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Friday, February 05, 2016

Gold Price Rose Strongly This Week Up 3.7 Percent Closing at $1,157.80


29-Jan-165-Feb-16Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,116.401,157.8041.403.7
Silver Price, $/oz.14.22914.7640.5353.8
Gold/Silver Ratio78.45978.420-0.039-0.0
Silver/gold ratio0.01270.01280.00000.0
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)304.90289.33-15.57-5.1
Dow in gold ounces14.7514.00-0.75-5.1
Dow in Silver ounces1,157.241,097.60-59.63-5.2
Dow Industrials16,466.3016,204.97-261.33-1.6
S&P5001,940.241,880.05-60.19-3.1
US dollar index99.6497.01-2.63-2.6
Platinum Price872.30902.0029.703.4
Palladium Price497.50499.652.150.4

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Lo, the week speaketh, nor can be gainsaid! The SILVER and GOLD PRICE rose strongly, while stocks and the dollar took bullets from every side. Note also gains in platinum and palladium, reinforcing and confirming silver and gold prices. Dow in gold and Dow in silver both sank more than 5%. Dow/metals trend has turned decisively down.

On Comex today where mercy is neither shown nor asked, silver dropped 7.2¢ to close at $14.764. The GOLD PRICE added twenty cents (20, count 'em) to $1,157.80.

HOGWASH! Hogwash! In the aftermarket the gold price popped up $15.50 (1.3%) to $1,173.30. Silver popped 26.6¢ (1.8%) to -- LOOOKY HERE! -- $15.03.

There more, even better, but I'm saving it for later.

Daily chart makes me say HOGWASH. Right at 9:00 a.m. the price of gold gapped from $1,160 to $1,151. That's on a ONE minute chart. It eased down to $1,145, made a rounding bottom, and then right about when Comex closed, jumped, leapt from $1,150 to $1,157.50, traded sideways a while, then shot up.

The old slap-her-down-with-massive-selling aren't working anymore.

SILVER behaved much the same. Gapped down at 9:00 a.m. from $14.90 to $14.80, made a rounding bottom, then started climbing after Comex closed.

Gold Price
On the right the weekly gold price chart since 2013. Carefully mark that this week gold broke upwards through the downtrend line from the October 2012 high and poked its head way above the 50 week MA ($1,142.35). Weekly chart breakout confirms the daily chart breakout. Monthly does not yet show it, but that comes next.
Gold Price Daily

On silver's weekly chart there's a big bullish falling wedge, and silver barely peeked through the downtrend line this week. Didn't make it through the 50 Week MA. Chart on the left.

Silver Price Daily
Okay, silver and gold prices have turned up against stocks (Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver have turned down) and they have broken through the downtrend line from the Oct 2012 high on the daily chart, and gold has broken through on the daily. Here's gold's daily chart on the right, and silver's on the left, reaching for that 200 DMA,

Gold Price Possibility
What's next? Here is one possibility, and only a possibility. First look at the chart on the right, Between July and October gold traced what looks like a left shoulder of an upside-down head and shoulder pattern. Then it fell back to sketch out a big head with the bottom in December. Now it is outlining the right side of that head up to some Neckline, maybe about $1,175. From there it might back off and paint a right shoulder, backing up to $1,140, $1,125, or even $1,090. After terrorizing and shaking off as many gold buyers as possible, the bull would then turn up and rally through that neckline, never to return.

OR, when it reaches $1,190, it might just punch clean through and never look back.

I can't make up my mind which, but either way the silver and gold price bottomed back in December.

Stocks continue to spring bad surprises and unexpected disappointments. So far their way has been blocked at 16,600 and 1,950, as some fool guessed. Dow fell from the opening, down, down, down, then down some more. Ended 211.61 (1.29%) lower at 16,204.97. S&P500 ended 35.4 (1.85%) cheaper at 1,880.05. It begins to appear that stocks lack sufficient gumption even to mount a convincing countertrend rally. Y'all ought to be selling stocks and buying silver and gold with the proceeds.

Dow in Gold
More instructive still are the Dow in Gold and Dow in Silver, for there we discern the great Wheels of the Universe creaking as they turn the primary trend, down for stocks and up for metals. Dow in Gold ended today (NOT based on Comex close) at 13.80 oz (G$285.27 gold dollars) which punches through support from February 2015 for the lowest close since August. More, it lodged a scant 3/10 ounce from 13.50 oz, which marks the uptrend line from the September 2011 low. Read that again, y'all, so you don't miss it or its significance. It's the last barrier for the Dow in Gold to prove it really did turn down in December. Behold the chart:

Dow in Silver
Dow in silver dropped 25.83 ounces today to end at 1,078.17. If it drops 24 more ounces, it will smash at 1,054 oz the uptrend line from the 2011 low. Do y'all understand this means the END of the bear market in silver and gold, and the end of the bull market in stocks?

