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Thursday, September 30, 2010

Much More of This Advance in the Gold Price Lies Ahead of Us, and No Great Correction Looms

Gold Price Close Today : 1307.80
Change : (0.70) or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.798
Change : (0.131) cents or -0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1656.00
Change : 21.00 or 1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 564.80
Change : 3.05 or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.00
Change : 0.326 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 10,788.05
Change : -47.23 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 78.95
Change : -0.387 or -0.5%

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO remains below 60:1. Watch that, watch that! Behold, many clever sellers -- too clever by half -- stand above 2200c ready to sell SILVER. Today the SILVER PRICE reached a high at 2205c early, and they clubbed it down. Low came around 11:30 at 21.56, but the silver price rebounded to 2185c and closed Comex at 2179.8c, giving up 13.1c from yesterday. So far, there's no weakness here, only the give and take of normal market action tugging back and forth in an advance. We ought to be thankful, yea, grateful in the extreme, for any opportunity to buy on even shallow dips.

The GOLD PRICE dropped 70c on Comex to close at $1,307.80. Sounds dull, but it wasn't if you were watching. The gold price was attacked on the open at its high, $1,315.50, dropped to $1,295.85 in a V, then picked its way right back up to $1308 and hung around there the rest of the day. Clearly strong support awaits from $1295 - $1308, and now resistance to beat is at $1,315.

I know I sound crazy, but much more of this gold price advance lies ahead of us, and no great correction looms. Gold in euros is hovering around the 50 DMA, which suggests its correction has ended.

At some breaking point probably nearby, the silver and gold markets will run out of sellers. Then we will see the muscle behind this rise. Scepticism remains, and that doubt is motivating sellers to cash out as if we were seeing significant highs. That will prove a mistake.

Okay, maybe I went overboard yesterday since one of my readers wrote describing that commentary as a "homily." Y'all see what reading newspapers and watching TV news does to me. Once you come out of the coma and grasp that that propaganda is what keeps most people in a coma, it's tough not to sound a bit preachy. However, in describing the "FDA Food Safety Modernization" Act, S.510, I remained modest, calm and understated, and stayed far from describing exactly how despicable it is or how gravely it will damage American's health, the economy, and small, local farmers. Within its scrofulous, slimy, loathsome body it embodies everything wrong with the US: corporate-government rule, suppression of competition under the self- righteous guise of salvation by government, poisoning the public with cardboard food, suppressing economic freedom, murder by government, destruction of common law rights, and all wrapped in the hypocritical toga of the rule of law.

Y'all still wondering how I feel about S. 510? Link for US senators contact information is www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm. Put in your state or zip code and get contact info. By the way, they count a mailed letter more significant than an email, but deluge them with emails anyway.

If you were caring for a dying patient when suddenly he half sat up, mumbled, then lay back down, would you conclude that they were healed? Just so the US DOLLAR INDEX today. It rose 8.3 basis points and is now trading at 78.774. Daily chart shows a little V bottom at 78.4 that likely represents the last push down of the last wave down. If so the dollar will rally slightly, maybe to 79.80 even, and then resume its plunge to 72 - 74.

STOCKS have a flat tire, and it is spinning in a mudhole. Dow today lost 47.23 to close 10,788.05. S&P 500 fared no better, losing 1.15 to stop at 1,141.20. One begins to sniff the tang of decay, the whiff of corruption, the puff of rot that hints the run is over and next comes the plunge.

Today the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) closed at the bottom of that G$170 - G$175 (8.223 - 8.466 oz) range that has held it captive for several weeks. Dow in Silver (DiSoz) remains at the last big low, 496.46 oz, ready to dive over the cliff.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Right Now Y'all are Watching Gold Run Away - I Can Only Hope Y'all Have Already Climbed Aboard that Express

Gold Price Close Today : 1308.50
Change : 1.90 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.929
Change : 0.241 cents or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1652.60
Change : 17.60 or 1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 566.70
Change : 4.95 or 0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 59.67
Change : -0.575 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial : 10,835.28
Change : -22.86 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 78.69
Change : -0.324 or -0.4%

Sellers drove gold down $15 to $1,285 and pressed silver down 55c to 2115c. Yet both not only fought off the attack but also reached new highs, showing stringy resilience and buying power standing ready to hop onto any decline. The shorts yesterday were soundly thrashed and sent to bed without supper.

In the last two days the US dollar has lost over 70 basis points, about 0.9%. Today it shed another 32.4 bps to land at 78.690. New support -- or support today -- is 78.60, but there is no reason to expect that to hold. Rebellious rumblings from the Minneapolis and Philadelphia Federal Reserve presidents today about Quantitative Easing aren't helping the dollar, since they clearly fear more inflation. One even said there is "no danger of deflation." When thieves fight among themselves, honest people can only benefit.

O, tired, tired, and weary were stocks today! They struggled all day to climb above the Unchanged mark but the suspicious were too strong for them. Indeed, they climbed barely over unchanged thrice, but closed the day near the bottom of the range. Dow fell 22.86 to 10,835.28 and the S&P500 dropped 2.99 to 1,144.71. Know how your car feels when it's burping and running out of gas? Daily chart for stocks looks exactly like that. Get out of stocks and stay out, unless you just want to lose copious cash.
Today the Dow in Silver Ounces fell to 494.65, within two measly ounces of its 2009 low. Below that 492 mark lies a black hole.

SILVER today essayed twice to break through 2200c. Y'all remember that there are double tops but no such thing as triple tops or bottoms. So today we have seen either the beginning of a correction (if these be twin tops) or a quick consolidation building force to break through 2200c on the next try. Today's low fell at 2167c, so a lapse through that mark would be the first warning a short correction may be forming. More likely is that silver taps the third magic time on that 2200c door tomorrow and bursts on thru.

Now why would I say such a thing? Because today the GOLD/ SILVER RATIO fell through 60 to 59.670. A falling ratio, especially one falling shockingly steeply, points to silver might, not silver faintness.

After yesterday's strenuous performance, gold took a breather today with a high at $1,312.98 and a low at $1,309.25. Comex gold closed at $1,308.50, up $1.90, while Comex silver stuffed a modest 24.1c in its pockets to walk away at 2192.9c. All this trading is taking place at unheard of levels, so who can guess the next barrier, support or resistance? Go with the round numbers, like $1,325, then $1,350. A long time ago I measured a target to $1,375, so that might do, too, for a goal from which to make a small correction.

Right now y'all are watching gold run away. I can only hope y'all have already climbed aboard that express.

My wife Susan's foot surgery today didn't go as well as it might have, but all's well that ends well. Thank you very much for your prayers and kind expressions of concern.

On the way to the hospital early this morning we were listening to the BBC (Boring Broadcasting Company) and it was astounding that every tale of woe -- whether the depression in Spain or whatever -- had its source in some lame-brain government policy. The Spanish were sold EU membership on the basis that they would all get rich in the resulting boom. Well, there was a boom, today 25% are out of work, the economy is suffering a post-real-estate-bubble collapse, and their local culture has been sacrificed to the great god Government- created Prosperity. Now they have no culture and no jobs, but they still have the EU bossing them around.

