Monday, October 31, 2016

Be Very Patient. Higher Gold Price is Coming

31-Oct-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,271.50-4.00-0.31%
Silver Price, $/oz17.760.000.00%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.585-0.225-0.31%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01400.00000.31%
Platinum Price975.80-2.40-0.25%
Palladium Price617.451.650.27%
S&P 5002,126.15-0.26-0.01%
Dow in GOLD $s294.960.620.21%
Dow in GOLD oz14.270.030.21%
Dow in SILVER oz1,021.42-1.06-0.10%
US Dollar Index98.350.010.01%

IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.

SPOT GOLD:1,277.40

American Eagle1.001,314.441,320.191,320.19
1/2 AE0.50650.96673.831,347.66
1/4 AE0.25328.67343.301,373.21
1/10 AE0.10134.02139.881,398.75
Aust. 100 corona0.981,245.851,254.851,280.19
British sovereign0.24302.96315.961,342.21
French 20 franc0.19236.11240.111,286.05
Maple Leaf1.001,287.401,301.401,301.40
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50734.51670.641,341.27
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25325.74341.701,366.82
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10135.40139.241,392.37
Mexican 50 peso1.211,532.331,543.331,280.03
.9999 bar1.001,281.871,289.401,289.40

VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7213,381.2313,667.2319.12
US 40% silver 1/2s0.305,078.435,228.4317.72
100 oz .999 bar100.001,766.501,801.5018.02
10 oz .999 bar10.00180.15185.1518.52
1 oz .999 round1.0017.6718.1718.17
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.3720.8720.87

Plat. Platypus1.00990.801,020.801,020.80

Markets fell strangely silent today, probably terrorized into inactivity by the election.
Suspicious as I am, I wonder that FBI Chief Comey couldn't find enough to indict Clinton back in the summer, but now at the worst time for Hellery discovers thousands of gamey emails. Mmmm. Sounds like Clinton's sponsors & backers among the Elite are backing off, dropping her. If so, she must stink worse than we know.

Now before y'all start ringing up the loony bin and asking them to haul me away as a paranoid, ponder this. Franklin D. Roosevelt, a Democrat,mind you, said, "In politics, nothing happens by accident. It if happens, you can bet it was planned that way." Y'all just hang up the phone & put away the strait jacket.

Here's the US dollar index chart,

US dollar index moved up one microscopic basis point today to 98.35. Last Tuesday the 25th it hit the move's intraday high , 99.09, but ended the day with a lower close, then clinched a key reversal next day with a lower close. Today it tried to rise, but just couldn't muster the resolve. Probably ready for a correction. If Trump wins that might cause a knee jerk reaction of dollar selling. Might.

Euro continues to deteriorate. Lost 0.05% today for a $1.0980 close. Sick as a gutshot dog. Yen also continues to slide & slide. Lost 0.11% today to 95.39.

US 30 year treasury bond can't stop rolling downhill. Has now fallen out of a rising wedge, back into the (blue outlined) trading channel it "threw over" in July. Way below all moving averages. I hope Janet Yellen has stocked up on Rolaids and Scotch, cause she's gonna need 'em. Bond bomb is set to explode. Chart is here,

'Twas a rotten week for stocks, fighting to climb over the 20 day moving average, in vain. Today they backed up again. Dow lost 18.77 (0.1%) to 18,142.42 while the S&P500 lost 0.26 (0.01%, can you see that? Squint harder.). Today marked the fifth day the S&P500 has dropped. Fifth day in a row.

Gold shuttered Comex today down $4.00 (0.3%) at $1,271.50. Silver was -- get this -- unchanged at 1776.2¢. That rarely happens.

Go look at the gold chart,

Gold broke out of a flag earlier this month & has risen, fandangoing over its 200 DMA, ever since. Notice the volume: it keeps rising as gold rises. Notice also a new intraday high Friday at $1,285.40. And pass not by the other positive indicators, the MACD and RSI. But this is all imagination & pixie dust till gold busts through $1,300 resistance, now running with the 50 DMA at $1,302.67.

Be patient. Be very patient. Higher gold price is coming.

Here's the silver chart for your viewing pleasure,

Like gold, silver drew a pennant during October's first half. Since then it has broken out to the upside, climbed through its 20 DMA, and crawled back into the trading channel it briefly fell out of. RSI & MACD are positive, and silver has been rising on rising volume.

So far, so good, but silver can only gain traction by crossing 1800¢ resistance. Be patient, silver is closing in on it.

