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Monday, March 31, 2014

The Gold Price Closed at $1,283.40 This is a Great Place to Buy

Gold Price Close Today : 1283.40
Change : -10.40 or -0.80%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.734
Change : -0.038 or -0.19%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.035
Change : -0.401 or -0.61%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01538
Change : 0.000094 or 0.62%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1418.50
Change : 13.80 or 0.98%

Palladium Price Close Today : 777.50
Change : 3.40 or 0.44%

S&P 500 : 1,872.34
Change : 14.72 or 0.79%

Dow In GOLD$ : $265.08
Change : $ 4.28 or 1.64%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.823
Change : 0.207 or 1.64%

Dow in SILVER oz : 833.97
Change : 8.41 or 1.02%

Dow Industrial : 16,457.66
Change : 134.60 or 0.82%

US Dollar Index : 80.240
Change : -0.100 or -0.12%

Mercy! I hope y'all are listening to me, because silver and GOLD PRICES look prettier than a new puppy here.

What! Have you lost what little mind you ever had, you nacheral born durn fool from Tennessee?

Maybe, but maybe I ain't that big a fool after all. The GOLD PRICE lost $10.40 (0.8%) today to $1,283.40 but the SILVER PRICE only lost 3.8 cents (0.2%) to end at 1973.4. This disagreement shows up in the GOLD/SILVER PRICE, which fell from 65.436 on Friday to 65.035 today.

Now I don't know nothin', not a durned thing, but I can look at a chart and report. The gold price has fallen back a little more than 50% of its December-March rise, right back to the running together of the 200 and 50 day moving averages, back to lateral support around $1,300 - $1,295. Stay with me now.

From November through February gold traced out an upside-down head and shoulders reversal pattern. The neckline of that pattern strikes gold's price graph today about $1,283. So what? So after a breakout from that pattern, the market often trades BACK to that neckline for one final kiss good-bye, then turns around and races out the door. Other indicators are more oversold than government lies and propaganda. AND gold is skidding along, sliding down its lower Bollinger band.

What about silver? For the first time today I looked at both silver and gold and saw a similarity in the charts. If you call silver's reversal range from November through February an upside down HandS, and you have to look very hard to see it, a line drawn across the shoulders (not the neckline) stands about 1950c. So, too, the downtrend line from April hits there, the line silver broke through and above in April, so right now it is kissing back to that line -- WHOOPS, which just happens to coincide with the 75% correction point.

Put it on the razor's edge. Neither silver nor gold can fall much further than this without asking to fall a lot further. They will either stop and turn here or within a few points, or fall much further. I believe they'll turn. I believe this is a great spot to buy.

I have to get out of here. I love y'all, but we have a Hereford sow that gave birth to 10 piglets over the weekend, I haven't seen them yet, and the sun is about to go down.

Shucks, I forgot to tell y'all one more thing: Platinum and Palladium rose strongly today after falling hard last week. One more good sign.

Ahh, the little pee-puhl! Yes, we MUST think of the little pee-puhl!

Mother Janet today made a speech in which she tried to un-say her mistake at the last FOMC press conference. Y'all may remember -- or y'all may have already purposely forgotten it as an item too silly and disgusting to bother cluttering your cerebellum with -- that Mother Janet made the false step of alluding to letting interest rates rise in six months. Mercy! It was like giving bad whiskeyand downers to a depressive -- stock market swooned at the prospect. So today she tried to correct that by speechifying that the Fed would have to keep interest rates low to help the job market. Stocks went manic.

All this sounds a bit like Louis XIV worrying how all his illegitimate children are going to make a living. Why does that concern you NOW? Isn't it a little late for that?

Besides, what does an academic and long time banking apparatchik like Yellen know what it means to strap on a tin bill and peck in the dust with the chickens? When did she ever meet a payroll? Or work two jobs just to keep food on the table? Or survive on unemployment? Ahh, yes, the little pee-puhl! Before you talk about 'em, you ought to know at least one, maybe two.

Our nobility is just as arrogant as aristocrats of the French Ancien Régime, but not nearly as classy or good looking. In the end they are just nouveau riche Lumpenproletariat who've been to college, or Jeeter Lester enriched by usury.

So Mother Janet's speech goosed stocks, but not enough. Harken, I will elucidate.

Dow climbed 134.6 (0.28%) to 16,457.66 while the S&P500 leapt 14.72 (0.8%) to 1,872.34. That sounds like hearty progress, 'cept it did no more than propel both indices to the top of that even-sided triangle and stop. Now maybe they jump through tomorrow, but they're needing larger and larger clouds of Fed hot-gas to inflate them. 'Tain't progress.

But with a drop in metals, today's Yellen-spellin' was enough to drive the Dow in metals up further. Dow in gold rose 1.7% to 12.82 oz (G$265.01 gold dollars). This corrects a little better than 50% of the fall from End December to mid-March. Garden variety correction.

Dow in silver rose 0.12% to 833.21 oz (S$1,077.28 silver dollars), correcting about 75% of the December - February fall. Both indicators have stretched way up into overbought territory, which hints they will unstretch soon.

The fabulous US dollar index, robber of widows and orphans, despoiler of nations, global parasite, betrayed its fans again today. It broke out upside from the little consolidation or flag it had formed, ran through its 50 DMA above with an 80.57 high, then sank like your glasses fallen out of your shirt pocket when you looked over the edge of the bass boat. Closed lower by 10 basis points (0.12%) -- puking sick weak action. Next move ought to be down. And this one was thanks to Mother Janet, too, since interest rates figure large in determining exchange rates, and Mama Janet said she intends to keep 'em low a long time. Hard not to conclude that the establishment WANTS the dollar to fall largely.

Euro poked up its head 0.16% to $1.3770, but remains in its trajectory off the cliff. No big comeback there. Yen fell 0.3% to 96.88 c/Y100, trying to break out of its trading range to the downside.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, March 28, 2014

The Gold Price Reached $1,286.10, 50 Percent Correction Target

Gold Price Close Today : 1,293.80
Gold Price Close 21-Mar-14 : 1,336.00
Change : -42.20 or -3.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.772
Silver Price Close 21-Mar-14 : 20.286
Change : -0.514 or -2.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.436
Gold Silver Ratio 21-Mar-14 : 65.858
Change : -0.422 or -0.6%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01528
Silver Gold Ratio 21-Mar-14 : 0.01518
Change : 0.00010 or 0.6%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 260.80
Dow in Gold Dollars 21-Mar-14 : $ 252.25
Change : 8.55 or 3.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.616
Dow in Gold Ounces 21-Mar-14 : 12.203
Change : 0.41 or 3.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 825.56
Dow in Silver Ounces 21-Mar-14 : 803.65
Change : 21.92 or 2.7%

Dow Industrial : 16,323.06
Dow Industrial 21-Mar-14 : 16,302.77
Change : 20.29 or 0.1%

S&P 500 : 1,857.32
S&P 500 21-Mar-14 : 1,866.72
Change : -9.40 or -0.5%

US Dollar Index : 80.330
US Dollar Index 21-Mar-14 : 80.250
Change : 0.08 or 0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,404.70
Platinum Price Close 21-Mar-14 : 1,435.50
Change : -30.80 or -2.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 774.10
Palladium Price Close 21-Mar-14 : 788.75
Change : -14.65 or -1.9%

Silver and GOLD PRICES argued with each other today. Gold lost 90 cents to $1,293.80 on Comex. Silver rose 8.2 cents to 1977.2 cents. Ratio fell to 65.436 from yesterday's 65.754.

Both metals are riding their bottom Bollinger Bands, which increases likelihood of a turnaround. The GOLD PRICE today reached $1,286.10, my target for this move and a 50% correction. The SILVER PRICE hit 1958c yesterday and 1962c today, close enough to call my 1950c target met. After Monday both should turn up and leave y'all scratching your heads and twisting your necks around 180 degrees for that perfect hindsight and saying to yourselves, "I KNEW I should have bought some last week."

Bad week for metals, middlin' mediocre week for stocks, might have been a good week for the US dollar.

Stocks have been treading water this week, up and down in the same spot, over and under the 20 DMA without being above to make up their mind. S&P500 broke the bottom boundary of an even-sided triangle yesterday, but that breakdown proved false when it reversed today and closed up within the triangle.

Dow added 58.83 (0.36%) to close 16,323.06. S&P500 rose 8.58 (0.46%) to 1,857.62.

