Buy Gold and Silver How to Buy Gold How to Buy Silver Gold Commentary

Monday, November 30, 2009

Question Now for Silver and Gold Prices is, What Happens Next?

Gold Price Close Today : 1181.10
Change: 6.90 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.495
Change: 19.3 cents or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1455.50
Change: 3.00 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 365.20
Change: -4.00 or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.86
Change: 0.366 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,309.92
Change: -154.48 or -1.5%

US Dollar Index: 74.81
Change: -0.10 or -0.1%

Dubai, Shmubai, what else is new? Did you ever see any pictures of the Palm Jambalaya they were building? Spending like they didn't know what money is, and y'all are surprised they turned up defaulting on $80 billion in debt? Shocking.

Market wasn't terribly surprised either. Dollar jumped, but only barely on the news (conveniently announced on Thanksgiving Day, when all US markets are closed). Ended the day at 75, which from 74.346 was up 46.7 basis points, not the response you'd expect to an earthshaking crisis. The GOLD PRICE closed Friday at $1,174.20, down 16 bucks from all time highs. Yet again, who is surprised, or alarmed? No big move. The SILVER PRICE spiked to $17.67, then closed at $18.30, in the end merely proving that the $18.00 - $18.30 support level will hold.

I'm not saying that SILVER and GOLD PRICES won't lengthen out a correction, but there's no proof yet. In fact, to go through a day like the Dubai announcement and a slight panic, drop but not too sharply, then close up today, folks, that's great performance, not weak.

Today the gold price closed up $6.90 at $1,181.10 and the silver price rose 19.3 cents to end at $18.495 on Comex. I warn in passing that silver and gold prices remain vulnerable to a surprise dollar rally, but so far, no sign of anything falling apart.

Question now for silver and gold prices is, what happens next? Will they hold on or fall? As in the crisis of Fall 2008 gold coins have begun disappearing and premiums are rising. The US Mint helps nothing by halting minting of gold and silver American Eagles. One wholesaler refuses to sell me Krugerrands at all because he can't find them. Others are quoting 2 - 4 week delivery delays on everything but Austrian 100 coronas and Mexiican 50 pesos. None of that argues gold is about to fall. Just the opposite, it shouts that physical demand is surging.

Say to those who are shrieking and pulling out hair, "Grow up. It's a market. It's volatile, and on top of that you have thousands of people working for the Fed and the US government paid thousands of dollars a year to make them more valuable still. Got to get used to it."

US dollar index, as said, rose less than 50 basis points on Friday, and dropped about 20 today to close at 74.813. 'Tain't exactly running away upside.

STOCKS rose today 34.92 to close the Dow at 10,344.84, after Friday's 135 point drop. S&P 500 today closed up 4.14 at 1,095.63. If the Dow closes below 10,120, it sinks.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, November 25, 2009

The Gold Price is Headed for $1,300 or Higher Before This Rally Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 1,187.00
Gold Price Close Nov 20: 1,146.50
Change: 40.50 or 3.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.768
Silver Price Close Nov 20: 18.433
Change: 33.50 or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,475.30
Platinum Price Close Nov 20: 1,447.40
Change: 27.90 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 375.20
Platinum Price Close Nov 20: 364.95
Change: 10.25 or 2.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.91
Gold Silver Ratio Nov 20: 61.91
Change: 0.00 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,318.16
Dow Industrial Nov 20: 10,270.47
Change: 146.24 or 1.4%

US Dollar Index: 74.346
US Dollar Index Nov 20: 75.579
Change: -1.23 or -1.6%

Our office will be closed on Friday, so I am sending y'all a weekly report today. God bless you all with Thanksgiving.

I'm beginning to grasp why so many analysts have been missing or questioning the rise in silver and gold. Go look at a gold price history chart, Notice the repeated humps climbing up like a slinky ascending stairs. In fact, the chart is a stairstep.

What's happening? Gold is jumping up to a new level, and the timorous keep waiting for a correction to buy. Gold goes sideways, corrects only the the level it just broke out from, then the sideliners all jump in a buy, sending gold jumping up to the next higher level. This is a VERY strong pattern, because there is so much buying demand right under the market. This is also why "waiting for a correction" has been a terrible idea against today's market.

And more of the same lies ahead. If y'all have been waiting to buy, stop waiting and buy. Gold is headed for $1,300 or higher before this rally ends, and silver to $25.00.

Whoooooo! There she blows, the Dollar Index, headed for Davy Jones' Locker. Dollar index finally broke that support at 74.90 today & sank to trade right now at 74.346, down 73.8 basis points. I told y'all, I told y'all. It may stop at 74 or even 73.50, but could sink all the way to past low at 71. Very good news for gold, unless the dollar makes this a V- or spike bottom and turns around. That is not the dollar's wont, but could happen.

STOCKS: The Dow gained 146 points or 1.4% this week. However, I still think the Dow has burned all its ammunition & is rolling over. Stay out of stocks.

GOLD pulled another jump today, up $21.20 to $1,187.00. Does that make me nervous, rising so fast? You bet, what rises fast falls fast, too, but this rally is real, this rally has legs, this rally is targeting $1,300, and the dollar index just fell through support. That's not quite a recipe for disaster. Will
$l,200 fall next week?

The SILVER PRICE rose 31.3 cents to close the week at 18.768 up only 38.3 cents and 1.8% this week versus gold's 3.5% jump. Silver's lagging has to throw a pall over everything -- but not one so big that it stops the party. If this rally intends to continue, next week gold will burst $1,200 and silver $19.00. Trouble would come only if silver closed below $18 and gold below $1,065.

Premiums on most gold coins rose today. Marketing geniuses at the US Mint announced this week they weren't minting any more silver American Eagles this year, and today announced no more gold American Eagles. Brilliant! What timing!

