Gold Price Close Today : 862.80
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 874.2
Change: -11.40 or -1.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.502
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.54
Change: -3.8 cents or -0.2%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.61
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.85
Change: -0.24 or -0.3%
Sorry, Franklin Sanders is finishing his monthly Moneychanger newsletter today and so can't write a commentary. He wants to point out, however, that based on the aftermarket, silver and gold prices put in the first half of a key reversal upward, and the Dow put in the first half of a key reversal downward. He thinks that today's will be the lowest silver price we'll see for quite a while.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Is the End of the World for Silver and Gold Prices Coming, or Not?
Gold Price Close Today : 874.2
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 892.80
Change: -18.70 or -2.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.54
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.013
Change: -47.4 cents or -2.8%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.85
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.53
Change: 0.31 or 0.4%
On a day when the GOLD PRICE drops $18.70 to a new correction low and the SILVER PRICE drops 47.3 cents to a new correction low, it's no time to be coy. Is the end of the world for silver and gold prices coming, or not? Not.
On Friday the SILVER PRICE made a low at $16.39 and today, although it made a lower closing low at $16.54, the intraday low was slightly higher than Friday at $16.41. Mmmm. Remember also that silver has bottomed at this same area -- $16.65 - $16.80 three times already. Maybe today's close constitutes a breakdown, but if so I don't think it will carry further than $16.30. I expect silver's bottom to come this week, and it may have happened today.
The GOLD PRICE closed lower than its previous low at $882.90 (1 April), but not by much. For somebody who has been expecting a bottom anywhere between $885 and $850 (namely, me) it's not too shocking.
However, none of this can be blamed on the US DOLLAR INDEX's puny "strength." Although it closed up 31 basis points today, what does that mean in a market all expecting that the Fed will lower interest rates tomorrow another 25 basis points and make the dollar even less attractive & remunerative?
STOCKS remain frozen, dropping a few dozen points every day, unable to advance after their breakout. What gives? I don't know, but this is not strength.
I still expect to see the correction lows for silver and gold prices this week, and not later. Watch and buy. If it drops more, buy more. This is a BULL MARKET with another 8-10 years to run, and it's handing you a chance to buy ON SALE. Nothing has happened to change my outlook, and what you are seeing are normal market flucuations.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 892.80
Change: -18.70 or -2.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.54
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.013
Change: -47.4 cents or -2.8%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.85
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.53
Change: 0.31 or 0.4%
On a day when the GOLD PRICE drops $18.70 to a new correction low and the SILVER PRICE drops 47.3 cents to a new correction low, it's no time to be coy. Is the end of the world for silver and gold prices coming, or not? Not.
On Friday the SILVER PRICE made a low at $16.39 and today, although it made a lower closing low at $16.54, the intraday low was slightly higher than Friday at $16.41. Mmmm. Remember also that silver has bottomed at this same area -- $16.65 - $16.80 three times already. Maybe today's close constitutes a breakdown, but if so I don't think it will carry further than $16.30. I expect silver's bottom to come this week, and it may have happened today.
The GOLD PRICE closed lower than its previous low at $882.90 (1 April), but not by much. For somebody who has been expecting a bottom anywhere between $885 and $850 (namely, me) it's not too shocking.
However, none of this can be blamed on the US DOLLAR INDEX's puny "strength." Although it closed up 31 basis points today, what does that mean in a market all expecting that the Fed will lower interest rates tomorrow another 25 basis points and make the dollar even less attractive & remunerative?
STOCKS remain frozen, dropping a few dozen points every day, unable to advance after their breakout. What gives? I don't know, but this is not strength.
I still expect to see the correction lows for silver and gold prices this week, and not later. Watch and buy. If it drops more, buy more. This is a BULL MARKET with another 8-10 years to run, and it's handing you a chance to buy ON SALE. Nothing has happened to change my outlook, and what you are seeing are normal market flucuations.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
The-MoneyChanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Next Couple of Days Will See Attempts to Break the Gold Price Down, but I Doubt They'll Succeed
Gold Price Close Today : 892.90
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 887.20
Change: 5.70 or 0.6%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.013
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.85
Change: 16.3 cents or -1.0%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.53
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.927
Change: -0.14 or -0.2%
The more I thought about SILVER and GOLD PRICES over the weekend, the more I looked at charts and comparisons, the stronger became my tentative conclusion that the correction is either over, with the lows behind us, or nearly over. I don't think the correction will last another two months, nor do I think it is the same sort of correction we saw after the 2004 and 2006 rallies peaked.
