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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

If the Gold Price Closes Higher Tomorrow Stop Waiting and Buy

Gold Price Close Today : 1717.50
Change : 7.00 or 0.41%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.288
Change : 0.500 or 1.57%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.193
Change : -0.616 or -1.15%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01880
Change : 0.000215 or 1.16%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1576.00
Change : 23.40 or 1.51%

Palladium Price Close Today : 609.00
Change : 13.65 or 2.29%

S&P 500 : 1,412.16
Change : 0.22 or 0.02%

Dow In GOLD$ : $157.63
Change : $ (0.76) or -0.48%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.625
Change : -0.037 or -0.48%

Dow in SILVER oz : 405.61
Change : -6.72 or -1.63%

Dow Industrial : 13,096.46
Change : -10.75 or -0.08%

US Dollar Index : 79.91
Change : 0.021 or 0.03%

Look at the GOLD PRICE and silver price charts and report honestly what you see there: a breakout. Yes, a one-day breakout only. Yes, through the downtrend line only and not above lateral support, but it's plain as a wart on your nose.

The SILVER PRICE gobbled up 50 cents to close at 3228.8c, well above that 3200c blockade. Needs now to confirm the upturn by closing higher than 3250c.

The GOLD PRICE pulled in $7 to close at $1,717.50. Now it needs to confirm with a close above $1,725.

If we get the second day's close tomorrow above today's closes, the case is pretty well made that the correction has ended. Translation: if they close higher tomorrow, STOP WAITING and BUY.

One of the highest hurdles trying to read charts is to believe what your eyes see, instead of what your mind wants to see. Today I will ruthlessly talk about what I see.

The dollar index since mid-September has left behind a series of slightly higher lows and higher highs. Looks sloppy, and has been blocked by the 200 day moving average (80.63), but still looks like a market that is turning up. MACD indicator says the same, and it stands above its 20 DMA (79.72). Today it backed off 2.1 basis points to 79.906, but remains above 79.90 and the 20 DMA.

It would be an arrogant error to write the dollar off unless it closes below the last low at 78.93. Most likely next move is up, not down.

Euro is vibrating like a tuning fork but with less purpose and meaning. 20 DMA is $1.2977, and it buzzed back and forth across that line today but closed beneath it at $1.2958, although it rose 0.15%. Trend is down, if you believe the momentum indicators and chart.

Yen lost another 0.2% today to 125.31 cents and stands below its 200 DMA (125.95c). I wouldn't trade that nasty thing with your money. Locked in a downtrend.

Today's score: US$1 = Y79.80 = E0.7717.

Stocks looked sorry as gully dirt today. Every index except the S&P500 and Russell 2000 fell, and those two didn't rise enough to talk about.

S&P500 rose 0.22 (0.2%) to 1,412.16. Dow fell 10.75 (0.08%) to 13,096.46. Day's trading for both was weak as the Democratic Party Platform or Republican pacificism. Started the day off with a little rise, fell below unchanged by 11:00, then struggled underwater until day's end. Not the sort of result that builds confidence.

Look at that chart and admit what you see. Since September the Dow has rolled over, broken support of the rising wedge, traded up for the kiss good-bye, fallen off a cliff in what looks like a 3-wave, and is fixing to break down through its 200 DMA (12,979). Momentum indicators point straight down as a well pipe. Weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth in store here.

I'm sorry but I will not be sending a commentary tomorrow (Thursday) or Friday, because I will be in Colorado attending my daughter-in-law's funeral. God willing I'll return on Monday, 5 November.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Gold Price Must Close Above $1,725 to Confirm a Change Upward New York Markets Still Closed

Gold Price Close Today : 1710.50
Change : 2.80 or 0.16%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.788
Change : 0.062 or 0.20%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.810
Change : -0.017 or -0.03%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01858
Change : 0.000006 or 0.03%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1552.60
Change : 19.70 or 1.29%

Palladium Price Close Today : 595.35
Change : 6.40 or 1.09%

S&P 500 : 1,411.94
Change : -1.03 or -0.07%

Dow In GOLD$ : $158.40
Change : $ (0.20) or -0.13%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.663
Change : -0.010 or -0.13%

Dow in SILVER oz : 412.33
Change : -0.69 or -0.17%

Dow Industrial : 13,107.21
Change : 3.53 or 0.03%

US Dollar Index : 79.94
Change : -0.292 or -0.36%

Also, in case some of y'all record prices, they changed yesterday's settlements to GOLD PRICE down $3.20 at $1,707.70; silver down 28.4c at 3172.6c; platinum down 12.40 at $1,532.90, and palladium down $7.45 to $588.95. Remember, those are YESTERDAY'S closes.

Yet again today Hurricane Sandy closed down New York markets, first time that's happened since the 1888 blizzard. Yet the CME Globex computerized market is running, but trading has been light. Stock markets remained closed.

So what little drop of information can we squeeze out of today's trading? The SILVER PRICE rose 6.2 cents to 3178.8c while the GOLD PRICE rose $2.80 to $1,710.50. Platinum had a good day, rising $19.70 to $1,552.60. Palladium was pretty peppy, too, up $6.40 to $595.35.

This offers the appearance that it's the shorts who got flooded out. After all, when SOMEbody was taken out of the game, prices rose. Now I wouldn't swing over hell using THAT for a rope, but it's a plausible guess.

Range on the SILVER PRICE today was 3165 to 3212.4c, and that range has widened out (gone higher) since the afternoon Globex market opened. The GOLD PRICE is down $1.50, after a squeenchy daily range of $1,715 - $1,708.25. US dollar index today lost its grip above 80 and fell 29.2 basis points (0.38) to 79.939. No certain signal there yet.

Here's another little hint of strength in the market: the premiums on US 90% silver coin and Krugerrands have risen. Usually that presages higher prices.

Here are the bounds silver and gold face. Gold must close above $1,725, really $1,730 to confirm a change to upward. Silver needs to close above 3250c.

Underneath gold will signal lower prices by closing below $1,790. Silver below 3100c will beg for lower prices.

In truth, though, these partly open markets don't tell us much at all. Let's wait until they open fully and see what happens. By the way, gold above $1,725 would persuade me to buy.

Many of you sent condolences on the death of my daughter-in-law, and I deeply appreciate your generous sympathy and your prayers. Thank you. We have to fly to Colorado Thursday for the Saturday funeral, so I will not publish commentaries on those days. God willing, I will return on Monday, 5 November.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, October 29, 2012

The Gold Price Might Head Lower but Hurricane Sandy Has Closed Markets Reopening Wednesday

Gold Price Close Today : 1711.80
Change : 0.90 or 0.05%

Silver Price Close Today : 0.319
Change : -0.135 or -29.75%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 5370.353
Change : 1599.774 or 42.43%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.00019
Change : -0.000079 or -29.79%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1536.80
Change : -7.50 or -0.49%

Palladium Price Close Today : 591.70
Change : -3.90 or -0.65%

S&P 500 : 1,411.94
Change : -1.03 or -0.07%

Dow In GOLD$ : $158.28
Change : $ -0.02 or -0.02%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.657
Change : -0.001 or -0.02%

Dow in SILVER oz : 41,120.66
Change : 12,242.03 or 42.39%

Dow Industrial : 13,107.21
Change : 3.53 or 0.03%

US Dollar Index : 80.23
Change : 0.146 or 0.18%

Hurricane Sandy closed down things in New York, so the prices you see below for stocks are from Friday. They settled the Comex by averaging the prices from 9:14 a.m. through 9:15 a.m., so the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE don't represent anything really. Current prices are based on worldwide prices.

