Friday, May 27, 2016

Gold Price Lost $38.60 or -3.1% this Week


Here's the weekly scorecard:
 20-May-1627-May-16Change% Change
Silver, cents/oz.1,651.901,624.60-27.30-1.7
Gold, dollars/oz.1,252.401,213.80-38.60-3.1
Gold/silver ratio75.81674.714-1.102-1.5
Silver/gold ratio0.01320.01340.00021.5
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)288.87304.3915.535.4
Dow in gold ounces13.9714.730.755.4
Dow in Silver ounces1,059.441,100.1640.723.8
Dow Industrials17,500.9417,873.22372.282.1
S&P5002,052.322,099.0646.742.3
US dollar index95.2995.750.460.5
Platinum1,022.50980.50-42.00-4.1
Palladium558.70539.60-19.10-3.4

27-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold, $/oz1,213.80-6.60-0.5
Silver, $/oz16.25-0.92-5.4
Gold/Silver Ratio74.714-0.364-0.5
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0134-0.0008-5.4
Platinum980.50-14.80-1.5
Palladium539.60-3.80-0.7
S&P 5002,099.068.960.4
Dow17,873.2244.930.3
Dow in GOLD $s304.392.440.8
Dow in GOLD oz14.720.120.8
Dow in SILVER oz1,100.1661.585.9
US Dollar Index95.750.590.6

Tough week for metals, good week for stocks &, at the end, for the US dollar index. The study of history has left me philosophical, not to be bent out of shape when the inevitable doesn't happen for a week or two. Now let it stretch out three weeks, & I get irritable. 

'Twas Friday, and had been a nasty week for the Nice Government Men. Try as they might, they just couldn't inject any spine into the US dollar. "Hey! Janet! It's Friday, time for a surprise party. You got a speech scheduled? Yeah, Haaavaad? Go over there an talk that dollar up. Sure, sure, blow hot and cold out of both sides of your mouth like you always do, but blow harder on that interest rate rise. The suckers are beginning to catch on. Say something to kick that dollar up a notch." 

This, we imagine, the Fly on the Wall at the Fed heard today, for LO! Janet the Bobbling Banker spoke at Harvard & said, "It's appropriate . . For the Fed to gradually & cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate." Listen, I am not low & mean & ungentlemanly enough to point out to a grown woman, an academic at that, that she not only split but double split an infinitive with two out of place adverbs, or used the word "over" twice too close to each other, or generally foamed at her bureaucratic mouth with a sentence that sayeth nothing much while threatening something. In other words, it was the Nice Government Men at their best, spooking markets. 

(That image might be a really salable idea, a "Bobble-Janet". Y'all know those dancing hula girls people carry on their dashboards, or bobble=head German dogs in the back window? We could make Bobble Janets and Bobble Baracks and Bobble Hillarys.) 

Bobbling Janet's late in the day speech took gold as low at $1,206.10 and pushed the dollar index up to a new high for the move. Wall Street has apparently changed its mind, deciding higher interest rates are somehow good for stocks. Meanwhile at the G7 meeting in Tokyo, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe warned that the world may be on the brink of a global financial crisis on the scale of Lehman Brothers. Yet Abe failed to get his counterparts to warn about the risk in their wrap up communiqué. They did, however, find time to slap their gums about how horrible Brexit would be, right up there with war, terrorism, and refugees. 

For the first time in six weeks, stocks ended the week higher. After yesterday's moderate decline, the Dow added 44.93 (0.25%) to 17,873.22. S&P500 rose further, 8.96 (0.43%) to 2,099.06. 

It's May, the season for stocks to shut down for the summer. Will they buck that powerful pattern & keep rising past last years high? Or bust and take the hopes and tears of millions with them? I haven't got a clue, but I never bet on breaking patterns. It happens, but not often. 

Thanks to Jaundiced Janet the US dollar index finished 59 basis points (0.62%) higher at 95.75. Did y'all see if Janet broke a sweat pushing that US dollar index through 95.50 resistance? 

