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Friday, December 31, 2010

The Gold Price New All Time High at $1,421.10, Silver Price New High Since 1980

Gold Price Close Today : 1,421.10
Gold Price Close 23-Dec : 1,380.00
Change : 41.10 or 3.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3091
Silver Price Close 23-Dec : 2931
Change : 160.00 or 5.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 45.98
Gold Silver Ratio 23-Dec : 47.08
Change : -1.11 or -2.4%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02175
Silver Gold Ratio 23-Dec : 0.02124
Change : 0.00051 or 2.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 168.35
Dow in Gold Dollars 23-Dec : $ 173.37
Change : $ (5.01) or -2.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.144
Dow in Gold Ounces 23-Dec : 8.387
Change : -0.24 or -2.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 374.42
Dow in Silver Ounces 23-Dec : 394.86
Change : -20.44 or -5.2%

Dow Industrial : 11,573.42
Dow Industrial 23-Dec : 11,573.49
Change : -0.07 or 0.0%

S&P 500 : 1,257.52
S&P 500 23-Dec : 1,256.77
Change : 0.75 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 79.173
US Dollar Index 23-Dec : 80.490
Change : -1.32 or -1.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,768.60
Platinum Price Close 23-Dec : 1,714.60
Change : 54.00 or 3.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 802.00
Palladium Price Close 23-Dec : 754.10
Change : 47.90 or 6.4%

The GOLD PRICE burst through the last high at $1,415.90, gobbled up $15.50 and closed Comex at $1,421.10, a new all-time high close. Silver added 42.2c for another new high close since 1980 at 3091c.

Minimum targets are $1,475 gold and 3400c silver. Maximum targets are $1,600 and 3700c SILVER PRICE (maybe 3900c).

Laugh at me if you like, but you will see these prices, and with your own eyes.

Today's prices are, obviously, the YEAR END PRICES. Please save these prices for your records if you need to make year end statements.

Today's meditation ponders price versus value.

Often people ask me to quote a price, and when I do, they reply tartly, "I can get it cheaper at so-and-so!" And very sweetly, I reply, "Then you ought to go buy it from them." Conversation ended.

Why? Because some folks don't understand the difference between value and price. For example, you can buy pasteurized, homogenized, completely dead generic milk at Wal-Mart for $1.50 or $2.00 a gallon, or, you can buy nutritious, living and life-giving, wholesome raw milk from your local farmer for $8.00 a gallon.

I know which is cheapest, but which is more valuable? Which do you want to drink? Which do you want your children to drink?

After burying so many corpses from customers who have been cleaned out by Goldline, numismatic boiler rooms, etc., I know that the little commission I charge is worth every cent, because if I do nothing more than keep you out of the hands of the piranhas, I will save you ten times what you pay me. Or, I will take your mess and shift you to something that will rise more quickly and add to that swapping and recover what you've lost and move you ahead of the game. Merely by guiding you to the less expensive coins I can save you $20 - $40 per ounce of gold, or $3 per ounce of silver. After 30 years dealing in gold and silver, I've learned the value of trustworthiness, and I know that the little commission I charge doesn't cost, it pays.

All sorts of Internet shops and newcomers aspire to be the Wal-Mart of gold and silver. I don't. When you buy from them, you get no information on market direction, no guidance about what is your best buy, no long term outlook, no strategy, only a price and (you hope) the goods. If price is all you want, go get it, with my blessing and no hurt feelings.

We face the same challenge on our farm, where we raise and sell grass-fed beef and lamb and pasture-raised chickens and pork. Why do we charge $3.45 a pound for chickens when it costs $0.99 at Kroger? Taste and see, and you will pay. Real food tastes so much better, and nourishes your body so much more efficiently and deeply, that it's worth what you have to pay.

Price and value aren't the same.

This self-destructive cheapness doesn't stop at food. It has teamed up with corporate greed to ship our neighbors' jobs overseas. Everybody rushes to buy junk made in China by dollar an hour sweatshop labor, never stopping to recall that our own prosperity depends on our neighbour's. We are each other's customers, and our brothers' keepers. Besides, that's the only practical course. Every time you try to get something (or somebody's labor) for nothing, you end up getting nothing for something.

John Ruskin summed it up in the 19th century, and he's still right: "There is scarcely anything in the world that some man cannot make a little worse, and sell a little more cheaply. The person who buys on price alone is this man's lawful prey."

I found a lesson years ago that delivers your mind from the fear and torture of greed, and I don't doubt that it will work for everyone. It's the only accounting system that really profits. As long as you're afraid you won't get yours, you'll end up cheating yourself.

"Give, and it shall be given unto you: good measure, pressed down, and shaken together, and running over, shall men give into your bosom. For with the same measure that you measure with it shall be measured back to you." Luke 6:38.

Now to today's markets:

Behold! In markets nothing is written in stone, so even the most reliable indicators can send false signals. However, they are called "reliable" because generally, they are.

Thus with today's higher than last high close on gold, followed by several new highs for the move for silver, the odds overwhelmingly favor much higher silver and gold prices and a rally. Might it abort? Sure, there's maybe a 5% chance of that, but a 95% chance they are moving higher. Every investor has to teach himself to go with the main chance, the primary trend, and never to draw to an inside strait, the least-likely outcome.

The US DOLLAR INDEX broke that 79.40 support today and crashed to a low of 78.775 -- ouch! It spiked to a bottom today, and climbed back out, but this probably won't last. This leaves us looking for a new target, 78.80 to 78.30, and even including the 50 DMA at 79.06. RSI and MACD are also pointing down.

What meaneth this portent? A declining dollar helps stocks and silver and gold. Many of the hopeful are counting on the presidential cycle to bail out stocks this year (they usually rise in the third year of a presidential term because the scumbag in office is trying to get prices up before his re-election bid). This time 'round they may be surprised.

Yet let's hear the bottom line: declining dollar or not, stocks remain in a primary downtrend or bear market. Therefore however much a sick dollar may help them, silver and gold (in a primary bull market or upward trend) will strongly outpace them. Proof of stocks' inability to keep pace with a hyperinflation (let alone the inflation we are witnessing) can be found in Constantino Bresciani- Turroni's classic examination of the hyperinflation in Germany. In spite of huge nominal gains then, stocks actually lost value.

Today stocks twisted in confusion. All indices but the Dow dropped, but the Dow managed to rise a magnificent 3.71 points to 11,573.42. S&P500 gave up -0.36 to land at 1,257.52.

On this day in 1781 the first "modern" bank in the US was organized by Robert Morris, the Bank of North America, by the Confederation Congress, just to prove that wherever there is a government, however weak and tottering, some bankster parasite will emerge to wrest a charter and privilege from it. The folks behind the Bank of North America, including Hamilton, wanted to make it the de facto central bank of the US, like the Bank of England, but it wasn't quite adequately capitalized. So the banksters came up with a scheme to fool people into believing in its financial soundness. They only had a few bags of silver coin, but they hired three men to hoist the bags up from the cellar in a dumb waiter. Then they would noisily unload them from the dumbwaiter onto a dolly, and just as noisily push them across the lobby of the bank for all the customers to see. It was eventually succeeded by the First Bank of the United States, having been unable to plant the eggs of its tapeworm into the national gut.

During the Twelve Days of Christmas (Christmas thru Epiphany, 6 Jan) our office will be working only four hours a day. Please be patient, leave a voice mail or send us an email at helpdesk@the-moneychanger.com.

Thanks for your understanding.

May God bless you all in 2011 and always!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, December 30, 2010

Gold Price Closed Today at $1405.06, Behold! It Held on to $1,405 Support

Gold Price Close Today : 1405.60
Change : (7.50) or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.488
Change : (0.191) cents or -0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 46.10
Change : 0.043 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02169
Change : -0.000020 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1747.10
Change : -12.10 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 787.90
Change : -6.05 or -0.8%

S&P 500 : 1,257.88
Change : -0.52 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $170.15
Change : $ 0.89 or 0.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.231
Change : 0.043 or 0.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 379.48
Change : -0.04 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial : 11,569.71
Change : -1.90 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 79.52
Change : -0.275 or -0.3%

The GOLD PRICE failed to break through the $1,415 ceiling and spent most of the day atoning for its gall. Comex lost $7.50 to close at $1,405.60. Behold! It held on to $1,405 support.

