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Monday, October 31, 2011

Gold Price Dropped As Dollar Rallies, Bull Market Is Alive and Well, Just Undergoing a Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 1724.20
Change : (22.00) or -1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 3433.7
Change : 93.3 cents or -2.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 50.21
Change : 0.705 or 1.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01991
Change : -0.000283 or -1.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1606.10
Change : -39.40 or -2.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 649.00
Change : -14.85 or -2.2%

S&P 500 : 1,253.31
Change : -31.78 or -2.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $143.33
Change : $ (1.45) or -1.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.934
Change : -0.070 or -1.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 348.17
Change : 1.38 or 0.4%

Dow Industrial : 11,955.01
Change : -276.10 or -2.3%

US Dollar Index : 76.55
Change : 1.454 or 1.9%

GOLD and SILVER are the currency alternatives -- competitors, if you will -- to the euro, yen, and dollar. Thus when the dollar rallies, you can expect silver and gold to take body blows.

Today they did. THE GOLD PRICE dropped $22 (1.3%) to turn off the Comex lights at $1,724.20. Big drop had already happened on the other side of the world time the globe's turning brought midnight Sunday/Monday to the Eastern Time zone. That's the great thing about government surprise parties, no way to decline the invitation.

Most of the day GOLD traded from $1,725 to $1,712, although the low came before New York opened at $1,704.60. Closing under that $1,725 support offered no encouragement to gold bugs, and will likely knock prices again tomorrow. $1,705 is the support to watch.

That marks the upper boundary line of gold's trading from the end-September collapse until last week's upside breakdown. Falling through that mark opens a trapdoor for the GOLD PRICE with a $1,650 basement. $1,605 is possible, and home to the 150 day moving average.

The SILVER PRICE, more manic as usual, lost 2.6% today, 93.3c, to close Comex at 3433.70, beneath 3450c support. Likely target is 3200-ish, about where 'twill meet the rising trend line. If it falls thru that, silver holders will be writhing in pain.

BOTTOM LINE: Bull market is alive and well, just undergoing a correction. Y'all hang on -- don't let that bull shake you off!

I'm going to share a little secret with y'all. I've been working on a book. For 15 years. No, not about silver and gold, hardly mentions them. Rather, it’s the tale of moving with my family to a farm waaayout in the country, so far out you have to order sunlight from Sears and Roebuck. It exposes all, from colossal mistakes to miniscule successes. I'll tell you where the dead animals are buried, and who (probably) killed them. You'll learn how we got to 27 dogs at one point, how we fell into the pig business, and how not to herd sheep (Hint: gotta have a Border Collie). You'll hear about the joys -- Bodacious Hoedowns and Agrarian Challenges -- and the sorrows -- how many chickens can a skunk kill? You will also no doubt find it even easier to laugh at me than I do to laugh at myself, and you will meet my whole family and others for miles around.

Stocks stir my soul to poetry:

Under water everywhere,

and all th'indices did shrink!

Underwater everywhere,

and every stock did stink!

Last Thursday I wrote that you should look around and fix the sight in you mind, because for stocks that was as good as it gets. Now y'all see why I said that. Today the Dow closed at 11,955.01 and lost 2.26% or 276.1 points, all but 85.97 points of what it gained in the last two days. It lost 76.25% of the last two days gains.

S&P500 lost 31.78 or 2.47% today.

Now all those who bought the euro "fix" are beginning to sober up, rub their eyes, and wonder what in the WORLD they were thinking to buy stocks like that?

Now I bet y'all understand why they serve free drinks in casinos.

I was wondering when the Nice Government Men in Japan were going to act to save their export addicted economy, and they did this morning. I will forbear the obvious martial arts and samurai and ninja references, and observe merely that they slapped the yen winded. It dropped to 127.92 c/Y100 (Y78.17/$1, down 3.02% from Friday. Since it was a government surprise party, they threw it over the weekend for the rest of us) so that it all happened at once and beat the longs senseless. 'Twill be a while before they go long yen again. Chart damage will last a while, too.

Yet the Japanese only set the stage for more trouble down the road, since they did not announce, like the pragmatic Swiss, that they would not tolerate the yen over such and such a rate. Thus they again have to make another surprise raid on their own currency.

Central banking is NOT the road to currency stability.

Euro's day in the sun is over, too. Japanese move today sent money screaming into dollars for safety, so the Euro gapped down -- largely -- below its 200 DMA (1.40.86) then fell to the 50 DMA (1.3842) for good measure, wiping out all the last week's gains. Closed at 1.3852, down 2.1%.

And who was the gainer in all this, save the US dollar, the currency everyone loves to hate but buys anyway. Dollar bounded up off 75 to end the day up 145.4 basis points (1.87%) at 76.551, leaving the last two days behind as a spike bottom and suspected turnaround -- as suspect as a cat with yellow feathers on his chin when your canary goes missing.

For a while at least, the dollar will rally. Until the next crisis, which might be two days or two weeks or two months or two minutes, but surely will come.

Today will be the last day I will send a commentary until 8 November. I'll miss y'all, but I have to attend a timber framing class.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, October 28, 2011

14 February - Gold Price Remains in a Bull Market the Longer it Drags the More Likely it will Resolve Upwards

For today's gold price commentary please click the link below:


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Important Note from Gold Price Editor
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Due to a technical problem we are unable to update Franklin Sanders commentary in the iphone and android applications, however we will post a link to the mobile site version of the commentary each day in this last post and will issue an update of the iphone and android apps in the near future which will fix this problem. Thankyou for your understanding.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Gold Price Rose $134.80 (8.3%) Over Five Straight Days, How High Will It Go?

Gold Price Close Today : 1746.70
Change : 24.00 or 1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 3509.6
Change : 180.4 cents or 5.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 49.77
Change : -1.976 or -3.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.02009
Change : 0.000767 or 4.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1637.00
Change : 45.30 or 2.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 666.25
Change : 20.10 or 3.1%

S&P 500 : 1,284.59
Change : 42.59 or 3.4%

Dow In GOLD$ : $144.49
Change : $ 2.08 or 1.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.989
Change : 0.100 or 1.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 347.86
Change : -8.65 or -2.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,208.55
Change : 339.51 or 2.9%

US Dollar Index : 75.04
Change : -1.209 or -1.6%

The GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE have just proven in the last few days that while I might be a metals optimist, I am not a wild-eyed optimist. What? Well, I caught those upside down head and shoulders patterns on their daily charts, but I far, far underestimated how far they would jump. I didn't reckon gold would jump much farther than $1,725 or silver than 3400c.

But just look at today. The GOLD PRICE has risen $134.80 (8.3%) over five straight days, from $1,611.90 to $1,746.70 today (up $24 or 1.4%).

Over the same time SILVER has risen 482.9c (16%) from 3026 to 3509.5c today (up 180.4c or 5.4%).

Folks, that's as good as it gets.

That doesn't guarantee that metals will fall, but think about it. The GOLD PRICE today worked through its 50 DMA (1740.66) and has just about reached the spot where it broke down in late September. Limit to this is $1,775, maybe $1,800 at most, then some sort of correction will take hold.

Course I'm not dogmatic about my views. If GOLD passes $1,800 for two days, I'll gladly put on a grin like a jackass eating sawbriers and say I was wrong and it's going up after all. That's the least I could do. And I'm always willing to do the least.

The SILVER PRICE has been ratcheting up stepwise, bursting through first one and then the next resistance. Today it was stopped just under 3550c with a 3536c high.

