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Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The Gold Price Must Climb Over $1,305 to Confirm Last Week's Lows

30-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,295.60-0.40-0.03%
Silver Price, $/oz19.12-0.37-1.89%
Gold/Silver Ratio67.7651.2631.90%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0148-0.0003-1.86%
Platinum Price1,426.60-3.50-0.24%
Palladium Price812.654.600.57%
S&P 5001,883.955.620.30%
Dow16,580.8445.470.27%
Dow in GOLD $s264.550.810.31%
Dow in GOLD oz12.800.040.31%
Dow in SILVER oz867.2418.752.21%
US Dollar Index79.56-0.33-0.41%

The GOLD PRICE fell to $1,284.90, but recovered to end the day only 40 cents lower at $1,295.60. Silver traded as low as 1908 cents and ended down 36.9 cents at 1911.9c.

Sorry I missed sending y'all a commentary on Monday and Tuesday, but I was finishing up my monthly Moneychanger newsletter for paid subscribers, then yesterday evening had to drive up to Cookeville to pick up some hardy kiwi plants.

On a three day chart the GOLD PRICE today made a double bottom with yesterday's $1,386.10 low and recovered nearly to yesterday's close. This ain't great, but it's not Waterloo, either. Large bets had been placed on what the Fed would say today, by which I mean large shorts. They drove the gold price down, but couldn't keep it down. That recovery is positive, but not closing above yesterday is not. We'll just have to see how it shakes out tomorrow. Notice also that the last two days' lows were higher than last week's lows. The gold price, however, has balked at $1,305 and must climb over that to confirm last week's lows.

The SILVER PRICE, ahh, the silver price. Low today was higher than last week's, but chart looks crummy. Off last week's dramatic bounce silver hit the downtrend line and 20 day moving average, but couldn't hold on above either one. Now silver must cross 2000c to regain credibility. Ratio rose today to 67.765:1, more proof of silver's relative weakness. All of that, of course, may be construed as an argument to buy silver rather than gold right now.

By the way, silver did make a double bottom today, at 11:30 and 3:30 p.m. Not much, but . . .

Folks, consider this. Things are far too calm, far too quiet, which means complacency reigns universally. And complacency cometh before a crisis. I can't help it, I'm suspicious, because I just don't believe things are that good, certainly not good enough to warrant complacency.

But then, I'm only a nacheral born durned fool from Tennessee.

All kind of news broke while I was away. I heard on National Proletarian Radio that President Obama is levying sanctions on Los Angeles to keep Donald Sterling out of the Ukraine and Russians out of the NBA.

And I had disremembered the FOMC meeting announcement today, so as I was travelling I checked the gold and silver prices I was dismayed to see them lower. When I found out about the FOMC announcement I was relieved, because the up and down was merely more of the same moronism that inevitably results from central banking and government economic meddling. Thus, it is to be ignored as feckless fiddling with things at the margin.

Truth is, if the FOMC blarney cannon shot doesn't have any more affect than today's, they need bigger shells or grapeshot. Our Masters at the Fed were very careful not to say much except that they would taper another $10 billion a month. Before the FOMC pontificated, first quarter economic statistics had already appeared in surprising (to the experts) weakness. That had taken the dollar down, and supports the conclusion that the Fed must suppress interest rates longer. Bingo, down came the 10 year Treasury note yield, which brought down the interest rate differential between the buck and the other two disgusting scrofulous fiat currencies and in turn sent the euro and yen up. Not even stocks were much moved by the FOMC's decree, rising about 0.3%. Here's more detail.

Stock indices rose across the board, but not much. Dow climbed 45.47 (0.3%) to 16,580.84 while the S&P500 scaled 5.62 (0.3%). That was enough to close both slightly above their reigning downtrend lines, but whether that's meaningful or not we'll see tomorrow. May's the time I expect the last peak in stocks.

Dow in metals aren't saying much. Dow in Silver has formed a bearish rising wedge, but is still moving up. Rose 1% today to 849.27 oz (S$1,098.05 silver dollars). Dow in gold remains in a downtrend, but is blowing hot and cold out of both sides of its mouth.

US dollar index fell 0.42% or 33 basis points to 79.56. It has nearly reached again the April low at 79.385. Falling through that would be cosmic bad taste, and take the dollar much lower. Euro and the yen just rose the same amount the dollar fell. Yen ended at 97.92, up 0.49% and the euro at $1.3870, up 0.43%.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, April 29, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Down $2.70 at $1,296.30

29-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,296.30-2.70-0.21%
Silver Price, $/oz19.49-0.10-0.51%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.520.200.30%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0150-0.0000-0.30%

Franklin didn't post commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, April 28, 2014

The Gold Price Closed at $1,299 Losing $1.80 by Comex Close

28-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,299.00-1.80-0.14%
Silver Price, $/oz19.59-0.10-0.52%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.320.260.39%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0151-0.0001-0.39%

Franklin didn't post commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, April 25, 2014

After the Gold Prices Dramatic Reversal Yesterday it Gained Another $10.20 to $1,300.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1,300.70
Gold Price Close 17-Apr-14 : 1,293.40
Change : 7.30 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.691
Silver Price Close 17-Apr-14 : 19.586
Change : 10.50 or 0.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 66.056
Gold Silver Ratio 17-Apr-14 : 66.037
Change : 0.019 or 0.0%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01514
Silver Gold Ratio 17-Apr-14 : 0.01514
Change : 0.00000 or 0.0%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 260.03
Dow in Gold Dollars 17-Apr-14 : $ 262.25
Change : -2.22 or -0.8%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 12.579
Dow in Gold Ounces 17-Apr-14 : 12.686
Change : -0.11 or -0.8%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 830.91
Dow in Silver Ounces 17-Apr-14 : 837.77
Change : -6.86 or -0.8%

