Friday, June 28, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Jumped Today Gold Closing at $1,223.80 Still Rising in Aftermarket

Gold Price Close Today : 1,223.80
Gold Price Close 21-Jun-13 : 1,291.60
Change : -67.80 or -5.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.451
Silver Price Close 21-Jun-13 : 19.958
Change : -0.507 or -2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.917
Gold Silver Ratio 21-Jun-13 : 64.716
Change : -1.80 or -2.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01589
Silver Gold Ratio 21-Jun-13 : 0.01545
Change : 0.00044 or 2.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 251.85
Dow in Gold Dollars 21-Jun-13 : $ 236.20
Change : $15.64 or 6.6%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.183
Dow in Gold Ounces 21-Jun-13 : 11.426
Change : 0.76 or 6.6%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 766.52
Dow in Silver Ounces 21-Jun-13 : 739.47
Change : 27.05 or 3.7%

Dow Industrial : 14,909.60
Dow Industrial 21-Jun-13 : 14,758.32
Change : 151.28 or 1.0%

S&P 500 : 1,606.28
S&P 500 21-Jun-13 : 1,592.43
Change : 13.85 or 0.9%

US Dollar Index : 83.170
US Dollar Index 21-Jun-13 : 82.312
Change : 0.858 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,336.90
Platinum Price Close 21-Jun-13 : 1,362.50
Change : -25.60 or -1.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 659.50
Palladium Price Close 21-Jun-13 : 673.25
Change : -13.75 or -2.0%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES finally popped back today. Silver, which has been very reluctant to fall further lately, jumped up 91.8 cents (5%) to end at 1945.1 the gold price jumped $12.40, 1%, to end at $1,223.80. In the aftermarket silver added another 12 cents and gold another 11 bucks.

Both metals bounced up off their bottom channel lines. Whether it's more than that, whether more downside is coming, we see from how they act next week. Even to begin confirming a bottom, gold must rise steadily and close above $1,350. Silver must do the same and jump over 2000c and 2100c.

I think at least it's time to start nibbling at them, although there's still plenty of potential for more downside. Looking over my shoulder, though, at that seasonal pattern that posts bottoms for both metals in June. Both silver and gold are extremely oversold, so some rally is predictable. Question is, whether it turns the long correction around or not.

One interesting thing about this last week: retail buying was very heavy compared to recent weeks. Over 30 years I've learned that my customers are often more clever than I am. (I know, I know, no news in that.) In any event, I don't expect a lot more downside in silver or GOLD PRICES. I am simply watching.

An old friend wrote me saying, "Looking more and more like 1980." He meant silver and gold prices, of course.

Not really. Decline after 1980 top was sharp and immediate. Not so today, not even from 2011. And sentiment is way too bearish today. Even the gold websites are publishing bearish predictions!

Finally Bernanke ain't Volcker. He's still inflating, and he's trapped. Even a hint he would halt bond buying IF the economy improved tanked markets. He must keep on inflating. And who's waiting in the wings to replace him? Janet Yellen, even more the inflationist.

No, this isn't 1980, it's a bull market shaking off riders. If you're looking for a comparison, it's 1976, not 1980.

I was wondering yesterday whether stocks were rallying or foolin', and today it seems they were fooling. Dow puked back 114.89 points of yesterday's 114.35 point gain and closed at 14,909.60, up 0.76%. S&P500 gave back less, down 6.92 (0.43%) to 1,606.28. Stocks need to climb above 15,075 or continue to fall to 14,000.

As i said, Silver and gold prices surged today, sending the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver tumbling. Dow in gold ended at 12.183 oz, down 1.8% (G$251.85 gold dollars). Dow in silver fell 44.17 oz to 76.52 oz, a whopping 5.4% stumble.

On a weekly chart, the Dow in Gold has been overbought since April, the Dow in Silver since February. Does that happen in nature?

Improbable as it sounds, like "tortoise shells make good suction cups," the US dollar index has risen ten out of the last ten days. Does that happen in nature? Today it finally crossed over -- no, not finally, as we all might devoutly wish -- 83 to rise 21.6 basis points (0.28%) to 83.17. It has at least 85.50 in this move, maybe 86.

While the paper dollar flies, the yen and euro are tunneling toward the earth's core. Euro lost 0.16 5oday and ended at $1.3015, flirting with 1.3000 and a real plunge. Yen fell 0.92% to 100.57.

Bernanke may have pricked his own bond bubble with his June 19th performance. Bond mutual funds lost a record $61.7 billion this month through 24 June. Yield on 10 year Treasury has exploded 105 basis points (a basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point) from May lows at 1.618% to this week's high at 2.667%. (When yields rise, bond prices fall.) Bernanke's Zero Interest Rate Policy had send investors crowding into US treasuries. Why take any risk when the yield is so low. Trouble is, the door out of that market, like every other, becomes very narrow when everybody wants out.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Gold Price Down 1.48 Percent Ending the Day at $1,211.40

Gold Price Close Today : 1211.40
Change : -18.20 or -1.48%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.533
Change : -0.054 or -0.29%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.364
Change : -0.789 or -1.19%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01530
Change : 0.000183 or 1.21%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1325.10
Change : 21.40 or 1.64%

Palladium Price Close Today : 649.15
Change : 17.45 or 2.76%

S&P 500 : 1,613.20
Change : 9.94 or 0.62%

Dow In GOLD$ : $256.38
Change : $ 5.72 or 2.28%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.403
Change : 0.277 or 2.28%

Dow in SILVER oz : 810.69
Change : 8.51 or 1.06%

Dow Industrial : 15,024.49
Change : 114.35 or 0.77%

US Dollar Index : 82.923
Change : 0.022 or 0.03%

The GOLD PRICE ended the day down $18.20 (1.48%) at $1,211.40 while silver held its loss to 5.4 cents (0.29%) and ended at 1853.3c.

'Twas one strange day for the gold price. Most of the forenoon it was flat, oscillating around $1,230. Then about noon New York time in one swoop it fell from $1,231 to $1,210, plump. In the aftermarket it lost another $12 to a low at $1,198.60. Rest of the day it flatlined.

The SILVER PRICE refused to let gold drag it down today, odd since silver is usually the more volatile member of the precious metals. Silver didn't undergo that big drop today and played calm most of the day, with a range of 1892c to 1845.7c.

This drop is so overdone it's becoming laughable. Bottom of the GOLD PRICE channel now is about $1,175. Silver is sitting on its bottom channel line already. Whether silver and gold prices have bottomed or will bottom around here, about now would be a perfect time for a surprise rally to gnaw off the shorts' greedy hands.

Rest easy, keep your eyes on the horizon. As the great entrepreneur H.L. Hunt used to say, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down."

A reader wrote and asked me, "What if they are trying to get everyone to sell their silver and gold by making prices so low people would sell in fear the price would drop more? What if that was the whole point?"

If I am asked that question, clearly I have expressed myself obscurely. I think that IS the point, to punish all those people who bought gold and silver and thereby quash (for a time) competition to the scabrous US dollar.

