Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Silver and Gold Prices Down for the Year — Bull Market Continues

Gold Price Close Today : 1201.90
Change : -1.20 or -0.10%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.339
Change : -0.242 or -1.24%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.149
Change : 0.707 or 1.15%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01609
Change : -0.000185 or -1.14%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1371.10
Change : 7.10 or 0.52%

Palladium Price Close Today : 717.40
Change : 7.50 or 1.06%

S&P 500 : 1,844.72
Change : 3.65 or 0.20%

Dow In GOLD$ : $284.47
Change : $ 0.89 or 0.31%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.761
Change : 0.043 or 0.31%

Dow in SILVER oz : 855.24
Change : 12.37 or 1.47%

Dow Industrial : 16,539.58
Change : 35.29 or 0.21%

US Dollar Index : 80.084
Change : -0.140 or -0.17%

Last year the GOLD PRICE closed $1,674.80 and the SILVER PRICE closed $30.173, so for the first time in 12 years they both have a down year. The GOLD PRICE has lost $472.90 or 28.2% while silver has lost $10.834 or 35.9%. Bound to happen sooner or later in a bull market.

Don't be fooled, the bull market in silver and gold prices continues. Harken not to the croakers and whiners. Next year the rally resumes.

Today's price movements mean very little, but I am sending y'all this commentary because it has year-end prices, for y'all who track that for your own investments.

May God bless you all with all Christ's tender mercies in 2014 and always, and may he bless the earth with peace.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Monday, December 30, 2013

The Gold Price Gave Back $11 Closing at $1,203.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1203.10
Change : -11.00 or -0.91%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.581
Change : -0.432 or -2.16%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.442
Change : 0.777 or 1.28%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01628
Change : -0.000208 or -1.26%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1364.00
Change : -12.00 or -0.87%

Palladium Price Close Today : 709.90
Change : -1.15 or -0.16%

S&P 500 : 1,847.07
Change : -0.33 or -0.02%

Dow In GOLD$ : $283.58
Change : $ 3.01 or 1.07%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.718
Change : 0.146 or 1.07%

Dow in SILVER oz : 842.87
Change : 19.49 or 2.37%

Dow Industrial : 16,504.29
Change : 25.88 or 0.16%

US Dollar Index : 80.170
Change : -0.330 or -0.41%

Today silver and GOLD PRICES gave back all Friday's gains. The gold price shrank $11 to $1203.10 while the silver price faded 43.2 cents to 1958.1c. The GOLD PRICE continues to dance around and now below an internal resistance/support line from the April low, while it remains above the downtrend line from the May high. Main point to observe is that it has not yet given any solid signal of turning up. Absent a close above $1,220 expect more downside.

The SILVER PRICE has the mildest of uptrends going, with double bottoms early in December and mid-December. Needs to stay above 1930c to maintain even that mediocre uptrend. A close over 2050c would signal an uptrend.

We're still walking through doll-house markets, so thin you could poke your finger through the walls. Dangerous to draw many conclusions from these.

Dow made another new all-time closing high today, although not an intraday high. That came Friday at 16,529.01. Oddly enough, with the Dow closing up 25.88 at 16,504.29, all the other indices fell. S&P lost 0.33 or 0.02% to 1,841.07. That negates the chance for a key reversal in the Dow, but not in the S&P500.

What can you say about markets climbing a wall? Stay out of their way. No telling where they will go or when they will break.

Silver and gold prices were slapped silly today, so the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver rose. DiG added 0.98% to 13.71 oz, a new high for the move. DiS didn't quite make a new high, 841.41 oz against the last high at 841.56 oz. Both moved up and away from their 20 day moving averages, first tripwire of a downturn. I keep looking at these charts and seeing a near completed move, but there's nothing to confirm that.

Scabrous US dollar stabbed its fans in the back again today, falling 33 basis points (0.42%) to 80.17. It crumpled at the downtrend line like Count Dracula facing a crucifix. I keep on reading analysts calling for a higher dollar, but I can't find anything here even as inspiring as drinking a cup of coffee and finding a drowned fly at the bottom. Worse, the Dollar Index has formed a falling triangle, and those most often break out to the downside.

Euro tempered its excitement today and traded in a smaller range but with a higher close. Gained 0.37% to $1.3800, right on the downtrend line. Let's see what happens when the Big Boys return on 2 January to scatter all these thin market chiselers.

Yen rose a little today, about like frost heaving the ground over a grave. Up 0.4% to 95.13 cents/Y100. Only question is, what's keeping it even that high?

Ten year treasury yield closed at 2.976% today. Friday saw the highest interest rate since July 2011. Higher rates mean trouble for the Fed on the same scale as the La Brea tarpit for a saber-toothed tiger.

On 30 December 1861 US banks suspended convertibility of their paper money into gold or silver. This was so much fun (for the banks) that it continued until 1879.

Y'all think now. What other business, other than banking, could default on its most solemn contract yet remain in business? If any of the rest of us tried that, we'd go to jail, but now the bankers, our new nobility, are Too Big To Jail. In the US we have a very advanced legal system, with two complete sets of laws: one for the banks, then one for us peasants. Pass the gruel.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Friday, December 27, 2013

The Gold Price Rose Again Today Closing at $1,216.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1,216.10
Gold Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 1,205.10
Change : 11.00 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.013
Silver Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 19.418
Change : 0.595 or 3.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.766
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Dec-13 : 62.061
Change : -1.295 or -2.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01646
Silver Gold Ratio 20-Dec-13 : 0.01611
Change : 0.000 or 2.1%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 280.11
Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Dec-13 : $ 278.25
Change : 1.86 or 0.7%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.550
Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Dec-13 : 13.460
Change : 0.09 or 0.7%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 823.39
Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Dec-13 : 835.36
Change : -11.98 or -1.4%

Dow Industrial : 16,478.41
Dow Industrial 20-Dec-13 : 16,221.08
Change : 257.33 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,841.40
S&P 500 20-Dec-13 : 1,818.52
Change : 22.88 or 1.3%

US Dollar Index : 80.500
US Dollar Index 20-Dec-13 : 80.710
Change : -0.21 or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,376.00
Platinum Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 1,331.90
Change : 44.10 or 3.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 711.05
Palladium Price Close 20-Dec-13 : 697.85
Change : 13.20 or 1.9%

The GOLD PRICE rose again today, $2.00 to $1,216.10. The SILVER PRICE rose 12.8 cents to 2001.3c.

Now behold and consider. In June the gold price intraday low was 1179.40 but it never closed below $1,200. Silver's June intraday low was 1817c, but its low close was 1853.3c.

In December's trading silver has made intraday lows at 1889c (early in the month) and at 1910c (six trading days ago). Low close has been 1914.3c.

The GOLD PRICE December trading showed an early intraday low at $1,210.10 with a low 6 days ago at $1,186. Low close has been $1,195.40 with two closes below $1,200.

All that is enough to paint a double bottom on the chart, but that needs confirming, like gold's MACD gave a buy signal crossover today. Silver's gave one on the 23rd. Rate of change is climbing out of the hole for both.

But of course the ultimate confirmation is HIGHER PRICE. Silver must climb above its last high at 20.48, then 2100c resistance, and the last peak in October at 2309c.

The gold price needs to scale its way clean to $1,267.50 December's high, and beyond. It catches my eye that both Platinum and Palladium have jumped sharply and are at or near their 20 day moving averages.

