Silver and Gold Prices Failed to Complete the Second Half of that Key Reversal

Gold Price Close Today : 1377.80
Change : -6.50 or -0.47%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.442
Change : -0.126 or -0.56%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.394
Change : 0.055 or 0.09%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01629
Change : -0.000015 or -0.09%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1458.40
Change : -26.20 or -1.76%

Palladium Price Close Today : 747.70
Change : -2.30 or -0.31%

S&P 500 : 1,669.16
Change : 2.87 or 0.17%

Dow In GOLD$ : $230.87
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.36%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.168
Change : 0.363 or 3.36%

Dow in SILVER oz : 685.66
Change : 6.15 or 0.90%

Dow Industrial : 15,387.58
Change : 52.30 or 0.34%

US Dollar Index : 83.83
Change : 0.075 or 0.09%

Silver and GOLD PRICES failed to complete the second half of that key reversal. The SILVER PRICE lost 12.6 cents (0.47%) today to 2244.2c while the gold price lost $6.50 (0.56%) to $1,377.80.

That's certainly disappointing, but does not necessarily mean that silver and gold prices have not made their bottoms. Both charts still look good, and especially those turnarounds yesterday. I had to buy a little today.

I can't wholly rule out another plunge down for both metals, but for now their bias is upward.

Isn't the power of intimidation amazing? That's one reason that government always wants to makes sure that you have a guilty conscience. Why? Because a guilty man is so easy to control. Today if any one stands up for his rights -- real rights, not manufactured ones -- or controverts the official government or media or academia line, why, then he's an extremist or a terrorist, and all they need do is brandish those or similar pejoratives to intimidate most folks into silence.

Intimidation -- it's government's most useful tool.

Today the whole world was fine, jes' fine, once again. Why, stocks rose and the dollar rose and the euro rose and the yen fell and pretty soon there'll be a chicken in every pot. Well, an artificial GMO-chicken, at least.

Dow added 52.30 (0.34%) to 15,387.58. S&P500 gained 2.87 (0.17%) to 1,669.16. I think both indices are vying for who can run the longest string of new all-time highs. I tell y'all, it's the best of all possible worlds, the very best. Ben himself said so, and if Ben tells you a rooster dips snuff, you can look under his wing for the brush.

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver both rose today. Dow/Gold rose 0.15 oz to 11.17 oz (G$230.90 gold dollars). Dow/Silver gained 14.28 oz (2.13%) to end at 685.26.

US dollar index gained slightly, up 7.5 basis points (0.1%) to end at 83.831. That doesn't really tell us very much. Trend in force remains in force until it's broken, and the dollars uptrend has not yet been broken.

The euro gained 0.18% to $1.2908, but remains below all its moving averages. 200 DMA stands at $1.2980, so we'll see what happens there.

Japanese yen gave back some of yesterday's rise, losing 0.22% to 97.56 cents per Y100. Nothing interesting there, but although it may be nothing more than a coincidence, the yen and stocks have been moving opposite each other ("have been negatively correlated"). That suggests that any rise in the yen will be accompanied by falling stocks. Transmission mechanism of that relation, if there is one, isn't clear to me, unless money fleeing Japan and the yen is running to the US stock market for a possible return as opposed to a sure currency loss. But then, I'm always looking for sense where no sense may be.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Have We Seen the Bottom in Silver and Gold Prices?

Gold Price Close Today : 1384.30
Change : 19.40 or 1.42%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.568
Change : 0.229 or 1.03%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.339
Change : 0.240 or 0.39%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01630
Change : -0.000064 or -0.39%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1484.60
Change : 16.60 or 1.13%

Palladium Price Close Today : 750.00
Change : 10.50 or 1.42%

S&P 500 : 1,666.29
Change : -1.18 or -0.07%

Dow In GOLD$ : $229.00
Change : $ 7.50 or 3.39%

Dow in GOLD oz : 11.078
Change : 0.363 or 3.39%

Dow in SILVER oz : 679.51
Change : -7.82 or -1.14%

Dow Industrial : 15,335.28
Change : -19.12 or -0.12%

US Dollar Index : 83.75
Change : -0.366 or -0.44%

Have we seen the bottom in silver and GOLD PRICES overnight? Tentatively. First steps.

Overnight SOMEbody (wink, wink!) tried to crush silver with massive sales in Asia (Sunday night our time). They drove silver down to 2023.5c, but that lasted only very briefly. By midnight New York time silver has climbed back above 2100c, and climbed slowly through the rest of European trading. By New York open it had reached 2180c, backed off, traded up to 2200c by noon, then in a single bound leapt to 2270c. Comex closed UP 22.9 cents at 2256.8c, after a range of 299 cents. Whew.