When we got to Susan's hospital room I tried to watch TV, only CNN, the news, but when I had watched for about 10 minutes, I remembered why I no longer listen to TV news. Where can they recruit that many goofs? Does an 8-year old choose the news topics? Does anybody really care what over-primped zeros opine on issues above their capacity to understand? Good thing for CNN, Fox, and the others that no station has a real news department, else millions of people would be twisting their dials off to shut them down.

Speaking of goofs, last Thursday my motel handed me a free copy of USA Today, America's comic book newspaper. I didn't need to start a fire or wrap fish, so I read it. Most hilarious was the headline, "Deflation Fears Send Gold Higher." Lo, here is how desperate, how befuddled, how muddled, how off-target their thinking. A few days ago these same experts touted inflation fears driving gold. Wow, gold is still rising, but the Fed hacks are talking up deflation now, so, so, maybe deflation is really driving gold.

People like this shouldn't be turned loose with a soft-lead pencil, let alone a computer and a newspaper column. Safest course in life is, when you don't know the answer, say so. It prevents people mistaking you for an arrogant fool.

I don't normally ask favours but the hideously misnamed "FDA Food Safety Modernization Act," S. 510, will be voted on in the US senate this week. Y'all already know that these bills always institute the opposite of their names, and this one ought to be called the "Protect the Corrupt Corporate Food System and Eliminate Small Farmer Competition Act." The blasted thing is 266 pages long, filled with nasty competition- stifling bones for the same corporate food processors who bring you CAFOs, high fructose corn syrup, antibiotic resistant salmonella, and unsafe-at-any-price GMOs, etc., etc. The corporate dinosaurs are trying to strike a pre-emptive blow at small farmers and clean, healthy local food production because they know that left alone, it will take over in the next 20 years and they will lose their captive, ignorant market.

For your health and your children's, write to your US senator and tell him to vote NO on S. 510. Thanks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices Stand Now Far Below their Ultimate Gains for this Move

Gold Price Close Today : 1306.60
Change : 9.90 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.688
Change : 0.233 cents or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1635.00
Change : 2.70 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 561.75
Change : 500.64 or 819.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.25
Change : -0.193 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,858.14
Change : 46.10 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 78.95
Change : -0.387 or -0.5%


The last few days I have sounded awfully negative on silver and gold prices, trying to impress y'all's minds with the snap volatility of markets climbing in strong advances. Today, let my pendulum swing back the other way.

This rally is not over yet, by a long shot. Sure, it will get a shallow correction somewhere, but silver and gold stand now far below their ultimate gains for this move.

Think about the DiG$'s behaviour since its 26 August low at G$167.09 (8.053 oz). It drifted up to G$175.04 (8.467 oz) by 20 September, and has ranged from there to G$170.29 (8.238oz). That sort of lock- step with gold suggests that along with gold, the Dow is merely discounting the US dollar's fall, and not much more. Gold in Euros confirms that suspicion, since it has gently rolled over from the first of September, from E993 to E964 today. Euro gold has returned to its 50 day moving average, which loudly whispers that its little downward move has ended and that it is about to rise again. If that happens while the dollar is falling, dollar gold will speed up, not slow down.

Although this rally is not over yet, the past two weeks' trading take your breath away. Since 7 September, out of the last 16 trading days, gold has made nine (9) new all-time highs. Every day of the last five, including today, gold has made a new all time high.

Silver has made new all time highs since 2008's 2068.5c. On 16 September it finally broke that 30 month barrier by closing at 2074.5c. Since then silver has chalked up seven new highs over nine trading days, including today's 2168.8c, a dollar above 2008. Yet the advances are steady, not with giant leaps but with inexorable determination.

The gold/silver ratio keeps on dropping, too. It has dropped past last spring's low at 62.577 and today stands at 60.250, a new low for the move. At 58.531 it clears the bottom of the triangle. It is dropping straight down, like your car keys out of your shirt pocket into the wishing well at Disneyworld. It is behaving exactly as it should if silver and gold intend to rally much further.
The Dow in Silver Ounces (DiSoz) vergeth also upon breakdown. Today at 500.65 ounces to buy the Dow, it is just about to break 500 and the old low at 492.54 ounces.

This rally is far from over.

TODAY the US Dollar Index followed Fate and dropped 38.7 basis points, 1/2%, to trade now at 78.951. That's a new low for the move, and must draw the inference that the dollar has its eyes set on 74 or lower.

STOCKS today gained, but not to any effect. Dow added 46.1 to 10,858.14 and S&P rose 5.54 to 1,147.70. As I said, stocks are merely discounting the dollar's drop, but soon will realize that more than a withering dollar is needed for stocks to gain value. A viable economy is needed, too. Stay away from stocks.

GOLD broke the $1,300 barrier, climbing $9.90 on Comex to close at $1,306.60. Silver gained 23.3c and closed on Comex at 2168.8. High today was 2175c, and it's trading now at 2174c, while gold is trading at $1,308.20.

On this day in 1850 the US Navy abolished flogging as a form of punishment, replacing it with tickling the sole of the foot with a large pelican feather.

On this day in 1678 Pilgrim's Progress was published, one of the most widely read Christian books in the world, then and now.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



The Gold Price Closed 1306.60 and the Silver Price Closed at 21.68

Gold Price Close Today : 1,306.60
Change : 9.90 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.68
Change : .23 or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,635.70
Change : 5.60 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 560.30
Change : 9.60 or 1.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.27
Change : -0.18 or 1.00%

Dow Industrial : 10,812.04
Change : -48.22 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 79.39
Change : -0.76 or -1.0%


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, September 27, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices Continue to Move Relentlessly Higher - Watch for Sudden, Violent Corrections

Gold Price Close Today : 1296.70
Change : 0.70 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.455
Change : 0.072 cents or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1632.30
Change : -9.20 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 550.95
Change : -8.25 or -1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.44
Change : -0.171 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,812.04
Change : -48.22 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 79.54
Change : 0.183 or 0.2%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES continue to move relentlessly higher, eerily higher. No doubt hot money is driving them, too, so watch out for sudden, violent corrections.

Yet at the same time, bear in mind that we are now in the second stage of the silver and gold bull market. The first great wave up peaked in March 2008 and bottomed in November 2008. Now we have entered the Great Wave Three up, which is always a wild, volatile ride. As I saw stocks do in the 1990s, metals will move relentlessly, unstoppably forward. Sure, corrections will occur, but then metals will bounce right back. Truth is, the bull market has barely begun.

The SILVER PRICE today rose 7.2c on Comex to close at 2145.5c. The GOLD PRICE rose, too, 70c to $1,296.70. Plainly the market is watching $1,300, and gold is monstrously overbought, but no more overbought than silver. Fact is, they've both been overbought for two weeks and more, and can stay there a while, but every day brings the likelihood of a correction closer. I know my needle is stuck in the same groove, but I must repeat that this correction will not last long, and still more rally and much higher prices lie in January 2011 or spring 2011. Look for gold at $1,600 and silver at $33.70 before it ends.