Dow in metals has that feeling of a fly ball reaching the height of its arc. Dow in Gold rose 0.13% to 12.61 oz ($260.67 gold dollars) but leveled off. I am anticipating a turn, since it stands above its 50 DMA (12.36) which means momentum is up. Dow in silver dipped barely down, down 0.09% to 824.81 oz (S$1,066.42 silver dollars. I may be no better than that ox on his way to slaughter who don't know enough to be afraid, but for some reason these rallying Dow in metals don't disturb me. I expected a sharp rally after that long fall, but don't expect this will last much longer.

Nasty, filthy, noxious, vile, beastly, foul, loathsome, lousy, mephitic, noisome, odious, scrofulous, scurvy, parasitic -- yea, all these describe fiat dollars, yen, and euros. And I'm just warming up my thesaurus here.

US Dollar index is glacially trying to rise. It did manage to stand up off the floor this week, and rose six basis points (0.07%) to 80.33 today. Technically it's trending up, but without any enthusiasm.

Euro broke down sure enough this week. Bounced 0.08% today to $1.3753, but it's plumb broken. Next week should cross below its bunched 20, 50, and 62 day moving averages.

Yen busted its 50 DMA today, falling to 97.27 cents/y100. Still range-bound, trending sideways.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, March 27, 2014

The Gold Price Should Rally From Here

Gold Price Close Today : 1294.70
Change : -8.70 or -0.67%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.690
Change : -0.069 or -0.35%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.754
Change : -0.211 or -0.32%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01521
Change : 0.000049 or 0.32%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1397.20
Change : -9.30 or -0.66%

Palladium Price Close Today : 761.00
Change : -20.15 or -2.58%

S&P 500 : 1,849.04
Change : -3.52 or -0.19%

Dow In GOLD$ : $259.68
Change : $ 1.66 or 0.64%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.562
Change : 0.080 or 0.64%

Dow in SILVER oz : 826.01
Change : 2.64 or 0.32%

Dow Industrial : 16,264.23
Change : -4.76 or -0.03%

US Dollar Index : 80.110
Change : 0.030 or 0.04%

The GOLD PRICE sank $8.70 to $1,294.70 and the SILVER PRICE lost 6.9 cents to 1969.0c. Disaster? Not quite. Today's range with a 1958c low touched the downtrend line form the April 2013 high, same line silver broke through skyward in April. This constitutes a kiss back to breakout, and should hold -- should.

The GOLD PRICE low at $1,291.20 brought it nearly to that 50% correction at $1,287, which is the neckline of the upside down Head and Shoulders gold broke through in February. Gold has now tangled its feet in the 50 DMA ($1,303.8) and 200 DMA ($1,299.41). Today's trading pretty much hit my targets for this decline. Now we might from here get a rally, then one more touch back to these levels.

Of course, I will be shown once again to be no more'n a nacheral born fool from Tennessee should silver and gold prices drop sharply. Fool or not, I don't see that on the chart.

Y'all have mercy on me today. I have to attend a show-off home schooling event for some of my grandchildren, and my dear wife will flay me if I'm late.

Here are the highlights. Stocks continued to deteriorate, although the closes didn't show the full view of it. Closes were near yesterdays, but the lows were a lot lower, so the range was much lower than yesterdays. Whoa! S&P500 broke DOWN out of that even-sided triangle we've been watching. Dow lost 4.76 (0.03%) to 16,264.23 while the S&P500 slid 3.52 (0.19%) to 1,849.04. Should follow through lower and lower.

US dollar index finally stood up and gained a whole 16 basis points (0.2%) to 80.28. This leaves the chart hopeful, but nothing to brag about. Euro looks like it ate a pound of bad meat, dropped 0.32% today to $1.3741, not far from turning very negative by falling below its 50 DMA ($1.3715). Yen lost 0.14% to 97.87 c/Y100, still treading water.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, March 26, 2014

The Gold Price Has Corrected, Time To Buy

Gold Price Close Today : 1303.40
Change : -8.02 or -0.61%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.759
Change : -0.196 or -0.98%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.965
Change : 0.246 or 0.37%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01516
Change : -0.000057 or -0.37%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1406.50
Change : -14.40 or -1.01%

Palladium Price Close Today : 781.15
Change : -8.25 or -1.05%

S&P 500 : 1,852.56
Change : -13.06 or -0.70%

Dow In GOLD$ : $258.02
Change : $ 0.02 or 0.01%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.482
Change : 0.001 or 0.01%

Dow in SILVER oz : 823.37
Change : 3.13 or 0.38%

Dow Industrial : 16,268.99
Change : -98.89 or -0.60%

US Dollar Index : 80.110
Change : 0.030 or 0.04%

Today the GOLD PRICE fell $8.02 (0.6%) to close Comex at $1,303.40. Silver fell 19.6 cents (1%) to 1975.9 cents.

Today's action pretty well fulfills my targets for the correction, i.e., $1,300 and 1950c. Lows came at $1,299.30 and 1968c. Y'all can stand around waiting for perfection, but I'm not. Both metals fell off about noon, but without any more drama than a short waterfall. Little V-bottoms near day's end might mark the lows. Believe it or not I had a customer today who bought 60 cents off the day's lows. Good shooting!

What's the downside risk? With the GOLD PRICE, possible drop to $1,287. the SILVER PRICE could -- but might not, drop as far as 1950 - 1945c. Not much from here, unless some surprise ariseth.

Time to buy silver and gold.

A reader wrote asking, "Many people are predicting a depression which will take down the price of almost everything. You feel that real estate and other tangible assets will also depreciate. Why don't you feel that precious metals and other commodities won't also take a big hit?"

Because silver and gold are not commodities. Silver and gold prices are driven by MONETARY not economic demand as commodities are (copper, lumber, tin). They rise when inflation is eating out the dollar's value. So regardless of economic conditions, inflation will drive silver and gold higher, because people seeing their dollars lose value will seek refuge in silver and gold. Everything of value will NOT tank in the future, only those items whose value depends on economic demand, and that doesn't include silver and gold.

It doesn’t overstate much to say we are already in a depression, and that will over time lower most assets' value. However, the Fed and yankee government have shown that they will respond to every crisis by printing more money, so an inflationary depression will result. The underlying economic condition will be a depression (shrinking economic activity) while the monetary condition will be inflation resulting in rising prices. Although asset prices may rise, they will in fact be losing value or purchasing power, unless they rise faster than the dollar falls.

Purchasing power is all that counts. You can see this in the Dow yesterday at 16,367.88, which appears much higher than its 2000 peak at 11,722. However, corrected for inflation (even using the government's understated and jimmied numbers), that 11,722 in 2000 equals only 15,982 today. Turn that around: 2014's 16,367.88 would equal only 12,005 in 2000. The Dow has not gained (16,367.88/11,722 = 40%, but 12,005/11,722 = 2.4% in purchasing power. Adjusted for real inflation loss, the Dow is lower now than it was in 2000.

If I could teach y'all just one thing, it would be FORGET NOMINAL GAINS and LOOK ONLY AT PURCHASING POWER GAIN OR LOSS.

Y'all remember this, too: inflation does not stimulate the economy, any more than illegal counterfeiting would. Inflation always creates booms that go bust, and disrupts the economy in thousands of other ways. Inflation benefits only those near the source of the inflation, i.e., Wall Street, and the bureaucrats and politicians who produce inflation while it robs all others.

Now that I've hawked that bone out of my throat, let's look at markets.

Stocks see-sawed back the other way today, losing more than they gained yesterday. Dow got near its upper downtrend line and looked like Dracula smelling garlic -- wilted. S&P500 bounced from top of its even-sided triangle to the bottom, and closed there for good measure. Dow lost 98.89 (0.6%) and closed 16,268.99. S&P500 coughed up 13.06 (0.7%) to roost at 1,852.56. Both of them perched below their 20 day moving averages. I have no opinion, triangles can surprise, but all this carries with it the scent of weakness.

Silver is supposed to be strong relative to gold when stocks are strong and vice versa, but it hasn't been following that script lately. Dow in gold dropped slightly today, down 0.15% to 12.46 oz (G$257.57 gold dollars). It stands barely above the 50 DMA (12.39 oz or G$256.12), which might be a splendid place to turn down. But no indication of that yet. I'm anticipating.

