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Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices are Performing Exactly as You Would Expect if They Intended to Burst Through Old Resistance

Gold Price Close Today : 1248.30
Change : 11.40 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.382
Change : 0.372 cents or 2.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1528.00
Change : -2.00 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 505.00
Change : 6.00 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.41
Change : -0.661 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial : 10,014.72
Change : 4.99 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 83.11
Change : -0.028 or 0.0%

Today's tale is soon told: stocks wallowed, dollar equivocated, SILVER and GOLD PRICES soared like eagles above the mundane worries and cares of this sublunary globe.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES must have heard my warning yesterday and heeded it, because both took to their heels today. The SILVER PRICE added 37.2c to reach 1938.2c at Comex close, gold added $11.40 to end at $1,248.30. Today's close brings silver, sweet silver, back to the top of the range we have been fighting since May, no, since 2008. Now, now, silver dig in the spurs and ply the whip and race ahead!

The GOLD PRICE also finds itself smack against resistance at $1,250, really the last high close, $1,255. Oh, what fireworks, what pyrotechnics, what groaning of croakers and doubters who have been predicting gold's demise when gold smashes through that $1,255 mark!

Be still, my beating heart, and look at the other hand. If silver and gold were going to fail, this would be the place. Always must bear in mind that nothing is a given with markets until after it happens. Yet in answer I must add that silver and gold prices are performing exactly as you would expect if they intended to burst through old resistance.

If silver and gold prices close through that resistance tomorrow, close your eyes and buy all you can stand.

US Dollar index continues to refuse to commit itself to any direction. Oh, choppy, choppy was today's action. It did come up off that double bottom from Thursday and Friday at 82.65, and climbed (clomb? Clamb?) as high as 83.342. Alas, the dollar's nose then began bleeding, and it pursued a zig-zag course down to 82.877. Now it's trading at 83.106, down only 2.8 basis points from yesterday, so y'all can see it recovered at least that much. Dollar is headed higher, but faces a tremendous headwind.

Now why would investors be so prejudiced against the Almighty Dollar? Maybe they don't speak Bernankese, either.

STOCKS painted about as miserable a picture today as one might long to see. Dow began the day by plunging 70 points, then climbed above unchanged about 11:00 a.m. fought back and forth toward 10,076, up about 65 points, then collapsed as the day threatened to close at 2:30, but Whoops! Looky there! It close up 4.99 points at 10,014.72. S&P followed suit, up 0.41 to 1,049.33. This is pitiful. Perhaps it will satisfy the hoi polloi who listen once a day and know only that stocks rose or fell, but look at the inward performance, and you must despair of stocks. Stay out of stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, August 30, 2010

The Gold Price Needs to Move Higher. Soon.

Gold Price Close Today : 1236.90
Change : 1.30 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.010
Change : (0.029) cents or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1530.00
Change : -1.00 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 499.00
Change : -5.00 or -1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.07
Change : 0.167 or 0.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,009.74
Change : -140.92 or -1.4%

US Dollar Index : 83.18
Change : 0.364 or 0.4%

Looking over both SILVER and GOLD PRICES thoughtfully, today was neither exciting nor encouraging.

The SILVER PRICE vibrated sideways from $19.18 to $18.92, but mostly swung back and forth over $19.00. Comex closed down 2.9c at $19.01, and right now the silver price is trading at $19.06. From here $19.30 must be beat, then $19.70.

This could be good, this could be bad. Expect that the silver price must work up strength to breach resistance at $19.70 that so often has turned it back in the past. On the other hand, the silver price cannot forever stand still, but must push high to make good and confirm gains already made. I would not want to see silver close below $18.85.

The GOLD PRICE fluttered sideways, too, between $1,233.30 and $1,238.15. On the 5-day chart this gives the last three days a bowlish shape which might be a rounding bottom. The gold price must not close below $1,232 and up above must break through $1,240. Comex today closed up 1.30 at $1,236.90. Gold needs to move higher. Soon.

Nobody can really parse what Bernanke said over the weekend, but maybe it had some effect on the dollar's little rise today, up 36.4 basis points to 83.175. On the 5-day chart this sketched a strong rise away from Thursday and Friday's double bottom at 82.65. Resistance here stands at 83.20, and the dollar looks ready to bull thru that and crash the next resistance at 83.50. Today it closed above the 50 DMA (83.08). The 20 DMA likes below at 82.16, but is curving up toward the 50 DMA. MACD is pointing up but histogram nags a little. RSI is high but not oversold. Dollar should move higher.

Every day small things appear that give us cause to turn to heaven with thanksgiving. For me today, one is that I do not belong to the Nice Government Men tasked with keeping the stock market afloat. After Friday's rise of 122.23, the Dow today lost 140.92 to close at 10,009.74. (S&P fell 15.67 to 1,049.92). All that heavy lifting the NGM did on Friday to boost the Dow above 10,000 just evaporated and they're right back where they started, like Sisyphus rolling the rock up the hill only to see it roll right back down. Me, oh, my. The Dow is 9.74 points from crashing the morale-breaking 10,000 point, it stands below its 200, 20, and 50 day moving averages, other indicators all point down -- It's enough to send a NGM reaching for the bicarbonate of soda.

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Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, August 27, 2010

The Gold Price at the End of July Pierced the Uptrend Line but has Since Splendidly Recovered

Gold Price Close Today : 1,234.80
Gold Price Close 20-Aug : 1,227.70
Change : 7.10 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 1903.9
Silver Price Close 20-Aug : 1812
Change : 91.90 or 5.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,531.00
Platinum Price Close 20-Aug : 1,514.00
Change : 17.00 or 1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 504.00
Palladium Price Close 20-Aug : 478.00
Change : 26.00 or 5.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.86
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Aug : 67.75
Change : -2.90 or -4.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,108.04
Dow Industrial 20-Aug : 10,213.47
Change : -105.43 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index : 82.940
US Dollar Index 20-Aug : 83.049
Change : -0.11 or -0.1%

Hush! Let the week speak: Gold up seven bucks, stocks down 1%, US dollar index flat, and silver up -- what! 5.1%!

THE DOLLAR INDEX may have bottomed yesterday and today with lows around 82.65. Yet it also made double tops around 83.20. It managed to hold on around 82.90. In the broader view the dollar ought to begin rising again next week if it is, as I have been thinking, in a rally mode. A close below 82 would be lethal to that interpretation. Upside the last high is 83.56, so the dollar needs to pass that point.

STOCKS today tried to erase yesterday's shame, but 'twasn't too convincing. The Dow rose 122.23 to close above Magical 10,000 at 10,108.04. S&P rose 12.43 to close at 1,060.03. These are but the thrashings of the trapped. Stocks will drop more next week, perhaps much more. Please save yourself the heartache and flee stocks. Once they break through Dow 9,700, they will sink like an anchor pitched off the Empire State Building.

The little G$175 (8.466 oz) support that was holding the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (DiG$) in the air gave way last week, and this week the DiGS sank to G$167.09 (8.083 oz). Stocks have definitely begun the next stage of their decline against gold. Ultimate target is G$20.67 (1.000 oz).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES also is about to break through longstanding support at 525 ounces, on its way to an ultimate 32 ounces or less.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped off a cliff this week, beginning at 68.402 and ending at 64.856, down 5%. The story does not stop there. The fall took the ratio to the bottom boundary of the even-sided triangle it has so long been forming. One more step down and the ratio will fall out of that triangle, signalling what should prove a momentous move down. A close below the last low (64.389) will confirm that fall. Observe also that this new close places the ratio below both the 300 and 200 DMAs.

There is more. The 300 DMA had barely crossed above the 200 DMA, not what we want to see in a market in a primary downtrend. A falling ratio will pull that 200 DMA back below the 300 DMA.

I'm not finished. This week places the Ratio below its 50 DMA (66.35) and 17 DMA (66.1), which signals a market moving down.