Today's trading paints the first half of a Key Reversal: a break to new low ground with a close higher than the preceding day (Friday closed 2233.9c). IF silver confirms with the second half of that Key Reversal tomorrow (a higher close than today's), you've got your sign that it's reversed. Permanently? Don't know. Have to see how it behaves, step by step confirming that reversal.

The SILVER PRICE crucial support now is 2250c, where "crucial" means "must hold."

The GOLD PRICE suffered the same sort of attack that silver suffered, only with less effect. Drove it down to $1,336.50 in Asian trading, rose in a rounding bottom to $1,365 when Comex opened. Backed off, strengthened, then jumped square up $1,365 to $1,385 in one leap. High hit $1,398,60, tapping hard on $1,400.

This, too, marked the first half of a Key Reversal for gold, new low with higher close. Tomorrow to complete that Key Reversal gold must close above $1,384.30.

Y'all need to comprehend that looking at charts is a work continually in progress. It says something until it contradicts or confirms. Today's trading left double bottoms on both charts. For now, both metals have reversed, but they must confirm that Key Reversal tomorrow.

This may be the witness we've been waiting on. I bought a little of both metals, just in case. That higher close tomorrow will really stimulate my buying glands.

The whole financial world is so bogus. Fed propagandists have found their "We might end QE sometime soon" theme has worked such wonders that they're pedaling that bike overtime. Chicago FedHed Evans was seen spouting that nonsense today. Right, sure, the US economy will just keep on creating jobs (or the NGM will just jimmy the numbers further so the unemployment LOOKS smaller) and the Fed will slam on the brakes and make the whole addicted US economy go inflation-cold turkey. Sure -- when your grandmother grows a beard and moustache. A level of propaganda this preposterous shows that the gullibility of the American public cannot be overestimated -- nor the contempt Our Masters have for us.

Part of this fun today arose from the US dollar index falling back from its Friday high by 36.6 basis points (0.47%) to 83.748. I have been expecting it to continue to advance, but that's a pretty hefty stumble. Besides, currencies can only be parsed temporarily by technical analysis, since the Nice Government Men can change directions -- and exchange rates -- at any time for any reason.

Yen climbed 0.96% to 97.79. If we had found the yen passed out on the street, this would be the equivalent of barely fogging a mirror held under its nostrils.

Euro also shot up today, well, rose 0.37% to $1.2887. What tarnishes the luster on that? Friday it hit the neckline of a head and shoulders that began building last September. Whether the euro intended to drop further or not, it would ordinarily bounce off strong support like that. Neckline is around $1.2800 now. When the Euro breaks that level, 'twill drop like a hambone in swill.

Stocks stuttered and staggered on their way to Schlaraffenland today. Dow lost 19.12 (0.12%) to end at 15,335.28. S&P500 backed up 1.18 (0.07%) to 1,666.29. A mania cannot be parsed, so I won't even try to point to a top. When it stops, it will stop fast, hard, and humiliating.

Dow in gold and Dow in silver both dropped right smart today. Dow in silver perched at 679.51 oz, down 7.84 oz or 1.14%. Dow/Gold lost 0.17 oz (1.52%) to 11.078 oz.

SPECIAL OFFER

U.S. $5 modern commemoratives.

Today I was able to buy a good-sized lot of US $5.00 commemoratives (0.2419 troy ounce fine gold content). These have been minted over the last thirty years to the ancient US standard to commemorate various events. and are not to be confused with the American Eagle gold coin series. All are in proof or proof-like condition.

Based on today's gold close at $1,384.30, the premium for these coins over gold is a tiny 5.9%.

I will sell lots of Eight (8) each $5 gold commems ($354.50 each) for $2,836 + $35 shipping = $2,871.00 per lot.

If you order more than one lot, add only one $35 shipping charge.

Limit ten (10) lots per customer. All lots are sold subject to the special conditions below, no exceptions. Sorry, no re-orders at these prices.

Special Conditions:

If I have miscounted my inventory and come up short, the LAST person to order will receive fewer coins, at a price reduced to reflect the smaller quantity.

First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail.

We will not take orders for less than the minimums shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS:

1. You may order by e-mail only to offers@the-moneychanger.com. No phone orders, please.

Your email must include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee.

Repeat, you must include your complete name, address, and phone number. Our clairvoyant quit without warning last week and we can no longer read your mind.

2. When you give us an order, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, and you are giving us your word that you will sell at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down.

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you.

3. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.

4. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail.

5. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.

6. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check.

8. Mention goldprice.org in your email.

Thanks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Has the Silver and Gold Price Bull Market Ended?

