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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

The Gold Price Lost $9.20 Today Closing at $1,610.50 Must Not Drop Below $1,600

Gold Price Close Today : 1610.50
Change : -9.20 or -0.57%

Silver Price Close Today : 2789.50
Change : -11.9 or -0.42%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 57.734
Change : -0.083 or -0.14%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01732
Change : 0.000025 or 0.14%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1415.40
Change : 5.10 or 0.36%

Palladium Price Close Today : 589.75
Change : 2.20 or 0.37%

S&P 500 : 1,382.82
Change : -2.48 or -0.18%

Dow In GOLD$ : $167.48
Change : $ 0.65 or 0.39%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.102
Change : 0.031 or 0.39%

Dow in SILVER oz : 467.76
Change : 1.10 or 0.24%

Dow Industrial : 13,048.11
Change : -24.90 or -0.19%

US Dollar Index : 82.62
Change : -0.169 or -0.20%

The GOLD PRICE mounted an attack on $1,625 resistance today, reached $1,627.70, then collapsed to close near the bottom of the range, down $9.20 at $1,610.50. Appears to me that the GOLD PRICE will stage another rise tomorrow, then fade to a low perhaps lower than today's. What's important? Must not drop below $1,600.

About noon today, just at $1,618, somebody smacked gold with selling, sending it down suddenly to $1,610. Program trading? NGM? Who knows.

The SILVER PRICE misplaced 11.9c today, closing at 2789.5c at the bottom of the range. Support from last Thursday is 2780c. Silver remains above its flat topped triangle boundary, in other words, it has still broken out to the upside and done nothing to contradict that or its rise above the 50 DMA (2777c). The SILVER PRICE usually has a slower time getting traction than gold when a rally is just beginning.

Markets are bating their breath, waiting on a policy announcement from the Federal Reserve Wednesday and from the ECB on Thursday. "Twill be more loud and showy explosions from the Blarney Cannons, but I am warning y'all, they're shooting blanks. Ain't got a single cannon ball between 'em.

Folks, look at the US dollar index chart, Notice that since last Thursday it has been basically flat, ranging 82.40 to 83.00. Today it skootched down 16.9 basis points (0.22%), ending at 82.621. On a longer term chart it punched through its 50 day moving average (82.57) Monday but didn't close there. Today it bounced off the 50 DMA and rose a little bit. In other words, since it hit the top trading channel boundary last week it has only corrected back to its 50 DMA, a common vanilla retracement. But expect no movement until the Fed and ECB touch off their Blarney Cannons. And remember that neither of them need or want a higher dollar, while both need and want a higher euro.

The Yen closed at 128.03c [Y78.11], floating just above the downtrend line but paralyzed. Can't imagine the Japanese Nice Government Men agreeing to a higher yen. Euro has bunched up around its 20 DMA (122.86). Closed today up 0.35% at $1.2305. Solid resistance is entrenched above at $1.2500. Any positive noise out of the ECB criminals on Thursday will goose it higher, but not for long.

Stocks were confused today, some indices rising, some falling, none very clear. Confusion and indecision abound. Dow shrank 24.9 points (0.19%) to 13,048.11. S&P500 did about the same, losing 2.48 (0.,18%) to 1,382.82.

S&P500 is hovering just beneath resistance from that neckline that broke down in May. A Fed announcement perceived as "positive" will give it an up-spurt, but ask yourself: is it a real market if it depends on central bank announcements to survive? Who's kidding whom?

As the European and US economies continue to unravel, do not expect any of the frauds in charge to appear on TV announcing they are rolling-back regulations, reducing taxes, eliminating the social burden on employers, or adopting a gold standard. Any of those would help, and fast, to restore economies, but all of them require government to give up fascist control over lives. That they will never do -- voluntarily.

These past few days I may have sounded rather harsh and unforgiving toward the criminals, parasites, and tyrants who stand in the way of our lives, freedom and prosperity. Most of the time I merely laugh at them because they are so ridiculous, posturing as Great Benefactors of Humanity and Wise Men when in fact they lack enough maturity to be admitted to an adult Sunday School class. But watching them is like watching a drug addict or alcoholic destroy his life. On the one hand a terrible sadness seizes you whenever someone destroys himself, but at the same time his self-destruction infuriates you so that you want to hit him upside the head with a tire iron and tell him to "Grow Up!"

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, July 30, 2012

The Gold Price and Silver Price have Confirmed their Upside Breakout

Gold Price Close Today : 1619.70
Change : 1.70 or 0.11%

Silver Price Close Today : 2801.0
Change : 53.7 or 1.95%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 57.826
Change : -1.068 or -1.81%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01729
Change : 0.000314 or 1.85%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1410.30
Change : 3.60 or 0.26%

Palladium Price Close Today : 587.55
Change : 16.50 or 2.89%

S&P 500 : 1,385.30
Change : -0.67 or -0.05%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.85
Change : $ (0.19) or -0.11%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.071
Change : -0.009 or -0.11%

Dow in SILVER oz : 466.73
Change : -9.22 or -1.94%

Dow Industrial : 13,073.01
Change : -2.65 or -0.02%

US Dollar Index : 82.79
Change : 0.115 or 0.14%


The GOLD PRICE baby-stepped up today, adding $1,70 to close Comex $1,619.70. Resistance at $1,625 stopped today's high cold at $1,624.70. Range was only $10, very small and quiet.

Yet GOLD has now made good its escape from the triangle (upside breakout) good for three days. Couldn't ask much more than that.

The SILVER PRICE leapt 2% (53.7 cents) to 2801.4c after a 2823c high. Lo, silver is joining the race! 'Tis not unusual for silver to lag in the first few yards of a rally, as it has the last 3 days. But today it o'erleapt that 2800c resistance. O, yes, the close at 2801.4c looks symbolic only, but it might have been the NGM painting the tape, too, since the aftermarket has boosted silver to 2815c and gold to 1,621.40.

Today's close confirmed the SILVER PRICE breakout from the triangle for the second day, and took silver above the 50 DMA (2777c). Full of hope.


The US DOLLAR INDEX rose 11.5 basis points (0.139%) to end the day at 82.791. This saith not a lot, and certainly doesn't change the dollars immediate direction. Of course, the euro lost 0.28% to $1.2257 so maybe sobriety is again wreaking its hung-over vengeance on euro buyers. Yen also lost 0.25% to 127.91c (Y78.18), which also changes nothing, says nothing, and means nothing.

Now the hard part comes for ECB head Mario Draghi. He fired off the blarney cannon last week, spooking all the birds off the electric lines, but now he has do DO something. Take some action. And what precisely can he do to save the European economy, the euro, and the universe? He's shooting blanks.

Well, the lawyers have started circling. The first inevitable lawsuit in the Libor scandal has been charged as a small New York bank has filed suit alleging it was damaged by Libor price fixing. Y'all ain't seen nothing yet. Odds scream that not one but every bank colluded, and that the Big Brothers in that collusion were the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, because they were. Central banks' reason for existing is to fix interest rates and inflate.

Have y'all ever seen a road-killed armadillo in the road that's been baking in the sun a couple of days? If you went and picked it up, that stuff that would run out is exactly what's inside the entire financial system, including banking and central banking: corruption and maggots.

STOCKS lost their merriment today when some suspicious soul asked exactly HOW Draghi was going to save the universe. Dow lost 2.65 (0.02%) and closed 13,073.01 after a ragged day. S&P500 lost 0.67 (0.05%) to 1,385.30. Friday's punch through resistance looks now like a fluke, but stocks still have plenty of time to come back, and make highs equal to or better than May highs before the Jaws of Death snap shut. Point to observe: the Jaws WILL snap shut, taking great mouthfuls of capital with them.