Now you can sneer at me as a natural born fool who believes in conspiracies, but I'm not talking conspiracy. I'm talking US statute (Gold Reserve Act of 1934 and Exchange Stabilization Fund), tons of proof of manipulation by GATA, and finally, self-interest. If YOU were charged with keeping the dollar afloat, would YOU try to gut the competition? Is a pig's little rear pork? Of course you would. And Ben Bernanke is at least as smart as you are.

I keep mentioning 1974 - August 1976 because the yankee government followed exactly the same silver and gold price smashing policy then. Y'all aren't old enough to remember it, but I am. I'm older than dirt. I was there. The US Treasury held periodic "gold auctions" to wreck the gold market, and sent it down 48%. But listen: after that August low gold rose 8 times into January 1980, and silver over 12 times. This is what I mean when I say they can manipulate "at the margin" and "for a time," but they can't alter the primary trend. They can only bend it for a while.

I saw some headline chirping that the Dow was "back above 15,000," implying that all's right with the world. Do these people ever look at a chart?

Dow closed today at 15,024.49, up 114.35 or 0.77% while the S&P500 lagged a bit, up 9.94 (0.62%) to to 1,613.20. While this MIGHT (in view of their previous fall) indicate the indices are rallying, it only brings them up to their 20 and 50 day moving averages (which are about the same spot, oddly).

To make myself clear, unless some crash alters my outlook, I expect stocks to make yet one higher high, probably later this year, I just don't expect it now. And in corrections, these B-waves or corrective waves against the trend, can be so strong they appear to be the start of a new day. Then they melt just as suddenly.

Of course, it makes no never-mind to me either way, since I'm not buying stocks.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver rose again today, which sent me scurrying back to my long term charts to check how much they had corrected since their 2007 - 2011 fall. For the Dow in Silver, 802.08 oz represents a 61.8% correction. It closed today at 810.69 oz, up 8.51 oz or 1.06% from yesterday.

Of that same 2007 - 2011 fall, Dow in Gold has corrected about 40% at today's 12.403 oz close (G$256.38 in gold dollars. Could go to 50% at 13.43 oz.

Not spoken here but hovering around in my mind is that a frequently seen correction is 38.2% or 50%. More volatile silver routinely corrects 75%.

US dollar index changed little today, down 2.2 basis points to 82.923. Yen lost 0.58% to 101.68 but the euro, just to change things up, rose 0.19% to $1.3037. Trends remain up for the loathsome dollar and down for the scrofulous yen and euro.

By the way, if you want a feeling for the coming demographic disaster in Japan, ponder that last year they sold more adult diapers there than infant diapers. Unlike the US and Europe, Japan won't import foreign workers to make up for the population loss.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Fell Gold Lost $45.20 Closing at $1,229,60

Gold Price Close Today : 1229.60
Change : -45.20 or -3.55%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.587
Change : -0.939 or -4.81%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 66.154
Change : 0.866 or 1.33%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01512
Change : -0.000201 or -1.31%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1303.70
Change : 21.40 or 1.67%

Palladium Price Close Today : 631.70
Change : 11.05 or 1.78%

S&P 500 : 1,603.26
Change : 15.23 or 0.96%

Dow In GOLD$ : $250.67
Change : $ 11.32 or 4.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.126
Change : 0.547 or 4.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 802.18
Change : 46.25 or 6.12%

Dow Industrial : 14,910.14
Change : 149.83 or 1.02%

US Dollar Index : 82.541
Change : -0.077 or -0.09%

Silver and GOLD PRICES fell overnight, beginning with big drops in Asia. Nice Government Men must be staying up late nights.

If silver and gold prices were both sleeping yesterday, they fell out of bed overnight. Gold tumbled $45.20 (3.55%) to $1,229.60 and silver lost 93.9 cents (4.81%) to 1858.7c.

Tumble took place before midnight this morning. Both the silver and gold price were basically flat all day. What I saw in gold was a $10 range, in silver 25 cents.

The SILVER PRICE has already lost more from its peak (68.2%) than it lost in 2008 (57.4%) Next support lies about 1750c. So has gold, 35% versus 30%. Following the seasonal pattern, if silver and GOLD PRICES don't stop here at the end of June or early July, it will be fall before they bottom.

People keep asking me where this will stop. I don't know where, I don't know when, I only know it will, unless the law of cause and effect has been repealed. Meantime, I sit and try to wax philosophical while bleeding. This looks more and more like 1974-1976, when gold lost 52%, then came back in the next four years to rise 8 times, and silver over 12 times.

History doesn't repeat, but it sure echoes.

A friend pointed out to me today that at the end of the calendar quarter, fund managers buy what has gone up and sell what's gone down, making themselves appear clairvoyant. Might be that they are unloading positions. Sounds more rational than most of the stuff I've heard.

Here's another example of how irrational markets are behaving, and how irrationally the media interpret their irrationality. Stocks rose today -- allegedly -- on a downward revision of US GDP numbers from 2.4% to 1.8% Speaking of rationality, let's just muse a moment on how reliable ANY government numbers are. How could they miss GDP by 33%? "Oh, shucks! We left out New York, Montana, and Texas! Y'all go back and refigure that GDP, right now! Shame on you!"

How rational is it to base anything on numbers like that, when you know also the government regularly LIES?

Anyhow, when this news got to the stock market, according to media reports, stock investors concluded that lower economic performance means more Fed inflation (a.k.a., "easing"), so stocks jumped up. Why? Because they believe stocks' performance is tied to continued Fed easing. Perversely, that's true, since stocks are not reacting so much to economic fundamentals as they are to the rising tide of inflation from the Fed. Yet it's also NOT true, sine the inflation will only make the economic problems worse over the long run.

That brings us to the NEXT irrationality. If inflation is good for stocks, why isn't it good for silver and gold? In this case I feel qualified to say that ONLY inflation drives the prices of silver and gold. So how is it good for stocks but bad for silver and gold? Nuts. Insane.

But while they might be suppressed for a while by investor ignorance, manias, or government manipulations, eventually the fundamentals will wreak their vengeance. Watch for it.

Dow added 149.83 (1.02% today to 14,910.14. S&P500 augmented 15.23 (0.96%) to 1,603.26. This brings both indices back to the top of their downtrend channel. Significantly higher price would say the downtrend has ended, but they are more likely to bounce off that top trend line downward.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver both hit new highs today. Dow in gold closed 12.126 oz, up 0.547 oz or 4.73%. Dow in silver rose 46.25 oz (6.12%) to 802.18 oz.

US dollar index rose 28 basis points (0.36%) today to 82.955. Yen remains fairly flat against the dollar, closing up 0.05% at 102.27. Euro, on the other hand, closed below its 200 DMA today and is free falling. Lost 0.54% today and closed at $1.3012.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Have Gone Flat Both are Strongly Oversold

Gold Price Close Today : 1274.80
Change : -2.00 or -0.16%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.526
Change : 0.033 or 0.17%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.287
Change : -0.213 or -0.33%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01532
Change : 0.000050 or 0.33%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1350.50
Change : 21.40 or 1.61%

Palladium Price Close Today : 667.15
Change : 11.05 or 1.68%

S&P 500 : 1,588.03
Change : 14.94 or 0.95%

Dow In GOLD$ : $239.35
Change : $ 2.01 or 0.85%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.579
Change : 0.097 or 0.85%

Dow in SILVER oz : 755.93
Change : 3.89 or 0.52%

Dow Industrial : 14,760.31
Change : 100.75 or 0.69%

US Dollar Index : 82.541
Change : -0.077 or -0.09%

Both silver and GOLD PRICES have gone flat. Gold's trading range today was only $10.70 and silver's only 31.4 cents. Dead. Flatlining. No life.