Dow Industrial : 16,361.46
Dow Industrial 17-Apr-14 : 16,408.54
Change : -47.08 or -0.3%

S&P 500 : 1,863.40
S&P 500 17-Apr-14 : 1,864.85
Change : -1.45 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index : 79.830
US Dollar Index 17-Apr-14 : 79.940
Change : -0.11 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,422.80
Platinum Price Close 17-Apr-14 : 1,428.10
Change : -5.30 or -0.4%

Palladium Price Close Today : 811.45
Palladium Price Close 17-Apr-14 : 807.35
Change : 4.10 or 0.5%

Over the last week silver and GOLD PRICE moved barely up, while stocks moved down, but the closing numbers don't quite tell the whole story.

After yesterday's dramatic reversals gold gained another $10.20 to end at $1,300.70, barely above the 200 DMA ($1,300.31). Silver gained only 3/10 cent to close Comex at 1969.1. Well, it ain't much, but it's a higher close, so both the silver and GOLD PRICE confirmed their key reversals yesterday.

On its monthly and weekly charts gold has broken out upside through its intermediate term downtrend, but sill must conquer the downtrend line from 2011. On the daily chart gold yesterday spiked through its 100 day moving average to $1,268.40, then immediately reversed to close the day higher, and closed today higher as well.

The SILVER PRICE reversal yesterday with a spike to 1893c was even starker, but today's tiny gain left silver mumbling out of both sides of its mouth. It ran today smack up against its downtrend line and the 20 DMA (1978c).

Silver and gold have both fulfilled their downside correction targets and smartly re-bounded. For all its lagging, silver did revisit its downtrend line from April 2013, the line it punched up through in February. That also points to a completed correction. Silver has broken to the upside on the weekly chart, but not yet on the monthly, though it's close.

I'll try to draw the conclusion in a few words: buy silver and gold. Now.

While the world verges on war in Ukraine, the US dollar index and gold don't seem to care much, but stocks appear uneasy. O strange old world!

The US dollar index seems to have flunked the test this week at its coincident 20 and 50 day moving averages (both at 80.02). It reached up there twice, then flaked and fell back below 80. Fell today 5 basis points (0.06%) to 79.83. What might have been a double bottom March and April with the last at 79.39 appears not to have been. Expect the dollar to drop yet more.

Despite the dollar's woes, the euro has remained in an overall downtrend since March. Yes, tis above its 20 DMA ($1.3800) and 50 DMA ($1.3796, but showing little perkiness or appetite to climb mountains. Nor does the yen long to move higher. It closed today up 0.16% at 97.90, but still within its slightly declining three month range.

Ten year treasury yield fell today, 0.82% to 2.666% and fell for the week, back to its bottom channel line. Not much life.

Copper has bounced back from its brush with death at $2.877. Although it has climbed smartly since mid-March, today's close at $3.12 remains below the downtrend line at $3.15. A close clean above $3.32 will finally confirm copper has no intent of dropping further. Which is copper, a prognosticator for stocks or harbinger for commodities? I lean to the latter as what concerns us more here. Copper is probably the last of the metals to turn up.

Dow nervously dropped 140.19 (0.85%) today to 16,361.46, enough to turn it down 0.3% for the week. S&P500 dropped 15.21 (0.81%) to 1,863.40, barely lower for the week.

Stock charts are singing a dirge. Nasdaq Comp shows what appears to be a 5-month head and shoulders, S&P might be showing the same but definitely is in a month-long downtrend. Dow has the best chart, and it looks like a big double top. Everything is set up for a final high in May.

Dow in silver dropped a tad today, 0.2% to close the week at 838.03 (S$1,083.51 silver dollars). Appears to have topped, but needs to confirm still. Dow in Gold fell 0.78% to 12.69 oz (G$252.33 gold dollars). More confirmation needed to declare it reversed downward.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, April 24, 2014

The Gold Price Gained $6.30 to $1,290.50 Ending the February Correction

24-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,290.506.300.49%
Silver Price, $/oz19.680.251.30%
Gold/Silver Ratio65.568-0.526-0.80%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01530.00010.80%
Platinum Price1,408.104.900.35%
Palladium Price802.5516.302.07%
S&P 5001,878.613.220.17%
Dow16,501.650.000.00%
Dow in GOLD $s264.33-1.30-0.49%
Dow in GOLD oz12.79-0.06-0.49%
Dow in SILVER oz838.41-10.87-1.28%
US Dollar Index79.87-0.08-0.10%

The GOLD PRICE gained $6.30 to $1,290.50 while silver added 25.2 cents to 1968.2c.

These numbers tell no tale without their ranges. The SILVER PRICE today a little before 8:30 a.m. New York time spiked to a low at 1896.8c, fulfilling that 1900c target. It tarried but an hour, then shot clean up to 1980c by 11:30, and remained the rest of the day above 1960c. Not only does this fulfill my awaited target, yea, it also makes the first half of a key reversal (break to new low with a higher close for the day). All that is needed now is a close tomorrow higher than today's.

The GOLD PRICE followed the same pattern, with an early low at $1,268.90. That's a new low for this move, and close enough to the $1,270 target to fit. Add to that a higher close for the day, a rebound of $22.50, and you'll begin to savor the strength.

Tomorrow both silver and gold prices need to close higher to confirm those key reversals, but I reckon they will.

