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Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The Gold Price Gained $6.80 Pushing Through $1,740 Resistance

Gold Price Close Today : 1737.80
Change : 6.80 or 0.39%

Silver Price Close Today : 3323.30
Change : 36.20 cents or -1.08%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.291
Change : 0.766 or 1.49%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01912
Change : -0.000284 or -1.47%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1581.80
Change : -40.00 or -2.47%

Palladium Price Close Today : 685.35
Change : -3.15 or -0.46%

S&P 500 : 1,312.39
Change : -0.62 or -0.05%

Dow In GOLD$ : $150.27
Change : $ (0.83) or -0.55%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.269
Change : -0.040 or -0.55%

Dow in SILVER oz : 380.12
Change : 3.47 or 0.92%

Dow Industrial : 12,632.68
Change : -21.04 or -0.17%

US Dollar Index : 79.81
Change : 0.023 or 0.03%

Y'all have observed with me, over the last year or so, that a day when silver drops a little and the GOLD PRICE rises a little, is often followed by a day when both shoot up. Today the SILVER PRICE dropped 26.4c to 3323.3c, after making a slightly higher high at 3407c. Now, that might be might form the first half of a key reversal down (new intraday high and lower close, followed by lower close next day), but it might not. Silver still held up at 3300c, and never sank lower than 3292.

Cut silver some slack! It's butting its head against a big downtrend line from the August high, and it's still above its uptrend line from the 29 December low. We're warned, it MIGHT drop, but if it works its way through 3400c resistance, y'all can kiss silver good-bye because it will shoot skyward. But silver must hold 3292c.

While silver was dropping 26.4c, the GOLD PRICE gained $6.80 to $1,737.80, chugging on up a mighty steep mountain. More, gold pushed through $1,740 resistance to $1,747.32 (knocking hard on $1,750) and easily caught a downspike to $1,725.90, proving that support.

Like the SILVER PRICE, should the GOLD PRICE punch through $1,750, all the shorts will flee in panic, clutching their wallets. On the other hand, today also told you that gold cannot afford weakness at $1,725.

In bull markets these rallies always climb a wall of worry. People keep asking me if they should buy here, or buy half here and wait to see if metals will drop. First place, I don't know any more than you do. I'm handsome and tall, but I ain't Nostradamus. Second place, as a practical matter I've watched my customers (learned almost as much from them as I have from my children) and those who do best are those who just buy when they have the money, and come back and keep on buying. They don't get too worked up or nervous about where the market is, because they are riding the primary trend for the long term. And that works right well.

At least, they're not like me, stuck here sweating that GOLD/SILVER RATIO. One tiny straw in the wind that suggests metals might not have a great day tomorrow is the nearly 1.5% rise in the gold/silver ratio today. Still waiting for 57.5.

Musing back over the yen's performance yesterday, and recalling the current buzz among Those Who Must Talk Whether Mentating Or Not, Asian stocks also rose yesterday, "on Greek Debt Deal Talks" and Japanese industrial production grew faster than economists estimated. A statement so obtuse, so wanting in causal connection, stinks of the same Bimbo Financial Journalism that moved that Canadian TV commentatoress to say gold wasn't a good investment "because it wasn't backed by anything like the US dollar is."

Point is, tons of hot money slosheth around the world looking for a likely place to light, hungry for return, and stupidly harkening to the latest news and commentary, groundless though they be. Investment du jour (IdJ) today is US stocks, because there may be a Greek debt deal and Bernanke's indigestion is improving. Tomorrow the IdJ will be European stocks, because there may be a Greek debt deal and Ferkel and Sarcophagus are no longer miffed at each other. Besides, the planets are lining up and Pisces is ascendant in the Fishbowl. And the Japanese are switching to rice from wheat.

I'll be glad when the adults come back and take charge again.

Okay, I can't dodge it; let's look at today's markets.

Now I've heard of heads and shoulders, upside down and right side up, triangles, boxes, wedges, spikes, and double and triple tops, but I don't recall seeing many Big Ws before. Be that as it may, there 'tis on the US Dollar Index chart, a Big W. Breaks down and begins at 79.50, drops to 78.75, rises to 79.45, drops yet again to 78.75, then today rises to 79.50. Man, that's either a PERFECT double bottom, or it's the Nice Government Men painting the tape. What do y'all reckon?

Mattereth not. Implication is that a dollar close above 79.50 turns the dollar higher, a close below 78.75 pulls the plug.

Dollar index today rose 11.8 magnificent basis points (0.15%, for those of y'all with magnifying glasses) to 79.285. Could it turn and resume its rally from here? Might, but I think the NGM in Japan, Europe, and the US have the dollar on the run, and want to keep it there. After all, a Greek Debt Deal may be near.

Disappointing its partisans, the euro today was chipped and clipped for 0.46%, closing down at 1.3080. It's bouncing off its 62 day moving average, a significant moving average for the euro. Also backed through through the 50 DMA today (131.06). Nothing here suggests the euro is NOT headed higher.

As the mysterious schools of investment herring switch from east to west, the Yen rose again today by 0.17% to 131.19c/Y100 (Y76.22/US$1). I am so suspicious it's scary. Scares even me. I keep looking at the dollar selling at about 130 eurocents and about 130 yen, and I keep thinking, "Now isn't that just like Nice Government Men! They pick some silly target number that makes it obvious to a blind man what they're doing, forgetting that nature doesn't round." This looks like a target range ginned up in a meeting over rubber chicken in Basel at the BIS.

The smell of the sickroom hovereth yet over stocks. A few indices rose today, but the S&P500 and the Dow were not among them. Dow lost 21.04 points (0.17%) to settle at 12,632.68. S&P500 perched at 1,312.39, down 0.62 point or 0.05%.

Folks, y'all lay a ruler across the tops of Thursday, Friday, and on through today. I'll show you a failed breakout attempt today, but nothing else to fertilize respect or optimism. I'll give it this: if the Dow can better 12,700, and the S&P can better 1,320, stocks MIGHT have a chance to creep or crawl higher.

Creep or call, not found new inter-generational wealth transfers. But mostly, stocks want to drop.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, January 30, 2012

If the Gold Price Violates Today's Low it Might Fall to $1,680 on the Other Hand it Could Rise to $1,805

Gold Price Close Today : 1731.00
Change : (1.20) or -0.07%

Silver Price Close Today : 3349.70
Change : 26.20 cents or -0.78%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.676
Change : 0.366 or 0.71%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01935
Change : -0.000138 or -0.71%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1610.70
Change : -11.10 or -0.68%

Palladium Price Close Today : 686.75
Change : -1.75 or -0.25%

S&P 500 : 1,313.01
Change : -3.32 or -0.25%

Dow In GOLD$ : $151.11
Change : $ 0.04 or 0.03%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.310
Change : 0.002 or 0.03%

Dow in SILVER oz : 377.76
Change : 2.73 or 0.73%

Dow Industrial : 12,653.72
Change : -6.74 or -0.05%

US Dollar Index : 79.11
Change : 0.131 or 0.17%

Not surprising the socks off anybody but the unshod, the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE both backed away from big resistance today. Gold lost $1.20 to end at $1,731.00 on Comex while silver gave back 26.2c to settle at 3349.7c.

For three days the GOLD PRICE has moved sideways across the chart bounded by roughly $1,715 and $1,740. Friday marked the high, so this line is rounding over downward. Today's low came at $1,716.26. If gold violates that low tomorrow, then it might unravel all the way to $1,680. On the other hand, once it breaks through $1,740, next stop will be $1,805. Might as well steel yourselves for it, a correction will come some time, and fairly soon given the strong rise. Won't be the end of the world, or even the end of the larger rally.

SILVER PRICE three day range has carried it from 3300c all the way to 3400c. The silver chart shows (as does the gold chart) what might with equal justification be called a continuation pattern or a topping pattern. All we can do is watch the boundaries of the range -- 3400c to 3300c and see what happens.