SILVER has now left in the dust its 300 dma (3251c) and is drawing a bead on its 200 DMA (3628), with the 50 DMA at 3632). It can easily reach that, but about 3825 it will smack its face right into the downtrend line from the August high, and that might just flatten silver's nose.

Okay, I am slap out of metaphors so I'm going to have to wrap this burrito up. Expect a couple of more up days out of SILVER and GOLD, but keep an eye peeled for a correction.

Y'all take a look around, and fix the sight in your minds, because what you are seeing is AS GOOD AS IT GETS. As good as it gets for stocks and the euro, anyway. Forget not, neither lay aside the proverb, "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Today came the news, about the "fix" for the European sovereign debt crisis. Today, maybe tomorrow, comes your chance to sell stocks and euros. It don't get no better than this.

For all the Dow rose today 2.8%, the Dow in Gold Dollars rose only 1.5% to G$144.65 (6.997 oz). This is a lower high than last Friday's $148.76 (7.196 oz). Unless DiG$ can close above that high, they are fated, yea, doomed to lose value against gold. For stocks, this is as good as it gets.

STOCKS rose like mad today on news that the European sovereign debt crisis (read: "bank solvency crisis") had been solved by a Bucket (bail out fund) worth 250 bn. Euros that will be leveraged 4 or 5 times, producing an equivalent one trillion euros.

Did I just write that? Do this chuckleheads actually believe that they by leverage they will get OUT of the miry swamp that leverage got them INTO?

Ahhhh, it doesn't end there. Where will the money come from to fill up the bucket so the Bucket can buy the bad debts from the banks? Well, they'll have to BORROW it, which means they go into an already sluggish capital market and throw huge new demands on it and crowd out business borrowers and make credit tighter still. Great idea.

Maybe the Chinese will save them? Yeah, that's it, Europe will trick the Chinese into buying their rotten bonds backed by rotten sovereign debt, and the Chinese won't notice that at all, right? Yeah, right, those Chinese are notoriously bad with numbers and business.

This is fun, but I won't prolong it because it's too easy. It's like shooting holes in Swiss cheese -- no challenge. It's enough to make me stop calling myself a natural born fool. These European fools are giving fooldom a bad name.

End result of this deal will be LOTS more Euros born into circulation, which for gold and silver will be like pouring liquid manure on kudzu. Y'all know how to plant kudzu, right? Drop it and run.

This "deal" is nothing but a public relations scarecrow. If it didn't have Sarcophagus and Ferkel holding up its arms and kicking its legs along, it would flop dead on its face. And will, before too long.

STOCKS burst through 11,900 resistance today and raced upward a massive 339.51 points (2.8%) to close at 12,208.55. S&P gained way more, up 542.59 points or 5.26% to 1,284.59.

Any of y'all ever been drunk? Yes, I know that nice folks like y'all don't do that sort of thing, buy maybe y'all had a friend that did that once and told you about it. Anyway, a drunk rides a curve. More you drink, better it gets, until pretty soon you are King Of The World and it just don't get no better.

It sure don't. When gravity resumes control on the downside of that curve, oh, my, you go down very fast, to a very low destination.

So after the drunk of the euro "fix" wears off, in a day or so, stocks will drop as fast as they rose. If I am correct and diamond top has already been posted in stocks, stocks will rally to about 12,500 and fail. Now I could have drawn that diamond wrong, and it could be bigger than that, and the Dow could rally to 12,800. Either way, the outcome will be the same as stocks sink like your car keys out of your shirt pocket over the side of the bass boat, seeking the deep bottom of the lake in a hurry.

Were I a fan of the US DOLLAR and long dollars, I'd be pretty sore today. Dollar lost a massy 120.9 basis points (1.56%) to end at 75.037. That sure enough looks bad, slicing through that 200 day moving average (75.79) like a samurai sword through half-set jello.

Now the dollar might find its feet here in the next or so, or it might fall as far as 74.00 and the bottom boundary of the trading range. Fall thru that, and the dollar has emphatically turned down. Until that happens the dollar's rally remains in limbo.

Y'all ever wonder why I waste my time talking about fiat currency trash like the dollar, yen, and euro? Simply because those weaklings are -- get this -- gold and silver's "competition." At least, for a little longer.

As y'all have guessed, the euro gapped up today, burst through its 200 dma (140.79) like it was wet paper, and ended up 2.09% at 141.93. Look around, cause this is as good as it gets. Euro left a gap at 143.50 when it broke down, so might yet trade that high. Rationally, however, the "fix" has weakened the euro the banking system, and the economy far worse than the only real cure would have done: a complete debt jubilee and write off of all the unpayable debt. A clean start, paid by the culprits, the banks and the folks who took a very poor chance on a government, any government, keeping its word. Those people need to be weeded out of the financial and economic gene pool.

The Yen rose to another all time high against the US dollar, to 131.67c/Y100 (Y75.95=$1), up 0.31% and straining at the bit to go higher.

On 27 October 1787 the first of the Federalist Papers appeared in the New York Independence. The 85 essays, written by Alexander "Central Bank" Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay, were published under the pen name "Publius." They offer grand insight into what the drafters of the 1787 constitution intended, but most all of the tyrannies they assured us would never come to pass have, beginning in 1861 and continuing until today.

No institution or constitution ever devised can stop human nature's craving for power over other men. Freedom can never come from such fountains, but only from the hearts of men who are resolved to live free or die.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, October 26, 2011

The Gold Price Closed Up 1.4% Silver and Gold Will Keep Moving Higher Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 1722.70
Change : 23.10 or 1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 3329.1
Change : 25.7 cents or 0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.75
Change : 0.297 or 0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01932
Change : -0.000111 or -0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1591.70
Change : 25.70 or 1.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 646.15
Change : 4.60 or 0.7%

S&P 500 : 1,242.00
Change : 12.95 or 1.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $142.42
Change : $ 0.05 or 0.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.890
Change : 0.003 or 0.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 356.52
Change : 2.14 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial : 11,869.04
Change : 162.42 or 1.4%

US Dollar Index : 76.23
Change : 0.109 or 0.1%

Building on yesterday's 2.9% gain the GOLD PRICE added another 1.4% ($23.10) today to close $1,722.70 on Comex, nestled right beneath that $1,725 resistance.

Perched above the GOLD PRICE at $1,741.49 is the 50 day moving average, which will slow it down. However, today's close definitely breaks gold out above the upward sloping trading channel boundary in force since end-September.

As strong as GOLD looks, it will probably run higher than $1,750 before the rocket fuel runs out -- maybe $1,775. Once again, if gold does close above $1,800 for two days, then it has already left the starting gate for the next race up.

The SILVER PRICE knocked and pounded at 3400c today, even reached 3393, but couldn't break down the door. Daily chart has sketched a long, narrow triangle. Generally the further out into the triangle's nose a market trades, the less spectacular the eventual breakout. However, SILVER has been so strong -- rising 303.1c since 20 October -- that breaking through 3400c might sling it a long way.

How far? The 50 DMA (3643c) and the 200 DMA (3625) are about to cross, so I expect right there above 3600c silver will land in mud and alligators up to its hips.

SILVER and GOLD will keep on moving higher tomorrow.

I glanced at the Dow In Gold Dollars (DiG$) chart to check stocks' progress against gold. Short answer is, ain't none. Rallied off that August low about G$119 (5.757 oz) as high as G$151 (7.283 oz) two days ago. Why is that no progress? Well, it's correcting a fall from G$165 - $160 level, and yesterday it gapped down, and followed through downside today. Plain message? Stocks are headed DOWN against gold. Today $142,42 (6.89 oz).

