The Gold Price Remains Above $1,235-1238, Which is What's Needed to Stay in the Rallying-Game

Gold Price Close Today : 1244.20
Change : (4.10) or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.327
Change : (0.055) cents or -0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1536.00
Change : 8.00 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 520.00
Change : 115.00 or 28.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.38
Change : -0.029 or 0.0%

Dow Industrial : 10,269.47
Change : 254.74 or 2.5%

US Dollar Index : 82.47
Change : -0.631 or -0.8%

The GOLD PRICE advanced steadily overnight to $1254, then was, quite literally, slammed on the US open. Selling must have continued until 11:00 when it stopped at $1,243. Comex dropped off $4.10 to $1,244.20.

This comes as no cosmic surprise. Whoever the short sellers are -- and I forbear to name names lest I earn the dread title "conspiratorialist" which the Establishment and its scabby yellow cur running dog media use to describe anyone who disagrees with them -- would logically counterattack before the gold price makes a new all-time high. Heavens, even if it were only short sellers off the street, they would do the same. Yet the gold price remains above $1,235-1238, which is what's needed to stay in the rallying-game.

The SILVER PRICE chart looks like gold's, only better. Critical here is the silver price holding on above $19.20. You have to expect strife at old highs. Silver followed the same pattern as gold, running into mystery sellers on the open. Low came at $19.252, and Comex closed down 5.5c at $19.327.

These closes today aren't bad numbers for silver and gold prices, but remember that when you are advancing, you must keep on advancing. You can't bumble and pause long, or you stumble.
September is often a very good month for silver and gold prices. I remember 1979, when the silver price finished August about $10.00 or maybe $12.00 and by 21 January 1980 stood at $50.00. The gold price didn't slouch, either.

Stocks made me look like an idiot today, but that's okay. First, it's not hard to do, and second, I only have to wait a little while and they will drop again, making me look like an investing genius. That's the advantage of investing with the primary trend: the trend will bail out your worst timing mistakes. That 15-20 year trend is DOWN for stocks, and as time wears on, that bear will pull them down. Oh, there will be, as today, flashes of hope -- "better manufacturing news in China and the US pointed to global recovery" -- but these serve only for the bear to lure more victims into his den, there to sit until he decides to maul them.

I did, however, seriously misidentify where stocks were in their present downtrend. So where are we now? Stocks today hit their 50 day moving average (10,260) rising 254.74 and closing at 10,269.47. S&P performed similarly, rising 30.96 to 1,080.29. Twenty DMA stands at 10,300, and today's high was 10,279.08. Clearly that old resistance at 10,300 has lost none of its strength.

Odd look to today's chart, though. Lifts straight up off the open, but from about 10:00 until close doesn't move 50 points -- flatlines. Is that a complete exhaustion of buying power, or big sellers stepping in toward 10,300? Or merely a very thin market, with very nervous shorts? Whatever the cause, it is not normal trading.

Aiding stocks' rise was a weak dollar today. It made a low today at 82.194, and dropped for the day a sizeable 63.1 basis points. Trading now at 82.468. Overnight the dollar eroded from 83 to 82.2 at today's open, then bounced a bit but could reach no higher than 82.50. Today's fall took the dollar below its 20 DMA (82.37). The 200 DMA stands at 81.30, a mere 115 basis points below.

This no longer looks like a rally, unless the dollar is about to make a second touch (1st was in August) to the 200 day moving average before rallying. The dollar has been boxing here with its 50 DMA (now 82.95), unable to knock it down. The jury is still out on the dollar, but don't look for higher prices tomorrow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

Silver and Gold Prices are Performing Exactly as You Would Expect if They Intended to Burst Through Old Resistance

Gold Price Close Today : 1248.30
Change : 11.40 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.382
Change : 0.372 cents or 2.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1528.00
Change : -2.00 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 505.00
Change : 6.00 or 1.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.41
Change : -0.661 or -1.0%

Dow Industrial : 10,014.72
Change : 4.99 or 0.0%

US Dollar Index : 83.11
Change : -0.028 or 0.0%

Today's tale is soon told: stocks wallowed, dollar equivocated, SILVER and GOLD PRICES soared like eagles above the mundane worries and cares of this sublunary globe.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES must have heard my warning yesterday and heeded it, because both took to their heels today. The SILVER PRICE added 37.2c to reach 1938.2c at Comex close, gold added $11.40 to end at $1,248.30. Today's close brings silver, sweet silver, back to the top of the range we have been fighting since May, no, since 2008. Now, now, silver dig in the spurs and ply the whip and race ahead!