'Twould be obstinate, blind stupidity to conclude from the US dollar's weakness that the euro is strong and fit. It's not. In fact, the euro is sicker than the dollar because it is subject to political stresses which the US$ suffereth not from.

Of the EU's 27 member countries, some -- Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain, for example -- have lived for generations as inflation addicts, or are only now awakening from bubbles with an inflationary hangover. Moronic Keynesian economics leads them to believe that more inflation will cure the sickness prior inflation caused. In the sweaty shakes of withdrawal, they are always threatening to make the whole Frankenstein euro project fly apart. The dollar at least, with its totalitarian government from Washington, doesn't suffer from that particular weakness.

Presently the dollar is suffering (assuming the market isn't seeing some catastrophe looming that the rest of us don't see) from the Federal Reserve's implied intent to employ Quantitative Easing (read: more and bigger inflation). The markets took Ben at his hint, and so are fleeing the US dollar and buying stocks and metals. Once the dollar has eroded to 74 or so, or even sooner, the pendulum will swing the other way and the dollar will rally. It is the battle of the feckless against the pointless, a tale of sound and fury, signifying nothing but the world wide failure of all fiat currencies.

Bear in mind, though, that not all inflation effects are equal. The effect of current inflation expectations will keep on driving metals, but not stocks. Why? Because metals are driven by flight from fiat currencies, but stocks respond to economic conditions. And over the long haul, inflation can never create prosperity, only poverty. Keynes notwithstanding.

Friday the US dollar index hit a new low below 79.30, then today the dollar bumped along that bottom and made a slightly lower low at 79.20. Nice, but problem is the dollar has broken down past the support of the last low. That implies a much lower target, at least to 78 and plausibly to 74.25. Not a bright future, and at the same time the winner-following craze baton has passed to the euro. Silly, but there it is. Bear in mind always that the US dollar is oversold enough to stage a snap rally and cut your head off at any moment. Still, the trend is down. Dollar today closed 79.53c, up 18.3 basis points.

STOCKS burped today on their way to Nirvana. The Dow dropped 48.22 to 10,812.04 and the S&P500 dropped 6.51 to 1,142.16. Hot money is driving them, and hot money will leave them just as fast. Can most of the world be benighted and misadjusted sufficiently to believe that more inflation can fix the globe's economic problems? Apparently so. As PT Barnum once said, "Nobody ever went broke over-estimating the gullibility of the American people." He might just as well have included investors world-wide.

On Wednesday, 29 September 2010 my wife Susan must undergo an operation on her foot. I will not be publishing a commentary that day. And I would deeply appreciate your prayers on behalf of a safe and successful surgery for her.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Sunday, September 26, 2010

Hold on to Your Silver and Gold - If You Have no Silver or Gold Yet, Buy

Gold Price Close Today : 1,296.00
Gold Price Close 17-Sep : 1,275.60
Change : 20.40 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 2138.3
Silver Price Close 17-Sep : 2079
Change : 59.30 or 2.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,641.50
Platinum Price Close 17-Sep : 1,609.60
Change : 31.90 or 2.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 559.70
Palladium Price Close 17-Sep : 547.90
Change : 11.80 or 2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.61
Gold Silver Ratio 17-Sep : 61.36
Change : -0.75 or -1.2%

Dow Industrial : 10,860.26
Dow Industrial 17-Sep : 10,607.85
Change : 252.41 or 2.4%

US Dollar Index : 79.282
US Dollar Index 17-Sep : 81.428
Change : -2.15 or -2.6%



I've just returned from a long trip, but wanted to take this chance late Saturday afternoon to update y'all on this week's works and prices.

Both silver and gold are locked into a very strange uptrend. Both are overbought, both refuse to flinch, both keep making all time new highs. Ratio dropped Friday to 60.36. Silver is roaring, way past 2100c at 2138.3c and eyeing 2200c. Gold can sneeze on $1,300 from here. Friday on comex silver closed at 2138.3, up 18.9c while gold made another all time high at $1,296, up $1.70.

This sort of run is rare and unpredictable, and liable to stop any time. However, if gold clears $1,300, the next target implied is $1,375, a target I have long expected. Silver? Silver? Well, above the 2008 high at 2068c, why, "how high" is anybody's guess.

What befuddles me is that stocks are moving right along with silver and gold. Why? Maybe people perceive them as a refuge from the puking-sick dollar. Whatever their thinking, it is wrong. The economy will take care of stocks, and that right soon. Stay away from stocks, stay away. Picture my long bony finger in your face as I say that, and take it to heart.

Yet when stocks correct their fall will also burden silver. Hard for me to avoid picturing a little further rise, then a correction of 3-4 weeks for metals, and then a further rise either into January-February 2011 or spring 2011, that latter rise carrying gold to $1,600 and silver to 3370c.

Right -- I know it sounds crazy, but that's a bull market for you.
The US DOLLAR INDEX simply cannot get well. Friday it closed at 79.282, down 80.4 basis points, a huge move that carries it down 215 basis points (2.6%) for the week. Not too oddly, that's about the same percentage that stocks rose for the week.

Hold on to your silver and gold. If you have no silver or gold yet, buy. Watch out for stocks, a time bomb that has already gone "Tock." Dollar index is headed much lower, so you'd be better off taking your chances with silver or gold than with the buck.

Y'all enjoy your weekend. Argentums et aurum comparanda sunt --


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, September 24, 2010

The Gold Price Closed at 1296 - Another New All Time High

Gold Price Close Today : 1,296.00
Gold Price Close 17-Sep : 1,275.60
Change : 20.40 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.38
Silver Price Close 17-Sep : 20.79
Change : 0.59 or 2.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,639.80
Platinum Price Close 17-Sep : 1,621.90
Change : 17.90 or 1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 558.50
Palladium Price Close 17-Sep : 543.30
Change : 15.20 or 2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.62
Gold Silver Ratio 17-Sep : 61.36
Change : -0.74 or 0.99%

Dow Industrial : 10,662.42
Dow Industrial 17-Sep: 10,594.83
Change : 67.59 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 80.14
US Dollar Index 17-Sep : 81.02
Change : -0.88 or -1.1%

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, September 23, 2010

The Gold Price Closed at 1294.60 - Another New All Time High

Gold Price Close Today : 1,294.60
Change : 4.10 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.19
Change : .16 or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,650.20
Change : 17.30 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 554.85
Change : 15.20 or 2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.08
Change : -0.27 or 1.00%

Dow Industrial : 10,739.31
Change : -21.72 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 79.82
Change : -0.01 or 0.0%



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, September 22, 2010

The Gold Price Closed at 1290.20 up 17.80 - Another New All Time High Close

Gold Price Close Today : 1,290.20
Change : 17.80 or 1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.03
Change : .42 or 2.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,632.90
Change : 20.50 or 1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 539.65
Change : 11.85 or 2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.35
Change : -0.36 or 0.99%

Dow Industrial : 10,739.31
Change : -21.72 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 80.19
Change : 0.03 or 0.0%


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Higher, Yes, and Higher Still Will Silver and Gold Prices Trade

Gold Price Close Today : 1272.40
Change : (6.60) or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.620
Change : (0.157) cents or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1622.30
Change : -9.00 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 534.30
Change : 0.50 or 0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.71
Change : 0.149 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial : 10,761.03
Change : 7.41 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 80.41
Change : -0.928 or -1.1%

One of the most telling market indicators is public sentiment. It becomes most outrageously over-optimistic at tops and most pessimistic at bottoms. Humans extend the present into the future forever, forgetting that we live in a world where only the only unchanging principle is that everything is always changing.

