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Friday, April 29, 2011

The Entire Week's Trading had the Look of Past Silver and Gold Price Peaks

Gold Price Close Today : 1,556.00
Gold Price Close 21-Apr : 1,503.20
Change : 52.80 or 3.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 4858.4
Silver Price Close 21-Apr : 4606.2
Change : 252.20 or 5.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 32.027
Gold Silver Ratio 21-Apr : 32.634
Change : -0.61 or -1.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.03122
Silver Gold Ratio 21-Apr : 0.03064
Change : 0.00058 or 1.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 170.19
Dow in Gold Dollars 21-Apr : $ 171.98
Change : $ (1.79) or -1.0%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.233
Dow in Gold Ounces 21-Apr : 8.320
Change : -0.09 or -1.0%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 263.68
Dow in Silver Ounces 21-Apr : 271.50
Change : -7.83 or -2.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,810.54
Dow Industrial 21-Apr : 12,505.99
Change : 304.55 or 2.4%

S&P 500 : 1,363.61
S&P 500 21-Apr : 1,337.38
Change : 26.23 or 2.0%

US Dollar Index : 73.050
US Dollar Index 21-Apr : 74.096
Change : -1.046 or -1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,874.90
Platinum Price Close 21-Apr : 1,816.50
Change : 58.40 or 3.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 794.45
Palladium Price Close 21-Apr : 768.85
Change : 25.60 or 3.3%


In my unmannerly haste and thoughtless last night I neglected to mention the poor tornado victims in Alabama, and urge y'all to pray for their relief. Our county borders on Alabama, and there were tornadoes all around us, even on the counties on either side of us.

I must apologize also that we were out of the office a large slice of today, attending a funeral not connected to the tornadoes, but just over in Alabama. Driving back into Tennessee every car on the four lane highway stopped and pulled over until the funeral procession passed. So did the men mowing their yards. If you want to know what kind of people live in Alabama, THAT kind of people.

Been rode so hard and put away so wet today I think my metaphor and simile tanks are plumb dry, but I'll try anyway.

What a week! After gobbling up 8.5% last week, SILVER chomped down another 5.5% this week, GOLD played catch-up with a 3.5% gain, and PLATINUM and PALLADIUM woke up, but something strange happened today. More later. Stocks gained this week, but not nearly as much as gold, while the Bernancubus torpedoed the dollar, which was not a good idea since it was already gunwales to the waterline. Alas, I ken not the wisdom of the mighty, and am such a rube that their cleverness appears to me only -- dare I reveal my own obtuseness in the face of their sophistication? -- garden variety stupidity,. Thus I grasp not how killing your own currency will help your economy. I told y'all I was obtuse.

The US DOLLAR INDEX today slowed its slide for the weekend. Today it lost only 7.1 basis points and came to rest on the ledge-lip of 73 at 73.05. Technically you must believe it is headed for 70.70 (2008 low) soon and 40 eventually, but WAIT! Remember that all currency exchange rates are played with by central bankers as wanton boys do play with flies. They love nothing better than to seduce a market all in one direction -- like all the dollar shorts/euro longs right now -- then reverse their field to punish all the trend followers. Oh, and to make the world fear them and believe they are doing something. Well, they ARE doing something, namely, what they are supposed to be doing: managing inflation expectations, so that the whole herd runneth not out of their phony money at the same time. Euro made another new high today, right now at 1.4807, but closed lower. After six days rising, that might not mean much, but could be a key reversal. Yen rose again, to Y81.19/$ (123.17c/Y100).

Stocks rose today. Dow added 47.23 to close at 12,810.54 and the S&P followed along, gaining 3.13 to 1363.61. Note, I beg, that despite these gains, stocks fell against silver and gold. I keep telling y'all that because I know your ears are dinned by all the mainstream, conventional, degreed, accredited, certified, MBA'd, polished, suited, and universally admired advisors, brokers, and media pundits. They all keep touting stocks for the same reason the man who owns the liquor store keeps that neon light in his window: he is selling his product. Or, look at it this way: when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. They have no screwdriver, no impact wrench, no saw, no Gorilla glue, no tacks, just the hammer of stocks. And with astonishing, nay, breathtaking ignorance they recommend you buy stocks even though STOCKS REMAIN IN A PRIMARY DOWN TREND. Besides, I've learned something in nearly 64 years: those who do not know talk, those who know, do, and talk not. Search out the fellow who is succeeding, never mind how spiffy he dresses and talks, and watch him. You might learn something. Fact is, nowadays when folks start flashing them degrees at me, I just yawn and look for a better game. They have all been taught to think, all right, but all wrong.

The GOLD PRICE today took off and by the time they were turning the key to lock Comex's doors, the gold price had risen a massive $25.20 to close at $1,556. No laggard, the SILVER PRICE rose 106.4c to 4858.4c at closing, yielding a gold/silver ratio of 32.027.

Then something very odd happened. The silver price was rocking along about 4850c -- after Comex closed, maybe 1:30 or 2:00 our time -- when suddenly it lost about 70 cents, to 4750. Fell clean through a trap door, and took the ratio to 32.655. No news story precipitated that, and at the same time the gold price ROSE, to $1,565-ish, as if somebody were doing a MASSIVE silver to gold swap all at once.

For silver that is lousy behavior, worse coming on the heels of this week's volatility. It certainly poses the first half of a key reversal, and it's up to silver to disprove that on Monday. Between silver and gold the entire week's trading had the look of past silver and gold peaks. Monday saw a new intraday high in the silver price -- 4982c -- and a new high closing ratio (31.99) -- but a 218c decline from high to low, even though Comex Monday closed higher than the previous trading day.

This hot and cold indecision may arise from nothing more than all the radiation pouring off the old 5000c high as the silver price braces itself to breach that barrier. But mayhap also it is that faltering and fluttering often seen at tops, like a baby bird flopping on the ground, trying to get back up in the air but out of strength. Today's unexplained silver price fainting spell doesn't build confidence. Just ask Dale Carnegie.

But mercy! What would have to happen to reverse silver? The 20 day moving average, tripwire of a decline, stands at 4286c, some five bucks below current price. And the silver price must break that line to turn down. Everything else I have said is mere suspicion and anticipation. Well, I will add that the silver price is more oversold than Barack Obama in 2008, and gold nearly so badly. But "oversold" can persist a long time (in some cases 4 years).

Mainly the ratio's action sets the inside of my head to itching. A new low, then a sudden rise (33.002 on 27 April), when it hasn't been doing that. And there's that parabola on silver's chart. All this implies that the road ahead is washed out someplace.

Here are some brackets: The gold price keeps on rallying as long as it closeth not under $1,505. 20 dma stands at 1,484, support at $1,445. Break that and it might reach $1,380. Upside you are looking now at $1,600 very soon, maybe higher.

The SILVER PRICE must not lose its grip on 4750c. Below that support shows up at 4400c, and the 20 dma at 4286c, then 3600c. I have no upside target for the silver price, and have not a clue how one might forecast same. Let's guess and say that of course 5000c, the 1980 high, will be tough to break. But what if silver breaks through? What then? A ratio at 28:1? Possible, I reckon, but can that happen without SOME reaction first?

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, April 28, 2011

Caution Light on For Silver and Gold Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1530.80
Change : 14.20 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 47.520
Change : 1.562 or 3.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 32.21
Change : -0.786 or -2.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.03104
Change : 0.000739 or 2.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1841.20
Change : 18.20 or 1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 776.50
Change : 11.50 or 1.5%

S&P 500 : 1,375.13
Change : 1.47 or 0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.84
Change : $ (1.12) or -0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.313
Change : -0.054 or -0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 267.79
Change : -8.35 or -3.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,725.40
Change : 34.44 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index : 73.12
Change : -0.404 or -0.5%

Don't miss my special offer below.

Sorry I sent no commentary yesterday, but I was finishing my monthly Moneychanger newsletter for paid subscribers, who can log in to www.the-moneychanger.com and pick up the April issue.

Listening to Ben Bernanke today quoted from his press conference yesterday, I was amazed how incompetent he sounded, stuttering like someone telling an uncertain lie. If he's the best the central bankers have, their gunwales are deeper under water than I even I suspected.

He announced yesterday that his imagination has been surgically removed. At least, that is MY turn on his idiotically continuing the Keynesian nostrums that have so long and with such historical uniformity failed. Poor boy doesn't have imagination enough to think of anything else. What a punishment, to be subjected to a goof like that!

The US DOLLAR, taking its cue from Bernanke's announcement yesterday that he would surely keep interest rates low and thereby assuring he would keep on inflating, sank like a lump in a churn. Y'all remember that more than any other factor, interest rates determine currency exchange rates. Euro managers raise euro interest rates, Bernancubus suppresses dollar interest rates, and surprise, surprise, the scrofulous buck sinks against the scabrous euro. It's the Clash of the Midgets, seeing who can slither down the drain first.