The GOLD PRICE also finds itself smack against resistance at $1,250, really the last high close, $1,255. Oh, what fireworks, what pyrotechnics, what groaning of croakers and doubters who have been predicting gold's demise when gold smashes through that $1,255 mark!

Be still, my beating heart, and look at the other hand. If silver and gold were going to fail, this would be the place. Always must bear in mind that nothing is a given with markets until after it happens. Yet in answer I must add that silver and gold prices are performing exactly as you would expect if they intended to burst through old resistance.

If silver and gold prices close through that resistance tomorrow, close your eyes and buy all you can stand.

US Dollar index continues to refuse to commit itself to any direction. Oh, choppy, choppy was today's action. It did come up off that double bottom from Thursday and Friday at 82.65, and climbed (clomb? Clamb?) as high as 83.342. Alas, the dollar's nose then began bleeding, and it pursued a zig-zag course down to 82.877. Now it's trading at 83.106, down only 2.8 basis points from yesterday, so y'all can see it recovered at least that much. Dollar is headed higher, but faces a tremendous headwind.

Now why would investors be so prejudiced against the Almighty Dollar? Maybe they don't speak Bernankese, either.

STOCKS painted about as miserable a picture today as one might long to see. Dow began the day by plunging 70 points, then climbed above unchanged about 11:00 a.m. fought back and forth toward 10,076, up about 65 points, then collapsed as the day threatened to close at 2:30, but Whoops! Looky there! It close up 4.99 points at 10,014.72. S&P followed suit, up 0.41 to 1,049.33. This is pitiful. Perhaps it will satisfy the hoi polloi who listen once a day and know only that stocks rose or fell, but look at the inward performance, and you must despair of stocks. Stay out of stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

The Gold Price Needs to Move Higher. Soon.

Gold Price Close Today : 1236.90
Change : 1.30 or 0.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.010
Change : (0.029) cents or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1530.00
Change : -1.00 or -0.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 499.00
Change : -5.00 or -1.0%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.07
Change : 0.167 or 0.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,009.74
Change : -140.92 or -1.4%

US Dollar Index : 83.18
Change : 0.364 or 0.4%

Looking over both SILVER and GOLD PRICES thoughtfully, today was neither exciting nor encouraging.

The SILVER PRICE vibrated sideways from $19.18 to $18.92, but mostly swung back and forth over $19.00. Comex closed down 2.9c at $19.01, and right now the silver price is trading at $19.06. From here $19.30 must be beat, then $19.70.

This could be good, this could be bad. Expect that the silver price must work up strength to breach resistance at $19.70 that so often has turned it back in the past. On the other hand, the silver price cannot forever stand still, but must push high to make good and confirm gains already made. I would not want to see silver close below $18.85.

The GOLD PRICE fluttered sideways, too, between $1,233.30 and $1,238.15. On the 5-day chart this gives the last three days a bowlish shape which might be a rounding bottom. The gold price must not close below $1,232 and up above must break through $1,240. Comex today closed up 1.30 at $1,236.90. Gold needs to move higher. Soon.

Nobody can really parse what Bernanke said over the weekend, but maybe it had some effect on the dollar's little rise today, up 36.4 basis points to 83.175. On the 5-day chart this sketched a strong rise away from Thursday and Friday's double bottom at 82.65. Resistance here stands at 83.20, and the dollar looks ready to bull thru that and crash the next resistance at 83.50. Today it closed above the 50 DMA (83.08). The 20 DMA likes below at 82.16, but is curving up toward the 50 DMA. MACD is pointing up but histogram nags a little. RSI is high but not oversold. Dollar should move higher.

Every day small things appear that give us cause to turn to heaven with thanksgiving. For me today, one is that I do not belong to the Nice Government Men tasked with keeping the stock market afloat. After Friday's rise of 122.23, the Dow today lost 140.92 to close at 10,009.74. (S&P fell 15.67 to 1,049.92). All that heavy lifting the NGM did on Friday to boost the Dow above 10,000 just evaporated and they're right back where they started, like Sisyphus rolling the rock up the hill only to see it roll right back down. Me, oh, my. The Dow is 9.74 points from crashing the morale-breaking 10,000 point, it stands below its 200, 20, and 50 day moving averages, other indicators all point down -- It's enough to send a NGM reaching for the bicarbonate of soda.

