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Wednesday, January 28, 2015

The Gold Price Lost $5.80 Closing at $1,285.90

28-Jan-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,285.90-5.80-0.45%
Silver Price, $/oz18.070.000.00%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.1700.3210.45%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0141-0.0001-0.45%
Platinum Price1,257.60-8.70-0.69%
Palladium Price797.6015.551.99%
S&P 5002,004.94-24.60-1.21%
Dow17,223.87-163.34-0.94%
Dow in GOLD $s276.89-3.89-1.39%
Dow in GOLD oz13.39-0.19-1.39%
Dow in SILVER oz953.28-9.04-0.94%
US Dollar Index94.760.500.53%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Oddly, silver closed unchanged at $18.068. While the GOLD PRICE lost 5.80 to $1,285.90.

The GOLD PRICE simply continued the decline begun yesterday, which in fact began with the top on the 22nd. Day before yesterday was probably not the bottom of the correction, but I don't expect it to go much further anyway, maybe as low as $1,255 - $1,260 support, maybe no lower than $1,270.00. Why do I think that? Because gold is in a power-move up to $1,350, and corrections in the middle of a power move usually are shallow. Heaven knows, I can be wrong, since I am no more than a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee.

The SILVER PRICE closed unchanged. Flatlined most of the day in a range from $18.17 to $17.94. Little movement, little enthusiasm. Yesterday it fell as low as $17.41, which was near the neckline and near the 20 dma ($17.09). Might fall clean to that 20 DMA. Don't want to see it fall below the neckline.

Really I'm worrying about unprofitable nickels and dimes. Not enough distance here to wait for. Silver bought at $18.00 and gold bought at $1,285 will look dirt cheap a year from now.

Another mouse burp FOMC announcement. More quasi-profound interpretation from more folks who never heard that it's better to keep your mouth shut and be assumed a fool than to open your mouth & remove all doubt.

Fed's non-action helped stocks not at all. Dow dropped 163.34 (0.94%) to 17,223.87. The S&P500, which has been marginally outperforming the Dow, lost more today, 24.61 or 1.21% to 2,004.94.

Getting technical, both the Dow & the S&P500 had built since December even-sided triangles. Today, both punched through the bottoms thereof. Other indicators I watch have turned negative, and volume rose briskly today, confirming the downwardness should abide.

Dow in gold has progressed & consistently confirmed its downside breakdown from the Gator Jaws pattern. Today the DiG lost 0.65% to close at G$276.38 gold dollars (13.37 troy ounces). This takes it below both the 200 day moving average (G$281.55 or 13.62 oz.) and the uptrend line from August 2013. No whisper of a turnaround.

Dow in Silver has not unfolded as much as the Dow in Gold, but sank another 1.28% today to $1,228.84 (950.43 oz). It rests right on the top channel line it threw over in September when silver was tanking. 200 DMA awaiteth at at $1,208.95 (935.05 oz).

Day after day piles up confirmation that the trend of stocks against silver & gold has turned down, and the price trend for silver & gold up.

US dollar index rose 50 basis points today (0.54%)at 94.76, but after falling 98 basis points yesterday. It has been left behind a toppy tower on the chart. Dollar may have seen it's highs. Too early to say., but a close below 94 would be a hint.

Just to keep in the back of y'all's minds, Euro's last low posted on 23 January its intraday low for the move at $1.11.66 & closed at $1.1266. Ended today down 81% from yesterday at $1.1287.

Yen keeps stumbling & bumbling in an uptrend, & hath formed an even- sided triangle. Above the 20 & 50 DMA's, presently intertwined. Set to climb.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil lost 3.06% to $44.38/bbl. Intraday low at $44.08 made a double bottom today with 13 January's $44.20. Not exciting but may be working on some kind of bottom.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, January 27, 2015

The Gold Price Rose $12.30 Closing at $1,291.70

27-Jan-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,291.7012.300.96%
Silver Price, $/oz18.070.100.56%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.590.100.14%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, January 26, 2015

