Tuesday, April 30, 2013

One More Plunge in Gold Prices — Just to Prove the Bottom has Feet

Gold Price Close Today : 1472.20
Change : 4.80 or 0.33%

Silver Price Close Today : 24.144
Change : 0.022 or 0.09%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.976
Change : 0.143 or 0.24%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01640
Change : -0.000039 or -0.24%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1505.40
Change : -0.20 or -0.01%

Palladium Price Close Today : 696.70
Change : -1.40 or -0.20%

S&P 500 : 1,597.57
Change : 3.96 or 0.25%

Dow In GOLD$ : $208.37
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.080
Change : 0.363 or 3.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 614.64
Change : 0.31 or 0.05%

Dow Industrial : 14,839.80
Change : 21.05 or 0.14%

US Dollar Index : 81.69
Change : -0.445 or -0.54%

The silver and GOLD PRICES are blowing hot and cold out of both sides of their mouth. Gold rose $4.80 today to $1,472.20 while silver rose a measly 2.2 cents to 2414.4c. Gold looks to be knocking on a $1,476 ceiling, while silver appears to have peaked yesterday.

The SILVER PRICE must not sink below 2400c, lest it suffer another cascade. Gold needs to hang on above $1,450. I'm sure the problem with the silver and gold prices (and gold is leading right now) is that the approaching $1,500 mark is wearing at gold like Kryptonite wears on Superman. I still incline to one more plunge, whether to a slightly lower or slightly higher low I don't know, just to prove the bottom has feet. THEN, oh, THEN y'all will see silver and gold begin to rise once more.

Why can't I believe the Masters of the Universe and Nice Government Men when they keep repeating that "every day in every way the economy is getting better and better"? I might jes' be a natural born fool who don't know no better than to doubt his betters, but then again, maybe their horns don't toot in tune.

Take today, bless their tiny bureaucratic hearts! The media is just a bustin' their propaganda buttons over the Case-Shiller Price Index jumping 9.3% year over year. Now I just worked up that graph (I'm a fool, but I can work Excel) and that index looks none too healthy, although the 12 month rate of change is rising. However, the very same day my Masters tell me how good the housing industry is, a local builder tells me (1) home building is as bad as he's ever seen it, (2) it's not getting better, (3) no such thing as building houses on speculation any more, and (4) only the most financially secure people can get mortgages to build now.

Who's a natural born fool to believe? Them known liars on Wall Street and in Washington? Why, they while away their time pulling the wings off flies! Or should I believe a man of proven integrity and truthfulness? Y'all tell me, 'cause I jes' can't figure it out.

Stocks enjoyed a bold day, both closing on their highs. This would be a good place for them to press higher, but a more likely place for them to fail.

S&P500 rose 5.03 (0.25%) to 1,597.57, a new all-time high. Gainsaying its little brother, the Dow didn't reach a new high, but closed at 14,839.80, up 21.05 (0.14%). (Dow's all-time intraday high came 11 April at 14,887.51, high close same day at 14,864.14.). I told y'all a while ago it's too hard for me to parse mania markets, so I will just say, Don't expect this to end well, but in weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth.

I don't know. Maybe I misjudged the euro. Maybe it ain't sorry as gully dirt after all -- but don't y'all bet on that. It did break out over its downtrend line today, which I should have foreseen yesterday when it hit that 62 DMA. Truth to tell, I just don't care that much what one scurvy, scrofulous fiat currency or the other does. It's like watching dinosaurs die and betting which one will go extinct first.

Euro rose 0.54% today, a sizeable jump, to close near its $1.3086 high at $1.3170. If the scurvo -- make that euro -- can get past $1.3200, it can run, but that level might stop it cold.

Japanese yen rose 0.34% today to close at 102.65 cents/Y100. It, too, today closed above its downtrend line. I would no more bet on that than I would be fitted for a wooden leg. No telling what those NGM will do. Don't trust 'em.

US DOLLAR INDEX was today's sickest sufferer. Dropped 44.5 basis points (0.57%) to 81.693, below support it had to hold if it intended to rally. Hate to call anything the NGM are steadily manipulating, but if this were a real market, today's weakness and close way below the 50 DMA yesterday would send it dropping like a hand axe off a tree-climbing West Coast lumberjack.

Whoops! Looky there! The Dow and S&P500 are a-making new highs, but the Dow in Silver (613.6 oz today, up 1.38%) and the Dow in gold (10.08 oz today, up 0.37%) ain't. In fact, they are still a-downtrending. Stocks have turned down against gold and silver, a very good, a splendid sign.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Monday, April 29, 2013

Both the Silver and Gold Prices Momentum is Up Higher Prices to Come

Gold Price Close Today : 1467.40
Change : 13.80 or 0.95%

Silver Price Close Today : 24.122
Change : 0.364 or 1.53%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.832
Change : -0.351 or -0.57%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01644
Change : 0.000094 or 0.58%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1505.60
Change : 30.40 or 2.06%

Palladium Price Close Today : 698.10
Change : 17.25 or 2.53%

S&P 500 : 1,593.61
Change : 11.37 or 0.72%

Dow In GOLD$ : $208.76
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.099
Change : 0.363 or 3.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 614.33
Change : -4.94 or -0.80%

Dow Industrial : 14,818.75
Change : 106.20 or 0.72%

US Dollar Index : 82.15
Change : -0.560 or -0.68%

The silver and GOLD PRICES mildly surprised me today since I thought they would take a breather after last week's rise. Gold gained $13.80 to $1,467.40, yet managed not to exceed Friday's high. Today's high reached only $1,476.62, lower by $6.02 from Friday's $1,482.64.

Gold's momentum is up, but mercy! Every young pup commodity trader in the universe is waiting to short gold around $1,500, after that terrible break on 12 April. That, and scared longs who will be selling to get out at the highest possible price, are waiting to sell gold at $1,500. That builds a big barrier in front of any advance.

The SILVER PRICE in the same boat, only more so. Gained 36.4 cents today to close Comex at 2412.2c. Put that into perspective: the 20 DMA stands above at 2510c, support/resistance about 2650c. Silver has some tough slogging through deep mire to clear those barriers. However, higher aftermarket prices point to higher prices tomorrow.

But I've been thinking about the silver and gold prices. Fact is, I've been thinking about little else. Ever as bruised and battered as they are, the bull market is not over, and won't be over until the Masters of the Universe now printing money and bailing themselves out finally run out of manipulating-printing-austerity-imposing-bank-bailing room and run their faces slap-dab against the wall. It will happen. I trust arrogance. Arrogance never learns, and it never fails. Y'all keep on buying silver and gold, because every silver and gold purchase is a vote against the Masters of the Universe.

Speaking of that, Bill Rice of Montgomery today wrote me about the "Buy Silver on May 1st" campaign. Y'all have to realize that the currency and financial system all rest on the same foundation: confidence. It is a confidence game, as in "con-game," and we are all being conned. Any effort that encourages people to escape the confidence game and disentangle some resources from that system is okay by me.

Why, that stock market steamroller jes' keeps on a-rollin'! Dow today rose 106.2 (0.72%) on no news worthy of note other than lying government reports and straws in the wind. Never mind, it's enough that it has been rising and will keep rising, Amen. S&P500 gained 0.72% also (11.37) to 1,593.61, and missed its all-time intraday high of a few days ago by a gnat's whisker. It also (ho-hum) closed at another new all time high close.

