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Friday, April 30, 2010

The Gold Price Has Broken Out Into a New Rally

Gold Price Close Today :1,180.10
Gold Price Close 22nd April: 1,142.30
Change: 37.80 or 3.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.611
Silver Price Close 22nd of April: 18.006
Change 60.50 cents or 3.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,739.40
Platinum Price Close 22nd of April: 1,743.00
Change: 52.70 or 3.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 551.55
Palladium Price Close 22nd of April: 565.50
Change: -13.95 or -2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.41
Gold Silver Ratio 22nd of April: 63.44
Change: -0.03 or -0.0%

Dow Industrial: 11,008.61
Dow Industrial 22nd of April: 11,134.29
Change: -125.68 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index: 81.896
US Dollar Index 22nd of April: 81.573
Change: 0.32 or 0.4%

Let's look at the week: who gained, who lost? The US dollar index probably peaked for a while this week, but showed a 32 basis point gain in spite of its weakness late in the week. Stocks fell significantly, turned back by unconquerable resistance and their own improbability. Platinum and palladium had their sails lightly trimmed, while SILVER and GOLD PRICES leapt more than 3%, proving they have begun a new rally.

Yesterday I wrote, "What would comfort my wearied apprehension? The GOLD PRICE smashing definitively through $1,170, silver topping $18.80, and the Gold/Silver ratio dropping through 62:1. That would erase all the ambiguity."

Today silver and gold met most of my requirements. The gold price rose $11.70 to close on Comex at $1,180.10. The SILVER PRICE rose 6.2c to close at $18.611, besting the last big high, although not $18.80. That will come Monday. Finally, the gold/silver ratio edged closer to 62:1, but remains 1.4 points above. Not everything, but a lot.

The gold price has broken out into a new rally. Clearly it is meeting lots of disbelieving sellers as it rises. Don't join them, because the gold price is headed much higher in May: much higher. Beneath them, the gold price must hold $1,160 and the silver price $18.50. As long as they hang on there, they're all right. This rally should raise the gold price to $1,300 or higher and the silver price to a new high above $20.68.

Buy the breakouts. Of course, you don't have to. You can wait to buy until the gold price reaches $1,300 and the silver price reaches $25.00.

The US dollar index made a higher high this week, but last three days has been struggling to remain afloat, and today sank beneath the waves at 82. Right now it's trading down 10.7 bps at 81.896. "Below 82" breaks the magic, and the morale. This week the dollar tried to break through 82 and even reached 82.71 intraday, then failed shamefully. Now it's only 65 bps above its 20 day moving average, but also remains above its 200 week moving average. Next week looks tough for the dollar and it may visit 78 before it visits 88.

This week the Dow on Monday made a new high close for the move at 11,205.03. Sounds great, huh? But . . . Next day it sank 213 points, rose 53 on Wednesday, rose another 122 yesterday, then vomited up nearly all that gain today with a 158.71 point fall to 11,008.61. S&P fared worse, losing 20.09 to close at 1,186.69.

Sorry, I must say it: Dow's five day chart looks most emphatically double-toppy. The Bridge over the River Plunge now stands at 11,000, and once the Dow breaks that the rats will begin running for the jungle. I believe y'all have seen the top in stocks for the rally that began in March 2009. As I have begged you all before I now beg again, for your own sakes, for your families' sakes, get out of stocks.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, April 29, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices Non Confirmation

Gold Price Close Today : 1168.40
Change: -2.90 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.549
Change 44.2 cents or 2.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1729.60
Change: 22.70 or 1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 550.95
Change: 11.35 or 2.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.99
Change: -1.698 or -2.6%

Dow Industrial: 11,167.32
Change: 122.05 or 1.1%

US Dollar Index: 82.07
Change: -0.31 or -0.4%


Here I am skidding and slinging my car around in mid-road, but that Dollar Index looks like it topped yesterday. Even if it didn't what sort of strength does it show to break out (albeit slightly) to a new high for the move, a high above the last two highs, and then fall? No strength at all. Dollar index today had 30.8 basis points ripped off its back and is trading now at 82.073. Should it break that 82 fence tomorrow, it will fall at least 40 bps, maybe further.

Now y'all all think I am red-faced and tongue-tied because the Dow rose today to 11,167.32 (up 122.05). I'm not, no more than I am embarrassed by the S&P500 rising 15.42 to 1,206.78. Folks, you are watching a top in progress, and big markets turn slowly. Especially big markets that have big friends in government desperate to keep them up by any means possible. Stay out, stay away, stay calm. The weeping, whining, and whimpering will begin shortly.

In this day's trading silver and gold prices reversed their stances from yesterday. Today silver closed up strongly, 44.2c to 18.549 on Comex while gold dropped slightly, $2.90 $1,168.40. Let me clarify why this bothers me.

It's a "non-confirmation." For instance, if the Dow Jones Industrial Average rises to a new high but the Dow Transportation Average refuses to rise to a new high, that's a "non-confirmation." If the future really holds greater profitability for stocks, then those two ought to agree with each other. If they don't agree, the market is telling you, "There's a hold-up, a roadblock here, a fishhook! Look out, warning light!" On the other hand, when markets that ought to agree in fact confirm each other, that's a green light.

Silver and gold prices move together in bull markets. While they won't confirm each other every single day, in general and at turning points they must. That's why silver's failure to make a new high when gold made one in December was a massive, flashing yellow light. And look what happened.

Now from day to day sometimes silver and gold might disagree naturally, and, as I have hinted with all the subtlety of garlic breath, the NGM like to intervene in silver to drag gold down. So one day or another doesn't necessarily constitute a non-confirmation. Today's action seemed to me to gainsay yesterday's non-confirmation. Silver bounced up to its last high and made up for lost time yesterday. Gold stuttered and stumbled because it is right on the verge of a big jump. It's to be expected that a breakout like that would attract a lot of short sellers who think that this time gold will fail again.

What would comfort my wearied apprehension? Gold smashing definitively through $1,170, silver topping 18.80, and the Gold/Silver ratio dropping through 62:1. That would erase all the ambiguity.

Now I've talked so much back and forth y'all have probably lost my point: gold and silver looked strong today and are slogging through a break-out that will carry gold to $1,300 and silver to a new high above 2068c, unless some terrible crisis lurketh all unforeseen and unsuspected. Buy gold and silver.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, April 28, 2010

The Gold Price has Broken Through $1160

Gold Price Close Today : 1171.30
Change: 9.60 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.107
Change -1.2 cents or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1706.90
Change: -10.70 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 539.60
Change: -11.40 or -2.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.69
Change: 0.573 or 0.9%

Dow Industrial: 11,045.27
Change: -213.04 or -1.9%

US Dollar Index: 82.33
Change: 0.18 or 0.2%

One reader asked me to comment on the congressional Goldman-Sachs hearings. Okay, here's my comment: theater, pure theater. Standard cover-up procedure. A bunch of senators who know nothing about a very complicated business appear to ask piercing questions to arrogant Goldman Sachs traders and executives. Did you know the mortgage market would tank? Huh? Us? Why, why, we were just selling what people wanted. Meanwhile they have GS interoffice emails smirking about what doomed trash these CDOs were.

But watch the walnut with the pea under it! This is merely theater to build momentum to pass (what my friend Al Thomas calls) the Financial Deform bill, 1200 pages nobody will read. They will only discover later that it was loaded with treats and goodies that benefit whom? The Goldman Sachs of the world.

