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Thursday, October 30, 2014

The Gold Price Lost 2.14 Percent to Close at $1,198.10

30-Oct-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,198.10-26.20-2.14%
Silver Price, $/oz16.39-0.83-4.84%
Gold/Silver Ratio73.0952.0142.83%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0137-0.0004-2.76%
Platinum Price1,246.90-23.10-1.82%
Palladium Price780.35-20.00-2.50%
S&P 5001,982.30-2.75-0.14%
Dow17,195.42221.111.30%
Dow in GOLD $s296.6910.083.52%
Dow in GOLD oz14.350.493.52%
Dow in SILVER oz1,049.0863.576.45%
US Dollar Index86.260.180.21%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Today the GOLD PRICE lost $26.20 (2.14%) to close 1,198.10 on Comex. Silver lost 83.3 cents (4.84%) to close at $16.391.

Face it: either silver and gold prices are making double bottoms, or they will fall a lot further.

The last lows came on 3 October at $16.78 and $1,192.20. This carries all the more meaning since these were the lowest closes in the 3+ year correction. Intraday low came for the GOLD PRICE at $1,183.30 on 6 October (the following Monday; today's low hit $1,195.50. The SILVER PRICE intraday low on 6 October was $16.60 against $16.33 today.

In itself silver's weaker performance says nothing. More volatile than gold, it always falls further on the downside.

Charts don't look quite the same, either. Gold's low today was higher than the early October low, silver's was not. Today's silver close was also lower.

Technically the picture is grim. Silver and gold prices rallied off those early October lows, but without conquering many technical targets. Now they've fallen off, and it would take a lunatic like me to say, this is one of those places that you puke in your wastebasket and buy. Why? Either this is the touchback low that proves the early October bottom, or it is the breakdown that will trim another $100 off of gold and $2.00 off silver.

Oh, I won't pull the deus ex machina of Nice Government Men out of the box and blame it on them, but I do muse in the back of my mind. How would I react if stocks were tanking and an FOMC announcement didn't quite bail 'em out? If I wanted stocks to keep floating, would I want silver or gold levitating? Or would I hit weaker silver as hard as I could and sell a batch of gold, too?

Y'all are gonna think I've gone crazy as a Betsy-bug, but wait till I explain.

First, the FOMC meeting yesterday confused the stock market but enthused the US dollar index. For the life of me I can't gulp down the titles "dovish" and "hawkish" when it comes to the Fed cause th'only word that pops to my mind is "swinish" Still I struggle through to try to understand what all these clowns mean. I think by "dovish" they mean that the central bank criminals favor more inflation, by "hawkish" less.

Rather than trying to figure out the mental transmission by which Fed watchers and markets draw their conclusions, I would rather point out their actions, for buried within those actions are their conclusions.

Stocks sold off. Dollar rose. Whatever the FOMC statement (using that word to describe a Fed utterance is an insult to the English language) said, stock investors took it to mean their gravy train had derailed, and dollar investors thought it meant the dollar would become worth more. The Dow fell 0.18% (31.44 points), the S&P500 slid 0.14%. US dollar index added 83 basis points, a huge 0.74%.

Today, however, stock buyers re-thought (or Nice Government Men re-bought) and the Dow jumped 221.11 (1.3%) to 17,195.42. S&P500 added 12.35 (0.62%, not quite as much enthusiasm there) to close 1,994.65. US dollar Index rose 0.18 to 86.26. Yesterday gold and silver held on, today they took their big hit.

Think about the whole mess around the dollar. The Fed has been pouring into the financial system as much as $85 billion a month, now suddenly all that's vamoosed. But that extra money was sloshing around the system to finance the $50 billion of new yankee government debt every month, as well as push up stocks. Now that the slosh is squeezed down to a drip, whoops, now that the trough is dry, what happens? The yankee government is GONNA get that deficit financed, and that will be sucking slosh away from stocks. Not a pretty picture, Miss Janet.

Technically the dollar index might look strong, especially with a two day breakout above the downtrend line, but step back from that chart. Chart on the right: Look at that rise from 1 July, practically straight up, then a peak in October and decline. Standard correction behavior is an A-Wave down, a B-wave up, then a C-Wave down. Often the B-wave can be stronger than a garlic milkshake, only to fool you and drop dead in a C-wave. The long preceding hyperbolic rise argues the dollar must correct for quite some time -- that is always the outcome of such spectacular rises. So perhaps the dollar is merely putting in a double top.

What makes all this so irksome is that the Nice Government Men manipulate currencies more than any other market, so technical conclusions might be precisely correct, only to be defeated by the NGM's manipulations. Hence I always tremble to say anything about currencies, not being privy to whatever secret deals they have made at the BIS over rubber chicken in their monthly meetings.