Thus yesterday I pointed out to you that long-time silver and gold holders were selling, which points away from a top, because the public is usually wrong at peaks. That means they would be buying more instead of selling if this were a long-term peak. Likewise, the mumbling moil of analysts and commentators proclaiming gold and silver are peaking furnishes yet another evidence they are nowhere near that climax. At the bull market top you won't be able to find a bear with a telescope and a Geiger counter.

Yet these clues are subtle, and easily lend themselves to misinterpretation, even for experts.

TODAY the Federal Reserve did for the GOLD PRICE what gold could not do for itself, namely, announced more "Quantative Easing", a.k.a., inflation at will. Wisely enough the Fed-ites waited until after the Comex gold market had closed to make their announcement. Gold jumped from $1,272 to $1,291 faster than you can say "Stumbling-into-hyperinflation." After all's said and done, after all the Nice Government Men's manipulations, gold's best friend remains the US Federal Reserve and the US government.

Today from the $1,279 open the gold price had sunk to Thursday-Friday's low about $1,272.00. Comex closed $1,272.40, down 6.60. Then came the Fed's announcement and the gold price climbed onto the elevator. Right now it's trading at $1,286.90, which is one more new high.

The SILVER PRICE made what I believe is a new intraday high today at $21.07. For most of the New York trading day it fell to $20.48, then the Fed boosted the price and the silver price hit that new high. That was after Comex has closed down 15.7c at $20.62. Now at $20.98.

Appears to me that SILVER and GOLD PRICES did a little corrective double-take today, shook off the weakness, and roared ahead. I'd be surprised if they didn't follow through tomorrow with much higher prices. RSI and MACD are screaming "Overbought!" but what do silver and gold care? Nothing. Y'all are getting the faintest foretaste of the frenzied, foaming- at-the-mouth trading that is to come. Higher, yes, and higher still will silver and gold trade.

Needless to say, the dollar plunged upon the Fed's announcement, breaking through that 80.85 last low all the way to 80.20. That nixes any chance of a dollar rally any time soon, and if it breaks 80, the dollar's fate -- and a trip back to 70 -- is sealed.

HOWEVER, I would like to see whether the Euro can cross above its 200 DMA tomorrow and stay there. After all, the euro is just as trashy as the dollar. As of right now, dollar index is 80.412, down a meaty 92.8 basis points. Wow. Ben and his Busy Boys sure know how to manage a currency, don't they?

STOCKS tried hard today to best yesterday's high, rising all the way to Dow 10,833. Alas! 'Twas not to be. Dow managed to hang on to only 7.41 points of that gain and closed at 10,761.03. SUP500 closed DOWN 2.93 at 1,139.78. Stocks' reaction to the Fed's announcement (all the big gain came after the news) examples how markets often react opposite to the rational. How stock buyers could rationalize that a severely-inflated dollar would help the poor, battered US economy beats me, but apparently they did. They're just as ignorantly wrong-headed as Bernanke and Co.

I must travel tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday, so this is the last commentary I will send this week. God willing, I will return on Monday.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, September 20, 2010

At Some Point Silver and Gold Prices Will Correct, But When?

Gold Price Close Today : 1279.00
Change : 3.40 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.777
Change : (0.013) cents or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1631.30
Change : 14.60 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 533.80
Change : -9.05 or -1.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.56
Change : 0.202 or 0.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,753.62
Change : 145.77 or 1.4%

US Dollar Index : 81.29
Change : 0.162 or 0.2%

If Dr. Pangloss were alive today he would be most thoroughly pleased with markets of the last two fortnights. Yes, the dollar is slowly sinking, but stocks are rising, and silver and gold prices are floating upward like your son's helium balloon, right into the wild blue yonder. 'Tis the best of all possible worlds -- or is it?

Last week silver and gold prices modestly corrected. The SILVER PRICE fell to 2040c and the GOLD PRICE to 1245.10 early in the week, but that embarrassed them not a bit. The gold price finished the week at $1,275.60, $30.50 higher than Monday. The silver price finished at 2079c, up 88c from Monday. Today silver fell 1.3c to close at 2077.7 on Comex, while gold rose $3.40 to another new all-time high at $1,279.00. Those new all-time highs are now a near daily occurrence.

Now ponder a moment: no mushroom groweth forever. At some point silver and gold prices will correct, but when? The charts are eerily progressive, with hardly a slip. They are unquestionably overbought, but overbought can abide a long time.

I stared at silver's chart and methought an inverse head and shoulders appeared from December 2009 thru August 2010. If I saw aright, it measures 482c from bottom of head to neckline at 1964c, which yields a target of 2445.7c. Yet surely first must come some sort of correction to work off the overbought-ness.

We are dealing with the razor-edges of the market proverb, "A bull market always climbs a wall of worry." Is it time to worry, or to buy and trust the bull? At this point nothing would surprise me, a big jump up or a stumble, but that stumble is overdue.

How do you play it? You have to ride it if you have silver and gold, and buy now if you don't, trusting the trend to bail out your bad timing. Oddly enough, we are seeing more sales to us than usual, often from folks we haven't heard from in 10 - 12 years. And premiums have subtly dropped at wholesale. But I humbly opine that anyone who sells now -- especially silver -- is only climbing out of the boat precisely when it is about to make its strongest race. Sure, I know silver made a new all-time high last week, besting March 2008's 2068c, but that doesn't mean a top by any means! It only means that silver has now confirmed gold's wildly bullish action. Why would you sell now? Look at the horizon. Primary uptrends (bull markets) last 15 - 20 years. The precious metals turned up in 2001. Neither by time nor price have they fulfilled bull market targets. They have much further to run.

Add to all those reasons the GOLD/SILVER RATIO. It has fallen out of the long even-sided triangle and is nearing longer term resistance at 60:1. Once it breaks that, 'twill accelerate.

The US DOLLAR INDEX made at least a short term bottom last Friday at 80.85, and didn't fall through the trap door at 80. Support today was tested and held at 81.10, the bottom of the inverse shoulder on Thursday. The dollar is now bumping against overhead resistance at 81.50. Were it to fail again, the consequences would be messy. More likely it will tomorrow pierce 81.50 and try to rally. Whether it makes good that try remains to be seen.

The Dow today reached 10,753.62, up 145.77, while the S&P500 closed up 17.12 at 1,142.71. That's about as far as I expected stocks to run. What argues for the rally continuing? That this top slightly exceeds the August intraday top at 10,719.94. My guess is that today will prove to be that burst of enthusiasm that looks like everyone on the world is jumping on, only to disappoint tomorrow or the next day with a sharp fall. Don't be gulled by this trick, stay out of stocks.