Comex Gold Price Closed $13.30 Lower at $1,279.40

26-Jan-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,279.40-13.30-1.03%
Silver Price, $/oz17.97-0.32-1.73%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.2080.5070.72%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0140-0.0001-0.71%
Platinum Price1,254.70-13.30-1.05%
Palladium Price783.157.751.00%
S&P 5002,057.095.270.26%
Dow17,678.706.100.03%
Dow in GOLD $s285.643.041.07%
Dow in GOLD oz13.820.151.07%
Dow in SILVER oz983.9517.391.80%
US Dollar Index95.240.000.00%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Damage to the GOLD PRICE hit mostly before the US opened, around 3:30 a.m. eastern time. by 8:30 a.m. gold had fallen from $1,292 to $1,276.30. Tried to recover, but could only reach $1,287 about 10:30, then fell & stumbled back to $1,276.30. Comex GOLD PRICE closed $13.30 lower at $1,279.40.

Whoa! Why those long faces? I believe I warned y'all some little correction was coming, so gold could step back and take another run at $1,300 resistance. This correction will probably amount to no more than a minnow-move, maybe falling as low as $1,255.60 support, or maybe to the 200 DMA just pennies below. May have to pass a week doing this.

No surprise, same thugs hit the SILVER PRICE over the head at 3:30 a.m., knocking it from $18.22 down to $17.87 by 8:30 a.m. Silver managed no more than a rise to $18.15, then fell straight down to $17.90 about 11:45. Rest of the day was listless, and closed Comex down 31.7 cents at $17.967.

Tomorrow silver hits the short term uptrend line about $17.60. Below that $17.50 offers support. 20 DMA awaits allow at $16.89.

For now all I expect is a shallow correction. Y'all get ready to buy silver & gold soon.

Maybe it was the blizzard in the US Northeast, or maybe lethargy, but markets moved very little today. After the Greeks elected the socialist party committed to re-negotiating some of the bailout terms, nothing happened. Not even a mouse burped. The German stock index Dax rose 1.4%, the French index CAC rose 0.74%, & London's FTSE added 0.29%. Yawn. In the USofA the Dow millimetered up 6.1 (0.03%) to 17,678.70 while the S&P500 half-inched up 5.27 (0.26%) to 2,057.09.

Lower metals today sent the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver up. Dow in gold augmented 1.18% to G$285.68 gold dollars (13.82 troy ounces), above the 200 DMA and slightly above the post-August 2013 uptrend line. Still outside & beneath the Gator Jaws

1.94% rose the Dow in Silver, to S$1,271.05 silver dollars (983.08 oz).

Speaking of dead markets, the US dollar index literally flatlined. Unchanged. Hideously overbought (81.76 on the RSI when 70 is overbought), you have to expect it to correct soon. Euro gained 0.12% to $1.1241, probably on its way to par with the dollar. Yen couched up 0.7% today to drop to 84.39, yet it remains above its 20 & 50 DMAs in its limping, hobbling uptrend.

I won't be publishing a commentary tomorrow because I have to finish up my monthly Moneychanger newsletter for paid subscribers.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, January 23, 2015

Gold Price Has Now Closed Two Weeks Above the Downtrend Line from the October 2012 Top

16-Jan-1523-Jan-15Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,276.901,292.6015.701.2
Silver Price, $/oz.17.73918.2840.5453.1
Gold/Silver Ratio71.98370.696-1.287-1.8
Silver/gold ratio0.01390.01410.00031.8
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)283.50282.63-0.87-0.3
Dow in gold ounces13.7113.67-0.04-0.3
Dow in Silver ounces987.18966.56-20.62-2.1
Dow Industrials17,511.5717,672.60161.030.9
S&P5002,019.422,051.8232.401.6
US dollar index92.9995.242.252.4
Platinum Price1,269.801,268.00-1.80-0.1
Palladium Price754.30775.4021.102.8

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE stumbled $8.10 (0.62%) to $1,392.60 on Comex; silver shaved off 6.2 cents (0.34%) to $18.284.