SPECIAL OFFER:
A wholesaler offered me something I seldom sell because of the high premium: 1/10 Canadian Maple Leaves. He was in a hurry to sell them, and so offered them at a very low price. Based on gold at $1,237.70 I would normally sell them at $144.00, but these I can sell at $137.30 each. That's a 10.9% premium on an item that usually carries a 16.3% premium.
Minimum order is a lot of Twenty (20) pieces, or 20 x $137.30 = $2,746. Spot gold basis is $1,237.70.
You may order more than 20 pieces of either, but only in increments of twenty (20), so I will sell you 20 or 40, or 60, etc., but not 24 or 37.
Add $25.00 per order for shipping.
First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I can sell a maximum of 21 lots. Ordering Instructions:
1. You may order by e-mail only to .
Your email MUST include your complete name, address, and phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States. Please mention you came from goldprice.org in your email.
2. Orders are on a first-come, first-served basis until supply is exhausted.
3. "First-come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by email.
4. If your order is filled , we will email you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled.
5. You will need to send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours.
6. We will allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. If your hurry is greater than that, you can send a bank wire. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

The Gold Price at the End of July Pierced the Uptrend Line but has Since Splendidly Recovered

Gold Price Close Today : 1,234.80
Gold Price Close 20-Aug : 1,227.70
Change : 7.10 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 1903.9
Silver Price Close 20-Aug : 1812
Change : 91.90 or 5.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,531.00
Platinum Price Close 20-Aug : 1,514.00
Change : 17.00 or 1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 504.00
Palladium Price Close 20-Aug : 478.00
Change : 26.00 or 5.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 64.86
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Aug : 67.75
Change : -2.90 or -4.3%

Dow Industrial : 10,108.04
Dow Industrial 20-Aug : 10,213.47
Change : -105.43 or -1.0%

US Dollar Index : 82.940
US Dollar Index 20-Aug : 83.049
Change : -0.11 or -0.1%

Hush! Let the week speak: Gold up seven bucks, stocks down 1%, US dollar index flat, and silver up -- what! 5.1%!

THE DOLLAR INDEX may have bottomed yesterday and today with lows around 82.65. Yet it also made double tops around 83.20. It managed to hold on around 82.90. In the broader view the dollar ought to begin rising again next week if it is, as I have been thinking, in a rally mode. A close below 82 would be lethal to that interpretation. Upside the last high is 83.56, so the dollar needs to pass that point.

STOCKS today tried to erase yesterday's shame, but 'twasn't too convincing. The Dow rose 122.23 to close above Magical 10,000 at 10,108.04. S&P rose 12.43 to close at 1,060.03. These are but the thrashings of the trapped. Stocks will drop more next week, perhaps much more. Please save yourself the heartache and flee stocks. Once they break through Dow 9,700, they will sink like an anchor pitched off the Empire State Building.

The little G$175 (8.466 oz) support that was holding the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (DiG$) in the air gave way last week, and this week the DiGS sank to G$167.09 (8.083 oz). Stocks have definitely begun the next stage of their decline against gold. Ultimate target is G$20.67 (1.000 oz).

The DOW IN SILVER OUNCES also is about to break through longstanding support at 525 ounces, on its way to an ultimate 32 ounces or less.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO dropped off a cliff this week, beginning at 68.402 and ending at 64.856, down 5%. The story does not stop there. The fall took the ratio to the bottom boundary of the even-sided triangle it has so long been forming. One more step down and the ratio will fall out of that triangle, signalling what should prove a momentous move down. A close below the last low (64.389) will confirm that fall. Observe also that this new close places the ratio below both the 300 and 200 DMAs.

There is more. The 300 DMA had barely crossed above the 200 DMA, not what we want to see in a market in a primary downtrend. A falling ratio will pull that 200 DMA back below the 300 DMA.

I'm not finished. This week places the Ratio below its 50 DMA (66.35) and 17 DMA (66.1), which signals a market moving down.