Once again today I have been examining the GOLD/SILVER RATIO chart, and again I have to confess that I expect it to make one final push above 57.5. If I'm wrong, y'all can string me up. If you can catch me.

Scariest thing about writing a daily commentary is that buzzard that sits on your shoulder squawking, "What happens when you run out of things to say? Or on the day nothing happens?"

One of the advantages of being a natural born fool is that you never have enough sense to admit that you have nothing to say worth hearing, so that solves the first. But today was one of those days when not much happened. Oh, everybody showed up for work and went through the motions, but nothing much changed.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rallied a mite, up 13.1 basis points (0.17%) to 79.107. This changes nothing, however. Five day chart might have bottomed late Friday, but dollar will have to burst through 79.50 to prove that. 50 day moving average stands above the Dollar Index at 79.67, and other indicators point unanimously down. Not nearly enough enthusiasm to move much higher.

Greek debt talks are foundering -- come to think of it, they've been foundering since they began -- and the euro, having hit 132.34 Friday and its 62 DMA, backed off today to 1.3130, losing 0.68%. This doesn't near about turn the trend down. Look for higher euro still.

Something's going on with the yen, but I don't know what. It's the sorriest of the three big fiat currencies, worst debt, etc., but it's rising. Monday of last week it gapped down horribly in a move that screamed, Government Manipulation. Stayed down one day, traded back up through the 50 DMA, then Friday gapped UP above the 20 DMA and through internal resistance about 130.5c. This points to another trip back to the top of the trading range above 132c.

Against both the euro and the yen gold is breaking out toward the sky. Not quite confirmed yet in the euro, but clearly in an uptrend.

Against the other Loser Fiat Currencies, silver also offers a bright outlook. Silver in Euros has broken out of a down trend and traded up to its 200 DMA, standing above its 20 and 50 DMAs. The 20 has just crossed above the 50. Once silver crosses through 26 euros, it will be bye-bye earth. Silver in yen shows a similar set-up, but not quite as fully unfolded.

STOCKS had another sickly day. Dow only fell about 0.5% to 12,653.72, down 6.75 points, far less than the andSP500 that lost 3.32 points or 0.25%. Other indices lost more than the Dow, too, sending the smell of ripe mackerel into the air. A drop through 12,530 will push the Dow's head underwater. RSI and MACD are ripe to drop.

STOCKS -- they may be YOUR chance to buy a ticket on the Titanic this year.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, January 27, 2012

The Gold Price Correction has Ended, Gold can hit $2,600 this Year

Gold Price Close Today : 1,732.20
Gold Price Close 20-Jan : 1,663.70
Change : 68.50 or 4.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 3374.7
Silver Price Close 20-Jan : 3164.7
Change : 210.00 or 6.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.329
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Jan : 52.571
Change : -1.24 or -2.4%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01948
Silver Gold Ratio 20-Jan : 0.01902
Change : 0.00046 or 2.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 151.32
Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Jan : $ 158.05
Change : $ (6.73) or -4.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.320
Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Jan : 7.646
Change : -0.33 or -4.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 375.74
Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Jan : 401.95
Change : -26.21 or -6.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,680.14
Dow Industrial 20-Jan : 12,720.48
Change : -40.34 or -0.3%

S&P 500 : 1,318.01
S&P 500 20-Jan : 1,315.38
Change : 2.63 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index : 78.883
US Dollar Index 20-Jan : 80.155
Change : -1.272 or -1.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,621.80
Platinum Price Close 20-Jan : 1,530.50
Change : 91.30 or 6.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 688.50
Palladium Price Close 20-Jan : 673.85
Change : 14.65 or 2.2%

Today the GOLD PRICE rose $5.50 to $1,732.20 and silver rose 4.5c to 3374.7c.

The SILVER PRICE gained 6.6% this week, gold gained 4.1%. Meanwhile, they also bludgeoned their way through two or three resistance levels. This is about as good a week's performance as I have ever seen.

On Wednesday, thanks to the Bernancubus Fed's announcement they will continue jimmying interest rates down and inflating until 2014, gold shot from $1,670 to $1,705 in a single bound, smashing down $1,680 resistance. Next day it pierced $1,705 AND $1,725.

That carries GOLD PRICE through the downtrend line from September a full three percent and three days, proof enough it is a solid breakout. And for good measure gold also rose above its 150 DMA ($1,686), the rarely broken safety net under gold's bull market.

This week SILVER beat 3260c, then 3300c and 3350c and now stands knocking at the 3400c door, where it meets stout resistance. Most important goal here is for silver to climb above its 300 DMA. During this bull market silver has only rarely broken below this moving average. Whenever it crosses above it again, silver is offering you an extremely low-risk buying point.

Some time or other a correction will come. One target is the 200 DMA at 3575c, about where some lateral resistance also abides. Should silver pierce that mark, nothing stands in its way before 4000c.

RSI on both metals stands at 70, pushing the ceiling for overbought, but overbought can easily get MORE overbought and stay there longer than expected.

Big Picture has come into focus. The SILVER and GOLD PRICE correction has ended, but may correct and bump along sideways for the first quarter or two. Nonetheless, both are headed much, much higher. Gold can hit $2,660 this year, silver might hit 7600c, even 8300c.

Is the bull market over? Merciful heavens, NO! The wild part of the ride is only now beginning.

At the end of the football game, what do y'all do? You look at the scoreboard, right? Because even though the game may be fun at the end all that counts is that scoreboard. This week's board says that stocks are spinning wheels, US dollar is backing down the hill with transmission problems, and silver and gold are blasting ahead down the road.

Most notable this week was NOT the metals huge gains, although that was notable enough, but stocks' fall against the metals. On 29 December the Dow in Gold Dollars hit G$164.94 (7.969 oz). Today it's at G$151.32 (7.320 oz), down almost 9% although stocks have risen 3.2% (Dow) and 4.4% (S&P500).

Since 29 December the Dow in Silver Ounces has plunged from 450.5 oz. to 375.74 oz today, falling 16.6%. Instructive.

That 29 December high took both indices to new highs for the move, and for silver, above the long term downtrend line. The outcome until today shows that the tide in stocks versus metals has turned down again, and stocks have begun to lose another 80% of their present value against stocks.

Dow closed today at 12,680.14, down 54.49 (-0.43%) and the S&P500 at 1,318.01, lower by 0.42 (0.3%). This week has shown stocks unable to sustain the enthusiasm of the year's opening. Unless the Dow exceeds 12,850 and the S&P500 1,360, which I do not expect, their next leg will be down -- very much down. Acceleration begins when the Dow drops through 12,600.

The US Dollar did NOT have a good week. It broke support about 80, then 79.5, and today hit itself in the head with a ball peen hammer by dropping another 51.2 basis points (0.66%) to 78.883. Dollar now is trading below its 50 day moving average (79.64) and may be headed for its 200 DMA (76.49).

The euro has profited from the dollar's slide, gaining 0.93% today alone to reach my minimum target of 1.3200. Closed at 1.3237, will rise further next week.

Yen offers a classic snapshot of government manipulation. Gapped down on Tuesday, traded down to support, then gapped UP today. Closed today at 130.35c/Y100 (Y76.72/US$1), up 0.91%. So, let's see -- yen crashed on Tuesday, falling through its 20 DMA and 50 DMA, but today turned right around and shot back up, closing higher than it began the week? If that ain't Nice Government Men in action, canaries have fangs.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, January 26, 2012

The Gold Price Broke out Above it's Downtrend and Traded Above the 200, 150, 50, and 20 Day Moving Averages

Gold Price Close Today : 1726.70
Change : 26.60 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 3370.20
Change : 61.0 cents or 1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.234
Change : -0.141 or -0.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01952
Change : 0.000053 or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1609.00
Change : 31.50 or 2.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 690.45
Change : -2.55 or -0.4%

S&P 500 : 1,318.45
Change : -7.60 or -0.6%

Dow In GOLD$ : $152.47
Change : $ (2.63) or -1.7%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.376
Change : -0.127 or -1.7%

Dow in SILVER oz : 377.88
Change : -7.62 or -2.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,735.31
Change : -21.65 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 79.40
Change : -0.177 or -0.2%

Silver and GOLD PRICE added more credibility to their résumé today, pushing higher after upside upside breakouts. GOLD gained $26.60 (1.8%) to $1,726.70 while silver added 61c (1.8%) to close Comex at 3370.2, within easy spitting distance of our 3400c target.