Whooo. That felt good. Now, back to the buck.

Today the US dollar index sank another 40.4 basis points (0.52%) on top of the 53 basis points it threw away yesterday. Trading now at 73.115 on its way to 40 [sic]. Get this: Bernard O'Bama and the Bernanculus are gutting your dollars to please their masters and keep the parasitism dribbling along a while longer. If that don't make you howling mad, you have no mad gland.

Euro rose like your mama's house guest sitting on a whoopee cushion (I bet you got one memorable whipping for that!). New high for the move at 1.4817 Yen rose 0.8% to Y81.54/$ (122.64c/Y100).

Let me put this stock thing in perspective for y'all. Stocks are now maybe 20% above December 2010, yet against gold they have actually dropped. Against silver they have dropped a lot, down to 90% of their June 2003 peak value. Y'all see now? I don't want your stocks, because they are like those smoke bombs they sell for July 4th -- all smoke and noise, no bang. In fact, stocks remain the government-approved, OSHA-safe imitation cherry bomb in Tennessee Bob's Wholesale Fireworks Investment Store. And will remain.

Today the Dow rose 34.44 to 12,725.40, hand in hand with the S&P500 which didn't exactly rise, but, well, barely lifted itself up on the ball of its foot 1.47 points to 1,357.13. Oddly -- he always says that when he sniffs blood somewhere -- all the other indices fell. That's confusion, and confusion doesn’t make for strong markets.

I know some of y'all are going to get madder than a wet wasp, but I have to flip the switch on the caution light on SILVER and GOLD PRICES. After the Bernancubus glued the accelerator pedal to the floor yesterday, silver and gold prices took off wildly. But bear in mind that it is not unusual for the SILVER PRICE to top one day, then the GOLD PRICE to top a few days later. Key is that the Gold/Silver ratio, after a new low 25 April at 31.996, shot up to 33.36 the next day. In all silver and gold's recent upside downs, that hasn't happened. But maybe I am only nervously anticipating when I ought to be contentedly enjoying. Still, a live dog is better than a dead lion.

Today the gold price made a new intraday high at $1,538.30 and a new closing high (all-time since the beginning of the cosmos) at $1,530.80, up $14.20 on Comex. Low came at $1,524.10. In the aftermarket gold's playing footsie with $1,536.

Only target I have to work off is that upside down head and shoulders gold broke out of. That points to $1,525 - $1,557. The gold price would have to close below $1,505 to invalidate this rally.

Ohhh, I HATE parabolas, and silver's chart clearly shows one. They are rally killers, and on this drive the silver price will need every sinew and ounce of strength to burst through that historic brick wall at 5000c per ounce. If it does, it will run straight skyward.

Yet -- O, absolve me, Silver Bugs! -- I had rather capture my silver profits now by swapping silver for gold and miss part of that move, than see the reaction take them all away. Swapping for gold, I will at least get to swap back for MORE silver when the ratio rises. Not swapping, I will only get to cherish the warm, fuzzy memory of reading all those Internet gurus who convinced me the silver price will reach $100 by next Friday.

The SILVER PRICE has a threatening double top, reached Monday and today, at 4982c and 4950c. The silver price must clear 5000c immediately and not fall below 4725c, or succumb to the Kryptonite of fifty bucks. This situation is as full of tension as your cheeks when you suck on to a firehose. Here it shall not remain, but must advance or fall back.

SPECIAL OFFER

Because the last Special Offer sold out so fast, I promised y'all I'd come up with another soon, so here 'tis.

Gold Coins Under US$100:

Offer # 1. Mexican two pesos. Contains 0.0482 troy oz. gold, about 1/20 oz. At a 5.6% premium I can sell 30 ea. Mex 2 p @ US$78.20 ea = $2,346.00 + $25 shipping = $2,371.00 total per lot.

Offer # 2. Mexican 2-1/2 pesos. About 1/16 ounce with exactly 0.0603 oz gold. Also at 5.6% premium, so 30 ea. Mex 2-1/2 p @ 97.80 = $2,934.00 plus $25 shipping = $2,959.00 total per lot.

More Imperial German 20 Marks.

Offer # 3. German 20 Marks. Minted nearly 100 years ago, before 1915, 0.2304 troy oz. At 4.36% premium, order 10 ea. German 20 M @ $369.50 ea., or $3,695.00 + $25 shipping = $3,720 per lot.

Offer # 4. South African Two Rands. Same size as the British sovereign, 0.2354 troy oz, but lower premium at 3.6% over gold. 10 ea. S.A. 2 Rands @ $374.90 = $3,749.00 + $25 shipping = $3,774.00 total per lot.

A very few more US $5 and $10 Commemoratives.

Offer # 5. U.S. $5 and $10 modern commemoratives. I found only 36 ea of the $5 (contains 0.2418 oz gold) at $386.15 and 4 ea of the $10 (0.4838) at $772.30. Premium over gold content for these is 3.9%.

I will sell lots of Eight (8) each $5 gold commems for $3,089.20 + $25 shipping = $3,114.20 per lot. A $10 gold counts as two $5 golds, so you can order one $10 and six $5s and that equals Eight $5s.

For this item only, limit one (1) lot per customer.

Offer # 6. Mixed Peace and Morgan silver dollars. I have two lots only of mixed VG+ Peace and Morgan silver dollars at a 10.9% or $40.50 (0.765 oz silver each) One lot is 120 ea at $40.50 ea or $4,860 + $35 shipping = $4,895 per lot. Note that these are the circulated US silver dollars minted before 1936 in VERY GOOD or better condition, so all will show some wear, some much wear, but all will be FULL VG with no rim dings, nicks, etc.

Conditions:

Orders by e-mail only. Please do not call.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above. You may order more than one lot for everything but the US commems, but not in increments of less than one lot. That is, you may order 30 Mexican two pesos or 60 or 90, but not 36 or 45.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

Spot gold basis for all prices above is $1,536.60.

Friendly advice: When you order, list the alternative lots you will accept, in case what you order has already been spoken for. That way your timely response will at least be rewarded with something., ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to . No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee. Please mention you saw this special offer on goldprice.org.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. We allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com


© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Gold Price Closed at 1516 Silver Price Closed at 45.96

Gold Price Close Today : 1,516.70
Change : 13.70 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 45.96
Change : .91 or 2.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,825.20
Change : 12.80 or 0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 757.80
Change : 2.40 or 0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 33.00
Change : -0.36 or 0.99%

Dow Industrial : 12,595.37
Change : 115.49 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 73.30
Change : 73.30 or 100.0%

Editors Note: Franklin may not be publishing commentary today, if he does we will publish it here.



Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Gold and Silver Coins are Money

Gold Price Close Today : 1503.00
Change : (5.60) or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 45.050
Change : (2.099) or -4.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 33.36
Change : 1.366 or 4.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02997
Change : -0.001280 or -4.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1804.50
Change : -20.10 or -1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 751.90
Change : -7.90 or -1.0%

S&P 500 : 1,347.24
Change : 11.99 or 0.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.23
Change : $ 2.24 or 1.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.380
Change : 0.109 or 1.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 279.59
Change : 14.90 or 5.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,595.37
Change : 115.49 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 73.77
Change : -0.231 or -0.3%

It pays always to keep your eyes on the horizon, so that the confusing details around you assemble themselves into a larger picture.

From a friend in Iowa I received an email reporting that a friend had gone to buy a US$7,300 piece of farm equipment. When it came time to pay, his friend asked the dealer, "Do you want paper, silver, or gold?"

The dealer brightened and said, "Silver, and I'll give you a discount if you pay in silver."

Behold, the new economy! Here behold the goal and means to free ourselves of the Federal Reserve's fiat money tyranny and economic slavery: we stop using their phony private money and return to [quite legal and constitutional] gold and silver money. We remove ourselves from the economic storms caused by their rotten currency and crooked banking and we rebuild our local economies on a sound silver and gold basis.

Just try it. Next time you pay, ask the person whether they want paper, gold, or silver. See what happens. Worst they can say is NO.

Also, the ever-sagacious Catherine Austin Fitts and I teamed up to create www.silverandgoldaremoney.com. There you can punch in any US dollar amount and in real time convert that to a payment in US 90% silver coin, US gold or silver American Eagles, or a host of non-US gold and silver coins and bullion.

Next time you hand somebody green paper dollars or a credit card, just remember: you are forging your own chains.

And forget the US government threats and persiflage: you have a constitutional and common law right to contract for any payment you please. More than that, all gold and silver coins ever minted by the US government remain "legal tender." Using gold and silver coin is not "bartering", it's MONEY.

You forge your own chains.

