If the Gold Price Violates Today's Low it Might Fall to $1,680 on the Other Hand it Could Rise to $1,805

Gold Price Close Today : 1731.00
Change : (1.20) or -0.07%

Silver Price Close Today : 3349.70
Change : 26.20 cents or -0.78%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.676
Change : 0.366 or 0.71%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01935
Change : -0.000138 or -0.71%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1610.70
Change : -11.10 or -0.68%

Palladium Price Close Today : 686.75
Change : -1.75 or -0.25%

S&P 500 : 1,313.01
Change : -3.32 or -0.25%

Dow In GOLD$ : $151.11
Change : $ 0.04 or 0.03%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.310
Change : 0.002 or 0.03%

Dow in SILVER oz : 377.76
Change : 2.73 or 0.73%

Dow Industrial : 12,653.72
Change : -6.74 or -0.05%

US Dollar Index : 79.11
Change : 0.131 or 0.17%

Not surprising the socks off anybody but the unshod, the GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE both backed away from big resistance today. Gold lost $1.20 to end at $1,731.00 on Comex while silver gave back 26.2c to settle at 3349.7c.

For three days the GOLD PRICE has moved sideways across the chart bounded by roughly $1,715 and $1,740. Friday marked the high, so this line is rounding over downward. Today's low came at $1,716.26. If gold violates that low tomorrow, then it might unravel all the way to $1,680. On the other hand, once it breaks through $1,740, next stop will be $1,805. Might as well steel yourselves for it, a correction will come some time, and fairly soon given the strong rise. Won't be the end of the world, or even the end of the larger rally.

SILVER PRICE three day range has carried it from 3300c all the way to 3400c. The silver chart shows (as does the gold chart) what might with equal justification be called a continuation pattern or a topping pattern. All we can do is watch the boundaries of the range -- 3400c to 3300c and see what happens.

Once again today I have been examining the GOLD/SILVER RATIO chart, and again I have to confess that I expect it to make one final push above 57.5. If I'm wrong, y'all can string me up. If you can catch me.

Scariest thing about writing a daily commentary is that buzzard that sits on your shoulder squawking, "What happens when you run out of things to say? Or on the day nothing happens?"

One of the advantages of being a natural born fool is that you never have enough sense to admit that you have nothing to say worth hearing, so that solves the first. But today was one of those days when not much happened. Oh, everybody showed up for work and went through the motions, but nothing much changed.

The US DOLLAR INDEX rallied a mite, up 13.1 basis points (0.17%) to 79.107. This changes nothing, however. Five day chart might have bottomed late Friday, but dollar will have to burst through 79.50 to prove that. 50 day moving average stands above the Dollar Index at 79.67, and other indicators point unanimously down. Not nearly enough enthusiasm to move much higher.

Greek debt talks are foundering -- come to think of it, they've been foundering since they began -- and the euro, having hit 132.34 Friday and its 62 DMA, backed off today to 1.3130, losing 0.68%. This doesn't near about turn the trend down. Look for higher euro still.

Something's going on with the yen, but I don't know what. It's the sorriest of the three big fiat currencies, worst debt, etc., but it's rising. Monday of last week it gapped down horribly in a move that screamed, Government Manipulation. Stayed down one day, traded back up through the 50 DMA, then Friday gapped UP above the 20 DMA and through internal resistance about 130.5c. This points to another trip back to the top of the trading range above 132c.

Against both the euro and the yen gold is breaking out toward the sky. Not quite confirmed yet in the euro, but clearly in an uptrend.

Against the other Loser Fiat Currencies, silver also offers a bright outlook. Silver in Euros has broken out of a down trend and traded up to its 200 DMA, standing above its 20 and 50 DMAs. The 20 has just crossed above the 50. Once silver crosses through 26 euros, it will be bye-bye earth. Silver in yen shows a similar set-up, but not quite as fully unfolded.

STOCKS had another sickly day. Dow only fell about 0.5% to 12,653.72, down 6.75 points, far less than the andSP500 that lost 3.32 points or 0.25%. Other indices lost more than the Dow, too, sending the smell of ripe mackerel into the air. A drop through 12,530 will push the Dow's head underwater. RSI and MACD are ripe to drop.

