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Thursday, July 24, 2014

The Gold Price Broke it's Support and Avalanched 1.07 Percent to Close Comex at $1,290.60

24-Jul-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,290.60-13.90-1.07%
Silver Price, $/oz20.38-0.58-2.75%
Gold/Silver Ratio63.3391.0781.73%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0158-0.0003-1.70%
Platinum Price1,472.70-12.30-0.83%
Palladium Price869.96-3.35-0.38%
S&P 5001,987.980.970.05%
Dow17,083.80-2.83-0.02%
Dow in GOLD $s273.632.871.06%
Dow in GOLD oz13.240.141.06%
Dow in SILVER oz838.4322.912.81%
US Dollar Index80.940.060.07%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
Oh, owch! Welcome back, volatility! The GOLD PRICE broke that $1,305 support hard and avalanched $13.90 (1.07%) to close Comex at $1,290.60. Silver sledded 2.75% or 57.6 cents to 2037.6, right on the 200 DMA.

I note between gritted teeth that both the silver and GOLD PRICE punched through their 300 day moving averages today, as well as the uptrend lines which had been supporting them.

The SILVER PRICE landed on its 200 DMA (2035c) as did gold ($1,287) in this twin fall, but gold rose up off its 200. Gold has some internal lateral support that runs back to 2013 right at $1,387, too.

Last gold price breakout occurred around $1,280, so everybody expects this correction will fall that far and stop, which means it probably won't. Another target is a roughly 75% correction of the preceding rise from $1,240.20 to $1,346.80, or about $1,265. Of course, it could stop at that $1,280, IF it breaks the 200 DMA ($1,287). Does this sound as if I am vacillating? Ought to, because I am.

Silver enjoys strong support at 2000c and at 1975c. 50 DMA also stands ready to catch it at 2015c. I'll buy a little tomorrow one way or the other, just so I don't miss out.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose 1.7% to 63.339 from yesterday's 62.258. That catches my eye because it matches the high a couple of weeks ago. Ratio looks overstretched to the upside, which hints that the silver and gold's fall will be short-lived.

In this Best of All Possible Worlds, the sick Portuguese Espirito Santo Financial Group that owns 20% of sick Banco Espirito Santo is trying to dodge behind the bankruptcy curtain in Luxemburg. That's the third company in a week linked to the Espirito Santo family.

But in this Best of All Possible World's bankruptcy is no stigma, makes no one nervous, and roils no stock indices. I reckon they all look at it as the Best of All Possible Bankruptcies.

In the US all indices but the S&P500 wavered slightly, but a bit nervously. S&P500 added 0.97 (0.05%) to rise to a new high above yesterday's at 1,987.98. No, that was not an epochal accomplishment, and only nudges the S&P500 up a little closer to its upper trading channel line. It is rising on rising volume. In this Best of All Possible Worlds, everything is possible.

The Dow dropped for the second day running, down 2.83 (0.02%) to 17,083.80. Trading out into the nose cone of a bearish rising wedge, it can rise higher, even to 17,300, maybe even overthrow the upper boundary of that wedge. Yet a certain doominess hovers over all, for an end to this looms ahead shortly.

But in this Best of All Possible Worlds, anything is possible.

Steady-ish stocks and falling metals pushed the Dow in gold and Dow in silver higher today. Dow in silver jumped to its 50 DMA (837.31 oz or S$1,082.58) and closed 2.63% higher at 836.83 oz (S$1,081.96). Dow in gold burst through its downtrend line and rose 1.06% to 13.24 oz (G$273.69 gold dollars). Y'all don't act like I didn't tell y'all this was coming. And it has further to rise still.

The Best of All Possible Scrofulous Fiat Currencies, the US Dollar, managed by the Best of All Possible Central Banks, rose six basis points (0.07%) today to end at 80.94. It appears to be rallying, and threatens a roughly two hundred basis point rally, i.e., to 82.75.

In this BOAPW even the euro rose today, up 0.03% to $1.3464, but still sick as a poisoned dog. Lower prices seem inevitable, but remember that all scrofulous, rotten fiat currencies are manipulated, subject to the secret cosmic motions and goofy policies that take hold of central bankers' minds.