The SILVER PRICE this week performed spectacularly. It rose 111.4c or 6.4%, from 1792.5c to 1903.9c. Where does that place it? First, it has broken through the downtrend line from the May 2010 high. Second, it is moving up when the seasonal chart says it ought to move up. Third, silver now has opportunity to challenge that May high at 1964c, but more importantly, to exceed the March 2008 high at 2068.5c. Today silver rose 6.1c to 1903.9c, and that backwardation we saw on Wednesday has not returned.

"Bull markets climb a wall of worry," saith the market proverb. A thousand fundamental reasons present themselves to doubt this rally, but technically nothing stands in the way of higher prices.
The little G$175 (8.466 oz) support that was holding the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) in the air gave way last week, and this week the DiGS sank to G$167.09 (8.083 oz). Stocks have definitely begun the next stage of their decline against gold. Ultimate target is G$20.67 (1.000 oz).
The Dow in Silver Ounces also is about to break through longstanding support at 525 ounces, on its way to an ultimate 32 ounces or less.

The GOLD PRICE at the end of July pierced the uptrend line but has since splendidly recovered. It has reached $1,240 resistance but stalled there the past two days, although "stalled" feels like the wrong word after its Olympian performance jumping up on Thursday, Options Expiry, when normally it would be driven down. Today gold dropped 60c to $1,234.80. Next week it must exceed $1,240 or fall back. No equivocating here.

Once through $1,240 gold targets $1,255, the last high. Above that point it takes off into another rally, which in my ignorance looks like "the really big wave" coming. If the past week's strength has arisen solely from the passing attention of traders, then this rally will evaporate. But if it is driven by more powerful and less evanescent forces -- such as fears of sovereign debt defaults, fears of currency defaults, fears of more banking crises -- then it won't fade. This is that wall of worry that gold must climb.

Piffle! It makes no different at all to the long term, for the course is set firmly upward for both silver and gold for the next five years. This week I have been meditating on the thinness of gold and silver supply. Most folks think one can easily pick up the phone and order a million bucks worth of silver and gold, no problem. Ahh, but the market is so thin that when several large folks, or a multitude of small folks, press into the market, there's not enough supply for everybody to get some. Remember fall 2008. Those days of shortages will return. The time to buy silver and gold is before the crisis occurs.

Y'all enjoy your weekend. Argentums et aurum comparanda sunt --

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, August 26, 2010

Gold Gave up $4.10 to Close at $1,235.40, Again, Strong in the Teeth of Options Expiry

Gold Price Close Today : 1235.40
Change : (4.10) or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.978
Change : (0.044) cents or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1536.00
Change : 4.00 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 504.00
Change : 7.00 or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.10
Change : -0.065 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial : 9,985.81
Change : -74.25 or -0.7%

US Dollar Index : 82.90
Change : -0.319 or -0.4%

Options Expiry today did not manage to do much damage after all.

In the teeth of Options Expiry the SILVER PRICE lost only 4.4c to close below 1900 at 1897.8c. Tough. Wiry. Resilient.

Assuming silver presses through 1900c tomorrow, which I do assume, it will move immediately to knock a hole in that 1970-2000c ceiling. Here silver need only avoid doing something stupid, like closing below 1860c. Otherwise a wild rampage lies ahead.

Gold gave up $4.10 to close at $1,235.40, again, strong in the teeth of Options Expiry. The gold price must push clean through $1,240 tomorrow and work toward that last high at $1,255. A close below $1,230 would change the picture.

The US dollar bounced off its 50 DMA (83.18) today and fell back 31.9 basis points to 82.90. That's not encouraging but not deadly, either. Dollar ought to hold at 82.50 anyway, and certainly not fall lower than the 20 DMA at 82. Dollar smells questionable here.

STOCKS left no question what they are doing. Dow dropped below the Magical Mystical 10,000 point. Dow lost 74.25 to close at 9,985.81. S&P lost 8.11 and ended at 1,047.22.

That doesn't nearly tell the tale. Dow muddled around up 40 points until 11:00, when it sprang a leak. By 2:30 the leak had become a flood. It closed only 18 points off the 9,968 low.

Falling through 10,000 will bring painful attention on stocks as investors' morale breaks. Lower prices ahead.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Most Likely Track is for the Gold Price Uptrend to Keep On Rising

Gold Price Close Today : 1240.10
Change : 8.30 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.022
Change : 0.653 cents or 3.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1532.00
Change : 14.00 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 497.00
Change : 10.00 or 2.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.19
Change : -1.866 or -2.8%

Dow Industrial : 10,060.06
Change : 19.61 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index : 83.27
Change : -0.044 or -0.1%


Today neither silver nor gold were bashful about declaring which direction they are headed, but more of that below.

Mark ye well that the dollar's movement had naught to do with silver or gold's rise today. The dollar jigged up and it jigged down, but within the 82.85 - 83.50 range that has held it captive these two days past. Dollar has built an even-sided or perhaps flat-topped triangle that most likely will break out upside.

In this day's trading it dropped a meager 4.4 basis points to trade now at 83.268. The 50 DMA at 83.30 no doubt blocked its way. Higher dollar coming, but it clearly isn't annoying silver and gold at all, or dogging their steps.

Lo, watch and recall! Y'all have never seen a market any phonier than today's Dow. Until 2:30 it remained deep in the red, falling as low as 9,938. But wait! Are those the hooves of the Nice Government Men's cavalry I hear in the distance? What remained down all day suddenly moved to unchanged, and even rose 19.61 for a Dow close at 10,060.06. Whew! At least it didn't close below 10,000. Good save, Nice Government Men, but a tadge corny -- and obvious. S&P 500 closed up 3.46 at 1,055.33. My view is that stocks are beginning a third wave down that will shave off another 15% from here. Stay away from stocks.

The GOLD PRICE closed at $1,240.10, up $8.30. This was a solid gain added to yesterday's rise, and prelude to higher prices. Now the dollar stands flat-footed on $1,240 resistance and it is possible it could dawdle a day or so here, or even fall back a little. However, the most likely track, since gold has already surmounted its July low, is for the uptrend to keep on rising. For me the suspense is ended. I bought today, and will buy more if it rises higher tomorrow. No more waiting.

Beloved SILVER added today that missing ingredient, that one last confirmation to an uptrend: it rose 65.3c to close not only above 1870 resistance, but above 1900c at 1902.2c. I told y'all that very little resistance lay between 1870c and higher prices. Today silver showed y'all how a scalded dog runs: fast. I bought.

(Something funny showed in silver futures settlement prices today. August silver, which ought to close lower than any other month, closed at 1902.2c, yet that was higher than December, withch rose 53.2c to close at 1896c. Technically that is called a "backwardation" when the near by months show a premium to the more distant months. Distant months' prices reflect the cost of carry, and ought to be higher. When they are not higher, it can indicate a severe shortage of physical metal, also called a "short squeeze." I am not calling it that, only observing that technical backwardation today.)

Silver might linger here a day or two to catch its breath, but what difficulties lie above us? Very little resistance, just the June high at 1946c and the May high at 1981c. When silver clears that last price, the only the 2008 high at 2068.5c will remain to block its path.

Yes, yes, 'tis still possible silver and gold might fall back, but most all the odds fall on the side of higher prices.

That said, tomorrow is Options Expiry, so you can expect the Bad Boys to be out in force, trying to work the market down so all those calls they’ve sold above 1800c and $1,200 will expire worthless. No matter what happens, I don't think they can break this market tomorrow, but I watch.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, August 24, 2010

If the Gold Price Closes Above $1235 Stop Waiting and Buy Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 1231.00
Change : 4.10 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.369
Change : 0.386 cents or 2.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1518.00
Change : 8.00 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 487.00
Change : 1.00 or 0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 67.02
Change : -1.210 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial : 10,040.45
Change : -133.96 or -1.3%

US Dollar Index : 83.14
Change : -0.119 or -0.1%

Just about the time you believe you have markets scoped out, they do the opposite of what you expect.

Oh, I don't mean the dollar index or stocks. The dollar index fell a measly 11.9 basis points to 83.137, 0.17%, a meaningless jiggle. Dollar couldn't pierce 83.55, and fell sharply to 82.85, then consolidated. However, remember that yesterday we saw it knocking against its top Bollinger band and its 50 DMA, so there's no surprise or intermediate term trend change here, merely a predictable correction.

