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Friday, February 27, 2015

Gold Prices Closed Higher for the Week Ending at $1,212.60

20-Feb-1527-Feb-15Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,204.401,212.608.200.7
Silver Price, $/oz.16.26316.5130.251.5
Gold/Silver Ratio74.05873.433-0.625-0.8
Silver/gold ratio0.01350.01360.00010.9
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)311.36223.88-87.48-28.1
Dow in gold ounces15.0610.83-4.23-28.1
Dow in Silver ounces1,115.44795.29-320.15-28.7
Dow Industrials18,140.4413,132.70-5,007.74-27.6
S&P5002,110.302,104.50-5.80-0.3
US dollar index94.4395.320.890.9
Platinum Price1,172.901,186.7013.801.2
Palladium Price779.20818.4539.255.0

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Today the GOLD PRICE gathered up $3.00 to close at $1,212.60. Silver peeled off 7 cents for a Comex close at $16.513.

Silver Price
The SILVER PRICE five day chart has no direction, but shows the mark to beat: $16.90. This week silver tumbled to a new low for the move, $16.04, and appeared ready to pierce the last support, that from a line drawn across the shoulders of the Head & Shoulders formation. Silver has also traced out a falling wedge. Y'all will see on this chart, that silver moved away from that low and closed the week higher, although it couldn't close the week above its 20 & 50 DMAs. MACD is striving to turn heavenward, but volume has dried up. Overall, I have to call the week a "good save."

The GOLD PRICE five day chart shows a steady but not particularly pretty advance. Is that a forward move, or merely a correction of a downward move?

The week's action was encouraging. The gold price dropped through the uptrend line to a low at $1,190 and looked ready to sink to the earth's molten core. It didn't. Turned around and rose away from the line. However, it hasn't done anything yet to reveal its mind. It must best resistance at $1,220 and $1,240, with $1,230 a nasty swamp in between.

A chilling thought choked me this evening: maybe I am hurting y'all more than I am helping. Maybe poring over charts every day gives you a utopian, perfectionist mindset. In other words, the will o' the wisp of picking a bottom perfectly.

That's a deadly delusion. Sivler & gold prices probably bottomed in November, but even if they didn't the downside risk probably isn't $70 for gold from here, or a dollar for silver.

Today those look like big distances, a year from now they won't. I remember when the gold price finally reached $340. I chewed ten penny nails and sweat bullets over whether to buy there or wait for the "inevitable" correction to $320. Wadn't I a durned ole nat'ral born fool from Tennessee! Why that $340 gold would look pretty well bought today, wouldn't it? Oh, no, I had to wait for perfection, and watch it punch through $340 and fly away.

Anyhow, the Greeks buying sovereigns reminded me of something else. With bank deposits & bonds not paying any interest, and actually costing you money when you figure in inflation, I'd a sight rather have my money in gold where at least there's SOME chance of appreciation, instead of a guaranteed loss in paper money. And what if there was another financial panic or bank closure? Way too late to buy gold then, like waiting till the tavern fight breaks out to shop for a Bowie knife.

Sound like I'm trying to persuade y'all of something? Well, I am. My life's work has been to point people to the fatal perils of fiat money & the safety of metals. Making money on gold and silver as an investment is just cream cheese icing on that cake of safety.

Whoa! Yesterday's commentary contained a whopping typo. The US $20 gold piece does NOT contain 0.9875 troy ounce fine gold, but 0.9675. I'm going to shoot my proofreader. Y'all don't tell anybody about that. I'll be really embarrassed if that gets out.

Here's a passing strange thing: Dow & S&P500 made new all-time highs this week, but closed the week lower. That don't fit. Somebody's talking out of both sides of the mouth. More, after a week's struggle that threatened to break down existing uptrends, silver & gold dug in their heels & got some traction, enough to close the week higher. So did platinum & palladium. Dollar index also rose, in one of the most bogus levitations in history.

Mark O'Byrne of GoldCore reported today that Greece's central bank reported today a record 12.2 billion euro outflow in January. That's a slow bankrun. The Green central bank also has New Drachma notes designed and ready to print, just in case. Greeks are buying physical gold, especially British sovereigns, traditionally their favorite, according to O'Byrne.

