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Friday, May 31, 2013

Gold Price Closed Higher For the Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1,392.60
Gold Price Close 24-May-13 : 1,386.60
Change : 6.00 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 2222.8
Silver Price Close 24-May-13 : 2248.2
Change : -25.40 or -1.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.651
Gold Silver Ratio 24-May-13 : 61.676
Change : 0.97 or 1.6%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01596
Silver Gold Ratio 24-May-13 : 0.01621
Change : -0.00025 or -1.6%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 224.38
Dow in Gold Dollars 24-May-13 : $ 228.14
Change : -$3.77 or -1.7%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 10.854
Dow in Gold Ounces 24-May-13 : 11.036
Change : -0.18 or -1.7%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 680.02
Dow in Silver Ounces 24-May-13 : 680.69
Change : -0.66 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial : 15,115.57
Dow Industrial 24-May-13 : 15,303.18
Change : -187.61 or -1.2%

S&P 500 : 1,630.74
S&P 500 24-May-13 : 1,649.61
Change : -18.87 or -1.1%

US Dollar Index : 83.282
US Dollar Index 24-May-13 : 83.570
Change : -0.288 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,460.60
Platinum Price Close 24-May-13 : 1,451.90
Change : 8.70 or 0.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 751.05
Palladium Price Close 24-May-13 : 726.45
Change : 24.60 or 3.4%

It's Saturday morning and I'm sorry I didn't send this out yesterday, but I had to take my wife to the hospital for chest pain. After two heart surgeries, that gets your attention. She never had it before, and an EKG showed nothing, so we came home and enjoyed each other's company, with a friend and grandson. I'd appreciate y'all praying for Susan.

Friday the silver and GOLD PRICE paid back all of Thursday's gains, but are still speaking out of both sides of the mouth. Gold buckled $18.90 yesterday to $1,392.60 while silver caved 44.6 cents to close at 2222.8c.

Think first about the background. At the end of a 20+ month correction, silver and gold cascaded down in April. That could mark selling's exhaustion -- could. It also might set both up for one final dip down. I don't know which it is, and won't be able to say with certainty until both close ABOVE the breakdown points, 2750c and $1,550. Arguing for the downmove's completion are the double bottoms both left behind in May. Arguing most strongly that the April break did not mark the end of a bull market is its failure as yet to fulfill time and price targets. The bull market hasn't lasted long enough or risen high enough.

Remember that silver and gold price corrections can be brutal. In 2008 gold gave back 30% of its peak, while silver gave back 105% of it previous rise (that's not an error, that's what it did), and 57.5% of its peak. Gold came back to rise about 2-1/2 times that low, silver 5-1/2 times. From 1974 - 1976 gold lost 48% from its high. Silver is now 54% off its last high, gold 26%. In 1987 stocks fell in October 36.1% off their highs that year. In bull markets, corrections happen.

Friday GOLD PRICE high a $1,420.60 high and backed off, as expected. In US trading it came back to $1,406 about 10:00, then in one jump fell $11 to $1,396. Never climbed again above $1,395 and change, and closed at $1,392.60. Traded in the aftermarket down to $1,388.

Oddly enough (I just report what the chart says) that fall did not take gold below it's short term uptrend line, but it did land smack on it. On the other hand, $1,415 - $1,420 has now twice proven itself strong resistance, and gold failed to cut through the downtrend line from the April high, and failed to cut through its 20 DMA. Monday will tell whether gold will make another try at $1,420, or follow through earthward for another plunge.

The SILVER PRICE is different. Not counting the plunge two weeks ago Monday, silver has formed a little range bottomed on 2200c. Yesterday it failed to cross its 20 DMA and failed to hang on above its downtrend line from the April highs. Unless silver and gold prices rise on Monday and make up the ground lost Friday, lower prices will come. An upward turnaround Monday will still leave us wondering until the silver price conquers 2300c and gold $1,420.

Longer term support comes in about $1,320 for gold and $1,050. Silver has similar support about 1950c. I'm not forecasting a return to those prices, only pointing out that should present levels not hold, those are the next support areas.

Since silver and gold prices have a very strong seasonal tendency to make lows in June, time is running out for further downside. Whatever happens in silver and gold, it will likely have happened by end-June, end-July at the latest. But what do I know? I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, too much a fool even to believe Our Central Bank Masters when they tell us, "It's different this time."

For some markets it was a week of confirmation. For others, confusion continued. Let's look.

Both the Dow and S&P500 LOUDLY confirmed last week's key reversal. Big break came Friday, with the Dow diving 208.96 (1.36% -- owch!) to 15,115.57 while the S&P500 plummeted 23.67 (1.43%) to 1,630.74. Both confirmed a downtrend by closing below their 20 DMAs (15,213 and 1,644.81). Both fell off badly at day's end, and both closed on the day's lows. If y'all can find any ground for optimism there, let me know.

How can I remain so negative on stocks when even with yesterday's fall they have gained 17% since 15 November 2012? Simple: I don't buy bubbles. Stocks are in a bubble inflated by Bernanke's money creation. After a bull market lasting from 1982 to 2000, stocks began a bear market (primary down trend) that probably has another two years, perhaps another five years to run. Their present rise may reach 16,000 after this correction, may last into next year, but the eventual and sudden outcome will be weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth. It is not the much-ballyhooed economic recovery that is boosting stocks, but a flood of newly-created fiat money. Ponder this: From 10 November 2008 Bernanke took the Fed's balance sheet from $0.961 trillion to $2.274 trillion on 31 December 2008. He didn't just double the balance sheet, he added not 100%, but 137%. And for every dollar that balance sheet grows, the Fed creates a dollar, and the banks create more dollars.

From 31 December 2008's $2.274 trillion, by 22 May 2013 he had fertilized the balance sheet to $3.441 trillion, adding another 50%. Since December 2002, the Fed's balance sheet has grown 505%.

Exit strategy? He has none. Bull market in stocks? All Quantitative Easing. Increased consumer demand? Maybe, among those who haven't already given up looking for a job. Higher home prices? Great way to work off a glutted inventory, in the face of chronic unemployment.

So if you believe that an economy can be made to run on inflation, that companies and economy can grow and profit on that inflationary diet as they did so recently in Zimbabwe, buy those stocks! But you'd better be nimble, and you'd better be quick. Me, I'll wait until those inflationary chickens come home to roost. They always do.

The Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver both dropped slightly this week, but only did us the favor of continuing to roll over. They have not yet, however, confirmed a top by dropping below their 20 day moving average. As they are dancing with their long term downtrend lines, this we would like to see to confirm that metals' lows are behind us.

The US Dollar Index keeps on refusing to state clearly its intentions. This week it closed Thursday right at 83, but Friday promptly rose 27.4 basis points (0.35%) to 83.282. It remains below its 20 DMA (83.40) but won't confirm a change of short term trend until it closes below 82.90.

Not helping the dollar index are the upside breakouts in the 10 year and 30 year Treasury yields. (Bonds' value drops when their yield rises.) That causes Ben two-stage indigestion: it suggests lots of folks will be selling bonds, effectively selling dollars and driving the dollar down. It also suggests interest rates will keep rising. Whoops. That won't help stocks, will it? Or the housing market? At least, not according to Keynesian dogma, of which Bernanke is the pope.

Euro had a rough day, off 0.38% to $1.2998. However, of this week's gains it saved the close above all its moving averages except the 200 ($1.3001). Euro has marked out a little uptrend, and that remains in force.

The yen, bane of stocks, keeps on rising, albeit glacially. Up Friday 0.31% to 99.58 cents/Y100.

On 31 May 1790 President Washington signed the first US copyright law giving a monopoly of 14 years to books written by US citizens. Oddly, the Tennessee Constitution, Art. I, Sec. 22 (and probably your state constitution) "that perpetuities and monopolies are contrary to the genius of a free State, and shall not be allowed." But what is a patent or a copyright but a "monopoly"? What is the charter of the Federal Reserve, with no expiration, but a "perpetuity"? Why do we have these constitutions if we ignore them?