Dow in Silver Ounces chart differs substantially, as it rose all the way from its August lows to its July highs -- in other words, retraced the entire fall. No surprise there, since volatile silver loses much more ground in a downward move than gold does. Closed today at 356.32 ounces to buy the Dow.

Looks like the Dow has near about run out of gas. Next big move will point toward the earth's core.

Sell stocks for gold. Sell stocks for gold. Sell stocks for gold. Don't want to do that? Sell stocks for silver.

Dow resistance at 11,900 remained undefeated today, but support at 11,700 held up, too. This tells us little, and could mark the beginning of a downtrend if a higher closed dows not violate the last two day's double top.

For most of the past three days the US dollar index has traded between 76 and 76.5, and more narrowly between 76 and 76.20. Half way thru today's 24 hours somebody knocked it down in a spike to 76.88, then it popped straight up to 76.66 and settled above 76.20 at 76.231, up 10.9 basis points (0.14%).

No change, except that blip up today makes it appear those last 2-1/2 days were a bottom, and the dollar's about to move higher.

Euro's five day chart looks like a plateau that it fell off of today. At today's close it stood at 1.3903, up mightily from 1.3902 yesterday. Trading was more volatile, but no big warning of change appeared. Eurocrats have as yet no "solution" to their bank solvency crisis. Don't expect one, either.

The Nice Government Men from the Bank of Japan have a problem on their hands. Yen backed off a smidge today, 0,.25% to 131.14 (Y76.25), but it has broken out to the upside. Needs to fall back below 130.50 (76.62) to disprove that breakout.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, October 25, 2011

The Gold Price Leapt Straight Up to $1,705, Next Resistance at $1,725, $1,750 Then The Big Heart Stopper $1,800

Gold Price Close Today : 1651.50
Change : 16.40 or 1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3162
Change : 44.7 cents or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.23
Change : -0.223 or -0.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01915
Change : 0.000081 or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1566.00
Change : 22.80 or 1.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 641.55
Change : 1.55 or 0.2%

S&P 500 : 1,229.05
Change : -25.14 or -2.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $146.53
Change : $ (4.07) or -2.7%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.088
Change : -0.197 or -2.7%

Dow in SILVER oz : 370.23
Change : -11.95 or -3.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,706.62
Change : -207.00 or -1.7%

US Dollar Index : 76.04
Change : -0.474 or -0.6%

I reckon that WAS an upside down head and shoulders on the GOLD PRICE chart. Once gold cleared that $1,660 neckline about 10:00 a.m. (taking off with a runaway gap) it never even paused until $1,685, took a deep breath, then leapt clean to $1,705. Friends, by the time the janitor pulled out the broom on Comex, the GOLD PRICE had added $48.10 (2.9%) and stood at $1,699.60. In the aftermarket it's shoving against $1,705 resistance.

Y'all see how those government surprise parties can mess with markets? Gold was building a rally anyway, but that goose from the dithering Eurocrats really put power behind it.

Measured target for this rise is $1,715, but as long as that European party is raging, gold can keep on rising. $1,725 stands next resistance, then $1,750, then the big heart-stopper at $1,800.

I still expect we will see another decline for a final kiss goodbye to the September lows (not that the price will reach that far necessarily, only that a double bottom will appear), but for right now y'all don't stand in gold's way, unless y'all want everybody to think you've left the room when you turn sideways.

One last thing: y'all watch that 50DMA, now at $1,742.82. The GOLD PRICE might stop there. Also keep an eye on $1,775, where gold collapsed in September. Gold might reach that point, too.

The SILVER PRICE was pleased to slap the jaws of all its detractors today. The Comex janitor found silver up 141.4 cents or 4.5% (if I'm lying, I'm dying) to 3303.4c.

Somebody who had BADLY missed the message was selling SILVER about 7:00 a.m. and sold down all the way down to 3139c at 10:00 a.m. Quicker than a lightning flash, silver gapped up over 3160c and shot straight to 3230c. It jogged there a little, then shot another 100c straight up to 3320c. In the aftermarket its trading 3317.5c.

The SILVER PRICE is targetting 3400c. Really would not be a good sign for silver to fall much below 3300c, if it expects to keep rising. 3350c is the next big barrier.

This was a great move today, but only brings silver back to resistance at the top of its 5 week trading range. Must move higher tomorrow to confirm its upward ambitions.

Today you are witnessing why you must gird up your loins, swallow hard, and buy SILVER and GOLD on sharp declines -- because the sharp rises will follow. It's a bull market. It has an indefatigable upward bias.

Yesterday I omitted the other point I wanted to make from Michael Lewis' little book, Boomerang. He interviewed Texas hedge fund manager Kyle Bass several years ago. Bass had called the mortgage collapse in the US and made boatloads with Credit Default Swaps -- think, "bets against mortgage backed securities."

But Bass looked at how the 2008 US crisis was handled, and began to realize that a new phase was unfolding: governments were back-stopping the banks. And it has happened in Europe. Of course, it's impossible for them to do that, because the banks' bad assets -- in sovereign debts, derivatives, MBS, you name it -- are so bottomlessly vast no country could pay them. Yet, that's what they're trying to do. This guarantees a massive financial crisis, perhaps a collapse.

When Lewis asked Bass what he would tell his mother to buy under these circumstances, Bass shot back, "Guns and gold." Lewis gave the equivalent of a nervous giggle over that, intensely uncomfortable with that politically incorrect answer. Yet it was coming from a man who had a 100% track record.

Frankly, I get tired sometimes -- tired of pointing out the obvious. I reckon "stating the obvious" is my only talent, and in the land of the blind the one- eyed man is king. Lately I've been remembering that I have no right to get tired, the world just is what it is, and people delude themselves as they will, afraid to look the truth in the eyes. The ones who have ears will hear, and the rest will never hear anything. The music from Washington and Wall Street will keep drowning everything else out, until the music stops.

The deal in Europe is falling apart, and now the Eurocrats have no plan to present at the planned meeting on Wednesday. Bankers don't want to take a 60% haircut on Greek debt, Germans don't want to bail them out. Greed and pride have driven the banks crazy, since they are being offered 40c on the dollar for debt that is realistically worth zero. But I reckon that's why they call them "banks."

Bottom line for us: whether they banks take 40% or 60%, WHERE WILL THE MONEY COME FROM? The ECB will print it, and never mind the transmission mechanism. And more inflation will beget more inflation, and silver and gold will thrive. May take a few more months to materialize into a renewed rally, but 'twill happen -- y'all take the word of a one-eyed, natural born fool from Tennessee on that.

Fears out of Europe today sent stocks down, the dollar and yen up, and goosed gold and silver strongly.

The Dow lost 207 points (1.74%), 2/3 of the previous two days' gains, to close at 11,706.62. S&P500 lost 25.14 or 2% to close at 1,229.05.

Dow's five day chart peaked a bit above 11,900 yesterday, rolled over, and fell out of bed. If 11,700 cannot hold, then 'twill hit 11,400 quicker'n a frog can tongue a fly out of the air.

The Dow has now reached its 200 DMA (11,967), a frequent barrier to bear market rallies. The pattern formed since August, when the Dow fell from the Jaws Of Death, has been ANOTHER broadening or megaphone pattern. Megaphones are burning up buying power, a market wrestling and writhing before it gives up.