By the way, yields on US treasuries staggered again today. That bubble is due to bust, but it's not yet clear whether the needle's been stuck in it. It surely will be, and when that begins the flight out of the dollar will commence.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, July 27, 2012

The Gold Price Broke Out Gaining 2.2 Percent and Must Now Close Above $1,642 to Warrant a Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 1,618.00
Gold Price Close 20-Jul : 1,582.50
Change : 35.50 or 2.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 2747.8
Silver Price Close 20-Jul : 2727.9
Change : 19.90 or 0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.883
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Jul : 58.012
Change : 0.87 or 1.5%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01698
Silver Gold Ratio 20-Jul : 0.01724
Change : -0.00026 or -1.5%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 167.06
Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Jul : $ 167.50
Change : $ (0.44) or -0.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.082
Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Jul : 8.103
Change : -0.02 or -0.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 475.87
Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Jul : 470.05
Change : 5.81 or 1.2%

Dow Industrial : 13,075.88
Dow Industrial 20-Jul : 12,822.57
Change : 253.31 or 2.0%

S&P 500 : 1,385.98
S&P 500 20-Jul : 1,362.66
Change : 23.32 or 1.7%

US Dollar Index : 82.676
US Dollar Index 20-Jul : 83.462
Change : -0.786 or -0.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,406.70
Platinum Price Close 20-Jul : 1,412.10
Change : -5.40 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 571.05
Palladium Price Close 20-Jul : 574.85
Change : -3.80 or -0.7%

'Twas a big week for silver and the GOLD PRICE. Gold gained 2.2%, but much more encouraging, it broke out of the even-sided triangle we have been watching so long, and confirmed that today with a second day's close outside the triangle.

A great start, but by no means a sure guarantee of a rally. Might be a false breakout. Today gold knocked on the next resistance, $1,625 - $1,630, with a high at $1,629.50. Couldn't hang on there, though, and closed at $1,618, up $2.90.

To warrant a rally, the GOLD PRICE must now close above $1,642, the 150 DMA and a resistance level, then move in a week or two to $1,680. More battles will fall there, as that marks the downtrend line from gold's August 2011 peak.

It is reasonable to buy this breakout, or you can wait and buy when gold overcomes $1,640. Either way, you'd better be converting US dollars, euros, yen, and all the rest of them to gold and silver.

Only nagging detail here is the SILVER PRICE failure to break through the top of its triangle. It pierced that line, but did not close above it. Today it gained 4.7 cents to close at 2747.8c.

At its high today of 2784, silver for the second day touched its 50 DMA (2777c) but did not close above it. Momentum is up, so we ought to see that last week. GOLD/SILVER RATIO at 58.883 shows silver holding back, but it's liable to play snap-back when it moves. If you are EVER thinking about swapping gold for silver, do it NOW.

Great week, but although we can see the light through the tree trunks, silver and gold have not yet left the woods. Correction lows and seasonal lows are probably behind us, and August should be a month of modest but steady gains.

This week markets got off the dime and acted. Dow jumped 2%, S&P500 jumped 1.7%. The good offices of the US Dollar precipitated these gains, catalyzed by an "official announcement" from ECB head criminal, Mario Draghi.

This week the dollar did in fact burst through 83.60, hitting an intraday high of 84.10 and the top of a long-standing trading channel. Bear in mind that position left it vulnerable to a correction at a minimum. Then, as one could see in the cards, that dollar/euro exchange rate was running too perilously like a panic for the dollar. Now add to that technical vulnerability a huge short position in euros. The set-up was perfect for some manipulation to yield maximum impact. Some "official announcement" was due.

(I pause in this meditation to footnote the inventory of central bank weapons against panic: (1) blarney, and (2) inflation. They have no other weapons. "Blarney" includes any and all methods of calming the public's fears, and is backed by nothing at all but hot air. Blarney is Ben the Bloviator or Obama the Prevaricator or Warren Buffet the Resplendent appearing on TV chanting that the "economy is basically sound.")

The official announcement came by way of ECB head Mario Draghi, who in a speech at a London investment conference made the hollow promise that the ECB would do whatever was necessary to keep the euro together. Why is that a hollow promise? Because the ECB would need about $1 trillion even to begin to do that, and if it creates that many new euros it will panic investors out of euros and Europe.

Yet no rational person today expects markets, miseducated, misdirected, and misled as they have been for decades by banks and central bankers, to react rationally to such announcements, or to see through them. Thus the dollar broke, sending the euro and stocks up. Manipulation accomplished.

Now for the nonce the pressure is off central bankers, but only for the nonce, because Draghi can deliver nothing. After wasting over $2 trillion in LTRO, nothing is better, nothing cured.

Thus the dollar fell from the top of the channel, and today through the 20 day moving average (83.05) and nearly to the 50 DMA (82.51), losing another 19.2 basis points (0.25%) to end today at 82.676. Look for this to slow down around 81.50, but it might reach all the way to the channel bottom. today around 79.40. See my Friday commentary last week for more explanation of central bankers' need for stability.

Draghi's intervention raised the euro, which gapped up from a $1.2042 low on Monday to end today up another 0.29% at $1.2305. That carries it barely above the 20 DMA ($1.2300).

A chastened yen abandoned today its pretensions to rally by dropping 0.33% to 127.45 cents (Y78.45). Japanese NGM want that front to stay quiet a while. Euro/Yen cross rate has jumped, too, after declining since April 2011. Not rallied, mind you, just ceased plummeting.

STOCKS jined in the gen'ral jubilation. Dow closed today at 13,075.88, up another 187.95 (1.46%). S&P500 rose 25.96 (1.91%) to 1,385.98.

Behold! The controlling technical formation in stocks is the Jaws of Death, or megaphone topping formation. This shows higher or level highs with ever falling lows -- a trumpet of disaster opening its mouth eastward. Today's close took the Dow up through the neckline of the Head and Shoulders top formed within the greater Jaws of Death. Two things can happen. (1) that's as far as the move extends, and it drops back, or (2) it reaches all the way to or slightly past the last top at 13,350. Either way, eventually the Jaws of Death will sink their teeth in stocks and a grand grawing will begin.

Markworthy, however, is that stocks in Dow in Gold Dollars terms only reached their position last week. Shortly stocks will diverge from gold again and the DIG$ will commence plunging.

During the War for Southern Independence Confederates, beset by munitions shortages, frequently used Quaker cannon. These were logs, emplaced and carved and painted to look like cannon, to make the enemy believe they had much more artillery than they did. What Draghi shot this week was a Quaker cannon. He has no artillery, and most he can do is keep pitty-patting at the problem, hoping to slow burn it for another 10 years and keep the panic from generalizing. He can't.

As I wrote last week,

"I'm telling y'all, as I have told y'all, this is past saving, past reforming, and you are smoking meth if you believe the measures tried so far will resuscitate severely debt-poisoned and debt-addicted economies."

Only way I know to save your capital from these criminals is to put it into silver and gold.

On this dismal day, 27 July 1694, an act of parliament granted the Bank of England a 12 year charter. Within two years they had experienced their first bank run, but the incubus was firmly fixed on England by then, and England became the beneficiary of a permanent national debt. Once you get that devil on your back, it's hard to get rid of.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, July 26, 2012

The Gold Price Rose Clearing it's Resistance Today but Still Needs to Confirm

Gold Price Close Today : 1615.10
Change : 7.00 or 0.44%

Silver Price Close Today : 2743.1
Change : -1.4 or -0.05%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.879
Change : 0.285 or 0.49%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01698
Change : -0.000083 or -0.48%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1406.60
Change : -23.40 or -1.64%

Palladium Price Close Today : 569.10
Change : -15.35 or -2.63%

S&P 500 : 1,360.48
Change : 22.59 or 1.69%

Dow In GOLD$ : $165.01
Change : $ 2.08 or 1.28%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.982
Change : 0.101 or 1.28%

Dow in SILVER oz : 469.99
Change : 8.12 or 1.76%

Dow Industrial : 12,892.43
Change : 216.38 or 1.71%

US Dollar Index : 82.83
Change : -0.809 or -0.97%

The GOLD PRICE cleared another resistance area ($1,608-$1,610) today, confirming yesterday's bump against the even-sided triangle's upper boundary. This also ranks as a breakout through and above that boundary line.

