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Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Gold Price in the Last Three Days Gained $27 and Lost $19.30 Remains in Uptrend

Gold Price Close Today : 1660.60
Change : -19.30 or -1.15%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.335
Change : -0.817 or -2.54%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.995
Change : 0.747 or 1.43%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01887
Change : -0.000270 or -1.41%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1673.90
Change : -13.90 or -0.82%

Palladium Price Close Today : 745.30
Change : -5.70 or -0.76%

S&P 500 : 1,498.11
Change : -3.85 or -0.26%

Dow In GOLD$ : $172.54
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.54%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.347
Change : 0.363 or 4.54%

Dow in SILVER oz : 442.34
Change : 9.69 or 2.24%

Dow Industrial : 13,860.58
Change : -49.84 or -0.36%

US Dollar Index : 79.20
Change : -0.057 or -0.07%

The GOLD PRICE lost $19.30 today and closed at $1,660.60. Silver did no better, down 81.7 cents to 3133.5.

Both 5 day charts look the same, and the look is an Island Reversal top. Gold gapped from about $1,666 to $1672 yesterday, then traded sideways between 1675 and 1682. Today it gapped down about $1,679, and never settled till it hit $1,659.33. But if it's that week, why did it stop slap on Tuesday's close? Why not fall further?

The SILVER PRICE chart is the same, save with different numbers. Gapped up yesterday from 3140c to over 3200c, traded sideways in a tight range, then fell off at 3180c today down to 3126 and ended at 3133.5c.

How will we know whether that is an island reversal in truth? Both will fall tomorrow hard. If instead the trade up into the range where they gapped down today, then it's not.

Looking at a 5 day chart twists your perspective. You might get an early warning signal there, but you have to factor that into the perspective of a longer term chart.

In the last three days, silver gained 139.6 cents, then lost back 81.7 today for a net gain of 57.9 cents. Gold gained $27, lost $19.30 today, for a net rise of $7.70.

Now back off further. Since mid December silver and gold have built even-sided triangles working further and further into the point. Only the spike low on 4 January violates that triangle, and that was a false breakout that never followed through. Trend for both since 4 January has been, and remains, up.

Today in particular the GOLD PRICE closed below its 200 DMA ($1,663.32), no cheerful sign. Yet it remains in that uptrend.

Silver remained above its 20 DMA (3123c, near the low at 3126c where lots of buyers were hiding) and above its 300 DMA (3113c).

I know this roller coaster ride up one day and down the next wears out your stomach and maybe has you, too, reaching for your wastebasket. That's precisely why I don't trade futures or on margin. From the perspective of a BULL market and 100% paid for silver and gold, I can watch those declines with a lot more aplomb than when it's margined and everything I own and my wife and children are on the line. I like to sleep at night.

Perspective: It makes all the difference in the world. If you're an ant looking up at an elephant, you have no idea what that colossus is. Likewise, an elephant can't tell much about an ant without a magnifying glass. I'll explain presently.

Looky there! Stocks were wallowing in a deep swamp today. Spent most of the day underwater and fighting gravity. Dow lost 49.84 (0.36%) to 13,860.58. S&P500 swam alongside, losing 3.85 (0.26%) to fall below 1,500 and rest at 1,498.11.

Both of 'em are still as oversold as the efficiency of Government Sponsored Enterprises or the statecraft of Bernard O'Bama. There's a lot of air beneath that ledge stocks are standing on. They could fall to 13,625 without even damaging the chart too much. Don't count on aubstantially higher stock prices soon.

Yep, I'm still wearing out my eyeballs staring at the Dow in Gold chart. Last six days it has formed what I must call an Island Reversal Top, unless it gainsays that somehow. Similar but not selfsame pattern shows on the Dow in Silver chart. Those charts argue stocks have run out of gas against metals.

Only thing worse than having to work as an usher at the ballet is watching these rotten fiat currencies. Pure torture. US dollar index has fallen plumb against the bottom boundary of its trading channel, and now must rally or fall through that trap door and slide. Stepping back, the Dollar index has been trending down since its July high at 84.10. Today it lost another 5.7 basis points (0.7%) to wind up at 79.204. Here's more perspective for y'all: dollar index peaked in June 2001 at 121.21, so holding them green yankee dollars has cost you 35% of your purchasing power since then. Yeah, buddy, that dollar and them bonds and CDs are a going Jessie!

What of the other scrofulous fiat currencies today? Euro keeps on rising. Gained another 0.1% today and closed at $1.3578. If it clears this area, it's liable to run for $1.4000, where it will be even more sharply, preposterously overvalued than it is now.

Yen made a new low close, down another 0.5% to 109.26 cents/Y100. Nice Government Men in the ECB must be puking in their wastebaskets every time they look at that Euro/Yen chart. They've been snaked by the Japanese in the currency war.

On 31 January 1861 the Republic of Louisiana seized the US Mint at New Orleans.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, January 30, 2013

The Silver and Gold Price Jumped Higher on News of Further Inflation Gold Up $19.10 at $1,679.90

Gold Price Close Today : 1679.90
Change : 19.10 or 1.15%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.152
Change : 0.993 or 3.19%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.249
Change : -1.052 or -1.97%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01914
Change : 0.000378 or 2.01%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1687.80
Change : 10.40 or 0.62%

Palladium Price Close Today : 751.00
Change : 1.65 or 0.22%

S&P 500 : 1,501.03
Change : -6.80 or -0.45%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.10
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.58%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.277
Change : 0.363 or 4.58%

Dow in SILVER oz : 432.47
Change : -15.38 or -3.43%

Dow Industrial : 13,904.73
Change : -49.69 or -0.36%

US Dollar Index : 79.26
Change : -31.400 or -28.38%

The GOLD PRICE added $19.10 today to close Comex at $1,679.90, Silver rose 99.3 cents to 3215.2c.

In the last two days silver has risen 139.6c (4.5%) and the GOLD PRICE $27 (1.6%).

What jumps out at us today is the SILVER PRICE closing above its 50 day moving average (3189c). Either telepaths are working in the silver market, or news of the FOMC's announcement leaked out. Silver gapped up on the open, traded straight up, then gapped up again, and crossed 32 resistance and the 50 DMA in the bargain.

What's important about the 50 DMA? Because it has capped every move since mid-October. Only barrier left before silver is the downtrend line from the October 2012 high, tomorrow about 3245c. Last high was 3249c, so any close over 3250c tomorrow will send silver shooting for 3450c, next resistance. I can't see what will stop it, but then, I not a telepath or clairvoyant.

Gold's story is a wee bit more complicated. It didn't quite best its 50 DMA (1688.44), but shot through its 20 DMA and punched into the 150 DMA (1,681.13). One tee tiny jump tomorrow takes it through the 50 DMA, but a much bigger test faces gold: bursting through $1,700. Exactly at that resistance tomorrow awaits the downtrend line from the October 2012 high. Breaking through now will boost gold to challenge $1,725.

Every move you THINK is a breakout needs to confirm by moving further in the same direction the next day. Still, both silver and gold have built an uptrend -- higher highs and higher lows -- since 4 January.

Look for higher silver and gold prices tomorrow. Again I will say, I believe silver and gold made their post-October correction low on 4 January 2013. From here both should launch a rally that will carry gold to $2,350, maybe by end-May, that will mark only the first leg of a much longer rally.

I have to warn y'all to be careful of "We Buy Gold and Silver Shops." Today I had a customer who wanted to sell US 90%. He called one of these shops, and they offered him $14.8 times face value for what I bought for $22.802 times face value. Y'all have to check around for pricing. Some of these folks would steal the quarters off a dead man's eyes.

Yea, the Fed hath spoken, and 'tis naught but vexation, vanity, and hot air. His Munificence Ben said he will keep on buying $85 billion in securities ever month, because of "bad weather."

Nay, I joke not. The FOMC blamed the "temporary pause" in the economy (temporary since 2008) on "temporary forces," like bad weather. I couldn't make up stuff this silly if I stayed up late nights.

His Munificence said he is not backing off his inflation, so gold and silver surged higher. So did the 10 year Treasury yield. It rose a huge 0.91% to 2.006%, punching through resistance at the upper channel line. If it clears 2.4%, many more folks will begin to wonder why they are holding a losing position in US treasuries.