Behold & ponder, O ye Docile Dollar Holders! Why would Greeks buy gold? Because if they leave the money in the bank and Greece exits the euro, they don't know WHAT they might get, or what it might be worth. Better gold by far than taking a chance on a euro without Greece or a New Drachma.

Like Germans, Greeks have been through more than one currency devaluation, depreciation, & change-over. Nobody needs to explain it to them. They get it: gold is better than paper. Let him who has ears, hear! Too late to buy gold once the government springs its surprise party.

Here I am, poor fool from Tennessee, trying to parse these stock indices. All fell across the board today. Dow lost 81.72 (0.45%) to 18,132.70; S&P500 coughed up 6.24 (0.3%) to 2,104.5.

I remain in the meditation, "Is this a breakout or a fakeout?" To reach new highs but close the week lower, well, looks a tad sleazy. It's bad taste. S&P500 closed below its uptrend line.

Dow in Gold
Dow in gold has turned DOWN from the upper Gator jaw. Made a high at G$313.38 (15.16 oz) gold dollars (15.16 troy oz) and closed today down another 0.81% at G$308.84 (14.94 tr oz). Not out of the woods yet, but considering the long rise, that's likely the end of it. Need confirmation still. Chart on the right.

Dow in Silver
Dow in silver also wilted when it neared the top Jaw. High was S$1,446.14 silver dollars (1,118.50 tr oz), and today it fell 0.72% to S$1,414.44 (1,093.98 tr oz). Chart on the left.

You can see a 5 day dollar index chart (below right). Soon as you see it, you'll understand what I meant by Bogus. The dollar index chart is trending down, maybe finding a footing, then on Thursday it hockey sticks straight up. After Janet Yellen couldn't get it excited this week, something suddenly goosed it over 200 basis points. I reckon I'm just suspicious, or disgusted with markets so juvenile & fidgety they'll move on a durned old lying government report. Headline today (if it's good news), footnote in two weeks that takes it all back. Hogwash. Folks have the attention span of a gnat, & far too much money to play with, thanks to central banks & their carry trades.
5 Day Dollar Index
Y'all just wait: in a bear market, money returns to its rightful owner.

Euro broke down yesterday, but has not quite matched its last intraday low ($1.1166). Today it did, however, make its lowest close for the move, $1.1196, down 0.03%. Limber up your passports & go to Europe this summer: whole continent's gonna be on sale.

Japanese yen sank 0.2% to 83.59, but it is only moving sideways.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil

West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTIC) did NOT break down today, but rose 1.23% to $49.52/barrel. It's traced out a trading range between $47.80 and $54.15, & it's the least bit tapering to the right.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, February 26, 2015

The Gold Price Rose 0.72 Percent or $8.60 to $1,209.60, Throwing a Leg Over that $1,205 Resistance

26-Feb-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,209.608.600.72%
Silver Price, $/oz16.580.150.93%
Gold/Silver Ratio72.942-0.156-0.21%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01370.00000.21%
Platinum Price1,174.704.800.41%
Palladium Price810.252.200.27%
S&P 5002,110.74-3.12-0.15%
Dow18,214.42-10.15-0.06%
Dow in GOLD $s311.28-2.40-0.77%
Dow in GOLD oz15.06-0.12-0.77%
Dow in SILVER oz1,098.38-10.85-0.98%
US Dollar Index95.351.121.19%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE rose 0.72% or $8.60 to $1,209.60, throwing a leg over that $1,205 resistance. Silver lifted 0.93% or 15.3 cents to $16.583.

Gold Price
Okay, now, I am just reporting what the chart shows, not my bias (that comes later). After skidding to a halt at the post-November uptrend line, the GOLD PRICE gained yesterday then built on that gain today. A whisker, a mere whisker, stands between gold and that neckline, & not much more between it & the downtrend line from the January high -- tomorrow that's at $1,221. Should gold break through that fence, why, it'll run like a starved hog turned loose in a cornfield. (That's my bias.) Chart's on the right.

Silver Price
Why, the SILVER PRICE did the same, only better. Punched into its 20 & 50 DMAs, but strange to relate, closed about where it closed yesterday. Do I see fingerprints on that, Nice Government Men? Y'all know y'all are going to lose in the end, don't you? Silver's gonna run away from y'all & not only will you lose that battle, you'll have to take your pension in depreciating scabby US dollars. (That's bias, too.) Chart's on the left.