STOCKS -- they may be YOUR chance to buy a ticket on the Titanic this year.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Correction has Ended, Gold can hit $2,600 this Year

Gold Price Close Today : 1,732.20
Gold Price Close 20-Jan : 1,663.70
Change : 68.50 or 4.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 3374.7
Silver Price Close 20-Jan : 3164.7
Change : 210.00 or 6.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.329
Gold Silver Ratio 20-Jan : 52.571
Change : -1.24 or -2.4%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01948
Silver Gold Ratio 20-Jan : 0.01902
Change : 0.00046 or 2.4%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 151.32
Dow in Gold Dollars 20-Jan : $ 158.05
Change : $ (6.73) or -4.3%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.320
Dow in Gold Ounces 20-Jan : 7.646
Change : -0.33 or -4.3%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 375.74
Dow in Silver Ounces 20-Jan : 401.95
Change : -26.21 or -6.5%

Dow Industrial : 12,680.14
Dow Industrial 20-Jan : 12,720.48
Change : -40.34 or -0.3%

S&P 500 : 1,318.01
S&P 500 20-Jan : 1,315.38
Change : 2.63 or 0.2%

US Dollar Index : 78.883
US Dollar Index 20-Jan : 80.155
Change : -1.272 or -1.6%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,621.80
Platinum Price Close 20-Jan : 1,530.50
Change : 91.30 or 6.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 688.50
Palladium Price Close 20-Jan : 673.85
Change : 14.65 or 2.2%

Today the GOLD PRICE rose $5.50 to $1,732.20 and silver rose 4.5c to 3374.7c.

The SILVER PRICE gained 6.6% this week, gold gained 4.1%. Meanwhile, they also bludgeoned their way through two or three resistance levels. This is about as good a week's performance as I have ever seen.

On Wednesday, thanks to the Bernancubus Fed's announcement they will continue jimmying interest rates down and inflating until 2014, gold shot from $1,670 to $1,705 in a single bound, smashing down $1,680 resistance. Next day it pierced $1,705 AND $1,725.

That carries GOLD PRICE through the downtrend line from September a full three percent and three days, proof enough it is a solid breakout. And for good measure gold also rose above its 150 DMA ($1,686), the rarely broken safety net under gold's bull market.

This week SILVER beat 3260c, then 3300c and 3350c and now stands knocking at the 3400c door, where it meets stout resistance. Most important goal here is for silver to climb above its 300 DMA. During this bull market silver has only rarely broken below this moving average. Whenever it crosses above it again, silver is offering you an extremely low-risk buying point.

Some time or other a correction will come. One target is the 200 DMA at 3575c, about where some lateral resistance also abides. Should silver pierce that mark, nothing stands in its way before 4000c.

RSI on both metals stands at 70, pushing the ceiling for overbought, but overbought can easily get MORE overbought and stay there longer than expected.

Big Picture has come into focus. The SILVER and GOLD PRICE correction has ended, but may correct and bump along sideways for the first quarter or two. Nonetheless, both are headed much, much higher. Gold can hit $2,660 this year, silver might hit 7600c, even 8300c.

Is the bull market over? Merciful heavens, NO! The wild part of the ride is only now beginning.

At the end of the football game, what do y'all do? You look at the scoreboard, right? Because even though the game may be fun at the end all that counts is that scoreboard. This week's board says that stocks are spinning wheels, US dollar is backing down the hill with transmission problems, and silver and gold are blasting ahead down the road.

Most notable this week was NOT the metals huge gains, although that was notable enough, but stocks' fall against the metals. On 29 December the Dow in Gold Dollars hit G$164.94 (7.969 oz). Today it's at G$151.32 (7.320 oz), down almost 9% although stocks have risen 3.2% (Dow) and 4.4% (S&P500).

Since 29 December the Dow in Silver Ounces has plunged from 450.5 oz. to 375.74 oz today, falling 16.6%. Instructive.

That 29 December high took both indices to new highs for the move, and for silver, above the long term downtrend line. The outcome until today shows that the tide in stocks versus metals has turned down again, and stocks have begun to lose another 80% of their present value against stocks.

Dow closed today at 12,680.14, down 54.49 (-0.43%) and the S&P500 at 1,318.01, lower by 0.42 (0.3%). This week has shown stocks unable to sustain the enthusiasm of the year's opening. Unless the Dow exceeds 12,850 and the S&P500 1,360, which I do not expect, their next leg will be down -- very much down. Acceleration begins when the Dow drops through 12,600.

The US Dollar did NOT have a good week. It broke support about 80, then 79.5, and today hit itself in the head with a ball peen hammer by dropping another 51.2 basis points (0.66%) to 78.883. Dollar now is trading below its 50 day moving average (79.64) and may be headed for its 200 DMA (76.49).

The euro has profited from the dollar's slide, gaining 0.93% today alone to reach my minimum target of 1.3200. Closed at 1.3237, will rise further next week.

