Friday, December 29, 2006

Silver Price to Test $24 and Gold Price To Challenge $900-$1000 by End of May 2007

It now appears that the SILVER PRICE and GOLD PRICE bottomed in the days before Christmas. They have left me somewhat trepidatious about one more leg down, but for now I have to stick with only one interpretation: they are headed up.

In 2007 look for the silver price to rally through 1500 and then test 2400 by end-May. In the same time the gold price will challenge $900, perhaps even $1000. If you have been waiting to buy, stop waiting and buy. Get US 90% silver coin in silver and the cheaper bullion coins in gold (Krugerrands, Austrian 100 coronas, Mex 50 pesos, sovereigns, 20 francs).

Most likely the US Dollar will have a tough time this year. To give you the broad limits of the picture, the Dollar Index at 80 stands upon 35 year support. When it breaks that the central banks will manage its fall all the way to 60, which I believe is the target the US Treasury and Federal Reserve are aiming at ultimately. But before that happens it could rally to 87.30. If the dollar climbs over that, then more trouble awaits at 92. Frankly, I don't expect to see that soon, since it should hit 80.50 before any real rise begins.

Get out of all US Dollar denominated assets, while people will still buy them.

For the week stocks (Dow & S&P500) and gold and silver rose, while the Bernanke-ridden dollar stumbled. Stocks keep playing the same game with investors: one big day with 100 point gains, then three days while it bleeds back the whole gain. The Bear is a sadist, and likes to torment his victims before he mauls them. Stocks may replay this pattern a couple of more times, and might rise as high as 12,640. Be warned, however, that this is a Bull Trap, and those caught in it will wail with woe when it begins to wobble, then whooshes downward in 2007's first quarter. Best to lock in your capital by swapping stocks for silver & gold.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Silver and Gold Prices Appear to Have Posted Double Bottoms on December 18 and 21

Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES appear to have posted double bottoms on December 18 and 21. Sure, they could violate those bottoms (1235.8 for silver and 614 for gold) and go lower, but for now the upward trend rules and I am not looking for lower lows (except over my shoulder, as always). Yesterday silver rose 20 cents (1.6%) while gold rose 3.50 (0.6%), but today silver stood nearly still with a 1.50 cent rise against gold's 6.60 jump.

Where does this leave us? Silver refused to break at the 1250 level, has climbed to resistance/support at 1280, and must clear that hurdle and then 1300. Gold held where I expected (612/613) then touched back to 618. Yesterday it cleared 626, now today gold is nestled just under strong resistance/support at 634.10. I didn't appreciate silver's piddling today, and gold is entering stiff resistance all the way to 650; that's the bad news. The good news is that those double bottoms and smart moves up could mean that bottoms have been posted, but both silver & gold must keep on moving up to confirm the trend. Silver needs to close above 1406 and gold above 650 for solid confirmation. Ahh, then the fun will begin.

If you have been waiting to buy silver and gold, stop waiting and move.

STOCKS hit a new high at 12,510.67 yesterday, which loosed a cacophony of crowing amongst the Wall Street touts. Please bear in mind that I said a number of months ago that y'all should expect to see this before stocks' rally collapsed, and it has not taken silver & gold by surprise, nor rendered stocks a better investment that silver and gold, even though silver & gold have been undergoing a 6 month correction while stocks held a rally.

The truth becomes clear by glancing at the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS or the DOW IN SILVER OUNCES. The new Dow paper dollar high didn't even reach significant resistance in terms of gold, and was MILES from making a new high. The high came in 8/1999 at G$922.45 (about 45 ounces) versus Wednesday's G$412.34 (19.95 ounces). Not even close. Nor were stocks close to a new high against silver. The all time high came in June 2001 at 2,566 oz. versus Wednesday's 981. Stocks have lost 62% against silver, and there's more to lose where that came from. Wherefore you ought to seek to look at the inward heart, and not the outward show.

The US DOLLAR, which had a chance to mount a rally, failed above 84 and now has locked itself again sideways below 84. Lo, how are the mighty fallen! Not a pretty sight, & despite possible rallies to come, it won't get prettier.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Friday, December 22, 2006

Buy Everything if Silver Hits 1210

We may have seen the lows for the SILVER and GOLD PRICE yesterday. If not, expect them to show up next week. I would buy everything I was going to buy if silver hits 1210, and buy both silver and gold at that level. The holiday will not necessarily leave silver & gold sleepy next week, so keep your eyes peeled.


The numbers (so the proverb goes) tell the tale. Don't argue with the tape. The numbers at the end of a week tell a tale, too, but this particular Friday we have to remember a grain of salt, since so many traders pull out of the market for the holiday season.

STOCKS took thumps on the face again today, and closed down 102 points for the week, having now given up all the ground they gained when they broke out over 12,350 resistance. This same back and forth will probably carry into January, perhaps beyond, burning up investor's buying power until it's all gone, then resumes its downward career. Note that the Dow in Gold Dollars dropped from last Friday's close at the top of the resistance range. A subscriber pointed out to me today that the Dow is not as representative as the Wilshire 5000 index, which includes not 30 but nearly 5000 stocks. Good point, so I converted the Wilshire 5000 from paper to silver and gold. Even though the Wilshire (like the Dow) is lately making new highs, its performance against silver & gold is even more dismal than the Dow's. The lesson? Swap stocks for silver and gold. It's the right thing to do.

Watch the GOLD/SILVER RATIO for a jump to 52. If that happens, swap any remaining gold for silver.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

SILVER and GOLD PRICES Will See Their Lows Tomorrow or Early Next Week

Today's weaker closes, especially silver's, lead me to expect follow through. My friend BL brought to my attention today the convergence of a 62% correction & the 200 day moving average at 1207 in silver. That sounds like a very good number to me. I believe SILVER and GOLD PRICES will see their lows tomorrow or early next week. Do not postpone buying.

Gold/Silver ratio has almost reached 50:1. the 200 day moving average is about 52, and the ratio often touches back to that 200 DMA. If you want to swap gold for silver, do it at 51.50 or better.

The US DOLLAR (poor thing!) is rallying its strength & taking deep breaths for another run at 84.30. Will it make it? I don't know -- it's pretty wheezy.

STOCKS are showing the effects of the season. Traders like to close out positions before holidays. Thinking about stocks, I'm still looking for a high between 12,650 and 13,000. The Dow is beginning to look very toppy. Next year will be the Year That Broke The Bulls. Don't be one of them: swap stocks now for silver and gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Gold Price Fall may have Ended Yesterday

I hold back from saying that GOLD and SILVER PRICES have done all their falling because they have only been falling for three days. Yet the decline has been short & sharp, and the Christmas holiday looms. Silver has dropped below its 50 DMA (12.84) and yesterday bounced off support that runs from 1200 to 1235. If it falls further the 200 DMA stands at 1205 to catch it. Yes, silver recovered somewhat today, but not above significant resistance/support. If you intend to buy silver on this reaction, your time is running out. Tarry not, neither wait forever.

