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Wednesday, October 01, 2014

Silver and Gold Prices Rose with the Gold Price Up 0.34 Percent at $1,214.60

1-Oct-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,210.504.100.34%
Silver Price, $/oz17.210.201.20%
Gold/Silver Ratio70.337-0.603-0.85%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01420.00010.86%
Platinum Price1,287.70-10.80-0.83%
Palladium Price787.708.751.12%
S&P 5001,946.16-26.13-1.32%
Dow16,804.71-238.19-1.40%
Dow in GOLD $s286.98-5.06-1.73%
Dow in GOLD oz13.88-0.24-1.73%
Dow in SILVER oz976.45-25.72-2.57%
US Dollar Index86.00-0.40-0.46%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Finally, finally the GOLD PRICE rose! And silver! Gold climbed 0.34% or $4.10 to $1,214.60 while silver skyrocketed 20.4 cents (1.2%) to $17.21. Never thought I'd be thankful to see silver at $17.21, but I am.

Yesterday SILVER PRICE low came at $16.85, today at $16.86, so there's a little double bottom there. On a daily chart the moves looks impulsive, that is, it appears that markets direction is UP.

My gut tells me that today was the turn for metals, but then, my gut also tells me sometimes to eat Thai food, so my gut's not too reliable. Before I will trust my gut or my instinct, I want that silver to PROVE itself by smashing through $17.50, and then through the downtrend line at $17.75, and pushing on toward the 20 DMA at $18.24. Y'all watch it now! When that silver makes its mind up to rise, it'll blind you.

The GOLD PRICE has made a two day bottom about $1,205, but was stopped today by $1,220. That won't do. I want to see gold beat $1,232 (20 DMA). I remind y'all that gold has walked through its downtrend line, so it stands outside the downtrend but has not yet begun to rally seriously.

Yea! MACD turned up for gold today, and it is climbing up out of oversold (RSA at 33.57).

'Tis nothing yet more than a feeling, but with stocks plummeting and the dollar hesitating, things look better for silver and gold prices.

Whooo-eee! Them stocks took a bad beating with an uglystick today!

Dow dove 238.19 (-1.4%) to land at 16,804.71. S&P500 plunged 26.13 (-1.32%) to 1,946.16.

It's always helpful to take stock (owch!) of these falls. Here's how far indices have fallen since their last highs:

Dow Jones Industrial Average, -3.2%

S&P500 -3.6%

Nasdaq Comp., -4.1%

Nasdaq 100, -3.3%

Wilshire 5000, -4.0%

Russell 2000 small cap, -10.55%.

Now look inside the Dow and S&P500. Both have fallen below their last lows (16,937 and 1,978). Both are below their 20 and now their 50 day moving averages (16,932 and 1,976). Relative strength indicators stand below 50 mark (40.33 and 36.81). MACD and full stochastics point down. Finally, volume is rising as price falls, reinforcing the move and building steam. The more it falls, the more people sell.

Whether we saw the ultimate top in September or that comes later in the year, stocks are now in full-gear correction mode. Durn! I forgot to mention that the Dow has fallen through its uptrend line from March 2009.

Dow in gold flashed its first confirmation of a trend reversal downwards today by closing below the 20 DMA (13.87 oz or G$286.72 gold dollars) at 13.83 oz (G$285.89), down 1.92%. All indicators point down, another reason I believe that the Dow in Gold has pinpointed the top in stocks.

Numbers for the Dow in Silver showing up on Stockcharts today differ from what I saw and reported yesterday, but because it was likely the high, I report it to you at 1,004.59 oz (S$1,298.86 silver dollars).

Today the Dow in Silver fell 2.55% to 979.01 oz (S$1,265.79). DiS still needs to close below its 20 dma (938 oz now or S$1,212.77 to confirm reversal, but that's not in doubt. Oversoldness is rapidly falling (RSI now 68.29), other indicators rolling over earthward.

By the way, a "dollar" of silver is defined by law as 371.25 grains or 0.7734375 troy ounce. That means that S$1,000 contains 773.4375 ounce of silver newly minted, and that $1.2929 = one troy ounce.

US dollar index backed down four basis points to 86, so has not yet evidenced a reversal. Remains historically overbought.

Euro lost 0.1% to end at $1.2640. It giveth no sign of turning up, but has left behind two gaps, which looks like a completed move.

