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Friday, May 29, 2015

The Price of Gold Closed Higher for the Month Ending at $1,189.40

22-May-1529-May-15Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,204.001,189.40-14.60-1.2
Silver Price, $/oz.17.0316.6840.346-2.0
Gold/Silver Ratio70.69971.2900.5910.8
Silver/gold ratio0.01410.0140-0.0001-0.8
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)313.03313.030.00-0.0
Dow in gold ounces15.1415.140.00-0.0
Dow in Silver ounces1,070.581,079.528.940.8
Dow Industrials18,232.0218,010.68-221.34-1.2
S&P5002,126.062,107.39-18.67-0.9
US dollar index96.1196.970.860.9
Platinum Price1,147.901,111.00-36.90-3.2
Palladium Price784.00776.75-7.25-0.9

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Every market seems frozen this week. Markets break, but then won't follow through. Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES gold broke big on Tuesday, but dropped only to the same old support.

Today marks both week-end and month-end. I'll talk about the month below, but the week was also interesting. Contrary to the expectations of many, silver and gold prices did not collapse in a heap, but lost chump change.

Today the PRICE OF GOLD added $1.30 to $1,189.40. While SILVER PRICE climbed 3.1 cents to $16.684. For the month, both silver and gold prices closed higher.

Silver Price
Gold Price
While the seasonal outlook for silver and gold prices calls for lower prices into June's end, "seasonals" average 30 years, and remember, the Average Height of a 7'11' giant and a 3'5" midget is 5'8". However, both silver and gold prices have drawn out six-month even-sided triangles, surged up out of the triangles, traded through their 200 day moving averages, and traded back only to kiss the triangle's upper boundary where they broke out. Relatively flat markets have left the 20 and 50 day moving averages snarled up, and price of gold (chart on the left) below and silver (chart on the right) is between them.

If the even-sided triangle is the pattern ruling silver and gold prices, they will not break that upper triangle boundary, and will turn around when they hit it. On Monday that's $16.50 for silver and $1,170 for the price of gold, so those are good buy targets. If these were any markets but silver and gold, mired in pessimism after a 4 year correction, everybody would be jumping at them.

If I'm wrong, they can (1) sink to the triangle's bottom boundary (on Monday $1,145 and $16.15) or (2) sink much further. A guess says to November lows at $1,130 and $15.00.

Dow lost as much as gold. Dollar index had a surge, but that may have been no more than a correction to its foregoing fall. Greek ghost continues to hang over everything. I wish they'd go ahead and default, as they must in the end anyway, and get it over with. Bear always in mind and never forget that this Greek crisis is a crisis only because they owe money to the big banks. If they owed it to you or me, they'd just stiff us and none of the euro-muckety-mucks would say boo.

Let's focus first on the US dollar index, as all fiat moneys are a never failing fountain of overflowing woe. The dollar index shot up Tuesday and Wednesday to make a perfect 61.8% correction of the fall from 100.27 on 13 April to 93.15 on 17 May. It hit 97.88, closed 97.48. Since then it has backed off and not quite fallen below 96.50 support.

Two interpretations are possible. No. 1, the dollar's correction from April through May was only a correction in a larger uptrend, which the dollar is now resuming on its way to 109. No. 2, the dollar's uptrend from July 2014 to April 2015 was driven by speculative, trend following money. Because a high exchange rate kills US competitiveness in the export market, industry will rebel at a high dollar and the Fed, heroic and courageous as usual, will cave and let the dollar sink again. Therefore, the dollar's upward move ended in April.

The market will tell us only when the dollar index either exceeds this recent high or falls through 96.50 support. Today it lost 8 basis points to end at 96.97.

Who in his right mind will buy euros now with the Greek crisis unresolved? Nobody much. However, the pattern on the euro chart with a gap down, a little trading sideways, then another gap down looks like a completed downmove. Euro rose today 0.23% to $1.0988.