Gold Price Close Today : 1,364.90
Gold Price Close 10-May-13 : 1,436.80
Change : -71.90 or -5.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.339
Silver Price Close 10-May-13 : 23.632
Change : -1.293 or -5.5%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.099
Gold Silver Ratio 10-May-13 : 60.799
Change : 0.30 or 0.5%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01637
Silver Gold Ratio 10-May-13 : 0.01645
Change : -0.00008 or -0.5%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 232.55
Dow in Gold Dollars 10-May-13 : $ 217.52
Change : $15.04 or 6.9%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 11.250
Dow in Gold Ounces 10-May-13 : 10.522
Change : 0.73 or 6.9%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 687.35
Dow in Silver Ounces 10-May-13 : 639.75
Change : 47.61 or 7.4%

Dow Industrial : 15,354.79
Dow Industrial 10-May-13 : 15,118.49
Change : 236.30 or 1.6%

S&P 500 : 1,658.18
S&P 500 10-May-13 : 1,633.70
Change : 24.48 or 1.5%

US Dollar Index : 84.279
US Dollar Index 10-May-13 : 83.170
Change : 1.109 or 1.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,468.00
Platinum Price Close 10-May-13 : 1,486.00
Change : -18.00 or -1.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 739.50
Palladium Price Close 10-May-13 : 704.60
Change : 34.90 or 5.0%

Silver and GOLD PRICES were humiliated again today. Silver dipped 30.4 cents to 2233.9c. Gold dove $22.20 to $1,364.90. No sign yet of turning round.

However, silver's lows yesterday and today ran about 2206c (different charts give different figures). That's enough to call it a double bottom with the 2200c low on 15 April, but not enough to say it won't drop lower. It will have to show that next week.

Gold's weakness today and a new low for the move at $1,358.39 argue it will drop on down to $1,322, the previous low. Can gold prices go lower? Yes. It can drop to $1,250. Next week will tell.

About the only bright spot for silver and gold prices is the GOLD/SILVER RATIO at 61.099. It doesn't seem to want to climb, which would signal lower prices for the metals. But it ain't too decisive, either.

Question everybody keeps asking me: Has the SILVER and GOLD PRICE bull market ended? Answer. NO! Inflation, the primary driver of monetary demand which drives silver and gold bull markets, is stronger than ever in the hands of hapless, feckless central bankers. As long as that cause remains, the effect, higher silver and gold prices, will resume. Our Masters are busily trying to con y'all out of your silver and gold, and y'all know you can trust 'em. I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you.

Back when country music was still country and still music, an obscure artist named Stonewall Jackson in 1959 penned this lines in the song "Waterloo:

Waterloo, Waterloo

Where will you meet your Waterloo?

Every puppy has its day

Everybody has to pay

Everybody has to meet his Waterloo.

As stocks ground higher and ever higher to new all-time highs for the fourth week in a row and silver and gold continued to be slugged and kicked and the US dollar, of all scrofulous currencies, broke out upside, my mind kept returning to those lines: "Every puppy has his day." I reckon the central bankers are having theirs right now, but one day "Everybody has to meet his Waterloo." Meanwhile, the media are trying to convince us, in the words of a friend I heard today, that water runs uphill. I'm such a durned ol' fashioned, natural born fool that I just can't swallow that. Ain't no problem figuring out why I'm not president, is there?

It won't overload your credulity, I suspect, to note that stocks have risen further than I thought possible. When a market keeps edging higher like this, you just have to step out of its way. Both the Dow and S&P500 have thrown-over their resistance lines, built rising wedges, and gotten more overbought than doobies at a rock festival, but they keep going (and maybe for the same sort of reason). Anyhow, they are floating on a wave of newly created money from the Fed, not economic reality. At some point that cobweb breaks, but I can't predict when. I just don't believe in Zimbabwe-nomics, the doctrine that you can inflate your way to prosperity.

Hack, hack! Now that I've coughed that bone up out of my throat, let's proceed.

Dow today mounted on buzzard's wings and floated up 121.57 or 0.8%. S&P500 with a vulture's grace rose 15.64 (0.95%) to 1,658.18. Stupor mundi, or stupid mundi, one.

Dow/Gold today reached a new high at 11.25 oz. (G$232.55 gold dollars), up 2.4% Dow in Silver vaulted 14.6 oz. (2.2%) to a new high at 687.35 oz. Those higher prices sent me scurrying back to the charts trying to make sense of it. Looking back at the Dow in Gold's fall from it's last peak in 2007 at 21.06 oz., today's price doesn't quite reach a 38.2% correction. Today's close left the Dow/Gold barely above its long term (14 year) downtrend line. Right, I'm chewing my nails, too, wondering when reality will kick in.

I reckon with the Yen losing 25% of its value against the dollar in nine months that yen-holders would be looking around for someplace else to stash their cash, like US dollars. And with the euro facing a new crisis every fortnight and political paralysis, from that vantage point the dollar might look a little less scabby, too. Proving it has reached escape orbit speed, the dollar today mounted 53.4 basis points to 84.279, up 0.69%. It's top trend line points to 86 in about three weeks unless it stumbles. Above that stands only 89.