Silver and gold prices are lined up better than I've seen them in a long time. That may be an upside down head and shoulders forming in gold and a double bottom in silver. Confirmation! That's what we need. Wait! Is this some of it? HUI and XAU gold stock indices have also turned up.

Let's see what happens when we return to full markets after the New Year holiday.

Here's a turn around: stronger week for metals than for stocks, although the Dow today broke a six day streak of new highs. US dollar lost ground as it continues vacillating between heaven and hell.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 painted the first half of a key reversal -- new high for the move with a lower close. To complete the reversal that must be followed tomorrow by lower closes. After a six day streak of new highs, that's not hard to imagine.

What interests me more is this: the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver are both FALLING against that backdrop of strong stocks. A few days ago they made new highs, 13.629 oz and 841.56 oz. Today they stand at 13.58 oz and 820.43 oz, and silver is hovering right above its 20 day moving average (816.10 oz). MACD has flashed a sell signal in DiS but not yet in DiG. Rate of Change in both have turned positive.

Once again I remind y'all, I watch these sensitive indicators to pinpoint a turn in silver and gold early. They turned down this week, but will they confirm?

US DOLLAR INDEX fell sharply today, 14 basis points (0.17%) to 80.50. Cut clean through its 20 and 50 DMAs (80.41 and 80.42) at one point and visited a low of 79.82, but recovered to close down only those 14 basis points. Maybe it was a light market today and the Europeans came back from the holiday full of Christmas cheer, but in any event, why can't the dollar break through its downtrend line. Euro managed a huge gain, 0.42% to $1.3749, erasing the losses of the past three weeks. Could not hold at the $1.3800+ downtrend line, but touched it. Yen made a new low for the move at 95.10, down 0.35%.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

The Gold Price Gained $6.70 Ending at $1,205.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1205.10
Change : 6.70 or 0.56%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.453
Change : 0.075 or 0.39%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.949
Change : 0.106 or 0.17%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01614
Change : -0.000028 or -0.17%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1336.50
Change : -4.80 or -0.36%

Palladium Price Close Today : 694.55
Change : -3.10 or -0.44%

S&P 500 : 1,827.99
Change : 5.33 or 0.29%

Dow In GOLD$ : $280.59
Change : $ -0.48 or -0.17%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.574
Change : -0.023 or -0.17%

Dow in SILVER oz : 840.88
Change : -0.01 or 0.00%

Dow Industrial : 16,357.55
Change : 62.94 or 0.39%

US Dollar Index : 80.680
Change : 0.110 or 0.14%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES took back today everything they lost yesterday, which reminds me of a pointless battle in World War I. We've fought this ground before. However, keep your eyes open. I still expect a bottom soon, maybe with another waterfall, or maybe proved by a reversal.

Yesterday I mentioned swapping gold for silver, to take advantage of a drop in the GOLD/SILVER RATIO from 62:1 to 30:1, which is the next move I expect. If you bought gold at higher prices, this swap would have you "selling" gold at a loss, which you may be able to write off your taxes. Warning: Take not my tax advice, as I am clearly no tax adviser. Check with your own tax daddy about that. Anyway, swapping silver for gold and vice versa does not constitute a "like-kind exchange" for tax purposes. But besides any tax considerations, swapping gold for silver now would set you up to profit from that drop I expect in the ratio, probably a couple of years out.

There's hardly any meaning in a pre-holiday market, but I'm sending y'all prices for what they're worth, new highs in the stock market and all.

In my comments yesterday I said that "without central banks, world wars and socialism would be impossible: taxpayers and bond markets would rebel before they got too far." By no means does my denunciation of Big Government socialism constitute an endorsement of Big Government industrial capitalism or fascism (the correct name for the business/government partnership that rules us). None of these resemble in the least the only political and economic state I value: ordered liberty.

Tomorrow, Christmas Day, and Thursday, St. Stephen's Day, our office will be closed and I won't be sending a commentary. Tonight and tomorrow we will be celebrating the Incarnation of Jesus Christ, wherein all our happiness is embodied. In the Incarnation, the incomprehensible God is made comprehensible, our sins are forgiven and we have peace with God, and we have a faithful High Priest who, because he has suffered all we suffer, can have compassion on us. Glory be to God on high, and on earth, peace, good will to men. Alleluia!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Monday, December 23, 2013

The Gold Price Gave Up $6.70 Ending at $1,198.40

Gold Price Close Today : 1198.40
Change : -6.70 or -0.56%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.378
Change : -0.040 or -0.21%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.843
Change : -0.218 or -0.35%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01617
Change : 0.000057 or 0.35%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1327.40
Change : -4.80 or -0.36%

Palladium Price Close Today : 694.75
Change : -3.10 or -0.44%

S&P 500 : 1,827.99
Change : 9.67 or 0.53%

Dow In GOLD$ : $281.07
Change : $ 2.28 or 0.82%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.597
Change : 0.110 or 0.82%

Dow in SILVER oz : 840.88
Change : 3.90 or 0.47%

Dow Industrial : 16,294.61
Change : 42.00 or 0.26%

US Dollar Index : 80.570
Change : -0.140 or -0.17%

The GOLD PRICE gave up $6.70 to end Comex at $1,198.40. Once again, it giveth no signal, telleth no tale.

The SILVER PRICE lost 4 cents to 1937.8. Low came at 1926c. this changes nothing on the chart but stays above recent lows and finished the day after the Comex close 4 cents higher. No signals there.

Sometime here shortly both silver and GOLD PRICE will make a bottom and make it clear. Meantime, we watch.

Interesting is the weakness in the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which today closed down from Friday's 62.061 to 61.843. That's bullish for silver and gold. Also, I would still swap GOLD for silver at this ratio, targeting a drop to 30:1 and roughly doubling your ounces.

Sorry, I'm really rushing today, so this will be short. Nothing much happened anyway, nor will until after Christmas.

Stocks made new all time highs (ho-hum). Dow rose 73.47 (0.45%) to 16,294.61. S&P climbed 9.67 (0.53%) to 1,827.99. Higher prices coming.

US dollar index still cannot make up its mind whether it wants to rise or fall. Dropped 14 basis points to 80.57 (down 0.17%). Dollar's swoon sent the euro up 0.18% to $1.3698 while the yen stayed flat at 96.09 cents/Y100.

On 23 December 1913 the Federal Reserve Act was passed after most of congress had gone home. It created the greatest financial tyranny and tapeworm the world has ever known. Remember that without central banks world wars and socialism would be impossible: taxpayers and bond markets would rebel before they got too far.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Has the Gold Price Made a Double Bottom?