Yet things are not what they seem. Dow in gold rose 0.36% today to 10.10 oz (G$208.79 gold dollars), and in spite rising stocks, remains in a down trend, now down about 10% from its high on 15 April and closing in on the trend-changing 20 day moving average.

Meanwhile the Dow in Silver also rose 0.45% to 513.21 ounces, yet it, too, remains in a downtrend, revealing stocks losing value against metals.

The euro was helped, momentarily, by Italy's finally forming a government. All things considered, that exactly reverses a rational conclusion. Lo, don't we know that Italian government has taken on so much debt that the economy is sinking, even while Italians are some of the most imaginative and entrepreneurial people on earth? Wouldn't any rational person conclude that the best possible thing that could happen to Italy is for the politicians to wrangle four or five years and never form a government? Shucks, any rational person long ago concluded that the very best thing Italy could do is default on its debt, let the banks take the hit for their own bad judgement, and let the country get back to work with lower taxes.

But there ain't a soul in currency markets or government who thinks that way, so the goofy euro, the liger or geep of currencies, the sterile hybrid of abstractions, rose 0.52% to $1.3100 and leapt in a single bound from its 20 and 50 DMAs to its 62dma. Look for $1.3128 to stop it cold, or, if it sneaks past there, $1.3202, both recent highs.

The grossly oversold yen is trying to rise, but today got feet tangled in its 20 dma (102.08) and ended up down 0.33% at 102.32 cents/Y100.

US Dollar index fell a meaty 56 basis points today or 0.2% to 82.152. Don't count the dollar down until it closes below 82, say, below 81.80.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Friday, April 26, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Posted the First Half of Key Reversals Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1,453.60
Gold Price Close 19-Apr-13 : 1,395.30
Change : 58.30 or 4.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.758
Silver Price Close 19-Apr-13 : 22.955
Change : 0.803 or 3.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.184
Gold Silver Ratio 19-Apr-13 : 60.784
Change : 0.40 or 0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01634
Silver Gold Ratio 19-Apr-13 : 0.01645
Change : -0.00011 or -0.7%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 209.23
Dow in Gold Dollars 19-Apr-13 : $ 215.53
Change : -$6.30 or -2.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 10.121
Dow in Gold Ounces 19-Apr-13 : 10.426
Change : -0.30 or -2.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 619.27
Dow in Silver Ounces 19-Apr-13 : 633.74
Change : -14.47 or -2.3%

Dow Industrial : 14,712.55
Dow Industrial 19-Apr-13 : 14,547.51
Change : 165.04 or 1.1%

S&P 500 : 1,582.24
S&P 500 19-Apr-13 : 1,555.25
Change : 26.99 or 1.7%

US Dollar Index : 82.501
US Dollar Index 19-Apr-13 : 82.729
Change : -0.228 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,475.20
Platinum Price Close 19-Apr-13 : 1,423.30
Change : 51.90 or 3.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 680.85
Palladium Price Close 19-Apr-13 : 675.90
Change : 4.95 or 0.7%

Yesterday silver and GOLD PRICES soared, today they glided down. Gold lost $8.20 and closed Comex at $1,453.60. Silver gave back 38.2 cents (of yesterday's 130.7 cent gain) to close Comex at 2375.8c.

Silver and gold prices posted the first half of key reversals today, a new intraday high for the move with a close lower than yesterday's. A close on Monday lower than today's would forecast lower prices.

All here hinges on which of two outcomes ensures, (1) a recovery above the cliff metals fell from or (2) a fall to a double bottom or lower low. This week gold merely recovered a bit more than 50% of its fall from 12 April, silver about 45%. So far, that's only a normal correction, and leans toward yet another drop.

To repair the damage done by the great fall, gold must close above $1,550 without any equivocation. The SILVER PRICE must close above 2950c.

Will silver and GOLD PRICES plunge to lower lows? Three witnesses argue against that, the Dow/Gold, the Dow/Silver, and the GOLD/SILVER RATIO. Stocks have turned down against metals, and the gold/silver ratio has turned lower. All three of those are aligned for strength in silver and gold. By the way, the gold/silver ratio is still high enough to make swaps from gold into silver very attractive.

I no more know how long it will take silver and gold prices to recover than I know how to shear a hog. May is often not a happy month for metals, yearly lows often fall in June or early July, and August cyclically they turn and begin a rally into the fall. Generally. Usually. Except when they don't.

I am certain of this: the gold and silver price primary uptrend (bull market) has not ended, any more than the primary downtrend (bear market) in stocks has ended. These are the PRIMARY trends, and despite up or down phases, over the years these trends will express themselves plainly.

It was a better week for the silver and gold prices, but turmoil hath not yet passed. Stocks rose, but notice that the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver sank, meaning that silver and gold rose faster than stocks, a portentous outcome. And the US Nice Government Men are doing a great job of keeping the dollar down, while carrying like Atlas the whole plumb-broke world on their shoulders.

Today all the stock indices except the Potemkin Dow declined. Dow rose an infinitesimal 11.75 (0.08%) to 14,712.55, but "it finished the week higher," reflecting credit on the Nice Government Men. S&P declined slightly, down 2.92 (0.18%) to 1,582.24.

Both indices are a hard to parse here, but both are correcting. Both ended this week above their 20 day moving averages, which leaves their momentum up temporarily, although technically both are in a down trend (lower low and lower high in sequence). You all may think I'm crazy, but as sure as ax heads don't float, stocks will yet this year come down with a mighty crash. I am not tempted to share that experience.

Dow in Gold rose a little today, up 0.95% to 10.12 oz (G$209.20 gold dollars) but remains in a down trend. 20 DMA stands at 9.90. Dow in Silver rose 2.34% to 619.27 oz, but also still trendeth down. Breach of 600.00 oz. will accelerate the fall.

Miss not, neither pass by, what this signifieth: the trend of stocks gaining value against silver and gold has been broken in favor of silver and gold. I remind y'all that when stocks peaked against gold in August 1999, that was our sign and warning that stocks were peaking. The Dow did not top until January 2000 at 11,722, but the Dow in Gold never reached higher than that August 1999 high. Dow/Gold and Dow/Silver are VERY reliable forward indicators for stocks and metals.

Currencies are moving sideways. Yen closed up today 1.33% at 102.05 cents/Y100, and pierced but closed not above its 20 DMA (102.33). Clearly the loonies who manage the yen are managing it lower. And speaking of loonies, the euro moved a little today, up 0.13% to $1.3028 from yesterday's $1.3010, and closed above its 20 DMA ($1.3015). Doesn't look ready to run away anywhere. Next big move will most likely be gravity-ward.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Thursday, April 25, 2013

Both the Silver and Gold Price Rose Today Gold Adding $38.40 Closing at $1,461.80

Gold Price Close Today : 1461.80
Change : 38.40 or 2.70%

Silver Price Close Today : 24.140
Change : 1.307 or 5.72%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.555
Change : -1.785 or -2.86%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01651
Change : 0.000473 or 2.95%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1462.80
Change : 33.00 or 2.31%

Palladium Price Close Today : 680.20
Change : 13.75 or 2.06%

S&P 500 : 1,585.16
Change : 6.37 or 0.40%

Dow In GOLD$ : $207.89
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.74%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.057
Change : 0.363 or 3.74%

Dow in SILVER oz : 608.98
Change : -33.79 or -5.26%

Dow Industrial : 14,700.80
Change : 24.50 or 0.17%

US Dollar Index : 82.76
Change : 0.177 or 0.21%

Both the silver and GOLD PRICE rose today, but silver with more gusto. Gold added $38.40 (2.7%) to $1,461.80 and silver rose 130.7 cents (5.7%) to 2414c.

