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Friday, December 30, 2011

The Gold Price Rose 9.2% in 2011 Bull Market in Gold and Silver Has Not Ended

Gold Price Close Today : 1,565.80
Gold Price Close 23-Dec : 1,604.70
Change Day: -38.90 or -2.4%
Change Year: 144.70 or 9.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 2787.5
Silver Price Close 23-Dec : 2904.6
Change Day: -117.10 or -4.0%
Change Year: -303.5 or -10.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 56.172
Gold Silver Ratio 23-Dec : 55.247
Change Day: 0.93 or 1.7%
Change Year: 10.197 or 18.2%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01780
Silver Gold Ratio 23-Dec : 0.01810
Change Day: -0.00030 or -1.6%
Change Year: -0.00395 or -22.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 161.30
Dow in Gold Dollars 23-Dec : $ 158.37
Change Day: $ 2.93 or 1.8%
Change Year: $-7.05 or -4.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.803
Dow in Gold Ounces 23-Dec : 7.661
Change Day: 0.14 or 1.8%
Change Year: -0.341 or -4.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 438.30
Dow in Silver Ounces 23-Dec : 423.26
Change Day: 15.04 or 3.6%
Change Year: 63.88 or 14.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,217.56
Dow Industrial 23-Dec : 12,294.00
Change Day: -76.44 or -0.6%
Change Year: 644.14 or 5.3%

S&P 500 : 1,257.60
S&P 500 23-Dec : 1,265.33
Change Day: -7.73 or -0.6%
Change Year: 0.08 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 80.205
US Dollar Index 23-Dec : 79.999
Change Day: 0.206 or 0.3%
Change Year: 1.032 or 1.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,393.30
Platinum Price Close 23-Dec : 1,424.10
Change : -30.80 or -2.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 649.50
Palladium Price Close 23-Dec : 662.60
Change : -13.10 or -2.0%


Gold Price Performance Percentage Annual Change for the Past 10 Years

Silver Price Performance Percentage Annual Change for the Past 10 Years

*These tables are both available on the front page of goldprice.org and update daily

The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE staged a rally today all out of proportion to the US dollar's meager drop. Gold gained $25.90 to close Comex at $1,565.80 while silver added 60.1c to close 2787.5c.

Sure, maybe that jump arose out of folks closing out short position before the long weekend, but maybe not. Remember that silver closed higher yesterday while the GOLD PRICE fell. It's way to early to say definitively, but we may have seen gold's bottom at $1,522 (intraday) yesterday. Silver might continue to struggle.

For the new year, silver and gold may move sideways in frustration until mid-February, or at worst, late May. I'm basing this on their behaviour when they previously crossed below their 300 and 200 DMAs in correction.

This much I am sure of. Unless the European bank solvency crisis breaks out into a delirium and frenzy (daily a possibility), I was wrong to wax so bearish on metals at mid-December. We will NOT see huge drops in silver and gold unless a financial panic breaks out in Europe. But panic or not, silver and gold will be higher this time next year than they are now, because THEIR BULL MARKET IS NOT OVER. Look at 10 year charts of silver or gold to prove it to yourself. And neither in price nor in time have they fulfilled their bull market promise yet.

What would signal trouble? SILVER PRICE breaking below 2600c and gold below $1,500. Only way I know to deal with this is to buy and keep on buying as they step down, or if they step down.

For this special year end edition I have added two columns to show the end-2010 close and % change from 2010 to 2011. By the way, y'all print out a copy of today's commentary and keep it so you can calculate what your silver and gold portfolio was worth at end-2011.

Looking at the 2010-2011 results, this was not a year for commodities. Platinum and Palladium, down 26.9% and 23.5%, took the biggest hits this year, and silver lost 10.9%. Yet in the teeth of all that, gold rose 9.2%. Hmmmm.

The GOLD SILVER RATIO gained 18.2% in 2011, so we made the right move selling the ratio (swapping silver into gold) early last year. We have now come in the last two days to within a gnat's eyebrow of our 57.5 trigger point to swap back from GOLD into SILVER, but market has not hit that yet. If it ever comes, it ought to come very soon.

In the Potemkin economy, stocks finished the year blowing hot and cold out of both sides of their mouth. Dow gained 5.3%, but the Dow comprises only 30 giant stocks. The broader S&P500 gained -- nothing. Virtually identically flat, from 1,2547.52 to 1,257.60.

Nasdaq lost 1.8% for the year; Nasdaq 100 gained 2.7%, while the very, very broad Wilshire 5000 lost 1.3%. Banner year, huh?

'Twasn't really a year for the US dollar, either, which gained a meager 1.3%. However, the dollar is now rallying. If it can penetrate 80.50, it will run very hard in the first quarter for 83.50, maybe much higher (88.50).

One thing you must keep foremost in your mind: THE BULL MARKET IN SILVER and GOLD HAS NOT ENDED. It will run another three to ten years.

No harbinger flits above the horizon signaling that the economy will get better next year, or that governments and central banks have yet learned their lessons, namely, they cannot efficiently control the economy or the money supply, and that inflating the currency will not cure a depression caused by inflating the currency and government economic interference.

In other words, they are all dead as do-do birds, along with their system, but they refuse to recognize it, lie down, and die without torturing the rest of the world several more years. Eventually they will be abolished, but how many more tears and years will be needed?

Today the Dollar lost a meaningless 13.6 basis points (0.17%) to 80.361. It remains in its uptrend. However, the Japanese yen flashed out its sword and cut my head off. Just about the time I thought it was going nowhere, it jumped 0.96% to 130.06c/Y100 (Y76.89/$1). The yen has vaulted over its 20 day moving average (128.49) and its 50 DMA (129.08). Unless the yen backs off immediately, it has its eye on 131 or higher.

On 30 December 1861 the US government and banks stopped paying out gold for gold obligations. Not much new, is there? They've been cheating us for centuries, banks and governments.

God bless you all in 2012 and always!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, December 29, 2011

The Gold Price Closed at $1,539.90 I Would Not Sell Silver or Gold Here

Gold Price Close Today : 1539.90
Change : (23.10) or -1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 2727.40
Change : 8.20 cents or 0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 56.460
Change : -1.020 or -1.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01771
Change : 0.000314 or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1367.70
Change : -16.30 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 631.75
Change : -0.70 or -0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,263.02
Change : -15.79 or -1.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $164.94
Change : $ 0.60 or 0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.979
Change : 0.029 or 0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 450.50
Change : -6.50 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,287.04
Change : -139.94 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index : 80.36
Change : -0.136 or -0.2%

Is silver non-confirming the GOLD PRICE fall, or is gold non-confirming the SILVER PRICE rise?

Clue comes from the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which fell today and closed Comex at 56.460. It reached my 57.25:1 target overnight, but markets never saw that price today. It should yet appear.

Premium on US 90% silver coin keeps on rising, pointing to higher silver prices.

Silver defended 2600c level with a low at 2614c. High came at 2785c.

As long as the GOLD PRICE keeps on closing above $1,530 and silver above 2600c, they're good. Longer they hold on above those points, less chance they will dip below them.

Often markets are influence by year-end selling that has nothing to do with outlook or economics, only with some goofy government mandate that skews the economy. We may be seeing some of that, and certainly in stocks all those mutual fund managers and financial advisors want to see stocks fill the year just a bit, just any bit at all, higher than unchanged or negative.

We'll see what happens when sobriety returns on 2 January 2012.

I would NOT sell SILVER or GOLD here. Let's see if silver will drop once again before we go hog-wild buying, though.

Talking to a friend of mine from West Texas a few days ago, he said he had seen the weather there go from 80 degrees in the morning to 20 degrees that night. So they have a saying, if you don't like the weather, just hang around. It'll change soon enough.

I feel the same way about silver and gold today, but when they change directions twice in one day, they like to wear out my thermometer.

I am learning how to react to news events. I look across everything for the most meaningless item, and THAT will be what the media pundits pick out as the day's pivotal event.

Today's bait for the causality-challenged came in the form of a report claiming the labor market is "healing." Now even with the Labor Dept's jimmying, jobless claims rose to 381,000 from 366,000 last week, yet fewer filed for unemployment in the past month than any in the past three years. What are y'all waiting for? Break out the champagne!