Yen offers a classic snapshot of government manipulation. Gapped down on Tuesday, traded down to support, then gapped UP today. Closed today at 130.35c/Y100 (Y76.72/US$1), up 0.91%. So, let's see -- yen crashed on Tuesday, falling through its 20 DMA and 50 DMA, but today turned right around and shot back up, closing higher than it began the week? If that ain't Nice Government Men in action, canaries have fangs.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Broke out Above it's Downtrend and Traded Above the 200, 150, 50, and 20 Day Moving Averages

Gold Price Close Today : 1726.70
Change : 26.60 or 1.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 3370.20
Change : 61.0 cents or 1.8%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.234
Change : -0.141 or -0.3%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01952
Change : 0.000053 or 0.3%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1609.00
Change : 31.50 or 2.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 690.45
Change : -2.55 or -0.4%

S&P 500 : 1,318.45
Change : -7.60 or -0.6%

Dow In GOLD$ : $152.47
Change : $ (2.63) or -1.7%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.376
Change : -0.127 or -1.7%

Dow in SILVER oz : 377.88
Change : -7.62 or -2.0%

Dow Industrial : 12,735.31
Change : -21.65 or -0.2%

US Dollar Index : 79.40
Change : -0.177 or -0.2%

Silver and GOLD PRICE added more credibility to their résumé today, pushing higher after upside upside breakouts. GOLD gained $26.60 (1.8%) to $1,726.70 while silver added 61c (1.8%) to close Comex at 3370.2, within easy spitting distance of our 3400c target.

The GOLD PRICE pushed aside the $1,705 resistance like King Kong pushing down New York City streetlights, and sprang clean to next resistance around $1,725.

What more can you ask? Gold has (1) broken out above its downtrend line from September, and (2) traded above the 200, 50, 20, and now 150 day moving averages. Momentum hardly gets more unanimous than that.

Road for gold stretches out to $1,800. Someday will come a correction, not too long looking at the RSI, but not before gold makes more gains.

The SILVER PRICE traded overnight barely below 3300c, at 3297.5c, then climbed like a stubborn Sherpa all day to a 3377.5c high. Comex close at 3370c came very close to the day's high.

Here are the bounds: the SILVER PRICE must not close below 3300c, and must exceed 3400c to keep on rallying. With the world's largest central bank announcing that it will most surely keep on depreciating the dollar, what else would you expect silver to do? If you don't buy the silver breakout at 3400c, you'll never buy anything. It screams too loudly that it intends to move higher.

All that said, remember humility and recall that markets turn on a dime. Closes below 3300c or $1,700 gainsays everything above.

German chancellor Ferkel spoke at the Davos economic forum yesterday, coinciding with the FOMC's actions here. Coincidence? Or timed to manipulate fall of the dollar against the euro? No matter, she said nothing new. Crisis continues to be the elephant in the living room.

An Israeli website reported yesterday that India has agreed to pay for Iranian oil with gold. Not sure whether this can be believed, but if it's true it is a flashing harbinger of change.

Markets followed through today as expected from yesterday: gold and silver up, dollar down, stocks down. Maybe inflation isn't the universal economic panacea after all -- but what do I know? I'm no central banker, I'm just a natural born fool from Tennessee, not rating even 3 MLCs on the Scientific Stupidity Scale.

STOCKS melted when they approached the Kryptonite of last spring's highs. Dow gave up 21.65 (0.17%) to close 12,735.31 while S&P500 lost 7.60 (0.57%) to close 1,318.45. Dow below 12,650 will accelerate the fall.

More instructive is the last few days' behavior of the Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) and the DiSoz. From G$164.94 (7.969 oz) on 29 Dec. the DiG$ has fallen to G$152.47 (7.376 oz) today. From 450.5 oz the DiSoz has plunged to 377.88 oz today. Since the December highs showed upside breakouts on the chart, their retreat and failure now underlines one future: silver and gold will gain much more value against stocks, or, stocks will lose more value against metals. Same thing.

US DOLLAR INDEX today fell 17.7 basis points (0.23%) to 79.402. This further fall below 79.50 merely confirms that the dollar has broken down from its uptrend. Low came at 79.07, and dollar may be forming a rounding bottom there, which would send it higher for a few days. Owch, it's below its 50 DMA (79.59). Lower closes will simply nail more nails into the dollar's coffin.