That's it, waiting's over. That should be the bottom of the correction that began after the February high.

Okay, y'all listen up now. Most days nothing much happens. The world spins on about like it always has, and markets nudge a little one way or the other.

Here's a surprise: Dow Jones Industrial Average closed today unchanged at 16,501.65, something that only rarely occurs. Today's range was wider, top and bottom, than yesterday's, but the Dow gained nought. S&P500 rose 3.22 (0.17%) to 1,878.61. Although the S&P500 rose, it bumpeth only against its top trading channel line, and breaketh not out. Nasdaq Comp looketh none too perky, but did manage to close above its 20 day moving average.

Yea, but look, gaze steadily, stare at the Dow measured in metals. Dow in gold dropped 0.24% to 12.76 oz (G$263.77 gold dollars), not a great change from yesterday but baby step by baby step painting out a double top and probable reversal. Lo, the Dow in Silver sank 1.6% to 838.16 oz (S$1,083.68 silver dollars). Did the top for this move occur yesterday? Needs confirming, but the full stochastics turned down yesterday, along with the MACD.

Meanwhile, in the Cloud-Cuckoo Land of fiat national currencies, the US dollar index begins to look like a loser. Mark, it hath tried now thrice to pierce its 50 and 20 DMAs overhead, and hath failed each time. Looks like a SELL, but then, it's looked that way since 1934. Dollar index lost 8 basis points (0.1%) to 79.87. Euro gained 0.8% to $1.3828, and although above its 20 DMA, remains in a downtrend, like a mountebank in a moth-eaten tuxedo. Japanese Yen (is there some other yen?) gained 0.23% to 97.77 cents per 100 yen, but still looks ugly as five miles of bad gravel road.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, April 23, 2014

The Gold Price Added $3.60 Today for a Comex Close at $1,284.20

23-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,284.203.600.28%
Silver Price, $/oz19.430.080.41%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.094-0.084-0.13%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01510.00000.13%
Platinum Price1,403.203.600.26%
Palladium Price786.252.350.30%
S&P 5001,875.39-4.16-0.22%
Dow16,501.65-12.72-0.08%
Dow in GOLD $s265.63-0.95-0.36%
Dow in GOLD oz12.85-0.05-0.36%
Dow in SILVER oz849.29-4.12-0.48%
US Dollar Index79.95-0.04-0.05%

The GOLD PRICE added $3.60 today for a Comex close at $1,284.20. Silver closed Comex up 7.9 cents to 1943c.

Ranges today were tiny, the GOLD PRICE range was $8.70 and the SILVER PRICE range was 17 cents, but their gains bring little comfort. The overlapping trading simply doesn't depict a rally, but correction without much conviction or direction. I'm still guessing that the downside risk for the gold price probably isn't more than $14 from here. Silver on 15 April made a low at 1922c, and another on 21 April at 1923c. That might have fulfilled the downside thrust, but we might still witness a V-move to 1900c.

In any event, all that is my anticipating, since neither market has yet flashed a signal it is turning up. Be patient here, but don't go to sleep. I bought a good bit today to balance my own position. I don't think there's too much downside risk here, and I certainly don't want to be short.

Markets are drifting, without much conviction one way or the other. Like a torpid snake, though, that can change any time.

On narrow ranges today stocks turned down, slightly. Dow abdicated 12.72 (0.08%) to a 16,501.65 close. S&P500 dropped 4.16 (0.22%) to close at 1,875.39.

Since markets don't make triple tops (or bottoms) but usually break through that barrier to continue higher, we can probably expect a higher top in stocks. However, the charts don't speak unequivocally. As they rise in seniority from Nasdaq Comp to S&P500 to the Dow, they look better. First two are in downtrends, Dow has moved sideways, yet the overall uptrend says they will move yet higher, unless a breakdown is confirmed. That would require universal closes below the 200 day moving averages.

Dow in gold inched down 0.19% to 12.85 oz (G$265.63 gold dollars). Dow in Silver hooked down 0.232% to 848.94 oz (S$1,098.91 silver dollars). That probably does not mark the top, although yesterdays 851.70 oz was awfully close to the 853.66 oz (S$1,103.72) December 2013 high. Yet the high lieth not far away.

US DOLLAR INDEX fell 4 basis points, nothing really, but it has been repulsed trying to climb above the 20 and 50 day moving averages, to its shame revealing its weakness. One of these days the dollar will do something, but probably not tomorrow. Drifting sideways.

Euro rose a little today, 0.8% to $1.3817, but not enough to break above its downtrend line. Not enough to sneeze at, in fact.

Yen is tippy-toeing back and over its 50 DMA. Rose 0.1% to 97.57 cents per Y100, going nowhere.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, April 22, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $7.40 Today and Closed on the Comex at $1,280.60

15-Apr-14
22-Apr-14
Change
% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,300.001,280.60-19.40-1.5
Silver Price, $/oz.19.47819.351-0.127-0.7
Gold/silver ratio66.74266.177-0.565-0.8
Silver/gold ratio0.01500.01510.00010.9
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)258.60266.587.983.1
Dow in gold ounces12.5112.900.393.1
Dow in Silver ounces834.92853.4118.492.2
Dow Industrials16,262.5616,514.37251.811.5
S&P5001,842.981,879.5536.572.0
US dollar index79.8979.990.100.1
Platinum Price1,444.101,399.60-44.50-3.1
Palladium Price796.15783.90-12.25-1.5

Since I took off during Holy Week and Easter Monday, I'll give y'all a report today for the last week, which may set our minds straight for the rest of the week.