Dow in silver rose 0.63% to 824.37 oz (S$1,065.85 silver dollars). Unless stocks break down soon, it's liable to return to that December high at 853.1 oz. It has already fulfilled a 75% correction of the Dec - Feb drop.

Last five days the US dollar index has established a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs. Now it's sort of bunching up, with a small range today, 80.29 - 80.06. Rose a less-than-gigantic three basis points today to 80.11. This sort of "stability" smacks of the strong hand of Nice Government Men.

Euro back appears to have been broken. Closed again today beneath its 20 DMA, and lost another 0.3% to end at $1.3785. This comes after a breakout it could not cash in on. Yen rose 0.24% but that is sound and fury, signifying nothing, even with a close at 98.01 cents/Y100. Gold in euros and in British pounds looks like a buy here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, March 25, 2014

The Gold Price Rose Closing at $1,311.40

Gold Price Close Today : 1,311.40
Change : 0.20 or 0.02%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.955
Change : -0.088 or -0.44%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.718
Change : 0.299 or 0.46%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01522
Change : -0.000069 or -0.45%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1420.90
Change : -10.30 or -0.72%

Palladium Price Close Today : 789.40
Change : -5.95 or -0.75%

S&P 500 : 1,865.62
Change : 8.18 or 0.44%

Dow In GOLD$ : $258.01
Change : $ 1.40 or 0.54%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.481
Change : 0.068 or 0.54%

Dow in SILVER oz : 820.24
Change : 8.15 or 1.00%

Dow Industrial : 16,367.88
Change : 91.19 or 0.56%

US Dollar Index : 80.060
Change : 0.030 or 0.04%

The GOLD PRICE rose -- are y'all ready for this -- twenty cents today, to close Comex at $1,311.40. The range was from $1,335.70 to $1,308.50.

Gold traced out a strange pattern today, like a cross section of a volcano. From yesterday's lows around $1,308 it ramped up, flattened out, then dropped to the day's low suddenly, and just as suddenly rose back to the mouth of the caldera. Rest of the day it trailed off down hill. Silver trading today looked much the same, only moreso.

The SILVER PRICE gave up 8.8 cents to close Comex at 1995.5c.

Bollinger Bands are a gauge of volatility over the last 20 or so days of trading. When a market hits the top band, it's pushing its luck, and when it hits the lower band it's a candidate for rallying. Both silver and gold are trading at or below their bottom Bollinger Bands. No magic there to prevent a market from punching far through those lines, just less likely. This makes both look ready for some sort of countertrend rally. However, I note that on the way up, both kept punching into that top BB for a long time.

Remember to watch on the GOLD PRICE chart that triple confluence of the 200 DMA, 50 DMA, and $1,300 resistance/support. In silver watch for a spike toward 1950c.

If you want to see a picture of "financialization of the economy," go to http://read.bi/1ixWea3 for the Business Insider Chart of the Day entitled "The Rise of the $156 Trillion Market for Global Financial Assets."

From about $10 trillion in 1980, global financial assets have grown from to $156 trillion. Between 2000 and 2013, debt markets tripled in size. The reasons cited in the article are not the causes, only footnotes. The real cause is twofold, (1) an enormous debt increase and (2) "financialization." Financialization occurs when financing, the parasitical, useless, and mischievous trafficking in paper, crowds production (agriculture and industry) out of the economy. Financialization is simply churning debt, securitizing everything in sight, to profit the financializers, who add no value to the world's wealth, only to their own. And the chart doesn't show the OTC derivatives market, with a notional value of $693 trillion.

Briefly stated, the chart reveals the hyperbolic growth of a tapeworm. My, my, you all are looking a mite pale and peaked. Y'all wouldn't be suffering from economic tapeworms, would you?

Stocks teetered the other way today, up instead of down, but little changed. The two big indices did manage to close above their 20 day moving averages, while yesterday they closed below. Dow added 91.19 (0.6%) to 16,388.77. S&P500 augmented 8.18 (0.4%) to 1,865.62

S&P500 remains within an even-sided triangle whose upper boundary hovers right above today 1,872 high. That triangle tells us naught about a breakout's direction up or down, only that one looms. S&P500 remains with (for now) a double top while the Dow shows a series of declining tops or double tops. This is not the matter from which great rallies are spun, but the Dow's MACD is trying -- trying -- to flash a buy signal.

Dow in metals continued to rise. Dow in Gold climbed 0.385 to 12.48 oz (G$257.98 gold dollars) and closed above its 50 DMA (12.40). About time to about face. Dow in Silver ascended 0.36% for an 819.25 oz close (S$1,059.23) and is well above its 50 DMA and an internal resistance line. A 75% correction would carry it to 823.58 oz (S$1,064.83).

US dollar index tagged along with stocks, teetering the other way today but after an 80.42 high, it closed at 80.09, up only 3 basis points. That smells weak. Anyway, the dollar does nothing until it bursts through 80.50.

Bad news for the Frenken-currency today. Euro fell 0.09% to $1.3825, slap on its 20 DMA. This adds to a series of lower lows. If support at $1.3750 gives, the euro will be diving off a dock with cast iron shoes. Media reasons given for the euro's decline were disappointing business confidence, plus ECB jawboning and posturing.

Yen fell a meaningless 0.04% to 97.80 cents/Y100. Locked in a 99.24 - 96.38 trading range. All inbetween is meaningless noise.

O'Bama today said Russia's further encroachment into Ukraine would be "a bad choice." Face it: Teddy Roosevelt he ain't. He ain't even Millard Fillmore.

Today is independence day in Greece, celebrating their wining independence from Turkey in 1821. Now if they could just win independence from the banks. . .

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, March 24, 2014

The Gold Price Closed at $1,311.20, Get Ready for Exceptionally Favorable Buying Opportunities

Gold Price Close Today : 1311.20
Change : -24.80 or -1.86%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.043
Change : -0.243 or -1.20%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.419
Change : -0.439 or -0.67%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01529
Change : 0.000102 or 0.67%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1430.70
Change : 4.80 or 0.34%

Palladium Price Close Today : 795.35
Change : 6.60 or 0.84%

S&P 500 : 1,857.64
Change : -9.08 or -0.49%

Dow In GOLD$ : $256.61
Change : $ 4.36 or 1.73%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.414
Change : 0.211 or 1.73%

Dow in SILVER oz : 812.09
Change : 8.44 or 1.05%

Dow Industrial : 16,276.69
Change : -26.08 or -0.16%

US Dollar Index : 80.060
Change : -0.190 or -0.24%

The GOLD PRICE caught an updraught on Friday but hit the skids today, losing $24.80 to close Comex at $1,311.20.

Until about 9:30 EST the gold price was fine if lower, trading about $1,325. Then it dropped to $1,315, traded sideways, and fell as low as $1,308.50. Tomorrow and the next day might see the GOLD PRICE climb, but the ultimate target here is [likely] either the meeting of lateral support and the 50 and 200 DMAs around $1,300, or the 50% correction of the December - March rally at $1,287, coinciding with the neckline of gold's upside down head and shoulders traced out November - January.

Lo, this is not grist for y'all's panic mill. It's a correction. Normal, after a long rally. Take a deep breath.

The SILVER PRICE today lost 24.3 cents and closed Comex at 2004.3c. Like gold, silver was rocking along smoothly between 2010c and 2025c until about 9:30 when the selling struck, taking it down to 2003c. Silver fought back with a rally to 2020c, but the rest of the day wore it down. In the aftermarket it fell even lower than the Comex 1997c low.

In silver look for an ultimate (by month's end) target from 1975c to 1945c. More likely is something around 1950c - 1960c, where the downtrend line from April 2013 now intersects. Recall that silver burst through that line on 14 February, so it would be typical for it to kiss back to that breakaway line before it resumes rallying. Another nested target is the 75% correction of the Dec - February rally at 1958.5c. It has already fulfilled a 61.8% correction at 2004c.

Silver and gold prices will probably spend most of the rest of March correcting. Soon will come an exceptionally favorable buying opportunity. Watch. Get ready.

Markets are teetering back and forth and not even blizzard of new bucks from the Fed can give them rest and direction.

Sorta spooky in stocks. On Friday the S&P500 made a double top intraday at 1,883.97 with the 1,883.57 March high. That also flashed the first half of a key reversal (new intraday high for the move with a lower close for the day) and confirmed that as a key reversal today with a lower close. That 1,857.64 close, down 9.08 or 0.49% also fell below the old uptrend line I've been writing about.