Gold Price Close Today : 1,205.10
Gold Price Close 13-Dec-13 : 1,235.70
Change : -30.60 or -2.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.418
Silver Price Close 13-Dec-13 : 19.559
Change : -0.141 or -0.7%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.061
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Dec-13 : 63.178
Change : -1.117 or -1.8%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.0161
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Dec-13 : 0.01583
Change : 0.0003 or 1.8%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 278.25
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Dec-13 : $ 263.57
Change : -14.68 or 5.6%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.46
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Dec-13 : 12.750
Change : 0.71 or 5.6%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 835.36
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Dec-13 : 805.53
Change : 29.83 or 3.7%

Dow Industrial : 16,221.08
Dow Industrial 13-Dec-13 : 15,755.36
Change : 465.72 or 3.0%

S&P 500 : 1,818.52
S&P 500 13-Dec-13 : 1,775.82
Change : 42.70 or 2.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.71
US Dollar Index 13-Dec-13 : 80.210
Change : 0.50 or 0.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,331.90
Platinum Price Close 13-Dec-13 : 1,362.00
Change : -30.10 or -2.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 697.85
Palladium Price Close 13-Dec-13 : 715.75
Change : -17.90 or -2.5%

The GOLD PRICE regained $10.10 to $1,205.10 on Comex. Silver rose 27.5 cents to 1941.8 cents.

I'm still scratching my head -- why is silver holding up better than the gold price? Silver's MACD hasn't crossed over in a sell signal, gold's has. Stocks have made less headway against silver than gold. Maybe it's just marginal & silver will catch up, or maybe it says something else, like a non-confirmation of weakness.

Think a minute about a double bottom. Markets make two bottoms about the same level, with a recovery inbetween. Those two bottoms mark where the market has found its footing & reverses. If silver & GOLD PRICES intend a double bottom, they're about there. The gold price low yesterday was $1,186 intraday, versus June's $1,179.40. The SILVER PRICE low yesterday was 1910c, versus 1817c in June, although at the beginning of December silver did hit 1889c. All of that qualifies as a double bottom, because the market needn't hit the selfsame price both times.

The double bottom is one possibility for a reversal. Another is a further slide down to the low $1,100s for gold and 1700c for silver.

However they might bottom, they must flash some sign, some confirmation, they have indeed turned. We don't have that yet.

On weekly charts silver is floating just beneath its downtrend line, while the gold price stands at $1,203 looking up at the line at $1,350 above. An uptrend shows week after week higher prices, with only a few weeks lower. That trend must change to confirm a reversal.

Be calm. Be patient. We will likely see a metals' low by year end. Our business has considerably picked up in the last three weeks, which itself says buyers are coming back into the market.

The truth is still the truth, cause still brings effect.

Big week for stocks, bad week for metals. Again. Dow gained 3% this week while the S&P500 gained 2.4%. US dollar index may have turned up. Gold, platinum, & palladium took a beading, down 2.5% while silver lost only 0.7% (14.1 cents). You know it ain't good when you're reduced to saying things like that.

By reaching new highs today, stocks showed that they intend to move higher still. Dow gained 42 (0.26%) to 16,221.08 & the S&P500 gained 8.92 (0.49%) to 1,818.52. This will likely continue the rest of the year, as stocks have a strong seasonal tendency to rise into year-end.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver blipped down after a long rise this week. Dow in Gold at end of day dropped 1.12% to 13.48 oz. Dow in Silver dropped 0.92% to 833.86 oz. Both indicators are plainly floating to higher altitudes.

Schizophrenic US dollar index pierced the downtrend line & rose as high as 81 today, only to turn and drop 8 basis points to 80.71 by day's end. Will it rise or not? I reckon it will, but if so it needs to climb over 81 next week. Euro rose 0.1% today to $1.3676 but it's uptrend seems broken. Yen turned a bit today, up 0.16% to 96.09 cents per Y100. No telling what will happen there.

One thing we know about dealers in the gold & silver market: a large number of them would steal the quarters off a dead man's eyes. Wherefore, y'all ought to be very cautious. I got a slug of emails in the last couple of days offering "Rare Silver Dollar Coins Poised To Jump in Value" at only $39 each. Only 3,805 for sale.

Look at the fine print: Each coin is guaranteed to be "in Brilliant Uncirculated to Fine condition."

Those are technical grades, BU and F. Since BU costs about $39 at wholesale, I heartily doubt these philanthropists will send you BU. You'll be lucky to get any Fines.

These are the same coins I offered on 4 December at $26.50 each. And if you want to pay me $39 each, let me know and I'll get a TRUCKLOAD for you.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

The Gold Price Plunged $41.10 or 3.5% Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1195.00
Change : -41.10 or -3.32%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.143
Change : -0.871 or -4.35%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.425
Change : 0.663 or 1.07%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01602
Change : -0.000172 or -1.06%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1318.00
Change : -24.20 or -1.80%

Palladium Price Close Today : 695.30
Change : -3.10 or -0.44%

S&P 500 : 1,809.60
Change : -1.05 or -0.06%

Dow In GOLD$ : $279.88
Change : $ 9.49 or 3.51%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.539
Change : 0.459 or 3.51%

Dow in SILVER oz : 845.17
Change : 37.34 or 4.62%

Dow Industrial : 16,179.08
Change : 11.11 or 0.07%

US Dollar Index : 80.790
Change : 0.540 or 0.67%

The GOLD PRICE plunged $41.10 (3.5%) today and silver tumbled 87.1 cents (4.4%) to 1914.3c.

The metals' delayed reaction to yesterday's FOMC announcement began about 4:00 eastern time, gapping down to just above $1,200 gold price and 1915c silver price. The SILVER PRICE traded flat most of the rest of the day. Silver's low came at 1910c and gold's at $1,186, nearly the June intraday low at $1,179.40.

If silver and gold prices intend to make a double bottom with the June lows, this is the place. Otherwise the GOLD PRICE will keep sliding into the low $1,100s before it finds footing and ends this wave. If silver doesn't catch here, it could land anywhere from 1750c to 1500c.

Remain calm, be patient. A bottom could come any time between now and end of the year.

Please forgive me, I got yesterday's closing price of the US dollar index wrong somehow, at 80.55 rather than 80.25 Don't know what went wrong, but my conclusion remains the same. Why should the US dollar index not drop on news that the Fed intends to keep on depreciating the dollar? Still maketh no sense.

It continued making no sense today when the dollar index gained 0.68% or 54 basis points to close right on its downtrend line at 80.79. Whatever I might think of it, the dollar index is trying to push up through that downtrend line for a rally. Moreover, the MACD flashed a buy signal today. It's nasty, but it's rallying. If it clears that downtrend line and closes above 81 then it will run toward 83. That might take some of the air out of gold's sails.

The euro lost 0.62% yesterday and another 0.16% today to close at $1.3661. It has left behind a double top with the October high a little above $1.3800. Poised above its 20 DMA ($1.3652) waiting for somebody to open the trap door and let it fall through.

Yesterday the yen fell through its May low (96.41) and today lost a small 0.03% to end at 95.94 cents per Y100. Since that May bottom was the low of a fall that began from a 5 year top at 132.18 cents/Y100 in October 2011, we have to claw back to 2008 to find the yen this low. It's headed for 90 or lower unless it gives some evidence of reversing.

Stocks behaved strangely today. By 11.11 points the Dow made a higher high than yesterday, a new all-time high at 16,179.08. Now it's not just because I mistrust stocks that I bring this up, but the S&P500 lost 1.05 (0.06%) to end at 1,809.60, and all the other indices dropped, too.

Reaching for new highs by inches makes me nervous that a market is running out of steam. What if this is a double top, one of those notoriously strong B waves that fool everyone?

Today's sharp drop in gold threw the Dow in Gold up to a new high at 13.63 oz (G$281.76 gold dollars). It has now moved into overbought territory on the RSI, but he MACD just turned up. Clearly headed up.