Here's the gold/silver ratio. This is not as cooperative as it might be. It rallied October first with the gold & silver plunge, but backed off & has been trading sideways above 71. I don't particularly admire that. An advance in metals ought to take it below the 50 DMA, now 70.27. MACD & RSI have turned down, so the ratio ought soon to follow.

Reader GR asked me about platinum, which I seldom mention. Here's a daily platinum chart for 12 months, Looks about like the silver chart, but still struggling to climb above its 200 DMA. It will, it will, and soon.

More to the point is this gold/platinum spread chart, With gold trading 1.3 times (130%) platinum, the spread lies in the far upper end of the range, but won't prove it has changed direction until it falls through that blue uptrend line. Minute it does that will be time to buy platinum or to trade a little (a little) gold for platinum.

To sum it all up, silver & gold are slugging they way forward against a headwind. All markets are quiet, suggesting they are afraid to move, uncertain what the election will bring. If the FBI keeps piling into Hellery, that could change. Markets hate uncertainty.

My trip to Virginia was really refreshing. Took 10 hours to drive from Dogwood Mudhole to Roanoke. I asked the clerk at the motel if there was a Mexican restaurant nearby, he said right next door. I walked over there and sitting there realized that I actually enjoyed watching Susan eat more than eating myself. She ate with such gusto it was fun to watch, and this tiny 120 lb woman could eat way more at a sitting than I could. She had the metabolism of a shrew: they have to eat their body weight every day or fade away.

Next day I hit the jackpot. I hate eating at chain restaurants, but it's not easy to find a Mom & Pop place near the interstate. Stopped & asked and was pointed to Angelle's Diner, 2609 Lee Highway, Troutville, VA -- Sweet, welcoming folks and wonderful REAL Southern food. The country ham was perfect, without that aftertaste that sometimes mars its beauty.

I got off I-81 and drove up the Lee Highway (US 11), a road Susan & I have travelled many times, with children, grandchildren, & by ourselves. Drove to Natural Bridge, then on to Lexington, stopping first at the Stonewall Jackson Cemetery to visit Jackson's grave. Can't go to Lee's tomb any more, as the cowards at Washington & Lee have removed the original Army of Northern Virginia battle flags that hung there.

Everywhere I was surrounded by sweet memories & the grace of God. I'd play music Susan loved, and I'd cry and I'd laugh, but I was still comforted. At synod in Richmond I saw lots of old friends who all graciously sympathized. They all loved Susan, too.

So I'm back. Managed to drive the whole way through carnivorous traffic & remain alive, much to my children's astonishment, & I'm going back to work. God is good to me, and I am grateful.

Forgotten in the Hallowe'en frenzy is that tomorrow is All Saints Day when we celebrate all God's people who have gone before us and now with all the company of heaven wait for us.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
Learn what most investors—including credentialed financial experts—don't know.

Monday, October 24, 2016

GOLD PRICE must hold $1,250 to Keep from Falling Down, but it won't Advance Until it Conquers $1,290 - $1,300

24-Oct-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,262.00-3.90-0.31%
Silver Price, $/oz17.560.110.65%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.860-0.693-0.96%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01390.00010.96%
Platinum Price935.406.800.73%
Palladium Price629.7010.001.61%
S&P 5002,151.3310.170.47%
Dow in GOLD $s298.502.180.74%
Dow in GOLD oz14.440.110.74%
Dow in SILVER oz1,037.64-2.35-0.23%
US Dollar Index98.690.370.38%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,262.60
American Eagle1.001,301.741,304.901,304.90
1/2 AE0.50643.42666.021,332.04
1/4 AE0.25324.86339.321,357.30
1/10 AE0.10132.47138.251,382.55
Aust. 100 corona0.981,230.171,239.171,264.21
British sovereign0.24299.45312.451,327.29
French 20 franc0.19233.37237.371,271.40
Maple Leaf1.001,272.601,286.601,286.60
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50726.00662.871,325.73
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25321.96337.751,350.98
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10133.84137.621,376.23
Mexican 50 peso1.211,513.061,524.061,264.04
.9999 bar1.001,267.021,274.601,274.60
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7213,231.0813,517.0818.91
US 40% silver 1/2s0.304,986.985,136.9817.41
100 oz .999 bar100.001,735.501,770.5017.71
10 oz .999 bar10.00177.05182.0518.21
1 oz .999 round1.0017.3617.8617.86
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.0620.5620.56
Plat. Platypus1.00950.40980.40980.40

I will be travelling the rest of this week. Susan & I were scheduled to attend our annual diocesan synod in Virginia, a state with magical memories for us, & I've decided to make the trip alone. Might do me some good to be quiet, just drive. God willing, I will write again on 31 October, unless I just take a notion to send one before that.