Euro took a breather today, closing down 0.02% (nothing, basically) to 1.3104. Must remain above 1.3050 or foster suspicions that the ultimate bottom for the euro's long move is not yet behind us.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Shot up to $1,712.85 in One Hour, Next Big Resistance is $1,805

Gold Price Close Today : 1699.80
Change : 35.60 or 2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 3309.20
Change : 116.10 cents or 3.6%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 51.366
Change : -0.753 or -1.4%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01947
Change : 0.000281 or 1.5%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1577.50
Change : 30.60 or 2.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 693.00
Change : 15.20 or 2.2%

S&P 500 : 1,326.06
Change : 11.41 or 0.9%

Dow In GOLD$ : $155.16
Change : $ (2.27) or -1.4%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.506
Change : -0.110 or -1.4%

Dow in SILVER oz : 385.56
Change : -11.42 or -2.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,758.85
Change : 83.10 or 0.7%

US Dollar Index : 79.43
Change : -0.442 or -0.6%

The GOLD PRICE was fiddling around all day, pitty-patting at $1,660, falling as low at $1,650, and then gold's best friend Ben Bernancubus and His Clowns made their announcement, and the GOLD PRICE shot up to $1,712.85 in about one hour. The SILVER PRICE languished indecisively, lolling around at 3153c then climbing back to 3220c when Ben appeared. In about one hour silver had gained 3.6% for the day, shooting to 3340c and backing off to only a 116.1c rise to 3309.2 at Comex close.

Ben has taken SILVER and GOLD nearly to the next level. Now we've reached that $1,705 resistance I have been looking for, and gold surmounted today its 150 DMA ($1,683.03). IF -- if -- gold punches through $1,705, the next big resistance comes in $100 higher at at $1,805.

I emphasize "if" because today's news was as good as it gets for gold. This might have been the final surge of the move off of $1,524 in December, and it could correct from here for a week or two. I'm not a fortune-teller -- tomorrow will tell us whether gold will continue rallying or not.

Above silver the only barrier left is 3400c -- well, 3570c, but 3400c offers stronger resistance. After that, silver has an easy climb 4000c cents where it fell off the cliff in September.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO left a gap down two days ago. Generally, markets trade back up to fill gaps. Be patient, don't let the enthusiasm of a rising market fool you, or the fear of a falling market.

I was minding my own business sitting in front of my computer concentrating when all of a sudden my Stupid Meter went off, alarm blaring and honking, Stupid needle pushed way over into the red. Clearly somebody in the world was pushing the safety envelope for Stupid Radiation. Problem is, if the hole in the ozone layer closes up, then the Stupid Rays cannot escape the earth's atmosphere, and every man, woman, and child on earth -- especially those registered to vote -- loses 8 points off their IQ for every day the Stupid Meter reading exceeds 4.8 Central Bankers (standard scientific measurement for stupidity. One Central Banker, abbreviated "CB" = 10 "ERs" or "Elected Representatives" = 100 SCJs or "Supreme Court Justices." One SCJ = 100 MLCs or "Moe-Larry- and-Curlys." One the other hand, in order of ascending stupidity, Ten CBs = 1 SE or "Secretary of Education," and 10 SEs = 1 TSAA or "Transportation Security Administration Agent.")

My heart had no more settled down from the scare that Stupid Meter alarm had given me than my Hogwash Detector went crazy. I jumped up and ran outside, because an alarm that strong meant a TIDAL WAVE of hogwash must be about to engulf my house and Tennessee. About that time I realized that everything was all right. Last night we had a State of the Union speech last night and today an FOMC meeting announcement and whenever you overload a Stupid Meter and a Hogwash Detector like that, you have to expect a lot of alarms.

Bernancubus and the FOMC announced today that they would keep interest rates low until "at least late 2014" and that the committee "expects to maintain a highly accommodative [read: inflationary] stance for monetary policy." But that's okay because they expect "inflation" to be subdued. To prove beyond all quibble that they have all lost their minds, the FOMC specified a two percent (2%) goal for long term inflation, measured by some price index that makes about as much sense as averaging the price of tire-irons with kumquats and SUVs and calling that an index.

Go look at the five-day charts you will notice that suddenly today the silver and gold charts rise straight into the sky. THAT was when the Federal Open Market Committee made its announcement, and THAT shows you how markets interpreted the Fed's announcement: "more and more inflation."

Of course, the US dollar index took this news of more inflation on the chin, sinking below 79.60 support to 79.426, down 44.2 basis points or 0.57%. That wrecks the rally, but stopped just below the 50 day moving average (79.56). I suppose it is POSSIBLE the dollar might turn and resume rallying, but clearly the Fed is working with the other Nice Government Men and Beneficent Central Bankers to lower the dollar and yen against the euro.

And the scabby euro took a great jump to close at 1.3108, up 0.56% and almost touching its 50DMA at 1.3142. Since it already stands above its 20 DMA (1.2891), piercing the 50 DMA will twist up the frenzy knob on the euro's momentum.

The Japanese yen presents a fine picture of government manipulation. It fell through internal support today and at one point through the trading channel reaching back to August. Closed up in that channel, but Oh, My! Somebody BIG is selling yen. Closed 128.66c/Y100 (Y77.72/US$1).

