the gigantic drop from March 2008 through November 2008 on both charts. Look closer and you can trace out a 1 up - 2 down - 3 up - 4 down - 5 up wave pattern topping in 2008.

What does that mean? Only that the first of what will be five waves in the bull market has been completed, corrected in a second wave down, and is now beginning the third wave up. And the third wave is never the shortest, and usually the most ferocious and turbulent of all three up-waves. Friends, we have just come through the longest and slowest part of a bull market, and are now entering the really wild times. Think of the US stock market after the 1987 crash until 2000, and you'll get an idea what I mean.

From Nov. 2001 at $4.02 silver rose to $20.57 in March 2008. That's a 511% increase, 5.11 times the beginning price. Now the next wave will move at least that far and should move further. Do the math, beginning at $8.80 last fall, and see what target you get. Right.

Mark, dear Readers, that although the Dow rose 131.5 points, today, the Dow in Gold Dollars still fell to G$193.69 (9.37 oz). Several of y'all wrote asking how to figure or keep up with the Dow in Gold Dollars. Easiest way is to follow the Dow in Gold Ounces, which will give you the same chart, just different numbers.

Today the US DOLLAR INDEX dropped another 30 basis points to close at 76.325. The scrofulous dollar has lost about 80 bps in the last three days. I have to laugh and make fun of it, otherwise the tragedy and train of horror that follows destroying a nation's currency would overwhelm me with tears. How many will suffer so that the rotten and greedy can hold on to power?

Thanks very much for your e-mails about praying
for my granddaughter Caroline Sanders when she
has heart surgery on 13 October. I deeply appreciate
your thoughtfulness.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, October 05, 2009

Buy Gold On Any Close Over $1,018.90

Gold Price Close Today : 1016.70
Change: 13.50 or 1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.513
Change: 30.1 or 1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,295.30
Change: 12.00 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 301.85
Change: 6.00 or 2.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.57
Change: 0.806 or 1.3%

Dow Industrial: 9,599.75
Change: 112.08 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index: 76.70
Change: -0.24 or -0.3%

Once the GOLD PRICE pierced US$1,005, it pulled on its seven league boots and jumped clean to US$1,017.50 and stayed, closing at US$1,016.70, up $13.50. Gold's next barrier to break is the $1,018.90 high close from 16 Sept. A failure there would be very bad news, but at the present speed of gold it appears likely to clear that hurdle this week. Remember that from below gold must not break $985.

If these gold prices seem awfully high, surrounded by a cloud of reasons gold shouldn't rally further, recall the market proverb, "A bull market always climbs a wall of worry." Buy any close over $1,018.90, and buy lots more on the 2nd day close above that amount.

There's a pattern silver fans must get used to, or keep on biting your nails to the quick: gold moves first, then silverovertakes. Now it's not always that way, but silver's much smaller market size makesit dance with gold as penny stocks dance with blue chips. Namely, penny stocks stocks speed up toward the end of a blue chip rally. This is not, however, always so. The SILVER PRICE rose ahead of gold earlier this year. From last November's lows to recent highs the gold price rose only 44.7% while the silver price rose 100.7%. Generally, though, silver will accelerate and outperform toward the end of gold's rally. That's why the trough of the Gold/Silver Ratio usually marks the price peak in Gold and Silver as well, or within a few days.

Buy more silver when gold signals a buy.

After four down days in a row, the Dow turned up today. It closed at 9,566.75, up 112.08, but couldn't quite climb above the technically and psychologically critical 9,600 resistance. S&P500 rose also, 15.25, to 1,040.46. Stay away from stocks.

Since it began rallying from G$145.37 (7.032 oz) last March, the Dow in Gold Dollars has reached a high of G$209.47(10.133 oz, 27 August). Since then it has O so slowly rolled over to today's G$195.18 (9.442 oz), a new low. Since the DiG$ has now crossed beneath the fast-moving 17 day moving average and the slower 50 DMA, the only confirmation needed for a big fall is crossing beneath the 200 DMA, today at G$188.48 (9.118 oz).

Why do I care? Because the DiG$ is my most faithful and trustworthy indicator for the future of stocks and of gold. It is telling us that stocks are about to fall and gold about to rise.

The US DOLLAR INDEX crept to 77 midday, then just fainted dead away. It closed at 76.697, down 23.6 basis points today and about 50 bps the last two days. The $ Index has fallen 14.4% from its 4 March 2009 52-week-high. The size of that fall so far whispers that more action to the downside is coming. To rally the $ Index must rise above 77.50, then 79. However, for the past 9-1/2 months the 50 DMA has capped the $ Index, so no rally is possible till it breaks above the 50 DMA and stays there. 50 DMA stands now at 77.80.