Once again, the Dow in Silver lags the Dow in Gold. It made a new high for the move today at 841.56 oz (up 2.62%) barely above the last high. But it, too, should move higher.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The Gold Price Closed Up $4.90 at $1,236.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1236.10
Change : 4.90 or 0.40%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.014
Change : 0.222 or 1.12%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.762
Change : -0.445 or -0.72%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01619
Change : 0.000116 or 0.72%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1342.20
Change : -1.50 or -0.11%

Palladium Price Close Today : 698.40
Change : -1.25 or -0.18%

S&P 500 : 1,810.65
Change : 29.65 or 1.66%

Dow In GOLD$ : $270.38
Change : $ 3.84 or 1.44%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.080
Change : 0.186 or 1.44%

Dow in SILVER oz : 807.83
Change : 5.73 or 0.71%

Dow Industrial : 16,167.97
Change : 292.71 or 1.84%

US Dollar Index : 80.550
Change : 0.330 or 0.41%

Comex closes before the FOMC vomits out its decision, so the GOLD PRICE closed up $4.90 at $1,236.10 while silver gained 22.2 cents to close at 2001.4.

Then the FOMC news hit, and the gold price dropped 1.7% to a low at $1,215.20. The SILVER PRICE lost 58.4 cents (2.9%) to a low at 1942c. Both climbed after that, the GOLD PRICE back to $1,220.90 and silver to 1976c. Like the dollar rising, this makes no sense.

How is this positive? News that took stocks way up to new highs didn't drive silver and gold to new lows, and they bounced a little after their lows. They act sold out, that is, their woe is not attracting new sellers.

But it's too soon to say. Let's see what they do tomorrow. It would be a good sign if they held on above today's lows, and a sign of lower prices if they break those marks.

Wait patiently. A low is near.

FOMC, the great and mighty, hath spoken!

Ahh, me. They said they would taper -- well, sort of. They will reduce long term Treasury bond purchases from $45 billion a month to $40 billion a month, and Mortgage Backed Securities purchases from $40 bn/mo. to $35 bn/mo. That's a total $10 billion reduction from the current $85 bn monthly rate.

Y'all are saying now that I ought to eat crow because I said they wouldn't taper but they did. I say, y'all can eat your own crow, because this is no substantial action, only cosmetic. Lo, I shall explain.

Say you had a REALLY obese friend who got up to 700 lb. by eating 6,000 calories a day. Now say he calls you up and tells you he is changing his lifestyle and reducing his daily calories to 5,294. You would deduce he is not serious about trimming his waistline, right?

The Fed's $10 bn/mo. reduction amounts to the same drop, 11.76%. Instead of creating $1.02 trillion a year, they will be creating only $900 billion a year. Wait, wait! Don't I remember that in September 2008 when the Fed cranked up the money creation machine that the Fed's entire balance sheet was only $939 billion, and it had taken 95 years to get there? And now, after adding $3 trillion in new money, they are going to "taper" by adding "only" $900 billion a year.

Aww, shucks! That sure sounds like a solution to me, like buying another case of bourbon is a solution for an alcoholic with the shakes.

But trembling Wall Street was relieved to find the Fed would keep on pumping out new money plus promised to keep interest rates low, which they cannot do without continuing to buy bonds. Dow leapt 292.71 (1.84%) to a new high at 16,167.97. Nor was the S&P500 far behind, adding 29.654 (1.66%) to a new high at 1,810.65.

Shucks, the millennium has arrived, and the Fed is planning to teach fried chickens to fly so they can just fly right into our mouths. Won't even have the trouble of picking up a drumstick.

I will now plainly tell you what the Fed is doing: they are ruining the American economy. They climbed on that tiger of pumping out money to bail out the banks' balance sheets (y'all know, the banks that are Too Big to Fail run by bankers who are Too Big to Jail), keep Wall Street rising, and suppress interest rates. They can probably do this for quite a while, but at some time it will explode all over the Fed, the dollar, and America. They are destroying the economy pimping for the banks. A time for jubilation? Nay, a time to weep and grieve.

Dow jumped enough to make a new CLOSING but not a new intraday high, and closed at the top of its range. S&P500 made a new closing but not a new intraday high. From here it must climb or die. 'Twould be very weak if it stops here and vacillates. Seasonally it should rally into year end in any event.

On an end of day basis the Dow in Gold made a new high today at 13.28 oz (G$274.52 gold dollars). Oddly enough, the Dow in Silver did not make a new high, but closed above its 20 DMA. Ended at 820.08 oz, up 2.95%.

On the announcement that the Federal Reserve would further and surely depreciate the US dollar, the US dollar index -- rose 33 basis points (0.41%) to 80.55. Sure. Right. That makes sense to me. Oh, yeah. This came after a low at 79.50.

To the US dollar index's rise the euro fell like a piano off the third story, down 0.62% to $1.3684. Japanese yen crumpled 1.56%, falling to 95.92 cents per Y100, by far a new low for the move and way below the May low at 96.41c.

SPECIAL OFFER: British sovereigns

One of the world's most common gold coins is the British sovereign, thanks to the British empire. It is 22 karat (91-2/3% pure gold) and has a net gold content of nearly a quarter ounce, namely, 0.2354 troy ounce.

We bought a slug of sovereigns today, and would like to find them a happy home. Yes, these are great survival coins, since they're in a small size and widely recognized and very liquid. These are all old sovereigns, i.e., minted before 1934, so may show a little wear but I guarantee the gold content. They will be a mixture of George V, Edward VII, and the various Victoria types. Head of the sovereign appears on the obverse and Pistrucci's unforgettable St. George slaying the dragon on the reverse.

THE OFFER

Ten (10) each British Sovereigns, mixed types but all minted before 1935 at $301.95 each, a total of $3019.5 plus $35 shipping for a total of $3,054.5 Based on spot gold at $1,220.90, that's a premium of 5.1% over the gold content and five bucks per coin LESS than our current retail price. Great survival coin (US Air Force used to put them in their downed pilot survival kits). Sorry, I have only Sixteen lots at this price and cannot re-order except at higher prices..

LIMIT two (2) lots per customer.

Special Conditions:

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed.

It increases your chances of getting your order filled if you offer me a second choice, e.g., "I want to order Two lots but if not available will take One lot." ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to [email protected] No phone orders, please. Please do NOT order by replying to this email, because it will delay your email.

Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week, I tripped, dropped, and smashed my crystal ball, and our fortune-teller is on strike, so I can no longer read your mind.

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, and you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

8. Please mention you saw this offer on goldprice.org in your email.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

The Gold Price Fell to $1,231.20 Today

Gold Price Close Today : 1231.20
Change : -14.30 or -1.15%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.792
Change : -0.257 or -1.28%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.207
Change : 0.084 or 0.14%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01608
Change : -0.000022 or -0.14%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1343.70
Change : -15.50 or -1.14%

Palladium Price Close Today : 699.65
Change : -6.25 or -0.89%

S&P 500 : 1,781.00
Change : -5.54 or -0.31%

Dow In GOLD$ : $266.54
Change : $ 2.91 or 1.10%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.894
Change : 0.141 or 1.10%

Dow in SILVER oz : 802.10
Change : 9.82 or 1.24%

Dow Industrial : 15,875.26
Change : -9.31 or -0.06%

US Dollar Index : 80.220
Change : 0.000 or 0.00%

Some of the Nice Government Men did get around to taking out their club and bashing silver and GOLD PRICES. The SILVER PRICE staggered back 25.7 cents to 1979.2c, familiar territory. The gold price went down for $14.30, landing on $1,231.20.