Stock investors are about to set off my Lunacy Monitor, as they bought today on news that the dollar will be trashed and the Fed will inflate more. Can that possibly aid the ailing economy? In a pig's eye it can. The economy is ailing only because of inflation in the first place (Don't argue with me here. There would have been no speculative real estate bubble and stock bubble and soap bubble unless the Fed had been inflating and making money artificially cheap, exactly as they are doing now.) More inflation will help the US economy as much as another drink will sober up a drunk.

Dow rose 83.1 points (0.66%) to 12,758.85. S&P500 rose 0.87% (11.41) to 1,326.06. This charade, this farce, this "inflate-poke-and-hope" management ought to bring tears to any sane eye.

But, it's an ill wind that blows no good, and the ill winds of Central Bank and Government Stupidity, Keynesianism, and Official Hogwash all blew mightily into the sails of silver and gold today.

Just to show you things haven't changed much, except that 120 years ago men had more courage, on 25 January 1787 the militia of what was called "Shay's Rebellion" was met and dispersed by superior Massachusetts state forces at the Springfield (U.S.) Armory. Shay's Rebellion was an uprising of debt-ridden, taxed-out farmers who had fought a Revolution for liberty only to find that at home they were being made debt slaves.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Gave Back $13.80 Today This is no More That a Correction Within an Uptrend

Gold Price Close Today : 1664.20
Change : (13.80) or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 3193.10
Change : 30.2 cents or -0.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.119
Change : 0.060 or 0.1%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01919
Change : -0.000022 or -0.1%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1546.90
Change : -16.80 or -1.1%

Palladium Price Close Today : 677.80
Change : -8.25 or -1.2%

S&P 500 : 1,314.65
Change : -1.35 or -0.1%

Dow In GOLD$ : $157.45
Change : $ 0.90 or 0.6%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.617
Change : 0.044 or 0.6%

Dow in SILVER oz : 396.97
Change : 2.69 or 0.7%

Dow Industrial : 12,675.75
Change : -33.07 or -0.3%

US Dollar Index : 79.81
Change : 0.023 or 0.0%

The GOLD PRICE bounced off that barrier at $1,680 yesterday and gave back $13.80 today, closing at $1,664.20. The GOLD PRICE can drop back to $1,658 - $1,656 and remain in an uptrend. So far, today's action classifies as no more than a correction within an uptrend.

The SILVER PRICE backed off 30.2c to close Comex at 3193.1c. Silver dipped its toe below 3200c to 3184c, but held there rock solid. And so it must do tomorrow to avoid a painful correction, down to 3080c, a dollar lower.

You always have to take care that you are not "talking your position," looking at a chart and seeing only what you want to see and ignoring the rest. Still, I believe that pattern on silver's chart is a continuation pattern, very tight, and will break out upside.

So (as my friend R. asked me today) why not talk about the GOLD/SILVER RATIO? Because I am still holding out for 57.5 to swap, and believe we will yet see that. Silver and gold have most likely made their bottoms, but first time silver makes a correction, it will suffer much more than gold will, and that (I hope) will give us that push.

Think about something else. I am still smarting by swapping out of SILVER into GOLD too early last year. I don't want to jump too early on the swap back, and I know from previous years that the ratio can post several similar highs before it turns down for good.

Right, that's risky, but for right now I believe it's a risk worth taking.

US dollar today gained a massive, spectacular 2.3 basis points (0.03%) to end at 79.806. It skidded to a stop just above the 50 DMA (79.52).

High today reached 80.184, low skidded to 79.643. Without closing higher than 80.20, the dollar is merely trolling for fools gullible enough to buy it on the way down.

Of course, if the buck hangs around above 79.50 for a few days, I might change my mind.

Scabby euro rose 0.09% today to 1.3036, not much changed from yesterday, but still rallying. Still headed for 1.3200 at least.

Yen, on the other hand, fell off a cliff today. Dropped 0.9% to 128.71c/Y100 (Y77.69/US$1), leaving behind a huge gap and punching through its 20 DMA (129.65) and 50 DMA (129.19). Support there is none before 128c, or the 200 DMA at 127.37c. Looks like the Nice Government Men in Japan woke up today and decided to lower the yen.

Stock indices shrugged off their confusion today and all decided to drop together. Dow lost 33.07 (0.26%) to 12,675.75. S&P500 gave back 1.35 to 0.1%. Charts aren't quite the same.

S&P500 has bumped into overhead resistance from last spring's highs and stopped cold. Dow punched through slightly, reached 12,764, and has traded back to the line for -- a failure and fall back, or a final kiss good-bye? Not clear yet, but stocks don't have much gas left. Dow won't reach 12,870, S&P500 shouldn't reach 1,360.