The GOLD PRICE lost $7.40 today and closed Comex at $1,280.60. Silver gained -- get ready -- one cent to close at 1935.1 cents.

Silver and gold price momentum is down, clearly, but without a lot of conviction. That is, they are running out of downward steam. A ratio today at 66.177 shows that the SILVER PRICE has played the weak sister.

I expect the GOLD PRICE might hit $1,270 before it turns and silver 1900c. Dow below silver must not drop below 1890c nor gold below $1,260. Clear rally confirmations occur when gold betters $1,331.40 and silver 2050c.

Think of silver and gold (and stocks) as a huge bus turning -- it's a slow, tedious business. Unless prices gainsay it, my operating interpretation remains that the June - December lows constituted a double bottom, and silver and gold won't again drop below those prices.

Before I start on markets, I've got to hack up a bone. This morning I was driving from my home (The Shoe) to the office torturing myself by listening to National Pompous Radio, a.k.a., National Proletarian Radio. As I listened to their advertisement ( it couldn't properly be called a newscast) for extending early childhood education, a.k.a., pre-pre-pre-kindergarten, I realized that every single clause was a propaganda lie. Yes, it was all outright lies, presented as if it were truth. They claimed that institutionalizing little children at an earlier age would somehow pay "benefits." (Remember how much you liked going to school as an intimidated six year old? Imagine how much more fun that would be as a 4 year old.) They called these expenditures of tax funds extorted at gunpoint from citizens "investing." They called all this "free" when clearly somebody must pay for it. Every claim was manifestly untrue as a matter of fact.

All this is presented without every asking, indeed, to avoid enabling anyone to ask, the threshold question, Is any of this necessary? Is public education (really "state-run child indoctrination force-paid by taxpayers") really necessary?

Why is it a crime for private people to kidnap children and indoctrinate them, but not for the state?

Then to pour salt in my bleeding intellectual wounds, they call this "democracy." But then again, maybe that's the ONLY true thing they said.

Hack, hack! Okay, that bone's out of my throat, let's move to markets.

Stepping back form the charts a little, the silver and gold rally that began the year has cycled downward and stocks that were falling have turned up. Play this out against the backdrop of a probable double bottom (June 2013 - Dec 2013) closing the long correction in silver and gold, and a 300 year cyclical top coming in stocks probably in May. In monetary terms the Fed since 2008 has roughly quadrupled the US money supply, but has managed to (1) make the banks balance sheets whole, the true aim of Quantitative Easing and (2) quarantine most of the inflation out of consumer prices and into asset prices (stocks) and bank reserves. By manipulating stocks higher by inflation, the Fed has set the stage for a worse crash to come, and enormously higher silver and gold prices. Currency markets are drifting sideways in broad ranges, which probably reflects the terror of the Nice Government Men and central bank criminals. Above all things, they want stability.

But the trump card in the reasoning process that tries to make sense of all this is, WHAT HAS CHANGED? WHAT IS ABOUT TO CHANGE? What voice of reason is calling for economic, government-budget, monetary, or financial market reform? Where is that Solon who will straighten this out? He ain't in the US congress, and he ain't in the European parliament, and if he's anywhere he's sure enough well camouflaged. As long as a cause continues, it begets the same outcome. The causes have not changed, so the outcome will not change. That puts the world's strongest powers -- governments and central banks -- squarely on the side of silver and gold investors, because they have proven through crisis after crisis that they will inflate until they die, and inflation drives silver and gold higher.

Now in the shorter term . . .

After a brutal correction stocks are approaching again their last highs. May could see them exceed those old highs, but the end of stocks draweth nigh, and 'twill be bloody.

In the last week the Dow rose 1.5%, the S&P500 2%. Dow today rose 65.12 (0.4%) to 16,514.37. S&P500 climbed 7.66 (0.41% to 1,879.55.

The last week's stock strength and metals weakness has played hob with the Dow in Gold and Dow in silver. Thanks to lagging silver the Dow in Silver has risen nearly to its high for the move seen at December's end, 853.15 oz. Today it closed at 851.70 oz (s$1,101.19 silver dollars). It appears to be in the last leg of its rise, and could easily rise to a new high for this move, say, 870 oz (S$1,124.85).

Dow in Gold chart offers a different pattern. From December to the March low, the Dow in gold fell from 13.8 oz to 11.62, then recovered by 1 April to 12.92, about 2/3 of the fall before. It fell again, to 12.16 oz in mid-April, and now has rallied today to 12.87 oz (G$266.05 gold dollars). I expect it will rise a bit further, but not to a new high.

In the last 12 days the US dollar index has fallen nearly to the last low, then recovered. Right now it's stymied at the confluence of the 20 and 50 day moving averages (80.07 and 80.06), staring at 'em like a calf staring at a new gate. After rising six trading days, the dollar fell back today 5 basis points to 79.99. Basically the buck has been range-trading since August, but in the last two months the range has narrowed and weakened.

The manic-depressive euro has been Range-trading, too, but hasn't been able to make good its upside escape. Today at $1.3805 it's above its 20 and 50 DMAs, but within a downtrend of lower highs and lower lows. Nothing to cheer about there.

Yen has been perfectly range bound, 99.24 - 96.05, in a slightly declining channel since 1 February. Presently it is crumpling yet again.

