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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Any Close Tomorrow Below Today's Closes Will Carry Both Metals Down, at Least to the Old Lows

Gold Price Close Today : 1096.50
Change: -6.20 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.940
Change 05.2 cents or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1504.60
Change: -20.90 or -1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 420.75
Change: -19.75 or -4.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 68.79
Change: -0.615 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial: 10,374.16
Change: 91.75 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index: 80.79
Change: -0.06 or -0.1%

The GOLD PRICE fell below $1,100 in European trading and hit a low today of $1,090. On Comex it closed at $1,096.50, down $6.20. this amounts to a trip to visit the 20 day moving average at $1,094.20. RSI and MACD are positive and even with today's drop remain in an uptrend in force since the 5 February low. Tomorrow will tell us whether gold will re-visit that February low or climb over $1,100 and advance.

Yet here's what makes no sense. Gold dropped $6.20 below important $1,100 support, but the silver price smiled, rose 5.2c, and closed on Comex at $15.94c In the aftermarket it is flirting with $16.00. Today's trading looks like a V-bottom with a low at $15.638. Yet silver standing just below its 200 DMA while the 20 DMA crosses under the 200 looks wretched. Quick, remind me that a visit to the 200 DMA usually marks the END, not the beginning of a down-move.

Maybe there is no explanation, except that silver will trade sideways as it heals from the wounds of the last 3 months. Here's another guess. The correction that began over the weekend has run its course with today's lows and the next move for metals will be up. Obviously any close tomorrow below today's closes will carry both metals down, at least to the old lows.

The US DOLLAR INDEX surrendered 6 basis points today and tradeth now at 80.791. Its indicators are overdone and overdue for a fall, so maybe the dollar is rolling over gravity-ward. Let me slap myself here: the uptrend remains in force unless the $ index closes below 79.83, the 20 DMA. Yesterdays intraday high was 81.34, so the dollar has nearly reached my 81.50 target.

Hooray for post-industrial America! Dow rose 91.75 today, but the question gnawing at me is, Can it remain above the 20 DMA (now 10,192)? For now the Dow remains in a downtrend and nothing today changed that. S&P rose 10.64 to 1,105.24 while the Dow closed at 10,374.16.

On this day in 1836 Inventor Samuel Colt patented his revolver and did more for good manners than anyone since the man who invented the table napkin.

Sorry, but I won't be sending a commentary Thursday or Friday because I will be in Atlanta, speaking at the 10th Amendment Summit on Friday. For details see www.georgiafirst.org/governor/summit.html.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, February 23, 2010

I Suspect Gold and Silver Prices Will Proceed to Rise From Here

Gold Price Close Today : 1102.70
Change: -9.90 or -0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.888
Change -33.4 cents or -2.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1512.50
Change: -13.00 or -0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 431.00
Change: -9.50 or -2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 69.40
Change: 0.819 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,282.41
Change: -100.97 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.40
Change: 0.43 or 0.5%

I feel foolish! I get busy and don't notice that the month is draining away, so I forget that those black-shirts who sell options so often manage to drive down SILVER and GOLD PRICES around option expiry (today) so they don't have to pay off on all those calls they've sold. Turns out they didn't quite make it today, as there was a hunk of $1,100 calls and on Comex the GOLD PRICE closed at $1,102.70, down $9.90. Low was $1,099. There were a bunch of silver $16.00 calls, too, and the SILVER PRICE closed today at $15.888, down 33.4c and leaving those $16.00 calls high, dry, and worthless.

We will know that this explains recent price movements if silver and gold prices proceed to rise from here, which I suspect they will. Frankly, gold's performance in the face of this monthly storm was awfully stout, since it resisted closing below $1,100. Silver's close today, too, was above its previous low. The most any manipulation can effect is a short interruption of the trend.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today rose 42.8 basis points to 80.935, on its way to 81.50, the measured target from its flag formation. Dollar's fundamentals haven't changed a bit, merely the faddish financial crisis of the day. Be patient.

STOCKS keep adding evidence that they have indeed topped. Dow plunged 100.97 today to end at 10,282.41. S&P500 did worse, dropping 13.41 to 1,094.60. Lower prices will come.

Yesterday someone called with a direct mail flyer from some dealer offering to sell gold American Eagles for $1,110. Since that was about $42 lower than wholesale cost, I called a wholesaler friend and we got a good laugh. His comment was, "You and I both know there just cannot be anything legitimate about that."

I've traded gold since 1980, and I can promise y'all that NOBODY ever runs a sale on gold. Imagine a bank running a special selling $20 bills for $18. Won't ever happen. When you see it, you just know that somewhere ahead lies big trouble. Oh, yeah, you might find somebody who will cut his own commission and sell nearer to wholesale, until of course he goes broke, but nobody sells under wholesale.

Here's the king "Gold on Sale" story of all time. Back in the early 1980s a company calling itself "Krugerrand Corporation" used to run full page ads in the Wall St. Journal offering to sell Krugerrands at spot. Since at the time they cost 3% more than spot at wholesale, that offer had us all scratching our heads. Turns out, they didn't actually deliver the Krugerrands, they just sold them to you and took your money. (Shoot, if I never had to deliver the Krugerrands, I might sell 'em for half of spot.

Then things began to unravel, as always. Turns out the photo of the high rise building in Miami with the enormous Krugerrand Corporation sign across the top had been re-touched to add the sign. When the authorities finally went in, they opened the safe and found many bars that looked like silver and gold. Only catch was that they were wood painted silver or gold. Thus vanished the people's money. Over 30 years in business I have seen a lot of gold and silver firms vanish overnight. It has led me to believe the truth of one proverb: "If it sounds too good to be true, it is." Price isn't the only criterion.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, February 22, 2010

Unless Gold Closes Below $1,100 Look for Higher Silver and Gold Prices.