If the SILVER PRICE didn't bottom last Thursday at $16.65, it should bottom this week, no lower than $16.30, probably not lower than $16.50. The silver price needs one more test of that $16.80 level to prove it is unbreachable. Do y'all realize that silver has already three time bounced off that level (roughly). First resistance stands at $17.20.
The GOLD doesn't seem quite as springy as silver. $895 stopped it cold today. Next couple of days will see attempts to break the gold price down, but I doubt they'll succeed. Watch, watch, and start buying a little silver and gold, just in case the bottom has already been.
STOCKS (represented by the Dow) seem awfully slow to move above 12,850. They reached today for 12,950, but fell back fecklessly to close at 12,871.75, down 20.11. Will they never move? This is an awfully stodgy rally so far.
The US DOLLAR INDEX is trying to rally with the same glacial speed as stocks. It closed above 72.50 two days running, but today closed down at 72.53. Underneath is support at 72.45.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 887.20
Change: 5.70 or 0.6%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.013
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.85
Change: 16.3 cents or -1.0%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.53
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.927
Change: -0.14 or -0.2%
The more I thought about SILVER and GOLD PRICES over the weekend, the more I looked at charts and comparisons, the stronger became my tentative conclusion that the correction is either over, with the lows behind us, or nearly over. I don't think the correction will last another two months, nor do I think it is the same sort of correction we saw after the 2004 and 2006 rallies peaked.
If the SILVER PRICE didn't bottom last Thursday at $16.65, it should bottom this week, no lower than $16.30, probably not lower than $16.50. The silver price needs one more test of that $16.80 level to prove it is unbreachable. Do y'all realize that silver has already three time bounced off that level (roughly). First resistance stands at $17.20.
The GOLD doesn't seem quite as springy as silver. $895 stopped it cold today. Next couple of days will see attempts to break the gold price down, but I doubt they'll succeed. Watch, watch, and start buying a little silver and gold, just in case the bottom has already been.
STOCKS (represented by the Dow) seem awfully slow to move above 12,850. They reached today for 12,950, but fell back fecklessly to close at 12,871.75, down 20.11. Will they never move? This is an awfully stodgy rally so far.
The US DOLLAR INDEX is trying to rally with the same glacial speed as stocks. It closed above 72.50 two days running, but today closed down at 72.53. Underneath is support at 72.45.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Friday, April 25, 2008
We Ought to be Buying Silver and Gold Right Now
Gold Price Close Today : 887.20
Gold Price Close April 18: 912.20
Change: -25.00 or -2.7%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.85
Silver Price Close April 18: 17.802
Change: -95.2 cents or -5.3%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.927
US Dollar Index April 18: 72.668
Change: 0.741 or 1.0%
Rough week for metals fans, and not much fun for others.
STOCKS fell back this week to test their breakout over 12,750 made last Friday, and only today closed above last Friday's close. Rally from here should carry as high as 14,000. Frankly, this makes good news for silver fans, because generally silver outperforms gold when the stock market is strong. Stay out of stocks.
The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS closed today at G$300.38 (14.531 troy ounces), which comes within a gnat's eyebrow of correcting the slide that began last December by 50%. The end of stocks gaining against gold? May be. At any rate, it hints that stocks do not have much more room to rise against gold. If so, and if stocks are rallying, then gold ought to be near rallying as well.
The US DOLLAR INDEX finally closed above 72.50 yesterday, and confirmed that close today with a higher close -- not much higher, it's true, but higher by 13 basis points. Look for a rally over the next 2-6 months, probably to 75. Euro could drop to $1.465. A rising dollar is not fatal to silver and gold prices by any means, just not favourable.
SILVER and GOLD PRICES have performed much differently than they did at their 2004 and 2006 peaks. Since neither reached the overbought peaks of 2004 and 2006, and since the GOLD/SILVER RATIO has not made a new bear market low, I have to conclude that this is a larger correction than I thought at first, but the rally for metals has not ended.
This contradicts the usual seasonal pattern, though, which calls for lows in June - July, and rising prices into October-November. Some years patterns are reversed, although I can't ever recall seeing silver and gold price yearly highs in June - July.