Yesterday may have been the end of gold's fall when it hit that 612 area, which is crowded not only by support but also by the 50 and 200 day moving averages. From today's reaction, there are plenty of enthusiastic buyers at the 200 DMA. Also the bottom rising trend line seems to cross about 610. What I would like to see for both metals is a touch back tomorrow to 610 and 1235, turning around into a higher close. On the other hand, a close below those points would signal lower prices coming.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO has climbed above the 50 DMA (48.65) but not reached the 200 DMA at 51.38. That last is the maximum point I expect to see. If perchance anyone was waiting to swap gold for silver, better do it now. No more chances.

The US DOLLAR INDEX took a 55 basis point hit today, but now looks as if it has set off on a rally of sorts, with this qualifying as the first correction. It will next have to better 84.40 to maintain an uptrend, so watch for that. A fall below 83 would indicate a change of direction to the downside.

STOCKS are toying with investors, refusing to make any more progress on their breakout over 12,350. I still expect this rally to top out by 12,750 or 13,000 at most. Looking at the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS we find that yesterday it peaked at that G$417 - 418 (20.22 oz) resistance and then dropped today to G$414.61. Stocks still are failing to perform strongly against gold, leading to the obvious conclusion: swap stocks for silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Friday, December 15, 2006

This is Precisely the Time You Should be Buying Gold at 612 and Silver at 1280 Down.

Take a deep breath, calm yourself, and let's think about markets. Whooo, that's better. Today held enough excitement to suit anybody.

SILVER & GOLD PRICES slipped today, just in time to make good my forecast from last week when I wrote, "I suspect the correction will be very sharp & short, probably by next week and over by Christmas, or, at the latest, mid-January." Silver plunged nearly a dollar today (96.2 cents) and gold fell 11.60. Both metals are now lodged near my first targets for the correction. Next week should see a couple of follow through days which will set all the Gurus (remember, the inflation geniuses above?) to talking about the end of silver and gold. Ignore these nincompoops. This is precisely the time you should be buying gold and silver. Watch this market like a hawk, and jump on gold around 612 (roughly today's price) and silver from 1280 down. The market has handed you an opportunity. Seize it!

STOCKS (measured by the Dow) closed at an all time high today of 12,445.52. For some time I have been warning that new highs were probably, and once the Dow broke 12,350 resistance, it set a target for 12,640. This falls within my long term range of 12,500 to 13,000. I still expect to see stocks begin to drop sharply in January. No new high can seduce me into stocks, because they remain in a long term bear market. Silver and gold will continue to outperform stocks for another 10 years or so, and therefore I would seize this opportunity to swap stocks for silver & gold. Here's the joke for the day: Guru-dom is attributing stocks' rise today to "cooling inflation." My word! How do these people land & keep jobs? Next week it will be "increasing trade with the Planet ZarKon" that they cite as the reason for stocks to rise. Is anybody left on planet Earth with a functioning brain? Beam me up, Scotty!

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS turned sharply up today and closed just above the G$417 (20.17 oz) resistance which had so often turned it back in the past. This changes the coloration of the previous trading since the bottom, and opens the possibility that the DiG$ will not stop at its previous high of G$435.90, but still make that fabled halfway mark of its fall from the August 1999 peak, namely, G$475 (22.98 oz). Regardless how high it reaches, it has turned up by (1) trading through the uptrend line it had earlier fallen thru, and (2) closing above its 50 day moving average (DMA).

The flabby US dollar got tired of the Euro kicking sand in its face this week and has been bounding upward 33 basis points a day. I underestimated the buck. Expect this rally to carry to 85 or 85.50, floating on a sea of good feeling as Christmas draws close. Remember, however, that in January the bills will have to be paid, and the buck will tumble again. It's a stinker. Get shut of it.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Silver and Gold Prices are Beginning to Look a Little Tired

SILVER & GOLD PRICES are beginning to look a little tired. We don't have very many trading days left until Christmas, so I expect we will see lower prices between now and then. Expect all markets to go dead around 20 - 21 December as traders pull out for the holiday. Tough timing that, because all you silver & gold investors ought to be watching the market like starving children watching a baker's window. If metals drop, it will be sharp and short, and give you very little chance to buy. Keep your eyes peeled!

A break of 1363 (17 day moving average) in silver would signal lower prices coming immediately.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO continues to drop, but if metals drop lower, that ratio will make its first upward correction of this move, probably to 48.

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke out to a new high, and is targetting roughly 12,640. This breakout shouldn't have taken y'all by surprise since I've been hinting at it for quite a while, and it shouldn't have filled you with "irrational exuberance," either. This breakout does NOT (repeat, not) change my outlook for stocks. This is a trap for bulls, so don't get caught in it. Rather, you ought to be turning high stock prices to your own advantage by swapping stocks for silver and gold.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS broke down from its uptrend, and now has turned back up, to touchback before dropping lower, I suppose (until contradicted). Both the trendline and the 50 day moving average stand about G$410 (19.83 troy ounces). The DIGS is suggesting here that gold is about to gain value against stocks, but that issue is hanging in the balance, waiting on the next few days' action. Remember & ponder that gold can gain value against stocks" also while stocks are rising, if gold rises faster.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

SILVER & GOLD PRICES are Beginning to Look a Little Tired

SILVER & GOLD PRICES are beginning to look a little tired. We don't have very many trading days left until Christmas, so I expect we will see lower prices between now and then. Expect all markets to go dead around 20 - 21 December as traders pull out for the holiday. Tough timing that, because all you silver & gold investors ought to be watching the market like starving children watching a baker's window. If metals drop, it will be sharp and short, and give you very little chance to buy. Keep your eyes peeled!

A break of 1363 (17 day moving average) in silver would signal lower prices coming immediately.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO continues to drop, but if metals drop lower, that ratio will make its first upward correction of this move, probably to 48.

