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Friday, January 31, 2014

Gold Lost $2.10 Today to Close at $1,240.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1,240.10
Gold Price Close 24-Jan-14 : 1,264.50
Change : -24.40 or -1.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.105
Silver Price Close 24-Jan-14 : 19.473
Change : -36.80 or -1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.910
Gold Silver Ratio 24-Jan-14 : 64.936
Change : -0.026 or 0.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01541
Silver Gold Ratio 24-Jan-14 : 0.01540
Change : 0.00001 or 0.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 261.69
Dow in Gold Dollars 24-Jan-14 : $ 260.29
Change : 1.40 or 0.5%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.659
Dow in Gold Ounces 24-Jan-14 : 12.592
Change : 0.07 or 0.5%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 821.71
Dow in Silver Ounces 24-Jan-14 : 817.66
Change : 4.06 or 0.5%

Dow Industrial : 15,698.85
Dow Industrial 24-Jan-14 : 15,922.27
Change : -223.42 or -1.4%

S&P 500 : 1,782.59
S&P 500 24-Jan-14 : 1,794.23
Change : -11.64 or -0.6%

US Dollar Index : 81.370
US Dollar Index 24-Jan-14 : 80.455
Change : 0.92 or 1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,374.10
Platinum Price Close 24-Jan-14 : 1,427.10
Change : -53.00 or -3.7%

Palladium Price Close Today : 703.00
Palladium Price Close 24-Jan-14 : 733.90
Change : -30.90 or -4.2%

The GOLD PRICE lost $2.10 today to close at $1,240.10. Silver lost 6/10 cent to end on Comex at 1910.5c.

The gold price closed lower this week than last, breaking a five week winning streak. Also stopped short of the 20 week moving average. Best I can say is that on the daily chart gold remains above its 50 DMA ($1,235.41). Frankly, I can't parse this divergence between silver and GOLD PRICES. Which is right, the stronger gold price or the weaker silver price? Gold's MACD is about to flash a sell signal, so maybe gold will catch up with silver.

The SILVER PRICE also closed lower on a weekly basis, down three of the last six weeks, and the last two weeks running. Today's silver low came at 1907c, and really doesn't tell us much after yesterday's close. Any break below 1897c will carry silver lower. Next week gold needs to hold on above $1,210.00. Platinum and palladium are tying an anchor around gold's ankles so they need to turn up, too, before gold can rally.

Looking at the weekly scorecard forces me to ask whether the stock market's dive means that the peak we have seen is the final one, marking a 300 year top. I'm thinking. I'll let y'all know. Picture in precious metals has not yet cleared. US dollar index has resumed rising.

Let's talk hard and fast today. Stocks bounce yesterday was probably engineered by the NGM, since they lost yesterday's gains and then some today. Milestone comes when the Dow crosses below its 200 DMA (15,466) -- and stays there. Same marker for the S&P500 is 1706.44.

Today the Dow scraped off another 149.76 (0.94%) to end at 15,698.85. S&P500 gave back 11.6 (0.65%) to 1,782.59.

Both silver and gold prices fell today but stocks fell more, pulling down the Dow measured in metals. Dow in gold ended the day at 12.66 oz, down 0.67% Dow in silver lost 7.62 oz (0.92%) to 821.07%. Still above 20 and 50 DMA, reflecting silver's weakness against gold.

US dollar index jumped 53 basis points yesterday, and another 18 (0.22%) to 81.37 today. This brings it back to the 200 DMA at 81.51. Indicators have turned up, so maybe the dollar can breach that 200 DMA this time.

Euro looks puking sick. Gapped down two days running, lost another 0.49% today to $1.3489. Yen resumed its rise, up 0.68% to 98.01 cents/Y100.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, January 30, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Down 1.64 Percent at $1,242.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1,242.20
Change : -20.00 or -1.64%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.11
Change : -0.43 or -2.18%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.999
Change : 2.438 or 3.90%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.0154
Change : -0.0006 or -3.75%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,380.70
Change : -25.80 or -1.83%

Palladium Price Close Today : 706.65
Change : -4.30 or -0.60%

S&P 500 : 1,794.19
Change : 19.99 or 1.13%

Dow In GOLD$ : $263.74
Change : $ -2.46 or -0.92%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.76
Change : -0.12 or -0.92%

Dow in SILVER oz : 829.29
Change : 23.66 or 2.94%

Dow Industrial : 15,848.61
Change : 109.82 or 0.70%

US Dollar Index : 80.66
Change : 0.08 or 0.10%

Alas, today was not the day the GOLD PRICE burst the bonds of surly earth. Instead, it hit that downtrend line from the April 2013 high at $1,267.70 & fell back as low as $1,237.50. The GOLD PRICE shuttered the Comex $20 (1.64%) lighter at $1,242.20. Silver shucked 42.5 cents (2.18%) to 1911.1c. Today witnessed an 1897c low.

Gold's low took it to but not through its 50 DMA, and closed slightly below the uptrend line. This itself is not fatal, but the 12 day rate of changed went negative today, & the MACD might be rolling over downward.

No way to predict what will happen here. Gold has been very strong, so the 50 DMA which in past months has acted as a barrier to stopping it might now support it. Or we might see lower prices still. I am watching the $1,210 line as the shoulder line of what might be a upside-down head & shoulders. As long as that $1,210 line at the top of the shoulders remains intact, the pattern remains valid & presages an upside breakout.

The SILVER PRICE low at 1897c today shattered the little uptrend it had going, but stopped about where declines stopped through December at 1889c & 1910c. Remember the December intraday low came at 1872c, so that's silver's drop-dead line. MACD & RoC & RSI all point downward, I am sad to report.

Not sure why, but I really don't expect another waterfall out of silver & gold from here. Might be too big a natural born fool from Tennessee to see it coming.

Well, I reckon the question we all ought to ask ourselves is, How big a sucker are you? In a world where most everything is staged for propaganda purposes, financial & political & cultural, we also have to ask, Is it real, or Memorex?

Before I launch my boat upon the stormy sea of doped-up markets, I realized something spooky this morning as I was waking. On 22 & 23 January several stock market indices were making new all time highs. That was the day the Dow reiterated its non-confirmation by falling the second day in a row. On the 23rd its Niagara began.

Why is that spooky? Because the Dow topped at 11,722 on 22 January 2000, before the rest of the indices topped in March. And because there was a stock market high in 2000, again in 2007, and now, seven years later, in 2014, exactly two times seven years from the 2000 top.

Here's another, smaller spook. Silver & gold bottomed on 28 June 2013, then again on 31 December 2013, right nearly six months to the day or halfway around the year from each other.

But today the sun shone bright in Stockland again. Dow jumped up 109.82 (0.7%) to 15,848.61 & the S&P500, like a giant running its course, leapt 19.99 (1.13%) to 1,794.19.

The raw numbers sound good until you look at the charts, Dow managed to climb back to support it had broken through, but no more. S&P500 remains way below its 1,812.60 50 DMA, ready to drop through a long term uptrend line. Sure, both indices might catch here, but they need to rise above their 50 DMAs to do that (1,812.60 & 16,153.57).

Gold's tumble today floated the Dow in Gold up a little, 2.76% to 12.76 oz (G$263.77 gold dollars). As yet that amounts to nothing but a tiny countertrend move in a very long downtrend.