And stocks? They fell 133.96, 1.32% to 10,040.45, hovering above the psychologically-magical 10,000 after making a low at 9,991. S&P 500 lost 7.08 to close at 1,051.87. Y'all know that when stocks break that 10,000 mark investors will panic, and panickers sell, so the fall will feed on itself, like a California brush fire. Stay away from stocks.

But silver and gold prices refused to behave as they ought in an Options Expiry week. Options expire on Thursday, but both rose to the top of their trading range: silver rose 38.6c to 1836.9c and gold rose $4.10 to $1,231.00. Perhaps to pull in more suckers?

GOLD was smashed down to $1,210 on the opening and simply refused to stay there. It shrugged that off and flew straight up to $1,235, then leveled out flat around $1,230. 'Twasn't supposed to do that, but then, the market tells me I don't tell the market.

Look objectively at the chart. Tear off the label on the top. What sayeth the chart? It says gold is at the top of the range, and you wait to buy it until it breaks out. You may end up paying a little more, but you won't buy it and watch it drop back to $1,200 at least. I guessing gold will post one more leg down, maybe not to $1,210, but one more down anyway. On the upside, if it closes above $1,235, stop waiting and buy it.

SILVER clearly had a bunch of buy-stop orders sitting at 1800 or 1805c. Low was 1775 just after the open, and then silver popped up like a basketball held under water in a swimming pool, clear to 1843c. It closed near the top of that range at 1836.9c, but recall that 1777c was the 200 day moving average.

Because silver stands at the top of its trading range, I would rather wait for that one more wave down that confirms the downmove is complete. However, if silver trades (not closes!) above 1870c, I would buy it because if it trades above there it will close above there, and very little resistance stands above 1870c. That means, if silver clears that barrier, it will run like a scalded dog.

On this day in 1857 the New York branch of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company failed, precipitating one of the most severe economic crises in US history. Bankers restricted transactions, and panic broke out in stock and financial markets that lasted for several months.

'Twas the same old story we know so well, bust of a boom created by bank overlending. Foreign capital fled the US, grain and cotton prices fell, goods inventories mounted up, and a railroad building bubble burst and lines defaulted on debt. Land bubbles hat had followed the railroad lines also burst.

Worse still, the SS Central America transporting $2 - $4 million in gold from the San Francisco mint, sank in a hurricane on 11 September, sharpening the liquidity crisis. The crisis climaxed on 14 October 1857, Suspension Day, when banking in New York and New England was suspended. In the aftermath economies around the world and in the US contracted.

The Central America wreck was located on 11 September 1987 and the total value of the recovered gold estimated at $100 - $150 million. The discovery wrecked the market for 1857-S double eagles, which until the salvage had been fairly rare, but not afterwards.

Today let's think about egg recalls, and how your rulers parley them into more power for themselves, and worse food for you.

The regulators whine and moan about the health dangers, they need more power, everybody's gonna die or at least be badly disfigured, etc., etc. Wave the bloody shirt of grotesque possibilities. All this helps them pass a new "Food Safety Bill", which will make the world safe for gigantic agribusiness corporations. At the same time it will tighten the screws on, and put out of business, thousands of small, clean farming operations.

Note the blame shifting, essential ingredient of this tactic: the eggs are guilty. Not the factory farming Confinement Animal Feeding Operation (CAFO) technique that crowds 25,000 animals together, or de-beaks and cages chickens so tightly they can barely turn around, and then must needs pound the antibiotics down the chickens' throats to keep them alive in such filthy and crowded conditions. Whoops! All those antibiotics also breed SUPER-salmonella, resistant to almost all antibiotics, as a side benefit riding on your factory farmed eggs.

Meanwhile, your small, local farm selling eggs has none of these problems, because their chickens run in pasture, and do what chickens do, scratching and eating bugs with a little grass as a garnish. Whoa! Could that protein their bodies naturally desire be the reason why yard eggs have yellow yolks that stand up proudly, as against CAFO eggs that slouch with shame, so white are their yolks?

Friends, it's the same with your milk, dairy products, and meat. The job of government regulation is to stifle all competition against the corporations, although they carefully masquerade as protecting you against the health dangers their own methods create.

Is this a great racket, or what?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, August 23, 2010

Look to Buy Gold this Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1226.10
Change : (1.10) or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.925
Change : (0.057) cents or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1510.00
Change : -4.00 or -0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 486.00
Change : 8.00 or 1.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 68.40
Change : 0.156 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial : 10,174.41
Change : -39.21 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 83.12
Change : 0.013 or 0.0%

I've been squinting at the calendar for the last couple of weeks, eying 26 August when options expire. The manipulators like to engage other speculators and dealers who also have an interest in selling silver and gold down. James Turk captured the dynamic in the article at www.fgmr.com/manipulating-the-silver-market.html.

"If someone were manipulating the silver market, you would see exactly
what has actually occurred in silver over the past several days.

"To manipulate the price you would use your buying power and accumulate long positions until you force silver above resistance in the high $18.40s and thereby trigger all the buy-stops sitting there, including the one we placed. You would then sell your long positions into those buy-stops and keep selling until (1) you became short and (2) your selling drove prices lower.

" I have just described exactly what has just taken place in silver. What we have seen is a classic textbook case of market manipulation. We have seen it so many times before in recent years, it is the reason I warned on 18 August: “Let’s see if silver can hold this level, particularly particularly with option expiry coming soon.”

"I expect that we will see the rest of this repetitive pattern of manipulation play out over the next few days until this month’s options expire. I also expect that silver will remain under $18 during this period.

"There may in fact be another bout of selling pressure by the shorts to shake out some more weak-hands. It would give the manipulators an even bigger profit when they buy back on even lower prices the short positions they established on the breakout above $18.40. Consequently, I will not be surprised if the 2-year uptrend line in the following chart is broken this week.

"I don’t think that uptrend line will be broken, but don’t panic if And don’t be distracted from the big picture – both technical and fundamental." Now, think a minute. If manipulators are driving prices down temporarily this week, what should we, as long term silver accumulators, do? Right, take advantage of lower prices to buy.

One more item: a reader asked me to discuss what effect that mid-term elections might have on the silver and gold markets. Answers: None. I have to deliver bad news: the American system -- financial, political, monetary -- is broken beyond repair. Beyond tinkering. Beyond reform. Beyond electing conservatives, liberals, Republicans, Democrats, libertarians, or even Archangels. No election will make a dime's bit of difference until somebody runs on a platform of abolishing the Federal Reserve and cutting off welfare to corporations and banks. Until you see that discussed, stay your course. Nothing will change whoever's elected.

Today's markets:
US DOLLAR INDEX marked time today, rising 1.3 basis points to 83.124. It has reached the top of its Bollinger bands. Those are bands drawn above and below the 20 day simple moving average at two standard deviations. Statistically, in a normal distribution, 68% of the observations will lie within one standard deviation of the average; 95% within 2 standard deviations, and 99.7% within 3 standard deviations. In 12 days the dollar index has moved from the bottom of its Bollinger bands to the top. Also lurking above is the 50 day moving average (83.35). Dollar index will probably push higher before another correction, but 'twill be uphill slogging. Dollar is still headed up, targeting at least 85, and maybe 90.

Today stocks feebly stretched out a finger to touch the 50 DMA (10,302), then fell back on the couch, exhausted and closed near the low. Stocks fell 39.21 to Dow 10,174.41, while S&P500 closed 1,067.36, down 4.32. In my raggedy opinion, stocks are now entering the third leg down of their present decline which will carry to at the very least 10,000, and more likely 9,700 - 9,600. Stop your ears to the sirens and pimps of Wall Street, and sell all stocks.

SILVER's closing price from Friday was wrong, as I suspected. It dropped 33.6c to 1798.2c, and today dropped another 5.7c to 1792.5c. Today's graph was flat, with a high at 1806.1c and a low at 1787c. The 200 DMA stands at 1776c, then we have all those bottoms lined up at 1735c, 1757c, 1722c, 1743c, and 1708c. If silver sees any of those prices, it will happen this week. Buy silver with an eye to Options Expiry on Thursday, August 26. That is, if you haven't bought before Thursday, look to do so on Thursday. Magic number is 1800c because loads of call options are there and above.