But then, Art. 1, Sec. 2, says, "That government being instituted for the common benefit, the doctrine of non-resistance against arbitrary power and oppression is absurd, slavish, and destructive of the good and happiness of mankind."

We'll have to have a revolution in this country. Oh, I certainly do NOT mean to reach for your guns and do violence, because that won't accomplish anything but a worse tyranny, death, and horrible destruction. But we must resist. We must say NO! And overthrow the enormous pile of regulation and regimentation and intimidation, the whole fascist and socialist superstructure that has been piled over our God-given liberties since 1865.

The problem with producers is that they produce. Drop us down in a wilderness and we'll start building and plowing and organizing, so even when government stands in our way, we will still try to build and produce around its tyranny. That has to stop. We have to say, "No, you cannot take away my freedom, and I will exercise it in the face of all your threats and regulations." Many will suffer, many will be jailed, some may die there, but when a whole nation says NO, peaceably but relentlessly, then we can recover our liberty.

Anything else is absurd, slavish, and destructive of the good and happiness of mankind.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, May 30, 2013

Gold Price Burst Higher Like a Basketball Held Underwater

Gold Price Close Today : 1411.50
Change : 20.20 or 1.45%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.674
Change : 0.235 or 1.05%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.252
Change : 0.248 or 0.40%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01606
Change : -0.000064 or -0.40%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1481.50
Change : 29.70 or 2.05%

Palladium Price Close Today : 758.00
Change : 10.20 or 1.36%

S&P 500 : 1,654.41
Change : 6.05 or 0.37%

Dow In GOLD$ : $224.43
Change : $ (2.94) or -1.29%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.857
Change : -0.142 or -1.29%

Dow in SILVER oz : 675.86
Change : -6.11 or -0.90%

Dow Industrial : 15,324.53
Change : 21.73 or 0.14%

US Dollar Index : 83.03
Change : -0.600 or -0.72%

The GOLD PRICE burst higher like a basketball held underwater. Smashed through that $1,395 resistance and rose $20.20 (1.45%) to end at $1,411.50. Silver was more lethargic, rising only 23.5 cents (1.05%) to 2267.4c.

The five day gold price chart shows a low at $1,373.70 on Tuesday, and a steady rise until today. About 1:00 a.m. New York time gold levitated straight up from $1,395 to $1,410. From that time till New York opened SOMEbody drove gold back down to $1,400, even a few bucks below, but at 9:30 gold gapped from $1,402 to $1,414 in a single bound, then never dipped below $1,410 again.

It was a clean breakout, and touched the 20 DMA at $1,416.05. Yet from here gold faces naught save labor and trouble -- lots of resistance from $1,425 to $1,495. Yet a hint of gold's strength is show in where it closed today: smack on the downtrend line from the April highs. That would lift the spirits of a fat frog in a deep well.

Don't y'all be surprised if a tussle breaks out in the gold market tomorrow and it falls back toward $1,400, but must not close below that. Really ought to close higher within two days if it wants to confirm this breakout.

SILVER PRICE left a bottom behind on Tuesday, too, and confirmed it with another on Wednesday. Today it climbed above the downtrend line from the April highs and even touched its 20 DMA (2308c). It's a quite promising start, but needs to clear 2330c to prove its muscle and wind.

Great start today for the silver and GOLD PRICE. What's the drawback? Just this: they might rally all the way up to their April breakdown points and fall one last time, and Mercy! We won't be able to tell until they close up above those breakdown points, way higher at $1,550 and 2750c. If we wait to then to "be sure," we'll be paying a lot more to buy.

On the balance in favor of buying now is a double bottom in both the silver and gold price.

No doubt exists about the more distant future. The silver and gold prices will regain all their lost ground and advance to prices you and I cannot now imagine. I interviewed James Turk of GoldMoney.com last week, and he expects gold to finish this year higher than it started.

My, my, something knocked the breath out of the dollar today, and that dollar drop ricocheted off every other market and sent ninepins scattering everywhere (that's three mismatched metaphors in a single sentence. Almost good enough to meet "USA Today" or US Government writing standards).

If I were a New York stockbroker, the 5 day Dow chart would be enough to make me puke on my pointy toed shoes. Today's lower close after Tuesday's attempt to rally, and after Wednesday a week ago's key reversal pretty much guarantees that gravity has taken charge.

Dow actually gained 21.73 today (0.14%) and the S&P500 augmented 6.05 (0.37%) to 1,654.41. Not inspiring. Appears that Wednesday a week ago marked the beginning of a down leg, and it's likely to get bloody right soon.

Ahhh, but look at the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Zut alors! The Dow in Gold dropped 0.15 oz (1.4%) to 10.85 oz (G$224.43 gold dollars). Clearly the canoe has nosed over the edge of the waterfall. (20 DMA stands barely below at 10.74 oz).

Tain't quite as dramatic, but the Dow in silver has rolled over, too. Lost 6.11 oz (0.9%) to end the day at 675.86. 20 DMA, first confirmation of a reversal, stands at 659.32.

Here's my broken record again: reason these two indicators is crucial is because they are the most reliable forecasters of the direction of stocks and metals, and help us pinpoint or confirm reversals. You are watching that turnaround now, and will see stocks cheapening against silver and gold for a while. This supports the idea that silver and gold have already seen their price lows.

Somebody sucker punched the US dollar index today (the metaphor lobe of my brain is overactive today). Sank like your mother-in-law's opinion of you when you showed up drunk for her birthday party. Lost 60 basis points (0.77%) after losing 58 basis points yesterday, and landed on 83.025 -- well below the 83.28 twenty day moving average. A close below 82.96, the 50 DMA makes it hard to argue that the dollar has not turned down. Yield on 10 year Treasury rose, too. It appears to have broken out upside. Poor Ben!

The Euro bounded 0.8% higher to $1.3042. That takes it above all its moving averages, which were clustered between $1.2969 and $1.2998. Clean break out also above the downtrend line. If the scabrous euro can close above 1.3010, it should rally at least to $1.3243, maybe lots higher.

The Japanese yen rose 0.52% to 99.34 cents/Y100. Do y'all care? Is it possible the world is so ignorant it doesn't know what tears and pain this will end in?

US$1=Y100.66=E0.7668=0.044 103 oz Ag=0.000 708 oz. Au.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Bounced Back Today Both Rising Smartly

Gold Price Close Today : 1391.30
Change : 12.40 or 0.90%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.445
Change : 0.265 or 1.19%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.987
Change : -0.182 or -0.29%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01613
Change : 0.000047 or 0.29%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1451.80
Change : -8.80 or -0.60%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.80
Change : -9.20 or -1.22%

S&P 500 : 1,648.38
Change : -0.12 or -0.01%

Dow In GOLD$ : $227.37
Change : $ (3.64) or -1.58%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.999
Change : -0.176 or -1.58%

Dow in SILVER oz : 681.79
Change : -12.95 or -1.86%

Dow Industrial : 15,302.80
Change : -106.59 or -0.69%

US Dollar Index : 83.67
Change : -0.576 or -0.68%

After yesterday's attempt to break silver and GOLD PRICES, both bounced back smartly. Gold bounced back to the top of its range ($1,395) but the SILVER PRICE only reached 2246.8c. Still, it closed near its high. Gold price closed $1,391.30, up $12.40 and silver price closed up 26.5 cents at 2244.5c. GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped to 61.987.

US dollar index lost 0.8%, 61.1 basis points, to 83.633. Combined with a sharp rise in the yield on the 10 year Treasury note, that ought to send Ben the Beneficent reaching for the aspirin -- or the Scotch. Rising yield attacks his ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) and presses the dollar's price downward. flight from the dollar is Ben's worst nightmare.