The SILVER PRICE backed off today. After trading up to 3100c (in fact, 3090c) in overnight trading (4 - 6 a.m. New York time) silver eroded to a low of 3030c around noon. Comex closed at 3048.8c, losing 19.1c. Expect one more thrust up, then a fall to about the same low or a little lower, and then another push upward begins. Trading through 3100c would end that expectation. Expect it not to do much tomorrow, but Monday or Tuesday of next week the fireworks will be lit.

As with the SILVER PRICE, the GOLD PRICE will see a little correction lasting a day or two, then begin its rise again. I have to say that the rise will be spectacular and probably short-lived.

The minority opinion in my head yesterday turned out to be right as silver and gold took a rest today. Dollar Index turned a little weaker than I expected, but still held on to crucial support. Stocks piddled.

The Euro bounced up strongly above its 20 DMA (1.3228) to close today up half a percent at 1.3291. Looks like a rally driven by short-covering since the Euro has been imprisoned in a down trend since early November.

Dollar Index made a low at 79.428, cracking crucial support but not breaking it. Trading now at 79.521 down 27.5 basis points (0.35%) but above 79.50 support. Dollar Index's 50 DMA stands at 79.06, but dipping that far before reversing would change the pattern the Dollar Index has shown since November of skiing atop its 20 DMA. Whatever this is, it's not strength and other indicators point down. Dollar had better perk up quick.

STOCKS over the past month have flattened out like those long limbs on a live oak tree. Other trees don't have the tensile strength, however, of live oaks, so when they try grow that way, their limb falls off. Stocks will, too. This is not a happy chart pattern, sort of a long narrow upward wedge, which stocks have formed below. Resolves toward the center of the earth, i.e., down. Dow today closed at 11,569.71, down 1.9. S&P500 dropped 0.52 to 1,257.88. Sounds like nobody was home on Wall Street.

A reader wrote me about the correlation between the GOLD/SILVER RATIO ratio and the S&P500. Right, it's a fairly well-known correlation: they move together. About the time the gold/silver ratio peaks you can expect stocks to peak, too. With a ratio peak due soon, what does that say about stocks' future?

During the Twelve Days of Christmas (Christmas thru Epiphany, 6 Jan) our office will be working only four hours a day. Please be patient, leave a voice mail or send us an email at helpdesk@the-moneychanger.com.

Thanks for your understanding.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Once Gold Clears $1,415.90, Who Can Stand In It's Way? Much Higher Prices Are Coming

Gold Price Close Today : 1413.10
Change : 7.90 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.679
Change : 0.382 cents or 1.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 46.06
Change : -0.320 or -0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02171
Change : 0.000150 or 0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1759.20
Change : 2.00 or 0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 793.95
Change : 7.45 or 0.9%

S&P 500 : 1,259.78
Change : 1.27 or 0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $169.48
Change : $ (0.79) or -0.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.199
Change : -0.038 or -0.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 377.63
Change : 0.27 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,585.38
Change : 9.84 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 79.83
Change : -0.535 or -0.7%

The GOLD PRICE followed through yesterday's $22.80 leap with a $7.90 skip today, closing on Comex at $1,413.10. This falls short of the last high close (and all time high close) by about $2.80, and it did clear the $1,406 resistance.

All the earmarks of a solid rise are present. Gold has only yesterday cleared its 20 DMA (1,389.58) and is only a few points from the 50 DMA (1,372.37), not high overextended high above them. MACD has turned/ is turning up and RSI is just above 50 at 59.85. These numbers point to higher prices.

Once gold clears that last high, $1,415.90, who can stand in its way? That may come tomorrow. One little hedge on that: I might be misreading the chart and this might be the end of a little move. If so, gold might correct for a couple of days, but that's the minority opinion amongst all the many voices in my head.

The SILVER PRICE chart looks a bit more like a completed move. Regardless, today to a 106.2c gain yesterday silver added another 38.2c to close at a new high for the move, 3067.9c. Don't let my argument with myself about the next couple of days mislead you: silver has broken out above its trendline and will move higher.

Above silver lies resistance from 3060 - 3068. Once silver breaks free of that, it will shoot for 3400c.

And here's a little meditation that will place that 3400c into long term perspective: we aren't even close to a bull market top yet. Not even close. We are just entering the third leg up. Much higher prices are coming.

Best buy in silver remains the US 90% silver coin, and I would stick with that.

Today the US dollar index , well, collapsed. It traded sideways and tickled 80.15 twice. On the second tickle, somebody slapped the dollar silly. Fell straight down to 79.70 in two hours, below the 20 day moving average (1st trip wire of a direction change) and through support at 80. Now peering at the longer term chart it appears that 79.50 ought to catch the dollar. It has bounced a leetle, down now only 53.5 basis points to 79.83.

What might this be? Coming off the weekend's high above 80.60 it looks like an A-B-C correction. More, it might have sketched a double bottom (floor) with 79.60 yesterday and 79.70 today. If it that -- and not a more serious trip through 79.60 to the nether regions -- then tomorrow it will not trade lower than 79.60 and in fact should advance, say up to 80 or so. Just enough to show that it hasn't given up.

Backing off for a longer veiw, the dollar bottomed in November at 75.63 and has been climbing since then, but with a questionable character. Is that a rally, or only a correction of the long foregoing fall? So far the 20 DMA has served as the undercarriage for the rise, so yesterday's fall thru the 20 DMA might mean lower prices for the dollar.

Market will have to tell us tomorrow.

EURO peeked through its 20 DMA (1.3234) today, and may be rallying a bit.

STOCKS made new highs for the move but couldn't hold on to the gains. Dow's high came at 11,625 but it closwed at 11,585.38, up only 9.34. S&P 500 closed at 1,259.78, up 1.27.

If I owned stocks -- and I don't and won't -- that would have left me nervous, breaking into new high territory and falling back for a small gain. Tastes too much like a key reversal. Stock buyers had better enjoy the next two days.

During the Twelve Days of Christmas (Christmas thru Epiphany, 6 Jan) our office will be working only four hours a day. Please be patient, leave a voice mail or send us an email at helpdesk@the-moneychanger.com.

Thanks for your understanding.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Gold Price Headed Higher, Must Close Above $1,416 Must Not Drop Below $1,385

Gold Price Close Today : 1405.20
Change : 22.80 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.297
Change : 1.062 cents or 3.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 46.38
Change : -0.905 or -1.9%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02156
Change : 0.000413 or 2.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1757.20
Change : 21.60 or 1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 786.50
Change : 17.35 or 2.3%

S&P 500 : 1,258.51
Change : 0.97 or 0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $170.29
Change : $ (2.48) or -1.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.238
Change : -0.120 or -1.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 382.07
Change : 0.54 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,575.54
Change : 20.51 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index : 80.37
Change : 0.007 or 0.0%

I hope each of you had an unforgettable Christmas, and wish you all a merry Christmastide (there are 9 days left) and a good slide into the New Year.

The reasons given for today's SILVER PRICE and GOLD PRICE jump by the official state news agency -- Whoops! Sorry, sorry, I meant the US corporate media -- was that when China raised interest rates over the weekend (remember those government surprise parties I mentioned last week) silver and gold were supposed to go down. Yesterday they were flat, but today, in the absence of their fall, all the shorts (who had sold gold anticipating the Chinese interest rate reduction would pull the rug out from under gold) got caught, well, short. By the time a much bruised Comex closed, gold had risen $22.80 to $1,405.20 and silver to 3029.7c, up 106.2c.

Where does that leave us? Gold merely rose to the resistance ceiling at $1,406, but not to the last high at $1,415 (6 Dec). Silver, however, smashed its 7 Dec high of 2974.80 to reach a new all-time high for this bull market at 3029.7c. GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell to a new low for this move at 46.38.

The Nice Government Men must be sweating bullets and razors. They like tidy endings to years, because so many calculations are made from those year-end figure, and it appears that instead of keeping gold as low as possible to year end, the correction may have ended and silver and gold will rise -- are rising -- immediately.

Options also expired today, another force moving metals upward.

On the five day chart the GOLD PRICE has clearly broken out to the upside, from a double-bottom base at $1,370 last Thursday and over the weekend, and cleared all resistance between $1,385 and $1,406. Can't say anything about that except, "Headed higher." Of course, gold must confirm by closing above $1,416 and must not drop below $1,385, but other than that, "Headed higher."