The Yen has fallen all the way to the bottom side of its narrow triangle below its 20 DMA (98.46) and on top of its 50 DMA (98.23). If it makes one baby step lower, it falls out of the triangle for a long tumble.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Both Silver and Gold Prices Closed Right on Their Uptrend Lines, Gold Closed at $1,304.50

23-Jul-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,304.50-1.60-0.12%
Silver Price, $/oz20.95-0.01-0.06%
Gold/Silver Ratio62.261-0.038-0.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01610.00000.06%
Platinum Price1,485.00-2.60-0.17%
Palladium Price873.30-0.55-0.06%
S&P 5001,987.013.480.18%
Dow17,086.63-26.91-0.16%
Dow in GOLD $s270.76-0.09-0.03%
Dow in GOLD oz13.10-0.00-0.03%
Dow in SILVER oz815.51-0.78-0.10%
US Dollar Index80.890.040.05%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
Silver and GOLD PRICES went sideways with no excitement or flurry. Silver mislaid 1.3 cents to 2905.2c after a narrow range of 2110c to 2094c. Dullsville. Gold traded from $1,303.50 to $1,311.80 and gave up $1.60. Wake me up when something happens.

Both SILVER and gold closed right at their uptrend lines, without much change from yesterday. If they break that line, which I expect, they'll spike down and give y'all a chance to BACK UP THE TRUCK, MORTGAGE YOUR KIDS, and BUY A TRUCKLOAD.

Till then, I am patiently watching.

If you saw a fellow installing a lighting rod on his house, you'd say "I reckon he expects lightening."

If you saw a fellow installing a bomb shelter, you'd say, "I reckon he expects a nuclear war."

And if you saw the SEC adopt "reforms" that relieve money market funds of maintaining a $1.00 per share price and call this a "reform" and say they aim to "mitigate the risks of a run in money market funds and limit further contagion should a run occur," you would say, "I reckon they expect another Panic like 2008, and another run on money market funds."

SEC made that "reform" today. Draw your own conclusion. Why would they be closing the gates against a bank run -- IN ADVANCE? Simple: so that when the runs come, they can deny you your money.

While I've got y'all thinking for yourselves, y'all might like to ask yourself the all-important "Cui bono?" question about the downing of that Malaysian airliner over Ukraine: Who benefits? Would Putin or Russia benefit? Just the opposite. Is Putin stupid? Just the opposite. Who has the most to lose? Putin.

Here's another question: Why was that airliner 300 miles away from the typical flight path? See http://bit.ly/1rnxDvh

Finally, who benefits by fomenting war between Russia and the rest of the world?

Now let your mind wander back over some of the "false flag" operations of the last 150 years, and about this latest incident, ask yourselves, "Is it real, or Memorex?"

A sort of spooky calm hovers over markets. Stocks had an up and down day. The Dow and S&P500 gainsaid each other. S&P500 closed up 3.48 (0.2%) to 1,987.01,a new high, while the Dow fell 0.16% (26.91 to 17,086.63. Today's results bring no resolution: the S&P500 merely moved a step closer to its upper trading range boundary line, the Dow backed away from the top boundary of its bearish rising wedge. Only testimony from today's trading is "confusion." Investors are confused, causing indices to disagree.

Dow in Metals hardly changed enough to talk about. Dow in gold rose 0.15, Dow in silver rose 0.13%. Expect higher prices here.

US dollar index rose to an 8 month high against the puking sick euro today. Dollar index rose 4 basis points (0.06%) to 80.89. It needs to close above 81.10 to pierce that neckline I wrote about yesterday. Dollar is steadily rising.

Euro backed down 0.04% to $1.3461. Apparently it lacks the courage of convictions already expressed, namely, a journey to the earth's core.

Yen has twice, nay, thrice failed to break through the top boundary of a long narrow triangle. Today it lost 0.04% to 98.53. No strength showing in the currency of the Rising Sun.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, July 22, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Down Near the Uptrend Line at $1,306.10

22-Jul-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,306.10-7.60-0.58%
Silver Price, $/oz20.97-0.00-0.00%
Gold/Silver Ratio62.299-0.360-0.57%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01610.00010.58%
Platinum Price1,487.60-5.10-0.34%
Palladium Price873.85-2.30-0.26%
S&P 5001,983.539.900.50%
Dow17,113.5461.810.36%
Dow in GOLD $s270.862.540.95%
Dow in GOLD oz13.100.120.95%
Dow in SILVER oz816.292.990.37%
US Dollar Index80.850.230.29%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
Sorry, you can't get blood out of a turnip, and this turnip has been squeezed dry. Nothing happening in markets today, except a little bit in the US dollar index, & silver and GOLD PRICES weakening.