Stocks faded 0.7% today, choking on their own success. Looks like a downleg has begun.

The Moneychanger is finishing up his monthly newsletter for paid subscribers today. I will return tomorrow, God willing, with his usual verbose commentary.

SPECIAL OFFER

French and Swiss twenty francs.

In 1865 came the first attempt to give Europe a single unified currency with the Latin Monetary Union. France, Belgium, Italy, and Switzerland agreed to a standard currency of 4.5 grams of silver or 0.290322 gram of gold. Thus was born the 20 franc coin (0.1867 troy ounce fine gold), which became one of the most common and widely used denominations in the world. Later Spain, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Venezuela, Serbia, and the Austro-Hungarian Empire employed the same standard. Twenty francs are so common, in fact, that in World War II and the Viet Nam war they were packed in US pilot's survival packs.

We bought a large lot of mostly Swiss but some French twenty francs, all types, from the older French Napoleon III to Roosters. Some may look uncirculated, but some are circulated. Full gold content is there.

I will sell SWISS 20 francs in lots of Ten (10) coins each, at $274.50 each or $2,745.00 + $35 shipping = $2,780.00 per lot. At $1,391.30 spot gold, that's a 5.7% premium over gold.

Lots of Ten (10) each FRENCH 20 francs, my choice of types, I'll sell at $272.50 each or $2,725.00 + $35 shipping for a total of $2,760.00 each. With spot gold at $1,391.30, that's a tiny 4.9% premium over gold.

If you order more than one lot, add only one $35 shipping charge.

Limit Fifteen (15) lots per customer.

Sorry, we can't mix coins within a lot. You may order two lots, one of ten Swiss and one of Ten French, but not a single lot of five Swiss and five French.

All lots are sold subject to the special conditions below, no exceptions. No re-orders at these prices.

Special Conditions:

If I have miscounted my inventory and come up short, the LAST person to order will receive fewer coins, at a price reduced to reflect the smaller quantity.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, and you are giving us your word that you will sell at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

8. Mention goldprice.org in your email.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Gold Price Slid $7.70 Looking Better to Buy Each Day

Gold Price Close Today : 1378.90
Change : -7.70 or -0.56%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.180
Change : -0.302 or -1.34%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.169
Change : 0.493 or 0.80%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01609
Change : -0.000128 or -0.79%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1460.60
Change : 8.70 or 0.60%

Palladium Price Close Today : 757.00
Change : 30.55 or 4.21%

S&P 500 : 1,660.06
Change : 10.46 or 0.63%

Dow In GOLD$ : $231.01
Change : $ 2.87 or 1.26%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.175
Change : 0.139 or 1.26%

Dow in SILVER oz : 694.74
Change : 14.06 or 2.07%

Dow Industrial : 15,409.39
Change : 106.29 or 0.69%

US Dollar Index : 84.24
Change : 0.575 or 0.69%

Today the GOLD PRICE backslid $7.70 (0.6%) to $1,378.90 while the SILVER PRICE slumped 30.2 cents (1.3%) to 2218c.

GOLD PRICE remains trapped by $1,395 and remains in pretty much the same range but widened out the bottom a tad with a $1,373.70 low. That is the STRANGEST one day chart you're likely to see. About 4:30 a.m. New York Time (11:30 a.m. Greenwich) somebody kicked gold in the head like a mule. Gapped down from $1,390 to $1,383. Gold traded sideways until New York opened, then down a little ($1,373 low) and up a little to $1,384. Then about 11:30 it gapped UP to $1,397, strong as a garlic milkshake. Didn't hold on there, but eroded back to close lower at $1,378.90 and flatten out. Charts just keep on acting contrary to reason and expectation. When a market breaks like that, then comes back with such zeal, you expect that means it wants to turn up. Not if it's gold, apparently. Wait, wait! Who's that man behind the green curtain! What? Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain? But why not? Oh, that's just old Ben. Never mind him.

The SILVER PRICE, too, managed to close near the day's lows, but traded up in the aftermarket. Chart differs a tee-tiny bit from gold's, but fundamental tale is the same: gap down, sideways, gap up, and sliding down.

On the 4-month gold price chart it has traced a little uptrend the last six days, but it's not much to look at. Silver has just gone sideways since that strange downspike a week ago yesterday.

Longer this drags on, the better buying silver and gold looks to me. I'm still nervously looking over my shoulder for that possible one-more plunge, but I don't like waiting. It's too clear in my mind that the Nice Government Men engineered these silver and gold price lows, like they've engineered the stock market's rise, to punish anyone daring to prefer to hold one of the scrofulous US dollar's competitors, namely, silver or gold. Why'd they need to do that? What are they seeing in their crystal ball that makes them nervous? I don't know, I just don't trust 'em.

I want y'all to think cagey about today's stock market rise. Y'all remember what happened last Wednesday, when stocks fell around the planet? That brand of volatility spells T-O-P. It often haps that a topping market makes a peak, falls sharply, then rebounds nearly to that peak just as sharply. Might happen more than once. Don't let 'em sucker you.

Dow's intraday high last Wednesday was 15,542.40. Today it stopped at 15,521.49, barely below Wednesday.

Dow closed up 106.29 (0.7%) at 15,409.39. On an intraday high today of $1,674.21 (vs. Wednesday's 1,687.18) the S&P inched up 0.63% or 10.46 to close 1,660.06.

Dow in Gold and Dow in silver both rose today, but not to new highs. Dow in Gold rose 1.21%, Dow in silver 2.04%. No change or confirmation yet.

This country looks mighty familiar to me. I was here once before, in 1999 and 2000. Takes some time for stocks to top, but top they will. Why do I say that? Just because I am a sourpuss on stocks? Not at all. Rather, they are floating on a sea of newly created money, the economic outlook hath not materially bettered, and the alternative yield is less than 1% most places. Not a recipe for Dow 36,000, regardless what the financial bimbos and beanbrains on TV tell you. Ahh, but they are glamorous, wear make up, and sweat under spot lights, while I am only a natural born fool from Tennessee and I just sweat. Ain't ne'er a spot light here anywhere.

Your Yankee government is stepping up the war on competitors to its greenback dollar. Shut down another electronic currency provider today, and on the 17th seized assets of MtGox, one of the largest currency-to-Bitcoin providers. Now the people the YG shut down today may be really bad folks, I don't know. I only know that the only way to tell a government prosecutor is lying is to watch his lips. If they're a-moving, he's a-lying. But since even a blind hog now and then finds an acorn, maybe the folks they shut down today really were bad folks. I just never know who to believe, I've heard so many lies. Shoot, they told some lies about me so big I didn't even know who they were talking about! I thought, "They ought to get THAT guy off the streets!" until I found out it was me. It like to hurt my feelings.

Them old nasty fiat currencies! Even talking about 'em is like dipping your hand into a bucket of hog snot. But I have to do it, so look at the US dollar index. For some gassy reason it rose 57.5 basis points today (0.74%) to 84.237. Five day chart shows a rounding bottom, so 'twill likely rise from here, if it can stay above the lip of that bowl about 84.30 tomorrow. If it can't, then we're merely watching the reaction from its first drop from that 84.60 peak, and in a day or two it will fall through 83.50. I have no dog in this fight, as I have been shucking dollars since 1999, and am not likely to buy any again soon.

The euro fell back today toward the bottom of its recent range. Lost 0.62% to $1.2852. I sure do feel sorry for the folks trapped in that thing. European economy is worse than the US.

Japanese yen bobbles up and down, but always seems to bobble down again. Caved in 1.02% today to 97.76 cents/Y100.