The SILVER PRICE actually rose 3.3 cents today to 1952.6c while the gold price fell $2.00 to $1.274.80.

Both are strongly oversold, way below 30 on the RSI, but no sign of life appeareth.

Might as well enjoy your summer while you're waiting for silver and GOLD PRICES to come back, because right now they're not in a hurry. Come back they will, but I'm going to stop plaguing myself about it and take a long view.

Somebody pointed out to me yesterday that Ben Bernanke is from Augusta, Georgia -- the South. I am so ashamed.

But then the Federal Reserve scheme was hatched in Georgia, too. On Jekyll Island. What's the matter down there? Somebody from North Carolina -- I mention no names -- once said, if you want to know what 250,000 Confederate soldiers died to prevent, look at Atlanta.

Stocks bounced a little today. It's remotely possible that yesterday marked the bottom of the correction, but I doubt it. It was nothing in today's bounce -- Dow up 100.75 or 0.69% and S&P500 up 14.94 or 0.95% to 1,588.03 -- that suggested that, only that yesterday both indices touched or nearly touched the bottom trend channel line. Good place for a bounce, but no warrant the decline has ended.

Dow in Gold and Dow in silver keep tying my head in knots, refusing to break away and run up or break down and fall. Gold and silver contradicted each other today (I'll get to that later) so the Dow in Gold rose 0.097 oz to 11.579 oz or 0.85% (G$239.35 gold dollars) while the Dow in silver rose only 3.89 oz (0.52%) to 755.93.

I check the US dollar index late in the day and the price I report is compared to the one I published yesterday. Today it's trading at 82.541, down 0.77 or 0.09% from yesterday. Gained nothing, really, but remains in a sharp uptrend.

Ten year US treasury note yield rose again today, 1.61% to 25.89 (2.589%). Although the close was higher, the intraday high was lower. Indicators show it way overbought, which means, ripe for a correction. However, it broke away with a gap, and the move probably won't end without an exhaustion gap.

Although the dollar index was roughly flat today, the Euro dropped 029% to $1.3082 and the yen lost 0.08% to 102.22. Both are merely pausing in sharp downtrends.

Y'all listen now, and don't forget this: ALL government help, like all government money, comes with a sock in the jaw.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Gold Price Fell $14.80 to $1,276.80 Silver Down at $19.49

Gold Price Close Today : 1276.80
Change : -14.80 or -1.15%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.493
Change : -0.465 or -2.33%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.500
Change : 0.785 or 1.21%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01527
Change : -0.000185 or -1.20%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1328.10
Change : -34.40 or -2.52%

Palladium Price Close Today : 656.11
Change : -17.15 or -2.55%

S&P 500 : 1,573.09
Change : -19.34 or -1.21%

Dow In GOLD$ : $237.34
Change : $ 0.48 or 0.20%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.481
Change : 0.023 or 0.20%

Dow in SILVER oz : 752.04
Change : 10.52 or 1.42%

Dow Industrial : 14,659.56
Change : -139.84 or -0.94%

US Dollar Index : 82.618
Change : 0.011 or 0.01%

Today's GOLD PRICE fell $14.80 to $1,276.80. Silver lost 46.5 cents and closed at 1949.3c.

Gold's low so far in this move has been about $1,268.70 last Thursday (20 June). Today's low came at $1,278.84, high reached only $1,291.22. Silver's low came Friday (21 June) at 1931c.

Today's trading for both metals was flat, not as low as Thursday or Friday, but no higher. No strength in these little narrow ranges.

The GOLD PRICE touched its bottom trading channel line on Friday. The SILVER PRICE may have fond its feet, but could drop another 75 cents. Other than an extremely overbought condition, neither one is flashing signs of a reversal.

Hate to tell y'all, but this feels a lot like fall of 2008.

As always, I've been thinking on all this, trying to chart a path, when my phone rang. It was fellow in a third generation business, one with a minimum 100 year time horizon. These folks have to be long term thinkers. He already has a lot of gold, bought much lower, and he called today to buy more. What does he know that I don't?

I get so frazzled watching markets from day to day and watching that trained pony Bernanke do his tricks that I take my eyes off the horizon. The end really isn't in doubt, but they throw up all sorts of distractions to make you think so. We live in the age of appearances, where any illusion works.

Until you see through it, and realize the truth is simple. It always is, once you identify it.

Simple truth is, inflation never works. Never has, never will. Always guts the middle class and savers, always ends in tragedy for the society that tries it. America is no exception to that truth. Wait and see.

That's why I will patiently sit on my gold and silver, and buy more whenever I see this decline turning. But y'all already know I'm nothing but a natural born durn fool from Tennessee, not one of them clever Yankee traders. Reckon I'm just doomed. Wonder why I don't feel no worse for it?

There are two mutually exclusive ways of viewing markets. In the first, markets are fairly free, but subject to manipulation at the margin by the Elite through government or large operators, though not permanently against the primary trend. In the second the Elite, which I feel more comfortable calling the "Money Power," can control every price, and uses manipulation to herd the public in any direction they want.

If the second is true, then their power is perfect and we might as well quit, because they are stronger than God. For some reason, I just can't swallow that. I keep thinking that most of their "power" is a bluff.

But what do I know? I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, where people mind their own business and a man's handshake is more binding than a contract concocted by twenty-five snake-bellied New York lawyers.

Stocks around the world -- especially in developing countries, continued to reel in Bernanke-itis. Dow today hit a low at 14,551, and settled down 139.84 (0.94%) at 14,659.56. It has lost 4.3% since 18 June. S&P500 lost 19.34 (1.21%) to close at 1,573.09, down 4.76% since 18 June.

Ultimate target here for the Dow may be as low as 14,000 and for the S&P500 1,540.

Dow in Gold barely rose today, 0.11%, to 11.43 oz (G$236.28 gold dollars), while the Dow in silver added 9.04 oz (1.23%) to 746.98 oz. No secret why. While the Dow fell 4.3%, gold fell 6.6% and silver 10.1%.

Turmoil reigns in the bond market, where the yield on the 10 year treasury note has risen from 20.99 (2.099%) on 14 June to 25.48 (2.548%) today, up 17.9%. In the same period the 30 year US bond has lost 2.9% and the 10 yr note 3%. HUGE moves for the bond market. Great bubble, Ben! How's that ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) doing?

Currencies were flat today, having exhausted the Nice Government Men in the past few days. US dollar lost 1.1 basis points to 82.618.

Having lost 2.93% since the 18th, the Euro ended unchanged today at $1.3123. Yen climbed 0.2% to 101.73, not much change either. Euro had been in an uptrend but now has fallen through all its moving averages and touched but didn't penetrate the 200 DMA today. Dollar has all the other currencies on the run.