Of that $85 billion His Munificence plans to spend monthly monthly, he will spend $45 billion on Treasuries and another $40 bn on Mortgage Backed Securities. In other words, he's bailing out the banks still. He's making the Fed the septic tank for their sewage-grade assets. HMB also said he would keep on spending $85 bn a month if the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially.

The Keynesian stupidity motivating HMB is like your mechanic claiming he aims to fix your automobile by taking off all four wheels, dropping the transmission, dousing it with gasoline, and throwing in a match. This will do the same for the economy.

Stocks did not like His Munificence's plans, and dropped. Dow lost 49.69 (0.38%) to 13,904.73. S&P lost 6.8 (0.45%) to 1,501.03.

Since I am only a natural born fool from Tennessee, I don't claim to know much. But I have observed that tops in the stock market are just about impossible to pinpoint, even as you watch them. 'Tis an enormous market, and just about the time you are certain it's been beat, it raises its head for one last spike up. Therefore, I am not pinpointing or predicting, only pointing out the witnesses for the prosecution

First, the Dow and the S&P500 both have pricked their overhead resistance (top jaw of the Jaws of Death), and both have peeked through the top of a fatal rising wedge. Both are in the right shoulder of a 16-year old head and shoulders. Both have traced out a broadening top ("Jaws of Death") since May 2011, and within that have formed another head and shoulders through 2012.

Call the other witnesses. The Dow in Gold gapped up four days ago, formed an island reversal, and if it gaps down again tomorrow will complete the formation. In the same time silver gapped up, gapped again to a single day top (452.10 oz), gapped down yesterday and again today, leaving that top isolated in what also partakes of Island Reversal flavor. Wait! Call those other two witnesses, the RSI and MACD that both point out a severely overbought Dow and S&P500.

But shucks -- all those witnesses may be lying.

Ben's generosity to the banks didn't help the US dollar index much. It fell , losing 31.4 basis points (0.4%) to end at 79.255. This confirms its breakdown from its short term uptrend yesterday.

Euro gapped up on that news, way over $1.3500 resistance, up 0.56% to $1.3565. That answers what it intends to do: rise.

Yep, the yen made another new low for the move today, closing down 0.4% at 109.84 cents/Y100.

US$1=Y91.04=E0.7372=0.031102 oz Ag=0.000595 oz Au.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, January 29, 2013

The Gold Price Remains in Primary Uptrend Rising $7.90 to Close at $1,660.80

Gold Price Close Today : 1660.80
Change : 7.90 or 0.48%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.159
Change : 0.403 or 1.31%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.301
Change : -0.442 or -0.82%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01876
Change : 0.000154 or 0.83%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1677.40
Change : 16.20 or 0.98%

Palladium Price Close Today : 749.05
Change : 9.25 or 1.25%

S&P 500 : 1,507.84
Change : 7.66 or 0.51%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.69
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.51%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.402
Change : 0.363 or 4.51%

Dow in SILVER oz : 447.85
Change : -3.51 or -0.78%

Dow Industrial : 13,954.42
Change : 72.49 or 0.52%

US Dollar Index : 79.56
Change : -0.211 or -0.26%

The GOLD PRICE gained $7.90 (0.48%) to $1,660.8 while Silver gained 40.3 cents (1.3%) to 3115.9c. That's nice, but may be driven by no more strength than folks backing out of their shorts before the uncertainty of the FOMC meeting.

Of silver and gold I might say, "It's always darkest before the dawn," but somebody might remind me that it also gets pretty dark right before a tornado rips through town. Still, it's true. Markets turn around at extremes of sentiment. When "everybody" thinks a market is going up, then it's probably not, because "everybody" has already bought and that market has run out of buyers. Ditto but inverted for declining markets: market has run out of sellers.

But I can wait patiently, because I know that silver and gold remain in a primary uptrend. Sooner or later, that bull trend will kick in again and carry them higher.

Bad, bad -- gold stands below all its moving averages, BUT is for the nonce at least holding on at $1,655 and at that uptrend line from the June 2012 low. We can't MAKE it rise, we just have to watch calmly. Bad news from the FOMC meeting tomorrow -- "We realize now what a terrible mistake our inflation has been since 1913, so we're going to shut the doors and advise the American people to start using gold and silver money" -- would drive gold down. Course, they might say something markets perceive as "positive" for the GOLD PRICE. Yep, I know it's ridiculous, but we live in a world of illusion, and none on a grander scale than the Federal Reserve.

The SILVER PRICE on the other hand, doesn't look so bad. It stands above its 200 DMA (3065) and today closed above its 300 DMA (3113c) and 20 DMA (3112c). All this is nice, but silver must close above its 50 DMA (3189c) and then conquer the last high at 3249c.

Mark Twain once opened a lecture tour with, "Rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated." Silver and gold could say the very same today.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO today registers 53.301:1. Still time to trade any remaining gold for silver, targeting a fall to 32:1 or lower (about a 40% gain in ounces). Call us if you are interested.

Everybody has opinions, but only those who have convictions will put their money where their mouth is.

I'm talking about the bond bubble. Botulism Ben's strategy is founded on near-zero interest rates, but Ben doesn't control interest rates, only the Fed Funds rate and his own jaw. Once markets take the bit in their mouth and decide they no longer love bonds, they'll sell those bonds and interest rates will rise (yes, interest rates and bond prices move opposite to each other).

Problem is that Ben, like much modern medicine, fixes one only to break two more. His zero interest rate policy has created a bubble in -- guess what? -- bonds. After all, he told the world in advance he was going to keep on suppressing interest rates, so there was little danger in buying bonds, just as in 2006, there was little danger in residential real estate.

Point is, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note has risen to 2%, nay, has been rising since Mid-December. Oh, so far it's only a cloud no bigger than a man's hand on the horizon, but it continues to grow and move toward us. Should that 10 year Treasury yield cross 2.40%, Oh, my! The mayhem will become general.

Y'all know how I love numbers, so I started poking around in history. Did y'all know that with the Dow's close at 13,954.42 today, it stood at its highest price since 15 October 2007, not long after the all time high close on 9 October 2007 at 14,164.53?

Wow. Pretty good, huh? But in the same 5-1/4 years it has taken the Dow to scrabble back to its 2007 height, gold has more than doubled, from $757.10 to $1,660.80 (2.197x) and silver has multiplied 2.26 times from 1376 cents an ounce to 3015.9 cents today.

Yeah, buddy! Them stocks are on fahr like a house a-burning!

US Dollar index is cowering under its 20 day moving average (79.95) like a little feist dog somebody's been kicking all the time. It's built a little even-sided triangle here, so a break up or down lies in the cards, but which way?

Tomorrow meets and pontificates the Federal Open Market Committee, and markets, unaware of their true ignorance and fecklessness, will move with whatever silly pronouncement they make.

That's what got me started down this road. Some bond traders are betting that the FOMC will cease buying so many bonds if unemployment improves, hence they are selling and yields rising.

But this fool in Tennessee don't think it makes any more difference than whether somebody shoots you with a .45 caliber M1911 pistol or a .40 caliber Glock. Unemployment up or unemployment down, the Fed will keep flooding the market with new dollars. Their ideological Keynesianism limits them to that one response.

US dollar index lost 21.1 basis points (0.27%) to end at 79.556. Meanwhile the Euro rose 0.3% to $1.3494, and continues to paint a chart that looks like an island reversal topped at $1.3500. Won't last long if that's what it is. Yen fell a nothing 0.05% to 110.21 cents/Y100. May have bottomed.

US$1=Y90.82=E0.7411=0.032093 oz Ag=0.000602 oz Au.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, January 28, 2013

The Gold Price Fell a Little Along with Stocks Gold Closed at $1,652.90

Gold Price Close Today : 1652.90
Change : -3.70 or -0.22%

Silver Price Close Today : 30.766
Change : -0.424 or -1.36%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.725
Change : 0.612 or 1.15%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01861
Change : -0.000214 or -1.14%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1661.20
Change : -32.70 or -1.93%

Palladium Price Close Today : 739.80
Change : -0.45 or -0.06%

S&P 500 : 1,500.18
Change : -2.78 or -0.18%

Dow In GOLD$ : $173.61
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.51%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.399
Change : 0.363 or 4.51%

Dow in SILVER oz : 451.21
Change : 5.68 or 1.28%

Dow Industrial : 13,881.93
Change : -14.05 or -0.10%

US Dollar Index : 79.80
Change : -0.002 or 0.00%

Nothing much happened today beyond the foreseeable — Stocks fell, the silver and GOLD PRICE fell a little further, dollar was flat, and the other scabby fiat currencies as well.

