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Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Silver and Gold Prices Closed Higher with the Gold Price Closing at $1,194.30

17-Dec-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,194.300.400.03%
Silver Price, $/oz15.890.181.12%
Gold/Silver Ratio75.16-0.82-1.07%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, December 16, 2014

The Gold Price Closed Down $13.30 or 1.1 Percent at $1,193.90

16-Dec-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,193.90-13.30-1.10%
Silver Price, $/oz15.72-0.81-4.91%
Gold/Silver Ratio75.9722.9284.01%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0132-0.0005-3.85%
Platinum Price1,196.00-18.40-1.52%
Palladium Price784.00-17.75-2.21%
S&P 5001,972.74-16.89-0.85%
Dow17,068.87-111.97-0.65%
Dow in GOLD $s295.541.340.46%
Dow in GOLD oz14.300.060.46%
Dow in SILVER oz1,086.1546.594.48%
US Dollar Index88.11-0.59-0.67%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Yesterday was a wild day to miss. The ruble lost 19% against the dollar, down some 54% this year. Half of the Russian government budget comes from oil revenues, and with oil plunging the ruble looks like rubble. Add to that western economic sanctions against Russia, and the ruble landed in truble.

The Not-So-Invisible hand of the Nice Government men may have been a shadowy presence behind silver and GOLD PRICES in the last two days. Between currency market panic and a crashing stock market, they're liable to get pretty twitchy. In any event, trading in silver and gold was most unusual, just not quite right.

Let me give you both the last days. Here are charts:
Silver Price
Gold Price

Yesterday the GOLD PRICE  fell $14.80 (1.2%) to close $1,207.20 on Comex. However, in the aftermarket it plunged to $1,193. Today the gold price retraced virtually all yesterday's loss on the chart, but closed down $13,30 (1.1%) at $1,193.90 on Comex. All this happened in a range from $1,187.40 to $1,225.

When you look at gold's End of Day chart, you'll see that the ranges for these two days are nearly identical, but the GOLD PRICE closed at the very bottom of the range. Now here's an perplexing question. Wouldn't a fall in the ruble increase some Russian gold buying? Or, is the Russian central bank selling gold reserves to raise dollars or manipulate its exchange rate in the midst of crisis?

During today's trading the gold price remained below $1,200 until about 5:30 a.m. Eastern, then began to inch up. By 8:30 it had pushed to $1,223.85, but by noon it was below where it started, and flattened the rest of the day.

Net of all this is that the gold price fell below its 20 and 50 DMA, but remains in the trading channel established off the 6 November low, so its uptrend remains unwounded.

Yesterday the SILVER PRICE lost 49.2 cents (3%) to close Comex at $16.527. However, it lost another 40 cents in the aftermarket to end the day at $16.115.

Today was worse. Silver tumbled 81.2 cents (4.9%) to $15.715 on Comex.

As good as the chart looked on 1 December, it looks that bad today. If I draw a line from that 1 December low to Fridays trading, I come up with a bearish rising wedge, and a breakdown out of the wedge the last two days, far below the 20 and 50 DMAs. If I draw a line from 1 December's low to today's low, it's a little better, but remains a rising wedge.

Silver's relative weakness has driven the GOLD/SILVER RATIO back to the high, in fact, on the EOD chart to a new intraday high at 77.88 (versus 77.60 at 28 November). However, it didn't close up there, but closed at 76.06.

This ain't right. Either this will turn out very, very bad or it will pass quickly. By very, very bad I mean some sort of panic like 2008, always a possibility in the LFS (Looney Financial System) we suffer under.

Ain't fiat money grand? Russian banks noted that Foreign Exchange demand was three to four times it normal level. That makes it seem Russians fleeing the ruble were responsible for yesterday's weird currency market results: the dollar index rose 0.41%, the euro rose 0.63%, and the yen rose 0.91%! Yen appears to be the greatest beneficiary of ruble flight.

Currencies weren't the only lunatic asylum yesterday, but I'll touch on the others below.

Stocks yesterday avalanched, Dow down 315.51 points (1.79%) and the S&P500 down 33 (1.62%). Today they tumbled again. Dow plunged 111.97 (0.58%) to 17,068.87. S&P fell another 16.89 (0.85%) to 1,972.74. Since the 5 December intraday highs, both indices have fallen 5.1%.

More: both indices have now closed two days below their 50 day moving averages and left their 20 DMAs behind, yea, long, long ago. At the rate they are now falling, both are in a few days' striking distance of their 200 DMAs (Now 16,861.17 and 1,947.44). Gravity is in the driver's seat, and won't be dislodged easily.

I keep on hearing folks repeat the nostrum that "falling oil prices are good for the economy." I invite them, and y'all, to look at a 20 year chart of oil's price charted against the S&P500 and tell me if you still believe that. You can view on the right:

By the way, West Texas Intermediate Crude closed UP 0.94% today at $55.93/barrel, first half of a key reversal.

