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Monday, March 29, 2010

Gold is on Track for Higher Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1110.30
Change: 6.00 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.373
Change 38.1 cents or 2.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1627.10
Change: 29.70 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 474.00
Change: 18.65 or 4.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.91
Change: -1.080 or -1.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,841.21
Change: 5.06 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 81.28
Change: -0.16 or -0.2%

Surprise, surprise, stocks rose today. Well, what did y'all expect? It's Monday, and the Nice Government Men needed to clean that first item off their agenda.

Stocks are stymied at Dow 10,900. Last week the Dow hit a high of 10,955.48, but without a close anywhere near that. Remember it kept trying to rise but could never hold on to its gains. Today's close was 10,896.31, up 45.95. S&P500 rose 6.66 to 1,173.25. A top lies down the road 30 - 45 days, I suspect.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is pounding on the cellar door at 81.20. Once it steps through that door it will fall down the stairs to 80.50 or even 79.50. Intraday his of 82.25 last week looks like the short term high, so Dollar is now entering a downward correction.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS dropped back from its G$205 high last week to G$201.84 (9.764 oz) today. Remember I mentioned last week that either stocks were about to soar while gold plummeted, or stocks were close to their peak & gold to its bottom. Today's trading fell on the side of gold's bottoming and stocks peaking.

The silver price today popped its head above that $17 fence and jumped clean over, up 38.1c to 17.373 at Comex close. That's also above its 200, 50, and 20 (now 17.12) day moving averages. Silver is hanging on the edge: it closed right on the downtrend line, so if it pierces that tomorrow, and that seems likely, it will dash for 17.65.

Lots of steam -- this move has higher to climb.

Gold shook of that $1,105 resistance but wasn't quite energetic enough to climb through $1,118. High today was $1,114.64, and Comex closed up $6.00 at $l,110.30. Gold is on track for higher prices.

On this day in 1834 the US Senate voted to censure President Andrew Jackson for removing federal deposits from the Bank of the United States. Bank of the US was that day's equivalent of Goldman Sachs.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, March 26, 2010

Gold Price Head and Shoulders Formation Gives a Target of $1250

Gold Price Close Today : 1,104.30
Gold Price 19th March: 1,107.40
Change: -3.10 or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.892
Silver Price 19th March: 17.017
Change -12.50 cents or -0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,597.40
Platinum Price 19th March: 1,609.00
Change: -11.60 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 455.35
Palladium Price 19th March: 467.00
Change: -11.65 or -2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.37
Gold Silver Ratio 19th March: 65.08
Change: 0.30 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial: 10,850.89
Dow 19th March: 10,741.98
Change: 108.91 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index: 81.623
US Dollar 19th March: 80.772
Change: 0.85 or 1.1%

The story is told that once upon a time a man jumped off the Empire State building. As he fell, the people on every floor could hear him yell, "So far, so good!"

I could say the same about silver and gold today: "So far, so good." Thru the week I have been gazing at the gold chart and the upside down head and shoulders forming there. Question was, would the right shoulder hold at $1,085. So far, so good. Gold stayed below $1,095 for two days, then this morning early smashed through that line. I was talking on the phone and gold stood at $1,091. Ten minutes or 15 minutes later it was $1,101, then $1,105. On Comex later in the day gold closed at $1,104.30, up $11.40. Thus it should have behaved, if that really is an upside down H&S.

A H&S, of course, is a reversal formation, slow forming but quite reliable. To estimate a target, you measure the depth of the head to the neckline, then add that to wherever it breaks out. Just eyeballing it right now it gives a target of $1,250, but bear in mind that a close below $1,085 gainsays my interpretation.

Wednesday and yesterday the silver price stood off every attacker at 16.50 and yielded not a foot to the miscreants. Today it surpassed yesterday's 16.82 high to close on Comex at 16.892, up 16c. Can you imagine how much resistance is clustered up at 17.00, with every smart guy in the world sure that silver will drop further? Yet Monday or Tuesday silver ought to cross that mark. Only resistance to speak of up there is 17.50 - 17.80, then 18.90. As with gold, silver must hold on to its gains so far, and must not close below 16.50. That would negate any upward move.

THE US DOLLAR INDEX lost 49.7 basis points today. If it gets any more schizophrenic, somebody's going to have to put the dollar in one of those custom tailored jackets with sleeves that belt in the back. Day before yesterday it rose 107 basis points, yesterday 34 basis points, still a big move, then today it plunges 50 basis points. Points to lots of nervous longs who don't necessarily trust their gains to last over the weekend and so pull out on Friday to enjoy a peaceful weekend martini out on Lon-gisland. Yes, the scrofulous dollar remains in an uptrend, I suspect it has blown out all its fuel. Like a rattlesnake you think is dead, you still have to be careful cause it might be alive enough to bite you.

Dow today looked pitiful, a sorrier re-play of yesterday's sorry performance. It was up most of the day, then dropped off about 12:30 and could do more than wallow back and forth over unchanged. Closed the day at 10,850.89, up 9.68 while the S&P500 rose a microscopic 0.06 [sic]. Stocks are rolling over. Stay away.

Spring peepers are out and my yard's full of daffodils and forsythia, and new calves are appearing in every pasture. Enough of winter already!

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, March 25, 2010

USD Dollar Will Sag Soon, and When It Does Silver and Gold Prices Will Come Roaring Back.

Gold Price Close Today : 1092.70
Change: 4.10 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.727
Change 10.1 cents or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1608.00
Change: 29.40 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 450.05
Change: 6.40 or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.33
Change: -0.150 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,841.21
Change: 5.06 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 82.18
Change: 0.34 or 0.4%

All right, GOLD and SILVER PRICES didn't blast off today, but they sparkled, and that's all they needed to do.

The GOLD PRICE today rose $4.10 to close on Comex at $1,092.70. That's no colossal rally, but gold didn't need that. It only needed to show itself able to hold on above $1,085. It can bump along there for a few days, as long as it doesn't close below $1,085. Holding the line here tends to prove that the upside-down head and shoulders I am seeing really is there. This looks more and more like a buying opportunity. Number for gold to beat tomorrow is $1,095, where all the selling took place today.

The SILVER PRICE clung to $16.52 support today, but couldn't climb over $16.80 resistance. Closed on Comex up 10.1c at $16.727. In a fight like this, crossing that lower line brings a brutal tumble, but silver seems to be holding its own. One thing is sure: lower prices have bought buyers back into the market with enthusiasm and deep pockets.

Don't get short metals here, i.e., do not sell. Buy some, but don't sell. That dollar will sag soon, and when it does silver and gold will come roaring back.

US DOLLAR INDEX poked its head up today again, climbing a large 34.2 basis points to stop at 82.18. Dollar is approaching at least a short term top, but might sprint to 83 before it ends. Uptrend still in progress.

