All is in Place for a September Gold Price Rally
|Gold Price, $/oz.||1,278.60||1,285.80||7.20||0.6|
|Silver Price, $/oz.||19.361||19.398||0.037||0.2|
|Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)||274.87||274.89||0.02||0.0|
|Dow in gold ounces||13.30||13.30||0.00||0.0|
|Dow in Silver ounces||878.12||881.45||3.34||0.4|
|US dollar index||82.39||82.72||0.33||0.4|
|3 Day Gold Price Chart|
|30 Day Gold Price Chart|
|3 Day Silver Price Chart|
|30 Day Silver Price Chart|
It don't change my mind a bit that silver fell 13.6$ (0.7%) to 1939.8c on Comex, or that the GOLD PRICE coughed up $2.90 (0.23%) to $1,285.80. I still believe you will see stellar September gians.
On a monthly chart the gold price closed higher, but not by much. On the weekly chart the gold price is above the after-August-2011 downtrend line and trying to punch through its 18 and 50 week moving averages.
Monthly chart shows the SILVER PRICE lower for the second month running, but above the downtrend line from April 2013 -- not, however, above the downtrend line from the April 2011 high. Friendly weekly chart shows silver higher for the week and touching but not crossing the 20 week moving average (1997c).
Gold's indicators are hovering around turning up. All is in place for a September rally. But first, gold must climb above $1,305. Look for that next week.
Silver fell back today, bouncing off its 20 DMA (1967c). MACD turned up today, yahoo! Other momentum indicators are turning or pointing upward. Next move is up. Silver must cross above 2000 cents and the 200 DMA at 2007c. For y'all who know only this long post-2011 correction, you will be flabbergasted to see how fast silver can rally.
Stocks inched to new highs, and the US dollar index closed at a new high for the move. Appearances may deceive.
By closing higher for the month the Dow invalidated the Key Reversal it seemed to be flashing as August began. In fact, it closed higher this month and barely inside the uptrend line from the March 2009 low.
Today the Dow added another 18.88 (0.11%) to close at 17,098.45. S&P chimed in with a 6.63 (0.33%) rise to another new high at 2,003.37. Lawsy mercy, along here sometime soon will come a BAD drop. Meanwhile if the S&P500 pushes to the top of the trading channel it would hit about 2020, Dow maybe 17,400.
Everybody loves to buy a rising market. Whoops! Everybody don't get rich, do he?
Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver both jiggled up this week, but without contradicting what appears to be the top posted this week.
Dow in silver today clumb 0.21% to 879.39 oz ($1,136.99 silver dollars). Dow in gold edged up 0.27% to 13.28 oz (G$274.52 gold dollars). Both appear to have topped this week, but must drop further to confirm. View charts at http://scharts.co/VWhHSI and http://scharts.co/1AYnK98
Although the US dollar index made a new high close for the move at 82.72, up 22 basis points, I think the weakness the scrofulous dollar has already shown and its acutely overbought condition will pull it down next week.
Also arguing for that is the painfully oversold euro. It has been dropping now since May, and even if it aims to drop to $1.2755, it needs a little corrective rally here. Adding strength to that viewpoint are the two gaps the euro left behind during August. That looks like a completed move -- very completed (as if "completed" were capable of augmentation.) Euro lost 0.39% to end at $1.3133. A European Vacation is getting cheaper.
Not to mention a trip to Japan. Your sushi became 0.34% cheaper today because you now need only 96.08 pennies to buy 100 yen. Oversold, but no sign of life. Wake that thing up, somebody!
US ten year treasury note yield resolved nothing up or down this week. It broke down the first of August, but hasn't wildly followed through. Ended at 2.343%. If that rate rises suddenly, it will turn Mother Yanet Yellum's hair gray, by Yiminy!
Y'all enjoy your weekend!
Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
© 2014, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.
WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:
Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.
NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.
NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.
NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.
What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.
One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.