The Nice Government Men in Japan are obliging the dollar by sinking to ever new lows, a new one today at 96.86, down 0.95%. And somebody pointed out something to me in the euro today I hadn't noticed before, a head and shoulders with a neckline around $1.2800. Euro closed today down 0.33% to $1.2839. Once it breaks that neckline it will drop quickly to $1.2600, maybe $1.2000.

On 17 May 1792 the New York Stock Exchange was founded at 70 Wall Street by 24 brokers who had just been released from prison.

Y'all are always very kind and encouraging to me, so I'm going to ask a little favor. I am facing a knotty problem, one that at times seems completely un-riddleable. I would deeply appreciate your prayers, that God would grant me wisdom and courage and strength. That's right, I am not made of steel. In fact, patches of rust are showing up and I would deeply appreciate y'all help.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

With Gold Prices Down I Intend to Buy More

Gold Price Close Today : 1387.10
Change : -9.40 or -0.67%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.643
Change : 0.00 or 0.00%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.260
Change : -0.415 or -0.67%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01632
Change : 0.000110 or 0.68%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1485.60
Change : -5.10 or -0.34%

Palladium Price Close Today : 740.00
Change : 11.70 or 1.61%

S&P 500 : 1,650.47
Change : -8.31 or -0.50%

Dow In GOLD$ : $227.02
Change : $ 0.90 or 0.40%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.982
Change : 0.044 or 0.40%

Dow in SILVER oz : 672.76
Change : -1.88 or -0.28%

Dow Industrial : 15,233.22
Change : -42.47 or -0.28%

US Dollar Index : 83.60
Change : -0.183 or -0.22%

Silver and GOLD PRICES sang oddly out of tune today, which might be good or bad. Gold dwindled $9.40 (0.67%) to $1,387.10. Silver, however, after falling as low as 2214.4c (49.9 cents lower than yesterday's close), Yet by day's end silver had climbed back to unchanged. Odd.

In European trading, about 4:00 a.m. New York time, gold gapped down from 2250c to 2215c, and traded sideways between there and 2230c until about an hour before New York opened. In New York silver climbed, not spectacularly but steadily, to a high at 2280c. It backed off a little to close at 2264.3c.

If the SILVER PRICE can close higher tomorrow, today's action will constitute the first half of a Key Reversal upward -- but it must close higher tomorrow.

On a five day chart silver shows a long gradual but steady decline until that low and recovery today, which leaves a V-bottom on the chart. Will that hold? I don't know, but clearly whenever silver nears 2200c, buyers wake up.

Gold's chart today mirrors silver's, with a gap breaking down about 4:00 a.m., long sideways trading, then a recovery. This leaves behind on the 5 day chart a V-bottom, but without silver's unchanged close.

Now is the time to keep a close watch. These levels are about where we can expect silver and gold to turn around if they do not intend to revisit their old highs. I intend to take advantage of these low prices to buy more silver and gold, and I'm just waiting for the right moment and a confirmation.

Reader BT, who wisely migrated below the Mason-Dixon line, has asked what it means when gold and silver prices keep on dropping while the premium on physical silver and gold prices items in the retail market is at an all-time high?

First, we have to distinguish two markets in physical gold and silver. In the international market gold is traded in 100 or (more often) 400 oz bars, and silver is traded in 1,000 oz bars. In the retail market, most gold is traded as coins of 1.2057 oz or less, 1 oz. bullion bars, or, occasionally, ten oz or kilo bars. Silver is traded as 100 oz. bullion bars, ten oz. bars, one oz privately minted rounds, a plethora of official coins like the American Eagle or Maple Leaf, that are simply one ounce silver rounds from a government mint. Also traded at retail are US 90% silver coins (dimes, quarters, and halves minted before 1965).

I do not trade in the international market, so cannot testify as to delivery shortages there. I have heard RUMORS that wealthy Europeans have been to their banks demanding delivery of their gold and been put off, but I cannot verify that. I do notice an 8 May report on the Nymex site that Comex gold inventories were 7.9 million ounces, lowest level since 18 July 2008.

The silver and gold retail market that I deal in has a very thin pipeline. Large wholesalers ($5 billion a year turnover or more) are the key suppliers, but when silver and GOLD PRICES suddenly fall, demand usually overwhelms their supply. This doesn't apply so much to gold products as to silver. As soon as supplies disappear and while awaiting re-orders from refiners, they raise the premiums on 100 oz bars and one oz rounds.