Well, I say, One Hobo doth Not a Jungle Make. And if all you've got to brag about is that this month showed the smallest job losses of any out of the last 36, well, friend, you ought to put your hand over your mouth and retreat in silent shame.

Yet hath the stock market not received it thus. The Dow rose 135.63 (1.12%) to 12,287.04 while the S&P500 roses 13.38 (1.07%) to 1,263.02. In the Moneychanger's tiny mind, the unemployment report would have generated no jubilation, but once again you see the perilous failure of following both stocks AND rationality.

In my mind the Dow rising again to 12,300 resistance offers a splendid opportunity for another double-top failure. Should the Dow falter at 12,300, watch 12,150, because that will be the first trip-wire of a much larger fall.

US DOLLAR INDEX is down 13.6 basis points (0.17%) to 80.361. Mattereth not, so long as it remains above morale-maintaining 80, and technical support at 79.50. Trend in force remains in force until violated, and this trend is up.

Euro hardly worth talking about. Close at 1.2962, up 0.16%, but what a little mouse-burp deal. Who cares? Yen rose 0.42% to 128.82c/Y100 (Y77.63/$1), edging away from its lower channel line, at least enough so that you could slip a thin piece of paper between it and the line. Nothing happening there.

I felt like a bimetallic thermostat in West Texas today, not knowing whether to heat or cool. Gold fell a meaty 1.5%, down $23.10 to $1,539.90 on Comex (low came at -- Eeek! -- $1,522!) but silver ROSE 8.2C to 2727.4c, then rose another 50c in the aftermarket!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, December 28, 2011

The Gold Price Fell After Breaking Support, New Support at $1,535 - $1,500

Gold Price Close Today : 1562.90
Change : (31.30) or -2.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 2719.20
Change : 150.5 cents or -5.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 57.476
Change : 1.924 or 3.5%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01740
Change : -0.000602 or -3.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1384.00
Change : -53.10 or -3.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 632.45
Change : -31.05 or -4.7%

S&P 500 : 1,249.64
Change : -15.79 or -1.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $160.72
Change : $ 1.36 or 0.9%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.775
Change : 0.066 or 0.9%

Dow in SILVER oz : 446.87
Change : 18.56 or 4.3%

Dow Industrial : 12,151.41
Change : -139.94 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index : 80.50
Change : 0.702 or 0.9%

The GOLD PRICE fell 2% ($31.30) on Comex to $1,562.90. If it had only stopped there, it wouldn't have been so bad, but it lost another ten bucks in the aftermarket.

Meanwhile the SILVER PRICE lost 5.2% (150.5c) to close at 2719.2c. Low came at 2689c. Low for gold at $1,549.66.

No surprise here, since we all knew that if SILVER and GOLD broke support, they would fall a good piece. Silver must now reckon with 2615c and gold with $1,535 - $1,500, maybe even $1,475.

The break today for the GOLD PRICE came around $1,582. For silver it was 2850c, whence it fell a dollar and a half.

SILVER's condition is more precarious. Below that 2615c shelf lies very little support to catch silver. Oh, there's a little bit at 2500c, and another little bit at 2250c, but below that it's 2000c or lower.

Here's a little straw in the wind. The premium on US 90% silver coin, a reliable indicator, has risen. Generally that means silver is nearing some bottom or getting ready to rise, since it implies that sellers are becoming much more reluctant to part with their silver.

Silver's RSI is also very low and oversold, but of course oversold can always get more oversold..

Big success story is the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which reinforces for us the wisdom of trading the gold/silver swapping strategy. Our customers who this time last year swapped out of silver into gold, even though later events showed that we swapped too early, can now swap that gold back into silver and realize gains of more than 25% in silver ounces. You think they're crying? Not much.

Market played with our 57.50:1 ratio target today, but never really climbed above that. Comex closed at 57.476. Unless silver gives a dead cat bounce tomorrow, we ought to see our ratio target met at 57.5:1. If you do not have an open order with us, I can only say, "Please take a place in line." We were swamped today, and I apologize for the delays, but if we had 200 people working here it wouldn't suffice at times like these. Leave a message, be patient, we will get to you.

Adding to the frenzy were people who have been waiting for silver and gold to hit these levels to BUY. I can't argue with them, because I've been here so many times before. Surest way to lose is to keep holding out for just another dime lower. You never get it, because greed is never satisfied. Best to pick a number you can live with, and buy when the market hits that number, sucking in your gut and outraging your fears. Remember the proverb, "Bulls get rich, and bears get rich, but pigs get slaughtered."

FEAR took over the wheel again today. News reports claim that investors are worried about Italy's sale of long term debt tomorrow. News reports do not say why they weren't worried about it yesterday, when it was every bit as big a problem. If Diogenes thought he had a tough time finding an honest man 2,500 years ago, that couldn't compare to the difficulty of finding a rational man today.

Stocks bounced off the fatal 12,300 level by 139.94 points (1.14%) to close at 12,151.41. S&P500 ricocheted also, down 15.79 (1.25%) to 1,249.64, and "in negative territory for the year" as the current prating and prattling mantra expresses it.

Fear is fatal to stocks, and fear won't go away. The specter of Europe is haunting stocks. The new year will not exorcise the demon.

US dollar index today rose 0.9%, 70.2 basis points, to the top of its recent range at 80.499. Once it cleared that 79.80 mark, it shot up like a bottle rocket. Fear will also drive the dollar higher, even though that's like fleeing a lion and finding safety in a bear's den.

Euro dropped 0.98% today and hit a 15 month low at 1.2941. 1.2000 doesn't look so far away now, does it?

Japanese Yen climbed today as if it meant to gain ground, but at day's end was lower than yesterday by 0.12% at 128.28c/Y100 (Y77.95-$1). Dollar is king in the land of scrofulous, scurvy, scruffy, and scary fiat currencies.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Gold Price Fell Below $1,600, Expect a Move Higher Before the Week Ends

Gold Price Close Today : 1594.20
Change : (10.50) or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 2869.70
Change : 34.90 cents or -1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.553
Change : 0.306 or 0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01800
Change : -0.000100 or -0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1437.10
Change : 5.10 or 0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 663.50
Change : 38.05 or 6.1%

S&P 500 : 1,265.43
Change : 0.01 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $159.38
Change : $ 1.03 or 0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.710
Change : 0.050 or 0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 428.31
Change : 5.06 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial : 12,291.35
Change : -2.65 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 79.80
Change : -0.440 or -0.5%

Interpreting the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE moves here lately is a work in progress. The GOLD PRICE gave back much of last week's gains by falling below $1,600 again. Lost $10.50 today to $1,594.20. Before you roll up your shirtsleeve and look for a razor blade, hang on. Last week gold punched through its 200 day moving average (now $1,621.83). It bounced off that, a wholly normal move. Let's guess it might even touch $1,570, then turn around and head for $1,680. Unless it closes below $1,562.50, that's what I expect, a move higher before the week ends.

The SILVER PRICE stands nearly on top of its uptrend line connecting the end-September and December lows. It's time to fish or cut bait. Should silver fall below 2800c, it will signal further falls coming, at least to 2600c. Today on Comex silver fell 34.9c to 2869.7.

As it now stands, though, I expect silver to turn around from here and rise again. It's a roll of the dice, however.

I drove down nearly to Birmingham today to swap four shoats for two Great Pyrenees pups, and it was COLD. I think I got the better part of that bargain, but then again, you can't eat dogs. Leastways, better not in Tennessee. Most people will shoot you if you eat their dog, hot dogs excepted.

For all the crowing about stocks ending the year in "positive territory," 'tain't much to brag about. Dow closed 2010 at 11,573.42, so today's price brings it up by a not-very-remarkable 6.2% -- not since it has had almost 365 days to do something. S&P500 is up by only 0.63% (yes, the decimal point IS in the right spot).

Now why do you reckon that the broader measure of the stock market, the S&P500, would have risen a slight less-than-two-thirds-of-one-percent while the Dow with only 30 stocks rose 6.2%? As Yogurt said in the movie, Space Balls, "Moichendizing!" My guess is the Nice Government Men wanted the widely-watched Dow to look good for the year, but what do I know? Nothing. I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee.

Today the Dow dropped 2.65 (0.02%) to 12,291.35. I have repeatedly said I didn't expect the Dow to beat 12,200 -- so call it 12,300. It's all the same resistance level. S&P500 closed 1,265.43, up -- get this -- 0.1. Big day on the trading floor.