On the way down gold left an up glitch at $1,475-$1,490, and today's high stopped at $1,467.88. Frankly, this is not much to go on for forecasting. Gold might rally all the way to $1,540, through its 20DMA (1,492.35) and still fall back to confirm its bottom, or fall lower. We can't know until we see how it behaves at $1,500.

This leaves me in a conundrum: buy some or wait. What if it DOESN'T come back? What if it keeps on rising through $1,540? Well, I reckon I'll buy some then.

The SILVER PRICE performance today lends more weight and credibility to both metals. MACDs for both have turned up, and they are moving in unison. GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell today to 60.555 from 62.340 yesterday, a huge 10.5%. More, silver broke above 2380c resistance.

All this is positive, but I want more proof we won't see one more plunge. Sorry -- once burned, twice shy.

Frankly, I don't feel like saying a word today. I know y'all think of "equities" when I write "stock," but I think first of "cattle, sheep, and pigs." Some family dogs got into our sheep pasture last night and killed six sheep. Got caught at it, and so solved the mystery of what happened to the other six a few days ago. We lost sheep and family pets. Death in no way ever goes down easy. Never.

TODAY'S MARKETS:

Stocks rose a little today, but nothing to kiss Mama over. Dow added 24.50 (0.17%, get out your microscope) to close 14,700.80. S&P500 gained 6.37 (0.4%) to 1,585.16. Both markets remain above their 20 day moving averages, the S&P500 more enthusiastically. It has nearly reached its previous intraday high of 1,597.35. Dow remains a long ways from that 14,887.51 comparable high.

Both silver and gold rose like maniacs today, so the Dow in Silver and Dow in Gold took another tumble. Dow/Silver lost 4.36% to close at 608.98 oz. (remember, when it falls it means silver is gaining value on stocks). Dow in Gold lost 2.03% to 10.06 oz (G$207.96 gold dollars). Both are drawing nigh to their 20 DMAs below (9.85 oz and 578.59 oz.)

Bear in mind that the Dow/Silver and Dow/Gold can fall manydifferent ways mathematically. Important point is that stocks are losing value against metal, pointing to a bottom in metals and a top in stocks.

US Dollar Index rose 17.7 basis points (0.23%) to 82.760, but still failed to clarify its intent. Needs to close above 83+ tomorrow to confirm it means to go higher. Euro was crushed today, down only 0.05% to $1.3010, but crushed because it reached as high as $1.3094 then crashed back almost to the 20DMA at $1.3004. Yen remains flat at 100.72 cents/Y100.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

The Gold Price is Pushing Upwards Trading as High as $1,431.78

Gold Price Close Today : 1,423.40
Change : 14.80 or 1.05%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.83
Change : 0.02 or 0.07%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.340
Change : 0.605 or 0.98%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.0160
Change : -0.0002 or -0.97%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,429.80
Change : 13.00 or 0.92%

Palladium Price Close Today : 666.45
Change : -5.70 or -0.85%

S&P 500 : 1,578.79
Change : 0.01 or 0.00%

Dow In GOLD$ : $213.14
Change : $7.50 or 3.65%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.31
Change : 0.36 or 3.65%

Dow in SILVER oz : 642.77
Change : 1.44 or 0.22%

Dow Industrial : 14,676.30
Change : 43.16 or 0.29%

US Dollar Index : 82.91
Change : -0.11 or -0.13%

Metals came back today but with a quirk, the GOLD PRICE gained $14.80 (1.05%) to $1,423.40, highest close of this recovery. But that was the Comex close, and in the aftermarket it is trading at $1,427.50. On Comex silver closed up only 1.6 cents to 2283.3, but is up 1% over yesterday in the aftermarket, at 2305c. Paint the tape, anyone?

The GOLD PRICE hit today's low about 8:00 a.m. NY time at $1,419.06. About 8:30 it gapped up to $1,428, then hit its high at $1,431.78. Rest of the day was spent oscillating between $1,429 and $1,422. Now it has gapped up again above $1,430. This doesn't match Monday's $1,436.84 high, but certainly is pushing toward it.

Now that Monday high has become the resistance. Gold must close above that to signal that it will continue rising. The MACD is rising swiftly as is the RSI. The question remains, what will gold do when it reaches $1,525?

The SILVER PRICE had a flattish day, ranging from 2286 to 2330. It was all over the place, but with an upward turn after 2:00 p.m. Wasn't it ODD that silver closed up only 1.6 cents on the Comex, but in the aftermarket is trading now at 2314.5, up 33.2 cents? Shucks, I don't know WHAT that means.

Y'all just be patient here. Silver & gold primary uptrend is not broken, bull market has not ended, and both metals will return for fireworks before long. Meantime, keep watching for another buying opportunity.

Something smells of mackerel. Stock indices today closed mixed with the Dow down and the S&P500 up 0.01 point. Several other indices fell. I am always suspicious of a two day close at the same price. It usually promiseth no good thing.

Dow closed down 43.16 (0.29%) at 14,676.30. S&P500 closed at 1,578.79. After yesterday's punch & close through the 20 DMA, the Dow fell back today, but still lodged above that 20 DMA. Might be the limit of this little 4 day rally, might not. Yesterday some clown hacked the Associated Press website and put out a false report that terrorists had attacked the White House (how anybody could tell, I don't know, since the chief terrorists already lives there). Stock market plunged 150 points on that news, but came back when the rumor proved false. Jumpy, I'd say.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver resumed their fall today. Dow in gold closed 10.25 oz (G$212.09 gold dollars), down 1.46%. Dow in silver closed 636.72 oz, down 0.81%.

Currencies were quiet today. US dollar bounced off the egg shell of that dome it has formed, but that might just be the dollar taking a good run at that resistance. Closed 82.910, down 11.1 basis points or 0.14%.

Euro rose barely, from $1.3000 to $1.3016, up 0.12%. Yen remained flat at 100.48 cents/Y100.

I remind y'all that flat markets don't necessarily mean dead markets. It might be flat because nobody cares to buy or sell, or it might be flat because buying & selling are matched, forces waiting for an edge.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

The Gold Price Fell $12.40 Can it Hold Above $1,400?

Gold Price Close Today : 1408.60
Change : -12.40 or -0.87%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.813
Change : -0.507 or -2.17%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.745
Change : 0.811 or 1.33%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01620
Change : -0.000215 or -1.31%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1416.80
Change : -19.00 or -1.32%

Palladium Price Close Today : 672.15
Change : -8.60 or -1.26%

S&P 500 : 1,578.78
Change : 16.28 or 1.04%

Dow In GOLD$ : $216.01
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.60%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.450
Change : 0.363 or 3.60%

Dow in SILVER oz : 645.22
Change : 20.56 or 3.29%

Dow Industrial : 14,719.46
Change : 152.29 or 1.05%

US Dollar Index : 83.01
Change : 0.352 or 0.43%

Today the GOLD PRICE lost $12.40 (0.9%) to $1,408.60 but silver stumbled 50.7 cents (2.2%) to 2281.3c.

The GOLD PRICE today ran out of shorts covering, hit $1,427, and busted its nose on the wall. Well, it wasn't that bad since gold found footing about $1,406.70 and didn't offer to break lower. This is that first reaction after five rising days, as I mentioned yesterday. Gold is trying to turn up, at least the MACD is, but lets see how it deals with more hostility in a correction. Can it hold above $1,400?