The SILVER PRICE 5-day chart mirrors gold, but with different numbers. It broke through resistance at 2950c and ran to a new high at 3029.7c. Rising 106.2c in a day pretty well points to a strong breakout. 3400c is my next target, and might mark the top for the move, which points to a $1,475 - $1,530-ish target for gold.

It appears that the correction has ended for silver and gold and that the last leg up I have been expecting for this intermediate move (NOT ultimate move for the bull market) has arrived. Peak should hit sometime from mid- to end-January.

Chinese interest rate reduction announcement did nothing to the US dollar index. It barely moved today, up 7 basis points to 80.373.

Stocks are piddling, or more likely, stalling. Dow closed up 20.51 points today at 11,575.54 while the S&P500 rose a gigantic 0.97 to 1,258.51. This is as good as it gets for stocks. After the new year begins, sobriety and reality will once again take hold, and that can't bring joy to Wall Street.

Readers have asked me why I quote silver as I do, in cents rather than dollars. Answer? Because that's the way the Comex quotes it. If it makes you queasy, just move the decimal point left two places.

During the Twelve Days of Christmas (Christmas thru Epiphany, 6 Jan) our office will be working only four hours a day. Please be patient, leave a voice mail or send us an email at helpdesk@the-moneychanger.com.

Thanks for your understanding.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, December 24, 2010

Silver and Gold Price Heavily Undervalued, How Far Can They Rise?

Gold Price Close Today : 1,380.00
Gold Price Close 17-Dec : 1,378.60
Change : 1.40 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 2931
Silver Price Close 17-Dec : 2911.3
Change : 19.70 or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.08
Gold Silver Ratio 17-Dec : 47.35
Change : -0.27 or -0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02124
Silver Gold Ratio 17-Dec : 0.02112
Change : 0.00012 or 0.6%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 173.37
Dow in Gold Dollars 17-Dec : $ 172.32
Change : $ 1.05 or 0.6%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.387
Dow in Gold Ounces 17-Dec : 8.336
Change : 0.05 or 0.6%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 394.86
Dow in Silver Ounces 17-Dec : 394.73
Change : 0.13 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial : 11,573.49
Dow Industrial 17-Dec : 11,491.91
Change : 81.58 or 0.7%

S&P 500 : 1,256.77
S&P 500 17-Dec : 1,243.91
Change : 12.86 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index : 80.490
US Dollar Index 17-Dec : 80.360
Change : 0.13 or 0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,714.60
Platinum Price Close 17-Dec : 1,704.00
Change : 10.60 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 754.10
Palladium Price Close 17-Dec : 741.85
Change : 12.25 or 1.7%

Sorry that I missed sending y'all a commentary yesterday evening. I simply ran out of daylight, and had a supper engagement I dared not miss. My wife would have thrashed me with briers had I been late.

My ever-vigilant friend and ready critic CR wrote -- not steamily but emphatically -- to rebuke me for writing that the government and central bank price suppression scheme was not working.

I take the rebuke, and make my apologetic correction. I was looking at the short term when I said the scheme to suppress the SILVER PRICE and the GOLD PRICE was not working. While techincally that is true -- prices are rising in spite of all their manipulations -- we don't know how much faster they might have risen had markets not been manipulated, or might be rising now absent the manipulation.

We only know that the suppression is not working. Again, while that might be technically true, it might be efficient enough for the manipulators' purposes. Having tortured myself by reading tedious pounds of their turgid writing -- pick up Foreign Affairs some time -- I have come to understand that from their standpoint, it is enough to win at the end of the day. They really don't concern themselves with silly worries like "the dollar's ultimate demise if inflation continues." They win if they get to 5:00 p.m. without the world exploding. Thus if they can keep silver and from running wild and scaring the populace out of their fiat private money, they have won for the day. To stop a panic, they need only stop it today. As Keynes famously said, sneering at the necessity of long term thinking, "In the long run we're all dead." For them, victory in the short run is victory.

But CR was even more correct from a long term standpoint. When the banking cartel conspiracy -- and doubt not that when any group of men plots to seize control of the monetary system and the economy to loot it systematically, that IS a conspiracy, and that did happen and continues daily -- they had to drive public money -- silver and gold -- out of circulation and replace it with their private money. The arrogant gall of this, overturning the right and practice of all human history, steals one's breath. Yet have they so well succeeded that in this world not a single country can be found where silver and gold are in daily use as money.

More than that, they have effected a collossal depression of silver and gold prices. Dig into history, look for prices and wages, and the numbers are so low you cannot grasp them. Here is a single example.

In 1850 the master of the lighthouse at Hunting Island, South Carolina, earned $500 a year. He had charge of the island, three families, and all the installation and buildings. Let's guess that job today would bring $80,000 a year.

At that time $500 equalled 24.1875 oz. of gold, but today at $1,400 an ounce, that lighthouse master's yearly salary would equal only $33,852, less than half what we would expect.

Silver's undervaluation is even worse. $500 then equalled 386.7 oz. At $30 an ounce, the master's salary was worth only $11,601 today, about an eighth of what we expect.

See how undervalued the SILVER PRICE and the GOLD PRICE is? How far down the conspiracy has depressed their value by diluting the world's money supply with their private fiat money? Right now the market is re-adjusting silver and gold upward, and remember: markets always overshoot, so from this extreme undervaluation, before this bull market ends, both silver and gold will reach extreme overvaluation.

And that's all I've got to say about that.

Yesterday silver, gold, and the US dollar all dropped. Stocks were mixed, with the Dow up slightly while all other indices fell slightly. (Prices above are for 23 December, not today.)

What does it mean? Technically, not much, because it most likely arises from traders pulling out of the market ahead of the Christmas holiday, taking off positions so they won't have to worry about them over the long weekend. Remember, governments love to throw surprise parties over long weekends. You'll begin to get some idea of where markets are headed next week, but even that may be deceiving. When the big cats are away, the little mice on the trading floor like to play, running markets up and down to reap some day-trading profits. It's activity meaningless to the longer term.

Notice at least on the scoreboard above that silver and gold and the dollar advanced over the last week. That's an uptrend, even with the metals' little fall yesterday.

Unless silver and gold pull some remarkable trick on Monday, I won't send a commentary, but will resume on Tuesday, 28 December. For this Christmas, set aside sorrow and mourning and fear, and rejoice in a blessed and merry Christmas!

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Gold Price Floated Between $1,382.65 and $1,386.80, Must Not Close Below $1,380

Gold Price Close Today : 1386.80
Change : (1.40) or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.367
Change : (0.009) cents or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.22
Change : -0.033 or -0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02118
Change : 0.000015 or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1723.65
Change : 12.75 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 750.20
Change : 8.20 or 1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,258.84
Change : 4.24 or 0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $172.31
Change : $ 0.58 or 0.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.335
Change : 0.028 or 0.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 393.62
Change : 0.90 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial : 11,559.49
Change : 26.33 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index : 80.63
Change : -0.088 or -0.1%

The GOLD PRICE kept on treading water today, yea, with less bobbing than yesterday. Floated between $1,382.65 and $1,386.80. This narrowing range only promises that the eventual breakout will be violent. Gold must not close now below $1,380. Overhead $1,392 blocks the way.

The SILVER PRICE didn't feel up to pioneering leadership today, so merely plodded along behind in gold's row, bounded by 2916c and 2945.3c. Comex closed down a laughable 9/10 of a cent at 2936.7. Nothing happening there.

Accident vs. Substance. Folks keep on hounding me about the Internet campaign to break JP Morgan -- supposedly short tons of silver -- by buying silver. Theory is that buying will so press the market that JPM will go belly up, just punishment for shorting silver and suppressing the price, and silver will skyrocket.

Now whether JP Morgan is as short as these folks claim I am not informed enough to judge. I doubt not that the US government beginning about 1995 acted through intermediary bullion banks to suppress gold and so lower the long term interest rate and attempt to create -- yawn! -- perpetual prosperity, like numerous other megalomanics in history. Of course, the veriest parvenu knows that gold cannot be suppressed without suppressing silver also, because a declining gold price against rising silver (a falling gold/ silver ratio) would give away their game. Thus I doubt not that the same bullion banks acted to suppress silver. Who was involved other than the Nice Government Men I leave to those more knowledgeable than I.

It goes without saying (but of course I will say by apophasis) that after 2001 the price suppression scheme has been as notoriously incompetent as any other government scheme, suppressing gold from $252 to $1,400 and silver from 400c to 3000c. The "suppression" has only served to raise the price a little faster, it seems.