The GOLD PRICE pushed aside the $1,705 resistance like King Kong pushing down New York City streetlights, and sprang clean to next resistance around $1,725.

What more can you ask? Gold has (1) broken out above its downtrend line from September, and (2) traded above the 200, 50, 20, and now 150 day moving averages. Momentum hardly gets more unanimous than that.

Road for gold stretches out to $1,800. Someday will come a correction, not too long looking at the RSI, but not before gold makes more gains.

The SILVER PRICE traded overnight barely below 3300c, at 3297.5c, then climbed like a stubborn Sherpa all day to a 3377.5c high. Comex close at 3370c came very close to the day's high.

Here are the bounds: the SILVER PRICE must not close below 3300c, and must exceed 3400c to keep on rallying. With the world's largest central bank announcing that it will most surely keep on depreciating the dollar, what else would you expect silver to do? If you don't buy the silver breakout at 3400c, you'll never buy anything. It screams too loudly that it intends to move higher.

All that said, remember humility and recall that markets turn on a dime. Closes below 3300c or $1,700 gainsays everything above.

German chancellor Ferkel spoke at the Davos economic forum yesterday, coinciding with the FOMC's actions here. Coincidence? Or timed to manipulate fall of the dollar against the euro? No matter, she said nothing new. Crisis continues to be the elephant in the living room.

An Israeli website reported yesterday that India has agreed to pay for Iranian oil with gold. Not sure whether this can be believed, but if it's true it is a flashing harbinger of change.

Markets followed through today as expected from yesterday: gold and silver up, dollar down, stocks down. Maybe inflation isn't the universal economic panacea after all -- but what do I know? I'm no central banker, I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, not rating even 3 MLCs on the Scientific Stupidity Scale.

STOCKS melted when they approached the Kryptonite of last spring's highs. Dow gave up 21.65 (0.17%) to close 12,735.31 while S&P500 lost 7.60 (0.57%) to close 1,318.45. Dow below 12,650 will accelerate the fall.

More instructive is the last few days' behavior of the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) and the DiSoz. From G$164.94 (7.969 oz) on 29 Dec. the DiG$ has fallen to G$152.47 (7.376 oz) today. From 450.5 oz the DiSoz has plunged to 377.88 oz today. Since the December highs showed upside breakouts on the chart, their retreat and failure now underlines one future: silver and gold will gain much more value against stocks, or, stocks will lose more value against metals. Same thing.

US DOLLAR INDEX today fell 17.7 basis points (0.23%) to 79.402. This further fall below 79.50 merely confirms that the dollar has broken down from its uptrend. Low came at 79.07, and dollar may be forming a rounding bottom there, which would send it higher for a few days. Owch, it's below its 50 DMA (79.59). Lower closes will simply nail more nails into the dollar's coffin.

Euro took a breather today, closing down 0.02% (nothing, basically) to 1.3104. Must remain above 1.3050 or foster suspicions that the ultimate bottom for the euro's long move is not yet behind us.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, January 25, 2012

The Gold Price Shot up to $1,712.85 in One Hour, Next Big Resistance is $1,805

Gold Price Close Today : 1699.80
Change : 35.60 or 2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 3309.20
Change : 116.10 cents or 3.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.366
Change : -0.753 or -1.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01947
Change : 0.000281 or 1.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1577.50
Change : 30.60 or 2.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 693.00
Change : 15.20 or 2.2%

S&P 500 : 1,326.06
Change : 11.41 or 0.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $155.16
Change : $ (2.27) or -1.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.506
Change : -0.110 or -1.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 385.56
Change : -11.42 or -2.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,758.85
Change : 83.10 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index : 79.43
Change : -0.442 or -0.6%

The GOLD PRICE was fiddling around all day, pitty-patting at $1,660, falling as low at $1,650, and then gold's best friend Ben Bernancubus and His Clowns made their announcement, and the GOLD PRICE shot up to $1,712.85 in about one hour. The SILVER PRICE languished indecisively, lolling around at 3153c then climbing back to 3220c when Ben appeared. In about one hour silver had gained 3.6% for the day, shooting to 3340c and backing off to only a 116.1c rise to 3309.2 at Comex close.

Ben has taken SILVER and GOLD nearly to the next level. Now we've reached that $1,705 resistance I have been looking for, and gold surmounted today its 150 DMA ($1,683.03). IF -- if -- gold punches through $1,705, the next big resistance comes in $100 higher at at $1,805.

I emphasize "if" because today's news was as good as it gets for gold. This might have been the final surge of the move off of $1,524 in December, and it could correct from here for a week or two. I'm not a fortune-teller -- tomorrow will tell us whether gold will continue rallying or not.

Above silver the only barrier left is 3400c -- well, 3570c, but 3400c offers stronger resistance. After that, silver has an easy climb 4000c cents where it fell off the cliff in September.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO left a gap down two days ago. Generally, markets trade back up to fill gaps. Be patient, don't let the enthusiasm of a rising market fool you, or the fear of a falling market.

I was minding my own business sitting in front of my computer concentrating when all of a sudden my Stupid Meter went off, alarm blaring and honking, Stupid needle pushed way over into the red. Clearly somebody in the world was pushing the safety envelope for Stupid Radiation. Problem is, if the hole in the ozone layer closes up, then the Stupid Rays cannot escape the earth's atmosphere, and every man, woman, and child on earth -- especially those registered to vote -- loses 8 points off their IQ for every day the Stupid Meter reading exceeds 4.8 Central Bankers (standard scientific measurement for stupidity. One Central Banker, abbreviated "CB" = 10 "ERs" or "Elected Representatives" = 100 SCJs or "Supreme Court Justices." One SCJ = 100 MLCs or "Moe-Larry- and-Curlys." One the other hand, in order of ascending stupidity, Ten CBs = 1 SE or "Secretary of Education," and 10 SEs = 1 TSAA or "Transportation Security Administration Agent.")

My heart had no more settled down from the scare that Stupid Meter alarm had given me than my Hogwash Detector went crazy. I jumped up and ran outside, because an alarm that strong meant a TIDAL WAVE of hogwash must be about to engulf my house and Tennessee. About that time I realized that everything was all right. Last night we had a State of the Union speech last night and today an FOMC meeting announcement and whenever you overload a Stupid Meter and a Hogwash Detector like that, you have to expect a lot of alarms.

Bernancubus and the FOMC announced today that they would keep interest rates low until "at least late 2014" and that the committee "expects to maintain a highly accommodative [read: inflationary] stance for monetary policy." But that's okay because they expect "inflation" to be subdued. To prove beyond all quibble that they have all lost their minds, the FOMC specified a two percent (2%) goal for long term inflation, measured by some price index that makes about as much sense as averaging the price of tire-irons with kumquats and SUVs and calling that an index.

Go look at the five-day charts you will notice that suddenly today the silver and gold charts rise straight into the sky. THAT was when the Federal Open Market Committee made its announcement, and THAT shows you how markets interpreted the Fed's announcement: "more and more inflation."

Of course, the US dollar index took this news of more inflation on the chin, sinking below 79.60 support to 79.426, down 44.2 basis points or 0.57%. That wrecks the rally, but stopped just below the 50 day moving average (79.56). I suppose it is POSSIBLE the dollar might turn and resume rallying, but clearly the Fed is working with the other Nice Government Men and Beneficent Central Bankers to lower the dollar and yen against the euro.