Stocks -- a GUARANTEE for your retirement, but y'all had better ask exactly WHAT they guarantee.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose 9.4 basis points (0.12%) to 76.122. You can bet your last sovereign that the NGM from the US and all over the world, along with the Central Bank Yellow Running Dogs, are working like threshing machines trying to keep that dollar from running away. Euro closed 139.02, down 0.19%. Yen made a new all time intraday high at 132.04c/(Y75.73= $1), closed 131.47, and is trying to take off.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, October 24, 2011

Will We See a Higher Gold Price For The Next Few Days? Comex Closed Today at $1,651.50

Gold Price Close Today : 1651.50
Change : 16.40 or 1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3162
Change : 44.7 cents or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.23
Change : -0.223 or -0.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01915
Change : 0.000081 or 0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1543.20
Change : 27.20 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 640.00
Change : 23.00 or 3.7%

S&P 500 : 1,254.19
Change : 15.94 or 1.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $149.12
Change : $ (0.15) or -0.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.214
Change : -0.007 or -0.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 376.77
Change : -2.04 or -0.5%

Dow Industrial : 11,913.62
Change : 104.83 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 76.04
Change : -0.474 or -0.6%

The GOLD PRICE upside down head and shoulders that appears on it's five day chart confirmed itself again today. Bottom of the head last Thursday came at $1,605, neckline stands about $1,660, so that gives a target of $1,715. Any trading below $1,635 would gainsay that outlook and send GOLD down. However, I believe we will see higher prices for a few days. Comex closed gold today at $1,651.50, up $16.40 (0.4%)

The SILVER PRICE is riding the same train with GOLD. 3200c is now silver's barrier above. Comex closed today at 3162c, up 44.7c (1.4%). Silver must hold 3125c or destroy its optimistic pattern. Target is about 3400c.

Pssst! Don't tell anybody, but things are not going well in Euro-land. Sarcophagus and Ferkel are not getting along. At one point this weekend folks down the hall could hear them yelling at each other, and Sarcophagus was making snide remarks remarks about Ferkel eating cheese when she was supposed to be on a diet.

The meeting decided on only one thing for certain: to hold another meeting in four days. Meanwhile all sorts of financial gymnastics are being suggested so that Greece doesn't have to use the D-word. Banks want their haircut limited to 40%, while autocrats say they'll have to take a 60% loss.

Just to put all this into perspective against the Grand-Canyon-ness of the sovereign debt mess, the 440 million euros already in the European Stabilization Fund would not suffice to pay off Greece's debt by itself, let alone any of the other bankrupts.

The crisis has not ended, the public is simply refusing to register it. Witness US stocks today, playing on the slopes of a smoking, steaming Mt. Vesuvius in Europe. Dow rose 104.83 (0.89%) to 11,913.62 while the S&P500 outpaced the Dow, rising 15.94 (1.29%).

Not because I am a spoilsport only, but out of curiosity I ask in passing, "If European banks are trashed, can US banks escape unscathed? The US economy?" I fell like the fellow in the movie, "They Live", who finds the special sunglasses that enable him to see that aliens are walking around running the earth. Am I the only one who can see these things? Surely not, but then, I don't work for any government or central bank. I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, not smart like them fellers.

US DOLLAR INDEX dropped today to 76.04, losing 47.4 basis points or 0.61%. That carries the $ index down past its 50 day moving average (DMA, now 76.41) and almost to its 200 DMA (now 75.84). If my expectation is correct, the dollar index ought to catch and hold here, and soon begin turning up.

Euro rose 0.26% to 139.29, and is not exactly burning up the boards, blocked at 1.395, and not benefiting from the insane euphoria over this past weekend's non-event. True, the euro did cross above its 50 DMA (138.82) so mayhap this will be the last push up that carries the Euro to its 200 DMA (140.65) and the end of its rally.

The yen keeps on refusing to behave. After last Friday's new all time high, it closed higher than Friday's close at 131.43c/Y100 (Y76.07/$1), up 0.24%. Nice Government Men in Tokyo better catch it soon or they may have to deal with a financial earthquake.

Y'all need to read Michael Lewis' book, Boomerang: Travels in the New Third World, not because he draws the right conclusions but because he shows the vastness of the insane booms in Iceland, Ireland, Greece, German banks, and US state and municipal governments. With an obtuseness that stretches credulity, he concludes that our evolutionary "lizard core" is to blame. To reach that gem, he had to ignore (1) that without banks there can be no credit-fed boom, because they create the credit, and (2) without governments offering them, there would be no cushy government jobs and pensions for folks to grab at. You build a system driven by greed, then are SURPRISED that it brings out greed in people? Well, there's a lizard in there somewhere, I reckon, but I can't find him. Maybe he's hiding behind banks and governments.

Y'all read the book anyway. 218 pages on a big, fat leading, so it'll take about 4 hours to read.

On 24 October 1929 Black Thursday hit Wall Street in the fist day of the stock market crash that kicked off the Great Depression.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, October 21, 2011

The Silver and Gold Price Remain in a Bull Market, and Will Until Some Monetary Crisis Finally Brings Down The Fiat Money & Banking System

Gold Price Close Today : 1,635.10
Gold Price Close 14-Oct : 1,681.80
Change : -46.70 or -2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 3117.3
Silver Price Close 14-Oct : 3214
Change : -96.70 or -3.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.452
Gold Silver Ratio 14-Oct : 52.327
Change : 0.13 or 0.2%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01906
Silver Gold Ratio 14-Oct : 0.01911
Change : -0.00005 or -0.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 149.29
Dow in Gold Dollars 14-Oct : $ 143.13
Change : $ 6.17 or 4.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.222
Dow in Gold Ounces 14-Oct : 6.924
Change : 0.30 or 4.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 378.81
Dow in Silver Ounces 14-Oct : 362.31
Change : 16.51 or 4.6%

Dow Industrial : 11,808.79
Dow Industrial 14-Oct : 11,644.49
Change : 164.30 or 1.4%

S&P 500 : 1,238.25
S&P 500 14-Oct : 1,224.58
Change : 13.67 or 1.1%

US Dollar Index : 76.291
US Dollar Index 14-Oct : 76.607
Change : -0.316 or -0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,516.00
Platinum Price Close 14-Oct : 1,555.00
Change : -39.00 or -2.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 617.00
Palladium Price Close 14-Oct : 626.00
Change : -9.00 or -1.4%

The GOLD PRICE yesterday rose late in the aftermarket to about $1,622. Time the US market opened today it was already at $1,635, and reached $1,648. Rest of the day $1,635 served as a floor. Comex closed at $1,635.10, up $23.20 (1.4%). Aftermarket is trading $1,640.95.

Looks like the GOLD PRICE has turned up for next week, maybe longer. Whether 'twill last is another question.

On Comex the SILVER PRICE rose 3% (90.7c) to 3117.3c, and advanced all day. Like GOLD, SILVER has made a short of upside down head and shoulder -- maybe. If it is, it points to a rise to 3450c or so, but all this hasn't completely unfolded yet.

The SILVER PRICE couldn't penetrate 3150c (there fell today's high), and if this excitement is anything more than a Friday drunk, it must clear that Monday and keep on marching.

Expect higher silver prices this week.

SILVER and GOLD remain in a bull market, and will until some monetary crisis finally brings down the fiat money and banking system. Don't listen to anybody who says otherwise, because they don't know 'Sic 'em!" from "Come here!"

Strange week, mostly held in suspension by Eurocrats' indecision about their bank solvency crisis. Oddly -- or maybe, not so oddly, all things considered in this world of confusion and illusion -- stock investors today appeared to believe that something will come out of this weekend's Euro-summit, although they are going into it with no plan and planning only to meet again soon to plan a plan. Don't sound like a plan to me, but I'm only a natural born fool from Tennessee, not a high-flying Eurocrat like Sarcophagus or Ferkel.

