Thursday, May 05, 2016

Silver and Gold Turned up in December After a Nearly 5 Year Downward Correction


5-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,271.40-1.90-0.1
Silver Price, $/oz17.300.030.1
Gold/Silver Ratio73.483-0.111-0.2
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01360.00000.1
Platinum1,063.208.800.8
Palladium600.954.250.7
S&P 5002,050.63-0.49-0.0
Dow17,660.719.450.1
Dow in GOLD $s287.150.610.2
Dow in GOLD oz13.890.030.2
Dow in SILVER oz1,020.73-0.93-0.1
US Dollar Index93.760.570.6
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,277.70   
GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,310.921,320.501,320.50
1/2 AE0.50651.12673.991,347.97
1/4 AE0.25328.75343.381,373.53
1/10 AE0.10134.05139.911,399.08
Aust. 100 corona0.981,246.141,255.141,280.49
British sovereign0.24303.03316.031,342.51
French 20 franc0.19240.34244.341,308.71
Krugerrand1.001,289.201,299.201,299.20
Maple Leaf1.001,287.701,301.701,301.70
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50734.68670.791,341.59
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25325.81341.781,367.14
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10135.44139.271,392.69
Mexican 50 peso1.211,529.611,540.611,277.77
.9999 bar1.001,282.171,289.701,289.70
SPOT SILVER:17.36   
SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7722.5026.0033.99
VG+ Peace dollar0.7717.5020.0026.14
90% silver coin bags0.7212,984.4013,270.4018.56
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,003.205,165.2017.51
100 oz .999 bar100.001,761.001,786.0017.86
10 oz .999 bar10.00175.10180.1018.01
1 oz .999 round1.0017.4617.9217.92
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0018.8620.1120.11
SPOT PLATINUM:1,063.20   
PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Platinum Platypus1.001,078.201,108.201,108.20
I'll be away tomorrow, undergoing surgery on my toe, so I'm sending out the weekly wrap-up today. 

Silver & gold prices corrected most of the week, no surprise after recent huge gains. Stocks are well and truly fractured, and show it. US dollar index most likely turned up this year, but with politically motivated currency exchange rates, that can turn on a dime, & Janet Yellen will chip in the dime. 

US dollar index hit the bottom of the range (92.50) with a low at 91.88, then recovered with a key reversal that has lifted it for three days. Presumption floating in the air is that the dollar will now rush toward the range's top boundary (100). I still suspect the central banks have struck a deal to let the dollar sink a while, and with this dollar rise they are playing the market like you playing a big old bass on the line. But technically, at least, the dollar is forecasting higher prices. Here's the chart of the nasty thing, http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT 

Dow rose 9.45 (0.05%) to 17,660.71, but who do the Nice Government Men think they are kidding? Mercy, the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, S&P500, and Russell 2000 all fell. Dow's rise today is mere tape-painting for the headlines. Listen to my words: LOWER stock prices are coming soon. Stay in 'em at your own peril. 
Dow in gold and Dow in silver both reinforced their downtrends this week. Dow in gold fell through the uptrend from the 2011 low, Dow in silver came close to setting a new low. Look here, http://schrts.co/ohwLZP and here, http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc 

On Comex today gold fell $1.90 (0.15%) at the close, $1,271.40. Silver rose 2.5¢ to 1730.2¢, but those figures look a little low, judging by what I saw all day and by the aftermarket. There Gold is $1,277.70 and silver 1736¢. 

Only one issue with the precious metals right now: will this be a large or small correction? That is, will it correct the entire rise from January, or has another leg up begun which, after this short, shallow correction, will at once climb higher? Unhappily for the curious, markets didn't tip their hand today. Gold closed barely below the uptrend line, but did the same all through April's latter half without ever breaking down. 

Look, http://schrts.co/pI1ZgR Silver has backed off the top of a trading channel whose size was doubled when it broke through the upper boundary of the earlier channel, http://schrts.co/t9IUae 

Normally that says, "Expect lower prices." Several factors witness a lot of speculative froth in the metals, thanks to central bank meddling. Now that they're meddling the other way, strengthening the dollar rather than weakening it, we'll see how much sinew that gold & silver demand really has. Personally I expect to see them rising into June, but the market may slap my jaws for a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee.