In two days gold has bounded from below the middle of the Bollinger Bands to the top band. Strong, but also suggesting it might take a break and fall back.

Tomorrow will tell us, within this outline: $1,625 - $1,630 is the next resistance. Can the GOLD PRICE clear that? Underneath us is support from $1,600, so gold must hold that. Caution: this may be a short-covering rally that may yet disappoint. It must keep advancing and must not fall below critical support like $1,595 - $1,600.

I remind y'all what's going on. Since May gold hath formed an even-sided triangle, a formation foretelling a breakout and big move, but silent as to which direction. Gold has now broken out skyward through the triangle's upper boundary, but every breakout is untrustworthy and double-tongued until it solidly confirms its intentions. GOLD will paint the Big Yes on a rally when it closes above $1,640, the 150 day moving average.

The SILVER PRICE didn't agree today. While gold rose, silver fell an irritating 1.4 cents to 2743.1c. To my suspicious mind this close looks looks a lot like somebody painting the tape, but y'all know how untrusting I am. Silver reached up and tapped on 2783c, but that came before New York opened, at 7:00 a.m. (Silver touched but did not pierce its 50 DMA at 2777c, and pierced the rising triangle's top boundary, but closed below it.)

I cannot resist saying that were I the Nice Government Men avidly desiring to discourage investors fleeing into gold, I would hit the SILVER market first. Why? It's so much smaller market that it's easier to manipulate. I get more bang for my manipulating dollar.

But let all that alone. We can also aver that what we behold on the chart is a plain impulsive upward move from Tuesday's low, and maybe the backing off today displayed only a market completing that wave up. If so, tomorrow might mount the clouds once again.

Yet moderate that. On Fridays short term traders with profits tend to take the profits and run so they can have a peaceful weekend on their yachts, not worrying about an open position.

"Oh, that Moneychanger's just hedging and talking out of both sides of his mouth!" you might say. Wrong. I'm facing the uncertainties. It appears we have a rally in gold, but I've been sucked in before, so I want confirmation.

Still, I would buy some GOLD here and LOTS of SILVER.

Yesterday came the "trial balloon" from the Austrian EC member, today came the "announcement" from the head of the ECB. I told y'all that Euro was getting too low and the dollar too high for those central bankers to stand. Dollar/euro rate just swam too close to the bottom of their pre-determined range.

Craftily, they caught an enormous herd of shorts in the euro, as everybody and his brother-in-law has been shorting the euro for months. Nothing feeds a market like panicking shorts.

Let us pause here, to get something straight. When you make an "announcement" designed to (mis)lead the market to think one particular way, that "manipulates" the market, regardless whether you bought or sold one euro for one dollar or not. And when the head of the European Central Bank, international criminal and apparatchik Mario Draghi, says publicly he will do "whatever is necessary" to maintain the euro, what conclusion will the public draw? That the euro will rise against the dollar. Unfortunately, they do not draw the correct and inevitable conclusion, namely, that he will inflate endlessly and so in the end gut the euro.

But he did panic the shorts, and momentarily re-bloat stock markets. Central banking manipulation mission completed. Now it's 5:00 p.m., let's go have a martini. We saved the world for one more day.

US dollar index fell a whopping 80.9 basis points (1.04%) clean through the 83 level to 82.826. When it broke 83.50 about 6:00 a.m. EST the dollar Niagaraed to 82.60 by 10:00, then flattened out exhausted.

The central bank criminals have much more work to do before the tame the dollar. It remains above its 20 day moving average (DMA) now 83.04. Yet my admonition a few days ago about markets making new high after new high now bears fruit. The unrelenting fall of US treasury yields (unrelenting rise of their prices) broke yesterday and today, although that reversal has not yet been consummated.

We can, then, expect the dollar to drop more not for mere technical reasons, but for overwhelming political necessities pushing central bank criminals. They must appear to ACT, whether their actions help or hinder, and hinder they will.

Euro obediently gapped up today from its Tuesday low at $1.2042, clean up to its 20 DMA (123.06), although it didn't close above that mark. It closed up 1.08% at $1.2282 (US$1=e0.8142). To give y'all an idea how low the mighty euro hath fallen, it needs to climb above $1.2693 merely to offer the suspicion its trend hath in truth tergiversated.

Yen backed off its attempt to escape its downtrend, dropping 0.05% to 127.87 cents (Y78.2). Tamed. Not about to run away, unless it can clear 128.77c.

Stocks sprinted for the top of their recent range (12,950) with a top at 12,931.22. Settled at 12,887.93, up 211.88 (1.67%). (S&P500 rose 22.13 (1.65%) to 1,360.02.) Yet although that excites stock investors like junkies looking at a car trunk full of cocaine, it is "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." Neither index managed to punch through that neckline hanging overhead. Just to accomplish that wedge of a breakout, that small beginning, the Dow needs to close above 13,050 and the S&P500 above 1,390.

Just to show y'all that "there is nothing new under the sun," on 26 July 1790 the US Senate passed what later became the Funding or Assumption Act. What was all this? The states had huge debts from the Revolutionary War, some trading as low as 10 cents on the dollar. Under the act the federal government assumed these debts. The author of this scheme was Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton, centralizer and lover of central banking and every other doleful and woeful government intervention in the economy. As a result of the Act, some speculators gained a bonanza, but, of course Hamilton knew nothing about that, I'm sure. Compare this to the European Union mess today. It's much the same. The states all issued their own currencies, in which their sovereign debt was denominated, and they inflated those currencies (as did the national government) during the war. Their sovereign debt was sadly depreciated, and unlikely to be repaid. The federal government assumed that debt, and suddenly all that bad state debt became valuable. Conceptually this is precisely what that Austrian EC member proposed yesterday, that the ESM take over all the rotten sovereign debt, and fund that by the ECB. As the French say, "The more things change, the more they remain the same." (Except they say it in French, of course.)

I reckon we're so docile and stupid the banks don't have to think up new ways to rob us. After all, the old ones are working just fine.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, July 25, 2012

The Gold Price Must Burst Through the $1,610 Line then Confirm by Moving past $1,630

Gold Price Close Today : 1608.10
Change : 31.90 or 2.02%

Silver Price Close Today : 2744.5
Change : 65.5 or 2.44%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.594
Change : -0.242 or -0.41%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01707
Change : 0.000070 or 0.41%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1395.10
Change : -23.40 or -1.65%

Palladium Price Close Today : 564.35
Change : -15.35 or -2.65%

S&P 500 : 1,337.89
Change : -0.42 or -0.03%

Dow In GOLD$ : $162.95
Change : $ (2.51) or -1.52%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.883
Change : -0.121 or -1.52%

Dow in SILVER oz : 461.87
Change : -9.10 or -1.93%

Dow Industrial : 12,676.05
Change : 58.73 or 0.47%

US Dollar Index : 83.61
Change : -0.403 or -0.48%

Once the GOLD PRICE reached $1,595 today all its enemies fled the field, throwing down their weapons as they ran like scalded dogs. From yesterday's $1,567.20 close Gold bounded to $1,609.82, and gave back very little at the close. Gained a total $31.90 and closed Comex at $1,608.10.

That mashes gold's nose plumb up against the upper boundary line of that even-sided triangle I've been talking about. Up against that line, I say, and not busted clean through. They're not the same thing by a long shot. Get this straight: gold must burst through that $1,610 line to break out of the triangle, and then confirm that breakout by moving smartly above $1,630 and $1,640. Today's move was helpful and stout, but all it did was light the fuse. Gold might still re-visit the lower boundary line before finally breaking through the upper.

The GOLD PRICE gained 2.02% today, the SILVER PRICE gained 2.44%. Silver jumped 65.5 cents to close today at 2744.5, not far from the 2756 high.

All this is welcome as cold water on a blistering day, but it's not resolved anything yet. Silver, too, bumped up against the upper boundary of its flat-topped rising triangle. It must break through 2760 and then clear 2850c to confirm a breakout.