My whole family went to one of the South Carolina sea islands for vacation. Charming and exotic as that country is, when I got home last night, smelled the air and saw the moon on the ridges, I remembered that every place has its own peculiar beauty, but this is my place, and that always makes it more beautiful still.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Long or Short, Both Silver and Gold Prices Will Climb Much Higher Into the Fall, Peaking in January 2011 or Spring 2011 at $1,600 and $33.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1,244.50
Gold Price Close 3-Sep : 1,249.20
Change : -4.70 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 1980.2
Silver Price Close 3-Sep : 1991.5
Change : -11.30 or -0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,544.00
Platinum Price Close 3-Sep : 1,558.00
Change : -14.00 or -0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 522.00
Palladium Price Close 3-Sep : 532.00
Change : -10.00 or -1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.85
Gold Silver Ratio 3-Sep : 62.73
Change : 0.12 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial : 10,447.67
Dow Industrial 3-Sep : 10,428.18
Change : 19.49 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index : 82.687
US Dollar Index 3-Sep : 82.530
Change : 0.16 or 0.2%

Dear Readers: Today is September 20, and somehow as I was tearing out of here for vacation this Friday update was not sent to you. For the record, here it is. I'll be back this evening with a daily commentary. -- Franklin Sanders

Here I am trying to write y'all before I leave town and a rainstorm smothers my satellite internet service. I'll give y'all the best I've got.

This week saw gold hit a new all-time high at $1,257.30 while silver exceeded all the old highs but wrestled with 2000c resistance and couldn't take out the 2068c high from March 2008.

Since silver and gold only backed off yesterday, I can't say yet whether this will be a large (3-4 week) or small (a few days) correction. If small, prices won't drop lower than $1,236 and 1950c. If larger, then we will see $1,210 and 1888c. If the smaller correction ensues, then silver will pierce 2068 soon, but not by much. If the longer correction pursues, silver won't even slow down at 2068.

Long or short, both silver and gold will climb much higher into the fall, peaking in January 2011 or spring 2011 at $1,600 and 3370c. Leastwise, so it seemeth at present.

On Comex today silver lost one cent to close 1980.2c while gold lost $4.40 to close at $1,244.50.
The US DOLLAR INDEX still cannot make up its mind whether it will fade and return to 70 or continue in a rally. Hangs in the balance, and the balance is leaning toward toppling. Lost 3.9 bps today and is now at 82.687.

STOCKS are enjoying a bear market rally, trying to gull in as many victims as possible. Stay away, I don't care how high they go or how your broker whines. Stay away, stay away, and keep your dough to spend another day.

Dow today at 1:30, before the closes, has gained 32.43 to 10,447.67 and the S&P500 has gained 4.07 to 1,108.25.

Remember, I'll be away on vacation all next week, so won't be writing any commentaries. Just to sew up one item, somebody wrote me that in North America there aren't any Japanese hornets, a.k.a., Giant Asian Hornets, vespa mandarina. Somebody ought to tell the hornets that so they'll pack up and move back to Asia. Mercy! I'll buy their tickets.

One last thing: Last year when I went on vacation about this time silver and gold looked very similar. They were rallying but hadn't run hog-wild yet. They spent September sorting things out, then resumed the rise. In September they were confirming a further rise. I believe we're in about the same place today, only holding a larger scale rally by the tail.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, September 17, 2010

The Gold Price Closed at 1275.60 a New All Time High Close

Gold Price Close Today : 1,275.60
Gold Price Close 10-Sep : 1,244.50
Change : 31.10 or 2.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.79
Silver Price Close 10-Sep : 19.802
Change : 0.99 or 4.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,621.90
Platinum Price Close 10-Sep : 1,542.50
Change : 79.40 or 4.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 543.30
Palladium Price Close 10-Sep : 517.55
Change : 25.75 or 4.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.36
Gold Silver Ratio 10-Sep : 62.85
Change : -1.49 or 0.98%

Dow Industrial : 10,594.83
Dow Industrial 10-Sep: 10,462.77
Change : 132.06 or 1.2%

US Dollar Index : 81.02
US Dollar Index 10-Sep : 82.69
Change : -1.67 or -2.1%

Franklin Sanders is on holiday and will return on the 20th of September 2010.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, September 16, 2010

Gold Price Closed at 1271.90 up 5.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1,271.90
Change : 5.20 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.74
Change : .20 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,611.90
Change : 6.60 or 0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 546.95
Change : -10.20 or -1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.33
Change : -0.34 or 0.99%

Dow Industrial : 10,572.73
Change : 46.24 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 81.52
Change : 81.52 or 100.0%


Franklin Sanders is on holiday and will return on the 20th of September 2010.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Gold Price Closed at 1266.70 Down $3

Gold Price Close Today : 1,266.70
Change : -3.00 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.54
Change : .14 or 0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,605.30
Change : 10.90 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 557.15
Change : 5.40 or 1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.67
Change : -0.57 or 0.99%

Dow Industrial : 10,572.73
Change : 46.24 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 81.61
Change : 81.61 or 100.0%

Franklin Sanders is on holiday and will return on the 20th of September 2010.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, September 09, 2010

Whether After a Shorter or Longer (3-4 wk) Correction, Silver and Gold Will Move Much Higher this Fall

Gold Price Close Today : 1249.70
Change : (5.90) or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.780
Change : (0.198) cents or -1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1548.00
Change : -10.00 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 521.00
Change : -5.00 or -1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.18
Change : 0.331 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 10,415.24
Change : 28.23 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index : 82.68
Change : 0.126 or 0.2%

Whenever a market breaks into higher ground, then fails to hold on to that gain, it smells of weakness. The Dow today reached 10,476.62 early in the day, plateaued, then commenced dropping about 12:30, down nearly to unchanged. Then it livened up a bit and climbed toward the close, dropping off the last 30 minutes to close up only 28.23 at 10,415.24 (S&P500 rose 5.31 to 1,104.18). Add to this: 10,450 was the resistance stocks had to beat today, they pierced that, but couldn't hold on. Now they might break through tomorrow, but this looks sort of like a double top at 10,450 (with Friday). Or stocks might head tomorrow for 10,750. Either way, gravity has not been repealed and will shortly reassert its irresistible dominion.

The dollar rose 12.6 basis points to 82.684, but has resolved nothing. Yesterday and today it bottomed at roughly 82.40, while Tuesday and Wednesday it topped at 82.90. Dollar is trapped between those boundaries, and will end our bewilderment by breaking through one or the other. If the dollar were a horse, I wouldn't be betting on it.

The GOLD PRICE backed off $5.90 on the Comex close to $1,249.70 and now is trading at $1,244.80. We may have seen the end of the rise, or it may have one leg up left. But back off: a 50% correction of the move from the July 27 low at $1,155.90 would take gold to $1,209.10, awfully close to that well-known $1,210 support, right on the 50 day moving average ($1,211.36), and perfect correction to launch another advance.

On the other hand, the 20 DMA stands at $1,236.06, and if this amounts to a correction before one last leg up, it ought to stop there.

Much the same could be said for the SILVER PRICE, but silver's rise from 23 August when it touched the 200 DMA is a right vertical affair. Breaking out as it did from that long banishment under roughly 1950c, it has the look of a runaway market.