Since the arrival of the silver American Eagle in 1986, most dealers have shown little respect for US 90% silver coin, which during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s was the workhorse of the retail silver market. In the 1980s they carried a 40% premium, dropped to roughly melt when the silver AE appeared as dealers switched inventory to AEs, but in the late 1990s Y2K buying ran that premium up to 40% again. I watch this premium closely because USUALLY a fall signals a coming fall in silver, and a rise underlying strength and a coming rise. For years I have directed customers primarily into 90% coin because its premium was so much lower (0 to 50 cents over spot vs. $2.50 to $4.75 for American Eagles) and because OVER TIME PREMIUM ALWAYS DISAPPEARS. Also, their silver content is well known, and they are very divisible (14 dimes to an ounce).

Most dealers still believe there are loads of 90% bags available, but there are not. They've been steadily melted over the years, and one day will resume their high premium when folks figure that out.

The fall 2008 panic and price drop drove premiums on US 90% to 50% over melt, and drove up premiums on every other silver item, too. Deliveries stretched out to 6 or 8 weeks. Gold coin premiums at wholesale roughly tripled, with Krugerrands at 8% and American Eagles at 11% (peak of 2008) and long delays. Those premiums peaked about when silver and gold prices bottomed, then fairly quickly disappeared, returning to normal by June 2009.

So most of the presently high retail premiums on the SILVER PRICE can be explained by high demand, but not quite all. The US 90% silver premium began climbing from about 30 cents an ounce in December to $5 an ounce when May began. It has since fallen back to about $2.90, but remains stubbornly high. Through January, February, March, and April the 90% premium was forecasting a silver reversal upward any time, but it has proven a false signal -- for the first time I can remember.

Conclusion seems to be that huge retail demand is driving that premium, even though cheaper forms of silver are available, and that the lower the silver price falls, the more retail customers crowd in to buy it. It's probably dangerous to generalize about the price's direction from this, other than to notice the general support at lower levels, since the retail markets here, in Asia, and in Europe are not the largest market segment by any measure. It does show, however, that savers around the world recognize that they must save in gold or silver, or be gutted by their national fiat currencies -- which makes them about five times cannier than every central banker in the world.

Well! Man bites dog. The stock indices did NOT make all-time new highs today.

S&P500 lost 8.31 (0.5%) to close at 1,650.47. Dow Industrials lapsed 42.47 (0.28%) to 15,233.22. Both remain ridiculously oversold, both have built rising wedge formations, both have overthrown their upper channel or trend lines. Both, in other words, are begging for a big dive. (Tuck away in your mind that this dive will likely not be the end. It should be followed by another rise to more all-time highs, and the dive that will be the end, later this year.)

Today threw an interesting curve to the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. Dow in Silver shrank 1.88 oz to close 672.75 oz. Dow in Gold, on the other hand, rose a bit to 10.982 oz, virtually identical to yesterday's 10.938. Hesitating or turning? We'll see tomorrow.

US dollar index lost 18.3 basis points (0.24%) today to end at 83.602. That no doubt helped boost silver and gold a little, but didn't change the dollar index chart. It is still headed higher strongly. Saw one of those headlines today that makes you scratch your head because everybody in the world is saying the same thing, and everybody can't ever be right: "Dollar is the world's strongest currency." Yeah, buddy! Maybe it's been taking one of them Charles Atlas strong man courses, so the other currencies won't kick sand in its face at the beach. Other than that, it's still the same rotten patchwork of propaganda and Biggest Army In the World that it's ever been, so strong that since 2001 it's "climbed" from 1.21 to 83.602. No, wait, that isn't a climb, is it? That's losing 31%. But I will concede that presently the central banks have talked the dollar up into the air. I hate to tell 'em it's just like playing catch with a bowling ball -- stay out from under it.

Yen barely moved, closed 97.81 cents/Y100. Euro close $1.2884, about where it closed yesterday ($1.2878).

Somebody said to me today that we've given "way too much real estate" in our hearts and minds to fear of government. She was dead right. They rule us by fear. Wonder what would happen if, like our forebears, we took back that real estate, and feared no power but God?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Can Silver and Gold Prices Hold Above their April Lows?

Gold Price Close Today : 1396.50
Change : -28.20 or -1.98%

Silver Price Close Today : 22.643
Change : -0.712 or -3.05%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.675
Change : 0.673 or 1.10%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01621
Change : -0.000179 or -1.09%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1490.70
Change : -11.20 or -0.75%

Palladium Price Close Today : 728.30
Change : 1.90 or 0.26%

S&P 500 : 1,658.78
Change : 8.44 or 0.51%

Dow In GOLD$ : $226.12
Change : $ 5.35 or 2.42%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.939
Change : 0.259 or 2.42%

Dow in SILVER oz : 674.63
Change : 23.15 or 3.55%

Dow Industrial : 15,275.69
Change : 60.44 or 0.40%

US Dollar Index : 83.82
Change : 0.217 or 0.26%

Silver and GOLD PRICES took a bad beating with a big stick today. Gold prices buckled by $28.20 (2%) to $1,396.50, below the morale- busting $1,400 level. Silver belly-flopped by 71.2 cents to 2264.3 cents, 3.1% lower than yesterday.