Friday (25 January) I somehow posted the wrong closes for the Dow and S&P500. Correct closes were Dow 13895.98 (up 70.65) and S&P500 at 1,502.96 (up 8.14). I have no idea how that error crept in. Please forgive me.

The GOLD PRICE fell a little further, $3.70, to $1,652.90. Silver lost 42.4 cents to 3075.6.

Today gold's range touched the uptrend line from June '12 and the downtrend line from the November 12 high. In fact, it touched them exactly where they crossed.

Try to picture a falling wedge in your mind. Gold breaks out of that wedge about 2/3 of the way down, rallies to $1,698, then falls back, but (so far) only for a Kiss Back to the downtrend line it has just broken though upward.

Frustrating as this is, it doesn't point to a fall to the earth's core, but rather, another rise. Worst hand raised against that is gold's fall beneath its 200 day moving average on Friday. Needs to fix that quickly.

The SILVER PRICE chart looks much the same. However, silver hasn't kissed back all the way to that short term down trend line, and remains above its 200 DMA (3065c), but not by much. About 3045c tomorrow will lie the strong uptrend line from the June '12 low.

I was going back over some trades today from 2008 - 2009. I remember buying gold at $858 with my heart in my mouth in December. In May 2009 I was still nervous at 978.50, but bought anyway. And in November 2009, 17.098 silver looked awfully risky, but still I bought. Point is, markets always look risky, and exactly the right time to buy is the time your mind, body, and intestines will scream loudest. And sometimes, they're right.

Life comes with no guarantees, unless you are a slave.

Stocks dropped, the Dow at 13,881.93 down 14.05 (0.1%) and the S&P500 down 2.78 (0.18%) at 1,500.18. Only 4 or 5 times in the last 10 years have stocks been more highly oversold. They stand at their upper trendline resistance. They've sketched out a massive head and shoulders top that stretches back to 1996, and they've both lately reached the point of rising wedge formations.

Sure, maybe they can rise from here -- but don't bet on it.

Dollar, yen, and euro were all flat today. US dollar index closed 79.804, basically unchanged from Friday. Euro fell a miniscule 0.07% to $1.3450, while the yen rose 0.07% to 110.17 cents/Y100.

These gappy cahrts are hard to read. Euro gapped up on Friday, then traded in almost exactly the same range today, leaving a little isolated island up there. Must fill in that gap or advance sharply or it runs the risk of breaking down.

Be certain the world's big central bankers are furious with the Japanese and their competitive devaluation. They don't know much, but they remember the currency wars of the 1930s and would like to avoid them.

US$1=Y90.85=E0.7435=0.325139 oz Ag=0.000605 oz Au.

I found out something unusual about my new book, At Home in Dogwood Mudhole. People keep writing me that they're reading the book outloud with wife or husband, or reading it to their children. One of my sons has been reading it to his two boys, Gus (6) and Felix (4). Thinking, I reckon, on something he had heard at school, he stopped my son Christian while he was reading and asked, "Dad, were Mama Sue and Big Daddy alive in colonial times?" I didn't know we looked THAT old.

Y'all can still get copies of AHIDM at www.dogwoodmudhole.com.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, January 25, 2013

The Gold Price Lost $13.10 Closing Near the Low at $1,656.40

Gold Price Close Today : 1,656.40
Gold Price Close 18-Jan-13 : 1,686.60
Change : -30.20 or -1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.18
Silver Price Close 18-Jan-13 : 31.90.2
Change : -0.722 or -2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.124
Gold Silver Ratio 18-Jan-13 : 52.868
Change : 0.26 or 0.5%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01882
Silver Gold Ratio 18-Jan-13 : 0.01891
Change : -0.00009 or -0.5%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 173.11
Dow in Gold Dollars 18-Jan-13 : $ 167.30
Change : $5.81 or 3.5%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.374
Dow in Gold Ounces 18-Jan-13 : 8.093
Change : 0.28 or 3.5%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 444.86
Dow in Silver Ounces 18-Jan-13 : 427.86
Change : 17.00 or 4.0%

Dow Industrial : 13,870.75
Dow Industrial 18-Jan-13 : 13,649.70
Change : 221.05 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,500.67
S&P 500 18-Jan-13 : 1,485.98
Change : 14.69 or 1.0%

US Dollar Index : 79.748
US Dollar Index 18-Jan-13 : 80.030
Change : -0.282 or -0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,693.90
Platinum Price Close 18-Jan-13 : 1,672.10
Change : 21.80 or 1.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 740.25
Palladium Price Close 18-Jan-13 : 722.00
Change : 18.25 or 2.5%


The GOLD PRICE lost $13.10 today to close near the low at $1,656.40. Silver lost 51.5 cents to 3118c.

The silver and GOLD PRICE are not at a point -- $1,655 and 3100c -- where they must either catch or fall further, to $1,640 and 2975c.

Clearly, jumping over $1,700 will take some work.

Looking at it through the optimist's lens, today's gold retreat did no more than take gold down for a final kiss good-bye to the downtrend line from the high from mid-November. That's $1,656. Final kiss good-bye, I remind y'all, occurs after a market breaks through resistance, peaks, then corrects and touches back to that resistance line before it once again takes off.

I've been through these long soul-harrowing times before. You think metals have begun to take off again, only to disappoint you again. It can last a long time. Why shouldn't silver and gold go lower? The low on 4 January was too complete from a lot of angles. Most likely outcome will see silver and gold trading sideways next week, then attempting that $1,700 mark in a week or two.

Y'all think this is bad because you weren't watching the gold and SILVER PRICE in October and November 2008. Gold dropped 32% from its 2008 peak and silver gave up 105% of its preceding gain. Brutal, but by no means the end of the bull market. From an 880 cent and $704.50 low silver and gold rallied for 3 years. As I keep on telling y'all, the bull is always working to shake off as many riders as possible.

Wise words for today: "Keep about your work. Do not flinch because the lion roars. Do not stop to stone the devil's dogs. Do not fool away your time chasing the devil's rabbits. Do your work."


Again today stocks reached new high closes for the move. Dow added 45.42 (0.33%) to 13,870.75 while the S&P500 moved about the same, up 5.85 (0.39%) to 1,500.67. That close over 1,500 offers big round number support to morale, and never mind that it's only 2/3 of a point over 1,500.

Should you take a ruler and draw a line across the 12,875 Dow high in May 2011, the 13,238 in May 2012, and the October 2013 high at 13,662, you have an upward slope that defines the upper Jaw of Death, the upper boundary of a broadening top. (Lower boundary runs from May 2011 at 12,876 through 12,035 in June 2012.) Against that backdrop, within those Jaws of Death, all the present stock rally is playing out. Keep that in mind. (S&P500 backdrop is about the same.)

It is possible the Dow might punch through that upper jaw and reach for the 14,000 high made in October 2007. Witnessing against that is a VERY overbought RSI (75.69 today when 70 is overbought), more so than it was in 2007. MACD -- market's distance above its moving averages -- isn't quite that bad, but strongly overbought.

Stocks have also traded in a rising wedge since November, and the last three days have taken them above that wedge's point. Generally a rising wedge resolves by dropping. Stocks have also risen 8 days running.

It's also possible that stocks will break here for a correction, then renew their rise into March before their final breakdown, assuming that the next one isn't the big one.

But in the teeth of all the Fed's manipulation and the President's Plunge Protection Team and all the twitching and tweaking they can do, stocks are locked in a primary down trend (bear market), and those who have been seduced into believing that a new bull market is arrived and Dow 36,000 lies just around the corner will be undeceived in dust, sackcloth, ashes, weeping and wailing.

Dow in gold has broken above resistance and has an upward target of about 9.12 oz (G$188.53). Today it stands at 8.39 oz (G$173.44). Dow in silver was trying to break down but last two days has rallied no, gapped, above the 200 DMA and the 20 DMA and penetrated the downtrend line. Target here is about 475 oz, from today's 445.3.