Here's a little ditty for 2012:
Eschew stocks
In 2012
Or buy a shovel
And learn to delve.

Scrofulous US dollar index dropped 0.06% today, 44 basis points, to land at 79.796. Looks like NGM trying to square their books at year end with last year's 79.173 close. Makes no never mind. Dollar remains above the sharply rising uptrend line that began off the late October bottom. Unless it closes below 79.25, buck remains in an uptrend.

Scurvy euro profited from the dollar's stumble to rise 0.15% to 1.3068. It headeth still for 1.2000.

Scruffy yen gained 0.32% today, hopping off its bottom support line to perch on the 20 DMA. Look at the chart. It's being managed.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, December 22, 2011

The Gold Price May Have Bottomed At $1,562.50 and Will Now Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1,608.90
Gold Price Close 16-Dec : 1,595.60
Change : 13.30 or 0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 2900.10
Silver Price Close 16-Dec : 2961.50
Change : -61.40 or -2.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.477
Gold Silver Ratio 16-Dec : 53.878
Change : 1.60 or 3.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01803
Silver Gold Ratio 16-Dec : 0.01856
Change : -0.00054 or -2.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 156.15
Dow in Gold Dollars 16-Dec : $ 153.66
Change : $ 2.49 or 1.6%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.554
Dow in Gold Ounces 16-Dec : 7.434
Change : 0.12 or 1.6%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 419.07
Dow in Silver Ounces 16-Dec : 400.50
Change : 18.56 or 4.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,153.42
Dow Industrial 16-Dec : 11,860.94
Change : 292.48 or 2.5%

S&P 500 : 1,252.46
S&P 500 16-Dec : 1,219.26
Change : 33.20 or 2.7%

US Dollar Index : 79.944
US Dollar Index 16-Dec : 80.177
Change : -0.233 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,423.50
Platinum Price Close 16-Dec : 1,417.10
Change : 6.40 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 654.50
Palladium Price Close 16-Dec : 622.30
Change : 32.20 or 5.2%

The GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE both lengthened out their correction today. Gold fell another $3 to $1,608.90 and silver fell 19.7c to 2900.1c.

I'm not crying because this doesn't look bad. Markets go up, then they go down. The up part off the Monday lows looked like a market in agreement with itself. Fall from Wednesday peak looked like a market chastened and correcting, but not worried. Today should have marked the limit of the decline.

In any event, it's important for the GOLD PRICE to hold on at the $1,600 level to confirm its intent to rise. Silver's level is not as critical to the whole metals complex right now, because silver is following and not leading. However, it gladdens my eyes that silver has for two days defended the 2900c level. To confirm gold it needs to hold on there, but that's not as critical to a bullish picture as what gold does.

The resistance-to-beat for gold now becomes $1,616, and for silver 2965c.

You've witnessed a fairly rare event, a metals low in December. Only about 40% chance of that.

Paid subscribers know how negative my outlook on silver and gold was when I published the December Moneychanger on 19 December. I HAVE CHANGED MY OUTLOOK. Here's is my changed outlook and strategy.

It now appears that gold MAY have bottomed at $1,562.50 and silver at 2812c. How will we know? Both metals will rally from here, reaching perhaps $1,675 for the GOLD PRICE and 3200c for the SILVER PRICE. Then they will react, correcting downwards toward but not necessarily all the way to those previous lows. IF they can hold those levels, perhaps not quite reaching those levels, AND then turn up again, THAT is our buy signal. If they cannot hold those levels, then we wait to buy. EITHER WAY, we will be buying soon because the bull market has NOT ended and this correction offers us an opportunity to load up the boat. Recent news out of Europe shows that the ECB will print as much money as necessary to try to float Europe out of its bank solvency crisis. In other words, it will repeat the Fed's 2008 inflationary paroxysm. The cause remains, the trend continues. Count on it, and ignore the self-appointed gurus who are prematurely announcing gold's funeral. As we say in the South, they are a "mite previous."

Markets are slowing down before the Christmas holiday. Nobody wants to go home for a long weekend with a big position, so they trim them down and things get quiet. Generally.

I'm writing this about 2:00 p.m., and stocks have inched higher. Dow has risen 45.65 (0.38%) to 12,153.42; S&P500 is up 8.74 (0.7%) to 1,252.46.

The Great Milestone for the Dow is at 12,200. If it fails there, it's curtains, because it will be the third time, and on charts, third time isn't the charm, it's the calamity.

US DOLLAR danceth yet with the 80 level, trading now down 7.8 basis points (0.1%) at 79.944. Appears that yesterday saw the low for the dollar's correction at 79.20. The uptrend line today stands a tad below that level, so the US dollar remains in its upward trend.

Euro lost a tiny 0.04% to 1.3045. It is destined for lesser things, say, 1.200. The yen is looking a bit iffy, stalled right on the bottom of the range as if trying to break down. Now at 127.93c/Y100 (Y78.17/$1).

HOUSEKEEPING: I will be out of the office to celebrate Christmas so will not be sending commentaries tomorrow, 23 December, through Monday, 26 December. We will be in the office during the 12 Days of Christmas only for limited hours. Our regular schedule resumes 4 January 2012. Merry Christmas and may God bless and prosper y'all in 2012 and always!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Gold Price Buy Signal Will Be a Slight Rise After Correcting Near $1,562.50, Will it Hold?

Gold Price Close Today : 1611.90
Change : (3.70) or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 29.198
Change : (0.298) cents or -1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.206
Change : 0.432 or 0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01811
Change : -0.000143 or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1430.40
Change : -1.60 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 633.60
Change : 8.15 or 1.3%

S&P 500 : 1,243.72
Change : 2.42 or 0.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $155.28
Change : $ 0.42 or 0.3%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.511
Change : 0.021 or 0.3%

Dow in SILVER oz : 414.68
Change : 4.33 or 1.1%

Dow Industrial : 12,107.74
Change : 4.16 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 80.01
Change : 0.127 or 0.2%

The GOLD PRICE backed off a bit, but sort of like a big monster with a two foot pistol at his belt backs off in a bar after he's stepped on your foot.

The GOLD PRICE lost 3.70 to close Comex at $1,611.90. The SILVER PRICE lost 29.8c to 2919.80. These prices lie on the lower side of today's range, since gold reached $1,641.23 today and silver 2962.6c. Lows came at $1,606.22 and 2911c.

I have just about flip-flopped from my bearish outlook on metals. The rise up of Monday's lows looks like an impulsive wave, and not corrective. That little robin doesn't by itself make a spring, but points strongly in that direction. The real test will come when metals correct after this rally and draws near the last lows at $1,562.50 and 2812c. If they can reach down there and not fall through, then rise just a leetle to confirm, we will have our buy signal. Of course, if they fall through those levels, we'll know to wait a while.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO today closed at 55.206. That's not reached my 57.5:1 target yet, but if you swapped silver for gold at ratios below 42:1, swapping gold back into silver would give you a roughly 30% profit in ounces. Better do that quickly.

Came out today that the European Central Bank (ECB), notwithstanding its loud protestations that it would NOT serve as lender of last resort, has doled out nearly half a trillion euros to 523 banks. in December. How has it passed out the money? Simply make loans to banks at bargain basement prices. But no, no, no, this isn't quantitative easing or Money Printing, just like it's not really stealing when you take stuff while nobody's looking.

I don't know, y'all tell me: is half a trillion new euros inflation?

Dollar index bounced back -- not a big bounce, just a tee-tiny bounce -- and that put the kabosh on stocks, silver, and gold. Readers keep on asking me why silver and gold seem to be moving together with stocks. In the short term, even for a year or more, they might move together, depending on market conditions-- investor fads. Over time, however, they do NOT trend together. Look at the chart of the Dow in Gold since 1999 or the Dow in Silver since 2001 and you'll see what I mean. Stocks have lost 85% against silver and gold since then.

Dow gained a phenomenal 4.16 points (0.03%) to close 12,107.74. S&P500 soared 2.42 points (0.19%). If the Dow cannot break through 12,200-ish, 'tis doomed to fail. In any event, they will severely lag gold and silver for the next 3-10 years.