But for a moment, till disproved by a higher high in the dollar index, I am willing to work on this theory, that the US dollar index is making a double top that may even reach a leetle higher than the previous 86.87 top.

Today the US dollar index added 18 basis points (0.21%) to 86.26.

Stocks may be on their way to a double top which may include a higher high, or simply correcting on adrenalin. Either way, it mattereth not. Their next big move is rugward, for a long time.

Dow in Gold
Dow in Gold chart on the right: The last two days have taken it above its previous (early October) high at 14.28 oz (G$295.19) to a new high today at 14.34 oz (G$296.43 gold dollars). Here's another place where we either get a double top and a collapse, or go much higher. No way to chocolate-coat it.

Dow in Silver
Dow in silver, on the left, It has reached way above the early October high at 1,009.78 oz (S$1,305.57 silver dollars) to a new high today at 1,045.31 oz (S$1,351.51). This is the same situation as gold's: either it reverses near here or rises much higher.

I spoke about the US dollar index above, but didn't mention the other scrofulous parasitic blood-sucking fiat currencies, the yen and euro. Euro today broke down from an even-sided triangle, so it should drop more. The answer to the US dollar riddle I laid out above will control here. Euro lost 0.15% to close $1.2611. Yen broke its uptrend yesterday, punching through its uptrend line and plummeting hard. Ended down today 0.30% at 91.55.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, October 29, 2014

The Gold Price Lost $4.90 Today Closing at $1,224.30

29-Oct-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,224.30-4.90-0.40%
Silver Price, $/oz17.220.030.20%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.10-0.43-0.60%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01410.00010.60%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Monday, October 27, 2014

The Gold Price Ranged from $1,222.20 to $1,235.50 Ending Up at $1,229.20

28-Oct-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,229.200.100.01%
Silver Price, $/oz17.190.070.41%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.527-0.287-0.40%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01400.00010.40%
Platinum Price1,267.1011.900.95%
Palladium Price792.506.200.79%
S&P 5001,985.0523.421.19%
Dow17,005.75187.811.12%
Dow in GOLD $s285.993.141.11%
Dow in GOLD oz13.830.151.11%
Dow in SILVER oz989.576.930.70%
US Dollar Index85.45-0.15-0.18%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
The GOLD PRICE ranged from $1,222.20 to $1,235.50 and for a whole day's trading gained exactly 10 cents to $1,229.20. Silver added seven cents to close Comex at $17.185. Range was $17.40 to $17.06.

Looking at the one day chart, it doesn't look quite so boring. Gold shot up at 10:10, even gapped up, reached $1,235, traded up there about an hour, then was slapped down just as fast as it has risen. The SILVER PRICE behaved the same way. One wonders whether the Nice Government Men are nervous about possible gold and silver reactions to the FOMC tomorrow. If, as I suspect, stocks advance on whatever the goofs announce, silver and GOLD PRICES should take a hit, then turn around Thursday or Friday.

Here's another piece of the puzzle. Gold forward rates have moved into backwardation, signifying a push on for physical metal.

Just be patient. Gravity still operates. Not even the almighty yankee government and the all-knowing Fed can defeat gravity.

Since the long shadow of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Wednesday hath put all markets but stocks to sleep, let's think on other things.

Stocks' recovery from their October waterfall plunge (down 8.6% from September highs) illustrates behavior you ought to come to expect. Bear markets exhibit sudden, sharp rallies often driven by short covering. They can recover a large percentage of lost territory, but in the end fail because they are only correcting the foregoing fall. Bear market rallies evaporate as fast as they materialize.

Seems to me -- although I never underestimate the clever central bank criminals -- that the Fed has worked its way into a corner with only two ways out. If they really stick with no more quantitative easing, then they risk what they call a "deflationary collapse" and face unemployment rates of 50%. On the other hand the stock market has clearly turned down and needs another dose of Quantitative Easing to ease its levitating. It's pretty late in the game to do that, so observers are liable to punish the dollar (and reward gold and silver) for more QE. Since it's hard to imagine the Fed not "doing SOMETHING," one assumes they will dive in with more QE as soon as the stock market shoe begins to pinch.

Now, it's possible to drag this out, which is the Fed's usual tactic, but basically they face these two choices, either [what they call] "deflation" or hyperinflation. Whenever y'all get confused by the trees, just back off and view the forest from this perspective.