And the scabby euro took a great jump to close at 1.3108, up 0.56% and almost touching its 50DMA at 1.3142. Since it already stands above its 20 DMA (1.2891), piercing the 50 DMA will twist up the frenzy knob on the euro's momentum.

The Japanese yen presents a fine picture of government manipulation. It fell through internal support today and at one point through the trading channel reaching back to August. Closed up in that channel, but Oh, My! Somebody BIG is selling yen. Closed 128.66c/Y100 (Y77.72/US$1).

Stock investors are about to set off my Lunacy Monitor, as they bought today on news that the dollar will be trashed and the Fed will inflate more. Can that possibly aid the ailing economy? In a pig's eye it can. The economy is ailing only because of inflation in the first place (Don't argue with me here. There would have been no speculative real estate bubble and stock bubble and soap bubble unless the Fed had been inflating and making money artificially cheap, exactly as they are doing now.) More inflation will help the US economy as much as another drink will sober up a drunk.

Dow rose 83.1 points (0.66%) to 12,758.85. S&P500 rose 0.87% (11.41) to 1,326.06. This charade, this farce, this "inflate-poke-and-hope" management ought to bring tears to any sane eye.

But, it's an ill wind that blows no good, and the ill winds of Central Bank and Government Stupidity, Keynesianism, and Official Hogwash all blew mightily into the sails of silver and gold today.

Just to show you things haven't changed much, except that 120 years ago men had more courage, on 25 January 1787 the militia of what was called "Shay's Rebellion" was met and dispersed by superior Massachusetts state forces at the Springfield (U.S.) Armory. Shay's Rebellion was an uprising of debt-ridden, taxed-out farmers who had fought a Revolution for liberty only to find that at home they were being made debt slaves.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, January 24, 2012

The Gold Price Gave Back $13.80 Today This is no More That a Correction Within an Uptrend

Gold Price Close Today : 1664.20
Change : (13.80) or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 3193.10
Change : 30.2 cents or -0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.119
Change : 0.060 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01919
Change : -0.000022 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1546.90
Change : -16.80 or -1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 677.80
Change : -8.25 or -1.2%

S&P 500 : 1,314.65
Change : -1.35 or -0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $157.45
Change : $ 0.90 or 0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.617
Change : 0.044 or 0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 396.97
Change : 2.69 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial : 12,675.75
Change : -33.07 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index : 79.81
Change : 0.023 or 0.0%

The GOLD PRICE bounced off that barrier at $1,680 yesterday and gave back $13.80 today, closing at $1,664.20. The GOLD PRICE can drop back to $1,658 - $1,656 and remain in an uptrend. So far, today's action classifies as no more than a correction within an uptrend.

The SILVER PRICE backed off 30.2c to close Comex at 3193.1c. Silver dipped its toe below 3200c to 3184c, but held there rock solid. And so it must do tomorrow to avoid a painful correction, down to 3080c, a dollar lower.

You always have to take care that you are not "talking your position," looking at a chart and seeing only what you want to see and ignoring the rest. Still, I believe that pattern on silver's chart is a continuation pattern, very tight, and will break out upside.

So (as my friend R. asked me today) why not talk about the GOLD/SILVER RATIO? Because I am still holding out for 57.5 to swap, and believe we will yet see that. Silver and gold have most likely made their bottoms, but first time silver makes a correction, it will suffer much more than gold will, and that (I hope) will give us that push.

Think about something else. I am still smarting by swapping out of SILVER into GOLD too early last year. I don't want to jump too early on the swap back, and I know from previous years that the ratio can post several similar highs before it turns down for good.

Right, that's risky, but for right now I believe it's a risk worth taking.

US dollar today gained a massive, spectacular 2.3 basis points (0.03%) to end at 79.806. It skidded to a stop just above the 50 DMA (79.52).

High today reached 80.184, low skidded to 79.643. Without closing higher than 80.20, the dollar is merely trolling for fools gullible enough to buy it on the way down.

Of course, if the buck hangs around above 79.50 for a few days, I might change my mind.

Scabby euro rose 0.09% today to 1.3036, not much changed from yesterday, but still rallying. Still headed for 1.3200 at least.

Yen, on the other hand, fell off a cliff today. Dropped 0.9% to 128.71c/Y100 (Y77.69/US$1), leaving behind a huge gap and punching through its 20 DMA (129.65) and 50 DMA (129.19). Support there is none before 128c, or the 200 DMA at 127.37c. Looks like the Nice Government Men in Japan woke up today and decided to lower the yen.

Stock indices shrugged off their confusion today and all decided to drop together. Dow lost 33.07 (0.26%) to 12,675.75. S&P500 gave back 1.35 to 0.1%. Charts aren't quite the same.

S&P500 has bumped into overhead resistance from last spring's highs and stopped cold. Dow punched through slightly, reached 12,764, and has traded back to the line for -- a failure and fall back, or a final kiss good-bye? Not clear yet, but stocks don't have much gas left. Dow won't reach 12,870, S&P500 shouldn't reach 1,360.

On 24 January 1848 James W. Marshall discovered a gold nugget at Sutter's Mill in northern California, the discovery that set off the Gold Rush. Discoveries of gold in California, Australia, and later South Africa led to a CHEAPENING of gold against silver, and the price of silver in gold rose steadily from 1848 until 1873, when silver was corruptly demonetized first in the US ("Crime of '73") and then in the new German Reich. Contrary to the propaganda, it was NOT new silver discoveries, like the Comstock Lode, that led to silver's cheapening against gold or its demonetization. That was all politics, and silver was gaining value from 1848 forward, never trading below the $1.2929 statutory value from 1848 to 1873, and rising at some points to $1.35 (4.4% over statutory price). No, ultimately driving silver out of the monetary system was a project of special interests who planned to drive out first, silver, and then gold, and so create their own money out of thin air. So far, they've won, and think what a tragedy it would have been if the banks had lost. Why, how would states have raised the money to fight all those world wars without central banks and fiat money? Gee, they couldn't have, so they would have been forced to make peace. It would have been a historical tragedy, wouldn't it?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, January 23, 2012

The Gold Price Reached my $1,680 Target and Should Now Rally to $1,705

Gold Price Close Today : 1678.00
Change : 14.30 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 3223.30
Change : 58.60 cents or 1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.058
Change : -0.512 or -1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01921
Change : 0.000187 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1563.70
Change : 33.20 or 2.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 686.05
Change : 12.20 or 1.8%

S&P 500 : 1,316.00
Change : 0.62 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $156.56
Change : $ (1.47) or -0.9%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.574
Change : -0.071 or -0.9%

Dow in SILVER oz : 394.28
Change : -7.67 or -1.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,708.82
Change : -11.66 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index : 79.70
Change : -0.671 or -0.8%

Today the GOLD PRICE climbed $14.30 to $1,678.00. The SILVER PRICE tagged right along and ran out front with a 58.6c rise to 3223.3c.

GOLD PRICE has now reached my $1,680 target area -- high today hit $1,681.25. Gold's present zeal argues that it will rally to $1,705 at least before pausing.

Worth noting is that gold's crucial 150 day moving average stands at $1,681.19 today. As a footnote, the GOLD PRICE also rose above its 50 DMA (1,669.54).

Remember that during this bull market gold has only rarely traded below that 150 DMA, and never for a very long time. If it climbs over soon, it may not touch that 150 DMA for a long time to come.

The SILVER PRICE has punched through a resistance line within its trading channel, with one clear goal in mind: reach 3400c. Look for it soon.

SILVER's 300 DMA, which has been as important to silver as the 150 DMA has been to gold, stands at 3428c today. About the same place stands resistance from last fall's trading. Silver has the bit in its teeth and is running away, above its 20 and 50 DMAs and raging.

