Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Gold Needs a 667 Close and Silver 1280 to Confirm a Change in Trend

A week with a holiday tends to mess things up slightly, since all those big traders rushing out to their first martini on Long Island don't want to carry a position over the holiday, so they close out positions and take profits before they go. However, what wizard or soothsayer might be able to quantify the Rush-to-Martini effect? None yet born, so we must satisfy ourselves with suspicions.

Silver and Gold Prices
dropped today, but not for any great damage. Silver, I was pleased to see, remained above 1250, and gold comfortably above 650. This will do for now, but to confirm a change of trend we need to see closes above 1280 and 667.

The US Dollar index today rose 11 basis points, perhaps stopping its fall in the neighbourhood of that old 81.25 low. Rest of the week, or next Monday, will tell. One day doth not a trend make.

STOCKS parted company from silver & gold today, with stocks rising a little while metals fell. Stocks still look toppy to me, but need to confirm my suspicions by closing below 13,250. The Dow In Gold Dollars continued the torment today by rising back to the G$430 area, closing at G$429.88. Is it going to break down or up? I'm worn out with watching, and I don't know. What do I know? That Velveeta cheese is made out of petroleum products, or tastes like it, and that sooner or later the Dow will trade at two ounces of gold (G$41)rather than today's 20.795 oz., & upon that line I will rest. So all you I-like-to-bet-on-an-inside-straight folks hang on to those stocks, & we'll see what happens.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.