Dow in silver rose 3.72% to 828.64 oz, above its 20 and 50 DMAs (817.42 & 815.61). This is an iffier proposition, but needs to close above the 853.15 oz high on 31 December to disprove the downtrend.

US Dollar index, hideous spawn of central banking, rose today 53 basis points (0.66%) to 81.19. This takes it out of immediate danger of visiting the earth's magma core, but not much more. It is trying to turn up again to validate its sluggish uptrend. Did close above the 20 & 50 day moving averages, which at least turns momentum up.

Euro, hideous spawn of central banking & eurocratic bureaucratic tyranny, gapped down below all its moving averages, proving its downtrend once again. Plunged 0.79% to $1.3556. Hope the euro has packed its parachute.

Yen, hideous spawn of central banking & corporatism, fell back 0.49% to 97.21, but remains above its 20 & 50 DMAs & in an uptrend. Why, I can't imagine, since the Japanese Nice Government Men stand ready to stab anybody in the back who trusts a rising yen.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, January 29, 2014

The Gold Price Validated it's $1,250 Support Closing Up at $1,262.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1262.20
Change : 11.40 or 0.91%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.535
Change : 0.050 or 0.26%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.612
Change : 0.419 or 0.65%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01548
Change : -0.000101 or -0.65%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1406.40
Change : -1.30 or -0.09%

Palladium Price Close Today : 710.25
Change : -5.35 or -0.75%

S&P 500 : 1,774.20
Change : -18.30 or -1.02%

Dow In GOLD$ : $257.76
Change : $ (5.49) or -2.08%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.469
Change : -0.265 or -2.08%

Dow in SILVER oz : 805.67
Change : -11.81 or -1.44%

Dow Industrial : 15,738.79
Change : -189.77 or -1.19%

US Dollar Index : 80.660
Change : 0.078 or 0.10%

The GOLD PRICE was pushed up today. Comex closed up $11.40 (0.9%) at $1,262.20. Silver lagged badly, rising only 5 cents to 1953.3c.

Yesterday the gold price fell back to support at $1,250.80, and today rebounded like a trampoline champ. That validated $1,250 support. In the aftermarket gold has pushed through the $1,267.50 December high, but not enough to call it a breakout.

The GOLD PRICE is pounding at the door of that downtrend line from April, but pounding isn't breaking down. Strength shown so far whispers it will break through tomorrow, but if not, it can fall back as far as $1,210 without changing the outlook. All indicators I watch are pointing up, and I expect to see higher gold soon.

The SILVER PRICE since early December has formed a rising flat topped triangle with the base or top at about 2050c, and a slowly rising hypotenuse beginning at 1889c through 1910c through 1931c and now today at a 1945c low. This line was broken only once, by the plunge on 31 December 20 1872, but that was an intraday low and silver never closed below that hypotenuse.

Silver stands below its 20 and 50 DMAs (1984 and 1992). It has dithered two months trading sideways. Two days ago the MACD flashed a Sell.

This picture must clear, or threaten gold's performance. Related markets can disagree for a day or two, but past three it begins to look like a family argument where somebody's fixin' to take out a knife and go to cuttin'.

To confirm a rally, the gold price must close above $1,267.50 and silver must hop aboard and climb over 2050c. It's very rare that gold will stage a rally all on its own. Possible, but infrequent.

One thing about us nacheral born fools from Tennessee, I ain't crafty enough to lie when I'm caught out wrong and make out like I was saying the other thing all along. I'll just out and admit it, I was wrong. The scummy criminals at the Fed did taper after all. In the FOMC's statement today -- Bernanke's swan song -- the Fed said it would reduce its securities purchase by $10 bn total, knocking $5 bn of its present $40 bn monthly US Treasury bond buying and $5 bn from its $35 bn Mortgage Backed Securities purchases.

But the Fed also promised it would hold interest rates near zero until unemployment dipped below 6.5%, or 'till hell freezes over with Gatorade, whichever comes first (I snuck in that last part on my own. They didn't really say that). Here are the really gut-bustin' hilarious gems from the FOMC statement:

** the economy is improving.

** "The committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2% objective could pose risks to economic performance." (This is loony from the standpoint of protecting the dollar's purchasing power, which is why y'all don't understand it, because the Fed doesn't give 2 hoots and a holler about the dollar's purchasing power. That ain't their job. Their job is to keep all y'all BELIEVING they aim to protect the dollar. And it's genrlly working.)

** "The Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens." Translation: we are going to continue to create new money at the same rate as far as we can see into the future.

And how did the stock market take the news that the Fed is jerking the punch bowl? Not calmly. Dow plunged another 189.77 points (1.19%) to 15,738.79. Scorecard: Dow has lost 676.53 (4.1%) in the last seven trading days. S&P500 today peeled off 18.3 (1.02%) to perch on 1,774.20.

Clearly the Fed is playing "chicken" with the stock market.

Where doth that leave us? The Dow has crashed back below the upper channel line that it threw over (rose above) in November, and reached its last low (15,703.79 in December) matched with a September peak at $1,5709.58. If the Dow punctures this support, next obvious stopping point is the 200 DMA now at 15,454.71. No indicator gives a sign of an upturn yet. S&P500 looks no better.

Meanwhile the Dow in Gold is cascading over the rocks. Closed today down 2.5% at 12.42 oz (G$256.74 gold dollars). All moving averages are in downward alignment, and the next to be struck is the 200 at 11.76 (G$243.10).

Thanks to silver's recent lethargy, the Dow in Silver has not dropped as dramatically. Today it lost 2.18% to end at 798.92 oz, and stands below its 20 and 50 DMA (814.41 oz), and it's outside its upward trading channel. Gravity is calling.

Since the Fed pulled the plug on its stock support today, I reckon investor's appetite for risk has been trimmed. That showed up in rising bond prices/falling ten year T-note yield. It dropped 2.59% to 2.675%.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, January 28, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Down $12.60 at $1,250.80

Gold Price Close Today : 1250.80
Change : -12.60 or -1.00%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.483
Change : -0.288 or -1.46%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.200
Change : 0.298 or 0.47%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01558
Change : -0.000073 or -0.46%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1407.70
Change : -11.70 or -0.82%

Palladium Price Close Today : 715.60
Change : -6.05 or -0.84%

S&P 500 : 1,792.50
Change : 10.94 or 0.61%

Dow In GOLD$ : $263.25
Change : $ 4.11 or 1.59%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.735
Change : 0.199 or 1.59%

Dow in SILVER oz : 817.56
Change : 16.50 or 2.06%

Dow Industrial : 15,928.56
Change : 90.68 or 0.57%

US Dollar Index : 80.582
Change : 0.020 or 0.02%

Yesterday the GOLD PRICE closed Comex only 90 cents lower but in the aftermarket lost another $10. That showed up today at the Comex close, lower by $12.60 to $1,250.80, about 1% lower than yesterday. Yet as I said, most of that loss had already showed yesterday. Unlike recent months, gold did not follow through yesterday's weakness.

The GOLD PRICE hesitation here is easily explained: it is bumping against the downtrend line from April 2013. Thus Friday it couldn't get through the $1,267.50 December high, though it came so close. Nothing is out of order here, but the gold price might drop back to its 50 DMA at $1,238.04. Further drop would call its intentions into question. However, the Fed's mumblings tomorrow might derail gold for a while. Just no telling how the market will take their words.