Keep in mind if you are pondering buying silver or gold that you are not buying for a one or even two or five dollar gain, but a TRIPLE or quadruple. Even a five dollar gain here will look very small in hindsight. Longer you wait to buy, more they will cost.

A joke on the streets of Moscow these days: "Everything the Communists told us about communism was a complete and utter lie. Unfortunately, everything the Communists told us about capitalism turned out to be true."

Markets have made their intentions considerably clearer today. Dollar's rolling into the gutter again, stocks are indecisive and faltering, gold and silver are shaking off their worries and marching higher.

Let's start with the US Dollar Index. Dealing with all these fiat currencies for me is like having to listen to a long lecture on tapeworms and other internal parasites. Thus I want to get it behind me as quickly as possible.

What the dollar is losing, the euro is gaining as the frenzied rats, uncertain which ship will sink first, swim from one ship to the other. Here's the answer to their quandary: BOTH are sinking.

Dollar index today lost 67.1 basis points, a meaty 0.86%, to grab a branch at 79.704. Falling through the trap door at 80 sends the dollar much lower, and a fall through 79.50 (probably tomorrow) will only tie anvils to the dollar's feet.

Dollar's rally is over for a while. Broke clean through the uptrend line, closed below the 20 day moving average (80.53), and has only barely avoided breaking the 50 DMA (79.45). None of this promises anything other than lower prices for the dollar. It has fallen off the kerb into the gutter.

Euro meanwhile has a full load on and has posted two gaps up in the last 3 trading days -- breakaway gap, headed for 132+ resistance. Not clear yet how substantial this rally is, or how long it might last. May constitute no more than a rally before one last spike down, but looks good from here. Momentum points skyward as euro has passed its 20 DMA (1.2889) and is drawing a bead on its 50 DMA (1.3163). Euro closed today up 0.77% at 1.3031.

Yen did little today, up 0.08% at 129.93c/Y100 (Y76.96/US$1). Above the 20 DMA (129.62) but looking awfully tame.

STOCKS today looked lost and bewildered, some indices up, some down. Confusion promises nothing good as stocks run out of enthusiasm and steam.

Dow fell 11.66 (0.09%) to 12,708.82. Broader S&P500 rose 0.62 (get out the magnifying glass) or 0.05% to 1,316.00.

Dow acting allergic to 12,750. Last high close came 2 May 2011 at 12,810. That is now doing the same thing to the Dow that Kryptonite does to Superman.

S&P500 is also struggling at analogous downtrend line from 29 April 2011 close at 1,363.60.

Don't expect either index to reach those last high levels. This will bring great pain to many, and I take no pleasure in reporting it. Stocks are in a primary down trend, and have much, much further to fall in the years before that bear market ends.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, January 20, 2012

The Gold Price Utterly Blasted my Expectations Today, Closing Up 2 Percent for the Week at $1,663.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1,663.70
Gold Price Close 13-Jan : 1,630.60
Change : 33.10 or 2.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3164.7
Silver Price Close 13-Jan : 2949.3
Change : 215.40 or 7.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.571
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Jan : 55.288
Change : -2.72 or -4.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01902
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Jan : 0.01809
Change : 0.00093 or 5.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 158.05
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Jan : $ 157.48
Change : $ 0.57 or 0.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.646
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Jan : 7.618
Change : 0.03 or 0.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 401.95
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Jan : 421.19
Change : -19.24 or -4.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,720.48
Dow Industrial 13-Jan : 12,422.21
Change : 298.27 or 2.4%

S&P 500 : 1,315.38
S&P 500 13-Jan : 1,289.10
Change : 26.28 or 2.0%

US Dollar Index : 80.155
US Dollar Index 13-Jan : 81.531
Change : -1.376 or -1.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,530.50
Platinum Price Close 13-Jan : 1,485.80
Change : 44.70 or 3.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 673.85
Palladium Price Close 13-Jan : 636.70
Change : 37.15 or 5.8%

The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE utterly blasted my expectations today, and crushed underfoot any suspicion of a key reversal from yesterday. Yet here, too, lurk two different stories, subtle, but not quite agreeing.

Let's take the SILVER PRICE first. It vaulted 116.5c (3.8%) today to close Comex at 3164.7c. It brushed that 3060c resistance aside like the Terminator flinging cops right and left, and climbed straight up. Never sank lower than 3029c today, and at its apogee reached 3191c. Notice, too, that it closed near the top of that range.

Internally more was going on than just that. SILVER jumped over the hurdle of its 50 DMA (3103c) and o'erleapt and internal resistance line. Let's just say silver's shirt is full of starch.

Gives me a headache to think about it, looking at the weekly chart: have I missed the low in silver? Wait, wait, there's also such a thing as a false breakout, and toward the end of metals' rallies silver always tends to outrun gold.

Either way, Silver's next stubborn resistance hangs in the sky overhead at 3400c. It could make that leap next week. However, if Monday comes a cropper and silver loses 200c or so, you'll know it was a false breakout. Otherwise, buy it at the market.

But listen as the GOLD PRICE speaks out of both sides of its mouth. It closed today up $9.60, higher than yesterday, at $1,663.7, new high close for the move, but did not today post a new intraday high. High reached only $1,666. Why didn't gold punch through $1,670 when silver was so manic?

I don't know. Maybe it means nothing, maybe it only means that resistance there is very strong and gold will play catch-up next week, maybe the NGM take offense and react when gold reaches $1,670. But look here: if gold pierces that $1,680 next week, and then works through $1,705, stop waiting and buy. The bottom has passed, a new rally has started.

Dear friends, listen and ponder: the GOLD and SILVER bull market is yet young. The public has not yet climbed aboard, and only a few investment professionals. What we have seen so far is pasty, bland cottage cheese compared to what is coming. Don't be caught standing around trying to make your mind up, only to watch silver and gold run away.

Within the markets are planted automatic circuit breakers, set to explode Humility Bombs whenever you begin to believe that you have things figured out. I stepped on those mines today.

What a week! SILVER gained -- look! --- 7.3%, while GOLD moved up only 2%. Dow gained more than gold, 2.4%, platinum augmented 3% (a word for you engineers out there), and palladium added 5.8%. Dollar index dropped 1.7%, and probably broke its rally's back.

I love kids, but mine were always easy to catch whenever they were doing something wrong. If I got one alone and asked him what he had been doing, he said one thing. When another said something else, I knew I wasn't getting the story whole.

It's the same way with markets. When markets that SHOULD confirm don't, some monkey business is afoot behind the scenes.

So today I ask myself, how could the Dow rise 96.5 points (0.76%) while the broader S&P500 rose only 0.88 (0.07%)? And when the Dow rose 3/4%, why did the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 DROP? Somebody's story doesn't match here, and when that happens with markets, the larceny of Nice Government Men pops instantly to mind. I don't want to become one of those imagination-challenged boors who blames everything on government intervention, but that doesn't mean they don't intervene. And we KNOW they have a special group, the President's Working Group on Markets, set up in the Reagan reign to manipulate the stock market. I suspect they treat the Dow, the most widely watched stock index, as a kind of Potemkin village for the economy, a number they try to keep perky so we mushrooms will feel good and not panic.

Anyhow, the Dow (if not the S&P500 or Nasdaq), has penetrated overhead resistance. If the move is real, then stocks ought to advance smartly, not dragging feet. We'll see. None of this, lest you conclude otherwise, changes my long term view of stocks, which are locked in a bear market (primary downtrend). If it's a rally, this, too, shall pass, and more diving shall follow.

Dow today ended at 12,720.48, up 96.50 or 0.76%. S&P 500 closed 1,315.38, up 0.88 (0.07%).

I bet y'all wonder why I waste good electrons talking about the scrofulous US dollar index and scabby euro and scurvy yen. Easy: they are the chief competitors to silver and gold. Their course offers guidance where the metals are headed, and chronicles the metals' ongoing war of annihilation against all the phony fiat currencies in the world.