Get this straight, folks: the Wall Street establishment owns and runs the US government for its own benefit. Any idea that the US government answers to taxpayers and voters expired 150 years ago.

Oh, what a stinky day! Something just doesn't smell right here. I don't know if it's a financial catastrophe lurking around the corner or merely the Nice Government Men up to their usual tricks, but it all just doesn't quite meld.

Main chance says the US dollar index has broken out to the upside. Right now its trading at 82.327, up 18.1 basis points. However, this is one of those not-yet-clear situations, so dollar could be faking us all out preparatory to plummeting to the center of the earth. But the main chances says it will rise higher.

Dow Jones Industrial Average today rose 53.28 to 11,045.27 (wink! Wink!). S&P skittered up the ladder 7.65 points to 1,191.36. Nasdaq Comp & other indices were flat. While it's always possible stocks might raise their head one last time, it's doubtful. Down is the trajectory, down, down, down.

Heard something titillating from a wholesaler friend who does a lot of business in Europe. Seems that the Greek crisis, which I providentially misspelled as "Greed" yesterday, is driving European investors out of the Euro (rhymes with "burro") and into gold. Thus European wholesalers have no gold coins to send to the US. That hasn't yet raised premiums on gold coins, but if it keeps up it will.

This day's trading in gold leaves the mind in a quandary. It rose $9.60 to close on Comex at $1,171.30, but now in the aftermarket is trading $1,165.90. Chart has a sort of choppy corrective look the last two days. Still, gold has broken through $1,160 resistance and marched ahead, so it certainly ought to keep climbing. But why today's weakness? Natural, or induced by the NGM who don't want to see gold shooting out of sight in a brewing crisis? Who can tell any more? Might be the market's stomach churning over some crisis foreseen.

The SILVER PRICE performed poorly today, not counting its heroic defense of 17.80 again. Reminds me of somebody in a swimming pool trying to hold a basketball underwater. Wait! Don't say it, don't say it! No, can't help it: looks like some NGM might be selling off silver trying to scare people out of gold. (I hate it when my lips do that, just take off and speak without asking me.)

Staying above 18.00 after being driven to 17.80 on Friday and today in fact is strong, and probably completes the correction from Friday's high. Of course, if silver closed lower than 17.80, that would gainsay my interpretation, but as long as it stays above 18.00 'twill be all right. If gold takes off, silver will not lag far behind. What worries me most is that silver's high Friday was lower than the 18.60 high on 12 April, while gold's analogous high was higher. This needs to be cured quickly, or it will cause trouble.

On this day in 1881 escaped from the jail in Lincoln County, New Mexico Billy the Kid, killing two deputies on guard. On 14 July he was ambushed and killed by Sheriff Pat Garrett.

On this day in 1770 Captain James Cook in Endeavour landed at Botany Bay in Australia. His men celebrated by throwing another kangaroo on the barbie. Cook was the first European to reach Australia's eastern coast.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Today's Gold Price Move Qualifies as a "Break-Out"

Gold Price Close Today : 1161.70
Change: 8.20 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.119
Change -21.8 cents or -1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1717.60
Change: -28.50 or -1.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 551.00
Change: -16.25 or -2.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.12
Change: 1.209 or 1.9%

Dow Industrial: 10,991.99
Change: -213.04 or -1.9%

US Dollar Index: 82.06
Change: 0.58 or 0.7%

Behold! Let us muse upon the free-ness of markets, the honesties born of government regulation, and what a cesspool of corruption the reality is. I am thinking, of course, about Options Expiry. Lo, what a coincidence. Every time options expire, "Somebody" trashes the market so that the most heavily traded options expire worthless.

Ponder the SILVER PRICE: if most of the May options (which expired today) were written at $18.00, and another big clot of them at $18.25, then the options writers wouldn't want
silver futures to close at $18.30. If they can get together and sell enough futures contracts to drive the price down, not forever but just for a single day, then the options expire worthless and they pocket the premiums paid by the gullible public.

Sure enough, today right on cue they drove the silver price down to $1806, although it closed at $18.119. Now, that wasn't perfect from their viewpoint -- a $17.99 close would have been perfect, but every penny move in silver futures translates to $50 value for an in-the-money call option. Perform the mathematics, and you'll see that options writers have a powerful incentive to drive down prices, only temporarily, on Options Expiry day.

Therefore, we can explain the odd concatenation of events, where the GOLD PRICE rises $8.20 but silver falls 21.8c to close on Comex at $18.119 then in the aftermarket the silver price climbs to $18.22 (and gold to $1,170.)

Now, having coughed up that bone in my throat, let's look at today's trading. Although today was Options Expiry, the gold price climbed $8.20 to $1,161.70, perhaps as a result of Greek government debt being downgraded to "Junk" status. The press into gold was simply too mighty to stop.

US Dollar Index drew nigh to 81, then jumped 57.9 basis points to 82.06 right now. Yet again, the wooden stake was pounded into the heart of the myth that gold's price moves in lock-step opposite the dollar. Not when people are scared, it doesn't, because they are looking for some alternative to the dollar.

Today's rise to 82.06 (81.179 high) brings the US Dollar Index back to that 82+ resistance that has twice before stopped the dollar. Chances are it will punch through this time, and continue rising. If it does not, then the dollar will write "Cancelled" over any rally for a long while. The path will not remain a secret; tomorrow the market will shout an answer.

STOCKS today finally succumbed to gravity. Note that all the gurus, analysts, talking heads, TV opinionaters, and all the whole media chattering class will be pointing the finger at S&P's downgrading Greed debt as the "cause." Right -- the same way wet streets "cause" rain. True, the downgrade happened coincidentally to stocks' falling, but to assume that one caused the other is to fall prey to the post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy ("this happened after that therefore on account of that"). Rather, as I have been admonishing y'all for many days, stocks had already reached their extremely overbought top. They were a statue on a rotten pedestal, waiting for the first wind to topple. So a wind blew: the downgrade, but that didn't really cause stocks to fall. At most it only precipitated a fall that was ready to happen anyway.

So how bad was it? Dow fell 213.04 to 10,991.99. S&P500 was hit even harder, dropping 28.34 to 1,183.71, down 2.34% versus the Dow's 1.90% fall. For the Dow 11,000 was support, and now that has been ruptured. Next support materializes at 10,800. Dow today fell through its 20 day moving average (11031.90), first harbinger of a downturn. With markets you never know what will happen next -- especially with so many fingers manipulating markets today -- but today's break clearly fractures stocks' uptrend and turns them down.

What about silver and gold? Today's gold close was especially strong, considering the headwinds of Options Expiry and a strongly rising dollar. Today's move qualifies as a "break-out", so gold ought to gain tomorrow. Silver will tag right along, and lap gold.

If you've been waiting to buy, today you got your signal.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, April 26, 2010

The Gold Price is Far More Likely to Rise From Here

Gold Price Close Today : 1153.50
Change: 0.40 or 0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.337
Change 14.5 cents or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1746.10
Change: 8.10 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 567.25
Change: 5.75 or 1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.91
Change: -0.479 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial: 11,205.03
Change: 0.75 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index: 81.23
Change: 0.17 or 0.2%

The GOLD PRICE on Comex rose 40 cents to close at $1,153.50 and is trading now at $1,154.10. Friday's $10.80 jump lifted gold to $1,160 resistance again. 'Twas a strange chart, Friday's. The gold price broke $1,142.50 and levitated straight up like Captain Kirk heading for the Enterprise. Today's high was $1,158.80 but gold spent most of its day trading sideways. Must not break $1,140.