The SILVER PRICE is flirting with last week's 2255.6c low. Today it hit 2265.9c, dropped 50.7c, and volume rose. Not a promising mixture. Could get slammed hard tomorrow. Of course, how it withstands that will tell us a lot about how long this pain will last.

R.I.P, Howard Phillips. At age 72 he passed peacefully away on 20 April. In his long life working in and around politics, he was the anomaly: he always put principles before politics or personal advancement. Nixon named him head of the Office of Economic Opportunity, then welched on his promise to shut it down, so Howard resigned. In 1974 he left the Republican party because it had failed to uphold conservative principles.

All of these things mark Howard Phillips as an exceptional man, but he stands out in my heart for another reason. When the IRS was trying to bury me because I had started a gold and silver bank, and the whole world was running away from me as fast as their chicken legs could carry them, Howard Phillips never did. He was a man of magnificent integrity.

TODAY'S MARKETS:

Another tedious day.

Stocks turned and rallied largely. Dow rose 1.05% (152.29) to 14,719.46 while the S&P500 rose 1.04% (16.28) to 1,578.78. Both closed above their 20 day moving averages. Unless the Dow can close above the last high (14,887.51) this will remain a reaction in a downtrend from that high.

Dow in gold broke its five day downtrend by rising today to 10.42 oz (G$215.40 gold dollars). This doesn't alter the downtrend, only zigs against its zag -- normal reaction. Dow in Silver rose, too, to 641.93 ounces (+2.3%). It's more equivocal than gold, but still appears to have topped.

US dollar Index rose to 83.005, up 35.2 basis points or 0.45%. Dollar got a boost overnight in European trading, jumping from 82.50 to 82.95 in half an hour while all the hyenas in New York were still sleeping. In US trading it oscillated from 82.85 to 83.05. A strong close above 83 takes the dollar into a new upleg.

Euro ate something that didn't agree with it and looks sick. Closing at $1.3000 (down 0.49%) today, it's below its 50 DMA ($1.3058) and barely above its 20 DMA ($1.2985). Nor is the 200 DMA far off, at $1.2903. A fall through $1.3000, which looks certain for tomorrow, with scatter all the euros fans and attract the short sellers.

Yen remains flat, down today 0.18% at 100.57 cents/Y100.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Monday, April 22, 2013

Has the Gold Price Bull Market Ended? No for Several Reasons

Gold Price Close Today : 1,421.00
Gold Price Close 12-Apr-13 : 1,501.00
Change : -80.00 or -5.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.32
Silver Price Close 12-Apr-13 : 26.322
Change : -3.002 or -11.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.935
Gold Silver Ratio 12-Apr-13 : 57.025
Change : 3.91 or 6.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01641
Silver Gold Ratio 12-Apr-13 : 0.01754
Change : -0.00113 or -6.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 211.91
Dow in Gold Dollars 12-Apr-13 : $ 204.72
Change : $7.19 or 3.5%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 10.251
Dow in Gold Ounces 12-Apr-13 : 9.903
Change : 0.35 or 3.5%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 624.66
Dow in Silver Ounces 12-Apr-13 : 564.74
Change : 59.93 or 10.6%

Dow Industrial : 14,567.17
Dow Industrial 12-Apr-13 : 14,865.06
Change : -297.89 or -2.0%

S&P 500 : 1,562.50
S&P 500 12-Apr-13 : 1,588.85
Change : -26.35 or -1.7%

US Dollar Index : 82.649
US Dollar Index 12-Apr-13 : 82.117
Change : 0.532 or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,435.80
Platinum Price Close 12-Apr-13 : 1,495.30
Change : -59.50 or -4.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 680.75
Palladium Price Close 12-Apr-13 : 707.95
Change : -27.20 or -3.8%

Above is the GOLD PRICE from Friday a week ago until today. That misses the deepest lows for silver and gold which came last Monday ($1,360.96 gold low) and Tuesday (silver low 2255.6 cents). While silver and gold took their worst beating since 1980, maybe nobody noticed stocks rolling over. US dollar remains equivocal, may be turning up.

The GOLD PRICE today climbed $25.70 to end at $1,421 while silver gained 36.5 cents to end at 2332 cents.

Gold hit $1,423.80 on Friday, and sent the shorts scattering when it gapped up from $1,400 to $1,410. Bears fought back, driving gold down enough to fill that gap, but then today it climbed sharply to $1,421.00.

Gold has been massively, grotesquely oversold but today doesn't even quite recapture 50% of its loss. How far down was it kicked? 20 DMA stands overhead at $1,517.53. Let's see how it behaves on the first reaction from this climb that lasted all but one day of last week (but that day was a killer.) MACD is trying to hook upward.

But get this clear: gold might rally up to $1,500 - $1,525 and still turn and make another, lower bottom.

The SILVER PRICE has been battered much worse than gold. Right now it needs to climb above 2400 cents to regain any credibility.

One trade I continue to recommend is swapping gold for silver. The GOLD/SILVER RATIO has now climbed nearly to 61:1, retracing 61.8% of its fall from the 2008 high at 84. With that trade comes the risk it races further to 72 or higher.

Worst face of trading is to control the panic and euphoria in your own breast. Is it bravery or foolhardiness? You have to suck in your breath and close you eyes and sell when its high and buy when its low, all the while trying to fight off the lemming inside that finds safety only with the crowd. Against that courage you have to weigh stubborn stupidity, that dares you to act blindly, or keeps you from facing facts. Maybe y'all can walk through that emotional minefield without any explosions, but I find it taxing.

Bottom line: Long term primary uptrend (bull market) in silver and gold has NOT ended. No telling yet how long metals will need to overcome this blow and exceed old highs. Somewhere here, however, lies a historical buying opportunity -- for the brave.

Will Rogers said, "You can't break a man that don't borrow." That's why I never recommend leverage. If you have bought physical silver or gold and paid for it fully, these declines are painful, but not fatal. While I completely missed anticipating this big break, it would not have changed my recommendations because trading in and out has never been my strategy. In hindsight, of course, the "sell the peaks buy the lows" idea looks pretty obvious, but it never does while unfolding. Thus you sell what you THINK is the peak, only to see the market shoot upward away from you. Or you sell a low expecting it to go lower, and it reverses.

Rather, a strategy that follows the primary uptrend (bull market) buys and holds for the final peak. That one we have targeted for a 16:1 gold/silver ratio and 2 oz or less of gold to buy the Dow.

Big question torturing every gold and silver owner right now: HAS THE BULL MARKET ENDED? No, for several reasons.

1. Manner of decline. Bull markets end in a blow-off top, travelling straight up with ridiculous gains day to day. In 1980, gold gained 265% from 22 January 1979 to the peak on 21 January 1980; 113% in the last two months before the peak, and 74% in the last month. The following two years built no declining flat-bottomed triangle on the chart, but plunged, leaving a dramatic peak behind.

2. Price and Time. Last bull market gold rose 24.3 times its beginning price, silver rose 38-2/3 times. That bull market lasted about 20 years. This one is barely 12 years old, and highest gains so far have been about 6 times. Possible that would fulfill a primary trend, but not likely.

3. Cause unchanged. The cause of a bull market in silver and gold -- inflation -- has not abated. In fact, all the major central banks have embarked on unlimited inflation. Maybe they can tame that, but if they do they will have reversed cause and effect. They believe they are Masters of the Universe; I don't.