For the week, metals all lost ground while stocks gained - barely.

Stocks gained enough today to close in positive territory for the year (31 Dec 2010 closed 11,573. Once that happened, the buying panic spread like a bar fight and for the Dow gobbled up 267.01 points (up 2.31%) to close 11,808.79. S&P500 lagged not far behind, up 1.88% (22.86) to 1,238.25.

So the Dow cleared that 11,650 hurdle that had been stymying its progress. Dow will now most likely touch its 200 day moving average (DMA) (now 11,965). It could rally all the way to 12,300 WITHOUT changing the doom hanging over its head, only altering it from a jaws of death broadening top to a diamond top. Mercy, the Dow may rally into the end of the year, but that is no reason to buy it. Rather, that's a last chance to sell for those poor victims who still own stocks.

Did I mention that it's ridiculous to look at the European bank solvency crisis and conclude the Eurocrats will cure it this weekend? It's ridiculous.

STOCKS -- they are they Tyrannosaurus Rex of Investment Predators.

US DOLLAR INDEX was cold-cocked and fell below 77, down 68.3 basis points or 0.88%. That fractured the 76.60 support, and opens the road for the dollar index to visit its 200 DMA, now 75.87. Long as the dollar does not dramatically rupture that line, it will remain in rally mode.

Euro today closed 1.3896, up 0.87%. Euro still hasn't broken up through resistance at that lower boundary line of the channel it was defenestrated out of in September. Today closed right on the 50 DMA 1.3889. Will rise higher.

Somebody goosed the Yen sure enough today. It's 131.88 high was a new all time high, but it closed at 131.05c/Y100 (Y76.30/$1), plumb at the top of its trading channel. Yen wants to climb, but can't imagine the Nice Japanese Government Men letting it, since a higher yen would wound their exports so badly. Without exports, Japan is pretty much 280 million people looking for a job and waiting to starve.

Get ready for a 180 degree turn on gold, at least in the short-term. I looked at the chart this morning and LO! There's a large left shoulder (Tuesday), a head (Thursday), and the beginning of a shoulder above $1,635. It measures out a 50 point rise from $1,665, to $1,715, if I have identified it correctly. After that rise I expect more downside, but if gold can pierce $1,800 and hold its ground, then the tide has turned.

Now I know y'all mean well sending me those news articles about the TSA setting up roadblocks in Tennessee to search people in cars and in bus stations, but let me tell y'all something, and y'all write this down in your book. Until SOMEBODY says "NO!" they will keep on doing this stuff, and so far, none of y'all will say no. You'll let 'em search your car without a warrant because you want to finish your trip on time or your kids are with you or your wife has supper on the stove at home. Until y'all plant your feet square on the ground, get out of your car and lock it and refuse to have it searched for lack of due cause, and go to jail for a day or a week or a month and risk them beating you up if you have to because that's the only way you can enforce your rights, the TSA and the government will continue to ignore and steal your ancient rights, rights older than Magna Carta.

Ask any lawyer: without a Belligerent Claimant in Person, no rights exist. You have no rights you are not willing to enforce YOURself. No such thing as a Milquetoast Claimant In Person, begging government agents to please act nice and observe his rights. Hell will freeze over with ice six inches thick and icicles before that happens.

Did the British leave the colonies because the Americans asked 'em real nice? Somebody has to say "NO!" Till you're ready to do that, might as well get used to wearing that steel collar round your neck and pulling out your papers fast and respectful-like.

On 21 October 1922 Benito Mussolini took control of the Italian government and installed fascism in Italy. Why? Because not enough people said "NO!"

One hundred one years ago today, 21 October 1910, my father was born in Michie, Tennessee. He never met a stranger.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, October 20, 2011

The Gold Price Broke Down Nearly Touching The 150 Day Moving Average Closing at $1,611.90

Gold Price Close Today : 1611.90
Change : (34.10) or -2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 3026
Change : 98.6 cents or -3.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.27
Change : 0.590 or 1.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01877
Change : -0.000210 or -1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1499.00
Change : -12.50 or -0.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 589.00
Change : -13.70 or -2.3%

S&P 500 : 1,215.39
Change : 5.51 or 0.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $148.02
Change : $ 3.55 or 2.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.160
Change : 0.172 or 2.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 381.42
Change : 13.23 or 3.6%

Dow Industrial : 11,541.78
Change : 37.16 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index : 77.19
Change : 0.073 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE has broken down out of that pennant formation and will trade lower. Today it made a low at $1,603.91, nearly touching the 150 day moving average at $1,602.50. Sturdy confidence that ain't.

Now throughout this bull market that 150 DMA has backstopped -- generally -- gold. But against that optimism look at the MACD indicator, which is turning down, nosing after lower prices.

If the GOLD PRICE breaks $1,600, it will certainly think about dropping back to the $1,535 last low, or the 200 DMA at $1,547. And if the Eurocrats come up with some plausible face-paint, gold would take a hit on Monday. On the other hand, if they only meet, eat, dither, and retreat, gold will gain.

Seems to me politics absorbs way too much of our time. Adults ought to spend their time more profitably than wondering what a bunch of bootlicking banklackies will do.

The SILVER PRICE is in the same position as the GOLD PRICE, only more volatile. On Comex today SILVER lost 98.6c (3.15%) to close at 3026c. In the aftermarket it quickly gained 37c (1.22%) to 3063c. Mercy! How do you parse or trade that? Silver reached 2994 today after losing its grip on 3050c support, but then jumped back pretty quickly. NEVERTHELESS, that doesn’t look like it has cleared 3050c resistance (support becomes resistance when you approach it from underneath), just silver trading up in a thin aftermarket.

Breaking 3000c will send silver down a buck anyway, arguing for much lower prices.

Listen, y'all, look at the world around you and take a deep breath. Spit out that central bank ether and think: have any of the fundamental drivers of inflation and the silver and gold bull market changed? No, so the bull market continues, we are just suffering through a correction. Keep calm, silver and gold will come roaring back.

Chart for the Dow today looked like a video of somebody kicking an old tin funnel down a road -- up, down, everywhere. Confusion reigns. Dow added a massive 37.16 (.32%) to close at 11,541.78 while the S&P500 added 5.51 (0.46%) to end at 1,215.39. Other indices fell, revealing their confusion and bewilderment.

Some guru on the internet said stocks rose on optimism the Euro summit this weekend would arrive at a solution for the bank solvency crisis there. Right, but how'd he know that? How'd he know for sure it wasn't stray dogs or indigestion?

From a technical perspective, stocks are still stymied by 11,650 resistance, optimism, stray dogs, or indigestion.,

DOLLAR INDEX rose slightly today, I reckon because the folks trading that market had no optimism about this weekend. (What kind of sorry people get optimism from a politicians' meeting, anyway?) Dollar index rose a tiny 7.8 basis points (0.18%) to 77.192.

The euro remains trapped below the bottom boundary of its trading channel, the one it fell out of in September. Nothing's going to happen until the politicians do something, and the chance of them doing something more than cosmetic is the same as the chance an undertaker has of raising a corpse from the dead after he pretties it up. Closed 137.77c, up 0.15%. Japanese yen remains paralyzed, up 0.2% to 130.23c/Y100 (Y76.79/$1).

The dollar's little piddling rise and other phantasms do not account for gold's fall today, down 34.10 (2.1%) to $1,611.90. Nor does it account for gold's aftermarket rise to $1,622.40. Saw the same thing in the silver market and moreso, which makes me think dealers are shorting throughout the day, then covering at day's end.