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, November 24, 2009

The Gold Price is Now Blocked by $1,170

Gold Price Close Today : 1165.80
Change: 1.10 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.455
Change: -15.5 cents or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1448.80
Change: -8.50 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.50
Change: 0.25 or 0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.17
Change: 0.065 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,433.71
Change: -17.24 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 75.08
Change: 0.04 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE is now blocked by $1,170. Closed today on Comex up $1.10 at $1,165.80. The gold price is forming a long, narrow flat-topped rising triangle bounded on top by about $1,170. It has traded all the way out into the nose, so should resolve tomorrow with a breakout, but that shouldn't move too far. These flat-topped rising triangles generally resolve upside.

On Comex today the SILVER PRICE dropped 15.5 cents to close $18.455. Gold up, silver down, bite fingernails. Scratch head. Yet again silver was knocked down to $18.30(10:00 a.m.), held, and spent the rest of the day trading sideways and higher, closing near the US day's high.

Another curiosity: the gold/silver ratio has shot up to 63.1. Deep as it may be to fathom, it appears we are watching a correction in which only silver participates. That doesn't sound like a situation fraught with long term stability.

Still, still, I don't believe, in spite of all the confusion, that silver or gold is ready to fall yet. Yes, a correction to $1140 - $1120 and $18.00 could happen at any time, but not yet, not yet.

Let me misstate my poor old self and one of y'all will jump on it like a hobo on a baloney sandwich! An Ozzie friend brought to my attention today that on 20 November I referred to $20.68 as silver's "all-time high." I have no idea what I was thinking, since the all-time high came in 1980 above $50.00. In March 2008, the "last" high, silver hit $20.68. Sorry, sorry!

The scrofulous US $ index hasn't broken the bottom boundary of its range yet (74.90), but has traced out a downtrend. Friday it hit a high, then yesterday a low, fall, then lower peak. Nothing here for hope or optimism to feed on. Last trade was 25.084, down 4.3 basis points from this time yesterday.

Most stocks could manage today was to climb almost to unchanged. Dow dropped sharply on the open to 10,360, then spent the rest of the day rolling that boulder up a hill (like Sisyphus), only to close down 17.25 at 10,433.71. S&P 500 closed down 0.59 at 1,105.65. Is this the beginning of the end? Like living on the edge of a volcano, the fun could begin at any moment, or the quiet last a while. What's that smoke?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, November 23, 2009

The Overbought Gold Price Becomes More Overbought, and Climbs Still

Gold Price Close Today : 1164.70
Change: 17.90 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.603
Change: 17 cents or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1457.30
Change: 9.90 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.25
Change: 4.30 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.61
Change: 0.957 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,318.16
Change: -14.28 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index: 75.13
Change: -0.35 or -0.5%

Whoa. Overbought becomes more overbought, and climbs still. Makes me get very quiet and thoughtful.

I woke up very early this morning, while the birds were still asleep at 4:30 and
the GOLD PRICE already had surmounted $1186. Silver was $18.85. Gold indicators become more overbought day by day, but gold keeps on steadily advancing. The SILVER PRICE RSI and MACD indicators can stand to climb still more. In euros the gold price verges on breaking out upside through E790. Gold in Yen has long ago broken out above Y97,180 and today closed Y103,800.

A word about "overbought." I remember much of the decade of the 1990s watching the Dow grow more and more overbought. It was impossible to gauge. It would form bearish rising wedges, then break out to the upside. When a market is riding a bull, there's just no telling where it will stop.

Interesting, too, that the gold's bullish behaviour is driving otherwise sane analysts crazy. Analysts whom I thought understood that only monetary demand drives gold's price crazy are now falling back on jewellery demand, as if gold's price was determined by the demand for earrings or anklets. Help -- gold is not oil.

Sure, some of the speculative fever that the Fed has spawned with its low interest rate-run the printing press policies has slopped over into gold, but somebody is not thinking clearly. This is a THIRD wave up, unpredictable, surging like a full moon tide. Ride it till it falls, then when it gets up, mount back up and ride it till it falls again. Point is, overbought can get a lot more overbought still.

I don't think a one of y'all would complain if I completely miscalled gold or silver's movements, but you let me get one Latin verb or modifier wrong, and y'all are on me like a duck on a June bug. Okay, I was wrong. Technically it should be "res ipsA loquitur," because res is feminine & so ipse -a -um must agree with it in gender.

The US DOLLAR INDEX peaked Friday at 75.85 and has sunk ever since. Today once again the dollar bounced along 74.90 support, the bottom of the trading range (74.946 low). The dollar may be turning up, may be preparing to rally, but at the same rate as a glacier speeding through the Alps. Dollar Index flat-lined all day 'twixt 75.095 and 75.15. Today the scrofulous dollar closed at 75.127, down 35.3 basis points.

The Dow jumped up early this morning and stayed level to lower the rest of the day. Slowly, slowly, as always, stocks are rolling over downward. Still may see a spike to
to 11000.

In spite of the Dow's continuing gains, the Dow in Gold Dollars is being crushed. Today it closed at G$183.13 (8.859 oz), moving toward the bottom of its range and another waterfall.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, November 20, 2009

Gold's Big Correction Won't Come Before The Gold Price Finishes This Rally, and Its Target is $1,300

Gold Price Close Today : 1,146.50
Gold Price Close Nov 13: 1,116.10
Change: 30.40 or 2.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.433
Silver Price Close Nov 13: 17.37
Change: 1.0630 or 6.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,447.40
Platinum Price Close Nov 13: 1,393.10
Change: 54.30 or 3.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 364.95
Platinum Price Close Nov 13: 356.80
Change: 8.15 or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.91
Gold Silver Ratio Nov 13: 63.06
Change: -1.15 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,318.16
Dow Industrial Nov 13: 10270.47
Change: 47.69 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index: 75.579
US Dollar Index Nov 13: 75.286
Change:0.29 or 0.4%

The GOLD PRICE closed the week up $30.40, and rose on the day $5 to close on Comex at $1,146.50. In the aftermarket it's trading above $1,150.00. Big news of the week is Gold's running attack on $1,150, but it hasn't beaten down that gate yet. Am I nervous that this rally might end? Well, yes and no. Yes, a correction is long overdue and could come at any time, but only a short and shallow one. The big correction won't come before gold finishes this rally, and its target is $1,300. What makes me most fidgety of all is all this coverage of gold on TV, radio, newspapers. That's feels like the kiss of death, from a contrary standpoint, all those parvenu speculators crowding into gold. They will head for the exits and take their support with them just as quickly if gold cracks. A fast decline would shake out all these weak hands, and good enough for 'em. But gold's climb since last summer has been relentless, and wise men don't fight bull markets. Let your profits run and cut your losses short.