In the meantime, the shadow of elections hangs over markets like an evil smoke botting out the sun. No light will shine through until one of the evil teenagers is elected.

SILVER and GOLD have not followed through on their promise to rally. Today they traded like the fellow who killed his parents and then tried to throw himself on the mercy of the court because he was an orphan. Well, which is it, up or down?

SILVER PRICE went up, broke out of that flaggy formation,

Looked good today with an 11.4¢ gain to 1756.2¢, until you look closer. High came at 1789¢, and the SILVER PRICE closed nearer its 1747¢ low than its high. The SILVER PRICE needs to punch through 1800¢, period. Once it does, it will put on rabbit legs and run.

Lo, the gold chart,

The GOLD PRICE  is sawing back and forth without any gain, but is buoyed up by buyers around $1,250 - $1,260. Throwing a leg over that 20 DMA (1,276.23) would be a good first step, but the goal post is $1,300. Right now the gold price keeps doing a fandango. back & forth over its 200 DMA. Charmin', but no progress.

So here's the story: The GOLD PRICE must hold $1,250 to keep from falling down, but it won't advance until it conquers $1,290 - $1,300. Overhanging election may keep it trapped in this range.

SILVER PRICE must not break 1430¢, but to rally must crack 1800¢. All else is meaningless churning.

Back off a minute for the bigger picture. Gold & silver both bottomed last December (I'll break my rule here and say I TOLD Y'ALL SO) & the following strong rally into 2016 proved the bottom. Rally peaked in July for the top of the first leg up, then entered this correction we are suffering yet. This will mark, or already has, the bottom of wave 2, and will take off from here into a foamin'-at-the-mouth 3rd wave rally. That would make now a good time to accumulate metals.

Course, that's only the opinion of a nat'ral born durn fool from Tennessee, & I'm warning y'all, it may be I don't know "Sic 'em" from "Come yere."

Stocks remind me of a one-winged buzzard that can only fly in circles getting lower & lower to the ground. They rose today -- Dow up 77.23 (0.43%) to 18,223.03 & the SP500 up 10.17 (0.47%) to 2,151.33 -- that that don't butter no biscuit. Still in a down trend, still look sick as a 10 year old chewin' tobacco the first time. Green & getting' greener.

US dollar index rose 37 basis points (0.38%) to 98.69. Don't ask me what's driving it, unless its those gullible souls (I'm tryin' to be charitable here) who believe Janet Yellen and the other Fed criminals will raise interest rates in December. Hogwash. Anyhow, dollar index is as overbought as doilies at an old ladies' convention. Here's the chart: look at the RSI above and the MACD below. Only things that could make the dollar look good are the euro & yen, and even then . . .

Keep watching interest rates. Next panic should begin there.

I'll miss y'all. No language could stretch to thanking y'all for all the sweet & comforting expressions of sympathy and condolences you have sent since Susan died. If you were close enough I'd hug every one of you and thank you. Thank you for helping us bear our burden, & reminding us to hope.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
Learn what most investors—including credentialed financial experts—don't know.

