Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Perfect Sucker Trap in Gold and Silver or Did Yesterday Mark the Bottom of the Correction?

Wow. SILVER PRICES and GOLD PRICES both advanced smartly today, but closed tantalizingly below what was needed for confirmation.

The gold price closed up 5.60 at 613.10, but needed to close over 614 (last low).

The silver price closed at 1249.80 -- right in the 1250 resistance area, but below the last close (1255) and other previous closes (1251 & 1250.8). Of course, there were also several closes in the same period at 1238 where silver turned around and headed up. Is 1249.80 too low to confirm, or, since it's above 1238, maybe that was the resistance.

Sounds like splitting hairs, but 'tisn't. This could be the perfect sucker trap before another push down (it always seems strongest in a correction right before it collapses) or yesterday might have marked the bottom of the correction. How will we know? Silver & gold prices will both close higher tomorrow.

And here's a kicker to keep in mind so that y'all do not again fall prey to the guru of press, TV screen, and internet: gold and silver rose at the same time the dollar index rose. Both rose smartly. So where's the lock-step relation, gold up/dollar down and dollar up/gold down? Nowhere. That's not to say silver & gold performance is not related to the dollar, only to point out that day by day moves, or even moves over several month, may not be directly related, and that the eroding dollar may be the chief long term cause of a silver & gold bull market, but not the only cause. Try the yen & Euro for starters, then add all the debt bubble created in Greenspan's Golden Age of the '90s.

STOCKS have traded sideways since last Thursday. A break below 12,375 will take the Dow much further down, or a break above 12, 450 would lead to a challenge of 12,550. For either party I am unenthusiastic. I'd rather swap stocks for silver & gold. Here's why: In 2006, the Dow rose 16.3%; gold rose 22.8%, and silver rose 45.3% [sic]. Clear?

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS fell again today. Stocks just can't seem to gain against gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt --
-- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.