The SILVER PRICE, blessed silver, was the star performer this week, with a $1.02 rise on Monday. Looking back over the last year and some, rises like that, oddly enough, do not signal tops. They occur more often after bottoms and when the silver price is readying a big upmove. Little resistance stands between silver and the last (and all-time) high at $20.68. Above all is uncharted territory, as with the gold price. Anything can happen. Today the silver price closed $18.433, down 1.4 cents, not yet able to push through $18.50.

The end is NOT near for SILVER and GOLD PRICES. I told y'all earlier that this is a third leg up and should be a wild and woolly ride, and so far it has been. Much more upside over 5 or more years lies in store for silver and gold.

STOCKS are teetering above support at 10,120. If they break that line, then look out 9,700. Yesterday & today the Dow was stymied at 10,340. Friday of last week through Thursday the Dow traced out what appears to be an island top. (Technically there should be gaps up at either end of the island and they're not, but the appearance is nearly identical, so the same forces are probably at play.) Stay out of stocks. They have reached the 50% correction point and are now slowly turning over. A close over 10,440 would lead to a brief spike above that mark, maybe reaching 11,000, but you don't want to hang around for that. Once the decline starts the carnage will be appalling.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is trying to bottom, but not too convincingly. It has made a double bottom at 75/74.80 & has refused to fall through, although it has also refused to do more than trade sideways. Today was its best day this week with a 29 basis point climb to close at 75.579. Watch out for a sudden dollar rally. Everybody in the Cosmos is short dollars and expects the dollar to crash and some are even predicting a dollar collapse before year end. Rumours of the dollar's death are premature. Any dollar rally will punish the smart guys in the dollar carry trade who have borrowed cheap and (they hope) depreciating dollars to speculate in other, hotter markets. When dollar rallies they will be squeezed to death between the Scylla of a rising dollar and the Carybdis of sinking stocks and commodities.

A reader asked me what the "aftermarket" is. That's sort of an archaic phrase nowadays, but it means all the trading after the Comex close at 13:30 Eastern time. Since computerized trading opened up after Comex close, there's really unbroken trading throughout the day in the US, and then around the world. Silver and gold trade in 24 hour a day markets.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, November 19, 2009

Once the Gold Price Clears $1,150, it Will Jump Again

Gold Price Close Today : 1141.40
Change: 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.447
Change: 0.40 cents or 0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1441.50
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 369.65
Change: 0.00 or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.87
Change: 0.037 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,332.44
Change: -93.87 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 75.28
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

Over the last five days the GOLD PRICE has left behind an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. Looks like $1123.55 - $1127 was resistance, then gold broke through that and jumped to $1,144, touched back to $1,27.70 to make sure, and yesterday whacked hard on $1,150's door. Today it bounced off $1,150 and retraced to $1,130, but closed on Comex at $1,141.40 (up 70 cents) but traded higher in the aftermarket to $1,145.30. Present blockade lies at $1,150. Once gold clears that, it will jump again, another $30 - $50.

Since September the SILVER PRICE has made a series of gains solidified and confirmed by successful reaction tests. It leapt from $13.50 in August to $17.60, successfully proved that gain in a reaction to $15.80. Then came another jump to $18.00, reaction and defense at $16.06, followed by a leap to $17.50, test of $17.00, and surge to $18.80 yesterday. Today it backed off to $18.13, but closed on Comex up 4 cents at $18.447. Right now its trading at $18.57.

Do y'all perceive a pattern?

Silver must close below $18.00 to threaten its uptrend. Very little resistance stands between here and the old high at $20.68. Short, shallow corrections may come at any time, but the Big Rally has by no means ended yet. Keep buying.

Over the past three days the US $ Index has made higher lows (slightly) but been blocked at highs of 75.60. That forms a rising flat-topped triangle. Generally, but not always by any means, that formation breaks out to the upside. Meanwhile the dollar is staging a lousy performance. Up a few basis points one day, down 30 or more the next, and never quite able to put distance between itself and dangerous support at 74.90. Must either break through 75.60 above or will fall clean through 74.90 and further. My money's on that latter outcome. Scrofulous dollar closed today at 75.284, up 10 basis points. Situation deteriorating but still undecided.

STOCKS have formed an island top in the last five days. Friday the Dow topped at 10,300, then Monday jumped clean to 10,360 - 10,440, traded there Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, then dropped to 10,300 today and rallied up to 10,350. Still looks like an island top to me, although technically an island top has gaps on either side. Stocks must now close above 10,450 to disprove a top in place. Any close below 10,200 leads speedily to 9,700. Get out of stocks. Get. Out. Now.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, November 17, 2009

If Silver and Gold Prices Can Pierce $18.50 and $1,140, They Will Run Much Further, Much Longer.