MARKETS TODAY:

We trod not the office steps yesterday, but observed for Easter Monday. Considering yesterday's fireworks, that probably was a great idea.

I know y'all only want to know about silver and gold, but be patient: it all works together.

THE US DOLLAR INDEX has sunk 32.3 basis points since last Thursday, from 74.096 to 73.773. Today alone it lost 21.3 more bp, 0.27%.

Yet look not smugly on. Today the dollar formed a falling wedge, which promises that tomorrow, if it breaks not below 73.744, 'twill rise tomorrow.

And that would surprise. Breaking down past the last low, 73.74, and the December low, 74.23, targets the dollar for 72 or lower. The scabrous euro took advantage of the buck's swoon to rise to another new high for the move (ho-hum) at 1.4643, up 0.77%. Even the yen has gapped up and headed higher. Today it's trading at Y81.55/$ (122.62c/Y100).

Only sign this situation might turn around is that falling wedge on the dollar's daily chart.

Baldly stated, I don't believe the stock market, or more precisely, I DISbelieve the stock market. No economic reason exists for its rise, except the Fed and other central banks pumping out zillions of new money which all runs straight into financial markets. Add to that the Nice Government Men on the Plunge Protection Team steadily meddling in the market, following the Spirit of Potemkin to keep up a cardboard front screening the real and rotten economy.

Today the Dow rose to a new high for the move, 12,595.37, up 115.49. The S&P500 rose 11.99 to 1,347.24.

Hey, here's an idea! Instead of investing your money in stocks, why not take a couple hundred thousand bucks out into your back yard, bury it, and see if a money tree comes up?

There are very few overnight certainties in markets, but it appears that yesterday silver turned down, and gold will probably break as well.

The SILVER PRICE sank 10.5% from its 4985 high Monday to a 4464.7c low. One expects to see that sort of move on a trend reversing day.

I hasten to add that this is no certainty, as every forecast dwells in a foggy nimbus. But a quick calculation shows that if this is the break, then the target might be 3360.

Y'all must bear in mind that the more overhyped and overblown a market becomes, the more severe the following reaction. Every hedge fund in the world has hopped on to silver, and they have almost as much loyalty as a 1915 Irish draftee in the British army. They will dump silver by the truckloads as soon as they sniff a break.

The naïve think this is terrible, that the bull market has ended, that it proves silver is in a bubble. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is a normal process in every market, and clears away the grotesque over-optimism to make way for another advance.

Biggest argument AGAINST a correction in precious metals remains GOLD. It sank a paltry $5.60 today to close Comex at $1,503.00, but that offered no damage. The SILVER PRICE on the other hand fell 209.9c to 4505c, down 4.5% in one day. The gold/silver ratio fell 4.26%, too.

Once the gold price crosses that $1,500 wall protecting investor morale, it will tumble, too. Target there might be $1,445.

On the upside, the silver price needs to close over 5000c and gold above $1,525 to suggest that this rally hath yet legs.

On this day in 1983 the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke 1,200 for the first time. I recount that incident to impress upon y'all's minds how far markets can outrun our imagination. The ultimate Dow High was 11,722, about ten times that 1983 figure.

In Florida and Georgia today is Confederate Memorial Day. It was yesterday in Mississippi.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, April 21, 2011

Silver Price Up 8.2% in One Week - Gold Price Closes at 1503.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1,503.20
Gold Price Close 15-Apr : 1,485.30
Change : 17.90 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 4606.2
Silver Price Close 15-Apr : 4256.6
Change : 349.60 or 8.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 32.634
Gold Silver Ratio 15-Apr : 34.894
Change : -2.26 or -6.5%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.03064
Silver Gold Ratio 15-Apr : 0.02866
Change : 0.00198 or 6.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 171.98
Dow in Gold Dollars 15-Apr : $ 171.79
Change : $ 0.19 or 0.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.320
Dow in Gold Ounces 15-Apr : 8.310
Change : 0.01 or 0.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 271.50
Dow in Silver Ounces 15-Apr : 289.98
Change : -18.47 or -6.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,505.99
Dow Industrial 15-Apr : 12,343.16
Change : 162.83 or 1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,337.38
S&P 500 15-Apr : 1,319.68
Change : 17.70 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index : 74.096
US Dollar Index 15-Apr : 74.873
Change : -0.777 or -1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,816.50
Platinum Price Close 15-Apr : 1,791.50
Change : 25.00 or 1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 768.85
Palladium Price Close 15-Apr : 769.70
Change : -0.85 or -0.1%


Our office will be closed to observe Good Friday, Easter, and Easter Monday. We will return on Tuesday, 26 April.

Yet another week to stretch your credulity: the SILVER PRICE up 8.2%, the GOLD PRICE up 1.2%. No, those are not typos. All else besides seems anemic.

What has come clear this week? That Bernard O'Bama and Blundering Ben Bernanke are destroying the dollar, yes, stringing it up by the hooves, slitting its belly, and gutting it. Had I been a fly on the wall, I could now report when the decision was made in the Bushite administration to depreciate the dollar, and when Bernard and Ben decided they would fix the economy by eviscerating the dollar. Or mayhap there is some deeper conspiracy, some destroy the dollar and replace it with the Bongo or whatever Frankenstein currency our Great Ones desire. This much is clear: they balk not at stealing the wealth of every American by depreciating the dollar.

What loosed this tirade? US DOLLAR INDEX today dropped 27.2 basis points to 74.096, down 0.35% and most critically, through the Dec 2011 low at 74.23. Next logical target is 71.25, maybe the 2001-2008 low at 70.70. As yet the chart signals no turnaround.

The moldy euro reacted by making a new high for the move at $1.4542. Yen gapped up to Y81.83/$ (122.2c/Y100).

Did y'all ever walk through a house of mirrors at a fair? Remember how the mirrors distort everything, some make you skinny, some fat, some make your head tiny and your body huge? That's how the stock market makes me feel. No economic outlook is pushing it higher, no fundamental strength, yet it powers higher, driven by mysterious forces with the initials NGM. Clearly, they have taken over the Potemkin stock market to cast before the mushrooms' eyes the illusion of prosperity.

It is never a smart idea to mock reality, because reality always has the last word. The stock market is riding a wave of new money and government manipulation. This will end badly.

Investing in stocks is like substituting oven cleaner for Wildroot Hair Oil. It won't make your hair shine and you'll have to part your scalp.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES are just about as crazy. The SILVER PRICE up 8.2% in one week? What's bad about this? Y'all are going to start expecting it all the time, and this is not a normal move. It is NOT different this time, and it never is.

What is it then? It is a bull market in a fiercely strong upwave, and all that has been accelerated by Ben Bernanke's Bundles of Bucks. Yet I am not pointing to its end, because the GOLD PRICE could reach $1,600 and the SILVER PRICE 5000c. Seasonal highs almost without exception occur before mid-May, and June, July, August, and September have not for the last eleven years shown any high.

And if some goof tells you silver and gold prices are "in a bubble," just smile and don't squander any words enlightening his darkness. Compared to the 1980 peaks, silver and gold prices are hardly moving. No, I am not joking, and have the charts to prove it. The precious metals bull market has AT LEAST 3 to 10 more years to run, and silver may nearly quadruple from here while gold rises another four times, too.

Here's what makes trading or investing so hard: you have to look at the sturdy present and envision the unseen future. At its 400c low, who could imagine silver at 4600c, over 11 times as high? A few did.

In the same way, you must look at the markets everyone is panting after and envision them when the fickle crowd has cast them aside. Think "real estate." "Beanie babies." "Tech stocks."

TODAY the gold price hammered clean through $1,500 resistance to close at $1,503.20, up $4.90. The real barrier here is $1,505 (as $1,405 was earlier). When gold breaches that breastwork, probably next week, it will shoot higher still and you will drop quoting it in the fourteens and get used to quoting it in the fifteen hundreds.

GOLD's short term chart has a wedgey look I don't like, so next week might see some correcting before bursting through $1,505. As long as gold remains above $1,490 it will continue rallying.

SILVER rose 159.7c today to close at 4606.2c. It's following a pattern of breaking into new high ground during the day, then adding 30 - 50c in the aftermarket. Right now it's trading 4664.

The only argument against silver right now is its own success. Its rise is looking more and more parabolic, and that usually signals the end of a move. It's more overbought than sushi at a tom cat convention. I confess, there's not much way to predict where it will run, or where it will stop, but the wilder it gets, the worse will be the eventual hangover.

Still, as long as silver remains about 4500 or 4550c, it will keep on raging. That 115c discount on the wholesale buy side of US 90% silver coin leaves me very antsy.

On this glorious day in 1836 the Republic of Texas made good its independence by defeating the army of Santa Anna at San Jacinto.