On 24 January 1848 James W. Marshall discovered a gold nugget at Sutter's Mill in northern California, the discovery that set off the Gold Rush. Discoveries of gold in California, Australia, and later South Africa led to a CHEAPENING of gold against silver, and the price of silver in gold rose steadily from 1848 until 1873, when silver was corruptly demonetized first in the US ("Crime of '73") and then in the new German Reich. Contrary to the propaganda, it was NOT new silver discoveries, like the Comstock Lode, that led to silver's cheapening against gold or its demonetization. That was all politics, and silver was gaining value from 1848 forward, never trading below the $1.2929 statutory value from 1848 to 1873, and rising at some points to $1.35 (4.4% over statutory price). No, ultimately driving silver out of the monetary system was a project of special interests who planned to drive out first, silver, and then gold, and so create their own money out of thin air. So far, they've won, and think what a tragedy it would have been if the banks had lost. Why, how would states have raised the money to fight all those world wars without central banks and fiat money? Gee, they couldn't have, so they would have been forced to make peace. It would have been a historical tragedy, wouldn't it?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Reached my $1,680 Target and Should Now Rally to $1,705

Gold Price Close Today : 1678.00
Change : 14.30 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 3223.30
Change : 58.60 cents or 1.9%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.058
Change : -0.512 or -1.0%

Silver Gold Ratio Today : 0.01921
Change : 0.000187 or 1.0%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1563.70
Change : 33.20 or 2.2%

Palladium Price Close Today : 686.05
Change : 12.20 or 1.8%

S&P 500 : 1,316.00
Change : 0.62 or 0.0%

Dow In GOLD$ : $156.56
Change : $ (1.47) or -0.9%

Dow in GOLD oz : 7.574
Change : -0.071 or -0.9%

Dow in SILVER oz : 394.28
Change : -7.67 or -1.9%

Dow Industrial : 12,708.82
Change : -11.66 or -0.1%

US Dollar Index : 79.70
Change : -0.671 or -0.8%

Today the GOLD PRICE climbed $14.30 to $1,678.00. The SILVER PRICE tagged right along and ran out front with a 58.6c rise to 3223.3c.

GOLD PRICE has now reached my $1,680 target area -- high today hit $1,681.25. Gold's present zeal argues that it will rally to $1,705 at least before pausing.

Worth noting is that gold's crucial 150 day moving average stands at $1,681.19 today. As a footnote, the GOLD PRICE also rose above its 50 DMA (1,669.54).

Remember that during this bull market gold has only rarely traded below that 150 DMA, and never for a very long time. If it climbs over soon, it may not touch that 150 DMA for a long time to come.

The SILVER PRICE has punched through a resistance line within its trading channel, with one clear goal in mind: reach 3400c. Look for it soon.

SILVER's 300 DMA, which has been as important to silver as the 150 DMA has been to gold, stands at 3428c today. About the same place stands resistance from last fall's trading. Silver has the bit in its teeth and is running away, above its 20 and 50 DMAs and raging.

Keep in mind if you are pondering buying silver or gold that you are not buying for a one or even two or five dollar gain, but a TRIPLE or quadruple. Even a five dollar gain here will look very small in hindsight. Longer you wait to buy, more they will cost.

A joke on the streets of Moscow these days: "Everything the Communists told us about communism was a complete and utter lie. Unfortunately, everything the Communists told us about capitalism turned out to be true."

Markets have made their intentions considerably clearer today. Dollar's rolling into the gutter again, stocks are indecisive and faltering, gold and silver are shaking off their worries and marching higher.

Let's start with the US Dollar Index. Dealing with all these fiat currencies for me is like having to listen to a long lecture on tapeworms and other internal parasites. Thus I want to get it behind me as quickly as possible.

What the dollar is losing, the euro is gaining as the frenzied rats, uncertain which ship will sink first, swim from one ship to the other. Here's the answer to their quandary: BOTH are sinking.

Dollar index today lost 67.1 basis points, a meaty 0.86%, to grab a branch at 79.704. Falling through the trap door at 80 sends the dollar much lower, and a fall through 79.50 (probably tomorrow) will only tie anvils to the dollar's feet.

Dollar's rally is over for a while. Broke clean through the uptrend line, closed below the 20 day moving average (80.53), and has only barely avoided breaking the 50 DMA (79.45). None of this promises anything other than lower prices for the dollar. It has fallen off the kerb into the gutter.

Euro meanwhile has a full load on and has posted two gaps up in the last 3 trading days -- breakaway gap, headed for 132+ resistance. Not clear yet how substantial this rally is, or how long it might last. May constitute no more than a rally before one last spike down, but looks good from here. Momentum points skyward as euro has passed its 20 DMA (1.2889) and is drawing a bead on its 50 DMA (1.3163). Euro closed today up 0.77% at 1.3031.