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke out to a new high, and is targetting roughly 12,640. This breakout shouldn't have taken y'all by surprise since I've been hinting at it for quite a while, and it shouldn't have filled you with "irrational exuberance," either. This breakout does NOT (repeat, not) change my outlook for stocks. This is a trap for bulls, so don't get caught in it. Rather, you ought to be turning high stock prices to your own advantage by swapping stocks for silver and gold.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS broke down from its uptrend, and now has turned back up, to touchback before dropping lower, I suppose (until contradicted). Both the trendline and the 50 day moving average stand about G$410 (19.83 troy ounces). The DIGS is suggesting here that gold is about to gain value against stocks, but that issue is hanging in the balance, waiting on the next few days' action. Remember & ponder that gold can gain value against stocks" also while stocks are rising, if gold rises faster.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Every Decline in Gold and Silver Meets Fresh Buying that Buoys their Prices

This thing isn't really unfolding quite as I expected.

The SILVER & GOLD PRICES aren't unfolding as I expected, or perhaps more accurately, as I might like. I really would prefer that they drop suddenly & hard, which would make the next rally that much stronger. Rather, every decline meets fresh buying that buoys their prices. It begins to appear that the decline will be milder than I expected, but then, we haven't reached any really scary downside numbers yet, the kind of numbers that send investors grabbing for their wastebaskets for a quick puke. That's the sort of decline that really cleans out the market and readies it for the next upmove. I can only caution patience here.

The flabby US DOLLAR INDEX fell 37 basis points to close at 83.18. Long as it remains above 83 I suppose it might continue rising, but down is the line of least resistance. Long term, the buck is a drug on the market and will take you down with it unless you shun it now.

STOCKS are still floating along the ceiling at 12,350. The more times a market challenges resistance (or support), the more likely it is to break through. I expect the stock market in some holiday mood (dare I say "spirits"?) to break that barrier & race upward another 100 - 300 points to create the perfect trap for bulls at the very top. Since the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (the Dow's measure against gold)remains below resistance around G$417, let alone challenging any important breakout point, I am confident that silver & gold will continue out-pacing stocks and can confidently recommend you swap stocks for silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Friday, December 08, 2006

Very Sharp Short Correction for the Gold Price

I judged SILVER & GOLD PRICES wrongly. I thought the breakout had come for gold, (still think it has for silver) but it faltered & stumbled at US$650. How far might this correction take gold? Next week the 625 resistance ought to be breached, then the next strong support lies at 610 - 610. If that doesn't hold, gold could drop as low as 575, the very bottom of the triangle's bottom boundary. I would buy on any retreat to 615, and then more on any dip under 600. I suspect the correction will be very sharp & short, probably next week, and over by Christmas or, at the latest, mid January. Look for both gold and silver to come roaring back
once the correction is complete.

The SILVER PRICE has been so wiry and so strong that I have a hard time judging where a correction might take it. To really scare everybody off the bull, probably a decline to 1185 is necessary. But strong buyers are clustered around 1350. Silver could drop to the last high at 1328, or next support at 1250, or even 1200. I would simply buy at those points on the way down. A close over 1410 indicates, on the other hand, a breakout.

The markets are holding out to you gifts -- seize them!

STOCKS are moving sideways, failing to pierce 12,350. The rally could last well into next year's first quarter, but whether it stops sooner or later, the end will be the same: a long plunge into the bear market. Before then prices may reach 12,500, 12,700, or 13,000, but any of those prices are meaningless to the ultimate outcome.

Swap stocks now for silver & gold, while the market is offering you a great gift.

The US DOLLAR INDEX hit a low at 82.35, then decided to rally. Trust it not, neither rely thereon. It will hit 80.50 or 81 before it hits 85. The dollar is a dog, destined to drop another 25% within the next 12 - 24 months. Oh, yes, the Nice Government Men in the central banks will manage the devaluation so that nobody panics, but lower it's going. (Remember, the NGM are the same folks who brought you Waco, Vietnam, & Iraq!)




Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Gold Still has More Work to do Downside.

Y'all didn't think you were going to see that today, did you? Gold and silver popped up nicely, refusing to give in.

The GOLD PRICE tested the bottom of support with a low at 624.50, then climbed steadily to close at the top of today's range, 631.90. Strong, but I suspect gold still has more work to do downside. I'm still looking at both the 50 & 200 DMAs around 613 to act as a backstop.

The SILVER PRICE fell to 1346 where it double-bottomed, then bounced madly to close up 24.6 cents on the day at 1386.1. So far that 1350 area has held, but this slide isn't finished yet. The 50 DMA and the bottom Bollinger band are nested at 1247 and 1242, while 1250 is support anyway. Silver ought to make some stand there, and below that is the 200 DMA at 1191.

For the sake of the comeback from this correction and the ensuing rally, I'd prefer silver had been weaker today, but it wasn't. Somebody figured he'd missed a bargain at 1350 and bought today.

'Tis worth noting that the Gold/Silver ratio is still dropping, dropping, and is now down to 45.43. As the correction picks up speed this ratio ought to rise, but so far it hasn't.

On a five day chart stocks have just rolled over to point down. On Tuesday and Wednesday they floated beneath 12,350, made a stab at it today (high 12,360), then just faded. There are several more days of downside coming before another attack on 12,350.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Gold Could Decline to 612 or Could sink as Low as 575

When you're wrong. I think it's best to go ahead & admit it as soon as possible, and take your licks. I've been wrong. I thought that gold and silver had completed their last plunge down, and I was wrong. That seems to be happening now. Here is the outlook.

The SILVER PRICE could stop anywhere: at the last top (1328), and the gap left on the way up (1305-1310), at strong support at 1250 or 1185. Even lower is possible, 1050. The 200 day moving average stands at 1187, the 50 DMA at 12.38, & those are also candidates to contain the plunge. Either silver will drop very sharply, very fast, bottoming by mid December, or the decline will last into mid to late January. The short, fast outcome is the one I prefer, since it will be followed by a longer, stronger rally, having shaken off all the weak investors. Those left will be the utterly convinced bulls.

GOLD and SILVER PRICES remain out of synchrony, although both have been rising and now both are falling. Their charts show different stages of development, silver having broken out upside and gold still trying to break out of a triangle.

Gold could decline to 612, where the 50 & 200 DMAs both stand right now and where support stands at 610, or it could sink as low as 575. Gold should complete this downward move by mid December or early January, followed by a long, hard rally that should carry about 300 points, to US$900 or higher. (As silver rockets out of this bottom it will crash through 1500 and perhaps challenge 2400 by May.)

I acted too early. The charts fooled me into thinking that the breakout had already begun, but gold's stumbling below 650 (non-confirming silver's rise through 1400) should have warned me, along with the still high discount on US 90% silver bags. If my current interpretation is correct, that premium ought to shrink in the next few days, or at least when we hit a bottom. I'll be looking for it.

The proximate cause of today's fall was a dead-cat rally in the US DOLLAR, which I should also have been watching more closely for, given its long fall and obviously oversold state. Don't expect this dollar rally to last long, or carry beyond 83.50.