Let's see. In one day Ben cracked stock markets around the globe, the bond market and interest rates, and silver and gold prices. The man's a genius. That's what I like about central banking -- its stabilizing influence.

US$1=Y98.3=E0.7620=0.051300 oz Ag = 0.000783 oz au.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Friday, June 21, 2013

Silver and Gold Price Bull Market Has Not Ended All Fundamentals are on Metals' Side

Gold Price Close Today : 1,291.60
Gold Price Close 13-Jun-13 : 1,377.60
Change : -86.00 or -6.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.958
Silver Price Close 13-Jun-13 : 21.582
Change : -162.40 or -7.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.716
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Jun-13 : 63.831
Change : 0.88 or 1.4%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01545
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Jun-13 : 0.01567
Change : -0.00021 or -1.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 236.20
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Jun-13 : $ 227.73
Change : $8.48 or 3.7%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.426
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Jun-13 : 11.016
Change : 0.41 or 3.7%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 739.47
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Jun-13 : 703.18
Change : 36.29 or 5.2%

Dow Industrial : 14,758.32
Dow Industrial 13-Jun-13 : 15,176.08
Change : -417.76 or -2.8%

S&P 500 : 1,592.43
S&P 500 13-Jun-13 : 1,636.36
Change : -43.93 or -2.7%

US Dollar Index : 82.312
US Dollar Index 13-Jun-13 : 80.774
Change : 1.538 or 1.9%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,362.50
Platinum Price Close 13-Jun-13 : 1,446.20
Change : -83.70 or -5.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 673.25
Palladium Price Close 13-Jun-13 : 729.35
Change : -56.10 or -7.7%

The big plunges in silver and GOLD PRICES yesterday took the Dow in Gold and Dow in silver up to new highs, but they gave back much of those gains today.

But then, if I were Bernanke or the Nice Government Men, and I wanted to scare investors out of gold and silver, I'd deliver the maximum pain possible to them. Maybe that's why I heard rumors of more senseless selling yesterday. By senseless I mean extraordinarily massive sell orders that can only be calculated to crash a market. No seller in his right mind would dump gigantic quantities on the market. How would that maximize his profits?

After sinking 6.39% yesterday, the GOLD PRICE lifted its head $5.70 today to close $1,291.60. That's down a propitious 31.6% from the August 2011 high, nice number for a turnaround. After losing 180 cents yesterday, silver regained only 13.6 cents today to end at 1995.8c. That's down 59% from the April 2011 high.

SILVER PRICES have now struck support from its 2009 - 2010 trading around 1950c. If it doesn't hold here, it will aim for 1775c.

Silver is massively oversold and momentum indicators are negative. Only the sentiment remains positive on a contrarian basis, since it is historically low. But sentiment is not price, and price says everything. Oh, and silver's seasonal pattern makes a low likely this time in June.

Gold will stop around $1,260 - $1,250 or fall to $1,125. As with silver, sentiment favors a reversal, but price says everything.

What is the one thing nobody expects silver and gold to do right now? Turn around and rally. Maybe Mr. Market will fool everybody. Silver would need to jump over 2100c and gold above $1,350 to establish any rally.

So we are left with new lows in silver and gold prices and no sign of a reversal yet. Y'all bridle your impatience and wait and watch.

Bull market in silver and gold prices has not ended, we have not entered into the Golden Age of Paper Money and Bank Credit. The correction is severe, but this is the last leg down. Be watchful, don't lose hope. All the fundamentals are on our side, as well as Bodacious Ben Bernanke, that Money-Printing Fool, and the US government.

This week demonstrated both the high cost of addiction to inflation, and the depth of the addiction. On Thursday when Bernanke said IF the economy improves the Fed might slow bond purchases later in 2013 and stop them altogether in mid-2014, nobody heard the "If," only the slowing and stopping. Stock and bond markets cratered, as did the US bond market while interest rates screamed higher. Higher rates sent the dollar flying.

There is no recovery; the recovery IS quantitative easing. Bernanke and the Fed are trapped. They sailed their ship into the uncharted waters of unlimited inflation, now they're trapped.

The Dollar has gained 2.27% in the last three days, up from 80.538 on its knees to 82.312 and strutting. Today the dollar crossed its 20 DMA (82.15), and remains in an uptrend that has persisted since May 2011. It has built a giant bearish rising wedge, but never mind. It's rising off the bottom boundary of that and could hit 86 before it runs out of steam.

The dollar's sudden rally smacked the yen and euro. Both fell again today, the Yen by 0.43% to 102.35 cents/Y100, the euro to $1.3125, down 0.73%. Both have much further to fall.

Thanks to the heroic work of the Nice Government men, no doubt, yesterday and today, stocks' Waterloo -- make that "waterfall" -- wasn't worse. Dow lost 3.7% on 19 and 20 June, S&P500 slipped 3.9%. Ended all question of whether stocks were rising on economic fundamentals or a tide of inflation. Inflation won.

Until noon today stocks continued to fall, but found "Somebody" to buy about then. Dow closed up 41.08 (0.28%) at 14,758.32. S&P500 gained 4.24 (0.27%) to 1,592.43. Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 fell.

Both indices have broken badly. Dow is targeting 14,400 at least, maybe 14,000. S&P500 is aiming at 1,540 or lower. Most likely stocks have one more rally in them before the year dies, but that won't begin until fall.

Dow in gold closed down 0.02% at 11.426 oz (G$236.20). Dow in Silver dropped 3 oz or 0.4% to 739.47 oz. Longer they move up, more doubt they cast on silver and gold prices. They need to turn down soon and duck back below those long term trend lines.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Have Made One Last Plunge for this Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 1285.00
Change : -87.70 or -6.39%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.822
Change : -1.800 or -8.32%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.827
Change : 1.341 or 2.11%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01543
Change : -0.000326 or -2.07%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1363.10
Change : -60.10 or -4.22%

Palladium Price Close Today : 663.55
Change : -31.30 or -4.50%

S&P 500 : 1,588.19
Change : -40.74 or -2.50%

Dow In GOLD$ : $237.42
Change : $ 9.84 or 4.32%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.485
Change : 0.476 or 4.32%

Dow in SILVER oz : 744.54
Change : 45.62 or 6.53%

Dow Industrial : 14,758.32
Change : -353.87 or -2.34%

US Dollar Index : 81.840
Change : 0.500 or 0.61%

Silver and GOLD PRICES needed a break, and today got one. Gold cascaded $87.70 (6.39%) to $1,285.90. Silver caved in 8.3%, 180 cents, to 1982.2c.

If y'all think this has me puking up fingernails in my waste-basket, think again. This is, I reckon, gold's last plunge for this correction and I am glad to see it. Ditto for silver.

Whither gold from here? It could stop at $1,260, or, if not, $1,125. That's where trading channel bottoms hit.

The SILVER PRICE either stops about 1875c or drops to 1750c. Before that comes support from 2010 at about 1950c.

This ought to be the last plunge of this long correction. It shouldn't carry much further, but for now we watch and wait, looking for signs of selling exhaustion and reversal.

You are watching Bernanke's clever inflation web come unraveled. Since 2008 he has taken the Fed and the world's central banks into the terra incognita of endless inflation. It was a brave bet, but one destined to come up snake-eyes.