The SILVER PRICE casts the only gloom over this brightening precious metals picture. It lost 28.8 cents (1.5%) today to end at 1948.3c. Remember that on Friday silver's weakness gainsaid gold's strength. Worse, platinum and palladium are falling, too. Copper has fallen back to its 200 DMA.

So the situation is unclear, and will remain so until the FOMC shoots tomorrow. My gut and the trends in place say, regardless what the Fed intones, stocks will continue lower and gold will keep climbing, even pulling silver up. Dow would have to beat 1,500 to change that outlook, and the gold price would have to drop below $1,210

Now if I wanted to put millions of people back to work in America, the very first thing I would do is-- raise wages 39%! Yes, socialist moronism now reigns supreme in Washington, where His Federal Highness, Bernard O'Bama, is decreeing today that all those federal government contractors now paying their minimum wage folks $7.25/hr must raise them to $10.10. This will prompt those employers to look at their payrolls, scratch their heads, and fire the lot of them, as they cannot afford to raise them 39%.

Thus Bernard, our first communist president, will manage to throw countless thousands out of work. Between him and the Fed, it's a job to figure out who is stupidest.

Speaking of the Fed, its long, twisted shadow hangs over markets this week because the FOMC has another meeting tomorrow. Chances are Yellow Janet will be terrified by the stock market waterfall cascading over the headlines and put The Mythical Taper in the dame class with the Easter Bunny, Sasquatch, and Santa Claus, announcing that money creation (and its floor under Wall Street) will continue on, world without end.

I have to leave early today, and am writing this just before the stock market closes, but I'll include closing prices below.

Stocks are in big trouble, although it's not clear yet whether this is merely a correction, or we have seen the ultimate top. For now, I'll opt for a severe correction into February, with the ultimate top later this year, subject to changing my mind at the drop of an index.

Stocks have been flashing all sorts of portents through January, mostly with the Dow refusing to join the party. Right now the Dow stands up 94.44 at 15,932.32, up 0.6% on the day, but in truth doing no more than a dead cat does when thrown from a three story building. The bounce signifyeth not life. S&P has managed to climb 10.93 (0.61%) to 1,792.49, but other indices are down slightly.

Stocks are in such trouble that it's a fair bet that whatever comes out of the FOMC meeting tomorrow, it will contain fat meat for stocks. Ergo, no taper.

Dow in Gold has fallen clean out of the trading channel and made half the journey from the 50 DMA (13.06 oz) to the 200 DMA (11.74 oz). DiG stands now at 12.73 oz (G$263.08 gold dollars). Dow in Silver hasn't been so rambunctious but at 817.75 oz has quite broken below its 50 DMA (812.76 oz).

US Dollar index has gone flat last two days, and is unlikely to move today, waiting for the Fed's Delphic Oracle to predict the future.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, January 24, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Higher for the Fifth Week in a Row at $1,264.50

Gold Price Close Today : 1,264.50
Gold Price Close 17-Jan-14 : 1,251.70
Change : 12.80 or 1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 19,473
Silver Price Close 17-Jan-14 : 20,267
Change : -79.40 or -3.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.936
Gold Silver Ratio 17-Jan-14 : 61.760
Change : 3.176 or 5.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01540
Silver Gold Ratio 17-Jan-14 : 0.01619
Change : -0.00079 or -4.9%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 260.29
Dow in Gold Dollars 17-Jan-14 : $ 271.81
Change : -11.52 or -4.2%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.592
Dow in Gold Ounces 17-Jan-14 : 13.149
Change : -0.56 or -4.2%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 817.66
Dow in Silver Ounces 17-Jan-14 : 812.09
Change : 5.57 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial : 15,922.27
Dow Industrial 17-Jan-14 : 16,458.56
Change : -536.29 or -3.3%

S&P 500 : 1,794.23
S&P 500 17-Jan-14 : 1,838.69
Change : -44.46 or -2.4%

US Dollar Index : 80.455
US Dollar Index 17-Jan-14 : 81.370
Change : -0.92 or -1.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,427.10
Platinum Price Close 17-Jan-14 : 1,452.60
Change : -25.50 or -1.8%

Palladium Price Close Today : 733.90
Palladium Price Close 17-Jan-14 : 747.65
Change : -13.75 or -1.8%

What confusion in silver and GOLD PRICES! Gold rose $1.90 to $1,264.50, pennies away from a breakout above the December high at $1,267.70. This makes the fifth week gold has closed higher, longest winning streak in a long time. Great, great, but what about silver, platinum, and palladium? The SILVER PRICE dropped 24.3 cents today to close Comex at 1947.3c. GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose to 64.048. Platinum dropped $34.6 and palladium $11.10. Why are they gainsaying gold?

All this leaves the market unsettled. Gold is leading a charge, and it's all alone. Not impossible, but unusual. Picture will clear next week. I know that's unsatisfactory, but can I say more than the charts say? My instinct says that silver and GOLD PRICES will keep rising, and that silver, platinum, and palladium were pulled down by stocks today (historically silver's performance against gold is correlated closely to stocks).

What is clear? Gold is tugging at the leash to run upward, stocks have found the trapdoor in the market and fallen through. It is possible that we have seen the ultimate high for stocks, but more likely is an extended correction then one more wild rise to the ultimate high that marks the top of a 300 year cycle.

More the Moneychanger sayeth not.

I must leave early today, so bear in mind these are 3:30 Eastern time prices, not closes for stocks or the dollar index, but final settlement prices for metals.

Today was tossed by bewildering cross currents. Stocks suffered a bloody defeat, the dollar at least didn't fall onto its face, gold stands right at the line of confirming a breakout, but silver, platinum, and palladium all refused to confirm that strength. What gives?

'Twould be tough to overstate today's disaster in stocks. S&P and Dow both sliced clean through their 50 DMA (1,813 and 16,156) like a sharp knife through cold lard, and the Dow ended (as of 3:30 eastern) right at the channel line it broke above in November. Both indices show a two day waterfall, clearly panic selling. This will drop further and last longer.

US Dollar index went flat, losing only 5.5 basis points after yesterday's plunge. Being a fiat currency and having no value in itself but the Hot Potato value of passing it along to another victim, it could just as well break down thoroughly here as rally. It's already below its 50 DMA. Needs to stay above 79.50 to survive.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, January 23, 2014

Encouraging Day for the Gold Price Closing Up 1.9 Percent at $1,262.60

Gold Price Close Today : 1262.60
Change : 23.60 or 1.90%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.981
Change : 0.172 or 0.87%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 63.190
Change : 0.643 or 1.03%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01583
Change : -0.000163 or -1.02%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1461.70
Change : 0.80 or 0.05%

Palladium Price Close Today : 745.00
Change : -2.95 or -0.39%

S&P 500 : 1,844.86
Change : 1.06 or 0.06%

Dow In GOLD$ : $265.19
Change : $ -7.99 or -2.92%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.829
Change : -0.386 or -2.92%

Dow in SILVER oz : 810.64
Change : -15.92 or -1.93%

Dow Industrial : 16,197.35
Change : -175.99 or -1.07%

US Dollar Index : 80.500
Change : -0.780 or -0.96%

The GOLD PRICE closed Comex $23.6 (1.9%) higher at $1,262.60. This is slightly higher than where it faded ($1,262) day before yesterday. Today's move gainsays and negates the key reversal of the last two days, and ALMOST takes gold above its December $1,267.50 high. It also carries it to the top of its Bollinger Band, so it needs to hit the gas here or fall back. Today's show suggests it will hit the gas and accelerate its rally.