GOLD has now twice, Friday and today, made lows at $1,222. Today it closed down $1.10 at $1,226.10. Before the week's out look for gold to drop to $1,218 or $1,210. Only a close above $1,235 would change that outlook. Look to buy gold this week.

Will trade for silver or gold: My daughter needs a vehicle, but it must be tough enough to stand up to our gravel roads and big enough to seat six, namely, her, her husband, and her four boys. She's thinking of a Toyota Land Cruiser or an Isuzu, and will spend around $5,000, maybe a bit more. I have learned that y'all, my readers, can answer every question in the world, so I know somebody has an answer for this one. Please contact Liberty Bain at libert1n1@yahoo.com. Note that she would not be interested in anything that needs major resurrection work, laying on of hands, or a new body.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, August 20, 2010

The Gold Price Did Nothing Worse Than Undergo An Expected Correction Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1,227.70
Gold Price Close 13-Aug : 1,213.50
Change : 14.20 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 1812
Silver Price Close 13-Aug : 1810
Change : 2.00 or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,514.00
Platinum Price Close 13-Aug : 1,522.00
Change : -8.00 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 478.00
Palladium Price Close 13-Aug : 475.00
Change : 3.00 or 0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 67.75
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Aug : 67.04
Change : 0.71 or 1.1%

Dow Industrial : 10,213.47
Dow Industrial 13-Aug : 10,303.15
Change : -89.68 or -0.9%

US Dollar Index : 83.049
US Dollar Index 13-Aug : 82.927
Change : 0.12 or 0.1%

Well, look at that! After all the travail and trouble silver and gold prices underwent this week, yet they close the week in positive territory -- not much positive, but positive still. Lo, the dollar turned up also, but stocks barely held on. White metals were bewildered, platinum up and palladium down.

The US DOLLAR INDEX certified its mood today with a 56.3 basis point (0.72%) jump to trade now at 83.049. That certainly establishes the floor at 81.90 - 82, and argues clamourously that the dollar intends to move higher. Above, 83.5 offers weak resistance, but at only 85 an real argument will start. If, as this seems, it is a new rallying phase, then the dollar will pass above the last high (88.5) to 90 or higher. That outlook does not carry the gloom for silver and gold prices that it might have five years ago. A strong dollar may slow gold some, but not much.

STOCKS experienced a down week. Five day chart shows a double top Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a 144 point slide on Thursday, another smaller slide today, and lethargy. Bigger and more dramatic drops lurk in the near future.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS fell through G$175 (8.466 oz) support this week and closed today at G$171.97 (8.319 oz). The DiG$ has now positioned itself for a fall off a cliff. Once it passes that last low at G$162.22 (7.847 oz) gravity will hug the DiG$ to her breast ever more tightly. Stocks are about to become a lot cheaper relative to gold.

I was verging on giving up on silver this week, but as painful as today proved, it proved hopeful as well. Silver was beaten down to 1781c -- whew! Yet it was a spike bottom. Fall from 1825 to 1780c is 45c, but silver clawed back all but 19.8c of that, closing Comex at 1812 (August futures). October futures, the more active month, closed 1798c, down 36.4c. This is one of those occasions I look at those stats and shake my head, suspecting a roach must have fallen into somebody's keyboard. All right, let's deal with it as the worst case, as silver below 1800c. It fell to well-established resistance and bounced off. Silver's worst face here is the long rounding curve of lower highs and higher lows since the February 1468c low. What does that long triangle mean? I can see it as a big, flat-topped rising triangle with the top boundary from 1945 (Dec. 09) to 1981c (May 2010) and the bottom rising from 1468c (Feb 2010) to today. Wow, that's shakey, but then, this is August, which often is the month I spend worrying whether metals will ever recover or not. If it is a flat-topped rising triangle, then higher prices will come.

Silver remains in the same dilemma: it must clear 1860c to rally, then burst through the old high at 2068.5c to catch up to gold. As long as silver clings above 1750c here, it will stay in the game. A drop through 1700c [sic] will take a good while to heal.

I keep reading folks on the internet who scream "Manipulation!" at every silver price fall. Maybe, but maybe not. Even if the Nice Government Men and their yellow cur, egg-sucking running dogs in the bullion banks are manipulating silver, the rising bull trend ought to express itself and defeat them. Still, the logic of the denouncers is impeccable. If you want to wound gold, strike silver because it's a smaller market and your bullets go further. To mix a metaphor or two.

The GOLD PRICE did nothing worse than undergo an expected correction today, dropping to a low of $1,222.15 but closing above $1,225 support on Comex. Settlement was $1,227.70, down 6.10. After six up days, who can carp about one down day? On a five-day chart that $1,225 looks significant, so next week gold must stay above that. A close below that lets loose all sorts of harpies, but gold and silver aren't quite in synch here. Remember that gold has done something silver has not done sofar in this upmove. It has closed above its last two (2) highs and made steady progress. Looking at gold, standing above its 200, 50, and 20 day moving averages, on an unbroken uptrend, I have to call for higher prices next week. Silver may have more gump work to do.

Back off, now, and look at the horizon. Long term silver and gold remain in a primary uptrend or bull market that should last at least another five years. Wait patiently for silver to makes itself plainer, then buy either on a fall or on a breakout above 1860c. Buy gold on any retracement.

On this day in 1741 Alaska was found by Danish navigator Vitus Jonus Bering. No one has ever successfully explained how Alaska got lost in the first place.

On this day in 1930 Philo Farnsworth (I'm dead serious) patented a television system. On this day also in 1930 the first demonstration telecast of home TV in the US was received in New York City. Boy, there's one invention you wish had died a-borning.

On this day in 1964 President Lyndon "Landslide" Johnson signed a nearly $1 billion bill declaring War on Poverty. A few years later, Poverty won. Not generally known is that Pres. Johnson was one of our few presidents who could resurrect the dead. Every election graveyards all over Texas were emptied out as the residents ran to the polls to vote for Lyndon.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, August 19, 2010

The Gold Price Still Has Hurdles at $1,240 and $1,255

Gold Price Close Today : 1233.40
Change : 3.70 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.318
Change : (0.072) cents or -0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1524.00
Change : -10.10 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 483.00
Change : -8.85 or -1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 67.33
Change : 0.465 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial : 10,271.21
Change : -144.33 or -1.4%

US Dollar Index : 82.47
Change : 0.168 or 0.2%

The GOLD PRICE rose today and the silver price fell slightly, but the whole day felt weasely -- sickly and unenthusiastic. Yes, yes, the gold price bested $1,230 resistance by rising $3.70 to $1,233.40, but it was stopped cold at $1,237. On a rise like this it ought to show greater exuberance. The daily chart makes me suspect that today marked a top in a small wave up, and that gold sank back exhausted. If that's true, tomorrow it will move toward $1,218. Above us still stand the hurdles at $1,240 and $1,255.

The SILVER PRICE also makes little sense today. First, it sank 7.2c to 1831.8c while the gold price rose, never an optimistic sign. It started out well with a rise to 1855c, but by 11:30 was at 1820c, nearly as low as yesterday's low. Off that low silver climbed but to 1834, then vibrated the rest of the day from 1834 - 1825c. This has the feel of a rounding top. Silver needs to pull out and surge above 1860c, or the wear of this back and forth will send it lower for another dunking.

I love it! I love it! The whole world is stark, staring mad as a hatter, and getting madder all the time! Today Standard and Poor issued a report by their economic "egg-spurts" that said "The US can avoid deflation if the Federal Reserve moves quickly and decisively to expand the money supply." This is Keynesian stupidity on steroids and growth hormones. Where do you start in correcting such a monster? Their definition of "deflation" is falling prices, not the correct "decrease in money supply." Their "cure" is like giving a pneumonia victim a cocktail of cholera germs, with a side of Bubonic plague. Ahh, but my friends, this is what we will get, because this is the same old media operating blindly or willfully for the Federal Reserve in managing inflation expectations. When you have to inflate the money supply by trillions and trillions, you also must have some air cover to prevent all the booboisie from catching on, and what works better than a deflation scare? Because I can still laugh, I need not weep.