Yet the true-believing fervor around this JPM business prompts me to point out the difference between accidents and substance, or, as the Germans might say, Schein und Sein, appearance and reality.

Accidents are all those chance characteristics surrounding substance. In the 1970s silver bull market "the world was running out of silver" and "the Indian silver hoard was about to come onto the market/the Indians would soak up the excess." Today it's JPM. Every bull or bear market spawns dozens of meretricious reasons to explain why the market is trending up or down, but most of these are just the accidents of the day, the trappings that shroud the market. They never are the motor that drives it: that is the substance.

What is the substance of a bull market in silver and gold, the motor that powers it? Monetary demand, arising from fear of fiat currencies.

Why am I soaking up your valuable time with this discussion? Simply because every one of us who wants to think clearly must learn to distinguish between Schein and Sein, between accident and substance. Otherwise we will become the ready victims of every enthusiasm, fanaticism, and hysteria that comes along.

It is enough to identify the primary trend, and to identify its motor. Regardless of accidents -- and there are always plenty of accidents, persuasive and urgent -- that bull or bear market will unfold in pretty much the same way, with its own peculiarities ("accidents") of course, as most other markets. It doesn't pay to let accidents distract your attention from the big picture. In other words, keep your eye on the motor, not what brand of oil filter is installed on it.

Now, before you write me a steaming e-mail about how I am aiding and abetting the enemy and how stupid I am, go back and read what I wrote. I did not deny the price suppression, I only question its effectiveness, and deny that is the motive power of this bull market. Is it a crime? Sure, but a hilariously incompetent one. Evil is merely silly, never grand, never omnipotent, but it can kill you, like measles.

TODAY nothing much happened at all.

The US DOLLAR INDEX danced sideways again, between 80.281 and 80.781. Clearly, 80.80 blocks its road, but the stall probably arises from the looming Christmas holiday. Who wants to take a big position before a 3-day weekend, over which anything at all might happen?

The DOW today scratched together 26.33 points and rose to 11,559.49. S&P picked up 4.24 and toted up the day at 1,258.84. No change here, no improvement: outlook grim, but "there are people who don't know and you can't tell 'em."

MARKETS are sleeping ahead of the Christmas holiday. Expect no big action before St. John's Day, maybe Holy Innocents (28 Dec.).

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, December 21, 2010

All the Gold Price Needs To Do Is Not Drop, That Shows it's Planning Another Advance

Gold Price Close Today : 1388.20
Change : 2.70 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.376
Change : 0.041 cents or 0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.26
Change : 0.026 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02116
Change : -0.000012 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1723.60
Change : 12.70 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 754.50
Change : 12.50 or 1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,254.60
Change : 7.52 or 0.6%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.74
Change : $ 0.50 or 0.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.308
Change : 0.024 or 0.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 392.60
Change : 1.87 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 11,533.16
Change : 55.03 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index : 80.69
Change : 0.064 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE really wasn't stirring itself up to do much of anything today, snoozing ahead of the Christmas holidays. It couldn't pierce that roughly $1,388 resistance, but it did bolt one time today to $1,392, right on the open, then just as speedily was slapped winded, plumb to $1,381.50 in about 10 minutes. Comex closed at $1,388.20, up $2.70. In the aftermarket it edged down about $3.

This doesn't inspire cheering celebrations in the street, but it is adequate for gold. Yes, all it needs to do right now is not drop, and that shows it is correcting sideways and planning another advance. Gold must remain above $1,360, and overhead must clear resistance at $1,392 and $1,406. I don't expect much to happen between now and St. John's Day (Monday, 27 Dec). Unless the natives on the trading floor get restless the week after Christmas and want to scalp some easy profits by running the market up and then down, next week promises quiet as well.

The SILVER PRICE is treading water like gold. Now, since last Thursday it has established an uptrend (higher lows) but has also stalled at 2950c. Today it traded range-bound between 2940c and 2920c, with the exception of a very brief high spike to 2955c and a very brief low spike to 2905c.

This suffices. 'Tis enough, for the time being, for silver merely to avoid stumbling, and to rest for another footrace. It merely needs to avoid closing below 2920c. If it clears 2955c it will run again at the 3000c door.

I continue to expect that silver and gold have one more rally leg up that will top by end-January. Yes, keep on accumulating silver and gold.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO today gave us no opening to execute swaps out of US 90% silver coin into gold, but I expect that ratio will drop when the rally starts and give us the chance to execute the swaps at a little lower rate. That takes the sting out of the large discount on US 90% right now.

For those of y'all who believe in Santa Claus, the stock market broke to a slight new high today. The Dow added 55.03 to end at 11,533.16. S&P500 gained 7.52 and ended 1,254.60.

The Dow has drawn out what is either an ascending wedge, building for a downside break out, or a flat-topped triangle, which breaks out upside. I don't know which way it will break out, but will tire y'all out by re-iterating how little I trust stocks, since (1) they are locked in a bear market for at least another 3 years, and (2) there is no economic reason to justify buying them since the depression is far from over.

But if y'all just want to watch your money evaporate, go ahead and buy 'em.

The US DOLLAR INDEX underwent a tough day. It pushed against 80.40 resistance and dropped as low as 80.243. Every time it tried to climb to its knees, somebody knocked it down again, but with one foot on an 80.243 low and one on an 80.28 low, the buck roused itself, grabbed the ladder, and climbed rung by rugn to 80.823. End of the day found it at 80.692, up only 6.4 basis points, but clearly that little increase doesn't reflect the dollar's resilience today.

Yes, it's still scrofulous, but it is rallying. For the nonce.

EURO closed below its 200 day moving average today, greatly increasing the pull of gravity.

During the Twelve Days of Christmas (Christmas thru Epiphany, 6 Jan) our office will be working only four hours a day. Please be patient, leave a voice mail or send us an email at helpdesk@the-moneychanger.com

Thanks for your understanding.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, December 20, 2010

The Gold Price Rose on Comex Today $6.90 to $1,385.50 Fine, That's All it Needed to Do

Gold Price Close Today : 1385.50
Change : 6.90 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.335
Change : 0.222 cents or 0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.23
Change : -0.123 or -0.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02117
Change : 0.000055 or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1710.90
Change : 13.80 or 0.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 742.00
Change : -5.20 or -0.7%

S&P 500 : 1,247.08
Change : 3.17 or 0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.26
Change : $ (1.05) or -0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.284
Change : -0.051 or -0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 391.28
Change : -0.50 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,478.13
Change : -13.78 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index : 80.62
Change : 14.860 or 22.6%

The GOLD PRICE rose on Comex today $6.90 to $1,385.50 Fine, that's all it needed to do. On the five day chart that leaves behind double V-bottoms on Thursday and Friday, a sort of shoulder last Wednesday with a bottom about $1,375, and a matching shoulder traced out today with a V-bottom of its own at $1,375. Gold has done exactly what it ought to have done. Resistance lies a little above where we are right now, maybe $1,370. Tomorrow maybe gold pierces that, maybe not. Maybe trades sideways another day. Okay still.

The SILVER PRICE on Comex rose a respectable 22.2c to close at 2933.5c. Silver has also built a sort of head-and-shouldersy pattern typical of bottoms. Now I'd like to see it trade sideways a bit in a long narrow triangle. Overhead resistance closest in the road is 2940c.

So far silver and gold are behaving consistently with my interpretation of bottoms last Thursday. Closes below 2840c and $1,362 would gainsay that.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today solidified its gains by packing in 14.86 basis points and overcoming that 80.40 resistance. Dollar is on its way higher. Don't stand in its way arguing with it.

Also, don't confuse what this means. It is no more than the color rising in a dying man's cheeks due to his fever. It ain't a sign of health, merely the progression of the disease.

STOCKS made a weird turn again today. All the indices closed marginally higher while the Dow dropped 13.768 points to 11,478.13. On the other hand the S&P 4500 rose 3.17 to 1,247.08. Both sides cannot be right.