That ain't all. Since that earlier March top the S&P500 has formed an even-sided triangle -- Friday's high punched above it but Friday's close fell back within it). Today it closed near the bottom boundary of that even-sided triangle.

S&P500 stockcharts.com
I remind y'all that even-sided triangle formations do not hint which way they will break out, only that they will soon. With that spooky double top and an MACD pointing downward, odds lean to a downward breakout. However, volume fell so maybe 'twill teeter back the other way. See Chart:

Dow closed at 16,276.69, lower by 26.08 (0.16%). It has also painted both halves of a key reversal Friday and today, and closed below its 20 day moving average (as did the S&P500).

I am biased to expect another peak between now and June, but I can't argue with a chart. This one looks heavy, like a cast-iron kite.

Zut alors! The Dow in Metals jumped up today, but struck some provocative points. Dow in gold rose 1.61% to 12.41 oz (G$256.54 gold dollars) and stopped on the 50 DMA (12.41 oz). Could market the upward correction's limit, but no other indicators argue for that outcome except the full stochastics.

As we always expect from more volatile silver, the Dow in Silver has moved further, up today by 0.95% to 811.12 oz (S$1,048.72 silver dollars). That's well above its 50 DMA (784.40 oz) and at an old internal resistance line whose lineage would be too complicated to explain. Momentum is up for the nonce, but those who swapped stocks for silver back in June 2001 when the Dow cost 2,562 oz are not much bothered.

US dollar index has once again proven true to character and stabbed its friends in the back. Last week it broke bravely upside out of a bullish falling wedge, slammed into its 50 DMA at 80.50, then fell back as fast as it paper legs cloud carry it. Closed today at 80.06, 19 basis points (0.24%) cheaper than Friday. Technically still in an uptrend, but to me remains esthetically and instinctually a piece by Bela Bartok or Marc Chagall. (Call me a Philistine, I don't care. Y'all expect a nacheral born fool from Tennessee would like music that don't muse and pichers that don't picher nothin'? Not likely.)

Euro meanwhile appeared to recover from its breakdown last week. It climbed 0.34% to $1.3840. Say what you will, it is a chart I would never buy.

Yen moved a giant 0.1% up to 97.82 cents/Y100. Range-bound, and sayeth naught until it closeth over 99.24 or beneath 96.38.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, March 21, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Higher $5.50 at $1,336

Gold Price Close Today : 1,336.00
Gold Price Close 14-Mar-14 : 1,379.00
Change : -43 or -3.22%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.31
Silver Price Close 14-Mar-14 : 21.384
Change : -1.074 or -5.29%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.78
Gold Silver Ratio 14-Mar-14 : 64.487
Change : 1.293 or 2.0%

Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.





Thursday, March 20, 2014

The Gold Price Corrected $10.90 Closing at $1,330.50

Gold Price Close Today : 1,330.50
Gold Price Close 14-Mar-14 : 1,379.00
Change : -48.50 or -3.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.404
Silver Price Close 14-Mar-14 : 21.384
Change : -0.98 or -4.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.208
Gold Silver Ratio 14-Mar-14 : 64.487
Change : 0.720 or 1.1%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01534
Silver Gold Ratio 14-Mar-14 : 0.01551
Change : -0.00017 or -1.1%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 253.73
Dow in Gold Dollars 14-Mar-14 : $ 240.83
Change : 12.90 or 5.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.274
Dow in Gold Ounces 14-Mar-14 : 11.650
Change : 0.62 or 5.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 800.38
Dow in Silver Ounces 14-Mar-14 : 751.29
Change : 49.09 or 6.5%

Dow Industrial : 16,331.05
Dow Industrial 14-Mar-14 : 16,065.67
Change : 265.38 or 1.7%

S&P 500 : 1,872.01
S&P 500 14-Mar-14 : 1,841.13
Change : 30.88 or 1.7%

US Dollar Index : 80.370
US Dollar Index 14-Mar-14 : 79.440
Change : 0.93 or 1.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,434.30
Platinum Price Close 14-Mar-14 : 1,469.00
Change : -34.70 or -2.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 772.00
Palladium Price Close 14-Mar-14 : 773.00
Change : -1.00 or -0.1%

I won't be in the office tomorrow, so I am sending this weekly update today.

Silver and GOLD PRICES both dropped today but only roughly to the levels seen in yesterday's aftermarket. From yesterday's Comex close the gold price dropped $10.90 to $1,330.50 while silver lost 39.6 cents (1.9%) to 2040.4c. GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose to 65.208.

Really only one question hangs over gold and silver: was December's low really a double bottom, or now, after a rally, will they drop terrifyingly to a new low. Whichever outlook you take determines your opinion at this juncture. I'll tell y'all up front I believe the December lows were a double bottom, and so I expect this correction to be limited like a bull market rally. In other words gold will give back 38% to 50% and silver 62% to 75% of the foregoing gain, but the bottom will not drop out to hit new lows.

Silver and gold prices probably hit the high of their rally off the December lows this week and began a correction.

First let's look at some related markets. The gold stock indices XAU, GDX, and HUI have all broken down after strong rallies but remain above their 50 and 200 DMAs. The Gold/BKK Banking Stock Index has fallen sharply below its 50 DMA. Bank stocks jumped up strongly yesterday, probably on anticipation they will be sucking more blood out of us in the future, interest-wise. When Bank stocks outperform gold it means the public is willing to take on more risk. In what cannot be labeled good news for stocks, copper broke down below $3.00 and in spite of coagulating right under that breakdown, has not managed to come back.

So gold stocks are falling in sympathy with their underlying value-giver, gold, while the public is reaching for more risk. Unhappily for the public, Dr. Copper is predicting more economic anemia, with perhaps violent puking in the wastebasket.

The GOLD PRICE today ranged from $1,336.30 to $1,320.80. It hit that low about 9:30, then rose again to trade around $1,330 most of the day, about where it ended the day yesterday. On a chart this looks like a V bottom. That low came in not far from a 38.2% correction ($1,311.92). A 50% correction would take gold to $1,287.00. The gold price also broke through the lower boundary of its Dec - March upward trading channel. The 200 DMA stands at $1,301.44, and that offers another safety net to catch gold.

I hope I'm not just imagining things in the chart, but the SILVER PRICE made a V-bottom today at 2014c between 9:00 a.m. and 10:00 am, then rose to spend the rest of the day oscillating between 2045 and 2025c. A 62% correction would take silver to 2005c. It broke the 50 DMA (2056c).

As I said, if this is a correction to a rally and the 2011-2013 correction has ended, we have seen falls just about far enough to satisfy that correction. The market will tell us.

Stocks gained and lost more of the same ground this week than the British army in World War I, but ended a bit higher. Currencies all reversed. Mother Janet's first FOMC meeting added manic volatility to the mix, bless her heart. ("bless her heart" is a chameleon Southern expression that means, "Poor thing -- she just don't know no better.")

In the train of the FOMC meeting the market understood, thanks to Mother Janet's loose lips in the press converence, that the Fed would raise interest rates much earlier than they mean to. Since interest rates primarily determine exchange rates (along with relative inflation rates), the dollar shot up out of the bullish falling wedge formed since the year began. Pretty tough to gainsay this breakout, since it has punched through the 20 day moving average (79.94) and reached the 50 DMA (80.46). Today the Dollar index rose another 22 basis points (0.27%) to 80.37. Dollar index needed to rise over 80 to prove it still had blood in its veins, and did that rather handily. This rally out of that falling wedge targets at least 81.50 and probably higher.

Some I will forbear to call shallow thinkers will conclude this means that silver and gold cannot rise because the dollar is rising. They are wrong. Gold and silver's long correction ended with the double bottom in December. Now markets are in new territory, and now the Fed must deal with its loony actions since 2008. Lots of things can happen, but however it plays out, silver and gold will be rising again.

The dollar's rise made a believer out of the euro. After feigning an upside breakout that carried to $1.3958, the dollar has again turned down. Euro fell like your brother-in-law's reputation when he showed up drunk for your uncle's funeral. Gapped down past the 20 DMA (1.3812) to close down 0.38% at $1.3778. 'Twould be logical to conclude that at last the Europeans had all of a high euro they could stand, so made a deal with the Fed to change places for a while.