Y'all enjoy your Easter holiday.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, April 20, 2011

The Gold Price Will Go Higher Before this Rally Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 1498.30
Change : 3.80 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 44.465
Change : 0.546 cents or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 33.70
Change : -0.332 or -1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02968
Change : 0.000290 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1804.00
Change : 32.50 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 760.75
Change : 29.05 or 4.0%

S&P 500 : 1,330.36
Change : 17.75 or 1.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.82
Change : $ 2.16 or 1.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.312
Change : 0.105 or 1.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 280.08
Change : 4.17 or 1.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,453.54
Change : 186.79 or 1.5%

US Dollar Index : 74.36
Change : -0.678 or -0.9%

The GOLD PRICE was stopped today by $1,505, but backstopped by $1,495. After all the back and forth, the gold price closed on Comex at $1,498.30 (Shades of the Nice Government Men, warding off the strong psychological mojo of a $1,500+ close!) up $3.80.

Not much point discussing this, since y'all already know what I'm thinking. The gold price will reach at least the target from its inverse Head and Shoulders or $1,525, maybe $1,600. It's overbought some, but not like baby ducks at Easter time. We might get a correction lasting a couple of days, but then it will take off again, assuming it doesn't hit $1,525 before that. $1,502 in the aftermarket.

The GOLD PRICE will go higher before this rally ends. Higher, I say.

Here's a sample of how Comex closes alone can confound you. On Comex the SILVER PRICE ended at 4446.5c, up 54.6c. Not bad, but it ignores the silver price trading in the aftermarket above 4500c at 4524c right now.

Nag, nag, nag! What nags me now is that those white metals, platinum prices, and palladium prices, have been lagging badly. They made highs for the move back in February, and lower highs in April. Today they rose a bit, but nothing like those February highs. If silver and gold prices are so garlicky, why aren't platinum and palladium, which appear to be markets that have rolled over and started down?

Another thing I don't like is that discount on the wholesale buy price of US 90% silver coin. It has now reached $1.15 BELOW spot. Of course, that makes US 90% silver coin ("junk coin" in coin-dealer jargon) the very cheapest way to buy silver now, nearly $2.00 cheaper than .999 fine one oz silver rounds, so that's the only way to buy silver. But that widening discount often accompanies market tops.

All this pokes me in the ribs to swap SILVER (the whitish one) for gold (the yellow one) right now, as this spikey action in silver is screaming that some sort of peak draweth night.

But silver still is reaching for the moon. It's more overbought than cheap loud ties at Christmastime (I'm running low on metaphors here) but believe me, it is offering no other sign of topping out, except its extreme height. That does sort of sound silly, doesn't it, using its success as the strongest argument against it?

It's possible the gold price can run on this rally to $1,600 and the silver price to $50.

US DOLLAR INDEX reversed today, to the downside again. Began to weaken overnight, then broke 74.80 and sank like your mama's wedding ring that time you dropped it down the bathroom sink. Dropped 67.8 basis points to trade now at 74.351.

What meaneth this moiling? Simply that the US dollar index has staged a strong reversal falling to a new low for the move, and pointing it prow toward 74.25 minimum, and much more likely, 71.25, maybe 70.70. 'Tain't good.

The dollar's tergiversation sent that scabrous monster, the euro, gapping up for a marginal new high at 1.4542, up 1.26%. Trading now at 1.4521. Clearly the Fed is intent on lowering the US dollar's exchange rate. No accidents in currency exchange rates.

The Japanese yen (as opposed, I supposed, to the FRENCH yen) closed at Y82.48/$ (121.24c/Y100). that's about flat with yesterday.

STOCKS sprang the big surprise today. They ran up to the same high as April's, roughly roughly 12,450. Dow closed at 12,453.54 up 186.79 (1.52%). S&P rose 17.75 to 1,330.36, up 1.35%.

So what if I have grabbed the wrong tail on this dog and stocks are not breaking down but have been making an inverse head and shoulders? Well, if that's so, stocks might hit 13,345 before this is over (height of head added to neckline).

Ask me if I'm whimpering? Y'all already know the answer. If stocks gain 900 points, silver will gain twice as much, gold about the same. I lust for stocks the way some people lust for a root canal or bypass surgery.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Gold Price Closed at $1494.50 and the Silver Price Closed at 43.91

Gold Price Close Today : 1494.50
Change : 2.20 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 43.919
Change : 0.962 cents or 2.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 34.03
Change : -0.711 or -2.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02939
Change : 0.000601 or 2.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1771.50
Change : -8.50 or -0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 731.70
Change : -3.50 or -0.5%

S&P 500 : 1,312.62
Change : 7.48 or 0.6%

Dow In GOLD$ : $169.67
Change : $ 0.67 or 0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.208
Change : 0.032 or 0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 279.30
Change : 1.42 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,266.75
Change : 65.16 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index : 75.07
Change : -0.438 or -0.6%

Merciful Heavens! Will my misstatements never cease? Yesterday I wrote "swap gold for silver right now," but clearly -- at least, clear to me and clear to y'all if you would pay attention to what I MEAN and not what I SAY -- I meant "swap silver for gold right now." Right, the white metal for the yellow metal.

Everything else was correct. Please forgive me. Ain't no cure for haste, and it catches me every time. I have no proof reader, and sometimes, I clean lose my brain. TODAY'S MARKETS

Editors Note: We picked this up and changed it during the evening.

The GOLD PRICE rose another $2.,20 today to finish on Comex at $1,494.50 after a high of $1,499.90. Plainly a crowd of sellers is willing to risk being short gold at $1,500, and gold's momentum has slowed, baffled so far by that barrier.

Think what you like, I say it will at least pierce that barrier and reach $1,525 before this rally ends, and $1,600 is not out of the question.

The SILVER PRICE refuses to slow down. Gained 96.2c today to close Comex at 4391.9c, and has traded as high as 4418c. Gold/Silver Ratio made another new low today at 34.029.

At the risk of being indicted for stating the obvious, a market hasn't turned until it has turned. Neither silver nor gold have blinked yet, much less signaled any turnaround concretely. A trend in force remains in force until violated, and nobody is writing any tickets to silver or gold yet.

US dollar index fell back off yesterday's peak, but notice it fell not below 75. Yes, lost 43.8 basis points to end at 75.066, but did not fall below psychologically important round number 75 and so did not crush morale. It's okay, as long as it falleth not below 75, it has turned up.

Matching the scrofulous dollar the scabrous euro, Frankenstein of fiat currencies, popped back above its 20 dma today (1.4274) but did not close the gap left by the island reversal. Doomed is the word that springeth to mind. The YEN is playing with its 50 dma (121.16c/Y100) and rose today to trade at Y82.54/$ (121.15c/Y100). Not in danger of running away topside.

Dollar appears to have turned up, yet stocks, for all they bounced today like road kill falling off the back of a county clean up truck, have broken. Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) is telling you that by touching bottom of range at G$169.67 (8.208 ounces of gold buy the whole Dow). Like the smell of rain on the wind before the rain arrives, the DiG$ is shouting that stocks are teetering.

I didn't mention it yesterday because I was too busy and I didn't want to upset y'all, but 2 days ago Standard and Poor rating service that rates the creditworthiness of bonds, stated that they were ruminating lowering the credit rating for US government debt. Clearly, somebody big in the Establishment ain't happy, and is sending a message through S&P.

You may not grasp the depth and force of this signal if you understand not that US government debt is always assumed (in the financial and academic world) to be the lowest risk -- virtually risk-free -- instrument in the entire system. Talk about seismic shifts, this is the tectonic plates of the financial world dancing like they'd been dating St. Vitus. This is the sign the Donner Party ignored, "Snow Drifts Ahead." I cannot convey powerfully enough what a shocking warning this constitutes.

Y'all know that I loath alarmists and doom and gloomers, and I look forward to rebuilding a sane and just economy and society after heaven settles accounts with the present treacherous, usurping, predatory, and parasitical set up. Nonetheless, I have to share my alarm about the S&P announcement. Very bad news.

Yet good news fills the world. A few nights ago I heard the first whip poor will of the year.

On this date in 1764 the English Parliament banned the American colonies from printing paper money. Nobody much knows this, and those who do don't want to admit it, but when the Declaration accuses the king of "refusing his assent to laws most wholesome and necessary" this prohibition against paper money was highest on the list. Colonies had been cheating their people and other colonies with paper money since Massachusetts first issued it in 1686. Only after the Continental Congress ruined the country and nearly lost the war with paper currency did statesmen acquire enough courage to ban it in Article I, Sec. 10 of the 1787 constitution. Yet today in outrageous defiance of constitution and laws the Federal Reserve has been granted a government monopoly on issuing fiat money.

Like the devil himself, the friends of paper money never rest.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Monday, April 18, 2011

Why Swap Silver For Gold Now With the Gold SIlver Ratio at 34.47?