Plumb on 8:30 when New York opened somebody sold the dickens out of both silver and gold, then little happened the rest of the day.

All right, I'm going to tell y'all what I see. Eight days ago silver and gold prices broke through the downtrend line from the October top. They remain above and outside that downtrend line.

If the GOLD PRICE drops below $1,210 or silver below 1890c, they'll tumble. Otherwise, we are waiting for them to confirm this little breakout with a closes above resistance at 2100c and $1,267.

Other than a giant whacking that fell on silver and gold, nothing much happened today. Over all is cast the shadow of the midgets and teenagers who run the Federal Reserve, waiting on them to tell us tomorrow after the FOMC meeting how they plan to mess up the US economy and monetary system next.

The Greeks used to say that when you fight an enemy a long time, you become your enemy. Your take on your enemy's position. The Fed is a picture of that: the capitalist central bank has become the head socialist. Now think: what presupposition underlies a central bank? Other than stealing the most money from the most people the most easily? A central bank presupposes that somebody, or some committee, is clever enough, and hath knowledge exhaustive enough, to run the economy. But instead of Stalin, we have Bernanke. Think about the gall: that one man or twenty men know better than the millions of market participants what business should be done, how much, and at what interest rate.

If that ain't certifiably insane, I ain't a natural born fool from Tennessee.

US dollar index didn't even move. Literally, it was unchanged at 80.22. Euro was also nearly unchanged, up 0.05% to $1.3768. Yen rose 0.34% to 97.40, but it's so far down in the well you can hardly spy it anyway. Dow lost 9.31 (0.6%) to 15,875.26 and the S&P gave up 5.54 (0.31%) to end at 1,781.

Who knows what nutty effect the FOMC's announcement will wreak? As I said yesterday, their mere meeting, let alone their speaking, jams human brain waves.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Monday, December 16, 2013

The Gold Price Jumped Another $9.80 Today Ending at $1,245.50

Gold Price Close Today : 1245.50
Change : 9.80 or 0.79%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.049
Change : 0.490 or 2.51%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.123
Change : -1.055 or -1.67%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01610
Change : 0.000269 or 1.70%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1359.20
Change : -2.80 or -0.21%

Palladium Price Close Today : 715.90
Change : 0.15 or 0.02%

S&P 500 : 1,786.54
Change : 11.22 or 0.63%

Dow In GOLD$ : $263.64
Change : $ 0.07 or 0.03%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.754
Change : 0.003 or 0.03%

Dow in SILVER oz : 792.29
Change : -13.24 or -1.64%

Dow Industrial : 15,884.57
Change : 129.21 or 0.82%

US Dollar Index : 80.220
Change : 0.024 or 0.03%

After a $9.70 jump Friday, the GOLD PRICE jumped another $9.80 (0.8%) today and closed Comex at 1,245.50. Maybe that is just short covering ahead of the FOMC meeting, but the GOLD/SILVER RATIO supports an interpretation of strength. It dropped nearly a whole point today, from 63.178 on Friday to 62.123 today, almost dead on the 30 year average price.

The SILVER PRICE rose 49 cents to close over 2000c at 2004.9. This sets both silver and gold prices above their 20 DMAs (1982c and $1,242.56). However, even with other positive indicators, that doesn't mean much until they climb above the last highs at $1,267.50 and 2048c. Really, that silver needs to rise above 2100c.

Problem is, that hog-brained FOMC meeting keeps us from drawing comfortable and reliable conclusions from this price action. Those clowns could say this or that and the public interprets it in some outlandish manner idiosyncratic to people who believe government officials, watch TV, and confuse a bull market with investing genius, and our boat is sunk.

Just as the Soviet Union used to jam radio waves from European stations, so the FOMC meeting this Tuesday-Wednesday overhangs and jams brain waves, heterodyning sane discourse this week. On Wednesday they will announce whether they will taper or not -- or is that "tapir"? I get confused. Do they mean the pig-like animal? Say, are they saying the Fed is going to the pigs?

In any event, I don't see how the Fed can stop buying bonds. That's how they manipulate interest rates, and if they stop manipulating and let nature take its course, their US treasury bond bubble will burst and the stock market will tank, and they might precipitate a global panic. Faced with those choices, the Fed governors, who are NOT chosen for courage, will hardly taper. I don't see how they can ever stop, but then, I ain't no central banker. I'm just a durned natural born fool from Tennessee.

Apparently those brain-wave-jammed investors expect the Fed NOT to taper, so they covered short positions in gold. Why? Not tapering means more inflation, and inflation feeds gold. Apparently, it feeds stocks, too, since they rose as well.

Dow jumped 0.82% or 129.21 points to $15,884.57. S&P500 came back from leaning over the brink on a rotten rope Friday to gain 11.22 (0.63%) and close at 1,786.54. 'Twas a respectable but not dispositive move. That is, they jumped up smartly, but crossed no moving averages, moved no MACD, startled no RSI. they merely ricocheted off bottom Bollinger bands and support at the last high. Tomorrow will tell if they can punch through the midline of those Bollinger Bands, which is also the 20 DMA.

Dow in Gold rose a little today, but not to amount to anything. DiG gained 0.65% to 12.81 oz (G$264.81 gold dollars). Rate of change is still negative, MACD still counsels "Sell." DiS in fact LOST 0.72% to 795.62 oz by day's end. Trend in both remains sturdily down, down.

US Dollar Index got as close to flat today as it could without hugging asphalt. Closed a single basis point above Friday, 80.22. Has now knocked twice on the 50 DMA (80.39) but can't get through by the hair of its chinny chin chin. Maybe if Bernanke huffs and puffs after the FOMC meeting the dollar can rise. Analysts I respect still are waiting for the buck to rise, but I can't see it. It fell this year out of the trading channel from Spring 2011. Beneath its 200, 50, and 20 day moving average. If it can't hold on at 80, or 79 at the worst, its turkey is basted.

On 16 December 1967 in Memphis I married Susan Askew. Best thing I ever did, God bless her!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Friday, December 13, 2013

The Gold Price Bounced Back Closing Up for the Week at $1,235.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1,235.70
Gold Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 1,230.30
Change : 5.40 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.559
Silver Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 19.465
Change : 0.094 or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.178
Gold Silver Ratio 5-Dec-13 : 63.206
Change : -0.028 or 0.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01583
Silver Gold Ratio 5-Dec-13 : 0.01582
Change : 0.000 or 0.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 263.57
Dow in Gold Dollars 5-Dec-13 : $ 269.18
Change : -5.61 or -2.1%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.750
Dow in Gold Ounces 5-Dec-13 : 13.021
Change : -0.27 or -2.1%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 805.53
Dow in Silver Ounces 5-Dec-13 : 823.03
Change : -17.50 or -2.1%

Dow Industrial : 15,755.36
Dow Industrial 5-Dec-13 : 16,020.20
Change : -264.84 or -1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,775.82
S&P 500 5-Dec-13 : 1,805.09
Change : -29.27 or -1.6%

US Dollar Index : 80.210
US Dollar Index 5-Dec-13 : 80.270
Change : -0.06 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,362.00
Platinum Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 1,355.40
Change : 6.60 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 715.75
Palladium Price Close 5-Dec-13 : 735.45
Change : -19.70 or -2.7%

Today silver and GOLD PRICES bounced back, moderately. the gold price gained $9.70 to a Comex close at $1,235.70. Silver found 15.7 cent to raise it to 1955.9, not much given the high came at 1974c. On a weekly chart gold flashed an MACD buy signal two weeks ago, but it's a near thing.

