Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Gold Price Today Lost $7.00 Closing at $1,171.50

30-Jun-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,171.50-7.00-0.59%
Silver Price, $/oz15.55-0.11-0.72%
Gold/Silver Ratio75.3330.0970.13%
Silver/Gold Ratio0.0133-0.0000-0.13%
Platinum Price1,078.60-2.80-0.26%
Palladium Price671.656.200.93%
S&P 5002,063.115.470.27%
Dow17,619.5123.160.13%
Dow in GOLD $s310.912.250.73%
Dow in GOLD oz15.040.110.73%
Dow in SILVER oz1,133.019.650.86%
US Dollar Index95.660.710.75%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
GOLD PRICE today lost $7.00 (yeah, sure) closing at $1,171.50 and SILVER lost 11.3 cents to $15.551.

First, the GOLD/SILVER RATIO. It closed yesterday at 75.236, today at 75.333, a new high for the move. Good (don't drop yore teeth, Granma!), I say. Ratio needs to top before silver and GOLD PRICES will turn. Remember that I expect the window for the seasonal silver and gold low will shut by 10 July or sooner. Don't overlook that footnote.

Since Sunday the price of gold has been steadily backing up, and was pressured again all day today. About 12:15 Eastern time it hit a low at $1,165.40, shot up to $1,180, but was forced back again. Lay aside for a moment all my comments about the Nice Government Men and just look at the chart. The gold price keeps on holding up around that $1,168 mark. WHY? Only one reason a market stops dropping: people start buying. I don't know about the rest of the world, but we have been HOPPING. Customers I haven't seen in years are coming back for another round with silver and gold, and new customers, too. Serious ones.

Looking at support areas, there are previous lows at $1,162 and $1,141 and $1,130. Maybe on the announcement of whatever rat -- whoa, sorry, make that "rabbit" -- the Euros will pull out of their hat, gold spikes down. If so, I am guessing not further than $1,140, although it's looking less and less like that will happen.

Things don't look much different for silver. This $15.50 area has been what I expect to hold, but it could spike to $15.00 or even $14.50. Probably tomorrow will tell the tale. Any good news for Greece and Europe will be bad news for safe haven gold and silver, so the maximum damage will come with that first blow. Watch closely.

Without judging the justification or lack thereof for their suspicions, several people a day call me saying something like, "I just don't trust the dollar, the market, the financial system." Whatever the central banks have sown, distrust and fear are coming up.

I bought some gold and silver today. If it drops tomorrow, I will buy more. We are right now watching the last lows for the year.

But don't take my word for it! I ain't no mor'n a nat'ral born durned fool from Tennessee! But I know this: if the whole doldurned fynanshul system and almighty US dollar to boot go belly up, I can buy me a tin bill and peck in the dirt with the chickens and still make a livin'. Some other folks may go hungry, Lord have mercy on 'em.

Please forgive me for missing a commentary yesterday. My out of town guests arrived before I could write it.

Here's one for y'all to write down in your books, a headline from Marketwatch.com yesterday: "Why Greek financial crisis won't hurt US economy." Y'all write that down right next to Irwin Fisher's famous statement right before the 1929 crash, "Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau."

Let's catch up first. The Greek government shut down the banks, declaring a six day bank holiday, as well as capital controls. Greeks can withdraw in cash from ATMs only 60 euros a day, with a max of 1600 euros a month. Greeks may not send money out of the country without going through an official board (fat chance).

Just to heap up the plate of Debt Gone Rancid, Puerto Rico announced yesterday it can't pay its $72 billion debt and is days away from collapse.

But markets didn't do what you'd expect, not exactly.

Try to put yourself in the Nice Government Men's place. What would YOU do, faced with their needs? European and US NGM have known for months and months Greece might default, and we know all central banks manipulate exchange rates, so you know they've put their heads together to work out their emergency response. Basic parameters are:

1. No stampede out of the euro

2. No stampede into the dollar

3. No stampede into gold

4. No really nasty stampede out of stocks, but some trampling okay.

Once you understand which stampedes you must stop, you know the manipulations you must make. With that in mind, let us ponder yesterday and today -- philosophically, to keep down the tics and retching and fury.

Against all odds the US dollar index, which overnight had shot up to 96.69, punching into overhead resistance, dropped 70 basis points (0.73%) to close at 94.95, well below its 20 DMA. Right. Sure. Of COURSE the US dollar index, safely-haven of scrofulous fiat currencies, would DROP on the day the euro threatens to come unglued. Sure, yeah, natural as a jet engine. Or it could have been a short squeeze in the euro.

On the same day the Euro, flying apart like a Yugo at high speeds, still manages to rise 0.7% to $1.1246. Call me loony, I don't believe it.