Today stocks -- scared, no doubt by mythical deflation, or, alternatively, sinking beneath a killing load of debt and malinvestment -- sank by 144.33 points or 1.39% to Dow 10,271.21. Actually, that wasn't too bad, considering that at one point it was down 200 points. S&P fell 1.69% or 18.53 points to 1,075.63. I've been thinking about stocks today and don't see how they can avoid sinking lower than 6,450 before they bottom. Meaningfully lower. Stay out of stocks.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, buoyed, no doubt, by deflation fears, rose 0.22%, 16.8 basis points to 82.465. Significant is not the size of the rise, only that it rose. Five day chart is very choppy, but there are V-bottoms at 82 both Tuesday and today, with a lower 81.90 low yesterday -- in other words, something like an upside-down head and shoulders which should mark the end of the correction and beginning of a rise. Next target is 85.

By now y'all know I seldom get announcements right the first time round, and the Bodacious Hoedown Announcement was no exception. Add this: (1) Please R.S.V.P. by email to or call (888) 218-9226. Otherwise, we won't know how many to cook for. (2) Primitive (and I do mean "primitive") camping will be available Saturday night for those brave souls who desire it.
Here's an investment recommendation you won't hear often: buy a milch cow or goat. Sounds silly? Think again. A milch animal yields delicious milk daily which you can drink, pour over cereal, or culture for yogurt, clabber, kefir, cottage cheese, or other cheese. If you have digestive problems or food allergies, raw milk, especially raw goat's milk, will probably help. And, if you have children, you can teach them diligence, independence, and responsibility milking that animal and processing the milk. Yeah, y'all think I'm crazy, but only if you have not yet experienced the joys of raw milk. This is the sort of stock investment I can wholeheartedly recommend. I like the LaMancha and Nubian goats that give very mild milk -- stay away from the Toggenbergs unless you like the flavour of goat. No cow can compare to the cream-abounding Jersey or Guernsey, and eschew Holsteins, they give troublesome type A1 milk.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Only a Gold Price Close Below $1,210 Could Defeat This Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1229.70
Change : 3.10 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.390
Change : (0.196) cents or -1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1534.10
Change : 10.10 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 491.85
Change : 11.85 or 2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 66.87
Change : 0.872 or 1.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,415.57
Change : 9.69 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 82.23
Change : 0.014 or 0.0%

The GOLD PRICE kept on slogging and hammering toward $1,230 resistance, closing up $3.10 at $1,229.70, almost past the blockers. It is now only a matter of time until the gold price pierces that veil, since gold has already established a new uptrend by closing above the last (July) low. Only a gold price close below $1,210.00 could defeat this rally.

Nobody likes to hear "I told you so" but today I have to say, "I told y'all so." Yesterday I said the SILVER PRICE must either burst through $18.60 or fall back -- no sideways option. The silver price fell back to an $18.15 low, but since that completed the short correction, it then reversed its way back to $18.39.

Behold the disagreement between SILVER and GOLD PRICES, gold up, silver down. Both markets are confused and bewildered as they try to force a passage through stiff resistance at $1,230 and $18.60
.
What meaneth this bafflement? On the dark side, it could mean that demand for silver and gold are faltering and further downside, even sharper downside, lurks ahead. On the bright side, it might be no more than the pangs and struggles of beating strong resistance.

Always draw to the hand with the greatest odds. Odds are an uptrend in force will continue in force. Also, silver and gold prices are in a primary uptrend (bull market) and bull markets more than half the time resolves such impasses by moving up.

Today saw the US dollar index flattening out its falling trajectory and curving up. It fell today only 1.4 basis points, and now is trading at 82.25. Low appeared at 81.912, so as far as I can tell the correction was completed today and support around 82 successfully defended. 'Twasn't quite a key reversal (break to new low with higher close for the day) but still revealed strength by closing 31 basis points higher than the low. Buck is headed higher, meseemeth.

The DOW gained a measly 9.69 points to close at 10,415.54, S&P500 rose to 1,094.16. No big shakes to this rally, and at 10,600 it ought to run slap out of gas, like the Wehrmacht at the Battle of the Bulge.

A symptom of the struggle raging between stocks and gold is seen in the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS. Gold edges up, stocks edge up, the DiG$ remains around G$175 (8.466 oz). Breaking that level will be followed by lethal and blitz-fast downside.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, August 17, 2010

The Gold Price is Clearly Pushing Its Way Through $1,230 Resistance

Gold Price Close Today : 1226.40
Change : 1.90 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.586
Change : 0.168 cents or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1546.00
Change : 22.00 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 499.00
Change : 19.00 or 4.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.99
Change : -0.499 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial : 10,406.85
Change : 103.84 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index : 82.23
Change : -0.22 or -0.3%


GOLD and SILVER PRICES spake today with forked tongues. The GOLD PRICE stalled and gained only $1.90, closing Comex at $1,226.40. The SILVER PRICE, on the other hand, bumped slap up against the $18.60 ceiling and wound up on Comex at $18.586, up a healthy 16.8c.

They sang out of tune in the sense that silver gained more than gold. However, they sang in tune in that both have now climbed right smack up to strong resistance. Observe closely that gold's closes yesterday and today led to a higher high than the last high, plus took the gold price above its 50 DMA ($1,210.62). The gold price is clearly pushing its way through $1,230 resistance. (Today's high came at $1,228.25.) All this is constructive, but needs to break out through $1,230.

The SILVER PRICE yesterday also climbed over its 50 DMA (1823c) and extended its rally today. High was 1859.1c. Now only two outcomes are possible, and that does not include moving sideways: either silver will back off before it makes another rush at 1860c, or it will break through 1860c tomorrow. Once silver does o'erleap that wall, it will shoot for 1900c and higher.

After six down days in a row and a 500 point fall, STOCKS rallied today, not much to anybody's surprise, I hope. The Dow gained 103.84 to 10,405.85 and the S&P500 added 13.16 to 1,092.54. This rally carries the Dow up to its 200 day moving average (10,445.27), a common target for bear market rallies. Observe that this rally came after the Dow had pierced its 50 DMA at 10,285, also predictable. This rally might carry as high as as 10,500, maybe 10,600, before it dwindles and succumbs yet again to gravity. Stay out of Stocks.

THE US DOLLAR INDEX remains in a correction from its gigantic 165 basis point jump off the bottom. Low today was 82.012, which ought to mark the bottom of it. Awww, it might kiss off the 20 DMA at 81.82, but can't drop lower than that safely.

For nine years on Labour Day my family hosted a big party we called the Most Bodacious Hoedown, here on the farm, complete with War Between the States band and period dances. Idea was to give people a chance to look over farm life and enjoy a great time with their families. Then in 2008 Susan had heart surgery on Labour Day weekend and my children didn't think it would be such a tasteful idea to party when their mother was passing through surgery. Then in 2009 they were just too lazy to do it, because it's so much work, but this year they want to hold a Hoedown on a much reduced basis. So, I promised them that I would e-mail all y'all the announcement, which begins below: MOST BODACIOUS HOEDOWN 4 September 2010, 1:00 p.m. till 10:00 p.m. Watercress Farm (Top of the World Farm) 842 Waterloo Road, Westpoint, Tennessee 38486 (between Lawrenceburg and Waynesboro, Tennessee) Direct inquiries to Justin Sanders, (888) 218-9226 ADMISSION: $4 per person, children 4 and under free. If you are carrying a stringed instrument or harmonica or spoons and can prove to the satisfaction of the man at the gate that you really can play it, however well, you will gain free admission. Yes, there will be groups of musicians in impromptu jams. FOOD: Barbecue meal (our own pastured pork) with all trimmings served at 6:30 for $9.00/plate, drink, and dessert. DANCE: Old timey Dance at 8:00 p.m. with caller. Don't worry if you
can't dance, we'll show you how. GAMES and ACTIVITIES for the whole family:
Dunking booth. Yes, you can dunk The Moneychanger, Franklin Sanders.
Rock Toss
Egg Toss (not mixed with Rock Toss)
Pony Rides
Tug-O-War Across the Creek
Toilet Paper Mommies
Mini-Bike for adults FREE FOR ALL:
Checkers
Trading Card
Corn Bag Toss
Horse Shoes
Scavenger Hunt [END}

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, August 16, 2010

This Sort of Progress Confirms That The Gold Price is Moving Up

Gold Price Close Today : 1224.90
Change : 10.00 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.418
Change : 0.321 cents or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1524.00
Change : 2.00 or 0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 480.00
Change : 5.00 or 1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 66.51
Change : -0.627 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial : 10,270.91
Change : -32.24 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index : 82.51
Change : -0.309 or -0.4%

This will be a short commentary, because I have to make a short trip. Still, I didn't want to remain silent, considering that silver and gold seem to be fulfilling my expectations for higher prices.