The yen crumbled this week, breaking down with a mighty GAP! Out of its 6 month trading range. Floor had been 82.25, but the yen fell as low as 80.35, and ended down another 0.16% today to 80.58. Japanese Nice Government Men are managing the yen's exchange rate down to the earth's molten core, depreciating as fast as they can to steal a march on American exports.

The rally in US interest rates that began mid-April played out this week. Ten year treasury note closed below its 200 DMA 3 days running. Today it lost another 1.64% and close at 2.095%. Confirming that fall the 30 year bond yield fell this week below its 20 DMA and today closed at its 200 DMA at 2.847%. Looks like the party's over till next time.

What snide things can I say about stocks? Say, Moneychanger, what have you got

Say, Moneychanger, what have you got against stocks? Aren't you a capitalist?

Well, I'd have nothing against stocks if there were a real market in stocks, but the present market 'tis no more than a puff job by the Federal Reserve. Its rise has nothing to do with the underlying economy, which is sick as a plague victim with the flu. Hence, my snideness, yea, seasoned with snark.

Stocks managed to rise this month only because they had such a terrible month in April. Yes, the Dow and S&P 500 made new highs this month, but by millimeters and the gains were so slick they couldn't hold on to them. Dow Transports broke six month support at 8500 and sank to a new low today at 8,299.75, cascading like Niagara Falls. Yesterday the Shanghai Exchange, which has been in a frenzy since last July, lost 4.6%, and today fell again. German Dax has been creamed since its April high, and any close below today (11,413.82) will break the uptrend line from October 2014. London's FTSE is rolling over like the US markets.

Today the Dow lost 115.44 (0.64%) and closed at 18,010.68. After all the festivities, all the up days and down days, the Dow lost 221.34 this week. S&P lost 13.4 (0.63%) today and ended 2,107.39, 18.67 lower than last Friday.

For stocks, the wad's been shot, the die's been cast, the jug has been corked. Remember the proverb, "Sell in May and go away." Summer is not a happy time for stocks, and in their strong season they have proven unable to make a credible continuation of their six year bull run. Whoa! What's that up roosting up in them trees? Izzat buzzards?

Blast! Did I forget to mention that even the yankee government's lying numbers had to be revised today to reduce previously reported puny growth of 0.2% to a 0.7% shrinking.

Dow in Gold
Dow in gold rose up to touch the top gator Jaw this week, but today fell back to its 20 DMA. Ended the week at G$312.97 gold dollars (15.14 troy oz).

Dow in Silver
Dow in Silver also turned down today, again below its 50 and 20 day moving averages. Closed at S$1,393.57 silver dollars (1,077.84 oz). Both indices are rolling over in a broadening top, megaphone, or gator jaws, but the Dow in Silver has fallen further.

Y'all probably laugh at me for clinging to those gator jaws, but I'm telling y'all, "The jaws of the gator grind slow, but they grind exceeding fine."

West Texas Intermediate Crude walked through its uptrend line on 7 May but against the normal expectation of a plunge, has traded sideways around its 20 DMA. Today it closed above that 20 DMA again. Big question here is whether the double bottom earlier this year followed by a rally marked the long decline's end, or only a pause in the plunge. Another inflation market, Copper, has long since negated its earlier late-April early May rally, and may have broken the uptrend line from January today. Oil and copper tumbling don't do silver and gold prices any good.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, May 28, 2015

Today the Gold Price Rose $2.50 to $1,188.10

28-May-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,188.102.200.19%
Silver Price, $/oz16.650.010.09%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.3450.0430.06%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0140-0.0000-0.06%
Platinum Price1,116.80-2.70-0.24%
Palladium Price784.80-0.20-0.03%
S&P 5002,120.79-2.69-0.13%
Dow18,126.12-36.87-0.20%
Dow in GOLD $s315.38-1.31-0.41%
Dow in GOLD oz15.26-0.06-0.41%
Dow in SILVER oz1,088.46-3.85-0.35%
US Dollar Index97.15-0.32-0.33%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
SILVER and GOLD PRICES formed even sided triangles from November forward, then broke out of those triangles upward in Mid May. Both have since traded back to the top triangle boundary, typical "final kiss good-bye after a breakout."