Gold Price Close Today : 1492.30
Change : 7.00 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 42.957
Change : 0.391 cents or 0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 34.74
Change : -0.155 or -0.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02879
Change : 0.000128 or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1780.00
Change : -11.50 or -0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 735.20
Change : -34.50 or -4.5%

S&P 500 : 1,305.14
Change : -14.54 or -1.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $169.02
Change : $ (2.73) or -1.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.176
Change : -0.132 or -1.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 284.04
Change : -3.29 or -1.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,201.59
Change : -140.24 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index : 75.49
Change : 61.000 or 420.9%

Y'all pay attention now: this won't be elegant, but it will be fast.

Bunch of y'all email me Friday questioning me why swap silver for gold now? Go to www.the-moneychanger.com and read article linked to homepage, "Why Silver Will Outperform Gold 400%." Here's further explanation. Pay close attention, test on Tuesday:

With gold silver ratio at 70:1, you buy 70 oz. of silver. Wise choice.

When the gold silver ratio hits 35:1, you swap 70 oz. of silver for TWO, not one,

ounces of gold. Twice as many as if you'd bought gold in first place.

No market, internet blowhards notwithstanding, shoots straight

to the moon. The gold silver ratio will see 47 or 50 before it sees 16,

although it will EVENTUALLY drop below 16.

Ratio will, internet blowhards notwithstanding, correct. Will correct

AT LEAST to where it fell out of long triangle at 47.5, maybe

50% of total fall from 84.3 to 35, so back to 59.65.

When ratio reaches 47.5, you swap your two oz. of gold for

95 oz. of silver. You now have 25 more oz (35.7%) than if

you had just lain around in silver the whole time.

Then you do it again when the ratio falls again.

TODAY'S MARKETS:

GOLD and SILVER PRICES today just kept on powering up the gold price added $7.00 on Comex to close at $1,492.30. Silver gained 39.1c and ended Comex at 4295.7c but in the aftermarket is trading 4327.5c. Dear Ones, one thing people learn young drinking is that even when you have a full load in your belly, you cannot actually fly or perform miracles, no matter how you feel. This is fun, this is exciting, but this is moving to a sharp peak by mid-May, most likely.

Yet before gold lies the minimum target, $1,525. The silver price I expect to hit $44 at the least, before the pain commences.

I still recommend y'all swap silver for gold while you have time and before the reaction sets in.

Something's wrong, something's right, and there's a whiff of skunk on the wind.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose 61 basis points today (0.78%) to clear 75 and land at 75.493. Might be a reversal. Rise out of Friday low looks rally-ish. Euro, which we have long suspected was merely a shell of a shell-game, tanked 1.08% today to end at 1.4228. CLEAR island reversal, signaling copious downside, and closed below 20 DMA. Big fall. Yen today fell 0.61% to 82.441/$ (121.3c/100Y).

Sniff of skunk on wind belongs not merely to the polecat US dollar, but also to Palladium and Platinum. Platinum fell 11.50 today and it fell Friday. Palladium fell a muscular $35 today, very stout wound when you begin at $769.70. Friends, this ought not be. Silver and Gold boogeying ought to take their friends Platinum and Palladium alone. Why are they standing around the edges of the dance floor, wallflowering? Bad juju.

STOCKS took an ice-water shower in reality today and fell clean back to 12,200 support and below the 20DMA and nearly below the 50 DMA. Whooo, Nice Government Men don't like it when the magic buying doesn't work, do you? Stocks remain the cyanide in the Great Cabinet of Investment Poison.

On this date in 1861 Col. Robert E. Lee turned down an offer to command the Union armies. He said, after great deliberation, that he could never draw his sword against his native state.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, April 15, 2011

The Gold Price Broke Out, So Buy

Gold Price Close Today : 1,485.30
Gold Price Close 8-Apr : 1,473.40
Change : 11.90 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 4256.6
Silver Price Close 8-Apr : 4060
Change : 196.60 cents or 4.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 34.894
Gold Silver Ratio 8-Apr : 36.291
Change : -1.40 or -3.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02866
Silver Gold Ratio 8-Apr : 0.02756
Change : 0.00110 or 4.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 171.79
Dow in Gold Dollars 8-Apr : $ 173.69
Change : $ (1.91) or -1.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.310
Dow in Gold Ounces 8-Apr : 8.402
Change : -0.09 or -1.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 289.98
Dow in Silver Ounces 8-Apr : 304.93
Change : -14.95 or -4.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,343.16
Dow Industrial 8-Apr : 12,380.05
Change : -36.89 or -0.3%

S&P 500 : 1,319.68
S&P 500 8-Apr : 1,328.17
Change : -8.49 or -0.6%

US Dollar Index : 74.873
US Dollar Index 8-Apr : 74.869
Change : 0.004 or 0.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,791.50
Platinum Price Close 8-Apr : 1,810.90
Change : -19.40 or -1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 769.70
Palladium Price Close 8-Apr : 796.25
Change : -26.55 or -3.3%


Just the facts, ma'am. What says the scoreboard at week's end? The SILVER PRICE blew past everybody else with a 196.6c gain, or 4.8%. The GOLD PRICE gained less in a week of correction. The gold silver ratio fell 3.8%. Stocks and the US dollar were flat as Blundering Ben Bernanke's head.

STOCKS ended the week lower than they began, a net loss. This market has double-topped, and it's doubtful -- as doubtful as a hog learning table manners -- that stocks will go higher before they go lower. The Dow in Gold Dollars has worked down to the verge of support of the last six month's range. Today it closed at G$171.79 or 8.310 ounces of gold to buy the Dow. I won't even talk about stocks in silver, which this week fell from 304.93 ounces to buy the Dow to 289.98, another new low. These indicators are hinting that stocks are about to lose value sharply to silver and gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX stole back today about 2/3 of what it lost yesterday. Watching the dollar the last few days has been almost as much fun as waiting for eggs to hatch. It has been chained in a tight range of 74.65 to 75 -- aww, be generous and call it 75.10. Can't move. This might show the dollar trying to begin bottoming, but if it closes below 74.25, it will sink like a safe pushed off the 17th floor.

Euro could not make any headway against this week's new intraday high at 1.4519, and once again might be making an island reversal. The pride of Japan, the Yen, gained this week at least back to the range it had traded in from November through March. Closed today at Y83.04/$ (120l.42c/Y100).

Nothing much remains to be said about gold. It set up what resembles an upside down head and shoulders from November through March, and broke out this past week through the neckline headed for at least $1,525, maybe $1,600. Y'all can argue with that if you want, but it will get you no further than arguing with a steam roller. Today alone the gold price rose $13.60 to $1,485.30 and in the aftermarket is trading $1,486.40. I checked out the 20 and 200 day moving averages and gold's position relative to those is NOT YET overbought, not at all. That whispers that gold can rise much higher.

Logic and sound trading strategy demand you buy (1) on a correction toward the bottom channel line, or (2) on a breakout. The gold price broke out, so buy.

Volatile SILVER has become manic. Not only did it rise 4.8% this week, it added 90.5c today alone to close on Comex at 4256.6c. In the aftermarket it rose to 4304.5c.

Clearly the SILVER PRICE is on some wild tear I can't quite parse, yet I checked its relation to the 20 and 200 day moving averages, and it has not yet reached the extreme overbought levels of previous peaks. That suggests the silver price can climb quite a bit more. If gold reaches $1,600 and the gold/silver ratio drops to 32, that brings us to $50 silver. Yet some time not too far distant there will come a correction. That's why I recommend locking in your silver profits IN OUNCES OF GOLD by swapping silver for gold now.

SILVER will go higher next week. Seasonal charts warn that some peak may lie close ahead.

SPECIAL OFFER:

Modern issue US commemorative $5 and $10 gold pieces carry no appreciable premium over gold. I bought some and want to move them on, so I can sell them at $372 for the $5 and $744 for the $10 Olympic commemorative. The gold $5 commem contains 0.2418 ounce of gold and the gold $10 contains 0.48375 oz, so I'm selling these at a 3.5% premium over their gold content.

I will sell lots of Seven (7) each $5 gold commems for $2,604 plus $25 shipping. A $10 gold counts as two $5 golds, so you can order one $10 and five $5s and that equals Seven $5s.

I have only forty-seven (47) of the $5s and nine (9) of the $10s. Once they are gone I cannot re-order at these prices.

Here are two other specials:

I have only Fifty-two each Netherlands ten guilders containing 0.1947 oz fine gold. I'll sell these in lots of Eight (8) coins at $299.50 each plus $25.00 shipping, or a total of $2,421. No re-orders or back-orders at these prices, which are 3.5% over melt.

In the back of the drawer were Seven only pre-1915 German 20 marks with 0.2304 ounces of gold each. I will sell this lot of seven for $354.50 apiece plus $25 shipping or a total of $2,506.50 (3.5% premium over gold).