Dollar ended the day down only 6.1 basis points (0.08%) at 80.155, thus capping a week of disaster. Dollar index smashed through its uptrend line today. That does not guarantee twill proceed lower, as it did the same for several days early this month and again in December, but whenever a market breaks a trend line or resistance, the presumption states it will continue in that direction.

Anyway, think about the backdrop. The world's states are engaged in a very polite war of competitive devaluation, trying to build their own economies at their neighbor's expense. Everyone smiles and bows and says they're working together, but back in the office they are figuring out how to lower their currency's value. Truth is, neither the Bernancubus nor the White House Toad want an appreciating dollar. Worse, they've had a fight on their hands as scared money poured out of the euro all summer, headed for refuge in US treasuries and driving up the dollar.

For what technical analysis is worth under these manipulated circumstances, today the dollar index fell through both its uptrend line AND the 20 day moving average (80.51). That targets a fall at least to the 50 DMA (79.39), although some support lingers around 79.70 - 79.85.

Euro today closed lower as traders took profits out of their week, 1.2931, down 0.23%. Yen changed nothing, up 0.11% at 129.83c/Y100 (Y77.03/US$1).

Also, I have learned that altogether y'all know almost everything in the world, so I have a question. Anybody know where I can find a slightly used 10 - 20 kilowatt PROPANE generator, a good brand like Kohler? Drop me an email if you do, please.

Again I must confess, I just don't get it. I heard a lady from South Carolina on National Proletarian Radio (voice of Socialism Worldwide). They are voting in the meaningless Republican primary for president this weekend, you know, the one with the Invisible Candidate (R*n P**l). This lady lives in a county with 12% unemployed, and she said they needed to elect somebody who could help them. I gasped for air.

Doesn't she understand that the government is the REASON we suffer economic turmoil and instability? Rotten money?

With all due respect, when did anybody from any government ever help anybody? Of the three greatest lies in the world, the first on the list is, "Hi! I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you." All government money comes with a sock in the jaw. All government help comes with ropes, chains, and shackles.

I don't get it. Why can I see this, and somebody from South Carolina (of all places!) not see it? When are folks going to wake up grasp that the government cavalry is NOT coming, and you don't want 'em to? If anybody is going to help us, it will have to be US, and we have to start by re-building our own local economies, working to restore our neighbor's prosperity as well as our own, building on a sound foundation of clean local food grown by local people. That's just for starters.

I just don't get it. We're standing on acres of diamonds, and people still want to call in the government to screw everything up even more than they already have.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, January 19, 2012

Gold Price Closed at $1,654.10 Does the Five Day Chart Suggest a Slide Back Toward $1,605?

Gold Price Close Today : 1654.10
Change : (5.40) or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 3048.20
Change : -3.2 cents or -0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.265
Change : -0.120 or -0.2%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01843
Change : 0.000041 or 0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1518.50
Change : -6.00 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 676.50
Change : 7.60 or 1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,314.50
Change : 6.64 or 0.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $157.77
Change : $ 1.09 or 0.7%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.632
Change : 0.053 or 0.7%

Dow in SILVER oz : 414.15
Change : 1.91 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,623.98
Change : 45.03 or 0.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.05
Change : -0.560 or -0.7%

Both the GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE performed badly today. GOLD fell $5.40 to close comes at $1,654.10. That wasn't what left the burr under my saddle, though. It was a new high for the move at $1,669.92 followed by a lower close. That's the first part of a key reversal, and will be confirmed if gold closes lower again tomorrow.

An ominous double top (at $1,670) dominates the 5-day GOLD PRICE chart. A break through $1,645 puts gold on a slide back toward $1,605.

The SILVER PRICE lost only 3.2c, but again posted a possible key reversal. Reached a new high for the move, 3087c, but then closed lower at 3048.2. 5-day chart looks worse, with a formation that is not quite but almost an island reversal. From here SILVER would have to hold on at 3040c to continue rising. Otherwise, we're looking at another trip to 2980c.

I've been thinking about the Dow in Gold Dollars and the Dow in Silver Ounces. Both have been rising , silver since its April highs and gold since gold's August high. (Remember, the DiG$ or DiSoz RISE when silver or gold are outrunning stocks and fall when metals are lagging stocks).

Dig's looks like it has topped, but is above the 200 DMA and might still run to G$170 (8.224 oz of gold). DiSoz must turn around soon from its present 415 oz or will climb toward resistance at 500 oz.

What does this imply? That stocks may be about to outperform silver and gold for a while.

Gold's turning back at $1,670 (assuming it follows through downward tomorrow) also sets both metals up for a test of the December lows.

Get ready to buy.

Big news today was the Dow poking its head through 12,600 to close at 12,623.98, up 45.03 or 0.36%. Likewise the S&P500 rose 6.64 (0.5%) to close at 1,314.50.

A reader pointed out to me yesterday that I might be missing an upside down head and shoulders in stocks, and he may be right. However, if stocks rally above this level, it will be a trap for bulls that will collapse to their grief within short months.

Other big news came from the euro, which made good its escape through the downtrend line and cleared the 20 day moving average (1.2898) today to close at 1.2965, up 0.84%. Assuming it closes above the downtrend line tomorrow, the euro will have a minimum target of 1.325. This doesn't represent any underlying strength or reform, only a technical reaction to the long fall from 142.47 in October. Euro still stinks worse even than the US dollar.

The US dollar index fell 56 basis points (0.72%). Recall that 60% of the dollar index' value is determined by the euro. Now trading at 80.05, barely above 80. That certainly cracks the uptrend line, and leads to conclusion the dollar will fall at least to its 50 DMA at 79.32.

Japanese Yen lost 0.4% to 129.71c/Y100 (Y77.10/US$1). 'Twas a nasty fall, punching through but not staying below the 20 DMA (129.46). 50 DMA isn't far away at 129.13. Should the Yen close blow that, well, it's headed for 128 again.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, January 18, 2012

The Gold Price Job for Tomorrow is to Move Ahead Toward $1,680 and to Breach That $1,667 Barrier

Gold Price Close Today : 1659.50
Change : 4.30 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 3051.40
Change : 40.80 cents or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.385
Change : -0.594 or -1.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01839
Change : 0.000199 or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1524.20
Change : 3.70 or 0.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 668.90
Change : 20.00 or 3.1%

S&P 500 : 1,308.04
Change : 14.37 or 1.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $156.69
Change : $ 0.82 or 0.5%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.580
Change : 0.040 or 0.5%

Dow in SILVER oz : 412.24
Change : -2.37 or -0.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,578.95
Change : 96.88 or 0.8%

US Dollar Index : 80.51
Change : -0.668 or -0.8%

The GOLD PRICE advanced respectably today, as did the SILVER PRICE, but noticeably slower than the last few days. GOLD rose 4.30 to $1,659.50 on Comex. Silver added 40.8c to 3051.4c.

The GOLD PRICE almost reached $1,662, but had not strength to break through. Low was $1,650.95, so it closed at least near the top of its range. Yesterday's high was higher, at $1,667.30. Gold's feet are getting heavier as it nears the top of the $1,680 mountain. That this sloth struck on a day the dollar dropped markedly causes one of my eyebrows to twitch.

Plainly, gold's job tomorrow is to move ahead toward $1,680, and to breach that $1,667 barrier.

Call me a worrier, but I am not easy with the SILVER PRICE chart. Today's high was 3057c, yesterday's was 3056c. Silver's stalled dead at 3056c.

On the 5-day chart this leaves a double top, which SILVER must break through or pay the consequences. If silver falls through 2980c, it will fall another 40c in a heartbeat, then to 2850c. That would set silver up for a trip to 2600-ville.

Remember those rising wedges in both gold and silver I fretted about yesterday. They abide there still, until contradicted by higher prices.