Today's theatrics answered nothing for me. The dollar is unpacking a lethargic, unconvincing rally. Above stands the 200 DMA at 96.63, a likely place to turn down. One sign of the market's skepticism about Janet's rates is the 10 year yield today, which rose only 

Why does it matter? Only to how fast or slow silver & gold will rise. If the dollar can pierce that 200 dma and climb to 100, it might go higher. That would put concrete galoshes on silver & gold. But so far that's only a possible and not terribly likely outcome. 

Janet slapped the euro and yen winded today. Euro ended down 0.71% at $1.1113 while the yen dropped 0.49% to 90.66. 

Last few days gold is getting the hand of this dropping thing. Dropped $6.60 (0.5%) today to $1,213.80 on Comex. When Janet spoke long after Comex had closed, it dropped to $1,206.10, but in the aftermarket clawed its way back to $1,209.50. 

Hmmm. $1,206.10. My first target for this correction. Chart's here, http://schrts.co/Edby9s 
Look for gold's struggle to continue next week, but a bottom should come soon. I began buying today near $1,206. 

Comex silver dropped 9.2¢ (0.6%) to 1624.6¢. In the aftermarket it saw no panic, but backed off to 1619¢. Behold, the chart, http://schrts.co/IP2UXn 

On silver's chart you see it nearing that 1600¢ level I have been expecting. However, it could also drop as low as 1520¢, the 200 DMA. That latter price is a nest of potential support: the 200 DMA, the uptrending range line from March, and the downtrend line from April 2011. Any of these points would satisfy a correction. But until I see some fear and a lot faster fall in silver, I keep on expecting a shallow rather than a deeper correction, in other words, something around 1550 - 1600¢. 

Yes, I am anticipating, but I am also following my own advice. I began buying today. I would certainly buy silver around 1600¢. 

Monday is Memorial Day holiday in the United States when the country honors its fallen soldiers and veterans. Oddly enough, this began in the South, in May 1865 when the ladies in Columbus (some say Georgia, some Mississippi) went to decorate Southern soldiers' graves. Since they were gracious Southern ladies, they honored both their own dead and Northern dead. They understood that death ends all hostilities. 

In memory of those brave Southerners who fought a Second War for Independence, I will tell y'all the story of the Army of Tennessee's retreat from the Battle of Nashville. General Bedford Forrest was charged with covering the retreat, in bitter December. When he took command, he saw that his shoeless men had bleeding feet, cut by the ice on the puddles. Out of the chaos he commandeered wagons, and put these brave soldiers in them. When they came to a place where they had to stand and fight, they rolled out of the wagons and fought like furies on bleeding feet, then remounted the wagons and rode to the next stand. 

If you come South and notice on every county's courthouse lawn a statue of a Confederate soldier, that's why. In their honor in Greensboro, Georgia stands this monument: "In honor of the brave who fell defending the right of local self-government." 

Deo vindice. 


Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1220.40 Down $3.40 or -0.28%


26-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold, $/oz1,220.40-3.40-0.28%
Silver, $/oz16.340.080.51%
Gold/Silver Ratio74.697-0.591-0.78%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01340.00010.79%
Platinum995.301.100.11%
Palladium543.4013.002.45%
S&P 5002,090.10-0.44-0.02%
Dow17,828.29-23.22-0.13%
Dow in GOLD $s301.990.450.15%
Dow in GOLD oz14.610.020.15%
Dow in SILVER oz1,091.22-7.00-0.64%
US Dollar Index95.16-0.18-0.19%

Anybody can read a sign, but not everybody knows what it says.

Today I am looking at gold, silver, the gold/silver ratio, & the US dollar index & wondering hard what it all says. Y'all know that "setting targets" off a chart is an inexact art. And if I were wholly wise, wholly rational, & wholly in control of myself, I would never buy or sell unless I had perfect proof & confirmation. But I ain't, and don't, so I sometimes I guess & hope it works. 

I might be totally wrong, just misreading one day's little rise, so take all else I say against that background. 

What has me head-scratching? Silver gaining while gold drops. This is a correction, for mercy's sake, and in corrections silver is almost always WEAKER than gold, not stronger. Yet we are seeing days where gold falls, but silver gains a few pennies, or falleth not as much. 