US dollar index has a tee-tiny uptrend working, but today lost 23.7 basis points (0.3%) to 79.748. Euro finally burst through $1.3400 resistance to $1,3460, up 0.64%. Target now becomes $1.3486, the Feb. 2012 high. Yen made ANOTHER new low for the move today at 109.98 (-0.69%). I reckon you could take a sauna in the offices of the Federal Reserve and the ECB today, they are so mad at the Japanese for their jawboning competitive devaluation. Lower the yen falls, more it steams the other central banks. I reckon the proverb is true, there is no honor among theives.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, January 24, 2013

The Silver and Gold Price Corrected Today with Gold Closing Down $16.80 at $1,669.50

Gold Price Close Today : 1669.50
Change : -16.80 or -1.00%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.695
Change : -0.714 or -2.20%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.674
Change : 0.642 or 1.23%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01898
Change : -0.000234 or -1.22%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1682.30
Change : -6.70 or -0.40%

Palladium Price Close Today : 725.95
Change : -3.70 or -0.51%

S&P 500 : 1,494.82
Change : 0.01 or 0.00%

Dow In GOLD$ : $171.19
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.58%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.281
Change : 0.363 or 4.58%

Dow in SILVER oz : 436.20
Change : 11.03 or 2.59%

Dow Industrial : 13,825.33
Change : 46.00 or 0.33%

US Dollar Index : 79.98
Change : 0.094 or 0.12%

The GOLD PRICE lost $16.80, falling to $1,669.50 and the uptrend line from the June low. Owch! Even touched the 200 DMA (1,664.01). Right there about $1,665 gold has done a lot of trading, so that's a likely place to stop. Could even drop to $1,650, but there's not really much indication of any greater weakness.

That long 8 day SILVER PRICE upmove made me suspicious yesterday, and ought to have made me more suspicious. Silver fell 71.4 cents today to 3169.5c, giving back three days progress and falling beneath the 50 DMA (31.90) again. Came to a stop right on the uptrend line form the June '12 low. Fairly strong support at 3150 or stronger support above 3100c ought to catch it. Low today came at 3158c.

Lose not heart, neither puff and blow. Corrections happen. Keep your eyes open to buy a little more, maybe tomorrow.

Dow reached a new high for the move, an the upper boundary of the Jaws of Death topping formation. Rose 46 points (0.33%) to 13,825.33. Here's part of what's odd: S&P500 gained a measly 1/100 point to $1,494.82. Most other indices dropped, but the Russell 2000 gained 0.39% and the Wilshire 5000 added 0.1%. No enthusiasm anywhere but the Dow. RSI at 73.64, way overbought, and MACD out of line, too. Correction coming.

More oddness: when the Dow in Gold broke out above resistance yesterday, I thought it was a fluke. Today it gapped up again, to 8.28 oz (G$170.54 gold dollars). Indicators warn it is way overbought, but the next resistance is about 9.12 oz (G$188.53).

None of this makes sense after its September breakdown, and another breakdown in November, but I don't tell the markets what make sense, they tell me.

It gets odder still. The Dow in Silver gapped up today above its 200 day moving average, even above its 20 DMA (434.96) to close at 435.83. However, it has NOT broken out above resistance, and stocks look much weaker against silver than gold.

Two paths split off here. Either stocks will blow out the top much higher and gain on silver and gold, or stocks are within a day or two of some top. Stocks look way overbought here, but overbought can always get overboughter.

US Dollar index gained 9.4 basis points (0.12%) to 79.98, not quite above to breach 80. Euro rose 0.44% to 1.3375, but the surprise came in the yen, which dove 1.95% and gapped down to a new low at 110.61 c/Y100. Seems the yen can go lower after all.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, January 23, 2013

The Gold Price Fell $6.60 Today Why is Silver Outperforming Gold?

Gold Price Close Today : 1686.30
Change : -6.50 or -0.38%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.409
Change : 0.262 or 0.82%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.032
Change : -0.626 or -1.19%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01922
Change : 0.000229 or 1.20%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1691.70
Change : -6.70 or -0.39%

Palladium Price Close Today : 725.45
Change : -3.70 or -0.51%

S&P 500 : 1,494.81
Change : 2.25 or 0.15%

Dow In GOLD$ : $168.92
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.65%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.171
Change : 0.363 or 4.65%

Dow in SILVER oz : 425.17
Change : -1.38 or -0.32%

Dow Industrial : 13,779.33
Change : 67.12 or 0.49%

US Dollar Index : 79.88
Change : -0.144 or -0.18%

Again today the silver price outran the GOLD PRICE, adding 26.2 cents (0.82%) to 3240.9c while gold lost $6.50 (0.38%) to 1,686.30.

Question you have to keep asking yourself is, Why does silver keep on outperforming gold? Yes, indeed, why? I wish I knew. At least it confirms what I am seeing in the physical market, where 90% silver coin has soared.

Once again, eye-catching, strange doings in gold and silver today, odd moves stirred by phantoms. World was rocking along just fine with gold knocking on $1,695, it's high. Eased off to $1,692 right at 10:00 then a safe fell from the sky on its head. In 15 minutes it had gapped down to $1,683, and traded sideways and punch drunk the rest of the day, dipping as low as $1,683.80.

The GOLD PRICE hit its 50 DMA at 1693.85, but no big reason that ought to have occasioned such a sudden drop. Today's fall took gold back to the uptrend line from its $1,626 low on 4 January, so no real damage was done. I expect it will rise again tomorrow, for another knock on that $1,695 door. Gold's doing fine as long as it doesn't close below $1,663.97, its 200 DMA and where the uptrend from the June '12 low now rests.

The SILVER PRICE improved yesterday's breach of the downtrend from the 3449c November high, but has risen for the last eight (8) days running. That performance is hard to maintain, and makes me sweat a little, wondering if silver doesn't need a few days moving sideways or lower to rest. High at 3243.5c nearly reached the 3250c resistance.

Whatever hit gold today hit silver as well, but silver only dropped 15c -- a gappy drop -- from 3235c to 3220c, the day's low. From there it easily recovered.

It may be nothing more than the natural born fool speaking, but silver just feels very strong. Tomorrow will solve the mystery or prove me once again a fool.

Even if silver and gold see a few days' correction here, the bottom was posted 4 January and there's not much risk in buying here.

An old poker rule says, "Never draw to an inside straight." That means, never bet that the smallest odds will turn out in your favor, or, always take the main chance.

Stocks, both the Dow and the S&P500, have reached a Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 70. In that territory, a market is very much overbought, and the next big move will be down. Trouble is, markets can stay overbought or oversold sometimes longer than people have money. But that and an MACD in the stratosphere, and trading at the top of the Bollinger Bands all prophesy some correction in stocks' future, soon.

Some indices rose today, some fell -- indecision? Exhaustion? Dow gained 67.12 (0.49%) to 13,779.33 but the S&P500 did no more than add 2.25 (0.15%) to 1,494.81.

Dow in Gold keeps flirting with a top, while the Dow in Silver has dead broken down, trading the last two days below its 200 day moving average. Not impossible, but hard to picture that stocks will advance much more against gold. I would still sell stocks and put the proceeds into gold.

Looky there! That US dollar index has itself a little-old uptrend going. 'Tain't much, but it is a series of higher lows. Course, there are lower highs, too, so it's moving into an even-sided triangle that will eventually break up or down.

Dollar index today gained 6.5 scanty points (0.08%) -- Hey! somebody hold a mirror under its nostrils to see if it fogs up! I think that thing may be dead -- to close at 79.937. Top of the trading range is 80.20, 20 day moving average at 79.91, so maybe twill head higher. Watching currencies is like watching a flea circus: most of what's happening is only your imagination.

After the politicians jawboned the yen down from 126.43 in November to 110.96 four days ago, the BOJ head has jawboned it back up to 112.75 cents/Y100 today, up 0.03%. That's probably as low as the yen will stoop this trip.

Euro closed unchanged today at $1.3319. Big roadblock above is $1.3400.