Gold Price Close Today : 1,112.60
Gold Price Close 12th February: 1,089.50
Change: 23.10 or 2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.222
Silver Price Close 12th February: 15.449
Change 77.30 cents or 5.0%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,525.50
Platinum Price Close 12th February: 1,516.00
Change: 9.50 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 440.50
Palladium Price Close 12th February: 422.40
Change: 18.10 or 4.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 68.59
Gold Silver Ratio 12th February: 70.52
Change: -1.94 or -2.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,383.31
Dow Industrial 12th February: 10,099.14
Change: 284.17 or 2.8%

US Dollar Index: 80.536
US Dollar Index 12th February: 80.220
Change: 0.32 or 0.4%

Strange, strange, strange. The GOLD PRICE was pounded today but the US dollar remained basically motionless.

Friday the US Dollar index rose to a high of 81.20 but closed at 80.59. Nothing deterred, SILVER and GOLD PRICES both rose strongly (the gold price rose $3.30 to $1,121.30, above $1,120 and the silver price rose 35.3c to $16.413). Today the US Dollar Index rose 1.3 meager basis points but the gold price dropped $8.70. Clearly, we must search some place other than the dollar to find the cause of gold's drop.

A writer named Paco Ahlgren noted on www.seekingalpha.com yesterday that the Fed's interest rate hike last Thursday actually drove gold and stocks up on Friday, rather than down. That's the way the gold price behaves when investors are worried more about currency depreciation (inflation) than earning interest. Very good point. Yet today the gold price dropped, even after closing above $1,120 resistance on Friday (nominally, at least). Ergo, let us cast about for another cause for gold's sickliness today. Can anybody spell Nice Government Men?

The Federal Reserve is in a trap, and all talk of reversing Fed policy is nothing more than propaganda to combat inflation fears. Raise interest rates? Remove the trillions of dollars injected into the money supply in 2008? Get serious, Ben! If they shrink the money supply or raise rates they choke off economic recovery in the midst of the worst depression in eight decades. Right, sure, they're likely to do that.

After posting a double bottom at $1,100 during Thursday trading the gold price took off upside. Here might be a non- manipulatory explanation for today's action. Gold appears to have completed the first leg up of a move off $1,100 and today has been correcting that rise. If that's wrong, then gold could break $1,100. If I'm correct, gold will rise tomorrow and break through $1,120 by Wednesday. Today gold closed down $8.70 at $1,112.60.

Last Thursday the SILVER PRICE double-bottomed around $15.70, and like gold took off skyward. Before the New York market opened today the silver price rose to $16.65. Then in NY silver sawed back and forth downward to a low today of $16.14. At Comex close silver was down 19.1c to $16.222.

Unless the gold price closes below $1,100 look for higher silver and gold prices. May not be fast, but will be higher. I continue to believe that we saw the lows on 5 February.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average spent most of today in negative ground, rising above unchanged only vainly and briefly. Dow closed down 19.04 at 10,383.31. S&P500
followed down 1.16 at 1,108.01. Friday most likely marked the top of this rally. Big plunge coming. Stay away.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, February 18, 2010

If the Gold Price Does Not Quickly Move Up, Then Before Us Stretches Another 12 or More Months of Frustrating Sideways Trading

Gold Price Close Today : 1118.00
Change: -1.5 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.060
Change -3.8 cents or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1527.00
Change: 11.00 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 436.20
Change: 20.30 or 4.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 69.61
Change: 0.071 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,392.90
Change: 83.66 or 0.8%

US Dollar Index: 80.46
Change: 0.08 or 0.1%


Y'all have to check this one out:

www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2010/02/17/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry6217403.shtml

The report itself is so incredibly uninformed that it can only pass along federal government lies. However, the bill Rep. Pitts has entered is as perfect as human labour could make it, answering every possible legal objection. If only one state will pass an act making silver and gold coin a tender (per US Constitution Article I, Sec. 10, go read it), then it will be the end of the Federal Reserve plague. Next Tuesday a rally will be held in Columbia for this bill. If you're within 500 miles, you ought to show up.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES are behaving a bit coquettishly around $1,120 resistance, but appear to be bulling their way through in spite of that. Between yesterday evening's aftermarket and very early this morning, gold dropped from an $1,127 high yesterday to just under $1,100, bounced, then hit $1,100 again without breaking, and climbed straight up off that double bottom. Comex closes don't show that since gold today Comex-closed at $1,118.00, down $1.50 & silver down 3.8c at 1606c. Yet (as often) in the aftermarket gold rose to $1,121, but now has dropped to $1,115.20

You need no X-ray vision to perceive that gold is leading the way while silver labours. That is normal in corrections. About now I am forced to re-evaluate my December conviction that the 3 December peak at $1,226 was not long term but intermediate. All hangeth upon gold's performance here. It must quickly run through $1,132 resistance, then $1,150, the last high. If gold does not quickly move up, then before us stretches another 12 or more months of frustrating sideways trading. Oh, I suspect the lows for silver and gold have already been seen, but whether they rally will be decided in the next few days at $1,120.