Meanwhile the Yen fell 0.02% to 97.65 cents/Y100, trapped in a sideways trading range.

The 10 year treasury yield closed yesterday above its 20 and 50 DMAs and stayed there today. Closed up 0.11% to 2.775%. Needs to clear last high at 2.821% to claim it's rallying.

What do you say about a market that loses 2/3 of 1% on day and turns and regains it the next? Central bank interference, but you can't be sure which way. The FOMC statement yesterday took the Dow down about 110 points, but today it came back 108.88 (0.67%) to 16,331.05, resting above its 20 DMA (16,275.14). Yet the chart remains a double top until it can close above 16,505.70, the last high. S&P500 rose 11.24, up 0.6% to 1,872.01. Here, too, it remains in a down trend until it can close above $1,874, and it is close.

Dow in Gold and in Silver are receiving the correction I had expected earlier. Dow in silver rose 2.36% (18.56 oz) to 805.28 oz (S$1041.13 silver dollars). That's way aboev the downtrend line and above the 20 DMA and 50 DMA. Doe in gold also broke above its downtrend line and rose again above the 200 DMA (12.05 oz) and 20 DMA (12.10 oz). Floated up 0.85% to 12.3 oz ($254.26 gold dollars). Both must stop soon or continue to rise much higher.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, March 19, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $17.60 by Comex Close at $1,341.40

Gold Price Close Today : 1641.40
Change : -17.60 or -1.06%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.800
Change : -0.036 or -0.17%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 78.913
Change : -0.708 or -0.89%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01267
Change : 0.000113 or 0.90%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1451.20
Change : -10.00 or -0.68%

Palladium Price Close Today : 768.65
Change : -3.10 or -0.40%

S&P 500 : 1,860.77
Change : -11.48 or -0.61%

Dow In GOLD$ : $204.30
Change : $ 0.75 or 0.37%

Dow in GOLD oz : 9.883
Change : 0.036 or 0.37%

Dow in SILVER oz : 779.91
Change : -4.12 or -0.53%

Dow Industrial : 16,222.17
Change : -114.02 or -0.70%

US Dollar Index : 80.150
Change : 0.620 or 0.78%

The GOLD PRICE lost $17.60 (1.3%) by Comex close at $1,341.40, then lost another $10 in the aftermarket after the FOMC's eructations. Silver gainsaid the gold price by dropping only 3.6 (0.2%) to 2080, then dropped another 17 cents in the aftermarket to 2063c.

I read several analysts, and had to laugh today that one of them was ruminating a BIG drop in gold and the other was chirping about what a bullish set-up had unfolded in gold and silver. Here's what the charts show:

The GOLD PRICE has traded in the selfsame upward trading channel since its December low. Today's fall was the last of three days that have brought gold to touch the channel's bottom boundary. It also closed below its 20 DMA ($1,345). From here gold might (1) bounce off the lower channel boundary and resume its uptrend, or trade down to its 50 DMA ($1,295). The gold price is walking in some heavy boots here, my way of saying a lot of indicators point down. However, silver is gainsaying that weakness, and had a strong day, and that IS bullish.

Lo, is the man batty? Nope, he ain't. The SILVER PRICE yesterday traded down to about 2065c, broke that level today and traded as low as 2052c (never quite touched 2050) about noon, then bounced up to 2097c, and fell off again to 2052. A double bottom, and down only 3.6 cents on the day. Trading at 2063 in the aftermarket. Of such days big surprise turnarounds are made.

Of course, I might be just a fool spinning cobwebs in my brain, but silver did touch back to its 50 DMA today (2055c), a frequent target of corrections, and on the end of the day chart it closed unchanged. AND that 50 DMA happeneth to coincide, yea, to run atop of, the top boundary of silver's three month trading range, wherefrom it broke away stratosphereward in February. In plain English, silver broke out of that trading range, rallied to 2218c, and now hath fallen back to the breakout point for -- one final kiss good-bye, or to fall lower still? If you like to play guts ball, to take chances when you know the edge is on your side though the risk be great, then it's a ripe place to buy.

I may be scalped tomorrow, but I bought this evening. I'm just a durned fool. I'd always rather trust metal in hand than central bank functionaries in Washington. I just don't care for liars much, and never could trust 'em.

What if we all got it all wrong? What if the real business of the cosmos isn't work and sweat and tears but joy? What if CS Lewis was right when he said, "Joy is the serious business of heaven." What if joy is the serious business of our world, too, and of all creation?

What if instead of the dreary round of self-improvement and economic purpose, the purpose of all creation is joy? Did y'all ever watch a dog? Ever notice how much a dog enjoys being a dog? Acts like a dog just for the fun of it? Ever notice that pigs dance? They do, especially when a storm is kicking up. And when somebody is playing, why do we say he's "horsing around"? What if our whole purpose is just to rejoice in being what we are? To play and write and dance and make music and sing just for the fun of it? To romp for joy in God.

Wow. That'd put a lot of economists and politicians out of work, let alone do-gooders.

FOMC press conference today demonstrated once more that famous stabilizing effect that central banks were created for. And as usual, the market's reaction followeth not logic.

Predictably, the FOMC announced it would "taper" by buying only $55 billion in US treasuries and mortgage backed securities. Yet that was piddling to the announcement that the Fed was only kidding about keeping interest rates low until unemployment hit 6.5%. After all, so many people have given up on ever finding jobs now that 6.5% target is getting right easy to hit. Now the Fed has discovered previously unrecognized "scars" in the economy that won't heal for two more years. Thus the Great Healer, The Fed, must keep interest rates low and raise them only slowly.

Rather perversely in the face of the FOMC's resolve to keep repressing the economy with low interest rates, markets interpreted the statement as immediately higher interest rates. Ten year treasury yield shot up 3.39% (bonds dropped) 20 2.772%, well above the 2.708% 20 day moving average, and above the 2.745% 50 DMA as well. -- this despite 15 of the Fed's 16 policy makers believe it will be inappropriate to raise rates this year.

I am not a Fed policy maker but only a natural born durn fool from Tennessee, and I believe this is all hogwash, hoakum, and hype. They're lying as fast as their lips can move. They have to keep interest rates down below the inflation rate to inflate away the debt and to keep the US government's borrowing costs low. They've fallen into their own trap, and can't get out. All the rest is lies, and damn the economy, full speed ahead. They are harvesting you like a farmer harvests a herd of pigs, and think no more of you than he does a hanging side of pork.

Leaving these disgusting my-honor-is-for-sale-cheap white trash behind, let's look at other markets.

Stocks took the FOMC announcement hard, but why I can't guess. Everybody knew the Fed had telegraphed its tapering -- no news there. And if there were a real recovery, rising interest rates really wouldn't slow it down. Actually, rising rates usually accompany recoveries. Makes no sense, but markets have become schizophrenic information junkies, blown from side to side by the latest news without the slightest regard for the next 24 hours.

Dow dropped 114.02 or 0.7%to 16,222.17. S&P500 rode the same sled, down 11.48 (0.61%) to 1,860.77. On the charts both indices bounced up to their short term downtrend line, hit it, and bounced down again. Momentum took a hit as the Dow closed below its 16,265.25 20 DMA and the S&P500 closed near its 20 DMA, 1858.43. Both indices are coiling up into a triangle which will break strongly one way or the other. Direction of least resistance is down.

The repulsive US dollar index rose 62 basis points to 80.15, clean out of its falling wedge and above its 20 DMA (79.94), both bullish signs. MACD also turned up.

The other two scrofulous fiat currencies are fairly mirror images of the dollar. Euro had broken out to the upside from a RISING wedge, above a long standing resistance line about $1.3900 and today fell nearly plumb through the wedge it had left behind. Closed $1.3828, down 0.75%.

Yen jumped off a cliff, too, down 0.885 to 97.95 cents/Y100. Pointed itself firmly earthward.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Gold Price Lost 1 Percent Closing at $1,359

Gold Price Close Today : 1359.00
Change : -13.90 or -1.01%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.836
Change : -0.413 or -1.94%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.224
Change : 0.614 or 0.95%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01533
Change : -0.000146 or -0.94%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1461.20
Change : -6.60 or -0.45%

Palladium Price Close Today : 771.75
Change : -4.45 or -0.57%

S&P 500 : 1,872.25
Change : 13.42 or 0.72%

Dow In GOLD$ : $248.49
Change : $ 3.86 or 1.58%

Dow in GOLD oz : 12.021
Change : 0.187 or 1.58%

Dow in SILVER oz : 784.04
Change : 19.43 or 2.54%

Dow Industrial : 16,336.19
Change : 88.97 or 0.55%

US Dollar Index : 79.530
Change : 0.010 or 0.01%

The GOLD PRICE lost $13.90 (1%) and closed at $1,359.00 Spot silver lost 41.3 cents (2%) to 2083.6c. Ratio rose to a new high for this move at 65.224.