Also hidden back there were 80 Swiss 20 francs and 90 French 20 francs. Twenty francs contain 0.1867 troy ounce of fine gold. I'll sell them at a 4.5% premium over gold or $290.00 each in lots of ten coins each plus $25 shipping for $2,925.00.

I also have a lot of Fifteen Italian 20 Lira, same 0.1867 troy ounce of gold, as a single lot for $4,375.00 with shipping.

We will not enter orders for less than the minimums shown above. You may order more than one lot, but not in increments of less than one lot. That is, you may order 8 Netherlands ten guilders or 16 or 24, but not 9 or 17.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail. Spot gold basis for all prices above is $1,486.40. Ordering Instructions:

1. You may order only by e-mail to franklin@the-moneychanger.com

Your email MUST include your complete name, address, and phone number. Please mention you saw this offer on goldprice.org. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

3. "First-come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by email.

4. If your order is filled , we will email you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, you order was not filled.

5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

6. We will allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month. Next week several of us will be out of the office and so we will not make any shipments next week (18-22 April).

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Thursday, April 14, 2011

Gold Price Will Move Higher Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1471.70
Change : 16.80 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 41.661
Change : 1.426 cents or 3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 35.33
Change : -0.834 or -2.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02831
Change : 0.000653 or 2.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1795.60
Change : 23.10 or 1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 773.05
Change : 9.95 or 1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,314.52
Change : 0.11 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $172.56
Change : $ (1.77) or -1.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.348
Change : -0.086 or -1.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 294.88
Change : 0.24 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,285.15
Change : 14.16 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 74.69
Change : -0.291 or -0.4%

I don't get paid to worry, but I worry anyway. The GOLD PRICE performed splendidly today. By the time Comex locked the door gold had added $16.80 to close at $1,471.70.

So what am I worrying about? That is a fine first step to resuming a rally, but reached only the last high close at $1,473.40. What if it's a double top, made specially to confound and mislead me? If the rally is resuming, gold tomorrow will jump through $1,475.00, and must not fall below $1,455.

I will commit myself: gold will move higher tomorrow. There's too much steam under this move, BICBW.

The SILVER PRICE rose a jaw-dropping 3.4% today, up 142.6c to 4166.1. High came at 4219c. This makes a new high close for silver and a new low for the gold/silver ratio at 35.326.

Okay, I confess this is wilder than I can handle, stronger than a garlic milkshake, and I haven't the least clue how long it will run or where it will reach. Clearly gold should clear $1,500 and rise further. Silver might reach 4400c or 4600c, there simply are no yardsticks to measure this move. Sorry. However, the peak season is upon us and surely they will both have peaked and slowed down by mid or end May. Surely, BICBW.

Underlying all my thoughts is the conviction (there's a dangerous word) that this rally will power ahead substantially, and that today's closes do not constitute a double top in gold. Tomorrow will immediately and directly inform us, because if that gold drops below $1,455, the buying panic will become a selling panic.

Ain't this fun?

Watching the US DOLLAR today was like watching racing snails darting around the track. It keeps on creeping lower. Ladies and Gentlemen, 'tis not force majeure of the market driving it lower, 'tis the rotten Fed and the administration letting it fall lower. At 74.689 (down 29.1 basis points this day) the dollar stands smack on its last low. Once again today it tried to rally, actually reached higher than yesterday, (75.15 against 75.10), but again collapsed as yesterday. Time to fish or cut bait: dollar holds here or sinks to 74, then 70.70.

Face it: the administration and the Fed are depreciating your wealth and your currency to solve problems they created. Clever idea, balancing their mistakes on your back, Mushrooms.

Euro has struck a roadblock at 1,450. Uptrend is unbroken. Stands now at 1.4489. Yen penetrated its 200 DMA heading upward and now stands at Y83.44/$ (118.94c/Y100). Looks like the Nice Government Men in Japan drove it down a bit too far.

And if you tire of the snail race in the US dollar, move on over to the STOCK track. The mighty Dow rose 14.16 points to 12,285.15. The S&P500 -- that's the one with the lightning bolts painted on its shell -- gained 0.11 to 1,314.52. Basically that's about as much as a rounding error.

Stocks traded below the waterline all day, and only jumped up at day's end. Whoa! Whose fingerprints are those? Could they belong to the NGM?

On this day in 1912 the passenger liner Titanic, on its maiden voyage, hit an iceberg and began to sink. Widely advertised as unsinkable thanks to its advanced engineering, it sank anyway, taking 1,517 lives to the bottom. 700 survived. So much for trusting technology.

On this day in 1995 Burl Ives died. Y'all are probably too young to remember him, but he acted in hundreds of movies, usually with his guitar in hand. He was almost always fun.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
Phone: (888) 218-9226 or (931) 766-6066

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Wednesday, April 13, 2011

If Gold Price Trades Below $1,450 Tomorrow, it Will Likely Signify Lower Prices Coming

Editors Note: Please note we posted incorrect gold and silver prices in Franklin Sanders Commentary yesterday, due to no fault of Franklin Sanders. The correct prices are now posted. Our apologies for any confusion caused. If only gold was 1242 and silver 18.59, I think we can safely say you will never see those prices for gold and silver again on goldprice.org!

Gold Price Close Today : 1454.90
Change : 2.00 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 40.235
Change : 0.177 cents or 0.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 36.16
Change : -0.110 or -0.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02765
Change : 0.000084 or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1772.50
Change : -0.70 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 763.10
Change : -0.40 or -0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,314.41
Change : 0.25 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.35
Change : $ (0.12) or -0.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.434
Change : -0.006 or -0.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 304.98
Change : 0.17 or 0.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,270.99
Change : 7.41 or 0.1%

US Dollar Index : 74.99
Change : 0.139 or 0.2%

If you were waiting for a meaningful message from the US DOLLAR INDEX today, you might as well go search the Collected Speeches of Barak Obama for wisdom. Today it rose 13.9 basis points to trade now at 74.992. Notice, if you are not already bored to death by this performance, that it just could not QUITE close over the magic 75.00 number. The stench of death and weakness clogs the air.

The dollar's leprous colleagues, the euro and yen, did not edify, either. The euro closed at 1.4441, and appears to have hit its new high yesterday and reversed, but follow thru must confirm. The yen has with great spirit and verve rallied up to its 200 day moving average. Don't count on it penetrating. Lats price I saw was 83.86Y/$ (119.24c/Y100).

A reader rebuked me for my clumsy description of the relation between bonds and yields. It is true that the nominal value of a bond depends on the interest rate stated on its face, but that wasn't what I was trying to point out. Rather, the price of bonds varies inversely with market interest rates. If rates rise, bond prices fall; if rates fall, bond prices rise. Yield is what the bond will in fact return, taking into account its stated interest rate and market rates. Stated rate never changes, but yield changes with market interest rates. So when bond prices fall without the Federal Reserve changing its benchmark interest rate, that implies the market expects (1) lower dollar prices, or (2) higher interest rates.

Test on Friday.

STOCKS did nothing to build confidence today. Dow's low came at 12,224.45, a little below its 20 day moving average (12,231), then closed 7.41 gigantic points higher at 12,270.99. S&P500 darted, bobbed, and weaved at a perfectly glacial pace, adding 0.25 -- yes, 1/4 of a point -- to close 1,314.41.

I feel sort of ashamed about all badmouthing stocks so much -- feel sorry for them, so I'll try to say something really nice about them today. STOCKS are the mercurochrome in the Investing Medicine Chest, but they could hurt worse. They could be the tincture of iodine.

I don't have a lot of good news about GOLD and SILVER for y'all, but I do have some richly exciting suspicions.

The GOLD PRICE rose $2.00 by the time Comex closed, to $1,454.90. High struck at $1,462, low at $1,450.95. This is not strong at all, but it's not a breakdown, either. Two things can happen from here: gold can rise, or gold can fall.

Wait, wait, that's not as dumb as it sounds. Gold's behavior could be consistent with two opposite outcomes. First, the 5 day chart might be showing us a completed A-B-C correction, with the low yesterday at $1,444. Arguing for that is the uptrend in place (higher highs and lower lows) since Tuesday's low. The rise we saw from yesterday's low to today's high could be the first leg up of a renewed rally. Exciting suspicion, but I have yet another. First, tho, the "Gold can fall" outlook. Gold failed to meet, let alone better, this week's high, so Monday's key reversal has still capped the market and will force it further down.

If gold trades below $1,450 tomorrow, it will likely signify lower prices coming. Trading above $1,465 makes higher prices and a renewed rally more likely.

The SILVER PRICE offers more exciting suspicions still. As with gold, the 5day chart shows an embryonic uptrend from Tuesday's low. It may have completed a correction. More than that, silver closed up 17.7c (no big deal) at 4023.5cd, yet in the aftermarket has traded up nearly 40c to 4062c. And that trading from yesterday's low looks like a rallying move.