So the most likely outcome is lows then, with strongly rising prices into the fall. If that's true, then we ought to be buying silver and gold right now. Since the silver price fell 4 out of the last six days by at least 46 cents each day, we are somewhere very close to the bottom.
Support for the silver price lies at $16.80 (near today's closes) and $16.30. The gold price might stop here, leaving a double bottom with the April low at $882.90, or drop to $850 or even $800. Whatever lows they log, they will most likely occur next week -- if we haven't seen them already this week.
About now the croakers and Wall Street cheerleaders-for-hire will begin bad-mouthing silver and gold, and you'll see all sorts of headlines stoutly proclaiming "Metals bull markets dead!" If you need something to wrap fish in, that would work well, but as a conclusion about reality, it's not worth much. The bull markets in silver and gold have 8 - 10 years to run. Keep your eyes on that horizon, and keep singing to yourself, "A rising tide lifts all boats!"
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close April 18: 912.20
Change: -25.00 or -2.7%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.85
Silver Price Close April 18: 17.802
Change: -95.2 cents or -5.3%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.927
US Dollar Index April 18: 72.668
Change: 0.741 or 1.0%
Rough week for metals fans, and not much fun for others.
STOCKS fell back this week to test their breakout over 12,750 made last Friday, and only today closed above last Friday's close. Rally from here should carry as high as 14,000. Frankly, this makes good news for silver fans, because generally silver outperforms gold when the stock market is strong. Stay out of stocks.
The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS closed today at G$300.38 (14.531 troy ounces), which comes within a gnat's eyebrow of correcting the slide that began last December by 50%. The end of stocks gaining against gold? May be. At any rate, it hints that stocks do not have much more room to rise against gold. If so, and if stocks are rallying, then gold ought to be near rallying as well.
The US DOLLAR INDEX finally closed above 72.50 yesterday, and confirmed that close today with a higher close -- not much higher, it's true, but higher by 13 basis points. Look for a rally over the next 2-6 months, probably to 75. Euro could drop to $1.465. A rising dollar is not fatal to silver and gold prices by any means, just not favourable.
SILVER and GOLD PRICES have performed much differently than they did at their 2004 and 2006 peaks. Since neither reached the overbought peaks of 2004 and 2006, and since the GOLD/SILVER RATIO has not made a new bear market low, I have to conclude that this is a larger correction than I thought at first, but the rally for metals has not ended.
This contradicts the usual seasonal pattern, though, which calls for lows in June - July, and rising prices into October-November. Some years patterns are reversed, although I can't ever recall seeing silver and gold price yearly highs in June - July.
So the most likely outcome is lows then, with strongly rising prices into the fall. If that's true, then we ought to be buying silver and gold right now. Since the silver price fell 4 out of the last six days by at least 46 cents each day, we are somewhere very close to the bottom.
Support for the silver price lies at $16.80 (near today's closes) and $16.30. The gold price might stop here, leaving a double bottom with the April low at $882.90, or drop to $850 or even $800. Whatever lows they log, they will most likely occur next week -- if we haven't seen them already this week.
About now the croakers and Wall Street cheerleaders-for-hire will begin bad-mouthing silver and gold, and you'll see all sorts of headlines stoutly proclaiming "Metals bull markets dead!" If you need something to wrap fish in, that would work well, but as a conclusion about reality, it's not worth much. The bull markets in silver and gold have 8 - 10 years to run. Keep your eyes on that horizon, and keep singing to yourself, "A rising tide lifts all boats!"
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Gold and Silver Will Come Back - Just be Patient
Gold Price Close Today : 886.80
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 906.2
Change: -19.40 or -2.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.652
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.155
Change: -50.3 cents or -2.9%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.54
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 71.84
Change: 0.72 or 1.0%
After a confusing and confounding back & forth, the US DOLLAR INDEX today rose to, yea, even crossed 72.5. Assuming it can hold that gain tomorrow, it should begin a rally that will last several months. A rising dollar and rising stocks -- and who knows what all else -- hammered silver and gold prices today.
The GOLD PRICE posted a low of $882.70, and closed not far from that low at $886.80.
The SILVER PRICE fell as low as $16.63 and closed at $16.6520, down $50.30. And talk about volatility. Of the last 7 trading days, the silver price has moved more than 35 cents all but one, and has moved form than 46 cents on five days -- down over 50 cents each of the last two days. Don't y'all think that about finishes it? The silver price could still drop to $16.30, and on a very bad day $15.20, but turnaround should come soon.