What's the other side of that? It's a vertical rise, and nothing goes straight up for long. If it is a breakout from that 2+ year triangle, then it might touch back to the breakout point, which was roughly 1850c. That's that "final kiss good-bye" move we see so often. 50 DMA is at 1838c, 20 DMA at 1888c, so there's support there. Also, in the late August breakout, 1880c served twice as milestone resistance/support. My guess is that a break below 1950c will carry to one of those points. If it doesn't break 1950c in two days or so, then it will head back up.

Whether after a shorter or longer (3-4 wk) correction, silver and gold will move much higher this fall. Much.

On this day in 1513 at the Battle of Flodden Field James IV of Scotland was killed by the English, the last British monarch to die in battle. It was a battle of English bills (a hooked chopping blade on a 6 foot pole) versus Scottish pikes (a long pointed spear not meant to be thrown, 10 to 25 feet long). The English lost 1,500 to 5,000 Scots killed. It was the beginning of a long decline for Scottish power that was not reversed until James VI became James I of England. All of those Stewarts were troublesome.

I didn't get any sleep last night. Was lying peacefully in bed reading when a helicopter buzzed overhead in my room. Sure enough, it was a Japanese hornet. They're about the size of the last two joints of a grown man's little finger and their sting last six to 12 months.

I can get along with just about any wildlife, snakes, spiders, armadillos, but there's just no reasoning with a hornet. It is them or me, and there's no possible way to sleep with one in the room. Before you strike, you must patiently wait for the hornet to fly in circles around the room, then Whack! when he lights. However, that only stuns him. It takes a direct blow with a ball-peen hammer to kill one.

And I dispatched this one with no more damage than waking my wife up. Calmed her down, lay back down to read, and not 5 minutes later, here comes another one. Evacuated my wife and called in my daughter, who helped me assassinate this one, too.

I turned off the light, but all night long kept waking up, wondering if another one had crept in the room. I'd have slept with a .45, the only other effective weapon against a Japanese hornet, but they make such big holes in the wall.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, September 08, 2010

There is Fierce, Unstoppable Buying Power Beneath This Market

Gold Price Close Today : 1255.60
Change : (1.70) or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.978
Change : 0.090 cents or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1558.00
Change : 22.00 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 526.00
Change : 6.00 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.85
Change : -0.370 or -0.6%

Dow Industrial : 10,387.01
Change : 46.32 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 82.66
Change : -0.293 or -0.4%

Please note that I will be away on vacation all next week so I will not be publishing commentaries then.

Silver and gold wrestled with resistance today like Jerry Lawler against the Masked Avenger. Rough. (This is a metaphor only those who watched TV wrestling in Memphis 35 years ago can appreciate.)

STOCKS today gained, but . . . The Dow rose 46.32 to 10,387.01 while the S&P500 added 7.03 to end at 1,098.87.

None of this looks particularly strong to me. The five day chart shows what might be a rounding top over the last three days. Resistance stands at 10,450 and if the Dow can squeeze through that point it might arrive at 10,720, but the mighty 200 day moving average stands in its way at 10,451. Doesn't excite me up or down, but I noticed today that Al Thomas of www.mutualfundmagic.com, thought stocks were leaning to the upside. Al is one of those Old Dogs (said with the utmost respect) who has actually spent his life trading for a living. If he tells you a rooster dips snuff, you can look under his wing for the brush. And when he says the market is leaning upwards in the teeth of what he understands is a bear market, it hints that he expects a temporary rise. Whatever the outcome, this action is only torture for the bear's victims, so keep yourself out of his claws: stay out of stocks.

US DOLLAR index got its feet tangled in the 20 (82.72) and 50 (82.61) day moving averages today. It lost 29.3 basis points and now runs 82.606. Five day chart, if it speaks aught other than gibberish, hints that the dollar has finished its first move up off the 81.90 low and today corrected that upmove. If I were long dollars, and, LO! I would never do such an insane act, I would not want that dollar to drop below 82.40 support, today's low. That would make me run for the doors or hide under a table, hinting as it would that the buck is about to drop sharply.

SILVER and GOLD had games played on them all day as the struggled to pierce stonewall resistance.

The five day chart is all meaningless chop back and forth, but this much stands out: today silver never fell below 1983c, and it reached a higher high at 2014c. Is that a spike top today, or something else. My intuition, watching silver struggle today, still insists we have not quite reached the top. Close, maybe, but not quite. Yet consider the progress: that old stonewall at 1980c has been cracked. If silver intended to stop here, would it have done that, or would it have failed first?

This was another crazy day, but today it was gold's turn to drop and silver's to rise. Silver added 9c to close at 1997.8c, not quite the 2000c that will demoralize all bears once it is left behind. Gold lost $1.70 to close $1,255.60. Like silver, gold doesn't appear to have topped yet. Same support levels rivet our attention today, that is, silver must not close below 1950c nor gold below $1240.

We may observe a week or two more of upward flight in silver and gold prices before they correct. However, this correction will not be terribly deep, and it will only set metals up for a much longer, stronger move into a January or spring 2011 peak. There is fierce, unstoppable buying power beneath this market.

My daughter Liberty has reported on the Bodacious Hoedown with pictures at her blog, 16 Balls in the Air, www.16ballsintheair.com/2010/09/hoedown-time-to-dance.html. You can read about it there.

SPECIAL OFFER:
Although I don't usually stock them due to their high premium, today I bought a large lot of 1/10 American Eagles at a very favourable price. If I had to buy them from a wholesaler, I would have to charge you $146.90, a 17% premium.

However, next week I will be away on vacation and I would like to move these out by Friday (not ship them, just get them sold).

Here is my special offer: I will sell lots of Twenty (20) coins each for $138.05 apiece, a 9.9% based on $1,256.10 spot gold.

Minimum order is a lot of Twenty (20) pieces, or 20 x $137 = $2,740, plus $25 shipping.

You may order more than 20 pieces, but only in increments of twenty (20), so I will sell you 20 or 40, or 60, but not 24 or 37 or or 50 or 70. Add $25.00 per order for shipping.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail. Ordering Instructions:

1. You may order by e-mail only to franklin@the-moneychanger.com.
Your email MUST include your complete name, address, and phone number. Please mention you saw this special offer on goldprice.org. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.
2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.
3. "First-come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by email.
4. If your order is filled , we will email you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, you order was not filled.
5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.
6. We will allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month. Next week all but one of us will be out of the office and so we will not make any shipments next week.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices Have Plenty of Room to Move Up

Gold Price Close Today : 1257.30
Change : 8.20 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.883
Change : (0.030) cents or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1558.00
Change : 22.00 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 522.00
Change : 2.00 or 0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.23
Change : 0.507 or 0.8%

Dow Industrial : 10,340.69
Change : -107.24 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index : 82.82
Change : 0.762 or 0.9%

Bogus, thy name is today's SILVER and GOLD PRICE markets.

On the open the SILVER PRICE burst upward from $19.834 to $19.99 and traded sideways till 11 a.m., when it fell off to $19.69. At that point somebody could no longer hold the basketball underwater, and the silver price shot up to $19.90. Comex close came at $19.883, down 3.2c from Friday. Right. Sure. The silver price falls 3.2c on the same day the gold price rises $8.20 to a new all time high. Right. Paint that tape, boys! Paint that tape!