Silver rose intraday to hit its downtrend line from the January peak at 18.50. Barrier here is $16.70 - $16.80. If silver can close above $17.00 tomorrow, it will climb back above that neckline where it can run like a scalded dog.

To hold, any rally has to exceed the January highs to continue the rally begun from the November lows, but both silver & gold have a shot at it now.

Add St. Louis Fed Chief James Bullard to the list of Fed apparatchiki capable of goofy statements. He said the strong dollar was having only a marginal impact on US monetary policy & the economy. Ask other countries if they believe that, since they are depreciating their countries faster than a greased rat can run through a baseboard in a Currency War of competitive devaluations. This is a statement so goofy that you don't want to take either side. No country ever prospered by depreciating its currency, but when others depreciate their currencies it certainly will hurt US exports, or maybe Mr. Bullard doesn't know that US exporters have competitors in Europe and Japan?

What ticks me off most is that ALL central banks manipulate their exchange rates, and they manipulate them together. I wouldn't put it past the Fed to let the dollar rise on purpose, in coordination with the Japanese & Europeans, supposedly to warm up their leftover economies. Yes, it sounds nuts, but Our Rulers are nuts. They have been de-industrializing the US, for heaven's sake, by monetary policy since Bretton Woods!

Stocks trod water all day, trying to peek a nose above the unchanged level. Dow sank 10.15 (0.06%) to 18,214.42. S&P500 went underwater 3.12 (0.15%) to bob slightly underwater at 2,110.74. Today's charts look sick & weak, up and down, unable to rise through unchanged. Something's gone out of them.
Remember the picture from yesterday? I'm wondering whether new highs in stock indices world wide are genuine upside breakouts that will lead to bull market extensions, or merely fakeouts. Add to that the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver which are approaching the top jaw of a Gator Jaws (broadening top). Tis the nature of broadening tops to wear you out with back & forth, but the Dow in Silver & Dow in gold have been reaching for the top jaws, which suggests they will reverse soon. If so, that would brand the stock breakouts fakeouts.

Another complication: today silver & gold prices both rose in the teeth of a strong dollar (up 1.2%!). Silver's up 2.4% & gold 1.06% in the last two days. Makes yesterday's musing about a gold & silver rally look a bit more sensible.

Dollar index soared a monstrous 1.2% today, 112 basis points, to 95.35. Catalytic news the media gave was that a "flurry of economic data" was released that sent the dollar up. I don't know Sic 'em from Come here about that, but technically the scrofulous, scabby, unbacked & wholly imaginary US dollar index broke out of a long even-sided triangle, above it's last two highs (95.23) so enough to qualify as an upside breakout.

Oh, and did the euro swoon, like Count Dracula contemplating a wooden stake or the German finance minister facing Yanis Varoufakis across the table! Euro today plunged 1.45% to $1.1199 on its long slide to its intrinsic value, zero. Yen lost 0.46% to 83.67, but remains in its tight range. Euro shot out of a triangle like puncturing an artery. Maybe the European Central Bank ought to hold a garage sale, pump up that euro.

Ten year treasury note yield rose 2.39% to close today at 2.016% (bonds fall when yields rise). Although that places the yield above the 20 & 50 DMAs, the rush out of bonds seems to have ended with a yield peak nearly two weeks ago. For the moment bond prices are not threatened, but worth watching because panic usually shows there first.

West Texas Intermediate Crude fell again today, 4.13% to $48.92/barrel. Looking like it will break down again. Fed-heads are talking about how much falling oil prices will help the economy, but I talked to a friend in an oil boom town where the population had risen from 100,000 to 140,000 in four years. In the last month they lost 17,000 jobs. How will that help the economy?