Sorry, I don't like double closes. Although in the past couple of months half of them have led to higher prices and half to lower, they still make me nervous. Nonetheless the gold price is far more likely to rise from here. That's almost a given. All indicators and moving averages support higher gold prices, but there's a certain want of enthusiasm that keeps buzzing at my attention like some annoying fat blue bottle fly. A close above $1,160 will cure my uneasiness.

Since February the SILVER PRICE has been climbing in regular stair steps -- bold, strong pattern. Today it rose 14.5c to close at $18.337 on Comex, and now is trading at $18.32, but the same discrepancy appears in silver that I alluded to above in gold.

Silver's big roadblock is $18.60, and above that the December high at $18.89. The silver price must stay above 18.10. Trend in force is up, so the silver price ought to keep climbing tomorrow.

What a photo op for stocks! Almost every other index closed down, but the Dow closes up . . . 0.75. No, that's not a typo. The Dow climbed as high as 11,258.01, but couldn't digest that extra 53 points.

Stocks are as overbought as California real estate, as overhyped as Gulf Coast condos. Stocks have risen the last eight weeks running, not to mention eight out of the last eleven weeks. The RSI looks like January 2000 and the MACD has frozen at permanently overbought. Have stocks repealed gravity, with the help of the NGM? Don't bet on it. Can't go on forever, just stay out and be patient. When the wailing and weeping begins, you will not be among the mourners.

Whoa. That US Dollar index rally not only failed to break out on Friday at 82, but also made the first half of a key reversal, namely, rising to a new high for the move only to close lower the same day. Today the Samolean painted the second half of that key reversal with a second day's lower close. Right now the dollar is trading at 81.23, down 17.3 basis points. Wait, wait, behold! the Dollar has also drawn a double top just above 82. Tomorrow the dollar should follow through by closing below its 20 day moving average (now 81.06). Once it opens that trap door at 81 it will slid to 80 fast as a roach skitters away when you flip on the kitchen light.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, April 22, 2010

Once the Gold Price Closes Through the Last High at $1,161, 'Twill Run Fast

Gold Price Close Today : 1,142.30
Gold Price Close 16th April: 1,136.30
Change: 6.00 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.006
Silver Price Close 16th of April: 17.664
Change 34.20 cents or 1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,743.00
Platinum Price Close 16th of April: 1,690.30
Change: 52.70 or 3.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 565.50
Palladium Price Close 16th of April: 1,690.30
Change: 52.70 or 3.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.44
Gold Silver Ratio 16th of April: 64.33
Change: -0.89 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial: 11,117.29
Dow Industrial 16th of April: 11,018.66
Change: 115.63 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index: 81.03
US Dollar Index 16th of April: 80.832
Change: 0.74 or 0.9%

The STOCK market today has to leave a wry smile on your face. Dow opened down and stayed there till noon when it began a slow climb to unchanged. Then at 3:30, with just 30 minutes left for the day, it climbed above unchanged to close up 9.37 at 11,134.29. S&P500 rose 2.73 to 1,208.67. Not up much, but up still for propaganda purposes.

Some readers have been nipping at my heels about the continuing gains in stocks. I don't mind, I've been nipped by champions before, but I believe that the longer your perspective, the better your view, so I want to bring y'all up on some facts so that y'all can understand why I view stocks with such a jaundiced eye.

In any market, the investor's goal is to gain value. However, when the currency unit (not to mention markets) is being manipulated and inflated, how can you value anything? It's like shooting skeet off the back of a bass boat in a storm. Therefore, we need a gauge for investment performance that gives a reliable measurement. That's why I measure the performance of stocks in silver, or in Gold Dollars (a gold dollar is 0.048375 troy ounce).

In August 1999 the Dow in Gold Dollars peaked at G$925.42 (44.767 ounces). Today, it stands at G$201.49 or 9.747 troy ounces, so stocks have lost 78.2% or about 4/5 of peak value against gold. They will continue to drop until one to two ounces buys the whole Dow, or, in other words, until stocks lose another 80% to 90% of present value. That's the long term perspective on stocks.

Shorter term, the DiG$ bottomed at G$145.37 (7.032 oz) on 6 March 2009. Since then it has risen to G$201.49 (9.747 oz). That's a rise of G$56.12 or 2.715 oz, a 38.6% gain. Correcting the fall from G$318.84 (15.424 oz) where it started 11 September 2008 to its end at G$145.37 (G$173.47 or 8.392 oz), that a rise of only 32.3%. Sounds strong?

Not so fast, friend. Whichever way you want to view this correction, it is normal and routine. Worse yet, it is bound to fail, taking stocks down again. So it's not a very sound idea to judge stocks' performance against gold, silver, or the paper dollar, by the last 12 months. And it's never a good idea to invest for the next 12 months expecting a repeat of the last.

I'm not clever enough to capture every zig & zag of any market, so I have to follow the first fundamental rule of investing: always invest with the primary trend. Not flashy, but over time, it works.

The US DOLLAR worked through 81.30 and jumped 41.2 basis points to 81.573. That closes it right on the short term downtrend line from March. The RSI & MACD are hinting higher prices, but the test comes tomorrow. Can the dollar punch through that trend line? A close tomorrow above 81.90 sends the dollar climbing again.

This morning at opening bell someone body-slammed gold with selling and quickly pushed it down to $1,131.55. After a couple of hours' consolidation it bounded above $1,140 and has traded sideways since. Thus "down $5.90 to close on Comex at $1,142.30" doesn't tell the whole tale. Gold is much stronger than that lower close appears.

The GOLD PRICE remains above its 20 day moving average, and the 20, 50, and 200 DMAs are all rising. Last week's shakeout actually helped strengthen gold for the next rise. As long as gold doesn't close below $1,130 it is still preparing itself for a rally. Should close the week higher tomorrow. Once the gold price closes through the last high at $1,161, 'twill run fast.

SILVER shared gold's fate today. Overnight it sank slowly to 17.90, then the US market opened and Some Big Seller appeared and knocked gold to 17.76. No matter, silver consolidated, then rose to close on Comex down only 6.7c to a photogenic 18.006. Silver has not violated the underlying uptrend, so it remains in that trend. However, 18.10 is blocking the path of silver's progress. Silver must not close below 17.60.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, April 20, 2010

The Gold Price Now Needs to Top $1,146

Gold Price Close Today : 1138.60
Change: 3.40 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.815
Change 9.0 cents or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1714.00
Change: 19.00 or 1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 551.90
Change: 17.20 or 3.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.91
Change: -0.133 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial: 11,117.29
Change: 25.24 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 81.03
Change: 0.09 or 0.1%

The SILVER PRICE advanced today 9c on Comex to close at $17.855. $18.00 stopped its advance, no surprise that. Tomorrow it needs to hold $17.80 and burst through $18.00, but that may take another day. A close below $17.50 turns the outlook down. The silver price remains within an uptrend.

Early in the day the GOLD PRICE tried to scale the parapet at $1,146 but bailed and fell back as low as $1,135.40. On Comex it closed $3.40 higher at $1,138.60 and now is trading at $1,140.90. If tomorrow the gold price holds $1,130, then today's slackness is only resting and part of the penance for that big collapse on Friday. For credibility, the gold price now needs to top $1,146, and one way or the other must keep working on that target.