On the daily chart the GOLD PRICE broke out over the downtrend line from the October high on Monday, and today's action merely took it back to that line for a Kiss Good-Bye. Yeah, that sounds loony, but there 'tis. Other indicators pointing up, too, but we need some confirmation. First I'd like to see a gold price above that 20 DMA (1,245) next week early then closing above $1,257.50 (last high) and $1,295 (where it broke down).

The SILVER PRICE monthly chart is a cliffhanger, with silver dead on the uptrend line. On a weekly chart it's just beneath the downtrend line.

Today like gold, silver merely moved back to that downtrend line it had burst though on 6 December. Everything but the Rate of Change points up.

Next week will be interesting. We'll either see a big metals slide below recent lows, or gains confirming that bottom on 6 December.

The worm turned this week, but not without speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Stocks dropped for the second week in a row. Dollar index flatlined.

Dow managed a face saving little rise today after losing 286.1 the three days before. Added 15.93 or 0.1% to 15,755.36. S&P500 lost still, down 0.18 to $1,775.32, after making a new high on Monday.

The Dow "threw over," that is, climbed above and outside its upper trading channel line, back on 13 November, a month ago. Yesterday it fell cut through that line like a bag of mothballs pushed out of a C130 cargo jet. It's way below its 20 DMA (15,960) and hovering not far above its 50 DMA (15,655). Nothing in other indicators suggests it plans to turn up any time soon. I suspect this one's going to hurt

S&P 500 offers much the same picture as the Dow -- below its 20 DMA (1795) and nearing its 50 DMA (1762), but it hasn't quite fallen back into that trading channel. The line is about where the 50 DMA is. (It climbed out of that trading channel on 18 October.) So far there's no reason to say "This is The Big One" but stocks are lining up a painful correction.

Y'all may not put as much stock in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Dollars as I do, but only because you haven't followed them as long as I have and witnessed their reliability.

Now a natural born fool from North Carolina wants to know about the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. I just divide the price of the Dow by the Gold or Silver price to get the indicator. It is very sensitive -- USUALLY -- to changes in the course of stocks against silver or gold. That's why I've been sweating bullets and spitting iron filings since these indicators crossed above their long term downtrend line. Waiting now for both to drop back under those lines. They sometimes turn before prices turn, or before you can be sure they've turned.

After rising barely through their 20 DMAs yesterday, they dropped back through them today. DiS closed lost 0.92% to close the day at 801.39 oz. DiG ended at 12.73 oz, lower by 0.98%. Both have established downtrends, the first sign that silver and gold are about to turn up against stocks. The move is just starting, so we need to see more confirmation, but all indicators point down.

US Dollar index rose 1.4 basis point today (0.04%) to 80.21. Best you can say for it is that it's no longer under support at 80, and it bumped against its 50 DMA (80.39) today. Otherwise it lacks confidence and decisiveness.

Euro, one of the dollar's three competitors for "Rottenest Fiat Currency on the Earthball," fell a tiny 0.7% to $1.3743. Might make another run for $1.3800.

Yen crashed 0.92% yesterday, and added back 0.15% today, ending at 96.62 cents per Y100. I wish those Japanese Nice Government Men would make up their minds whether they're going to push the yen off the cliff or not.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

The Gold Price Closed Down $32.50 to $1,226

Gold Price Close Today : 1262.40
Change : -32.50 or -2.51%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.402
Change : -0.896 or -4.41%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.065
Change : 1.271 or 1.99%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01537
Change : -0.000306 or -1.95%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1363.50
Change : -20.80 or -1.50%

Palladium Price Close Today : 719.80
Change : -18.30 or -2.48%

S&P 500 : 1,775.50
Change : -6.72 or -0.38%

Dow In GOLD$ : $257.73
Change : $ 4.81 or 1.90%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.468
Change : 0.233 or 1.90%

Dow in SILVER oz : 811.23
Change : 30.68 or 3.93%

Dow Industrial : 15,739.43
Change : -104.10 or -0.66%

US Dollar Index : 80.196
Change : 0.314 or 0.39%

I told y'all I was still braced for bad action in silver and GOLD PRICES, and today it hit. Things were rocking along fine until about 4:30 a.m. EST, late night even in London, when "somebody" slammed gold at $1,254. Whatever they hit it with, it gapped down to $1,245, stayed around there until New York opened, then from 8:30 to 10 declined and about 11:1.m. gapped down again to $1,225.

The GOLD PRICE closed Comex down $32.50 (2.6%) at $1,226.00 while the SILVER PRICE ended down 89.6 cents (4.4%) at 1940.2c.

Whew. What can you say about that?

A lot. First, the silver price stopped about where it made its low on 9 December, one day after what appeared to be a bottom. Next, it remains in an uptrend. It's true. But the Rate of Change turned negative with today's fall.

The gold price was also driven to its 9 December low, but remains above the support line. I don't know any more than y'all do what they will do tomorrow. After today's drop, odds say they will drop further, but we'll wait and let the market tell us.

Be calm. A year from now y'all will look like investing geniuses after silver and gold prices have rallied.

A reader describing himself as a "natural born fool from RI" asked me what in the world the US dollar index is all about and what in the world it means and why should he care. Here's why:

The US Dollar Index is an weighted index of the dollar's value against currencies of its most significant trading partners.   The basket of currencies contains the Euro, Japanese yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Swedish Kronor (why that, I don't know).  Here are the weights:

Euro, 57.6%

Yen, 13.6%

Pound sterling, 11.9%

Canadian dollar, 9.1%

Swedish Krona, 4.2%

Swiss franc, 3.6%.

The US dollar index takes into account not only changes in the dollar's value against one currency, but several, and so ought to give a fuller picture of the dollar's value.  Comparing the US dollar to the Zimbabwean dollar would give one the idea the dollar was very healthy, but a chart of the US$ in euros would give quite another idea.

The US Dollar Index offers a composite view of the dollar's value against its major trading partners.  It has traded as high as $164.22 in February 1985 and as low as 70.70 on 16 March 2008.

The US Dollar index double peaked in 2000 and 2001 at 121, and has been in a bear market (declining) ever since. Range since 2003 -2013 has been 92 to 70.70.    Range late 2009 to now has been 72.70 to 88.70.  Range last two years has been 78 - 85.  A drop below the support line now at about 80 would send it falling much further.

Since most of y'all live and trade with dollars every day, its change in value is fraught with significant effect upon your life. Also, the main competitors with the US dollar are silver and gold. Distrust in the dollar sends money fleeing into silver and gold, generally but not every single day. Thus watching the US dollar index clues us about gold and silver's future.

TODAY'S MARKETS

Woe is everybody. Lots of money went to money heaven today.