Stocks are demanding perfection in their anticipation of the FOMC announcement, and some of us already suspect that no quasi-government agency is perfect. Today the Dow jumped 187.81 (1.12%) to 17,005.75. S&P500 jumped 23.42 (1.19%) to 1,985.05. That takes both indices above their 50 day moving averages.

Now I suppose it is possible (but I count it unlikely) that stocks might reach up and make one last high for an enormous double top -- those indices, that is, that haven't already done that. Maybe the FOMC has some trick up its atherosclerotic sleeve that might do that, but I don't know what. Rather, I think all this anticipation will end in disappointment that grabs hold of stocks about Thursday.

US dollar index closed today down 15 basis points (0.17%) to 85.45. That's plumb on the line of support, so much lower and it falls over an edge.

Both the euro and the yen are trying to rally and have established if none to convincing uptrends. Yen has fallen back in the last 2 weeks and now is crawling under its 20 DMA like it wants to turn down. Euro is pushing the upper boundary of a little triangle. It gained 0.30% to $1.2737 today while the yen fell 0.33% to 92.46.

FOMC pronouncement will affect all this. If they push any rise in interest rates out further, it would hurt the dollar.

I have to take my wife Susan up to Nashville for some medical tests tomorrow so I won't be publishing a commentary tomorrow. Y'all will have to suffer the FOMC announcement in my silence.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



The Gold Price Lost $2.10 Closing at $1,229.10

27-Oct-14PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,229.10-2.10-0.17%
Silver Price, $/oz17.11-0.02-0.12%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.81-0.03-0.05%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01390.00000.05%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Since I sent no commentaries four days last week, let's look at the last ten days' trading, that is, since Friday a week ago.

Silver and GOLD PRICES swooned last week when gold failed to penetrate $1,250. More than that I suspect, the rally in stocks sucked wind out of gold's sales. US dollar index also rallied slightly, or at least didn't step through a well cover.

The GOLD PRICE today lost $2.10 to close Comex at $1,229.10. Silver lost 2.1 cents to $17.115. Mercy! What did y'all do the market while I was gone?

'Tain't near as bad as y'all thought. The gold price had rallied up to its 50 DMA, then fell back to the 20 DMA. No big deal. Silver did the same with its 20 DMA.

Right THERE is where the problem lies. The SILVER PRICE has dug its heels in and played the sluggard, not yet breaking through $17.75. And it may get worse the next two days waiting for that accursed FOMC meeting outcome, but after that mayhap the skies will clear.

But y'all look at this, keep your eyes on the horizon: in spite of last week's fall, both metals remain in an uptrend, higher highs and higher lows.

Count on it. Next couple of days y'all ought to be buying, not moping around waiting for the yankee government to come around and steal whatever you have left. Some rob you with a six-gun, some with a fountain pen, but most with a printing press.

The dollar index pushed up against its trading channel's top boundary, but then faded Friday and today. 85.50 marks support. Once broken, the dollar index will fall further. Considering the hyperbolic rise it showed June - September, it has a while to correct, even if it plans to go higher eventually. I know loads of commentators are calling for a higher dollar, but I am not convinced. Course, what does a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee know? Why, we even get daylight later than New York.

Yen had a falling week last week, but began to rally when it hit its 20 day moving average. Uptrend remains unbroken, if wounded. Today it gained 0.31% to 92.79. Euro closed up 0.23% to $1.2699. It fell last week, too, but today climbed back above that 20 DMA. It's a pretty lazy rally.

Speaking of rallies, what damage has the stock rally undone? For the Dow it has merely brought it back up to the downtrend line and almost to the 50 DMA. S&P500 has gotten above that downtrend line, but stalled at the 50 DMA. FOMC announcement this meeting, almost regardless of what they say (and they won't say no surprises), will set off a one day rally. After that shot wears off, look for stocks to sink below the surface again.

Dow and S&P500 gainsaid each other today. Dow rose 12.53 (0.07%) to 16,817.94 but the S&P500 dropped 2.95 (0.15%) to 1,961.63. Momentum is petering out -- volume has been dropping all the way up.

Stock markets were driven to ridiculous heights powered by the Fed's money machine, not economics. Now that the Fed has tapered, so will stocks. You are watching the end of the long stock rally.

Bearing witness thereunto are the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver. All this stock market rallying hath done no more than drive the DiG up to its 20 DMA, recovering about half the ground it had lost, about par for a correction. Rose today 0.56% to 13.73 oz (G$283.82 gold dollars). Remains firmly in a downtrend.

Dow in Silver rose 0.63% to 983.51 oz (S$1,271.61 silver dollars). Correction is a bit higher than gold, typical for silver, and it's above its 20 DMA, but the downtrend abideth.

Y'all enjoy your evening!

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.