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Thursday, June 28, 2012

The Gold Price and Silver Price Down but Primary Trend is Still Upwards

Gold Price Close Today : 1549.70
Change : -27.90 or -1.77%

Silver Price Close Today : 2624.70
Change : -69.5 or -2.58%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 59.043
Change : 0.488 or 0.83%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01694
Change : -0.000141 or -0.83%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1386.40
Change : -23.40 or -1.66%

Palladium Price Close Today : 562.40
Change : -15.35 or -2.66%

S&P 500 : 132,904.00
Change : -2.81 or 0.00%

Dow In GOLD$ : $168.10
Change : $ 2.67 or 1.61%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.132
Change : 0.129 or 1.61%

Dow in SILVER oz : 480.14
Change : 11.47 or 2.45%

Dow Industrial : 12,602.26
Change : -24.75 or -0.20%

US Dollar Index : 82.72
Change : 0.169 or 0.20%

Today the
GOLD PRICE closed beneath my $1,558 boundary, which argues it will drop at least to $1,532, the last low, or $1,526, or if that doesn't hold, $1,475. I'll talk about arguments on the other side in a moment.

The GOLD PRICE lost $27.90 to close Comex at $1,549.70. Gold began dropping about 9:00 a.m. at $1,565 and steadily and steadily lost ground until 11:00. Couldn't mount any sort of rally, through, and by 1:00 had hit a low at $1,547.

How much breaking a support line is enough? Well, enough. Gold's fall today was probably enough to carry it lower, but I'm getting my back up just a little. I don't expect much downward follow-through or a new, post-Dec-2011 low because this gold correction has lasted 44 weeks already. Last one (2008 - 2009) needed 46-1/2 weeks to correct from break to low to exceeding the last peak. That argues that the present drop won't carry very far or last very long, but I wouldn't swing over hell using that for a rope.

The SILVER PRICE lost 9.5 cents to end Comex at 2624.7c.

SILVER closed below the 2641 line in the sand I've been drawing, so I have to expect lower prices. Today's low was 2612, which matches the Feb., September, and December 2011 lows. More times a market knocks on a door, more likely that door is to open, so there's a good chance that 2615 support will give way and send silver skidding to 2250c. On the same side is the higher GOLD/SILVER RATIO today at 59.043.

On the opposite hand stands the strong and rising premium on US 90% silver coin, and the usually reliable relation of silver's price to its 300 day moving average. Only time in the last 11 years it has been lower was at the dark pit of fall 2008. And silver has been correcting now for 60 weeks. In 2008-2010 it took silver 97 weeks to exceed the previous peak, but it had bottomed long, long before that.

Long and short is that the bias for gold and silver now, as opposed to their wild peaks many months ago, is upward, not down. This bounding along bottoms can grind on a long and vexing time, but September will come at last. Bull market is intact. Be calm and watch.

Night before last I heard this headline on the radio, "Barclay's bank rigged interest rates," and I laughed out loud. EVERY central bank does this EVERY day. But since I'm only a natural born fool from Tennessee, I can't understand why, when the central bank rigs interest rates, are they a public benefactor, but when private banks do, they're crooks? I reckon you have to be a banker to understand the difference.

And here's the best laugh of all: UK Telegraph reported that Lord Oakeshott, some politician, said, "If [Barclay CEO] Bob Diamond had a scintilla of shame, he would resign." How true! He has besmirched the good name of the whole brothel!

Mourn, Beloved, mourn for your freedom and your country! The supreme court's decision today that the US congress can FORCE you to enter a contract of insurance deprives you of whatever freedom you might have had left. If insurance, why not anything else they decide you "need"? That they did it under the lying cover of a "tax" aggravates the tyranny, it doesn't excuse it. Mourn, Beloved, mourn!

One thing about it: the Supreme Court's rotten decision makes secession look even better today than it did yesterday, and it looked plumb perfect yesterday.

Whatever else you can say about the supremes' decision, the stock market didn't cotton to it. Dow lost 24.75 (0.2%) to 12,602.26, but looked much worse than that at lower prices all day until "a Friend" (a.k.a. Nice Government Men) rushed in to buy it higher. S&P lost 0.21% (2.81) to 1,329.04. Stocks will drop 800 points from here before July ends.

With the customary irrationality we have grown to expect from central-bank-run markets, the US dollar index today gained 16.9 basis points (0.22%) to 82.718, although today's supreme's decision guarantees that the yankee government must spend billions and trillions more, which they can only do by borrowing it, which can only be accommodated by the Fed printing money.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.