Stocks, for example, lost big again. Dow dropped 104.10 (0.66%) to 15,739.43. S&P500 followed right along, losing 6.72 (0.38%) to 1,775.5. Lo, both draweth nigh their 50 DMAs (15,640 and (1,760) as the decline begun on November's last day continues. Dow has already fallen back within its old trading channel, and the S&P isn't far from it, about where its 50 DMA stands (1,760).

Sharp drops in silver and gold today sent the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver back up above their 20 DMAs. This disturbeth not the larger downtrend. DiG gained 1.56% to end at 12.85 oz (G$265.63 gold dollars). DiS rose 3.5% to 808.81 oz. Be calm -- they've turned down and in markets, unlike gravity, nothing rises or falls in a straight line.

Well, the US Dollar Index managed to rise today, up 31.4 basis points (0.4%) to 80.196, drawing away from that dangerous 80 support lie. This still ain't stellar, with the dollar index below its 50 DMA (80.38) and 20 DMA (80.61). Very hard to parse where the dollar is headed, but it's not really flashing strength. Indecision, maybe, but not strength.

Euro lost 0.25% to $1.3752 on the US dollar's "strength." It had almost reached the $1.3800 line.

Yen fell again today, down 0.92% to 96.72 cents/Y100, and to a new low for the move. Rotten outlook if it can't turn around from here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

The Gold Price Gave Up $3.90 to $1,258.50

Gold Price Close Today : 1262.40
Change : 27.10 or 2.19%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.256
Change : 0.612 or 3.12%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.322
Change : -0.562 or -0.89%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01605
Change : 0.000143 or 0.90%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1387.80
Change : -7.20 or -0.52%

Palladium Price Close Today : 738.00
Change : -1.30 or -0.18%

S&P 500 : 1,802.62
Change : -5.75 or -0.32%

Dow In GOLD$ : $261.56
Change : $ (6.61) or -2.47%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.653
Change : -0.320 or -2.47%

Dow in SILVER oz : 788.56
Change : -27.23 or -3.34%

Dow Industrial : 15,973.13
Change : -52.40 or -0.33%

US Dollar Index : 79.979
Change : -0.177 or -0.22%

The GOLD PRICE gave up $3.90 to $1,258.50 while silver added 4.2 cents to 2029.8c.

This was a satisfactory day, despite the GOLD PRICE retreat. Gold merely touched back to its 20 DMA ($1,252) and stopped. This came after a brisk three-day climb. That's sound, that's solid. Also, volume dropped today.

On Comex the SILVER PRICE actually added 4.2 cents but at day's end it was down 14 cents to 2027c, still way above the 20 dma (1997c). All other indicators still point in the same direction: up.

What I missed telling y'all yesterday is that over the last three to four days both metals have pierced the downtrend line from the November highs.

That downtrend line forms the top of a falling wedge, by the way, and these have fooled us in the past. They ought to break out upside, and they have been doing that for the last year and more, but then they keep failing and falling back. Wherefore, let us demand more confirmations, such as

1. A close above the 50 day moving averages, now $1,278 and 2113c.

2. Closes above the last highs, 2309c and $1,362.

3. Remaining above support about 2000c and $1,252.

So what can I say to all this? That we tentatively have a bottom, 6 December's closes at 1946.5c and $1,230.30, AS LONG AS they continue to meet the hurdles above.

I bought a tiny bit today. This is getting better day by day, but I am still braced against a disappointment.

Better pay attention to those key reversals and descending peaks. Otherwise, they'll come back to bite you like they did stocks today.

Stocks gained 204.02 in two days last week, in one day alone adding 198.69 points. In the last two days, they've lost 182 points, and that's not over. Another caveat: got to watch those B-waves. Markets often correct in a wave down, wave up, wave down pattern -- ABC. B-wave corrections are often so strong they'll fool you into believing the correction has passed. It hasn't.

Dow today lost 129.6 (0.81%) to 15,843.53. S&P500 misplaced some 20.4 points (1.13%) to land on 1,782.22. All the other indices I watch fell today, too, and ended at the lows.

What's stacked against stocks? Both indices closed beneath their 20 day moving average (15,970 and 1,796). S&P500 is heading for the upper boundary line of its former trading range where it "threw over" (crossed above the upper boundary). Dow closed right at that line today. MACD honked a SELL signal on 1 December, RSI is falling, Rate of Change for both has gone into negative territory. All this witnesses that momentum points firmly down and lower prices will come.

Now let us turn to my fav-O-rite indicators, the Dow in Gold and the Dow in Silver. Oh, yes, both dropped today, yea, and both stand well below their 20 DMA (12.77 oz and 800 oz). MACD, RSI, RoC all point down. Dow in gold ended the day at 12.6 oz (G$260.46 gold dollars), lower by 0.49%. Dow in silver fell to 778.32 oz, losing 0.55% from yesterday.

Yea, I confess, it is too early to proclaim with certainty that silver and gold have turned up against stocks, but that appears to be the case. (Remember, these indicators RISE as stocks gain value against silver and gold, and FALL when stocks are weaker than silver and gold.) Both indicators have traced double tops, and now turned down. Closes below the 50 and 200 day moving averages will add confirmation, but the big confirmation comes when they close once more beneath the long term downtrend line. For DiS that's about 595 oz right now, for DiG about 10.2 oz.

YO! Nice Government Men! YO! Don't y'all care about the US dollar index? It's dropping like your glasses into the lake when they slip off your face fishing. Today the dollar index lost 8 more basis points (0.11%) to 79.88, and sits below that support line that stretches back to late 2011. This does not look promising. If it falls, nothing stands underneath to catch the buck except, oh, 78, or 74.75.

The mighty euro, Franken-currency extraordinaire, rose 0.19% today to $1.3786, pushing hard for the downtrend line at $1.3800 +. I know all those German manufacturers are just thrilled to see the rising euro price their exports out of the market against the US and Japan.

Yen continued a two day winning streak -- two day? -- rising 0.40% to 97.65 cents/Y100. It might have caught, but must rise a long way to confirm that change of heart.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

The Gold Price Moved Up $27.10 Closing on the Comex at $1,262.40

Gold Price Close Today : 1262.40
Change : 27.10 or 2.19%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.256
Change : 0.612 or 3.12%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.322
Change : -0.562 or -0.89%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01605
Change : 0.000143 or 0.90%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1387.80
Change : 20.20 or 1.48%

Palladium Price Close Today : 738.00
Change : 3.50 or 0.48%

S&P 500 : 1,802.62
Change : -5.75 or -0.32%

Dow In GOLD$ : $261.56
Change : $ (6.61) or -2.47%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.653
Change : -0.320 or -2.47%

Dow in SILVER oz : 788.56
Change : -27.23 or -3.34%

Dow Industrial : 15,973.13
Change : -52.40 or -0.33%

US Dollar Index : 79.979
Change : -0.177 or -0.22%

Well, the silver and GOLD PRICE did it today. About 6:00 a.m. Eastern time while all y'all were still snugged up tight in bed, silver broke through 2000c and the gold price through $1,245. Time an old slugabed like me got to work, the gold price was already at $1260 and silver at 2030c.

The GOLD PRICE ended the day on Comex at $1,262.40, up $27.10 or 2.2%. The SILVER PRICE finished up 61.2 cents (3.1%) at 2025.6c. Both jumped clean through resistance at $1,250 and 2000c. Better yet, both jumped o'er their 20 DMAs ($1,251 and 1999c).