The SILVER PRICE had a weird day. It hit 2031 cents at the high, but settled Comex at only 1998.1, up 0.8% or 17.2 cents. Makes little sense with gold so strong. However, it places silver back above its 20 (1993c) and 50 (1994c) DMAs, turns momentum up, and leaves me generally felling warm and fuzzy.

Nevertheless, silver must cross 2050c or it's all just warm fuzzies amounting to nothing but . . . warm fuzzies. Them you can't take to the bank.

To prove a rally, ideally the GOLD PRICE will close well above $1,267 tomorrow and silver above 2050c. Not so ideally, to maintain its rally gold needs to close above $1,262. Any close above $1,251.70 gives it five higher weeks in a row.

There's more, but I don't want to overload y'all. In the face of a stock market puking it its wastebasket the gold stock indices rose smartly. XAU up 2.48%, GDX up 2.73%, HUI up 2.7%. Breakout for the HUI above its downtrend line from August.

Very encouraging day for silver and gold prices. Not so hot for stocks and the loathsome dollar.

Lots of surprises today. Whether bad or good depends on what you own.

Stocks finally made good on the Dow's nagging refusal to confirm the other indices. Dow fell like your car keys sinking down a well when you bent over to look at your reflection and they slipped out of your shirt pocket. Sliced into its 50 DMA (16,153) but ended down only 175.99 (1.07%) at 16,197.35. All other indices tumbled, too. S&P500 lost 16.4 (0.89%) to 1,828.46. That took the S&P500 way below its 20 DMA at 1,838, and turns momentum gravityward for stocks.

I'm not one to say "I told y'all so" unless severely provoked, and today one does the job. I believe I told y'all back on the 10th that the Dow's MACD had flashed a sell signal. With those lower tops that warned "Trouble coming!"

Today's stock dive sent the Dow in Metals down, down. and gave the breakdown I've been looking for. Dow in Gold ended at 12.81 oz (G$264.81 gold dollars), down 3.24%, below the 13.05 oz 50 DMA and punching through the lower channel line.

Silver was lazier than gold today, so the Dow in Silver, although it lost 2.14% to 809.67 oz, only barely broke its 50 DMA (810.73) and didn't quite fall out of the channel.

Big surprise (for me) today was the rotten performance of the loathsome US dollar index. Lost 78 basis points (0.96%) to 80.51, undoing two week's work and closing below its 20 and 50 DMA. Tripped by good European economic statistics. Triggered an MACD sell signal. Euro gapped up 1.1% to $1.3694, closing back within the channel it had fallen out of and above its 50 and 20 DMAs. Go figure. Yen jumped too, up to the 50 DMA by a long step. Uptrend now established.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, January 22, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $3.30 Closing Today at $1,239

Gold Price Close Today : 1,239.00
Change : -3.30 or -0.27%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.81
Change : -0.03 or -0.15%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.547
Change : -0.075 or -0.12%

Silver & GOLD PRICES closed lower, confirming a key reversal & calling for lower prices. Silver dropped 2.9 cents to 1980.9c and gold lost $3.30 to $1,239.00.

The GOLD PRICE hit the neckline of its little upside-down head & shoulders yesterday but closed lower, then closed lower today. Shoulder line of that inverted H&S is about $1,212, so gold must contain any retreat there. Lower close tomorrow clinches a re-visit to $1,220 at least.

The SILVER PRICE closed lower today, too, also confirming a key reversal. What might contain it? 1940 cents, where there's strong support? 1930 cents, ditto? If those yield, then look for another trip below 1900.

For the second day running, all stock indices but the Dow rose while the Dow fell -- a striking contradiction & non-confirmation.

Dow gave back 41.1 (0.25%) to 16,373.34, markedly below its 20 DMA (16,434). This stands against a backdrop of a downtrend (series of lower highs and lower lows), matched by other indicators pointing down. Ignore that at your own peril.

Meanwhile the S&P500 doesn't look much healthier, despite its 1.06 (0.06%) rise today to 1,844.86. It still floats above its 20 DMA (1,838), without making clear whether this is a consolidation or continuation pattern.

Stocks are in that position were your breath checks when you look at the chart. Both indices need to close above recent highs to turn solidly up.

Neither Dow/Metal indicator moved much today. Dow in gold ended at 13.24 oz (G$273.69). Dow in silver added 0.1% to 827.35 oz, and is dancing on the 20 DMA.

I take away the impression that stocks are a market under pressure, strong from both sides. Whichever side gives up first will push the market in his direction.

Loathsome, despicable fiat currencies did nothing remarkable today. US dollar index inched up 6 basis points to 81.29. Still going nowhere in an uptrend. Euro lost 0.13% to $1,3545, pausing in mid-air on its way to $1.3300. Japanese yen nudged down 0.28% to 95.66 cents/Y100, rapidly going sideways & nowhere.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, January 21, 2014

The Gold Price Remained Above it's 50 Day Moving Average Closing at $1,242.30

Gold Price Close Today : 1242.30
Change : -9.40 or -0.75%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.838
Change : -0.429 or -2.12%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.622
Change : 0.862 or 1.40%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01597
Change : -0.000223 or -1.38%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1452.00
Change : -0.60 or -0.04%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.15
Change : -0.50 or -0.07%

S&P 500 : 1,843.80
Change : 5.10 or 0.28%

Dow In GOLD$ : $273.14
Change : $ 1.32 or 0.49%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.213
Change : 0.064 or 0.49%

Dow in SILVER oz : 827.42
Change : 15.34 or 1.89%

Dow Industrial : 16,414.44
Change : -44.12 or -0.27%

US Dollar Index : 81.240
Change : -0.140 or -0.17%

Same old tricks attacked the gold market today after Friday's exuberant close. A little after New York opened somebody slammed it with sales, driving the GOLD PRICE from $1,246 to $1,237 in five minutes. It found a foothold and climbed above $1,240 by noon-thirty, but flattened out the rest of the day. High came at $1,262 in overnight trading, low at $1,235.40. Comex closed down $9.40 (0.75%) at $1,242.30.

What's encouraging about that? The GOLD PRICE remained above the 50 DMA ($1240.38). What's discouraging? It made a new high for the move, but closed lower for the day, first half of a key reversal. Must close higher tomorrow or probe lower prices again.

Oh, silver! Plunged 42.9 cents (2.1%) today to 1983.8c. Range was 2043c to 1966c, and silver has fallen right back into the same old trading range without escaping through 2050c. Worse, it fell through the 50 DMA (2000c) and the 20 DMA (1988c) and through the uptrend line.

Be patient. The SILVER PRICE must hold above 1950c here. Gold must hold $1,210. Nobody is going anywhere until gold rises above $1,267.70, the December low.

Markets sprang back into action today, but they blew an uncertain trumpet. Bewilderment reigns.

Stock indices all rose today -- except the senior Dow Jones Industrial average, which fell 0.27% or 44.12 points to 16,414.44. S&P500 rose by about the same amount, up 0.28% (5.1 points) to 1,843.80.

Dow's fall looks nastier because it rose to a new high for the move (not a new all-time high) then fell off to close lower, and below the 20 DMA (16,426.41). That's the first half of a key reversal, and if followed by a lower close tomorrow semaphores immediately lower prices.