But, as economists are fond of saying, on the other hand today and yesterday might have been mere dead cat bounces, although I doubt that. Tomorrow will make that plain.

Ogling the 5-day Dow chart I face a great movement -- in a circle. From Friday's 11,150 to Friday's 10,970 to skips to a double bottom at 10,980 on Monday, then yesterday and today floats once again to 11,140, closing today at 11,117.24, adding 25.24 (S&P500 augmented 9.66 to 1,207.18).

Now if you drove your big Mercedes round and round in great circles, what at last would happen? You would run out of gas. So, too, will stocks. No definitive sign of a top yet, but that it draweth night is obvious from this slowing and struggling.

Today climbed the US DOLLAR INDEX above 81, yea, even unto 81.28, but was not quite stout enough to clutch gains that large, so lapsed back to 81.033, higher by a mere 8.8 basis points. Today's high barely reached the downtrend line, yet curb thine arrogance! The Dollar might already three days ago have seen completion of its correction from 82.24, the March high. Thus the dollar stands wavering at a crossroad: will it now resume rallying, or will it turn down to enter an even longer correction or even a trend change in cooperation with gravity? Remember that last week the dollar fell outside and below its uptrend line ("violated" it) so now must clamber above 81.75 to sneak back into the window of that uptrend channel. Short term downtrend remains in force till that happens.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, April 19, 2010

Today Marked the Completion of Gold's Correction Begun Last Monday

Gold Price Close Today : 1135.20
Change: -1.10 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.725
Change 5.6 cents or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1696.00
Change: -31.50 or -1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today: 534.70
Change: -13.30 or -2.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.05
Change: -0.265 or -0.4%

Dow Industrial: 11,095.05
Change: 73.39 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index: 80.95
Change: 0.03 or 0.0%

Overnight the GOLD PRICE traded lower to $1,123.60, but bounded smartly off that level up to $1,135 resistance. On Comex it closed at $1,135.20, down $1.10 from Friday. Now $1,137 has become the price to beat, and $1,124 the price that gold must defend against all adversaries.

While viewed as catastrophic in some quarters, gold's fall has only returned to the neckline of the upside down head and shoulders formed January - April. That would be typical behaviour for markets, touching back to the breakout point for one last kiss good-bye before blasting off into a rally. This does not signal weakness, but proves support and confirms the rally. If gold closes below $1,124, that outlook would be proven dead wrong.

The lynch mob cornered the SILVER PRICE at $17.465, but silver faced them off and ran 'me away. Nothing terribly amiss here, only silver must not close below $17.50. Silver closed at $17.725, up 5.6c from Friday.

Yes, I would buy both silver and gold right here. Y'all were waiting for a correction, don't go all weak- kneed and sweaty on me now.

Right, wrong, or crazy-as-a-betsy-bug, here's my outlook. Today marked the completion of gold's correction begun last Monday after the $1,161.50 high close. Now gold is entering its next rally after the December $1,226 high. If it performs as usual, silver can be expected to outperform gold in this leg up, pulling the gold/silver ratio below 50:1.

Okay, I confess, this is a risky interpretation, but what I believe is most likely. Based on past seasonal performance, silver & gold could rally into early June. If I am wrong, you'll have to wait until next fall for significantly higher prices, and endure a long hot summer of meaningless back & forth trading.

STOCKS plainly found help after 14:30 today from A Friend With Deep Pockets. Dow ended the day up an improbable 73.39 at 11,092.05. S&P500 rose 5.9 to close at 11,97.52, while the Nasdaq fell slightly along with other indices. This was not a strong showing.

Stocks are topping, but just as an elephant takes a long time to sit down, so stocks are a colossal market and ponderously slow to change course & direction. Cultivate longsuffering, withstand seduction, stay out of stocks.

The US DOLLAR INDEX barely reached its 20 day moving average (81.07) with today's 81.28 high, but settled below 81 and now is trading at 80.945, up only 2.8 basis points -- Hey! Louise! Hand me my magnifying glass! Looks like the Goldman-Sachs supercharge hath spent itself. Dollar remains below its short term downtrend line that has reigned and ruled for the last month. No change.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, April 16, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices Remain Above Their Uptrend Lines

Gold Price Close Today : 1,136.30
Gold Price Close 9th April : 1,161.10
Change: -24.80 or -2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.664
Silver Price 9th April : 18.34
Change -67.60 cents or -3.7%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,690.30
Platinum Price 9th April : 1,722.30
Change: -32.00 or -1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 530.00
Palladium Price 9th April : 512.30
Change: 17.70 or 3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 64.33
Gold Silver Ratio 9th April : 63.31
Change: 1.02 or 1.6%

Dow Industrial: 11,018.66
Dow Industrial 9th April : 10,997.35
Change: 21.31 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.832
US Dollar Index 9th April : 80.885
Change: -0.05 or -0.1%

Bombshell landed on markets today, a real man-bites-dog story. The Securities and Exchange Commission, after so long turning a blind eye, today brought a civil suit against Goldman Sachs charging fraud. SEC suit alleges Goldman Sachs colluded with hedge fund Paulson & Co. to sell to the hedge fund CDOs to sell for their customers after the hedge fund took a short position against the same CDOs. Or, in the SEC's snappy phrasing, "Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio while telling other investors that the securities were selected by
an independent, objective third party."

Looking a a potential billion dollar loss, Goldman stock fell 20%. That plunge sucked down other bank stocks, which in turn generously sucked down the dow 125.91 (1.13%) to a cosmetically attractive 11,018.66, and the S&P500 down 19.52 (1.61%) to 1,192.13.

The logic of the falling stocks is plain. First, banking sector was slammed, 2nd, uncertainty and apprehension about a new round of bank crises scares stock investors, and 3rd, and probably most influential, stocks were already trembling on tippy-toes to reach higher and so were especially vulnerable to any body block from any direction.

Ask me not, however, the logic of gold dropping as well . . . Unless hedge funds pressed for cash or margin calls liquidated positions, or from fear dumped gold, or the Nice Government Men slammed gold to preempt any flight out of stocks and the dollar into gold. Most likely it was one scared market spooking another, but the world of contradictions, anomalies, and paradoxes is the one we live in, thanks to the Almighty yankee government & the Federal Reserve.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rose 35 basis points to 80.832, its highest price in five days but still in a downtrend, and slightly lower than last Friday's close. The dollar index could rise to 81 but must beat 82 to break out of the present downtrend. Not much evidence here of a panic into the dollar. In fact, nothing has changed since today's rise did not boost the dollar index back into the uptrend channel.

A reader wrote me today taunting me with my commentary from yesterday and exclaiming, "What a disaster!" Well, no, it's not.

Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES held at the bottom of the range we have been watching, 17.20 and $1,135. Gold's low came at $1,130.50, silver's at 17.58. The gold price closed down on Comex $23.40 at $1,136.30 while silver lost a whopping 75.5 cents to close at 17.76.

All right, what now? Two outcomes are possible: metals can all or rise from here. Take the first first. Silver might revisit 16.50 and gold $1,085. Tis possible, but maybe today was a one day occurrence. Remember that even counting today's drops silver and gold prices remain above their uptrend lines. The trend has not been violated, so until that happens they are still in an uptrend.

SILVER today hit its 20 DMA at 17.65 but closed pennies above. Gold abode above its 20 DMA ($1,127) -- barely.