I think the price of gold will hold here. At least, until it breaks through $1,175 and silver $16.55. I have to stick with that.

If I am wrong, they will trade down at least to the bottom triangle boundary ($1,150 and $16.00). Who knows? If they break that line they could fall further.

Today the GOLD PRICE rose $2.50 to $1,188.10 and the SILVER PRICE rose 2.5 cents to $16.653.

These piddling moves announce nothing, except the silver and gold price refusal to drop. (As I said above, using so lavishly many words).

Today settled nothing, explained nothing.

I laid before y'all yesterday my bumfuzzlement over the state of the US dollar index and silver and gold prices. I hear analysts who I'm sure have forgotten more than I'll ever know calling for lower metals' prices, but here's what I see:

Stocks continue to roll over. Dow today lost 36.87 (0.2%) to 18,126.12 while the S&P shaved off 2.69 (0.13%) to 2,120.79. Stocks are acting more and more manic depressive, high one day, low the next, but without any net gain. Keep your eye on that net gain. When a car keeps spinning its wheels in the mud, eventually it mires down and sinks.

The US dollar index rallied 10 months, from last July into this May, and a lot who rode that camel expected it to run forever. Didn't. Dropped dead at 100.27 in May. Of course, that's what investors and even sophisticated ones do, they project whatever trend runs currently out into the future forever, world without end.

Dollar index dropped to 93.15 by Mid-May, forming a falling wedge on the way. Broke out of that upwards on 19 May, then surged straight up (not coincidentally, the fast move characteristic of a bear market rally when shorts get caught), rallied up to the 61.8% retracement level, 97.88, then stopped. Yesterday it fell back 3 basis points, today 32 to 97.15. If this were only a corrective rally in a longer downtrend, that's how it would act. However, if it turns around and surges through 97.88, it will rise through the old high. My guess is that most of this dollar enthusiasm is being fueled by euro DIS-enthusiasm because of Greece. When that evaporates, the dollar will resume falling.

I can't be dogmatic about any of this, because the smoke still fills the air and I need confirmation.

Okay, now y'all know everything I know. All these markets are waiting for something to break, something to erupt, to bust through their uneasy equilibrium.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, May 27, 2015

The Price of Gold Dropped $1.30 Closing at $1,185.90

27-May-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,185.90-1.30-0.11%
Silver Price, $/oz16.64-0.10-0.57%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.2590.3310.47%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0140-0.0001-0.46%
Platinum Price1,118.50-4.90-0.44%
Palladium Price785.004.600.59%
S&P 5002,123.4819.480.93%
Dow18,162.99121.450.67%
Dow in GOLD $s316.682.460.78%
Dow in GOLD oz15.320.120.78%
Dow in SILVER oz1,091.6613.521.25%
US Dollar Index97.38-0.03-0.03%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
First, put yesterday into the rotten perspective it deserves. It was options expiry on Comex, the day when hundreds of GOLD PRICE and silver price options expire. With the GOLD PRICE above $1,200 and $1,190 and SILVER above $17.00, a bunch of call options were about to expire in the money and their writers were going to have to pony up -- but NOT if the spot price dropped.

So, it dropped, or was pushed. Happens nearly every month on options expiry day. Cheap chiseling. Markets are not benevolent.

The GOLD PRICE today shaved off $1.30 to close Comex at $1,185.90. Silver gave back 9.6 cents to $16.638.

With pessimists breathing down my neck like the arctic wind, I am trying to look at these charts realistically, but durn! Both silver and gold price broke out of even-sided triangles, traded up through their 200 DMAs, made highs higher than previous highs, and then dropped back to the upper boundary of the triangle. Friends, that ain't deadly. Sure, if they break through that boundary they'd look puking sick, but not till then.