The GOLD PRICE was driven back $7.60 (0.6%) to $1,306.10, right above support, right near the uptrend line. The 300 day moving average is still holding it up, but gold is pushing toward the bottom. Will it break here? If it trades below $1,300 tomorrow, it will tumble to $1,290 or $1,280. On the other hand, if it rains airliners somewhere else in the world and gold closes above $1,330, gold has finished rising. My guess is gold has one more downward thrust left.

The SILVER PRICE lost 1/10 of a cent today, in a range from 2078c to 2112, and closed at 2096.5c. That's a dead market.

Silver hit the rising fan line from its early June low, remains above its 300 DMA, and is speaking out of both sides of its mouth. Silver has worked off much of its overboughtness in the RSI, but hasn't turned its other indicators up.

If silver breaks 2063c tomorrow, we'll get that other spike down toward 2035c.

Yes, I DO know that this is boring and frustrating, like waiting for homebrew to finish fermenting. All the same, they will resolve shortly. By mid-August silver & gold prices ought to be rallying again.

What do you expect in a summer market?

Stocks rose again today, breaking a 3 day down trend. This back & forth has been occurring regularly as the Dow builds a rising wedge. The S&P500 however, has remained in a rising trading range.

Today the S&P500 added 9.9 (0.5%) to 1,983.53 while the Dow rose 61.81 (0.36%) to 17,113.54. S&P500 will probably sprint for 2,000 before its tank is left gasless. Dow might hit 17,200. This should happen directly.

Strength in stocks is driving up the Dow in Metals. Dow in gold hit its downtrend line again today. It rose 0.85% to 13.10 oz (G$270.80 gold dollars). Indicators hint not very softly that it's going higher. You can see the chart here, Dow in gold has already laid two fan lines, which also hints at climbing further.

Dow in silver also points higher. It hit its downtrend line today, rising 0.16% to end at 814.62 oz (S$1,053.25 silver dollars).

Y'all don't complain. I warned y'all this was coming. It should not last much longer.

US Dollar Index, that scrofulous & scurvy scion of evil, rose 23 basis points (0.29%) to end at 80.85. As much as you can trust anything in the smoke & mirrors Central Bank House of Fun, the dollar is saying it will rise to that Neckline, having completed a right shoulder, break through the neckline, & scoot towards 82.75. But first, let's see what it does when it hits that neckline.

Y'all may have all sorts of troubles, even chiggers or poison ivy, but at least you don't own euros. Euro gapped down today to a new low for the move, smashing the $1.3500 level and closing at $1.3469, down 0.4%. Below this level stands no support until $1.3295, the November 2013 low. Then support steps down to $1.3111 and $1.2755.

Yen is laying low, still working out into the increasingly narrow nosecone of that triangle. Lost 0.05$ to 98.60. Been taking Thorazine.

If you want to roll your IRA from stocks or zero interest rates money market funds to silver or gold, go see New Direction IRA, www.newdirectionira.com. If you mention that the Moneychanger sent you, they will deduct half the cost of your first transaction fee until Friday, 15 August 2014.

This is the time to jump from stocks to silver & gold. After a 3 year correction, gold & silver are ready to rally and enter the greatest rise of their bull market, while stocks are ready to turn down for a long, long time. Time to roll over now. (I receive no payment to recommend New Direction.)

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.


- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, July 21, 2014

The Gold Price Rose $4.50 to Close at $1,313.70

21-Jul-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,313.704.500.34%
Silver Price, $/oz20.970.130.62%
Gold/Silver Ratio62.659-0.172-0.27%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01600.00000.27%
Platinum Price1,492.703.500.24%
Palladium Price876.15-4.35-0.49%
S&P 5001,973.63-4.59-0.23%
Dow17,051.73-48.45-0.28%
Dow in GOLD $s268.32-1.69-0.62%
Dow in GOLD oz12.98-0.08-0.62%
Dow in SILVER oz813.30-7.36-0.90%
US Dollar Index80.610.000.00%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
Today the GOLD PRICE rose $4.50 (0.34%) on Comex, ending at $1,313.70 Silver bumped up 12.8 cents (0.62%) to 2096.6c.

I know y'all probably don't pay no mind to the 300 day moving average, but starved for excitement as my life is, I watch it. I have been watching it for a coon's age, because closing above the 300 DMA and staying above the 300 DMA witnesses that the correction is over. So I want y'all to understand that when I say, "Silver remained above its 300 DMA today," that is a statement pregnant with meaning.