The gold/silver ratio witnesses that. http://schrts.co/kh9gOy 

Coming off that March high at 84.38, the ratio by end-April had fallen to 70.40, down 16.5%. Whew! Silver ran around the track twice while gold puffed & was left behind. Predictably, the ratio corrected upward, but remember that it had broken down out of that long standing channel (green line). Now it has traded up to the channel line, which also just now coincides with the 200 day (roughly one year) moving average, and fallen back. Lost 0.8% today. Hovering above the 20 day moving average. 

Reflect! The peak above 84 signals a seachange in metals. The ratio will continue to FALL generally as silver & gold move up in this next leg of their bull market. For the short term, if the ratio is turning down, silver & gold are about to turn up. 

Ponder the US dollar index. http://schrts.co/VAuFmZ 

Over & over I've observed the same. It has dragged its feet, too embarrassed or too lazy or too puny to rise. It finally rolled over the upper boundary of that downtrending channel that has ruled since February, but like PGT Beauregard refused to take advantage & improve its gains. Today it fell again, down 18 basis points (0.19%) to 95.16, clearly terrified of that 95.50 resistance. Now this ain't the World's End, but it ain't hot work, either. Dollar's rise so far has been weak, & that whispers, if not promises, strength for silver & gold. 

Gold today dropped 3.4% (0.3%) to $1,220.40 on Comex. Silver GAINED 8.3¢ (0.5%) to 1633.8¢. 
Let's go back over this. To correct 38.2% of the December - May rise, gold would have to touch $1,206, silver 1638$ (already hit 1623.8¢). Silver's 50% correction lies at 1587¢. 

Bottom line? I'm not saying the metals' correction has ended, only suspecting they are very close & this correction may prove shallower than I expected. 

After two day's goosing by computerized trading, moonbeams, and Fed pixie dust, stock dropped again today. Dow backed up 23.22 (0.13%) to 17,828.29. S&P500 shaved off 0.44 90.02%) to 2,090.10. I ain't deef. I hear all the folks rooting for stocks to excel their highs made about this time last year. I reckon they long in vain. 

Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver point that way, too. Here's the DiG, http://schrts.co/bPs4Rg and here the DiS, http://schrts.co/ohwLZP 

Dow in Gold shows gold's weakness relative to silver (you'll see that at once when you look at the DiS). DiG actually re-crossed above the uptrend from the 2011 Low & pierced the downtrend line from December. It remains, however, below the 200 DMA. 

Dow in silver, on the other hand, as the recently stronger metal, remains far below its after-December downtrend. Yep, it corrected up through the 20 & 50 DMA, but also hooked down today. Too early to call them "Turned down", but both are showing a mind to do just that. 

Most hearty thanks to you Brits who answered my query about Brexit. Oddly enough, several responses mentioned the bookies' odds, which giv staying a 70% chance. More than half mentioned that they thought younger people were -- I'll put this less politely than y'all did -- suckers for anti-Brexit propaganda. Most of the responses saw that for the UK to remain in the EU would eventually destroy self-government and, as one man put it, "cede any meaningful sovereignty to an unelected foreign socialist bureaucratic regime." Another said that the Big Money and politicians backed staying, while entrepreneurs & producers wanted out. Another said that however the vote goes, you can't put the toothpaste back into the tube: Brexit will come back, for a long time. 

Sounds like y'all would fit right into Tennessee. 


I drove to Chattanooga today to my foot surgeon, who said everything looked fine. My toe looked like one of those Italian sausages wrapped in string and left to dry in the basement, so I was bewildered -- what would "rotten" look like? I can fell the wire (we say "WAR" around here) in my foot bones. Doesn't altogether hurt, just leaves me real cautious & thoughtful about any sudden moves. Two more weeks and he pulls the wire. I sincerely appreciate y'all's prayers on my behalf. Don't stop yet, I'm still way short on patience.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Gold Price Tumbled $5.10 (0.4%) to $1,223.80 and Made a New Low for the Move Today

25-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,223.80-5.10-0.42%
Silver Price, $/oz16.260.020.10%
Gold/Silver Ratio75.288-0.393-0.52%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01330.00010.52%
Platinum994.20-9.50-0.95%
Palladium530.40-7.35-1.37%
S&P 5002,090.5414.480.70%
Dow17,851.51145.460.82%
Dow in GOLD $s301.543.701.24%
Dow in GOLD oz14.590.181.24%
Dow in SILVER oz1,098.227.810.72%
US Dollar Index95.34-0.24-0.25%

Sorry I missed y'all yesterday, but I was finishing my monthly paid subscription newsletter. 
I wonder if some of you U.K. readers would let me know briefly your assessment of the UK's likelihood of voting to leave the European Union? 