S&P500's trading day looks much the same, cutting into but not closing below its 20 DMA, but it closed higher than Friday. None of this looks happy to me. Certainly stocks have not yet peaked, but they are blowing hot and cold out of both sides of the mouth. As with bankers and girlfriends, this is not a sign of future felicity.

Silver and gold gainsaid each other today, which left the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver at odds, too. Dow in Gold rose a little 0.78% to 13.23 oz (G$273.49 gold dollars). It treadeth still below the 20 DMA and along the cliff edge of the trading channel and 50 DMA (13.01oz/G$268.94). A single misstep sends it plunging into the abyss.

Dow in silver rose 2% to 826.51 oz, touching the 20 DMA at 826.47. Remains near the bottom channel line and close to the 50 DMA (807.05 oz). Break through those 50 DMAs would rev up downward momentum, sort of like tying concrete blocks to somebody's feet before pushing him out of an airplane.

The festering US dollar index keeps trending up, sort of, but three steps forward and two back. Today it reached for the 200 DMA (81.57), made a high at 81.53, then fell back and closed 14 basis points (0.17%) lower than Friday. Headed up, but torturing its friends along the way. To your everlasting surprise, I beg to report that I am not among those friends.

Among the other loathsome, immoral, and corrupt fiat currencies used to decapitalize their captive economies, the Euro rose 0.16% to $1.3562, but this is like shaving a pig. Time the shave is done, he's still a pig. Euro is done broke down and beat up, and today's bounce weigheth no more than styrofoam chips in a windstorm.

Yen remains above its 20 DMA (95.70) but unenthusiastic. Rose 0.07% today to 95.93 cents/Y100. Indicators say it has turned up, yet the chart pelaseth not the eye, nor showeth any strength.

Ten year treasury yield is dancing with its 50 DMA (2.843) in a correction. Lost 0.07% to 2.825%. May head lower in the immediate future, but the 30 year trend in bonds turned up this summer. Bigger changes coming here, no matter how slowly they unfold. Higher rates will bring more severe migraines to Janet and the rest of the international central bank criminals.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, January 20, 2014

The Gold Price Closed at $1,251.90

Gold Price Close Today : 1,251.90
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.30
Change : 0.00  or 0.00%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.66
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, January 17, 2014

The Gold Price Flew Up $11.70 to End the Week at $1,251.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1,251.70
Gold Price Close 10-Jan-14 : 1,246.70
Change : 5.00 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.267
Silver Price Close 10-Jan-14 : 20.201
Change : 0.066 or 0.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.760
Gold Silver Ratio 10-Jan-14 : 61.715
Change : 0.046 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01619
Silver Gold Ratio 10-Jan-14 : 0.01620
Change : -0.00001 or -0.1%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 271.81
Dow in Gold Dollars 10-Jan-14 : $ 272.55
Change : -0.73 or -0.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.149
Dow in Gold Ounces 10-Jan-14 : 13.184
Change : -0.04 or -0.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 812.09
Dow in Silver Ounces 10-Jan-14 : 813.68
Change : -1.59 or -0.2%

Dow Industrial : 16,458.56
Dow Industrial 10-Jan-14 : 16,437.05
Change : 21.51 or 0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,838.69
S&P 500 10-Jan-14 : 1,842.37
Change : -3.68 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 81.370
US Dollar Index 10-Jan-14 : 80.750
Change : 0.62 or 0.8%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,452.60
Platinum Price Close 10-Jan-14 : 1,434.70
Change : 17.90 or 1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.65
Palladium Price Close 10-Jan-14 : 745.15
Change : 2.50 or 0.3%

The GOLD PRICE flew up $11.70 to end at $1,251.70. Silver today mounted 24.2 cents to end at 2026.7 cents.

Ahh, the positives! Gold's fourth weekly higher close. The gold price above the 50 DMA ($1,241.86). Gold at the neckline for what promises to be an upside down head and shoulders. Gold within shooting distance of the December $1,267.50 high. Gold, with a positive MACD in positive alignment, a positive RSI, positive full stochastics, and positive rate of change. All I could ask more is gold above $1,550 -- but wait. Be patient.

Meanwhile the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which falls during gold and silver rallies, has been inching downward since Mid December. Today it closed below its 50 DMA and right at the 20 and 200 DMAs, trying to fall out of bed.

Wait, wait, wait! Did I neglect to mention that all three gold stock indices today burst their bonds and soared skyward? Yea, the HUI, GDX, and XAU in tandem.

Now silver. the SILVER PRICE, up three of the last four weeks. On the weekly chart dancing with its downtrend line from 2011 [sic]. On the daily chart in an uptrend from the December low at 1872c. Next barrier is 2050 cents to break out of this congestion that has reigned below that number since mid-November. Then silver must o'erleap 2100c. Yet what progress already! It stands above its 20 and 50 DMAs (1985c and 2004dc). I don't want to bore y'all like some proud papa with pictures of a new baby, so I won't list all the positive indicators. There are lots of 'em.

The silver and GOLD PRICE picture continues to improve steadily. And all this unashamed progress today came in the teeth of a boldly stronger dollar. I have been buying little by little since the lows, and will buy more when silver crosses 2100c and gold crosses $1,267.50.

Only fly in this ointment is physical gold coin premiums, which are barely flabby. Not bad, just a mite soft. Silver premiums are holding up well.

All this is the very best set-up we have seen in a year, but must be confirmed by higher prices and continued upward progress.

Well, this IS interesting. This was a down week for the S&P500 but not for the Dow. It was the fourth UP week in a row for gold, and 3 out of 4 for silver. White metals rose this week, too, while the dollar finally made up its mind to climb.

Stocks remain bewildered and squabbling with each other. All indices but the Dow fell today (the "Invisible Hand" of the NGM, painting the tape with the most widely followed index? Real or Memorex?). Dow inched up 41.55 (0.25%) to 16,458.56 but the S&P500 said "No" and stumbled 7.2 (0.4%) to 1,838.69.

Maybe I'm prejudiced -- everybody is -- but this looks weak. Then add a falling Relative Strength Index and the MACD on a sell signal. Rate of change is below zero (negative) for both indices. All these witness that momentum -- the line of least resistance -- is down. Still, I will admit this remains somewhat equivocal. Stocks might jump Monday to new highs, nixing my interpretation. But both are poised to fall through their 20 DMAs, and with all those other negatives weighing them down, I expect Monday to be a rough day for stock bulls.

I watch the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver because sometimes turns in these precede outright turns in gold or silver, or coincide and confirm. Both these indicators promise gloom for stock investors.

Dow in Gold has moved from the high side of its trading channel at 13.80 oz (G$285.27 gold dollars), below its 20 DMA, and to the low side of its trading channel. Today's 13.13 oz (G$271.42) close hangs close above the channel's bottom boundary and the 50 DMA at 12.99 oz (G$268.53). All indicators point toward the earth's magma core.

Dow in Silver presents a like picture. Dropped today 0.86% to 810.37 oz, hanging barely above the 50 DMA at 804.97.

The goofy, sorry US DOLLAR INDEX finally came out swinging today. It scampered up 36 basis points (0.44%) to end at 81.37, highest close since November. 200 DMA lieth near above at 81.58. When it punches through that, 'twill run for 83.

The perky dollar hit the euro like a cat-o-nine-tails, flogging it out of the trading channel and down below its 50 DMA ($1.3613. Closed down 0.57% at $1.3540. First target is about $1.3341, the 200 DMA.