Of this much I remain sure: silver and gold turned up in December after a nearly 5 year downward correction. Stocks bull market topped in May 2015 and broke in August 2015. For the next 5 - 8 years expect higher, much higher silver & gold prices and lower, much lower stock prices. 
Count on it. 

Y'all pray for me, having to go under the knife tomorrow. I hope to send my next commentary on Monday, God willing. 

SPECIAL OFFERS: 

Here are Special Offers, based on spot gold at $1,277.50 & spot silver at $17.40. 

SPECIAL OFFER No. 1: ASSORTED TWENTY FRANCS 

Napoleon Bonaparte, as emperor of France, reformed the French monetary system after the Revolutionary inflation destroyed the currency. He settled on a 90% fine (21.6 karat) 20 franc coin containing 0.1867 troy ounce of gold, and on that founded the Latin Monetary Union. All the nations who joined that union minted their gold coins to the same standard: French 20 francs, Swiss 20 francs, Belgian 20 francs, Italian 20 Lira, Greek 20 drachmai, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, and on and on. 

Thanks to the big French empire, 20 franc coins of all the LMU nations rank among the most popular gold coins in the world, & are traded all over the globe. 

I have MOSTLY French 20 franc Roosters, with a few Swiss 20 francs, Belgian, and Napoleon III. I will sell mixed types (my choice of types) at $249.25 each, a 4.5% premium over their gold content, based on spot gold at $1,277.50. 

One lot contains Ten (10) Twenty franc gold coins at $249.25 each or a total of $2,492.50, plus $35 shipping for a total of $2,527.42. I have only 34 lots, and, YES, you may order multiple lots. Offer good only while supply lasts. If you order multiple lots, we only charge shipping ONCE. 

OFFER NO. 2, GOLD BRITISH SOVEREIGN 

The British empire's size and longevity made the British sovereign (one pound sterling) the most common and well-recognized gold coin in the world. Minted from 1818 until today, they are 22 karat (91-2/3% pure gold) & contain 0.2354 troy ounce fine gold. These are mildly circulated coins, in my choice of types: Jubilee Head Victoria, Veiled Head Victoria, Edward VII, George V, or even Elizabeth 1. All have the same reverse, Pistrucci's 1818 St. George slaying the dragon, with the reigning sovereign on the obverse. 

One lot is Ten (10) British sovereigns at $312.15 each for a total of $3,121.50 plus $35 shipping, a grand total of $3,156.50 for 2.3540 troy ounces fine gold. With spot gold at $1,277.50, that's a 3.9% premium. Offer lasts only as long as supply lasts. 

OFFER NO. 3, DIE STRUCK TEN OZ. SILVER BARS 

Based on Spot Silver at $17.36, I will sell lots of Twelve (12) ten troy ounce die struck silver bars, my choice of brands, at $183.60 each, or a grand total of $2,203.20 plus $35 shipping for a grand total of $2,238.20. Based on spot silver at $17.36, that's a 5.8% premium. Offer good for four lots only (plus one lot of 18 bars), and expires once those are spoken for. Yes, you may order multiple lots. 

Special Conditions: 
First come, first served, and no re-orders at these prices. I will write orders based on the time I receive your e-mail. 

Sorry, we will not take orders for less than the minimum shown above.

All sales on a strict "no-nag" basis. We will ship as soon as your check clears, but we allow Two weeks (14 days) for your check to clear. Calls looking for your order two days after we receive your check will be politely and patiently rebuffed. ORDERING INSTRUCTIONS: 

1. You may order by e-mail only to [email protected] No phone orders, please. 

Your email must include your complete name, address, & phone number. We cannot ship to you without your address. Sorry, we cannot ship outside the United States or to Tennessee. 

Please mention goldprice.org in your email. 

2. When you buy from us, we cannot later change or cancel the trade. We are giving you our word that we will sell at that price, & you are giving us your word that you will buy at that price, regardless what later happens in the market, up or down. 

If you break your word to us, we will never again do business with you. 

3. "First come, first-served" means that we will enter the orders in the order that we receive them by e-mail, till supply is exhausted. 

4. If your order is filled, we will e-mail you a confirmation. If you do not receive a confirmation, your order was not filled. 