Stocks advanced again today after a yet stronger day today. Dow rose 145.46 today, 212.13 yesterday, and ended today at 17,851.51. S&P500 rose from 2,048.04 on Monday to 2,090.54 today. 
What's driving it? Beats me. Markets sometimes feed on themselves, & that is more true in these days of computer driven trading. 

I picked up an interesting fact off MarketWatch today. Last year's high occurred on 19 May, & the stock market has been lower ever since. There's only been one bull market since 1900 that corrected longer than one year. One more week and the 19 May 2015 high to present correction will be longer than that other long correction. Average length of hose corrections was 155 calendar days, the longest 379 days. As of today, this correction has lasted 372 days. 

Those 2015 highs were 18,312.39 on 19 May 2015 and for the S&P500 2,130.82 on 21 May 2015. 
US dollar index continues its sleepy correction. Today it lost 24 basis points (0.25%) to 95.34, dancing over 95.50 support. It climbs a bit, might have one good day, then stalls, stops, falls back. I'm beginning to wonder if it can pierce the 200 DMA at 96.64. 

Probably I alone among Westerners who can read & write do not believe the Fed will raise interest rates. First, I think they are too chicken-livered to do it, because they are afraid it will pull the flush chain on stocks. Second, as gutless academics they have pushed their envelope out where no envelope has ever gone before, so they have no idea what other mayhem an interest rate rise might catalyze. So like true bureaucrats, when scared they freeze. 

Gold price tumbled $5.10 (0.4%) to $1,223.80. Silver added 1.7¢ to 1625.5¢. Both made new lows for the move today. 

Silver crossed below it 50 DMA (1640¢) yesterday, & struck bottom at 1618¢ today. Here's the chart, http://schrts.co/EohjHY 

Likely targets include 1600¢ and 1550¢. Right now silver doth not appear eager to hit that lower target. 

Here's gold, http://schrts.co/K6XbwP 

Yesterday gold fell out of that uptrending range that has carried it since February (It had closed below the 50 DMA on Monday). Today's low came at $1,217.20. A stretch to $1,206 would correct 38.2% of gold's rise from December. Seems reasonable. 

Yesterday was my birthday. I turned 105. Look remarkably well-preserved for my age. 

I nearly choked chuckling at an NPR story not long ago about some Italian village with a large number of folks over 100. The experts went and examined what they eat and drank, etc. Turns out they eat lots of fats, drink wine every day (but not with breakfast), eat lots of rosemary, and smoke, smoke, smoke those cigarettes. The NPR-ites were fit to be tied. Reality refused to be shoehorned into their ideology. 

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Gold Price Closed at $1228.90 Down $22.30 or -1.77%

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

24-May-16 Price Change % Change
Gold Price, $/oz 1228.90 -22.20 -1.77%
Silver Price, $/oz 16.24 -0.17 -1.05%
Gold/Silver Ratio 75.68 -0.56 -0.73%
Silver/Gold Ratio 0.01 0.00 0.74%
Platinum Price 1003.70 -8.60 -0.85%
Palladium Price 537.75 -12.30 -2.24%
S&P 500 2048.04 -4.28 -0.21%
Dow 17492.93 -8.01 -0.05%
Dow in GOLD oz 14.23 0.25 1.76%
Dow in SILVER oz 1077.28 10.80 1.01%
US Dollar Index 95.24 -0.03 -0.03%

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1252.90 Down $1.80 or -0.14%