Watch for the gold price to fall as low as $850. The April 1 low was $882.90, so that's another possibility. Just wait until both metals settle down.
Stocks made a minor gain today, back to their last high. More interesting was that stocks made a new high against gold, the Dow in Gold Dollars closing at G$299.52 (14.489 oz). It appears headed for G$305 (15.062 oz).
Time to remind silver and gold investors what the great H.L. Hunt once said: "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." They'll come back. Just be patient.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 906.2
Change: -19.40 or -2.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.652
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.155
Change: -50.3 cents or -2.9%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.54
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 71.84
Change: 0.72 or 1.0%
After a confusing and confounding back & forth, the US DOLLAR INDEX today rose to, yea, even crossed 72.5. Assuming it can hold that gain tomorrow, it should begin a rally that will last several months. A rising dollar and rising stocks -- and who knows what all else -- hammered silver and gold prices today.
The GOLD PRICE posted a low of $882.70, and closed not far from that low at $886.80.
The SILVER PRICE fell as low as $16.63 and closed at $16.6520, down $50.30. And talk about volatility. Of the last 7 trading days, the silver price has moved more than 35 cents all but one, and has moved form than 46 cents on five days -- down over 50 cents each of the last two days. Don't y'all think that about finishes it? The silver price could still drop to $16.30, and on a very bad day $15.20, but turnaround should come soon.
Watch for the gold price to fall as low as $850. The April 1 low was $882.90, so that's another possibility. Just wait until both metals settle down.
Stocks made a minor gain today, back to their last high. More interesting was that stocks made a new high against gold, the Dow in Gold Dollars closing at G$299.52 (14.489 oz). It appears headed for G$305 (15.062 oz).
Time to remind silver and gold investors what the great H.L. Hunt once said: "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." They'll come back. Just be patient.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
The Silver and Gold Price Correction Shouldn't Last More Than the Next 5 Days
Gold Price Close Today : 906.20
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 922.30
Change: -16.1 or -1.7%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.155
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.698
Change: -54.3 cents or -3.1%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.84
Change: 0.48 or 0.7%
When GOLD PRICE broke through $914 today, the bottom just fell out, and it hit a low of $896.55. However, it closed above that $904 level I was watching yesterday, at $906.20. Still, this leaves things up in the air. The apex of the November-December 2007 triangle lies at $800, so that's a possible target. The 200 day moving average lies at $815, that's another. Above that lies strong support around $850, which seems a more likely target to me, assuming (that is) the gold price drops through $900.
The SILVER PRICE took a slightly rougher blow than the gold price today, dropping 54.3 cents to close at $17.155. Assuming it breaks $17.00, possible targets are $16.80, $16.30, and the 200 DMA at $15.20. Y'all will notice that I didn't say which target I thought it would hit. (1) I don't think either metal has a lot farther to drop, so that's a max of $850 for gold and $16.30 for silver. (2) The correction shouldn't last more than the next 5 days.
Tough minded investors can buy now, but I would prefer waiting a day or so to see how things pan out.
STOCKS seem to have lost focus & steam after breaking through 12,750, but I would surely be surprised if they stopped here. Surely stocks have more upside? Balance favours higher stock prices.
US DOLLAR INDEX rose 48 basis points to close at a magisterial 71.843. Hogwash. It just can't get out of its range. I call that weak.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 922.30
Change: -16.1 or -1.7%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.155
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.698
Change: -54.3 cents or -3.1%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.84
Change: 0.48 or 0.7%
When GOLD PRICE broke through $914 today, the bottom just fell out, and it hit a low of $896.55. However, it closed above that $904 level I was watching yesterday, at $906.20. Still, this leaves things up in the air. The apex of the November-December 2007 triangle lies at $800, so that's a possible target. The 200 day moving average lies at $815, that's another. Above that lies strong support around $850, which seems a more likely target to me, assuming (that is) the gold price drops through $900.
The SILVER PRICE took a slightly rougher blow than the gold price today, dropping 54.3 cents to close at $17.155. Assuming it breaks $17.00, possible targets are $16.80, $16.30, and the 200 DMA at $15.20. Y'all will notice that I didn't say which target I thought it would hit. (1) I don't think either metal has a lot farther to drop, so that's a max of $850 for gold and $16.30 for silver. (2) The correction shouldn't last more than the next 5 days.