Poor old Ben Bernanke! He's like a man who falls into a rattlesnake den -- whichever way he steps, they're waiting to bite him. He's been so successful raising stock prices with his money pump that folks may be leaving US bonds for stocks. At least, that's what the 10 Year US Treasury Note Yield says today. Rose to 2.135%, which is an upside breakout. This rattlesnake might sink his teeth clean down to Ben's anklebone. More people who want to sell bonds, more the price drops, and when the bond price drops, the yield rises, and that contradicts Ben's ZIRP. No, that's not a weapon for aliens, that's his Zero Interest Rate Policy. Market might be fixing to cancel his policy.

We upgraded our website a while ago but are just now re-posting some back articles on Alternative health. Go to http://the-moneychanger.com/articles/health to take a look. I especially recommend the article "Nutritional Cancer Therapy," an interview with Dr. Nicholas Gonzalez.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, May 27, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices are Unchanged Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1,386.60
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.482
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.676
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Franklin didn't post commentary today, if he posts later it will be available here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, May 24, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Confirmed Their Bargain Bottoms

Gold Price Close Today : 1,386.60
Gold Price Close 17-May-13 : 1,364.90
Change : 21.70 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.482
Silver Price Close 17-May-13 : 22.339
Change : 0.143 or 0.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.676
Gold Silver Ratio 17-May-13 : 61.099
Change : 0.58 or 0.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01621
Silver Gold Ratio 17-May-13 : 0.01637
Change : -0.00015 or -0.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 228.14
Dow in Gold Dollars 17-May-13 : $ 232.55
Change : -$4.41 or -1.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.036
Dow in Gold Ounces 17-May-13 : 11.250
Change : -0.21 or -1.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 680.69
Dow in Silver Ounces 17-May-13 : 687.35
Change : -6.67 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial : 15,303.18
Dow Industrial 17-May-13 : 15,354.79
Change : -51.61 or -0.3%

S&P 500 : 1,649.61
S&P 500 17-May-13 : 1,658.18
Change : -8.57 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index : 83.570
US Dollar Index 17-May-13 : 84.279
Change : -0.709 or -0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,451.90
Platinum Price Close 17-May-13 : 1,468.00
Change : -16.10 or -1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 726.45
Palladium Price Close 17-May-13 : 739.50
Change : -13.05 or -1.8%

No gigantic changes appear on the board, but this was probably the week stocks turned down and silver and GOLD PRICES confirmed their bottoms. May have been the week the US Dollar Index turned down, too.

The gold price gave back some of yesterday's' gains today, losing $5.20 to $1,386.60. Silver lost a nothing 1.2 cents to 2248.2c.

The SILVER PRICE began the week with an overnight attack in Asia that tugged it down to a 2025c low, but it speedily recovered and closed the day higher. Rest of the week it maintained, but not much more. Silver needs to climb above 2300c, then 2500c, then up past that 2750c where it broke down in April.

More than the gold price, the silver price stands yet in the shadow of one possible last plunge to a lower low. We are entering into June, which seasonally usually shows the year's low. Equally, silver might NOT break to a lower low, and that Monday low might mark a double bottom with the previous 2200c low.

How do you know which? You wait to see what the market says. Remember also that silver tends to lag gold when stocks are feeling poorly, which almost certainly will be the case for a while.

After failing again to break through $1,395 overnight, gold went flat today. It's the weekend before the Memorial Day holiday, and no traders want to go home with a big position on. Might upset digesting all that barbecue. All the same, gold certainly showed strength withstanding that Asian attack on Monday. But all week long $1,395 has stymied it, so next week that becomes its target.

What I keep looking over my shoulder at is the chance of gold rallying up to $1,500, even $1,550, then falling down again for one last plunge. How will you know a trip to those heights is false? You won't. You'll know its true if it keeps shooting up.

So we are left looking at bargain silver and GOLD PRICES. Are we going to be afraid to buy because we aren't SURE? You're never going to have that much certainty with any market. I guess the downside risk from here is probably about 5%, down to $1,321.50 (April low). For silver that risk reaches to 1950c (on a plunge) or 14%.

Or you can wait and buy when gold trades steadily above $1,550 and silver above 2750c.

I wish y'all could all be here to share Tennessee with me today. 72 degrees, clear as a bell, gentle breezes, rambling roses and honeysuckle and privet filling the air. It's about as close to heaven as you'll get in this life. Yesterday I went and picked up 8 new swarms of bees, and put them out last night. Y'all see what a risk-taking plunger I am -- hive beetles or not, I'm going to try again.

Both daily and weekly stock charts show a key reversal, although next week's weekly chart must still confirm that. It was the first week in five that stocks did not end higher.

Even thought the Dow spent most of today underwater, it managed "somehow" to close up 8.6 (0.06%) to 15,303.18. Right cosmetic close, I'd say, with some Ripe Mackerel perfume. Along with every other index except the Dow, the S&P500 fell 0.91 (0.6%) to 1,649.60. As huge markets stocks take a long time to roll over, but the definitive event came this week with a Key Reversal on Wednesday (new high intraday with lower close for the day) confirmed on Thursday (lower close). That's the definitive event, like signing up to join the army. They haven't started yelling at you or shooting at you yet, but that will all surely come once you sign that line.

Likewise, the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver both fell through their uptrend lines. Dow in gold rose a smidge today, as did the Dow in Silver, but these tiny gains change nothing. Assuming that the Dow/Gold and Dow/Silver confirm with lower prices next week, the trend of stocks gaining value against silver and gold has ceased. Special value of that message for us is that normally it signals that the metals' price lows are behind us.

Yes, I did say that.

Not clear to me yet whether the US dollar index has broken for good or just for a correction in an ongoing uptrend. Assumption must lie with the ongoing up trend (targeting 89 or so) but a close below 83 would cast some pretty leaden doubt on that.

One reason to suspect the dollar's future will more resemble an earthworm than a soaring hawk would be the Euro. It caught at crucial $1.2800 support and rallied. Has reached but not been able to penetrate its 200 dma ($1.2989). Still, the euro, scrofulous, ratty, mired in the most incurable banking and economic mess of an economy carrying social costs like a 500 lb. anchor, looked peppy the last two weeks. Today it rose a nothing 0.02% to $1.2935.

Yen rose again today, up 0.81%, to 98.92 cents/Y100. For whatever mysterious reason, stocks and the yen are moving opposite each other. Yen is about to clear its 20 DMA (now 99.45) for the first time since April, first sign it MIGHT turn up. Other indicators also show an upturn.

Fiat currency and central banking! Why, a world without fiat currencies and banks would be like a fish without a bicycle! It would be unthinkable, like a world without ticks, chiggers, tapeworms, or fever blisters.

Y'all keep an eye on that 10 year US treasury note yield. It is trying to push through 2.1% and if it does, Ben Bernanke will need some Excedrin. Maybe some Scotch, too, because it might signal faltering faith in the dollar.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, May 23, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Have Bottomed

Gold Price Close Today : 1392.00
Change : 24.40 or 1.78%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.494
Change : 0.036 or 0.16%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.883
Change : 0.987 or 1.62%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01616
Change : -0.000262 or -1.60%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1457.20
Change : -12.00 or -0.82%

Palladium Price Close Today : 738.25
Change : -13.50 or -1.80%

S&P 500 : 1,650.51
Change : -4.84 or -0.29%

Dow In GOLD$ : $227.13
Change : $ (4.24) or -1.83%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.987
Change : -0.205 or -1.83%

Dow in SILVER oz : 679.94
Change : -1.65 or -0.24%

Dow Industrial : 15,294.50
Change : -12.67 or -0.08%

US Dollar Index : 83.70
Change : -0.584 or -0.69%

I got to tell y'all, there ain't nothing normal going on with these silver and GOLD PRICES. Gold today closed up $24.40 (+1.78%) while silver rose -- ready for this? -- 3.6 cents (0.16%) to 2249.4c.

