Thursday, October 05, 2006

Gold Price Fell Down to Support at 560

My, O, my, the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS broke out to the upside of a bearish rising wedge. It blew through the previous G$415 (20.07 troy ounce) high and closed at G$435.90 (21.09 oz), whizzing past the G$425 (20.56 oz.) resistance area I had expected would stop it.

What does it mean? It could be the flow-out top of the wedge, and if so will collapse in the next day or so. Or, it could run to the next resistance at G$446 (21.58 oz) to G$454 (21.96 oz), or it could even run all the way to G$475 (22.98 oz.). What does that imply for the gold price? If the Dow went to 12,000, a DiG$ of G$475 implies a gold price of US$522.24. I'm not saying I expect to see that price, only letting you know what the outside of the range is. Speaking whereof, if the Dow exceeds its old high by 3%, that implies a top of 12,075 (3% being the amount it could exceed that old high and remain in the realm of meaning- lessness). Since the Dow has exceeded its old high, we have to reckon with that. However, nothing has altered my sarcasm of recent days, as all this is like watching the farewell tennis game for a 60 year old Pancho Gonzalez. It may be amazing that he can play so well, but he's 60 and he's not coming back.

The GOLD PRICE fell down to support at 560.00 where all sorts of buyers came roaring out of the woodwork. There was good solid physical buying and in the aftermarket gold rose 4.80, which by itself would have been a good day's work most days. If 560 support breaks, you can expect a drop to 540 - 542. Yes, it's scary and roils your stomach (Where's that wastebasket? I need to puke!) but times like this separate successful investors from the unsuccessful investors. Can you choke down some Pepto-Bismol and buy, or will you cave?

The SILVER PRICE behaved very well, posting a 10.53 low but not staying there any time. Most of the day was spent above 1075, which, if you will cast your mind back a few weeks, was where it stopped last time. Yes, it could drop further, but today could just as well prove to be the bottom. Beneath this targets are 1040, the last intraday low, and the round number 1000. I would certainly buy some here.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.