On 13 October 2009 my granddaughter, Caroline Sanders, 26 months old, will have her third heart surgery. In the past y'all have very kindly prayed for her recovery, and I would be most deeply thankful if y'all would pray for her during this surgery. Don't forget her parents, Justin & Ellen. Sometimes I think the surgery is harder on them than it is on Caroline.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, October 02, 2009

The Gold Price Traded Through US$1,000, and has Touched Back to the Point of Breakout

Gold Price Close Today : 1,003.20
Gold Price Close 25 September : 990.20
Change: 13.00

Silver Price Close Today : 16.208
Silver Price Close 25 September : 16.038
Change: 17.00


Platinum Price Close Today: 1,281.50
Platinum Price Close 25 September: 1,278.40
Change: 3.100

Palladium Price Close Today: 297.75
Palladium Price Close 25 September: 294.90
Change: 2.850

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.90
Gold Silver Ratio 25 September: 61.74
Change: 0.15

Dow Industrial: 9,487.67
Dow 25 September: 9,655.19
Change: -167.520

US Dollar Index: 76.912
US Dollar 25 September: 76.812
Change: 0.100

Let the week speak, and let every mouth keep silence. Numbers, though mute, speak for themselves.

Mark! Both silver and gold rose for the week. Today gold closed at US$1,003.20, up 3.70 for the day and $13 for the week. Silver fell 21 cents today to close the week at 16.208 That was still 17 cents higher than last week's close.

Looking back at my weekly reports for the 4th & 11 of September, it's plain I've been expecting gold to runaway after clearing US$1,000. That hasn't happened yet. Was I dead wrong?

Nope, I don't think so, because gold has spent so much time -- 3+ weeks -- oscillating around US$1,000. If the gold price were not going to rise further, it would have already broken US$975, but it hasn't.

Only silver has flicked a fly into this ointment, with its last two days' weakness. Yet how weak really was it? Not weak enough to break critical $16 cent support. Maybe it was just traders taking profits.

As long as the gold price closeth not below US$975, and silver closeth not below $15 (yes, $15), I have to call this a "rally in progress."

Lo, I am not so slow or arrogant as to fail to perceive how far out on a limb this pushes me, but the charts and the logic won't let me climb down. Gold traded through US$1,000, and has touched back to the point of breakout. That's a typical market move and in no way announces a rally ending.

Of course, we live in Lunatickworld, where any morning we might wake up to find our glorious people's government has repealed the law of gravity, or closed all the banks to save Wall Street, or replaced the dollar as the national currency with stainless steel pot lids. In such a world, readers often ask me, what good is technical analysis? It's a guide, only a guide. Remember that the fundamentals are all with silver and gold, and every single day Ben Bernanke and the entire Washington administration wake up figuring what they they can do today to help silver and gold.


Meanwhile, back to the US Dollar. No question in my mind the US Dollar index is headed for its 50 day moving average at 77.84, or 77.50 resistance. How long will this rally last? Two weeks, maybe two months if the media and the Fed can really pump up the deflation scare. After that they will return to business as usual, inflating. You're just watching the drunk at the wheel, mashing the accelerator until he gets scared, then slamming on the monetary brakes.

STOCKS yesterday suffered a "90% down day." Usually those are the Capistrano swallows of a big dive coming. If you have not already sold all your stocks -- yes, those in IRAs, 401(k)s, and mutual funds -- better do it quickly. A chance yet lingers that stocks will rally one last time to penetrate 10,000 weakly, but a close below 9,250 next week gainsays that forever.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, October 01, 2009

As Long As Gold Doesn't Close Below $985, 'Tis In An Uptrend

Gold Price Close Today : 999.50
Change: -8.50

Silver Price Close Today : 16.418
Change: -21.8

Platinum Price Close Today: 1288.10
Change: -12.00

Palladium Price Close Today: 295.60
Change: -4.00

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 60.88
Change: 0.287

Dow Industrial: 9,509.28
Change: -203.00

US Dollar Index: 77.18
Change: 0.48

The GOLD PRICE slid downhill in a narrow range today as somebody hammered on it until it closed at a meager 50 cents below the psychologically important $1,000 mark, down $8.50 for the day. Range was fairly tight, from a $1,009.7 high to a $997.8 low. Tomorrow the battle will take place around $995 and $990. My song has not changed: as long as gold doesn't close below $985, 'tis in an uptrend.

The SILVER PRICE closed down 21.8 cents, at $16.418. Low at $16.27 keeps getting higher. Silver must hold above $15.75. I don't see any internal signs that demand is weakening, signs like falling premiums on physical silver. In Euros and Yen silver is making the same weird "W" pattern it made this past summer in the US Dollar before it exploded upside.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rose 47.6 basis points today to 77.179. Although it rose relentlessly from yesterday's close, still the dollar couldn't pound through 77.30, the wall that stopped it on Tuesday. The scrofulous dollar is headed higher, at least to the last low at 77.50.

STOCKS, represented by the Dow, took their biggest drop in 3 months today. Dow fell 203 to 9,509.28. S&P 500 fell even harder, down 27.23 to 1,029.85. Can't make up my mind whether this marks the end for stocks' rally, or whether Dow will pierce 10,000 in one more doomed thrust up. Either way, I don't want to own stocks with them headed for one ounce of gold to buy the whole Dow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.