Friday, October 21, 2016

Silver and Gold Prices are Firmly Pointed Skyward

Here's the weekly scorecard:
14-Oct-1621-Oct-16Change% Change
Silver Price, cents/oz.1,739.301,744.805.500.3
Gold Price, dollars/oz.1,253.101,265.9012.801.0
Gold/silver ratio72.04672.5530.5070.7
Silver/gold ratio0.01390.0138-0.0001-0.7
Dow in Gold Dollars (DIG$)299.22296.31-2.91-1.0
Dow in gold ounces14.4714.33-0.14-1.0
Dow in Silver ounces1,042.861,039.99-2.87-0.3
Dow Industrials18,138.3818,145.717.330.0
US dollar index98.0098.600.600.6
Platinum Price935.90928.60-7.30-0.8
Palladium Price647.25619.70-27.55-4.3
21-Oct-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,265.900.300.0
Silver Price, $/oz17.45-0.05-0.3
Gold/Silver Ratio72.5530.0190.0
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0138-0.0000-0.3
Platinum Price928.60-2.60-0.3
Palladium Price619.70-12.10-1.9
S&P 5002,141.16-0.18-0.0
Dow in GOLD $s296.31-0.31-0.1
Dow in GOLD oz14.33-0.02-0.1
Dow in SILVER oz1,039.992.260.2
US Dollar Index98.600.370.4
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,265.00
American Eagle1.001,299.161,307.381,307.38
1/2 AE0.50644.64667.291,334.58
1/4 AE0.25325.48339.971,359.88
1/10 AE0.10132.72138.521,385.18
Aust. 100 corona0.981,232.511,241.511,266.59
British sovereign0.24300.01313.011,329.71
French 20 franc0.19233.81237.811,273.77
Maple Leaf1.001,275.001,289.001,289.00
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50727.38664.131,328.25
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25322.58338.391,353.55
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10134.09137.891,378.85
Mexican 50 peso1.211,515.931,526.931,266.43
.9999 bar1.001,269.431,277.001,277.00
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7213,181.0313,467.0318.84
US 40% silver 1/2s0.304,966.335,116.3317.34
100 oz .999 bar100.001,728.501,763.5017.64
10 oz .999 bar10.00176.35181.3518.14
1 oz .999 round1.0017.2917.7917.79
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0018.9920.4920.49
Platinum Platypus1.00943.60973.60973.60

This feels like Sitzkrieg, that first 8 months in World War II when war had been declared, but nobody moved. There's an eerie silence, a degenerating calm, the shells have not yet started falling. Yesterday Fred Reed said the choice between Hillary and Trump was the choice between a bad acid trip and death by sinus drainage. The world and markets aren't facing nice choices. They're holding their breath. At some point, hammers will fall. 

This weeks stocks finished slightly better than unchanged, but still lost ground. Dollar index finally launched an (almost) believable rally. In spite of dollar strength SILVER and GOLD PRICES are trying to rally. 

First, the scrofulous, scabrous US dollar index, loathsome bloodsucker on the necks of nations. 23 month chart lies here, 

Chart's ambiguous, because it is a trading range occurring after a long rise (from Summer 2014). This trading range may signify a consolidation, an area where a market catches breath before continuing, or a reversal. Dollar index has two strikes against it, those double tops in March 2015 and December 2015. I pass over with a nod and jut of chin that lower top in February 2016, which begs to be called a failed attempt at a third top. Leave that alone for now. 

The trading range has been roughly halved by resistance around 98. Observe how many failures have occurred there. Aha -- this time the dollar index has broken through 98. Today it gained 37 basis points to close at 98.60. Wow. Does that mean it will crash through resistance at 100, where the 2015 double tops stopped? 

Can't tell you, but the general rule is there ain't no such thing as triple tops or triple bottoms. Third time a market hits, it breaks through. Hence if the dollar intends to rally, it will shoot through 100 and head for 120 (sounds crazy, but the 2014 rally began about 80. 120 would be symmetrical.) 

That's not a prediction, it's a possibility. On the other hand, if the dollar index fails above 98 yet again, then we can probably reckon with a fall through the range's bottom. 

I don't believe the Fed can afford to let the dollar run to 120 while it chokes on a tsunami of money flooding into the dollar. US exports die and all sorts of other problems pop up. 

But what do I know, a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee? What kind of central banker would I make, in overalls and shoeless at them fancy IMF parties with all them furriners? Shoot, they eat fish eggs at them shindigs. And they ain't even devilled. What kind of fool am I, critizizing my central bank betters! Why, some of them have stolen more money in a day than I'll make in a lifetime! 

Here's the short and sweet on stocks: if you ain't moving forward, you're sliding backward. Look at the Dow chart, 

Looks like icicles meltin' off a steep roof, don't it? Been meltin' since that August high. Volume rises on the falls. Downtrend established. To expect higher prices out of this chart is the triumph of self-delusion over realism.

Dow today dropped 16.64 (0.09% to 18,145.71. S&P lost a tee-tiny 0.18 to 2,141.16. 
Gold today rose 30 cents (get out your jeweler's loupe) to $1,265.90. Silver backed off 5.4¢ to 1744.8¢. 
Gold chart lies here, 

The infant rally has touched back to the 200 day moving average, and today was knocked through it but recovered to close above. All indicators point up. We might get another scare around election time, confusion no matter which teenager is "elected," but that will be the last of any weakness we'll see the rest of this year. Fed will raise interest rates in December if and when frogs grow wings so they don't bump their little bottoms when they jump. Central banking is on the run, and gold will benefit. 