However, the dollar index rose today to 80.231, up 14.9 basis points. If it continues in that direction, we might yet see lower lows in the silver and GOLD PRICE. I will go ahead and buy at $1,690-ish, using that as a trigger to buy both silver and gold. Only reason I would not do that is if they were just waterfalling lower instead of inching down. If they did that, I'd just step back and wait to see where they settle.

Markets are supposed to be closed again tomorrow, so it will be Wednesday before we have a clue about further direction. Pray for those poor people in the path of the storm.

I have five sons and two daughters. Over the weekend the wife of the son who lives in Colorado died in a single car accident. She was 36. I would deeply appreciate your prayers for him and my family. We do not yet know when the funeral will take place between this week and next, but I want to let y'all know that here sometime soon I will be away for a few days.

Lord have mercy on us. Christ have mercy on us. Lord have mercy on us.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, October 26, 2012

The Gold Price Looks to have Almost Finished it's Correction I Will Likely Buy Gold Early Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1,710.90
Gold Price Close 19-Oct : 1,722.80
Change : -11.90 or -0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.01
Silver Price Close 19-Oct : 32.07
Change : -0.062 or -0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.447
Gold Silver Ratio 19-Oct : 53.715
Change : -0.27 or -0.5%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01871
Silver Gold Ratio 19-Oct : 0.01862
Change : 0.00009 or 0.5%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 158.37
Dow in Gold Dollars 19-Oct : $ 160.11
Change : $ (1.74) or -1.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.661
Dow in Gold Ounces 19-Oct : 7.745
Change : -0.08 or -1.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 409.46
Dow in Silver Ounces 19-Oct : 416.04
Change : -6.58 or -1.6%

Dow Industrial : 13,107.21
Dow Industrial 19-Oct : 13,343.51
Change : -236.30 or -1.8%

S&P 500 : 1,411.94
S&P 500 19-Oct : 1,433.19
Change : -21.25 or -1.5%

US Dollar Index : 80.043
US Dollar Index 19-Oct : 79.633
Change : 0.410 or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,544.80
Platinum Price Close 19-Oct : 1,613.00
Change : -68.20 or -4.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 595.70
Palladium Price Close 19-Oct : 623.30
Change : -27.60 or -4.4%

I'm re-thinking the silver and GOLD PRICE: they may have posted their lows this week at 3118.4 cents and $1,698. Possibility is great enough to tempt me to buy a little bit here. Note that the GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell from 53.715 to 53.418. Not big, but the right direction (down when silver and gold are rising) for higher silver and gold prices.

What's this meditation's other side? It's Friday, so people who were holding profitable short positions tend to close them out at the weekend. That might buoy up the market for one day alone. Also, the weekly silver and gold charts so the August breakout and peak, then a decline toward the downtrend line (which both metals broke in August). A kiss good-bye move might touch that downtrend line.

Palladium and platinum argue for an end to the decline. Palladium has given up most of what it has gained since July (from $556 to $705.8 and back to $586.65 three days ago). Platinum has given up a little more than 50% of the same crazed move ($1,378.50 to $1,734.50). Today it closed $1,544.3 just below its 200 DMA (1,552.86), frequent end target of a correction.

The GOLD PRICE today fell back $1.10 to $1,710.90. The SILVER PRICE frittered away 3.8 cents to 3201.1c. Thing that catches my eye is this: after the big losses of last week, this week they barely declined. At least the rate of fall is shrinking. There's a landing for silver and gold here somewhere.

Besides, metals have reached the point where downside risk has shrunk to manageable size. From 3201.1, even a fall to 3050c is only 4.5% From $1,710.90 to $1,650, 4.6%. Unless Monday shows a freefall, I will buy at least some silver below 3200c or gold below $1,700. A little anyway, just in case they might have finished their decline.

SILVER and GOLD are completing the correction of the August - September rally. Start nibbling at them, but give them a little time. Presidential election uncertainty still overhangs silver and gold as well as all markets, even though it won't make any difference to metals' inevitable and relentless bull market. Buy when everybody else's spine is turning to Jell-O.

As I said, I have to re-think this gold and silver thing. They may have bottomed this week. Stocks took a bad beating with a stout stick. Dollar index rose .05%, but didn't jump high enough over 80 to prove a rally. Platinum and palladium lost more than 4%. Euro and Yen both faded this week.

The treacherous US dollar index climbed from 79.633 to 80.043. At last, it has closed above 80, first hurdle of a dollar rally. However, today the dollar lunged to 80.27 only to be slapped back in a few hours to 79.923. Rest of the day leveled out, leaving behind a toppy formation that looks like a head and shoulders. Of course, that might also be a continuation pattern, too

My surprise dollar rally suspicion would be gainsaid next week if the dollar index closes below 79.70. Really, it ought to advance above today's high, 80.27, by Tuesday. Otherwise it will just be spinning tires and wasting buying power and attention.

Whether the dollar rallies or not, this week the yen and euro fainted. Euro relentlessly slid this week, stopping today at $1.2938 (US$1= E0.7729). Momentum is down: euro sank below the 20 DMA ($1.2974) and stands only a few points above the 200 DMA at 128.36. Euro turns smartly down should it break that 200 DMA.

Yen has played a jerky game this week. Gapped down, looked like it had found its feet, then gapped down again to a low at 124.48 cents per 100 yen (US$1 = Y79.68). About to drop further, right? Nope, turned smack around and rose 0.82% to close today at 125.56, filling the gap and reaching for the 200 DMA at 125.97. Direction is firmly down as long as the yen remains below that 200 DMA.

Right now, the Japanese Nice Government Men are winning the Race To Depreciate, the euro is running second while the dollar keeps gaining weight. Ben Bernanke won't enjoy his martini tonight.

Stocks are badly confused. Today the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, and midget Nasdaq indices, along with the Dow industrials, all rose minutely. The broader S&P500 and Russell 2000 both dropped a wee bit.

Dow had another raggedy day, spent almost all the day deeply under water, as low at 13,046, then found friends to buy about 1:30, and fluttered around unchanged, climbed a little, but closed only 3.53 (0.03%) higher at 13,107.21. S&P 500 ran about the same, but when the bell rang it was 1.02 lower (0.07%) at 1,411.94.

I'm not at home in Tennessee, but I got a text from my daughter that the hard copies of At Home in Dogwood Mudhole have arrived from the printer. They'll begin shipping on Monday. I appreciate y'all's patience.