I don't fancy the GOLD/SILVER RATIO climbing as it is, but that's to be expected in a correction. More than that, the ratio punched through the 200 DMA yesterday, but closed way below it, and doesn't even stand above its 20 DMA today.

Gold/US Dollar Index
Then I went and looked at the Gold/US Dollar Index spread. It fell with a breakaway gap on 19 May but yesterday left what looks like an exhaustion bap, meaning the move should have nearly spent itself. Look for yourself on the right:

Silver/US Dollar Index
Silver/US Dollar Index Spread looks even stronger, However, it has reached its 50 DMA and must turn around here. Chart on left.

Mind also we are moving into the time (June-July) when silver and gold prices show a seasonal low, usually with a strong upmove out of July & into August and later. That does not bode well for metals.

I have to say it: even putting the worst gloss possible, I don't see any massive drop from here, so I'm going to pull on a turtleneck to keep off the arctic breeze and stay with it: buy silver at $16.55 or gold at $1,175. I caution y'all, if I'm wrong the gold price can fall to $1,155 7 silver to $16.00, maybe lower.

Yesterday on fears of Greece defaulting and an anti-austerity government being elected in Spain over the weekend and who knows what else, the US dollar index jumped up 129 basis points (1.35%) to 97.4, a colossal move. That took the dollar intraday to a perfect 61.8% retracement of its April - May fall, and through resistance at 96.50. Also rose past the 50 DMA, a prime target for corrections.

Today the US Dollar index fell back 3 basis points to 97.38. Now the big question becomes, Is the dollar's big rise over or will it keep on rising past the April high at 100.27. And the answer is . . . I haven't a clue. Next day or so will tell as the dollar index will either stall at this level or blow on past it. Clearly, a strongly rising dollar won't help silver & gold prices.

Euro
Now was the dollar's surge helpful to the euro, shabby, pretentious fiat currency of the continent. Ont the chart on the right Y'all can see a breakaway gap down between $1.1130 and $1.1120, and another yesterday between $1.1000 and $1.0950. That second looks like an exhaustion gap, & if it is 'twill mark the extent of the move. However, it left the euro below its 50 day moving average and 20 DMA, which leaves momentum down. Of course, that needs to be confirmed.

Yesterday's drop hurt the yen's feelings the most. It dropped clean through the bottom of the 6 month trading channel (82.25) with a giant gap, so it has further to go. Closed today at 80.84, down 0.48%. Stinker.

10 year bond yield closed below it s200 DMA for the second time today. 30 year bond yield is hovering above its 200 DMA. Both appear to have pointed their noses earthward. The inflation markets copper & WTIC are disagreeing. WTIC walked through its uptrend line, even in the last two days closed below its 20 DMA, but hasn't fallen sharply. Today lost 1.44% to $57.51/barrel. Copper, on the other hand, sank through its 200 DMA 6 days ago and has made a stout business of falling ever since. Lost 0.31% today to end at $2.77.

Dow gained back 121.45 of the 190.48 it lost yesterday to close at 18,162.99. S&P500 won back 19.28 of the 21.80 it lost Tuesday and ended at 2,123.48.

Yesterday both the Dow & S&P500 fell out of rising wedges building for nearly 2 months. That took them below their 20 DMAs then today whipsawed them back above, but it still looks like a breakdown.

Remember that Dow Theory requires that the Transports confirm the Industrials. Dow transports broke yesterday below its trading range. Utilities are sick. Dow Jones Composite average which adds up all three has traded slightly lower sideways sine end-December. It has already walked through its uptrend line from the 2009 low. These are not positive developments if you wear pointy toed patent leather shoes & work on Wall Street.

Dow in gold again touched the upper gator jaw today, closing at 15.32 oz. Dow in Silver is still halfway between the top gator jaw and its 200 DMA. All this still points to higher silver & gold prices and lower stocks.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, May 26, 2015

The Price of Gold Fell $17.10 Closing at $1,187.20

26-May-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,187.20-17.101.42%
Silver Price, $/oz16.73-0.301.74%
Gold/Silver Ratio70.950.230.32%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.