23-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,252.90-1.80-0.14%
Silver Price, $/oz16.520.040.24%
Gold/Silver Ratio75.846-0.293-0.39%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01320.00010.39%
Platinum1,012.30-10.20-1.00%
Palladium550.05-8.65-1.55%
S&P 5002,052.3212.280.60%
Dow17,500.9465.540.38%
Dow in GOLD $s288.751.490.52%
Dow in GOLD oz13.970.070.52%
Dow in SILVER oz1,059.441.410.13%
US Dollar Index95.24-0.05-0.05%

I reckon I couldn't have picked a better day to play hooky than last Friday, as very little transpired. 
As usual, that scurvy tapeworm, the US dollar index, lies at the knot of the riddle (to mix a couple of disgusting metaphors). Chart's here, http://schrts.co/dIXAR3 

Last Wednesday the Dollar index traded up through its 50 DMA, then Thursday penetrated the downtrend line from February -- and stopped. Jes' balked like a flop eared mule. And has been stuck there ever since, too lily-livered to bust through 95.50 resistance. 

What's the big deal? Just this, markets that break through resistance & downtrend lines tend to show at least some life & enthusiasm, reaching into the new territory. Even with the Fed sending out OLs (Official Liars) to jawbone up the dollar with more empty threats of raising their discount rate in June, dollar index can't advance. Now this may not be permanent, it may be passing, but it sure ain't no way to start a rally. Looks weak & sickly as a runt pig. 

Japanese yen benefited from trade balance news today and rose 0.78% to 91.53. This leaves the yen broken down from a bearish rising wedge, but bouncing off its 50 DMA. Euro lost 0.04% to $1.1218. 
Lift up your eyes to the horizon! Y'all realize that we are watching a currency centrifuge in slow motion, right? The huge overindebtedness is whirling currencies & economies around faster and faster until they are shaken to pieces. Mercy, don't be one of those who can't believe an inevitable outcome because it's not yet before your eyes. The default will come, & with it transglobal agony. Facebook won't save you, nor Amazon. Not even Netflicks. 

Stocks are breaking down through the neckline of a head & shoulders top. http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0 
Like busy fire ants beneath the surface, I suspect the Nice Government Men of the Plunge Protection team and sweating themselves to dehydration trying to keep stocks up. Dow gained -- get out your magnifying glass -- 2.09 (0.01%) to 17,503.03, but other indices lost millimeters. S&P500 shaved off 2.79 (0.14%) to 2,049.53. 

Dow in Gold & Dow in silver are correcting the first little leg down of their unfolding plunge. DiS is here, http://schrts.co/Q6KUW0 Dow in Gold here, http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc 

Gold lost $1.30 today to settle on Comex at $1,251.10. Silver subtracted 10.9¢ to 1641¢. Both have skidded to a halt after last week's break, at least temporarily. 

Gold chart can be found here, http://schrts.co/rXkzy8 

My suspected targets are the bottom of the present uptrending range, which would be a very shallow correction indeed, and the $1,208 - $1,190 area. Below that a Freddie Kruger correction would cut to the 200 DMA ($1,161). The height of that triangle gold formed in May (blue dashed line) projects a decline to $1,200 or $1,190. Volume is rising slightly as it falls. 

Silver's chart is here, http://schrts.co/ztbfs7 

Most likely targets are 1600¢ and the 200 day moving average, now at 1618¢. As for gold, indicators point down for silver but it's taking its time to work lower. I am anxious to see how Commitments of Traders reports have changed when they come out this week. I keep thinking this will be a shallow correction, but the market may slap my jaws. 

Don't mess with Czechs. On 23 May 1618 in Prague began the 30 Years War when Czech protestants tossed three Habsburg governors out a window -- the Defenestration of Prague. It was NOT a first story window, and this was not the first time the Czechs had removed offensive officials by defenestration. They killed seven city council members that way in 1419. 