However, all that money he has created hasn't gone to money heaven. It's still out there, and from here he has no option but to keep on inflating. Certainly, he doesn't seem to have the will to stop inflating and screw up interest rates to 24%. He ain't Iron Paul Volcker, and Obama ain't Ronald Reagan.

What happens when the world at large grasps that stocks were rising on inflationary gas? That the bond bubble is bursting? That the economic recovery existed only in the Fed's mind and government statistics?

Some of them will buy gold, and the door into the gold market is far, far smaller than the door out of the bond market. Silver and GOLD PRICES could rally savagely.

I can wait, patiently.

If Bernanke's mere mention, his hint, that the Fed might taper QE IF -- if -- the economy improves could wreak such havoc on markets, how will he ever taper off in fact? He can't.

In two days the Dow has lost 3.7%, the S&P 3.4%. How many days like that can Bernanke or his successor stand? How many such days can the White House stand? Dow today lost 353.87 points (2.34%) and ended at 14,7458.32. S&P tumbled 40.74 (2.5%) to 1,588.19.

Both stock indices sliced through their bottom channel lines and their 50 day moving averages. Next support stands at 14,550 and 1545. Both indices will probably reach that.

Ahh, but silver and gold prices both fell more than stocks, so the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver both made new highs.

Dow in gold rose about half an ounce to 11.485 oz (G$237.42), up 4.32%. If it corrects 38.2% of the fall from 2007 to 2011, it would rise to 11.6 oz.

Dow in silver rose 45.62 oz (6.53%) to 744.54 oz. A 61.8% correction of its 2007 - 2011 fall would take it to 802.8 oz.

Think a moment about currencies. Major determinant of a currency's exchange rate is what interest rate it pays. And bond prices move opposite interest rates. Bernanke's suggestion that the Fed would stop supporting bond prices/suppressing interest rates by buying bonds sent the 10 year T-not rate gap up. Closed at 2.419%, confirming a break out above last year's high, and setting me to wondering if Bernanke's Bond Bubble is bursting. Oh, this is going to be a mess, after he has ruined interest rates on everything else and forced everyone into bonds. Door to escape is very low and narrow as they try to flee bonds.

Rising interest rates are not healthy for gold, either, since gold pays no interest. Higher rates rise, more income must be foregone to hold gold. But then, rising rates will also knock any housing recovery in the head.

US dollar index rose another 0.64% today (50 basis points) for a two day gain of 1.54%. It ended at 81.84. Certainly will rise through 82, perhaps to 83.3.

Meanwhile the yen and euro have hit the skids. Yen dropped down 0.92% to touch its 20 DMA and close 102.79 cents/Y100. Euro lost only 0.54%, also touched its 20 DMA, and closed $1.3220.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Gold Price Closed Up $7.10 at $1,374

Gold Price Close Today : 1,374.00
Change : 7.10 or 0.52%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.64
Change : -0.05 or -0.25%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.54
Change : 0.49 or 0.77%

Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Gold Prices are Near the Bottom of an Even-Sided Triangle Sketched Out Since April

Gold Price Close Today : 1366.60
Change : -16.20 or -1.16%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.676
Change : -0.081 or -0.37%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.794
Change : -0.507 or -0.79%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01568
Change : 0.000124 or 0.79%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1439.40
Change : 5.30 or 0.37%

Palladium Price Close Today : 706.80
Change : -9.50 or -1.33%

S&P 500 : 1,651.81
Change : 12.77 or 0.78%

Dow In GOLD$ : $229.00
Change : $ 4.70 or 2.09%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.078
Change : 0.227 or 2.09%

Dow in SILVER oz : 706.69
Change : 8.99 or 1.29%

Dow Industrial : 15,318.23
Change : 138.38 or 0.91%

US Dollar Index : 80.639
Change : 0.006 or 0.01%

Clearly silver and GOLD PRICES are waiting on the Fed announcement, too. Today's trading wrung out both. Oddly, they didn't quite agree. Silver dropped 8.1 cents (0.37%) to 2167.6 cents although gold buckled $16.20 to $1,366.60.

Until 11:15 a.m. New York time gold traded above $1,373, but then gapped down to $1,366.30 and closed on that low. Today takes the gold price back near the bottom line of an even-sided triangle it has sketched out since April's $1,321.50 low. That line stands now about $1,340.

Gold's performance tomorrow will decide much. If it can recover and rally, then maybe it can break out to that triangle's upside. That needs a close over $1,380. On the other hand, a close below $1,340 will take it lower, to $1,321 or further. It's sitting now at the bottom of its recent trading range, as defined by Bollinger Bands.

SILVER PRICE ranged between 2188.8 and 2162c -- 26.2 cents, for heaven's sake. Why didn't they just take a day off today? Did silver fall less than gold today because it's stronger, or simply sluggish?

Here are the boundaries of the falling wedge on silver's chart (most of the time falling wedges break upside, but they also break out downside just often enough to bankrupt anyone who depends on them breaking out upside every time): Above, 2225c; below, 2100c.

This deadness frustrates me as much as it does y'all, but we just have to wait it out. Try comforting yourself with knowing that silver and gold prices usually make significant lows in June, and move higher the rest of the year. Remember also that their refusal to drop sharply lower so far indicates a lack of investor interest, that is, the sellers have gone to richer pastures. Commitments of traders reports reflect that. And silver lies moldering at the bottom of its recent trading range.

Meanwhile we wait, seething more than soothing.

Finally, there's a cloud on Bodacious Ben's horizon, no bigger than a man's hand, but a very black cloud: interest rates have turned up. Keystone of Bernanke's capitalism-killing strategy is to keep interest rates at zero. They bottomed a year ago May, and have steadily but gently declined since then. In May this year, they broke out upward. Recall, too, that when interest rates fall, so does the dollar, and so do bond prices.

What meaneth this meditation? Only that if Bernanke STOPS or even slows his bond purchases ("inflation"), he has a prickly tumbling dollar problem. Whoops. Did I forget to mention that as interest rates rise, the US government's financing rate rises, and it has to borrow more and its deficit grows? I am so forgetful, but I bet Ben ain't. I bet Ben sleeps nights open-eyed, staring at the dark ceiling and sweating 50 caliber MiniƩ balls.

Stocks answered yesterday's question by rising strongly today. Evidently most of the market shares my conviction that Bodacious Ben isn't about to pound a wooden stake into the stock market's heart by announcing Wednesday any slowing of inflation (a.k.a., bond buying).

Dow Industrials levitated 138.38 (0.91%) to close 15,318.23. S&P 500 wasn't quite as perky, up only 0.78% (12.77) to 1,651.81.

By crossing decisively above the downtrend line today, and closing above 20 day moving averages, both indices are set up to mount higher. However, should Bernanke not peep and mutter exactly what the market wants to hear, everything might change. That's the problem with making a market dependent on newly created money: very quickly everybody figures out what's driving it, and if you stop inflating, you stop the market. Riding a tiger is never easy.