Awww, y'all be patient. It's coming, we just can't know from today's action whether that rally is here yet or not, although we know for sure it's setting up.

Some silly Austrian on the European Council resurrected from the dead today the idea of making a "bank" out of the European Stability Mechanism so it could borrow from the ECB and thus buy up all the rotten sovereign debt. This is really bright, moving the inflation back one layer, but building in a MASSIVE inflation still. Doesn't matter, nobody can think, and certainly not anybody in markets, as this stale news sent people flying into stocks and out of the dollar.

But we did get an "announcement," didn't we, as I suggested we might.

US Dollar index fell back from that 84 level like the Wicked Witch of the East facing Dorothy with a bucket of water. Lost 40.3 basis points (0.52%) to end at 83.60.

Euro was the big gainer, up 0.67% to $1.2154. Yen stayed flat at 127.93 cents (Y78.16).

Stocks couldn't make up their mind today. Most indices lost a little, like the S&P500 down 0.42 (0.03%) to 1,337.89. But the Potemkin Dow -- O! Miracle Made In Washington! -- rose 58.73 (0.47%) to 12,676.05.

Interesting is that most indices rose much higher today than they closed. Doesn't bespeak muscularity.

Since the Dow was the strongest index today, I peeked at its chart. There is say a breakdown beginning two days ago, and today's bounce up to give the lower wedge boundary line a final kiss good bye. Stocks are suffering from acute gravity poisoning.

On 25 July 1775 Maryland issued a currency depicting George III trampling Magna Carta. Sound sentiment, but bad judgment. They printed it on paper currency, which has harmed mankind and justice more than all the kings, dictators, and tyrants in history.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, July 24, 2012

The Silver and Gold Price are Sitting at the Bottom of Correction Ranges This is as Low Risk as it Gets

Gold Price Close Today : 1575.80
Change : -1.30 or -0.08%

Silver Price Close Today : 2679.0
Change : -22.9 or -0.85%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.820
Change : 0.450 or 0.77%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01700
Change : -0.000131 or -0.77%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1382.30
Change : 3.50 or 0.25%

Palladium Price Close Today : 562.25
Change : 5.55 or 1.00%

S&P 500 : 1,338.31
Change : -12.21 or -0.90%

Dow In GOLD$ : $165.52
Change : $ (1.21) or -0.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.007
Change : -0.059 or -0.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 470.97
Change : 0.14 or 0.03%

Dow Industrial : 12,617.32
Change : -104.14 or -0.82%

US Dollar Index : 84.00
Change : 0.296 or 0.35%

Five day GOLD PRICE chart appears to have troughed yesterday about $1,563. Today gold lost a cosmetic $1.30 to close Comex at $1,575.80, but the aftermarket is gainsaying that at $1,581. Once again, this gives me no change to report. However, chart says that if the GOLD PRICE can break through its 20 DMA (1,583) it ought to race toward the top bound of that even-sided triangle ($1,610). 50 DMA, too, stands nearby at $1,586.51. Gold must hold the line at $1,560 or be o'errun by hordes of barbarian hedge funds and Nice Government Men.

The SILVER PRICE barely moved today, 2716 cents to 2662c. Closed Comex, that international paragon of exchange traded integrity, at 2679c, down 22.9c. For SILVER 2660c is the last ditch. Today kept silver above the rising triangle boundary.

Folks, I live with the possibility that the SILVER and GOLD PRICE might see another deeper break here, but I think not. Once they work their muddy path through August, a rally is coming, unless an all out international financial panic bites down. Even then, exactly how long (I wonder) will it take folks to grasp that the dollar and it's scrofulous fiat counterparts are no "safe haven" but gold (and silver) are.

There's always risk whenever you buy, but right now both metals are sitting near the bottom of their correction ranges. That's about as low risk as you get for anything in a continuing bull market.

Here's something y'all can mark down in that little book you carry with you. When day after day a market makes new highs or new lows, a whistle is blowing, warning that this won't persist much longer. Oh, it might continue a month or longer, but the message remains, "Reversal approacheth."

What makes me say these things? Yield on US treasuries hit another record low today (= bonds made a new high). As part of the same package, the euro made another new low today. Six months from now, these will be dim memories.

Trouble is, when the dollar breaks and confidence in US Treasuries as a (har-de-har-har) "safe haven," panic's liable to be coursing through the whole universe.

BWDIK, just a natural born fool from Tennessee, sitting up on a ridge suspecting everybody and everything.

Controlling my mentation about the US dollar is the presupposition that criminal central bankers conspire to manipulate exchange rates, and more than all else except a fat retirement check, they want stability. Don't let anything move too far or too fast.

So I was fiddling around with a pencil today, 'cause I have noticed that the dollar trades roughly around 80 eurocents and the yen around 80 to the dollar. Then my mind recurred to all those exchange rate bands central bankers love to play with, keeping one currency within some announced exchange rate range.

So my pencil wrote down 80 cents and added and subtracted a 2.5% band on either side: 82 cents at 78 cents. Hmmm. Yen is today at Y78.17=US$1.

Then my pencil wrote 80 cents and banded it by 5%: 84 at 76, or, for euros in terms of dollars, $1.1905 at $1.3158.

Upshot is that I suspect the central banking criminals will intervene strongly in behalf of the euro and against the US$ if the euro threatens to drop beneath $1.1905. Likewise, the miscreant banksters will intervene against the yen and for the dollar at any dollar value higher than Y82 (122c/Y100).

Leastways, that's what I'd do in their shoes, if I wore them shiny, pointy-toe Eyetalian shoes, but I go barefoot.

TODAY that US dollar index threatened to break the leash of 84 again, closing at 83.998, up 29.6 basis points or 0.38%. High came at 84.10. If the Nice Government Men and international central bank criminals cannot keep the dollar below 84, they will find themselves in boiling oil and habañeros. Panic could easily float the Samolean up to 90, and the consternation and commotion would become general to the whole world.

Euro made and closed at a new low, $1.2062, down 0.48% on the same old news we've been hearing two years, "euro is falling apart."

Meanwhile the yen closed higher for the 5th straight day, edging up 0.23% to 127.90c (Y78.17). This takes it through, but barely, the downtrending fan line. If the yen doesn't reverse, it will sprint for 128.75 and higher.

Moody's altered credit outlook for Germany, Holland, and Luxembourg (where's THAT?) to negative. This is all as ridiculous, as me trying to sing Grand Opera. Strong as Germany looks compared to the rest of Europe, it's broken-legged in real terms, burdened with government debt, social costs, and rotten banks. Comparing Germany to the rest of Europe is like comparing the US to California. It looks good till you look closer. The entire world economy has been hollowed out by the looney Keynesian dogma that countries and businesses can borrow and spend their way into prosperity.

Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) today punched through the lower boundary of its diamond formation and hit the 50 DMA (G$164.34 or 7.95 oz). Diamonds are notoriously slow to resolve, but this one has internal support around that 50 DMA, say, G$161.25 (7.80 oz). Close below that might be the straw that breaks Bernanke's back.

Stocks began the day underwater and kept sinking, floating slightly toward days end -- probably just the NGM tidying up loose ends before they race home for their preprandial martini.

Dow slipped 104.14 (0.82%) to 12,617.32. Today's low at 12,522 pretty much marks the point where stocks fall off the cliff. S&P500, too, abated 12.21 (0.9%), and it appears to me it is already hanging on the edge of that cliff. I'd be surprised if the S&P500 didn't roll on over that cliff tomorrow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, July 23, 2012

The Gold Price Closed Only $2.60 off it's High Never Stumbling Out of it's Triangle

Gold Price Close Today : 1577.10
Change : -5.40 or -0.34%

Silver Price Close Today : 2701.9
Change : -26.0 or -0.95%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.370
Change : 0.358 or 0.62%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01713
Change : -0.000106 or -0.61%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1396.50
Change : -23.40 or -1.65%

Palladium Price Close Today : 569.70
Change : -15.35 or -2.62%

S&P 500 : 1,350.52
Change : -12.14 or -0.89%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.75
Change : $ (0.73) or -0.44%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.066
Change : -0.036 or -0.44%

Dow in SILVER oz : 470.83
Change : 0.78 or 0.17%

Dow Industrial : 12,721.46
Change : -101.11 or -0.79%

US Dollar Index : 83.77
Change : 0.880 or 1.06%

The GOLD PRICE took a left to the jaw, but came back pretty well (Am I saying the same thing those stock gurus are saying? Have I completely lost my mind? I probably have.) Low came at $1,563.61, high at $1,579.74, but gold closed only $2.60 off its high, ending at $1,577.10, down on the day $5.40.