The SILVER PRICE this week performed spectacularly. It rose 111.4c or 6.4%, from 1792.5c to 1903.9c. Where does that place it? First, it has broken through the downtrend line from the May 2010 high. Second, it is moving up when the seasonal chart says it ought to move up. Third, silver now has opportunity to challenge that May high at 1964c, but more importantly, to exceed the March 2008 high at 2068.5c. Today silver rose 6.1c to 1903.9c, and that backwardation we saw on Wednesday has not returned.

"Bull markets climb a wall of worry," saith the market proverb. A thousand fundamental reasons present themselves to doubt this rally, but technically nothing stands in the way of higher prices.
The little G$175 (8.466 oz) support that was holding the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) in the air gave way last week, and this week the DiGS sank to G$167.09 (8.083 oz). Stocks have definitely begun the next stage of their decline against gold. Ultimate target is G$20.67 (1.000 oz).
The Dow in Silver Ounces also is about to break through longstanding support at 525 ounces, on its way to an ultimate 32 ounces or less.

The GOLD PRICE at the end of July pierced the uptrend line but has since splendidly recovered. It has reached $1,240 resistance but stalled there the past two days, although "stalled" feels like the wrong word after its Olympian performance jumping up on Thursday, Options Expiry, when normally it would be driven down. Today gold dropped 60c to $1,234.80. Next week it must exceed $1,240 or fall back. No equivocating here.

Once through $1,240 gold targets $1,255, the last high. Above that point it takes off into another rally, which in my ignorance looks like "the really big wave" coming. If the past week's strength has arisen solely from the passing attention of traders, then this rally will evaporate. But if it is driven by more powerful and less evanescent forces -- such as fears of sovereign debt defaults, fears of currency defaults, fears of more banking crises -- then it won't fade. This is that wall of worry that gold must climb.

Piffle! It makes no different at all to the long term, for the course is set firmly upward for both silver and gold for the next five years. This week I have been meditating on the thinness of gold and silver supply. Most folks think one can easily pick up the phone and order a million bucks worth of silver and gold, no problem. Ahh, but the market is so thin that when several large folks, or a multitude of small folks, press into the market, there's not enough supply for everybody to get some. Remember fall 2008. Those days of shortages will return. The time to buy silver and gold is before the crisis occurs.

Y'all enjoy your weekend. Argentums et aurum comparanda sunt --

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

Gold Gave up $4.10 to Close at $1,235.40, Again, Strong in the Teeth of Options Expiry

Gold Price Close Today : 1235.40
Change : (4.10) or -0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.978
Change : (0.044) cents or -0.2%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1536.00
Change : 4.00 or 0.3%

Palladium Price Close Today : 504.00
Change : 7.00 or 1.4%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.10
Change : -0.065 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial : 9,985.81
Change : -74.25 or -0.7%

US Dollar Index : 82.90
Change : -0.319 or -0.4%

Options Expiry today did not manage to do much damage after all.

In the teeth of Options Expiry the SILVER PRICE lost only 4.4c to close below 1900 at 1897.8c. Tough. Wiry. Resilient.

Assuming silver presses through 1900c tomorrow, which I do assume, it will move immediately to knock a hole in that 1970-2000c ceiling. Here silver need only avoid doing something stupid, like closing below 1860c. Otherwise a wild rampage lies ahead.

Gold gave up $4.10 to close at $1,235.40, again, strong in the teeth of Options Expiry. The gold price must push clean through $1,240 tomorrow and work toward that last high at $1,255. A close below $1,230 would change the picture.

The US dollar bounced off its 50 DMA (83.18) today and fell back 31.9 basis points to 82.90. That's not encouraging but not deadly, either. Dollar ought to hold at 82.50 anyway, and certainly not fall lower than the 20 DMA at 82. Dollar smells questionable here.

STOCKS left no question what they are doing. Dow dropped below the Magical Mystical 10,000 point. Dow lost 74.25 to close at 9,985.81. S&P lost 8.11 and ended at 1,047.22.

That doesn't nearly tell the tale. Dow muddled around up 40 points until 11:00, when it sprang a leak. By 2:30 the leak had become a flood. It closed only 18 points off the 9,968 low.