5. You must send payment by personal check or bank wire (either one is fine) within 48 hours. It just needs to be in the mail, not in our hands, in 48 hours. Sorry, no credit cards. 

7. "No Nag Basis" means that we allow fourteen (14) days for personal checks to clear before we ship. 
Want your order faster? Send a bank wire, but that's not required. Once we ship, the post office takes four to fourteen days to get the registered mail package to you. All in all, you'll see your order in about one month if you send a check. 



Y'all enjoy your weekend. 


Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Price of Gold Closed at $1273.30 Down $17.40 or -1.35%

4-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,273.30-17.40-1.35%
Silver Price, $/oz17.28-0.20-1.13%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.699-0.165-0.22%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01360.00000.22%
Platinum1,054.40-15.70-1.47%
Palladium594.70-12.40-2.04%
S&P 5002,051.12-12.25-0.59%
Dow17,651.26-99.65-0.56%
Dow in GOLD $s286.572.270.80%
Dow in GOLD oz13.860.110.80%
Dow in SILVER oz1,021.665.820.57%
US Dollar Index93.190.260.28%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,280.40   
GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,314.971,323.291,323.29
1/2 AE0.50652.49675.411,350.82
1/4 AE0.25329.45344.111,376.43
1/10 AE0.10134.34140.201,402.04
Aust. 100 corona0.981,248.771,257.771,283.18
British sovereign0.24303.67316.671,345.23
French 20 franc0.19240.84244.841,311.43
Krugerrand1.001,291.921,301.921,301.92
Maple Leaf1.001,290.401,304.401,304.40
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50736.23672.211,344.42
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25326.50342.511,370.03
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10135.72139.561,395.64
Mexican 50 peso1.211,534.391,545.391,281.74
.9999 bar1.001,284.881,292.401,292.40
SPOT SILVER:17.39   
SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7722.5026.0033.99
VG+ Peace dollar0.7717.5020.0026.14
90% silver coin bags0.7213,002.2813,288.2818.59
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,010.585,172.5817.53
100 oz .999 bar100.001,763.501,788.5017.89
10 oz .999 bar10.00175.35180.3518.04
1 oz .999 round1.0017.4917.9517.95
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0018.8920.1420.14
SPOT PLATINUM:1,054.40   
PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Plat. Platypus1.001,069.401,099.401,099.40

Never disremember that currency exchange rates cannot be trusted. Why? Central banks manipulate the rates. Wherefore the extremest caution is in order when resting any decision on the direction of exchange rates, for they can abruptly reverse & cream you like mashed potatoes. 

Now 'tis true that the US dollar appears to have turned up & back from the lip of hell. It posted a Key Reversal yesterday & tomorrow (regardless of the market, I'd like to add one more day's confirming close to that). But I remind y'all that on 14 April the dollar seemed to have turned, & numbrous other times I could name. If the colluding central bank criminals have agreed to let the US dollar drop much lower, they will not pull the props out all at once, lest an unseemly panic damage all scrofulous fiat currencies. Rather, they play the market like a master fisherman plays a bass, now giving him line, now taking it away, but always deceiving the poor fish, doomed for the frying pan. 

I'm saying this not to alibi for falling gold & silver, merely to remind y'all that exchange rate movements are generated in wildly unpredictable political criminal central bank minds, and not in nature. 

Besides, I want y'all to ruminate on something else: central banks are fast losing credibility. Now measles is not a "credible" disease in that everyone scorns it, but it can still kill you. So, before central banks breath their longed-for final stinking breath, they are still dangerous, especially when fighting for their lives. That doesn't alter, however, the metals' December change in trend from five-years-down to UP. So whatever shenanigans the CB criminals may pull, silver & gold will keep steadily rising over the next 5-8 years. 

Disbelieve that at your financial peril. 

Stocks keep on rolling headlong downhill. Dow lost another 99.65 (0.56%) today and closed at 17,651.26. S&P500 held hands with the Dow, losing 12.25 (0.59%) to 2,051.12. 

Stocks have now fallen out of a rising wedge, broken down through their up-channel line, poked through the 20 day moving average, and perched unsteadily just above their 50 day moving averages. Can some shiny-pointy-toed-shoe Wall Streeter to 'splain to me how this is coming back? I'm such a nat'ral born durned fool I can't figger it out, bless my heart. 