Someone wrote to ask me today what was keeping the US dollar up? Two things. First, the Federal Reserve has been slowing the rate of money growth, so that means fewer dollars sloshing around the world. Not that they've stopped inflating, they're just inflating more slowly. Second, the Euro has been under fire because it appears that the EU will have to bail out Greece or Portugal, or Greece and Portugal and Ireland and Spain and maybe Grand Tortugas as well, which would mean they will print more Euros and debase them. So the dollar is doing well for the same reason a poor man at a car lot buys a clunker: better some ride than none at all.

All stock indices except the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped today. DJIA rose 5.06 to 10,841.21, but after rising to new high ground -- not quite a key reversal, but a stinking performance anyway. S&P dropped 1.99 to 1,165.73. Dow in Gold Dollars has reached G$205.36 (9.934 oz) and is trying to punch through all that resistance above it. It must be near its maximum for this move.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Right Here is Where The Gold Price Will Test Your Betting Blood

Gold Price Close Today : 1088.60
Change: -14.90 or -1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.626
Change -38.6 cents or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1578.60
Change: -28.10 or -1.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 443.65
Change: -20.85 or -4.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.48
Change: 0.610 or 0.9%

Dow Industrial: 10,836.15
Change: -52.68 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index: 81.97
Change: 1.07 or 1.3%

Well, right here is where the GOLD PRICE will test your betting blood. If gold has been forming an upside-down head and shoulder since December, then today should have formed the bottom of the right shoulder and the gold price is readying back for another crack at $1,132. If gold is not forming that upside-down H&S, then it will drop lower, testing $1,050 and even $970.

Today on Comex gold closed at $1,088.60, down $14.90.

Me, I would not be shorting this market and in fact would be buying.

Silver likewise could be interpreted over a range from terrifying to hopeful. The SILVER PRICE closed slightly below its 50 day moving average ($16.75) and 20 DMA ($17.02), a bad omen. On the other hand, the silver price is famous for crashing it uptrend then turning around and dashing. Two days before the last rally began (late February) silver dropped below its 20 DMA and 200 DMA.

The silver price won't keep us waiting long for a decision. 'Twill either drop sharply tomorrow or hold about here. Anything other than a sharp drop is positive and will show more positive results in a few days. The silver price closed down 38.6c at $16.626. Low was $16.51.

Interesting that I received two e-mails today castigating me because silver and gold prices weren't rising. When people throw in the towel that way it
often points to a bottom.

The dollar fooled me completely yesterday. Instead of falling overboard, it completed its little correction and rose massively today. It may sound crazy to say this now, but today probably posted a short term top for the Dollar. Not to say it might not climb more later, but after jumping up a weighty 107.4 basis points today to 81.97, it's hard to picture that folks with big profits won't rake some off the table, precipitating at least a small correction.

Try as it might the Dow couldn’t burst through 10,880 today, and as the day wore on it just kept eroding. Lost 52.68 points to close at 10,836.15, while S&P500 fell 6.45 to 1,167.72.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Tomorrow Ought to be a Better, Higher Day for Gold, On Its Way to Challenge That Resistance at $1,125 Again

Gold Price Close Today : 1103.50
Change: 4.20 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.012
Change 0.92 cents or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1606.70
Change: 10.20 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 464.50
Change: 7.50 or 1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.87
Change: -0.104 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,870.76
Change: 84.87 or 0.8%

US Dollar Index: 80.82
Change: 0.17 or 0.2%

Yesterday's GOLD PRICE weakness pushed the Dow In Gold Dollars (DiG$) barely through G$200 resistance that has so long blocked the DiG$ path. Today it fell back to G$203.64 (9.851 oz), still barely above resistance. The DiG$ is signalling either (1) stocks are about to soar and the gold price to plummet, or (2) stocks are very close to their peak and the gold price to its bottom. No need to enunciate for y'all which side of that conundrum I come down on. In truth, it begs that sort of faith that believes in politicians' integrity to believe that the DiG$, locked as it has been since August 1999 in a primary downtrend, will now stage a major rally. Especially not after that long rally from the March 2009 low.

Recall that yesterday the gold price eeked out a spike bottom low. Well, today it gave an encore performance, but a slightly higher low, and it closed above $1,100 -- not by much, but some, namely up $4.20 to $1,103.50. Now even the naïve and inexperienced could look at gold's five day chart and perceive that double bottom. Unless gold closed below $1,100, tomorrow ought to be an better, higher day for gold, on its way to challenge that resistance at $1,125 again. Last few day's trading does not yet gainsay my working interpretation that we have the gold low behind us in February at $1,044.80 (intraday). I continue to buy on these weak days.

The SILVER PRICE, believe it or not, remaineth above its 20 day moving average ($16.99), and closed today on Comex up 9.2c at $17.012c. Clearly that $17.00 has become the battlefield where silver's fate will be decided. Like gold's five day chart, silver's shows a double bottom that looks quite firm. Assuming that $16.92 holds, silver will keep on climbing.

Now y'all might hardly credit this, but the scrofulous US dollar Index hath carved out a double top, yesterday and today at 81.10-ish. So unless the disgusting dollar can close above 81.10, it will turn down again, and down means bouncing back to support at 80.20. Still in an mid-term uptrend, but wavering, sickening, leaning its head over the rail and liable to fall overboard.

Dow Jones Industrials rose again today 84.87 points to 10,779.76, probably on its way to next resistance and propaganda coup at 11,100. S&P rose 6.90 to 1,172.71. Friends, this is all wet cardboard, made to look like a strong economy with plenty of NGM money to prop it up. Trouble is that when you get close and poke with your finger, it punches right through. Stay out of stocks, for your capital's sake.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, March 22, 2010

Clearly $1,100 has Become the Line in the Sand for the Gold Price

Gold Price Close Today : 1107.40
Change: -20.00 or -1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.017
Change -39.0 cents or -2.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1596.50
Change: -12.50 or -0.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 457.00
Change: -0.20 or -0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.08
Change: 0.309 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial: 10,785.89
Change: 43.91 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 80.77
Change: 0.55 or 0.7%

The GOLD PRICE today reached $1,092.20 below and $1,108.55 above. Comex-closed at a morale-bruising $1,099.30, down $8.10. Today's trading traced out a spike bottom about 10:30 and gentle recovery the rest of the day. Clearly $1,100 has become the line in the sand.

The GOLD PRICE, meseemeth, is building a long, narrow triangle that will leave us all hairless with frustration. If so we might have seen the low today. On the other hand, a close below $1,090 - $1,085 would buy gold a ticket to $1,050, the last low close. Then I squint and look at the chart another way and again that upside-down head and shoulders emerges. If that is ruling the action, the gold price won't drop below $1,085 at most.

Doesn't matter, y'all are presently watching bargain gold and silver prices. Buy some here, and more if it drops.