All the same, the waterfalls last week deeply wounded morale in silver and gold. They will need a while, maybe a long while, to recover. Gold fell nearly to a 50% correction of its 2008 - 2011 move; silver a little past 61.8%. Bad, but not fatal. Indeed, that could mark the limits of the fall, but there's no sign of that yet.

Does that mean I am ready to leap in and buy with both hands now? Nope, not yet. One last plunge is possible, but not certain -- possible enough to require proof of a reversal.

My mind is still nagging at the why -- why have commodities dropped across the board? Stocks are ailing, too. What are markets pointing at, a repeat of 2008, or something worse? The question hangs in the air, unanswered.

TODAY'S MARKETS:

Stocks rose a tad today, but peaked way back on 11 April and have been trending lower every since, lower even than their reversal-tripwire 20 day moving average. S&P500 closed up 0.47% (7.25) today at 1,562.50, Dow rose 0.14% (19.66) to 14,567.17.

Here's what may faze you: the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver, even through last week's terrible metals' cascade, have topped and kept on falling.

Wait! I forgot to mention that both were stopped around long term downtrend lines. For now, both are screaming that stocks have topped against silver and gold.

The US dollar index last week hit an internal support line at 81.80 and bounced back up. It has traced a rounding top, but if it crosses above 83.00 will break out upside with a target of 84 or higher. Dollar index closed today at 82.649, down 6.5 basis points (0.08%). Euro gained 0.11% to $1.3066, trending down now for a week and closing today on its 50 DMA. Yen flirteth yet with 100 cents to 100 yen, closing today up 0.24% at 100.74 cents/Y100.

US$1=Y99.26=E0.7653=0.042882 oz Ag=0.000704 oz Au.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Friday, April 19, 2013

The Gold Price Rose Today but Down 7.02 Percent for the Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1,395.60
Gold Price Close 12-Apr-13 : 1,501.00
Change : -105.40 or -7.02%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.96
Silver Price Close 12-Apr-13 : 26.322
Change : -3.362 or -12.77%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.78
Gold Silver Ratio 12-Apr-13 : 57.025
Change : 3.755 or 6.584%

Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

The Gold Price Rose $10.30 Today Closing at $1,392.50

Gold Price Close Today : 1392.50
Change : 10.30 or 0.75%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.24
Change : -0.06  or -0.27%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 59.91
Change : 0.60 or 1.01%

Franklin didn't post commentary today, if he posts later it will be available here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The Gold Price Closed Down at $1,382.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1382.20
Change : -4.60 or -0.33%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.31
Change : -0.32  or -1.36%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 59.3
Change : 0.61 or 1.04%

Franklin didn't post commentary today, if he posts later it will be available here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The Gold Price Gained $26.20 What is the Bigger Message Markets are Sending Us?

Gold Price Close Today : 1386.80
Change : 26.20 or 1.93%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.622
Change : 0.263 or 1.12%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.708
Change : 0.461 or 0.79%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01703
Change : -0.000135 or -0.79%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1450.00
Change : 25.80 or 1.81%

Palladium Price Close Today : 677.05
Change : 11.20 or 1.68%

S&P 500 : 1,574.57
Change : 22.21 or 1.43%

Dow In GOLD$ : $219.97
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.53%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.641
Change : 0.363 or 3.53%

Dow in SILVER oz : 624.70
Change : -0.28 or -0.04%

Dow Industrial : 14,756.78
Change : 157.58 or 1.08%

US Dollar Index : 81.80
Change : -0.522 or -0.63%

Cannot tell anything from bounces the silver and GOLD PRICE made today. A dead cat dropped from the 2nd story might have done as well. Gold gained $26.20 to $1,386.80 while silver rose 26.7c to 2362.2. The GOLD/SILVER RATIO, however, is only very slowly rising, today at 58.708.

At this point, another leg down is possible, taking the GOLD PRICE to $1,250. Today's high was $1,395.09, low came at $1,340.50. The SILVER PRICE high was 2379 and low 2255.6c. Can only wait for the picture to clear.

Let's take another view of the last few days' events, with another question in mind: What is the bigger message markets are sending us?

Yesterday the Dow lost 1.8% and the S&P500 2.3%, huge moves and easy to overlook in the shadow of gold and silver's plunge. More ominously, Copper, the canary in the economy's coal mine, broke down. Where copper, the bellwether, leads the economy will follow. Broke down from a huge head and shoulders top stretching back to 2009.

In summer 2008, Markets were hard to parse, sending messages that seemed to contradict themselves or make no sense. They were telling us a panic was brewing. What are they saying today?

For background, look at a 20 year stock chart, any index. That gigantic head and shoulders seems to make no sense, because it targets a price below zero. How could that come about? Yes . . . How indeed?

The long term US dollar index chart also has an enormous head and shoulders, targeting 40 or lower.

In 2008, stocks, gold, silver, everything except US dollars and those dollar proxies, US treasury securities, fell. Why? Because in a panic, people rush for LIQUIDITY, the most liquid instrument in the system, and that's "cash." For the present, "cash" means US dollars. Depending on circumstances, that might change.

Is another panic brewing? I don't know. I can say with some assurance that if Ben Bernanke weren't fearful of another panic, he wouldn't be throwing another 1.2 trillion bucks into circulation this year. He knows, as well as anyone, how fragile the entire system really is.

After the bond market locked up in Fall 1998, Willy Clinton went to the Wise Men of the CFR and convened the Financial Vulnerabilities Project to develop means to deal with the periodic financial panics. They met several times, even "war-gamed" crises at the Harold Pratt house in New York, and published a report, a model of turgidity, which I, glutton for punishment, read entire. I teased out two conclusions, no, make that "admissions."

1. The Masters of the Universe fear that a crisis one day will result in "systemic collapse," i.e., the entire global house of cards falls down.

2. Against panics they have only two weapons, Liquidity and Blarney. Liquidity is pouring tsunamis of new money into the system. Blarney is my polite word for their propaganda, trotting out Greenspan or Bernanke or O'Bama or Buffett or Soros or other apparatchiki to assure all the stampeding sheep that "the economy is basically sound and we have nothing to fear but fear itself" and such like lying clich├ęs.

In the past 40 years the crises have become more frequent and bigger -- bigger numbers, more participants. One day, maybe tomorrow, maybe 20 years from now, will come the panic that will overwhelm even liquidity and blarney.

After that day, everything will change. After that day, all the wet cardboard backdrop of control and stability will melt. Power will be re-distributed, and all wealth.

A sane man, a prudent man, has to ask himself what he will do when that day comes. More importantly, what will he do the next day, and all the days after.

Based on 6,500 years of human experience, I have always guessed/assumed/concluded that silver and gold would carry value even across the worst gulf of economic collapse. They have in the past, at least. Carrying capital across that gulf of panic has been one of my strongest arguments for silver and gold.

Will they in fact do that? I can't promise you that, nor can anyone else. We don't know the future, and it might turn out that the best carrier of value is cigarette papers to roll joints in, or half pints of whiskey. But I don't smoke dope and don't trust people who drink too much whiskey, so I'm left with silver and gold, and of course, the other metal, lead.

TODAY'S MARKETS:

Stocks broke badly yesterday with 90% down days. Both indices dipped beneath their 20 DMAs, but closed above them today. Looks like they broke yesterday, at least for this move.

Stocks bounced well today, Dow up 1.08% to 14,756.78 and S&P500 at 1,574.57, up 1.43%. Notwithstanding, they most likely broke yesterday and will move lower.

US Dollar Index closed below 82 and 81.80 support, losing 0.67% today or 52.2 basis points. This continues the fall off the rounding top. Watch that dollar, because sudden dollar strength might point to a panic.