Gold lost $17.40 (1.35%) today for a $1,273.30 close. Low came at $1,273.60. Silver peeled off 19.7¢ (1.13%) to close Comex at 1727.7¢. 

Clearly gold has topped for the moment, but aside from that brilliant observation, what do it mean?? Is this a large correction starting, or only a tee-tiny one? 

Durned if I know. If it's only a small correction in a larger rally, then the correction will be short & shallow, maybe dropping to $1,245. If a larger degree correction, gold could fall to $1,200. 

Today it stopped at the uptrend line from the January low. http://schrts.co/PyOpGt 

Gold has everything going for it that an overbought market need to accumulate before a correction: terrible Commitments of Traders, height above 200 DMA, overbought RSI, and multitudinous hot money speculators that have piled on to take their bite out of the "inflation trade." But none of that tells me whether it will be a short or long correction, at least, not yet. Price will tell us in the next few days. 

If gold is overbought, silver is overboughter, and enjoys all the drawbacks & warts of gold. However, the question remains, Will this be a large or small correction? A small one would work off the overboughtness so the rally could continue. 

For right now, some indecision remains. However, both metals are entering a correction. That leaves us waiting for some turn-around signal. Keep watching. 

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Gold Price Backed Off $4.00 or -0.31% to $1290.70

3-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,290.70-4.00-0.31%
Silver Price, $/oz17.47-0.18-1.03%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.8640.5350.73%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0135-0.0001-0.72%
Platinum1,070.10-14.80-1.36%
Palladium609.10-15.90-2.54%
S&P 5002,063.37-18.06-0.87%
Dow17,750.91-140.25-0.78%
Dow in GOLD $s284.30-1.36-0.48%
Dow in GOLD oz13.75-0.07-0.48%
Dow in SILVER oz1,015.852.530.25%
US Dollar Index92.930.310.33%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,287.10   
GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,324.431,330.221,330.22
1/2 AE0.50655.91678.951,357.89
1/4 AE0.25331.17345.911,383.63
1/10 AE0.10135.04140.941,409.37
Aust. 100 corona0.981,255.311,264.311,289.85
British sovereign0.24305.26318.261,351.98
French 20 franc0.19242.10246.101,318.18
Krugerrand1.001,298.681,308.681,308.68
Maple Leaf1.001,297.101,311.101,311.10
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50740.08675.731,351.46
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25328.21344.301,377.20
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10136.43140.291,402.94
Mexican 50 peso1.211,540.871,551.871,287.11
.9999 bar1.001,291.601,299.101,299.10
SPOT SILVER:17.44   
SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7722.5026.0033.99
VG+ Peace dollar0.7717.5020.0026.14
90% silver coin bags0.7212,966.5313,252.5318.54
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,025.335,187.3317.58
100 oz .999 bar100.001,768.501,793.5017.94
10 oz .999 bar10.00175.85180.8518.09
1 oz .999 round1.0017.5418.0018.00
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0018.9420.1920.19
SPOT PLATINUM:1,070.10   
PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Plat. Platypus1.001,085.101,115.101,115.10

Today the US dollar index pulled back from the brink, but not much. It slurped up 31 basis points (0.34%) to close at 92.93. About the best thing you can say about that is, "Well, it didn't tumble into the abyss, yet." 
No, I can say better. Today it dropped into new low territory , hitting 91.88, BUT recovered and closed higher than yesterday. Yea, 'tis the first day of a two-day Key Reversal, requiring for validation a higher close again tomorrow -- really the next day as well. 

That low came in overnight trading at 4:00 a.m. eastern time, and the dollar climbed at 45 degrees the rest of the day. Now I am suspicious & even bite nickels to make sure they are genuine, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the ever vigilant Nice Government Men didn't jump in there & give the dollar a frantically necessary push up. I sure would have if I were them, or Janet Yellen, but that presupposes that they all have as much gray matter as a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee, which is leaning on believability a bit too hard. 

The brave and decrepit euro fell 0.29% to $1.1499 and the Yen fell 0.18% to 93.79. 