The SILVER PRICE landed on its uptrend line today and even pierced its 50 day moving average ($16.82). After bumping along $16.60 - $16.65 from 9:00 to 10:30, the silver price rose sharply toward $17.00. Comex closed $16.92, down 9.7c, but the silver price is now trading at $16.99. If silver loses its grip here it must reckon with a fall to $16.50 - $16.00 and a sterling buying opportunity. (Yes, yes, that is a play on words. Sterling - silver -- get it?)

STOCKS did NOT pass the second day test of the Key Reversal posted Friday, namely a lower close today. The Dow ascended a lofty 43.91 points to roost at 10,785.89. The S&P500 took wing, but somewhat like the kiwi or dodo or their ilk, and soared a mere 5.91 points.

Odd, isn't it, that roughly 75% of Mondays in the last year have been up-days for stocks? Odd, odd, odd, as if the Nice Government Men come into the office on Mondays and first on their list stands "Goose stocks." Matters not: stay away. Yet 45 days and mourning will haunt stock markets.

The DOLLAR INDEX, remember, hit 81.30 in mid-February, then again at end-February. Friday's jump to 80.772, although certainly ranked as a breakout above the then-ruling downtrend, does not so qualify in the 30-day view. Generally a breakout on strength ought to move on, but not with the dollar today.

Yet here also might be the oft-witnessed touchback to breakout point or the "final kiss good-bye." A market breaks out (up or down), then reverses and touches back to the breakout point before roaring away in the same direction as the breakout.

Good chance we are seeing that in the $ index, but a close below 80.20 would drag the dollar back into that downward channel. Recall that the Dollar remains in an uptrend in spite of a sickly day.

Y'all realize what I do with these commentaries might easily be termed "entertainment." The reason is simple: most days nothing happens in markets. It's like a pregnant woman. Something is happening, but you can't see it, you can only guess what's happening by what you can see. Then suddenly a very big and decisive event happens that clarifies beyond all denying what has been happening all along.

Markets are the similar. Most days nothing decisive happens. You just watch, waiting for that watershed moment. In between, it's not action, just entertainment.

That's why it's so crucial to your success in investing to identify the primary (15-20 year) trend and align your investments with that trend. Like buying stocks at 776 in 1972 and selling at 11,722 in 2000. Or buying gold and silver in 2001 at $254 and $4.01. That's the first principle of investing: always line up with the primary trend, never against it.

So most of what I do is entertain, and encourage y'all to stick with the primary trend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, March 19, 2010

Somebody Hit the Gold Price With a Nine-Pound Hammer Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1,107.40
Gold Price Close 12th March : 1,101.70
Change: 5.70 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.017
Silver Price Close 12th March : 17.024
Change -0.70 cents or -0.0%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,609.00
Platinum Price Close 12th March : 1,608.40
Change: 0.60 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today: 467.00
Palladium Price Close 12th March : 462.10
Change: 4.90 or 1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.08
Gold Silver Ratio 12th March : 64.71
Change: 0.36 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,741.98
Dow Industrial 12th March : 10,624.69
Change: 117.29 or 1.1%

US Dollar Index: 80.772
US Dollar Index 12th March : 79.802
Change: 0.97 or 1.2%

If y'all wonder why I so often sound like a man obsessed with hands -- "On this hand . . . On that hand . . ." -- it's because I have so often been humiliated by the market that I understand that on any given day, there's a 50% chance the market will ascend, and a 50% chance it will descend. Hence it behooves one to set limits for either direction.

I have been hedging my bets and tempering my loathing for the scrofulous US dollar by noting that it must close below 79.50-79.60 before it would plunge, and that otherwise it remaineth in an uptrend. That's why today I am not too embarrassed to report the dollar index rose 54.7 basis points to 80.772. That raises other questions because it riseth above the 80.30 resistance that has so often in the last days turned the dollar index back. That sets it on the track to re-visit the February 81.34 intraday high, or even hit my longstanding 81.50 target. When the dollar index approaches that level, we'll see whether it can conquer that bastion of resistance.

Somebody hit the gold price with a nine-pound hammer today. It was just walking on down the street between $1,120 and $1,125 when suddenly it keeled over -- WHAM! -- then gapped down just above $1,115 and hit $1,107 before it began trading sideways even a little. Low came at $1,102.32, but the damage was all done in the space of 30 minutes at most. On Comex gold settled at $1,107.40, $20 lower than yesterday.

That scrambles the outlook for gold. It closed beneath the 20 day moving average (first harbinger of a trend change) and worse, outside the existing uptrend line -- not far, but outside.

Now we must ask, will the gold price follow through toward the center of the earth, or lower. I doubt it, because it has kept on showing trading range behavior, where it can't pierce the top of the range but doesn't fail at the bottom, either. No, the low was posted in February with that $1,050 close, and now we are privileged to be tortured by range trading.

How can you know I am wrong? Sufficiently dispirited, the gold price might trade as low at $1,090, or it might not break $1,100. I certainly would buy gold if it does sink that low, and more if it sinks lower. Remember, gold remains in a long-term primary uptrend (a bull market) and presently we are watching only a correction. That's your chance to buy gold on sale, so don't miss it.

Yesterday I warned that if the silver price fell below 17.30 it would tumble. Today it plunged in tandem with the gold price, falling 39c to close on Comex at a face-saving 17.017. Yet here is an oddity: silver remains above its 20 DMA and above its uptrend line. Still, other indicators (RSI and MACD) appear to have rolled over earthward or are about to. Short term silver remains in an uptrend, but longer term it still wallows in the descent from the December high. Next week could see lower prices, with a target of 16.50 support or even the 200 DMA (now 16.20). A close above 17.64 reverses the outlook.

STOCKS today made the first half of a key reversal, namely, a break to new high territory with a close lower than the day before's. Next half must come on Monday, a close lower than today's. That might be the top for stocks.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, March 18, 2010

To Confirm a New Rally the Gold Price Still Must Exceed $1,140

Gold Price Close Today : 1127.40
Change: 3.40 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.407
Change 09.5 cents or -0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1624.60
Change: 7.40 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 477.50
Change: -2.60 or -0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.77
Change: 0.546 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,779.17
Change: 45.50 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 80.25
Change: 61.20 or 0.5%

The GOLD PRICE cared not a fig for the US dollar index's 61.2 basis point rise (to 80.30), and rose itself $3.40 to $1,127.40 when Comex shut down. Maybe that interest in gold hatched as investors look at the game of Dumb and Dumber played by the Dollar and Euro and decided not to play.

Yesterday the gold price sagged but failed to break on three trips to $1,118, and rose today to $1,127.40. However, silver fell 9.5c to $17.407. Whenever silver and gold prices close against each other that always whispers "CAUTION!" Yet for the nonce and barring any gainsaying breakdown, let us give gold the benefit of the doubt for sake of the big biceps shown at $1,118, while we picture that tomorrow it completes a rounding bowl pattern and closes at or above $1,132. To confirm a new rally the gold price still must exceed $1,140.