US DOLLAR INDEX made a false breakdown or fakeout day before yesterday. Today it stands at 80.459, up 8.3 bps from yesterday and still near the unresolved top of the 79.50- 89.50 trading range. Now looking at the chart you have to assume the scrofulous US dollar will rise further. If the dollar stops at our 81.50 target, no problem for metals. However, if the dollar runs wild and hits 89, the pain will be widespread.

STOCKS today exceeded their previous high of 10,315 and rose to 10,392.90, up 83.66. Big deal? Not really. Stocks could run to the January high over 10,700 and still launch into freefall. Stay out of stocks.

Today Joseph Stack flew his Piper Cherokee plane into a building whee regional IRS offices are located. It appears he did it on purpose. One wonders what depths of terrible desperation would drive a man to that. How many others stop just short of that desperation? What will push them over that line? If they do this in the green tree, what will they do in the dry?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, February 17, 2010

A Gold Price Close Above $1120 Confirms a New Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1119.30
Change: 19.30 or 1.75%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.15
Change 70 cents or 4.54%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1537.50
Change: 21.50 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 430.85
Change: 14.95 or 3.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 69.31
Change: -1.90 or -2.66%

Dow Industrial: 10,268.81
Change: 169.67 or 1.7%

US Dollar Index: 79.64
Change: -0.70 or -0.9%

Last Thursday I wrote, "Inertia for silver and gold has shifted now and turned upward strongly. Silver and gold will move higher soon."

Soon arrived today.

Break! The US DOLLAR INDEX has now twice failed at 80.50 and fallen back. Today it fell below 79.80, outside the trading range at 79.637, down 69.5 basis points. Dollar will fall much further.

The dollar was responding to investors rushing back into the Euro. News from Euroland (rhymes with "Disneyland") today was all smiles and marshmallows & high fructose corn syrup, following a "fix" of the Greek insolvency. Yes, yes, and the Easter Bunny will "fix" your deficit of chocolate eggs this year, too. Friends, the next global financial crisis hath arrived, namely sovereign debtor insolvency. This won't go away, nor will it get better, since the old age pension schemes of countries beset with falling birth rates (like social security in the US) all turn belly-up soon. This will involve not only the PIGS, but also US States. Right now California, Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Illinois, and Pennsylvania are teetering.

The SILVER PRICE opened at 15.72 and never even glanced over her shoulder, jumping o'er 15.90 and 16.00 and running all the way to 16.20 before she stopped. On Comex silver closed at 16.15c, up 70.1c or 4.5% [sic].

Today's leap clears the path for silver to jump quickly to 16.80. Will probably jump the 20 day moving average (now at 16.35) tomorrow or Thursday, announcing to the world the first confirmation of a new up-trend.

The GOLD PRICE started the day strong and ran strong all day, muscling through $1,100, $1,104, and $1,118 resistance but stopped by $1,120. That is the most important barrier, since a close above that level (the last high) confirms a new rally. On Comex the gold price closed at $1,119.30, up 19.30 or 1.75%.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO began dropping today. If anybody wants to trade gold for silver, you are looking at your last chance for a while.

Today STOCKS cleared Dow 10,150 & their 20 DMA but will most likely be stopped by the old high at $10,315 or the 50 DMA at 10,377. Stay away. Big break coming. dropped nearly two gold dollars to close at G$189.65 (9.174 oz). Uptrend of stocks against gold has been smashed.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, February 12, 2010

The Lows and Silver and Gold Prices Have Most Likely Been Posted

Gold Price Close Today : 1,089.50
Gold Price Close 5-Feb : 1,052.20
Change: 37.30 or 3.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.449
Silver Price Close 5-Feb : 14.823
Change: 62.60 cents or 4.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,516.00
Platinum Price Close 5-Feb : 1,481.00
Change: 35.00 or 2.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 415.90
Palladium Price Close 5-Feb : 400.00
Change: 15.90 or 4.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 70.52
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Feb : 70.98
Change: -0.46 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,099.14
Dow Industrial 5-Feb : 10,012.23
Change: 86.91 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index: 80.220
US Dollar Index 5-Feb : 80.383
Change: -0.16 or -0.2%

The weekly scoreboard never lies: Silver, gold, platinum, and palladium up, stocks barely up, dollar index barely down, gold/silver ratio down, Dow in Gold Dollars down.

Behold! The silver price rose more than anything else this week, up 62.6c or 4.2%. Behold also that these week end prices don't quite tell the entire story.

Stocks dropped 101.64 points Monday to close below 10,000 at 9,910.59. It was a week spent burning up ammunition (buying power). Stocks moved 468.18 points on the dow, but gained only 87 points on the week. Think: you shoot off all your ammo now, you won't have any later when you need it. In spite of two 150 point days, stocks rose from Monday only 134.10.

Today the Dow remained above 10,000 -- a little. Dow closed 10,099.14, down 45.14. S&P500 fell 2.96 to 1,075.51. Stocks may rally from here, but 'twill be full of sound and fury, signifying nothing because the next big move is down, toward the center of the earth or past it.

Just as silver and gold prices are hanging on decision's cliff, so is the US dollar index, that scrofulous substitute for money. Dollar index appears to have closed the week down only 16 basis points, but don't believe it. It spent most of the week below 80, and only today rose 22.6 basis points to claw close to unchanged.