Somebody was ragging me for missing the "great rally" in stocks last year and a half. Look, compare, consider, how much better we have done with silver. Compare also that stocks are in a bear market rally, rallying against the trend and that only with periodic infusions of buying power from the Nice Government Men. SILVER and GOLD, on the other hand, are rallying in bull market. Stocks will end in tears and hand-wringing, silver and gold in joy and higher prices. Can't see it yet, but it's already written in the books.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, December 17, 2010

Will the Gold Price Recover for Another Leg Up Before Entering a Lengthy Correction? I Think So

Gold Price Close Today : 1,378.60
Gold Price Close 9-Dec : 1,392.00
Change : -13.40 or -1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 2911.3
Silver Price Close 9-Dec : 2878.9
Change : 32.40 or 1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.35
Gold Silver Ratio 9-Dec : 48.35
Change : -1.00 or -2.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02112
Silver Gold Ratio 9-Dec : 0.02068
Change : 0.00044 or 2.1%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 172.32
Dow in Gold Dollars 9-Dec : $ 168.85
Change : $ 3.47 or 2.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.336
Dow in Gold Ounces 9-Dec : 8.168
Change : 0.17 or 2.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 394.73
Dow in Silver Ounces 9-Dec : 394.94
Change : -0.21 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,491.91
Dow Industrial 9-Dec : 11,370.06
Change : 121.85 or 1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,243.91
S&P 500 9-Dec : 1,233.00
Change : 10.91 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 80.360
US Dollar Index 9-Dec : 80.059
Change : 0.30 or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,704.00
Platinum Price Close 9-Dec : 1,678.50
Change : 25.50 or 1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 741.85
Palladium Price Close 9-Dec : 737.60
Change : 4.25 or 0.6%

For the week the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE gave contradictory results, while stocks rose 1% and platinum and palladium rose. The US dollar index rose significantly, though slightly.

Silver is fighting, gold is fighting, but will they recover for another leg up before entering a lengthy correction? I think so.

Today painted out another V-bottom for the day at $1,364.70. This looks like a double bottom with yesterday's $1,361.30 low. Resistance overhead lies around $1,378. Comex GOLD PRICE closed near the high at $1,378.60, up $8.20. To advance from here or hold this place, gold must not dip below $1,370. Looking up, gold's hurdles appear at $1,380, then $1,395 and $1,405. A close through $1,350 would send gold tumbling. Bear in mind that the coming Christmas holiday will dampen gold activity next week as traders flatten out positions before the holiday and stay home the following week.

Mmmmm . . .That SILVER PRICE chart charms me. Yesterday silver left a V-bottom at 2829c. That appeared to have ended the correction. Today silver confirmed that by falling to 2863c. How does that confirm a bottom? Simple. On the five day chart silver trended down from Tuesday through Thursday. Draw a trendline across those tops, and you will discover that silver today proved that trendline and its new uptrend by trading back to that trendline for a final kiss good-bye, posting a double bottom around 2865c, then climbing. Comex close found silver way up, 35.6c, and over 2900c at 2911.3c. Having revisited that 20 DMA support that has held silver up since August, silver now appears ready to challenge 2940c and 2990c. Momentum indicators are mixed. RSI isn't bad but the MACD is iffy.

Bottom line? It appears -- unless gainsaid by closes below 2800 and $1,350 -- that silver and gold will make one last run up before they rest for six to 18 months. It might be spectacular, and should come soon.

STOCKS today pulled an odd step. Most indices rose slightly, while the Dow sank 7.34 points to close at 11,491.91. S&P500 rose 1.04 to 1,243.91. Daily charts look nothing the same. Dow plunged early in the day, rose to unchanged by 2:00, then fell again into the close. Nasdaq rose all day while the S&P500 rallied big about the time the Dow was stumbling. Generally that sort of confusion doesn't come before strength, but you ought to have long ago sold all your stocks anyway, sharply dampening your interest in whatever they do.

The US DOLLAR INDEX finished its correction before New York opened for business this morning, hit a low at 79.554, lower than I expected it to fall. Nothing deterred, the dollar roared out of that low to 80.60, but fell back a little below that weighty 80.40 support/resistance. Trading now at 80.36, the dollar index netted an additional 17.9 basis points today.

Today's performance, placed against the longer term backdrop, makes a persuasive argument that the Dollar bottomed back in November at 75.63 (intraday). Rally should carry the dollar at least to 82.15, the halfway mark of its fall from the June 88.71 high. But if the dollar climbs above its 200 DMA (now 81.71), it ought at least reach the last high at 83.56, not far from the 61.8% correction level at 83.71. Either way, for now 'tis enough to know that the dollar is headed up. Only a close below 78.80 would argue against that direction.

The Dollar is hinting that markets are about to flip-flop. Those that for several months have been rising on dollar weakness -- stocks, silver, gold, commodities -- are about to be whipped by a rising dollar. That argues that tops are near -- within a month or so -- for those markets while the dollar will rally for some time.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, December 16, 2010

If Today Marked the Bottom of the Gold Price Decline, Then Tomorrow it Ought Not Drop Through $1,365

Gold Price Close Today : 1370.40
Change : (15.10) or -1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 28.757
Change : (0.468) cents or -1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.65
Change : 0.246 or 0.5%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02098
Change : -0.000109 or -0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1698.70
Change : 1.60 or 0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 739.75
Change : -7.45 or -1.0%

S&P 500 : 1,242.87
Change : 7.64 or 0.6%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.46
Change : $ 2.53 or 1.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.391
Change : 0.122 or 1.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 399.88
Change : 1.52 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial : 11,499.25
Change : 41.78 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.04
Change : -0.218 or -0.3%

The SILVER PRICE nearly fulfilled my expectations today, falling as low as 2829c but not quite touching the 20 DMA (2816c) and not even approaching the 2800c I thought we might see.

Midday silver made a V-bottom, then climbed off that bottom to 2880 -2890 now. Comex closed down 46.8c at 2875.7.

The trading from Tuesday thru today appears on a five day chart to have finished an orderly correction. This will be confirmed if silver remains above 2870c tomorrow, and climbs. Resistance above lurks at 2920c, 2940c, and of course 3000c. Close below 2870c gainsays optimism.

Ut argentum, ut aurum. As silver, so gold today. Five day GOLD PRICE chart looks about the same, but the bounce off the V-bottom at 1361.30 wasn't quite as vigorous. On Comex gold lost $15.10 to end at $1,370.40. Yesterday I was expecting gold to hit the 50 DMA ($1,368.50) and it pierced that and rebounded.

If today really marked the bottom of gold's decline, then tomorrow it ought not drop through $1,365, and must not close down there. Much better would be a close above $1,380 resistance.

I saw that gold today at $1,368 and I bought both silver and gold. Whether they rocket up out of this decline or travel sideways a few days makes no difference, I believe both are building for another rise which will carry silver to 3400c and gold to $1,475 or even $1600. This will unfold fast and furious, and blow out by mid-January most likely. Remember that next week falls Christmas, so not too much should happen then. Week after Christmas sometimes is light, but often turns crazy.

I don't want y'all to let this US DOLLAR INDEX out of your mind. Its performance will largely determine other markets' performances in the next 6 - 12 months. It has pretty well exhausted itself to the floor while other markets are near exhaustion at the ceiling. Get ready for them to swap directions for a while.

Correcting dollar index today was yet strong enough on the re-bound wave to make a high slightly above the Wednesday high. Only a garlicky market does that.

Ceiling over the Dollar Index is 80.40. It really must not drop much below 80, a few basis points only, or it would negate my outlook. Today it lost 21.8 basis points to end at 80.04.

Time out for a definitional footnote. Some nervous readers keep misconstruing what I mean by "final," "peak," and suchlike words. "Final" means "final" except when it means "final for the nonce." When I believe that we are reaching the final final peak, I will not keep it a secret, I promise. I'll scream like a hog with a hangnail. However, that final peak lies years in the future, three at least and probably more. So relax, open another bag of chips, and keep sitting on you silver and gold.

STOCKS today rose, proving that the world has not yet run out of easy marks. Dow added 41.78 points to 11,499.25 and the S&P500 rose 7.64 to 1,242.87. I still await a large and grisly break in stocks, but really don't have a dog in that fight because I wouldn't buy stocks if they were giving away toasters with them. As the aposematic poison dart frog is to herptiles, so are stocks to investments. Not cuddly.