For gold, $1,375 - $1,350 now becomes the target, and we are fast drawing nigh that juncture where we will discover whether that $1,321.50 low on 15 April marks the limit of gold's correction.

From the SILVER PRICE low today at 2252.3 it's only 52 cents to the 15 April low at 2200c. Tomorrow we'll find out how many buyers are lurking there, and how much they want to buy.

I am of course no more than a natural born fool from Tennessee, but if his highness Ben the Banker were to put me in charge of manipulating silver and gold prices, even for a day, and I wanted them to drop, I'd hit 'em hard tomorrow, to test whether they have any resilience at those earlier lows or not. If I couldn't break 'em, I'd leave 'em alone for a while. But don't pay no attention to me, I'm just a fool and don't know nothin'.

Can't help sounding like a broken record, because although the end is sure, blow-off markets take time to unfold.

Two headlines make my blow-off point. "Dow, S&P500, Google at all time highs intraday. Stocks shrugged off disappointing economic data in the US and Europe and continued to move higher into record territory." Or this: "Wall Street rallies despite downbeat earnings. US stocks soared to new record highs on Wednesday, despite further signs that the country's largest public companies have seen limited sales growth in the first year's quarter."

Good news, bad news, no news -- it's all the same to a blow-off market, it will rise on any news, even news that ought to cast rational doubt on future performance.

Never mind. Dow and S&P500 both made new all-time highs again today. Dow fattened up 60.44 (0.4%) to 15,275.69. S&P500 swelled 8.44 (0.51%) to 1,658.78.

Put that into perspective. To match its inflation-adjusted peak in 2000, the Dow today would need to reach 15,845.33. To match its 2007 inflation adjusted peak, the S&P500 would have to be at 1,772.67. To reach its year 2000 peak, adjusted for inflation, the S&P500 today needs to reach 2,099.43. Those prices would just bring you even with what inflation has cost.

The Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver jumped up today, thanks to rising stocks and falling metals.

Dow in silver jumped to a new high at 674.19 oz, up 3.66%. Dow in gold did not jump quite as much, only to 10.94 oz (G$226.15 gold dollars) where the last high was 11 oz. Both are flirting and trading through and around long term downtrend lines. Nerve-wracking.

The US dollar index continued to rise today, adding another 21.7 basis points (0.285) to 83.822, confirming yet again that it has broken out towards the sky. This will drag on gold and silver and stocks.

Anent this temporarily strong dollar, it's interesting that the yield on the US treasury 10 year note since May 1 has risen right sharply, implying that folks are selling dollars. Why? To invest in stocks, where they might find some return? Falling yields (rising bond prices) would be bad news for stocks right now.

Astonishing everyone, the Japanese yen actually rose 0.04% today to 97.79 cents/Y100. Frankly, it makes little sense looking at the chart any longer, since the Nipponese Nice Government Men are plainly in charge, with the approval of the G7 central banks.

The euro gapped down today on more bad economic news: Euroland has an incredible shrinking economy. That knocked the currency in the head. It closed beneath its 200 DMA yesterday, gapped down today to close at 1.2878, down 0.48%. Should the euro not catch hold around the last low ($1.2750), a large span of air remains to catch it before it hits $1.2600.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Gold Price Support Lies from $1,418.50 to $1,424

Gold Price Close Today : 1424.70
Change : -9.80 or -0.68%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.355
Change : -0.315 or -1.33%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 61.002
Change : 0.398 or 0.66%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01639
Change : -0.000108 or -0.65%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1501.90
Change : 17.40 or 1.17%

Palladium Price Close Today : 726.40
Change : 8.45 or 1.18%

S&P 500 : 1,650.34
Change : 16.57 or 1.01%

Dow In GOLD$ : $220.77
Change : $ 3.29 or 1.51%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.680
Change : 0.159 or 1.51%

Dow in SILVER oz : 651.48
Change : 13.89 or 2.18%

Dow Industrial : 15,215.25
Change : 123.57 or 0.82%

US Dollar Index : 83.57
Change : 0.346 or 0.42%

Neither the silver nor GOLD PRICE did anything to brag about today. Silver slumped 31.5 cents (1.3%) to 2335.5c and gold tumbled $9.80 (0.68%) to $1,424.70.

That brings the gold price to "fish or cut bait" time. Support lies from $1,418.50 to $1,424. A fall here takes gold back to $1,400, and might give us that final fall and bottom-confirmation we've been waiting for.