You can still buy At Home in Dogwood Mudhole at http://store.the-moneychanger.com/products/at-home-in-dogwood-mudhole-vol1 in hard copy (yes, I'll still autograph it if you order by Monday, 29 October). Or you can download it instantly (once you pay for it, of course) in PDF, Kindle, or ePub format.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, October 25, 2012

Has the Gold Price Correction Ended? Gold Clawed Back $11.50 Closing at $1,712

Gold Price Close Today : 1712.00
Change : 11.50 or 0.68%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.049
Change : 0.454 or 1.44%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.418
Change : -0.404 or -0.75%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01872
Change : 0.000140 or 0.76%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1567.10
Change : 6.90 or 0.44%

Palladium Price Close Today : 604.80
Change : 11.75 or 1.98%

S&P 500 : 1,412.97
Change : 4.22 or 0.30%

Dow In GOLD$ : $158.22
Change : $ (0.73) or -0.46%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.654
Change : -0.035 or -0.46%

Dow in SILVER oz : 408.86
Change : -5.04 or -1.22%

Dow Industrial : 13,103.68
Change : 26.34 or 0.20%

US Dollar Index : 80.03
Change : 0.075 or 0.09%

The GOLD PRICE clawed back $11.50 to close $1,712. Toughest job in the world is calling thing by their real name -- admitting what your eyes see and your ears hear. The SILVER PRICE today regained 45.4 cents to close above 3200 at 3204.9c.

I know this soundeth sanguine, but 'tain't. They have only risen to the ruling downtrend line, and until they close ABOVE that downtrend line and confirm intentions by doing it twice, they are still obeying that downtrend line, no matter what I would like em to do.

I remind y'all, the SILVER and GOLD PRICE remain in a primary Uptrend, a BULL market. You are watching a mere normal correction in that bull market. Keep watching for that place to buy.

Today was Dead Cat Thursday, when most markets bounced no matter how moribund they might be.

All but the US dollar index, which rose a determined 7.5 basis points to elbow its way through that 80.00 resistance and close at 80.034.

US dollar is still nursing a rally, and fended off an attack today that drove it down to 79.70. It wheeled and closed above 80. Now it's time to spit or chew: dollar index has posted two tops about the same place yesterday and today. Tomorrow it must advance.

Currencies: US$1.00 = Y80.30 = E0.7732

Whoa! Just when I thought the yen had finished falling, it found a manhole cover, dragged it off, and jumped down the hole. Lost 0.64% today, gapped down, and closed at 124.54 cents. If it doesn't stop at the June low (124.12), it could plunge to 119.

Euro looked only slightly better. Range widened out and it lost 0.28% to close at $1.2934, now below the $1.2970 twenty day moving average. It's only hovering above its 200 DMA ($1.2826). One piece of really bad news would send the euro tailspinning toward $1.2600.

Stocks wound up with tiny gains after a very raggedy day. Dow gained 0.2% or 26.34 points to 13,103.68. S&P50 gained 4.22 to 1,412.97.

Not a step of this bodes well for stocks. They have broken down through the neckline of that head and shoulders that they painted earlier in the year, formed a fatal rising wedge, fell down out of that, and confirmed their love of gravity by closing below the 20 and 50 day moving averages, and if the 200 DMA was a pretty girl, the Dow'd be close enough to steal a kiss (12,972.57).

Stocks need some magic to pull out of this nosedive, and I think Swami Ben is all out of tricks. But what good is the opinion of a natural born fool from Tennessee?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, October 24, 2012

The Gold Price Continued it's Correction but is Slowing Silver Also Continues to Fall

Gold Price Close Today : 1708.30
Change : -16.80 or -0.97%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.768
Change : -0.459 or -1.42%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.774
Change : 0.245 or 0.46%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01860
Change : -0.000085 or -0.45%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1560.20
Change : -12.90 or -0.82%

Palladium Price Close Today : 593.05
Change : -1.10 or -0.19%

S&P 500 : 1,408.75
Change : -4.46 or -0.32%

Dow In GOLD$ : $158.25
Change : $ 1.26 or 0.80%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.655
Change : 0.061 or 0.80%

Dow in SILVER oz : 411.65
Change : 5.08 or 1.25%

Dow Industrial : 13,077.34
Change : -25.19 or -0.19%

US Dollar Index : 79.91
Change : -0.048 or -0.06%

The GOLD PRICE closed today at $1,700.50, $7.50 lower than yesterday. Silver followed right along, losing 17.5 cents to 3159.5c.

Although the GOLD PRICE is declining less and more slowly every day, sellers continue to batter it relentlessly. This decline is cooked into the market's mind, otherwise today's FOMC announcement -- "We're still going to keep on inflating!" would have kicked gold into high gear.

By "cooked in the market's mind" I mean that rallies and declines, the outcome of thousands of participants, just have to work through the minds of all those people. And humans are herd animals, but who knows why a herd of wildebeests or a flock of blackbirds or a school of salmon all wheel right or left at once in perfect unison? Nobody, but they do. So we have to patiently wait until markets reach the inevitable excess in one direction before they turn and go the other. It's a mystery, like why any woman would every love any man, or why my wife loves me -- but she does.

The GOLD PRICE decline is decelerating, but as it stands below its 20 DMA ($1,757.12) and 50 DMA ($1,726) momentum is dragging it down.

Where might it halt? Just below $1,700, about $1,690, there was a tussle on the way up. Then comes $1,680, where over the past 16 months many other battles have been fought. Below that the 150 DMA ($1,650) and 200 DMA ($1,663.80) are waiting to catch gold. That level also marks a 61.8% correction.

RSI and MACD indicators have dived deep, but have not yet signalled an upturn.

For those outraged by silver's fall, I'd remind y'all that it is up 21% from its July 2610c low. All things considered, not so terrible.

For the SILVER PRICE 3200 cents has become a portal barred and locked. Today's low came at 3153c. Silver has already fallen below its milestone 300 DMA (3197c). Don't panic, a return for a last kiss good-bye is frequent. 200 DMA stands beneath to catch silver at 3098c. Beneath that the uptrend line from the July and August lows stand about 2950. And there's more support from the summer highs around 2840c.

Most of all, SILVER IS IN A BULL MARKET. In bull markets, corrections always eventually resolve by turning up. Same holds for gold.

I know waiting through these corrections is almost as much fun as wearing towsack underwear, but it shouldn't last much longer now. Better yet, we are going to get an opportunity to buy much more silver and gold, more cheaply.

Surprise, surprise: the world's still going to hell in a handbasket, and the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee did nothing to stop its slide. They're just going to keep on pouring voltage to the printing machines.

I'm not sure exactly where the US dollar index closed but right now it's trading 4.8 basis points lower than this time yesterday, at 79.912. High today was 80.151, with a much higher low at 79.82. Dollar is tugging at the leash to go higher.

Currencies: US$1.00 = Y79.80 = E0.7707.

Euro looks like too-old baloney in the meat cooler, with that greenish glaze on it. Closed today at $1.2975, down 0.8%. No significant move, but traded below its 20 DMA (now 129.69) most of the day, then closed not far above. Not optimistic, when the trend is down.

After a nasty plunge through most of October, the Yen appears to have hit pavement. Today it gained 0.8% to to 125.31 cents per 100 yen.

None of these currency charts are artifacts of nature. They all bear the scars of frequent government interventions. Things would probably be worse, but the US presidential election keeps enough uncertainty beclouding markets that few are brave enough to take large new positions. Safer to sit it out and see who wins.