Today I've been thinking about all the reasons the bull market in metals has not yet ended, despite all the Wise Persons opining so. Here's yet another. At the bull market peak, the Wise Persons and all media headlines will be screaming about a New Era of Perpetually High Silver and Gold Prices. Doubt it not, nor doubt that ne'er a bull market hath ever ended amid widespread doubts it will go higher. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. They end when the worrying stops.

Act 87, Scene 1 opened in the European Financial Crisis Farce today, and the audience swallowed it like a big bass nailing a minnow -- hook, line, and sinker.

IMF "announced" it would be seeking another $300 million in funding for bailing out Europe. This is, mind y'all, pie in the sky -- no agreements, no approvals, no plans, no money, just the "want-to"s. (Besides, being bailed out by the IMF is like having your life saved by a surgeon who amputates all your arms and legs to cure your hangnail.)

(By the way, if you believe the timing of this IMF announcement was accidental, talk to me about some great bargains on Florida swamp land.)

That was all the euro needed, since it was way oversold to begin with. Everybody in the world expects it to drop to 1.2000, so "everybody" has already sold it and there are no new sellers to drive it down further. Scrofulous euro rose 0.94% to 1.2856 at the close. This pokes thru, but barely, the downtrend line. Before you pop a cork, remember that the euro did the same on the first trading day in January, then promptly fell to new lows. Thus this doubter needs to see a three day close above that downtrend line. 20 DMA stands at 128.99, not far above.

The Japanese yen stood flat-footed today, up a squeenchy 0.4% to 130.23c/Y100 (Y76.79/US$1).

Of course the scabby US dollar index paid thru the nose for the scrofulous euro's rise. Dollar lost 0.86% (66.8 basis points) to 80.514. Closing below 80.50 will make the dollar look brown around the edges; below 80 sends the dollar testing its parachute. Today's low came at 80.47. No confirmation yet, but clouds are lowering over the dollar's future.

Taking enthusiasm from the IMF announcement, stock investors send stocks back up to their resistance ceiling. Dow rose 96.88 (0.78%) to close at 12,578.95, just below that 12,600 resistance. S&P 500 closed at 1,308.04, up 1.11% or 14.37 points.

Doesn't matter what I or anybody else thinks about the future of stocks, some patterns always hold true. One is the "Three Strikes and You're Out." Stocks challenged this level in May and July, and now knock upon that same door. A failure this time seals their fate, just as a significant penetration of 12,600 would send them much higher.

By the by, that July failure sent stocks to 10,600 in a few weeks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The Gold Price Closed Up $24.80 to Close at $1,655.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1655.20
Change : 24.80 or 1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.106
Change : 0.613 cents or 2.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 54.979
Change : -0.302 or -0.5%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01819
Change : 0.000099 or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1520.50
Change : 102.50 or 7.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 648.90
Change : -18.35 or -2.8%

S&P 500 : 1,289.10
Change : -6.40 or -0.5%

Dow In GOLD$ : $155.14
Change : $ (2.96) or -1.9%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.505
Change : -0.143 or -1.9%

Dow in SILVER oz : 412.62
Change : -10.23 or -2.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,422.21
Change : -48.80 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 81.18
Change : -0.332 or -0.4%

From its Friday close the GOLD PRICE rose $24.80 to $1,655.20, punching clean through $1,650 resistance as if it were wet cardboard. Way is now clear for the GOLD PRICE to test $1,680, which has been the target of this rise from the beginning.

GOLD's behavior at $1,680 will tell us plenty. If it cuts through $1,680 then $1,705, forget lower prices. If it backs off, then we will get a correction and that final kiss good-bye that is so safe to buy.

From here the GOLD PRICE must hold $1,640 to remain in its uptrend. May have shot all its ammo for the last leg and correct another day before it aims at $1,680.

The SILVER PRICE five day chart speaks with forkéd tongue. The peak last Thursday reached over 3060c, then silver fell to 2950c over the weekend. Began rising Monday (US was closed) and today rose 61.3c (from Friday) to close at 3010.6c on Comex. High came at 3056, about the same as last Thursday's 3060+.

Thus although the SILVER PRICE rise off the weekend low was muscular, it didn't pierce 3060, leaving a potential double top. Must penetrate that 3060c double top in the next two days or fall back. Today's low at 2988c matches earlier support around 2990, but strongest support lies at this weekend's 2950 low.

On a longer term chart this last three to five weeks' activity looks like a deadly rising wedge. Same shows up on gold's chart, too, by the way. Think of NASCAR, where they wave a yellow flag -- that's that wedge, until something happens to gainsay it.

Bottom line: this week gold should hit $1,680 and reveal its intentions for some time to come. Gold must hold $1,640 or contradict its uptrend. Silver must not fall through 2950c, and must pierce 3060c this week. Otherwise, we do more penance at lower prices.

I hope y'all enjoyed your day off yesterday. Markets sure did. GOLD, SILVER, and stocks were closed yesterday, hence y'all heard not from me.

That euro is making me nervous. Whenever the world and I are all expecting lower prices, the limit of the move is probably near. This is a warning that the euro has completed a down move and is due for a corrective rally at least. That also implies that the US dollar index might suffer a downfall, at least temporarily.

Fundamental causes driving the euro down have not changed -- banks still insolvent thanks to tons of unpayable government debt they hold, government insolvencies still not solved and distrust is spreading to the debt of the big countries now. Still, fundamentals only drive markets over the long term. Day to day, anything can happen.

Today the euro turned up. Rose 0.43% to 1.2729, and bumped its itty head on the overhead downtrend line (from the November breakdown). Yen also rose today, only 0.18% to 130.17c/Y100 (Y76.82/US$1), but also bumping on overhead resistance, and above its 20 DMA (129.30) and 50 DMA (129.05) and 200 DM (127.08). All headed up, so yen's momentum is up, too.

US DOLLAR INDEX stumbled over the weekend. From Friday's nearly 81.80 high it fell to a low today at 80.77, establishing that level as new support. Dollar's daily chart shows a double bottom before New York opened, then stronger prices all day. Closed at 81.80, down 33.2 basis points or 0.43%. However, like a vulture circling in the sky, the dollar lurched into its uptrend line (about 81.25). That may be a mere touch for further footing to another rise, or it might mark the advance's end. We'll see tomorrow, but I expect to see a higher dollar still. This rise ought to reach at least 82.50, maybe 83.50 before it ends. Anything higher points to prices above 88.70. Dollar is building what looks an awfully lot like a rising wedge, deadly to higher prices, so it must not close below 80.

Somewhere around 12,450 Dow lies a line of Enthusiasm and Despair. Below that point, investors run like Bugs Bunny from Elmer Fudd. Above that line they snort cocaine and buy. Dow hit 12,573.65 today, and bounced off like a mudball toward the ground. Closed at 12,482.22, up 60.16 (0.48%), not much of a gain for all that work.

S&P 500 rose 0.35% (4.57 points) to close at 1,293.66.

I know that minds greater and more insightful than mine, some of them paid big Wall Street money to think and talk, say that stocks will head higher. I know they are smarter than this natural born fool from Tennessee, but if somebody in pointy shoes and a shiny suit told you that pigs could fly or central bankers could think, would the shoes and suit make you believe him?

All I can see is a gigantic broadening top in the Dow, and a deadly rising wedge, blocked by double resistance about 12,600. BICBW.

Saw a letter from a subscriber in Steve Saville's The Speculative Investor. Subscriber complained that he was losing interest in watching the market because of the elephant in the living room, i.e., the financial crisis now roiling Europe that has been running since 2008. You just never know when that elephant will lift a foot and put it down, crushing all your expectation. Nor can you know the government/central bank reaction and its effect.

This elephant overhanging every market takes all the fun out of watching markets. It was already getting a bit tiring, watching folks proving the same thing over and over, or unsuccessfully trying to disprove it. I'm worn out with it, because it doesn’t mean anything any more, and nobody learns. The brainless apparatchiki and Keynesian ideologues who run central banks will -- PLAINLY -- respond in the same stupid way to every crisis, pushing bales of new money out the window. All that only prevents any real debt and bad investment liquidation that would cleanse the economy for renewed growth.