STOCKS proved themselves weak again near 12,350, failing today at 12,335 and closing slightly lower on the day. As I said yesterday, stocks will probably make marginal new highs in the next 8 weeks or so, but then will fall hard. Say, by the way -- this drop in silver and gold makes for y'all an even better opportunity to swap stocks for silver & gold!

Today's gold tumble sent the Dow in Gold Dollars up about a half an ounce to close at G$403.59 (19.52 oz), still way below any meaningful resistance.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

Silver Price Needs to Hold 1325 and Gold Price 637.5

SILVER & GOLD PRICES both backed off today. Obviously a lot of people get nosebleeds around 650 gold & 1400 silver, so they conclude it's too high and sell it. Might as well try to hoe out Bermuda grass with a teaspoon, because these metals are rising. This only means that the eventual breakout will be the more fierce for having been held back. All the 650 & 1400 sellers will be exhausted so there will be no opposition to hold them back. The silver price needs to hold above 1325 and gold above 637.50.

The Dow today rose nearly to its all-time high, and is threatening to break through 12,350. If it does, it could easily add another 350 points, but I still don't want to own it. Swap stocks for silver and gold, now, while the market is handing you a soft ball opportunity & before stocks tank, and they will sometime early next year.
Dow in Gold Dollars rose slightly today, but remains in a downtrend. Stocks present no threat to gold there.

US DOLLAR INDEX flat today. I don't see how it can help falling to 80.50, but won't necessarily do that all at a single fall. Will rally slightly, lift head & look around, before sinking again.



Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Monday, December 04, 2006

Once the Gold Price Breaks 650 the Bears will Turn and Flee to their Dens

Both SILVER AND GOLD PRICES survived their touch back to support & have continued to advance. O, but why don't they climb faster? Why hasn't the gold price climbed through 650 yet? What's holding it back? A bull market climbs a wall of worry. Remember that. There are always reasons to doubt the validity of a rallying bull, but he keeps right on rising anyway. Listen, the correction lasted from May to November, and that was long enough. Both silver and gold prices are due and overdue to rally. Once the gold price breaks 650 the bears will turn and flee to their dens. The silver price has crossed 1400 and won't be held back.

You don't stand in the path of a market like this, you get long and then get longer. As long as the silver price holds 1325 and the gold price holds 637, the metals will continue rising. The silver price will hang up trying to pierce 1500 resistance, probably bounce off that spot, then pierce it on the next try. The gold price will mimic that performance at 720, but higher prices are coming for both.

The biggest story since I last commented Tuesday a week ago is the US DOLLAR INDEX's slide into oblivion. On 28 Nov. the buck was at 83.13, and today closed 70 basis points lower at 82.42, well on its way to my 80.50 target for this move. I have bled and pled since the dollar started this slide at 120 for y'all to get out of US dollar denominated assets. The dollar is destined for 60.

Stocks bounced back but are still trapped below 12,350 resistance. It's hard to explain this without sounding like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth, but you do NOT want to own stocks, even though they may go higher, even 200 - 500 points higher (on the Dow), in the next couple of months. Why? Because they will come down hard, and keep coming down for years. Also, they will lose value against silver and gold for at least another 10 years. Therefore, you still ought to swap stocks for silver & gold.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (measuring stocks' performance against gold) is dropping lower and lower. Now it is hovering over its 200 DMA, and when it breaks that, look out below.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Monday, November 27, 2006

Gold and Silver Prices Break Out

I'm going to start out this commentary with a lecture: in a bull market, get long, and then get longer. Sure, it's fun to scope out markets and forecast them with technical analysis, but in a primary uptrend the proper course is to buy, then buy more, and then buy more again. Don't let the phantasm of price dips become the enemy of real profits. Application: silver and gold are in a primary uptrend that will last another 10 years or so, a bull market. Get long, and then get longer.

The breakouts in SILVER AND GOLD PRICES, confirmed by both rising above their September highs (1306 & 638.50) and holding those levels two days, looks real. Nor can it be written off to "dollar weakness" as light-weight minds are wont to do. Silver & gold were already rising against other currencies before the dollar broke. This appears to be the breakout I have been looking for since the correction began last May. Further confirmation is needed tomorrow by silver and gold rising still further. At some point, probably from much higher levels, the breakout will play "touchback" toward the point at which it broke out, most likely around these very prices we see today.

STOCKS were beaten today with an iron bar and left for dead. The Dow fell 158.46 points, but the S&P fell harder, roughly the equivalent of 198 points on the Dow. Now the lines are drawn and we can see that Mr. Bear didn't want the rally to get over 12,330. This may not be, indeed, probably is not, the last we'll see of prices at these nosebleed levels. That may continue into 1st quarter of next year, but maybe not. Stocks usually rise into the end of the year -- 'twould be a perfect turnaround to fool the greatest number if Mr. Bear just pulled the bottom out as a Christmas present
for his victims.

The Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) today extended its down- trend and confirmed it with a lower low at G$391.10 (18.92 oz), a decisive break through the longer term uptrend line, and a close below the 50 day moving average (DMA) (G$412.39), the 17 DMA (G$402.65), and nearing the 200 DMA (G$388.11). Closing through the 200 DMA will sink the DiG .

The US Dollar Index dropped 105 points from Wednesday to Monday (that's what I've show below), to close at the very bottom of its range and below. It closed below the May 2006 low, and below the point where this rally began in May 2005. It the Nice Government Men can't catch it here, twill drop back to the Dec. 2005 low at 80.50. The dollar's long term trajectory points to 60 (yes, sixty) but since 80 forms the bottom of a 35 year trading range, you can expect bounces from there. The NGM will be engineering the fall below 80 in stepwise fashion.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Saturday, November 18, 2006

Gold and Silver Will Come Roaring Back Off The Dips

Today the metal's reversed roles and gold seemed a tiny bit stronger than silver, closing up a magnificent 90 cents versus dropping 14.3 cents. On the chart gold shows support resistance at 622 and at 622 and 614. A close below 614 would take it lower, probably to 602. Gold needs to close over 626, and then 632 in short order to turn up. Silver has fought off every attempt to break it to 1250, but is tied in below 1280. I felt bleak until I looked at the past 5 days' charts. Both gold and silver might have bottomed this week. If not, the bottom should occur by the end of next week.

Y'all should buy on ANY dips, because silver & gold will come roaring up off these prices and never look back. Watch closely & alertly next week.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO is preparing to drop heavily. I anticipate our next silver to gold swaps will occur below 35:1. We can afford to be patient.