Gold's faint today combined with stocks spurt took the Dow in Gold higher, up 2.9% to 11.078 oz. (G$229 gold dollars). Continues to move in a frustrating, drawn out broadening top. Only a close above 11.353 oz. followed by higher prices would gainsay that.

Odd thing about today's trading was that silver and gold disagreed, that is, silver refused tumble with gold. Dow in silver closed 706.69 oz., up 1.29%, up 9 oz. Here, too, there's a broadening top, vexing us waiting for its resolution.

US dollar index did today what you'd expect on the day before a potentially direction-changing FOMC announcement: it went flat. Oh, it gained 0.6 basis point to 80.639. Touching a support line, the bottom boundary of a broadening top, it has held just above 80.50. But nobody wants to bet on a rally or plunge on the day before the Fed messes with markets. Must hold 80.50 or fall to 79.25 and lower.

Yen and euro couldn't agree today, either. Yen fell down out of a nearly two week rising wedge, closing down 0.92% at 104.78 cents per Y100 -- not yet a decisive break of the uptrend. Euro rose 0.23% to $1.3396 and remains within the nose cone of a like rising wedge. Odds of that breaking out to the upside seem mighty slim. Expect rather a breakdown on any news from the Fed.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Silver and Gold Price Lows Came Back in April

Gold Price Close Today : 1382.80
Change : -4.50 or -0.32%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.757
Change : -0.196 or -0.89%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.557
Change : 0.362 or 0.57%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01573
Change : -0.000090 or -0.57%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1434.10
Change : -12.40 or -0.86%

Palladium Price Close Today : 716.30
Change : -13.50 or -1.85%

S&P 500 : 1,639.04
Change : 12.31 or 0.76%

Dow In GOLD$ : $226.93
Change : $ 2.37 or 1.06%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.978
Change : 0.115 or 1.06%

Dow in SILVER oz : 697.70
Change : 11.22 or 1.64%

Dow Industrial : 15,179.85
Change : 109.67 or 0.73%

US Dollar Index : 80.617
Change : -0.166 or -0.21%

Before we talk about silver and GOLD PRICES, let's look at the GOLD/SILVER RATIO. You'll
see it has formed a rising wedge -- "bearish," because it usually breaks down. And a FALLING gold/silver ratio means RISING silver and gold prices. More, the ratio is working off an extremely overbought condition earlier this month.

That's just one witness that is making me very nervous about expecting lower silver and gold prices. Sentiment indicators and Commitments of traders are at historic lows, the levels from which rallies begin, not avalanches. That divergence might persist a while, but not forever, and not long.

Silver and GOLD PRICES are shuffling down the hall with the valium droop, meandering back and forth in the same small range. Gold gained $9.70 Friday, then lost $4.50 today to end at $1,382.80. SILVER PRICES added 37.1 cents on Friday, lost 19.6 today, and wound up at 2175.7c. Today silver had a 22.3 cent range. Yo! Somebody put a mirror under silver's nostrils to see if it fogs.

Wait a minute! What's that on the silver chart? I believe that is a "bullish" falling wedge. If 'tis, twould forespeak a silver rally.

Markets love to do the opposite of what everybody expects. With most of the known universe (and most of their relatives) negative now on silver and gold, at the season Nobody expects silver and gold to rally, what would catch more people by surprise than a rally? Whether that happens or not, I can't see silver or gold falling much further. In fact, until the price gainsays it, I will continue to assume that the price lows came back in April.

It's not precisely clear what stocks have in mind. Friday the Dow lost 105.90, today gained 109.67. Either they are burning up buying power on the way to lower prices, or they are turning up again.

Today the Dow rose 109.67 (0.73%) to 15,179.85. S&P 500 rose a little more, 0.76% (12.31) to 1,639.04. The S&P500 stands a bit above its downtrend line and today pierced but closed not above the 20 day moving average (1,640.74) [Someone asked me why I watch the 20 DMA. Because it's the first tripwire of a turn.] Industrials did the same. Remember both are bouncing off touching their 50 DMA, which might have completed their little correction.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver moved sideways in the same vexing range. Dow in Gold ended at 10.978 oz (G$226.93), up 1.06%. Dow in silver climbed 11.22 oz to 697.7 oz, up 1.64%. Just wait. It's like an anvil you throw up in the air. It rises and rises, then slows down, seems to hesitate, and drops right back on your face -- unless you're quick enough to jump out from under it.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets this week and makes an announcement on Wednesday. Now think -- does Bodacious Ben REALLY want to announce they are curtailing inflation and so hammer a giant wooden stake in the stock market's rising heart? Or would he rather mumble Greenspanese that will at least sound like he will print more money, while saving face lest he be accused of fomenting hyperinflation. Y'all tell me what he'll do. I'll tell y'all that speculators are buying Portuguese and Irish bonds, which are only a tad better than Paraguayan defense bonds, anticipating the Fed will announce more inflation, 'cause more dollar inflation will make even the euro and Portuguese and Irish bonds look good.

I must have been holding that US dollar index chart the wrong way. I held it upside down today and noticed an evident and lethal broadening top. Owch. Dollar index closed down ANOTHER 16.6 basis points (0.21%) today to 80.617, it's sixth lower closing in a row. Any close lower than 80.50 leaves the dollar index below the broadening top's bottom boundary and pointing to 79.5 very quickly.

On the other hand, momentum in the yen and euro seems to be slowing. Both have formed rising wedges in the last two weeks. "Rising wedge" is usually preceded by "bearish" because it regularly resolves by breaking out downward. Yen fell 0.54% to 105.84 cents/Y100 while the Euro rose 0.145 to $1.3365.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Friday, June 14, 2013

Gold Price Closed at $1,387.30 Silver Ended at $21.95

Gold Price Close Today : 1,387.30
Gold Price Close 7-Jun-13 : 1,383.00
Change : 4.30 or 0.31%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.95
Silver Price Close 7-Jun-13 : 21.74
Change : 0.21 or -0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.19
Gold Silver Ratio 7-Jun-13 : 63.624
Change : -0.434 or -0.68%

Franklin didn't post commentary today, if he posts later it will be available here.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Thursday, June 13, 2013

Gold Price Lost 0.4 Percent for the Week Closing at $1,377.60

Gold Price Close Today : 1,377.60
Gold Price Close 7-Jun-13 : 1,383.00
Change : -5.40 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.58
Silver Price Close 7-Jun-13 : 21.74
Change : -0.155 or -0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.831
Gold Silver Ratio 7-Jun-13 : 63.624
Change : 0.21 or 0.3%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01567
Silver Gold Ratio 7-Jun-13 : 0.01572
Change : -0.00005 or -0.3%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 227.73
Dow in Gold Dollars 7-Jun-13 : $ 227.92
Change : -$0.19 or -0.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.016
Dow in Gold Ounces 7-Jun-13 : 11.025
Change : -0.01 or -0.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 703.18
Dow in Silver Ounces 7-Jun-13 : 701.48
Change : 1.70 or 0.2%

Dow Industrial : 15,176.08
Dow Industrial 7-Jun-13 : 15,248.12
Change : -72.04 or -0.5%

S&P 500 : 1,636.36
S&P 500 7-Jun-13 : 1,643.38
Change : -7.02 or -0.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.774
US Dollar Index 7-Jun-13 : 81.676
Change : -0.902 or -1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,446.20
Platinum Price Close 7-Jun-13 : 1,501.40
Change : -55.20 or -3.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 729.35
Palladium Price Close 7-Jun-13 : 759.45
Change : -30.10 or -4.0%

Silver and GOLD PRICES are trading in tight ranges, $20 today for gold and 45 cents for silver, and they've done that all week. Riding the same old seesaw, silver lost 21.4 cents (1%) today, falling to 2158.2c. The gold price lost 1%, too, or $14.20 and ended at $1,377.60. For the week gold fell 0.4% and silver slid 0.7%.