Japanese yen kept its head timidly low today, rising 0.05% -- if that can be called a "rise" -- to 95.86 cents per 100 yen. It has been thoroughly rebuked and chastened for its audacious rise last week.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, January 16, 2014

The Gold Price Chiseled Out a $1.90 Gain Closing on the Comex at $1,240

Gold Price Close Today : 1240.00
Change : 1.90 or 0.15%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.025
Change : -0.078 or -0.39%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.923
Change : 0.335 or 0.54%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01615
Change : -0.000088 or -0.54%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1430.00
Change : 2.90 or 0.20%

Palladium Price Close Today : 743.00
Change : -0.10 or -0.01%

S&P 500 : 1,845.89
Change : -7.49 or -0.40%

Dow In GOLD$ : $273.68
Change : $ -1.50 or -0.55%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.240
Change : -0.073 or -0.55%

Dow in SILVER oz : 819.83
Change : -0.05 or -0.01%

Dow Industrial : 16,417.01
Change : -64.93 or -0.39%

US Dollar Index : 80.170
Change : -0.330 or -0.41%

Metals gainsaid each other today, silver down, the GOLD PRICE up. Gold chiseled out a tiny $1.90 gain to close at a portentous $1,240. Silver lost 7.8 cents for a Comex close at 2002.5 cents.

The RSI and MACD continue to smile on the gold price, but it is wrestling hard to climb through that fence at the 50 DMA (1,243.07) -- the fence holding it out of an uptrend.

The GOLD PRICE may be tracing out an upside-down head and shoulders with the shoulder's top about $1,210. To preserve that pattern, gold must not close below $1,210, and I'd prefer it not close below the 20 DMA at $1,222.13.

The SILVER PRICE clings tenaciously to the uptrend begun with the second December low at 1872c. Traded as low as 1997c today, and as high as 2025c, but held on above that uptrend line. Rests only cents below the 50 DMA at 2007c.

All this feels like one of those silent movie cliff-hangers, but I believe this time it will resolve in favor of silver and gold. A close tomorrow above last Friday's close at $1,246.70 would give gold a four week winning streak

Adolf Hitler wrote, "In the primitive simplicity of their minds [the broad masses of a nation] more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods. It would never come into their heads to fabricate colossal untruths, and they would not believe that others could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously." This is called the Big Lie Technique.

In the news today Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended quantitative easing, saying it has helped the economy and shows no immediate sign of creating a bubble in assets.

These two items above are not related. No, sir. No way. Unh-unh. Nope.

Sorry I didn't send a commentary yesterday, but I took a day off and spent it with my wife, Susan. As it turned out, nothing shook the earth yesterday.

Yesterday stocks were strong, and y'all might have been thinking I am a moron for talking about stocks trending down. You might be right, too, but this is a good time to discuss corrective B waves.

When markets correct, they often trace three waves, A-down, B-up, and C-down (of course this works for declining markets as well, just reversed). Trick is that the B-wave is often strong as a garlic milkshake, and will fool you into believing there's no correction at all. Sometimes the B-wave even makes a higher high than the last peak. Then the bottom falls out. This B-wave strength shows especially in markets that have been very strong.

So I look at stocks, I see that yesterday the S&P500 made a marginal new intraday high (1,850.84 against 31 December's 1,849.44). Dow didn't do that well. Today, both sank again, the Dow by 64.93 (0.39%) to 16,417.01 and the S&P500 by 7.49 (0.13%) to 1,845.89.

Now the small downtrend we've seen since 31 December may have amounted to only a short correction. Then again, it might be the start of something bigger. RSI still trendeth down, MACD still flasheth a sell signal, both indices are at their short term trend lines. Unless stocks can advance tomorrow, substantially and not marginally above the last highs, lower prices loom.

Uncertain trumpet calls blew from the Dow measured in metals today. Dow in silver rose 0.13% to 817.38 oz, bouncing up off the 50 DMA (803.15 oz). Dow in Gold turned down, 0.47% to 13.22 oz (G$273.28), but hasn't yet reached its 50 DMA (12.96 oz). Both have been trending down since 31 December, and both are about to break down out of their uptrending channel.

US DOLLAR INDEX rose strongly yesterday, but fell 11 basis points today (0.14%) to 81.01. Yet it has lifted off those 20 and 50 day moving averages (80.73 and 80.68). Uptrend vindicated.

The euro, stitched together Franken-currency, rose 0.1% to $1.3618, but playeth footsie still with its downtrend lines and 50 DMA. Will succumb to gravity. Yen rose 0.22% to 95.82 cents/Y100, above its 20 DMA and trying to trend upward.

Ten year treasury yield fell through its uptrend line five days ago, but has now bounced off its 50 DMA. Larger uptrend remains in force, glacial though it may be.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, January 15, 2014

The Gold Price Closed at $1,238.30 Down $7.10

Gold Price Close Today : 1238.30
Change : -7.10 or -0.57%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.13
Change : -0.15  or -0.73%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.5
Change : 0.10 or 0.16%

Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, January 14, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $5.70 to Close at $1,245.20

Gold Price Close Today : 1245.20
Change : -5.70 or -0.46%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.251
Change : -0.110 or -0.54%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.488
Change : 0.052 or 0.09%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01626
Change : -0.000014 or -0.08%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1431.90
Change : -10.00 or -0.69%

Palladium Price Close Today : 738.00
Change : -1.10 or -0.15%

S&P 500 : 1,838.88
Change : 19.68 or 1.08%

Dow In GOLD$ : $238.62
Change : $ 3.00 or 1.27%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.543
Change : 0.145 or 1.27%

Dow in SILVER oz : 709.79
Change : 9.53 or 1.36%

Dow Industrial : 14,373.86
Change : 115.92 or 0.81%

US Dollar Index : 80.720
Change : 0.120 or 0.15%

Silver and GOLD PRICES shaved a little off today, silver backing 11 cents to 2025.1c and the gold price dwindled $5.70 to $1,245.20.

The SILVER PRICE is acting more like a market tapping at a ceiling than one about to faint. Today silver made the first half of a key reversal with a new high for the move but a lower close. To verify that it must close lower tomorrow. However, today it fell back to the 50 DMA it broke through yesterday and bounced back. Remains above it. Next upward barrier is 2048c. Silver could fall all the way to 2000c without breaking this uptrend.

The GOLD PRICE is playing footsie with its 50 DMA, now at 1,246. There's a resistance/support band from about $1,245 to $1,267.50. Gold is merely slogging its way through that area. Wait, though! Gold did close near its short term uptrend line, so mustn't drop lower than $1,241.40 (today's low) tomorrow.

Silver and gold prices continue to look stronger than they have lo, these many months. I have bought some and will buy more as it rises, lots more on a close over $1,267.50.

Why did the libertarian cross the road? None of your business. Am I being detained? (That's the theory -- the performance is another thing.)

Markets rise and markets fall. Trick is to figure out whether either is lasting or a feint.

Stocks, for example, rose today amidst general jubilatin'. They might have pulled the trigger on that a mite early. Dow levitated 115.92 or 0.71% to 16,373.86 while the S&P500 waxed even fatter, boated by 19.68 or 1.08% to 1,838.88.

Only problem is, those rises changed not the chart. The Dow, it's true, rallied, but only to the downtrend line it busted yesterday on its way down. Nothing big, likely merely a kiss good-bye before diving deeper. SPX did the same. Jubilatin' is a mite previous.