And the price of gold, which had jumped up to $1,187 over the weekend, added only $5.60 to $1,178.50. Silver fell 7.1 cents to $15.664. Oh, yeah.

Stocks were allowed some trampling. The Dow Industrials crashed through their 200 DMA (17,681) scraping off 350.33 (1.95%!) to 17,596.35. Whoops! That's about 200 points lower than the Dow closed 2014. Yea, behold a low lower than any since April, below existing support, below water and taking on more at every seam. S&P lost more, 2.09%, to 2,057.64, but floated bare points above its 200 DMA (2,053.90).

Y'all stop and chew on this a moment. The Greek crisis is only a CATALYST, not a cause for this plunge. Did no weakness beforehand exist, no market would plunge. Regardless how Greece is papered over, cascades, Niagaras, Igua├žus are coming in stocks, and soon.

Today stocks traded in a tight range (138 points) and the Dow (or the NGM) managed to add 23.16 (0.13%) to 16,619.51, STILL below the 200 DMA. S&P500 added 5.47 (0.27%) to 2,063.11.

Say, did I mention to y'all that the Shanghai Stock Exchange fell 3.3% yesterday? Or that it as of yesterday's close it had fallen 21.5% since 12 June? I am so forgetful. Never mind European stock markets.

Dow in Gold
Dow in gold has fallen away from the top Gator Jaw, through the hand-holding 20 and 50 DMAs, and clean down to the uptrend line from August 2013. It is about to break through that. Today it rose 0.77%, just fishhooked up a little, to G$310.70 gold dollars (15.03 troy ounces), nearer the 200 DMA. Take a gander at the chart on the right:

Dow in Silver didn't quite hit its upper Gator Jaw, but has now broken its uptrend. Closed today up 0.71% at S$1,454.25 silver dollars (1,124.77 troy ounces). Chart's on the left:

Both indicators are blowing the klaxon: ABANDON STOCKS!
USD Index

Today the US dollar index rose 71 basis points (0.75%) to 95.66, safely tamed from yesterday's impulse to escape, and above both short term moving averages. If y'all want to see the Invisible Hand at work, chart on right. Euro lost 0.9% today to $1,1138. Ready to fall off the face of the earth. Yen jumped up today, gapped up yesterday, and has a little rally up out of that pit whereinto it had fallen. Closed up 0.07% at 81.65.

US treasury yields remain high. 10 year treasury note fell below its 20 DMA yesterday, but made up much of that loss today. 30 year bond punched into its uptrend line yesterday, but came back a little today. Overall bonds have been falling and yields rising since 1 February. I hope Janet Yellen has stocked in a good supply of industrial strength anti-perspirant.

Dad blast it, I disremembered something else! Anent Puerto Rico, do y'all think that's the only governmental entity in the US with debt problems? Jefferson County Alabama (Birmingham) sank in the largest municipal bankruptcy in history, Detroit is in bankruptcy, Chicago is teetering, California (I will bet small money without looking) ain't in great shape, and how many others are hiding in the woodwork? Don't it just make you tingle with joy to know you are surrounded by such magnificent examples of financial management?

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Monday, June 29, 2015

The Gold Price Rose $5.60 Ending at $1,178.50

29-June-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,178.505.600.12%
Silver Price, $/oz15.66-0.07-0.45%
Gold/Silver Ratio75.240.700.93%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Friday, June 26, 2015

The Price of Gold Rose $1.40 Ending the Week at $1,172.90

26-June-15PriceChange% Change
Gold Price, $/oz1,172.901.400.12%
Silver Price, $/oz15.74-0.07-0.44%
Gold/Silver Ratio74.540.420.56%

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
Franklin didn't publish commentary today, if he publishes later it will be available here.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.

Thursday, June 25, 2015

The Price of Gold Shaved Off $1.10 Today Closing at $1,171.50

18-Jun-1525-Jun-15Change% Change
Gold Price, $/oz.1,201.501,171.50-30.00-2.5
Silver Price, $/oz.16.14815.8080.34-2.1
Gold/Silver Ratio74.40574.108-0.297-0.4
Silver/gold ratio0.01340.01350.00010.4
Dow in Gold $ (DIG$)311.68315.694.001.3
Dow in gold ounces15.0815.270.191.3
Dow in Silver ounces1,121.861,131.739.870.9
Dow Industrials18,115.8417,890.36-225.48-1.2
S&P5002,124.242,102.31-21.93-1.0
US dollar index94.2495.391.151.2
Platinum Price1,082.501,084.401.900.2
Palladium Price718.60679.15-39.45-5.5

3 Day Gold Price Chart
30 Day Gold Price Chart
5 Year Gold Price Chart
3 Day Silver Price Chart
30 Day Silver Price Chart
5 Year Silver Price Chart
SILVER and GOLD PRICES won't break down, but they won't break up, either. The price of gold shaved off $1.10 today closing at $1,171.50. Silver gave up 4.5 cents for a $15.808 Comex close.