Folks, it don't get much stouter than this. Silver and gold prices fought off an attack at new lows for the move last week, reversed upward, and advanced steadily. MACD flashed a buy signal on Friday, and the Rate of Change for both has climbed sharply since 1 December and today entered POSITIVE territory.

What's next? (Moneychanger, are you NEVER satisfied?) No, I want to see both close above their last highs ($1,295 and well, silver did that today) and their 50 DMAs (2115c and $1,288.80).

What's more, I want both to close once again ABOVE that uptrend line from the June Low, for silver tomorrow 2160c and for gold $1,288. Wait -- did I mention that volume is rising with price, to confirm the price move? No, I didn't. Well, there 'tis.

Friends, nothing in this life is sure except that we will all exit this world feet first, but this is the best price action I've seen in gold and silver for several months.

I bought some more today.

Stocks must have disappointed their cheerleaders. Every index fell. Dow lost 52.4 (0.33%) to 15,973.13 and punched into but closed not beneath its 20 DMA (15,966). S&P500 gave back 5.75 (0.32%) and ended at 1,808.62. Pattern in both indices is the same, a pair of descending tops. Not a good sign, unless they can turn around on the morrow and climb past the previous high. Otherwise, look out below.

All this showed far more clearly in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver, which both tumbled sharply. Dow in Gold ended at 12.66 oz (G$261.70 gold dollars), down 2.03% AND below the 20 DMA at 12.77 oz. That crossing under the 20 DMA confirms what looked like a head and shoulders top.

Dow in Silver did likewise. Closed down 3.21% at 782.61 oz and below the 20 DMA at 799.23.

Mercy, y'all, look at this! If this pattern completes, it will be double tops in both the DiG and DiS, June and December, and 'twill signal that silver and gold have turned up against stocks. Hold on -- we need further confirmation, like closes below the 50 DMA. MACD has already flashed sell signals for both indicators, and 12 day Rate of Change went negative in both. All right!

US DOLLAR INDEX broke 80 today. Lost 20 basis points or 0.25% to close at 79.94. There is what I take to be the neckline of a head and shoulders that started forming in 2011 that now hits the US dollar index about 79. It may be some other pattern, but since late 2011 a line from 78.10 in Spring 2013 through about 80 today has stopped every decline. Well, every decline except that dip down to 79.06 in October. Now the US Dollar Index, after a climb, is right back at that 80 support. Maybe if it falls through this time it will just keep on falling to 74.75, or 72.70? Little but air stands beneath it now.

The Euro rose 0.17% to $1.3761, clearly on its way to $1.3825 or higher. It's the battle of the junk currencies for the title, "Sorriest Fiat Money On The Planet."

Japanese yen rose 0.43% to 97.26 cents/Y100. If it breaks the last low at 96.41, who knows where it might perch?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Monday, December 09, 2013

The Gold Price Gained $5 to Close at $1,235.30

Gold Price Close Today : 1235.30
Change : 5.00 or 0.41%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.644
Change : 0.179 or 0.92%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.884
Change : -0.321 or -0.51%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01590
Change : 0.000081 or 0.51%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1367.60
Change : 12.20 or 0.90%

Palladium Price Close Today : 734.50
Change : 0.95 or 0.13%

S&P 500 : 1,808.37
Change : 3.28 or 0.18%

Dow In GOLD$ : $268.17
Change : $ -1.00 or -0.37%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.973
Change : -0.048 or -0.37%

Dow in SILVER oz : 815.80
Change : -7.23 or -0.88%

Dow Industrial : 16,025.53
Change : 5.33 or 0.03%

US Dollar Index : 80.140
Change : -0.130 or -0.16%

Y'all, silver and GOLD PRICES may have turned up.

Today the GOLD PRICE gained $5 to close Comex at $1,235.30 The SILVER PRICE added 17.9 cents to 1964.4. Highs came at $1,242.60 and 1998c, lows at 1943c and $1,224.60.

Let me just tick these positives off for y'all:

1. Both silver and gold price flashed MACD buy signals on Friday. Yes, Friday.

2. Rate of Change for both stands a smidgen below turning positive (-.19% for gold and -.1% for silver).

3. Wednesday's low for both was confirmed by a double (gold) or higher (silver) bottom.

4. Both have drawn near their 20 DMAS (2004c and gold's $1,252).

5. Both may be forming an upside down head and shoulders pattern, with last week tracing out the head.

Of course, all that will mean less than nothing if confirmations don't come. First confirmation comes when they cross those 20 DMA. Next when they climb above the last peaks 2309c and $1,295.

I wish I could explain it. When I write it out it looks too thin. Maybe I'm leaving out the bounce back last Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and today. All that showed stubborn strength, being knocked down and getting right back up. Then both climbed vigorously in the aftermarket today. Something's brewing.

Maybe we get nothing more than another annoying dead cat rally, but I bought a little on Friday, just in case, and more today.

I could hardly have called stocks more wrongly last Thursday when I was expecting them to continue dropping. Instead, the Dow rose nearly 200 points on Friday.

Well, maybe that ends the little correction. Dow rose 5.33 (0.03%) today to 16,025.53 while the S&P500 gained 3.28 (0.18%) for a new high close -- not a new intraday high, but a new high close by 1.15 points.

This leaves both the Dow and the S&P500 charts looking about the same, with a lower high from Friday's and today's trading. Both have closed above their 20 DMAs, but the MACD hasn't yet flashed a buy signal. In the last 18 months, though, that cross above the 20 DMA has been a reliable mark of an upward reversal.

Yet meanwhile the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver haven't been able to rise above the 2 December highs (13.138 and 836.19 oz). They both dropped again today, basis End of Day. Dow in Silver lost 1.48% to end 808.55 oz. Rate of change is near zero, but most of all, the MACD has flashed a SELL signal. Rate of change is pointing down and near zero.

Dow in Gold lost 0.75% to end at 12.93 oz (G$267.29 gold dollars). Has formed a widening top, and the MACD klaxoned SELL last week. ROC draweth nigh to zero and lower.

Both indicators need to fall through their 20 Day Moving Averages, now 12.75 oz and 797.09 oz, to confirm a trend reversal. Both show a toppy formation, sort of a tiny Head and Shoulders, but both need that confirmation.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is sawing and sawing on that limb it's sitting on. Closed today at 80.14, down 13 basis points (0.16%) from Friday and racing for support at 80, which it appears competent to crash. Below the 50 and 20 and 200 DMAs, MACD pointing down, it's a basket case.

The Euro is taking advantage of the Dollar's woes to climb. Rose 0.24% today with a tiny gap up. Evidently targeting 1.3825, where the big resistance begins.

The yen wants none of that climbing. It dropped 0.33% to 96.85 cents/Y100, a new low for the move and right near the May low at 96.41. Closing below that would suggest the Japanese Nice Government Men are targeting some deep number -- 90 or even 80, but at a minimum 90. Crazy.

But what bothers me is WHY the dollar is dropping? Lo, I am aware that many are calling for a dollar rally, but I can't see it on the chart. I see a breakdown in September that suggests a drop to 73. However, I can't imagine how the Europeans could live with that, as it would dry up their export markets like Death Valley in a drought.

Question is whether the Fed is pushing the dollar down or the market.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.