Give the devil his due: stocks are strong. The S&P500, though far from its all-time closing high of 1527 (March, 2000), managed to close above 1,400 today, a psychological milestone. Stocks can keep rolling into the first or second quarter of next year. So why do I continuously advise y'all to swap stocks for silver & gold? Because metals even now are about to pull out of their six month correction and knock on and exceed their last highs at 1500 and 719. Meanwhile you are seeing the last of the last rose of summer on stocks, which remain in a primary bear (down) trend.

Which had you rather hold over the long run? Since 1999 and 2001 stocks have lost 55% against gold and 63% against silver. Which do you want to hold, stocks or silver & gold? Stocks are making a blowoff top that's liable to go anywhere, but 12,500 and 12,750 are nice numbers.

The Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$), which measures stocks' performance in terms of gold dollars (0.048375 troy ounce), rose today. It appears to have double bottomed below G$400.00 (19.35 oz.) last week. Can it pierce resistance at G$415-17, G$425, & G$433? I don't know. If it does, it will stop around G$475 (22.98), the half way mark of the previous (1980 - 2000) rise to G$922.45 (44.62 oz.)

The US DOLLAR INDEX isn't telling us anything. It is hovering between 85.3 - 85.5, moving point-lets every day & marking out no path. A close below 85 would send it dropping like your car keys out of a bass boat. It must close above 87.3 to break out to the upside.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Friday, November 17, 2006

Probably About To See The Last Dip Down In Gold and Silver

SILVER AND GOLD PRICES closed lower today, at 620.6 & 1292.2. That isn't bad, but they have fallen off in the aftermarket to 617.9 and 1278, below critical support at 618 and 1280. Probably we are about to see that last (last) dip down. Likely stopping points are 610, 602, 600 and 1250, 1225, and 1200. If metals are going to break, break, y'all will probably see that begin tomorrow. On the other hand, a strong performance tomorrow would probably mark the beginning of the long-awaited rally.

The Dow in gold dollars rose to G$411.69 (19.92 oz), close to the G$415 - G$417 resistance area. A break through that carries it to G$425 (20.56 oz) or even G$433 (20.95 oz.). Lo, what meaneth this tumult? Not much. Long term primary bull (up) trend for silver and gold is firmly intact & long term primary bear (down) trend for stocks. This is your chance to buy silver and gold on the cheap. If y'all miss it, don't say I didn't warn y'all.

Whoo-ey! The Dow Jones Industrial Average gapped up on Tuesday, strong as a garlic milkshake. This will continue until it ends, but 'twill continue without me. November & December are usually good months for stocks, so we can expect this to keep churning into next year and pile up 500 or more points. Great ride, but I'd rather swap stocks for silver & gold, because heartbreak doesn't await us there. Or maybe I should say "bankbreak."

Nice Government Men in the Treasury are helping out their buddies in the Federal Reserve (a private corporation) by pumping up the money supply with "repos" (repurchase agreements). One suspects (if one has a high enough IQ to open a box of cereal) that the Fed ceased publishing M3 data because they wanted to mask their planned inflation. Now the Treasury is pumping up the money supply in a sneaky way that doesn't show up in the published statistics. How does that make you feel?

Confident about the dollar's future? Sounds a bit Bolivian to me, or perhaps Paraguayan.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Silver Price Close over 1325 and Gold Price Close Over 640 Would Confirm a Breakout

SILVER AND GOLD PRICES won't get weak, and won't get strong. Reminds me of the man who had killed his parents and then threw himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan. From here a metals breakout would be confirmed by silver closing over 1325 & gold closing above 640 at the same time. Today gold fought off a decline to 615 and silver to 1246, and both shook off the attack and rose to close above the support areas. More times this happens, greater the likelihood they will break, make another low, then bound up. I'm torn between two minds, but lean a bit toward lower prices. Certainly, until metals have to reach those higher closes before I can say they've turned up. However, this stalemate shouldn't last long. Even if we get lower prices first, a rally lieth not far distant in the future.

US Dollar rose 2 basis points today, a meaningless fluctuation. Right now balance lies on the downside. Dollar needs a close above 87.30 to turn up.

Market speak with fork├ęd tongue -- or out of both sides of its mouth. The DOW made good today its breakout over 12,200 by adding another 33.7 points. Dow Industrials Average is going higher, solo, unaccompanied by the Dow Transports, a significant non-confirmation. Many will be the unsuspecting investor bereft of his funds before this ends. Use high stock prices as an opportunity to swap stocks for silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

Silver and Gold Remain Out of Synch

Did SILVER AND GOLD fool me last Friday into believing they had broken out upside? Highly possible. I should have followed my own rule and insisted on a new high gold close, & not just a close over 630. Silver & gold remain out of synch. It seems that weak gold is having its spine stiffened by stubborn silver, which refuses to break 1280. Today gold dropped as low as 618 and snapped back to close down only 40 cents at 623.80. Silver traded as low as 1270. In the aftermarket silver is trading at 1283 bit gold has dropped to 621.80, so we may see lower prices yet before their minds clear & silver & gold prices get back in step. Still, Thursday's performance warns us how fast metals can and will move, so I'd still be buying at these prices.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO traders are sitting tight, snug on big piles of silver that we bought with gold when the ratio was 53 - 56. We're waiting for a spectacular move, so wait patiently.

Today I'll tell y'all something that may sound contradictory, but is not, namely, I think stocks may have a wild parabolic rally yet not gain any ground against gold. Why? Because I'm staring at the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS chart, which measures the Dow's performance in gold, and its rally that began last July appears to have spent itself. Huff, huff, huff, flat on its back out of breath. The DiG$ would have to climb to G$433 (20.95 oz) & above to change my mind, from today's G$406.17 (19.65 oz). Looks to have topped and begun to fall again.

However the Dow closed at a new high today, which raises the odds that it will blow off vertically. Crazy moves like this can do most anything, but as I said a month or more past, we might see a blow off top that carries to 12,750 or so. This will be the shorting opportunity of all shorting opportunities. If you haven't yet swapped stocks for silver & gold, it's time for that, too.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

Gold and Silver reversed and broke out to the upside.

Dearest Readers,

The Moneychanger's on the road today, but called in this commentary:

"Today Gold and Silver reversed and broke out to the upside. This is the rally I've been waiting for. Buy now."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

This is it, the last correction, the one we've been waiting on.

GOLD AND SILVER PRICES, could not break through resistance and fell back to support levels, the gold price through two levels (622 & 618) while silver fell only to the first support level, 1250. Beneath us 610 & 602 are waiting to catch the gold price. Tomorrow you'll get a chance to buy at least some around 610. Buy silver at 1225, 1200, and 1180.