Dow in gold fell again today, below and away from its 50 DMA. It lost 0.69% to close at G$295.40, headed much lower.

Not so the Dow in Silver. It rose 2.08% to S$1,401.02 silver dollars (1,083.60 oz) bounding back into the megaphone pattern it had fallen out of, and even above its 20 DMA (S$1,393.04 or 1,077.43 oz). This altereth not the downtrend.

US dollar index fell hard today, 0.67%) to 88.11. Nearing the deadly 87.50 line, but not there yet. It slaps my attention across the jaws that the greatest gainer from the flight from the ruble was not the US dollar yesterday, but the yen. Today the yen gained 1.17% to 85.76 while the US dollar index lost 0.67%. Euro also gained 0.6% to $1.2511.

Euro has broken out of its bullish falling wedge and rallied to its 50 DMA, but it's not moving very fast. On the other hand the Yen, while not above its 50 DMA, looks far peppier and has closed above its downtrend line from the October high.

On 16 December 1967 in Memphis, Tennessee I married Susan Leavell Askew, and I have been glad of it ever since. She and I were both three years old.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, December 15, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $14.80 Closing at $1,207.20

15-Apr-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,207.20-14.80-1.21%
Silver Price, $/oz16.53-0.49-2.89%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.041.121.73%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Friday, December 12, 2014

The Gold Price Rose $31.90 or 2.7 Percent this Week Closing at $1,222.00

5-Dec-1412-Dec-14Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,190.101,222.0031.902.7
Silver Price, $/oz.16.19617.0190.8235.1
Gold/Silver Ratio73.48171.802-1.679-2.3
Silver/gold ratio0.01360.01390.00032.3
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)311.94292.33-19.61-6.3
Dow in gold ounces15.0914.14-0.95-6.3
Dow in Silver ounces1,108.841,015.38-93.46-8.4
Dow Industrials17,958.7917,280.83-677.96-3.8
S&P5002,075.372,002.33-73.04-3.5
US dollar index89.3688.33-1.03-1.2
Platinum Price1,219.001,231.0012.001.0
Palladium Price803.20816.5513.351.7

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE lost $3.10 on Comex to close at $1,222. Silver shaved off 4 cents to $17.019.

To last week's higher weekly close, the silver and GOLD PRICE added another this week. Both need a little higher prices to close above their 20 week moving averages.

Both gold and SILVER PRICES flatlined today as most of the last three days. Short term traders closing out positions before the weekend suffice to explain today's losses. Next week both ought to rise -- "ought" means they must do that or evidence that they have lost steam. I expect to see higher prices next week and for the gold price to challenge $1,255. I also expect this stock plunge to snowball.

Last week I made that horrifying simile comparing the stock market to a meth addict. I said then the collapse was not far off. Well, the cops showed up this week. Dow lost 3.8%, S&P500 skidded 3.5%. Lo, the dollar index weakened as well, off 1.2% weakened as well, off 1.2% for the week.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil fell another 2.81% today to $57.49/barrel. Ouch. Bad news for the shale oil industry. Bad news for stocks.

Stocks fell from the open and never recovered. S&P500 lost 315.51 (1.79%) to 17,280.83. S&P500 lost 33 (1.62%) to 2,002.33. Mercy. These are not happy charts. Both skidded to a stop just above their 50 DMA and closed on the low. That tells you it is bad and getting worse. Dow remains below the uptrend line from the 2009 lows. When it reaches 1,975, the S&P500 will be below the same line. All indicators negative and getting negativer.

Jaws of Death or megaphone pattern in the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver has snapped shut like a gator.

Dow in gold chart is on the right:

The broadening top (Jaws of Death) has been confirmed by a sharp breakdown that today took the Dow in Gold way below its 50 DMA (G$296.85 or 14.36 troy oz.). It fell 1.34% to close at G$292.30 gold dollars (14.14 oz). No support stands ready to catch it between here and the 200 DMA (G$274.93 or 13.3 oz). Will keep falling.

Dow in silver kept plunging. Lost 1.57% to S$1,309.89 silver dollars (1,013.12 oz) and stopped at the uptrend line from July of this year. Some support may occur around the last low at S$1,196.81 (925.56 oz). 200 DMA stands at S$1,158.26 (895.84).

Dow in silver chart is on the left:

As long as these indicators continue plunging, they are witnessing that (1) the lows on 1 December were THE lows for the 3-1/2 year correction, and (2) stocks have peaked and turned down.

US dollar index dropped today (down 29 basis points to 88.33) but has not yet broken down although it has walked through the bottom boundary of the rising wedge. Close below 87.50 will break it.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.