Tough minded investors can buy now, but I would prefer waiting a day or so to see how things pan out.
STOCKS seem to have lost focus & steam after breaking through 12,750, but I would surely be surprised if they stopped here. Surely stocks have more upside? Balance favours higher stock prices.
US DOLLAR INDEX rose 48 basis points to close at a magisterial 71.843. Hogwash. It just can't get out of its range. I call that weak.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Reverse Head and Shoulders in the Gold Price
Gold Price Close Today : 922.30
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 914.70
Change: 7.60 or 0.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.698
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.342
Change: 35.6 cents or 2.1%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.36
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.65
Change: -0.28 or -0.4%
A reader asked me to explain what I meant by a "reverse head and shoulders." That's a formation with three bottoms, the middle usually deeper than the others. The corrections from those bottoms rise to roughly the same line, called a neckline. The whole formation looks like an upside down "head and shoulders." It's a rather reliable sign that a market has bottomed, just as a right-side-up head & shoulders is a reliable topping formation.
See the point of the left shoulder at $904.70, the point of the head at $876.30, and the bottom of the right shoulder at $907.30. Neckline stretches from $960.30 to $956.20. A new low lower than $904 would contradict my reverse head and shoulders interpretation.
I just don't know what to make of the US DOLLAR INDEX. Sooner or later it ought to rally, just to contradict such a universally negative outlook, but it cannot rise higher than 72.50 and has today broken to a marginal new closing low at 71.32. If it breaks down from here it will fall a long, long ways. It made a similar low four days ago. If these bottoms hold, then that's the dollar building a footing for a rally, but a lower close turns the outlook bleak for the dollar.
Stocks today are only touching back to their breakout point and should rise tomorrow. By the way, after the January low the Dow traced out a "reverse head and shoulders," although it's not very plain. Neckline was around 12,750. Head and Shoulders target equals the distance from neckline to head, added to the neckline, in this case 1,318 + 12,750, or 14,068
Aha, does that mean I am turning friendly to stocks? No more than you would welcome a long term house guest with stinky feet and bad table manners. Stocks will keep on underperforming silver and gold price badly for the next 8-10 years.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 914.70
Change: 7.60 or 0.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.698
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.342
Change: 35.6 cents or 2.1%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.36
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.65
Change: -0.28 or -0.4%
A reader asked me to explain what I meant by a "reverse head and shoulders." That's a formation with three bottoms, the middle usually deeper than the others. The corrections from those bottoms rise to roughly the same line, called a neckline. The whole formation looks like an upside down "head and shoulders." It's a rather reliable sign that a market has bottomed, just as a right-side-up head & shoulders is a reliable topping formation.
See the point of the left shoulder at $904.70, the point of the head at $876.30, and the bottom of the right shoulder at $907.30. Neckline stretches from $960.30 to $956.20. A new low lower than $904 would contradict my reverse head and shoulders interpretation.I just don't know what to make of the US DOLLAR INDEX. Sooner or later it ought to rally, just to contradict such a universally negative outlook, but it cannot rise higher than 72.50 and has today broken to a marginal new closing low at 71.32. If it breaks down from here it will fall a long, long ways. It made a similar low four days ago. If these bottoms hold, then that's the dollar building a footing for a rally, but a lower close turns the outlook bleak for the dollar.
Stocks today are only touching back to their breakout point and should rise tomorrow. By the way, after the January low the Dow traced out a "reverse head and shoulders," although it's not very plain. Neckline was around 12,750. Head and Shoulders target equals the distance from neckline to head, added to the neckline, in this case 1,318 + 12,750, or 14,068Aha, does that mean I am turning friendly to stocks? No more than you would welcome a long term house guest with stinky feet and bad table manners. Stocks will keep on underperforming silver and gold price badly for the next 8-10 years.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Dow in Gold Dollars and the Gold/Silver Ratio Say Silver and Gold Prices Should Rise
Gold Price Close Today : 914.70
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 912.20
Change: 2.50 or 0.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.342
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.802
Change: -46 cents or 2.6%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.65
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.927
Change: -0.28 or -0.4%
Sometimes it helps to try to read one market through other markets, sort of like reading a book in a mirror. Today I'm looking at the Dow in Gold Dollars and the Gold/Silver Ratio.