I know it makes y'all REALLY mad for me to say it makes no difference who wins, and I have received more than one smoking, glowing email to that effect. Friends, I would it were no so, but 'tis, and my lying about it won't change it a whit. For instance, if Mitt with Grit got elected, will he abolish the Federal Reserve? Restore constitutional silver and gold money? Pull the troops back from the 700 imperial overseas bases? Reduce government spending during a depression when over 50% of U.S. income arises from state and local and federal government spending? Will he purge the tapeworm banks from the nations' bowels? He won't -- he won't be allowed to -- do anything more dramatic than changing the trim on the White House curtains. All of these things are built into the structure of the US economy, and it will dry up and blow away without that inflation and government spending and war. Changing the captain on the Titanic while it's sinking won't help a bit. I'm sorry if my telling you that offends you, but it is the truth learned the hard way. Politics is a false messiah.

Everybody has to learn that it's a delusion to believe the politicians are coming to save you or the country. Y'all had better be figuring how you can save yourself, your family, your neighbours  and your community. You rebuild your own community and the nation will take care of itself.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, October 23, 2012

The Gold Price Lost $16.80 Today Watch for Buying Opportunities Coming Soon

Gold Price Close Today : 1708.30
Change : (16.80) or -0.97%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.768
Change : (0.459) or -1.42%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.774
Change : 0.245 or 0.46%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01860
Change : -0.000085 or -0.45%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1573.10
Change : -36.60 or -2.27%

Palladium Price Close Today : 594.15
Change : -28.80 or -4.62%

S&P 500 : 1,413.11
Change : -20.71 or -1.44%

Dow In GOLD$ : $158.55
Change : $ (1.36) or -0.85%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.670
Change : -0.066 or -0.85%

Dow in SILVER oz : 412.44
Change : -1.68 or -0.40%

Dow Industrial : 13,102.53
Change : -243.36 or -1.82%

US Dollar Index : 79.96
Change : 0.520 or 0.65%

The waterfall is pouring over the cliff for the silver and GOLD PRICE. Gold today lost $16.80 to end at $1,708.30 and silver gave up 45.9 cents to 3176.8c.

That close leaves the GOLD PRICE below its 50 DMA ($1,724) and therefore (as the 50 DMA is often the target of gold corrections) rings the bell to remind us an opportunity to buy is coming soon. Might be here already. I'd rather give it a day or two to see where it will settle. $1,690-ish could catch gold, or $1,650 - $1,660. I remind y'all and myself not to allow the better to become the enemy of the good. Somewhere here the market is handing you a sweet chance to buy cheap gold and silver. Don't get greedy. Bulls get rich, and bears get rich, but pigs get slaughtered.

The SILVER PRICE sank below its 300 DMA (3200c) today as we have so long awaited. Just below us at 3097c lies the 200 DMA, with lateral support at 3050c. I think it will stop between here and there. Today I was reading some fellow who believes it might revisit that 2650c line, but I have to doubt that. Of course, I'm only a natural born fool from Tennessee, and nobody is paying me the big bucks to prognosticate for 'em, but I have to doubt silver will fall that low.

This was the day the stock market broke. Dow smashed support at 13,250 and fell another 150 points. Has lost about 500 points in three days. Closed today down 243.36 (1.86%) while the S&P500 puked back 20.71 (1.44%) to 1,413,11.

What might break stocks' fall? The 200 day moving average at 12,966? The lateral support that lurketh there as well? The FOMC committee's announcement tomorrow? If the Dow breaks that 200 DMA, don't count on seeing higher prices for, Oh, six or eight years.

Currencies: US$1.00 = Y79.83 = E0.7703.

Euro gapped down today and lost 0.62% to end at $1.2982. Didn't close below its 20 DMA, first tripwire proving a reversal, but sure punched a big hole in it. A close below $1.2900 puts gravity in the driver's seat.

Yen probably completed its plunge today, having left behind a runaway gap above and yesterday an exhaustion gap. Rose 0.16% today to 125.27 cents per hundred yen. Ought to trade sidewise and higher for a few days at the least.

US dollar index was pounding and hammering on that 80.00 door today. High was 80.062, but the buck couldn't quite close at that lofty spot, so ended at 79.957, up 0.52%. I keep asking myself, "What does the dollar market know that I don't know? What is it foreseeing?" Only answer I get is, "A more costly dollar," for the nonce at least.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, October 22, 2012

The Gold Price Traded in a Narrow Range Today Bumping Against the Downtrend Line Must Close Above $1,740

Gold Price Close Today : 1725.10
Change : 2.30 or 0.13%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.25
Change : 0.154 or 0.05%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 5.354
Change : 0.005 or 0.09%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.18679
Change : -0.000160 or -0.09%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1609.70
Change : -3.30 or -0.20%

Palladium Price Close Today : 622.95
Change : -0.35 or -0.06%

S&P 500 : 1,433.76
Change : 0.57 or 0.04%

Dow In GOLD$ : $159.92
Change : $ (0.17) or -0.11%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.736
Change : -0.008 or -0.11%

Dow in SILVER oz : 41.42
Change : -0.01 or -0.03%

Dow Industrial : 13,345.74
Change : 2.23 or 0.02%

US Dollar Index : 79.62
Change : 0.045 or 0.06%

The GOLD PRICE traded in a narrow range today between $1,721.20 and $1,728.80, closing higher $2.30 at $1,725.10. The SILVER PRICE eased 15.4 cents higher to 3222.7c in a narrow range from 3240.8c to 3203c.

On both metals' charts they merely bumped up against the downtrend line today. This changeth naught. To reverse this downtrend the GOLD PRICE needs to close above $1,740. Otherwise we will see lower prices still.

Looks like the Japanese Nice Government Men got plenty fed up with trying to run an export-led economy with a rising currency. It dropped 0.789% today to 125.12 cents per hundred yen, gapping down.

The euro rose 0.29% today to $1.3060. Odd, since the US dollar index ALSO rose, 0.06% (4.5 basis points) to 79.611. That puts currencies at US$1 = Y79.92=E0.7657.

Critical point to note is that the US Dollar Index stayed above the 79.40 lip of that rounding bottom it left last week, which positions it to rally. Yes, I know I'm anticipating, but nothing else would catch the market with more surprise. Dollar is blocked by 79.68, so watch it to break through that number.

Oh, mercy! There's a Federal Open Market Committee this week. No telling how much damage those goofs will do this time.

For stocks the day just deteriorated as it wore on. sinking deeper and deeper. About 3:30 p.m. "friends" (Wink! Wink! Nice Government Men on the Plunge Protection Team) entered the market to buy enough to bring the Dow and S&P500 up to "higher by a gnat's eyebrow." Dow gained -- hold your breath! -- 2.23 to close 13,345.74. S&P500 won 0.57 to 1,433.76.

Stocks are in a parlous position. Dow today, trading BELOW its 50 DMA (13,355.6) reached down and touched the support line formed by the March thru May head and shoulder's neckline. Below that lies about the same support as what stands under you when your 747 Jumbo Jet is flying at 25,000 feet.

In the thrilling world of bank supervision, not much happens. Last year, however, the exciting fellows charged with structuring the Basel III requirements for banks proposed moving gold from a Tier 3 to a Tier 1 asset on the same footing with cash. US Federal Reserve in June circulated a memo to banks asking what they thought about that. Far as I know, this hasn't been put into effect yet in the US, but clearly it would bring gold back into the monetary system through the back door.