Gold Silver Ratio
GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell again, to 70.696. Looking at the chart it left a little gap behind between 72 & 72.25. If we see a correction, it ought to rise at least that far to close that gap. Chart on the right:

Gold Price Breakout
On the weekly chart the GOLD PRICE has now closed two weeks above the downtrend line from the October 2012 top, and closed above its 20 & 50 week moving averages. Folks, this is a breakout. Take not my word for it, see with your own eyes,
chart on the left:

Silver Price
Depending on where you draw the line, weekly silver has either broken out or is about to break out. I'll be conservative and draw the line above. Has surpassed its 20 week moving average ($16.84) but rests beneath its 50 week MA ($16.84). Chart on right.

The gold price has hit that downtrend line from the 2012 high and the $1,300 resistance, but could break through this time. That's all right. It makes a little correction here, maybe as far back as the 200 DMA at $1,255.33 but probably not that far. After that it will surge for the target, $1,350. Of course, if it opens next week above $1,300, it doesn't intend to correct.

Gold in Euros
By the way, have a look on the right at Gold in Euros, and I noticed last night that Pat Heller of Liberty's Outlook reported that the gold price was the second best performing currency in 2014, after the dollar.

Silver has reached its 200 DMA and the $18.50 resistance. Whether it corrects here or bulls on through, it's natural it would pause at this line for a breather. Target for this move completed remains $20.60.

The scoreboard don't lie, and what a story it do tell! Silver up 3.1%, gold 1.2% higher, stocks for all the sound & fury up only 0.9% & 1.6%. Big mover was the US dollar index, now in a hyperbolic rise, a move that endeth always in tears & great reversals. White metals slept away the week.

I really only want to talk about metals, but I'm in it now so I'll look at the others.

Stocks gave back today most of yesterday's gains. Dow coughed up 141.38 (0.79%, out of yesterdays 259.7 gain) to 17,672.60 while the S&P500 refunded 11.33 (0.55%) to close at 2,051.82.

If I say to you, "This acts like a market that is struggling, a weakening market," what do I mean? First, these indices couldn't hold on to those big gains, even though they weren't new highs. Second, that left the Dow below the (presently intertwined) 20 & 50 DMAs which yesterday it had overpassed: gave back the milestone. Third, Dow hit the downtrend line from the December high & closed barely above it yesterday; today, it again closed under. S&P did not match those, & closed yesterday further through its downtrend line, but another question arises: Why are they not confirming each other? If the S&P500 could stay up there, why not the Dow. Whoops, every other important index except the Nasdaq twins (up 0.16 & 0.18%), closed down. Well, okay, the Wilshire 5000 was unchanged. Arguing against my liverish outlook are some momentum indicators which might be turning up. Looks like a market struggling to me, but remember stocks are a huge market and roll over slowly.

Dow in Gold
Dow in gold fell a minute 0.06% to G$282.58 gold dollars (13.67 troy ounces). Eyecatching, because it bounced down off the uptrend line from August 2013. Might be readying an upward correction. Remember the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver FALL when metals outperform stocks, and rise when stocks outpace metals. Look at the chart on the right.

Dow in Silver
Dow in silver tripped 0.58% to S$1,248.61 silver dollars (965.72 troy ounces). Both indicators have broken down from a Gator Jaws formation (Broadening Top) which implies that the trend dominating since September 2011, namely, metals losing value against stocks, has changed & now metals will gain against stocks for several years. Chart on the left.

There's an old technical saw that says when a market breaks upward out of its trading channel, you can draw a new top channel line ABOVE at the same width as the old channel, so that the old top channel line becomes the mid-line of the channel. Since the US dollar index, scrofulous parasite upon the earthball's peoples, has burst through its top channel line, we add that new top channel line and find it crosses the scale at 99.5. That's not saying it will reach that level, only to give you warning it might reach for that line.

USD
Just as likely (in my little mind) is that the dollar has been shoved up here by the ECB announcement yesterday, so is not a permanent move. Also, the nice folk at the Fed are certainly dealing with the pressure of the US export industry which is finding itself priced out of the market by the dollar rising against the yen & euro. Sort of thing that gives Nice Government Men intestinal distress & headaches. Chart on the right.

Euro keeps on falling, down another 1.35% to $1.1210. Yen rose 0.55% to 84.88c/Y100.

WTIC gave up another 2% today to $45.49/barrel. Could be turning up.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.