Neither the Dow in Gold nor the Dow in Silver (despite both metals' dips) did more than jiggle upward, nervously bouncing off the 50 DMA. Such bounces are to be expected when any sort of support is hit, 50 DMA or channel line or support/resistance. Only the followthrough unfolds the meaning. DiG and DiS both point earthward.

Another example of parsing a fall: US dollar index rallied out through its downtrend channel line, fell back to its 50 and 20 DMAs, which coincided with the downtrend line, and today turned up again. Oh, only 12 basis points (0.15%) but the point is that the downtrend's support held. Dollar continues to lift its finger toward the sun, attempting to fly. It will likely succeed, but, like Icarus, come to a tragic end when its paper wings fall apart.

Euro balked at its 20 DMA. Edged up 0.7% to $1.3679. Trajectory is earthward. Yen flopped back today 1.1% to 95.99 cents per Y100, but only to fill the gap left behind yesterday. Has a double bottom at 94.83 and has broken through the downtrend lie and the 20 DMA. Headed higher, heaven only knoweth why.

More important is the 10 year treasury note yield, which in the last three days broke down through its 20 DMA and uptrend line. Now it has bounced off the 50 DMA which might contain the fall. Remember we are watching interest rates because they turned up in June and will eventually wreck the Fed's Zero Interest Rate Policy and the rest of its garden party.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, January 13, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Above it's 50 Day Moving Average at $1,250.90

Gold Price Close Today : 1250.90
Change : 4.20 or 0.34%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.361
Change : 0.160 or 0.79%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.436
Change : -0.279 or -0.45%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01628
Change : 0.000074 or 0.45%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1441.90
Change : 5.50 or 0.38%

Palladium Price Close Today : 739.10
Change : -1.80 or -0.24%

S&P 500 : 1,819.20
Change : -23.17 or -1.26%

Dow In GOLD$ : $268.67
Change : $ -3.87 or -1.42%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.997
Change : -0.187 or -1.42%

Dow in SILVER oz : 798.48
Change : -15.19 or -1.87%

Dow Industrial : 16,257.94
Change : -179.11 or -1.09%

US Dollar Index : 80.750
Change : -0.320 or -0.39%

The GOLD PRICE gained $4.20 to $1,250.90. Today's close not only places the gold price above the $1,250 resistance, but also and more importantly throws gold's leg over the 50 DMA (1,247.54). Silver remained above 2000c and gained another 16 cents to close Comex at 2036.1c

Something else I've been holding out on y'all, waiting to see it unfold. Gold has formed an upside down head and shoulders, but must stay above the shoulder line about $1,210.

Today's close remains equivocal. The real goal is that last high at $1,267.50, but surmounting the 50 DMA is a mighty boost.

The SILVER PRICE also closed above its 50 DMA (2017c) and has set its sights on resistance at 2100c. But first, there remain the December twin peaks at 2048c and 2044c. Silver might take those out tomorrow.

All other indicators point skyward. Best and biggest news cometh from the gold stock indices. GDX and HUI broke out above resistance. XAU closed plumb on resistance. Today all closed above their 50 DMAs.

Then there are the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Oh, tumble, stumble, bumble! Dow in Gold dropped 1.3% to 12.99 oz (G$268.53 gold $s), inches away from the 50 DMA which is running along the bottom trading channel line. Break through 12.88 would be headline big news.

Dow in silver plunged 2.18% to 797.54, virtually on top of its 797.25 50 DMA. Bottom channel line is only inches below. For both the DiG and DiS, all indicators point DOWN, the way we want.

Silver and GOLD PRICES need only add one last confirmation by climbing past those December lows. This is the best outlook for silver and gold I've seen in a year.

I reckon every dog has his day, or every day has its dogs, or all dogs have fleas, or something. Anyway, it began happening today.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe I've been warning y'all that the 31 December stock high marked a downtrend's beginning. Today starkly demonstrated that.

Dow unloaded 179.11 or 1.09% to 16,257.94. S&P500 chiseled off 23.17 (1.26%) to 1,819.20. It gets worse. Both closed below their 20 day moving averages (16,312 and 1,824), and both fractured their uptrend lines. Next target, next possible support, comes at the 50 DMA, 16,048.87 and 1,801. Well, the last highs at 16,174.51 and 1,813.55 might offer some support, but not much. More pain: MACD flashed a sell signal three days past, and the Rate of Change has turned negative. All that points like a flashing neon sign to lower prices.

Dollar index tumbled today, too, down 15 basis points or 0.19% to 80.60. Owch, that sneaked under the 50 dma (80.66) and 20 DMA. But here's a surprise, I have something good to say about the US dollar. Well, not really about the US dollar, I have nothing good to say about the World's Trashiest White Trash currency, but technically it broke out, rose, then has fallen back to the same downtrend line it broke on the way up. 20 and 50 DMAs happen to coincide about the same place. Other indicators aren't raging positive, but not really negative, either. Short of this is that I expect the dollar to continue the rally begun mid-December.

After hitting and breaking its uptrend line and 50 DMA five days ago, the Euro has rallied back to its 20 DMA, beginning to fill the gap left behind when it fell so badly as the year began. Might fill a bit more of that gap, but gravity's pull is taking over. Closed +0.02% at $1.3673.

Yen closed Friday above its 20 DMA and gapped up today, signaling some sort of rally. Whether it can beat the roadblock at the 50 DMA (97.93) remains to be seen. Yen is truly schizophrenic. Closed up 1.08% at 97.04 cents per Y100.

On 13 January 1607 the Bank of Genoa failed after the Spanish government announced national bankruptcy. Odd, doesn't Spain have some solvency problems today, too? As the French say, the more this changes, the more it stays the same thing.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, January 10, 2014

The Gold Price has an Established Uptrend and is Knocking on its 50 Day Moving Average at $1,238.40

Gold Price Close Today : 1,246.70
Gold Price Close 3-Jan-14 : 1,238.40
Change : 8.30 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.201
Silver Price Close 3-Jan-14 : 20.182
Change : 1.90 or 0.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.715
Gold Silver Ratio 3-Jan-14 : 61.362
Change : 0.353 or 0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01620
Silver Gold Ratio 3-Jan-14 : 0.01630
Change : 0.000 or -0.6%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 272.55
Dow in Gold Dollars 3-Jan-14 : $ 274.92
Change : -2.38 or -0.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 13.184
Dow in Gold Ounces 3-Jan-14 : 13.299
Change : -0.11 or -0.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 813.68
Dow in Silver Ounces 3-Jan-14 : 816.07
Change : -2.40 or -0.3%

Dow Industrial : 16,437.05
Dow Industrial 3-Jan-14 : 16,469.99
Change : -32.94 or -0.2%

S&P 500 : 1,842.37
S&P 500 3-Jan-14 : 1,831.37
Change : 11.00 or 0.6%

US Dollar Index : 80.750
US Dollar Index 3-Jan-14 : 81.040
Change : -0.29 or -0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,434.70
Platinum Price Close 3-Jan-14 : 1,411.50
Change : 23.20 or 1.6%

Palladium Price Close Today : 745.15
Palladium Price Close 3-Jan-14 : 730.30
Change : 14.85 or 2.0%

For the third week in a row silver and GOLD PRICES are stronger than stocks, and against a rising dollar too. The silver and gold price came back growling this week, stocks are confused, white metals are up, and the US dollar index fainted again today.