If the SILVER PRICE falls through $17.30 'twill fall much further. On the other hand if it closes above $17.60 twill fly. Like Gold, the silver price remains in an uptrend. Yet it needs to advance because in this world you are either moving forward or sliding backward, with very little opportunity to stand still, rest, dip snuff, and generally relax.

Yesterday and today the US $ Index neared its 50 day moving average (79.41) & used that as a springboard to jump back to 80.30 resistance. Mercy, what a lot of bootless back and forth! Over the past 3 weeks the dollar index has traced out a rounding top that has now rolled over and nearly out of bed onto the floor. Or, to ransack my imagination for another metaphor, think of it this way: Place a dinner plate face down on the table near the edge. Now ease it out over the edge a half inch, hanging over the tile floor. Do it again. And again. How far can you keep pushing the plate over the edge until gravity punishes your impudence? That's where the US dollar index stands, thumbing its nose at gravity.

The dollar index rose today, but I haven't a clue why. First the Germans are, then they are not, going to help bail out Greece. First they don't want the IMF involved, then 20 minutes later they do. Finally the Germans sort of backed a bailout, and maybe that pushed the dollar up by casting the shadow of monetary and financial moronism over the Euro. Indeed, this doesn't seem a sensible game of chicken for currencies to play,
namely, Who Among Us Is Least Stupid?

STOCKS bettered January's high, so the Dow is likely to reach 11,100. Now The Moneychanger Law of Government Subsidies clearly states, "Government money always decapitalizes whoever takes it," but it appears otherwise right now in the stock market. The Nice Government Men in the Plunge Protection Team have poured in money. Momentarily it looks like they are winning, but only momentarily. After the wine and dancing comes the repentance in dust, ashes, headaches, lawsuits, and a crashing stock market. Keep watching, but yield not to the temptation to join the conga line.

This morning was our first splendid spring day after too many cold, gray ones. Driving down Robinson Branch I saw by the branch a two clumps of daffodils. I stopped and cut them, and as I was walking back ot my car saw in the lane across the road another clump. I jumped the flowing shallow ditch and bent over to cut them. When I lifted up my eyes, I saw a "crowd, a host of golden daffodils," blanketing a quarter acre of the forest floor. Oftimes daffodils are all that remains of an old home site. People die, the house decays and falls, fences disappear, but year after year the daffodils appear to recall that this place was once home to love.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, March 17, 2010

The Gold Price Gapped Up Today, Which Most Always Means a Lift-Off

Dear Readers, yesterday's commentary carried a terrible misstatement, and it couldn't have been more untimely. Apparently between the time it left my hands and the time it was sent to you, the devil, aliens, or the Nice Government Men got to it and changed "Gold is forming an upside-down head and shoulders. . ." "The Dollar is forming an upside-down, etc." It was confusing, but in the context I hope you could understand that before the saboteurs got to it, I meant that the GOLD PRICE and not the dollar was making that reversal formation.

Couldn't have been more untimely, since I was explaining to you that was one of the factors forcing me to conclude that gold had finished its downside penance and was about to rise. Whoa! Today the gold price arose with a vengeance, sending Nice Government Men all over Washington puking in their waste baskets. Shot clean through all that $1,105 resistance mess, clean through $1,118 resistance, and on to an $1,128 high, coming to rest on Comex (where the public is always fleeced) at $1,127.00, up $21.90.

Friends! Behold! The gold price gapped up today, which most always means a lift-off for higher stratospheric regions. If this move truly is as strong as it promised today, then it must advance again tomorrow, not spend time trifling here -- ought to burst through $1,132 and knock on or through $1,140 tomorrow. Recall that's where gold stalled on its last trip, well, $1,144.80, so a close higher than that forces the presumption that gold has burst forth into a rally. A closely following close above $1,160 must confirm that. On the downside, a close below $1,118 gainsays all the above.

And in the heavens there was silence for the space of 30 nanoseconds, and all the inhabitants of Babylon and of Wall Street gazed up into the heavens at their loudspeakers, and Behold! the Angel of the Fed did speak, and all those who bought and all those who sold and all those who just watched and hoped that someday they might buy and sell did listen, and the Angel of the Fed announced the decision of the Council of the Fed in the firmament assembled, and the Angel of the Fed said, "Nothing. We are doing nothing. For a long while yet." And all those dollar buyers who had looked to the Fed for salvation found themselves downhill of a Great Stone rolling over their bodies and their wallets as the Dollar Index tumbled down and down and down, 57.8 basis points, before it rolled to a stop at 79.673, which just happened to fall at dollar support. And the Angel of the Fed flapped his paper wings in dismay, and scowled, well-knowing that if the dollar index breaketh 79.60, it will accelerate like a Democratic politician from Detroit at a congressional hearing on sudden-acceleration-syndrome in Toyotas. Yea, the Angel feared, the dollar may go into overdrive, and head downhill into the ditch. Filled with pitch. And derivatives. And government debt.

And so was it revealed that the Idols of the Fed were hiding feet of clay beneath their wingtips.

Thusfar the Fed's announcement about interest rates today. Clearly the dollar had been edging up on airy expectations that the Council of the Fed in the firmament assembled would begin to raise interest rates, or at least bluster as if they were. Sorry, the economy's pump is sucking far too much wind for those brave spirits to risk any such move. If the dollar breaks 79.60, twill hit 78 or 78.50 quickly. That would make room for a pleasant little gold rally. $ index now stands beneath its 20 DMA. Yet what's an Angel to do? Protect the dollar & gut the economy? Not by the hair on Ben Breanne's chinny chin chin.

The Dow Industrials and the S&P500 and every other index including the South Jersey and Delaware Hosiery Manufacturers Stock Index rose today. The Dow added 43.83 to 10,685.98 and the S&P500 climbed 8.95 to 1,159.46. Clearly the Fates have cut the string for stocks, and they must make their dooméd climb to the last high at 10,730 before the earthquake arrives. Keep thyself clear, dear Reader.

Yet a little proof for the above is found in the Dow In Gold Dollars (DiG$). It had flirted with G$200 (9.675 oz), but has traded out onto a shelf hanging over an abyss, never a propitious formation on a chart. Fell today for the third day to G$196.00 (9.482 oz). Thus whispereth the DiG$ in our ears that stocks are fixing to tumble and gold to rise.

While the gold price shot up the SILVER PRICE lagged not far behind, throwing its shoulder at that same $17.50 door that stopped it last time. Silver rose 36.7c to $17.45 today. As with gold, so with silver: tomorrow it must make good her gains and rise more, battering through that last high at $17.64.