A friend wrote in response to my Friday remarks about the trend of de-centralization taking over the world. He objected to my claim that young people had already adopted a decentralizing mind, pointing to the Occupy people and others. First, there aren't many of them, but second, when the Great Central Power fails to come through with a cushy lifetime sinecure that recognizes their self-assessed worth, they will not be happy. Government failure to deliver on its promises will sour millions of centralization's partisans. When they have to root, hog, or die, they'll change their minds pretty fast.

I have to travel down to Florida this week. It's a rotten assignment, but somebody has to do it. I will try to send daily commentaries most days, but don't be surprised if my sunburn intervenes one of those days. I appreciate y'all's forgiving indulgence.

Y'all test how much hope you still place in politics: don't watch the presidential debate tonight. Do something meaningful instead, like re-arranging your sock drawer.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, October 19, 2012

The Gold Price Gave Back $35.20 this Week How Far Will it Fall?

Gold Price Close Today : 1,722.80
Gold Price Close 12-Oct : 1,758.00
Change : -35.20 or -2.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.07
Silver Price Close 12-Oct : 33.63
Change : -1.56 or -4.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.715
Gold Silver Ratio 12-Oct : 52.270
Change : 1.44 or 2.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01862
Silver Gold Ratio 12-Oct : 0.01913
Change : -0.00051 or -2.7%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 160.11
Dow in Gold Dollars 12-Oct : $ 156.73
Change : $ 3.38 or 2.2%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.745
Dow in Gold Ounces 12-Oct : 7.582
Change : 0.16 or 2.2%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 416.04
Dow in Silver Ounces 12-Oct : 396.30
Change : 19.73 or 5.0%

Dow Industrial : 13,343.51
Dow Industrial 12-Oct : 13,328.85
Change : 14.66 or 0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,433.19
S&P 500 12-Oct : 1,428.59
Change : 4.60 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index : 79.633
US Dollar Index 12-Oct : 79.689
Change : -0.056 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,613.00
Platinum Price Close 12-Oct : 1,657.10
Change : -44.10 or -2.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 623.30
Palladium Price Close 12-Oct : 637.95
Change : -14.65 or -2.3%

The GOLD PRICE cascaded down $20.50 to $1,722.80 while silver waterfalled 76.5 cents to 3207.3c. Ranges were $1,738.9 - $1,715.89 and 3276.5c - 3192c.

Ponder the GOLD/SILVER RATIO When metals are rallying, it falls (because silver usually outperforms gold) and when they are correcting it rises. Right now, it's rising. Closed last week at 52.270 but today at 53.715, up 2.8%. Today it filled the gap left behind on the way down, and nearly closed above its 200 DMA. I haven't mentioned it before, but another gap stands at the beginning of the August rally, when the ratio leapt from 57 to 56.5. Yes, it is possible that gap, too, might be filled. $1650 gold at a 57:1 ratio puts silver at 2895 cents. Not predicting, just mathematicizing.

The GOLD PRICE has now touched its 50 DMA ($1,720 today) which certainly MIGHT fulfill a correction target. A 38.2% correction would end about $1,718, a 50% about $1,693. Yet below that the 150 and 200 DMAs stand at $1,648.52 and $1,662.39, along with lateral support smeared from $1,650 to to $1,680.

Confused markets don't rise, and now bewilderment beclouds the horizon: currency turmoil, weak dollar/strong dollar, presidential election. That sky will clear, but meanwhile the storm.

The SILVER PRICE fell through its 50 DMA (3246c) today to its 300 DMA (3205c), but closed barely above that at 3207.3c. The 300 Day Moving Average acts for silver as the 200 DMA acts in other markets. After breaking above the 300 in September's first days, it was to be expected silver would return for a last kiss good-bye. That's how it's behaved before during this bull market.

The 200 DMA stands beneath at 3094c, and that's an often seen target of corrections. Today's close fulfilled a 38.2% correction, and 3112c will fulfill a 50%. Of course, volatile silver often overshoots, so don't overlook the 61.8% correction to 3013c. If all also fails, there's a floor at 2840c.

Whoa! Put that pistol down. I'm only the messenger. Besides, it's not enough to get bothered about. This correction won't last much longer than the election, and even in the unlikely event Romney wins, will reverse by endo-November latest.

What do you call a dinosaur with an extensive vocabulary? A thesaurus.

Last week's confusion broke this week. Stocks tried to rally, but failed wretchedly. Dollar index probed lower, but climbed back up to unchanged. Metals took a beating all around, and silver took the worst bruising. Euro tried to climb but fell back with only 0.55% gain to its credit. Yen lost 1.1%, big move for a currency.

Once again European Union leaders have firmly decided to re-decide everything decided shortly before without taking any action, even the sort of goofy action you expect from statists and Keynesians and socialists. They can only make up their minds to consider and re-consider.

This equates to pure strychnine for markets, for all markets hate uncertainty. Thus even US stocks were kneecapped, the euro made no headway for the week, and the dollar begins to look not so bad after all. After all, it's late, and the bar is closing.

Let us stand back and take a long term view -- really long term, about 350 years or since 1650 when the centralizing trend really took hold in creating national states. Yes, there is a "primary trend" in society as well as markets.

That trend has been rolling over since about 1980. Conventional war's cost has made armies like those of the 1940s impossible -- witness the 4th generation guerilla warfare of the last 45 years. Viet Nam, Iraq, Kosovo, Afghanistan -- armor and paratroops won't work. Now the national state's economic system has begun irretrievably faltering. Worse yet, the ultimate centralization -- the empires into which the national states have been fondued -- are stumbling. Soviet Union's gone, USA is overstretched in 130 countries around the world and dead broke, European Union is flying apart of its own volition.

National states and empires have had passed their prime. The process of decentralization in human affairs, including the economic, began with the Viet Nam era and is proceeding rapidly. Even if growing popular opinion weren't on its side, centralization can no longer keeps its promises and will alienate even more. Ask anybody under 30 whether he believes centralized power is better than decentralized. They young have already decided. The future will be decentralized. Power will flow away from centers to the periphery, and not a moment too soon.

We are now in the worst turmoil, that change where the old is fighting not to give way to the new, and the new is not yet strong enough to take control. The future belongs not to empires, but to secession, to affinity tribes, to small nations. The giant national state is dead for another 300 years.

Meantime, while the elephants battle, we ants must hide.

Currencies today stand at US$1 = Y79.28 = E0.7678.

That lying US dollar index, like a trashy girl, lied about breaking down and turned around and gave us a big kiss. (I won't miss it when it's gone.) Didn't close the week higher, but cast dark cloudy doubt on any further fall. It closed 29 basis points higher today at 79.633. This left behind a rounding bottom Wednesday and Thursday, and victoriously pierced the 79.40 lip of that bowl. Unless it falls below that 79.40 next week, the dollar will climb.

Stocks simply collapsed today, sinking, sinking, sinking. Dow lost -- WHOA! -- 205.43 points (1.52%) and closed at 13,343.51. S&P500 shucked even more percentagewise, 1.66% or 24.15, ending at 1,433.19.

Friends, boys and girls, ladies and gentlemen, this dragged the Dow to a close beneath its 50 DMA (13,353), erasing the last five days' gains. If it continues to plunge, the next support stands at 13,250. A close below that pulls the trip rope on Madame Guillotine.