Y'all need to go back and study the 1920-1923 German hyperinflation. Since stocks represent bricks and mortar, and since inflations generate speculation, German stocks rose hundreds of time but in the end they lost value. Silver and gold survived the hyperinflation with value intact.

Back to the scrofulous fiat currencies. The US dollar index rose 12.7 basis points (0.16%) not much but above the morale-boosting 80 level. Too early to state dogmatically, but so far looks like the dollar rally has survived this correction.

Euro sank 0.25% to 1.3047. Japanese yen lost a tad, 0.24%, to 128.08c/Y100 (Y78.04/$1). Yen isn't going to do much, but after this little correction, the euro will sink spectacularly.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, December 20, 2011

The Gold Price and Silver Price had a Field Day, Gold up 1.3 Percent

Gold Price Close Today : 1615.60
Change : 21.20 or 1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 2949.60
Change : 67.40 cents or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.774
Change : -0.545 or -1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01826
Change : 0.000180 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1432.00
Change : 24.70 or 1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 625.45
Change : 16.80 or 2.8%

S&P 500 : 1,205.35
Change : -14.31 or -1.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $150.55
Change : $ (3.28) or -2.1%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.283
Change : -0.159 or -2.1%

Dow in SILVER oz : 398.91
Change : -12.80 or -3.1%

Dow Industrial : 11,766.26
Change : -100.13 or -0.8%

US Dollar Index : 79.83
Change : -0.421 or -0.5%

Mercy! The SILVER and GOLD PRICE had a field day. On Comex the GOLD PRICE rose $21.20 (1.3%), smashed through $1,605 resistance, and closed $1,615.60. Silver rose 67.4c (2.3%)to 2949.6.

That's good, but it ain't exactly crossing over Jordan into the promised land just yet.

Above lies resistance at $1,625, then $1,650, then $1,687. If this rally exceeds $1,675 it will command our attention and respect. Till then it earns only watching. And we'll find out something about that last low ($1,562.50) when this little rally-ette runs out of steam.

The SILVER PRICE shone with a 2.3% rise, and Mondays trading looks like some sort of bottom -- permanent or interim is another question -- but now the rally meets real resistance at 2980. Must clear that barrier to maintain its reputation. To give y'all a nearer idea where today brings silver, think on this: the down trend line stands overhead at 3050c. Today's high reached only 2959c.

All today's work was constructive, but settled nothing. Silver and gold remain in downtrends. They are only corrective downtrends, interrupting a primary bull market (uptrend), but down for the nonce still.

Appears I got it exactly wrong at the exact bottom, facing yesterday's outlook to today's performance. Ahh, the obese female hath not yet sung her aria, so let me cover my embarrassment with patience.

Euphoria's mother today was a pledge from Europe to pony up 150 bn euros ($196 bn), which they don't have, to the IMF to apply to the European debt crisis, where the questionable debt amounts to $3 trillion, 15 times the magnanimous contribution. ECB also widened its support for bond markets (NYT-speak for I don't know what), German economic confidence indicators rose, and the US Commerce Dep't said builders broke ground on 9.3% more new homes in November than in October, while building permits jumped 5.7%. This number is rock solid until the adjustments are published next month.

Yeah, buddy! All that sounds like the world economy and the European crisis turning the corner to me. Right. Anyhow, that's how markets reacted as if "Happy Days Are Here Again."

STOCK buyers fell into a frenzy like lemmings on their way to the coast. Dow jumped 337.32 points or 2.8% to 12,103.58. S&P 500 rose 2.98% (35.95) to 1,241.30. This positions stocks for a triple top just above 12,200.

SOURPUSS! You might say, You never have any- thing good to say about stocks! And you'd be right, as I have nothing good to say about any market that is in a primary down trend (bear market) and technically looks as ratty as an old 1970s burnt orange polyester leisure suit.

Technically that took stocks above the 200 day moving average (11,936). Since they are already above the 50 DMA (11,835), that does give them upward momentum. At least until the next piece of bad news out of Europe sends scuttles investor hopes.

Dow will not pass 12,300; S&P500 won't rise above 1,280.

I reckon time's come for me to get more accurate and precise about the US dollar index. Today it lost 42.1 basis points, down 0.54%, to 79.829. I've been saying it needs to hold 80. Have I changed my mind?

Nope, I've just sharpened my pencil. The actual support line is 79.84 - 79.70, site of the last two peaks. today the dollar came back to that line, so today's action is not fatal.

More than that, the uptrend line right now stands just a mite above 79. Long as dollar doesn't break that, it will still be rallying.

Now I'm just a natural born fool, but if I were them Nice Government Men and I wanted to boost the euro and trim the dollar, I'd wait for some nested good news, or make some up, and then I'd buy them stock futures real heavy early in the day, to make it look like some mad buying panic was carrying away the public, just to sort of spark a rally like.

But what do I know?

Euro today rose 0.63% to close at 1.3080. Another few points and it'll hit my 1.3200 target where the trend line stands in its way, and stop like a wild steer running headfirst into a concrete block wall.

Japanese Yen rose 0.18% to close 128.39c/Y100 (Y77.89/$1). Nothing happening there.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, December 19, 2011

With the Gold Price this Low it's Your Opportunity to Buy One Last Time at Bargain Basement Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1594.40
Change : -1.20 or -0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 2882.20
Change : -79.3 cents or -2.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.319
Change : 1.441 or 2.7%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01808
Change : -0.000483 or -2.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1407.30
Change : -9.80 or -0.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 608.65
Change : -13.65 or -2.2%

S&P 500 : 1,205.35
Change : -14.31 or -1.2%

Dow In GOLD$ : $152.55
Change : $ (1.17) or -0.8%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.380
Change : -0.056 or -0.8%

Dow in SILVER oz : 408.24
Change : 7.55 or 1.9%

Dow Industrial : 11,766.26
Change : -100.13 or -0.8%

US Dollar Index : 80.38
Change : 0.114 or 0.1%

The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE what is going on? I can't get around this conclusion that the Big Cause right now is the European bank solvency crisis. It's huge, it's hungry, and it can't be fixed and ain't being fixed. When the panic begins, as it did in 2008, the drain sucks down everything in a heartbeat.

And I will keep on saying this until y'all put your hands over your ears and run for cover: THIS IS NOT THE END OF SILVER and the GOLD PRICE BULL MARKET. This is your opportunity to buy one last time at bargain basement prices. Wait a while if you please. Sure, all the wild numbers are possible, gold at $950 and silver at $16 -- POSSIBLE, but neither you nor I can read the future perfectly. Hence, we weigh possibilities and probabilities and make the best choice we can and trust God for the outcome.

Here's what's happening right now. As long as the SILVER PRICE holds 2600c and the GOLD PRICE holds $1,535, no big drop is coming. Below those levels gold falls to $1,475 support and silver to 2000c.

Today GOLD backed off to $1,594.40, giving back $1.20 but remaining above $1,590 (low struck at $1,585.80). On the other hand, gold was stopped at $1,607.40, so couldn’t pierce that $,1,605 resistance.

Why is the premium on US 90% silver coin rising? That generally only happens at bottoms, even at interim bottoms. But strengthened it has.

SILVER lost 79.3c and closed Comex at 2882.2c, a whopping 2.7% loss compared to gold's nothing change. Well, it's to be expected that silver in a correction will be weaker than gold. If that surprises you, you ought to go back to playing pinball machines, because you haven't yet understood this game.

One thing that makes me suspect even my own bearishness is this: when everybody believes a market is going much lower, it won't. Nobody is left to sell it.

But I am willing myself to be patient here and watch silver and gold unfold, and to watch every indicator very closely -- I have indicators y'all know not of -- for the least sign of a turnaround.

I have posted the December Moneychanger at www.the-moneychanger.com for paid subscribers.

At http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-silver-rush-at-mf-global-.html you can read how the MF global bankruptcy trustee is picking the pockets of the victims/former customers who held Warehouse Receipts for physical silver and gold through MF Global.

First, get this clear in your mind. Until now a "Warehouse Receipt" has been a sacrosanct security, a receipt for stored physical gold and silver, that has never been repudiated, since memory runneth not to the contrary. Yet now MF Global and this bankruptcy trustee, have found a way to render WRs worthless.