I believe we have a breakout in metals, but confirmation is needed. There'll be some excitement here the next few days.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, March 15, 2010

If it Were Moving Lower, the Gold Price Would Have Broken Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1105.20
Change: 3.70 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.040
Change 1.6 cents or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1613.90
Change: 7.40 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 459.65
Change: -2.60 or -0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.86
Change: 0.156 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,642.15
Change: 17.46 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.23
Change: 0.40 or 0.5%

Well, I've been thinking about this silver and gold business, and my opinion is rolling over. Thursday and Friday gold took a whipping, but it didn't break. Oh, the sellers backed gold all the way to $1,100 and a hair beyond, but it never closed down there. If it were moving lower, the gold price would have broken today. Yet hark! It hath not broken, neither hath it budged, but rather hath it risen. At Comex the gold price today rose $3.70 to $1,105.20. In the aftermarket the gold price is trading around $1,108.

Now what have we on gold's chart? A series of higher, i.e., rising, lows ($1,044.80, $1,085, $1,098.80) and higher highs -- the definition of an uptrend.

The dollar has also nearly completed an upside-down head and shoulders formation that generally pours a foundation for a rally. Only a close below $1,100 could contradict that. If the gold price clears that neckline at $1,140 it will run like a scalded dog.

The silver price snoozed most of the day, with a range from 17.14 to 16.94, and a Comex close at 17.04 (up 1.6c). Silver is not rising fast, but has continued to crawl up off Thursday's 16.80 low. Mark that silver has kept in step with gold, as the gold/silver ratio shows. Silver will move up with gold, but as with gold it must not fall back below this 17.00 area.

I am watching our cagiest customers coming in to buy. What does that say to y'all? Res ipsa loquitur.

US Dollar index made a temporary bottom on Friday, and is correcting against the down trend that has been ruling the past two weeks. Today 80.40 contained it, and it is trading now at 80.227, up 40 basis points. No wonder, considering how much trouble all the other scrofulous fiat currencies are wallowing in, but that doesn't make the dollar sound, it just makes it the least scrofulous in a crowd of scabby currencies. Some distinction. The dollar has rolled over into at least an interim correction, if not steered its trend down. A break below 78.50 would confirm a trend change, a close above 81.50 would shift gears the other direction.

While the Dow Industrials rose 17.46 today to close 10,642.15 and the S&P500 rose an infinitesimal 0.52 to $1,150.51, all the other stock indices dropped today. Nawww, that's not really good news for Wall Street and the Brothels of Brokerage. Confusion and bewilderment too often prove to be a plunge in the making. Keep on staying out of stocks.

Yes, yes, it is the Ides of March, upon which in 44 BC the Roman general and would be tyrant Julius Caesar died at the hands of a group of conspirators who thought a chance remained to save the Roman republic. Rather, they hastened its demise and their own. They simply struck too late. Dead republics cannot be successfully resuscitated.

On this date in 1820 Maine became the 23rd state, having seceded from Massachusetts. Whoa! Wait. I used the S-word. Whoa, y'all keep my secret and don't breathe the S-word to our imperial masters on the Potomac. They might draw the wrong conclusion and start thinking my name is Brutus.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, March 12, 2010

Next Week Gold and Silver Prices May Drop Slightly

Gold Price Close Today : 1,101.70
Gold Price Close 5th March : 1,134.80
Change: -33.10 or -2.9%%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.024
Silver Price Close 5th March : 17.362
Change -33.80 cents or -1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,608.40
Platinum Price Close 5th March: 1,578.00
Change: 30.40 or 1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 462.10
Palladium Price Close 5th March: 479.15
Change: -17.05 or -3.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.71
Gold Silver Ratio 5th March: 65.36
Change: -0.65 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,624.69
Dow Industrial 5th March: 10,566.20
Change: 58.49 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 79.802
US Dollar Index 5th March: 80.430
Change: -0.63 or -0.8%

The GOLD PRICE failed its challenge from last week, unable to break through $1,150, so it fell back, in spite of a lower dollar. Stocks keep on inching forward.

The gold price barely edged to a new low for the move today at $1,098.64, but closed at $1,101.70, down $6.50. Gold has established a down trend. I'm not sure whether the 5 day chart (See "XAUUSDO" on ino.com) shows a triple or double bottom. Triple bottoms fall through, double bottoms reverse trend. Either way $1,100 is strong support.

But the gold price has crossed below its 20 day moving average, first hint of a down move. This might be the right shoulder of an upside down head & shoulders forming, with a drop to $1,080 possible. If so would complete the right shoulder and offer a strategic buying opportunity.

Silver's low today at $16.9415 came 11c higher than yesterday's but the SILVER PRICE fell 11.2c to close on Comex at $17.023. What can I say when the facts practice their extortion on me? The silver price began an uptrend off Wednesday's $16.80 low, but 'tis so far lazy and must best that last high at $17.64 from Wednesday. The silver price could drop as low as $16.60 without breaking the uptrend line anchored on Feb. 4.

All other indicators favour higher prices the silver price stands favourably against its moving averages. Yet, yet, yet, a close over $18.00 is needed to attract those fickle Funds and other buyers. Be patient. Silver and gold prices have disjointed a bit here.

Next week both metals may drop slightly. Meanwhile we tread the weary circle of Sampson, grinding out the grain of correction hour by drear hour until our day arrives.

Like yesterday, stocks traded on a see-saw today, winding over and under unchanged and weakening throughout the day. What meaneth this sign, that the Dow rises 12.85 while the S&P500 drops 0.25? Confusion. Bewilderment. Indecision. Coasting to a stop. Dow closed 10,624.69 & S&P500 at 1,149.99. Next week Dow will likely hit the last high at 10,730, then fade.

As yesterday hinted, the Dollar Index tumbled today, down 52.3 basis points to 79.80. Support awaiteth at 79.50, but if/when that fails, then 78.50 will be the next stop. Coming soon! More downside.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Reasons Behind the Wild Roller Coaster Ride for the Gold Price in the Last Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1108.00
Change: 0.20 or 0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.136
Change 14.2 cents or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1610.80
Change: 22.50 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 460.15
Change: -3.60 or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.66
Change: -0.529 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial: 10,611.84
Change: 44.10 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index: 80.27
Change: -0.17 or -0.2%

A reader asked me to give the reasons behind the wild roller coaster ride for the GOLD PRICE in the last week. Well, a range from $1,100 to $1,142.70 is only 3.8%, not so terribly wide. Simplest explanation is that gold mounted a massive rise from $681 in November 2008 to $1,226.40 in December 2009, so a correction was bound to follow, frustrating, slow, rangey.

Yet now my friend Bob the Technical Genius points out that an upside down head and shoulders may be forming in gold, a base for the next rally. May be forming.

The simple answer says it just takes time for a market's pendulum to swing from one side to another. If you don't like to sweat, stay off the field.

The GOLD PRICE today fought off an attack that backed it down to $1,100.50, but closed up 20c on the day at $1,108. Splendid, but still range-bound.

The SILVER PRICE remains in an uptrend and keeps gaining on gold. That declining gold/silver ratio says something good is coming for both metals, but what exactly? Silver has also formed a rising wedge since February -- bad juju -- and must close above $18.00 to negate the negatives of that.