Gold Price Close Today : 1138.80
Change: 0.20 or 0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.377
Change: -1.3 cents or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1458.00
Change: 3.60 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 370.70
Change: -5.55 or -1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.97
Change: 0.011 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,437.42
Change: 30.46 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index: 75.28
Change: 0.37 or 0.5%

The US DOLLAR INDEX flirted with suicide today at a 74.80 low, but a "miracle" intervened for the scrofulous dollar and it ended the day up 39.6 basis points at 75.306 -- saved for the nonce but not far from the line of fire. Since mid-
October the dollar hath thrice tested 75-74.80 support. I don't believe in "triple bottoms" because usually they are only preludes to a breakdown. To restore credibility
the Dollar Index needs to close above 76.80. We'll see.

The GOLD PRICE had declined overnight from yesterday's highs to $1,136.60. Driven all the way to $1,127.20 before New York opened, gold nevertheless rose steadily throughout the day. On Comex gold closed near its $1,141.84 high at $1,138.80, up 20 cents. Bad that it didn't close higher, but good, very good, that it declined, bounced off $1,127, and rose to close even with yesterday. And, lo, in the aftermarket it tradeth now at $1,140.50.

SILVER's chart resembles gold's. From a top yesterday above $18.40, silver traded overnight as low as $18.06. Yet the mighty white metal handily fought off the attack, defended 1800 cents, and rose steadily to close on Comex at $18.377, down 1.3c. Well, think on it. Silver rose 102 cents yesterday. Such huge gains don't come every day, an da rest is in order.

THE GREAT CONUNDRUM is whether silver and gold prices can rise further from these seemingly nosebleed heights. There's that wall of worry again. Y'all remember Kenny Rogers' song, "The Gambler"? "You gotta know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em." But how do you know?

Over the last 11 months both silver and gold have been trading with monotonous and unwonted regularity, up and down, up and down, about 105 days from Gold/Silver Ratio trough to trough. Never saw the like before, up and down at the same measured pace. About now when traders have been lulled into complacency, the market will switch and change the pace, lengthening or shortening the cycle, truncating or extending the move. This feels like fall 2007. Remember how both metals rose from August right through to March 2008? Nothing could stop them. Sure, both are overbought now, but they can always get more overbought still.

Gold's indicators are high, seeming to signal a top near. Silver's are not so high, and have room to rise higher. Both metals stand at a crossroads. If silver and gold can pierce $18.50 and $1,140, they will run much further, much longer. If not, then first a correction and then the run-up. Either way, $1,300 gold remains the technical target, and crazy silver is aiming at $23.00 to $33.00.

STOCKS fought fiercely to stay in positive territory today. Most of the day they traded at a loss, the Dow dropping as low as 10,362 and the S&P500 as low as 1,103. Much like silver and gold, stocks have between yesterday and today drawn a double top and must penetrate that ceiling (10,440) or fall back. Dow closed today up 30.46 at 10,437.42; S&P rose 1.02 to close 1,110.32. Nasdaq also rose, but other indices dropped marginally. Smells of confusion and indecision. Stay away from stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, November 16, 2009

The Silver Price Should Outperform the Gold Price Like a Show-Off - Buy the Break Out

Gold Price Close Today : 1,138.60
Gold Price Close 13 Nov: 1,095.10
Change: 43.50 or 4.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.39
Silver Price Close 13 Nov: 17.365
Change: 10.250 cents or 5.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,454.40
Platinum Price Close 13 Nov: 1,344.30
Change: 110.100 or 8.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 376.25
Palladium Price Close 13 Nov: 330.25
Change: 46.00 or 13.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 61.91
Gold Silver Ratio 13 Nov: 63.06
Change: -1.15 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,406.96
Dow Industrial 13 Nov: 10,023.42
Change: 383.540 or 3.8%

US Dollar Index: 74.911
US Dollar Index 13 Nov: 75.761
Change: -0.850 or -1.1%

Look at the changes for the week. Clearly, gold, silver, and stocks (?) are still rallying. Whatever damage to those rallies a dollar rally might do remain immaterial because the dollar refuses to rally yet.

Today was a big break out day for stocks and metals, and self-defense makes us ask whether they are joined at the hip. If they rise together will they fall together? For stocks I am sure of the answer (as sure as I ever get about such things), but not for silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX closed today dead on top of its lower support, at 74.911, down 37.5 basis points from Friday. Resistance runs from 74.777 to 74.900. If the dollar breaks that line, it will fall clean to 74, then further. Maybe even revisit the old low at 71. Tomorrow will seal the dollar's fate, one way or t'other.

STOCKS at long last have reached the 50% correction of the Spring 2009 to Now rally, 10,375. In fact, the Dow closed above that mark at 10,406.96, up 136.49. From here you have to reckon the Dow as a dead man walking. It could spike as far as 11,000, but this is as good as it gets for stocks. S&P500 closed at 1,109.30, up 15.82 Mark well, my friends, that although stocks are making new rally highs in dollar terms, in gold and silver terms the bloom long ago left the rose. The Dow in Gold Dollars topped on 27 August at G$209.47 (10.133 oz), fell through support G$195-194, and today stands just above free-fall territory. Although the Dow rose to a new high today, the DiG$ closed G$188.94 (9.14 oz), down and nearly a new low. Point is, these two, stocks and gold, are NOT moving together but against each other.

My friend Bob The Technical Genius called today and recommended that I call up charts of the ETFs, SLV & GLD, for a clear view of what silver and gold prices are doing.





Very clearly you will see the breakaway gap on both charts today. Assuming that this is a breakaway gap rather than an exhaustion gap, which is hardly likely here, then gold and silver prices are signaling a fast, large run up. That offers another argument against metals stopping here.

The SILVER PRICE today finally crossed $18.00, and spectacularly. It rose $1.02 to close at $18.39 on Comex. That's a 5.9% rise in one day! Since silver has hung back back more than gold, from here (as it is later in the rally) silver should outperform gold like a show-off. Buy the break out.