Apparently MF Global bought Incredible Shrinking Gold and Silver for its customers, since the trustee proposes dumping it all into a pool and paying only 72% of what's owed -- not physical gold or silver, mind you. So although the gold was supposed to be (1) wholly owned by the customer and segregated and (2) therefore not subject to MF Global's bankruptcy and (3) supposed to be held in physical form under bond, it ain't there.

I offer this account as an example of why I have kept on telling y'all with excruciating regularity and consistency that YOU MUST TAKE PHYSICAL DELIVERY OF YOUR SILVER and GOLD. I have been warning for years that huge amounts of unbacked paper silver circulate, and that at some point in this bull market some large safekeeper of silver and gold will default, and will be discovered to have the equivalent of wooden bars painted silver and gold.

Yes, yes, I know people point at me and snicker that I'm just a suspicious natural born fool from Tennessee, uncouth and unsophisticated in the wise ways of Wall Street. Indeed, that may be true, but MF Global didn't pick MY pocket. Folks, y'all can trust Wall Street. Y'all can trust the financial and banking establishment. Y'all can trust the US government and the Federal Reserve. Y'all can trust them to steal your money, your clothes, your peanut butter sandwich, and throw you out of a boat holding on to an anvil and poke fun at you as you sink.

Trust me. I know 'em.

I'm trying to get past the bearish pictures on the gold and silver charts and remind myself that foregone conclusions do not exist. Somebody is doing Legion's job talking down silver and gold when they've ensnared me. Now that both metals have bounced (Friday), we'll get a better idea of how bad this will be. But more later.

STOCKS are now catching up with silver and gold. Dow today lost 100.13 (0.84%) to close at 11,766.26. S&P500 closed 1,205.35, down 14.31 (1.17%) and 5 scant points from crushing morale by dropping below 1200. Silver and gold's outlook may be fraught with pain, but at least after a while they will come back -- stocks won't. At least, in no span of time likely to do y'all any good.

Despite the best efforts of the Nice Government Men and Central Bank Lackeys and Running Dogs (CBLARD), the US dollar index rose again today, up 11.4 basis points (0.15%), still hanging in above 80. Dollar is rallying, European crisis is driving it, it will go higher before this ends. That will make life difficult for silver and gold.

Meanwhile the euro sank beneath 1.3000 again to 1.2995, down 0.41%. Gazing upon the euro, the move from 1.4247 in November down to 1.2945 last week, may be a fully completed move. If so, the euro will correct briefly, up to l.3200 or so, before it resumes its plunge toward the earth's core.

The Japanese yen looks ready to move lower, but has established a support line over the last 1-1/2 months about 128c/Y100. Closed today at 128.15c/Y100 (Y78.03/$1), down .36%.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, December 16, 2011

Gold Price Rose $21 Today, Lost 6.8% This Week, Silver and Gold Remain in a Primary Uptrend With 3 to 10 Years to Run

Gold Price Close Today : 1,595.60
Gold Price Close 9-Dec : 1,712.80
Change : -117.20 or -6.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 2961.5
Silver Price Close 9-Dec : 3217.3
Change : -255.80 or -8.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.878
Gold Silver Ratio 9-Dec : 53.237
Change : 0.64 or 1.2%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01856
Silver Gold Ratio 9-Dec : 0.01878
Change : -0.00022 or -1.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 153.66
Dow in Gold Dollars 9-Dec : $ 147.05
Change : $ 6.61 or 4.5%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.434
Dow in Gold Ounces 9-Dec : 7.114
Change : 0.32 or 4.5%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 400.50
Dow in Silver Ounces 9-Dec : 378.71
Change : 21.79 or 5.8%

Dow Industrial : 11,860.94
Dow Industrial 9-Dec : 12,184.26
Change : -323.32 or -2.7%

S&P 500 : 1,219.26
S&P 500 9-Dec : 1,255.19
Change : -35.93 or -2.9%

US Dollar Index : 80.177
US Dollar Index 9-Dec : 78.632
Change : 1.545 or 2.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,417.10
Platinum Price Close 9-Dec : 1,516.30
Change : -99.20 or -6.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 622.30
Palladium Price Close 9-Dec : 683.20
Change : -60.90 or -8.9%

It was as painful a week as the GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE have seen in a long stretch. Silver lost 8%, gold lost 6.8%, and lots of folks who were thinking they were going to retire on their silver and gold profits have trimmed their plans back to working an hour less every day.

Today the GOLD PRICE gold rose $21 to close Comex at $1,595.60. SILVER gained 39c to close at 2961.5c. These are not significant gains, just dead cat bounces at the end of the week where people pull out profits so they can go home to Long Island and drink martinis all weekend with a clear conscience, unworried about what markets will do on Monday.

Gold's low this week came yesterday at $1,563.90, etching the chart with what appears to be a bottom at $1,560 -- well, better "support" than "bottom," and overhead resistance at $1,600.

'Tis always important to fade the crowd's enthusiasm. Right now nobody can see anything but silver and gold falling forever, extrapolating present conditions out into the future forever, world without end.

Don't make sense. After this hard a fall, metals will at least stage a little rise in correction. And I've been cogitating most earnestly where they might go. Searching thereafter, I came across the moving averages, and staring at those leaves me thinking that bottoms will come sooner rather than later, although this whole correction might torture us all the way to June 2012. It all depends on the European crisis, whether it explodes or not, and I don't know. If it doesn't, you won't see gold drop below $1,535. Otherwise, it could drop to $1,250, even $950 where the long term trend line comes in.

Y'all want promises, don't you? Sorry, life doesn't work that way. It breaks my heart, but you marry and then your wife dies. You have children and lose them. The only alternative to such terrifying risks is, never to love, never to try, never to risk, and take your bones to the grave in perfectly safe boredom. Yes, you might lose, but I'd rather throw the dice once and lose than die wondering what they would have come up.

One last detail: silver has posted at bottom at 2809.8 yesterday. Above is resistance at 3000c. If it breaks 2800c 'twill drop to 2700c. Possible is 2000c, maybe lower.

Listen! Silver and gold remain in a primary uptrend (bull market) with another 3 to 10 years to run. Don't be sucked in by Talking Heads promising the gold bull market has ended. They're wrong. Stick with your silver and gold, buy more.

Scoreboard for the week stores up pain for everyone: stocks down, silver and gold down blisteringly, US dollar index up, up, up. All the gurus are guruing that it's the end for silver and gold, but I reckon that's a MITE previous.

Really only one question remains: whether the 2011 European bank solvency crisis will explode into a crisis as bad as the 2008 American bank solvency crisis. Everything else is like a killdeer flying up in front of your face. She's NOT the action, she's just flying away from her nest to distract you from the real action, the nest.

Any time I mention the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, I get a flurry of emails asking me what I am talking about. I think it's simple, but then I've been thinking about it for 30 years.

The gold/silver ratio is gold divided by silver. That's a fraction, and when the fraction's numerator (the top number) increases, the fraction's value increases. When the fraction's bottom number (the denominator) increases, the fraction decreases. 4/4 is greater than 2/4. 1/2 is greater than 1/4. That means that the more gold rises (increases) against silver, the higher the ratio rises. The more silver outperforms gold, the lower the ratio sinks (decreases). At high ratios we swap gold for silver, because then silver is cheap relative to gold. At low ratios we swap silver for gold, because then gold is cheap relative to silver. Right now the ratio is relatively -- high compared to where it's been in the last six months -- but I expect it will go higher still. Why? Because silver is more volatile than gold, so when both metals are swinging up, silver rises faster. When both metals are dropping, silver drops faster. Whichever direction the metals are moving, gold plods and silver jumps in seven league boots. (Remember, though, that they don't move this way every single day, and that silver usually waits until a rally has been running some time before it begins outpacing gold.) Put that way, I guess it is pretty complicated. Y'all will find the swapping strategy explained at http://www.the-moneychanger.com/articles_files/mmm_files/silver_files/silver_will_outperform.php

Stocks sank nearly 3% this week. Today the Dow closed at 11,860.94, down a tee-tiny 3.51 or 0.29%. S&P 500 rose 5.21 (0.73%) to 1,219.26.

Dow is hovering above its 50 day moving average (now 11,808), having already dropped through its 200 day moving average and turned its momentum unarguably down, down, down. Falling through that 50 dma will be like stepping off a cliff into the dark, toward the rocks below -- WAY below.

Maybe a lot of y'all don't really catch why I am so much more negative on stocks than I am on silver and gold. Aren't both dropping? Didn't silver and gold drop even more than stocks this week?

