Thursday, April 15, 2010

The Silver Price is Pounding on $18.50's Door and Ought to Burst Through Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1159.70
Change: 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.424
Change 2.0 cents or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1718.00
Change: -9.50 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 543.50
Change: -4.50 or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.95
Change: -0.030 or -0.0%

Dow Industrial: 11,145.25
Change: 22.14 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.47
Change: 0.28 or 0.4%

To my tastes, the GOLD PRICE today, finished cooking this correction. Yes, $1,161.50 has blocked gold the last two days, but today's low at $1,150 gave the five day chart the look of having completed an A-B-C correction. If I'm reading it right, tomorrow will follow through with a rise up to or through $1,170. Any close below $1,140 knocks all that in the head. Gold today closed $1,159.70, up 70 cents.

Rising 2 cents to close on Comex at $18.424 silver's chart mirrors gold, only stronger. The SILVER PRICE is pounding on $18.50's door and ought to burst through tomorrow. Think about this: even if the silver price fell to $17.50, it would abide in the same uptrend. Next target, $18.90.

Yesterday I wrote, "Today's Dow intraday high at 11,125.22 almost touched the 200 day moving average at 11,133.87." That was an error. I meant that 11,133 was the 200 WEEK moving average. The 200 DAY MA stands about 9,991. That may make no sense to you, but really it does. The rally since spring 2009 has carried the Dow above its 200 DAY MA but not above the longer term 200 WEEK MA. The Dow remains at or below its 200 Week MA.

Y'all can visit for daily charts of the Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq, and other stock indices. If you do today, you'll see how stocks vacillated today, opening down and dropping, rising again, dropping again, up and down, oscillating around unchanged and unable to hold on to all its gains. The Dow rose 22.14 to 11,145.25 &: the S&P 500 added a gargantuan 1.1 to close at 1,211.75. Time is ticking on the Dow, and it won't be long now till the alarm goes off. Only the fatally naïve and ignorant would buy this market.

Yes, I do understand that the Dow has risen to my 11,100 target and slightly past. Makes no significant difference to my outlook: the end is nigh.

The US DOLLAR INDEX climbed to 80.755, matching Tuesday's high and capping the chart with a double top. For three long days now the dollar has languished below the uptrend line stretching back to December, and below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Today's performance saves nothing, and puts a lock on a much larger fall unless the dollar can close above 80.75.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.