Every time markets challenge the same resistance or support, that line becomes more likely to yield. I'm looking at the 5-day gold price chart, and I see not one, not two, not three, but five (5) challenges of $1,395. I also see 'twas driven down to $1,360 twice. This won't persist much longer. If I had to bet, I'd bet on the gold price piercing that barrier and shooting higher.

The SILVER PRICE seems strangely subdued in all this. Ratio closed at the high end of the range today, 61.883. Silver has been contained between 2200c and 2290c the last three days, but today couldn't get higher than 2267c. Scratch your head! Silver's performance against gold does tend to move same direction as stocks, but . .

Stocks broke today for this leg, but probably not for the all-time (don't y'all just love that word?) grand finale top. However, since all the stock markets in the world are skipping in step, it could be brutal. Meanwhile, more evidence accumulates that silver and GOLD PRICES have indeed bottomed. Looking over your shoulder for one last possible plunge down, y'all might start pecking at buying some silver and gold.

I reckon FEAR, old rank, steaming FEAR, sent Salvador Dali and his irrationality packing. Looks like Bodacious Ben's peeping and muttering satisfied nobody, and what's worse, scared the market AND the horses.

Japanese Nikkei stock index dropped -- gag! -- 7.3% while we slept in Tennessee, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng index fell over 2%. The wave of selling washed clean around the globe: German DAX down 2.1%, French CAC down 2.07%, Euro Stoxx down 2.12%, London FTSE down 2.1%.

Let us always remember and never forget that yesterday the S&P500 and the Dow posted the first half of a Key Reversal (intraday rise to new high with lower close). So. . .what happened today?

Dow traded as low as 12,180 before it rallied back (Fine job, Nice Government Men! Float that ax head!) to close down only 12.67 (-.08%) at 15,294.50. S&P500 fell to 1,635.53 then recovered some to close down only 4.84 (0.29%) at 1,650.51.

Down? Did I say "down"? Yes. Well, how down?

Dow as in "broke the ascending trendline beneath." Down as in "scared the 20 day moving average" (now 15,085 and 1,630). Down, as in broke.

Y'all bear in mind that stocks compose a huge market, and usually don't turn very fast, crash only seldom, so this is liable to unfold slowly. Mmmm . . . come to think of it, if it DOESN'T unfold slowly that would be even worse news for stocks.

Y'all listen, now, and don't forget this no matter what market it is, stocks, gold, silver, bananas: stocks have gained over 15% this year. That ain't normal. When you see performance like that, run the other way, cause a break is coming.

Durn! I'm trying hard not to be mean and crow, but I'm just not succeeding. I'm trying to rein in my grin and keep reminding myself "One day up, next day down, guard your equanimity" but it's just not working. I've been spitting out black crow feathers for the better part of a month, and it feels right good to be on the right side today. I had to cough up all that before I look at the Dow/Gold and Dow/Silver charts or I'd never stop crowing.

Dow in gold fell 0.205 oz (G$4.24 gold dollars) to 10.987 oz (G$227.12). In itself this may not sound significant, but it gapped down thru the uptrend line. Broke clean through it.

Dow in silver scraped off 1.65 oz or 0.24% to end at 679.94 oz ($879.09 silver dollars). Let's take a look at that chart -- Well, what have we here but another broken trend line.

Crowing and cackling aside, these are the sort of breaks that ought to follow through lower, and, of course, they need that confirmation. Reason all this mattereth so largely is that the Dow/Gold and Dow/Silver are quite reliable indicators of the direction of metals against stocks. They are saying that metals are about to gain a lot of value against stocks.

US dollar index took a body blow today. Lost 58.4 basis points (3/4%) to 83.70 and has broken its sharp uptrend line, but that might mark nothing more than a routine correction.

Yen gapped up 1.16% to 98.13 cents/Y100. Stocks fall, yen riseth. (Y'all reckon the hot money has been borrowing yen on Abe's promise he would keep on cheapening them and buying stocks with the proceeds? If so, the hot money got hotter today.) Euro rose 0.6% to $1.2933, not terrible far from the 200 dma at $1.2986. Has the dollar turned down?

I looked at those gold and silver Comex warehouse inventory charts on Nick Laird's www.sharelynx.com, and sure enough, gold inventories have dropped sharply (ca. -18%) this year, although silver has not.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Remain Above Their Monday Lows Gold Needs to Close Above $1,550

Gold Price Close Today : 1367.60
Change : -10.20 or -0.74%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.458
Change : 0.016 or 0.07%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.896
Change : -0.498 or -0.81%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01642
Change : 0.000133 or 0.82%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1469.20
Change : 10.80 or 0.74%

Palladium Price Close Today : 745.80
Change : 4.05 or 0.55%

S&P 500 : 1,655.35
Change : -13.81 or -0.83%

Dow In GOLD$ : $231.37
Change : $ 0.51 or 0.22%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.193
Change : 0.024 or 0.22%

Dow in SILVER oz : 681.59
Change : -4.07 or -0.59%

Dow Industrial : 15,307.17
Change : -80.41 or -0.52%

US Dollar Index : 84.32
Change : 0.551 or 0.66%

The GOLD PRICE today lost $10.20 to end at $1,367.60. Silver gained 1.6 cents to end at 2245.8c.

I think analysts are really unimaginative and thickheaded to blame every market move on government manipulation, but durned if today didn't smell like the Fulton Fish Market. Or maybe it was simply the Magic of the Ben. I checked gold early this morning, about 6:30 my time, and it was up over $1,400. About 10:30 it gapped down from $1,385 to $1,381, traded sideways until 2:00 p.m., then gapped from $1,370 to $1,365. Low was $1,357.36. What left my mouth gaping? That jump up this morning was consistent with Monday's reversal. More, Bernanke actually said that he was going to CONTINUE (as in "keep on") inflating the currency.

The SILVER PRICE played out the same steps. Climbed to 2286c early in the day, then began falling off about 11:30, then sagged badly after 2:00 to a low at 2238.7. It ended the day up a nothing 1.6 cents.

Well, step back a little and look at a longer term chart. Silver and gold prices remain above their Monday lows, but we still ought to beware waxing too cocksure about that double bottom. The GOLD PRICE needs to close above $1,550 and silver above 2700 cents, the points where they broke down in April, to confirm a double bottom. Problem is, if you wait for that confirmation to begin buying, you will have completely missed the lows.

I interviewed James Turk of GoldMoney today. He said something very interesting: "I expect gold to finish the year higher, as it did in 2008." I've known him for over 25 years, and, of course, he hasn't always gotten the market right. But he has a clear vision of the future, and if delayed sometimes, it is still sure.

I don't much care whether the government is manipulating prices lower to punish and frighten silver and gold investors, or it's a normal market correction. Makes no difference, because both gold and silver are moving much, much higher. And not even the goofs who run the central banks can stop that.,

Things have gotten so irrational, so senseless, that I feel like I'm trapped in a Salvador Dali painting called "Central Banks" where currencies are melting over tree-limbs and table edges. Nothing adds up.

Today, if you can believe the news reports, a questionable proposition to begin with, as Ben The Bodacious spoke to congress, all the markets swayed first one way, then the other, according as his words indicated he would create more money or less. Lo, friends! This scoots beyond Preposterous, through Absurd, and all the way to Harebrained, yet people whose drivers licenses claim they are "adults" are buying all this.

Buying what? First, the asinine and numberless-times disproved concept that a nation can inflate its way to prosperity (disproved lately by Zimbabwe). Second, that stocks will become more valuable (intrinsically) if Bernanke prints more money. Third, that once he started printing, he could ever withdraw that money or stop, let alone stop quickly, and thus drive down the prices of silver and gold. There are words for this: wacky, daft, deranged, dotty, idiotic, nuts, silly, stupid, and irrational. And loony. I left out loony.

I think the media are complicit with this. Look at the pictures they publish of Bernanke, always looking like the wise and knowing sphinx. You can't kid me -- somewhere they have pictures of him digging in his nose for the Big One, but they never publish that.