SILVER PRICE has broken down out of an uptrending channel & a triangle within that channel, & now sits firmly below its 20 DMA. If support at 2300 cents doesn't hold, then it will re-visit 2200c or move toward it. Nightmare takes it to 2000c or even 1950c. Don't shoot me, I only report the charts, I don't manufacture them.

Here's my speculation I promised y'all yesterday. Speculation, remember, not a prophecy.

The bankers can have only be one endgame for this inflationary blowoff: return to some gold-plated standard, to restore confidence & retain banker control. This will be accompanied by crisis & by self-righteous posturing galore about "sound money," and a "generous" write-down of debt, but no real reform or loss of power to the banks.

Similar strategy played out after the War for Southern Independence. Since the financial elite then were net bond holders -- bonds they had bought with depreciated greenbacks at 50 cents on the dollar of gold -- they pursued a deflationary policy the rest of the century, which made their bonds & the interest rise in value. Having ridden that horse into the ground, they reversed course into inflation with the Federal Reserve (no big government or big wars without a central bank).

Now they've ridden the inflation horse nearly into the ground, so it will soon be time to reverse course again. Oh, not yet. Things aren't bad enough yet, but when they get bad enough our Masters will again pose as our Benefactors and fight the good fight for sound money against those inflationary dogs & swine.

But not yet. Not yet. The inflation must get much worse first, it must evaporate more debt, the public pain and clamor must grow until the poor tortured people will accept any remedy put forth just to end the agony.

THIS is why you should buy gold and silver, so that across even the deepest abyss of financial catastrophe you will be able to carry your capital, and re-build on the other side. I'll bet that's what the Elite are already doing. [End of speculation]

STOCKS today made new all-time intraday highs & high closes. Dow waxed fatly, 123.57, up 0.82% to 15,215.25. S&P500 waxed even fatlier, up 1.01% (16.57) to 1,650.34.

Oh, my, I've been here before. In gold & silver in 1980, for example, or stocks in 2000. S&P500 back in January threw over the channel line across the 2011 and 2012 tops, and now has thrown over the upper trend line based in January 2013. S&P500 is wildly overbought by the witness of its MACD, 12% above its 200 DMA. Both have formed rising wedges. Yet who can say when a flock of birds in flight or a school of fish or a market in a mania will turn? Markets like this feed on themselves, with headlines like this one today, "Market rises for the 18th straight Tuesday!" You can almost hear the breathlessness. This can continue yet a while, but the end is certain.

I've kept waiting for the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver to turn down and follow through with the downtrend they had begun, but can no longer gainsay that they are both moving up, leaving that downtrend behind, so they haven't turned down yet. Dow in gold closed today at 10.680 oz (G$220.77 gold dollars) up 0.159 oz (G$3.29) or 1.5%.

On a 7 year Dow in gold chart, the drop from 21.06 oz in 2007 to 5.69 oz. in 2011 would reach a 38.2% correction at 11.57 oz (G$239.17). High so far has been 11.00 oz, so maybe the Dow/Gold will make a higher high. Looking out further, a 50% correction of that 2007-2011 drop would take Dow/Gold to 13.38 oz. (Same 50% in silver would carry it to 696.16 oz).

Dow in silver today rose 13.89 oz (2.2% to end at 651.48 oz. Last high (15 April) was 656.15

Y'all may be scratching your noggins wondering why I spend so much time maundering about the Dow in Gold or in Silver. Easy: those are the best indicators I know to signal when metals are about to turn up. Often the Dow/metals spread turns down before the price highs in stocks, but even when they don't, once they turn, they can be trusted to stay turned.

They haven't turned down yet.

Today like some lumpy rattlesnake digesting a rabbit, the US dollar index, having digested Monday's gains, went after another rabbit. Gobbled down 34.5 basis points (0.44%) to 83.571. It nearly matched today the 83.66 April high & promises to slither speedily toward 84.10. Unless it stops there, dollar should reach for 86 first, then possibly 89.

Now we know that currency exchange rates are manipulated, or, to use the churched up word, "co-ordinated." But that leaves us with a quizzical riddle: could Bouncing Ben Bernanke actually have agreed to let the Japanese AND the Europeans depreciate their currencies against the dollar, and so feed their exporters at the expense of US exporters? Why, the question is no more asked than answered! Y'all remember Bretton Woods, that set American manufacturers at a perpetual disadvantage because they were paid in depreciating paper dollars but foreigners importing into the US got paid in dollars exchangeable into gold. US exports became more expensive for foreigners, while their imports into the US were effectively subsidized.

Long & short is that it appears Bernanke following tradition, bailing out foreign economies to American hurt. Yeah, Buddy! This here globalism is somethin' wonderful, & it ain't new!