Euro rose above its 62 DMA today to $1.3181, up 1.03%. Yen lost 1.01% to 102.53. Take no refuge in either.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Monday, April 15, 2013

The Gold Price Closed at $1,360.60

Gold Price Close Today : 1360.60
Change : -140.40 or -9.35%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.355
Change : -2.967 or -11.27%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 58.257
Change : 1.233 or 2.16%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01717
Change : -0.000371 or -2.12%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1424.20
Change : -71.10 or -4.75%

Palladium Price Close Today : 665.85
Change : -42.10 or -5.95%

S&P 500 : 1,552.30
Change : -36.49 or -2.30%

Dow In GOLD$ : $221.81
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.50%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.730
Change : 0.363 or 3.50%

Dow in SILVER oz : 625.10
Change : 60.36 or 10.69%

Dow Industrial : 14,599.20
Change : -265.86 or -1.79%

US Dollar Index : 82.37
Change : 0.103 or 0.13%

I'm writing Tuesday morning. In the 33 years I've been brokering silver and gold, there are five words I have never before yesterday heard from wholesalers: "We're not selling silver today." At least one major West coast retailer was not selling gold yesterday, and wholesalers well selling "as long as we can get it."

See how thin the physical silver and GOLD PRICE markets really are? By thin is mean that there is very little product in the pipeline. Wholesalers won't take any chances.

The market is backwardated, but the backwardation shows more in availability than in price. A "backwardation" occurs when the price of metals for immediate delivery climbs above the price for future delivery. Normally, the interest and storage cost of carrying metal for future delivery makes futures prices higher, so a backwardation reveals demand for immediate delivery greater than anyone can meet. In this case, you can't buy at ANY price.

It would be easy to draw the WRONG conclusion from the crash in silver and gold, namely, that the bull market has ended and Happy Money Pumping Days Are Here Again. Well, stop the band and think: if that were so, why did the Establishment need to crash silver and gold? Why make such a concerted effort -- SocGen and Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs downgrades and FOMC minutes leaked and all the rest -- to knock down silver and gold?

Because they're worried.

Ask yourself this question: if the US had the gold it claims, why did it tell the Germans, when they asked for their gold stored in the US, it would take seven years to return it?

Why? Bureaucratic maze? No airplanes to carry it? Why?

Why did the powers that be need to crash silver and gold? Why?

Go back to the touchstone of fundamentals, the reasons we began buying silver and gold in the first place. Ask if they have changed.

CENTRAL BANKING. Central banks and their fractional reserve banks create money out of thin air: INFLATION. Inflation makes money cheap, which causes bad investments and blows up bubbles, bubbles burst, panic ensure, they paper it over with more Liquidity and more Blarney, and they run the cycle again, stripping all you victims of your capital. Success begets excess.

Has the system changed? Has the monstrous, unimaginable debt burden been removed or written off? Or have they kept on papering it over with Quantitative Easing this and Stimulus that, blowing up another bubble in stocks?

MONETARY DEMAND, the demand for safety from this system, drives all silver and gold bull markets, and nothing else. Until the system changes -- and never mind the bloody raids the Establishment makes on silver and gold -- silver and gold will continue to rise.

THE BULL MARKET HAS NOT ENDED. SILVER and GOLD HAVE NOT TOPPED. The cause has not changed, the effect will not change.

I laugh at people worried about government confiscating their gold and silver. Why would they go to all the trouble to send out their thugs to collect it when all they have to do is manipulae the market down and people WILLINGLY turn in their silver and gold, at bargain prices. Why force them when you can trick them so easily?

The Establishment played this same trick in 1974-1976, driving gold down 47% immediately after ownership was "legalized." They did this in 2006, and I'm pretty sure they did it in 2008.

If the bull market has ended, why will no wholesalers sell silver? Why do retailers refuse to sell gold? Why does US 90% silver coin cost $3.50 over melt?

Yes, SILVER PRICE and GOLD PRICE have been wounded. Yes, it will take some time to recover, but ask yourself this: If you lived in Cyprus, would you rather have (a) electronic euros in a bank that you cannot withdraw, or (b) silver and gold in your hands, even though 20% lower than last week?

The Establishment's goal is to slowly pick your bones clean. Their chief means of bringing you into powerless serfdom is inflation and debt. Their system is breaking down, and silver and gold offer you a key to unlock your chains.

Do I understand the pain of market collapses? As keenly as every one of you, but I keep my eyes on the horizon. That's the only way you can prevent yourself being fooled, to your own destruction.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Friday, April 12, 2013

The Gold Price Broke it's Two Year Support and Must Turn Up Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1,501.00
Gold Price Close 5-Apr-13 : 1,575.40
Change : -74.40 or -4.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 26.322
Silver Price Close 5-Apr-13 : 27.201
Change : -0.879 or -3.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 57.025
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Apr-13 : 57.917
Change : -0.89 or -1.5%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01754
Silver Gold Ratio 5-Apr-13 : 0.01727
Change : 0.00027 or 1.6%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 204.72
Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Apr-13 : $ 191.12
Change : $13.60 or 7.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 9.903
Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Apr-13 : 9.245
Change : 0.66 or 7.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 564.74
Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Apr-13 : 535.47
Change : 29.27 or 5.5%

Dow Industrial : 14,865.06
Dow Industrial 5-Apr-13 : 14,565.25
Change : 299.81 or 2.1%

S&P 500 : 1,588.85
S&P 500 5-Apr-13 : 1,553.28
Change : 35.57 or 2.3%

US Dollar Index : 82.117
US Dollar Index 5-Apr-13 : 82.494
Change : -0.377 or -0.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,495.30
Platinum Price Close 5-Apr-13 : 1,534.40
Change : -39.10 or -2.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 707.95
Palladium Price Close 5-Apr-13 : 722.75
Change : -14.80 or -2.0%

What a week! The day started off bad for the silver and GOLD PRICE, and then got worse. Gold was driven below the last low ($1,539) before 9:00, traded a short while sideways, then was bombed again down to $1,505. By Comex close it had lost $63.30 (4%) to $1,501, but it didn't stop there. In the aftermarket gold lost another $18.90 (to $1,482.10), for a total loss from yesterday of 5.25%. That's a huge loss by any measure, greatest percentage loss since 23 September 2011's 5.85%.

The SILVER PRICE followed gold's pattern, losing 136.3 cents (4.9%) by the time it closed Comex at 2632.2c. Late in the aftermarket silver had lost another 42.7c to trade at 25.895, a total loss for the day of 6.4%.

Real import of these losses lies in their breaking support which had held for two years. UNLESS silver and gold turn up Monday or Tuesday and close above today's breakdown points (2720c and $1,540), they will continue lower, possibly as low as 1950c and $1,430 - $1,300.

I saw a couple of people making a big deal out of gold dropping more than 20% from the $1,900 high in 2011. Mercy, call in the adults. Who wrote in stone that a 20% decline makes a bear market? (Anyway, they mean a bear phase, not a bear market as in "primary trend".) From the March 2008 high at $1,003.20 gold fell to a $685 intraday low in November, down 31.7%. It closed that day at 704.50, down 29.7%! That same year silver fell from a 2068.15c high to 880c, a 57.4% loss and a 105% loss of the foregoing rise. That fall of 2008 I had three wastebaskets in my office.

But many of the same contradictions to that weakness in 2008 appear today, like the climbing premiums on physical silver. I spent most of August, September, October, November, and December checking my presuppositions two or three times a day. Can silver and gold really be in a bull market and drop this badly?