I got a note from the printer today that At Home in Dogwood Mudhole ought to ship on 24 October, which puts them here about the 29th. We'll start shipping then. Thanks very much for your orders and generous patience.

If you don't want to wait for a hard copy, the digital versions of At Home in Dogwood Mudhole are ready. You can purchase AHIDM in PDF, Kindle, or e-Pub format for $16.95 at http://store.the-moneychanger.com/products/at-home-in-dogwood-mudhole-vol1 I can't figure out how to autograph the durned thing, so it won't do you any good to ask. It has plumb defeated me.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, October 18, 2012

The Gold Price Lost $8.20 Closing at $1,743.30 Keep Watching for Great Buying Opportunities

Gold Price Close Today : 1743.30
Change : -8.20 or -0.47%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.838
Change : -0.359 or -1.08%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.088
Change : 0.327 or 0.62%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01884
Change : -0.000117 or -0.62%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1641.20
Change : -26.80 or -1.61%

Palladium Price Close Today : 647.50
Change : -6.20 or -0.95%

S&P 500 : 1,457.34
Change : -3.57 or -0.24%

Dow In GOLD$ : $160.66
Change : $ 0.67 or 0.42%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.772
Change : 0.033 or 0.42%

Dow in SILVER oz : 412.60
Change : 4.22 or 1.03%

Dow Industrial : 13,548.94
Change : -8.05 or -0.06%

US Dollar Index : 79.38
Change : 0.298 or 0.38%

Metals had a right bad day. The GOLD PRICE lost $8.20 of yesterday's $6.80 gain to leave it at $1,743.30. The SILVER PRICE also dug a deeper hole, losing 35.9 cents to 3283.2c. Platinum gave back $26.80 of the $25.30 it gained yesterday. Palladium coughed up $6.20 of yesterday's $14.45 gain.

You all can rant and throw rocks at me if you want, but all I see on that five day chart is gold and silver rolling over in rounding tops. If gold breaks $1,730 and silver and silver 3240c, the waterfall commences.

Of course, that is by no means a sure thing, but so saith the market today.

Be careful, keep watching, a great buying opportunity is near.

Since I'm nothing more than a natural born fool from Tennessee and not in the news business, I can do what they never can: admit that nothing much happened today. I don't even have to make a big deal out of same little mouse burp event or go searching around the globe for grisly dismemberments, murders, etc. I can just say, "Not much happened."

Let's look at the not much.

Currencies: $1.00 = Y79.26 = E0.7652.

Yen and euro continue to diverge. Both fell today by 0.4% (wonder why?) to 126.16 cents/Y100 and $1.3068/euro. Yen gapped down again and closed nearly plumb on its 200 DMA (126.11) while the euro again demonstrated that the September $1.3172 high makes the euro feel like Kryptonite makes Superman feel. Maybe it will continue higher, but my, O, my it looks green sick and trashy to me.

US dollar index surprised everybody, me included, by bouncing off 70 by 29.8 basis points and rising 0.38%. I'm tired of it lying to me. It might have made a bottom yesterday just below 79, as a kind of rounding bottom appears on the 5 day chart. HOWEVER, it must o'erleap 79.40 to prove it has turned around.

None of these currency antics did the metals or stocks any good. Dow stayed about as near flat as the top of my head all day, tried to push through 13,580 and got the snot slapped out of it instead and ended the day lower by 8.06 at 13,548.94. S&P500 lost 3.57 (0.24%) to 1,457.34.

I wish I was smart like them Wall Street fellers. (You got to be smart to mash your feet into them pointy-toed shoes.) I look at the stock chart and only see a broadening top, the harbinger of grief, pain, sorrow, and whopping loss. They see stocks going lots higher permanently. Clearly I AM a fool.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, October 17, 2012

The Gold Price Rose Again Can it Foretell Higher Prices by Closing Above $1,760 or Will the Correction Continue?

Gold Price Close Today : 1751.50
Change : 6.80 or 0.39%

Silver Price Close Today : 33.197
Change : 0.275 or 0.84%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.761
Change : -0.234 or -0.44%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01895
Change : 0.000084 or 0.44%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1668.00
Change : 11.40 or 0.69%

Palladium Price Close Today : 653.70
Change : 6.35 or 0.98%

S&P 500 : 1,460.91
Change : 5.99 or 0.41%

Dow In GOLD$ : $160.00
Change : $ (0.55) or -0.34%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.740
Change : -0.026 or -0.34%

Dow in SILVER oz : 408.38
Change : -3.25 or -0.79%

Dow Industrial : 13,557.00
Change : 5.22 or 0.04%

US Dollar Index : 79.02
Change : -0.205 or -0.26%

The silver and GOLD PRICE edged up once again today. Gold gained $6.80 to close at $1,751.50 and silver added 27.5c to close 3319.7c.

Gold has reached the support/resistance where it fell off before, $1,755. It is also about to bump forehead first into the downtrend line from the last top, so will meet opposition from two angles. Not promising.

However, if the GOLD PRICE can close above $1,760, I might change my mind. Right now, however, it appears lower prices are coming.

Charts for the SILVER PRICE are virtually identical with those Silver is hitting lateral resistance at 3335c and the sloping downtrend line about 3350c. Can this work out to the upside? Lo, 'tis doubtful. A close above 3400c would slay my doubts.

Before y'all wax cross with me, remember not to shoot the messenger. Corrections are uncomfortable for me, too, but better the painful truth than a buttery lie.

Lately I've been getting lots of questions about manipulation of silver and gold. No question in my mind that central banks and the US government manipulate the gold price through Wall Street agents. That's in the statute (Exchange Stabilization Fund in the 1934 Gold Reserve Act authorizes covert gold price manipulation by the US treasury), policy, and observed fact. Go see GATA's work at www.gata.org or Bill Murphy's www.lemetropole.com for all the proof any reasonable person might need.

Then I am asked, "But what good is technical analysis if the market is manipulated?" Plenty, because the manipulation has failed, is failing, and will fail. Typical of any government operation, the coalition has succeeded in suppressing the gold price from $252 to $1,750 and silver from $4.02 to $33. Almost as successful as Medicare, social security, and Amtrak.

Put yourself in the manipulators' shoes. They know they can't turn back the powerful tide of gold and silver's primary trend, because they are driven by monetary inflation and they're not about to stop that. Thus the best they can do is try to slow gold down, to harass, to dog, to badger, but no more. Hence, if you were manipulating, wouldn't you stand back when gold is screaming upward, accumulate short positions, then when it begins to weaken sell with both hands? Makes sense to me, but then, I'm only a natural born fool from Tennessee.

Everybody except the stock market optimists is laying low until after the US election. That doesn't make for very interesting markets.

Currencies today stand at US$1 = Y78.95 = E 0.7621.

Dollar index continued to slide today, down another 20.5 basis points (0.26%) to 79.016, crashing through its second line of defense support. Burden of proof now rests on the buck to prove it's not aiming to fall further, say, another 40 basis points anyway.

Yen and euro have taken different forks in the road. Yen gapped down two days ago, is below its 50 and 20 day moving averages, and dropped again today, -0.12%, to 126.57c. 200 DMA lurks only 43 basis points below at 126.13, and if the yen falls through that it will attract sellers like a pretty girl attracts invitations to dance.