The GOLD PRICE last week argued that it was very strong when it dropped to $1,106 then closed higher Friday at $1,116.10. That set gold up for today's surge of $22.50 to a Comex close at $1,138.60. I still expect this rally to reach $1,300 before it stops. However, my friend Bob, who is a world-class worrier when it comes to markets, is sweating bullets over the $1,140 point. Okay, recall nowr H.L. Hunt's wise words, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." Any time now silver and gold could undergo sharp corrections as they tread their path to gold at $1,300. However, I don't believe that will happen tomorrow, or until both metals put meaty gains under their belts.

How will you know I am wrong? A silver close below $18.00 or a gold close below $1,106 would sound alarm claxons. Be clear, though, about stocks. They can completed their 50% correction, and can collapse any day now. They are extremely overbought (gold and silver are not).

If you still have stocks, better call your broker in the morning and sell them.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, November 12, 2009

The Gold/Silver Ratio is Signalling Lower Silver and Gold Prices, but Not Much Lower

Gold Price Close Today : 1106.00
Change: -8.00 or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.255
Change: -27.2 cents or -1.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1352.10
Change: -24.00 or -1.7%1

Palladium Price Close Today: 348.45
Change: 2.50 or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.10
Change: 0.538 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,197.47
Change: -93.79 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index: 75.12
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

Oh, Silver, Silver! How you worry those who love you! The SILVER PRICE may be forming a head and shoulders top, or that could be merely a continuation pattern -- 'tisn't clear yet. 50 DMA lies at $17.01, 200 DMA at $14.50, both ever possible targets for a correction. Best outcome for silver tomorrow is to hold above $17.00.
A fall through $17.00 leads to a re-test of $16.70, or even $16.00. Momentum indicators do NOT look overbought.

The GOLD PRICE closed on Comex down $8.00 at $1,106.00. In the aftermarket it has traded down to $1,103.10.

What are y'all griping about? Did y'all think the Road to Glory for silver and gold prices would be paved smooth so your roller skates wouldn't bump? The Bull always tries to shake off as many riders as possible.

If the gold price is following the same "jump-run-in-place" pattern it's followed since September, it might retreat to the last jumping off point, $1,065. Right now it is trading roughly at the bottom of the range from which it surged to the upside yesterday, so that level might contain it. Momentum indicators show gold overbought, but not outrageously. That occurred several days ago, which throws up another red flag.

One last thought. The gold/silver ratio rose back to 64.10 today. Mmmmm. That might mean that a second and higher top than November second's (645.111) might follow, but not much higher. The ratio has done that before. If so, the ratio is signalling lower silver and gold prices, but not much lower.

Title of today's action might be "Revenge of the Dollar Nerd." Yes, hard as it is to credit, the scrofulous US Dollar Index actually rose today, 49 whole basis points to 75.652. Now it has traced out a potential double bottom at 74.90, but still must get through resistance at 76 -- by no means a foregone conclusion. If 'tis rallying, first target is the 50 day moving average at 76.26. Then more resistance lurks at 77. If it rallies the far target is 78. Oddly, the MACD & RSI momentum indicators don't really point to a rally, since they are hovering near the top of the range.

The dollar's rally (and several days' upmove) wounded Stocks today but not fatally -- at least, that's not proven yet. Some day soon stocks will indeed top, but not yet, I think. Look for one last push up into that 10,375 (50% correction mark).

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Listen to the Flashing Message: the Gold Price has Broken Out Through $1,000.00

Gold Price Close Today : 1114.00
Change: 12.10 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.527
Change: 31.5 cents or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1371.40
Change: 15.90 or 1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 344.75
Change: 11.60 or 3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.56
Change: -0.460 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,284.91
Change: 37.94 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 75.12
Change: 0.10 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE keeps on repeating the same pattern: jump, run in place, jump. Thus today it jumped the $1,108 hurdle, ran to $1,118.60, and on Comex closed up $12.10 at $1,1114. Now in the aftermarket it's trading at $1,117.10. Listen to the flashing message: the gold price has broken out through $1,000.00 (one thousand dollars), and by measuring the upside down head and shoulders formed on gold's chat from March 2008 to July 2009, will rise $300 from breakout point. That means it will rise from $1,000 to $1,300.00.

The laggard SILVER PRICE lagged not today. On Comex it closed up 31.5cents at 17.527. Range today was $17.71 to $17.39. The silver price is probing, probing overhead resistance at 17.60. If it breaks through here, 'twill run straight for 18.00, then jump clean to 21.00 so fast it'll spin your head around like that little girl's in The Exorcist. Yes, the silver price cannot hang back too much longer, but it has been roughly keeping up with the gold price and now appears ready to rush ahead.

Ratio touched 64.019 yesterday, leaving behind a double top with 64.111 on 2 November. That's your second messenger whispering that silver is about to take off.

What about the US DOLLAR INDEX? Is it threatening silver and gold prices by strengthening? Not much. It's bumping along 75. Overnight it once again successfully resisted the market's attempt to drive it below 74.80, touching 74.774. But it climbed and stayed above 75.10 from 11 - 4 EST. Still, no real sign of turning and rallying, only failure to break down. Suspicious, may smell of a turn, but no turn yet. Only one term describes the US Dollar: scrofulous.

The Dow rose 83 points today to close at 10,285. S&P500 chugged right alongside, rising 5 to 1,098. Stocks are closing in on the moment of truth. Remember the Bear of the bear market always raises as many people's hopes as high as possible, to fill his lair before he mauls his victims. Stay clear of stocks. "Abandon hope, all ye who enter Wall Street."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, November 10, 2009

The Silver Price Remains the Fly in This Rally's Ointment

Gold Price Close Today : 1,101.90
Change: 1.10 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.212
Change: 0.258 or -1.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,355.50
Change: -0.50 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 333.15
Change: -1.05 or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.02
Change: 1.008 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,246.97
Change: 20.03 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 75.02
Change: -0.04 or -0.1%

The SILVER PRICE remains the fly in this rally's ointment. Why? It has failed so far to make new highs along with gold. Oh, it has made new highs for the move, but not all-time new highs. Today it was strongly attacked and driven back to the bottom of its range ($17.20), after breaching the top of its range ($17.20 - $17.60) during yesterday, but refusing to close above $17.60. I don't like SILVER and GOLD PRICES closing one up and one down the same day. That's a non-confirmation, a family disagreement, a falling out, and somebody may get hurt when that happens. ("Put that fork down!")