US$1=Y88.69=E0.7508=0.030 856 oz Ag=0.000 593 oz Au.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, January 22, 2013

The Gold Price Finished it's Long Correction Since October Rising $6.20 Today to Close at $1,692.80

Gold Price Close Today : 1692.80
Change : 6.20 or 0.37%

Silver Price Close Today : 32.147
Change : 0.245 or 0.77%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.658
Change : -0.210 or -0.40%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01899
Change : 0.000075 or 0.40%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1696.30
Change : 24.30 or 1.45%

Palladium Price Close Today : 729.15
Change : 7.15 or 0.99%

S&P 500 : 1,492.56
Change : 6.58 or 0.44%

Dow In GOLD$ : $167.45
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.69%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.100
Change : 0.363 or 4.69%

Dow in SILVER oz : 426.55
Change : -1.32 or -0.31%

Dow Industrial : 13,712.21
Change : 62.51 or 0.46%

US Dollar Index : 79.88
Change : -0.144 or -0.18%

Solid day today for the silver and GOLD PRICE. Gold rose $6.20 to $1,692.80 and silver gained 24.5 cents to 3214.7. Silver conquered 3200c resistance, while gold is still struggling with $1,695.

Five day GOLD PRICE chart shows it's range bound by $1,695 and $1,680. However, it's forming a long narrow triangle that promises to break out upside. The undecided are waiting for gold to validate its rally by climbing over $1,705 or $1,730. I don't expect gold's move above $1,695 will be inchmeal. Rather, gold will pull on its seven league boots and step on out. Probably this week.

Gold keeps stalling at $1,695. high. Low today cam at $1,686.80.

One reason I know gold has attracted huge physical demand is the relative scarcity of inexpensive small and large gold coins. Somebody has been vacuuming them up for over two months. Wholesalers just don't have any, and nobody's selling.

While gold remained range bound, the SILVER PRICE hammered through 3200c resistance to reach new highs for the move today. Silver stands above every moving average, having punched through the 50 DMA today. (Gold hasn't quite closed through its 50 DMA at $1,694.76, but that's the only one still above it.)

From about 9:30 a.m. silver made a gappy move up and reached a high at 3234.2c. Low was 3182c.

More heartening still, silver pierced the downtrend line from its late November 3449c high. Poked its head clean through and sat down there. From here 3300c offers some round number resistance, but that 3449c last high is the first real target.

Silver and gold have left the starting gate, and are off and running. Stop waiting to buy.

Here's the Big Picture of what's going on. The world is slowly repudiating all fiat currencies as the system that spawned them fails. The worst is not behind us, it is yet to come. By the time this repudiation ends, the dollar and all the other scrofulous currencies will be only a dim and bitter memory, and a new monetary system will be established around silver and gold. But that's years away, and before then must come all the hardship, heartbreak, and catastrophe. It will take utter disaster to cement the repudiation, and no doubt some violence, most likely by governments against their citizens as the dying class seeks to hold on to power.

But it will end, and those who have capital -- gold and silver -- will be positioned to help build a new, just, prosperous, and parasite free economy.

The mountain gave birth to a mouse, and panicked all the shorts. I mean, of course, the Bank of Japan's announcement today that it would buy assets just like Big Ben Bernanke, but only beginning next year. Shorts panicked and the yen gapped up to 112.71 cents/Y100 (up 1.56%). Maybe that's the end of the dropping yen, or, dare I say, the currency has lost its yen to drop?

Speaking of nasty fiat currencies, the US dollar (?dolor?) index took a whipping today with a peach tree limb, down 0.2% to 79.883. Lost 14.4 basis points when it slipped through that morale-busting 80 level.

Dollar index still hasn't decided whether it will fish or cut bait. Can't rise above 80.2, won't fall below 79.60. 5-day chart is either indecisive and diddling, or about to fall further. Not clear, but any break below 79.6 carries the dollar lower, any break above 80.20 carries it skyward. Dollar ain't got nothing I want.

Euro stalled at $1.3400 six days ago and hasn't felt perky since then. Made two little tops that might point it lower. Lost 0.02% today, basically unchanged at $1.3319. Will continue climbing/crabbing sideways unless it breaks $1.32.

US$1=Y88.72=E0.7508=0.031107oz Ag=0.000591 oz Au.

Dow hit its highest point since December 2007 today. Closed 13,712.21, up 62.51 or 0.46%. S&P500 rose 0.44% (6.58 points) to 1,492.56.

Non-confirmations always make me nervous. When one stock index is rising, the others ought to rise, too. S&P500 is a little behind the Dow, and both the S&P500 and the Dow have over the past few years been the only world stock indices that have held up. The Dow Jones World Stock Index hit a 321.07 high in 2007, and today closed 270.57, about 16% lower. Compare the Dow today at only 3.4% lower than its 2007 high. All this does not foreshadow a bright future for stocks or the economy.

Meanwhile I've been gazing at the Charts for the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver. Both have formed diamond tops, and Dow/Silver is closer to breaking down than Dow/Gold. Only a matter of time till both break down.

Your worst mistake is to look around at today and forget what the future holds. Your best strategy is to ride the gold and silver bull market to safety, continuing to buy. Right now, having finished the long correction since October, is the right time to buy. Now.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



The Gold Price Closed Flat at $1,687.00

Gold Price Close Today : 1,687.00
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.93
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.83
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Franklin Sanders didn't post commentary today, if he posts later it will be available here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, January 18, 2013

The Gold Price Bottomed on January 4th Rising $26.60 this Week Buy Silver and Gold Period

Gold Price Close Today : 1,686.60
Gold Price Close 11-Jan-13 : 1,660.00
Change : 26.60 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.90
Silver Price Close 11-Jan-13 : 30.37
Change : 1.535 or 5.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.868
Gold Silver Ratio 11-Jan-13 : 54.665
Change : -1.80 or -3.3%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01891
Silver Gold Ratio 11-Jan-13 : 0.01829
Change : 0.00062 or 3.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 167.30
Dow in Gold Dollars 11-Jan-13 : $ 167.97
Change : -$0.67 or -0.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.093
Dow in Gold Ounces 11-Jan-13 : 8.126
Change : -0.03 or -0.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 427.86
Dow in Silver Ounces 11-Jan-13 : 444.18
Change : -16.32 or -3.7%

Dow Industrial : 13,649.70
Dow Industrial 11-Jan-13 : 13,488.43
Change : 161.27 or 1.2%

S&P 500 : 1,485.98
S&P 500 11-Jan-13 : 1,472.05
Change : 13.93 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 80.030
US Dollar Index 11-Jan-13 : 79.564
Change : 0.466 or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,672.10
Platinum Price Close 11-Jan-13 : 1,629.30
Change : 42.80 or 2.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 722.00
Palladium Price Close 11-Jan-13 : 700.70
Change : 21.30 or 3.0%

The GOLD PRICE high came at $1,695, low at $1,684.70. Trying to remain sober, I note that gold has enjoyed 4 upweeks out of the last four. However, momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI, with plenty of room to rise. Then I think about GOLD punching at the top of its Bollinger Bands and cool a little. So maybe gold will take a breather next week, move sideways before it takes off again.

The mark for gold to beat has become $1,705. A close over that will attract lots of buyers, a close over $1,730 flocks of 'em.

SILVER PRICE gained 11.6 cents today to close Comex at 3190.2c. Gold lost $3.80 to close at $1,686.60, still above that early December low.

SILVER PRICE is in the same position as gold, strong momentum indicators and above all its moving averages except the 50 day. Looks ready to rise.

A GOLD PRICE close above $1,705 will carry gold immediately higher. A close below $1,685 sets the stage for a modest fall, maybe to $1,660.

I believe the bottom for the correction from the October highs came on 4 January. Buy silver or gold, period, but especially on any price retreat. The party has kicked off again.

I know a trader who says, "The week never lies." That is, you can't argue with a scoreboard.

This week silver showed up on that scoreboard as the clear winner, up 5.1%. Gold gained 1.6%. Stocks, for all the jubilating and publicity, gained 1.2% (Dow) and 0.9% (S&P500). US Dollar index came back to life today, and platinum and palladium roared.

You won't understand what's going on unless you note that in spite of stocks' gains this week, the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver FELL.

US DOLLAR INDEX finally broke through 79.80 resistance and jumped to touch 80.187,although it has backed off now to 80.03, up 31.6 basis points (0.41%). 80 now becomes support.

I hate dealing with these old nasty currencies. It's like sorting cow pies, and, worse yet, they're driven by political central bank policies you can never discern from a chart.