At times like these, you better check out those presuppositions again, and cause and effect, straining out the camel of current events to find the gnat of cause and effect. When you make a right decision, it's admirable perseverance in the face of hardship. If it turns out wrong, why, then its stubborn stupidity. How do you tell the difference?

I always come back to this: Reality is your best friend. What I want how I'd like things to turn out, my biases and longings -- all that may run counter to reality and may fool you. Wishful thinking will wind you up in the ditch.

Cause hasn't changed, so the effect won't change. Since 2008 central banks and governments have proven time and again that when they fall into a crack, they will frantically print their way out. Right now, they're in the catbird seat, having floated the stock market on a sea of new money. They will keep on doing the same, because they have only two weapons against economic crisis, Blarney and Liquidity. Meanwhile, the economy just won't get started, unemployment just won't go away, Japan has had a flooded carburetor for 23 years, and Europe threatens to blow apart. None of the underlying causes has been addressed, nor has any authority even mentioned addressing them.

So the central banks may skate by for a month, or six months, or a year, but eventually all that money they've been printing, AND will keep on printing, will send the silver and GOLD PRICE up again.

I can wait, just me and my wastebasket. I'll just sit here, reading history and reminding myself that it won't be "different this time."

The Friends of Paper Money had a hey-day this week, while silver and gold took a beating with a barbed wire scourge. My Galactic Hogwash Alarm started blaring its klaxon early this morning, and kept on ringing and blinking all day as all the Mighty pontificated. Meanwhile, I kept calm by puking in my wastebasket. I've been here before. That's why I have two wastebaskets.

Dow stalled today while the S&P500 fell a tad. Dow lost 0.08 to 14,865.06. S&P500 lost 4.52 (0.28%) to 1,588.85.

Dow/Gold and Dow/Silver contradicted all my expectations by jumping hugely. Dow/Gold closed up 5.4% at 10.04 oz (G$207.54 gold dollars). That gains back the entirety of the loss from July 2009 to the August 2011 low at 5.69 (G$117.62). However, the Dow in Gold would have to climb above 14 oz (G$289.40) to cross above the downtrend line from the 1999 high.

Dow/Silver also leapt up, closing 574.27, up 6.53%. That collects about 70% of the loss from the beginning of 2010 to the 247.38 oz low in August 2011. To recapture 100% of that loss Dow/Silver would have to climb to 676.46. Downtrend from the June 2001 high hits about 650 oz.

US got "tough", well, talked tough, to the Japanese today about competitive currency depreciation. Fed's line in the sand is probably 100 c/Y100. Dollar kept on rolling over today, losing 11.7 basis points (0.15%) to close 82.117, ever closer to 82, where the real morale-buster awaiteth.

Yen gained 1.01% to 101.31c/Y100 today, probably on the USG chatter. Euro was basically flat, down 0.3% at $1.3101.

I will be travelling with my wife to Charleston, South Carolina next week for a brief vacation. I will try to shoot off a few commentaries, especially on Monday.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

The Gold Price Bounced Back Rising $6.00 the Gold/Silver Ratio Rose Too

Gold Price Close Today : 1564.30
Change : 6.00 or 0.39%

Silver Price Close Today : 27.685
Change : 0.046 or 0.17%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 56.504
Change : 0.123 or 0.22%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01770
Change : -0.000039 or -0.22%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1535.60
Change : 6.00 or 0.39%

Palladium Price Close Today : 732.20
Change : 12.50 or 1.74%

S&P 500 : 1,593.37
Change : 5.64 or 0.36%

Dow In GOLD$ : $196.44
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.97%

Dow in GOLD oz : 9.503
Change : 0.363 or 3.97%

Dow in SILVER oz : 536.94
Change : 1.38 or 0.26%

Dow Industrial : 14,865.14
Change : 62.90 or 0.42%

US Dollar Index : 82.27
Change : -0.229 or -0.28%

The GOLD PRICE bounced back $6.00 today to close $1,564.30. Silver added 4.6 cents to 2768.5c. GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose slightly, from 56.380 yesterday to 56.504 today. Still room to swap gold for silver.

Look at silver first. For all the pressure brought to break, the SILVER PRICE hasn't broken. It gapped up on Tuesday from 2750c but has traded back only to fill the gap, and not below the breakout. Gold was hammered down past its $1,580 breakout point, and yesterday turned in a low at $,1557.80. Today gold again defended that level successfully with a $1,555.80 low.

Today's GOLD PRICE high would not inspire human wave charges all by itself. It topped at $1,567.93, credible considering the headwind -- above $1,555 support, but not above $1,575 resistance. Once again, on the 4 month chart yesterday's fall broke no barriers, destroyed no hopes, just traded about like markets do, up and down.

Still, gold may not linger here without risking a downward plunge. It needs to step out smartly and jump over $1,591 and $1,605, and, most of all, $1,625. A close below $1,555 would hurt -- how much depends on where it stops.

Silver ranged from 2745 - 2784c today. If the last two days formed a rounding or double bottom, silver ought to exceed 2780 tomorrow. Will continue in the unrespected class with Rodney Dangerfield until it betters 2850c and 2950c. A close below 2740c will drag it lower like the Creature from the Black Lagoon -- Whoops, make that the Creature from Jekyll Island.

I'm nervous. I'm sweating bullets. I'm grinding my teeth but I'm staying with silver and gold. Y'all can cast all your hopes on Ben Bernanke, Bernard O'Bama, and John Maynard Keynes, but this natural born fool will stick with Reality. It just feels safer.

Mother Market spoke today, right on cue, as Bitcoin crashed, losing nearly half its value in six (6) hours, from $260 to $160. Bear witness and memorize how much faster a panic can propagate electronically than under the old time paper systems. Same applies to ALL markets today -- once they start crashing, electronics enable them to crash at the speed of light.

I take no pleasure in reporting Bitcoin's crash, but it offers a lesson in fighting the chart. A market moving vertically is a market about to crash. It is never "different this time." Not ever.

Likewise, dear friends, the outcome of the present global monetary inflation will NOT be "different this time." Hard as it is for you to cling to reality now under the barrage of Fed and Government propaganda and manipulation tricks, reality is your only ticket out home.

Never draw to an inside straight. For 4500 years of human history, people have learned that you can trust silver and gold but not government. Not different this time. You won't draw the one-eyed Jack.

Ho-hum, stocks made another new all-time high today. Dow closed at 14,865.14, up 62.9 (0.42%). S&P500 climbed 0.36% (5.64) to 1,693.37. It's blowing off, so not predictable as to where it will top, but top it will, and sooner rather than later. Then another raft of victims will learn that it's not "different this time."

Dow in gold closed flat to yesterday, closing 9.50 oz (G$196.38 gold dollars). Maximum target here is 10.10 oz (G$208.79).

Why does that natural born fool keep reporting the Dow's price in gold dollars, a measurement almost as easy to compute as "furlongs per fortnight"?

He hath grounds. By reducing the Dow to its value in gold DOLLARS (G$1.oo = 0.048375 troy ounce or 1 troy ounce = $20.6718 gold dollars) he hath a single unchanging measurement of the Dow all the way back to 1896.

Dow in Silver continues to show some sort of isolated island formation above. Has closed lower since last week, and today closed 536.1 oz, up 0.06%. High so far has been 545.41 oz, with a maximum upside target of about 560 oz. A close below 515 oz breaks it down.