Stocks have probably bottomed and are launching a rally that will last several months, judging by their breakout last week above 12,750 resistance. However, against gold, stocks have done nothing of the kind. Rather, they have behaved exactly as they did during the long period in 2006 when stocks threatened and huffed and puffed, but in correcting their long drop against gold, never managed to reach even the halfway point of the fall. So today the DiG$ is trading down along a descending trend line without breaking through to the upside. Well, if stocks are rising, but stocks measured in gold are not rising, that strongly hints that gold is not about to take a nosedive. In fact, it hints that gold is about to rise faster than stocks. So our first read-it-in-the-mirror witness says gold ought to go higher.
The Gold/Silver ratio is another contrary witness. The Ratio broke down earlier this year, then corrected upward, and now has entered one of those nail-biting frustrating sideways triangles. However, looking at the whole cart, it is difficult for me to conclude that the next breakout in the ratio will be to the upside.
So if the ratio is headed lower, what does that say about silver and gold prices? Ratio bottoms usually occur at the same time, or slightly before, the silver and gold prices price highs. So this mirror points up, too.
Finally, what about the US DOLLAR INDEX? Won't a rising dollar send silver and gold swimming upstream? But the dollar can't break through 72.50. It reaches for the over-72 area, but cannot hold on. No tidal wave against silver and gold coming from that direction soon.
The SILVER PRICE low today was $17.25, but it closed at $17.342. As long as it stays above $16.80, it will be all right. Any close below that means the silver price has more downside suffering. The GOLD PRICE needs to stay above $904, to keep intact a reverse head and shoulders bottoming formation that may be forming. All things considered, I'm still buying silver and gold. Right now.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 912.20
Change: 2.50 or 0.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.342
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.802
Change: -46 cents or 2.6%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.65
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.927
Change: -0.28 or -0.4%
Sometimes it helps to try to read one market through other markets, sort of like reading a book in a mirror. Today I'm looking at the Dow in Gold Dollars and the Gold/Silver Ratio.
Stocks have probably bottomed and are launching a rally that will last several months, judging by their breakout last week above 12,750 resistance. However, against gold, stocks have done nothing of the kind. Rather, they have behaved exactly as they did during the long period in 2006 when stocks threatened and huffed and puffed, but in correcting their long drop against gold, never managed to reach even the halfway point of the fall. So today the DiG$ is trading down along a descending trend line without breaking through to the upside. Well, if stocks are rising, but stocks measured in gold are not rising, that strongly hints that gold is not about to take a nosedive. In fact, it hints that gold is about to rise faster than stocks. So our first read-it-in-the-mirror witness says gold ought to go higher.
The Gold/Silver ratio is another contrary witness. The Ratio broke down earlier this year, then corrected upward, and now has entered one of those nail-biting frustrating sideways triangles. However, looking at the whole cart, it is difficult for me to conclude that the next breakout in the ratio will be to the upside.So if the ratio is headed lower, what does that say about silver and gold prices? Ratio bottoms usually occur at the same time, or slightly before, the silver and gold prices price highs. So this mirror points up, too.
Finally, what about the US DOLLAR INDEX? Won't a rising dollar send silver and gold swimming upstream? But the dollar can't break through 72.50. It reaches for the over-72 area, but cannot hold on. No tidal wave against silver and gold coming from that direction soon.
The SILVER PRICE low today was $17.25, but it closed at $17.342. As long as it stays above $16.80, it will be all right. Any close below that means the silver price has more downside suffering. The GOLD PRICE needs to stay above $904, to keep intact a reverse head and shoulders bottoming formation that may be forming. All things considered, I'm still buying silver and gold. Right now.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Next Week Gold and Silver Will Have to Work Hard, But Higher Silver and Gold Prices are Coming
Gold Price Close Today : 912.20
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 923.60
Change: -11.40 or -1.2%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.802
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.668
Change: 13.40 cents or 0.8%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.927
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.902
Change: 0.025 or 0%
Talked to one of my readers, Banjo Bill, today. He said he reckoned Ben Bernanke must be reading my daily commentaries, since every time I say silver and gold prices are going to rise strongly, they fall. You reckon Bernanke really is reading 'em? If so, "Hi, Ben! Give it up!"