But the object is to close above the 300, then pull away above it. Hasn't done that yet.

Today the SILVER PRICE couldn't close above its 20 DMA (2108c), but also did not close below the rising trend line from the June bottom, today about 2080c. I expect silver will manage one more scary spike through that line, maybe as far as the 200 DMA at 2036c. There I would back up the truck and load 'er up.

GOLD PRICE is trapped in an even-sided triangle, nor could it climb over its 20 DMA. Uptrend line here comes in about $1,300. Spike to $1,380 is still possible.

Once again I caution that safe haven gains such as those occasioned by events in the Ukraine don't usually stick. But clearly for the present it is preventing further falls.

Patience should pay off here.

There's a proverb that nothing stinks worse than perfume gone bad, and there's nothing more shameful, ridiculous, or illogical than science gone political. You simply can't serve truth if you're aiming for a political result.

And of all the politically-driven scientific hogwash, "climate change" or "global warming" stands at the list's head. Not even as believable as the Tooth Fairy -- less evidence for its existence.

But one particular burr under the saddle of these political scientists has been cows. Because they are ruminants -- basically a grass fermentation barrel on legs -- cows produce gas out of both ends. Not as much as termites, I am told, which leaves you wondering who would devote a lifetime to studying termites' gas-passing customs.

But let all that go, and don't miss this: the premise of man-created global warming and the evils of carbon dioxide is simply hogwash. All the same, that doesn't slow down the Cow Persecutors.

Latest attack comes from an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (government science at its best) in a study that says beef causes 10 times the environmental impact of pork, poultry, dairy, and eggs. I will pass over in science the erring premise that compares raising beef the American industrial way (in feedlots) on grain rather than grass feeding on pasture. More, the study ignores that much land devoted to raising cattle is so marginal that it cannot be used for anything else. Finally, these "scientists," who may never have actually seen or touched a cow, do not notice that grazing grass actually IMPROVES the soil and, if properly managed, can restore as much as an inch of topsoil every ten years.

So for a truly healthy environment, go eat a steak tonight. Naww, make it TWO steaks, and grass-fed at that.

That Malaysian airliner shoot-down came back to haunt stocks today. Dow fell back 48.45 (0.28%) to 17,051.73. S&P500 lost 4.59 (0.23%) to 1,973.63. Inability to hold on to gains looks weak to me, but I am notoriously NOT stocks' best friend. Still expecting a large fall soon.

Dow in metals jiggled today, but remain tight-lipped. Both the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver remain about their 20 day moving averages, i.e., their momentum is upward. Dow in silver lost 0.67% to 811.52 oz (S$1,049.24 silver dollars), hovering above the 20 DMA. Dow in gold fell 0.47% to 12.98 oz (G$268.32 gold dollars). Most indicators appear to point higher, not the way I prefer it to go.

Air traffic over the Ukraine must be running investors into US bonds for safety (just think about that a minute, to get a flavor of what a lunatic world we live in). Of course, that drives the yield down. 10 year treasury note yield ended today a little lower at 2.474%. It is walking a line along a cliff where there's not enough room to swing a cat. Once misstep and it falls much further.

In trading this morning before New York opened the dollar index stumbled and fell to 80.42, but quickly rose back above 80.50 and flattened out the rest of the day around 80.60. Ended unchanged at 80.61. All that is right low volatility, but trend is up. Euro went nowhere, up 0.01% to $1.3524. Hanging over an abyss by a cotton thread. Yen barely jiggled today -- Hey, shake that thing by the shoulder and see if it's still alive! Down 0.03% to 98.64.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, July 18, 2014

Gold Price Could Drop to $1,290 and Stop, or Spike to $1,280 and Scare Every Gold Bug to Death

11-Jul-1418-Jul-14Change% Change
Gold Price, dollars/oz.1,337.001,309.20-27.80-2.1
Silver Price, cents/oz.2,141.102,083.80-57.30-2.7
Gold/silver ratio62.44562.8280.3830.6
Silver/gold ratio0.01600.0159-0.0001-0.6
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)261.97270.018.033.1
Dow in gold ounces12.6713.060.393.1
Dow in Silver ounces791.36820.6229.263.7
Dow Industrials16,943.8117,100.18156.370.9
S&P5001,967.571,978.2210.650.5
US dollar index80.2280.610.390.5
Platinum Price1,512.301,489.20-23.10-1.5
Palladium Price874.75880.505.750.7

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
Today the GOLD PRICE misplaced $7.50 (0.6%) to $1,309.20. Silver dropped 24.8 cents (1.2%) to 2083.8 at Comex close.