Dollar has not yet made plain whether it will faint and return to the last lows at 74.50 or lower, or run for 81.50. It range-traded all week, between 80.50 and 79.55. Watch for a close above or below that range, because it will be a breakout that will continue in that direction. Dollar got a boost last week from problems with the PIGS -- Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, but mostly Greece. It always amuses me when the self-righteous invent sneering names like PIGS, implying that somehow it was the people's fault and not the banks' and the government's fault that their economy has blown up. What hogwash! Like sneering at how low American savings rates are, as if it were OUR fault as individuals that the dollar has lost 95% of its value since 1913, or it's OUR fault the New York banks, Alan Greenspan, and Ben Bernanke blew up a mortgage bubble, then made good their losses out of the taxpayers' treasury. As more proof of that hogwash, I know some Greeks, and they are one of the world's hard-workingest peoples. You could set a Greek and a Chinaman down on a desert island and the Greek would get rich selling giros to the Chinaman.

Forget the retsina and giros for a moment and return to metals. The gold price backed off yesterday's $1,094.20 close by $4.70 to close today on Comex at $1,089.50, but in the aftermarket the gold price is trading at $1,093.60. This $1,089.50 close doesn't really give anything up, since gold remained about the December low at $1,085.00. This week gold made good last week's bottom by clearing resistance at $1,075 and $1,085. Proof that gold has begun to rally again will come when it closes above $1,100. Confirmation of that rally comes with a close above $1,120, the last high.

The silver price gained more than the gold price this week, but had more to make up for. Right now $15.50 is blocking silver, so if it has any ambition at all it must close above $15.75 and then 16.00. Once above 16.00 it will move very quickly.

It appears the metals are out of the woods, but whether to rally again or move sidewise healing and recuperating remains to be revealed. Either way, lows have most likely been posted. Gold close below $1,052 disproves that.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, February 11, 2010

Inertia for Silver and Gold Prices has Shifted Now and Turned Upward Strongly

Gold Price Close Today : 1094.20
Change: 18.40 or 1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.592
Change: 29.0 cents or 1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1531.40
Change: 20.60 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 423.00
Change: 8.50 or 2.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 70.18
Change: -0.128 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,144.19
Change: 150.89 or 1.5%

US Dollar Index: 79.97
Change: -0.06 or -0.1%

The GOLD PRICE today smote its enemies hip and thigh and put them all to flight. Plainly Gold gave not a hoot what the US dollar did as it smashed through resistance from $1075 through $1085 and closed on Comex at $1,094.20, up $18.40. Gold stands at the moment of truth. Close above $1,100 climbs back above the uptrend line Close above $1,120 confirms gold has begun rallying again.

SILVER's Comex close today didn't quite tell the whole story. The SILVER PRICE has been battling $15.50 resistance the last two days. About 11:30 today the silver price gapped up through $15.50 and closed on Comex up 29c at $15.592.

Overhead hangs silver's 200 DMA at $15.90, and the huge support/resistance at $16.00. When silver clears $16.00 'twill run, probably reach $16.75 the first day. Inertia for silver and gold has shifted now and turned upward strongly. Silver and gold prices will move higher soon.

Diverse readers wrote after my denunciation yesterday of buying high premium silver or gold, numismatics and American Eagles silver and gold included. Did I really mean to include these coins or those coins? Yep, I meant to include everything, because over time, premium always disappears. An ounce is an ounce, and only ounces count in the long run. The rest is somebody trying to pick your pocket and line his own.

The five day chart for the dollar index really looks weird -- unnatural. It declined Monday and Tuesday from 80.50 to a spike low Tuesday at 79.55. So far, so good, then the mutation begins. Technical the last two days are an uptrend with lower lows and higher highs, but how is that an uptrend with a lower close today than yesterday? It dropped 5.7 bps and is trading now at 79.971.

Strangest sight is that both yesterday and today show upward spikes midday that utterly fail. Bottom of this range is 79.70-79.55, top is 80.30 to 80.50. Markets just don't usually trade this way, slapping back and forth between range boundaries. Looks as if the Nice Government Men are goosing the market but the market refuses to budge. Never mind -- a close above 80.50 turns the dollar index up, a close below 79.55 turns it down, and a close in-between goeth nowhere.

What, ho! Even a blind hog now and again findeth an acorn! Stocks today rallied 105.81 to close at Dow 10,144.19. S&P rose 10.34 to 1,078.47. Even as they rose, volume deserted them and petered out. With this jump the Bear is only seducing more victims into his lair, setting them up to gnaw their bones.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices are on the Edge of a Cliff

Gold Price Close Today : 1075.80
Change: -0.90 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.302
Change: -12.9 cents or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1510.80
Change: 7.70 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 414.95
Change: -4.55 or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 70.30
Change: 0.529 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,038.38
Change: -20.26 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.06
Change: 0.19 or 0.2%

Several times every day I answer the same question about premiums on SILVER and GOLD PRICES, so let me share that with y'all: over time, premium always disappears. That means that you will NOT re-capture at the peak of the market when you sell those premium dollars you spend today. It means that you should always buy the lowest cost per ounce silver or gold, consistent with liquidity (never buy anything so unusual that you can't re-sell it, like Iranian Pahlavi's or gold shot.)

Does that mean we do not recommend US silver Eagles? Right, because buying US 90% silver coin nets you 13% more silver today. Does that mean we don't recommend American gold Eagles? Right, because they cost from $15 to $40 an ounce more than other coins. Remember, you will NOT recapture those premium dollars when you sell a the peak, I don't care what all the boiler-room salesmen tell you about numismatic coins and proof Eagles and all the rest. The principle remains, well attested by history: over time, premium always disappears.

In the end, an ounce of gold or silver is an ounce. That's the only thing that counts in the long run. All else is marketing, "moichendizing" as Mel Brooks/Yogurt would say.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rose today 19.4 basis points to 80.057, but silver and gold prices held their own. The gold price dropped 90c to $1,075.80 at Comex close, silver dropped 12.9c to 15.302. In the aftermarket metals dropped a bit more, but not significantly. Today was a "pause," and a pause can mean a pause in a move, or it can mark a change of direction.