Silver's chart is right here, 

Same process is taking place that you see on gold's chart, all indicators pointing up. Higher prices coming. 
With the exception of that threat of instability around election day, SILVER & GOLD PRICES are firmly pointed skyward. I didn't give you charts for it today, but interest rates are rising, and, listen to my words, they will unravel the whole world's sweater. 

I opened this commentary to see that on Friday, 7 October I had dashed out of here to help Susan with a punctured tire. She made it home, but in the morning nothing I & my grandson could do would move the lug nuts. We tried to plug it, but the cut was so wide it still leaked. We had to attend a picnic an hour away, so left the car and asked my son, Zachariah the Mechanic, to change it and put on the donut spare. Went to the picnic, came back & picked up Susan's pickup at Zach's. As we headed home in separate cars, she waved me on & told me she was going by the farm to pick up ground beef for supper. We were having overnight guests we had never met, with four young children. 

Not ten minutes after I arrived at our house (The Shoe) and was talking to our guests, here comes a text from Susan: "Have punctured another tire!" She had to trudge up the hill to get a signal out of that dark holler. 

When I arrived here donut spare was worthless. I told her to just back the car up, lock it, & leave it. She did, but when she stepped out of the car in the boots she had lovingly polished that morning, she stepped ankle deep into a cowpie. Had it been me, I'd have laid down on the side of the road and given up. Two punctures and a cowpie is my limit. Instead, she tried to clean off her boot on the grass -- "Get in the car, Hon, I've got rubber mats, it's okay." At home she speedily washed off the offending boot, then went inside, made folks she had never before laid eye on feel welcome as Queen Elizabeth at Windsor Castle, fixed supper for everyone, and smiled. 

That's what the love of God overflowing from your heart can do. 

Y'all enjoy your weekend.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
Learn what most investors—including credentialed financial experts—don't know.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

Gold Price Trades Back to the Breakout for a Final Kiss Good-Bye

20-Oct-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,265.60-2.30-0.18%
Silver Price, $/oz17.50-0.11-0.65%
Gold/Silver Ratio72.3120.3370.47%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0138-0.0001-0.47%
Platinum Price931.20-8.90-0.95%
Palladium Price631.80-2.65-0.42%
S&P 5002,141.34-2.95-0.14%
Dow in GOLD $s296.66-0.12-0.04%
Dow in GOLD oz14.35-0.01-0.04%
Dow in SILVER oz1,037.734.430.43%
US Dollar Index98.310.370.38%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,264.90
American Eagle1.001,299.051,307.271,307.27
1/2 AE0.50644.59667.231,334.47
1/4 AE0.25325.45339.941,359.77
1/10 AE0.10132.71138.511,385.07
Aust. 100 corona0.981,232.421,241.421,266.49
British sovereign0.24299.99312.991,329.61
French 20 franc0.19233.80237.801,273.68
Maple Leaf1.001,274.901,288.901,288.90
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50727.32664.071,328.15
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25322.55338.361,353.44
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10134.08137.871,378.74
Mexican 50 peso1.211,515.811,526.811,266.33
.9999 bar1.001,269.331,276.901,276.90
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7213,141.7013,427.7018.78
US 40% silver 1/2s0.304,964.855,114.8517.34
100 oz .999 bar100.001,728.001,763.0017.63
10 oz .999 bar10.00176.30181.3018.13
1 oz .999 round1.0017.2817.7817.78
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0018.9820.4820.48
Plat. Platypus1.00946.20976.20976.20

Don't y'all get caught up in little day to day moves. Step back & look harder.
Yesterday silver and gold prices bettered their Tuesday breakouts. But alas! They fell back today. Does that mean the whole promise has been broken?

Not hardly. Usually when markets break out (up or down), they trade back to the breakout for a final kiss good-bye. Offers the watchful a superb place to buy.

The GOLD PRICE lost $2.30 (0.2%) today to $1,265.60. Comex SILVER PRICE lost 11.4¢ (0.7%) to 1750.2¢.

Here's a gold chart,

Gold poked through the 200 day moving average yesterday (yeah!), then kissed back to it today. Meanwhile rate of change is straight up and MACD has turned unequivocally positive.
Silver chart's right here,

The SILVER PRICE  followed a similar pattern. Broke out of triangle Tuesday, advanced yesterday, dropped back to breakout line today. So where are we? With a rally beginning, PROVIDED silver & gold keep rising again.