Now all you squeamish modern folks will wince at the thought of pitching offending officials out the window. However, think about it. Think how it would improve the manners of those defenestrated, and how respectful it would render the rest, the not-yet-defenestrated. Might work better than a recall election, and certainly more permanently.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Friday, May 20, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1252.40 -$1.80 or -0.14%

Friday, May 20, 2016
20-May-16
Price
Change
% Change
Gold Price, $/oz
1252.40
-1.80
-0.14%
16.52
0.04
0.24%
75.82
-0.29
-0.39%
Silver/Gold Ratio
0.01
0.00
0.39%
1022.50
10.00
0.99%
558.70
0.45
0.08%





Franklin Sanders has not published commentary today, if he publishers later today it will be updated here. 

Gold Price Closed at $1254.20 Down -$19.50 or -1.53%

19-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold, $/oz1,254.20-19.50-1.53%
Silver, $/oz16.48-0.64-3.74%
Gold/Silver Ratio76.1091.7112.30%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0131-0.0003-2.25%
Platinum1,012.50-11.70-1.14%
Palladium558.25-5.00-0.89%
S&P 5002,034.86-12.77-0.62%
Dow17,411.37-115.25-0.66%
Dow in GOLD $s286.982.520.89%
Dow in GOLD oz13.880.120.89%
Dow in SILVER oz1,056.5832.833.21%
US Dollar Index95.290.100.11%

It's only 1:45 central time, but I have ot leave the office for a couple of days rest. First, an announcement, and thank you for your prayers yesterday. At about 5:30 p.m. yesterday was born Arthur Myles Sanders, first child of Zachariah and Victoria Sanders, safe and sound. For Susan and me, Arthur is the fifteenth grandchild and fourteenth grandson. He's an absolutely beautiful baby, and mighty pink. Thank God. 

The correction I've been expecting in silver & gold came to roost yesterday. The FOMC's announcement, with its garlic breath hint of raising interest rates, sent the dollar up & stocks, gold, silver, & commodities down. Before y'all panic, remember that IN GENERAL the dollar is on one end of a seesaw and metals and commodities on the other end. Dollar up, commodities down, and vice versa. Thus this should have surprised no one. 

By the way, note that the Fed will NOT be raising interest rates anytime soon. They tried that in December and crashed durn near every stock market in this sublunary globe. A mere whiff of lower rates Wednesday sent stocks tumbling again, and as I write this the Dow is down 113.1 (0.65%) and the S&P500 down 11.72 (0.57%). 

And oil and the other inflation markets were all set up for a fall in any event. The plunge awaited only a catalyst, and a higher dollar kindly & generously supplied that. 

Our only interest in all this, other than as spectators at the destruction of the world's economy to benefit banks, central banks, and globalists, is how far silver & gold might fall, and how great an opportunity to buy that will bring us. 

Lo, I can only guess, but am willing. Here's a dolled-up gold chart, http://schrts.co/uqgeGc 
Since mid-February gold has traded in an uptrending range. Bottom boundary thereof today lies about $1,240, not far below the often-supportive 50 DMA (1,251.86). A shallow correction would stop there. 
A more serious correction would sink to support between $1,190 and $1,208. A bruising & bloodying correction would reach the 200 day moving average at $1,158.50. 

My guess is that the fall will be enough to sift out the thick crowd of speculators, but not enough by far to wound gold seriously -- say, $1,190 to $1,208. Gold should reach this low fairly fast (assuming it breaks $1,240 - $1,245), maybe next week. 

Now look at silver, http://schrts.co/t9IUae 

The height of that triangle implies silver will fall at least to 1600¢. However, given silver's greater volatility, it could fall all the way to the 200 DMA at 1515. I expect something more like 1575 will catch it. 
Y'all must remember to buy when there's blood in the streets. You'll find your heart in your throat, but ignore it. 


Please remember the prices I am showing here today are closes for gold, silver, platinum, & palladium, but not for stocks or the US dollar index. See y'all Monday, God willing.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Gold Price Closed down at $1273.70 down $2.50 or -0.20%

18-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,273.70-2.50-0.20%
Silver Price, $/oz17.12-0.12-0.67%
Gold/Silver Ratio74.3980.3510.47%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0134-0.0001-0.47%
Platinum1,042.00-11.70-1.11%
Palladium579.40-5.00-0.86%
S&P 5002,047.630.430.02%
Dow17,526.62-3.36-0.02%
Dow in GOLD $s284.450.500.18%
Dow in GOLD oz13.760.020.18%
Dow in SILVER oz1,023.756.640.65%
US Dollar Index95.180.640.68%

Don't y'all think the most appalling thing about the yankee government & Federal Reserve is their merciless tiresomenesst? Their tedious predictability? The programmed fear & instability? They need a new choreographer.