Speaking of earthquakes, one occurred in my life on 16 December 1967: I married my wife Susan. Trees were knocked down, riverbanks collapsed, church bells rang, my life has never been the same, and gets better all the time. In case you are mathematically inclined, we got married when I was 7 and she was 10.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Gold Price Won't Dip Lower Than $1,365 or $1,350, Buy Anywhere in There

Gold Price Close Today : 1385.70
Change : (17.90) or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.225
Change : (0.534) cents or -1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.41
Change : 0.249 or 0.5%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02109
Change : -0.000111 or -0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1697.10
Change : 1.30 or 0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.20
Change : -8.80 or -1.2%

S&P 500 : 1,235.23
Change : -6.36 or -0.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $170.92
Change : $ 1.92 or 1.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.268
Change : 0.093 or 1.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 392.04
Change : -0.58 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,457.47
Change : -19.07 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 80.24
Change : 0.877 or 1.1%

The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE answered my query from yesterday by falling hard. US Dollar avenged itself on those currencies who have been kicking sand in its face and calling it a 98 lb. weakling. Stocks, I think, broke.

Silver and gold op'ed the day in weakness and kept on getting weaker. That hints they may dip even deeper tomorrow.

In New York the GOLD PRICE dropped off a cliff at the open from 1395 to 1384 in a little more than an hour. It tried to rally but couldn't rise above 1392, then steadily eroded the day away. At Comex close gold had given up $17.90 to $1,385.70. In the aftermarket it kept on falling to $1,379.90. It's a good guess this weakness will continue tomorrow, maybe breaking the last low at $1,372 and falling to the 50 DMA at $1,368. A real scare would carry slightly through the 50 DMA to $1,350 or so.

Right now I am expecting that the present correction will not reach lower than $1,365 or $1,350, and would buy anywhere in there. Then gold may trade sideways a few days, maybe a number of days, before picking up its upward climb again. In the plainest English, I don't believe we have seen the peak of this long move yet, although that probably will not come before January.

If that's correct, the GOLD/SILVER RATIO should make a new low by a couple of points, drifting down to perhaps 45.5. I would swap silver for gold at any spot ratio between 47.50 and 45.50.

The SILVER PRICE began the day around 2940c and about NÉE open it was still at 2930c. About that time it stumbled to 2885, rose and climbed back to 2940, then fell off the rest of the day. Comex close found it 53.4c shorter at 2922.50, but the damage didn't stop there. Aftermarket dragged it below 2900c to 2880c.

What's to come? Here's a guess: silver drops tomorrow slightly below the 20 DMA at 2816 and even breaks 2800c and scares everybody to death. Then it trades sideways a while before lifting off again for the final leg up.

Today the dollar slapped the nose off the euro. Euro fell 1.01% to 1.3218, pushed below its 20 DMA and nearly to its 200 DMA (1.3126). So much for scrofulous euro replacing the scrofulous dollar.

Tuesday saw the US DOLLAR INDEX drop to 78.80 in a V-bottom, recover and shoot to 79.65. Today it launched from that pad, withstood an attack that drove it back to 79.46, then fought back and soared to a high of 80.284. Last traded at 80.244, showing a gain of 87.7 basis points, a high jump by the dollar's usual standards. Resistance to be now becomes 80.30.

Today's jump carries the dollar nearly to the last high at 80.40 and above its 20 DMA. A mere 10 basis points tomorrow carries it above that last high and breeds the assumption that the dollar has turned up again. Of course, it must confirm that. Dollar appears to be ready to rally for a time.

When I say that the Dow looks like rags hung out to dry on a line on a windy day, y'all have to see that in your mind's eye. If you look at today's charts for the Dow and S&P500 at www.nasdaq.com you'll see what I mean, a ragged edge above the line here and another below there. Dow still did better than the Nasdaq and SYP500, which just fell down the hill at 11:00 and never stopped rolling. Dow lost 19.07 to end at 11,457.47 while the S&P 500 was robbed of 6.36 points to 1,235.23. Soon, soon, one day soon will come a weighty plunge that will have investors weeping, wailing, and gnashing teeth even at Christmastide. Ain't no Santa Claus on Wall Street.

Miserable weather here this evening, freezing rain has smothered everything. Mercy! Avoiding this stuff is one of the chief reasons I don't live in Minnesota, and here it is chasing me!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Gold Price Barely Pierced it's 20 DMA and Bounced Up, Closing Up at $1,403.60

Gold Price Close Today : 1395.80
Change : 6.30 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.759
Change : 0.160 cents or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 46.90
Change : -0.041 or -0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02132
Change : 0.000018 or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1707.90
Change : 12.10 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 760.55
Change : 4.55 or 0.6%

S&P 500 : 1,241.59
Change : 1.13 or 0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $169.02
Change : $ (0.04) or 0.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.177
Change : -0.002 or 0.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 385.65
Change : 1.59 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial : 11,476.54
Change : 47.98 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 79.40
Change : 0.112 or 0.1%

Both the GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE show five day charts that clearly depict a five wave advance from the Friday low -- one that topped early today. Rest of today was passed in an A-B-C correction, but whether the C finished or not, I can't make up my mind.

Looking at a longer term chart doesn't clear much up. Silver hammered at 30, but has it really done enough penance to be released to run wild again? And here's something spooky. Since the beginning of October silver has been cycling from low to low every 8 to 11 days. Looks odd, awfully regular. Don't know what that means.

Back to what we do know. The SILVER PRICE bounced off its 20 day moving average (now 2800c) and has climbed from that 2797c intraday low to 2975.9c on today's Comex close, adding another 16c today. Yesterday it added 102.3c!

Proportionately the longer term GOLD PRICE chart doesn't charm me quite as much as silver's, but it's strong, too. Gold barely pierced its 20 DMA (1378.65 today), and bounced up. Today the Comex bogged down and closed up $6.30 to $1,403.60, hitting that $1,405 resistance area we all know and love.

The Spot GOLD/SILVER RATIO remains below my 47.5 target, closing today at 46.90, but you won't get very close to that trading physicals because wholesalers are discounting the silver, especially 90% coin. It's hard for me to swallow that the Ratio's indecision will last much longer, because it simply never does at peaks. Either it will rise or fall another jump, maybe to 45.5. If so, that says silver and gold will rise further before they peak. All this clearly reveals -- without details of course -- a sort of controlled panic behind the scenes, people quietly packing up their money and leaving the fiat dollar, euro, and yen behind. Serious money is pouring into silver and gold.

The US Dollar index crawled and scratched to just over 80 (80.08) on Friday, but on Monday promptly fell 76 basis points, puking back it gains and much more besides. Today it recovered 11.2 basis points to reach 79.396, but this inspireth no one.

The mere propinquity of the 200 DMA (79.76) was enough to make the Dollar faint. Now the scrofulous dollar has established a down trend with lower highs, one lower low, and what appears to be another shortly arriving. 50 DMA lies at 78.33, and one might conceive (if one were the sort who draws to inside straights) that the dollar might stop there. It had better, or twill drop to 78, maybe 76 or lower. Euro fell today but chart has the look of a rally.

STOCKS today rose again. The Dow somewhere found 47.98 points to close 11,476.54. S&P 500, by no means as enthusiastic, added 1.13 to 1,241.59.

No doubt there are many (considering what they pay them on Wall Street) who are predicting a recovery in stocks. And they are right, if you are willing to wait long enough, say 5 to 8 years. All I can see is a double top, and what might be the first half of a key reversal, with today's break into a new high for the move and rather dramatic fall off to a lower close. Yet that doesn't QUITE qualify as a Key Reversal, because it didn't close lower than yesterday. Still, it's weak. Stocks, remember, are to investments as deadly nightshade is to gift bouquets.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, December 09, 2010

The Gold Price Could Drop as Low as $1,230, Must Rise Above $1,430.60 to Confirm Continued Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1,392.00
Gold Price Close 3-Dec : 1,405.40
Change : -13.40 or -1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 2878.9
Silver Price Close 3-Dec : 2924.1
Change : -45.20 or -1.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 48.35
Gold Silver Ratio 3-Dec : 48.06
Change : 0.29 or 0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02068
Silver Gold Ratio 3-Dec : 0.02081
Change : -0.00012 or -0.6%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 168.85
Dow in Gold Dollars 3-Dec : $ 167.42
Change : $ 1.43 or 0.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.168
Dow in Gold Ounces 3-Dec : 8.099
Change : 0.07 or 0.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 394.94
Dow in Silver Ounces 3-Dec : 389.25
Change : 5.69 or 1.5%

Dow Industrial : 11,370.06
Dow Industrial 3-Dec : 11,382.09
Change : -12.03 or -0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,233.00
S&P 500 3-Dec : 1,224.71
Change : 8.29 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index : 80.059
US Dollar Index 3-Dec : 79.147
Change : 0.91 or 1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,678.50
Platinum Price Close 3-Dec : 1,729.80
Change : -51.30 or -3.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 737.60
Palladium Price Close 3-Dec : 764.25
Change : -26.65 or -3.5%

The GOLD PRICE spike low to $1,372 yesterday seems to have been confirmed, at least for the time being. In a thoroughly unexcited performance gold moved sideways today, never lower than $1,380.40 and never higher than $1,394. Alternative interpretation is that gold kissed back to the $1,390-ish level before dropping further.