Ranges never last, so this one will break out one way or the other soon. Since the trend is down, most likely breakout direction is down, too. The SILVER PRICE range is 2133c to 2200c, gold's $1,375 - $1,415. Closes above or below those levels will lead to long moves. I expect one more plunge to end this long correction, and I expect it before June ends, but what I expect and what the market may be two very different things.

Most of all, silver and gold investors shouldn't worry about the "end of the bull market." It hasn't ended, because the cause (inflation) hasn't ended, and there's no end in sight. Where is the statesman who will tell all those living off government that the game is over? That rotten banks must fail? That you can't have your cake and eat it, too? He's nowhere in sight, so the corruption will continue, and so will the silver and gold bull market.

I'm sending out this weekly wrap-up on Thursday because this evening I'm driving over to Pickwick Lake to spend the weekend with my sons. Every year the women in my family take a week off at the lake -- they give us two nights. Mercy, I'm glad to get that. Till this year it's been only one night.

Markets are confused and spooky, the result of feeding off central bank inflation. Like a drunk at a bar, they get nasty and unpredictable when the bartender threatens to cut them off.

US dollar index lost 1.9% last week, and another 1.1% this week. Silver and gold prices eroded, slowly but painfully, and platinum and palladium were squashed, mostly today.

Although stocks returned from yesterday's thrashing with a bouncy day, they still closed the week lower.

Dow gained 1.21% (180.85) today after yesterday's 0.84% loss (126.79) and closed at 15,176.08. S&P500 today gained 1.48% to close 1,636.36.

All this up and down generates loads of broker commissions, but standing back and looking at a chart, stocks have been locked in a downtrend since their May high. Today's trading did no more than bring them back to the downtrend line. Both indices did touch their 50 day moving averages, which is a logical place for a little rally-ette to begin. On the other hand, closes below this mark will feed panic.

A strong feeling of "I've been here before" overcomes me when I view the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver charts. The high struck in August, 1999, a big drop followed, then the Dow in gold spent another year rolling over. Dow in silver was even slower to make that final high.

I don't think the same thing is happening, only observing the sloth in rolling over. Stocks are a very, very big market and take a long time to roll over. Add to that silver and gold's present weakness, and a frustrating back and forth plagues the chart and our nerves.

Dow in gold today closed up 0.243 oz (2.3%) at 11.016 oz (G$227.73 in gold dollars). Yesterday it fell through the 20 DMA, today closed back above it. Downtrend from May high, though, remains undamaged.

Dow in silver today jumped up 15.2 oz (2.2%) to close 703.18 oz. This should turn down soon.

For whatever reason, the Mighty Masters of the Universe, a.k.a. "central bankers," have decided to swing the pendulum the other way, jacking up the yen and euro and knocking down the US dollar index. Come to think of it, I hope they're manipulating exchange rates. Otherwise this chaos means nobody is in charge. Come to think of it . . .

Technically the US dollar index has broken down badly and is targeting 79 or lower. Today it peeled off another 15.8 basis points (0.2%) to end at 80.774. That's well below the 200 day moving average(81.07), below internal support, just below everything. There's some chance it might catch around 80.25, and as far as it has fallen already, it's due at least a small correction.

Those who live by inflation, die by inflation. Nikkei stock index had gamboled and cavorted higher as the Japanese Nice Government Men drove the yen lower and lower. Yen is now rising and today the Nikkei lost 6.5%. Think an 825 point loss on the Dow and you'll approximate the pain. Now, as a point too painful for rational and fastidious minds to ponder, I pass over the grotesquely mythological Keynesian notion that depreciating a nation's currency by inflation can either spur economic activity or raise stock market values. However, that insanely goofy notion now driveth stock markets around the globe.

Yen rose 0.77% today, made a new high for the move at 106.47, and closed at 104.93 cents/Y100. Euro rose 0.22% to $1.3363, heading for $1.3500.

After all the revelations of government spying, the Establishment damage control teams are being trotted out to tell us why it really is a good thing to spend billions spying, and to kill US citizens with drones. Hard sometimes not to throw up your hands in despair. The more you know, the worse it gets. To my great relief I read Psalm 12 this morning, which cured my lame perspective.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Rose with Gold Closing Above it's Twenty Day Moving Average

Gold Price Close Today : 1391.80
Change : 14.80 or 1.07%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.796
Change : 0.151 or 0.70%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.856
Change : 0.238 or 0.37%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01566
Change : -0.000059 or -0.37%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1481.40
Change : 2.40 or 0.16%

Palladium Price Close Today : 755.25
Change : 4.50 or 0.60%

S&P 500 : 1,612.52
Change : -13.61 or -0.84%

Dow In GOLD$ : $222.72
Change : $ (4.30) or -1.89%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.774
Change : -0.208 or -1.89%

Dow in SILVER oz : 687.98
Change : -10.66 or -1.53%

Dow Industrial : 14,995.23
Change : -126.79 or -0.84%

US Dollar Index : 80.906
Change : -0.145 or -0.18%

Silver and GOLD PRICES rose a little today, but without much meaning. Silver bumped up 15.1 cents (0.7%) to 2179.6c while gold climbed $14,80 (1.07%) to $1,391.80.

That does no more than float gold up to resistance. Here's a little spark, though: gold did close above its $1,389.41 twenty day moving average.

The SILVER PRICE has merely established another tight sideways range between 2140 and 2200c.

Everybody grows more bearish on gold (let alone silver) by the day. This is great, because the lower sentiment drops, the closer we are to a bottom. Gold is already at the bottom of its trading channel back to 2005. How much more can it drop? Could drop lots more, BUT its position sitting on that channel line argues against it, since gold remains in a long term bull market. Also the sentiment indicators argue against it.

Interest in both markets has dwindled down to nothing. Again, this is a good sign. Just be patient. Gold and silver will come back.

Following my words last night about how long your yankee government has been spying on you, my dear wife Susan reminded me of an event during our 1991 federal trial for willful failure to file income tax returns and conspiracy to delay and defeat the IRS (we were all acquitted). A major thrust of the government's case was to show they could retrieve every piece of financial data about everyone. Susan was on the witness stand, and the prosecutor asked her if she had spent XXX dollars on tee shirts at J Crewe the weekend before. Matter of fact, she had, and she had charged them. Never losing her aplomb (she never does), with withering sweetness Susan said, "Yes, I did, I bought them for my children. They're good kids, and they deserve a new tee shirt now and then."

Government could not have known about that charge without having access to credit card company records. And since that charge occurred AFTER the date of the dirty deeds we were accused of, government was abusing process by continuing to spy on us. But we're not special -- now they're spying on all y'all, too!