They're all mixed up now. Dollar won't rally, and won't break down. Stuck Euro rallies, then changes its mind -- twice over. It closed down 0.43% today to $1.3316. Apparently the Keynesian lamebrains running the US government and Fed don't care that the Japanese have cheapened their currency by nearly 15% since September, by the mere swirling of paper gaining a competitive advantage over US manufacturers. But shucks, these and earlier lamebrains -- including ESPECIALLY the Republicans back to Reagan -- have already sent most US manufacturing overseas by currency and tariff manipulations. I don't know how an occupying army could have done the U.S. more damage. Whose side are they on? Not ours.

Yen lost another 0.27% to close at 111.03 cents/Y100. I hope y'all like flipping hamburgers for a living.

Stocks this week made a new high for the rally that begin in mid-November, and slightly bettered the high from October. Then today they added modestly to that. Dow gained 53.68 (0.39%) to 13,649.70 while the S&P500 gained 0.34% (5.04) to 1,485.98.

Question now becometh, Can they reach new highs higher than the October 2007 high (intraday 14,198.10)? Recalling that the Dow has traced a massive broadening top or megaphone Jaws of Death formation, it really won't matter. That would be the ideal ploy for a bear market to suck in more victims.

Never mind. Look at a 15 year chart of any stock index in the world and you'll see a massive head and shoulders formation that measure to a point so low it makes no sense. Right now the Dow is finishing the top of that right shoulder. Once it begins to fall, O, have mercy! Weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth will follow, without relief.

The Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver have been correcting these last 18 months or so after those metal highs in April 2011 and August 2012. Now they are re-awakening. Since the August 1999 top in Dow/Gold, stocks have lost about 85% of their value against gold, and about the same against silver. Before this metals bull market/stock bear market ends, stocks will lose ANOTHER 85% against metals, more against silver.

Knowing that ought to make y'all pull those IRAS out of stocks faster than you can say, "Call my stock broker!" Still, the sad nature of humanity is to linger too long on the cliff' edge.

Here's a little tip that even many silver and gold dealers don't understand. The most reliable indicator of silver's direction is an extreme in the premium on US 90% silver coins ("Premium" is the amount it sells for over or under its metal value.)

As recently as 4 October 2012 at the last peak, wholesalers were paying spot silver less 25 cents for US 90% and selling at 10 cents an ounce over spot. A month later, with silver about $3 lower, they were offering to buy at 5 cents under spot. By end of November they were paying spot. By the beginning of January they were paying 20c over spot, and today I can get 65 cents over spot. Most dealers are not offering 90% for sale, or offering it only at 4 week delays, even at 100c an ounce over spot.

The high 90% premium is one reason I have been so stubbornly expecting a silver bottom, and why I thought 4 January was a bottom.

Another footnote to this story: t'ain't nothing like as much US 90% silver coin in the world as everybody thinks. It has been melted since the late 1960s, zillions of bags. One day everybody's going to wake up and say, "How come those bags are carrying a 40% premium?" Easy: because they are the most useful form of silver investments, most divisible, and there aren't many left.

CONFISCATION? After I denounced the government gold confiscation myth yesterday, a bewildered subscriber wrote, “Haven't you always been saying the NGM would confiscate gold?” Here’s my reply:

1. I have never in the past 15 years written that "today's NGM want to pull off the same dirty trick" of confiscation.  You must have misinterpreted what I wrote.

2.  Yes, gold offers a safe haven from hyperinflation, but the central banks and governments have spent the last 80 years driving gold out of the system and proclaiming it is not money.  Confiscating it will prove otherwise.

3. The spoils don’t justify the game. People who buy gold or silver by and large do not trust the financial system or the government/Fed. Imagine porcupines in a liverish mood, and you’ll have a good picture how sweetly they would cooperate with confiscation. The loot confiscated won’t repay the NGM’s grief suffered in the confiscating.

4.  The LONG TERM game is for the Insiders to get as much gold possible as cheaply as possible (probably the main purpose of the gold price suppression 1996 - 2005), to run the inflation game as long as possible, and THEN to reverse their field and again base the monetary system on gold.  That will only happen after they have bled the rest of us dry and the whole system has gone hooves up.  That's a long time off.

5. 2013 is not 1934.  Circumstances today, as well as the law, have all changed.

Again, you are more likely to be abducted by aliens from the planet Zambodia tonight than you are to suffer the government confiscating your gold.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, January 17, 2013

The Gold Price is Rising and it Doesn't Get Much Better than This Buy Now

Gold Price Close Today : 1,690.40
Change : 7.70 or 0.46%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.786
Change : 0.272 or 0.86%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.181
Change : -0.215 or -0.40%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01880
Change : 0.000076 or 0.40%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1697.80
Change : 5.60 or 0.33%

Palladium Price Close Today : 725.40
Change : -0.30 or -0.04%

S&P 500 : 1,480.94
Change : 8.31 or 0.56%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.27
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.72%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.043
Change : 0.363 or 4.72%

Dow in SILVER oz : 427.74
Change : -1.00 or -0.23%

Dow Industrial : 13,596.02
Change : 84.79 or 0.63%

US Dollar Index : 79.69
Change : -0.120 or -0.15%

The GOLD PRICE burst through that early December low at $1,684.10 and added $7.70 to end at $1,690.4. High came at $1,695.56. Gold now stands above all its moving averages except the 50 day ($1,695.72). It has broken out of its downtrend line from the November high, and approacheth the downtrend line from the October high. RSI and MACD have all turned up. Volume is rising with price. Buddy, it don't get much better than this.

The SILVER PRICE rose today 27.2 cents to close at 3178.6c, with a new intraday high and a new high for the move off the 4 January low. Screeched to a halt just a gnat's whisker off the 50 day moving average (3200c).

But looky here: eye hath seldom seen, nor ear heard, trading like gold and silver did today. Come open about 8:30, silver gapped down from 3142 and fall clean to 3104.5c by 9:15. Turned around, gapped up a couple of short jumps (I'm looking at a 5 minute interval chart), then jumped clean from 3135 to 3165c in five minutes. Climbed a bit more to 3188.6c, then leveled off rest of the day to that 3178.6c close.

Behold the GOLD PRICE chart, bogus as they come. Early on selling knocked gold from $1,681 by a gap to $1,676. Gold was on the ropes, bumbling and tumbling to $1,666.59 by 9:00. Gold shook it's head, made a tiny gap up to $1,675 (5 minute interval chart, remember) then leapt from there clean to $1,686! And kept on climbing to the $1,695.56 high, and leveled off to close at $1,690.40.

Ladies and gentlemen, this ain't normal trading. Looks like some NGM smarties thought they'd whack gold again today like they did last Friday, but gold turned around and whacked 'em back, breaking a couple of teeth in their jaw. Maybe I'm no more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, but when a market takes a body blow like that, then fights back to close higher -- through heavy resistance -- well, that old dog wants to hunt, and will. Count on it.

Final confirmation that silver and gold posted their lows on 4 January will come with a gold close over $1,725 and silver above 3250c. However, with all the other indicators pointing up, I'm buying the rest of what I intended to buy. Both metals may suffer and labor some more, but the lows are behind us, I believe.

Nearly daily some fearful person writes me about "reporting issues” with silver and gold.   Y’all get this set in your minds: NOTHING need be reported when you buy, unless you buy for more than $10,000 in cash. REPEAT, no matter what anybody tells you, when you buy silver and gold, there is no requirement whatever that the purchase be reported to any government, as long as you don’t pay cash. If you pay cash, it’s the cash and not the gold or silver that’s reported.

Most of that fear about government knowing that you have silver or gold is fomented by salesmen trying to sell you highly over-priced numismatic coins under the the myth they aren't "reportable" or "confiscatable” or sell you something else. Fear boosts sales.

This is not 1934. THEN, gold contributed a meaty part to the 35% required banking reserves. NOW, gold is no longer held in commercial banking reserves, and the reserve requirement is less than ¾ of 1%. Roosevelt had to steal the gold to make his inflation plan work, otherwise gold would have offered to the realizers an escape route out of the dollar.

All the 1934 reasons to confiscate gold have vanished in 2013. You are more likely to be abducted by aliens on your way home tonight than you are to have your gold confiscated by the federal government. Besides, you’re not going to turn over your gold to a government agent any more than you'd turn over your assault rifle.

Unless you want your family to starve. (For me, these questions present no moral dilemma whatever.)

One last word: recently a bill has been introduced into the Illinois legislature called the "Illinois Precious Metal Purchasing Act." It provides that a person "who is in the business of purchasing precious metal shall obtain a proof of ownership, create a record of the sale, and verify the identity of the seller."