Here's more evidence of strong physical demand. The cheap small gold coins I've been begging y'all to buy have plumb disappeared from the market, and most low premium gold coins are hard to locate. (Add this to what I told y'all earlier about the rising US 90% silver coins premium and rising gold coin premiums.) And this is happening suddenly.

Y'all don't reckon the sight of those two teenagers swapping insults on TV last night is panicking folks into buying gold, do you?

Not gonna waste time talking about stocks. They are trending down and without closes above 18,350 or 2170, downtrend will continue marching toward the cliff, and at last reach it.

US Dollar index chart is here. Hold your nose & look at it,

It has now risen past the July intraday high (97.62) & closed today above that at 98.31, having gained 37 basis points today (0.38%). Remains a bit iffy until it pulls past this new high, but assumption is it will continue higher. Odd, today's fairly meaty rise did not cause a big bruise on gold & silver.

Keep watching the bond markets for a Big Bang. 10 year treasury yield fell a little today, but stands above its 200 DMA.

Bottom line: SILVER & GOLD have a good sprout on a rally, but that sprout has to grow. Stocks are waiting for catastrophe. Can the Fed allow the dollar to keep climbing? I wonder. Sweat, Janet, sweat!

I hope y'all won't mind my sharing one more little Susan story. I said in her eulogy that she "adored planning parties & celebrations. She taught us to rejoice. Love made her play on purpose, just as she controlled everything else about herself on purpose."

First Christmas we were married we spent Christmas Eve with Susan's parents. She woke up as dawn cracked and danced downstairs like a six-year old . I clumped downstairs swollen and sullen with sleep. Susan was dancing around the tree, pulling out presents to show me. Clearly, I did not share her enthusiasm. She didn't like that. Finally she took a deep breath and searched for the worst name she could call me: "You're just a . . . mean, grumpy old person!" I deserved it.

A friend who is also widowed reminded me that his late wife (and our friend) often quoted C.S. Lewis' line: "Joy is the serious business of heaven."

Joy, dear friends, is serious business, and y'all better get serious about it.

Now some of y'all will read than and it will roll off like water off a duck's back, because you are too busy for joy. Others will see, & taste, & drink, & begin to understand why the most serious souls are also the very merriest.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
Learn what most investors—including credentialed financial experts—don't know.

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Both Silver and Gold Prices Flashed that Little Sign Today

18-Oct-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,260.806.400.51%
Silver Price, $/oz17.590.170.95%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.673-0.311-0.43%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01400.00010.43%
Platinum Price932.7010.301.12%
Palladium Price638.351.600.25%
S&P 50021,396.0013.100.06%
Dow in GOLD $s297.78-0.27-0.09%
Dow in GOLD oz14.41-0.01-0.09%
Dow in SILVER oz1,032.46-5.44-0.52%
US Dollar Index97.890.010.01%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,261.20
American Eagle1.001,296.511,303.451,303.45
1/2 AE0.50642.70665.281,330.57
1/4 AE0.25324.50338.951,355.79
1/10 AE0.10132.32138.101,381.01
Aust. 100 corona0.981,228.811,237.811,262.81
British sovereign0.24299.11312.111,325.88
French 20 franc0.19233.11237.111,270.01
Maple Leaf1.001,271.201,285.201,285.20
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50725.19662.131,324.26
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25321.61337.371,349.48
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10133.69137.471,374.71
Mexican 50 peso1.211,511.381,522.381,262.65
.9999 bar1.001,265.611,273.201,273.20
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7213,213.2013,499.2018.88
US 40% silver 1/2s0.304,994.355,144.3517.44
100 oz .999 bar100.001,738.001,773.0017.73
10 oz .999 bar10.00177.30182.3018.23
1 oz .999 round1.0017.3817.8817.88
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0019.0820.5820.58
Plat. Platypus1.00947.70977.70977.70

There's a saying describing some sign as "a little cloud like a man's hand on the horizon." Easy to overlook such things, but dangerous, as dangerous as over-estimating them.

Both silver & gold prices flashed that little sign today. Both broke out of even-sided triangles, or, you might call them "flags." Y'all look with me.

Here's the gold chart,

Lo and behold! Gold Price closed up 6.40 (0.5%) at $1,260.80. That close busted through the top of that triangle and closed barely below the 200 day moving average ($1,263.75). The MACD is turning up and the histogram is shrinking.