But whether my suspicions jibe with reality or not, both the yen & euro fell -- again -- today. Yen dipped 0.51% to 97.77 cents/Y100 while the Euro dropped 0.27% to $1.2940. Euro acts like it wants to make another trip below $1.2600.

On 14 May 1913 (same year the Federal Reserve was founded) John D. Rockefeller founded the Rockefeller Foundation with a gift of $100,000,000. According to inflation calculators that use understated US government figures, that would equal $2.35 billion today. However, in 1913 $100 million equaled 4,837,500 oz. of gold. At $1,425/ounce, that would be worth today $6.893 billion.

A generous review of At Home in Dogwood Mudhole appears on survivalblog.com at http://bit.ly/11wKUpK We still have a few copies left that you can order from www.dogwoodmudhole.com. Mention goldprice.org when you order.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.

Fiat Money Will Lose Against Silver and Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 1434.50
Change : -2.30 or -0.16%

Silver Price Close Today : 23.670
Change : 0.038 or 0.16%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 60.604
Change : -0.195 or -0.32%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01650
Change : 0.000053 or 0.32%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1484.50
Change : -1.50 or -0.10%

Palladium Price Close Today : 717.95
Change : 13.35 or 1.89%

S&P 500 : 1,633.77
Change : 0.07 or 0.00%

Dow In GOLD$ : $217.48
Change : $ (0.04) or -0.02%

Dow in GOLD oz : 10.521
Change : -0.002 or -0.02%

Dow in SILVER oz : 637.59
Change : -2.16 or -0.34%

Dow Industrial : 15,091.68
Change : -26.81 or -0.18%

US Dollar Index : 83.17
Change : 0.471 or 0.57%

Silver and GOLD PRICES gainsaid each other today. The SILVER PRICE rose 3.8 cents to 2367c while gold fell $2.30 to $1,434.50.

Question occupying (what's left of) my mind is, Was the 12 and 15 April plunge a spike bottom signaling sellers' exhaustion, OR, did it only signal a half-way move? Does it make a difference? Well, if twas a half way move, gold will yet tumble another 13% or so to $1,250. On the other hand, if GOLD PRICES confirm that $1,321.50 bottom with a low at $1,400 or $1,375 that holds and reverses, it's time to take a chance and buy. That could happen this week. Having repeatedly read (but not confirmed) that 400 tonnes of paper gold was sold into the futures market on 12/15 April, I'm inclined to call that a Nice Government Men bear raid that probably can't be repeated again soon. (400 tonnes is 12.86 million oz, at $1,550 an ounce about $20 billion. Throwing that all onto the market at one or two licks is hardly the way a profit-maximizing seller behaves, at least in this universe.)

But my hesitation between these two answers, spike bottom or half-way, doesn't change the outlook, namely, fiat money will lose against silver and gold. That raid, too, smells a bit of central banker FEAR. I'm preparing a little comment on that underlying outlook for y'all, but it will have to wait until tomorrow.

Confusing things more (or clearing them up) was silver's closing higher -- although barely -- than Friday. Either silver or gold is pointing the wrong way. I reckon we'll find out which tomorrow.

When two people disagree, chances are they can't both be right. Likewise, when markets that ought to agree and confirm each other don't, one of 'em is lying.

Dow and S&P500 couldn't agree today. Dow scraped off 26.81 (down 0.18%) to 15,091.68 while the S&P500 barely moved, but up 0.07 point at 1,633.77. Somebody's wrong. (Dow fell barely through its uptrend line.)

Dow in Gold fell minutely, .001 oz to 10.521 oz (G$217.49 gold dollars). Likewise the Dow in silver fell from 639.75 oz on Friday to 637.59 oz today, a 0.33% drop. No dramatic change here, but the downtrends remain in force, although Dow in gold is striving to turn up, maybe make a double top with the 11 oz (G$227.39 high).

US Dollar Index Friday broke out to the upside. Today it went nowhere, backed off 1.4 basis points. target for this move is probably 86, maybe 89 before it's over. That's not good news for stocks or for silver and gold.

The international gangsters who run the central banks of the G7 nations met over the weekend, ate fat victuals and drank fine wine, smacked their lips and said, "Japan ain't done nothing wrong, and y'all remember this ain't a currency war."

Meditate on what allowing Japan to drop its currency exchange rate 25% against the dollar in 8 months and I don't know how much against the Euro and all the Asian currencies means to exporters. Great for Japan, not so great for Europe and Asia and the US -- but shucks, we haven't had a foreign or exchange rate policy run in our own interest since Grover Cleveland was president.

The euro dropped 0.17% to $1.2929, right at its 200 day moving average and, one guesses, headed for $1.2000 yet again. Yen sank under 100 cents to 98.01 cents /Y100, down 0.2%.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com
1-888-218-9226
10:00am-5:00pm CST, Monday-Friday

© 2013, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose. No, I don't.