Falling through 10,000 will bring painful attention on stocks as investors' morale breaks. Lower prices ahead.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

Most Likely Track is for the Gold Price Uptrend to Keep On Rising

Gold Price Close Today : 1240.10
Change : 8.30 or 0.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.022
Change : 0.653 cents or 3.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1532.00
Change : 14.00 or 0.9%

Palladium Price Close Today : 497.00
Change : 10.00 or 2.1%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 65.19
Change : -1.866 or -2.8%

Dow Industrial : 10,060.06
Change : 19.61 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index : 83.27
Change : -0.044 or -0.1%


Today neither silver nor gold were bashful about declaring which direction they are headed, but more of that below.

Mark ye well that the dollar's movement had naught to do with silver or gold's rise today. The dollar jigged up and it jigged down, but within the 82.85 - 83.50 range that has held it captive these two days past. Dollar has built an even-sided or perhaps flat-topped triangle that most likely will break out upside.

In this day's trading it dropped a meager 4.4 basis points to trade now at 83.268. The 50 DMA at 83.30 no doubt blocked its way. Higher dollar coming, but it clearly isn't annoying silver and gold at all, or dogging their steps.

Lo, watch and recall! Y'all have never seen a market any phonier than today's Dow. Until 2:30 it remained deep in the red, falling as low as 9,938. But wait! Are those the hooves of the Nice Government Men's cavalry I hear in the distance? What remained down all day suddenly moved to unchanged, and even rose 19.61 for a Dow close at 10,060.06. Whew! At least it didn't close below 10,000. Good save, Nice Government Men, but a tadge corny -- and obvious. S&P 500 closed up 3.46 at 1,055.33. My view is that stocks are beginning a third wave down that will shave off another 15% from here. Stay away from stocks.

The GOLD PRICE closed at $1,240.10, up $8.30. This was a solid gain added to yesterday's rise, and prelude to higher prices. Now the dollar stands flat-footed on $1,240 resistance and it is possible it could dawdle a day or so here, or even fall back a little. However, the most likely track, since gold has already surmounted its July low, is for the uptrend to keep on rising. For me the suspense is ended. I bought today, and will buy more if it rises higher tomorrow. No more waiting.

Beloved SILVER added today that missing ingredient, that one last confirmation to an uptrend: it rose 65.3c to close not only above 1870 resistance, but above 1900c at 1902.2c. I told y'all that very little resistance lay between 1870c and higher prices. Today silver showed y'all how a scalded dog runs: fast. I bought.

(Something funny showed in silver futures settlement prices today. August silver, which ought to close lower than any other month, closed at 1902.2c, yet that was higher than December, withch rose 53.2c to close at 1896c. Technically that is called a "backwardation" when the near by months show a premium to the more distant months. Distant months' prices reflect the cost of carry, and ought to be higher. When they are not higher, it can indicate a severe shortage of physical metal, also called a "short squeeze." I am not calling it that, only observing that technical backwardation today.)

Silver might linger here a day or two to catch its breath, but what difficulties lie above us? Very little resistance, just the June high at 1946c and the May high at 1981c. When silver clears that last price, the only the 2008 high at 2068.5c will remain to block its path.

Yes, yes, 'tis still possible silver and gold might fall back, but most all the odds fall on the side of higher prices.

That said, tomorrow is Options Expiry, so you can expect the Bad Boys to be out in force, trying to work the market down so all those calls they’ve sold above 1800c and $1,200 will expire worthless. No matter what happens, I don't think they can break this market tomorrow, but I watch.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.

If the Gold Price Closes Above $1235 Stop Waiting and Buy Gold

Gold Price Close Today : 1231.00
Change : 4.10 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.369
Change : 0.386 cents or 2.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1518.00
Change : 8.00 or 0.5%

Palladium Price Close Today : 487.00
Change : 1.00 or 0.2%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 67.02
Change : -1.210 or -1.8%

Dow Industrial : 10,040.45
Change : -133.96 or -1.3%

US Dollar Index : 83.14
Change : -0.119 or -0.1%

Just about the time you believe you have markets scoped out, they do the opposite of what you expect.

Oh, I don't mean the dollar index or stocks. The dollar index fell a measly 11.9 basis points to 83.137, 0.17%, a meaningless jiggle. Dollar couldn't pierce 83.55, and fell sharply to 82.85, then consolidated. However, remember that yesterday we saw it knocking against its top Bollinger band and its 50 DMA, so there's no surprise or intermediate term trend change here, merely a predictable correction.