Today's low carried the GOLD PRICE all the way to the bottom boundary of that even-sided triangle we have been eternally watching, but it bounced clean back up to the middle of the range. Okay, Moneychanger, how is that different from what stocks did today?

Plainly in this wise: Stocks dropped THROUGH their rising wedge's bottom boundary. True, they closed back up within the wedge, but only barely. Gold never stumbled out of its triangle.

The SILVER PRICE repeated gold's performance, and I call both of those successful tests. Stocks didn't rank the same in my eyes. Hope I'm not just talking my position, in preparation for having my head handed to me on a platter.

Silver's low came today at 2666 cents about 8:30 but it spent the next 3-1/2 hours climbing up to 2717c. Afterward it gave back a little, but only levelled off above 2700c. Comex silver lost 26 cents to end at 2701.9c.

This sideways-to-lower times are about as comfortable as walking on sharp gravel barefooted. I know that, but it's summertime and the world's economies and fiat currencies are coming apart. You have to expect a little confusion under those circumstances. I am not worried, silver and gold will yet vindicate themselves, and I don't expect we will see lower prices that we have already seen this year.

Keep your eyes on the horizon, not on the potholes. Nothing has changed. Silver and gold remain in a bull market.

Just to set the record straight with all the possibilities and to de-calumniate the Nice Government Men from any of my wrongful accusations, it is certainly possible that those sudden spike-up/spike-down could be caused by hedge fund computerized program trading. They set the program to trade certain percentage moves, and if those occur, the computer automatically enters the trade. So it might not be NGM alone spiking the gold market. They may be getting help from computerized trading. Of course, that does NOT say they do not manipulate the gold market, as that manipulation is plainly attested by statute, statutory mandate, and policy. See the "Exchange Stabilization Fund" in the 1935 Gold Reserve Act.

French and German stock markets dropped nearly 3% today on fresh (?stale) worries that Spain may need a bailout, which, of course, is impossible given its size. Ten year Spanish government bond yields hit 7.5% while Spain's stock market regulator banned all short selling for three months. Italy followed suit, but with a shorter ban. Fear slopped over into US stock markets, but most interesting was that the US treasury yields touched record lows. Hard to pick a top in that market, but sometime here US treasuries will either absorb all the money in the world, or their price will peak and they will drop (remember, bonds move opposite to their yields, so higher bonds mean lower yields).

The gigantic belly laugh in all this, if you like Gallows Humor, is that the US dollar and yankee government debt are being called "safe havens." Safe from what? From default? Nope, that's happened several times in US history. From inflation? Not since 1913. I may be a natural born fool, but Thunderation! I ain't durned fool enough to believe a proposition THAT stupid.

If you think the Dow down 0.79% (101.11 points) at 12,721.46, or the S&P down 0.89% (12.14 points) at 1,350.52 is bad, you should have seen them at the lows, down a meaty 2.8%. Those Nice Government Men must have had a brain-busting day, bringing the Dow back from 360 points down.

Listen, there's more Looney-dom in the air. Commentators and gurus are bragging about how much the indices came back during the day. Folks, if you got to brag about something like that, you got nothing to brag about. Like one wino bragging to another that his rags are better than the other winos.

These people must think we are REALLY dumb.

US dollar index rose 88 basis points or 1.06% from Friday's close. High came at 83.99.

However, 'tain't all it seems. On the long term chart that only took the US dollar to the top boundary of its trading range stretching back to the end of 2011. Yes, the dollar MIGHT break through that channel line and run for 90, but it hasn't done yet, and the rule says sell the top of the channel and buy the bottom.

Personally, I can't imagine that international criminal Bloviating Ben Bernanke going home early tonight, not without calling his co-conspirators in the other central banks and making plans to keep the dollar from rising sunward and the euro from sinking earthward. In other words, tomorrow would be a good time for some announcements timed to knock the dollar in the head and boost the euro.

Owch. Speaking of the euro, it lost another 0.33% today to end at ANOTHER new low, $1.2118. Yen actually poked it's little noggin through the downtrend line, and ended up 0.17% at 127.58c (Y78.38).

Something about the terrible shooting in Aurora Colorado I just can't swallow. Almost always it comes out later in the small type that the shooter was on some anti-depressant, but this whole play, with the utterly unlikely shooter, looks like a genuine Manchurian Candidate operation.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, July 20, 2012

The Gold Price Seasonal Weakness and Correction Rapidly Coming to an End Stay Calm and Buy on Retreats

Gold Price Close Today : 1,582.50
Gold Price Close 13-Jul : 1,591.60
Change : -9.10 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 2727.9
Silver Price Close 13-Jul : 2734.4
Change : -6.50 or -0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.012
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Jul : 58.207
Change : -0.19 or -0.3%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01724
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Jul : 0.01718
Change : 0.00006 or 0.3%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 167.50
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Jul : $ 165.95
Change : $ 1.55 or 0.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.103
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Jul : 8.028
Change : 0.07 or 0.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 470.05
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Jul : 467.27
Change : 2.78 or 0.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,822.57
Dow Industrial 13-Jul : 12,777.09
Change : 45.48 or 0.4%

S&P 500 : 1,362.66
S&P 500 13-Jul : 1,356.28
Change : 6.38 or 0.5%

US Dollar Index : 83.462
US Dollar Index 13-Jul : 83.384
Change : 0.078 or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,412.10
Platinum Price Close 13-Jul : 1,432.50
Change : -20.40 or -1.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 574.85
Palladium Price Close 13-Jul : 584.50
Change : -9.65 or -1.7%

The GOLD PRICE mounted by $2.40 today to rest at $1,582.50. Silver waxed 8.5 cents to 2727.9 when the closing bell rang at Comex.

GOLD PRICE was beaten up but not dismayed this week. On the 5 day chart it scratched out a kind of rounding bottom, with a low at $1,568. Clearly at $1,575 lurk plenteous buyers. But that only offers us a floor. Up above, gold must break out of this jail by closing above $1,600.

GOLD tradeth still within an ambiguous even-sided triangle. Next week the bottom of that triangle stands about $1,560 and rising, the top boundary at $1,610 and falling. Today's close left gold below its 20 day moving average ($1,583.10) and its 50 DMA ($1,586.94), but barely. It's trading sideways into a tighter and tighter range, but we'll see some fun if it breaks $1,600 or $1,560.

This is not failure, only gold working out the last of its correction from last August's $1,927 high. Be patient, and buy gold whenever it has a bad day and falls. Autumn will reveal that all this sidewise trading amounted to no more than base building for a rally.

In the last fortnight's trading the SILVER PRICE has built a flat topped rising triangle within a falling wedge. These patterns usually break out upside.

Until SILVER punches through 2760c, nothing much will happen. Down below it needs to hold 2610c. As with gold, buy on any retreats.

Premiums on silver and gold physicals still indicate strong physical demand.

If you haven't yet traded gold for silver, now's about your time. Ratio stands at 58.012 today, and surely won't linger there for long.

I sing the same song as last week: summer seasonal weakness for silver and gold and a correction rapidly coming to its end. Be calm, keep your eyes on the horizon, not the bumpy ground in front of you, and don't listen to anybody who works on Wall Street or in Washington or the mainstream media..

If markets get any flatter, we'll need to hold a mirror under their nose to see if they're still breathing.