Gold pierced $1,215 resistance, then leapt to the next blockade at $1,225, up ten bucks today. This sort of progress confirms that gold is moving up, not just diddling and fiddling sideways. Next step is $1,230, then $1,240, then $1,255.8, the last high. But bear in mind that a move like this cannot stagger and stumble. It may pause to breathe a day or two, but it's forward motion must not be broken badly.

SILVER speaketh yet out of both sides of her mouth, because she hath not cleared 1860c resistance. A close today up 32.1 cents at 1841.8c is a tidy beginning, but still 'taint above 1860c. Gold/Silver ratio was also trimmed down, another favourable milestone. Ever short vulture in the world will be roosted at 1860c, waiting to sell silver, but if this move is real, after a bit of jostling, silver will shoot through that mark. If it reaches it and falls back to 1800c, you know silver is still dribbling, not shooting.

US DOLLAR INDEX dropped today 30.9 basis points to 82.506. Uptrend is not affected unless it drops below 82. Higher dollar coming.

STOCKS are melting away day by day. Dow dropped another 32.24 points today to close at 10,270.91. S&P500 trailed along, down 2.92 to 1,076.33.
Unless contradicted by big falls, silver and gold are clearly in a rally.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, August 13, 2010

Longer Term Gold Remains on Track for Higher Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1,213.50
Gold Price Close 6-Aug : 1,203.30
Change : 10.20 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 1810
Silver Price Close 6-Aug : 1845.9
Change : -35.90 or -1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,522.00
Platinum Price Close 6-Aug : 1,570.90
Change : -48.90 or -3.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 475.00
Palladium Price Close 6-Aug : 489.75
Change : -14.75 or -3.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 67.04
Gold Silver Ratio 6-Aug : 65.19
Change : 1.86 or 2.8%

Dow Industrial : 10,303.15
Dow Industrial 6-Aug : 10,653.56
Change : -350.41 or -3.3%

US Dollar Index : 82.927
US Dollar Index 6-Aug : 80.351
Change : 2.58 or 3.2%

Rough week for SILVER and GOLD PRICES, but rougher still for stocks, and a re-birth for the US Dollar.

The US DOLLAR hit its 200 day moving average and caught, swung round like a bull gibbon on a limb, and turned up. On Wednesday it rose a gargantuan 165 basis points to close at 82.457. The dollar spent the rest of the week making good its gains. Some time next week it may snooze and correct, but its intermediate trend has clearly turned up, as it stands above its 200 DMA (80.83) and 20 DMA (81.82). Since its bottom at 70.70 in March 2008, the dollar has made a series of higher lows and higher highs, with the exception of the last high in June. Now it has completed a 60% correction of the November 2009 to June 2010 correction caught on its 200 week moving average, and turned up like ready-to-eat catfish in boiling lard (floats up when done). The dollar is headed to 90 or higher, unless it scratches all that with a close below 80.

What is the chart telling us? That no matter what kind of scurvy, mangy dog the US dollar may be, the Euro, Yen, pound, and Yuan are scurvier and mangier still. Will a rising dollar stymie silver and gold? Nope. Certainly hasn't so far. Same day the dollar rose 165 basis points the stock market fell 265.42 points while gold added $1.30. Oh, a rising dollar may slow silver and gold down, but stop them? Hardly, not as long as Bouncin' Ben Bernanke and Bingo Obama are in charge, because spend and print they will.

That rising wedge in the DOW and S&P500 had been warning that a downside plunge awaited, and it struck this week. After the Fed Open Market Committee's announcement on Tuesday stocks fell 58.88, but were already struggling to keep a nose above 10,650. Wednesday somebody threw an anvil to the Dow, and it sank 265.42 points. Now the Dow's trend is firmly down, with support around 8900, then again around 8,100, then 6,500. If you are holding stocks, sell while you still can.

The difference between the GOLD PRICE and the Dow appears most sharply in the chart for the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$). Chart is identical to the Dow in Gold Ounces, except it's calibrated differently because a statutory "dollar" of gold equals 0.048375 troy ounce. This week the DiG$ collapsed fro G$184.19 (8.910 oz) to GS175.51 (8.49 OZ). THE The DiG$ stands at its 50 day moving average (G$175.41) but below its 200 DMA (G$187.54), which it lately revisited. Intermediate target lies somewhere below the 2009 low at G$145.00 (6.362 oz). Ultimate target is G$20.67 or one ounce of gold to buy the whole Dow.

From last Friday's heights the SILVER PRICE fell down to $17.80 on Wednesday, no doubt pulled down with stocks. However, that didn't last and the silver price began immediately working its way back up. Its performance yesterday and today (closed on Comex at 1810c up 4.7c) left me less than chest-beating, hair-pulling enthusiastic. Adding to that vexation, the Gold/Silver ratio peeked back above 67, although still within the big even-sided triangle.

Silver has been trapped beneath $18.60, and nothing exciting will happen until the silver price clears that mark. Above that hangs $20.00, the genuinely tough resistance. Once the silver price climbs over that, get out of the way. Until then, we will have to listen to bears croaking and whining that the bull market is over. Ignore them. Switch on some Mozart and drown them out.

From beneath the silver price must hold $17.00. I believe it has turned up. Falling stocks will keep dragging on silver.

With all the turmoil and back and forth, gold has merely bumped into the uptrend line from the November 2008 bottom. This week gold performed well, dropping back and handily defending $1,195 support and shooting up yesterday to $1,215. But today disappointed, with gold down $1.00 to $1,213.50. I don't like that. At the end of the week that selling resistance at $1,215 should not have prevailed.

But longer term gold remains on track for higher prices. Big resistance to beat now is $1,215 - 1,218, then $1,230, then $1,257, the last all-time high. Be patient, and continue to accumulate gold and silver.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentums et aurum comparanda sunt --
-- Silver and gold must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, August 12, 2010

Without Doubt Gold and Silver are Spreading their Wings.

Gold Price Close Today : 1214.50
Change : 17.00 or 1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.053
Change : 0.163 cents or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1533.00
Change : 15.00 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 472.00
Change : 5.00 or 1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 67.27
Change : 0.337 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 10,319.95
Change : -58.88 or -0.6%

US Dollar Index : 82.61
Change : 0.323 or 0.4%


Looky, looky! The US DOLLAR INDEX raised the ante again today, climbing 32.3 basis points after yesterday's huge 165 bps gain. Trading now at 82.613. My friend Bob the Technical Genius called today to impress upon my mind the picture that I have been suspecting: the US dollar is headed much higher.

That's not as nuts as it sounds. Maybe the chart is telling us that the yen and Euro will be flying apart. But will a rising dollar hurt silver and gold? No, a decoupling has begun and is unrolling, a decoupling that is making silver and gold function as alternative currencies to all the bogus fiat currencies. And after today in silver and gold? Well, I'll speak to that below.