Yep, yep, Dow gained 118 yesterday and lost 140.25 (0.78%) today for a 17,750.91 close. S&P500 slid 18.06 (0.87%) to 2,063.37. I despise repeating myself, but here I am doing it over again: Stocks are broken. Not coming back. Will sink from here. Like a worn out old actor, they will soon carry a sign that says, "Will work for beer." 

Oil (WTIC) has painted itself into a rising wedge. Yes, it broke up through the downtrend, and even came back & kissed it goo- bye, but hasn't quite managed to achieve escape velocity. Above the 200 DMA and the 20 DMA, but without closing above $46.78 (last high), the next move will be determined by gravity, not Bernoulli's principle. Y'all see for yourselves, http://schrts.co/KvfGnd 

Gold backed off $4.00 (0.31%) to $1,290.70 but silver tumbled 18.2¢ (3.1%) to 1747.4¢. 

What did y'all expect, now really? Did y'all think gold would just rise & keep on rising, slicing through all resistance like a new Cutco knife through hot lard? No, weighty resistance like the $1,308 level, 2015's high, may take two or even three tries to bust through. Worse than that that scurvy US dollar is trashing up the picture, weaving back and forth over the lip of hell. 

Makes no difference. I will not even be downcast if gold drops back to $1,250, BECAUSE THAT ADVANCE THROUGH $1,308 IS COMING. Late or soon, it's coming. More than that, silver has plumb outdone itself & the moon to boot, shooting up since April. Add to that the December bottoms & faltering stocks & a Fed that don't know sic 'em from come here about what to do next -- folks, it is a sure-fire recipe for higher silver & gold. Trust your government, trust your central bank. Central banks are the very best friends precious metals have in the whole round world. 

Sometimes I could wring my son Justin's neck. He was supposed to pick up pigs from my house and bring them up to the farm to farrow. Called me while I was writing this and said, "You have to come look at this pig. There's something wrong with her." 

My mind's not on that. I'm preoccupied with Bridget's disappearance. She's our pit bull/Husky mix we've had 7 or 8 years. Catherine Fitts brought her over here as a puppy because they kill pit bulls in the county she lives in. That dog chewed everything thing in our yard. Ate flower pots. Metal ones. Jaws like Godzilla. But by and by she calmed down and I got to liking her. And she was smart: figured out how to open our drop-latch front door, & just let herself in whenever she wanted. Came in every evening to sleep under the stairs. Snored outrageously. 

Friday the electric fence collar we use went kaput, and last I saw of Bridget was her running out through the woods. We've looked everywhere for her, & I've just given up trying. I was sure she was dead. Susan really set some store by that dog. I am not that sentimental, but Susan was considering setting me up on suicide watch after Bridget disappeared. 


So I drove over to the barn to see what was wrong with that pig, and there in the truck my son was backing the trailer with flashed a white tail tip: Bridget! She had taken up with somebody on Suck Stem Branch, and showed ne'er a trace of shame. If I hadn't been so glad to see her I'd have taken a peach tree limb to her.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Monday, May 02, 2016

Gold Price Closed at $1294.70 up $5.50 or 0.43%

2-May-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,294.705.500.43%
Silver Price, $/oz17.66-0.13-0.75%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.3290.8571.18%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0136-0.0002-1.17%
Platinum1,084.907.000.65%
Palladium625.00-2.90-0.46%
S&P 5002,081.4316.130.78%
Dow17,891.16117.520.66%
Dow in GOLD $s285.660.670.23%
Dow in GOLD oz13.820.030.23%
Dow in SILVER oz1,013.3214.181.42%
US Dollar Index92.62-0.41-0.44%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.

SPOT GOLD:1,292.30   
GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,329.781,335.591,335.59
1/2 AE0.50658.56681.691,363.38
1/4 AE0.25332.51347.311,389.22
1/10 AE0.10135.59141.511,415.07
Aust. 100 corona0.981,260.381,269.381,295.02
British sovereign0.24306.49319.491,357.22
French 20 franc0.19243.08247.081,323.42
Krugerrand1.001,303.931,313.931,313.93
Maple Leaf1.001,302.301,316.301,316.30
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50743.07678.461,356.92
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25329.54345.691,382.76
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10136.98140.861,408.61
Mexican 50 peso1.211,547.091,558.091,292.27
.9999 bar1.001,296.821,304.301,304.30
SPOT SILVER:17.55   
SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7722.5026.0033.99
VG+ Peace dollar0.7717.5020.0026.14
90% silver coin bags0.7213,048.7513,334.7518.65
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,059.255,221.2517.70
100 oz .999 bar100.001,780.001,805.0018.05
10 oz .999 bar10.00177.00182.0018.20
1 oz .999 round1.0017.6518.1118.11
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.0520.3020.30
SPOT PLATINUM:1,084.90   
PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Plat. Platypus1.001,099.901,129.901,129.90