US dollar index dead-cat-bounced 52 basis points (0.54%) to 97.01, just above the 200 DMA at 96.89. Looks broke as a stopped government clock to me. Closes below 96 confirm brokenness, below 95.5 plumb-brokenness, below 92.50 slap-out-brokenness.

Euro shot up Wednesday, gapped up yesterday, and backed off today 0.38% to $1.116.0 Above the 200 DMA and all others, so rallying. Might reach $1.1500. Yen must be chafing the Japanese Nice Government Men something fierce. They thought they'd fixed it good, driving it down with the surprise Negative interest rate announcement, but the dollar's dive this week sent it shooting up to HIGHER prices than before their manipulation. Today lost 0.03% to 85.58.

Please accept my heartfelt thanks for your continuing prayers for Susan's eye. It is healing slowly but she is still suffering much pain.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Thursday, February 04, 2016

All Systems are Go for Silver and Gold Prices

4-Feb-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,157.6016.301.43%
Silver Price, $/oz14.840.120.79%
Gold/Silver Ratio78.0260.4920.64%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0128-0.0001-0.63%
Platinum Price904.4025.602.91%
Palladium Price516.850.000.00%
S&P 5001,915.452.920.15%
Dow16,416.5879.920.49%
Dow in GOLD $s293.16-2.74-0.93%
Dow in GOLD oz14.18-0.13-0.93%
Dow in SILVER oz1,106.54-3.29-0.30%
US Dollar Index96.56-0.74-0.76%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
At Comex close the SILVER PRICE had added 11.6¢ (0.8%) to $14.836. The GOLD PRICE gobbled up $16.30 (1.4%) for a $1,157.60 close.

Markets are very jumpy, all of 'em. At 10 a.m. Eastern time the gold price gapped from $1,150 to $1,155, a gap I find no explanation for. Gapped again from $1,155 to $1,157 about 2:45. Silver gapped, too, but not as strongly. First jumped from $14.85 to $14.90, second from $14.88 to $14.90. Nervous, very nervous.

Gold Price
The GOLD PRICE appears headed for $1,192, the last (October) high. That's a first and minimum target. I'm reining myself in, not getting too excited because I expect lots of up and down this year as silver and gold prices build a base for the next big advance. The price of gold still needs to cross $1,162, three percent above the $1,128 breakout, for proof. Passing that old $1,192 high will sooth my nerves, too, because the gold price has punched through its 200 DMA before, several times in the last twelve months, without following through. Here's an 11-month chart, strong lately as a garlic milkshake.

Silver Price
Silver ain't nearly as pert and lively as gold, and that sits as a burr under my saddle. Also, volume for silver and gold dropped way, way off today. Need more buyers to fuel a rally. Gold has pierced its 200 DMA, now silver needs to follow suit and push through $15.13. High today was $14.95, fifteen cents away.

Platinum
Platinum and palladium are confirming silver and gold's rise. Platinum's 8-month chart on the right, boasts a bullish falling wedge that began in July. Platinum broke out upside in January, touched back to the breakout point (upper wedge boundary), then soared. Today it rose another $25.60 to $904.40, over $900 again. Has added over $50 in last 2 days.

Palladium
Palladium's chart isn't as juicy, It also shows a falling wedge with a bare minimal breakout. Palladium needs to confirm by moving from today's $516.80 close above its 50 DMA at $527.

Other inflation markets are also rising. WTIC oil rose nearly 2% to $33.38, but needs to cross $34.82 to prove a reversal, even short term. Copper rose 1.525 to $1.23, and has climbed back into the channel it fell from in January. Also completing a widening wedge that usually resolves skyward.

All systems are go for silver and gold prices, I am just watching on the porch, looking for more rally confirmations.

US Dollar
Most eye-catching about that big US dollar index drop yesterday is that no special trigger set it off, only several minor news events that took it to the channel boundary and then through and for a panic dive. Likely triggered by spreading realization the Fed can't raise interest rates with every other major central bank going negative -- in spite of Fed jawboning to the contrary. If the Fed continues raising rates now, they will dislocate every joint in the US economy.

Dollar index kept on cascading today, tumbling another 74 basis points (0.76%) over the rocks to 96.56. That teaseth the 96.50 support/resistance, plus plunges the Dollar Index below its 200 day moving average, and not by a little: 200 now stands at 96.90. Second day of decline implies the Nice Government Men are holding back, i.e., this may be a deliberate move by the Fed.