What must the little sign do to prove itself? First, close above that 200 DMA, preferably tomorrow. Second, keep marching upward. Third, keep on increasing volume, as it did today. Over the longer haul it needs to close above the 20 DMA and $1,300. Brutal, I know, but accurate.

Comex silver today rose 16.5¢ (0.9%) to 1759.1¢. Cast your eyes here for the chart,

Silver's chart looks way stronger than gold's, but then, it hadn't broken down as badly. For instance, when silver broke down, it fell out of its channel and tumbled, but stopped at its 200 DMA, screech! Now today it busted out the top of that even-sided triangle, and also closed barely above the channel line. Strong as a garlic milkshake. Well, strong as a shallot milkshake anyway.

RSI is rising after being oversold, MACD is turning up, histogram is thinning. All this is hopeful, but must continue. Silver next must re-conquer that last breakdown point at 1800¢. Not looking for glory rides here, merely for steady advance. That'll do.

Now ponder with me the gold/silver ratio, pictured here,

Recall that the ratio moves opposite to silver & gold, so a falling ratio points toward rising prices. The ratio broke above that interior (blue dashed) channel line and leapt plumb to the 200 DMA at 74. Panic passed, it dropped back. Has traced out a flag since then & come back to that interior channel line and is ready to punch through it. RSI is falling, MACD is turning eyes downward. It's giving all the signs of breaking down, now just needs to follow through.

Now add to this stew what I told y'all about rising silver AND gold premiums yesterday. That means buyers are hitting the market hard, soaking up available inventory. Dealers raise the premium they pay to try to attract sellers. That happeneth not when buyers are lethargic.

Now that scrofulous, wicked US dollar insect -- whoops, index -- blood sucker of nations, rose one small basis point today, to 97.89. It has crushed the euro & yen, but now appears to be rolling over or running out of steam. Dollar weakness here would certainly accelerate silver & gold.

I wonder sometimes if it's even worth mentioning the Gaga, Never-never Land of Stocks, so withdrawn from reality by central bank manipulating. I'll do it anyway, but with a not very good grace. Dow rose today 75.54 to 18,161.94, gaining today about what it lost yesterday, & sliding, sliding, sliding toward the abyss. S&P500 rose 13.1 to 2,139.60.

What seizes my attention and knocks out the pit of my stomach is interest rates. Oh, my, when central banks lose control of interest rates, the whole world will be dancing like a roach on a hot griddle. Looky here, at the 10 year US Treasury yield:

Ya'll see that it has been steadily rising since July's low, and is drawing a bead on that downtrend line from 2007? Today it stands at 1.749%, and that line stands at about 1.95%.

Here's the 30 year treasury bond. Look here,

That thing you see that marches from upper center to lower right is called a "Downtrend." The bond's price is trending down, and since the July all time high has lost nearly 8%. It "threw over" to the July high, broke back into the rising wedge, kept falling, sliced through the 200 DMA like Susan with a new Cutco knife slicing a Claussen's pickle (or her finger), fell through the bottom wedge boundary, and continueth to tumble. If I was Janet Yellen, I'd be working on my resume. If I were a central banker watching this bond rolling down the hill, I'd be sweatin' bullets and spittin' ahrn filin's. More trouble there than a roomful of drunks with guns , knives, and ill tempers.

This is waxin' int'resting. I noticed, too, that even the mainstream media says the Hillarbeast's poll numbers are falling. They just don't get it, the Insiders, the politicians, or the media. A world wide revulsion against globalism & all the post WW2 policies is taking place that will send them all running for the baseboards like cockroaches when the light switches on. No reason to cry about that, unless you like cockroaches.
Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
Learn what most investors—including credentialed financial experts—don't know.