Yes, but you are missing the most important consideration: AGAINST WHAT BACKDROP? Stocks are in a primary bear market, a downtrend that will last 15 - 20 years from when it began in 2000, while silver and gold are in a primary Uptrend that will last 15 - 20 years from its 2001 beginning.

Y'all get it now?

No matter how good stocks look for the nonce, no matter how sorry gold and silver, makes no difference cause the PRIMARY TREND will determine the ultimate outcome.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose two percent this week. Here's a guess, only a guess: the Nice Government Men have been working day and night round the clock since last summer to suppress the dollar. Had they not, the flight out of the euro would have driven the dollar to 92 by now.

Don't make no difference. Dollar today closed down 14.4 basis points (0.19%) on its way to 83 and higher. Count on it.

Euro closed 1.3035, up 0.17%, on its way to 1.2000. Japanese Yen closed up 0.1% at 128.56c/Y100 (Y77.78/$1), on its way nowhere.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, December 15, 2011

The Gold Price Close Down 0.6% to Close at $1,574.60

Gold Price Close Today : 1574.60
Change : -9.70 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 2922.50
Change : 34.40 cents or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.879
Change : -0.978 or -1.8%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01856
Change : 0.000331 or 1.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1403.20
Change : -17.50 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 617.95
Change : -0.45 or -0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,215.75
Change : 3.93 or 0.3%

Dow In GOLD$ : $155.82
Change : $ 1.56 or 1.0%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.538
Change : 0.076 or 1.0%

Dow in SILVER oz : 406.12
Change : -3.27 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial : 11,868.81
Change : 45.33 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.28
Change : -0.308 or -0.4%

Metals had another befuzzled day, with the GOLD PRICE down and the SILVER PRICE up. Gold lost $9.70 to close at $1,574.60 while silver gained 34.4c to 2922.5c. Gold posted its high at $1,593.60 and low at $1,563.90. Silver's range was 2923.6c to 2809.8c.

Yesterday and today the GOLD PRICE has established support at $1,560. SOMEbody is willing to buy it there, and not as many somebodies willing to sell. But that doesn't say $1,560 will hold.

Overnight the SILVER PRICE spiked to a low at 2809.8c, which left behind a bottom-y looking formation. I don't mean "The" bottom, but enough of a platform to stage a bounce off of, say up to 3050c before it runs into opposition.

Tough to describe, but if you drew a line across the May, July, and September gold bottoms, your line would run exactly where gold's fall stopped yesterday and today.

That's not the discovery I made, though. I looked at gold's weekly chart instead of the daily, and something jumped out at my wondering eyes. For the entirety of this bull market, since 2011, the 50 WEEK moving average (now $1,574) has contained any fall. Oh, gold might have pecked thru it by pennies, but save for the giant correction in 2008 when gold dropped through the 50 WMA all the way to and thru the 150 WMA, that 50 WMA has supported the market. No guarantee it will this time, but it's presence nearby implies that gold's decline will halt or slow down. The 150 WMA, in case you are wondering and need something to fret about, lies at $1,267.

If the GOLD PRICE intends to fall a lot further, 'twill do so soon. Otherwise, we keep watching for some confirmation that its fall has ended.

Y'all know already that I went straight to the silver chart to gaze upon the weekly chart. It is not quite as consistent as gold's, but in the main the 50 WMA has also formed the safety net beneath silver. More volatile silver has scratched thru more times that staid gold, but except for 2008, never significantly.

With the 50 WMA now at 3552, SILVER once again, as in 2008, finds itself beneath its 50 WMA. In 2008 once silver broke the 50 WMA it fell to and below the 300 WMA (today at 1865c) before it turned around. The close above that 300 DMA flashed the confirmation that silver's 2008 correction had ended.

These weekly charts suggest that gold's fall may be nearly finished, while silver's is not. That implies a rising GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which suits us just fine. A higher ratio means that we get to swap our gold back into silver and go home with many more ounces than we began with. One thing I like about the gold/silver swapping strategy is that you don't have people talking about jumping off tall buildings when metals drop. Rather, they seize that as an opportunity to increase their ounces by swapping one metal for the other.

Presently the ratio is laboring to break above the 55:1 level. Once it does, it will jump and we will swap.

A word on terms: lots of loose speakers out there don't use words accurately. When I use "bull" or "bear" to describe a market, I don't mean a short phase that lasts 3 or 6 months, but the PRIMARY TREND that runs in the same general direction for 15 to 20 YEARS. Other folks can talk sloppy all they want, but when I use it word it means what I say.

Funny how looking at something from a different angle can entirely change your opinion. I looked at the weekly gold and silver charts today, and was surprised. But more of that later.

The lamebrains were at it again today. Headline ran that "faith in US economic data" had lifted stocks. Ahhh, now there are many things I believe in, seen and unseen, but one thing I do not believe in, and never will, and that's any data from the US government, especially economic data. Even if the diligent data-gatherers at their desks could gather enough accurate and meaningful data, the trimmers in charge would make them "adjust" the data so it gives the politically desired result.

I don't even have to grease up my Ridicule Machine for this one. It's ridiculous enough on its face.

STOCKS did rise today, 38/100th of 1% or 45.33 points to Dow 11,868.81. Wow-de-wow. S&P500 rose 0.32% (3.93 big points) to 1,215.75.

Where do they get the folks who write these headlines, from the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Joint Propaganda Working Group? Look at the 5 day chart. Tuesday the Dow waterfalled thru 11,950 support all the way down to 11,800. It is a market breaking down, like your 20 year old Yugo, burning oil and about to throw a rod.

Back in 2001 it appeared that the Dow would fall to 3,000 or 4,000. It still does.

US DOLLAR INDEX gave back 30.8 basis points (0.4%) to end at 80.281. In the same way that after a big meal you lean back in your arm chair and digest, so is the dollar index. It has gobbled down big gains, and now digesteth. The rally only needs to hold above 80 to remain alive and kicking.

Euro gained 0.22 today to 1.3015 -- as packed with meaning as a 1960s rock song. Twill drop further. Yen gained 0.21% to 128.38c/Y100 (Y77.89/$1), changing nothing.

Usually.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The Gold Price Took a Beating Today, Down 4.6%, Gold and Silver Remain in a Bull Market

Gold Price Close Today : 1584.30
Change : (75.60) or -4.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 2888.10
Change : -231.4 cents or -7.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.856
Change : 1.646 or 3.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01823
Change : -0.000564 or -3.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1420.70
Change : -54.10 or -3.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 618.40
Change : -24.70 or -3.8%

S&P 500 : 1,211.82
Change : -13.91 or -1.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $154.27
Change : $ 5.41 or 3.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.463
Change : 0.261 or 3.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 409.39
Change : 26.15 or 6.8%

Dow Industrial : 11,823.48
Change : -131.46 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index : 80.52
Change : 0.282 or 0.4%

Today was not a banner day for the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE. Gold lost a massive 4.6%, $75.60, to close Comex at $1,584.30. Silver lost 7.4%, 231.4c, and shuttered Comex at 2888.1c.

End of the world? Well, some folks think so, but I've been living on the edge of a volcano for years, and I'm not ready to refugee yet.

If SILVER does not hold around 2900c, then there's very little to catch it between here and lateral support at 2615c, just a little bottom at 2843c. More likely is a drop to 2615c, quickly, or a grinding attrition down to 2000c or even 1715c.

Making some assumptions about silver's behaviour from end-September through last Monday gives me a silver target of 2700c -- if height of formation equals depth of drop.

Where silver will stop I don't know, but I've been whipped like this enough times in the past to know that exactly now, when the screaming enemy is pouring over the parapets and you are running out of ammo is the time you have to get plumb junk-yard dog mean, and make up your mind that you are not going to whine and lose your head. I lived through 2008, when silver dropped from 2067c to 880c, losing more than 100% of the preceding gain, and I saw it come back to 4850c.

THE COMEBACK WILL COME BACK AGAIN.

It may delay, but watch for it. It will surely come.

The GOLD PRICE took a bad beating with a big stick today. High came at $1,641.25, but once it crossed below $1,620, bottom fell out, all the way to $1,558.35. We are getting near my most likely target, $1,535. I will surely close my eyes, bite my lip, and buy there.