So maybe today's events were not a disaster after all, just the final leg of a correction. If so, then silver and gold prices will continue rising and more strongly because the weak holders have been shaken out.

Me, I have to buy at these support levels. Risky? Yes, but so is life, unless you want to spend it locked in a dungeon in solitary confinement where nothing can get you.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, April 15, 2010

The Silver Price is Pounding on $18.50's Door and Ought to Burst Through Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1159.70
Change: 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.424
Change 2.0 cents or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1718.00
Change: -9.50 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 543.50
Change: -4.50 or -0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.95
Change: -0.030 or -0.0%

Dow Industrial: 11,145.25
Change: 22.14 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.47
Change: 0.28 or 0.4%

To my tastes, the GOLD PRICE today, finished cooking this correction. Yes, $1,161.50 has blocked gold the last two days, but today's low at $1,150 gave the five day chart the look of having completed an A-B-C correction. If I'm reading it right, tomorrow will follow through with a rise up to or through $1,170. Any close below $1,140 knocks all that in the head. Gold today closed $1,159.70, up 70 cents.

Rising 2 cents to close on Comex at $18.424 silver's chart mirrors gold, only stronger. The SILVER PRICE is pounding on $18.50's door and ought to burst through tomorrow. Think about this: even if the silver price fell to $17.50, it would abide in the same uptrend. Next target, $18.90.

Yesterday I wrote, "Today's Dow intraday high at 11,125.22 almost touched the 200 day moving average at 11,133.87." That was an error. I meant that 11,133 was the 200 WEEK moving average. The 200 DAY MA stands about 9,991. That may make no sense to you, but really it does. The rally since spring 2009 has carried the Dow above its 200 DAY MA but not above the longer term 200 WEEK MA. The Dow remains at or below its 200 Week MA.

Y'all can visit www.nasdaq.com for daily charts of the Dow, S&P500, Nasdaq, and other stock indices. If you do today, you'll see how stocks vacillated today, opening down and dropping, rising again, dropping again, up and down, oscillating around unchanged and unable to hold on to all its gains. The Dow rose 22.14 to 11,145.25 &: the S&P 500 added a gargantuan 1.1 to close at 1,211.75. Time is ticking on the Dow, and it won't be long now till the alarm goes off. Only the fatally naïve and ignorant would buy this market.

Yes, I do understand that the Dow has risen to my 11,100 target and slightly past. Makes no significant difference to my outlook: the end is nigh.

The US DOLLAR INDEX climbed to 80.755, matching Tuesday's high and capping the chart with a double top. For three long days now the dollar has languished below the uptrend line stretching back to December, and below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Today's performance saves nothing, and puts a lock on a much larger fall unless the dollar can close above 80.75.




Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, April 14, 2010

If Silver and Gold Prices Stage a Strong Rally Into May, Then We May See the Opportunity to Swap Silver for Gold at 47.5

Gold Price Close Today : 1159.00
Change: 6.20 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.404
Change 16.6 cents or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1727.50
Change: 14.70 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today: 548.00
Change: 22.50 or 4.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.98
Change: -0.233 or -0.4%

Dow Industrial: 11,123.11
Change: 103.69 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index: 80.21
Change: -0.30 or -0.4%

Making up losses today by rising $6.20 to $1,159, the GOLD PRICE still left me a bit undecided. I have been expecting a short correction, but is it over yet? Tomorrow might drop again toward $1,145 - $1,140, or just as easily rise to $1,170. First seems a hair more like to my shallow mind. If the gold price does drop, buy silver and gold like mad.

Now the SILVER PRICE either made its correction low yesterday at $17.92 or will push down once more tomorrow to, say, $18.20. $18.40 has become the barrier for the silver price to overcome. Above that point, silver takes off.

If SILVER and GOLD PRICES stage a strong rally into May, then we may see the opportunity to swap silver for gold at 47.5. Better get ready. When it happens, it happens fast. You can still enter open orders with us.

STOCKS reached my longstanding 11,100 high target today by closing at 11,123.11, up 103.69. This advance, like the larger advance from March 2009, takes the form of a stretched-out narrow rising wedge, a figure that usually collapses to the downside. I still think that the encompassing pattern from January is a broadening top. A new high today doesn't gainsay that but agrees with it. S&P 500 closed 1,210.64, up 13.35.

Today's Dow intraday high at 11,125.22 almost touched the 200 day moving average at 11,133.87. That typically happens in bear (primary downtrend) markets. Bear markets trade most of the time below their 200 DMA, occasionally staging a bear market rally that reaches for and at times even touches the 200 DMA before collapsing.

Did I make my point? Stay out of stocks. As I write, y'all are watching it top.

Now if I were charged with manipulating the stock market, what would I have done today? Bought heavily on the open to drive it above 11,000 and pull in all those vultures watching from the power lines along the road. What did happen? Market opened gap up at 11,020.70 and the rest is [official] history. Whether the move was caused by man made or natural forces, the top is still as near. Stay out, stay out.

The US DOLLAR INDEX obliged stocks today by sinking 29.6 basis points to 80.211. Between Monday and today it has bounced off 80+, made a low trajectory curve, and fallen back to 80+ again today. Three strikes and you're out. Next time the dollar hits 80, 'twill fall through.

Dollar index remains in a correction within an intermediate term uptrend unless it closes below 78. Lower close today below both 20 and 50 DMAs loudly insists the correction will reach for the 200 DMA, now at 78.14.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Market is Offering Silver and Gold on Sale

Gold Price Close Today : 1152.80
Change: -8.80 or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.238
Change -16.5 cents or -0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1712.80
Change: -19.10 or -1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today: 525.25
Change: 6.75 or 1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.21
Change: 0.089 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial: 11,019.42
Change: 13.45 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index: 80.47
Change: -0.10 or -0.1%

Life always threatens us with such a blizzard of details that the horizon, the long term, is obscured. Worse, our fragile minds only hold a few trains of thought at a time, and we are easily drawn off the point. So it is with SILVER and GOLD PRICES. Reports of this or that news and threats of a decreasing fiat money supply and growling from Bernanke and other dollar shills draw us away -- as they are intended to do -- from the important long term conclusion, and the actions that requires.

What is that? That every fiat currency in history has been destroyed by inflation, and that the dollar will follow that course. Therefore, we can only protect ourselves by swapping dollars for alternative sound currencies, namely, silver and gold.

There's more for our particular time. The US and other governments manipulated the silver and gold markets downward to suppress prices. This created a flood of paper silver and gold, or, stated conversely, an colossal short position in silver and gold. That means that they have sold silver and gold that existeth not, so when the music ends and everybody dives for a chair, most of the chairs will have no gold and silver on them. This short-squeeze will drive silver and gold prices even higher than the inflation alone would have driven them.

Conclusion? Buy physical silver and gold and take possession, waiting for the long term rise and don't fret about short term ups and downs. Above all, buy no paper gold or silver schemes like the ETFs SLV and GLD, etc., etc.

For more meditation in this same vein, see James Turk's article, http://www.fgmr.com/another-short-squeeze-in-the-precious-metals.html. For those of you who have been asking me to comment on London bullion trader Andrew Maguire's allegations that JP Morgan is manipulating the silver and gold markets, this is it above.