And stocks? They fell 133.96, 1.32% to 10,040.45, hovering above the psychologically-magical 10,000 after making a low at 9,991. S&P 500 lost 7.08 to close at 1,051.87. Y'all know that when stocks break that 10,000 mark investors will panic, and panickers sell, so the fall will feed on itself, like a California brush fire. Stay away from stocks.

But silver and gold prices refused to behave as they ought in an Options Expiry week. Options expire on Thursday, but both rose to the top of their trading range: silver rose 38.6c to 1836.9c and gold rose $4.10 to $1,231.00. Perhaps to pull in more suckers?

GOLD was smashed down to $1,210 on the opening and simply refused to stay there. It shrugged that off and flew straight up to $1,235, then leveled out flat around $1,230. 'Twasn't supposed to do that, but then, the market tells me I don't tell the market.

Look objectively at the chart. Tear off the label on the top. What sayeth the chart? It says gold is at the top of the range, and you wait to buy it until it breaks out. You may end up paying a little more, but you won't buy it and watch it drop back to $1,200 at least. I guessing gold will post one more leg down, maybe not to $1,210, but one more down anyway. On the upside, if it closes above $1,235, stop waiting and buy it.

SILVER clearly had a bunch of buy-stop orders sitting at 1800 or 1805c. Low was 1775 just after the open, and then silver popped up like a basketball held under water in a swimming pool, clear to 1843c. It closed near the top of that range at 1836.9c, but recall that 1777c was the 200 day moving average.

Because silver stands at the top of its trading range, I would rather wait for that one more wave down that confirms the downmove is complete. However, if silver trades (not closes!) above 1870c, I would buy it because if it trades above there it will close above there, and very little resistance stands above 1870c. That means, if silver clears that barrier, it will run like a scalded dog.

On this day in 1857 the New York branch of the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company failed, precipitating one of the most severe economic crises in US history. Bankers restricted transactions, and panic broke out in stock and financial markets that lasted for several months.

'Twas the same old story we know so well, bust of a boom created by bank overlending. Foreign capital fled the US, grain and cotton prices fell, goods inventories mounted up, and a railroad building bubble burst and lines defaulted on debt. Land bubbles hat had followed the railroad lines also burst.

Worse still, the SS Central America transporting $2 - $4 million in gold from the San Francisco mint, sank in a hurricane on 11 September, sharpening the liquidity crisis. The crisis climaxed on 14 October 1857, Suspension Day, when banking in New York and New England was suspended. In the aftermath economies around the world and in the US contracted.

The Central America wreck was located on 11 September 1987 and the total value of the recovered gold estimated at $100 - $150 million. The discovery wrecked the market for 1857-S double eagles, which until the salvage had been fairly rare, but not afterwards.

Today let's think about egg recalls, and how your rulers parley them into more power for themselves, and worse food for you.

The regulators whine and moan about the health dangers, they need more power, everybody's gonna die or at least be badly disfigured, etc., etc. Wave the bloody shirt of grotesque possibilities. All this helps them pass a new "Food Safety Bill", which will make the world safe for gigantic agribusiness corporations. At the same time it will tighten the screws on, and put out of business, thousands of small, clean farming operations.

Note the blame shifting, essential ingredient of this tactic: the eggs are guilty. Not the factory farming Confinement Animal Feeding Operation (CAFO) technique that crowds 25,000 animals together, or de-beaks and cages chickens so tightly they can barely turn around, and then must needs pound the antibiotics down the chickens' throats to keep them alive in such filthy and crowded conditions. Whoops! All those antibiotics also breed SUPER-salmonella, resistant to almost all antibiotics, as a side benefit riding on your factory farmed eggs.

Meanwhile, your small, local farm selling eggs has none of these problems, because their chickens run in pasture, and do what chickens do, scratching and eating bugs with a little grass as a garnish. Whoa! Could that protein their bodies naturally desire be the reason why yard eggs have yellow yolks that stand up proudly, as against CAFO eggs that slouch with shame, so white are their yolks?

Friends, it's the same with your milk, dairy products, and meat. The job of government regulation is to stifle all competition against the corporations, although they carefully masquerade as protecting you against the health dangers their own methods create.

Is this a great racket, or what?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2010, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down. Whenever I write "Stay out of stocks" readers inevitably ask, "Do you mean precious metals mining stocks, too?" No, I don't.