The sort of heads-and-shoulders-y formation on the GOLD PRICE chart from end-September to early December -- if that's what it is -- gives a target of $1,546.

Everything I've said tonight aims to calm y'all down and fix your eyes on what is really important, the LONG TERM. I know the internet and the media and all the wise and big-shots in the world want to distract you with the last 2 hours and the next 24, but history doesn't rise and set on one day. GOLD and SILVER remain in a bull market. Count on that.

World is full of folks who like to kick a feller when he's down, and mercy, they're a-piling on gold and silver. Somebody sent me a quotation from the Great Dennis Gartman (at least, I'm sure he thinks he's great) about how the bull market in gold was over. Even had 20 year charts to prove it.

Ahh, think again. 20 year chart is useless here because it takes in the last half to the last gold bear market and the last half of the stock bull market. In other words, as cycles go it starts at the bottom of a sine wave and runs half way through, instead of showing from bottom to bottom or top to top, a complete cycle.

Gartman and the article quoting him made much of gold's gains against the dollar and stocks, as if that "proved" gold's bull market has ended. Sigh -- yes, stocks have lost 80% against gold, but they will lose another 80% before this ends. Right now about 7.5 oz of gold buys the Dow, down from 44.5 oz at the cycle top in August 1999. But returning to a whole cycle that topped in 1980, we find that the Dow bottomed at one (1) oz) of gold in 1980, 2 oz in 1934, and 1 oz in 1996.

Besides, none of the psychological indicators of a bull market top have appeared, like Gartman and every other guru touting that a "new era" has been reached where gold will remain at permanent high prices. Have y'all seen that in the headlines yet? I haven't.

Anyhow, fact is that while gold and silver are making a big correction, after huge rises that went before (2008 - 2011, $705 - $1,927 and 880c to 4850c), their bull market has not yet ended. Neither in price (now 7.6x vs. 1980's 24x for gold and now 12x vs. 38-2/3x for silver) nor in time (only 10 years so far, vs. 15 - 20 years) have silver and gold fulfilled their bull market promise.

Nor have the causes driving gold and silver up changed, unless central banks have announced "No more inflation" and governments have sworn off deficit spending. I haven't heard that yet.

But what do I know? I'm nothing more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, not one of them smarty writers from New York. Them fellows know everything, like John Corzine and Bernie Madoff.

Stocks dropped 131.46 points (1.10%) for a Dow close at 11,823.48. Once they broke that 11,950 support, only air loomed beneath. S&P 500 dropped 1.13% (13.91 points) to 1,211.82. Next stop is 11,600, etc., downward.

Yesterday the Dow cut through its 200 day moving average (11,942), today it touched its 50 DMA (11,774.54). Momentum clearly points in gravity's direction.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose again today, fueled by deflation fears and "the-world-and-the- euro-are-flying-apart" fears, up 28.2 basis points to 0.36%. This little rise alone accounteth not for the huge drops in stocks and metals, but it doth confirm yesterday's upside breakout. Y'all better get used to a rising dollar, cause it's gonna stretch its legs to 81.50, maybe 83.50, maybe even 88.70. Have I kept this, my expectation, a secret? Have I hidden this from y'all, when all them New York fellers were telling y'all the dollar was going to drop? I don't remember.

Y'all forget about the Euro. Broke 1.3200 support yesterday, and 1.3000 today. Closed down 0.38% to 1.2986. Will drop further and further. Look for 1.2000.

Japanese yen dropped 0.05% today to 128.18c/Y100 (Y78.02/$). Trading at the bottom of its 5 month range, but stubbornly clinging.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Gold Price Closed at $1,727.90, I'm Waiting a Day or Two to Take Advantage of Lower Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1727.90
Change : (2.80) or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 3119.50
Change : 26.00 cents or 0.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.390
Change : -0.556 or -1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01805
Change : 0.000179 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1474.80
Change : 0.00 or 0.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 643.10
Change : -16.80 or -2.5%

S&P 500 : 1,225.73
Change : -10.74 or -0.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $143.02
Change : $ (0.57) or -0.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 6.919
Change : -0.028 or -0.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 383.23
Change : -5.43 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial : 11,954.94
Change : -68.45 or -0.6%

US Dollar Index : 80.27
Change : 0.733 or 0.9%

The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE blew hot and cold out of both sides of their mouths today, and then the Dufuss-effect took hold.

GOLD dropped $4.30 to close Comex at $1,659.90. SILVER rose -- probably on short-covering -- 26c to 3119.5c.

Ahh, but post-Dufusses they broke down. Silver lost 45c to 3074.5c and the GOLD PRICE gave up another $28.40 in the aftermarket to $1,631.50.

Gold has now sliced through its 150 DMA ($1,665) and set its sights on the 200 DMA (now $1,614). Support at $1,600 might catch gold and stop it, but the deflation scare could also drive it further. If it can't hold at $1,600 then $1,535 becomes likely.

I have the same problem y'all do. If I shoot all my cash ammunition here, I won't have anything left to take advantage of lower prices. I feel safer watching it a day or two.

The SILVER PRICE's next support down below lies around 3050c. Low today was 3038.7. Last low (November) was 3065.

Look the worst square in the eye: silver could easily drop to 2615. Below that lies not much to stop its fall before it reaches 2000c.

Yet there is also reason to suspect silver might catch a hand hold at 2900c. We just have to be patient here and let the market tell us what it intends. Right now it's keeping its cards too close to its breast to divine its ultimate intentions.

Then there are those surprise parties to consider. You never know when or what governments will do next. I've been talking to metals dealers about the MF Global debacle, because many of them are hedgers and had accounts with MFG. My guess is they'll be a lot less likely in the future to leave money with any broker. Then, too, if they can't hedge, they must sell what they buy instead of holding it hedged. That can put downward pressure on prices, but more likely it could widen out the spread between buy and sell.

We are seeing come to pass what I have long anticipated. Paper markets are unraveling. Now the very structure of the market itself must be questioned. In the bull market that peaked in 1980, paper (futures) prices drove silver and gold market. This time around, I think it will be more important to have actual physical possession, and that will means the physical price would be driving the market as the "real price", not the futures. We already saw that happen in the 2008 panic, when paper silver prices were 33% or more below physicals prices (physical silver carried a 50% premium over the paper price). Now, if some big entity that claims to have beaucoup silver stored suddenly goes belly up like John Corzine sent MFG belly up, well, who'll want "stored" silver then?

If yesterday saw another Euro-bobble, today saw another Fed-bobble.

The dufusses in charge, who are apparently kept incommunicado in the basement of the Fed Building, announced that things were "jes' fine!" and they didn't need to turn a peg for the economy. Now while I will vehemently defend the proposition that they are correct in not doing a blessed thing, and would be even correcter if they shut down the whole operation forever and went fishing, inaction was NOT what markets wanted to hear.

Is concluding that markets dropped because of the Fed's announcement the post hoc ergo propter hoc logical error? Are y'all kidding me? Markets have been trained to believe that their salvation comes only from the Fed, and if the Fed won't act, then who will save them?

Sure won't be me, any more than it will be the Fed, in point of fact.

But enough of this fun. I can always count on some official lamebrain somewhere in the world to furnish more fodder for my ridicule machine than I can possibly process in a single commentary. Can't help it, they make themselves ridiculous.

Let's look at stocks first. In a word, they're sunk. Sinking below 12,000 today broke the back of more investors' morale. Tomorrow the Dow will break that 11,950, and its 200 day moving average (11,943) and tomorrow or the next day will slam to 11,600, then 11,400, then 11,200, and below that, 10,400. Ohh, it hurts to think about it.

Dow today dropped 68.45 (0.55%) to close at 11,954.94. S&P 500 trotted right along beside it dropping 10.74 (0.87%) to 1,225.73.

The Fed has created an addict. Together with the yankee government, it has created a market that is as addicted to inflation, Quantitative Easing, and all the other nicey-nice names for printing money as a meth-head is to meth. You tell a meth-head you aren't giving him any meth and to put down that two liter soft-drink bottle and stop shaking it, and he won't thank you.

A nation, no, a world of meth-heads. That's what central banks have created.

Y'all don't even want to think about currencies today. Dollar burst through that 79.80 resistance left by the last two tops and jumped 73.3 basis points, a perfervid 0.94%, to 80.267. And that leap took place? Right, about the time the Dufusses opened their mouths.