Silver and gold prices are on the edge of a cliff. They might fall over the cliff, or a powerful updraft might catch their parasails and carry them into the sky. Nothing has happened yet to tell us which way they will break. We are waiting for the gold price to break below its last low ($1,062) or above its last failed high ($1,120).

Dow Jones Industrials today closed down 20.26 at 10,038.38, close enough to the deadly 10,000 mark to chew away most of the fingernails on the Nice Government Men. S&P dropped 2.39 to 1,068.13. Today, tomorrow, or next week stocks will break big. They will break.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, February 09, 2010

I Am Buying Gold at These Prices. It will Look Like a Bargain a Year From Now

Gold Price Close Today : 1076.70
Change: 11.00 or 1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.431
Change: 35.3 cents or 2.3%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1503.10
Change: 26.50 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 419.50
Change: 10.30 or 2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 69.78
Change: -0.904 or -1.3%

Dow Industrial: 10,058.64
Change: 150.25 or 1.5%

US Dollar Index: 79.79
Change: -0.51 or -0.6%

Wondering why the markets today felt like a bimetallic thermostat in the hands of kids withblowtorches and dry ice? First a "senior source in the German ruling coalition" whispered to Reuters that an agreement in principle had been reached within the EU on bailing out Greece. Then a German government spokesman announced later that that rumor was unfounded. Still, the US dollar took a big hit and the Euro (known to me affectionately as the "Lame-o") stayed high for its best gain since November.

Beloved readers, the adults have all exited the building and left the teenagers and loonies in charge.

Ponder for a moment the Gold/Silver Ratio. It has risen to resistance above 70, not quite to 72.50. It catches my eye because in 2008 I did not pay close enough attention to a similar development. The Ratio broke through its downtrend line, but never rose, it just traded sideways. Then it rose straight up from 55 or so to 84. Two outcomes are possible: either the ratio fails here and turns down in earnest, or it keeps on rising. Turning down implies a silver and gold rally this spring with the SILVER PRICE far outperforming the GOLD PRICE. Rising implies another financial crisis like Fall 2008's, with gold outperforming silver. Since I cannot read the future -- at least not clearly or consistently -- I don't know yet which way it will break. I am beginning to suspect, however, that the problem with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) may be worse even than the 2008 problems with the US banks.

Either way, calm your hearts. Yes, you are witnessing the end of the 350 year epoch of central banking, and yes, it will be filled with turmoil, but something much better will grow on the ruins. Meanwhile, you had better get hold of real and not paper value. That means an unfailing revenue stream (your own business or a very safe job), silver or gold, a way to feed yourself (real food), against the backdrop of a genuine community.

There's no easy way to climb out of a slimy pit.

The GOLD PRICE today reached and climbed above support/resistance at 1,075 to close at $1,076.70 (up $11). This is good, yes, positive, but only steps along the right road and not reaching the goal, which is closing above $1,120. Personally, I am buying gold at these prices. It will look like a bargain a year from now.

The SILVER PRICE rose 35.3c today to close on Comex at $15.431. This, too, is good. Low today was $15.12 and high was $15.58, so although it bounced off $15.50 report it closed toward the high end of that range.

A lot of damage has been done to silver and gold prices by the recent plunges. It takes time to repair those wounds. Be patient, and keep on acquiring at lows.

US DOLLAR INDEX right now is trading at 79.79, down 51.2 basis points from yesterday, a big lick. Chart might be telling us that the advance has ended and dollar will plunge back to support at 74, or it may merely be correcting a completed upmove. A close below 78 supports the downward plunge interpretation. Otherwise, a trend in force remains in force until broken.

The Dow Industrials rose again above 10,000 today to close at 10,058.64, up 150.25 points. S&P500 rose 13.78 to 1,070.52. What else could the Nice Government Men do after the Dow fell through 10,000 yesterday? Bogusity, bogusity, all is bogusity.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, February 08, 2010

Was Friday a Key Reversal in Stocks and Silver and Gold Prices?

Gold Price Close Today : 1065.70
Change: 13.50 or 1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.078
Change: 25.5 cents or 1.7%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1476.60
Change: -4.90 or -0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 409.20
Change: 9.20 or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 70.68
Change: -0.305 or -0.4%

Dow Industrial: 9,910.59
Change: -101.64 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.30
Change: -0.08 or -0.1%


Was Friday a key reversal in stocks and SILVER and GOLD PRICES? Remember that a key reversal occurs when a market breaks to a new low for the move, but closes higher that day, then the next day rises above the previous day's close. Merely stating the definition gives us an answer, not by the Comex closes, but by the aftermarket.

The GOLD PRICE Comex close Friday was $1,052.20. The SILVER PRICE Comex close Friday was $14.823 and Today the Comex closes were $15.078 (up 25.5c) and $1,065.70 (up $13.50). Does that fulfill a Key Reversal Part 2? Not quite, because in Friday's aftermarket silver traded up to $15.20 and gold to $1,068. I can't pronounce that a completed Key Reversal, because that really would require closing on Comex today higher than Friday's aftermarket.

Here's what we know. Gold had lateral support at $1,065, and after that spike close on Comex (redolent of dead mackeral), it leapt back to that level, although it gained no ground today. Likewise, always-more volatile silver Comex-closed above $15.00, good, but mum as to future intent.