Today's $16.832 silver price low was a little higher than yesterday's, and silver gained 14.2c to close on Comex at $17.136. Tomorrow the silver price should go higher but keep in mind that menacing rising wedge and silver's need to conquer $18.00.

Tomorrow promises to be a dark day for the US Dollar Index. Once it falls through the trap door at 80.1, it won't stop till it hits the floor at 79.50. If that floor gives way, then next story is at 78.50. We'll know this my opinion is hogwash if the dollar closes above 81.50, otherwise the dollar will drop a while. Dollar index today fell 17.1 basis points to 80.274.

Stocks rose today 44.1 points to close at 10,611.84 for the Dow and up 4.63 at 1,150.24 for the S&P500. Yes, I have been fighting stocks all the way up and for a reason: the rally is a trap. It may reach the last high at 10,700 or even in a fit climb above 11,000, but the sand is running out of the hourglass. What you are witnessing does not by any means qualify as a new bull market. P/E, yields, time elapsed in this bear market, all argue fatally against a new bull market. No, this is a rally in a bear market, and after the bear has lured the most victims possible into his cave, then he will strike and devour them. Y'all stay out of that bear's cave. Stocks have formed a lethal rising wedge, which usually resolves by crashing.

Many thanks for your expressions of care for Susan and your many suggestions. We consider each of them carefully, and deeply appreciate your prayers.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Gold Price is Near the Bottom of the Range

Gold Price Close Today : 1107.80
Change: -14.20 or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.994
Change -32.4 cents or -1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1588.30
Change: -8.70 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 463.75
Change: -6.25 or -1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.19
Change: 0.400 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,567.33
Change: 2.95 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.46
Change: -0.13 or -0.2%

Gold's spike downward yesterday was a false signal since it climbed for half the day today, then deflated like a balloon from $1,125 to $1,105 and lay there flat. Friend of mine on the floor of the Chicago commodity exchange said that the big funds suddenly sold in large numbers, pushing down the market. Could be.

Just like y'all, I'm watching to see whether the GOLD PRICE will hold $1,100 support. If not, gold re-visits $1,090. Yet forget ye not gold must climb over $1,125 to turn up again, that is, to change the trend from down to up. I reckon gold is paying this week for its party last week. 'Tis near the bottom of the range, you have to close your eyes, suck in your gut, and buy some.

Today the SILVER PRICE behaved much like gold, only more so: it V-bopttomed yesterday, climbed till noon all the way to $17.64, then simply plunged straight down to $16.95.
Comex close at $16.994 was cosmetic since it is trading at $17.04 in the aftermarket. ("Cosmetic" means somebody was putting make-up on the close, 6/10c to make it look worse, or maybe I've been studying the yankee government so long that I've become paranoid.)

So now we have this double bottom at $16.90. Will it hold? The market will make that plain on the morrow. If silver stays above $17.00, I would buy some. It could still drop all the way to $16.40 without breaking the uptrend line demarcated since early February.

I re-iterate that I believe we have already seen the after-December lows.

The scabrous US DOLLAR index (I am working hard on a synonym for "scrofulous") double topped yesterday and today at 80.80, then, having lost its wind altogether, collapsed to a low of 80.313. By now it has only slightly recovered to 80l.459, down only 13.3 basis points. That little change doesn't really tell the same tale as the five day chart.

For the nonce 80.10 offers support, and yet stubborner support awaits at 79.60, which will likely see soon since the $ has established a short term downtrend. I have not a clue what hit the dollar today, but it didn't help anything else much, either.

Although the Dow today rose a magnificent 2.95 points to close at 10,567.33 and the S&P 500 rose 5.16 to 1,145.61, look at the chart. You will discover there only indecision and tentativeness.

Monday I stood by while Susan had an echo-cardiogram, an ultrasound for the heart. Susan says her heart valves are "clapping hands" because that's what they look like. Whoa! Then you stagger and reel back recognizing that in your own chest every day of your life your own heart sings without ceasing a song of praise to God, and every man's chest rings with the same unbroken psalm, will-he, nill-he. God runs the whole universe like that, with crazy, reckless generosity, upholding all things by the word of his power and throwing out miracles and blessing with both hands, while we are so used to it all that we no longer know to call it a miracle.

At least Susan's heart valve repaired back in August 2008 is still clapping its hands, but her heart has a "junctional" rhythm. Her cardiologist wants to put in a pacemaker but brave, stubborn Susan, a very sparing consumer of medical and pharmaceutical products, begged off 90 days to try to straighten her heart rhythm out with supplements.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, March 09, 2010

The Gold Price Might Have Drawn a Spike Bottom Low Today at $1,108.60

Gold Price Close Today : $1122.00
Change: -1.60 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.318
Change 6.6 cents or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1588.60
Change: -8.40 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 466.15
Change: -3.85 or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.79
Change: -0.341 or -0.5%

Dow Industrial: 10,568.39
Change: 15.87 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.57
Change: 0.14 or 0.2%

This frustrating up and down, deceiving at every turn, threatening to shoot but never quite dropping the hammer: this is what everyone loves about markets in a trading range. They break out, they break down, they break up, but then never follow through.

The GOLD PRICE might have drawn a spike bottom low today at $1,108.60. It closed at $1,122 on Comex, down $1.60, but now is trading at $1,121.25. Clear resistance shows at $1,125, support at $1,108 and $1,100. Gold's 20 day moving average today reads $1,111.80, so gold must stay above that level to fight a breakdown.

It's a trading range market. Buy near the bottom of the range on declines.

SILVER hath shown itself stronger than gold lately, as seen in the Gold/Silver Ratio dropping today to 64.79. Comex closed silver today higher by 6.6c at 17.318, while gold declined $1.60. That mirrors the confusion and indecision in the market. Look at a six month chart. Silver turned up after trading on 4 February at an intraday low of 14.68, and it is trading over its 200, 20, and 50 DMA.

All of that is contained within a wider trading range bound by 14.50 and 19.50. Trading in that range is all noise until silver closes above 19.50. Yet we can make the most out of an irritating situation by accumulating silver toward the low side of that range. Silver is still trending up.

My opinion remains that we have already seen the lows in both gold and silver. The US DOLLAR INDEX has rolled over on its back, & like the fish that does the same, will sink. As long as it holds over 78 it will remain in an uptrend. Any close above 81.30 brings higher prices, below 79.60 lower. Till then, all the up and down is merely noise.

STOCKS today nosed above Dow 10,600 to 10,612, but couldn't make good the gain. By day's end stocks had surrendered most of their gains. Dow stopped at 10,568.39, adding a grandiloquent 15.87. S&P 500 ended at 1,140.28, up a loud 1.78. A turning point is due this month or next. Those who buy stocks will be as disappointed as those who trusted Bernie Madoff or Charles Ponzi.