So with utter predictability the Fed's Federal Obtuse Moron Committee today HINTED they might just raise rates in June after all -- no promises, mind you, but hints that those who read the Fed's sheep livers can plainly see. I say this was "predictable" because they needed to boost the dollar, which had stalled, and more, they need to keep markets off balance, constantly sawing from one expectation to the other so nobody will know what they plan. Maybe they have some reason for this (I doubt it's valid) but the net outcome is to prevent millions of folks from planning & ordering their lives, and to plant instability & uncertainty like Kudzu. 

It remains "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." 

Let's look at the outcome. First, the Fed & its staff of imposters & poseurs had better not speak too loudly about raising interest rates, lest the stock market hear, fear, and die. The heroic efforts of the Nice Government Men managed to bring the Dow back from a 17,418.21 low where the FOMC announcement blew it, up to nearly unchanged at 17,526.62, 3.36 (0.2%) lower than yesterday. The NGM managed to bring the S&P500 into positive territory at 2,047.63, although a 0.42 rise (0.02%) isn't likely to win a home in any record books. 

Lo! 'Twas no more'n a bounce off the Head & Shoulders neckline for the S&P, & a further drop beneath the neckline for the Dow. No cause for jubilatin' there, Wall Street, so stow away your dancing Guccis. Stock indices will next imitate a large anvil floating in deep water. Higher rates will tie chains on the anvil. 

Of course, it's purely subjective, but I wasn't particularly moved to awe by the Dollar Index' move today. A 64 basis point (0.68%) move to 95.18 broke no records. While it did punch through the hitherto impunchable 50 day moving average, it stopped cold at the upper downtrend boundary stretching back to 1 February. Look, http://schrts.co/0vo2jg The red lines mark the downtrend from February. Within that downtrend the green lines show another, interior trading range. Last four days' action merely carried the dollar index to that upper boundary. No rally can happen without the dollar index penetrating that line. Maybe it will tomorrow, but for now my sneer remains intact. 

Today offered another lesson in why nobody should trade currencies. The FOMC's announcement panicked the euro and yen markets. Euro fell a meaty 0.83% to $1.1210 while the yen tumbled massively, down 1.02% to 90.70. 

And here's a reason it's dangerous to trade US treasuries, too. FOMC mumbles today wounded bond prices and sent yields soaring. 10 year treasury yield rose 6.88% to 1.21%. Who knew? That's why I don't want to play on any government playground, currencies or bonds, cause everything they touch turns to -- mud. 

Oil (WTIC) is pushing against the upper border of a long-lived rising wedge. Closed today at $48.78, but if it doesn't break through $50 soon, it will nosedive, too. 

On Comex gold lost a mere $2.50 (0.2%), closing at $1,273.70. Silver lost 11.5¢ (0.67%) to 1712¢. 
But remember that the Comex closes at 1:30 Eastern while the FOMC bloviates at 2:00 Eastern, so those closes came before the announcement. After the dust settled & the dancing stopped, gold stood at $1,257.20, down $19 (1.5%) from yesterday's Comex close. Silver lost 37.5¢ from yesterday's comes, or 2.2%. 

Behold, the gold chart, http://schrts.co/quY8qs 

Remember that even-sided triangle on the gold chart I mentioned yesterday? Well, today gold broke down out of that. And it punched into the nearby ascending fan line from the January low, if not quite through the 50 DMA ($1,252.16). That suggests that gold will drop further tomorrow. If it doesn't, that refusal would show great strength.

Silver's case differs. Look here, http://schrts.co/t9IUae 
This end of day chart shows today's silver low at 1692, but it hit 1686. That is the very bottom of the falling right triangle, and the limit of support. Belwo nothing will catch silver before 1631¢ (50 DMA). Falling right triangles usually but not always resolve by breaking downward. To resist breaking, silver must stay above 1685¢. 