The SILVER PRICE turned in a snappy performance. It broke to a new low for the move at $17.93 about 11:00, then stair-stepped smartly back to $18.20. On comex the silver price closed down 16.5c to $18.238. What meaneth this display? Lots and lots of hungry buyers hanging around $17.90 ready to lay their money down and take a position. That is strong support underneath the market. I would be a buyer amongst them because this should be a very short correction, over this week at longest. What's the check on my optimism? A close below $17.60 gainsays this forecast.

The GOLD PRICE behaved like silver today. Somebody hit the gold price with selling about 9:30 and drove it from its $1157 high down to $1145 by 11:15. Then the gold price turned around and walked back over $1,150 for the rest of the day. Comex closed (12:30 Central time) at $1,152.80, down $8.80. This correction -- more a pause to catch breath -- ought not break $1,140, maybe hit $1,135 on a spike, and ought to end by Thursday or Friday.

Market is offering silver and gold on sale. Buy it.

Yesterday and today the DOW has created a broadening top formation, the outline of a megaphone with mouth opening rightward. This is a frustrating formation that makes new lows, but then slightly higher highs, and leaves you always wondering whether that's what you are watching or not.

Today's Dow chart was honking strange. It fiddled around unchanged, then dropped deeply around 10:45, then make a slow climb to unchanged. After that came weak action oscillating around or slightly above unchanged, and then -- surprise, surprise! -- comes in the last 30 minutes a rise to 13.45 above yesterday's close for a close today at 11,019.42. That in itself is no great shakes, but the whole thing smells all over of rotten mackerel and Nice Government Men.

The US DOLLAR INDEX Opened at 80.695, made a high at 890.885, a low at 80.395, and is trading now at 80.467, down 9.5 basis points from yesterday. Most of todays trading was rangebound between 80.50 and 80.80. If the dollar breaks out on either side it will run in that direction. The Dollar index stands now below the 20 DMA (80.98) and a smidge under 50 DMA (80.53). That ought to confirm a downmove, but then, Forces are At Work in the dollar which rationality and normal market behaviour cannot forecast or foresee, namely, NGM.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, April 12, 2010

This is Probably the Breather I Have Wanted to See for Silver and Gold Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1161.60
Change: 0.50 or 0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.403
Change 6.3 cents or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1731.90
Change: 9.90 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today: 518.50
Change: 5.90 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.12
Change: -0.190 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial: 11,019.72
Change: 22.37 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index: 80.89
Change: -0.65 or -0.8%

Sorry, I have to send this out early today because I have a doctor's appointment and today is my wife, Susan's birthday, so I get to take her out to supper. Prices shown above are not closes, except for SILVER and GOLD PRICES.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES closed up marginally. The SILVER PRICE rose 6.3c to $18.403 while the GOLD PRICE climbed a monumental 50c to $1,161.60. This is probably the breather I have wanted to see for silver and gold prices. As long as the gold price stays above, ohhh, $1,140, maybe $1,134, it will be on track. The silver price must not fall below $17.90.

The Dow finally climbed above 11,019.72, up 22.37. S&P has nearly made 1,200 at 11,98.19, up 3.82. Cheer not, O stock promoters and Wall Street pimps! This signals not the day of your victory, but the day of your doom drawing closer. Still expect Dow to get as far as 11,100, then sink straight toward the bottom, taking many forlorn hopes with it.

US DOLLAR INDEX is up 38.3 basis points at 80.573. Nothing significant happening with the dollar today as long as it remains around here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, April 09, 2010

Gold Price Makes a Confirmed Breakout

Gold Price Close Today : 1161.10
Gold Price Close 26th March : 1125.10
Change: 36.00 or 3.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.34
Silver Price 26th March : 17.876
Change 46.40 cents or 2.6%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,722.30
Platinum Price 26th March : 1,667.20
Change: 55.10 or 3.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 512.30
Palladium Price 26th March : 488.85
Change: 23.45 or 4.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.31
Gold Silver Ratio 26th March : 62.94
Change: 0.37 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial: 10,997.35
Dow Industrial 26th March : 10,927.07
Change: 70.28 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index: 80.885
US Dollar Index 26th March : 80.888
Change: -0.00 or -0.0%

For the US DOLLAR INDEX, 'twas a week full of sound and fury, signifying nothing but losing 0.3 basis point. Pitiful.

OWCH! The Dollar index slid through 81.20 support then finding no purchase, kept on sliding all the way down 64.9 basis points to 80.885. That's a smidge below the 20 day moving average at 80.93. Not far removed lies the 50 DMA at 80.48, coincidentally another support area. Dollar ought to drop the rest of the way to 79.50 at least, maybe as far as 79.00. A peek below 79.00 would be deadly, pole-axing the dollar and its prospects for resuming a rally.

Don't y'all think it's odd that on the very day the Dow makes a new high for the move, the Dow in Gold Dollars makes a new low for the move at G$195.79 (9.471oz)? That shouts that stocks have turned down against gold, and that shortly stocks will also begin losing in US dollar terms as well.

The Dow rose today 70.28 to 10,997.35, rather than following through on yesterday's fall. As I have been moaning and groaning and warning all the way up, 'tis likely the Dow will hit 11,100 (now just about the 200 week moving average at 11,133.33). Truth is, regardless what the prostitutes in Washington and pimps on Wall Street say, this rally is built on imagination, foolhardiness, ignorance, fraud, and false hope because all economic facts are laughing in its teeth.

Stay away from stocks. Get out now if you have any. A big fall loometh, probably not later than end of April.

As a professional worrier my heart doesn’t exactly sing when gold rises 10 out of the last 11 days and for the last 7 days running. Every market needs to breath now and then. But behold! The January closing (not intraday) high was $1,150.70. Last two day's closes were $1,152.30 and $1,152.20, and today gold rose another $8.90 to $1,161.1. That is a confirmed breakout. On the weekly chart gold has climbed above its 20 week moving average.

The upside-down head and shoulders gold traced out from December to April points to a target of $1,240. Gold should reach $1,200 anyway, where the speculators will rush in to sell. I'm not so much worried about gold as I am what is driving it. What looming disasters have we not yet identified that are driving gold?

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell to 63.03 today. 'Tis trending down, right enough, but I want to see it fall through 63, 62.5, then 60. Only then will we get that startling tumble that will set us up for a swap from silver into gold.

The SILVER PRICE chart, believe it or not, doesn't appear quite as hyperactively manic as gold's. With little resistance between here and 18.90, silver will attack that barrier next week. Of course, every smarty who trades commodities & thinks he can read a chart will want to sell silver there, so expect strong resistance. I didn't say silver would fail (I don't know) but it will have to wrestle with Godzilla at 18.90. This week silver broke above its 20 week moving average, so it may have only begun to climb. It's certainly set up for bigger gains.

If any strategy at all makes sense, you have to buy breakouts. Of course you don't believe them -- you never do -- but that's only a bull market climbing a wall of worry.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, April 08, 2010

Gold Price Looks a Mite Winded.

Gold Price Close Today : 1152.50
Change: -0.1 or -0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.116
Change -6.9 cents or -0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1714.00
Change: 8.50 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 506.25
Change: -1.65 or -0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.62
Change: 0.236 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial: 10,927.07
Change: 29.55 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index: 81.54
Change: 0.09 or 0.1%

The Dow found friends about noon-thirty and climbed to recoup about 2/3 of yesterday's loss. Hmmmmm. Now 10,940 is the line to beat and 10,840 the line to hold. The Dow might still surprise and turn up to touch 11,000 once before sinking beneath the waves, but odds favour that we have already seen the top. Dow closed today 10,927.07 up. S&P500 wowed the world with a 3.99 rise to 1,186.44.