Y'all remember, of course, that the main driver of currency exchange rates is the relative interest rate. "Relative" here means "interest rate LESS expected loss from inflation." But that little fillip aside, interest rates drive exchange rates. 

And the Fed lured folks into believing they would raise rates. Blew smoke so effectively that the US dollar index rose from 80 in July 2014 to 100+ in March 2015. 

Alas, as every poker player knows, you can only blow smoke so long before you have to lay down cards. Last September, the Fed passed on raising rates, just flinched. Last December, they raised their discount rate a contemptible 0,.25%, but even that little spit in the wind nearly wrecked the world's stock markets. 
Since September the dollar has taken sucker punches from one palooka after another, trashy ECB and scummy BoJ. Finally last week the Fed flinched again, and the BoJ announced it would NOT take its rate lower into negative territory. Relatively, that was a RISE in Japanese rates, a higher rise since the Fed like a drunk trying to quit shoved off its deadline another four or five months into the always-disappearing future. 

In the last six trading days the US dollar index has dropped every single day, from 95.08 to 92.62 today, a 2.6% loss. That's big in the currency world. Thursday it dropped 69 basis points, Friday 70, and today another 41 (0.44%) for that 92.62 close. Lo, one beginneth to recall fondue, as the cubed cheese begins to heat up and deform in the pot. What's that called? Right, MELT-DOWN.

At 92.62 the dollar stands on the very cliff's edge, backwards, balancing on its toes. Y'all go look for yourselves, http://schrts.co/O5dDKu 

Only thing going for the US dollar index is the Commitments of Traders reports, which argue for a reversal. However that won't argue very hard with a close below 92.50. And behold! From 92.50 back to the 2014 breakout at 80, no support appeareth, no, not none, leading on to deduce that cracking that 92.50 will bring an epic dollar plunge, or dare I say, melt down? 

Miss not this: if the dollar does turn around here, it raises suspicions it will run back to 100. 
While the dollar is melting down, the yen is melting up. It lost 0.07% today, but still closed at 94.10. Lo, the chart, http://schrts.co/UuqBFa

Euro is profiting from the dollar's distress. Rose 0.75% to $1.1532. It has moved furiously sideways for the past 12 months, but today closed above 1.1500 for the first time since early 2015 (save for a one day spike). If it escapes thru the range's top at $1.1500+, it ought to run. Yet who can tell with currencies? It's a fool that tries to read intent in a central banker's heart. 

Stocks gained today, but when you lose 260 points over two days and gain back 117 points the third, that ain't progress. Well, maybe that's progress in socialist countries, but not in sane lands. Whoa. Come to think of it, there ain't no sane lands in the world today.

Dow gained 117.52 (0.66%) to 17,891.16. SP500 added 16.13 (0.78%) to 2,081.43. I will forbear to mention my suspicions of Nice Government Men painting the tape or jimmying the prices. Shucks, y'all are probably already suspecting that all on your own. 

Gold & silver prices couldn't agree today. The gold price climbed $5.50 (0.43%) to $1,294.70 while silver price slid 13.3¢ (0.75%) to 1765.6¢. 

Meseemeth no problem lieth here. Gold is taking leadership out of silver's hands (the gold/ silver ratio jumped up today). The gold price backed up to the breakout point with a low at $1,289.60. Normal action, nothing to mourn & weep & shiver about. Touched $1,306 at its high, and the BIG TARGET is $1,308, the 2015 high. Should gold close above that point, 'twill be the first time since 2011 it has closed above a previous year's high.

Y'all paying attention? This is a momentous step. Gigantic. Portentous. 

Silver did nothing to be ashamed of. It remains above every close in this move from December save Thursday's & Friday's. It's a well deserved pause before shooting higher.