Now, to today's markets:

On balance stocks took Bernanke's on-again/off-again testimony as an unfriendly gesture. Dow peeled off 80.41 points ( -0.52%) from yesterday after reaching a new all-time intraday high. Ditto for the S&P500, which shucked 13.81 (0.83%) to close at 1,655.35.

Nor did I overlook that both posted today the first half of a key reversal (trading into new high ground with a lower close). If they close lower tomorrow, stocks will have nailed their coffin lid shut. If.

What about the Dow measured by metals? The Dow in Gold was basically unchanged today, actually a little lower if you measure it Dow close to gold close, 11.19 oz today versus 11.17 yesterday.

Dow in Silver chipped off 4.07 oz to close 681.59 oz. It will drop down through the uptrend line about 675 oz.

Currency markets took Bernanke's Blathering to mean a higher dollar. Let's see, "I'm going to continue inflating the currency" translates to a higher dollar price? Loony. Dollar rose 55.5 basis points (0.71%) climbing back above the 84 mark to 84.319. Uptrend intact. Japanese yen backed off 0.45% to 97.12 cents/Y100. Euro lost 0.43% to $1.2853. Nonetheless, an idea worth pondering is a lower dollar.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Failed to Complete the Second Half of that Key Reversal

Gold Price Close Today : 1377.80
Change : -6.50 or -0.47%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.442
Change : -0.126 or -0.56%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.394
Change : 0.055 or 0.09%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01629
Change : -0.000015 or -0.09%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1458.40
Change : -26.20 or -1.76%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.70
Change : -2.30 or -0.31%

S&P 500 : 1,669.16
Change : 2.87 or 0.17%

Dow In GOLD$ : $230.87
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.36%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.168
Change : 0.363 or 3.36%

Dow in SILVER oz : 685.66
Change : 6.15 or 0.90%

Dow Industrial : 15,387.58
Change : 52.30 or 0.34%

US Dollar Index : 83.83
Change : 0.075 or 0.09%

Silver and GOLD PRICES failed to complete the second half of that key reversal. The SILVER PRICE lost 12.6 cents (0.47%) today to 2244.2c while the gold price lost $6.50 (0.56%) to $1,377.80.

That's certainly disappointing, but does not necessarily mean that silver and gold prices have not made their bottoms. Both charts still look good, and especially those turnarounds yesterday. I had to buy a little today.

I can't wholly rule out another plunge down for both metals, but for now their bias is upward.

Isn't the power of intimidation amazing? That's one reason that government always wants to makes sure that you have a guilty conscience. Why? Because a guilty man is so easy to control. Today if any one stands up for his rights -- real rights, not manufactured ones -- or controverts the official government or media or academia line, why, then he's an extremist or a terrorist, and all they need do is brandish those or similar pejoratives to intimidate most folks into silence.

Intimidation -- it's government's most useful tool.

Today the whole world was fine, jes' fine, once again. Why, stocks rose and the dollar rose and the euro rose and the yen fell and pretty soon there'll be a chicken in every pot. Well, an artificial GMO-chicken, at least.

Dow added 52.30 (0.34%) to 15,387.58. S&P500 gained 2.87 (0.17%) to 1,669.16. I think both indices are vying for who can run the longest string of new all-time highs. I tell y'all, it's the best of all possible worlds, the very best. Ben himself said so, and if Ben tells you a rooster dips snuff, you can look under his wing for the brush.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver both rose today. Dow/Gold rose 0.15 oz to 11.17 oz (G$230.90 gold dollars). Dow/Silver gained 14.28 oz (2.13%) to end at 685.26.

US dollar index gained slightly, up 7.5 basis points (0.1%) to end at 83.831. That doesn't really tell us very much. Trend in force remains in force until it's broken, and the dollars uptrend has not yet been broken.

The euro gained 0.18% to $1.2908, but remains below all its moving averages. 200 DMA stands at $1.2980, so we'll see what happens there.

Japanese yen gave back some of yesterday's rise, losing 0.22% to 97.56 cents per Y100. Nothing interesting there, but although it may be nothing more than a coincidence, the yen and stocks have been moving opposite each other ("have been negatively correlated"). That suggests that any rise in the yen will be accompanied by falling stocks. Transmission mechanism of that relation, if there is one, isn't clear to me, unless money fleeing Japan and the yen is running to the US stock market for a possible return as opposed to a sure currency loss. But then, I'm always looking for sense where no sense may be.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Monday, May 20, 2013

Have We Seen the Bottom in Silver and Gold Prices?

Gold Price Close Today : 1384.30
Change : 19.40 or 1.42%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.568
Change : 0.229 or 1.03%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.339
Change : 0.240 or 0.39%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01630
Change : -0.000064 or -0.39%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1484.60
Change : 16.60 or 1.13%

Palladium Price Close Today : 750.00
Change : 10.50 or 1.42%

S&P 500 : 1,666.29
Change : -1.18 or -0.07%

Dow In GOLD$ : $229.00
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.39%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.078
Change : 0.363 or 3.39%

Dow in SILVER oz : 679.51
Change : -7.82 or -1.14%

Dow Industrial : 15,335.28
Change : -19.12 or -0.12%

US Dollar Index : 83.75
Change : -0.366 or -0.44%

Have we seen the bottom in silver and GOLD PRICES overnight? Tentatively. First steps.

Overnight SOMEbody (wink, wink!) tried to crush silver with massive sales in Asia (Sunday night our time). They drove silver down to 2023.5c, but that lasted only very briefly. By midnight New York time silver has climbed back above 2100c, and climbed slowly through the rest of European trading. By New York open it had reached 2180c, backed off, traded up to 2200c by noon, then in a single bound leapt to 2270c. Comex closed UP 22.9 cents at 2256.8c, after a range of 299 cents. Whew.

Today's trading paints the first half of a Key Reversal: a break to new low ground with a close higher than the preceding day (Friday closed 2233.9c). IF silver confirms with the second half of that Key Reversal tomorrow (a higher close than today's), you've got your sign that it's reversed. Permanently? Don't know. Have to see how it behaves, step by step confirming that reversal.

The SILVER PRICE crucial support now is 2250c, where "crucial" means "must hold."

The GOLD PRICE suffered the same sort of attack that silver suffered, only with less effect. Drove it down to $1,336.50 in Asian trading, rose in a rounding bottom to $1,365 when Comex opened. Backed off, strengthened, then jumped square up $1,365 to $1,385 in one leap. High hit $1,398,60, tapping hard on $1,400.

This, too, marked the first half of a Key Reversal for gold, new low with higher close. Tomorrow to complete that Key Reversal gold must close above $1,384.30.

Y'all need to comprehend that looking at charts is a work continually in progress. It says something until it contradicts or confirms. Today's trading left double bottoms on both charts. For now, both metals have reversed, but they must confirm that Key Reversal tomorrow.

This may be the witness we've been waiting on. I bought a little of both metals, just in case. That higher close tomorrow will really stimulate my buying glands.

The whole financial world is so bogus. Fed propagandists have found their "We might end QE sometime soon" theme has worked such wonders that they're pedaling that bike overtime. Chicago FedHed Evans was seen spouting that nonsense today. Right, sure, the US economy will just keep on creating jobs (or the NGM will just jimmy the numbers further so the unemployment LOOKS smaller) and the Fed will slam on the brakes and make the whole addicted US economy go inflation-cold turkey. Sure -- when your grandmother grows a beard and moustache. A level of propaganda this preposterous shows that the gullibility of the American public cannot be overestimated -- nor the contempt Our Masters have for us.

Part of this fun today arose from the US dollar index falling back from its Friday high by 36.6 basis points (0.47%) to 83.748. I have been expecting it to continue to advance, but that's a pretty hefty stumble. Besides, currencies can only be parsed temporarily by technical analysis, since the Nice Government Men can change directions -- and exchange rates -- at any time for any reason.