Some analysts have incorrectly interpreted this. It ONLY applies to people "in the business of purchasing precious metals," i.e., scrap buyers. Further proof is that they would be required to open their records to local law enforcement. Similar laws are already in effect all over the country, and were put in place during the last gold and silver run-up in 1980 to make it harder for burglars to fence their stolen goods. To see the bill, go to http://bit.ly/WoFeoC and prove it for yourself.

Now, take a deep breath and relax. Go home, kiss your wife or husband and children, enjoy a tasty supper, and thank God for peace and rest, at least for today.

The dollar index once again hit its face against 79.80 like a German shepherd chasing a parked car. Fell off and never recovered, losing 12.2 basis points (0.16%) to 79.685.

US$1=Y89.82=E0.7478=0.031460 oz Ag=0.000 592 oz Au.

Other markets -- stocks and metals -- rose all out of proportion to the dollar's drop. Stocks made new highs, higher than last fall. Last September the Dow's high close came 20 September at 13,596.93, but it made an intraday high early-October at 13,661.87, then fell like Jerry Lee Lewis' career after he married a 13 year old. S&P500 made a September high at 1,465.77 and same day an intraday high at 1,474.51.

Today the S&P touched 1,485.16 and at the close had gained 8.31 (0.56%) to 1,480.94 -- new intraday high and new high close.

Dow today reached 13,633.89 and gained 84.79 (0.63%) to end at 13,596.02.

Me, O, my. That bear is baiting his den with the hope of big, big things to come, but stay away from that cave. Once the bear fills it up, he will devour the foolhardy at leisure.

Do not overlook the Dow measured by gold or by silver. Dow in Gold remains below its downtrend line. Ditto Dow in silver. Momentum for both has turned down. Metals will beat stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, January 16, 2013

The Gold Price Lost 70 Cents Closing at $1,682.70 Silver Up Slightly

Gold Price Close Today : 1682.70
Change : 0.70 or 0.04%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.514
Change : 0.016 or 0.05%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.395
Change : -0.005 or -0.01%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01873
Change : 0.000002 or 0.01%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1692.20
Change : 4.20 or 0.25%

Palladium Price Close Today : 725.70
Change : 13.10 or 1.84%

S&P 500 : 1,472.63
Change : 0.29 or 0.02%

Dow In GOLD$ : $165.98
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.029
Change : 0.363 or 4.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 428.74
Change : -0.97 or -0.23%

Dow Industrial : 13,511.23
Change : -23.60 or -0.17%

US Dollar Index : 79.81
Change : 0.040 or 0.05%

The silver and GOLD PRICE didn't agree today, either, but in the past that has often led to good things on the morrow. Silver gained 1.6 cents to 3151.4c while gold lost a measly 70 cents to $1,682.70.

The GOLD PRICE is trapped in a $1,675 - $1,685 range established the last two days. Any close inside that range means nothing, and a close above or below will take gold that same direction for a few days. Down below $1,665 and $1,655 remain firm.

Like gold, the SILVER PRICE has trapped itself in a range the past two days, 3150 above and 3100 below.

If they break to the upside, silver and gold will likely jump a long ways. I would buy the breakout, which requires silver above 3200c and gold over $1,695.

Fairly quiet day across markets.

US dollar index rose a whopping 4 basis points to close 79.811, still not effectively piercing the 79.80-.90 barrier. Dollar's treading water, and without a life jacket will go under. But central banks are in the life-jacket business.

Euro made an inchmeal push down, losing 0.13% to $1.3290. Uptrend still in force.,

Yen rose 0.46% today to 113.14. I believe we've seen the end of that waterfall.

US$1 =Y88.39=E0.7524=0.031732 oz silver=0.000591 oz gold.

Stocks couldn't agree today, not a good sign for them. Dow fell 23.6 to 13,511.23 while the S&P500 gained a nothing 0.29 to 1,472.63. Plenty more upside left for stocks in their final dance with death, but having a hard time penetrating 13,600.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, January 15, 2013

The Gold Price Up and Poised to Rise Further Silver Rising on a 45 Degree Angle

Gold Price Close Today : 1,683.40
Change : 14.50 or 0.87%

Silver Price Close Today : 31.498
Change : 0.418 or 1.34%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.445
Change : -0.252 or -0.47%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01871
Change : 0.000088 or 0.47%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1688.00
Change : 31.70 or 1.91%

Palladium Price Close Today : 712.60
Change : 10.05 or 1.43%

S&P 500 : 1,472.34
Change : 1.66 or 0.11%

Dow In GOLD$ : $166.21
Change : $ 7.50 or 4.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 8.040
Change : 0.363 or 4.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 429.71
Change : -4.89 or -1.13%

Dow Industrial : 13,534.89
Change : 27.57 or 0.20%

US Dollar Index : 79.77
Change : 0.268 or 0.34%

The GOLD PRICE rose $14.50 (0.87%) by Comex closing time to finish at $1,683.40. That came after a high at $1,698.50 and a low at $1,648.

Let's get our bearings. Where standeth gold? ABOVE its 200 DMA ($1,662.79), its 150 DMA ($1,678.06), its 20 DMA ($1,666.81) but below its 50 DMA ($1,696.57). MACD has turned up, RSI is rising, lark's on the wing and snail's on the thorn. It's springtime, come early. And today gold burst through the downtrend line from the November $1,755 high.

Yet stands in gold's road more resistance. Downtrend line from the October high at $1,798 stands about $1,715, and the GOLD PRICE ain't nothing till it clears that barrier.

But clearly it's working on it.

The SILVER PRICE rose 41.8 cents (1.34%) to close at 3149.8c and leave 3100c resistance in the dust.

Where in the world is silver? From a spike low to 2920c on 4 January silver has made a 45 degree rise up through its 200 DMA (3068c), its 300 DMA (3121c), its 20 DMA (3058c), and stands not far from its 50 DMA at 3198c. Yesterday it broke through the downtrend line from the November 3449c high.

That 50 DMA and 3200c resistance are the next hurdle.

Every day brings more and stronger confirmation that the 4 January lows were the bottom of the correction. I have been buying and buying. Silver above 3200c and gold above $1,685 is a buy again tomorrow.

Big doings in today's markets, with news out of Germany about repatriating gold reserves and platinum running past gold for the first time since May 2012.

News out of the Deutsche Bundesbank announces they will re-arrange their gold storage (now 45% in New York, 13% in London, 11% in Paris, and 31% in Frankfurt). Exactly how they will re-arrange this storage wasn't declared. Gold shot up on this news because loads of suspicious folks believe that central banks have loaned out most of their gold and thus a large German repatriation would put pressure on the phantom supplies of central banks, including the Federal Reserve.

Now in America we always know how to tell when a federal government or Federal Reserve official is lying: his lips are moving. In Germany, however, government officials act differently. They lie in German.

What meaneth this hubbub about platinum rising above gold's price? Simply that the smaller, more volatile platinum GENERALLY (not always) trades higher than gold. It went below gold in August 2011, struggled into May 2012 to rise back to even, then couldn't hold there and fell to a July 2012 low of 85% of gold. That correction and struggle to advance generally signals trouble for silver and gold since folks expect platinum to trade above gold. When it doesn't, there's trouble in the air. By the same token, strong platinum promises strength in silver and gold, too.

But one chigger maketh not a summer. Platinum must continue rising against gold or this signal stops flashing green.

Meanwhile the contemptible, scabby US dollar index rose 26.8 basis points (0.34%) to 79.767. Right now 79.80 resistance is stopping it like a Flit gun stops cockroaches. Not impressed: only bounced off the downtrend line it broke out of first of the year. Wait to see if it can come back. Bernanke cannot want a sharply higher dollar squeezing off American exports. When it comes to a choice between common sense and politics, politics always trumps.

After three days of sprinting, the euro backed off today to 1.3307, down 0.55%. Unless it closes below $1.3200 it's targeting $1.3500.

The Japanese Nice Government Man in charge of the economy (yes, this precisely resembles putting an alcoholic in charge of the wine cellar) caught markets by surprise by warning against a weaker yen. Since nothing happens in politics unless it's meant to happen, only an investor in government bonds would believe that this NGM just shot his mouth off accidentally. NGM feel the yen has fallen enough. Gained 0.82% today to 112.62 c/Y100. With a huge short position on board, any yen reversal should climb quick and mean as the shorts panic.