THE STICK IN THE SPOKES: Yes, there's always one. For gold & silver it is the frowning CoT reports, which favor not higher prices. However, remember that surprises in bull moves come to the Upside. Those CoT stats can stay out of whack quite a while before they wreak their vengeance. Overbought can always get overboughter. However, it behooves our peace of mind & equinimity to keep reminding ourselves that speculative buying is driving this, and if any of the drivers weaken or disappear (like the US dollar rallying), it could quickly end.

Put it into perspective. I'm only talking about this current rally. Silver & gold completed their 2011-2015 correction in December. Next five to 8 years both will move so much higher I am loathe to name numbers, lest y'all send after me the men with the jacket that buckles in the back.

My son Christian is trying to sell his house here on the Top of the World Farm & asked me to give y'all a link to it, so here 'tis, http://bit.ly/1pXfBBf It was built in 2011. Pretty place. Peaceful. 


Also, I have the temerity to remind y'all of my heartfelt request. I have to have foot surgery on Friday, 6 May, and would deeply appreciate y'all's prayers. Thanks in advance.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Sunday, May 01, 2016

Gold Price has $1,308 in this Move, and Much More

22-Apr-1629-Apr-16Change% Change
Silver Price, cents/oz.1,689.601,778.9089.305.3
Gold Price, dollars/oz.1,228.701,289.2060.504.9
Gold/silver ratio72.72172.472-0.250-0.3
Silver/gold ratio0.01380.01380.00000.3
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)302.90284.99-17.90-5.9
Dow in gold ounces14.6513.79-0.87-5.9
Dow in Silver ounces1,065.56999.14-66.43-6.2
Dow Industrials18,003.7517,773.64-230.11-1.3
S&P5002,091.582,065.30-26.28-1.3
US dollar index95.0893.03-2.05-2.2
Platinum1,010.001,077.9067.906.7
Palladium607.15627.9020.753.4

IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure
the-moneychanger.com retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure the-moneychanger.com retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.

SPOT GOLD PRICE:1,292.90
GOLDFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
American Eagle1.001,330.391,336.211,336.21
1/2 AE0.50658.87682.001,364.01
1/4 AE0.25332.66347.471,389.87
1/10 AE0.10135.65141.571,415.73
Aust. 100 corona0.981,260.961,269.961,295.62
British sovereign0.24306.63319.631,357.82
French 20 franc0.19243.19247.191,324.02
Krugerrand1.001,304.541,314.541,314.54
Maple Leaf1.001,302.901,316.901,316.90
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50743.42678.771,357.55
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25329.69345.851,383.40
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10137.05140.931,409.26
Mexican 50 peso1.211,547.811,558.811,292.87
.9999 bar1.001,297.431,304.901,304.90
SPOT SILVER PRICE:17.85
SILVERFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7722.5026.0033.99
VG+ Peace dollar0.7717.5020.0026.14
90% silver coin bags0.7213,295.4313,580.4318.99
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,146.285,308.2817.99
100 oz .999 bar100.001,809.501,834.5018.35
10 oz .999 bar10.00179.95184.9518.50
1 oz .999 round1.0017.9518.4118.41
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.3520.6020.60
SPOT PLATINUM PRICE:1,077.90
PLATINUMFine Tr.Oz.BIDASK$/oz
Platinum Platypus1.001,092.901,122.901,122.90

Friday I had to leave early to take my dear wife Susan on a camping trip with one of our sons and his family, so I am sending this out Saturday, & 'twill be short & sweet. 

This week came the last straw on the camels' backs. For stocks, it was down, the death of their rally, the proof of their bear market. For silver & gold, it was an upside breakout that will carry gold toward $1,400 and silver toward 1850¢. The dollar is puking sick. Lost 2.05% this week. Close below 92.50 sends it tumbling toward 80. 

Take the US dollar index first, for backdrop. http://schrts.co/OkJ5UT 

Mid-April it broke out of a falling wedge, so should have rallied. Didn't. Went sideways instead, still trading near the bottom of its year long 100 - 92.50 range. Then Kuroda of the Bank of Japan announced this week they weren't taking interest rates further negative, which markets interpreted same as a rate rise. All that speculative hope that the Fed would raise rates just melted like nasty margarine on a July table. Dollar plunged through the bottom of its short term trading range, through the downtrend line from last May, which had supported it, & closed lower than the low of the falling wedge, negating that breakout utterly. 