Monday, October 17, 2016

It's Beginning to Look like Silver & Gold Prices Have Found Sound Footing

17-Oct-16PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,254.401.300.10%
Silver Price, $/oz17.430.030.19%
Gold/Silver Ratio71.984-0.062-0.09%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.01390.00000.09%
Platinum Price932.70-3.20-0.34%
Palladium Price636.75-10.05-1.55%
S&P 5002,126.50-6.48-0.30%
Dow in GOLD $s298.05-1.17-0.39%
Dow in GOLD oz14.42-0.06-0.39%
Dow in SILVER oz1,037.90-4.96-0.48%
US Dollar Index97.88-0.12-0.12%
IMPORTANT NOTE: The following are wholesale, not retail, prices. To figure our retail selling price, multiply the "ask" price by 1.035. To figure our retail buying price, multiple the "bid" price by 0.97. Lower commissions apply to larger orders, higher commissions to very small orders.
SPOT GOLD:1,253.90
American Eagle1.001,291.521,295.911,295.91
1/2 AE0.50638.98661.431,322.86
1/4 AE0.25322.62336.991,347.94
1/10 AE0.10131.55137.301,373.02
Aust. 100 corona0.981,221.701,230.701,255.56
British sovereign0.24297.38310.381,318.53
French 20 franc0.19231.76235.761,262.79
Maple Leaf1.001,263.901,277.901,277.90
1/2 Maple Leaf0.50720.99658.301,316.60
1/4 Maple Leaf0.25319.74335.421,341.67
1/10 Maple Leaf0.10132.91136.681,366.75
Mexican 50 peso1.211,502.631,513.631,255.40
.9999 bar1.001,258.291,265.901,265.90
VG+ Morgan $B4 19050.7725.0027.0035.29
VG+ Peace dollar0.7720.0022.0028.76
90% silver coin bags0.7213,134.5513,420.5518.77
US 40% silver 1/2s0.304,947.155,097.1517.28
100 oz .999 bar100.001,722.001,757.0017.57
10 oz .999 bar10.00175.70180.7018.07
1 oz .999 round1.0017.2217.7217.72
Am Eagle, 200 oz Min1.0018.9220.4220.42
Plat. Platypus1.00947.70977.70977.70

Dear Friends: 

Susan and I spent so many decades together serving y'all that I am sure she'd be madder than a wet wasp if I lay down in the road & quit. Besides, my seven children are with me, hovering around as if I'm going to drown myself in the toilet or starve to death eating salads. I know they are doing it out of love, but I feel like I have to keep typing just so they'll know I still have two marbles to rub together. 

However, my meditations of the last few days have resulted in some advice for men, so hear my words: 
First, when you fill the saltshaker or change a light bulb, don't expect your wife to drop everything and praise you. Remember that she was probably so busy doing laundry, shopping, cooking, caring for kids and for others that she didn't have time for the saltshaker today. It probably wasn't that important. Look for something else to do for her, to lighten her load. And thank her, instead of expecting her to thank you. Praise her. 

Second, hug your wife. Tell her you love her. Mercy, women, hug your husbands, oto. Susan used to complain that I didn't know how to hug because I didn't hug hard enough or long enough. Go ahead, spend that extra nano- second hugging. You'll never miss it. And squeeze harder. 

My webmaster has posted Susan's picture and obituary as well as her eulogy from her funeral at 

I cannot even begin to thank y'all for your kind condolences. Thank you for helping us bear our burdens. 


For a week metals have trudged sideways while stocks broke down out of an even-sided triangle & continue to lose ground. US dollar index has reached 98, but backed off 12 basis points today to 97.88. Dollar index has crushed the euro, and steamrolled the yen. So trends are down for stocks, up for the US dollar index, sideways for gold & silver. 

But there's something mighty suspicious happening with silver & gold premiums. Week ending October 7th the wholesale US 90% silver coin premium reached 90¢ over spot silver, then last week 135¢. Now we are hearing noises of shortages of silver rounds. In itself that might not mean much, but the in the last few days premiums on gold have begun to rise as well. Buy side wholesale premium for Krugerrands went from 0.8% to 1.2%, for American Eagles from 2.5% lately to 3%, and Austrian 100 coronas and Mexican 50 pesos from 991% to 99.4%. 

It's the gold that makes a buzzing in my ear. The 90% premium alone implies greater demand at these prices is pushing up premiums, but when you add to that rising gold coin premiums, only very rarely seen, then it appears that very strong support stands under silver & gold. 
Today on Comex silver added a measly 3.3¢ to 1742.6¢. Gold bumped up $1.30 to $1,254.40. Ratio is 71.984. 

Both silver & gold have formed pennants, which might be downward sloping bullish flags. For the present, the 200 day moving average is supporting both metals. Gold chart is here, 

Y'all will immediately notice how oversold the RSI is, and that the MACD is trying to turn up. 
Here is silver, 

Same oversoldness shows in the RSI, same desire to turn up in the MACD, same pennant formation, which will either be a reversal or continuation. 

It's beginning to look like silver & gold prices have found sound footing.

Argentum et aurum comparanda sunt —
Silver and gold must be bought.
— Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
Learn what most investors—including credentialed financial experts—don't know.

######### editors note: 

You may send emails for Franklin Sanders to : 

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