Yen climbed 0.96% to 97.79. If we had found the yen passed out on the street, this would be the equivalent of barely fogging a mirror held under its nostrils.

Euro also shot up today, well, rose 0.37% to $1.2887. What tarnishes the luster on that? Friday it hit the neckline of a head and shoulders that began building last September. Whether the euro intended to drop further or not, it would ordinarily bounce off strong support like that. Neckline is around $1.2800 now. When the Euro breaks that level, 'twill drop like a hambone in swill.

Stocks stuttered and staggered on their way to Schlaraffenland today. Dow lost 19.12 (0.12%) to end at 15,335.28. S&P500 backed up 1.18 (0.07%) to 1,666.29. A mania cannot be parsed, so I won't even try to point to a top. When it stops, it will stop fast, hard, and humiliating.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver both dropped right smart today. Dow in silver perched at 679.51 oz, down 7.84 oz or 1.14%. Dow/Gold lost 0.17 oz (1.52%) to 11.078 oz.

SPECIAL OFFER

U.S. $5 modern commemoratives.

Today I was able to buy a good-sized lot of US $5.00 commemoratives (0.2419 troy ounce fine gold content). These have been minted over the last thirty years to the ancient US standard to commemorate various events. and are not to be confused with the American Eagle gold coin series. All are in proof or proof-like condition.

Based on today's gold close at $1,384.30, the premium for these coins over gold is a tiny 5.9%.

I will sell lots of Eight (8) each $5 gold commems ($354.50 each) for $2,836 + $35 shipping = $2,871.00 per lot.

If you order more than one lot, add only one $35 shipping charge.

Limit ten (10) lots per customer. All lots are sold subject to the special conditions below, no exceptions. Sorry, no re-orders at these prices.

Special Conditions:

If I have miscounted my inventory and come up short, the LAST person to order will receive fewer coins, at a price reduced to reflect the smaller quantity.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. When you give us an order, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, and you are giving us your word that you will sell at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

8. Mention goldprice.org in your email.

Thanks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Friday, May 17, 2013

Has the Silver and Gold Price Bull Market Ended?

Gold Price Close Today : 1,364.90
Gold Price Close 10-May-13 : 1,436.80
Change : -71.90 or -5.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.339
Silver Price Close 10-May-13 : 23.632
Change : -1.293 or -5.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.099
Gold Silver Ratio 10-May-13 : 60.799
Change : 0.30 or 0.5%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01637
Silver Gold Ratio 10-May-13 : 0.01645
Change : -0.00008 or -0.5%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 232.55
Dow in Gold Dollars 10-May-13 : $ 217.52
Change : $15.04 or 6.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.250
Dow in Gold Ounces 10-May-13 : 10.522
Change : 0.73 or 6.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 687.35
Dow in Silver Ounces 10-May-13 : 639.75
Change : 47.61 or 7.4%

Dow Industrial : 15,354.79
Dow Industrial 10-May-13 : 15,118.49
Change : 236.30 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,658.18
S&P 500 10-May-13 : 1,633.70
Change : 24.48 or 1.5%

US Dollar Index : 84.279
US Dollar Index 10-May-13 : 83.170
Change : 1.109 or 1.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,468.00
Platinum Price Close 10-May-13 : 1,486.00
Change : -18.00 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 739.50
Palladium Price Close 10-May-13 : 704.60
Change : 34.90 or 5.0%

Silver and GOLD PRICES were humiliated again today. Silver dipped 30.4 cents to 2233.9c. Gold dove $22.20 to $1,364.90. No sign yet of turning round.

However, silver's lows yesterday and today ran about 2206c (different charts give different figures). That's enough to call it a double bottom with the 2200c low on 15 April, but not enough to say it won't drop lower. It will have to show that next week.

Gold's weakness today and a new low for the move at $1,358.39 argue it will drop on down to $1,322, the previous low. Can gold prices go lower? Yes. It can drop to $1,250. Next week will tell.

About the only bright spot for silver and gold prices is the GOLD/SILVER RATIO at 61.099. It doesn't seem to want to climb, which would signal lower prices for the metals. But it ain't too decisive, either.

Question everybody keeps asking me: Has the SILVER and GOLD PRICE bull market ended? Answer. NO! Inflation, the primary driver of monetary demand which drives silver and gold bull markets, is stronger than ever in the hands of hapless, feckless central bankers. As long as that cause remains, the effect, higher silver and gold prices, will resume. Our Masters are busily trying to con y'all out of your silver and gold, and y'all know you can trust 'em. I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you.

Back when country music was still country and still music, an obscure artist named Stonewall Jackson in 1959 penned this lines in the song "Waterloo:

Waterloo, Waterloo

Where will you meet your Waterloo?

Every puppy has its day

Everybody has to pay

Everybody has to meet his Waterloo.

As stocks ground higher and ever higher to new all-time highs for the fourth week in a row and silver and gold continued to be slugged and kicked and the US dollar, of all scrofulous currencies, broke out upside, my mind kept returning to those lines: "Every puppy has his day." I reckon the central bankers are having theirs right now, but one day "Everybody has to meet his Waterloo." Meanwhile, the media are trying to convince us, in the words of a friend I heard today, that water runs uphill. I'm such a durned ol' fashioned, natural born fool that I just can't swallow that. Ain't no problem figuring out why I'm not president, is there?

It won't overload your credulity, I suspect, to note that stocks have risen further than I thought possible. When a market keeps edging higher like this, you just have to step out of its way. Both the Dow and S&P500 have thrown-over their resistance lines, built rising wedges, and gotten more overbought than doobies at a rock festival, but they keep going (and maybe for the same sort of reason). Anyhow, they are floating on a wave of newly created money from the Fed, not economic reality. At some point that cobweb breaks, but I can't predict when. I just don't believe in Zimbabwe-nomics, the doctrine that you can inflate your way to prosperity.

Hack, hack! Now that I've coughed that bone up out of my throat, let's proceed.

Dow today mounted on buzzard's wings and floated up 121.57 or 0.8%. S&P500 with a vulture's grace rose 15.64 (0.95%) to 1,658.18. Stupor mundi, or stupid mundi, one.

Dow/Gold today reached a new high at 11.25 oz. (G$232.55 gold dollars), up 2.4% Dow in Silver vaulted 14.6 oz. (2.2%) to a new high at 687.35 oz. Those higher prices sent me scurrying back to the charts trying to make sense of it. Looking back at the Dow in Gold's fall from it's last peak in 2007 at 21.06 oz., today's price doesn't quite reach a 38.2% correction. Today's close left the Dow/Gold barely above its long term (14 year) downtrend line. Right, I'm chewing my nails, too, wondering when reality will kick in.

I reckon with the Yen losing 25% of its value against the dollar in nine months that yen-holders would be looking around for someplace else to stash their cash, like US dollars. And with the euro facing a new crisis every fortnight and political paralysis, from that vantage point the dollar might look a little less scabby, too. Proving it has reached escape orbit speed, the dollar today mounted 53.4 basis points to 84.279, up 0.69%. It's top trend line points to 86 in about three weeks unless it stumbles. Above that stands only 89.

The Nice Government Men in Japan are obliging the dollar by sinking to ever new lows, a new one today at 96.86, down 0.95%. And somebody pointed out something to me in the euro today I hadn't noticed before, a head and shoulders with a neckline around $1.2800. Euro closed today down 0.33% to $1.2839. Once it breaks that neckline it will drop quickly to $1.2600, maybe $1.2000.

On 17 May 1792 the New York Stock Exchange was founded at 70 Wall Street by 24 brokers who had just been released from prison.