Yen got tired of people calling it "Skinny" and kicking sand in its face and today rared up 0.585 to 91.74. That appears to be a reversal. MACD has turned up, but still needs to rise more to confirm.

Mercy, me, look at that 10 year treasury note yield! That thang pulled the plug today, falling 4.19% to 2.403%. Remember that bond yields move opposite to bond prices. People fleeing stocks are pressing into bonds for "safety." Ain't that a joke, now, anybody fleeing to the sorry debt of the US Government priced in scrofulous sinking dollars! I will admit the US government hasn't defaulted on its debt as often as Argentina, but I count at least three times, not counting the daily default by chronic, intentional inflation. Dollars tomorrow will always be worth less than dollars today.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, September 30, 2014

The Gold Price Dropped $7.00 to Close $1,210.50

30-Sep-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,210.50-7.00-0.57%
Silver Price, $/oz17.01-0.51-2.91%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.1811.6732.41%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0140-0.0003-2.35%
Platinum Price1,298.505.800.45%
Palladium Price774.955.700.74%
S&P 5001,972.29-5.51-0.28%
Dow17,042.90-28.32-0.17%
Dow in GOLD $s291.041.190.41%
Dow in GOLD oz14.080.060.41%
Dow in SILVER oz1,002.1727.562.83%
US Dollar Index86.040.300.35%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE slid $7.00 (0.6%) $1,210.50 today while silver dove 2.9% (51 cents) to 1700.6c.

The SILVER PRICE made a new low for the move at $16.85, but climbed back to $17.00. Gold, too, touched a new low at $1,204.30, but gold's indicators (I'm telling y'all) are turning up. Nothing changed today, except that silver became even more oversold than it was yesterday.

The Dow measured in the Silver and Gold Price, the struggling stock market, the acutely overbought dollar and acutely oversold silver and gold prices all keep screaming at me that somewhere here there is a 180 degree reversal. But when? WOULD YOU BUY GOLD AT $1,180.28?

Markets teach humility: never say never. US dollar index rose again today, up 0.35% (thirty basis points) to 86.04, a four year high.

Now what in the world could push a no-good, low white-trash, absolutely unbacked, scrofulous, scabby fiat currency like the US dollar to new highs? As Yogurt said in the movie Spaceballs, "Moichendizing!" Y'all live in a world of marketing, spin, appearance, and illusion, along with a public that beats world history for gullibility and docility. Today all the gullible are running after the airy US dollar, tomorrow the euro, next day the yen, whatever the fashion is, because underneath the reality never changes.

But what do I know? I'm only a nat'ral born durn'd fool from Tennessee, not one of them P.T. Barnum central bankers.

The dollar's rise caused its comrades in leprosy, the euro and yen, to stumble and tumble. Euro gapped down and ended at $1.2631, down 0.45%. Yen lost 0.15% to 91.22 cents/Y100.

I can only look at those three charts and stare like a fool at a tennis match. Euro and Yen are oversold above all measure, US dollar is overbought by same measure. One has to suspect the dollar's rise is one of those fads hedge funds fall prey to, which will end as suddenly and sharply as it began. But one has been fooled before.

Stocks tried to rally, but ran out of steam before noon and slid down the mountain. Dow lost 28.32 (0.17%) to 17,042.90 (sliding toward 17,000) while the S&P500 lost 5.51 (0.28%) to 1,972.29. Neither index could close above its 20 day moving average, and the DandP500 couldn't even close above its 50 DMA.

Dow in Gold rose 0.17% today to 14.07 oz (G$290.85 gold dollars), still sawing back and forth as it tops. That may sound like a presumptuous pronouncement, but everything about the Dow in Gold is headed down, all indicators.

Dow in silver, on the other hand, won't stay put. Added 2.19% today (thanks to silver's big fall) and ended at 999.17 oz (S$1,291.86 silver dollars). Ain't long for this world up there.

