Tuesday, December 20, 2011

The Gold Price and Silver Price had a Field Day, Gold up 1.3 Percent

Gold Price Close Today : 1615.60
Change : 21.20 or 1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 2949.60
Change : 67.40 cents or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.774
Change : -0.545 or -1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01826
Change : 0.000180 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1432.00
Change : 24.70 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 625.45
Change : 16.80 or 2.8%

S&P 500 : 1,205.35
Change : -14.31 or -1.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $150.55
Change : $ (3.28) or -2.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.283
Change : -0.159 or -2.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 398.91
Change : -12.80 or -3.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,766.26
Change : -100.13 or -0.8%

US Dollar Index : 79.83
Change : -0.421 or -0.5%

Mercy! The SILVER and GOLD PRICE had a field day. On Comex the GOLD PRICE rose $21.20 (1.3%), smashed through $1,605 resistance, and closed $1,615.60. Silver rose 67.4c (2.3%)to 2949.6.

That's good, but it ain't exactly crossing over Jordan into the promised land just yet.

Above lies resistance at $1,625, then $1,650, then $1,687. If this rally exceeds $1,675 it will command our attention and respect. Till then it earns only watching. And we'll find out something about that last low ($1,562.50) when this little rally-ette runs out of steam.

The SILVER PRICE shone with a 2.3% rise, and Mondays trading looks like some sort of bottom -- permanent or interim is another question -- but now the rally meets real resistance at 2980. Must clear that barrier to maintain its reputation. To give y'all a nearer idea where today brings silver, think on this: the down trend line stands overhead at 3050c. Today's high reached only 2959c.

All today's work was constructive, but settled nothing. Silver and gold remain in downtrends. They are only corrective downtrends, interrupting a primary bull market (uptrend), but down for the nonce still.

Appears I got it exactly wrong at the exact bottom, facing yesterday's outlook to today's performance. Ahh, the obese female hath not yet sung her aria, so let me cover my embarrassment with patience.

Euphoria's mother today was a pledge from Europe to pony up 150 bn euros ($196 bn), which they don't have, to the IMF to apply to the European debt crisis, where the questionable debt amounts to $3 trillion, 15 times the magnanimous contribution. ECB also widened its support for bond markets (NYT-speak for I don't know what), German economic confidence indicators rose, and the US Commerce Dep't said builders broke ground on 9.3% more new homes in November than in October, while building permits jumped 5.7%. This number is rock solid until the adjustments are published next month.

Yeah, buddy! All that sounds like the world economy and the European crisis turning the corner to me. Right. Anyhow, that's how markets reacted as if "Happy Days Are Here Again."

STOCK buyers fell into a frenzy like lemmings on their way to the coast. Dow jumped 337.32 points or 2.8% to 12,103.58. S&P 500 rose 2.98% (35.95) to 1,241.30. This positions stocks for a triple top just above 12,200.

SOURPUSS! You might say, You never have any- thing good to say about stocks! And you'd be right, as I have nothing good to say about any market that is in a primary down trend (bear market) and technically looks as ratty as an old 1970s burnt orange polyester leisure suit.

Technically that took stocks above the 200 day moving average (11,936). Since they are already above the 50 DMA (11,835), that does give them upward momentum. At least until the next piece of bad news out of Europe sends scuttles investor hopes.

Dow will not pass 12,300; S&P500 won't rise above 1,280.

I reckon time's come for me to get more accurate and precise about the US dollar index. Today it lost 42.1 basis points, down 0.54%, to 79.829. I've been saying it needs to hold 80. Have I changed my mind?

Nope, I've just sharpened my pencil. The actual support line is 79.84 - 79.70, site of the last two peaks. today the dollar came back to that line, so today's action is not fatal.

More than that, the uptrend line right now stands just a mite above 79. Long as dollar doesn't break that, it will still be rallying.

Now I'm just a natural born fool, but if I were them Nice Government Men and I wanted to boost the euro and trim the dollar, I'd wait for some nested good news, or make some up, and then I'd buy them stock futures real heavy early in the day, to make it look like some mad buying panic was carrying away the public, just to sort of spark a rally like.

But what do I know?

Euro today rose 0.63% to close at 1.3080. Another few points and it'll hit my 1.3200 target where the trend line stands in its way, and stop like a wild steer running headfirst into a concrete block wall.

Japanese Yen rose 0.18% to close 128.39c/Y100 (Y77.89/$1). Nothing happening there.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.