Life has a way of taking matters out of your hands. Shorthanded in the office today, Susan gone to New Albany to pick up the newsletters, and I had to go to a funeral. Can't put a funeral off.

I'm taking this opportunity to say Bye-Bye to y'all, just in case Harold Egbert Camping proves right and the world does end tomorrow. Now, I'm not really counting on that being the last day, since Camping also prophesied that the world would end on 21 May 1988, 6 September 1994, and 21 May 2011, without noticeable success. Since 21 May he has been spiritualizing away the failure, and he had a stroke.

Frankly, I'm counting on being right here tomorrow, about this time, doing what I always do, and wondering, as always, why some people do the silly things they do.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Gold Price Closed at $1,646 down 0.3%

Gold Price Close Today : 1,646.00
Change : -5.70 or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 3125
Change : -55 cents or -1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,519.10
Change : -17.60 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 607.90
Change : -11.50 or -1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.67
Change : 0.73 or 1.01%

Dow Industrial : 11,577.05
Change : 180.05 or 1.6%

US Dollar Index : 77.16
Change : -0.03 or 0.0%

Franklin Sanders has not published any commentary today, if he publishes commentary later today it will be published here.



Tuesday, October 18, 2011

The Gold Price Fell Down Out of a Flat Topped Rising Triangle Today, Did the Gold Price Turn Down?

Gold Price Close Today : 1651.70
Change : (23.80) or -1.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 3180.1
Change : 1.0 cent or 0.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.94
Change : -0.765 or -1.5%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01925
Change : 0.000279 or 1.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1539.50
Change : -16.00 or -1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 624.15
Change : 6.85 or 1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,225.31
Change : 24.45 or 2.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $144.89
Change : $ 4.29 or 3.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.009
Change : 0.208 or 3.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 364.04
Change : 5.54 or 1.5%

Dow Industrial : 11,576.82
Change : 179.82 or 1.6%

US Dollar Index : 77.00
Change : -0.062 or -0.1%

Today the GOLD PRICE opened down over $40, bottomed about 10:00 a.m. at $1,626.75, then stubbornly climbed the rest of the day to recover half that loss. Comex found it down only $23.80 at $1,651.70.

I just want to point out to y'all that you can do worse than what the engineers do, namely, just deal with the facts. It removes most of the guesswork. Call it what it is: the GOLD PRICE reached $1,695 on Monday, then hit $1,626.75 today, and closed beneath $1,655 support. That's a down trend, often beaten in the neighborhood of $1,680.

Here's where it gets tricky: does it really mean what it says? If you were building a bridge, it would, but markets have that human tendency to blow hot and cold out of both sides of their mouth. Sometimes they break down or up, but only for one day, then reverse the next and break out and follow through the opposite direction! The GOLD PRICE had been building a flat-topped rising triangle. Usually that breaks out upwards, but gold fell down out of it today. Did gold turn down? MACD is losing its enthusiasm. Probably did, and 'twill make a trip home to the 150 dma ($1,599) soon, but closing tomorrow above $1,695 would gainsay that course.

I remember a few days ago when the SILVER PRICE closed up one cent and gold dropped several dollars, then jumped up next day. Well, here we go again, but which way? Silver shuttered Comex at 3180.1c, up one cent. During the day it dropped as low at 3046c, but defended that level and rose again out of the mirey pit to close well above 3100c at 3180.1c.

Facts: The SILVER PRICE must climb above, and remain above, 3250c to change the diagnosis from downtrend to uptrend. Silver, too fell out of its rising flat-topped triangle today, but remains in the range of 2843c to 3310c that has held it captive since September. Unless SILVER and GOLD showed false breakouts today, they will follow through tomorrow with lower prices.

All this back and forth betrays great bewilderment and confusion in SILVER and GOLD. Blame lies largely with the European crisis and the Eurocrats dawdling and diddling and pitty-patting at the problem. Markets hate indecision.

Stocks knee-jerked higher today on a report of a $2 trillion fix of the European sovereign debt crisis. Later it turned out the report didn't report that at all, only that Euro-crats had worked out a deal to make sure this doesn't happen again (count on THAT) by banning short sales of Credit Default Swaps and maybe bank stocks, and who knows, maybe striped stockings, too.

Let us never forget, as we listen to the parrots on TV and Radio and the actors in politics and central banks, that there is NO sovereign debt crisis in Greece or Europe, just as there was NO mortgage debt crisis in the US. There is a BANK SOLVENCY CRISIS, and all this circles around saving the banks, not countries or homeowners. homeowners. The greedy banks - abetted by lap-dog governments - dug themselves into a hole, and now by means of their bought-and-paid-for politicians, they want to hand a shovel to taxpayers so they can fill it up. Debt crisis, my eye! It's a BANK crisis, of, by, and for the banks, Euro and US.

Anyhow, Sarcophagus in France is whining and moaning about Europe breaking up, theatrics in preparation for this weekend's Euro-summit. He has to give Ferkel some cover for her selling the Germans down the river, since the German voter has not yet been successfully enlightened to the glory of bailing out banks or other countries, shameful troglodyte he is.

At the bottom line, the Euro-crats have no deal yet, but they are barking for one strongly. Ain't y'all impressed?

Lo, stocks opened the day dragging their itty feet, but about 10:30 picked up and surged toward's day's end. This handsome performance brings them up to only about 75 points below Friday and about 125 points below that death-dealing, I'll-raise-a-punk-knot-on-top-of-yore-head 11,700 resistance.

Dow rose 179.82 points today, 1.58%, to 11,576.82. S&P500 also climbed 24.45, up 2.04%, to 1,225.31.

Not clear yet that stocks can continue to rally, or for that matter have even started rallying, but they might. Need a close above 200 day moving average (now 11,967) to prove it, otherwise they're just pikers shaking dice and trying to rope you into their game. My rule is, never shoot craps with any man who pulls his own dice out of his pocket.

Here late in the day the US dollar index, which had traded as high as 77.52 then taken a beating down to 76.80, is now trading 77.084, down a negligible 6.2 basis points (0.08%). Looks to me like the dollar made a double bottom Friday and Monday around 76.50, but who listens to me? I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, and no match for them Wall Street jeen-youses.

For all the alleged good news perking out of Europe, the Franken-currency still rose only 0.18% to 137.66, trading back to fill the last gap it left. Probably will rise higher, although there is no reason in the world it ought to, other than moirchandizing.

The Yen took the sidling path, losing 0.05% to 130.13c/Y100 (Y76.85/$1). No change, still range bound and flying heavy like an old hawk with a fat rabbit.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, October 17, 2011

The Gold Price Has Formed a Rising Flat Top Triangle, Those Usually Break Out Upside

Gold Price Close Today : 1675.50
Change : (6.30) or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 3179.1
Change : 34 cents or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.70
Change : 0.362 or 0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01897
Change : -0.000131 or -0.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1555.50
Change : 0.50 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 617.30
Change : -8.70 or -1.4%

S&P 500 : 1,200.86
Change : -23.86 or -1.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $140.61
Change : $ (2.50) or -1.7%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.802
Change : -0.121 or -1.7%

Dow in SILVER oz : 358.50
Change : -3.91 or -1.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,397.00
Change : -247.49 or -2.1%

US Dollar Index : 77.22
Change : 0.604 or 0.8%

I have been awaiting for the GOLD PRICE to rally up towards $1,700 at least, but gold keeps failing to close above $1,681.70 Today it eased a little higher overnight, nearly reached 1695, but fell most of the day in US trading, with a floor at $,1665. The GOLD PRICE has coiled up into a tightening range that looks like a rising flat topped triangle. Those usually break out upside, but they can worry you to death waiting for that resolution. A breakdown here -- say, below $1,640 -- would leave gold looking very weak. An upside breakout should carry to $1,725, maybe $1,750 or even $1,800 before it fails.