I'll say it: there is no hope for the government run economies of the world, and that's all of 'em. The only cures that would work -- sound money and economic freedom -- they will as likely embrace as a wino will begin drinking Coca-cola and hot tea.

I don't know about the rest of y'all, but I have no lease here in La-La-Land. I'm focusing my energy on building an economy that DOES work, and making an end-run around the government Luddites and troglodytes. And I'm going to look for those folks who feel the same way, people whose word is as good as a hand-shake and wouldn't call a lawyer if a police car ran over them.

And if they pick me up and put me in jail again, well, I'll find something to do there, too, but the alternative is to watch the economy crumble around us and leave ruins for our grandchildren. I'm not electing any presidents, no congressmen, not joining political movements, because I don't have to wait until the world is perfect to build the world I want. I'm doing it now, with the people who want the same thing, and all those bossmen and their wreckers and enforcers will just have to root hog, or die, but without me.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, January 16, 2012

The Gold Price Lost $16.90 Today Closing at $1,630.40

Gold Price Close Today : 1,630.40
Change : -16.90 or -1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 2949.00
Change : -60.00 cents or -2.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,486.80
Change : -12.20 or -0.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 634.50
Change : -6.20 or -1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.29
Change : 0.54 or 1.01%

Dow Industrial : 12,422.06
Change : -48.96 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 81.45
Change : 80.62 or 99.0%

Franklin Sanders has not published any commentary today, if he posts commentary later in the day it will be posted here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, January 13, 2012

The Gold Price Has Most Likely Bottomed Working Through Two Resistance Levels up $14.50 for the Week to Close at $1,616.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1,630.60
Gold Price Close 6-Jan : 1,616.10
Change : 14.50 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 2949.3
Silver Price Close 6-Jan : 2865.3
Change : 84.00 cents or 2.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 55.288
Gold Silver Ratio 6-Jan : 56.402
Change : -1.11 or -2.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01809
Silver Gold Ratio 6-Jan : 0.01773
Change : 0.00036 or 2.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 157.48
Dow in Gold Dollars 6-Jan : $ 158.10
Change : $ (0.62) or -0.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.618
Dow in Gold Ounces 6-Jan : 7.648
Change : -0.03 or -0.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 421.19
Dow in Silver Ounces 6-Jan : 431.37
Change : -10.17 or -2.4%

Dow Industrial : 12,422.21
Dow Industrial 6-Jan : 12,359.92
Change : 62.29 or 0.5%

S&P 500 : 1,289.10
S&P 500 6-Jan : 1,277.81
Change : 11.29 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 81.531
US Dollar Index 6-Jan : 81.264
Change : 0.267 or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,485.80
Platinum Price Close 6-Jan : 1,401.00
Change : 84.80 or 6.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 636.70
Palladium Price Close 6-Jan : 613.20
Change : 23.50 or 3.8%

The GOLD PRICE and the SILVER PRICE proved that I had misread the chart yesterday, thinking they had yet one more small leg to rise. However, that euro fall/dollar spurt knocked them back.

The GOLD PRICE lost $16.70, closing Comex at $1,630.60; silver gave back 59.9c to end at 2949.3. How much damage was done?

Very little. The GOLD PRICE remained above $1,630 support/resistance. Not bad after a week working through two resistance levels ($1,607 and $1,625). However, if gold closes BELOW $1,630, there's no safety net above $1,607, and a fall through $1,607 - $1,600 would evoke painful defections from gold's newly won fair weather friends.

Yet this, too, is valuable. Extent of this fall will tell us how healthy gold is, and whether it has bottomed in truth. Even if it fell to $1,550 (don't I wish!), that would merely confirm the previous (29 December) low as a bottom. Only violating that bottom ($1,523.90) would imperil gold with new low prices.

If I had to say, and I never can seem to resist saying, it appears that gold has moved stoutly off its bottom and will make one further leg up toward $1,680 before it is dragged back into another correction. If so, Monday or Tuesday surely will see gold rise through $1,650 resistance, perhaps as high as $1,705 before it relents.

After all's said and done, the SILVER PRICE gained 2.9% this week, passing several milestones along the way. First, it crossed above the 20 day moving average (2908c). Next, it punched thru the downtrend line from the September highs, and for four days has abided above that line. From a close to the ground viewpoint, silver broke out then went back to the trend line today to plant a final kiss good-bye on its forehead.

All this makes it all the more important that silver hold 2950c support, lest the newly boarded rats jump ship. Above silver must clear 3050c resistance.

A break of 2950c support would not necessarily take silver below 2850c again, but it would lean it that way sharply. Monday will reveal silver's mind for the week. My money is on higher silver next week.

IN SUM, GOLD has most likely bottomed, although SILVER might have one more drop in mind, not necessarily to a new low. Time to start buying.

Doing a little thinking the last few days has led to some gold targets I am almost loath to share with y'all, they sound so high. By end of 2012 or January 2013, gold ought to cost $2,660 an ounce. Top of this next wave that just began stands somewhere ABOVE $4,500. Yes, yes, I know it sounds crazy, but I'm just the reporter, not the creator. At $4,500 gold a 30:1 ratio puts silver at $150.

Crazy, but y'all will behold it, and with your own eyes.

This week's big gainers were platinum (up 6.1%), palladium (3.8%), and silver (2.9%). Gold gained only modestly (0.9%), as did stocks. US dollar index remained above 81 and gained a little ground: rally intact.

Tomorrow is the 12th anniversary of the 14 January 2000 all time inflation-adjusted high in the Dow: 11,722. That would equal 15,325 today. So in value-terms, although the Dow today stands nominally above that 11,722 close, it's an illusion. In inflation adjusted dollar terms, the Dow since 2000 has lost 19% of its value. Against gold and silver it has lost much more, over 80%.

Today the Dow lost 48.81 (0.4%) to close 12,422.21. S&P500 lost 6.4 (0.5%), ending at 1,289.10. For the week, the Dow tried to penetrate doubled resistance at 12,600 from the long narrow triangle it fell out of last August, failed even to beat 12,500, and has rolled over almost off the bed. Next move will be an Edgar Rice Burroughs special, headed toward The Earth's Core. Will look like a mole with a motor.

(Yesterday I wrote that the Dow had fallen out of a "long narrow equilateral" triangle. One puzzled reader wrote to ask me how a triangle could be both long and narrow AND equilateral. I wore out three try-squares trying to figure a way, but couldn't. So scratch the "equilateral." The triangle was just long and narrow, period.)

Today the US dollar gained a massive 76.1 basis points (0.98%) to close 81.531, while the euro lost 1.11% to close at a new low for the move, 1.2675. What happened?

When talks on cutting Greece's debt looked close to collapsing, the S&P rating agency downgraded government debt of France, Austria, Italy, and Spain by a notch each. From AAA France and Austria fell to AA+, Italy was lowered to BBB+ and Spain twitched from AA- to A. That spooked investors out of euros and into dollars, which may be likened to hiding from a lion in a bear's den.

Folks may pretend that Greece, with less than 2% of the Eurozone's GDP, raises no waves when its boat sinks. However, they can't pretend that France doesn't matter, since portfolios all over Europe are stuffed with France government debt which today became worth much less than yesterday.

The pretence of debt and fiat money is melting like a wax mask too near the fire. What can any investor count on any longer, when what was supposed to be the lowest risk investment -- government debt -- suddenly devalues overnight, or may even be wholesale devalued in banking deals out of control of investors or citizens?

Under these circumstances, I remember those great sentiments of Omar Khayyam, "Ahhh! Take the cash, and let the credit go, nor heed the rumble of a distant drum." You'd better get value in your own hands and in real things, because all the abstracts and illusions are leaving the planet for money heaven.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.