When you make trading rules for yourself, you must follow them, or be forever pingponged by emotion. We reached this support level at $1,065, and that was one of our targets to buy, for both silver and gold. Now, having done that, we wait to see whether they will confirm to the upside by rising above $15.50 and $1,085, or whether they will sink to next support at $14.50 and $1,025.

Finally, don't panic. Even markets in a primary uptrend zig and zag up and down. Go back and check your premise that led you to conclude silver and gold prices are in a primary uptrend. Have any of those drivers changed? US government stopped deficit spending? Federal Reserve stopped creating money out of thin air? Stocks escaped their primary down trend? Dollar exceeded 100 on dollar index? No, none of that has changed, and neither has the primary uptrend in silver and gold prices.

STOCKS clearly had no key reversal, because in spite of Friday's suspicious recovery late in the day, today they failed to fulfill the all-important second half of a key reversal, namely the higher second day close. Stocks today closed down 101.64 at 9,910.59. S&P500 lost 9.2 to close 1,056.99. That close below the psychologically critical 10,000 tolls the death knell for stocks. Big break is coming soon. mnnn

The US DOLLAR INDEX stopped to catch its breath today, dropping 7.8 basis points to 80.302 right now. RSI & MACD momentum indicators are waaaay overbought, signalling that a pause will arrive soon. "Soon" of course is relative, & overbought can get way overbought more. For now, the panic has bitten deep about the Euro. That will turn around, but I'm not sure when. Truth is, dollar could climb to 89.5. If it does, 'twill be a long, hard, dry year for silver and gold.

I point y'all to www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/willie020410.html, "Breakdown of the Gold Market" by Jim Willie. I bring this to your attention, as the lawyers say in cross examination, not for the truth of the matter asserted, but to show something else. I don't know Mr. Willie and am not familiar with his work, so cannot speak good or bad of either, but the thing speaks for itself. Whether his assertions about a shortage of physical gold are accurate or not, they will be. I have long expected that this bull market would prove the opposite of the 1970s', namely, that physical and not futures prices would drive the market. As demand explodes for holding physical silver and gold, the tiny size of supply and the shortfall will be made plain. Physicals will rise to a huge premium above futures, although many may not recognize it.

In fact, calling it a "premium to futures" clouds the issue, because in fact the market is discounting all paper silver and gold. It could also be termed a "backwardation" because the usual contango which makes futures months more expensive than metal for immediate delivery is reversed, and physicals become more expensive. Don't think it cannot happen, because it already did, in Fall 2008, when premiums on silver coin went to forty percent (40%) and gold coins to 20% and deliveries stretched out 4 - 6 weeks. That backwardation lasted from September through February 2009. Backwardation will strike again. It offers another reason to buy now, long before supply disappears, and don't be too squeamish about the price.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Saturday, February 06, 2010

The Bull Market in Silver and Gold isn't Even Near its End Yet

Gold Price Close Today : 1,052.20
Gold Price Close 29-Jan : 1,083.00
Change: -30.80 or -2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 14.823
Silver Price Close 29-Jan : 16.183
Change: -136.00 cents or -8.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,481.50
Platinum Price Close 29-Jan : 1,501.30
Change: -19.80 or -1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 400.00
Palladium Price Close 29-Jan : 418.25
Change: -18.25 or -4.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 70.98
Gold Silver Ratio 29-Jan : 66.92
Change: 4.06 or 6.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,012.23
Dow Industrial 29-Jan : 10,067.33
Change: -55.10 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index: 80.383
US Dollar Index 29-Jan : 79.482
Change: 0.90 or 1.1%

'Twas a day that brought Rembrandt, Reubens, Picasso, & other Nice Gvoernment Men eager to paint the tape.

Tell me not that the Dow Jones Industrial Average all by itself and with no help from the NGM on the Plunge Protection Team traded under 10,000 all day long, as low at 9,835, yet only decided to rise exactly at the close and ended at 10,012.24, up 10.05. (S&P closed up 3.09 at 1,066.20). Now I may have hayseeds falling off my shoulders, but I didn't fall off a turnip truck yesterday. Some artiste painted that tape. Stay out of stocks. Yes, I mark and understand that with the Dow in Gold Dollars at roughly G$195 (9.433 oz) shouts that gold has dropped just as much as stocks. Yes, I see that, and have little explanation for stocks & metals moving together other than "flight from the dollar." Therefore, when the flight turns the other way, both drop together. They will, at last, diverge, & likely this year.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rose today 44 basis points to 80.38, which has the forces of light running for cover. Sorry as the dollar is, 'taint as sorry as the Euro or Yen. Now that Greece, Spain, & Ireland (not to mention Portugal & Italy) look ready to default on their sovereign debt, the Frankenstein Euro might blow apart at its stitched seams. Hence the investor rats pouring over the sides of the SS Euro headed for the life raft Dollar. Once the air begins to leak & hiss out of the Dollar they'll jump ship again. I expect the dollar to rally as high as 81.50, but it could exceed that. Powering it is a panic, & panics cannot be predicted.

Speaking of "painting the tape," GOLD's low today was $1,052 and on comex it closed down $10.20 at $1,052.20. End of world, right? Wrong, in the artermarket it rose as much as $18. Silver closed on Comex down 52c at 14.823, but in the aftermarket has traded up 40c or so.

Silver has taken a rougher, further fall than gold. The Ratio has broken out upside to 70+, and should reach 72. If 72 doesn't stop it, it will revisit 84, painful as that is to say.

This is the perfect low spot in the road to stop and lift up our eyes to the mountains. Maybe we can figure out where we are. We will key off of gold, since silver will follow gold.