Dollar's credibility for the next few years hangs in the balance. Closed Friday at 93.03, down 70 basis points on top of 69 lost Thursday. Low Friday was 92.97. If the dollar index breaks 92.50, there is no coming back. 

This turmoil has taken the yen sharply higher. I cannot naively believe that the Fed knew nothing of Japanese intentions, nay, I always assume all central bank criminals collude. This might mean (this is all guesswork on my part, no claim to inside information, messages from outer space, etc.) that the Japanese and Fed have struck a deal to let the dollar drop for a while. 

After a rotten egg day Thursday pasting the Dow with a 211 point drop (1.17%), it dropped another 57.12 (0.32%) Friday to 17,773.64. Chart shows that however you want to slice it, Dow has broken down, confirming Thursday and Friday with solid consecutive closes below its 20 DMA. Dow lost 19.34 (0.92%) Thursday, and another 10.51 (0.51%) Friday leaving it at 2,065.30. Both indices have fractured, broken down. Transmission is lying on the asphalt. Can move, but only rolling downhill, and will gain momentum. 

Dow in gold lost 2.38% Friday, closed at 13.73 oz. Fell through uptrend line from the 2011 low, again. Upward correction that began in February has ended, next large move is earthward & toward the earth's core. http://schrts.co/8Sv0tc 

Dow in silver closed just a gnat's whisker above the February 991.46 low, namely, 993.50 oz. Will plunge further as stocks drop & silver surges. http://schrts.co/ohwLZP 

Friday gold pole-vaulted all resistance, up $23.70 (1.87%) to $1,289.20. Silver high jumped 23.6 (1.52%) to 1778.9¢, and I am now plumb out of field & track metaphors. 

For the week Gold surged 4.9% and silver 5.3%. Best week in a long, long time. 

The Gold Price has now cleared clean every hurdle but 2015's high at $1,307.80. However, this surge promises much more, a run to $1,350 at least, maybe $1,400 before it pauses. 

Please, y'all, go look at gold's chart: http://schrts.co/YKiKpQ 

Add up what gold has won: It stands above its 200 day moving average, and not merely above but has stayed above since February, which hasn't happened since 2012 & 2014, but with this difference: then it poked its head through the 200, peaked, and wore down. In 2016 it punched sharply, hugely up and continues to climb. Whoops, I forgot: gold also stands above the downtrend from the 2012 high. And it broke upward out of a bowl in January. All this proves that the December lows were THE lows for the post-2011 correction. 

Friday it closed above the March intraday high ($1,287.80) and hit a new intraday high at $1,299.00 Next week it should conquer $1,307.80. 

The Gold Price  has broken out upside -- but not yet conquered the post-2011 downtrend line -- on its weekly and monthly charts. 200 week MA is at $1,325.40. Gold will flash very bright omens when it closes above that. Bear in mind silver this week BROKE OUT HEAVENWARD on its monthly chart & stands above its 200 WMA. On the weekly, silver has broken through the post-2011 downtrend line, the Big One. 

Y'all look at the silver chart, too, http://schrts.co/t9IUae 

Silver's chart, at first glance, doesn't argue for new highs like gold's. Maybe Friday's close above the upper range boundary was just a throwover. Look how overbought that RSI is! Not to Mention the MACD. 
Yep, but volume is rising, and overbought can get overboughter. It appears that after silver tugging and pulling gold higher, gold will now return the favour and tug silver up toward 1850¢.

What would put the stick in their spokes? What will gainsay my expectation of higher highs? A price collapse on Monday. A severe decline, and I don't mean merely backing off $10 for gold, I mean closing below $1,287 AND dropping further. Sharp down move. 

That is NOT what I expect to see. Gold Price has $1,308 in this move, and much more. And this rally should carry into June. 

But then, what in the world do I know? Nothing. I ain't no more'n a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee who don't know that "stock broker" don't mean "you bought stocks so you are broker than I am 

-- You are STOCK BROKER!" 

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver.  US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.