In spite of closing at 616.40 & 1250.7, gold and silver have traded as low as 613 & 1241.5. Now they've turned back up, but it still points lower tomorrow.

This is it, the last correction, the one we've been waiting on. It's just beginning but will likely unroll very fast. You snooze, you lose.

I confess I am a stock bear, but even a blind hog finds an acorn sometimes. My friend RL says that to read a chart, you have to tear off the top, where it's labelled, to make sure you are reading the chart, and not your bias. So if I tear the top off the 5 day Dow chart, what do I see? A very plain double top just under 12,200, which leads to my concluding the next few days the Dow will fall.

Of course, a close through 12,200 would negate that. And now, a word from my bias: Folks, swap stocks for silver & gold. You'll be glad you did. (I bet y'all think I'm writing this every day to be funny, or to sell metals. Well, I'm not. I'm as serious as a cranky jet engine at 30,000 feet.)

Currency markets apparently didn't think anything of the election, one way or the other. The dollar index rose 9 basis points -- meaning- less. The situation remains unclear. A close below 85 takes the dollar down, a close above 87.3 takes it up. In between is lost hopes & found disappointments.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Monday, October 30, 2006

Gold Burst Through the US$600 Barrier Today

The GOLD PRICE burst through the US$600 barrier today but stopped short of 610. This honey's headed higher, at least to 618-620.

The SILVER PRICE did not confirm gold's breakout above resistance, but was turned back by 1223. Will probably break thru 1225 tomorrow, but stiff resistance rules through 1250, so progress will be slow.

DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (Dow measured by gold) has once aghain been turned back in defeat from the $425-435 level. Dow still not very strong against gold (or silver).

US $ Index fiddled today, no resolution. A slip through 85.50 takes the dollar down.

Dow has the look of having turned down. Action Friday & Monday look like impulse wave dowm, but what do I know? I'm a stock bear, yet I know one thing: One day we will wake up and say, "Yesterday was the last day to swap stocks for silver & gold."

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Friday, October 27, 2006

If Gold Passes $620 It Should Fly

The GOLD PRICE has twice bounced off 600 since end-September without penetrating. Third time may be the charm, since the more times it hits, the greater the chance it will penetrate. Gold faces strong resistance just under 610, & even strong resistance tucked under 620. Ahh, but if the GOLD PRICE passes 620, it should fly. (Downside it must keep holding 588.80 and 560.)

Whooo-eee! The SILVER PRICE looks ready to take on the moon. Tomorrow silver must close above 1220 to maintain this momentum. Then it lands in heavy slogging resistance from 1220 to 1275. Above 1275 nothing much stands in the way of silver's view of the sky. If the Gold/Silver ratio falls through 49:1, it will fall a long, long ways further. Great news if you own silver.

The US DOLLAR INDEX fell for their third day straight. It may have ended today, but if not, watch out. Today it hit the 50 Day Moving Average. It should turn around at 85.50, but absolutely must hold 85 or break down and fall to 84.40 or lower. Some of those Nice Government Men better get up of their big, soft, $2,000 office chairs and start manipulating something. What's this world coming to? They just don't make bureaucrats like they used to.

If I owned stocks (surprise! I don't) the last four day's Dow chart would have me sweating & pondering. Looks like distribution to me, toppy. Out of the last 11 days, the Dow has closed up nine. How long? Long enough for y'all to sell stocks and buy silver & gold, I hope. Owch! Yesterday I forgot to return to the subject of the key reversal. Last night's closes, of course, confirmed it and boy! did it prove itself today in gold and silver.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Monday, October 23, 2006

The Gold Price May Put in One More Low

It's a fact of life about corrections that people begin to lose hope and begin wondering whether they were right in the first place. Poor old GOLD PRICE is getting kicked in the teeth hard every time it approaches US$600. The SILVER PRICE and the GOLD PRICE are somewhat out of synch right now. The way I read the charts, the SILVER PRICE has already made its bottom, and is building one of those long, narrow correction triangles that are its trademark.

The GOLD PRICE, on the other hand, may put in one more low. These are the times when your guts roil & you want to puke in the wastebasket just thinking about buying silver or gold. On the other hand, if you are right and you buy, these are the times you will tell your grandchildren (not to mention your brother-in-law) about the rest of your life. I'd buy more silver than gold. The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is fixing to make a huge slide.

The US Dollar jumped well today, to challenge once again 87.30 & its 200 DMA (87.07). It's hard making friends when you are as undependable as the dollar. What I believe the buck has done is trade out a long, narrow equilateral triangle based on last May's low at 83.66, up through 84.39. At the top it is bounded by 87.33 & 87.30. This should break out upside to challenge 91, but who would want to play it? Hurts too bad to be the dollar's friend.

Stocks today, y'all needn't remind me, rose through my 12,075 upper target. All I can say is, I warned y'all that the Dow could keep on rising into January. Nevertheless -- Nonetheless -- Notwithstanding, nothing has changed my mind about stocks. The rest of the bear market will be worse because of this divergence of 6 years between the Dow's final top and the other indices' tops. Therefore, SSFSAG (Swap stocks for silver & gold).

It deserves more than a passing notice that the Dow In Gold Dollars did NOT reach a new high along with the Dow, reflecting stocks' lack of strength against gold. The previous high at G$435.90 occurred on gold's last low, not on stock strength. Today it reached only G$432.08 (20.90 oz). Still to be seen is whether the DiG$ can reach the G$475 half way point. The longer it goes without reaching that point, the weaker the case for stocks.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Friday, October 20, 2006

Get Busy Buying Gold & Silver If You Want To Get On Board This Rocket

Here's the silver and gold price scorecard for the week:

12-Oct 20-Oct Change % change

Silver, cents/oz. 1129.5 1189 59.50 5.3%
Gold, dollars/oz. 576.30 593.00 16.70 2.9%
Gold/silver ratio 51.02 49.87 -1.15 -2.3%
Silver/gold ratio 0.01960 0.02005 0.00045 2.3%
Dow in Gold Dollars (DiG$) $ 428.13 $ 418.40 $ (9.73) -2.3%
Dow in gold ounces 20.71 20.24 -0.471 -2.3%
Dow in Silver Ounces 1,056.72 1,009.45 -47.265 -4.5%
Dow Industrials 11,935.61 12,002.37 66.760 0.6%
S&P500 1,359.62 1,368.60 8.98 0.7%
US dollar index 87.96 86.28 -1.68 -1.9%
Platinum 1,057.60 1,078.60 21.00 2.0%
Palladium 307.90 327.70 19.80 6.4%

Here's a riddle for the week, for all those know-it-alls who live in the world of theory rather than the real world: If silver and gold prices are supposed to move opposite to stocks, how come both metals and stocks rose this week? How come for much of the past year that the dollar and gold rose at the same time? Can you explain that? Can you tell me when the hind will calf? Right. My point is that humility goeth before success, and a constant willingness to check the facts & your premises. And sometimes, things that look good are in fact rotten, while things that look rotten are good.