Y'all are always very kind and encouraging to me, so I'm going to ask a little favor. I am facing a knotty problem, one that at times seems completely un-riddleable. I would deeply appreciate your prayers, that God would grant me wisdom and courage and strength. That's right, I am not made of steel. In fact, patches of rust are showing up and I would deeply appreciate y'all help.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.



Thursday, May 16, 2013

With Gold Prices Down I Intend to Buy More

Gold Price Close Today : 1387.10
Change : -9.40 or -0.67%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.643
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.260
Change : -0.415 or -0.67%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01632
Change : 0.000110 or 0.68%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1485.60
Change : -5.10 or -0.34%

Palladium Price Close Today : 740.00
Change : 11.70 or 1.61%

S&P 500 : 1,650.47
Change : -8.31 or -0.50%

Dow In GOLD$ : $227.02
Change : $ 0.90 or 0.40%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.982
Change : 0.044 or 0.40%

Dow in SILVER oz : 672.76
Change : -1.88 or -0.28%

Dow Industrial : 15,233.22
Change : -42.47 or -0.28%

US Dollar Index : 83.60
Change : -0.183 or -0.22%

Silver and GOLD PRICES sang oddly out of tune today, which might be good or bad. Gold dwindled $9.40 (0.67%) to $1,387.10. Silver, however, after falling as low as 2214.4c (49.9 cents lower than yesterday's close), Yet by day's end silver had climbed back to unchanged. Odd.

In European trading, about 4:00 a.m. New York time, gold gapped down from 2250c to 2215c, and traded sideways between there and 2230c until about an hour before New York opened. In New York silver climbed, not spectacularly but steadily, to a high at 2280c. It backed off a little to close at 2264.3c.

If the SILVER PRICE can close higher tomorrow, today's action will constitute the first half of a Key Reversal upward -- but it must close higher tomorrow.

On a five day chart silver shows a long gradual but steady decline until that low and recovery today, which leaves a V-bottom on the chart. Will that hold? I don't know, but clearly whenever silver nears 2200c, buyers wake up.

Gold's chart today mirrors silver's, with a gap breaking down about 4:00 a.m., long sideways trading, then a recovery. This leaves behind on the 5 day chart a V-bottom, but without silver's unchanged close.

Now is the time to keep a close watch. These levels are about where we can expect silver and gold to turn around if they do not intend to revisit their old highs. I intend to take advantage of these low prices to buy more silver and gold, and I'm just waiting for the right moment and a confirmation.

Reader BT, who wisely migrated below the Mason-Dixon line, has asked what it means when gold and silver prices keep on dropping while the premium on physical silver and gold prices items in the retail market is at an all-time high?

First, we have to distinguish two markets in physical gold and silver. In the international market gold is traded in 100 or (more often) 400 oz bars, and silver is traded in 1,000 oz bars. In the retail market, most gold is traded as coins of 1.2057 oz or less, 1 oz. bullion bars, or, occasionally, ten oz or kilo bars. Silver is traded as 100 oz. bullion bars, ten oz. bars, one oz privately minted rounds, a plethora of official coins like the American Eagle or Maple Leaf, that are simply one ounce silver rounds from a government mint. Also traded at retail are US 90% silver coins (dimes, quarters, and halves minted before 1965).

I do not trade in the international market, so cannot testify as to delivery shortages there. I have heard RUMORS that wealthy Europeans have been to their banks demanding delivery of their gold and been put off, but I cannot verify that. I do notice an 8 May report on the Nymex site that Comex gold inventories were 7.9 million ounces, lowest level since 18 July 2008.

The silver and gold retail market that I deal in has a very thin pipeline. Large wholesalers ($5 billion a year turnover or more) are the key suppliers, but when silver and GOLD PRICES suddenly fall, demand usually overwhelms their supply. This doesn't apply so much to gold products as to silver. As soon as supplies disappear and while awaiting re-orders from refiners, they raise the premiums on 100 oz bars and one oz rounds.

Since the arrival of the silver American Eagle in 1986, most dealers have shown little respect for US 90% silver coin, which during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s was the workhorse of the retail silver market. In the 1980s they carried a 40% premium, dropped to roughly melt when the silver AE appeared as dealers switched inventory to AEs, but in the late 1990s Y2K buying ran that premium up to 40% again. I watch this premium closely because USUALLY a fall signals a coming fall in silver, and a rise underlying strength and a coming rise. For years I have directed customers primarily into 90% coin because its premium was so much lower (0 to 50 cents over spot vs. $2.50 to $4.75 for American Eagles) and because OVER TIME PREMIUM ALWAYS DISAPPEARS. Also, their silver content is well known, and they are very divisible (14 dimes to an ounce).

Most dealers still believe there are loads of 90% bags available, but there are not. They've been steadily melted over the years, and one day will resume their high premium when folks figure that out.

The fall 2008 panic and price drop drove premiums on US 90% to 50% over melt, and drove up premiums on every other silver item, too. Deliveries stretched out to 6 or 8 weeks. Gold coin premiums at wholesale roughly tripled, with Krugerrands at 8% and American Eagles at 11% (peak of 2008) and long delays. Those premiums peaked about when silver and gold prices bottomed, then fairly quickly disappeared, returning to normal by June 2009.

So most of the presently high retail premiums on the SILVER PRICE can be explained by high demand, but not quite all. The US 90% silver premium began climbing from about 30 cents an ounce in December to $5 an ounce when May began. It has since fallen back to about $2.90, but remains stubbornly high. Through January, February, March, and April the 90% premium was forecasting a silver reversal upward any time, but it has proven a false signal -- for the first time I can remember.

Conclusion seems to be that huge retail demand is driving that premium, even though cheaper forms of silver are available, and that the lower the silver price falls, the more retail customers crowd in to buy it. It's probably dangerous to generalize about the price's direction from this, other than to notice the general support at lower levels, since the retail markets here, in Asia, and in Europe are not the largest market segment by any measure. It does show, however, that savers around the world recognize that they must save in gold or silver, or be gutted by their national fiat currencies -- which makes them about five times cannier than every central banker in the world.

Well! Man bites dog. The stock indices did NOT make all-time new highs today.

S&P500 lost 8.31 (0.5%) to close at 1,650.47. Dow Industrials lapsed 42.47 (0.28%) to 15,233.22. Both remain ridiculously oversold, both have built rising wedge formations, both have overthrown their upper channel or trend lines. Both, in other words, are begging for a big dive. (Tuck away in your mind that this dive will likely not be the end. It should be followed by another rise to more all-time highs, and the dive that will be the end, later this year.)

Today threw an interesting curve to the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Dow in Silver shrank 1.88 oz to close 672.75 oz. Dow in Gold, on the other hand, rose a bit to 10.982 oz, virtually identical to yesterday's 10.938. Hesitating or turning? We'll see tomorrow.

US dollar index lost 18.3 basis points (0.24%) today to end at 83.602. That no doubt helped boost silver and gold a little, but didn't change the dollar index chart. It is still headed higher strongly. Saw one of those headlines today that makes you scratch your head because everybody in the world is saying the same thing, and everybody can't ever be right: "Dollar is the world's strongest currency." Yeah, buddy! Maybe it's been taking one of them Charles Atlas strong man courses, so the other currencies won't kick sand in its face at the beach. Other than that, it's still the same rotten patchwork of propaganda and Biggest Army In the World that it's ever been, so strong that since 2001 it's "climbed" from 1.21 to 83.602. No, wait, that isn't a climb, is it? That's losing 31%. But I will concede that presently the central banks have talked the dollar up into the air. I hate to tell 'em it's just like playing catch with a bowling ball -- stay out from under it.

Yen barely moved, closed 97.81 cents/Y100. Euro close $1.2884, about where it closed yesterday ($1.2878).

Somebody said to me today that we've given "way too much real estate" in our hearts and minds to fear of government. She was dead right. They rule us by fear. Wonder what would happen if, like our forebears, we took back that real estate, and feared no power but God?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
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To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.