The GOLD PRICE bounced off its ruling downtrend line form the October 2012 top downward. Silver simply retraced all the gain it made yesterday. Assuming that's the B-leg of the correction completed, next week we ought to see lower lows than we saw this week, but not too low, I think. I can't see the SILVER PRICE dropping further than 2000c, if it falls that far. Gold could drop to $1,290 and stop, or spike to $1,280 and scare every gold bug to death. Gold has established an uptrend line from $1,240.20 on June 1 to this week's lows. 'Twill be fascinating to see if gold can hold that line, on Monday about $1,300.

But all that bars another airliner shot down, or banks collapsing like dominoes, or any of a hundred things I haven't even imagined yet. Face it, the world ain't too stable, and the least stable element is the currency and financial system.

Nacheral born durned fools like me always want to know WHY. It's fatal curiosity, nowadays, cause don't nothing make no sense no way. Yesterday stocks fell like the Rooshians wuz on Main Street, and today they rose and danced like they Cooter Brown drinking bustskull whiskey. "Why" remains a mystery of the universe as yet unrevealed, but it will be, one o' these days. And I wouldn't be a durned bit surprised to find the WHY didn't have a bunch of Nice Government Men behind it. Don't none of this have nothing to do with value.

Before I get in to that, Look at the week. It held a whipping for silver, gold, and platinum, but fat meat for stocks and the US dollar (go figure THAT).

After yesterday's 161 point nosedive, the Dow turned today and rose 123.37 (0.73%) to 17,100.18. S&P500 out did that, up 10.03% (20.1) to a 1,978.22 close.

For the nonce, today's rise cancels the chance of a Key Reversal downward in stocks. For the time being stocks float, but yet loometh nearby a fall. Watch out.

Today's stock reversal upward and metals fall sent the Dow in metals zig-zagging. Dow in Gold jumped 1.29% to 13.04 oz (G$269.56 gold dollars), and back above the 50 DMA. Dow in Silver bucked up as well, 2% to 817.02 oz (S$1,056.35 silver dollars). No conclusions to draw but "Still correcting it's long fall from early June to mid-July." Patience.

US dollar rose 39 basis points or 0.5% this week, an amazing dance for a currency without legs or substance. Ended today up 3 basis points to 80.61. It has broken out of an even-sided triangle headed at the least for 81.20. If the last 4 months' trading prove to be the upside head and shoulders it appears to be, then the dollar index could touch 82.75.

The euro bell through $1.3600 this week, gapped down, and reached down lower today. Today's low was $1.3491. A close below $1.3500 opens the currency equivalent of a black hold beneath the Franken-currency. Yen bid far yesterday to break out of its long narrow triangle (abuilding since February, yawn!), but fell back today -- all pop, no corn. Closed down 0.18% to 98.67.

Yield on the 10 year treasury note, which I use as a proxy for interest rates, fell this week along with the Malaysian airliner. Such catastrophes send people fleeing into US dollar government bonds, and when bonds rise, interest rates fall. More than that, though, the 10 year note yield is dancing with the top boundary of a trading channel from 2012 and 2013. 'Twas out of that channel's top the yield broke free June a year ago, so it remains weighty support. Should it fall through 2.475% the yield could fall quite a ways, leaving Janet Yellum smugger than a hound sucking duck eggs.

Good night, and joy be with you all.
Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, July 17, 2014

The Gold Price Shot Skyward, Up $17.10 to Close at $1,316.70

17-Jul-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,316.7017.101.32%
Silver Price, $/oz21.090.361.73%
Gold/Silver Ratio62.444-0.257-0.41%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01600.00010.41%
Platinum Price1,503.0018.001.21%
Palladium Price884.108.751.00%
S&P 5001,958.12-23.45-1.18%
Dow16,976.81-161.39-0.94%
Dow in GOLD $s266.53-6.07-2.23%
Dow in GOLD oz12.89-0.29-2.23%
Dow in SILVER oz805.12-21.73-2.63%
US Dollar Index80.58-0.00-0.00%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
About the time the airliner's crash was announced, the GOLD PRICE, which had been having a pretty calm day below $1,306 shot straight skyward to $1,325.90. For the day it rose $17.10(1.73%) and closed Comex at $1,316.70. Silver added 35.9 cents (1.32%) to close Comex at 2108.6c.