Take stocks, for example. The Dow hit a new all-time high this week, crossing over 12,000. But obviously it has hit a wall. Now that's to be expected at such a monumental mark, but why aren't the other indices hitting new highs? Because also the Dow looks good, things are rotten for stocks, and this rally will play itself out in the first quarter of next year.

Meanwhile, SILVER AND GOLD PRICES look rotten, right? Well, until you look closer. Last week I guessed that they had bottomed and broken through long standing barriers at 1120 and 576. Today both metals dropped, but only after having challenged 1200 and 600 this week and cleared resistance at 1185 and 588. If they don't break out on this move, they will dip down once more and then break out.

Whichever occurs, you had better get busy buying gold and silver if you want to get on board this rocket.

As further proof, look at the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS. Don't you find it intriguing, doesn't it pique your interest, that while the Dow reaches historic highs, it can't reach G$425 (20.56 oz) resistance against gold? No, it lost nearly G$10 (1/2 ounce) against gold.

Another reason why you should sell stocks and buy silver & gold. The US Dollar appeared to have broken out to the upside, then gave up everything this week and may have shot its hopes in the head today. If it cannot break through 87.30, then much lower prices await the buck.

A friend sent me a footnote to my diatribe & denunciation of IRAs & 401(k)s & such-like forced investment schemes that give you little choice to invest as you want. Into IRAs you can put Central Fund of Canada (CEF-NYSE) that owns a big pile of metal, 50% gold & 50% silver, outside the US. You can also buy the gold ETF, GLD, or silver ETF, SLV. And in some 401(k) & company investment plans you can buy precious metals mutual funds, or bear mutual funds that profit when stocks drop. You can also put physical precious metals into IRAs through Sterling Trust, (800) 955-3434, or American Church Trust, (800) 228-8825, using us or any other metals dealer as your broker. These means will help you sell stocks and buy silver & gold, even if you're trapped in an IRA, 401(k), or company plan.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Will Silver and Gold Prices Run Away Right Now?

The last five days in the GOLD market have unfolded like a textbook classic: break through 588 resistance, run for 600 resistance, touchback to 588, mad leap through 600 resistance.

SILVER was just as good -- through 1150, stymied at 1185, touch back to support, then crash through 1185 to 1200. Now am I in a quandary, undecided whether silver and gold prices will run away right now to break through old highs at 1500 and 720, or whether they will touch back once more. I favour the latter. The silver price runs into more resistance at 1215, all the way to 1250. The gold price faces resistance at 600,610, and 618-620. A breakout would require a close above 635.

Oh. Oh. The Dow today rose over 12,000, but not as high as yesterday's 12,049, only to 12,027. And it closed over 12,000 as well. To me, this smells weak, but I'm a bear.

Of course, for those of you who are not, unfortunately, trapped in IRAs, etc. where you can't escape of the government plantation without paying a big tax penalty, this represents another opportunity for y'all to swap stocks for silver and gold. (Maybe I ought to just append the initials every day, to avoid repeating it: SSFSAG.)

Note carefully that the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS, i.e., the Dow measured in gold, actually dropped on this historic day when the Dow valued in paper rose over 12,000.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

Likely Strong Run Up in Gold, Followed by Downward Test Before Take Off!

The US DOLLAR INDEX chart looks rotten today. It has bounced
off the 87 - 87.30 ceiling thrice since mid-June. In fairness, 3 days ago
it hit the 200 Day Moving Average, so it is to be expected it would
ricochet. Still, it the buck can't climb above 87.30 soon, gravity will
take over.

STOCK market bulls are all bloviating about a new bull market,
but it's all bloviation. From whence will it launch, from P.E.s of 18
and yields of 1.6%? Not much foundation there, I trow. Flee stocks,
yes, sell them as soon as possible and buy silver and gold. Y'all will
look back on this as the opportunity of a couple of lifetimes.

Will the GOLD/SILVER RATIO rise again, or has it already seen
its high for this move? If you still hold gold you want to swap for
silver, do it whenever the ratio reaches 53:1, or miss it forever.

Here's the picture on the GOLD PRICE moving averages, all rising: 17 day at 584.32, 50 at 602.87, 200 at 599.51. What happened today? Gold simply
bounced off its 200 and 50 DMAs, and, more importantly, its top
channel line. Can it break through? I think so, for a test of 610, then
620. If it clears 625, it's running again. Beneath lies obvious support at
560. Most likely outcome seems to me a strong run up, followed by
one more downward test before it takes off. There's time to do all
that before end-November. Today, notice, that Gold fell back
to 588-ish resistance, but not through. I read that as strong.

Today the SILVER PRICE offered no surprise. It reached its 50 DMA (1173.92) and you can expect sellers clustered around that number. Still, it
stands above its other MA.s, which are all pointed up. Expect higher
prices and an attack on 1200 soon.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Further Support that Silver & Gold Have Bottomed

I am far, far too gracious (and modest) ever to employ those hated words, "I told you so." Therefore I will pass over in silence the repeated warnings you read somewhere that both silver and gold were liable to rise. (If any of you are interested the rhetorical device here is called praeteritio, to mention by listing as excluded. Your mother used it all the time.)

I went to Chattanooga, & gold and silver prices went berserk, on Friday. The GOLD PRICE jumped up through 575 resistance to 588.80, then closed today up another 5.90 to 594.70. What can I say? It is headed for 618 at least. The SILVER PRICE lagged not, neither did it fall behind. It closed on Friday up 30.3 cents at 1159.80, then rose another 23 cents to close today at 1182.80, on its way to 1200, perhaps even 1260.

All of this positive price action lends further support to the argument that silver & gold have already bottomed, although the jury will remain out until gold crosses 625 and silver 1250. Further downside is still possible, but not this week.

Here's one to tuck away in your mind permanently: in a bull market, always buy corrections. In a bear market, always sell rallies.

Against my expectation last Thursday, the Dow has not managed to pierce, or even touch, 12,000. If it does, it will burst upward briefly. It's inability to pierce 12,000 so far doesn't really say much. Even if it has strength enough to pierce it, resistance that psychologically huge would take some work to conquer. So the Dow's failure here could mean inward weakness (my interpretation) or it could amount to nothing more than condign hesitation at so large a barrier. I search the commentators to find some argument to gainsay my conclusions, but end up always thinking the same: swap stocks for silver & gold because this is your last chance.