Yes, it was a rotten week for the GOLD PRICE. It lost 2.5% or $30. Silver lost 34 cents or 2.1%. But most of that loss fell on Monday for the price of gold, and Tuesday for the silver price.

If the gold price closes below its last low, $1,162.10, then it will drop to someplace between there and $1,141.60. A lot of folks are expecting a big drop, say to $1,100 or lower. I don't see it. One reason is the buying support I suspect lurks just under this market. This week we have seen serious buyers come back with large orders. I don't solicit business, so this is spontaneous. So maybe the gold price sees a fast spike down, but not too long and not too far. Up above gold does nothing -- it's all meaningless noise -- until it climbs above $1,205.

What will a resolution in Greece do to the price of gold? If Greece doesn't leave the euro, nothing much. Oh, gold might drop a little on the news, but all that safe-haven demand has been beaten out of gold, no doubt by the Nice Government Men, scared to death the Greek crisis might precipitate a enlightenment of the Mushrooms and a stampede into gold. If Greek did leave the euro, the gold price would get a boost. How long that lasts depends on the knock on effects of the Grexit.

The SILVER PRICE keeps holding on above $15.50, where there's lateral support. Break that and silver might crumple to $14.50 in a sudden spike, as suddenly over. Overhead silver must climb over $16.40 to make any difference.

June and July are the time of the year for seasonal lows in silver and gold prices. I suspect those lows will be made by 15 July.

I'm closing the week early because I'm driving down to Alabama tomorrow with my son to look at Southpoll cows. God willing, I'll be back on Monday.

Dead and directionless markets. Silver and gold price rallies failed this week and metals tumbled. Stock market volatility continues, as stocks can't hold on to gains and rallies quickly become routs. End is near. US dollar index is undecided. Greek cloud still hangs over the market, blocking big moves.

Stocks had a plumb rotten day. Dow lost 75.71 (0.42%) and closed below its 20 DMA. Point to watch is 17,700, which roughly coincides with the 200 DMA at 17,670.34. Stocks right now are pointed down, but could still rally as high as 18,400. This shouldn't last much longer. A close below the 200 DMA could be the trigger an avalanche.

Dow gave up 6.27 (0.3%) to 2,102.31. It too, closed below the 20 DMA tripwire. A close below 2,075 will bring trouble. Rally as high as 2140 is possible, but next move will be down. Earlier in the week the Dow in gold peeked through the top gator jaw of that broadening top, but today closed again beneath it at 15.26 oz, down 0.27%.

Dow in silver never reached that top jaw before it turned down. Ended down 0.14% today at 1,131.94. This latest attempt by stocks to push up out of the gator jaws has failed, more evidence stocks are rolling over against metals.

I am inclined to expect that the Greeks will not exit the euro. Not that Greece itself is that big and important, but its exit is just the point of a needle that the European balloon can't stand. If Greece left, others might get ideas.

US dollar tried to rally but now has stalled at the 50 DMA. Again, market is waiting for Greece cloud to lift so they know which way to lean. Euro lost 0.01% to $1.1204. Yen gained 0.2% to 80.88. Meaningless for both.

The bond bubble may have begun to burst. The 10 year treasury yield is bumping against the downtrend from 2007 and has staged a SERIOUS rally since 1 February, from 1.651% to 2.393%. 30 year bond yield has risen from 2.226% to 3.156% and is way above the 200 DMA (2.836%). When those yields start rising in earnest, the Fed is going to have a basement flooded with sewage, and find out just how clever they are at pumping.

Y'all enjoy your weekend.

Aurum et argentum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
The-MoneyChanger.com

© 2015, The Moneychanger. May not be republished in any form, including electronically, without our express permission. To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold or 18 ounces of silver. or 18 ounces of silver. US $ and US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate bubble has burst, primary trend down.

WARNING AND DISCLAIMER. Be advised and warned:

Do NOT use these commentaries to trade futures contracts. I don't intend them for that or write them with that short term trading outlook. I write them for long-term investors in physical metals. Take them as entertainment, but not as a timing service for futures.

NOR do I recommend investing in gold or silver Exchange Trade Funds (ETFs). Those are NOT physical metal and I fear one day one or another may go up in smoke. Unless you can breathe smoke, stay away. Call me paranoid, but the surviving rabbit is wary of traps.

NOR do I recommend trading futures options or other leveraged paper gold and silver products. These are not for the inexperienced.

NOR do I recommend buying gold and silver on margin or with debt.

What DO I recommend? Physical gold and silver coins and bars in your own hands.

One final warning: NEVER insert a 747 Jumbo Jet up your nose.