Dow In Gold Dollars keeps on slipping, today to G$195.50 (9.457 oz). Any break below G$193.00 (9.336 oz) sends the Dow shooting down the chute.

US DOLLAR INDEX five day chart is so choppy that it's hard to parse. However, a rise to a new high for the move today -- 81.907 up 46.4 basis points -- with a lower close -- 81.535, up only 9.2 bps -- doesn't show much muscle. The dollar remains in a correction within an uptrend. Barring a close above 82.24, expect lower prices tomorrow or next week. We will find out whether this is the end of the dollar rally when the dollar meets what ought to be support at 79.50 - 79.00.

Another equivocal day for metals. The GOLD PRICE closed on the Comex down a gigantic dime to $1,152.20, leaving behind a double top on the 5-day chart. Gold might correct down to $1,138, even $1,130 before the rally begins again in earnest. Gold Price looks a mite winded. However, moving above $1,155 would nix all that and carry gold higher immediately.

SILVER'S chart is not even as straightforward as gold's, and gold's is pretty mysterious. Here's a guess: tomorrow a rise toward 18.25, then lower Monday, even down to 17.80 and end of the correction. But whether that ensues or silver slips lower tomorrow, it shouldn't break 17.80 if it wants to remain in an uptrend. Closed today on Comex at 18.116, down 6.9c.

Only fact nagging me about the silver price -- and I am a professional worrier, remember -- is that premiums have softened on the way up. US 90% silver coin has fallen from 35c under spot (basis wholesale buy price) to 50c under spot while 100 oz. name brand silver bars have given up 30c an ounce from 65c over spot to 35c (basis wholesale sell price). Softening premiums sometimes go hand in hand with topping markets.

Any silver close above 18.25 will send silver rocketing toward $19.50.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, April 07, 2010

The Rally Remains On Track as Long as the Gold Price Stays Perched Above $1,130

Gold Price Close Today : 1152.30
Change: 17.20 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.185
Change 26.8 cents or 1.5%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1705.50
Change: 8.00 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today: 507.90
Change: 2.70 or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.37
Change: 0.012 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial: 10,897.52
Change: -72.47 or -0.7%

US Dollar Index: 81.59
Change: 0.20 or 0.2%

Did y'all notice that a higher dollar today slowed down SILVER and GOLD PRICES not a whit?

The GOLD PRICE burst the chains of $1140 resistance and ran up to $1,153.13. Closed on Comex up $17.20 at $1,152.30, proving that that tee-tiny breakout yesterday was genuine, indeed. Yet the gold price stalled just above $1,150. That looks great because it lies above the March intraday high at $1,144.80, but the gold price needeth yet to beat January's $1,161.80. The gold price has risen 5 days running, so it may take a breather the next few days. Never mind, the rally remains on track as long as gold stays perched above $1,130.

The SILVER PRICE breached $18.10 without even slowing down and climbed to $18.23 before closing on Comex up 26.8c at $18.185. Since 22 March the silver price has climbed from $16.70 to $18.25. It could also use a rest, but on the other hand very little resistance opposes silver between here and $18.90.

Today the Dow answered my question of yesterday -- was it topping or consolidating -- by plunging 72.57 to close at 10,897.52. (S&P dropped 6.99 to 1,182.45). 'Twould be a bit odd if the Dow bounced back from this. It has dropped down out of a long rising wedge, itself a very bearish formation. Let's see how the Dow handles its 20 day moving average, now at 10,801 tomorrow. Falling through that would signal lower prices as the next course served. RSI and MACD are so overbought and overdue for correction they make my nose bleed just looking at them. We probably have seen the peak in stocks -- not certain yet, but strong suspicion.

US DOLLAR INDEX may have run out of gas today. It rose 20 basis points to 81.587, about the top of the last 7 days' trading range. Sure, there's a chance it may climb to re-visit 82.24 and post a flashing double top, but probably not. Still, close above 82.24 would re-open the dollar rally.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, April 06, 2010

Gold Price Closed Barely Above its Downtrend Line (from the January and March tops)

Gold Price Close Today : 1135.10
Change: 2.20 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.917
Change -18.7 cents or -1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1697.50
Change: -5.70 or -0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today: 505.20
Change: 3.10 or 0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.35
Change: 0.776 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial: 10,969.99
Change: -3.56 or -0.0%

US Dollar Index: 81.37
Change: 0.27 or 0.3%


Recall that I was alertly watching the Dow in Gold Dollars last week because it had reached the upper limit of the range, and threatened to climb over, proving that gold is no longer in a bull market and stocks are a good buy after all. Well, that didn't happen. DiG$ has been falling to below G$200 today, G$199.99 in fact (9.675 oz). This shouts that Gold's winter has passed, and stocks', notwithstanding the time of year, have entered their winter.

Amongst the metals, this was one of those dreaded days where the market blew hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth: The GOLD PRICE rose and silver fell. Confusion. Bewilderment. After a strong day on Monday (up $7.80), gold climbed again today by $2.20 to $1,135.10 at Comex close. Backing away for a longer term view, this $1,135 baffled and stymied gold in March. Yet technically by a couple of bucks gold closed barely above its downtrend line(from the January and March tops). This is an upside breakout from an even-sided triangle, but gold must confirm that with a higher close tomorrow. RSI and MACD leave plenty or room for gold to climb higher. Are y'all really surprised gold would meet heavy resistance here? Shouldn't be. Manipulated or not, it's an obvious obstacle on the chart.

The SILVER PRICE tried to break through $18.10 yesterday and today, but was thrown back. Comex closed today at $17.917, down 18.7c. Yet how ever you look at the chart, the silver price has broken out above its downtrend line from the December and January highs. This remains true as long as silver remains above $17.60. The silver price must not break $17.80. The rule of thumb says, "A trend in force remains in force until violated." Therefore, unless the silver price closed below $17.60 or the gold price below $1,130, the uptrend remains in force.

US DOLLAR INDEX bottomed last week on Thursday at 80.70 and Friday jumped to 81.30. Wonder who was trading on Good Firday? Yesterday Monday) the scrofulous Samoleon traded sideways to lower from 81.30 to 81.90. Early in the morning Tuesday (New York time) the dollar started climbing at a high at 81.64 today. Then it backed off to is present 81.368, up 27.4 bps. Whither the dollar? My best guess is that the dollar in a corrective downtrend that began eight days ago at 82.24 intraday high. It dropped to hit the 20 day moving average (80.79). What you are seeing now is the bounce off that 20 DMA, preparatory to another fall. Target for this move is still 79.50 to 79. A close above 82.24 would change my mind.

Stocks indices today were strangely mixed. The Dow made a new 52 week high but closed down 3.56 at 10,969.99. S&P, on the other hand, rose 2 points to 1,189.44. What in the world does that say? Five day chart shows the Dow wrestling with 10,990 and being thrown. Is this a top or a continuation? Dow may yet reach 11,100 but the presidential cycle is bearing down on it like an 18 wheeler on a reckless armadillo, namely, fast, as April passes away.