This week silver gave up a empty 6.5 cents, dollar a piddlin' $9.10, Dow escalated a nugatory 0.4%, S&P500 a hollow 0.5%, while the almighty US dollar (index) levitated a feckless 0.1%.

Look at that US Dollar index 5 day chart. (You can view it yourself at www.ino.com, using symbol "NYBOT:DX".) These tea leaves present two warring interpretations. First, the dollar made a correction this week with a rounding bottom and next week will burst through 83.60 to greater highs. On the other hand, the dollar may have broken and today jumped up for a final kiss good bye before falling through 82.75 next week headed for the earth's core.

My outlook for the dollar is strongly colored by central bankers' needs. Those needy fellers right now need stability more than anything else, and neither the European criminals (ECB) nor the US racketeers (Fed) want the dollar to run moonward while the euro plumbs the Marianas trench. They want to keep the whole system together, not preside over its demise. Therefore expect the dollar to remain BELOW the last 83.83 high, but above the 81.52 last low.

But the stability plan isn't panning out. Surprise. Euro gapped down and made another new low for the move today -- $1.2144, lowest since May, 2010. None of that is liable to make Mario Draghi or Angela Ferkel or Bloviating Ben sleep well tonight. Closed down 0.94% at $1.2164. As grounds for this tumble media tout a request from the heavily indebted Valencia region asking Madrid for financial aid. That hints that Spain itself needs rescuing. That sucked all optimism out of stocks and the euro and sent it hurtling into the black hole of outer space.

Note, dear readers, how the Central Bank criminals have been applying the "slow burn" technique to European problems. In their book, if it doesn’t flare up into a full-blown panic with lines outside the banks and blood running by gallons in the street, they are still winning. If they get to 5:00 p.m. and the financial system hasn't exploded, they win. Today. I could almost guarantee that they already have a target for the new $/Euro exchange rate, somewhere around $1.1800 - $1.2000, and when it reaches that level they'll all start intervening to set a new rate. In other words, they are devaluing the euro like a kid slowly hissing the air out of a balloon.

I'm telling y'all, as I have told y'all, this is past saving, past reforming, and you are smoking meth if you believe the measures tried so far will resuscitate severely debt-poisoned and debt-addicted economies.

Ain't no central bankers going to let that yen run away, either. Today it gained 0.11% to end at 127.36c (Y78.47), but that just edged it sidewise and didn't rise through the downtrend line. Remains, however, above the 200 DMA (126.68), a sure botheration for the Japanese Nice Government Men.

Stocks this week hit their top Bollinger Band (a measure of current range) and, unable to penetrate, bounced down, losing most of the weeks' gains today.

S&P 500 dipped 1.01% today (13.85) to close 1,362.66. Dow slipped 0.93% (120.79) and ended 12,822.57.

A bear market likes to lure investors into its den where it can maul them and gnaw their bones at leisure. 'Twouldn't surprise me to see the Dow reach 13,000 to universal jubilation before it plunges again. Y'all just remember that when the jubilation breaks out, so you don't get mangled in the bear's cave.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.



Thursday, July 19, 2012

The Silver and Gold Price are Holding Their Own Fundamentals Unchanged Prices Sure to Rise

Gold Price Close Today : 1580.10
Change : 9.70 or 0.62%

Silver Price Close Today : 2719.4
Change : 12.3 or 0.45%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.105
Change : 0.094 or 0.16%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01721
Change : -0.000028 or -0.16%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1420.70
Change : 3.50 or 0.25%

Palladium Price Close Today : 583.60
Change : 5.55 or 0.96%

S&P 500 : 1,376.51
Change : 3.73 or 0.27%

Dow In GOLD$ : $169.33
Change : $ (0.57) or -0.34%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.191
Change : -0.028 or -0.34%

Dow in SILVER oz : 475.96
Change : -0.88 or -0.18%

Dow Industrial : 12,943.36
Change : 34.68 or 0.27%

US Dollar Index : 82.89
Change : -0.110 or -0.13%

The GOLD PRICE augmented (that's for you engineers) by $9.70 to close at $1,580.10. Silver added 12.3 cents to close Comex at 2719.4c.

Oh, it's tough grinding through these vibrations! GOLD PRICE 5 day chart shows a rounded bottom yesterday with a surge today to $1,591.50, and of course the Invisible Hand was up early this morning, right at the open, but when gold shrugged that slapping off, the Hand showed up again about 1:00 to make sure gold didn't reveal the game by closing a lot higher, driving it down to $1,576.20 right before the close. Yeah, sure.

The SILVER PRICE chart moves across five days in a range from 2680c to 2760c, and it reached that high again today at the open but -- What a surprise! -- came the invisible hand to slap it down. Doesn't matter a pile of beans, the SILVER and GOLD PRICE are both holding their own, biding their time. Just wait patiently, holding your cards, till silver and gold start slapping those Nice Government Men back.

Whenever we have to trudge and wallow through long corrections fatigue eventually dulls us. We have a long term strategy, it is working, it has thrilled us with new, un-heard of highs, but then it corrects, as anyone could foretell, and we descend into despair and self-doubt. Awww, cut it out! No fundamental has changed. All those factors sure to drive silver and gold up -- more inflation from government and central banks -- continues unabated. Unabated?! Mercy, they've had SIX YEARS to clean up their act, and they only piled the mistakes, inflations, and bailouts higher and deeper. The never learn, they never help, they never apologize. Governments, central banks, banks, and Wall Street face the same imperative: INFLATE OR DIE.

They will inflate, even if all the rest of us die.

I have to share a lesson with y'all that I learned in 1980, and it cost me about $100,000 -- and those were 1980 dollars. Here 'tis: "Every rise in a market doesn't necessarily show strength." This becomes diabolically deceptive when you are long a market past the time you should have exited, and want your opinion confirmed. Best way to get anybody to believe a lie is, as Lenin told his secret police chief Felix Dzerzhinsky when he asked how he would get people to believe in the phony opposition he was creating, is to "Tell them what they want to hear."

We lie to ourselves the same way, picking and choosing the facts that agree with us, and pitching out those bothersome facts that gainsay our bent. It's a VERY expensive habit.

Strength in markets does not necessarily reveal true underlying strength, anymore than strength in a fever victim fighting off nurses reveals his healthful state.

So I watched today with interest as stocks rose, the Dow by 34.68 (0.27%) and the S&P500 by 3.37 (0.27%). My, O, my, they are a-blowin' and a-goin, except that they ain't. Both have merely rallied to the neckline of a topping head and shoulders formation, a neckline they punctured in May. This "strength" is merely a market touching back to the breakdown line, a typical "final kiss good-bye." Worse, both have formed deadly rising wedges, promising much lower prices.

But, shucks! What do I know? I'm just a natural born ridge-running fool and I ain't even been wearing shoes but a year and a half, let alone even seed a pair of them pointy-toed Eyetalian shoes them Wall Street fellers wear. How could I know Sic 'em from Come Here?

Let that alone and let's look at currencies. Hey! Don't make that face! I don't want to do it either, but I have to.,

US dollar index eroded today, down 11 measly basis points to 82.89, not much above the 82.734 low and down only 0.14%. This strikes me as the same Invisible Hand of the Nice Government Men we always see. In any other market, breaking crucial support would knock it a long ways lower, but not the dollar index -- only so low and no lower. Well, let drop my conspiratorialism -- well founded as it is in history and government policy -- and look at the chart. 20 day moving average lurketh at 82.78, and a break through that SHOULD take the dollar lower. Uptrend line today strikes about 81.70, but the loud confirmation of the dollar's earthward intention would come with a close below the last low, 81.52. Trend remains up until that happens.

Yen gapped up today and gained 0.27% to 128.77c (Y77.66/US$1). It's almost touching the downtrend line overhead, and last high came at 128.77. I mention that because it must exceed that last high in order to confirm even the SUSPICION of an uptrend. Other indicators favor higher yen.