Sorry I missed sending y'all a commentary
yesterday, but I had to take Susan to her appointment with her cardiologist, and we arrived home too late. She had an echocardiogram but we haven't talked to the doctor about the results yet. She may need a pacemaker, which she desires as a Jersey cow longs for big screen TV. Thank you for your prayers, and please don't stop.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, March 05, 2010

Assuming that Silver and Gold Prices Are About to Extend Their Rally, This Late-Stage Leg Up Will See Silver Sharply Outperform Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 1,134.80
Gold Price Close 26-Feb : 1,118.30
Change: 16.50 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.362
Silver Price Close 26-Feb : 16.499
Change 86.30 cents or 5.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,578.00
Platinum Price Close 26-Feb: 1,543.50
Change: 34.50 or 2.2%

Palladium Price Close Today: 479.15
Palladium Price Close 26-Feb: 431.75
Change: 47.40 or 11.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 65.36
Gold Silver Ratio 26-Feb: 67.78
Change: -2.42 or -3.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,566.20
Dow Industrial 26-Feb: 10,325.26
Change: 240.94 or 2.3%

US Dollar Index: 80.430
US Dollar Index 26-Feb: 80.352
Change: 0.08 or 0.1%

Res ipsa loquitur. The thing speaks for itself. This week's big winner was Palladium the Obscure, up 11%, on strength of a J.P. Morgan report that the PALLADIUM PRICE would b'ime/by touch $700/oz, stampeding the sheep into palladium. Moving right along, the SILVER PRICE won the next prize with a 5.2% gain, 3.5 times gold's gain, so the Gold/Silver Ratio dropped 3.7%. Dow rose 2.3%, S&P500 3%, and dollar index flatlined.

'Twas a strong week for the GOLD PRICE, stronger than the mere numbers (up 1.5%) intimate. No, that's not blather. Gold successfully tested $1,090 support last week and battered its way through resistance at $1,100, $1,118, $1,125, and $1,132, not to mention that in February $1,120 had turned gold back. Yesterday gold discretely corrected, bounced off $1,125 and today closed over $1,132 at $1,134.80 ($2.20 higher).

All these things set the gold price up to challenge the January high at $1,161.80 intraday ($1,150 closing). That will be the final witness that gold has entered a new rally, ready to test its mettle once more against the $1,226.40 all time intraday high. Technically from Dec. 3 to end-February gold formed a falling wedge, which (as they usually do) has broken out upside. Another harbinger of higher prices.

The silver price hath the bit between its teeth and runneth. It now stands above its 20 day moving average and its 50 DMA and the 20 is about to cross above the 200. All hopeful pointers. There is little resistance between here and the last intraday peak at $19.45, chiefly $17.75 and $18.80. Forget ye not that the silver price failed to make a new all-time high in December to match gold's, which shame silver has yet to wipe clean. Assuming that my earlier interpretation was correct and that silver and gold prices are about to extend their rally, this late-stage leg up will see silver sharply outperform gold. Too early to tell if that's true because the gold price must push through $1,226 to confirm. Otherwise we are condemned to five more months of up and down trading in a range.

Silver today gained 20.6c to close on Comex at $17.362. Look what the gold/silver ratio has done, falling to 65.36 from above 70 not long ago. Next stop resistance at 60:1

Longer term, all these messengers bring good news for SILVER and GOLD PRICES, just a leetle uncertainty about the near future.

'Pears to me the US DOLLAR INDEX has rolled over and left its rally behind. It double topped at 81.20+ this week. To resume its uptrend the $ Index would have to climb over 81.30. Fall will accelerate once it pierces 79.80, then question will become, Can it hold above 78.50? Still dangerous as a rattlesnake in a liverish mood, because dollar could bend, correct, and shoot to 89. I don't think that's going to happen, nor do I think that Michael Anthony will drop by my house tonight with a million dollar check from John Beresford Tipton, but I recognize the possibility. Dollar Index fell 13.1 basis points to 80.43 in late trading.

STOCKS managed to rise today and clear the 10,400 hurdle. And? So what? This move may reach the last high around 10,700, but that will only emphasize with a double top the single material fact: stocks will fall much, much further, even further than the last 6450 low for the Dow. Today' scorecard? Dow + 122.06 at 10,566.20 & S&P500 at 1,137.78, up 14.81.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, March 04, 2010

The Correction that Began After Yesterday's High Appears to Have Run Its Course Today With a Low at $1,125 for the Gold Price

Gold Price Close Today : 1132.60
Change: -10.10 or -0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.156
Change -15.3 cents or -0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1580.00
Change: 7.50 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 458.55
Change: 18.50 or 4.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.02
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,444.14
Change: 47.38 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index: 80.54
Change: 0.56 or 0.7%

As yesterday hinted to us, 5-7 days charging up a hill leave SILVER and GOLD PRICE tired and vulnerable. The correction that began after yesterday's high appears to have run its course today with a low at $1,125 for gold. If I have misapprehended that, the GOLD PRICE could reach down to $1,118, but I doubt it will. If it does, buy there. Mercy, buy here, too. Today on Comex gold closed at that $1,132.60 support, down $10.10 after a $1,125.60 low.

The SILVER PRICE stepped back, too, losing 15.3c to close at $17.156. Most likely backstop for this move is $17.00. Today's low was struck at $17.03. Not clear to me whether silver will drop a bit more or not, but if I have correctly sized up the situation, silver should not see but one more down day. Break below $16.50 takes silver down, but a close above $17.75 sets it running loose upside.

Yesterday the US DOLLAR INDEX lost 51.6 basis points. Today it gained 56.2. What saith one about such silliness? One standeth back and looketh on the 30-day chart, where plainly emergeth from the fog a downtrend, replete with double top about 81.30. The scabby dollar (I'm looking for a synonym for "scrofulous") is dancing around its 20 DMA, above & below. If it can't pull away from that 20 DMA soon, it will pull it on down. Next big move for the dollar is not up. Sorry, Ben and your Nice Government Men, I just had to say it.

STOCKS rose a little, but remain stuck around 10,400. Dow today rose 47.38 to close at 10,444.14. S&P500 made a similar move, up 4.18 to 1,122.97. Stocks remain in a primary down trend (bear market) that will last another 5-10 years. Stay away from stocks, stop your ears no matter how sweetly and seductively those Wall Street Sirens call to you. Lash yourself to the mast, ignore their song, and sail on past, for it lures you to your doom.

In the past y'all have been kind enough to pray for us, and I have another request. My wife, Susan, had heart surgery in August 2008 to repair a flapping-in-the-breeze mitral valve. Lately she has been experiencing fatigue and shortness of breath, and has an appointment with her cardiologist on Monday. If you like, pray with me Psalm 103, especially vv. 3, 4, & 11 for Susan.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, March 03, 2010

The Gold Price May Take a Break Here Since It Has Risen 5 Days Running

Gold Price Close Today : 1142.70
Change: 5.80 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.309
Change 26.5 cents or 3.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1578.00
Change: 5.50 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 448.10
Change: 8.05 or 1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.02
Change: -0.686 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,396.76
Change: -9.22 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index: 80.01
Change: -0.52 or -0.6%

Yesterday the GOLD PRICE made a new all-time, since-the-creation-of-the-world high against the Euro, which appeareth to be an upside breakout from E830 with a E879.50 target.