I hope y'all had an Easter celebration as wonderful as ours was here. On top of everything else the weather was picture-perfect and the entire congregation sang parts in perfect harmony. For the feast my daughter Liberty prepared roast lamb crusted with parsely, garlic, sea salt, lemon juice, mustard & olive oil. As food goes, this lamb was heaven.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, April 01, 2010

The Gold Price Rolled Up Off its Right Shoulder Low and Today Hammered its Way Through Resistance to Close at $1,125.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1,125.10
Gold Price Close 26th March : 1,104.30
Change: 20.80 or 1.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.876
Silver Price 26th March : 16.892
Change 98.40 cents or 5.8%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1,667.20
Platinum Price 26th March : 1,597.40
Change: 69.80 or 4.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 488.85
Palladium Price 26th March : 455.35
Change: 33.50 or 7.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 62.94
Gold Silver Ratio 26th March : 65.37
Change: -2.44 or -3.7%

Dow Industrial: 10,927.07
Dow Industrial 26th March : 10,850.89
Change: 76.18 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index: 80.888
US Dollar Index 26th March : 81.623
Change: -0.74 or -0.9%

What a week! Stocks smothered, dollar swooned, metals danced.

Gold's upside-down head and shoulders paid off this week. The GOLD PRICE rolled up off its right shoulder low and today hammered its way through yesterday's $1,113.30 close through $1,118 and $1,125 resistance to close at $1,125.10, up $11.80. H&S neckline is at $1,135, big resistance at $1,134, so once the gold price pierces that veil it will begin a long push up. Of course, it must confirm the uptrend along the way, but will have a target of $1,250. Any close below $1,118 gainsays that outlook. Otherwise, buy.

The SILVER PRICE gapped up on US opening, crushing $17.65 resistance on its leap for $18.00. Gaps show either great strength (in an uptrending market) or great weakness (in a downtrending market). As I've been warning, the silver price didn't have much resistance between $17.50 and $18.00. Comex closed today at a face saving $17.876, up 36.4c. Above us lies virtually no resistance between $18.00 and $18.90. Nearing $18.90 hordes of sellers will pour out of the woodwork like roaches in a New York City tenement. Why? In December silver failed at $19.45, not reaching a new high as gold did. Speculators will be betting silver will fail again.

But all that lieth in the future. For now the silver price is above all its moving averages, having bested its 20 day MA at $17.15 three days ago, first proof of an upmove. Also the RSI and MACD have plenty of room for more climbing. Silver's weekly chart is also smiling on us just as broadly. This past week silver rose 98c, up 5.8%.

Next week had better be an upweek for the silver . Oh, it might rest the first couple of days, but must not close lower than $17.50. A rise would fit the seasonal pattern that often peaks in April or May after a March low. Average seasonal silver gain from 31 December to May peak is 13.5%, which in 2010 produces a target of $19.09. Now that's just talking, because seasonal patterns are averages, and as useful and accurate as all averages. (Take a 9 foot man and a three foot man and average their heights and you get six feet.) Me, I'm buying silver.

With an 80.751 close today the US DOLLAR INDEX may not seem to have sunk much since yesterdays 80.888, down only 24.8 basis point, yet the chart telleth another tale. The dollar tried to climb over the fence, but was caught and thrown back by guards at 81.20. then it fell below 80.80, yesterday's low. Big drop is looming next. Target for this move remains 79.50, then the dollar ought to renew its uptrend. That is, unless it breaks 79 first, which would be equal to a tourist sticking his head in a guillotine and unthinkingly pulling the release rope.

Dollar is hanging onto its 20 day moving average at 80.72. Crossing that will be the first step of a larger tumble. Or is that "tumbrel"?

Stocks didn't lay an Easter egg today after all. After a lot of sawing up and down between 10,820 and 10,950 the Dow stopped at 10,927.07, up 70.44 (S&P500 closed 1,178.1, up 8.67). Presidential year cycle is calling for stocks to begin a stiff decline this month. RSI & MACD look ridiculously overbought, and have for a long time. There's an upward wedge begging to decline. Stay away.

In Washington President Barack Obama resigned today. The Democratic Party elected as his replacement the world-famous actor and renowned statesman, Daffy Duck. When reached at his home in Orlando, Mr. Duck says that he is looking forward to -- QUAWCK! -- leading the country out of its economic woes. A noted anti-gun activist, Mr. Duck said he would move rapidly to outlaw duck hunting and roast duck. At the same time he cited the burgeoning problem of illegal chickens in this country, and suggested he would introduce legislation mandating the switch from duck to chicken in menus across the country. Most of all Mr. Duck promised to repair the White House image by avoiding even the appearance of pandering to special interests.

Hey -- today is April first, isn't it?


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Gold Price Doesn’t Seem to Have Much Steam

Gold Price Close Today : 1113.30
Change: 8.80 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.512
Change 19.6 cents or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today: 1639.70
Change: 22.60 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today: 476.60
Change: 6.60 or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today: 63.57
Change: -0.211 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial: 10,856.63
Change: -50.79 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index: 81.00
Change: -0.47 or -0.6%

Let's talk about the scrofulous US dollar and its index. It can say bye-bye to prices above 81 for a while. Low today was 80.891 and right now it's trading at 80.999, down 47.1 basis points. Recall that for the past few months usual moves in a day are from 5 to 25 basis points. Dollar traded a little higher overnight, then while y'all were mostly in bed snoozing, the dollar was jumping over a cliff -- well, it looks like a cliff on a daily chart, dropping from 81.69 all the way to 80.891, lower than any of yesterday's trading. 79.50, here comes the dollar!

For those mechanistic and naïve pundits who believe life is always "dollar down/stocks up" this day's trading held a little jolt. Stocks opened the race today behind, fell a little less behind, then fell behind some more. Dow fell 50.79 points to 10,856.63 while the S&P500 fell 38.4 to 1,169.43, right in step with the limping dollar. I believe we saw the top in stocks a few days ago, but like a dead rattler, you'd best leave it lay until you're sure its dead. Whether sooner or later, though, stocks in 3 months will be much lower than today.

The GOLD PRICE found its spine today, rising $8.80 to clear $1,112 resistance and close at $1,113.30. Not by much, but by some. Case y'all haven't noticed, gold broke out of that $1105 - $1115 range it traded in on Monday when on Tuesday it broke down. But gold wasn't broken, it held on above $1,100, then today climbed to $1,117.95 but failed to find a grip there just under $1,118 resistance. I have to guess because I'm not there to witness it, but it looks like there's no great outside money coming or going in the market, just floor traders shoving it back and forth for $2 trades. Of course, somebody was trying to push gold's nose back below $1,100, hoping it might drown, but gold fought back.

It's a picky thing, but gold seems sickly as it is rising. If it bulls through $1,118 tomorrow to $1,134, you'll know it wasn't sickly and I am missing something. I don't expect gold to fall down, just doesn’t seem to have much steam.

Then again, you might also explain the whole thing by a double holiday week combining Passover and Holy Week. That surely distracts a lot of traders and thins the market. Okay, for all this back and forth, what am I in fact doing? Buying.

No big rush here, but can't seem to keep silver in stock. Quick as I load up, somebody quietly buys it, and my wagon is empty again.

Today silver hit the ceiling at 17.60 as I was expecting, but didn't burst through (as I was also expecting). Silver may need to rest and breathe a bit, looking at the last five days. However, once it clears 17.60 it will jump. Today silver rose 19.6c to close at 17.512, a handsome number symbolically higher than 17.50 at least.

Sitting here typing this looking out the window at a silk-smooth spring day is torture. All the forsythia is blooming, and daffodils. Yellow is the color of spring, I guess, but we had a spring mule born two days ago & he was coal black with long black fur.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2009, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.