Not joining in the general jubilation today was the euro, closing unchanged at 122.79. Slight chance the MACD might be turning up. Slight. Expect to see 1.2000 or 1.1800 before you see that.

GOOD THINGS GOING ON HERE: Sometime in September, at last, I hope to publish volume one of AT HOME IN DOGWOOD MUDHOLE, the tale of my family's move to the farm. I have to admit, it makes me laugh and cry. I hope it does the same for y'all.

Another thing: Labor Day Saturday we always throw a big party here at the farm, our Bodacious Hoedown. It includes games and an Old Time band, dance caller, and big dinner with all trimmings, featuring our mean grown here on the farm. Details on that tomorrow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, July 18, 2012

The Gold Price Has Drawn Support at $1,570 Be Patient and Buy the Dips

Gold Price Close Today : 1,570.40
Change : -18.70 or -1.18%

Silver Price Close Today : 2707.00
Change : -2.00 or -0.08%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.010
Change : -0.645 or -1.10%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.0172
Change : 0.0002 or 1.11%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,401.80
Change : 3.50 or 0.25%

Palladium Price Close Today : 576.30
Change : 5.55 or 0.97%

S&P 500 : 1,372.78
Change : 9.11 or 0.67%

Dow In GOLD$ : $169.92
Change : $ 3.36 or 2.02%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.22
Change : 0.16 or 2.02%

Dow in SILVER oz : 469.20
Change : 2.96 or 0.63%

Dow Industrial : 12,908.70
Change : 103.10 or 0.81%

US Dollar Index : 82.97
Change : -0.00 or -0.00%

The GOLD PRICE lost $18.70 (1.18%) today, closing Comex at $1,570.40. Silver lost less, 22.1 cents (0.8%), to end at 2707.1 cents.

GOLD & SILVER are just in the middle of things. Middle of the trading range defined by Bollinger bands, middle of the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) and in the middle of the Williams % R. Just middlin', that's all.

The SILVER PRICE over the past 3 days has formed a sort of diamond formation that could break further or could merely found a continuation. Gold's chart isn't nearly so clean, but has drawn a support line at $1,570 with last Friday's low. I know to remain alert always, but can't see anything in all this other than the indecisive back & forth trading in a triangle. It will resolve. Be patient, & buy the dips.

I hate to waste y'all's time with meaningless stuff -- and everything that happens in Washington is meaningless -- but this was too ridiculous to pass up, because it is simply a hilarious, gargantuan, bald- faced lie, colossal even by Washington standards.

Federal Reserve chairman & noted criminal Ben "the Bloviator" Bernanke spoke to the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. Somebody brought up Ron Paul's bill to audit the Fed and allow congress to review the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The very thought of that sent Bernanke's Lying Gland squirting into overdrive. The result is so hilarious I have to share it with y'all, from the Reuters report:

"Bernanke said it would be a 'nightmare scenario' if politicians decided to second-guess monetary policy. [Nightmare? Nightmare? Worse than what we suffer now? -- FS]

"That is very concerning [this is barely recognizable as English -- FS] because there's a lot of evidence that an independent [Yuck! Yuck! Yuck!] central bank that makes decisions based strictly on economic considerations [Yuck! Yuck!] and not based on political pressure [Yuck, yuck even more!] will deliver lower inflation & better economic results in the longer term."

To maintain the Fed does not base its actions on political pressure is, well, simply hilarious. And to claim that with or without political pressure it can deliver "lower inflation & better economic results in the longer term" flies in the face of all known history since the Fed's founding in 1913.

Maybe he's not just a criminal. Maybe he's a sociopath, too. Or maybe he's practicing to be a stand up comedian!

So, all joking aside -- and them central bankers are notoryus jokers, all funny bone -- what happened to markets today?

Dollar took a tee-tiny hit from the Bernancubus' comments, stocks read in them the soon-coming Jubilee, & silver & gold tucked tail and ran.

The US dollar index right now is trading down 4/10 of a basis point, but below the 83 psychological barrier at 82.972. For three days now the buck has knocked on 89.92, increasing the odds that next time it knocks, the trap door will open.

Euro lost 0.7% today, basically flat at $1.2284. Yen added 0.34% to 126.91c (78.80), but is just vibrating around its 200 day moving average 126.71), unable to make up its mind and still trapped in a downtrend.

Stocks drank a bunch of that Bernanke Booze & ran hog wild. Dow rallied 103.16 (0.81%) to 12,908.70. S&P500 gained 0.7% (9.11) to 1,372.78.

Tame your jubilation, stock investors. This merely brings both indices closer to the neckline of the head & shoulders top they already smashed in May. More, they have scratched out Rising Wedges, which generally fail & crash.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



The Gold Price Merely Moved Sideways Today Bull Market Remains Buy the Drops

Gold Price Close Today : 1589.10
Change : -2.10 or -0.13%

Silver Price Close Today : 2729.20
Change : -00.5 or -0.02%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.226
Change : -0.066 or -0.11%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01717
Change : 0.000020 or 0.11%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1418.30
Change : 3.50 or 0.25%

Palladium Price Close Today : 582.10
Change : 5.55 or 0.96%

S&P 500 : 1,363.67
Change : 10.03 or 0.74%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.58
Change : $ 1.25 or 0.76%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.058
Change : 0.061 or 0.76%

Dow in SILVER oz : 469.20
Change : 2.96 or 0.63%

Dow Industrial : 12,805.54
Change : 78.33 or 0.62%

US Dollar Index : 83.02
Change : -0.131 or -0.16%

Neither silver nor the GOLD PRICE gave up any secrets today. Gold shaved off $2.10 to end at $1,589.10. Silver lost -- get your microscope ready -- one half cent to close 2729.2.

The GOLD PRICE low stretched lower than yesterday at $1,571.80 but the high reached higher, to $1,599. And WHOOPS! There's another one of those funny formations, where gold begins to rise sharply and within a little while is slapped winded and driven down. Jes' an accident, I bet, an artifact, a fluke, or NGM playing around.

The SILVER PRICE low came at 2680.5, same as yesterday's, but the high reached higher, to 2759.5. Like it's big brother, silver got slapped around by the Invisible Hand today. Closed slap on the 20 day moving average (2729c).

Today's markets merely moved sideways and changed nothing. SILVER and GOLD are marching in place through the summer doldrums. Buy the drops.

I may be the king fool of all fools, but because I am I have installed a very, very sensitive hogwash meter so I'm not so easily gulled. Well, I was a-minding my own business today, just leaned back and taking it easy when that hogwash meter started squawking and blowing and the needle pushed clean over past the red. "Man!" I thought, "the presidential campaign must be closing in on Tennessee!"

I should have known better, it was just a Bernanke alert. He was blowing smoke to the congress today, and they were all a-posing and a-posturing along with him as if something they did or he said actually made a difference, when they all know 'tain't nothing in the world but Grade A ain't fit for nothing but hogs hogwash.

Today Bernanke the Bloviator warned 'em we were sure nuff in trouble if congress doesn't do something to dodge a budget crisis. Yep, unless congress lowers taxes and increases spending, why, the whole blessed economy will fall over the cliff into a recession. Boss Bloviator didn't bother to explain how we would be able to tell the recession then from the one we have now.

Cause I'm only a fool, I have to make lists so I can remember things. Yesterday, remember, I gave y'all a list of Verities, and remember Rules 2 and 4:

"Second, they care not a hoot for the long run. Like the pseudo-economist Keynes said, "In the long run we're all dead." All they care about is keeping the system running until they get off at 5:00 p.m. Permanent reforms, economic justice, equal opportunity, debt relief, rule of law, all these are just labels to make the public drink the jugs of hogwash.

"Fourth, and most important for y'all to understand because it determines the future, massive debt and government deficit spending are not an accident, not an excess of the system, but as organic to it as blood to the human body. Therefore, though they may criticize borrowing and spending, they cannot stop it because they must INFLATE OR DIE. That is the system's nature, and that is why silver and gold offer such promise. They will keep inflating, and inflating drives silver and gold up."