Recall that all the central banks' and the US government's grand plans hang upon one slender hook: suppressed interest rates. 10 days ago it looked as if the 10 year treasury note yield would break down, but it caught and scrabbled its way out of danger. Today it closed 2.726%, up 0.18%. Last June it broke out to the upside, and although it lapsed into a consolidating range the rest of the year, the longer trend points up. Higher interest rates will tear all those grand plans off the hook and shred them.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, April 17, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $9.10 Closing at $1,293.40

17-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,293.40-9.70-0.74%
Silver Price, $/oz19.60-0.04-0.19%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.00-0.37-0.55%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01510.00010.55%

Franklin wont be publishing commentary over Easter, he will return Tuesday.

Y'all have a blessed Easter celebration!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, April 16, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Higher at $1,303.10

16-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,303.103.100.24%
Silver Price, $/oz19.630.140.74%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.37-0.33-0.50%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01500.00010.50%

Franklin wont be publishing commentary over Easter, he will return Tuesday.

Y'all have a blessed Easter celebration!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, April 15, 2014

The Gold Price Dropped $27.20 Closing at $1,300

15-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,300.00-27.20-2.05%
Silver Price, $/oz19.48-0.52-2.61%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.7420.3790.57%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0150-0.0001-0.57%
Platinum Price1,444.10-22.70-1.55%
Palladium Price796.15-15.60-1.92%
S&P 5001,842.9812.570.69%
Dow16,262.5689.320.55%
Dow in GOLD $s258.606.692.66%
Dow in GOLD oz12.510.322.66%
Dow in SILVER oz834.9226.223.24%
US Dollar Index79.890.060.08%

The GOLD PRICE dropped $27.20 (2.1%) to $1,300 while the SILVER PRICE erased 52.1 cents to close Comex at 1947.8c.

For the gold price, two outcomes are possible. First is a return to or near the April low ($1,277.40). Second is a drop to a lower low, $1,240 - $1,260. Yet a third possible outcome is that the June and December lows were not a double bottom and one further drop may come. I account that the least likely, and look for a low here by the end of the week, but I'm no more'n a nacheral born durnd fool from Tennessee, so what do I know?

Silver and GOLD PRICES have come unsynchronized. Silver's drop today wrecked the 1960c support, and sets the stage for a spike to next support about 1897c. This should come fast, next three or so days.

You'd think that an institution charged with promoting the gold industry would produce reports that at least cast the best light on gold's prospects. You'd think wrong, if you're thinking about the World Gold Council. They've been negative on gold for, oh, the last 14 years or so. Today they issued a report that contained a nugget about Chinese business using physical gold as collateral for bank credit ($40 bn worth) but they managed to tease a gloomy forecast even out of this inventive monetary use. That and bad economic news out of China appeared to be the catalyst for gold's drop today.

But when the drop is ready, the cause appears. That fall was likely already in the market, and the report, plus jitters over the first anniversary of the April Massacre in gold and silver last year, furnished an excuse. I had been thinking that the gold price had possibly completed a three leg (A-B-C) correction, but clearly another leg remains. That began today.

Stocks recovered a bit today. Dow Closed at 16,262.56, up 89.2 (0.6%) and even jumped over its 50 DMA. S&P500 lifted 12.37 (0.7%) to 1,842.98, but not above its 50 DMA. Nasdaq Comp nearly touched its 200 DMA at 3,942.51 when it hit a low of 3,946.03, then turned up. Did that surprise anybody, that buyers were lurking at the 200 DMA?

Stocks have suffered brutal technical damage. I suspect we will look back and see the early -2014 new all time highs as the peaks in stocks, although I still expect one last peak, maybe lower, maybe higher, in May.

Although the US Dollar index rose only 6 basis points (0.7%) to 79.89, clearly money has flown into US treasuries because they are higher and the yield on the 10 year treasury is trying to break down, indeed, has broken down. Copper fell off the cliff with the bad news out of China, and closed at $2.99. Nasty break. The other scabrous, disgusting fiat currencies did nothing today, and the Central banking criminals were quiet.

Y'all keep your heads. Lift your eyes to the horizon. In the next few days the market will hand you a superb buying opportunity in silver and gold. Get locked and loaded.

Please remember I will be away the rest of the week attending a grazing seminar. I won't be sending commentaries, but will return on Easter Tuesday.

Y'all have a blessed Easter celebration!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, April 14, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Up $8.60 at $1,327.20

14-Apr-14 Price Change % Change
Gold Price, $/oz 1,327.20 8.50 0.64%
Silver Price, $/oz 20.01 0.06 0.32%
Gold/Silver Ratio 66.33 0.21 0.32%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.0150 -0.00 -0.32%



Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, April 11, 2014

The Gold Price Gained $15.50 this Week Ending at $1,303.20

4-Apr-1411-Apr-14Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,303.201,318.7015.501.2
Silver Price, $/oz.19.92719.9330.0060.0
Gold/silver ratio65.39966.1570.7581.2
Silver/gold ratio0.01530.0151-0.0002-1.1
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)260.34251.23-9.11-3.5
Dow in gold ounces12.5912.15-0.44-3.5
Dow in Silver ounces823.64804.03-19.61-2.4
Dow Industrials16,412.7116,026.75-385.96-2.4
S&P5001,865.091,815.69-49.40-2.6
US dollar index80.5679.57-0.99-1.2
Platinum Price1,449.401,461.6012.200.8
Palladium Price791.00807.0516.052.0

The GOLD PRICE backed down $1.40 (0.7%) today to $1,318.70, while that rascal silver gave up 14.5 cents (0.1$) to 1993.3.

