|Gold Price, $/oz||1,259.40||14.20||1.14%|
|Silver Price, $/oz||16.22||0.59||3.79%|
|Dow in GOLD $s||290.88||-0.58||-0.20%|
|Dow in GOLD oz||14.07||-0.03||-0.20%|
|Dow in SILVER oz||1,092.56||-30.84||-2.75%|
|US Dollar Index||93.99||0.04||0.04%|
Silver did it! Silver closed above 1617¢, at 1622¢, up 24.6¢ (3.8%). Gold only rose $2.70 (1.14%) to $1,259.40, but it rose all the same.
US dollar index has clung so tenaciously to its weakness that suspicious folks, like some nat'ral born durned fools in Tennessee, begin to suspect it's a-happenin' on purpose, that the Nice Government Men are doing it.
Today the dollar index climbed an inconsequential 4 basis points (0.05%) to 93.99. 'Tain't no recovery -- just rallied to the downtrend line.
Wicked Witch of the East Janet Yellen & Barnard O'Bama must be sweating hotdum-dums watching the stock market crumple in an election year. What better way to levitate it than allowing the US dollar to sink?
Y'all understand that, viewed from one angle, price rises when the dollar sinks reflect nothing more than re-pricing at the dollar's newly lower value. Thus, Other Things Being Equal (they ain't never, but listen a minute), if the dollar falls stocks, oil, silver, & gold should rise. The greater question, and the one that requires X-ray vision into circumstances, is whether those markets are gaining MORE than the dollar is losing. Right now, silver & gold ARE.
Appearance for now is that commodities -- not including gold & silver, which are a different class -- after 8 years falling may have put in that bottom we've been expecting in 2016's first half. WTIC troughed on 1 April. Look at the chart, http://schrts.co/Lgqpuw
WTIC began a colossal decline last July from $62.58/bbl to $26.05 in February 2016, a 58% loss. But the chart shows it broke out over that intermediate downtrend line in March, rallied to 42.49 and the 200 day moving average, backed off to the downtrend line again for the final kiss goodbye, and since 1 April has rocketed In the last two days it gapped up and punched through the 200 DMA like Alexander the Great punching through the Persians at Gaugamela. Hard not to see a turnaround and breakout there. Copper has behaved differently, but also has established an uptrend since January. Ditto for the CRM Commodity index.
Is that dollar weakness or inflation market strength? Are the inflation markets reading their crystal ball? Sure looks that way.
Even stocks rose today. Dow added 164.84 (0.94%) to 17,721.25 & the S&P500 rose 19.73 (1.04%) to 2,061.72. Remains in the downtrend ruling since the 1 April highs, lower highs and lower lows. Doubtful today altered that.
Yen tripped and fell 0.58% today, closing at 92.1. Leaves behind what may be an island reversal. Gap down tomorrow would clinch it.
Euro fell 0.22% to $1.1385. Euro doesn't need any encouragement to stumble.
What hath happened since 6 April 2016? In those six days gold gained 3%, the Gold/Silver ratio fell 4.4%, and silver has added 7.8%. Gold/Silver ratio fell another 1.3% today.
What hath silver wrought? It hath closed through that 1600+ barrier, above the last high. Behold, the beautiful chart, http://schrts.co/4wL00t
Backing up in time, the high before this last one was in May 2015 at 17.775¢, so that becomes our Must Exceed target Can silver do it? Counting what I believe I see on the chart, silver could reach 1875¢.
Wait, wait. Silver MUST improve today's close tomorrow. Now that it's got the skeer on, it has to keep the skeer on. No excuses will wash.
Bear ye in mind that when silver crosses 1650¢ it will cross the downtrend line from the April 2011 high. At that point it will attract buyers like picnics attract fire ants.
Gold chart lives here, http://schrts.co/D8N3Nb
While silver takes the lead, it's enough that gold merely keeps advancing. Next hurdle lies at $1,272. Gold is being held down by disbelief right now, but when it pops through $1,272 or $1,288 the disbelief will vanish like morning mist in the July sun, all shorts will run for cover, and gold will be racing with the pedal to the metal.
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.