Of course, it might not have been the Nice Government Men and their scabrous Wall Street running dogs. It might have merely been speculators taking an obvious short position where the silver price has failed several times before.

All day Monday and into today's New York open the GOLD PRICE flatlined. It opened at $1,248.65 and auf einmal shot directly to $1,259.45, leaving an exhaustion gap at $1,256. Gold then traded sideways, filled that gap and dropped to $1,254.5. Then it rolled up again, closing Comex at $1,257.30, up $8.20. Yes, that is a new all-time high close , above the last one at $1,255.80 on 25 June 2010.

Is that it? Is it over? Is that all there is?

Hardly. All the indicators I follow show silver and gold prices with plenty of room to move up against their moving averages. Gold's RSI is high, and its MACD about where it was last June, but still rising. Silver is more overbought on its RSI, but has plenty of room to rise a little more. I don't think this rally will end until silver tops its 2008 high at 2068c. However, a close below 1950c and $1,240 would change my mind.

Whoa! I almost forgot the gold silver ratio. That chart shows the ratio falling out of that longstanding even-sided triangle straight down like drool off a baby's lower lip. Previous low I want to see exceeded for confirmation is 62.57, and low Friday was 62.72, 63.23 today. We must see that confirmation first, but that ratio moves fast when it moves, and this looks like one of those moves. That, too, argues that silver and gold prices have further to rise, especially silver.

Yesterday while US markets were closed the dollar fell to a new low for the move at 81.90. Overnight the dollar gapped up. Then today the dollar steadily rose, 76.2 basis points, a sizeable climb. Now it's trading at 82.816. That turns the dollar around temporarily. It has closed above its 50 dma (82.68) but must now best the last high at 83.56 and move higher still. Jury remains out on the dollar's direction, but 't'ain't leaning upside.
Somebody pulled the plug on STOCKS today. Friday the Dow reached its 200 DMA (10,450), which has stopped so many earlier rallies. Today came the hangover, down 107.24 to 10,340.69 (S&P500 dropped 12.67 to 1,091.84). Stocks fell from the open and stayed flat all day until 3:00 pm., when they fell a little mo. A close below 50 DMA (10,270) will accelerate the fall.

We held the Bodacious Hoedown on Saturday, and the weather was perfect, high about 80. Big hit with the crowd was the Dunking Booth, where they got to dunk the Moneychanger, namely, me. After about 100 balls thrown, my own grandson finally tripped the target. Hard to imagine how cold that water was. We had a pork barbecue supper with all the trimmings, then the Old Time band warmed up and the dance caller chimed in. Worn out as I was, I still had to dance. Floor was crowded with every age from 2 to 63.

We had a few, only a few, Bodacious Hoedown tee shirts left over. These are sea-foam green with a Top of the World logo and Bodacious Hoedown 2010 on the left front chest, while Hoedown is defined on the back. You can see pictures of the shirt and the hoedown at http://southernhospitalityblog.com/old-fashioned-family-fun-a-hoe-down-in-tn/. We will ship them to you by priority mail for $20 postpaid. If you want more than one, then $15 each plus $5/order postage. Email me at with your size, your name and address and phone number and I'll let you know if we have one in that size. First come, first served.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, September 03, 2010

Silver and Gold Prices are Breaking Out Into a Huge Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1,249.20
Gold Price Close 27-Aug : 1,234.80
Change : 14.40 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 1991.5
Silver Price Close 27-Aug : 1903.9
Change : 87.60 or 4.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,558.00
Platinum Price Close 27-Aug : 1,531.00
Change : 27.00 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 532.00
Palladium Price Close 27-Aug : 504.00
Change : 28.00 or 5.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.73
Gold Silver Ratio 27-Aug : 64.86
Change : -2.13 or -3.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,428.18
Dow Industrial 27-Aug : 10,108.04
Change : 320.14 or 3.2%

US Dollar Index : 82.530
US Dollar Index 27-Aug : 82.940
Change : -0.41 or -0.5%



Another coincidence! Biggest egg recall for salmonella contamination contamination in history. Well, whadda y' kno! Another coincidence! Jes' so happens that in the US Senate is S.510, the hilariously-misnamed Food Safety Modernization Act that will put small farmers out of business and so make the world safe for agribusiness corporations. Hot dog! Makes you proud to be an Amurrikun when you see that sort of efficiency in our gangster government.

Look at the week. Wow. Silver jumped 4.6%, stocks jumped 3.2-4%, and gold climbed only 1.2% . Wow. That looks .. . That looks . . . Bogus.

Before I fume about what they did to gold today, let's look at that scrofulous US dollar. The dollar dropped 35.2 basis points today to life support at 82. If the dollar falls through 82 it will completely cross out any chance of a rally. Now, that might be the bottom of the fall and the end of it. If so, 'twill rise next week, probably lively. Remains to be seen. Now trading 82.053.

STOCKS made a fool out of me this week, rising to 10,428.18 today. This looks like a bear market rally, fuelled by short covering, but that can run further still, maybe to 10,700. Today it hit the 200 DMA (10,451). That makes this no more than a customary bear market rally. Make like Ulysses and lash yourself to the mast, nor heed the siren's song. Stay away from stocks.

GOLD was there, yea! With these mine own eyes I saw it trading at $1,254 and higher. Silver was near 2000c. Gold had at the New York Open fell very sharply, from 1252 to 1238, traded sideways under 1240 until ll:00, then rose like a shot to 1250. About that time the Nice Government Men kicked in --- wait, wait, did I say that? No, no, I mean -- mystery sellers sold bucket loads of gold to keep it from crossing 1250, but it kept bumptin up against tha ceiling like a kid's helium balloon in your living room. Long and short of it is, the comex gold close at $1,249.20, down $2.30 from yesterday, is one of the most bogus examples of tape painting you'll ever see.

And how do I know? How can you be so certain, smart guy? Because I was watching silver all the time, too. How much sense does it make for silver to be trading at 1998c, highest level since 2008, and gold falls backward? In a pig's eye. 'Tain't possible. Silver was flat from yesterday about 1960c at the open, traded sideways two hours, then jumped straight clean up, "somebody" bashed it, and it closed come at 1991.5c, up 27.5c.

From another viewpoint, I am not sure why I am so adamant about this being a tape-painting episode. Silver and gold just don't have the mushy action that signals a top. No, they are strong, decisive, blasting ahead. Speaking of heads, I may get mine handed to me on a platter for saying this, but I think silver and gold will rise much higher next week. Why? Because that gold/silver ratio has fallen out of that long-standing even-sided triangle. Fallen out, did you hear? Broken out to the downside, and that will not happen if silver and gold are about to faint. Just the opposite, and that move is only beginning.