Gold's loss signifieth nothing, as it remains above its 200 ($1,298), 50 ($1,314), and 20 (1,311.25) day moving averages, as well as support/resistance at roughly $1,318. Every indicator I watch points higher, so why am I gnawing my nails? Gold's moving slowly and that scoundrel silver won't climb up high enough to confirm gold's move. Of course, that is easily explained by the weakness in stocks, but still . . .

The GOLD PRICE weekly chart shows upward bias, too, and gold stands above its 18 week MA ($1,284.43) and 50 week MA ($1,312.79) and barely above its downtrend line from August 2011. All burners lit.

The SILVER PRICE actually fell back from its 20 DMA (2007c) today and closed below it. 2015c keeps stopping it. In fact, silver needs to throw a leg over 2050c and run. Yes, yes, all the indicators point higher, but this is awfully slow and trying.

Back off and review the last year. The gold price must better its $1,434 peak from last August, then climb over $1,550 where it was clobbered last April. Silver needs to beat its recent 2218c high, then its 2512c August high, and then 225c where it fell off a year ago.

Until gainsaid, the double bottom in June and December says silver and gold prices won't drop any lower, and that they have begun their next leg up. Bull markets always climb a wall of worry, so y'all ought to expect that now. Meanwhile gold and silver's best friends remain the Federal Reserve, world central banks, and the yankee government since their policies are bound to send them higher.

Wall Street bled and bled this week, and no bandaids are in sight, let alone tourniquets. US dollar index broke, too, while silver and gold held up and the white metals (platinum and palladium) also gained. Nothing normal about this situation, and a stock market rout always carries in its bosom the threat of contagion to other markets. 2008 was not so long ago.

Stocks had their worst week since memory runneth not to the contrary, and today only opened more blood vessels. Technically the damage astounds me.

Dow lost 385.96 points this week or 2.4%, 143.47 points today (0.89%) 7 closed at 16,026.75. That's 3.3% lower than the high close on 3 April.

Damage doesn't stop there. Dow closed today beneath its 50 day moving average ((16,172) -- 20 DMA (16,331.25) was left behind yesterday. Recall that in November last year the Dow "threw over" its upper boundary line. Today it crossed beneath it again, and for good measure punched thru the bottom Bollinger Band.

February's low was 15,340.89. The Dow could fall much, much further as

Don't overlook the Nasdaq Composite. It's lost 8.3% since its downtrend began on 5 March. Since 2 April it has lost 6.5%. It, too, languisheth far below its 20 and 50 DMA, and treadeth not far from its 200 DMA (3,936.25).

Then there's the S&P500. Down 2.6% this week, it lost 17.39 (0.9%) today to end at 1,815.69. 200 DMA stands at $1,761.43 and the last (February) low at 1,737.92.

Why do I mention the 200 DMA? In a rising market the price spends most of its time ABOVE the 200 DMA. From time to time in large corrections it will re-visit its 200 DMA, and wide knowledge of this fact means that investors will wait to buy there, and thus support the market. A bfreak below the 200 DMA is very bad juju.

This is a rout, like First Manassas. The blue army is running back to Washington and throwing away rifle and knapsack as they flee. Mark, however: it is not impossible for stocks to return and make one last high in May.

Dow in Silver dropped 0.54% today (4.36 oz) to 802.94 oz (S$1,038.14 silver dollars) in what appears to be a downtrend renewed after the correction from March through 1 April. Dow in Gold has really tanked. Dropped another 0.91% today to 12.16 oz (G$251.37 gold dollars) and skidded to a stop smack atop the 200 DMA. Bottom of that correction was 11.62 oz (G$240.21) so the DiG has not far to travel to confirm unequivocally a new downleg.

US dollar index experienced a Niagara week, and waterfalls don't flow up. Gained 10 basis points today to end at 79.57. Stinks. Sits below its 20 and 50 DMA, but won't confirm a new debacle until it closes below 79. Euro has been the chief beneficiary of the dollar's woes, but is now stuck below its last peak. Ended today flat at $1.3876. Yen has met its major downtrend line and top of its 2 month trading range. Must fish or cut bait or row back to the dock. Flat at 98.42 cents/Y100. Could escape skyward.

I watch the Philadelphia Bank Stock index divided by Gold because that reveals which way the investing public's confidence is leaning. The spread is a fraction, with the bank stock index as the numerator and the gold price as denominator. Thus when gold is rising faster than the Bank Stock Index the denominator is growing faster than the numerator so the graph falls. Voilà, chart is here: http://bit.ly/1sOiOAy

This spread peaked early in January, sank with the gold rally/stock correction into end-February, rose as stocks rallied and gold corrected, and since 1 April has cascaded down to close at its 200 DMA today. It has twice already reached this point in March, not a hopeful sign. This suggests investors appetite for risk and confidence in financial markets is dropping as they adopt the motto, "In gold we trust, not banks."

Another measure of dropping confidence or panic, call it which you will, is the yield on the 10 year treasury note. It has also looked like Iguaçu Falls lately, and has even fallen below its uptrend line to 2.619%. Bear in mind that yields (interest rates) fall as bonds rise, and bonds rise because there is more demand for the safety they offer. Sizeable shift like this rolls snake-eyes for stocks.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, April 10, 2014

The Gold Price Gained $14.6 or 1.1 Percent Today to Close Comex at $1,320.10

10-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,320.1014.601.12%
Silver Price, $/oz20.090.321.62%
Gold/Silver Ratio65.71-0.33-0.55%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0152-0.000-0.50%
Platinum Price1,452.0015.001.04%
Palladium Price788.005.20.66%




The GOLD PRICE gained $14.6 or 1.1% today to close Comex at $1,320.10. Silver jumped 1.6% or 32.3 cents to 2007.8 cents. Ratio dropped to 65.749

The GOLD PRICE is behaving as it should, climbing today through the next resistance level, about $1,318. The SILVER PRICE, frankly, stank. It rose to 2040c (above the magic 2015c) and poked its head through the downtrend line, then fell back to close below the 20 DMA (2015c). What giveth? MACD just shouted "BUY!" for both today.