Euro, on the other hand, has gapped up twice in the last two days. Added another 0.41% to $1.3122 today. Yet it hath not yet exceeded the September intraday high at 1.3172. Why, O, why am I so suspicious? Why do I suspect the Euros made a deal with the US administration to keep things as quiet as possible until after the election? Am I just mean, or insightful?

Stocks gained again today, the Dow lagging. Dow added only 5.22 (0.04%) to 13,557.00 while the S&P500 jumped 5.99 (0.41%) to 1,460.91.

Stocks are reaching for that place they stalled (13,660) earlier this month. If they can pass that, they'll make a new high and all the touts and sirens will be crowing, Dow will push toward 14,000, and the jubilating will be general. Of course, after Obama is re-elected, the gas will come out of that balloon.

Y'all have heard of "counter-cyclical" rallies? Well, this is a "counter-reality" rally.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, October 16, 2012

The Silver and Gold Price Remain in a Correction Despite this Gold Rose $8.70 Today to Close at $1,744.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1744.70
Change : 8.70 or 0.50%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.922
Change : 0.215 or 0.66%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.995
Change : -0.082 or -0.16%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01887
Change : 0.000029 or 0.16%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1657.10
Change : 11.40 or 0.69%

Palladium Price Close Today : 637.95
Change : 6.35 or 1.01%

S&P 500 : 1,454.92
Change : 14.79 or 1.03%

Dow In GOLD$ : $160.62
Change : $ 0.73 or 0.46%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.770
Change : 0.035 or 0.46%

Dow in SILVER oz : 411.77
Change : 1.19 or 0.29%

Dow Industrial : 13,556.37
Change : 127.55 or 0.95%

US Dollar Index : 79.32
Change : -0.445 or -0.56%

Today the GOLD PRICE rose $8.70 to $1,744.70. Silver rose also, 21.5 cents to 3292.2c, but without successfully penetrating 3300c.

'Twould be a mistake to view metals' bounce today as the bottom of this drop -- not enough time yet, not enough price. Minimum target is the 50 DMA at $1,712.64 for gold.

The GOLD PRICE made a new intraday low for the move yesterday at $1,729.70. Today's low hit only $1,736.46, while the high reached $1,748.20. About $1,755 it will meet resistance as determined as the Confederate line at Fredericksburg in 1862. For now, the momentum remains gravityward.

The SILVER PRICE pierced 3300c today and reached 3304c but fell back. This is neither zeal, nor enthusiasm, nor strength. More downside's a-coming.

If markets won't give you a philosophical and patient turn of mind, won't anything. We simply have to wait with longsuffering while this little correction plays itself out, biding our time until we buy again. Don't let the waiting rile you.

Don't y'all get tired of hogwash? I believe if I see one more news report that "the Euro crisis is solved because some German politician belched favorably toward a Spanish bailout" I am just going to turn in my keyboard and call it a career. I'm about to where I don't believe anybody in the world can count, or add, or subtract. America, Europe, Japan, China -- they're all flat busted. The borrowing-money-into- existence system, the borrowing-to-consume, the government-can- run-an-economy system is dead as a hammer, and ain't coming back.

That rotten US dollar is just like a trashy girl. She keeps on lying to you, and you just can't believe anybody could lie that much and that consistently. Now she's done it again.

Dollar dropped below that 79.50 I said yesterday it needed to hold. Well, I reckon I'm just like that sucker boyfriend that still wants to believe her. Last bottom was 79.10, so the dip today to 79.30 might not prove fatal to a rally. Worse, today's close at 79.319 (down 44.5 basis point or 0.57%) leaves the dollar looking up at its 20 DMA (now 79.61).

Currencies today stand at US$1 = Y78.88 = E 0.7660.

Think of the world as a rather large concentration camp where all the inmates are swapping rumors all the day long about the war finally being over, or an amnesty coming. That's what happening with the euro, Currency of Bums. Today it gapped up to $1.3055 (+0.84%) on rumors so flimsy a six year old wouldn't bite on 'em. All is illusion, wet cardboard waiting for some doubter to stick a finger thru it. In spite of today, the euro remains in a downtrend unless it can climb over 1.3100.

Yen keeps going out of this world backwards. Tumbled another 0.23% today to 126.78c.

If y'all go look at the Dow/Gold chart, it will become plain that stocks are rallying against gold, having gapped up through their 20 DMA two days ago. Target of this COUNTER-trend rally is at least the 200 DMA (7.80 oz), maybe higher before it plays out. Make this plain: stocks have more to rise, gold and silver further to fall.

Wall Street was enough to warm a banker's frozen heart today. Dow rose 127.55 (0.95%) to 13,556.37. S&P500 outran it, up 14.79 (1.03%) to 1,454.92.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, October 15, 2012

The Gold Price has Dropped and will Continue to Correct Watch for Your Chance to Buy at Reduced Prices

Gold Price Close Today : 1736.00
Change : (22.00) or -1.25%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.707
Change : (0.926) or -2.75%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.077
Change : 0.807 or 1.54%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01884
Change : -0.000291 or -1.52%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1631.30
Change : -25.80 or -1.56%

Palladium Price Close Today : 632.90
Change : -5.05 or -0.79%

S&P 500 : 1,440.11
Change : 11.52 or 0.81%

Dow In GOLD$ : $159.86
Change : $ 3.14 or 2.00%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.733
Change : 0.152 or 2.00%

Dow in SILVER oz : 410.45
Change : 14.15 or 3.57%

Dow Industrial : 13,424.53
Change : 95.68 or 0.72%

US Dollar Index : 79.76
Change : 0.075 or 0.09%

The GOLD PRICE barely gapped down today with a high at $1,751.85 versus Friday's low at $1,752.10. After Friday's $10.80 tumble, gold plunged another $22 today, closing at $1,736. Y'all will mark carefully that is lower than the last intraday low at $1,738.30, so constitutes a breakdown.

The GOLD PRICE has dropped out of that broadening top formation and should continue to sink rapidly toward $1,700 - $1,650 and the this little correction's end.

The SILVER PRICE topped Friday's 41.3 cent loss by dropping another 92.6 cents today and busting through 3300c. Closed at 3270.7c.

That pulled silver through the bottom of support in the broadening top pattern. It will fall to 3200c or even 3050c, probably in a scary waterfall.

Don't worry. Y'all knew this was coming. It's your chance to buy more silver and gold at reduced prices. Keep your eyes peeled, that's coming soon.

From Friday's 52.270 the GOLD/SILVER RATIO jumped to 53.077. Expect a rise to at least 54:1.

Y'all, we had one more great time at the Transformations Gathering this weekend. We had folks from so many different backgrounds and standpoints I was afraid there might be cuttings and shootings galore, but every one of them graciously laid all that aside in favour of a conversation about how we ought to live and build in a world gone crazy.

If we learned nothing else, we know we are not alone. Don't let anybody kid you: there are still loads of honest folks full of integrity and honesty and competence. Go home, kiss your wife or husband, hug your children, and take heart: there are a lot of other people besides you who are determined to build a better life on the bones of a dying economy, and build it themselves.

Currencies today stand at US$1 = Y78.70 = E 0.7724.

US dollar index make a spike bottom Friday at 79.50 and has completed an upside-down head and shoulders with a neckline about 79.95. Close above 80 sends the dollar index scooting higher. Gained today 7.5 basis points over Friday to close at 79.764. Expect dollar to rally as long as it holds 79.50.