Before y'all go to jubilatin' and opening bottles, let me caution that these safe haven rallies last only about as long as the crisis dominates the headlines. More to the point, most corrections play out in an A-B-C wave counter to the main trend. If a market is correcting a rally, the correction will drop sharply ("A"), then rally, often as high as the point where the rally began ("B" waves can be stronger than a garlic milkshake), then finish the correction with one more fall ("C") usually to a lower low. As I said above, "cause" here should really be called "catalyst" for a move already in the market. It's sort of like my dear wife: if she wants to eat out, she will FIND a reason.

So today's rally was a B-leg in a correction. It took the SILVER PRICE above its 20 DMA (2106c), good, good, but it remains in a downtrend until it climbs higher than 2163c (last peak). The GOLD PRICE punched through its 20 DMA on the way up, hit its downtrend line from October 2012, then backed off to close just below that 20 DMA ($1,319.77). Again, a close higher than $1,346.80 (last peak) is necessary to call the correction over.

Of course, if today's events precipitate World War III, all bets are off and you'd better buy all the gold, silver, ammo, and dehydrated food you can afford.

A Chinese proverb says, "When the pupil is ready, the teacher appears." Of markets we might also say, "When the market is ready to turn, the cause appears." At least, that's what "technicians" argue against "fundamentalists," namely, that everything the market knows is already in the price, so for a market ready to turn, almost any old cause will do.

Lo, I am not that radically given to technical analysis, but the Dow today furnishes a case in point. "Overbought" does not even begin to describe the state of stocks, and they have been for a long time. Yesterday to the cheers of the unthinking, the Dow rose again and I reckon everybody tucked himself in bed thinking tomorrow would be like today, only more so.

Only, it wasn't. Today was the day a market looking for a cause to turn down (Stocks) met a cause sufficient (Malaysian Airlines plane shot down by a missile over the Ukraine). Stocks sank like your Rolex watch into the Greers Ferry Lake over the side of the bass boat.

Dow lost 161.39 (0.94%) to end at 16,976.81, giving back almost all the last three days' gains, closing at the bottom of the day's range, and almost but not quite breaking through the 20 day moving average. S&P500 lost 23.45 (1.18%) to 1,958.12. Along the way it punctured both the 20 DMA (1,967.14) and closed through the top boundary of that rising wedge it left behind since may, AND closed below the bottom border of its upward trading channel wherein it hath dwelt since mid June.

Altogether a demoralizing performance. Every indicator I watch is pointing stubbornly down, down.

Today's stock tumble helped the Dow in Metals. Dow in gold fell 2.2% to 12.29 oz (GS254.05 gold dollars), below the 50 DMA (13.00 oz or G$268.73) and through internal support at 12.91 oz (G$266.87). 20 DMA stands at 12.85 oz (G$265.63), easily close enough to be crossed tomorrow.

Dow in silver dropped 2.37% to 803.29 oz (S$1,038.60 silver dollars), also below its 20 DMA (805.06 oz or S$1,040.89). I want to see this confirmed before I say itfinally has turned down again.

I reckon not a single Nice Government Man anywhere in the world got any peace today. They were all staring at computer screens and sweating bullets trying to keep the currency markets from going wild after that Malaysian Airliner was shot down. US dollar index ended at 80.58, down just 4 basis points, nothing. Euro, which stands to lose most by a shooting war next door in Ukraine, actually rose 0.01% to $1.3526. It's still hanging over Grand Canyon by low-test fishing line. Yen benefitted more than the other rotten, nasty, corrupt, wicked fiat currencies. It rose 0.5% to 98.45 and is bumping the top boundary of that old even-sided triangle I've been writing about. Japan is a long ways from Ukraine.

In a terrible shoot out in California today, three of four bank robbers were killed along with two of three hostages. You really have to wonder how anybody could be stupid enough to rob a bank. Banks have no money. For the last 40 years, they haven't kept much currency on hand, either, rarely as much as $10,000. I had a customer who panicked half his state a few years ago when he went into the bank and told 'em he wanted every bit of his $300,000 right there on the counter. He was told they didn't keep that much on hand, and they'd have to order it from the Fed. Fine, he said (he's pretty feisty), order it! I still laugh when I think how those bankers' faces must have looked.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.