Proving once again there the world holds even BIGGER fools than a nacheral born durned fool from Tennessee, the Greek government's bond auction today raised about $4 billion, $500 more than the original target, and bids for $23.6 billion were received. I reckon they sold it at the 5.3% they wanted to pay, but didn't see that reported. Buying these bonds nearly equals, but is not nearly as good as, loaning a clubhouse full of drunks money to buy cases of whiskey.

Blood flowed on Wall Street today, spurting in bright red arterial bursts. Russell 2000 plunged 2.78%, Nasdaq tumbled 3.1%, Nasdaq-100 sank 3.13%, Dow dropped 1.62% and S&P500 lost 2.1%.

Dow closed at 16,170.22, 266.96 points lighter than yesterday and turning decisively down. Not up, down. S&P500 lost 39.1, a massive 2.1%. This is moving past puking in the wastebasket and on to contemplating diving out a window.

Dow closed a gnat's whisker above the 50 DMA (16,168.79) and not far from the long term uptrend line it threw over in November. S&P500 closed below its 50 DMA (1,843.34). This could easily reach 1,800.

Dow measured in precious metals today resumed its downward plunge. Closing at 12.25 oz (G$253.23 gold dollars), the Dow in Gold capsized beneath its 20 and 50 DMAs (12.43 and 12.32 oz), locking in its downtrend. Ending at 804.85 oz (S$1,040.21 silver dollars), the Dow in Silver tripped its 20 DMA (811.21 oz). Both have signaled SELL in their MACDs.

The US dollar index has gushed over the cliff with a five (5) day cascade. Closed today down another 0.14% to 79.47. A close below 79 sends it much lower. Dollar's weakness most likely comes from the market's apprehension interest rates will stay low. Euro has shot back nearly to its last peak ($1.3958), and today closed up another 0.25% at $1.3888. Shows you don't have to be healthy at all to be rented if you're the only horse in the livery stable able to stand. Yen continues to gain, up another 0.45% today to 98.52 c/Y100, but needs to gain a tadge more to break out upside

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, April 09, 2014

Silver and Gold Prices Have Posted Their Lows with Gold Closing at $1,305.50

9-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,305.50-3.20-0.24%
Silver Price, $/oz19.76-0.29-1.43%
Gold/Silver Ratio66.0850.7871.20%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0151-0.0002-1.19%
Platinum Price1,437.00-2.80-0.19%
Palladium Price782.806.700.86%
S&P 5001,872.1820.221.09%
Dow16,437.18181.041.11%
Dow in GOLD $s260.273.501.36%
Dow in GOLD oz12.590.171.36%
Dow in SILVER oz832.0520.952.58%
US Dollar Index79.58-0.25-0.31%

Yes, yes, markets and the FOMC conspired to leave me with egg all over my face. Or did they? Silver fell 28.7 cents to 1975.5c while the GOLD PRICE lost $3.20 to $1,305.50. But isn't that the durndest thing: gold's now trading in the aftermarket at $1,314.10 (as I expected) and silver at 1991c. Can anybody spell paint-the-tape?

How did it play out? About New York opening somebody sold lots of gold, driving the price down form $1,308 to $1,301. Traded sideways from 9:00 to 3:00 p.m, gapped down from $1,305 for an instant, then gapped above $1,306 and shot clean to $1,315. Then it backed off but held above $1,310.

SILVER PRICE? Ditto.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO today rose to 66.085, not a helpful sign, and silver persists in lagging behind and not closing above 2015c. Ahh, but today silver's low at 1960c painted a double bottom for the move with an earlier low at 1958c. In fact, silver has four times defended this level. That could be good OR bad.

Still I am persuaded that silver and GOLD PRICES have posted their lows and, once silver gets into gear, will rise. Closes below $1,277 or $1,960 would gainsay that interpretation and open the door to lower prices.

On the remote chance I might be right, y'all ought to buy a little silver and gold.

Today near Pittsburgh a high school student with two kitchen knives stabbed 20 other kids before the principal tackled him. This brings to mind a number of questions: How long before the Obama administration acts to outlaw kitchen knives and end tragic incidents like this forever? Why do people need those assault-style butcher knives in their kitchens anyway, since an ordinary dull table knife will cut everything but meat? Why do people need more than one sharp knife to run a kitchen? Why do knife-nuts need so many knives? Are serrated knives EVER safe?

It also raises another line of questioning: Were there no chairs in that high school that someone could pick up and throw at the knifer? Were the students so trained to call 911 that nobody knew how to protect himself? Was the principal the only person trained to tackle knifers?

Finally the third set of questions, along the "Is it real or Memorex?" line. Did this really happen? If it did really happen, what sort of psychotropic drugs was the knifer taking? What other important thing happening in the world did this event distract our attention from?

If all this weren't crazy enough, ponder this: Greece, yes, the Greek government which is bankrupt from now until, oh, about a.d. 2255, is about to re-enter the bond market to sell 2.5 billion Euros worth of bonds. Top that: they are looking for an interest rate of 5.3% or less. Mean as I sound, I have to say it: any loony who buys those bonds deserves what he will get, which will be another default. The market is not benevolent.