Aren't you glad you own silver and gold, so you don't have to worry about all the shabby tricks played by the gabby crooks who run these scabby currencies to dupe their victims into holding their flabby currencies?

Stocks inched up a little more today. Dow tested ground at 13,450, then climbed the rest of the day. Advanced 27.57 (0.2%) to 13,534.89. S&P gained only 0.11% (1.66) to 1,472.34.

I'm still puzzling over that Dow in gold chart. It made what looked like an island reversal top, then fainted like your self-confidence when somebody points out that lettuce stuck between your front teeth. But rather than follow through lower, in the first days of the year it soared, even gapped up to the downtrend line, where it has since bubbled like stew when the propane tank is nearly empty -- lower and lower all the time. And very gappy. Looks very indecisive and timid. If the Dow in Gold closes below 7.99 oz, the 20 DMA, then the plunge will be something to behold.

A similar pattern has painted the Dow in Silver chart, but it hath already broken down below the 20 dma (now 435.14), closing today at 431.53.

One final confirmation by the Dow in Gold will have both these indicators SCREAMING that silver and gold are about to surge against stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, January 14, 2013

The Gold Price Rose $8.90 Closing at $1,668.90 a Close Above $1,705 Will Be Confirmation to Buy More

Gold Price Close Today : 1,668.90
Gold Price Close 4-Jan-13 : 1,648.10
Change : 20.80 or 1.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 3108
Silver Price Close 4-Jan-13 : 2989.6
Change : 118.40 or 4.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 53.697
Gold Silver Ratio 4-Jan-13 : 55.128
Change : -1.43 or -2.6%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01862
Silver Gold Ratio 4-Jan-13 : 0.01814
Change : 0.00048 or 2.7%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 167.31
Dow in Gold Dollars 4-Jan-13 : $ 168.52
Change : -$1.21 or -0.7%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 8.094
Dow in Gold Ounces 4-Jan-13 : 8.152
Change : -0.06 or -0.7%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 434.60
Dow in Silver Ounces 4-Jan-13 : 449.40
Change : -14.80 or -3.3%

Dow Industrial : 13,507.32
Dow Industrial 4-Jan-13 : 13,435.21
Change : 72.11 or 0.5%

S&P 500 : 1,470.68
S&P 500 4-Jan-13 : 1,466.47
Change : 4.21 or 0.3%

US Dollar Index : 79.518
US Dollar Index 4-Jan-13 : 80.491
Change : -0.973 or -1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,656.30
Platinum Price Close 4-Jan-13 : 1,555.20
Change : 101.10 or 6.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 702.55
Palladium Price Close 4-Jan-13 : 687.80
Change : 14.75 or 2.1%

The silver and GOLD PRICE felt pretty perky today. Silver tucked away 71.3 cents in its purse to close at 3108c. Gold added $8.90 to $1,668.9.

Since I was gone most of last week, today I'm giving y'all a review of the last six day's trading. Notice the gains silver and gold have gotten not clear of the woods yet, but at least free from the witch's house, at least. Stocks continued to rise, while the dollar spread its wings to fly and all the feathers fell off.

The gold and SILVER PRICE are a little out of sync. Today's gold show was welcome, pretty, etc., etc., but settled nothing. It did take the GOLD PRICE over its 20 day moving average ($1,666.92) but not by much -- two bucks. To convince the doubters, gold must climb above the last high at $1,695.40, and before that the early December low at $1,684.10.

On the sunny side, gold has formed a large falling wedge, which generally breaks out to the upside. Also, the spike low to $1,626 on 4 January prompted a big rally, and that day closed $23 higher than that low.

Friday, I should not overlook, it appears the Nice Government Men or other crooks who run the rigged games in Washington and Wall Street, struck about 9:30 a.m. and slammed gold down on the heels of the rally that had taken it to a $1,677.30 close on Thursday. No matter, gold's sinew was proven by today's comeback. It was, however, stopped at $1,675, so twould be nice if gold would oblige us by closing above that mark tomorrow.

The SILVER PRICE is tugging at the leash and longing to run upward. The GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell today to 53.697 from Friday's 54.665, down 1.8%.

There's more, too. Silver closed ABOVE 3100c. High came at 3114.1c, but silver held on to most of its gain. Needs to build on that gain tomorrow.

More witnesses are testifying that the lows on 4 January were the lows for the silver and gold corrections that began in October. But whether they are OR NOT, y'all need to get your heads straight about these corrections, fluctuations, and disappointments: they don't mean a hill of beans to us. All the loss there is IMAGINARY, just like every gain is imaginary until you in fact sell. If you bought silver at 880c in November 2008, you haven't lost a blessed thing in all these fluctuations, just the imaginary sting of marking to market.

What's the point? That we are NOT following a day-trading strategy, so it isn't fit to focus on daily changes. We are following a PRIMARY TREND STRATEGY, which means we climb on to that bull and ride him until he falls over. We don't blow a lot of money by trading in and out, we just hold on to the bull and ride that rascal.

And that also means that about now is the time to buy more. Or you can wait till silver climbs over 3200c and gold above $1,705 and you have more confirmation in hand.

Don't miss what platinum and palladium have done. Platinum rose $27 today to just about close the gap with gold. Y'all remember that the platinum/gold spread went negative back in October 2011, and save for a few weeks it barely poked its head above even, stayed there. Looks like the opportunity to swap gold for platinum that I mentioned several times has just about passed. I would call a move of the platinum/ gold spread to be bullish for all metals.

Palladium has dropped as low at $667 on 8 January, but has climbed back nearly $40. I don't trade palladium because it's too quirky and herky-jerky for my taste, but a close above $728 (early 2012 high) would release palladium from its long imprisonment.

US DOLLAR INDEX has given up all the gains of its rally in 2013's early days, and fallen back -- not quite through -- the downtrend line it broke for that rally. That line stands about 79.40, so a close below that gainsays further rallying. A close below 79 sends the dollar searching for the bottom of the Marianas Trench. Clawed back 12.1 basis points today to close at 79.518.

While the dollar suffers the euro exhilarates. Last week rallied up through its 20 day moving average and gained from $1.3065 to $1.3381. Rose 0.29% today alone. Aiming for $1.3500, maybe $1.3600

Is there no bottom for the yen? Today it made a new low and closed at 111.70 cents/Y100, down another 0.39% today. Everybody in the known world and remote parts of Antarctica must be short the yen. And look -- the Japanese politicians and the Bank of Japan have accomplished their purpose -- running down the yen's exchange rate -- without moving anything but their jaws. Neat, huh?

US$1 =Y89.53=E0.7473=0.032 175 oz. silver= 0.000 599 oz. gold.

Just to catch y'all up, that breakout of the 10 year bond yield has now toughed back to the downtrend line. 'Tis wholly unclear as yet whether this marks the long-awaited bursting of the bond bubble.

STOCKS just keep on a-bubbling and a-bubbling, with ne'er a sign of any economic basis for the mania. Never mind, we live in the Age of Illusions where only appearances count (as opposed to an Age of Allusion, where only literary references count).

Dow today rose 18.89 (0.14%) to climb past the 13,500 milestone and rest at 13,507.32. S&P500 lost 1.37 to $1,470.68. I still expect that both of them will gain more yet, probably hitting or exceeding the old highs. This move will run out of steam by April Fools Day.

Do not miss this fact: the Dow measured either in gold or in silver has fallen in the last 6 trading days. No new highs in store there.

Susan and I were in Chattanooga on Thursday and got to eat with restaurant entrepreneur Lawton Haygood and his wife Karen at his Boathouse restaurant perched alongside the Tennessee River. Most restaurants, even the chi-chi pricey ones, are a disappointment. Food all tastes the same, because the chefs are all cribbing out of the same magazines. But the Boathouse has flavors you won't find anyplace else. One reason is that Lawton invented a wood fired cookstove that allows cooking over a red oak fire -- directly. And wood smoke does something to seafood that carries it smack up to heaven. If y'all EVER get within 200 miles of Chattanooga, don't miss the Boathouse. But if they're too crowded, visit Lawton's other restaurant, Sugar's Ribs, and order the "Romaine is burning" -- half a head of romaine flash cooked over a wood fire, then garnished with pumpkin and sunflower seeds. My, O, my! We ate there, too.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.