I'm working on two possible outcomes here. First, that the $1,927 top was not a major one, and from here the GOLD PRICE will rally into year end. Second says that $1,927 was a major top, and gold will spend 4 - 6 months in jail doing penance before it lifts off again. A close above $1,805 sets the first outcome in motion. Comex gold closed down $6.30 at $1,675.50.

The SILVER PRICE hasn't acted nearly as enthusiastically as gold lately. Today it reached only 3265c, right near that 3250c mark that has stopped it so often. Low came at 3147. If tomorrow's trading breaks that 3150c line, silver's liable to trade back to 3000c.

Overhead SILVER needs to rise above 3350c to break out. 200 DMA stands at 3616c. Although I EXPECT the GOLD PRICE to rise and carry the SILVER PRICE with it in a corrective bounce against the recent fall, silver wouldn't surprise me much if it fell back to 3000c.

On Comex silver was settled down 34c at 3179.1c.

Today's markets:

The US dollar index rose 0.78%, 60.4 basis points, to 77.22, throwing bags of monkey wrenches into the stock, silver, and gold markets.

The Euro is probably on a tear that will run nearly to 1.4200 before it collapses, but today it was bouncing off of resistance at the bottom boundary of the 5 month trading channel. Dropped today 0.99% to 137.40. This euro-intoxication springeth from the alcoholic vapors of hope -- hope that the Europeans will actually fix their banking system. Maybe, but not until after at least Greece and maybe two or three others default on their government debt. Then all those optimists will transmogrify just as instantly into euro-pessimists. Markets have no loyalty.

Japanese yen continues to slide down the upper boundary line of a triangle, within a sidewise trading range. Rose today 0.49% to 130.18c/Y100 (Y76.82/$1). No resolution, no direction, but also no confirming weakness yet.

Stocks dashed the dreams of all those who bedded down Friday with visions of Sugar Plum profits dancing in heir heads. Bounced off 11,700 resistance like a big old June bug bouncing off your windshield at 75 mph on Interstate 40, leaving behind a gooshy yellow mess. Dow closed down 247.49 2.13%) at 11,397, hand in had with a falling S&P500 that tumbled 3.35% (23.86) to 1,200.86. Oh, I reckon stocks will still rise higher, probably even rally a while, but not much beyond the 200 day moving average (11,967). Today the Dow lost nearly every penny it had gained in five day's work last week.

Stocks -- they USED to represent a real economy, but now they're only the delusion of an economy. Reminds me of that joke laborers used to tell in the Communist countries -- "They pretend to pay us so we pretend to work." Likewise, the US pretends to have an economy, so stocks pretend to have value.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, October 14, 2011

The Gold Price, Silver Price and Stocks All Rose While The Dollar Dropped. Gold Price Closed Today at 1,685.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1,685.10
Gold Price Close 7-Oct : 1,634.50
Change : 50.60 or 3.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 3214
Silver Price Close 7-Oct : 3095.8
Change : 118.20 or 3.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.430
Gold Silver Ratio 7-Oct : 52.797
Change : -0.37 or -0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01907
Silver Gold Ratio 7-Oct : 0.01894
Change : 0.00013 or 0.7%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 142.85
Dow in Gold Dollars 7-Oct : $ 140.42
Change : $ 2.42 or 1.7%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 6.910
Dow in Gold Ounces 7-Oct : 6.793
Change : 0.12 or 1.7%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 362.31
Dow in Silver Ounces 7-Oct : 358.65
Change : 3.65 or 1.0%

Dow Industrial : 11,644.49
Dow Industrial 7-Oct : 11,103.12
Change : 541.37 or 4.9%

S&P 500 : 1,224.58
S&P 500 7-Oct : 1,155.46
Change : 69.12 or 6.0%

US Dollar Index : 76.607
US Dollar Index 7-Oct : 78.792
Change : -2.185 or -2.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,555.00
Platinum Price Close 7-Oct : 1,496.60
Change : 58.40 or 3.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 626.00
Palladium Price Close 7-Oct : 590.70
Change : 35.30 or 6.0%

Turns out I was completely wrong last week when I expected the GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE to drop. Dollar dropped instead, while GOLD, SILVER, and stocks all rose. PALLADIUM was the week's biggest gainer, up 6%. Stocks are marching along to retirement nirvana, hurrah, hurrah.

The GOLD PRICE bewilders me. Look at the weekly chart, and it has done no more than sketch out a range bounded by $1655 and $1685. Nothing plain about the longer term chart, either. Might be a flat topped rising triangle, which is bullish, but then again, might be a rising wedge, which is bearish. Add another complication: the bigg pattern from mid-August thru September forms a falling wedge, which is bullish.

Although GOLD is rallying, I expect it to hit the bottom of that peaking area from $1,725 to $1,800 and knock itself out. The two year weekly chart screams that gold will drop further.

But when gold hits the 150 dma again (now $1,596) I reckon I'll have to buy some. Waiting is making me awfully nervous.

The SILVER PRICE, O, the Silver Price! The weekly chart looks like a head and shoulders top. Monday's left shoulder topped at 3250c, Wednesday's head at 3300c, and today's right shoulder at 3250c. Neckline holds it all up at 3130c. Y'all don't start throwing rocks at me, I'm just reporting what I see. On the other hand, the long term (10 year) weekly chart teaches me that the decline was caught by the uptrend line from the 2008 bottom. How much lower, then, can you expect it to fall? Maybe not much.

Top of the range is 3300c, bottom 3130c. Break either way should run like a scalded dog. I will buy on any break below 3100c.

There's always a danger that you will "talk your position" and convince yourself you're right, all the while ignoring the reasons you're wrong. The 57.5 GOLD SILVER RATIO, which is my target fro swapping back into silver from gold, lies about at the 62% correction of the fall that began in February 2010. I think we can get it. I hope I haven't missed it already.

Stocks are cooking, reached their highest close today since late August. Dow rose 166.36 (1.45%) to 11,644.59 accompanied by the S&P500 up 1.95% (13.64) to 1,224.58.

Before you call your brother-in-law and rub it in how smart you are for staying in stocks, observe that stocks, although above their 20 day moving average (11,144) and 50 DMA (11,201), have not quite yet topped their August intraday high at 11,716.84. An optimist might look at the Dow's chart and say, "It's about to break through 11,700 resistance!" A realist might look at it and say, "Let the rejoicing await a close above 11,716 and the previous low at 11,863. Let the Dow prove this is not merely a consolidation, but really a rally. And don't forget that Dow Theory down turn signal a few weeks ago. Wait! And what about that MACD that's drawing so close to overbought?"

Let's wait till Monday and see how well the Dow handles this 11,600- 11,700 level.

Stocks -- they put the Boo! in boomerang.

US DOLLAR INDEX keeps ratcheting down, giving back the gains from the September rally. Today ended at 76.607, down 0.5% or 38.9 basis points. Before its correction ends, it might touch the 200 DMA at 75.94. Strange as it sounds coming from me, I still expect further rallying from the dollar.

Space aliens landed in Brussels today and pledged to bail out the European banks. On the strength of that promise the euro rose to 1.3877, up 0.73%, and has nearly reached its 50 DMA (1.3936 -- 20 dma at 1.3548). Could rally clean up to 1.42, where its sorrows commenced. But I wouldn't buy euros until I see the color of those space aliens' money.