My mind's not really here today because my youngest son (of five), Zachariah, is at the hospital with his wife Victoria laboring with their first baby. She has been travailing since yesterday morning, and shortly must have a C-section if the baby won't come. She is indescribably brave & has given every effort to prevent this. Please pray for Victoria and her baby in labor, and for Zachariah.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1276.20 up $2.80 or 0.22%

17-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold, $/oz1,276.202.800.22%
Silver, $/oz17.240.090.54%
Gold/Silver Ratio74.047-0.238-0.32%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01350.00000.32%
Platinum1,053.700.600.06%
Palladium584.40-6.40-1.08%
S&P 5002,047.21-19.45-0.94%
Dow17,529.98-180.73-1.02%
Dow in GOLD $s283.95-3.56-1.24%
Dow in GOLD oz13.74-0.17-1.24%
Dow in SILVER oz1,017.12-16.06-1.55%
US Dollar Index94.49-0.07-0.07%

When roosters quack & ducks crow, you wonder what's going wrong. When markets don't act right, you wonder what you're not seeing. Dollar index tried one again today to clear its 50 DMA (94.76) and failed second day running. Lost 7 basis points (0.07%) to 94.49. 

Not fatal, but like a rooster quacking, it makes you ask, "Why?" And moreso because it comes atop a slothful, lethargic rise off the early May low. So far nothing at all about that rally looks like anything more than a routine upward correction in a ruling downtrend. But what do I know? I'm no more'n a one-footed nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee. Right now if I got into a kicking contest, I'd have to borrow somebody else's foot. 

Other stinking, scrofulous, scurvy, scabby fiat currencies went nowhere today. How they ALL fell and the dollar index fell, too, I am not quite mathematically certain. I reckon they're falling out of this world backwards! 

It's tough enough being the only practicing non-communist in the USA, but worse would be owning stocks. Oh, yea, they were a-jubilatin' & a-drinkin' them martinis on Wall Street yesterday when the Dow rose 1%, so today I reckon they're drinking vinegar, ipecac, & milk-of-magnesia because it dropped 1.02%. Yes, lost 180.73 to close at 17,529.98. S&P500 did not disappoint, either, dropping 19.45 (0.94%) to 2,047.21. 

Today the Dow in fact closed below the neckline of the Head & Shoulders top it has been drawing, & it goes without saying below its 20 & 50 DMAs. http://bit.ly/1YA7s1u That head & shoulders measures to a target of about 17,000, and that right soon. 

Listen, this is NOT entertainment and I am deadly serious. Mark my words: get out of stocks. Get out. Outlook for next 5-8 years is to lose 50% or more from the 18,312.39 high from last May. In case you're slow with a calculator, that means it will drop to 9,156.20 OR LOWER. Stocks will lose 85% of their present value against silver & gold. 

If I did nothing more than look at the gold/silver ratio, I would conclude that this metals rally probably has further to run. Rallies take the ratio DOWN, & in spite of correcting for two weeks and more, the rally has not managed to break through the 200 day moving average above or the lower range boundary it broke getting here. Ratio appears set to move further down. 

Silver rose 9.3¢ to 1723.5¢ and gold added a measly $2.80 to $1,276.20. 

Both are rattling back & forth, trapped like a tiger and trying to break out. Look first at the gold chart for something new, http://schrts.co/AqN5pJ 

Blue-dotted line shows an even sided triangle, and gold has traded out into the tight nose cone. Above $1,287.50 gold burst out upside. Below $1,270 gold crashes to the earth. An even-sided triangle says nothing about which way it will break, only that it will break soon. 

Now look at silver, http://schrts.co/t9IUae 

Silver has outlined a falling right triangle. As a general rule, these triangles are supposed to break downward, but I have often seen them serve as a consolidation and break out upwards. Odds favor a downside breakout, and momentum has slowed and turned down. Yet for all that I can't shake a reluctance, a trembling in my tongue, to say silver & gold will fall. 

I'll be delivered shortly, at least. These triangles are swiftly coming to their point. 


Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.