Against the dollar today the gold price added $5.80 (after adding $19.60 yesterday). Comex closed at $1,142.70. Gold now stands at the gate of escape. Last intraday high was $1,161.80, last high close was $1,150.70, so through those portals gold must pass. May take a break here since it has risen 5 days running. To all the waiters and watchers roosting in the trees, gold sprinting past these gates will signal to follow along. Will gold pass the challenge? This week will tell us, and a fractured dollar saith we most likely will.

The SILVER PRICE gained another 26.5c today to end on Comex at $17.309. After 6 straight days ascending, silver may now rest a bit. However, now that silver has o'erleapt $16.80 resistance, the next barrier lies at $17.75. (Yes, those are big gaps between resistance levels.) The gold/silver ratio is dropping very rapidly, a loud hint silver is hitching up its breeches for a dash.

Gazing upon various silver price indicators yesterday left me split-minded. Longer term indicators imply silver must do more penance. Short term indicators say silver stands ready either to fall sharply or scramble much higher fast. Recall that the burden of proof has been resting on silver's shoulders since last fall it stopped short of a new high when gold made one. Silver's goals from here are $17.75, $18.75, and the last great high at $19.50. And silver had better make it pretty quick-smart, too.

The Dollar Index sank all day. Piercing 80.20, it plunged to 79.80, & now is trading down 51.6 basis points at 80.005. Little technical genius is needed to raise suspicion that breaking 80 will break morale, too, and chase the dollar lower. Looks more and more every day as if the $USD topped about 80.30 -- once 19 February and once 1 March. Now the dollar must close above 81.50 to gainsay that conclusion.

Bear in mind that my target for this dollar rally was 81.50, but I'll settle for the high we've already witnessed. Today the $ index punctured its 20 day moving average, first warning of trouble ahead.

Stock indices sang out of harmony today, some flat, some sharp. Dow stumbled at 10,400 and fell, but clings still to its uptrend and stands higher than its 20 DMA (10,240). Low today fell dead on the 50DMA at 10,370. Doubtful. Or, as my grandmother used to say, "Juberous." Right, I didn't understand, either, until I finally figured out she meant "dubious." She spoke a very pure dialect, uniimpaired by radio, TV, or public education.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, March 02, 2010

The Gold Price Jumped Through $1120, the Last High and Looks Very Promising

Gold Price Close Today : 1136.90
Change: 19.10 or 1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.044
Change 59.5 cents or 3.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1572.50
Change: 11.00 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today: 440.05
Change: 4.50 or 1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 66.70
Change: 1.098 or 1.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,405.00
Change: 1.21 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 80.51
Change: -0.15 or -0.2%

The Moneychanger is enjoying his day off today but called in this brief commentary. As expected, the GOLD PRICE smashed through $1120 today and jumped $1132 resistance.

On Comex gold closed at $1136.9, up $19.10. Next barrier is $1140, then the big hurdle of $1150. Steam is up so gold will challenge that old high this week. Interesting that early in the day the gold price rose in the teeth of a higher dollar.

However, the DOLLAR couldn't last and now is trading at 80.507, down 15.8 basis points. Today is another witness that the dollar is rolling over.

Oh yes, the SILVER PRICE did jump over $15.50 AND $16.80! Comex closed at $17.044, up 59.5c. That's a very strong close having crawled above $17.00, but in the aftermarket it's trading about $16.93. An advance like today's must be followed up by further gain.

The GOLD PRICE jumped through $1120, the last high, without bogging down and looks very promising. Buy the breakout.

DOW Jones added a whopping two points today, not the type of thing that inspires confidence. Stay out of stocks, bad juju.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, March 01, 2010

GOLD PRICE Backed Off 50 Cents Today - Effectively That's a Double Close, and Double Closes Often, but not Always, Mark a Turnaround

Gold Price Close Today : 1,117.80
Gold Price Close 22nd Feb : 1,112.60
Change: 5.20 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.449
Silver Price Close 22nd Feb : 16.222
Change 22.70 cents or 1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,545.00
Platinum Price Close 22nd Feb: 1,525.50
Change: 19.50 or 1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 432.85
Palladium Price Close 22nd Feb: 440.50
Change: -7.65 or -4.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 67.96
Gold Silver Ratio 22nd Feb: 68.59
Change: -0.63 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial: 10,403.79
Dow Industrial 22nd Feb: 10,383.31
Change: 20.48 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.752
US Dollar Index 22nd Feb: 80.752
Change: 0.22 or 0.3%

Weird goings-on in the federal government debt market, very weird. "Phantom" buyers are taking off large chucks of the debt auctions. Would that be Nice Mr. Bernanke taking up the slack by buying debt nobody else wants? And it also appears that Treasury & the Fed have figured out a back door means of shucking all those rotten Mortgage Backed Securities off on the taxpayers through Fannie & Freddie.

My, my, your servants in government never doze, do they?

US DOLLAR INDEX declined Thursday and Friday but found feet Friday at 80.20. Today it appears to have made a higher high than Thursday (81.256 today), then it fell off sharply. It has gotten awfully close to my 81.50 target. Was today a double top? Maybe, maybe. A close above 81.20 contradicts that, and it appears to be rolling over downward. However, the uptrend remains in force till the dollar breaks it by closing below 78.50. $ Index is wrestling with its 20 day moving average (DMA) at 80.18. First step to a fall would be a close below that 20 DMA.

The GOLD PRICE backed off 50 cents today. Effectively that's a double close, and double closes often, but not always, mark a turnaround. The gold price tussled with $1,120 all day, reached as high at $1,123.34, but couldn't hang on there. Traded in a tight range today, leaving too much tension behind. Tomorrow will either all back to gather steam for another try at $1,120, or smash through $1,120 and jump to $1,132, even $1,140. At the Comex close the gold price stood at $1,117.80.

Last week on Wednesday and Thursday the SILVER PRICE double bottomed for a base at 15.60, then advance to 16.75 today, but finished the Comex-day down 5.1c at 16.449. The silver price is still stymied by 16.50 - 16.75 resistance, but solid as a rock at 16.40 support. Since February 5th the silver price has remained in an uptrend so should keep on rising. It is now above its 20 DMA (1591) & 200 DMA (1604c), but the 50 DMA stands above at 16.87. Complicated, but not bad.

Today's trading in stocks brought the Dow up 78.52 to 10,403.79, but that's not quite up to the February intraday high. It's a chancey deal here for stocks -- they must advance higher or be seen to post a double top which will attract sellers and send the Dow dropping like an anvil pitched out of a 747 Jumbo Jet. Remember that since early January the Dow has established a down trend for the year.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.