Fool that I am, I rest my case. And I dialed down the sensitivity on my hogwash meter. Living only 750 miles from Washington, it'll drive me crazy otherwise.

Markets today brought no great surprises. Dollar index continued to erode, down 13.1 basis points (0.17%) to 83.024, but still hanging on by its toes to that 83 mark. Euro took advantage of the dollar's head cold to creep up 0.17% to $1.2292, nothing to write to Brussels about. Yen gave back some of yesterday's gains falling 0.25% to 126.48 cents/100 yen (Y79.06/US$1). Dropped back below the 200 DMA, so that might put the finish to its climb.

Stocks bounced up off the bottom boundary of their rising wedge, but this changeth not the picture. Dow gained 0.62% to 12,805.54 (78.33 points) and the S&P500 gained 0.74% (10.03 points) to 1,363.67. A fall lieth in the future.

I read a couple of articles that examined a New York Fed study that implied the S&P500 would be 50% lower [sic] were it not for the Fed's actions. Also said that the bulk of stock returns for more than a decade have come from Fed actions. Y'all can read 'em at http://www.cnbc.com/id/48165921?__source=yahoonewsandpar=yahoonews or http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/07/the-puzzling-pre-fomc-announcement-drift.html. Better take a couple of No-Doz or drink a quart of coffee before y'all attempt that second one.

Ask yourself: what does that say about the US economy? The US stock market? The limits of Fed or government action? Ain't no markets, ain't no economy, just a cardboard cutout held up by printing money.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, July 16, 2012

The Gold Price will not Drop to Lower Lows Physical Demand Too Strong

Gold Price Close Today : 1591.20
Change : -0.40 or -0.03%

Silver Price Close Today : 2729.70
Change : -4.7 or -0.17%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.292
Change : 0.086 or 0.15%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01715
Change : -0.000025 or -0.15%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1414.80
Change : -17.70 or -1.24%

Palladium Price Close Today : 577.55
Change : -7.80 or -1.33%

S&P 500 : 1,353.64
Change : -3.14 or -0.23%

Dow In GOLD$ : $165.34
Change : $ (0.59) or -0.36%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.998
Change : -0.029 or -0.36%

Dow in SILVER oz : 466.25
Change : -1.02 or -0.22%

Dow Industrial : 12,727.21
Change : -49.88 or -0.39%

US Dollar Index : 83.09
Change : -0.254 or -0.30%

The silver and GOLD PRICE are range bound at their slow, low season, so most trading we are witnessing amounts to no more than white noise, meaningless static, UNLESS they close outside that range. Bottom of that range for the SILVER PRICE is 2600c, top is 2800c; for the GOLD PRICE, $1,550 and $1,640. While you're waiting, it's a good idea to buy whenever they fall toward those bottom boundaries.

Today GOLD lost a meaningless 40c to close Comex at $1,591.20. Meaningless, except that a stall means something, too. Gold did close above its 20 DMA ($1,588.42) today and smack on its 50 DMA ($1,590.19). That rouses hope, but decides nothing.

Most likely Gold is headed for that triangle's top boundary line, today about $1,620, and may bounce off that for another round trip. Won't know till it gets there and shows us.

Pay attention here: I'm not blackening gold or its prospects, merely pointing out what "range-bound" means.

The SILVER PRICE eked out a 4.7c loss today to close 2729.7 cents. I'm encouraged that's above 2700c, and it's bumping up against the 20 DMA (2737c).

One more reason arguing silver and gold will not drop to lower lows is the high premiums on US 90% silver coin and on Krugerrands and American Eagles. These subtle but eloquent clues point to strong physical demand.

Y'all bridle your impatience. It's summer, and summer'll be over soon enough. Gold and silver are doing just fine, thank you very much, still in a bull market.

While markets are becalmed in the summer doldrums I'd like to re-visit some eternal verities. Well, not eternal, really, but rock-bottom, never-going-to-go-away, understand- this-first-or-understand-nothing verities of the fascist economic and political system we live under. (Don't y'all bother writing me a bunch of smoking emails about the word "fascist." I am using the word technically because it precisely describes a system of "government-business partnership" run by government for benefit of big business, a form of socialism. Look it up.)

First, stability above all. Central bankers and governments above all are trying to keep everything from exploding into panic and collapsing.

Second, they care not a hoot for the long run. Like the pseudo-economist Keynes said, "In the long run we're all dead." All they care about is keeping the system running until they get off at 5:00 p.m. Permanent reforms, economic justice, equal opportunity, debt relief, rule of law, all these are just labels to make the public drink the jugs of hogwash.

Third, not a single central banker, US or otherwise, wants to see the dollar gain or lose drastically against its own currency. When a currency rises against others, that raises the price of its exports and lowers internal economic activity. If a currency drops too fast, it might spark a panic out of the currency. Nope, they want those exchange rates steady within a tight band, and they do manipulate currency markets to keep them there.

Fourth, and most important for y'all to understand because it determines the future, massive debt and government deficit spending are not an accident, not an excess of the system, but as organic to it as blood to the human body. Therefore, though they may criticize borrowing and spending, they cannot stop it because they must INFLATE OR DIE. That is the system's nature, and that is why silver and gold offer such promise. They will keep inflating, and inflating drives silver and gold up.

Fifth, no market runs up or down forever. At some point silver and gold will peak and you must sell them. Speaking of that, the yield on US treasury debt is now about lower than it was in the Great Depression. That can't persist forever, although I can't foretell when it will turn. Probably not too long, and when that yield starts rising (and bonds start dropping), silver and gold will become the last safe haven standing, and profit accordingly.

Today the US Dollar Index, in danger of rallying away toward 90, was whacked on the head by an invisible hand holding an invisible ball peen hammer. Generally speaking, in today's world the invisible hand is always Nice Government Men acting in your benefit. What?! You don't want them acting in your benefit? You think it's to your detriment instead? Hoi polloi! Peasant! What do you know about really big stuff?

Whoops, got carried away. Anyhow, the Dollar index fell 0.33% or 25.4 basis points to 83.094. While 83 is the looming mile marker, that was a bad tumble technically, bouncing off the top boundary of a trading channel (kick 'em while they're down, is the NGM's motto), which suggests a fall to the bottom boundary about 79.50. Crossing the last low at 81.52 would put that target in gear.

Today's dollar weakness boosted the euro 0.22% to $1.2276. At least that gets it up off Friday's $1.2163 low, lowest prices since June 2010. NGM may slow, but will not stop, the euro's shrinking to $1.2000 or lower.

Proving the utter looneydom of currency markets, the yen today, scabbiest, most scrofulous, and weakest of all fiat currencies, mounted 0.4% to 126.83c/Y100 (Y78.85/US$1). That pokes its head above the 200 day moving average (126.74) and promises to rally to the downtrend line at 128. Go figure.

Stocks today never even crawled as high as unchanged. After Friday's 1.6%+ rises, indices rolled over today. Dow paid back 49.88 (0.4%) to 12,727.21 and the S&P500 coughed up 3.14 (0.23%) top 1,353.64.

From here the S&P500 could rally to 1,380 and Dow to 13,000 and the moves would mean nothing. At those levels the necklines of completed head and shoulders formations linger above, waiting to knock stock indices flat every time they draw near.

Let me make this clear about stocks. They represent a diverse cosmos of undertakings, and even when the economy languishes in depression, somebody will be making money. However, the indices average the performance of many stocks. As the economy prospers or sickens, those indices wax or wane. Those indices, along with the economy, entered a WANING phase in 2000, a primary downtrend, a long term bear market lasting 15 to 20 years. Therefore if you stick with the conventional diversification wisdom and buy broad mutual funds or index funds, you will lose your shirt, your belt, and your underwear. Either pick individual stocks in waxing industries (gold mining, for example, or oil exploration) or stay away from stocks altogether. And since most folks have neither patience, temperament, nor skill to pick individual stocks, best for most to stay away.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.