STOCKS paused today as they hit a ledge on the face of that cliff they fell off of yesterday. Owch! They still lost 58.88 to close at 10,319.95, and S&P500 lost 5.86 to end at 1,083.61. Don't take my word for the bear market in stocks. Get a ten year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, pin it up on the wall, then step back eight feet. Now, look at it: which way is it headed, consistently? Right: down. That's what a primary trend looks like, and it lasts 15 to 20 years. So while all the stock pimps on Wall Street and in the financial media and in Washington tell you it's all right for the long term, just you remember those angler fish in the deep ocean. They have a tongue with a luminescent appendix, a jiggler, and when they're hungry they stick out that tongue and jiggle it in the dark. When the unwary fish approach to partake of what they believe is a free and shiny lunch, they become lunch themselves. Don't believe those jiggling tongues, unless you aspire to become lunch, too.

The GOLD PRICE hit that $1,205 resistance immediately after opening at $1,199, cleared $1,210, and in ten minutes stood at $1,215, then traded tightly sidewise the rest of the day, from $1,212 to $1,215. Comex gold closed up $17.00 [sic] at $1,214.50. To keep up the advance, gold tomorrow must close above $1,218, then above $1,225-$1,232. The gold price now has climbed above all its moving averages, so the momentum is up. Overbought/Oversold indicators show the gold price has plenty more room to climb.

The SILVER PRICE also climbed above psychological resistance at 1800c to end its day on Comex up 16.3c to 1805.3c. In the aftermarket its trading higher at 1810c.

SILVER did not show gold's drama today, but merely rose steadily and stayed above 1800c all day. Silver needs to make up that difference. Some resistance lurks at 1810, but chiefly at 1840 to 1860c. Until silver crosses that mark, nobody will believe it has shed its cocoon and become a mighty butterfly. Fact is, that 2000c mark above is the real goal.

But both metals put in a good performance the last two days. It wasn't exactly, but has the feel of a key reversal, a unquestionable turnaround. I don't know how much longer silver and gold will tarry before flying away, but without doubt silver are gold are spreading their wings.

Wait no longer to buy. Buy more on a silver close above 1860c.
On this date in 1896 gold was discovered on the Klondike River at Dawson.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, August 11, 2010

The Gold Price May Gag a Bit On a Stronger Dollar, But Don't Look For Significantly Lower Gold Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1197.50
Change : 1.30 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.890
Change : (0.256) cents or -1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1518.00
Change : -25.60 or -1.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 467.00
Change : -8.70 or -1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 66.94
Change : 1.016 or 1.5%

Dow Industrial : 10,378.83
Change : -265.42 or -2.5%

US Dollar Index : 82.46
Change : 1.658 or 2.1%


Forget about waiting for stocks to break the bottom boundary of that wedge. They smashed right through it like a meteor through a glass roof.

Bad economic news out of China last night started stocks down worldwide. By the way, all the hype you hear about China being the new world economic leader, etc., etc., will eventually be exposed as pure-D, 100% hogwash. HUGE malinvestment in the Chinese economy will take years to work off, not to mention bad debts in state-owned banks. But think about the stupid presupposition of the claims of looming Chinese economic supremacy: a communist government can direct an efficient economy? Sure, when hogs fly and play violins. If the 20th century proved any one thing beyond all doubt, it is that socialism and communism can produce on one economic output with consistency: shortages.

Anyhow, piling on that bad news today that China is not, after all, about to drive a global economic recovery, the US Federal Reserve announces it is going to buy more US Treasury bonds directly. This amounts to monetizing US government debt, or, in layman's terms, cranking up the printing presses.

Yet it's a fool who looks for logic in the heart of a market, because contradictory effects materialized. The stock market, already poised to drop out of the bomb-bay into the ocean beneath, dropped a colossal 265.42 points to close the Dow at 10,378.83. S&P fell 31.59 to 1,089.47.

Meanwhile, the US DOLLAR INDEX rose a stupendous 165.8 basis points to 82.457, the largest one day jump since fall 2008. Let's see . . . The Fed announces it will begin inflating in earnest, and the Dollar CLIMBS two percent and the Euro falls 2.13%. Sure, yeah, okay, that makes sense. Right.

But we had been expecting the dollar to rise anyway. Today it cleared the 20 DMA (81.79) and smashed through 82 resistance. Clearly, the dollar will move higher for a time.

I didn't say it, but the Dow closed below its 200 DMA (10,436) and its 20 DMA (10,462). Stocks are now virtually certain to keep falling to 10,000, then 9,600, then lower. Stay away, stay away.

Today's dollar rise clouded the silver and gold markets, but not at all fatally. The GOLD PRICE closed on Comex at 1,197.50, up, yes, up $1.30 to $1,197.50, well above its 20 DMA ($1,188.55) but still below that troublesome 50 DMA ($1,210.53). Today did no damage at all to gold's uptrend. Yes, the gold price may gag a bit on a stronger dollar, but don't look for significantly lower gold prices.

The SILVER PRICE dropped 25.6c on Comex to close at 1789c. Not good, as it leaves silver below its 50 DMA (1821c) and 20 DMA (1804c), but a little worse is an MACD that turned down. 200 DMA lies at 1770c, and we may see that tomorrow.

But is silver broken? Will it return to 1450c? Will gold drop to $1,050? To believe that you must believe that gold is wallowing in a major correction, as in the correction of Fall 2008, but I just can't get that out of the chart. The recent $1,257 high close was not a long term top, just an intermediate top in the midst of a much longer upthrust. With markets anything is possible, but unless gold were to drop below $1,140, those lower prices just aren't possible.

Always more volatile silver is not quite in synch with gold, but clearly the goal of this bull market, the great barrier to breach, is that resistance around 2000c. Yes, it will worry everybody to death, because that's the job of bull markets, to climb a wall of worry, but at last it will conquer 2000c. Bigger worry right now is that silver remains above 1700c. Unless it drops below that, the primary trend is untouched.

On this day in 1860 the nation's first successful silver mine began operating near Virginia City, Nevada.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Appears to me the Gold Price has Found its Feet and Should Rise Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1196.20
Change : (4.50) or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.146
Change : (0.083) cents or -0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1543.60
Change : -1.10 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 475.70
Change : -1.80 or -0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.92
Change : 0.053 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial : 10,644.25
Change : -54.50 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index : 8.85
Change : 0.135 or 1.5%

GOLD trading today had an artificial and contrived feel to it. Okay, don't blame it on the Nice Government Men. Let's look at it another way. The little peak Friday at $1,210 was corrected back to $1,195 support today. My data says that the gold price touched $1,190.78 at its low, but I never saw that. By the daily chart it happened from 8:00 to 10:00, then gold moved up in a clear five wave pattern with a screaming rise from $1,197 to $1,207 in about ten minutes. Balance of the day it backed off a bit, but never lower than 1202. Also, it touched off $1,202 twice, validating that support. Appears to me the gold price has found its feet and should rise tomorrow.

SILVER posted today's low at 17.95about 8:30 a.m. then spent the day rising in a clear pattern.

More paint work on the tape: Today silver closed down 8.3c at 1814.6c and gold closed at $1,196.20, down 4.50. These were the Comex closes. In the after market gold jumped to $1,204.50 and silver to 1833.5c. Silly, just silly, it is so bogus.
Bottom line is that silver and gold have completed a correction and now will begin rising again. The longer you wait, the more they will cost.

STOCKS today vindicated my forecast weakness when they fell to the bottom boundary of their upward wedge formation. Argghh! The upward wedge foretells a downside breakdown, but today's move did not violate that bottom boundary -- not enough for a breakdown. So we may see another spike up, but the time bomb is already ticking, never fear. Stay away from stocks, sell any you still own.

US DOLLAR INDEX rallied today from the get-go, and by 10:30 had climbed to 81.53 from yesterday's 80.70. About then the world woke up and began selling the dollar. It sank to about 81.25 and suddenly somebody pulled the plug --bang. Down it came to 80.65 in about 10 minutes, but recovered enough to trade now at 80.846, up 13.5 basis points from yesterday.

There's more: the Dollar's MACD barely turned up today. It's trading at the bottom of its Bollinger Band. The dollar is trying to bottom, trying, trying. As long as it holds 80, it will still be in that process.