Tell the punchline, Moneychanger! Here 'tis: stocks will fall next week after a little more rise. Dollar is acting like a drunk walking across a bridge. Silver and gold are breaking out into a huge rally. Least it seems that way to me.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, September 02, 2010

I Do Not Believe the Gold Price Has Finished Here

Gold Price Close Today : 1251.50
Change : 5.20 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.615
Change : 0.256 cents or 1.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1546.00
Change : 10.00 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 527.00
Change : 7.00 or 1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.80
Change : -0.575 or -0.9%

Dow Industrial : 10,320.10
Change : 50.63 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index : 82.39
Change : -0.079 or -0.1%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES blasted higher, but not quite through the old highs.

A reader chastened me for citing silver's performance in September 1979. I will take the rebuke as deserved. It was a bit over the top citing that particular instance, since that was the leading up to the blow out top in January 1980. However, I mention not in self-justification (perish the thought!) but in clarification that the silver price often or usually wallows through August and takes off into September. So the jury will please disregard, dis-remember, and dis-charge yesterday's remark, or at least reduce it by 70%.

So, much calmed down, I will talk about silver's sparkling, well-nigh eye-popping performance today. Overnight the SILVER PRICE steadily ascended from its $19.23 low to $19.50 by the New York open. At that point it leapt nearly 15c, backed off, tested that high, backed off again, and ran through it to a $19.67 high. When Comex turned off the lights the silver price had gained 25.6c to close at $19.615, its highest close since 12 May 2010 at $19.64. The silver price has pushed past its June intraday high, but not quite past the May intraday high (1981c).

Here 'tis folks, the moment of truth. The silver price either continues through this resistance and runs to new highs, or we can put on the black armbands and start crying. No, wait. This might be the top of a wave leading to a short correction not lower than $18.80. Not quite sure, but my instinct goes with higher prices tomorrow because silver was so strong today. Doesn't quite seem finished.

The GOLD PRICE high today came at $1252.88, not quite as high as yesterday's, but the Comex close was $5.20 higher at $1,251.50. No, I do not believe the gold price has finished here. This much is sure: when it passes that $1,255 last high close, nobody will want to stand in gold's way and it will run like the proverbial scalded dog. Big question remains, is this it?

The US DOLLAR drifted sideways between 82.6 and 82.3, and probably has one more leg down to 82 or 81.90. Today silver has been flirting with the 20 DMA (82.45), but without success so far. Appears to have one more little leg down left in it, probably tomorrow. Close below 81.50 forecloses chance of rally and turns dollar down.

Stocks. Hard for me stirring myself up to care, but here goes. Stocks oscillated over unchanged today from up a little to down a little until about 2:00, when they embarked on all the day's gain, 50.63 points to close the Dow at 10,320.10. S&P lagged along, rising 9,.81 to 1,090.10.
I was reading Dr. McHugh last night and he noted that this sort of sharp volatility in both directions was also seen before the big break in 1987. See www.technicalindicatorindex.com. Point is, these big lurches from up to down show confusion and weakness, not strength.

For a long time I've been warning about government trial balloons about forcing IRA and 401(k) holders to take an annuity backed by government bonds at maturity rather than a lump sum payment. My friend Pat Heller has published an article about it at http://news.coinupdate.com/us-departments-of-labor-and-treasury-schedule-hearing-on-confiscation-of-private-retirement-accounts-0431/ and you can find comments on it at http://news.coinupdate.com/gold-price-sets-end-of-month-record-0433/
I strongly recommend you read it. Note that no laws have been passed yet, but read Pat Heller's most insightful speculations about how this would play out. I believe he nails it.

I wouldn't live anywhere in the world but right here on the Top of the World Farm. This morning my son Justin pulled out of the smoker some salted ham steaks he had been smoking for two days. Imagine the deepest burgundy red, and you'll have the colour of the meat, but Oh! The taste. It can't be described.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, September 01, 2010

The Gold Price Remains Above $1,235-1238, Which is What's Needed to Stay in the Rallying-Game

Gold Price Close Today : 1244.20
Change : (4.10) or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.327
Change : (0.055) cents or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1536.00
Change : 8.00 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 520.00
Change : 115.00 or 28.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.38
Change : -0.029 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial : 10,269.47
Change : 254.74 or 2.5%

US Dollar Index : 82.47
Change : -0.631 or -0.8%

The GOLD PRICE advanced steadily overnight to $1254, then was, quite literally, slammed on the US open. Selling must have continued until 11:00 when it stopped at $1,243. Comex dropped off $4.10 to $1,244.20.

This comes as no cosmic surprise. Whoever the short sellers are -- and I forbear to name names lest I earn the dread title "conspiratorialist" which the Establishment and its scabby yellow cur running dog media use to describe anyone who disagrees with them -- would logically counterattack before the gold price makes a new all-time high. Heavens, even if it were only short sellers off the street, they would do the same. Yet the gold price remains above $1,235-1238, which is what's needed to stay in the rallying-game.

The SILVER PRICE chart looks like gold's, only better. Critical here is the silver price holding on above $19.20. You have to expect strife at old highs. Silver followed the same pattern as gold, running into mystery sellers on the open. Low came at $19.252, and Comex closed down 5.5c at $19.327.

These closes today aren't bad numbers for silver and gold prices, but remember that when you are advancing, you must keep on advancing. You can't bumble and pause long, or you stumble.
September is often a very good month for silver and gold prices. I remember 1979, when the silver price finished August about $10.00 or maybe $12.00 and by 21 January 1980 stood at $50.00. The gold price didn't slouch, either.

Stocks made me look like an idiot today, but that's okay. First, it's not hard to do, and second, I only have to wait a little while and they will drop again, making me look like an investing genius. That's the advantage of investing with the primary trend: the trend will bail out your worst timing mistakes. That 15-20 year trend is DOWN for stocks, and as time wears on, that bear will pull them down. Oh, there will be, as today, flashes of hope -- "better manufacturing news in China and the US pointed to global recovery" -- but these serve only for the bear to lure more victims into his den, there to sit until he decides to maul them.

I did, however, seriously misidentify where stocks were in their present downtrend. So where are we now? Stocks today hit their 50 day moving average (10,260) rising 254.74 and closing at 10,269.47. S&P performed similarly, rising 30.96 to 1,080.29. Twenty DMA stands at 10,300, and today's high was 10,279.08. Clearly that old resistance at 10,300 has lost none of its strength.

Odd look to today's chart, though. Lifts straight up off the open, but from about 10:00 until close doesn't move 50 points -- flatlines. Is that a complete exhaustion of buying power, or big sellers stepping in toward 10,300? Or merely a very thin market, with very nervous shorts? Whatever the cause, it is not normal trading.

Aiding stocks' rise was a weak dollar today. It made a low today at 82.194, and dropped for the day a sizeable 63.1 basis points. Trading now at 82.468. Overnight the dollar eroded from 83 to 82.2 at today's open, then bounced a bit but could reach no higher than 82.50. Today's fall took the dollar below its 20 DMA (82.37). The 200 DMA stands at 81.30, a mere 115 basis points below.

This no longer looks like a rally, unless the dollar is about to make a second touch (1st was in August) to the 200 day moving average before rallying. The dollar has been boxing here with its 50 DMA (now 82.95), unable to knock it down. The jury is still out on the dollar, but don't look for higher prices tomorrow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.