The GOLD PRICE traded along above $1,360 until New York opened, when it dropped from 8:30 to 10:00 down to $1,351.10. After that it climbed steadily until 2:00 p.m,, when it began dropping off and ended the day sulking around $1,355. That takes gold back to the support/resistance level where this latest breakout began, and within stumbling distance of the 20 DMA ($1,344). Bottom boundary of there rising trading channel lies today about $1,340, so the area from $1,344 to $1,339 stands ready to catch gold. Another possibility is a fall back to the neckline where gold broke out in February, now about $1,290, near the 50 DMA ($1,293). That would have all the gold bugs puking in their wastebaskets and prove again the proverb's truth, "The Market is not benevolent." MACD flashed a sell signal today. Pendulum is swinging back to the downside.

O Woe! The SILVER PRICE fell back into its downtrend trading channel and below its 200 DMA (2096c). Not far below it will strike the top of that trading range it escaped in February -- that line stand about 2050c, right at the 50 DMA (2054c), a good place to halt a correction.

Up or down, I don't get too excited. The Fed and the yankee government are the truest friends silver and gold have. They will surely keep on flooding the market with money, and sure as they do, silver and gold will remain in a bull market and we will see greater gains from here than we saw from 2001 - 2011. Hide and watch.

Can we talk about something other than markets today? It's just the same old back and forth, and I'm afraid y'all are going to get tired of hearing about it.

Take those sorry fiat currencies, sorrier than gully dirt. They're gyrating back and forth like one of those old black GE fans on low, not doing a bit of good. US Dollar Index was practically petrified today. Had a 25 basis point range from 79.68 to 79.43, and closed up one lone basis point at 79.53. That does nothing and says nothing, except that nobody's interested in the dollar.

Euro gained 0.7% to $1.3932. If it intends to rally it's not in any big hurry, I'll say that. Yes, it's out there above the old top resistance, but why is it stuck?

Yen today gained 0.33% to 98.61, invalidating the exhaustion gap made yesterday, because those are never filled. Momentum is up.

STOCKS climbed again today. Dow bolted on a new 88.97 (0.55%) to 16,336.19. That’s above the 20 day moving average, and below the last top, which was lower than the top before and the one before that. In other words, still technically in a down trend. But it if gets a leg over that last top at 16,505, we might see the last and final new all-time high, one that will hold for a couple of centuries. S&P500 rose 13.42 (0.72%) to 1,872.25.

Dow in metals reversed today. Dow in gold rose 1.44% to 12.05 oz (G$249.10 gold dollars) and cut through and above its 200 DMA and the Downtrend line. Whispers of a bigger upward correction coming. Dow in silver rose 2.31% to 785.45 oz (S$1,015.53 silver dollars), rising over its 20 DMA and smack up to its downtrend line.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, March 17, 2014

The Gold Price Backed Down $6.10 Today Closing at $1,372.90

Gold Price Close Today : 1372.90
Change : -6.10 or -0.44%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.249
Change : -0.135 or -0.63%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.610
Change : 0.123 or 0.19%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01548
Change : -0.000029 or -0.19%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1467.80
Change : -1.20 or -0.08%

Palladium Price Close Today : 776.20
Change : 3.15 or 0.41%

S&P 500 : 1,858.83
Change : 17.70 or 0.96%

Dow In GOLD$ : $244.63
Change : $ 3.80 or 1.58%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.834
Change : 0.184 or 1.58%

Dow in SILVER oz : 764.61
Change : 13.32 or 1.77%

Dow Industrial : 16,247.22
Change : 181.55 or 1.13%

US Dollar Index : 79.510
Change : 0.007 or 0.01%

Silver and GOLD PRICES both backed down today, gold $6.10 (0.44%) to $1,372.9 and silver 13.5 cents (0.063%) to 2124.9c.

These are not gigantic changes, although the GOLD PRICE rushed into new high for the move with a lower close might possibly become a key reversal if it closes lower tomorrow. Silver did close below its 20 DMA at 2140c, but that's subject to oft whipsawing. Maybe silver and gold prices are merely wringing out the safe-haven enthusiasm. The gold price would have to fall to its 20 DMA at $1,342 to signal anything more than usual fluctuations.

Bigger question is whether the SILVER PRICE is contradicting gold's rally, or merely lagging as it often does. If silver is non-confirming, then gold could find trouble ahead.

I am still buying the price dips, although I'll give this one a day or so to sort itself out. That bull market may be dissembling, trying to shake off the most riders possible.

I won't be sending y'all a commentary on this Friday because I am going to the Upcountry Literary Festival at the University of South Carolina at Union in Union, South Carolina. They have invited me to read from At Home in Dogwood Mudhole, on Saturday, 22 March 2014. My 25 minutes in the sun runs from 9:20 a.m. to 9:45 a.m. Last year Susan and I enjoyed a delightful time there from a wide variety of writers. If you make it, be sure to say hello to us. I won't be saying ne'er a word about silver and gold on stage.

I reckon you buy the rumor and sell the news. Putin's coup in Crimea was might near accomplished with the secession referendum over the weekend. The Crimeans who voted chose to secede from Ukraine and go with Russia. That appears to be a done deal, so perhaps now the entire issue will evaporate, boiling off in steam from hot politicians.

That attitude seems to have sucked the safe-haven money out of the yen today, perhaps out of gold, and blown it back into stocks. I'm not so sure. Contemporary politicians are just as moronic as those of 1914, so plenty capable of starting a devastating war. I can only pray they don't succeed.

Speaking of secession, how come they can do that in Crimea but we can't do that in Tennessee? After all, the US has been the promoter of "national self-determination" since Woodrow Wilson. I reckon that US enthusiasm depends on who's seceding from whom. Once the US seizes a country fair and square, they ain't forward to give it back. Ask the Hawai'ians.

Yen fell most on losing that safe-haven money, down 0.375 to 98.29 cents/Y100. Left behind a nasty exhaustion gap, which likely puts the cap on the Yen for some time.

Like Freddy Kruger, the euro has come back, even if its chainsaw is a mite dull. Technically it's headed for $1.4500, but what's "technical" to a central-bank-manipulated scrofulous fiat currency? Higher the euro climbs, more heat it puts on European manufacturers, mostly German.

US dollar is poised on a precipice, but rose 7 basis points today (0.09%) to 79.51. Should the dollar not reverse, it could suffer a blood-curdling fall from here.

The casino was re-opened and blowin' and goin' on Wall Street today. Dow shot up 181.55 (1.13%) to 14,247.22, a tinch over the 20 Day Moving Average (16,245.88). Dow remains in a downtrend until it crosses above 16,588.25, the December high. MACD flashed a sell signal last week, which flasheth still.

S&P500 leapt 0.965 (17.7) to 1,858.83, also above the 20 DMA (1,855.25). Needs to jump over $1,875 to beat the present downtrend.

After last week's big drops the Dow in Metals rose today on metal's weakness and stock strength. Neither stands in any near peril of reversing trend upward. Dow in Gold ended the day up 2.25% to 11.88 oz (G$245.58). Dow in Silver hit its 200 DMA Friday but bounced up today and even ran above its 20 DMA (759.45 oz). Went home today 2.42% higher at 766.74 oz (S$991.34 silver dollars).