Possibly today Gold made its low at $1,065 resistance & the $1,052 spike was just that, a spike low. Gold will prove this by climbing through resistance/support levels above, namely, $1,075, $1,085, $1,100, then $1,120.

On the other hand, we now have to reckon as more likely lower prices because gold has broken that important resistance from $1,085 - $1,065. Beneath gold lies support at $1,025 & $1,000. Strongest support is the apex of the triangle formed in 2008 at $970. Could it fall to $680? Yes. It fell proportionately that much in 1974-76 correction that lasted 20 months, then came from a $103.50 low to reach $850 at the ultimate peak, an 8.2-fold increase.

Am I just alibing? Nope, such is the path of bull markets. The bull is always trying to shake off as many riders as he can, & right now he is shaking mightily.

But wait! If you're so sure gold is going to drop that much, why not sell it now and buy back lower? No, no, no, NEVER sell your position in a bull market. NEVER. If it goes lower, buy more but never, ever sell your position in a bull market. Most of all, remember that NOBODY knows where gold's correction will stop. Quite literally, we might have seen the low today. Where would you be then if you sold your position? Chasing the market and buying gold back at a higher price.

Calm your spirits & be patient. Risk takers can buy here. Most crucial to remember is this: the bull market in silver & gold isn't even near its end yet.


Y'all enjoy your weekend!


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, February 04, 2010

The GOLD PRICE Plummeted a Monstrous $49 to Close at $1,062.40 on Comex

Gold Price Close Today : 1062.40
Change: -49 or -4.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 15.343
Change: -96.7 cents or -5.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1502.0
Change: -74.00 or -4.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 411.85
Change: -25.65 or -5.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 69.24
Change: 1.101 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,026.52
Change: -244.03 or -2.4%

US Dollar Index: 79.92
Change: 0.55 or 0.7%

If I have to be wrong, I'd rather be spectacularly wrong, as I was today, than to do things half-way.

Apparently overnight the Euro was hammered over worries the currency might break up from fiscal mismanagement in the southern countries. That drove the US dollar up 55 basis points to 79.921 right now, and that sudden rise laid a sword on silver and gold prices.

SILVER dropped through 16.00 support and didn't stop until it hit 15.30. Comex silver closed down 96.7c at 15.343. The 200 day moving average, a frequent target in bull market downside corrections, is 15.82, so silver has exceeded that target.

DOW dropped 244.03 today to close at 10,026.52, barely holding above 10,000. S&P500 dropped even more percentage-wise (nearly 3%) to 1,065.81, down 30.99. Worth noting is the Dow in Gold Dollars at G$195.09 (9.437 oz) not much changed. That demonstrates that stocks and gold have been dropping in lock step.

Scariest thing is the Gold/Silver Ratio, which has risen to 69.24. It might stop here, but also might rise to 72.

The GOLD PRICE plummeted a monstrous $49 to close at $1,062.40 on Comex. That price marks the support of about $1,065 from the October highs.

Okay, where are we now? An airline pilot friend of mine once told me that flying a plane was hours of boredom punctuated by seconds of sheer terror. So, too, are markets. If silver & gold do not pull out of this dive, then gold will drop to $1,000 or $970, silver to 1500c to 1450c. Two interpretations are possible:

1. Gold today made the very last leg of its correction from 2 Dec 2009, stopping at 1,065 support, and will go sideways or rally from here.

2. Gold today broke $1,085-$1,075 support and will drop much further in an extended correction.

I will cautiously stand by No. 1, but want to see that confirmed by gold not making any lower closes plus gaining a little ground in the next few days. The US DOLLAR INDEX's breakout today above 79.50 clearly states that the dollar is headed higher, maybe as high at 81.50. That certainly won't help silver and gold, but it isn't by itself fatal, either.

For the bold & brave, today's lows offer another buy signal, if you can cinch up your courage and do it. Can you?

Before any of y'all go opening a vein over the metals' drop today, stop and reflect. You didn't mind crowing when silver & gold rose, so don't balk at eating a little crow when they fall. Remember the great H.L. Hunt's line, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." That advice was enough to help him make several hundred million dollars.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, February 03, 2010

The Gold Price's Next Target Has Become $1,124

Gold Price Close Today : 1111.40
Change: -6.00 or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.310
Change: -42.6 cents or -2.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1576.00
Change: 25.90 or 1.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 437.75
Change: 6.95 or 1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 68.14
Change: 1.376 or 2.1%

Dow Industrial: 10,270.55
Change: -26.30 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index: 79.43
Change: 0.41 or 0.5%

Nyah, yah, SILVER and GOLD PRICES backed off a little today, but not enough to break any meaningful support.

The GOLD PRICE today traded up to $1,124.60 overnight but couldn't crack $1,118 during Comex trading and fell back to close down $6 at $1,111.40. Today did not damage gold's uptrend. On the contrary, a small correction strengthens and solidifies the rally. What would prove that conclusion wrong? A gold close below $1,100. Otherwise, gold's next target has become $1,124.

The SILVER PRICE hit $16.95 overnight, then trended down the rest of the day. Low came at $16.25 and on Comex silver closed down 42.6c at $16.31. Silver has now verified and confirmed support at $16.30, and tomorrow should rise again.

The US Dollar Index staged a sharp rally from 78.70 nearly up to Friday's 79.50+ peak. It came up so sharply that it looked like a bear market rally where short-covering drives prices. On the other hand, if the dollar follows through tomorrow with a close above 79.50, it would means the dollar will be rallying higher still.