Then, too, I can switch on my paranoia meter, and it goes off the chart at such an unnatural result as "gold up/silver down." My Manipulation Meter tells me that I get a bigger bang for my precious metals manipulating buck if I hit the much smaller silver market with selling, rather than the larger gold market. If I can break the silver price, that will drag the gold price down.

Aww, but forget all that conspiracy stuff. Accurate or not, technically divergent closes indicate confusion and hesitation in any market. Stocks today showed the same bafflement, with some indices rising while others fell. Today silver fell 25.8 cents to close on Comex at $17.212. In the aftermarket silver is trading at $17.32.

The GOLD PRICE, on the other hand, kept on climbing that proverbial bull market wall of worry to close up at $1,101.90 (that is Eleven hundred One dollars & 90/100ths). You don't have to be a genius like Nancy Pelosi or Barbara Boxer to recognize gold is fighting hard to push through $1,100 against tough resistance.

The gold price climbed to $1,108 early in the day, then was driven back to $1,097. Bloodied but unbeaten it rose to close $1,101.90 on Comex, up $1.10. Then -- well, by golly! -- it climbed to $1,105.60 in the aftermarket. I have to call that a successful test of support.

Will the gold price pierce $1,110 (One thousand One hundred Ten dollars) this time? It's fighting to. Maybe it will be knocked back to correct before it does, but it won't be much. As I keep on reminding y'all, "A bull market climbs a wall of worry." That means folks on all sides can cite all sorts of apparently good reasons -- meretricious reasons, really -- why the market can't climb any further. Then it does.

Right now that "good reason" is silver's lagging. I don't know whether that foretells an imminent correction, but I do think all the "dollar carry trade" stories prophesying that gold, stocks, and commodities will collapse momentarily as the dollar soars and the carry trade gamblers get caught short dollars are overblown. Sure, it could happen, but the dollar has to rally first, and there hasn't so much as the first swallow of Capistrano flown by yet to harbinge a dollar rally.

Most of these "gold will plunge" doom-and-gloomers miss the real reason gold is rallying anyway: monetary demand. Certainly some speculative demand has been fed by the Fed's huge money supply increases, and by the Dollar carry trade, but monetary demand for gold and silver is PRIMARILY driving this rally. The alternative currencies silver and gold (to put it into crass breakfast flake marketing terms) are stealing market share from lousy fiat currencies like dollars, yen, and Yugos, errr, euros. Gold and silver remain in a long term primary uptrend, a bull market, and that has at least 5 more years to climb.

Today the US Dollar Index fended off attackers at 75, rose to 75.25, sank to 74.95, leapt back to 75.271, then faded from 11:00a.m. the rest of the day. Right now it remains at 75.022, down 4 basis points form yesterday and near the bottom of today's range. Altogether, it was a thoroughly equivocal day, blowing hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth. It says at least, "Dollar didn't break today." When you are the scrofulous US Dollar, that's success, I reckon.

STOCKS are set up now for a crushing and long lasting peak. Stocks were confused today, with the Dow up 20.03 to 10,246.97, the S&P500 down 0.07, and others up and down. The Dow traded in a narrow range, up and down and up, but had a tough time holding on. Maximum I expect to see in the Dow is 10,375. Sauve qui peut! Every man for himself! Get to the lifeboats now!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, November 09, 2009

If the Dollar Falls Through 74.90, it Will Trade Below 74 by the End of the Week, and the Gold Price Above that $1,200 Mark

Gold Price Close Today : 1100.80
Change: 5.70 or 0.52%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.47
Change: 0.11 or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1356.00
Change: 11.70 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 334.20
Change: 3.95 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.57
Change: 0.115 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,226.94
Change: 203.52 or 2.0%

US Dollar Index: 75.06
Change: -0.70 or -0.9%

Ahhh, suspicious souls like me watch the gold market trading all day from $1109 to $1106, see it close on the Comex at $1,100.80(up 5.70), see it climb back to $1,104-ish in the aftermarket, and begin to think the Nice Government Men must have had a tortuous day trying to play god in the markets.

Ouch, my aching manipulator! 'Twasn't the GOLD PRICE alone the NGM had to corral, but the US Dollar Index as well. It lost a weighty 70 basis points today. The market has driven the dollar back to the bottom of its current range. If it breaks 74.90, the trap door opens into the bottomless pit below. I keep on expecting the dollar to rally, but it has offered no technical confirmation so far. A double bottom at 74.90 would look hopeful at least. Test comes tomorrow. If the scrofulous dollar falls through 74.90, it will trade below 74 by the end of the week, and gold above that $1,200 mark.

The SILVER PRICE was trading above $17.60 (and therefore had broken out) and all the way to $17.75 this morning. Here again the queerest thing happened. Three-quarters to half an hour before the Comex close (13:30 Eastern) the silver price dropped like a rock from $17.65 to close on Comex at $17.47, up a measly 10.5. Queerer still, immediately thereafter the silver price rose back to 17.58 - 17.60. My, my, I do declare! What a queer day!