SPECIAL OFFER:
Doing an inventory I found two items I rarely sell because of their high premiums, namely, 1/10 Maple Leaves and 1/10 American Eagles. I want to sell them, so will make this deal. I will sell either for $137.00 each, but won't mix them. In other words, you have to buy all 1/10 Maples or all 1/10 American Eagles. To mix them, you'll have to buy a lot of one and a lot of the other.

Minimum order is a lot of Twenty (20) pieces, or 20 x $137 = $2,740. Spot gold basis is $1,204.20.

You may order more than 20 pieces of either, but only in increments of ten (10), so I will sell you 20 or 30, or 50, but not 24 or 37.

Add $25.00 per order for shipping.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. Last person to order will get an odd number because I have 99 ea. 1/10 Maple Leaves and 132 ea. 1/10 American Eagles.

Ordering Instructions:
1. You may order by e-mail only to franklin@the-moneychanger.com .
Your email MUST include your complete name, address, and phone number please mention you saw this offer on goldprice.org. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States.
2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.
3. "First-come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by email.
4. If your order is filled , we will email you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, you order was not filled.
5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.
6. We will allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, August 09, 2010

Expect Frustrating Lack of Direction From Silver and Gold Prices, Because it is August

Gold Price Close Today : 1200.70
Change : (2.70) or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.229
Change : (0.230) cents or -1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1544.70
Change : -28.00 or -1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 477.50
Change : -20.55 or -4.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.87
Change : 0.674 or 1.0%

Dow Industrial : 10,698.75
Change : 45.19 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.70
Change : 0.34 or 0.4%


Today's quotation:
"{P]erpetuities and monopolies are contrary to the genius of a free state, and shall not be allowed." Tennessee Constitution, Art. I, Section 22. So, can somebody explain to me about the Federal Reserve and why it is permitted to operate in Tennessee?

TODAY'S MARKETS
Here I am, still trying to parse the US DOLLAR INDEX. Right now it's trading at 80.701, up 34.2 basis points. On the five day chart Friday shows a spike bottom to 80.10. Today the dollar traded above 80.40 almost all day. RSI is as overvalued as a $5 gift card at WalMart, and the MACD histogram has bullishly diverged from price action, although the MACD has not quite turned up. Dollar's 200 day moving average is at 80.68, right about where it now stands. What's at stake? If the dollar can't turn around here it risks falling to 74.25.

STOCKS are making that one last spike upward I mentioned on Friday. However, it ain't so great. High was 10,719.95 for the Dow, but it couldn't close above 10,700 resistance, so ended at 10,698.75, up 45.19. S&P 500 closed at 1,127.78, up 6.14. I count today as very weak action. Why? Because once the Dow cleared that 10,700 resistance, it ought to have run. Now it might come back tomorrow and make another try, but this is week. Please stay away from stocks.

Mystery forces slapped the SILVER PRICE around again today. From the opening the weight of selling over- powered buying, driving silver back, back, back from 1855 cents to 1824c at 10:00 a.m. Silver rallied to 1835c, then fell to a low of 1821c at 1:30. It's tough to find a pattern when price action chops back and forth as it has the last few days, but the fact remains that buyers outweighed sellers enough to lift silver from 1735c on 27 July to over 1820c today. Trend is still up, with that July low most likely the bottom. To confirm that forecast, silver should not close below 1800c, and sometime this week ought to make another assault on 1860c.

Today silver closed at 1822.9c, down 23c.

Like silver, the GOLD PRICE has knocked twice now on overhead resistance at $1,210, but the door hasn't opened. Gold will have to kick it down. Gold backed off today $2.70 to close at $1,200.70, hanging by a fingernail 70c above $1,200. Awww, I don't think $1,200 has more than cosmetic importance here. The real support is at $1,195. Still, 'twere better if gold does not dip below $1,200. Maybe gold has done penance enough now for its rise from the $1,155.90 low on 27 July. But we ought to expect frustrating lack of direction from silver and gold, because it is August, traditionally a tepid season in metals, with irritating and unpredictable sideways trading.

Had to do some dirt work with our tractor today, clearing a place for a stone wall a friend is building for us. I'm about as good with a front end loader as I am with ballet shoes, but it was fun. Rained a frog-strangler just as I finished, so I had an ironclad excuse to stand on the front porch and smell the rain and eat a perfect peach off our tree. Later I rode back along Robinson Branch Road, overhung with trees and breathing the magical perfume of Tennessee woods. I may have a hard time coming back into the office tomorrow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, August 06, 2010

Stop Waiting to Buy Gold - The Lows Have Been Posted

Gold Price Close Today : 1,203.30
Gold Price Close 30-Jul : 1,181.70
Change : 21.60 or 1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 1845.9
Silver Price Close 30-Jul : 1798.7
Change : 47.20 or 2.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,570.90
Platinum Price Close 30-Jul : 1,573.70
Change : -2.80 or -0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 489.75
Palladium Price Close 30-Jul : 497.50
Change : -7.75 or -1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.19
Gold Silver Ratio 30-Jul : 65.70
Change : -0.51 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial : 10,653.56
Dow Industrial 30-Jul : 10,465.94
Change : 187.62 or 1.8%

US Dollar Index : 80.351
US Dollar Index 30-Jul : 81.537
Change : -1.19 or -1.5%

Die Woche luegt nicht. The week doesn't lie. This week silver and gold prices rose strongly, the white metals lost minutely, stocks rose, and the US dollar index broke down again.

The US DOLLAR INDEX resolved our quandary by dropping below its last support at 80.45 and proving once again that the US Dollar is a weak reed that will pierce the hand of anyone who leans on it. Today the dollar fell as low as 80.085 and now is trading down 47.4 basis points to 80.351. Dollar is overdue for some sort of rally, after the long fall from early June's 88.71 high. Is it washing out today, or will it drop further, to 79.51, the last intraday low (March)? The 200 DMA, a frequent target for corrections, stands at 80.65, so the dollar has already sunk past that point. The 200 week moving average stands at 80.16, and on the weekly chart the next bottom appears at 74.25. In addition, the 50 week MA lurks at 80.04, and that may catch the dollar as it falls.

STOCKS have sketched out a rising wedge and today's fall brought them to the lower boundary of that wedge. Remember that a rising wedge is bearish, that is, most often it ends with a downside breakout. Today the Dow closed at 10,653.56, down 21.42. S&P 500 closed at 1,121.64, down 4.17. These numbers appear measly but in fact portend much greater drops. All week long stocks traded out onto a limb bounded by 10600 and 10700. Today, the bough broke. Stocks spent most of the day trying to keep their mouth above water, with a low at 10,515.37, but LO! How Amazing. Friends came in toward the day's end to bid stocks up. They ought to buy a new sprayer for the Nice Government Men, they have to spend so much time painting the tape. Stocks may yet make one spike up, but a large drop will happen soon, maybe beginning next week.

Speaking of painting the tape, look at the GOLD PRICE today. It opened a little above yesterday's close, at $1,195.50, then somebody hit the open stop orders and the panic broke out. Within minutes the gold price had jumped to $1,210.50! Clearly the market was thin. Now maybe it was just the black shirts on the floor running the stops so they could write more trades, but this past week's strong upmoves argue against that. Nobody wanted to be short gold above $1,200, and they got their wish, but at a high price. SOMEbody managed to push gold back to $1,203.30 at the Comex close, up only $6.10, but they were only locking the barn door after the thoroughbreds had escaped. Gold is above $1,200, that's what counts. Now it must deal with resistance at $1,210 and $1,218. Watch for the rest of August to display gold prices edging higher and higher. Traders got their heads handed to them today. They will remain chary the rest of the month.

Stop waiting to buy gold. The lows have been posted.

The SILVER PRICE gained 47.2c or 2.6% this week. Comex closed at 1845.9c, up 15.1c today. Silver burst through that 1840c resistance and made a high at 18.57. This week's trading, all above 1800c, marked silver's first successful battle on that beachhead. Next challenge is 1860c, which silver should conquer next week. Yes, yes, August is fraught with sideways trading, but it is not unheard of for silver to begin a rally in August. Lows were seen last week, buy silver without fretting.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.