Yet these remain only exciting suspicions, o'ershadowed by that gold's Monday key reversal, and silver's failure to rise today above yesterday's high.

Silver must hold 3960c or tumble quickly earthward. Overhead, clearing 4080c and trading on up would signal the correction is very small and the rally is resuming.

On this day in 1742 Georg Fredric Handel's Messiah was performed for the first time in Dublin. The fellow who wrote the libretto, whose name nobody remembers, wrote to a friend saying that his libretto was magnificent but he wasn't so sure about Handel's music. He might have spoken a bit prematurely.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Gold Price Must Close Higher Tomorrow and Step Out Smartly to a New High to Contradict that Key Reversal

Editors Note: Please note we posted incorrect gold and silver prices in Franklin Sanders Commentary yesterday, due to no fault of Franklin Sanders. The correct prices are now posted. Our apologies for any confusion caused. If only gold was 1242 and silver 18.59, I think we can safely say you will never see those prices for gold and silver again on goldprice.org!

Gold Price Close Today : 1467.40
Change : (6.00) or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 40.604
Change : 0.004 cents or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 36.14
Change : -0.151 or -0.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02767
Change : 0.000115 or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1781.50
Change : -29.40 or -1.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 773.75
Change : -22.50 or -2.8%

S&P 500 : 1,324.46
Change : -3.71 or -0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.42
Change : $ 0.74 or 0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.437
Change : 0.036 or 0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 304.92
Change : 0.03 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,381.11
Change : 1.06 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 75.056
Change : 0.187 or 0.2%



Today is Miss Susan's birthday, so I'll have to make this quick. She wanted to cook her own birthday supper for the whole family, but a daughter and daughter-in-law vetoed that. Coincidentally, on this day 150 years ago began the First War for Southern Independence.

'Twas an odd day, and you'll wear out your fingers and your patience scrabbling around for invisible reasons behind baffling contradictions.

The DOLLAR INDEX remains in its wallow, but is clearly studying wallowing lower. After an overnight high at 75.20, the dollar wallowed deeper and deeper into the mud. Today's 74.704 low was lower still than Friday's. Both the failure to breach 75.20 and the edgey lower low forecast more wallowing to come, and a lot lower dollar.

Meanwhile wrap -- nay, TRY to wrap -- your understanding around this little paradox. Bond values vary inversely with bond yields. A $1,000 bond due in a year that pays 10% interest is worth less than the same bond that pays 5% interest. Yet today the dollar sinks, reflecting a shrinking value and, one might conclude, a shrinking BOND value, since the 30 year US treasury bond is denominated in US dollars. Conclude again: today the 30 yr bond rose 0.71%, gapping up, while the yield fell. That also implies the market is expecting interest rates to fall and the US dollar to rise.

Gives me a headache merely to look upon these charts.

Meanwhile the euro, scrofulous jury-rigged currency of the cobbled-up European Union whose members boast 3 bankrupt countries and another 3 or four bankruptcy candidates, ROSE today to a new high for the move, 1.4474. And the yen jumped to 83.561Y/$ (119.67c/100Y).

Some say that central banking is the best practical argument for the necessity of hell. I remain neutral on that point.

STOCKS took a bad whipping with a big stick. Dow lost nearly 1% or 117.53 points to 12,263.58 and the S&P500 followed right along, losing 10.3 points to close at 1,314.16.

Now I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, and not slick and smart like them Wall Street fellows with the shiny, pointy shoes (New York Fence Climbers, we call 'em), but if I were painting a chart that had made a double top and rolled over, it would strongly resemble the Dow chart. Today's plunge fractured support above 12,300, and dropped toward the 20 day moving average (12,198), first warning of a trend change. 50 DMA lieth not far removed, a close 12,170. Another drunken day like today sends the Dow slicing through both of them and leaves Wall Street investing geniuses with a tolerable lot of explaining to do.

Stocks remain the Lucretia Borgia 2008 merlot at the Great Wine Bar of Investing.

The GOLD PRICE followed through on the downside today, losing 14.50 to end at $1,452.90 on Comex.

Behold, this is good, and this is bad! Good, in that it fell not through $1,445 but made a low at only $1,446.30 and closed above $1,450. Bad, in that it could not close through $1,455 resistance.

Break the rules only at the risk of breaking your own neck. The four words an investor is most likely to hear shortly before he loses copious sums are, "It's different this time." It rarely is, hence why although gold "feels" much stronger, I confess that today's close contributes the second and final nail of a key reversal. Yesterday the break into new high territory with a lower close for the day, followed by a lower close today. Unless gainsaid by higher, much higher, closes, gold will trade earthward for a time.

Yet recall that the upward trading channel will contain gold all the way down to $1,430, so without a close below that level 'twill not seriously cheapen gold.

Up above the gold price would have to close higher tomorrow and step out smartly to a new high to contradict that key reversal.

Friends, looks like the market's handing y'all a wonderful buying opportunity.

SILVER, like gold, attempted a rally to 4085c but failed. Today's low came about where yesterday's appeared, 3966c, and Comex closed above 4000c at 4005.8c, but that still meant losing 54.6c.

Here's one possibility: silver made its first corrective wave yesterday, rallied in the B-wave today, and tomorrow will complete the last down wave. However, it cannot fall below 3900c. If it does, then more downside lies in its future.

Notice that the gold/silver ratio barely rose today, to 36.270.

I am neither bold enough nor foolhardy enough to call Monday the high for this move in silver and gold. If that is true, few witnesses have yet come forward. Difficulty is that silver is working in what appears to be a wild third wave up, in territory not traversed since 1981. Tricky to discern whether silver will yet reach for 4400c or 4600c, or a stout correction has begun.

It goes without saying that if silver rises above 4200c then we can back-burner the correction worries for a while.

On this day in 1861 Abraham "Genocide" Lincoln maneuvered the Confederate States into firing on Fort Sumter so that he would have an excuse to invade the South. Confederate peace commissioners had already been to Washington to negotiate the transfer of forts and magazines on their territory peacefully. Lincoln dallied, delayed, mumbled out of both sides of his mouth, but refused to come to terms. After promising he would not re-supply Sumter, he sent a naval expedition to do so. Let's see: he sends a foreign navy to invade a sovereign nation's soil, after he promised not to and his own cabinet opposed the move. Clever move, though, since the misunderstood APPEARANCE of the CSA firing "first" shots at Sumter would give him an excuse to invade the South.

And that's how it was done.

On this day in 1864 Confederate Genl. N. Bedford Forrest captured Fort Pillow, Tennessee. Yankee war propaganda ran lurid reports that Forrest had "slaughtered" the black troops there. This lie is still repeated today, but is easily refuted. In 1871 or 1872, shortly after the war ended and when one can surmise Forrest found few friends in the US congress, he was summoned to testify before a congressional committee about Fort Pillow. After that testimony congress dropped the issue. Is it likely that Forrest's virulent enemies would have dropped the issue if there were even a mouse-burp of truth to the charges that he shot troops -- black or white -- seeking to surrender?

AMERICAN CULTURAL MILESTONES: On this day in 1954 Joe Turner released "Shake, Rattle, and Roll." Argentums et aurum comparanda sunt --

-- Silver and gold must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger © 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Gold and Silver Prices Had a Rough Day

Gold Price Close Today : 1467.40
Change : (6.00) or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 40.604
Change : 0.004 cents or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 36.14
Change : -0.151 or -0.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02767
Change : 0.000115 or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1781.50
Change : -29.40 or -1.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 773.75
Change : -22.50 or -2.8%

S&P 500 : 1,324.46
Change : -3.71 or -0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $174.42
Change : $ 0.74 or 0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.437
Change : 0.036 or 0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 304.92
Change : 0.03 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,381.11
Change : 1.06 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 75.056
Change : 0.187 or 0.2%

I'm late because at the end of the day the Spirit of Trading moved on the minds of multitudes to call all at once. This fell amidst a magnificent rain storm with raging vertical lightning. Beautiful to watch, but the cloud cover baffles my satellite internet, so I had to rush home where I have cable internet. About that time my wife Susan rings up wanting 5 lb. of frozen hamburger out of the refrigerator in the barn across the road. Greater love hath no man for his wife than he will walk bareheaded thru a drizzling rain for frozen hamburger. But it was truly exhilarating, a cold spring rain filled with singing birds, and the whole world smelled clean. That's quite a trick with a barn, even for Spring.