Yen did little today, up 0.08% at 129.93c/Y100 (Y76.96/US$1). Above the 20 DMA (129.62) but looking awfully tame.

STOCKS today looked lost and bewildered, some indices up, some down. Confusion promises nothing good as stocks run out of enthusiasm and steam.

Dow fell 11.66 (0.09%) to 12,708.82. Broader S&P500 rose 0.62 (get out the magnifying glass) or 0.05% to 1,316.00.

Dow acting allergic to 12,750. Last high close came 2 May 2011 at 12,810. That is now doing the same thing to the Dow that Kryptonite does to Superman.

S&P500 is also struggling at analogous downtrend line from 29 April 2011 close at 1,363.60.

Don't expect either index to reach those last high levels. This will bring great pain to many, and I take no pleasure in reporting it. Stocks are in a primary down trend, and have much, much further to fall in the years before that bear market ends.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

The Gold Price Utterly Blasted my Expectations Today, Closing Up 2 Percent for the Week at $1,663.70

Gold Price Close Today : 1,663.70
Gold Price Close 13-Jan : 1,630.60
Change : 33.10 or 2.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 3164.7
Silver Price Close 13-Jan : 2949.3
Change : 215.40 or 7.3%

Gold Silver Ratio Today : 52.571
Gold Silver Ratio 13-Jan : 55.288
Change : -2.72 or -4.9%

Silver Gold Ratio : 0.01902
Silver Gold Ratio 13-Jan : 0.01809
Change : 0.00093 or 5.2%

Dow in Gold Dollars : $ 158.05
Dow in Gold Dollars 13-Jan : $ 157.48
Change : $ 0.57 or 0.4%

Dow in Gold Ounces : 7.646
Dow in Gold Ounces 13-Jan : 7.618
Change : 0.03 or 0.4%

Dow in Silver Ounces : 401.95
Dow in Silver Ounces 13-Jan : 421.19
Change : -19.24 or -4.6%

Dow Industrial : 12,720.48
Dow Industrial 13-Jan : 12,422.21
Change : 298.27 or 2.4%

S&P 500 : 1,315.38
S&P 500 13-Jan : 1,289.10
Change : 26.28 or 2.0%

US Dollar Index : 80.155
US Dollar Index 13-Jan : 81.531
Change : -1.376 or -1.7%

Platinum Price Close Today : 1,530.50
Platinum Price Close 13-Jan : 1,485.80
Change : 44.70 or 3.0%

Palladium Price Close Today : 673.85
Palladium Price Close 13-Jan : 636.70
Change : 37.15 or 5.8%

The GOLD PRICE and SILVER PRICE utterly blasted my expectations today, and crushed underfoot any suspicion of a key reversal from yesterday. Yet here, too, lurk two different stories, subtle, but not quite agreeing.

Let's take the SILVER PRICE first. It vaulted 116.5c (3.8%) today to close Comex at 3164.7c. It brushed that 3060c resistance aside like the Terminator flinging cops right and left, and climbed straight up. Never sank lower than 3029c today, and at its apogee reached 3191c. Notice, too, that it closed near the top of that range.

Internally more was going on than just that. SILVER jumped over the hurdle of its 50 DMA (3103c) and o'erleapt and internal resistance line. Let's just say silver's shirt is full of starch.

Gives me a headache to think about it, looking at the weekly chart: have I missed the low in silver? Wait, wait, there's also such a thing as a false breakout, and toward the end of metals' rallies silver always tends to outrun gold.

Either way, Silver's next stubborn resistance hangs in the sky overhead at 3400c. It could make that leap next week. However, if Monday comes a cropper and silver loses 200c or so, you'll know it was a false breakout. Otherwise, buy it at the market.

But listen as the GOLD PRICE speaks out of both sides of its mouth. It closed today up $9.60, higher than yesterday, at $1,663.7, new high close for the move, but did not today post a new intraday high. High reached only $1,666. Why didn't gold punch through $1,670 when silver was so manic?

I don't know. Maybe it means nothing, maybe it only means that resistance there is very strong and gold will play catch-up next week, maybe the NGM take offense and react when gold reaches $1,670. But look here: if gold pierces that $1,680 next week, and then works through $1,705, stop waiting and buy. The bottom has passed, a new rally has started.

Dear friends, listen and ponder: the GOLD and SILVER bull market is yet young. The public has not yet climbed aboard, and only a few investment professionals. What we have seen so far is pasty, bland cottage cheese compared to what is coming. Don't be caught standing around trying to make your mind up, only to watch silver and gold run away.

Within the markets are planted automatic circuit breakers, set to explode Humility Bombs whenever you begin to believe that you have things figured out. I stepped on those mines today.