The DOW fell slightly, down 26.3 to 10,270.55, and is still correcting that rough January fall. Look for this present up move to stop somewhere between 10,306 and 10,468, that is, normal corrections at 38.2% and 61.8% of the foregoing fall. S&P500 dropped 6.04 to 1,097.28. Pray, ignore those Wall Street sirens who keep bleating that stocks will come back. True, they will, in another 10 years or so. Meanwhile, stay away from stocks.

I think when it warms up it's worse than suffering through snow. We had an ice-storm last Friday that came with snow, but today it was 40 degrees with the air itself breathing promises that spring would come again. In my front yard I noticed daffodils pushing up. Come springtime, I am not much good for anything indoors.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Buy Silver and Gold Here, or Wait Until the Gold Price Exceeds its $1,226 Top.

Gold Price Close Today : 1117.40
Change: 13.10 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.736
Change: 8.3 cents or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1580.20
Change: 30.10 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 442.95
Change: 12.55 or 2.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.77
Change: 0.454 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,296.85
Change: 111.32 or 1.1%

US Dollar Index: 72.00
Change: -0.24 or -0.3%

That eye-gougin', ear-bitin' knuckle duster I was expecting for gold at $1,104 never came to pass. The GOLD PRICE just shot through $1,105, ran to $1,118.50, and backed off. That's perfectly respectable performance. On Comex gold closed up $13.10 at $1,117.40. Tomorrow it will attack resistance at $1,118 - $1,125, and most likely conquer it.

The SILVER PRICE just clotted on the chart under $16.80, but didn't break through. It closed up 8.3c on Comex at $16.73.6. I think it could be laziness to point the finger at the Nice Government Men every time something goes wrong, but they have habits, and have habitually been beating up silver to hold the gold price back for the last 15 years or so. What better way to cast doubt on gold's performance?

Aww, never mind. Tomorrow the silver price ought to shoot through $16.80 and close above $17.00. There's no reason for it to stop yet. Buy silver and gold here, or wait until gold exceeds its $1,226 top.

US DOLLAR INDEX dropped another 24 basis points to 79.002. Looks sick. Is this a correction, or return to previous low? Still looks sick for a while.

STOCKS continued their rebound rally today. Dow climbed 111.32 to 10,296.85. S&P rose 14.13 to 1,103.32. Here is another sucker rally that won't re-gain more than 50% of the January fall. Stay out of stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, February 01, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices Have Turned Up, So Stop Waiting To Buy.

Gold Price Close Today :1104.30
Change: 21.30 or 2.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.653
Change: 47.0 cents or 2.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1550.10
Change: 48.80 or 3.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 430.80
Change: 12.55 or 3.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.31
Change: -0.610 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial: 10,185.53
Change: 118.20 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index: 79.19
Change: -0.20 or -0.2%

Friday I may not have made myself perfectly clear. I am always perfectly clear to me, but my wife says sometimes not to others. I was trying to admit how difficult it is to act and buy when a falling market hits your target while also pointing out that the GOLD PRICE had hit our downside target and made a double bottom at $1175. So it was time to swallow our fear and buy.

Also I wrote that confirmation of that bottom would come with a gold price close above $1,100 and a SILVER PRICE close about $16.80. Today gold closed much higher, up $21.30 to close on Comex at $1,104.30. Silver rose to $16.653, up 47c. So, gold unequivocally hit and breached our target, but silver not quite -- close enough for horseshoes, grenades, and rally confirmation, however. Silver and gold prices have turned up, so stop waiting to buy.

But wait! Why did the silver price fall further than gold last week? That is, why didn't it stop at its previous $16.80 bottom? 'Twould be explanation enough to say silver is more volatile than gold, period. It also might be an explanation to say that the Nice Government Men wanted to trash gold at its weakest last week, breaking it at $1075, and as always found it easier and cheaper to trash the much smaller silver market-- knowing that gold investors always keep one eye peeled on silver as a warning of future gold moves. But in speculating, I digress.

Bob the Technical Genius called today and opined that gold's pivotal test now awaits at $1,162. Either it clears that, or busts his Elliot Wave interpretation into tiny wavelets and drops washing gold far lower. Ignorant as I am, it interests me that $1,162 coincidentally was the January high and therefore also lateral support.

Don't be surprised if gold has to put up an ear-bitin', eye-gougin' fight tomorrow at $1,104 resistance. It will, and above that stands more fighting at $1,120, $1,132, and $1,140+. Tomorrow silver needs to close above $16.80. In fact, $17.00 would be even better.

Surprises, surprises, always surprises. That's life with markets, or any other human endeavor.

The US DOLLAR INDEX's five day chart looks like a rounding top, not a continuation. Could the dollar's rally stop here, drop again? Of course, but it ought to edge a little closer to that 81.50 target from the flag on its chart. If the dollar does fall then it betrays even worse weakness than I suspected. But remember: ALL (no exceptions whatever) currency exchange rates are manipulated by their governments and central banks in the short run, so every currency is a rattlesnake, ready to sink its fangs into your plans. Dollar index ought to rise still longer, but a close below 76.80 means it will pay another visit to 74.25.

The Dow Jones Industrials rose today, not so much on the US dollar's weakness as on exhausting downward momentum. In other words, the selling pendulum swung too far toward oversold, so it swung back the other way. It would have done that on news of the dollar dropping or on news of US tiddlywinks team potting a nurdled wink and upsetting the odd-on favorite UK team. Fullness of time was in the market, not in outside events. Stay away from stocks!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.