STOCKS rose 203.52 today to close at 10,227 Dow. S&P rose 23.78 to close 1,093.08. Seems plain that the Dow will reach that 10,375 or 50% correction mark, probably this week. Yet trust stocks not! They are like a chilled rattlesnake, upon which a man took pity and put it in his bosom to warm it to life, thinking that gratitude would keep it from biting. Alas, he misjudged the race!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, November 06, 2009

The Gold Price Has Entered a New Phase of its Bull Market and is Nowhere Near a Top

Gold Price Close Today : 1,095.10
Gold Price Close October 30th: 1,039.70
Change: 55.40 or 5.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.365
Silver Price Close October 30th: 16.246
Change: 1.1190 or 6.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,344.30
Platinum Price Close October 30th: 1,321.80
Change: 22.500 or 1.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 330.80
Palladium Price Close October 30th: 322.50
Change: 7.750 or 2.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.06
Gold Silver Ratio October 30th: 64.00
Change: -0.93 or -1.5%

Dow Industrial: 10,005.96
Dow Industrial October 30th:
Change: 203.82 or 2.1%

US Dollar Index: 75.761
US Dollar Index October 30th: 76.350
Change: -0.589 or -0.8%

Look at those metal's gains this week! Palladium Price up $7.75, Platinum Price up $22.50, Gold Price up - whooo! -- $55.40, and amazing Silver Price up 111.9 cents, 6.9%. Meanwhile dollar index shucked nearly 59 basis points, and stocks rose 3.2%.

The Dow in Gold Dollars has broken down through G$194 - 195 support and will drop farther. That implies trouble for stocks, soon.

If you look at the Dow over 10,000 you'd think it was strong, but when you look at today's chart, you'd see only confusion. Most indices rose slightly but a few smaller ones dropped. The Dow was a swinging pendulum, back and forth, back & forth, but ended the day at 10,023.42, up 17.46 and a marginal new high for the rally.

US Dollar Index climbed a measly two basis points to 75.761. Minor support lies at 75.50, major at 74.90. Momentum indicators are rolling over to the downside. If the dollar is bottoming, it must hold 75.50 this week.Otherwise, the dollar will visit 73.50 - 71.00.

The Gold/Silver Ratio topped Monday. Notice how much silver outpaced gold this week. That ought to continue.

At Comex close today gold rose $6.40 to $1,095.10, a new all-time high. Also it made a new all time intraday high at $1,101.30. Gold may be forming a long upward wedge. If so, that warns of a correction next week to $1,065. On the other hand, a close through $1,100 early next week will send gold running like a scalded dog.

Mayhap silver succumbed today to a bit of profit taking for the week, because it fell 3.5 cents to a Comex close at 17.36. Gold price up, silver price down equals confusion. That leaves me just a bit uneasy. The silver price remained range-bound today between 17.29 - 17.59, so a close above 17.60 is still needed to break out. The Big Resistance remains 18.00.

What's the bottom line? Gold and silver prices have entered a new phase of their bull market. Gold is not (as green, silly, and ignorant Wall Street and NPR commentators claim) at a top. In fact, it's nowhere near a top. Rather, having broken through $1,000 resistance & solidified and confirmed those gains, gold is now eyeing $1,300 and, later, much higher numbers. At a 52.5:1 ratio, $1,300 gold brings silver to $24.76. Buy, don't wait.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, November 05, 2009

Watch for the Gold Price to Pierce $1,100, Perhaps Tomorrow but Soon

Gold Price Close Today : 1088.70
Change: 2.00 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.400
Change: 0.5 or 0.0%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,356.50
Change: -9.50 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 330.80
Change: 2.40 or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.57
Change: 0.115 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,005.96
Change: 203.82 or 2.1%

US Dollar Index: 75.73
Change: 0.09 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE has formed a long sideways triangle, either a topping formation or a continuation pattern. Why should it break out to the upside? Because gold has just completed a correction, then recovered and broken through all-time high resistance at $1,065 to run to $1,097. Now it is trapped between $1,083 to $1,095. Watch for it to pierce $1,100, perhaps tomorrow but soon. A close below $1,065 cancels that interpretation.

The SILVER PRICE mirrors the gold price chart, but with different numbers. Silver is locked between $17.20 and $17.60, and needs a close above $17.60 to start its next leg up. Big number to beat is $18.00.

Looking at a five day chart of the US DOLLAR INDEX extorts a shocked sigh out of your body and the words, "O, mercy!" It appears now trapped beneath 76. 'Twill be pushed lower.

Today STOCKS rallied briskly ("suspiciously" a person more paranoid than I might say) and straight up from 9800 to 9950 - 10000 and traded there the rest of the day. Looked wierdly stalled, like it slammed into a wall. Stocks will either stop here and leave a double top behind as they fall, or they might in the next couple of days rally to 10,375. Either way, they're finished. Get away as fast as you can.

Dow in Gold Dollars rallied today (with stocks up) to G$189.99 (9.191 oz) but that's a long ways from the G$194-195 support/resistance.

Congress today passed a new stimulus bill. To put the nation's jobless back to work the 2009 Pants For Poor Naked Cats bill will employ roughly 2.7 million unemployed in the CCC (Cat Clothing Corps). Other millions in the garment industry will find work sewing the tiny pants and coats for the nation's now naked felines. One of the sponsors, Senator Manx of California, also pointed out the moral benefits of modestly covering the now shamelessly naked cats. Declaring a National Feline Emergency, President Obama immediately signed the bill and praised Congress' vigorous response, and promised the bill will invest $1.8 trillion in the domestic feline economy.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, November 04, 2009

The Gold Price has Broken Out

Gold Price Close Today : 1,086.70
Change: 2.40 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.395
Change: 22.4 or 1.3%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,366.00
Change: 13.10 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 328.40
Change: 1.50 or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.47
Change: 0.130 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial: 9,802.14
Change: 30.23 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index: 75.92
Change: -0.65 or -0.8%

New all time highs for the GOLD PRICE today: Comex gold closed $1,086.70, up $2.40; intraday high was $1,097.65, and traded much higher than Comex in the aftermarket, now $1094.90. Buy it. It has broken out. There is a time to hold, a time to fold, and a time to go all in. This is one of those times. To go all in, I mean.