What a week! SILVER gained -- look! --- 7.3%, while GOLD moved up only 2%. Dow gained more than gold, 2.4%, platinum augmented 3% (a word for you engineers out there), and palladium added 5.8%. Dollar index dropped 1.7%, and probably broke its rally's back.

I love kids, but mine were always easy to catch whenever they were doing something wrong. If I got one alone and asked him what he had been doing, he said one thing. When another said something else, I knew I wasn't getting the story whole.

It's the same way with markets. When markets that SHOULD confirm don't, some monkey business is afoot behind the scenes.

So today I ask myself, how could the Dow rise 96.5 points (0.76%) while the broader S&P500 rose only 0.88 (0.07%)? And when the Dow rose 3/4%, why did the Nasdaq and Nasdaq-100 DROP? Somebody's story doesn't match here, and when that happens with markets, the larceny of Nice Government Men pops instantly to mind. I don't want to become one of those imagination-challenged boors who blames everything on government intervention, but that doesn't mean they don't intervene. And we KNOW they have a special group, the President's Working Group on Markets, set up in the Reagan reign to manipulate the stock market. I suspect they treat the Dow, the most widely watched stock index, as a kind of Potemkin village for the economy, a number they try to keep perky so we mushrooms will feel good and not panic.

Anyhow, the Dow (if not the S&P500 or Nasdaq), has penetrated overhead resistance. If the move is real, then stocks ought to advance smartly, not dragging feet. We'll see. None of this, lest you conclude otherwise, changes my long term view of stocks, which are locked in a bear market (primary downtrend). If it's a rally, this, too, shall pass, and more diving shall follow.

Dow today ended at 12,720.48, up 96.50 or 0.76%. S&P 500 closed 1,315.38, up 0.88 (0.07%).

I bet y'all wonder why I waste good electrons talking about the scrofulous US dollar index and scabby euro and scurvy yen. Easy: they are the chief competitors to silver and gold. Their course offers guidance where the metals are headed, and chronicles the metals' ongoing war of annihilation against all the phony fiat currencies in the world.

Dollar ended the day down only 6.1 basis points (0.08%) at 80.155, thus capping a week of disaster. Dollar index smashed through its uptrend line today. That does not guarantee twill proceed lower, as it did the same for several days early this month and again in December, but whenever a market breaks a trend line or resistance, the presumption states it will continue in that direction.

Anyway, think about the backdrop. The world's states are engaged in a very polite war of competitive devaluation, trying to build their own economies at their neighbor's expense. Everyone smiles and bows and says they're working together, but back in the office they are figuring out how to lower their currency's value. Truth is, neither the Bernancubus nor the White House Toad want an appreciating dollar. Worse, they've had a fight on their hands as scared money poured out of the euro all summer, headed for refuge in US treasuries and driving up the dollar.

For what technical analysis is worth under these manipulated circumstances, today the dollar index fell through both its uptrend line AND the 20 day moving average (80.51). That targets a fall at least to the 50 DMA (79.39), although some support lingers around 79.70 - 79.85.

Euro today closed lower as traders took profits out of their week, 1.2931, down 0.23%. Yen changed nothing, up 0.11% at 129.83c/Y100 (Y77.03/US$1).

Also, I have learned that altogether y'all know almost everything in the world, so I have a question. Anybody know where I can find a slightly used 10 - 20 kilowatt PROPANE generator, a good brand like Kohler? Drop me an email if you do, please.

Again I must confess, I just don't get it. I heard a lady from South Carolina on National Proletarian Radio (voice of Socialism Worldwide). They are voting in the meaningless Republican primary for president this weekend, you know, the one with the Invisible Candidate (R*n P**l). This lady lives in a county with 12% unemployed, and she said they needed to elect somebody who could help them. I gasped for air.

Doesn't she understand that the government is the REASON we suffer economic turmoil and instability? Rotten money?

With all due respect, when did anybody from any government ever help anybody? Of the three greatest lies in the world, the first on the list is, "Hi! I'm from the government, and I'm here to help you." All government money comes with a sock in the jaw. All government help comes with ropes, chains, and shackles.

I don't get it. Why can I see this, and somebody from South Carolina (of all places!) not see it? When are folks going to wake up grasp that the government cavalry is NOT coming, and you don't want 'em to? If anybody is going to help us, it will have to be US, and we have to start by re-building our own local economies, working to restore our neighbor's prosperity as well as our own, building on a sound foundation of clean local food grown by local people. That's just for starters.

I just don't get it. We're standing on acres of diamonds, and people still want to call in the government to screw everything up even more than they already have.

Y'all enjoy your weekend!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2012, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission.

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.