Note: There's a fairly large piece of land that's come up for sale right near us. People mention to me to keep an eye open for something, but I never know whether they are serious or not. Send me an email at franklin@the-moneychanger with the word "Tennessee" in the subject line & I'll send you details. It's 250 acres.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, February 25, 2015

The Gold Price Rose $4.10 or 0.34 Percent Today to $1,201

25-Feb-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,201.004.100.34%
Silver Price, $/oz16.420.241.50%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.125-0.840-1.14%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01370.00021.15%
Platinum Price1,172.806.200.53%
Palladium Price807.3018.052.29%
S&P 5002,113.861.820.09%
Dow18,224.0515.380.08%
Dow in GOLD $s313.68-0.81-0.26%
Dow in GOLD oz15.17-0.04-0.26%
Dow in SILVER oz1,109.60-15.64-1.39%
US Dollar Index94.22-0.29-0.31%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Silver and GOLD PRICES are confusing me, blowing hot and cold out of both sides of their mouth. Gold rose $4.10 (0.34%) today to $1,201 but silver climbed 24.2 cents (1.5%) to $16.424.

My first bewilderment arises from the GOLD/SILVER RATIO. It made a diamond reversal, and has respected the downtrend line from that reversal. Now today it closes a at new low for the move (73.125), and below the intertwined 20 & 50 DMAs. Normally a falling gold/silver ratio accompanies RISING metals. Why is the ratio calling for higher metals' prices? Anomaly?

Both the Dow in Gold & Dow in Silver are reaching for the top of their Gator Jaws formations. Sure, if stocks rose much higher or if silver & gold plummeted, they could reach that top jaw & shoot right through. However, broadening tops are generally quite reliable & don't behave that way.

After two days puncturing but not closing below the uptrend line from early November, gold spent the whole day above that line. Admittedly, it didn't pull away from that line or close much higher, but it stopped the bleeding. Also possible that gold rallies from here, but can't make it past its 200 day moving average (1,249) or last high ($1,307.80). However it eventually turns out, it appears the next gold move will be up and not down, if gold keeps hanging on by its fingernails tomorrow.

The SILVER PRICE jumped above an internal downtrend line. Not bad. Just above is the 50 DMA at $16.74. Here, too, we have to be careful not to confound a short reaction rally with a longer, genuine rally.

Yesterday I was sour on silver & gold prices, but they dropped to new lows day before yesterday, and fiddled yesterday, but recovered today. Momentum & trend indicators seem to want to turn up, although they haven't yet. I think a little rally is building, lasting or not.

First the investigation, then the cover-up: Zero Hedge reported yesterday that the US "Justice" (their fame begs the quotation marks) Department is investigating ten megabanks for GOLD PRICE rigging. http://bit.ly/1zdjrDz

Janet Yellen spoke to congress yesterday, & generally pushed off into the future's dim mists any raising of interest rates. That didn't work as well for stocks as it usually does, raising the Dow 95 and the S&P500 5.8 Today they went nowhere: Dow climbed up 15.38 (0.08%) to 18,224.05 but the SUP500 backed up 1.82 (0.08%). Whoops! Apple dropped 2.5% today, probably on news they lost $583 million in a lawsuit.
Many stock indices have in recent days broken through resistance points to new highs. That can mean two things: stocks either WILL, or WILL NOT extend their long bull market with another leg. The WILL side says that having broken through resistance of long standing, they must now continue. Right, except that often at the VERY top markets will overthrow their upper resistance in a breakout that fizzles into a fakeout. That's the reason we want to see them pass that resistance by 2 or 3% before they confirm a breakout upside.

The WILL NOT side says, let's see that confirmation, first. Then there will be plenty of time to talk about new legs up.

I don't say a durned thing, 'cause I'm just a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee, & not fit to rub my overalled shoulders with them silk Armanis on Wall Street.

Dollar dropped 29 basis points (0.31%) to 94.22, below the 20 DMA but not enough to break it down out of that triangle. That needs a close below 94 and might come tomorrow. Sorry Euro rose 0.14% to $1.1359. Yen can't move much, rose 0.09% to 84.12. Both of 'em waiting on a dollar plunge.

That tide moving out of US government securities has turned the other way and the yield is falling again. WTIC rose 3.8% to $51.03, which makes its dip through the uptrend line look like a fakeout.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Tuesday, February 24, 2015

The Gold Price Closed Down $3.40 to $1,196.90

24-Feb-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,196.90-3.40-0.28%
Silver Price, $/oz16.18-0.07-0.40%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.960.090.12%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.