Fiat currencies are so nasty I don't even want to talk about them, like trying to have a nice conversation about intestinal parasites. Got to do it anyway, so here goes:

US dollar index lost 0.3% today or 22.9 basis points to close at 82.273 as it continues rolling over in a rounding top. Two days ago broke its uptrend line. In a sane and honest world, it would keep on going until it reached its nominal value in paper, but it could be manipulated one way or the other. Bias of the market is down for now.

Euro jumped up to touch its 50 DMA ($1.3131) today, but fell back to close up only 0.28% at $1.3105. At $1.3100+ lieth not only the 50 DMA but also resistance from March and earlier. Should it breach that resistance, twill sprint for $1.3350, mayhap loftier. Stay away.

Japanese authorities managed to come one small step closer to destroying their economy today as the yen closed 0.5% lower at 100.19 cents/Y100. Stay away.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Gold Price Took Back 81 Percent of it's Gains from the Last Three Days Closing at $1,558.30

Gold Price Close Today : 1558.30
Change : -27.90 or -1.76%

Silver Price Close Today : 27.639
Change : -0.227 or -0.81%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 56.380
Change : -0.542 or -0.95%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01774
Change : 0.000169 or 0.96%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1529.20
Change : -22.80 or -1.47%

Palladium Price Close Today : 719.70
Change : -12.05 or -1.65%

S&P 500 : 1,587.73
Change : 19.12 or 1.22%

Dow In GOLD$ : $196.36
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.97%

Dow in GOLD oz : 9.499
Change : 0.363 or 3.97%

Dow in SILVER oz : 535.56
Change : 8.98 or 1.71%

Dow Industrial : 14,802.24
Change : 128.78 or 0.88%

US Dollar Index : 82.49
Change : 0.097 or 0.12%

Somebody hit the GOLD PRICE upside the head with a ball- peen hammer. Lost $27.90 (1.76%) today to $1,558.30. Today took back 81% of the $34.40 gold had gained in the last three days.

Silver lost 22.7 (0.8%) cents to 2763.9c. That was 20% of the last three days gain of 111.8c.

What at once catches my eye is that the GOLD/SILVER RATIO today FELL and did not rise. Thus asks my mind, "Why did silver remain so strong? Quirk, or sign of firm underlying strength? "

The GOLD PRICE low came today at $1,557.86 about 1:15 p.m. It had angled down at 45 degrees all day, but they hit it an extra hard lick then, to break it below below $1,565.

Before y'all go hunting a straight razor to cut your throats, take a look at that 4 month chart. Today wasn't good, but it didn't smash the uptrend, either. It appears that as long as gold can cling on above $1,550, it can continue climbing. Last intraday low was $1,539.40. If I were manipulating gold, I'd want to hit it hard tomorrow to try to break that $1,539.40. Can they do it? Market'll tell us tomorrow.

The SILVER PRICE 4 month chart is even less distressed than gold's. It reacted back from an internal trend line, nothing to panic over. Market will tell us tomorrow also what silver's relative strength today meant.

Don't y'all get tired of this shell game? It might be entertaining if the goofs in charge had any imagination and could invent news ways to manipulate, but, NO! They pull the same old tired tricks over and over, like some old, washed up con-man. Whoops. No accident there -- that's what they are!

Today, since the gold market was threatening to cross $1,600, the Federal Reserve "leaked" (Wink! Wink!) minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which revealed a "disagreement" (Wink! Wink!) among the members about continuing Quantitative Easing. Fed explained the early release by saying the minutes had been "accidentally" (Wink! Wink!) released to a list of congressional staffers, etc, yesterday. The minutes prompted stock markets to take the news that QE "might" end some time in the future as a sign that the economy is improving, so stocks' future is bright. Of course, they would also have interpreted news of a comet about to hit the earth in 30 days as bullish, too. When you're drunk, any news is good news.

And coincidentally (W!W!) Goldman Sachs was one of the names on that list that received the minutes early, and today Goldman Sachs issued a gold price forecast cutting their target from $1,615 to $1,530 in 3 months, $1,490 in 6 months, and $1,390 in 12 months, and $1,290 by end 2014.

This is the same old shell game, using the same old tired flunkies, the FOMC and Goldman Sachs, using the same broken jawbone to talk down gold. Not concerted? Then why did Deutsche Bank lower it's gold forecast yesterday, or Societe Generale on 2 April? Some of those are the same fronts the US treasury has been using to run its gold suppression scam for over a decade. And of course Goldman has enough slavish customers who will rush out and short gold, and drive the market down for a day or two.

But folks! This is the same tired old scam they've been running for years. The Nice Government Men don't even have imagination enough to enlist some new moves or at least new players. But the same goofs have made the same wrong statements about gold for so long it's tough to grasp why anyone believes them.

On the other hand, Kurt Pfafflin of Daniels Trading in Chicago, who writes a well-reasoned, workmanlike commentary on precious metals, noted in today's issue that Commitments of Traders reports promise good things for silver and gold. Last time CoT figures looked like this was December 2008, with gold at $750. By mid- February 2009, Gold had rallied to $250, and by December 2009, to $1,225. Kurt also noted that the last time speculative hedge funds had a short position this big, in Sept 2007 at $12, in 2 months silver hit 2007 and in 6 months was over $20.

Past performance guarantees nothing, but these examples point out that when negative sentiment reaches extremes, it usually walks hand in hand with a market reversal.

Y'all can subscribe to Kurt's report at http://www.danielstrading.com/offers/941/277/ and if you trade futures you ought to consider his services. (I have no financial interest in pointing you in his direction. I just like his writing.)

Stocks hit new all time highs today. It just don't get no better than this! Dow closed up 128.78 (0.88%) at 14,802.24. S&P500 felt even perkier, rising 19.12 (1.22%) to 1,587.73.

It's not safe for me to try to parse a crazy chart like this. Stocks are in a craze right now, and crazed people make crazy charts. I can only look at the moving averages and the existing trend and say, Well, a trend in force remains in force until violated.

But I can back away and warn y'all that stocks have on an inflation-adjusted basis, a gold basis, and a silver basis, stocks have been in a bear market (primary down trend) since 2000, 1999, and 2001. That trend has not yet turned. Y'all can buy the Fed's baloney if you want, but it gives me the heartburn.

Dow/Gold today gapped up to a new high (9.51 oz) and closed at 9.50 oz (G$196.38 gold dollars). This repeats the gappy pattern that has baffled me in this chart, which has sent out more wrong signals than a Boy Scout learning Morse Code. Dow/Silver, on the other hand, however, has left its island reversal in place. Closed today at 535.29 oz, up 1.78%.

The US dollar strengthened a little today, up 9.7 basis points (0.12%) to 82.493, but did nothing encouraging on the chart. Dollar has rolled over and is pointed toward the ground.

Japanese yen his a new low at 100.21 cents/Y100, down 0.76% today. Them Japanese are just a-marching to inflation-prosperity day by day!

Euro was flat today, down 0.09% to $1.3070. It has now nearly reached the $1.3100+ area where it stopped back in March. 'Bout time for a correction, unless it can jump over that 50 DMA at $1.3138.

I was called to task for panning Bitcoin yesterday. In all fairness, y'all can get your questions answered about Bitcoin at http://bit.ly/eawhtg I have no dog in this fight, but I will promise y'all that no market continues with a chart like Bitcoin's for very long. It is NEVER "different this time." You can repeat that mantra to a chart till you're blue in the face, but it will NEVER change the chart.

How do I know? I've tried it, and just made a fool out of myself.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.