I waxed curious about this here big rally of the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver since August 2011. See, they both fell about 90% from their 1999 and 2001 peaks, so I was curious to see how much of that fall they have corrected in this mighty rally. Of that 2,261 oz DiS fall, today brings it to a 33% correction. Of the Dow in gold's 38.66 oz fall from its roughly 45 oz high in 1999, today's close has corrected about 22%.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, September 29, 2014

The Gold Price Remains Oversold Adding $3.40 Closing Today at $1,217.50

29-Sep-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,217.503.400.28%
Silver Price, $/oz17.52-0.04-0.21%
Gold/Silver Ratio69.5080.3360.49%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0144-0.0001-0.48%
Platinum Price1,307.805.800.45%
Palladium Price789.305.700.73%
S&P 5001,977.8016.860.86%
Dow17,071.22167.350.99%
Dow in GOLD $s289.852.040.71%
Dow in GOLD oz14.020.100.71%
Dow in SILVER oz974.6111.531.20%
US Dollar Index85.74-0.01-0.01%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE added $3.40 today to close Comex, where the black shirts on the floor take no prisoners, at $1,217.50. Silver backed off 3.6 cents to $17.516. Both silver and GOLD PRICES left behind sideways trails today.

Well, why don't they break down worse? Silver broke that triple bottom line around $18.60, waterfalled, but now has stopped. The gold price broke its uptrend line from the December 2013 bottom, but has only eased down through September a maximum of $65 at its lowest so far. End of the world seems a long time coming.

Gold flirteth still with oversold. Volume is drying up. MACD has turned positive. What if the dollar takes a dip and all those hedge funds who have shorted gold and silver to buy dollars suddenly find themselves losers? They'll back out of those trades faster'n a tom cat out of the Westminster Kennel Club show.

The SILVER PRICE remains massively oversold. From today's close it needs to rise $0.50 to break $18.00 and the downtrend line.

Get this clear in your mind: neither silver nor the gold price have turned up yet, in spite of all these signs. But when you see the leaves falling off the trees, you don't look for spring. Besides, a thought keeps popping up in my mind. I know of no other asset that can carry and maintain value outside the financial system. Gold and silver don't depend on any corporation to pay a dividend, government to give give a stamp of approval, or anything else. People value them because they are gold and silver, and outside that whole fiat money-central banking system. They've been money for over 6,000 years of human history. I reckon they'll make it a few more years.

Well, that cinches it! The CNN Money headline today was, "The US dollar is on top of the world." Anytime a headline like that appears in a general circulation publication, it usually signals the end of a trend, or at least the start of a correction.

US dollar today lost nothing, one big basis point, to 85.74, so it is holding on, but at an overbought level that hard to swallow (RSI at 79.73), and it has been overbought for a month and a half. Way overdue for a correction (as I've been saying for days on end.)

The yen and the euro are wondering when the Dollar is going to fall, too. Euro today made another new low close for the move, down 0.06% to $1.2685. Yen also made another new low close for the move, 91.34 c/Y100, down 0.22%. Both remain as oversold as the dollar is overbought.

Ten year treasury note yield nearly touched its 50 DMA today. If we have been watching no more than a correction and it still intends to rise, this would be the right place to reverse gears.

Stocks got roughed up today. Dow opened down 175, losing most everything it had gained on Friday, but worked its way back up to close down only 41.93 (0.25%) at 17,071.22. S&P 500 lost 5.05 (also 0.25%) to 1,977.80.

Wonder what will happen with the Dow breaks 17,000 this time? I bet that thought leaves the Nice Government Men sweating scorpions.

Now my mind turneth to the Dow measured in metals. The late unpleasantness in stocks has been mirrored by topping/churning in the Dow in Silver and Dow in Gold. Dow in gold looks like a spread turkey wing, all jagged feathers showing, up and down with the wild stock market volatility and relative flatness in gold. It closed today at 14.01 oz (G$289.61 gold dollars), down 0.15%. DiG has fallen and is falling out of its overbought state. MACD has turned down, as have Rate of Change and full stochastics. Next confirmation comes with a close below the 20 day moving average, now at 13.82 oz (G$285.68). 'Nother one of those 200 point down days in stocks will pop that out.

Poor, dear silver, the Rodney Dangerfield of precious metals! Dow in silver rose 0.84% to 977.73 oz. (S$1,264 silver dollars). Here, too, a closely jagged graph mirrors the struggle of a market turning over. We've seen the blow-off and are now witnessing the hovering before the plunge.

About this date in 1916 John D. Rockefeller became the world's first billionaire. In 1914 Rockefeller hired the founder of public relations, Ivy Lee (born in Cedartown, Georgia) to advise him because he had a public image a little worse than Attilla the Hun but a little better than Beelzebub. Ivy Lee advised him to carry lots of dimes in his pockets and hand 'em out to kids when he went out in public. It worked -- with the kids, at least. Probably didn't fool anybody else. The Muckraker Upton Sinclair nicknamed him "Poison Ivy" after Lee tried to send bulletins saying that coal miners shot in the Ludlow Massacre were "victims of an over- turned stove."