Hark! Today gold did bounce off its 20 day moving average ($1,376.67), a heartening sign, but still hovers not too far from the 50 DMA (1362.60).

Gold has fallen into a tight place, with what might well be a head and shoulders top building on the chart, which would signal a drop as low as $1,230. I'm not saying that will happen, only that until gold rises above $1,430.60 to confirm that its rally is not dead, we have to reckon with all possibilities. When the black shirts at Comex closed down, gold had gained $9.50 to $1,392.00.

While I am here, it occurs to me to make an offer to y'all: if you want ears tickled, go someplace else. I can't help what wild things y'all hear on the internet -- and for all I know some of them may be true -- but I am still going to tell you what the chart says, as God gives me grace. I am still going to hedge about with conditions and maybes, because generally tomorrow isn't very clear. If you want somebody who merely wants to cheerlead for silver and gold, go find 'em, with my well wishes, but I'm not your man.

The SILVER PRICE five day chart looks like a completed A-B-C correction, but that doesn't say we won't get another Al-B-C leg down. Yesterday it spiked down just below 2800c, rose a little today and spent the day riding between 2835c and 2900c. On Comex silver rose a respectable 56.5c, to 2878.9c.

What does that say so far in this correction? Silver has successfully stopped all comers at 2800c, an established support level. It has held above its 20 DMA (now 2757c) which has served as its safety net since last August. These promise good things, but silver has only been falling for three days. It must yet confirm its achievement by gaining back lost ground, and most of all by climbing over that last high at 3067c.

I don't mind admitting that my poor mind is as divided as if somebody had laid an ax down the middle of it. Silver and gold's behaviour since July-August has not been normal but wildly powerful. This is typical of a market in a third leg up, where silver and gold now are. Just as typically, they ride upon mists and fogs and clouds of rumours. But silver and gold have stalled at $1,430 and 3000c. I am inclined to expect to see that $1,600 - $1,675 target fulfilled before a major correction bites, but also see signs of a top, especially those backed up silver refineries.

So in the next few days silver and gold might blast away, or they might sink. Either is possible. In the long term, of course, they are just beginning their mad third leg up, and the bull market will run for years yet. But soon, soon, maybe three days ago or maybe in January, will come a top that will loose a correction lasting 6 - 12 months. I'm never going to live through this unless I learn to modulate my emotions and not swing from ecstasy to despair. Keep calm, because SILVER and GOLD will become more manic still.

What are the last four words you are most likely to hear shortly before you lose vast amounts of money? "It's different this time." Those are the words I am hearing from people who object to swapping silver for gold and believe that by the end of this week silver will reach $600 an ounce.

Sometimes when y'all don't get it, I get it, that is, I get why y'all don't understand -- I didn't state clearly what I meant or misspoke. But this time I don't get why y'all don't get it. I wrote with what I thought was perfect clarity:

"Folks keep on questioning me about the present glut of silver on the market. They cite JP Morgan's silver short, etc., etc. Whether that JP Morgan story is true or not, I only know that when refineries are backed up from now to February, and when large wholesalers completely pull their bids on 90% coins, that does NOT signal a silver shortage. Rather, the opposite. And remember that the pipeline is very narrow, and easily clogged, and very shallowly financed."

Apparently this was not clear to numerous readers, so I will clarify: US refineries are clogged with a glut of silver. Gluts of silver do not appear at market lows, or at continuation levels; gluts appear at peaks. I do not mean the ULTIMATE peak of the bull market, but certainly an intermediate peak.

But who knows? Maybe "it's different this time."

Anyway, if you are buying silver now this condition has made US 90% silver coin the very cheapest form of silver. Don't buy anything else.

US DOLLAR INDEX's momentum is slowing badly. Today it rose a chintzy 6.2 basis points to 80.059. I've seen racing snails faster than that. Dollar was nailed by resistance today at 80.40, as 'twas also on Wednesday, leaving a double top in place. If the buck cannot hold on to 80 tomorrow, then 'twill sink like your car keys out of your shirt pocket when you lean over the side of the bass boat to look gaze the lake. Don't write it off yet, but it really must hold 80 tomorrow. Yen and euro were flat today, too.

Stocks have made a double top at 11,450. Dow today closed 11,370.06, down 2.42, S&P rose 4.72 to 1,233.

Thanks again for all your prayers and expressions of concern for my wife Susan, now my bionic wife since she has been electronically improved with a pacemaker. Now that her heart has settled down, it appears it has solved her problem. Her energy has returned, a wonderful thing to see. The 16th is our 43rd wedding anniversary, so we are flying to Orlando tomorrow to visit her brother. Tuesday I will return, provided I don't tangle with the TSA. Otherwise, I may be writing y'all by scraps of notes thrown out a jail cell window.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Does it Remain Possible that the Gold Price will Reach $1600 Soon?

Gold Price Close Today : 1381.70
Change : (25.80) or -1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 28.224
Change : (1.524) cents or -5.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 48.95
Change : 1.641 or 3.5%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02043
Change : -0.000708 or -3.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1684.00
Change : -19.70 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 725.95
Change : -16.30 or -2.2%

S&P 500 : 1,228.28
Change : 4.53 or 0.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $170.05
Change : $ 3.33 or 2.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.226
Change : 0.161 or 2.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 402.94
Change : 0.69 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial : 11,372.48
Change : 13.32 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 79.98
Change : 0.120 or 0.2%

GOLD PRICE 5 day chart looks like a corrective move off the Tuesday peak, not the beginning of a new impulsive move down. Today $1,400 capped the market and all the fighting was done between there and $1,372.20 Gold opened at $1,393 tried to rise but slipped to $1,372.20 between 10:00 and 11:00. After that it moved sideways in a tight range just above $1,380. Comex closed at $1,382.50, trimmed by $25.80.

Gold's 20 day moving average at $1,377.55 was hit today. The 50 DMA lies beneath at $1,361. If gold closes below $1,361 then we have to reckon with the worst correction since last August. If gold doesn't turn up by Monday, it will begin to look queasy. Above it must best $1,430.60 to prove a continuing uptrend.

SILVER PRICE, I remind y'all, is more volatile not only to the upside but also to the downside. Therefore it should surprise no one that today it lost about twice as much as gold, 1.77% versus 0.8%.

Silver's 5 day chart speaks more clearly than gold's, and it appears to have exhausted its downside momentum today. Low struck at 2793c. Comex lost 152.4c to close at 2822.4c.

The daily chart looks more like gold's. From 11:00 forward silver traded in a tightening range from 2800 to 2850 -- a long narrow triangle. That signifies an equilibrium, but an equilibrium may result from no force on either side to thousands of foot-pounds on either side. Either way the forces are balanced, and when the pressure up or down increases just a little, a big move will result. Comex lost 152.4c to 2822.4c.

Think about this: silver hasn't even touched its 20 DMA, now at 2751c. 2800c holds out very strong support for silver, as does 2650c.

Folks keep on questioning me about the present glut of silver on the market. They cite JP Morgan's silver short, etc., etc. Whether that JP Morgan story is true or not, I only know that when refineries are backed up from now to February, and when large wholesalers completely pull their bids on 90% coins, that does NOT signal a silver shortage. Rather, the opposite. And remember that the pipeline is very narrow, and easily clogged, and very shallowly financed.

Tomorrow may not tell us much. After two harrowing days, silver may simply take a rest, and resume work on Friday.

Does it remain possible that gold will reach $1,600 soon? Sure, but watch that tell-tale support at $1,350. Break that and it won't.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO jumped up to 48.95 today. And it is feasible that the ratio is stalled trying to break through 47.50 and will yet during this move break through that barrier and fall further. If gold continues rising toward $1,600, that is likely.

But who knows? That's why you set targets, and don't deviate from them when they are hit.

Balance of the arguments slightly favour that silver and gold have topped for this move.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today failed to clear 80 and fell back, barely below 80. Oh, it tried to leap through 80.40, but failed and spent the rest of the day doing penance, bowing lower and lower. Over yesterday it actually gained 12 basis points to 79.977.