A falling dollar is, of course, the best fuel for a gold and silver rally, so this nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee is not complaining.

Thanks to all y'all who prayed for Susan. She has improved today but her eye is still hurting. For Miss High Pain Tolerance to say that, it must be smarting, but she is some kind of brave. Thanks in advance for continuing to pray for her.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.



Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Silver and Gold Price Break Out

3-Feb-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,141.3014.001.24%
Silver Price, $/oz14.720.443.11%
Gold/Silver Ratio77.534-1.431-1.81%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01290.00021.85%
Platinum Price878.8024.402.86%
Palladium Price516.8526.255.35%
S&P 5001,912.539.500.50%
Dow16,336.66183.121.13%
Dow in GOLD $s295.90-0.32-0.11%
Dow in GOLD oz14.31-0.02-0.11%
Dow in SILVER oz1,109.83-21.69-1.92%
US Dollar Index97.24-1.63-1.65%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
On Comex the SILVER PRICE rose 44.4¢ to $14.72, up 3.1%. The GOLD PRICE rose $14.00 or 1.2% to $1,141.30.

These breakouts smash my breakout requirements, $14.65 and $1,128-$1,132. Strong and vigorous, they confirm each other. More, platinum rose 2.9% and palladium 5.4%. The GOLD PRICE has risen through its 200 DMA for the first time since October, and on rising volume. Silver's volume EXPLODED, from 30,250 contracts yesterday to 62,071 today.

Gold Price
Silver Price
Yet carp I still. Been fooled too many times. I want to see at least a 3% confirmation of these breakouts, that is, gold price over $1,128 + 3% or $1,162 and silver over $15.09. Call it $15.13, cause that's where the 200 DMA presently resideth.

Here are the charts, and they are stunning:

For a metals rally the GOLD/SILVER RATIO needs to fall as well. Today it hit the bottom boundary of the rising trading channel that has entrapped it since October. Closed today below its 20 AND 50 DMA. Appears ready to drop out of the channel. A close below 76.50 tomorrow will clinch that.

This is exactly the sort of breakout move in metals that I've been looking for. BIG doin's. Gotta buy breakouts.

MEDITATION: If all the world's central banks take interest rates negative, how could the Fed possibly stand against that tide? Leaving US rates positive would suck in all the capital in the world into the dollar. Why did Bloomberg report yesterday that the Fed announced it will assess the resilience of big banks to, among other conditions, negative interest rates (rate on 3 mo. Treasury bill below zero for a prolonged period). Are they merely satisfying their idle curiosity? Remember, negative rates remove the great objection to holding silver and gold, namely, they pay no interest. Under negative rates investors would have to PAY to hold bank deposits or government bonds, while holding metals would cost nothing and offer potential price rise.

US Dollar
I wrote the above early this morning, before the dollar's foretold weakness erupted like a boil. Dollar fell 163 basis points (1.65%) to 97.24. During the day it fell clean through all possible support and below the December low (97.21), hit the 200 day moving average (96.91), but recovered slightly to 97.24. Dollar index is as broken as it gets, with paired waterfalls in December and February. Twas a huge move, and locks earthward momentum and all indicators.

Dollar's drop set off a universal re-pricing for commodities and bonds. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $4.15 (14%) to $33.86, not quite enough for a reversal but way above the 20 DMA. Close above $34.82 confirms at least a short term rally.

10 year treasury note yield dipped to new low territory, hitting the uptrend line from the July 2012 low, and reversed to close at 1.881, up 0.91% and first half of a key reversal upwards. Copper jumped 2.39% to $2.10.

Not the least of the re-pricing happened in currencies. Euro vaulted 1.76% to $1.1110, above the $1.1052 200 day moving average for the first time since October. Now has painted a believable breakout from even-sided triangle. Oh, and the yen! Japanese Nice Government Men must be throwing hissy fits. After they thought they fixed the Yen/$ exchange rate last week, it gapped up today and closed up 1.83% at 84.91, not far from the January intraday high at 86.06. Saved its rally.

Stocks wavered, scratched their heads, and then decided to rise. Dow climbed 183.12 (1.13%) to 16,336.66, back above the 20 DMA. But performance across indices oddly contradicted itself. S&P500 rose not 1.13% but only 0.5% or 9.5 to 1,912.53. Small cap Russell 2000 rose 0.14%, and the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 fell, 0.28% and 0.5%. That don't smell good, but at day's end the Big Two closed higher.

Dear Friends, my wife Susan is suffering a lot of pain from her eye. Doctor today had to cut a stitch from her eye and scratched the eye doing it. She is clean worn out fighting pain. Would y'all please continue to pray for her?

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2016, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.