Euro lost 0.05% to $1.2946. Has now posted a series of three lower tops. It's like those Tarzan movies when the Englishman leading the safari hears the drums beating in the jungle and all the porters throw away their bundles and run away. "Bad juju, Bwana!"

Yen gapped down today and lost 0.35% to 127.07. No good news expected for yen-owners.

STOCKS diverged cleanly from metals today, gaining while metals fell. Dow rose 95.68 (0.72%) to 13,424.53. Dow has bounced off its 50 day moving average (13,325.35) and is climbing toward the 20 DMA (13,491.56). S&P500 has turned, too, up 11.52 today (0.81%) to 1,440.11.

Y'all mark my words, this will end in mighty sorrows for stock investors.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, October 12, 2012

The Gold Price Lost $10.80 Closing at $1,749.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1,758.00
Gold Price Close 5-Oct : 1,778.60
Change : -20.60 or -1.56%

Silver Price Close Today : 33.67
Silver Price Close 5-Oct : 34.52
Change : -0.85 or -2.45%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.21
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Oct : 51.53
Change : 0.68 or 1.32%

Franklin Sanders did not post GOLD PRICE commentary today as he is busy with the Transformations and Renewals Conference. He will return Monday.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, October 11, 2012

The Gold Price Closed Up and Silver Down is Gold Consolidating?

Gold Price Close Today : 1,768.80
Gold Price Close 5-Oct : 1,778.60
Change : -9.80 or -0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 34.046
Silver Price Close 5-Oct : 34.516
Change : -0.47 or -1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.953
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Oct : 51.530
Change : 0.42 or 0.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01925
Silver Gold Ratio 5-Oct : 0.01941
Change : -0.00016 or -0.8%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 155.74
Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Oct : $ 158.18
Change : $ (2.44) or -1.5%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.534
Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Oct : 7.652
Change : -0.12 or -1.5%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 391.42
Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Oct : 394.31
Change : -2.89 or -0.7%

Dow Industrial : 13,326.39
Dow Industrial 5-Oct : 13,610.15
Change : -283.76 or -2.1%

S&P 500 : 1,432.84
S&P 500 5-Oct : 1,460.93
Change : -28.09 or -1.9%

US Dollar Index : 79.777
US Dollar Index 5-Oct : 79.417
Change : 0.360 or 0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,687.80
Platinum Price Close 5-Oct : 1,703.30
Change : -15.50 or -0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 649.45
Palladium Price Close 5-Oct : 661.75
Change : -12.30 or -1.9%

I'm sending you this weekly summary early this week, because tomorrow I will be busy with the Transformations and Renewals Conference. God willing, I will return Monday, having enjoyed an enlightening and uplifting weekend.

Let's think first about the GOLD/SILVER RATIO before we talk the silver and GOLD PRICE. Today's ratio closed at 51.953, near the top of the last month and a half's range. Above, between 53.5 and 54 is a gap the ratio left on the way down. More, the 50 DMA stands at 53.74 and the 200 DMA at 54.05, and both are likely targets for an upside correction. Odds here favor a rise to 54. Remember that a rising ratio means falling gold and silver, and vice versa.

The GOLD PRICE closed up $5.60 to $1,768.80 while silver gainsaid with a lower close, down 2.7 cents to 3404.6.

Both silver and gold have traced out broadening tops formations punctuated by a double top. This might instead prove to be a consolidation formation, it's true, but until gainsaid, gravity has control.

GOLD PRICE must sling its leg over $1,800 and step out smartly to contradict this broadening top view. Down below, if it breaks the last low ($1,738) it will probe beneath down to $1,700 or $1,650.

The SILVER PRICE has double tops about 3544c, and a hammock beneath at about 3350c. Targets if it falls out of that hammock are 3100c and 3200c.

Instead of whining and griping, let loose that smile and thank Heaven for the opportunity to buy silver and gold at reduced prices before they launch moonward.

Here's an example why I don't worry too much about short term timing. Customer reminded me today he had bought in August 2008 at $805 gold and $14.15 silver. After August 2008 both nosedived, silver down to $8.80 and gold to $705. Owch! We're ruined!

Not quite. As of today, that silver had gained 123% (was 2.23 times what he paid for it) and the gold had gained 108% (was 2.08 times cost).

Looking from here, that temporary spasm of bad timing doesn't look so bad after all.

The weekly scoreboard always tells the tale. First, confusion abounds. Markets that should move together show mixed and contradictory closes, e.g., Dow down and S&P500 up, gold up, silver down. However, all these closed lower this week: gold, silver, platinum, palladium, the Dow, and the S&P500. On that board, only the dollar rose this week, and that grudgingly. Seems obvious that investors are wary of committing themselves before the election, although whether Peter Pan or Tinkerbelle is elected, it won't make any difference in anything, except the rate at which we are fleeced and enslaved.

Yesterday morning on National Proletarian Radio, the Voice of International Socialism and Stupidity, I heard some college students interviewed about the election. I pass over in silence exactly how much deep judgment a 21 year old can have, and get to the point. One girl said she was voting for Romney because he could create jobs. Could y'all hear me groan?

You cannot have an intelligent conversation with a person who believes that politicians create jobs. They simply don't know enough to form the words. PRODUCERS create jobs, governments consume resources. Any money government spends must by inflating or taxing come first from producers, curtailing their resources, causing them to consume less, and, obviously, employ fewer workers.

Maybe the government is putting something in the water that makes people believe stupid ideas really will work: stupidium, the last and dumbest element.

At the moment the big question overhanging the market is whether the US dollar index is down for the count or intending to rally. It has twice sought to break through 80, with wretched impotence. Today it held on above its 20 DMA, so technically remains pointed up. Dollar is battling its downtrend line from July, and should it conquer, will run to the 200 DMA at 80.70, or even to 81. This will spook stock and metals investors the way a green dog spooks quail in an open field. (He doesn't know to stop and point at 'em.)

To maintain upward momentum the US dollar index must remain above 79.50.

US1.00 = E0.7737 = Y78.33. Euro closed up 0.46% at $1.2925 but beneath its $1.2958 20 DMA. Has failed to breach that downtrend line and advance. Looks mighty poorly, kinda green around the gills.

Yen closed 127.67 cents, down 0.18%. Every bit as flakey as the euro.

Stocks have reached the Fish or Cut Bait crossroads. If the Dow closes below 13,300 (50 DMA is 13,326) it will fly like your seven-year old trying his batman cape off the garage roof.

Dow today dropped 18.58 (0.14%) to 13,326.39 while the gainsaying S&P500 rose 0.28 to 1,432.84. Both the Dow and S&P500 have fallen down from their rising wedges and unless they can catch their balance and rise, a fall yet huger awaits.

Whoopie! The digital versions of At Home In Dogwood Mudhole are ready. Hard copies won't be here until 26 October, but if you want to purchase AHIDM in PDF, Kindle, or e-Book format for $16.95, you can order at http://store.the-moneychanger.com/products/at-home-in-dogwood-mudhole-vol1

And once y'all order and have a chance to read a little, let me know what you think. If it doesn’t make you gasp, laugh, cry, or jump up and down (or all at once), I'll refund your electrons.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.