After being knocked back from the $1,250 level a few days ago, the gold price darted right back to the line today, rising $17.40(1.4%) to $1,246.70. From that position next week gold can challenge $1,250 and the most significant hurdle, $1,267.50, the December high. Gold closed mere dollars and cents from its 50 DMA at $1,249.

So take stock: The GOLD PRICE has an established uptrend, is above its 20 DMA and knocking on its 50 DMA. Momentum indicators are all strong, and related markets (gold equity indices) are firming or showing double bottoms. The Dow in Gold is falling, pointing to gold strength. And the weekly chart has risen three weeks running. All good.

Listen, y'all, bull markets always climb a wall of worry -- can it get through the next level? And the next? It's too early to call the December lows a double bottom with June, other than as an operating assumption, but if gold can o'erleap $1,267.50, then $1,361.80, the bottom has been seen.

The SILVER PRICE far outshone the gold price today, rising 2.7% (53.8 cents) to 2020.1. Yea, how comforting to see gold above the 2000 cent line! And silver cut into but did not cross over its 50 DMA (2021c), and closed right on it.

Silver shows a double bottom in December, which also pairs with the June lows. Internal indicators are all positive. What else do you want?

Well, a close above the last high at 2044c, then a quick rise through 2100c resistance, followed by a speedy rise above the October 2309.5c high. Is that plain enough?

Unless silver closes below 1940 cents and the gold price below $1,195, I am working on the assumption that they have put a bottom unto the long 2011-2013 correction.

Stock indices inauspiciously gainsaid one other today. Day started out with a very bad jobs report that drove stocks down. Oddly, investors discounted that and stocks ended higher. Normally when a market doesn't react to bad news, or moves up rather than falls, it signals great strength. But how does that explain the Dow, the senior, blue chip stock index, FALLING today when all the other indices rose? That disharmony augurs something not quite right underneath. Looking at the chart, the Dow remains in a downtrend begun on 31 December and is closing in on its 20 Dma (16,286) and its uptrend line. It lost 7.71 today (0.05%) to close 16,437.05. S&P500 added 4.24 (0.23%) to 1,842.37. Day's range cut into the uptrend line, but it closed above it. However, it still has painted a downtrend on the chart. 20 DMA stands below at 1,821.85.

Might as well tell y'all I expect great sorrow, weeping, and gnashing of teeth for stock investors this year. More I study charts, more I expect that.

Meanwhile the US dollar index, apparently in expectation of less "taper" (or is it "tapir") fell, as did the yield on the 10 year treasury note (bond prices rose). Let's see, stocks rose and bonds rose. I reckon I'm too country to cipher that out, but after a break out that's very weak performance.

However, a noteworthy difference shows in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver.

Both broke down through their 20 DMAS (825.85 oz and 13.36 oz), and through their short term uptrend lines. DiG lost 1.78% to 13.17 oz ($$275.25 gold dollars). DiS backed down 3.15% (whew!) to 815.33 oz. These indicators usually show the turn of metals against stocks very reliably, so we want them to lead or concur with silver and gold prices.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, January 09, 2014

The Gold Price Remains Above it's 20 Day Moving Average Moving Up to $1,229.30

Gold Price Close Today : 1229.30
Change : 4.00 or 0.33%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.663
Change : 0.145 or 0.74%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 62.518
Change : -0.260 or -0.41%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01600
Change : 0.000066 or 0.42%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1417.70
Change : 5.50 or 0.39%

Palladium Price Close Today : 735.60
Change : -1.80 or -0.24%

S&P 500 : 1,838.13
Change : 0.64 or 0.03%

Dow In GOLD$ : $276.53
Change : $ -2.05 or -0.74%

Dow in GOLD oz : 13.377
Change : -0.099 or -0.74%

Dow in SILVER oz : 836.33
Change : -9.71 or -1.15%

Dow Industrial : 16,444.76
Change : -68.20 or -0.41%

US Dollar Index : 81.070
Change : -0.110 or -0.14%

The GOLD PRICE augmented $4.00 to $1,229.30 and Silver gained 14.5 cents to 1966.3, but this provides no life altering information.

Both silver and GOLD PRICES have measly uptrends working, bottom line of which the SILVER PRICE bounced off today, but without reaching above its 20 DMA. Gold remains above its 20 DMA, but stuck between $1,222 and $1,232. So in the end we have two little uptrends working against a major downtrend, and gold and silver ain't talking.

When they don't talk, there's nothing I can say. But of course, being a natural born fool from Tennessee, I just have to open my mouth and prove it. Been thinking today about the Fed's "good luck" with its massive money creation. On a smaller scale US Fed governor Benjamin Strong did the same in the 1920s, fighting the post World War I repression. Oh, it worked for a while, and GM added steam by creating widespread consumer credit with GMAC. Although the agricultural depression continued through the 1920s, industry kept bubbling on more and more new money. Then one day in October 1929, it stopped working. Report card? Pushing off the recession with inflation managed to push off the recession a little BUT also turn it into the bloodiest depression in US history that only ended thanks to the artificial demand of World War II.

Yeah, buddy! That inflation works like a cham-peen! But what do I know? I ain't even no ekernomicks perfesser.

All the markets I watch are lethargic and as indecisive as a pretty girl at a ball being asked to dance by two ugly boys. Better to dance than not to dance, but with which ugly boy?

Some stock indices rose, some fell, all arguing about which way they would go. Dow fell 17.98 (0.11%) while the S&P500 rose 0.64 or 0.3% (I reckon you can call that "rising") to 1,838.13. The chart, as I said yesterday, isn't hard to parse: it's a downtrend. But is it the beginning of a big move, or merely a small breath-catcher? Maybe a bigger move, since the MACD for both indices flashed a sell signal today. Closes below the 20 DMA at 16,257 and 1,819 are needed to confirm that downtrend.

It catches my eye that the Dow in Silver and Dow in Gold dipped down slightly today. Dig dropped 0.25% to 13.40 oz (G$277.00 gold dollars) while the DiS ended at 841.81 oz, down 0.24%. Not much meaning there, but right direction.

The US dollar Index, the female black widow spider of currencies, disappointed its lovers today by dropping 11 basis points (0.14%). It remains in an uptrend, but seems in no hurry, rising one day then giving most of it back the next. Euro rose 0.21% back to the support line it fell through yesterday, but still beneath its moving averages. Amazing it could do that with that anchor tied to its feet and hanging over that cliff. Yen rose 0.1% to 95.44 cents/Y100. It's playing with the downtrend line, trying to make a decisive break when its guards aren't watching.

On 9 January 1990 my wife and I were arrested by the yankee government in a SWAT team raid. What was our alleged crime? Not filing income tax returns and conspiring to delay and defeat the IRS. According to most folks I was just a monetary nut and crank who believed gold and silver are money and paper is not, but according to one US attorneyess, I was the Most Dangerous Man in the Mid-South. And maybe she was right, given that telling the truth is always dangerous, both to those in and out of power. But those out of power have no SWAT teams with which to arrest their gainsayers.

Exactly one and one half years later, on 9 July 1991 of the 18 defendants who refused to plead guilty, all 18 of us were declared Not Guilty by a jury. To God alone be the glory!

You can read about this adventure at http://the-moneychanger.com/answers/the_most_dangerous_man_in_the_mid_south

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.