Minutes of the last FOMC meeting were released today and showed that all the members agreed to jettison any objective standards for action. That is, they would keep on tapering and suppressing interest rates until, well, I reckon until it FEELS good. Why this should make stock investors more optimistic -- to learn that the pilot has no idea where he is going and won't know to land when he gets there -- I could not say, but stocks did rise today, although they may have risen for propitious astrological signs, for all I know.

Listen, I know that a 1.1% increase in the Dow (up 181.04 to 16,437.18) and the S&P500 (up 20.22 to 1,872.18 makes everybody feel rich, but today hasn't changed the charts. I'm not saying they won't change and turn up, but this alone didn't do it. It did close both above their 20 DMAs, but still below relevant resistance and coming off a downward key reversal.

Dow in Silver jumped up 2.6% to 831.42 (S$1,074.97). Remains above the 20 DMA but the MACD has signaled sell. Dow in gold rose 1.28% to 12.59 oz (G$260.26 gold dollars). Trying to roll over downward.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, April 08, 2014

Today the Gold Price also Closed Above its 200 Day Moving Average at $1,308.70

8-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,308.7010.700.82%
Silver Price, $/oz20.040.150.76%
Gold/Silver Ratio65.2980.0420.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0153-0.0000-0.06%
Platinum Price1,439.8013.500.95%
Palladium Price776.108.201.07%
S&P 5001,851.966.920.38%
Dow16,256.1410.270.06%
Dow in GOLD $s256.78-1.95-0.75%
Dow in GOLD oz12.42-0.09-0.75%
Dow in SILVER oz811.10-5.64-0.69%
US Dollar Index79.83-0.50-0.62%

Sorry I missed y'all yesterday, all the more since it was a near perfect day for silver and GOLD PRICES.

The GOLD PRICE rose today $10.70 (0.8%) to $1,308.70 while silver held its hand and rose 15.1 cents (0.8%) to 2004.2c.

Gold price's little correction yesterday was picture perfect. Friday it broke through resistance at $1,295 after several tries, but closed below $1,305 resistance at $1,303.20. Yesterday it closed down at $1,298, lower but still holding solidly above $1,295 support, and closed ABOVE $1,305 resistance at $1,308.7.

May I warble further? Today the gold price also closed above its 200 DMA ($1,296.90) and, yet there is more. Gold has now rallied out of the Dec-February upside down head and shoulders, broke through the neckline of that formation in a rally to $1,392.60, corrected back to the neckline for a final kiss good-bye last week, and now 'tis climbing again.

THIS would be the place to buy. Although I have not yet decided yet whether the correction is complete, or whether we will see one more up and down, but I doubt any later leg down will drop lower than what we have seen. Above the 20 DMA lurks at $1,319.82. Crossing that will bring out many more of gold's fair weather friends. The gold price has seen its bottom for a while.

The SILVER PRICE stands a gnat's eyelash from flashing an MACD buy signal, the full stochastic is turning up, rate of change is rising, AND (I'm almost out of breath) it bounced off its post-April 2013 downtrend line at end March. Yet for all in its favor, silver must yet close above 2015c. We ought to witness that tomorrow.

By the way, silver's performance yesterday was as good as gold, with a retreat to support at 1975c and bounce back today.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO today ended at 65.298, and is not dropping from its March peak as quickly as I would like, but what would I do with without something to fret about?

On to stocks, yesterday the Dow dropped only ten points while the S&P500 plunged a massive 20.5 (1.1%). That trashed the S&P500 chart. A two day waterfall took it from 1897.28 to 1845.04. This also was a completed key reversal. Today it cut into but closed above the 50 DMA (1,840.57), and flopped back 6.9 (0.38%) to 1,851.96.

The S&P is breaking down. Thus sayeth its position on the chart thus screameth its key reversal. Unless Wall Street's friends in the Plunge Protection Team, the Nice Government Men, step up quick the blood will be flowing up to the horses bridles.

Off a new all time intraday high on Friday, a push into new high territory, the Dow closed much lower, nearly 1%. That key reversal was confirmed yesterday with another drop and close below the 20 day moving average at 16,245.87. Today it bounced like a dead cat off the pavement, up 10.27 (0.06%). As with the S&P500, the MACD indicator has flashed a big red SELL signal. Much lower prices like ahead.

Dow in Gold has plunged in the last three days and today closed at 12.42 oz (G$256.74 gold dollars). This hints but does not confirm that the correction that began mid March has peaked. DiG is about to cross below its 20 and 50 DMAs. Close below 11.62 oz (G$240.21) takes it below the low of the Dec-March fall.

Dow in Silver dropped 0.93% today to 810.38 oz (S$1,047.76 silver dollars). It hovereth above its 20 DMA (805.93), first tripwire of a decline. MACD has turned down, and full Stochastics are confirming a downturn.

Today currency markets overthrew expectations. The Bank of Japan, contrary to the market's expectation, vowed it would hold off on monetary easing -- central-bank-speak for "inflating" -- in the short term. All the folks short yen promptly puked in their wastebaskets and splurted out orders to cover their short positions. Yen gapped up massively, above its 20 and 50 DMAs, from 97 to 98.5 at the widest. Closed up 1.34% at 98.29 cents/Y100.

Dollar took this news like a rockhammer in the teeth. Dropped a huge 50 basis points or 0.62% to 79.83, wiping out all its gains since mid-March. Considering how the US Dollar has struggled since bottoming in March, and now crashes through its 20 and 50 DMAs, it hath little hope for the future. It appears to have successfully transformed a nascent rally into Waterloo.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.