On 29 September 2008 as Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual went bankrupt, the Dow Jones industrial Average fell 777.68 points, largest single day loss in its history.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, September 26, 2014

The Gold Price Fell $1.20 this Week Ending at $1,214.10

19-Sep-1426-Sep-14Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,215.301,214.10-1.20-0.1
Silver Price, $/oz.17.78117.4770.304-1.7
Gold/Silver Ratio68.34869.4681.1201.6
Silver/gold ratio0.01460.0144-0.0002-1.6
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)293.92291.38-2.55-0.9
Dow in gold ounces14.2214.10-0.12-0.9
Dow in Silver ounces971.81979.187.370.8
Dow Industrials17,279.7417,113.15-166.59-1.0
S&P5002,010.401,982.85-27.55-1.4
US dollar index84.8685.750.891.0
Platinum Price1,338.801,303.50-35.30-2.6
Palladium Price812.35783.55-28.80-3.5

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE today tumbled again, down $7.10 (0.6%) to $1,214.10. Silver, gainsaying gold, rose 9.8 cents (0.81%) to $17.47

Thursday's 24 hour trading in silver saw three bottoms about $17.40, off of which silver rallied today to $17.73 about 3:30 a.m. eastern time. But the downwave from that high seems to have dropped in three legs, which, if accurate, suggests it was correcting the upmove. In other words, the direction of trend is up.

That close at $17.477 cents was classic tape painting, since I hardly saw the SILVER PRICE trading under $17.62 all day. End of the day found silver at $17.68.

On a five day chart the GOLD PRICE made a low this week around $1,206, climbed sharply off that Thursday bottom only to be smacked down again today, but down to a higher low ($1,212.80).

Gold closed today, as it did yesterday, ABOVE its downtrend line from 1 September. Yes, that does mean something. Add to that the MACD turning up, and the RSI moving up out of oversold-land, and there are the ingredients for an upturn. However, no one has yet lit the eye under the pan.

Next week and October promise an abundance of pain for stock investors. But until that US dollar Index takes a breather, silver and gold will keep struggling. Look for them to stage a sudden, sharp rally within the next two weeks. Gold may keep chiseling lower in the meantime. A break below $1,205 sends gold lower, above $1,237 sends it higher. Silver needs to clear $18.00 to begin to turn up, and $18.50 to convince a crowd.

About the time my treacherous brain thinks it's time to throw in the towel on gravity and monetary reality and call Mother Janet Yellum a winner, common sense slaps my jaws and brings me back. I interviewed the great Harry Browne in 1993 when I was researching for Silver Bonanza, and he said one thing I've never forgotten: the size of the rally depends on the preceding government price suppression. So, the longer the government suppressed silver and gold, all the way through the 1960s and 1970s, the stronger the eventual rally and blow up.

In the past 5 years the Fed has increased is balance sheet by about 4 times, a number for which history offers no comparison. The Fed has also suppressed interest rates to zero percent, and, I doubt not, the prices of silver and gold. At the same time, its money printing has driven the stock market farther into the stratosphere.

What happens when the suppression can no longer be continued, and it all blows up?

This is all confusion until you look at the chart and realize that, for all the big moves up and down, stocks have steadily worked lower with lower lows and lower highs, in other words, a downtrend. Yesterday the S&P500 closed lower than its last low (19 September), which proclaims gravity wreaking its vengeance. Today's rally changed nothing. However, it does seem a bit suspicious, even to such an unsuspicious mind as mine, that stocks could find no traction until 2:00, when "some" Big Buyer entered the market. I won't say "Nice Government Men" of the Plunge Protection Team, but y'all know that's who I mean.

Dow in gold rose 1.19% (thanks to gold's fall) to end at 14.03 oz (G$290.03 gold dollars). Still needs to close under the 20 DMA (13.78 oz, G$284.86) to begin to confirm a reversal. However, the MACD had turned down already, as has the RSI.

Dow in Silver ended at 969.58 oz (S$1,253.60 silver dollars), up 0.7%, after making a new high on Wednesday at 974.25oz (S$1,259.64). Still wildly overbought.

On 26 September 1900 the US Mint ceased minting $1 and $3 gold coins and the three cent piece. Why, y'all ask, were they minting $3 gold coins and 3 cent coins? Because they bought a sheet of postage stamps, why else?

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.