(Don't bother telling me I'm not being serious. Mercy, I'm as serious as all those goofs out there buying euros when the banking system is as broke as the Ten Commandments. What are they counting on to bail them out if not space aliens or something equally likely?)

Japanese Yen closed today at 129.54c/Y100 (Y77.2/$1). Yen is sliding down the descending top boundary line of a triangle, but not enough that you could call it anything more than a trading range.

Here are a few Peace of Mind Steps y'all can take in the face of today's insane uncertainties.

** Get three months' living expenses out of the bank, in cash, smallish bills, and store them in a safe place with 24 hour access. Don't bother calling me crazy, I've been maligned by professionals, so it doesn't bother me. Banks and your government are the most lethal and ruthless combination running loose today. Remember 1985 when banks and SandLs closed in Maryland and Ohio? Government simply closed 'em, no warning, and if your kids went hunger, tough luck. They will do anything -- including shoot their mothers in front of a cop -- to save their system. Close banks, limit withdrawals ("Oh, sorry you can't live on $300 a week. Eat dirt."), anything. Just give yourself enough cushion to protect your family.

** You and your wife ask yourself: If the place we are living suddenly became Beirut, or Sirte, or Baghdad, where would we go? Remember, a refugee is somebody who is trudging someplace else to die.

** Ask yourselves, "If I couldn't shop at the grocery for a week, what would we eat?" Pick up a couple of 25 lb. bags of rice and dried beans. Ask also what water you would drink -- clean water.

** Inquire of the mirror, How would we defend ourselves if there were no police? If you've never taken a pistol combat course,do that. And buy some ammunition -- it seldom goes stale. Remember, a man with a full magazine sleeps more soundly.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt -- -- Silver and gold must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, October 13, 2011

Gold Price Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Is Calling For Higher Prices, Comex Closed at $1,667.30

Gold Price Close Today : 1667.30
Change : (14.00) or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.633
Change : (1.121) or -3.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.71
Change : 1.376 or 2.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01897
Change : -0.000509 or -2.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1540.00
Change : -15.00 or -1.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 597.00
Change : -15.00 or -2.5%

S&P 500 : 1,203.66
Change : -3.59 or -0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $142.31
Change : $ 0.70 or 0.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.884
Change : 0.034 or 0.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 362.85
Change : 11.18 or 3.2%

Dow Industrial : 11,478.13
Change : -40.72 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 76.97
Change : -0.022 or 0.0%

Today, once again, the GOLD PRICE failed to break through $1,675 - $1,680. It's narrowed its range some, and twice defended a $1,655 low. And today's high at $1,681.50 climbed a little higher than Monday's, but that's not breaking through resistance. That's failing. I expect tomorrow will show lower prices, and a lot lower if gold breaks $1,653. On the topside, watch $1,680 resistance. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is calling for higher gold.

On the Comex today, where the black shirts take no prisoners, gold dropped $14 to close at $1,667.30.

The SILVER PRICE chart resembles the GOLD PRICE chart only a little wilder. 3300c resistance has again corralled and hogtied silver. The SILVER PRICE never fell below 3144.4c, but by the time they rang that Comex bell, it has lost 112.1c to 3163.3c. Whole day was one long decline.

Maybe SILVER and GOLD are carving out new trading ranges, $1,650 to $1,682 and 3140c to 3300c. Maybe, but if they fall below those levels, we face more frustrating range trading or new lows.

What might happen if my interpretation of SILVER and GOLD right now is all wrong? What if they've already bottomed, and I've launched myself on another fool's errand, waiting for 'em to drop a little lower?

Might be. We'll know that for sure if the GOLD PRICE trades above $1,800 and stays. The SILVER PRICE is so volatile that I don't want to set any target there, just use gold as a trigger.

Why am I thinking this way? The Long Run came last night to mind. I hear The Media Mighty saying Gold's career is most likely over, and Silver's most surely, and I scratch my head. Folks don't talk that way at market tops, when you can't find a doubter with a telescope, microscope, and Geiger counter. Nor have silver and gold even matched by a third the last bull market's performance. Nor have any of the causes boosting SILVER and GOLD changed. Have any of y'all heard the Federal Reserve will be abolished? That the yankee government will stop trying to run the economy and stop waging wars around the world to make everybody nice like us? Naww, y'all haven't heard any of that, so none of the causes have changed.

Thus I confess I am playing a perilous game, holding out for lower prices -- lower by a few percentage points, even 15%, when I expect silver and gold to treble or quadruple from here. But for all that, markets have been teaching me for years -- with a barbed wire whip to make the lesson sink in -- that sometimes patience and waiting prove wisest.

But y'all need not feel obliged to copy my bad, natural-born- fool example. You might decide, with good reason, that you'd rather trust SILVER or GOLD than to leave you money in those Mothers of All Monetary Mischief and Larceny, the banks. I won't gainsay you a minute.

Did y'all ever notice how little it takes to strip away your veneer of civilization? For me, a rainy autumn day with the wild wet smell of Tennessee woods works just as well as a sunny spring day. If they didn't chain my ankle to this computer, I'd be as scarce around here as Big Foot. I'd run wild in the woods, eat hickory nuts, and drink from the creeks, but here I am so let's talk about markets. (Don't even talk about playing bag pipes or banjo music. Do that, and I'll break the chain.)

Mercy, you'd be in a mess if you had to trade currencies for a living. Today the Franken-currency is trading as I write at 1.3784, down a gigantic 0.01. That doesn't quite paint the picture, though, because it spent most of its day lower, low as 1.3685. Now maybe it was just filling that gap it left two days ago, or maybe its bouncing off that lower boundary of the range whence it broke down. Either way, y'all can HAVE my helping of the euro. I can't abide the taste of it.

Yen barely traded today, but last traded at 130.13c/Y100 (Y76.85/$1), up 0.53% and almost enough to read on the chart that it moved.

US DOLLAR INDEX today sidled between 77.433 and 76.843. Can't argue that 77.40 slapped its

jaws, but not too bad. Dollar's holding tight to 77, but as I've been saying, even if it slides to 76, it has in mind to climb above 80. That may take a while to unfold, but it will come. Only a bad fall below 76 would change my mind.

Mercy! 'Tis awfully easy to let your eyes slip off the horizon and let today's events cloud your mind. The air of unthreatened calm that hangs over us here is a falsehood. I reckon we're like men working in a TNT factory: everything's all right until some fool strikes a match. Tomorrow I'm going to send y'all some suggestions for securing a little more peace of mind.

STOCKS spent the day contradicting themselves. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 rose, while the senior indices fell. Pattern of trading was altogether different. Nasdaq and N-100 fiddled, then about 11:30 took off upside and gained most of the day. Dow and S&P500 stayed underwater all day, and only drew nigh the surface near day's end.

Dow closed at 11,478.13, down 40.75 or 0.35%. S&P 500 lost 3.59 (0.3%) to 1,203.66.

I know lots of folks are singing that the Dow will rally from here, and it may, but it's having a hard time crawling out of the congestion area posted since the August waterfall.

STOCKS -- they are the iron life-jacket Wall Street throws to Main Street, drowning in confusion.

Y'all won't believe this, but I was working at home today and got a phone call from Nielsen, the company that tracks TV viewership. Nice lady asked me how much TV I watched and I said -- nicely, now -- I said there wasn't anything I wanted to watch. She asked if she could send me a notebook to track my TV watching for a week, and I said, sure, if it's got asbestos pages and you don't mind my writing down what I really think, minus the cusswords. She was very sweet, but those folks have no idea who they're messing with.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.