Why do I report these prices in gold dollars and silver dollars? Either because I'm crazy, or because I'm trying to wean y'all off thinking in filthy fiat money and into real money. Also, measuring the Dow in gold gives us one unchanging measure of the Dow since it began in 1885.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, March 14, 2014

The Gold Price is in the Middle of a Rally, Up $40.90 this Week

Gold Price Close Today : 1,379.00
Gold Price Close 7-Mar-14 : 1,338.10
Change : 40.90 or 3.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.384
Silver Price Close 7-Mar-14 : 20.897
Change : 0.487 or 2.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.487
Gold Silver Ratio 7-Mar-14 : 64.033
Change : 0.454 or 0.7%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01551
Silver Gold Ratio 7-Mar-14 : 0.01562
Change : -0.00011 or -0.7%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 240.83
Dow in Gold Dollars 7-Mar-14 : $ 254.17
Change : -13.34 or -5.2%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.650
Dow in Gold Ounces 7-Mar-14 : 12.296
Change : -0.65 or -5.2%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 751.29
Dow in Silver Ounces 7-Mar-14 : 787.32
Change : -36.03 or -4.6%

Dow Industrial : 16,065.67
Dow Industrial 7-Mar-14 : 16,452.72
Change : -387.05 or -2.4%

S&P 500 : 1,841.13
S&P 500 7-Mar-14 : 1,878.04
Change : -36.91 or -2.0%

US Dollar Index : 79.440
US Dollar Index 7-Mar-14 : 79.730
Change : -0.29 or -0.4%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,469.00
Platinum Price Close 7-Mar-14 : 1,483.00
Change : -14.00 or -0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 773.00
Palladium Price Close 7-Mar-14 : 781.60
Change : -8.60 or -1.1%

Exactly one month after the silver and GOLD PRICE surge on 14 February, they are repeating their act. Stocks, on the other hand, have lost 287.37 or 2.4% in a five day losing streak. US dollar index looks puking sick, and platinum and palladium are breathing hard to keep up.

The GOLD PRICE scooped up another $6.80 (0.5%) today to pierce $1,375 and close at $1,379.00. Silver joined in, grabbing 21.5 (1%) cents to rise to 2138.4.

The SILVER PRICE was pushed to a 2114c low but gapped up about 5:30 a.m. EST. It stopped a leap from 2120 at 2180, but backed off that and traded between 2130c and 2150c most of the day.

Silver has formed what is probably a bullish flag (down-pointing flag) and today broke above the top of that range, but at the close was only about 8 cents above it. At day's end silver stopped at 2146c. Climbed today above the 20 DMA.

The gold silver ratio at 64.487 STRONGLY witnesses that silver is verging on playing catch up with gold, and running past it. First, however, silver must close above 2160 and then above 2218c, the February high.

Gold is a little overbought, but bull markets can stay overbought a long time. Since today it punched through its top Bollinger Band (a measure of range), we might see gold take a rest for the first couple of days next week. Of course, anything can happen over a weekend.

Last week gold closed above the downtrend line from its August 2011 high and above its 50 week moving average. This week's trading all took place above that downtrend line. On the monthly chart gold remains below its 20 and 50 month moving averages, but has broken out through the downtrend line there, too, and posted three rising months.

On a weekly chart silver has spent five weeks above the post-April 2011 downtrend line and this week closed barely below its 50 week MA (2150). It has spent four weeks trying to fight through that moving average. Silver's monthly chart reveals a breakout similar to gold's above the downtrend line, but only two months.

We're in the middle of a rally. Buy -- more silver than gold. If you have gold to swap for silver, do it fast.

Whoops! The Fed has sprung a money leak!. It holds US government securities in custody for foreign central banks, and for the week ending 12 March those fell $104 billion to $2.86 trillion. Speculation is that the Russians pulled theirs out ahead of the US government possibly locking them up. Now that little smidgen of treasuries withdrawn doesn't amount to anything, but its about three times the last biggest drop ever. And if more central banks took a notion to take delivery, or, worse yet, simply to sell, why there would be big trouble in Fed-ville.

Stocks had a consistent week: consistently lower. Dow yesterday dropped a thumping 231.19, today another 43.22 (0.27%) to end the week at 16,065.67. S&P500 lost 5.21 (0.28%) and ended the day at 1,841.13.

Y'all know that moving averages are momentum milestones. A market above its moving averages has upward inertia, a market below downward. When a market falls below its short term moving average (say, 20 day), it's warning of a downturn. When it falls below the 50 DMA, it picks up steam, etc. In the last two days the Dow dropped through both its 20 (16,241) and 50 (16,148) DMAs. S&P500 fell through its 20 (1,854) but not yet the 50 DMA (1,821).

More interesting still, the S&P500 has fallen through a long term uptrend line it had "thrown over" or broken out above. Now its punching back below. Same holds for an old upper boundary of the Dow's range. It threw over that line in November, traded up until end-December, cascaded down through that support in January all the way to its 200 DMA, then rallied back over the line. Today it sits just above it. Add a downward or sell cross in the MACD indicator, and, well, stocks look a mite peaked.

It appears that the Dow's refusal to confirm new highs in the S&P500 and other indices in this last rally was telegraphing underlying weakness. However, it's like a dead rattlesnake. Don't count it out until somebody cuts off its head. Stocks will likely still back to a new high before May.

I'm strapping on a muzzle so I don't crow too much over the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. They fell from end-December until end-February, then managed a little counter-trend rally -- really a sort of counter-trend burp. Now they have earnestly resumed their fall as metals outperform stocks, and they point toward much more outperformance the further they fall. They gave a couple of sell signals this week. DiG closed today at 11.65 oz (G$240.83 gold dollars), well below the 200 DMA at 12.02 oz (G$248.48)

Yo! What of the DiS? Silver has lagged gold so the DiS hasn't performed quite as spectacularly, but respectably still. Tumbled today 1.38% (10.47 oz) to 750.28 (S$970.11), a gnat's eyebrow from the 200 DMA (748.51 oz).

Bearings check: Dow in Gold topped (stocks peaked in August 1999) at 44.767 oz (G$925.42) and Silver in June 2001 at 2,573 oz. In 2013 both broke above their long term downtrend lines in a correction, and now they are headed to break below those lines. From peak to the first trough in this bear market for stocks against metal, stocks lost about 85% of their value. They'll lose another 85% before the bear market for stocks ends. Rough guess, mind you.

US dollar index fell again today, 17 basis points (0.2%) to 79.44. The November low, lowest price in a year, was 79.06. If there dollar breaches that support, no safety net appears before, oh, 78. However, the dollar has spent most of 2014 tracing out a falling wedge, which usually but not always ends by reversing upward. However, if it lurches yesterday's low, about 79.28, it might just keep on lurching downward.

Since Europe has a lot more to lose by a war in Ukraine than the US, the euro ought to be dropping like a careless tourist off a cruise ship, but it's not. Yesterday it dropped 0.27% after hitting a new high for the move, then closed lower. Today it rose 0.27% and closed higher, gainsaying any key reversal downward. Seemingly intends to rise, but why remains a mystery.

Again today the yen picked up the safe haven bid and rose 0.49% to 98.73 cents/Y100. 'Twas at this same level as March began but slid, so if it can close higher then it is rallying and not merely trifling with us.

On 14 March 1900 congress passed the Gold Standard Act, allegedly to put the United States on a gold standard, really to try to make the banks' demonetization of silver permanent and demoralize bimetallists. The bill made the gold dollar of the standard of 1834 the "standard unit of value" to which the secretary of the treasury was supposed to maintain all other forms of money at parity The act is another irrefutable argument against government issuing any money at all, since the whole history of government issued money is a parade of corruption, stupidity, confiscation, and market suppression. A government monopoly on money issue, along with legal tender laws, is the tyrant's indispensable tools to rob the people.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, March 13, 2014

Gold Price Needs to Clear $1,375, Looks Very Strong

Gold Price Close Today : 1372.20
Change : 1.90 or 0.14%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.169
Change : -0.159 or -0.75%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.821
Change : 0.572 or 0.89%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01543
Change : -0.000137 or -0.88%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1478.80
Change : 3.10 or 0.21%

Palladium Price Close Today : 778.75
Change : 1.80 or 0.23%

S&P 500 : 1,846.34
Change : -21.86 or -1.17%

Dow In GOLD$ : $242.68
Change : $ -3.82 or -1.55%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.739
Change : -0.185 or -1.55%

Dow in SILVER oz : 760.97
Change : -5.17 or -0.67%

Dow Industrial : 16,108.89
Change : -231.19 or -1.41%

US Dollar Index : 79.610
Change : 0.030 or 0.04%

The GOLD PRICE climbed only $1.90 to $1,372.20; silver lost 15.9 cents to 2116.9c.

Gold needs to clear $1,375, looks very strong.