The US DOLLAR INDEX continues in its coma: high of 75.08, low 74.90, no progress, no movement, up a chiselling 18.7 basis points. Clearly 75.10 has become the challenge for the dollar to overcome, but I wouldn't run out and lay a lot of money on the dollar breaching that right away. If the dollar foots around with 74.80 it will certainly hit 74.23, and maybe the low 70s. Euro fiddled today, closing 1.4436, down 0.32%. Yen closed 84.42Y/$ (118.46c/100 yen).

STOCKS again tried to rally but failed. 12,450 has trapped the Dow, which has thrice tried to pierce that barrier. Now maybe that's a sign of strength, but up 1.06 points seemeth not strong to me. S&P fell 3.71 to 1324.46. Dow closed 12,381.11.

Stocks: y'all just hang on to them. Sooner or later they'll pry you away from all your capital.

GOLD and SILVER had a rough day. Now before I say anything, I tell y'all I don’t want a lot of steaming emails about my about-face, because I'm not making one. I've been telling y'all that this wild ride could end at any time, and one day it will. Today might have been that day, but only half the testimony has been taken.

The GOLD PRICE touched its high at $1,475.65 today. After the New York open it climbed off $1,465 over $1,470, but very shortly. It then bumped along from 10:00 to 2:30 between $1,465 and $1,470. Comex closed down $6.00 at $1,467.40. Here in the late (7:40 CDT) aftermarket gold has traded as low as $1,456.65.

The five day chart draws plain lines in the sand. Gold needs to cling to $1,455, but gold could tumble clean to $1,430 without falling out of its upward channel.

But a bigger question looms: was today the first half of a dreaded key reversal? Gold barely broke into new high territory with a lower close for the day. A lower close tomorrow would put the second and final piece of the key reversal in place. There's no way to know until we see how the market plays out tomorrow. Clearly a push above $1,470 gainsays all this key reversal worry, or any close higher than today's.

If life were easy everybody would do it. The SILVER PRICE did not make anything easy for us today.

It reached a new intraday high at 4195c (!), but on Comex closed at 4060.4, up a razor-thin 4/10c. What is that?

The daily chart tells an even raggeder tale. That new high came about 1:00 a.m. NY time, and although it traded on the plateau of 4100c from 6:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. the day decidedly plunged. Ahh, break to new high ground, but no lower close -- or can you call a 4/10c rise "higher". Is that legit? Sensible?

An hour after Comex shut the doors silver plunged to 3972c, then jumped back above 4000c.

Now all this might say -- along with the seasonal expectation -- that silver has topped. But it could just as clearly (and probably does) say that silver had a great run last week and needs a breather this week.

How do we tell the difference? It would be good if silver held the line above 3950, but 3800c would do.

You might complain that I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, but that's how I keep from biting my tongue. A little correction has arrived. As long as gold doesn't fall below $1,430 nor silver below 3800c, it will be brief.

By the way, the gold/silver ratio made yet another new low today at 36.139.

I have one leetle chicken bone in my craw I have to cough out, and that's the reason why these internet silver puffers bother me like bull chiggers. They froth and fume about how silver is going to the moon, and their chatter pulls in a lot of ignorant people who just see the shooting star and understand nothing of what set it on that trajectory. So they buy, then they don't get rich overnight, silver corrects, and they all panic. They have been shorn, just like sheep, thanks to the puffery. Worse, they don't understand silver's volatility, so they'll probably sell at the bottom of a correction, just in time to see it launch into orbit again.

Fear and greed don't strike me as very flattering or profitable guides for investing.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.



Friday, April 08, 2011

Silver Price rose 7.6% this Week, the Gold Price Rose 3.2%

Gold Price Close Today : 1,473.40
Gold Price Close 1-Apr : 1,428.10
Change : 45.30 or 3.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 4060
Silver Price Close 1-Apr : 3773.7
Change : 286.30 cents or 7.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 36.29
Gold Silver Ratio 1-Apr : 37.84
Change : -1.55 or -4.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.02756
Silver Gold Ratio 1-Apr : 0.02642
Change : 0.00113 or 4.3%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 173.69
Dow in Gold Dollars 1-Apr : $ 179.15
Change : $ (5.46) or -3.0%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.402
Dow in Gold Ounces 1-Apr : 8.667
Change : -0.26 or -3.0%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 304.93
Dow in Silver Ounces 1-Apr : 327.97
Change : -23.05 or -7.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,380.05
Dow Industrial 1-Apr : 12,376.72
Change : 3.33 or 0.0%

S&P 500 : 1,328.17
S&P 500 1-Apr : 1,332.41
Change : -4.24 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index : 75.869
US Dollar Index 1-Apr : 75.854
Change : 0.02 or 0.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,810.90
Platinum Price Close 1-Apr : 1,768.50
Change : 42.40 or 2.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 796.25
Palladium Price Close 1-Apr : 774.50
Change : 21.75 or 2.8%

Lo! the SILVER PRICE rose 7.6% this week, the GOLD PRICE rose 3.2%, stocks spun their wheels noisily and slung mud everywhere without ever gaining any traction, the white metals jumped, and the US Dollar Index proved once again that only a fool trusts Ben Bernanke.

The SILVER PRICE swelled 2.7% today, 105.8c, to close Comex at 4060c. Like Humphrey Bogart brushing through one of those bead curtains in a North African bar, silver brushed past 3965c resistance overnight. By the time New York opened it was already trading at 4020c. When silver bears tried to sell it off, they merely wasted their money and silver brushed them aside, too, and kept on climbing. I reckon silver looked around and figured that if it was this easy to clear 4000c, it might as well go for 4100c. It did, and now is trading around 40.90.

The GOLD PRICE wasted no time once it jumped the barrier at $1,460 - 1,465. Might as well add another ten bucks! $14.90 higher gold closed at $1,473.40.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO touched a new low today at 36.29.

How much further can they rise? The gold price won't slow down before it hits $1,525, maybe $1,600, and the silver price has no ceiling above except a bull market trendline about 4600c. If you don't have some, you'd better buy some. Of both. Next week they will rise more.

That US DOLLAR INDEX finally found the trap door in the floor and fell through it today. Yep, made a new low at 74.848, and a new low close, and trades now at 74.869, down 71.6 basis points from yesterday. Since the last low occurred in March at 75.25, one is forced to conclude that the Dollar will pay a visit to the December 2009 low at 74.23, or maybe go whole-hog for
the 70.70 low. Yen now has fallen to 84.73/$ (118.02c/100 yen), suggesting it will fall much further. In a burst of logic, common sense, and insightful judgment the euro jumped up 1.24% today to 1.4483 on news that Portugal has gone paws up and must go begging to Brussels for a bail-out. Not much, $100 billion or so. Yea, man, this is the sort of event that inspires confidence in me about the euro. Looney.

Dollar will move lower, which paves the way for higher silver and gold prices.

STOCKS have rounded a double top this week, and put in another ragged performance today to prove it. Week's high came at 12,450.93 for the Dow, which illustrates how important it is to insist that a new high exceed the last high by 2%. Back in February the Dow topped at 12,391.29, and this week's 12,450.93 high didn't even approach the 12,639 needed for a 2% betterment. Now the Dow has resumed its old habit of making a broadening or megaphone top, with flat or slightly higher highs and lower lows.

Stocks are really going to shine and outperform every other investment -- in about 5 - 10 years after they have completed their bear market. Until then they remain a croker-sack swimsuit in the Shop Of Attractive Investment Swimwear.

Here's an addition to my comments yesterday about the US government shutting down. EVEN IF it does shut down, it won't make as much difference as a gnat's eyelash. For 50 years, nay, eighty, they have built a structure that must inflate and spend, or die. If they close a day, a week, a month, makes no never-mind, they will return and spend and inflate some more. They can do no other.

Joe Stalin said that no ruling class voluntarily leaves the stage of history. This one won't, either. Even when they are shoved aside, they will still be posturing and play-acting.

This is the same government that tells you it's okay to drink radioactive milk but dangerous to drink raw milk. Are y'all really going to miss 'em?

Clearly some of y'all suffer from definitional confusion, since y'all expressed surprise or reservations about my calling the usurpation in Washington the "yankee government." First of all, it's an IMPERIAL yankee government, because the US has become an empire, no longer a federation of republics and certainly not a (har-de-har-har) "democracy."

Second, y'all can't tell the difference between a "yankee" and a "northerner." A yankee is somebody who knows everything about everything and is not backward to tell you how they do it up north, even when you never ask him and surely don’t want him to tell you. In other words, a meddling, bullying, busybody.

A "northerner" on the other hand, is someone unfortunately born north of the Mason Dixon line. Most people from up North are "northerners", while Washington is full of yankees -- some of 'em even from the South.

On this day in 1935 the New Deal (also known as the "Raw Deal") congress approved the WPA or Works Progress Administration to create make work jobs and thus relieve unemployment. Back then Americans were no dupes, so even the fellows who got the jobs leaning on shovels re-named it "We Piddle Around."

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.