The US DOLLAR INDEX hit its 200 DMA at 87.15 and crumpled. If it can recover quickly and climb quickly over 87 once again, then it has a shot for higher prices. Otherwise [make a slicing motion across your throat with your thumb].

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO isn't helping swappers. If it rises to 53:1, swap any remaining gold to silver. The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS has not been awed by the strong Dow, but rather sank again today to G$416.45 (20.15 oz). It may not make the 50% fulcrum at G$473 after all, meaning stocks are even weaker than I think.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Thursday, October 12, 2006

Both Gold and Silver Turned Up This Week

One rose doth not a summer make, nor doth one week a change of trend.

However, both the SILVER PRICE and GOLD PRICE turned up this week, and with more significance than might appear on the face of it. With today's gold price close, both metals have climbed above resistance that has imprisoned them so far during this move, 1120 and 575. If they can hold above these levels tomorrow, then there's another argument in favour of a bottom having already occurred. Meanwhile, the silver price needs to close over 1220 and gold over 680 to confirm a trend change (by the time that happens, your chance to buy cheap will be a long-gone, wistful memory). We may see further downside in both metals before the end of November, as low as 525 and 1000. But for now silver's support at 1075 and gold's support at 560 are holding.

The US DOLLAR broke out over 86 this week and in 4 days ran to 87.20. Shorts were complacent. It should race now for 91.

The DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE, it seems obvious, will hit 12,000, probably later today or tomorrow. This will occasion great shouting, bragging, and chest thumping amongst those who sell stocks -- and well it ought to. If you had an occasion like that to shuck your dying investment off onto the sucker public, wouldn't you take it? Be wary, and look: new highs in the Dow do not take the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS to new highs. Interesting. The highest the DiG$ might reach is (from my viewpoint) G$475 (22.98 oz.). Swap stocks for silver and gold. Do yourself a favour.

One of the best arguments favouring silver and gold right now is the generally negative sentiment. Combine that with today's positive price action, and you've got a great place to buy. Remember that corrections must progress through price, time, and sentiment. The first two have pretty well been satisfied, and now sentiment must reach a low before the market can turnaround. Therefore, when you here gurus talking about the end of the commodity bull market and a stronger dollar and other pie-in-the-sky ideas, just ask yourself one question: is the US government about to stop inflating the dollar?

If the answer is yes, then sell your silver & gold and buy stocks & bonds. If the answer is "Not a snowball's chance in Hades, unless of course three asteroids hit Washington, DC simultaneously", then swap stocks for silver and gold, stop your ears, and sit tight.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Gold Price Fell Down to Support at 560

My, O, my, the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS broke out to the upside of a bearish rising wedge. It blew through the previous G$415 (20.07 troy ounce) high and closed at G$435.90 (21.09 oz), whizzing past the G$425 (20.56 oz.) resistance area I had expected would stop it.

What does it mean? It could be the flow-out top of the wedge, and if so will collapse in the next day or so. Or, it could run to the next resistance at G$446 (21.58 oz) to G$454 (21.96 oz), or it could even run all the way to G$475 (22.98 oz.). What does that imply for the gold price? If the Dow went to 12,000, a DiG$ of G$475 implies a gold price of US$522.24. I'm not saying I expect to see that price, only letting you know what the outside of the range is. Speaking whereof, if the Dow exceeds its old high by 3%, that implies a top of 12,075 (3% being the amount it could exceed that old high and remain in the realm of meaning- lessness). Since the Dow has exceeded its old high, we have to reckon with that. However, nothing has altered my sarcasm of recent days, as all this is like watching the farewell tennis game for a 60 year old Pancho Gonzalez. It may be amazing that he can play so well, but he's 60 and he's not coming back.

The GOLD PRICE fell down to support at 560.00 where all sorts of buyers came roaring out of the woodwork. There was good solid physical buying and in the aftermarket gold rose 4.80, which by itself would have been a good day's work most days. If 560 support breaks, you can expect a drop to 540 - 542. Yes, it's scary and roils your stomach (Where's that wastebasket? I need to puke!) but times like this separate successful investors from the unsuccessful investors. Can you choke down some Pepto-Bismol and buy, or will you cave?

The SILVER PRICE behaved very well, posting a 10.53 low but not staying there any time. Most of the day was spent above 1075, which, if you will cast your mind back a few weeks, was where it stopped last time. Yes, it could drop further, but today could just as well prove to be the bottom. Beneath this targets are 1040, the last intraday low, and the round number 1000. I would certainly buy some here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.

Tuesday, October 03, 2006

Buy Gold and Silver Now

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all time high, but if you think that leaves me sitting in sackcloth & ashes with my palm over my mouth, you're wrong. It leaves me choking on laughter instead. The Dow makes a new all-time high -- on declining volume.

Meanwhile, the Dow Transports are stuck below 4500 and their 200 Day Moving Average, the S&P 500 is 13% below all time highs, and other stock indices lie even further below all time highs. Add to that a fatal rising wedge on the chart, & a broadening top, and you have the recipe for an enormous & sudden fall. Oh, it may not happen tomorrow, and the Dow might press ahead another 2 or 3% from here, but the outcome is sure, and the forecast is certain. This is a bear trap, set most likely by the Bears Little Elves, the Nice Government Men trying to assure election victory for the administration. Beware, beware, and take this golden opportunity to swap stocks for silver & gold.

The GOLD PRICE dropped today US$21.40, then dropped another 1.60 in the aftermarket. It gapped down on the open, and that set off all sorts of technical alarms as it collapsed through one set of stop loss orders after another to find its footing again at the 575 resistance level.

The SILVER PRICE followed gold down, falling even further percentage-wise, to close at 1095.50, below the crucial 1100 level, and then dropped another 11 cents in the after market to wind up at 1084.

If you're listening for me to sing "Woe is me" you'll be waiting a long time. Isn't this what I have been looking for? Now will silver & gold stop at these previous strong support levels, and post a double bottom, or will they drop a little further for new lows? I don't know. Tomorrow they might make another of those V-bottoms, spiking down during the day then closing higher or unchanged. This is what we have been waiting for, this is our opportunity. Do NOT go to sleep at the switch now. Buy Gold and Silver, and if they drop further, buy more. Put two-thirds in silver and one-third into gold.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose today, predictably, but not high enough to trigger our swap. I've been waiting for 55. Keep watching.

The US DOLLAR made another meaningless move. Until it breaks 86 upside or 85 downside, it's just a tale told by an idiot. Come to think of it, it's that all the time.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://The-Moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.