The SILVER PRICE is the only fly in this sweet-smelling ointment. It is advancing well, faster than gold, but needs to clear $18.00 and run to confirm gold's move. Buy it, before time and the market leave you behind.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES are now launching the wildest and wooliest advance of the primary uptrend. Whooooo. It will suck the breath right out of your body, just to watch.

US DOLLAR INDEX today sank like a lump in a churn, shedding 65 basis points to stop at 75.92. A confidence game ends when confidence vanishes. Were I sitting on a pile of scrofulous dollars, nausea would now begin stirring in my vitals. If the dollar closes below 74.90, it will not stop shy of 74, maybe lower.

STOCKS rallied slightly today, but O so slightly. Dow rose 30.23 to 9,802.14 and S&P500 rose 1.09 to 1,046.50. Stop waiting for higher prices. Get out now.

Dow in gold dollars has broken down. Today it closed at G$186.46 (8.993 oz). Stocks have turned down. Disaster loometh for those foolhardy enough to remain invested in stocks. Flee the carnage to come!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, November 03, 2009

The Gold Price is Headed Much Higher

Gold Price Close Today : 1,084.30
Change: 30.90 or 2.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.171
Change: 74.0 or 4.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,357.50
Change: 18.10 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 326.25
Change: 1.40 or 0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.15
Change: 1.773 or 2.9%

Dow Industrial: 9,771.91
Change: -17.538 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 76.34
Change: 0.05 or 0.1%

HoHoHoHoHAAAAAA! Pardon me while I laugh with glee, long,uncontrollable, and immeasurable!

For nearly two decades, every time the manipulators in the Fed, US Treasury, and bullion banks wanted to drive down gold, they would drag out that old dead duck (the threat of IMF gold sales) and shake it in the market's face. Oh, my, that would send the market shivering, at least, those naïve folks who had not already witnessed the duck two dozen times.

So comes the time that the IMF finally really, really, decides to sell gold, 403.3 tonnes (12.966 million oz). Does gold strangle? Hardly. Decision was made 18 September, but the long-threatened gold never hit the market. Rather, the Reserve Bank of India gobbled up 200 tonnes (6.421 Moz) from 19 - 30 October at an average price of $1,041.96.

And the gold market? Did the mighty IMF garrotte the gold market with its big-bad sales?

Hardly. The GOLD PRICE ROSE $30.90 on the IMF sales news to close at an all time Comex high of $1,084.30! Viola! The dead duck has exploded, leaving only flecks and gobs of carrion all over the IMF.

Back to the markets: The gold price today rose $30.90 to close at $1,084.30. That's a new all-time high close, but more pertinent to our interest, it also is a big, garlicky breakout over $1,065 resistance, and a blaring alarm that gold is headed much higher. Do not hesitate: buy now. Buy at market.

The SILVER PRICE exploded up 74 cents today to close on Comex at 17.171. Before the end of the week, the silver price should close above $18.00. Buy, don't hesitate.

The US DOLLAR INDEX barely moved today, rising 4.8 basis points to 76.338. Parsing that with gold's jump, people are beginning to wonder whether gold isn't decoupling from the dollar. Probably premature on that, but 'twill happen. Is happening, slowly.

Stocks fell back today. Dow closed down 17.53 at 9,771.91, but the S&P500 rose 2.53 to 1,045.41. If stocks are to make that one last surge upward, it will have to begin tomorrow or next day. They can't keep hanging here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, November 02, 2009

As Long as Silver and Gold Prices Remain Above $16.00 and $1,025, They Have Bottomed and Resumed Their Advance

Gold Price Close Today : 1,053.40
Gold Price Close October 23: 1,055.60
Change: -2.20 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.431
Silver Price Close October 23: 17.711
Change: -1.2800 or -7.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,332.30
Platinum Price Close October 23: 1,358.50
Change: -26.200 or -1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 324.75
Palladium Price Close October 23: 335.55
Change: -10.800 or -3.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.11
Gold Silver Ratio October 23: 59.60
Change: 4.51 or 7.6%

Dow Industrial: 9,789.44
Dow Industrial October 23: 9,972.18
Change: -182.740 or -1.8%

US Dollar Index: 76.255
US Dollar October 23: 75.477
Change: 0.778 or 1.0%

So far I have to say that the week of 26 - 30 October saw GOLD and SILVER PRICES complete a correction, the dollar index probably turned up, and stocks may have topped.

As long as SILVER and GOLD PRICES remain above $16.00 and $1,025, we can rest confident that they have bottomed and resumed their advance. Of course they must confirm that, first by gold closing over $1,065. Falling stock market acts as weighty anchor on the SILVER PRICE. Today the GOLD PRICE rose to $1,053.40 at the Comex close, up 13.70. Silver rose 18-1/2 cents on comex to close 1643.1. In the aftermarket they are trading at $1,060.50 and 1650 cents.

Gold/Silver ratio should have topped today.

If the metals have resumed their rally, the gold price should head for $1,300 and the silver price for $24.75. I know, I know, it sounds crazy, but that's what the chart says.

The US Dollar Index has established bottom support at 75.80. Assuming that the chart is tracing out an upside-down head and shoulders, the rally target is 80. Remember that the Dollar is a slow turner. Other indicators (RSI, MACD) show the dollar trading near top of range, so no small chance remains that the dollar may turn down, crash through 75.80, and fall to 74 - 71. But as long as the buck remains above 75.80, presume it is rallying.

STOCKS are in trouble. Further they fall, more distant becomes that 50% correction at 10,375, and less likely. If the Dow breaks 9700 - 9600 in sharp succession, rally is probably finished. Today the Dow finished at 9,789.44, up 76.71 and the S&P closed 1,042.88, up 6.69.

The Dow in Gold Dollars has broken down past G$194 - G$195 (9.385 - 9.433 oz)which argues that stocks have topped.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.