Not clear yet whether dollar is merely bouncing off its 20 DMA preparatory to crashing through it, or decided to advance again. Stay tuned.

STOCKS vacillated and oscillated today. Dow managed to scratch out 13.32 points at the close, 11,372.48. S&P500 won 4.53 points to close $1,228.28. Stocks are the Gila Monster of investments.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Gold Price Needs to Clear $1,430 and Reach at Least $1,458.60, 2% Above The Last High

Gold Price Close Today : 1403.10
Change : (7.00) or -0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.748
Change : 0.043 cents or 0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.17
Change : -0.304 or -0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02120
Change : 0.000136 or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1703.70
Change : -18.50 or -1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 742.25
Change : -13.00 or -1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,223.75
Change : 0.63 or 0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.74
Change : $ 0.80 or 0.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.066
Change : 0.039 or 0.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 381.85
Change : -0.11 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial : 11,359.16
Change : -3.03 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 79.57
Change : 0.242 or 0.3%

Until about 9:00 the GOLD PRICE continued its rise from last Thursday, but at $1,430.50 the short-sellers overwhelmed the longs. They pushed gold off the cliff and it left a gap from 1421 - 1423, then continued falling. Around Comex closing time it lifted to $1,408.30 (above my second resistance level at $1,405) but then plunged again for a low at $1,397.35. Gold has since recovered to $1,403.80. Now, don't count gold out yet. Yes, it was ambushed at $1,430, but that's about where the last intraday high was, so it was logical that gold would bounce off that spot. Yes, today's fall looks like a break and peak, but I remains enshrouded in a huge "Maybe." Today gold closed at $1,408.30, down $7.00

How can we tell if it didn't peak today? It will clear $1,430 and reach at least $1,458.60, 2% above the last high. Should gold close below $1,350, then you can go ahead and catalogue today as The Peak.

The SILVER PRICE situation didn't improve today. Yes, it made a new high at 3072c early in the day, but then fought its way down a mountainside to a 2845c low, right back where it started last Thursday.

As with gold, silver's break here may or may not mark the peak. Can't tell until we watch the follow-through. A close below the 20 DMA (2744c), which since last August has served as silver's safety net, would reveal silver's intention to drop. A close below 2645c signals a large, painful drop.

I reiterate: don't count the metals out yet. Peaks have to be confirmed by markets crashing through support levels. We haven't seen that yet.

We were able to enter a few more trades today at a 47.5:1 or better GOLD/SILVER RATIO, but not nearly as many as we would have liked. If we see 47.5:1 or better, we will swap more, but the market tells us, we don't tell the market. US 90% is still trading at a large discount. That also points to a peak.

Let me clean up a mess:

1. Yesterday I meant to write "swap GoldMoney silver for GoldMoney gold", not vice versa as I did.

Most of the day today I felt like I was surrounded by anxious buzzards. It was as tough a day as I've seen in 30 years' trading. Silver's wild ride ran from 3007c to 2845c, 162c. Gold ranged from $1,430.50 to $1,397.35. Should you count them out yet -- or?

The scrofulous US dollar, warts and all, rose 38.3 basis points (0.49%) to 79.954. I seldom say, 'I told y'all so' but I told y'all so. Now the dollar has double-bottomed Friday and today at 79.10 and 79.20. It needs to clamber through 80 to prove that it is not beaten yet, but I expect that tomorrow. Euro today fell 0.52% while the yen rose 1.28%.

None of that makes any sense, nor should you expect it to, since none of these fiat currencies have any objective value. Thus they sway like wispy palms with every breeze of public emotion, first this way, then that, then clean on the ground. Anyway, dollar is leading the pack now and if it clears 80 will keep on leading for a time.

STOCKS today were mixed, some indices up, some down, signalling confusion and bewilderment. Dow lost 3.03 to 11,359.16 while the S&P500 picked up a gigantical 0.63 to close 1,223.75. Leave stocks alone: they are the Black Mamba of investments.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, December 06, 2010

Will The Gold Price Blast Through and Shoot Skyward? Silver Strongly Looks That It Intends To Move Higher

Gold Price Close Today : 1422.70
Change : 9.90 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.705
Change : 0.464 cents or 1.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 47.89
Change : -0.421 or -0.9%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02088
Change : 0.000182 or 0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1722.20
Change : -7.60 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 755.25
Change : -9.00 or -1.2%

S&P 500 : 1,223.12
Change : -1.59 or -0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $165.96
Change : $ (1.43) or -0.9%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.028
Change : -0.069 or -0.9%

Dow in SILVER oz : 382.50
Change : -0.73 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial : 11,362.19
Change : -19.90 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 79.57
Change : 0.242 or 0.3%

The GOLD PRICE high today was $1,426.70 a double top with the 9 November intraday top at $1,424.40. Does that constitute a double top, or will gold blast through this price and shoot skyward? The market will have to tell us. The RSI is high, but not nearly as overbought as it was in September and October. The MACD is headed up and has plenty of room to climb.

Boundaries are $1,426.70 on the upside and $1,380 on the downside.

On the Comex gold made a new high close at $1,415.30 (up $9.90) higher than November 9th's $1,406.80.

The vulnerable area is $1,410. In overnight trading and most of today that $1,410 was the unfailing backstop. Cracking that, then $1,405 would put gold on the defensive.

The SILVER PRICE ran wild today. Comex closed up 46.4c at 2970.5c, but in the aftermarket it is trading at 3011c. The floor is at 2950c, so silver must not fall past that. Upside, your guess is as good as mine: 3060c, 3450c, 3950c? Pick a number.

Yet silver share's gold's vulnerability. Although today it closed above the previous intraday high of 2933c, nothing says that cannot be a double top. True, looking at the chart from the November low at 2502c until today, silver strongly impresses upon my mind that it intends to move higher.

By the way, because the GOLD SILVER RATIO at 47.25 is relatively low now, you ought to be favouring gold in new buying. Whether the peak here, or with gold at $1,600, the reaction will come and on that reaction gold will buy many more ounces of silver than it does today, and offer us an opportunity to swap gold for silver and reap more ounces.

Numerous readers have asked me about using GOLDMONEY.COM to swap. Sure, do it, swap your GoldMoney.com gold for GoldMoney.com silver, and I would do it soon. Gold

Listening to myself I realize that I seem to be fighting an uptrend. Maybe, maybe, but this rally is flashing so many warning signs -- long life, height, speed of rise, dropping physical silver premiums, MACD and RSI (for silver) very high -- that it disturbs my tranquillity and leaves my complacency chastened and smarting.

I've been planning four years to make a swap, and today the ratio hit my target of 47.50 to swap silver for gold. I reckoned not with wholesale dealers.

Clearly they have absorbed a lot of silver in recent weeks, and refineries are backed up until February. So over the weekend they dropped the bid on US 90% silver coin. Worse, I have loads of customers who are lined up to swap silver for gold, yet I can't get anybody to buy it in the quantities I have for sale. Oh, I was able to do the IRA swaps, because they have only bullion and the spread didn't widen on bullion. I thought I had covered every base and planned for every quirk, but this one slapped me in the face like a sprung tree branch.

I think we will just have to swallow the poor price and execute the trades anyway, because what we are seeing in physical silver -- sharply lower premiums and large dealers reluctant to buy -- argues for a top, not a continuation.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today is trading at 79.571, up 24.2 basis points (0.31%), with the ratty euro and the raggedy yen down about 0.40%. The dollar bounced up after colliding with its 20 DMA (79.28), and looked right pert. Euroland, which a couple of weeks ago was synonymous with The Promised Land, now suffers rolling paranoia as the crisis monkey jumps from bankrupt country to bankrupt country. Will Portugal crash next? Or Spain? Or Italy? Or Hungary? With the dollar, at least, if California goes hooves up in bankruptcy, the dollar won't fly apart. If Ireland or Portugal turns white side up, who knows whether the Euro will survive? On the one hand, somebody must pay off all the bonds and paper the German banks hold, on the other, the German people don't like bailing out everybody else (assuming they know not that the Euro bailout actually bails out their banks, and not Ireland or Portugal).

STOCKS have stalled. Dow today closed 11,362.19, down 19.90, while the S&P scratched 1.59 to 1,223.12.. If silver and gold are dangerous right now, stocks are lethal, the puffer fish sushi ("fugu") of investments.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.