Stock markets around the world have succumbed to fear that central banks will shut down the inflation pipeline. This smacked the Dow down 126.79 (0.84%) to 14,995.23. S&P500 was knocked down 13.61 (0.84%) to 1,612.52.

That leaves the Dow below its uptrending bottom channel line, and the S&P500 right on its. S&P500 touched its 50 DMA today (1,610.55) and the Dow stopped a bit above its 14,969.20 fifty day moving average. If they don't turn here, Dow could fall to 14,500 and the S&P500 to 1,540.

Dow in gold tumbled 1.89% today to 10.774 oz (G$222.72 gold dollars). That's a 0.208 oz loss. This leaves the Dow in Gold well below its 10.97 20 DMA. Trending down.

Dow in silver also fell today. Lost 10.66 oz (1.53%) to end at 687.98 oz, barely above its 682.45 20 DMA. Appears to be rolling over downward.

US dollar index broke 81 today along with its 200 day moving average, and ended down 14.5 basis points (0.19%) at 80.906. Makes it look puking sick on a chart, like it has in mind to fall to 79 or so.

Japanese yen stood flatfooted today, gaining 0.03% to 104.12 cents per 100 yen. Euro gained 0.15% to end at $1.3333. Stretching for $1.3500.

US$=Y96.04=E0.7500=0.045 880 oz. Ag=0.000 718 oz Au.

On 12 June 1859 the Comstock Silver Lode was discovered in Virginia City, Nevada. Half of the value of its production came from byproduct gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Tuesday, June 11, 2013

The Gold Price Closed Down $9.20 at $1,377

Gold Price Close Today : 1377.00
Change : -9.20 or -0.66%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.645
Change : -0.276 or -1.26%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.617
Change : 0.381 or 0.60%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01572
Change : -0.000095 or -0.60%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1479.00
Change : -26.70 or -1.77%

Palladium Price Close Today : 750.75
Change : -16.90 or -2.20%

S&P 500 : 1,626.13
Change : -16.68 or -1.02%

Dow In GOLD$ : $227.02
Change : $ (0.23) or -0.10%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.982
Change : -0.011 or -0.10%

Dow in SILVER oz : 698.64
Change : 3.48 or 0.50%

Dow Industrial : 15,122.02
Change : -116.57 or -0.76%

US Dollar Index : 81.092
Change : -0.597 or -0.73%

Silver and GOLD PRICES remain locked in a short term downtrend. The SILVER PRICE lost 27.6 cents (1.26%) today to close at 2164.5c. Gold price lost $9.20 (0.66%) to $1,377.

Silver and gold are following the same pattern with this little short breakout above the downtrend (from April) line that they followed on a larger scale with the 2012 breakout above the major downtrend line. They broke out, then instead of following higher through slid down the downtrend line.

I am mildly curious because they didn't both fall immediately further after Friday's drop. That suggests a small number of sellers. I want to say, "Expect lower prices," but then I look at the Bollinger Bands and see both metals at the bottom of the range. That comes with no guarantee they won't fall further, of course, but does say that they're oversold for the range they've been trading in lately.

Y'all be patient, be patient. Silver and gold prices remain in a bull market (primary uptrend) and should put in their last low for this move in June. Don't let the central banks sucker you about their intentions: they WILL inflate, and they will inflate MORE.

From time to time people ask me what is the prospect of deflation rather than inflation. Usually they are prompted by one of Harry Dent's email offers for his newsletter. Now I am only a natural born fool from Tennessee and no economist, and Harry Dent has probably forgotten more than I will ever know, but on this point, I respectfully believe he errs.

What has been the Fed's response to financial crisis so far, and that of every other central bank? Print more money.

Bernanke fears deflation more than Harry Dent does. Read his November 2002 speech. All central banks fear deflation, like Superman fears Kryptonite and roaches fear Raid. That's why they turn on the inflation floodgates.

"Inflation" is NOT rising prices, but an increase in the money supply that usually causes prices to rise. "Deflation" is not falling prices, but a reduction in the money supply which usually causes prices to fall. Inflation and deflation are a CAUSE, rising or falling prices the EFFECT.

America must have the highest "goofs per capita" rating of any nation outside Antarctica. Americans seem actually to believe that all this spying on Americans is new. Where have they been? More than 20 years ago a policeman friend in a major city police force was telling me about surveillance devices they were getting from the yankee government that could listen to your conversation through an apartment wall 200 yards away. It would take me the better part of an hour to list all the other surveillance tricks they use that I know about, and I'm ignorant as a toad (but have fewer warts). Did anybody really believe that if government were given such such power they wouldn't use it -- on us?

Those who live by inflation will die by inflation. Stocks have been roaring and soaring on quantitative easing, a.k.a., printing money, from central banks around the globe, but yesterday the Japanese equivalent of the Fed's Open Market Committee met and didn't do anything, specifically, nothing about the rising interest rate on Japanese government bonds. Whoo! Investors thought, No more inflation, no more rising stock market -- I'd better sell my stocks. Japanese Nikkei stock index went poured over the edge, falling 1.45%. That set off a cascading waterfall of stocks that followed the rising sun around the earth-ball. Hong Kong fell 1.2%, European markets fell 0.9 to 1.4%, and investors everywhere reached for their wastebaskets for a nice, comforting puke.

In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average splashed down the rocks 116.57 (0.76%) to 15,122.02. S&P500 poured out 16.68 (1.02%) to end at 1,626.13. Today brings both indices back near or slap on their bottom trading channel line of support, and near their 50 day moving averages. S&P500 might fall to 1,540, Dow to 14,500. Let me make clear that I don't believe we have yet seen the ultimate peak for stocks. That should come later this year. Most important for y'all to remember is that stocks remain in a primary downtrend (bear market) and this is a bear market rally only. Worse yet, it's the peak of a 300 year cycle. Think John Law, Mississippi Bubble, and 1720.

Dow in gold slid today to touch its 20 DMA and lost 0.1% to 10.982 oz (G$227.02 gold dollars). Dow in Silver rose 0.5% (3.48 oz) to 698.64 oz. Gravity continues to make its influence felt.

Y'all have got to admit this "they-will-inflate/they-won't- inflate" daisy the central bankers have the public pulling is pretty clever. They are pushing markets around without any work at all. Fact is, they have climbed on an inflation tiger, and now they can't climb off without taking a mauling, chewing, and clawing.

US dollar index fell 0.77% or 59.7 basis points to cling by its fingernails to a ledge just above 81.00, namely, 81.092. Dollar index has now reached the point of no return. Either it must hold at 81.00 and turn up, or it will sink much, much further. This 81.07 level is also the 200 DMA, and this makes the third time the dollar index has tapped on it. Odds are right strong the dollar will fall through.

Yen was the chief beneficiary of the Bank of Japan's inaction. It rose 2.9% to 104.15 cents/Y100. It reversed a previous key reversal, a very rare event and more proof that nobody should every trade currencies because there's just no telling what governments or central banks might do.

The euro picked 0.42% out of the dollar's pocket and closed at $1.3313. 'Pears set to strike $1.3500.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.