Dollar's moving higher. Dollar now targets the late 2010 low at 81.44, no stretch at all from here. Above that is 83.50, and then 88.71. At that level the entire universe will be writhing, screaming, and begging for a lower dollar.

Y'all know what this is? Not only financial panic out of Europe, THIS IS THE DEFLATION SCARE. Now the gurus will gurate, the mavens will mavinate, and the pundits will pander, all about how deflation is here and it's the bogeyman who will eat you up!

Looking at the institutions built over the last 80 years with no purpose save to inflate, there's about as much chance of deflation as there is of my winning the Miss America swimsuit competition in my red long johns. But you will hear the media bloviate about it, and at last the Fed and its cronies will ride their printing presses to the rescue.

I'm sorry. They're lamebrains are so active today that I feel like a dung beetle at a bull sale. There's just so much material, I don't know where to start or stop.

The Euro broke down significantly, shattering that 1.3200 support and closed down a jumbo 1.13% at 1.3034. Now in sight is 1.2500. Thanks, Dufusses.

Japanese yen closed down, too, a tee-tiny 0.06% to 128.25c/Y100 (Y77.97/$1).

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, December 12, 2011

Gold Price Dropped Through the 150 Day Moving Average, Will it Drop Farther?

Gold Price Close Today : 1664.20
Change : (48.60) or -2.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 3093.50
Change : 123.80 cents or -3.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.797
Change : 0.559 or 1.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01859
Change : -0.000195 or -1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1486.70
Change : -27.05 or -1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 659.90
Change : -24.05 or -3.5%

S&P 500 : 1,236.47
Change : -18.72 or -1.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $149.32
Change : $ 2.29 or 1.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.224
Change : 0.111 or 1.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 388.60
Change : 9.89 or 2.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,021.39
Change : -162.87 or -1.3%

US Dollar Index : 79.58
Change : 0.948 or 1.2%

The GOLD PRICE dropped clean through its milestone 150 day moving average (now $1,664) when it struck bottom at $1,657.32. Here's a catchy footnote: during the life of this bull market, you could hardly have gone wrong, even for a short time, blindly buying gold at its 150 DMA. Only on one occasion -- 2008 -- did it stay below the 150 DMA for enough time to scare you, and even then it came back.

What about other destinations? The 200 DMA stands at $1,613, and the last low at $1,535.

Everyone who called today asked, "Will it drop farther?" Might as well flip a coin as ask me. That 150 DMA is a place I like to buy gold. I will buy more at the 200 DMA, and I will be looking around to sell grandchildren if it reaches $1,535.

The SILVER PRICE broke 3150c support and fell all the way to 3086c, a little higher than the November low (3069c).

I like to look at the worst possible outcome whenever the roof appears to be caving in. If silver fell the height of the even-sided triangle that it has sketched out, it would fall to about 1750c. Not impossible, but not likely. That flash low at 2615c in late September offers another target, as does 2000c below that.

Before y'all start looking for a rope to lynch me with, let me remind y'all that the SILVER PRICE is VOLATILE, way more volatile than the GOLD PRICE. Always is, and the scary side of that appears when silver corrects. The side you like, the outperform-gold-four-to-one side, comes when silver rallies. You don't get one without the other.

SILVER and GOLD have just fallen out of even sided triangle formations. I would buy gold because it's at the 150 DMA, as I mentioned above. Silver, on the other hand, has fallen below its 300 day moving average. In this bull market, if you had done nothing brighter than merely buying silver whenever it sank below its 300 DMA, you would now be sitting on a pile of cheap silver. Only in 2008 did silver stay below its 300 DMA for long, and then only for about 8 months.

Yes, most everybody who now owns silver or gold is puking in his wastebasket today, with visions of having to buy a hurdy-gurdy and monkey to make a living, but wait. Exactly when they are all sticking their heads in the wastebasket is the time we want to be buying.

Or do y'all think that over the weekend Ben the Bernancubus and all the other central bank heads suddenly got religion and decided they weren't going to gut the public anymore? They are caught in their own trap. Either they inflate, or they die.

Y'all know as well as I do which they'll keep on choosing.

Another Euro-bobble, as the eurocrats failed again to enact any substantial solution to their bank solvency crisis. They are, however, tightening the power stranglehold on member countries and centralizing power like a drunk ordering highballs at a free bar.

The outcome was a spectacular dollar rally. US dollar burst through 79 and is now trading at 79.58, up 1.22% or 94.8 basis points.

The dollar's opposite numbers, of course, tumbled. Euro gapped down and fell to the October low (131.64). Ended at 1.3182. If the euro cannot check its fall here, it will tumble to 1.2500 to 1.2000. Yen fared somewhat better, but also gapped down. Remains in the 4-1/2 month range. Closed 128.33c/Y100 (Y77.92/$1), down 0.4%. Euro's greatest enemy now is gravity.

Back away from the US dollar chart and look. It has now nearly reached the 79.84 early October high, and the 79.70 November high. This makes the dollar's THIRD time to knock at that 79.80 door, so the outcome won't be indifferent. Either it will slice through that 79.80 resistance like the Golden Horde of Mongols slicing through Eurasia, or it will fail and fall like your reading glasses out of your shirt pocket when you leaned over the rail to look down off the Empire State Building.

I'm laying my bet on the dollar rising, because the Eurocrats' stubborn clinging to their unblemished fecklessness may be, at last, spooking the market into a REAL panic, just like 2008. When that happens, everybody will drop everything and run to the dollar for salvation.

Boy. Will they ever get THAT wrong.

I see reports that European commercial and central banks may be selling gold to raise dollars. May be, I have no way of checking that and they aren't about to tell me. But in a panic folks always rush into whatever the majority perceive as the safest instrument. Right now that's the dollar, so you have to expect silver and gold to suffer in a panicked dollar rally.

Could be worse -- they could be stocks. Stocks have rolled over on their belly again, and are about to roll off the wall. Dow today barely held on at 12,000, closing down 1.34% (162.87) at 12,021.39. S&P500 lost 1.64% (18.72) to 1,236.47.

Here's a guess. The Dow's decline began off the May top, fell to 11,950, rallied back to 12,700, then fell to 10,400 in October. That last was the big tough leg (so far), and all the drama since October has been nothing more than a correction of that fall. Correction ended at 12,200, where it failed. Now stocks have in front of them a "journey", as the pompous like to intone. Their journey will carry them below that October low at 10,400, and on down into the bowels of the earth.

How could any enterprise prosper in the government-caused regulatory and financial anarchy that terrorizes markets today?

That brings us to silver and gold, whose plugs were yanked today. Gold fell $48.60 (2.8%) to 1,664.20 on Comex. Silver fell 3.8% (123.8c) to 3093.5c.

I'm not trying to cover myself, but remember I did warn y'all that metals could break up OR down out of their even-sided chart formations. Down it was.


Y'all will find this hard to believe coming from a Tennessean, but 3 years ago my son and I went to New Hampshire, shopping for a Scotch Highland bull. We found Bill and Kathy Baker, who for over 30 years had been line breeding and ruthlessly culling for perfect animals. When I saw their cattle, they literally took my breath away.

More than that, down the road Kathy has a shop where she makes wreaths. No, no, not those cheesy plastic things, but REAL wreaths out of dried flowers or fresh balsam. Everything they use is locally grown or gathered, they never use any additives or chemicals, and Kathy and her crew make the most exquisite Christmas wreaths you have ever seen, and ship them all over the US. They are all made to order. I think Kathy sells out every year, but she probably still has time to make a few more wreaths. You'll find them at www.cubemtn.com.

On 12 December 1946 a United Nations committee voted to accept a six-bloc tract in Manhattan to be the site of UN headquarters. The land was a gift from John D Rockefeller, Jr. That was sure-enough disinterested and public spirited, wasn't it?

On 12 December 1862 came the Battle of Fredericksburg, Virginia where Union General Ambrose Burnside smashed regiment after regiment against entrenched Confederates behind stone walls atop Marye's heights. Burnside took 12,653 casualties to Lee's 5,377, and shortly had to look for a new job. The battle lasted from 11 December to 15 December, and was probably the most lopsided engagement of the war. The battle was a tragic monument to what one dedicated man can do with stupidity AND professional military training.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2011, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.