The SILVER PRICE broke through its post-February downtrend line today to a new high for the move, but then collapsed and closed lower, below its 200 DMA. Really a lousy performance and first step of a key reversal, but that must be completed by a lower close tomorrow.

The Ukrainian crisis heated up today and money ran for the exits and a safe haven. US dollar index Tanked overnight, hitting a low at 79.28, but over the day traded up to close up two tiny basis points to 79.61. Those Nice Government Men had a close shave today.

Money ran out of the Euro, too, in a nasty one day turn around that probably marks the first step of a key reversal. Euro hit a new high for the move at $1.3958, then sank in one Brobdingnagian step to a low at $1.3845. Closed lower than yesterday, down 0.27% at $1.3868. Another low tomorrow cinches a key reversal downward.

Yen got the safe haven (if a bit radioactive) bid. Rose as fast as the euro plunged, up 0.94% to 98.26 cents/Y100. When trading seems so evidently motivated by crisis, it's a tough question whether any of the gains or losses will stick longer than the crisis' lifespan.

Money ran from stocks today, too. O, WEH! Dow fell 231.19 (1.41%) to 16,108.89. Speak to me, O Eyes, is that true? Yes, below the 20 Dma (16,329.99) and the 50 DMA (16,158.46). This is a grievous, deep wound and will probably continue tomorrow.

S&P was nearly as bad, down 21.86 (1.17%) and below the 20 DMA but not the 50 (1,829).

Dow in metals plummeted. DiS ended down 0.74% to 760.75 oz, touching the 20DMA. Dow in Gold tanked, down 1.79% to 11.74 oz AND below the 200 DMA (12.02 oz). A portentous break.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, March 12, 2014

The Gold Price Busted Through the Ceiling Stop Waiting and Buy

Gold Price Close Today : 1,370.30
Change : 23.80 or 1.77%

Silver Price Close Today : 21.33
Change : 0.54 or 2.62%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.249
Change : -0.537 or -0.83%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.0156
Change : 0.0001 or 0.84%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,475.70
Change : 11.70 or 0.80%

Palladium Price Close Today : 776.95
Change : 6.65 or 0.86%

S&P 500 : 1,868.15
Change : 0.52 or 0.03%

Dow In GOLD$ : $246.50
Change : $ -4.53 or -1.81%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.92
Change : -0.22 or -1.81%

Dow in SILVER oz : 766.12
Change : -20.61 or 0.29%

Dow Industrial : 16,339.76
Change : -11.49 or -2.62%

US Dollar Index : 79.58
Change : -0.18 or -0.23%

Listen, this is it. The GOLD PRICE kept bumping up against that $1,355 ceiling, & after the third knock busted through. Stop waiting: BUY. This will run at least to $1,435 before it takes any weighty break.
The gold price today surged enough to hit its top Bollinger Band, but notice that it has been tickling that line & crossing it all through the February rise, strong, tugging at the reins, wanting to run.

The SILVER PRICE move was larger percentage-wise, but less dramatic otherwise. Even with today's close, barely short of the 20 DMA (2043c) silver remains in a short term downtrend (lower highs and lower lows). I suspect it turned up day before yesterday with a 2061c intraday low, and now it has again o'erleapt its 200 DMA (2098c).

First target for silver is now the February 2218c high, then October's 2309c, but my eyes are on August's high at 2512c. Silver like gold has traded above its post-April 2013 downtrend line, so the rally is on. However, after the blood and grief of a more than two year downward correction, silver and GOLD PRICES must conquer those earlier highs to convince the skeptics. "Bull markets climb a wall of worry."
As with gold, now is the time to buy silver. Remember that often, as precious metals rallies progress, silver begins to outperform gold. We will probably witness that on this occasion, too, considering that we started from a very high GOLD/SILVER RATIO (over 64).

Have y'all ever thought about this? All portfolio & investing theory & lots of economics is based on the "efficient or rational markets" assumption, that is, that markets behave rationally & efficiently because investors behave rationally. All financial media reporting presupposes that: "Investors today turned away from copper based on studies that show prolonged exposure to copper can cause warts."
In fact, how many "rational" people do you know? How many do you know who even rationally pursue their own best interest? I know exactly one, and he stands out because he's the only one nearly rational & he ain't too rational around the edges. Most of mankind most of the time looks like a man hitting himself in the head with a ball peen hammer. He doesn't know WHY, he just can't stop.

So the financial media look at two stories coincident in time -- copper drops, yuan drops -- and act as if investors worldwide suddenly shucked copper because the yuan dropped. I reckon this may not be rational behavior, but the "post hoc, ergo propter hoc" fallacy, namely, "it happened after this so it happened because of this." Suppose a woman gets pregnant every year during winter's coldest time. Does that prove cold weather causes pregnancy?

Y'all, I'm a fool, but I'm not being silly. Markets are so huge that nobody can pinpoint a single cause for their movements. And most investors act more on emotion and tips than on reason; that's why so many lose money. That's why people buy the Japanese yen & drive it up the same day the Bank of Japan announces it will cheapen the yen further. That's why markets sway & swoon when the FOMC meets & mumbles trite and pompous platitudes it hopes will come true. Mercy, that's why people still vote Democratic & Republican after all the proof that these people mean to destroy us!

Does that mean we all become obscurantists & say markets are unknowable? Nope, it means we approach them humbly as mysteries with unknown edges. After identifying long term trends, we invest in those so every twist & turn of adolescent fear & greed doesn't tie us in knots & pick our pockets.
More, we pay attention to what markets are saying, even when we're not sure exactly what it imports. Copper, for instance, often tops before stock markets, and often predicts future economic activity, higher or lower.

Copper hath thrice hit this $3.00 boundary since it peaked early in 2011, itself a warning other commodities would peak later that year. Usually when a market knocks on a door three times, it breaks through at the last knock, as copper appears to be doing. It rings a loud klaxon warning stock investors.
Nothing deterred the rational folks swarming on Nasdaq & Nasdaq 100 today, but the Dow fell a little 11.49 (0.07%) to 16,339.76. S&P500 blew hot & cold out of both sides of its mouth by rising 0.52 or 0.03% to 1,868.15. Both are hovering above their 20 DMA, tripwire of a decline.
Today's performance in the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver shredded all notions that they might rally further. DiG plunged 1.6% to 11.92 oz (G$246.40 gold dollars) and dunked the DiG's below the 200 DMA (12.02). Other indicators are turning down.

Dow in silver dropped 2.3% to 765.06 oz (S$989.17 silver dollars) and draws close to the 20 DMA (761.94 oz). Looks like the end of the upward correction.

US Dollar Index lost 18 basis points or 0.23% to 79.58. It remains within the nose cone of a falling wedge, and thus the possibility of an upward reversal, but I have to ask, What is the market telling us? That it doesn't like dollars.

Across the icy Atlantic, the euro rose 0.34% to $1.3908, a new high for the move. That close above resistance suggests the euro will climb to $1.4250, or higher. Yen felt peppy today, too, rising 0.23% to 97.38 c/Y100. Still below its 20 DMA, still in a downtrend.

All fiat currencies issued by central banks are headed for history's dumpster. Right there among the mashed grapefruit rinds and rotting potato peels and fragrant spoiled hamburger and used Kleenexes.
Gold did it today, blasting up $23.80 (1.77%) to $1,370.30. Silver beat gold, rising 2.62% (54.4 cents) to 2132.8c.

Some days you just can't win. About 3 years ago we found a Jersey bull calf, Fry, descended from a great grass-fed New Zealand bull. He's never been any trouble and has faithfully done his job. This morning he was just fine when my son Wright fed the cows some hay and alfalfa, but when another son, Justin, went by after noon, he was four-hooves-up in the pasture, wildly bloated.

We even went out there to make sure it wasn't some improbable cow prank, but he was dead. Stone cold dead.

A veterinarian friend in another state helped put together what must have happened. Wright put out alfalfa for him, and as the biggest animal Fry must have pushed the cows away and gorged on alfalfa. But alfalfa & clover are legumes, & can cause frothy bloat in cows, tiny bubbles in the cow's stomach that won't burst, so that the animal suddenly bloats and dies.

Even if someone had warned me about it -- and we knew about bloat from clover -- I wouldn't have thought that was enough alfalfa to hurt him. What you don't know CAN kill you, or your animals.
"The Lord gave, the Lord hath taken away. Blessed be the name of the Lord."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.