This really looks odd -- silver and gold took a big hit and dropped today, but silver remains higher than last Friday, although gold is 11.40 lower. The dollar climbed a tad, but really performed poorly today. Stocks finally broke out to the upside.
The SILVER PRICE dropped 48.5 cents today to close at $17.802 and the GOLD PRICE dropped $27.60 to US$912.20. Catastrophe? Not really, when you look at it on the chart. Took them both back under their 50 day moving averages. Next week Gold and Silver will have to work hard, but higher silver and gold prices are coming.
My, my, O my! If I believed in conspiracies -- but my mind's pure as the driven snow, and I only think what the government and Wall Street tell me to think -- I would think it strange that on the selfsame day that the Dow finally broke out to the upside, somebody dropped a safe on silver and gold from the 34th floor. Twas almost as if somebody worked it that way. Nawww.
Keep holding on. Silver and gold prices are going higher still, despite today's disappointment. Get your banjo out and play a sprightly tune, and forget that Monday, Wall Street opens up and the whole turmoil begins all over.
Stocks have come back again and again to 12,750 without breaking through. Today they broke through, and will probably reach the 200 day moving average (now 13,100) before the story's told. Whooo-- does this mean we ought to sell everything and buy stocks? Not with my money, or even with yours. Stocks are in a LONG TERM BEAR market against value, namely, silver and gold, regardless what they do in nominal terms, they will drop against silver and gold for years to come.
The US DOLLAR traced out a strange day -- rose like a rocket to 72.40, then fell like a rocket to close around 72. It has made three roughly equal bottoms, so a rally will come sometime, buy not quite yet.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 923.60
Change: -11.40 or -1.2%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.802
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.668
Change: 13.40 cents or 0.8%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.927
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.902
Change: 0.025 or 0%
Talked to one of my readers, Banjo Bill, today. He said he reckoned Ben Bernanke must be reading my daily commentaries, since every time I say silver and gold prices are going to rise strongly, they fall. You reckon Bernanke really is reading 'em? If so, "Hi, Ben! Give it up!"
This really looks odd -- silver and gold took a big hit and dropped today, but silver remains higher than last Friday, although gold is 11.40 lower. The dollar climbed a tad, but really performed poorly today. Stocks finally broke out to the upside.
The SILVER PRICE dropped 48.5 cents today to close at $17.802 and the GOLD PRICE dropped $27.60 to US$912.20. Catastrophe? Not really, when you look at it on the chart. Took them both back under their 50 day moving averages. Next week Gold and Silver will have to work hard, but higher silver and gold prices are coming.
My, my, O my! If I believed in conspiracies -- but my mind's pure as the driven snow, and I only think what the government and Wall Street tell me to think -- I would think it strange that on the selfsame day that the Dow finally broke out to the upside, somebody dropped a safe on silver and gold from the 34th floor. Twas almost as if somebody worked it that way. Nawww.
Keep holding on. Silver and gold prices are going higher still, despite today's disappointment. Get your banjo out and play a sprightly tune, and forget that Monday, Wall Street opens up and the whole turmoil begins all over.
Stocks have come back again and again to 12,750 without breaking through. Today they broke through, and will probably reach the 200 day moving average (now 13,100) before the story's told. Whooo-- does this mean we ought to sell everything and buy stocks? Not with my money, or even with yours. Stocks are in a LONG TERM BEAR market against value, namely, silver and gold, regardless what they do in nominal terms, they will drop against silver and gold for years to come.
The US DOLLAR traced out a strange day -- rose like a rocket to 72.40, then fell like a rocket to close around 72. It has made three roughly equal bottoms, so a rally will come sometime, buy not quite yet.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Buy Silver and Gold - Higher Silver and Gold Prices, Much Higher, are Coming Soon
Gold Price Close Today : 945.10
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 928.70
Change: 16.40 or 1.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.305
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.830
Change: 47.5 cents or 2.7%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.42
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.02
Change: -0.60 or -0.8%
Today was a touchback day, when markets that yesterday broke out (gold prices, silver prices, even stocks) touched back to find their feet before they move forward.
The GOLD PRICE gave up $5.30 today, but remained above that $925-$930 resistance/support. It closed about a dollar below the 50 DMA. Leaves you gnawing on your nails up to your elbows, but it's all right. Tomorrow the gold price will challenge $950.
The SILVER PRICE dropped 1.80 cents to 1828.70, but this was to be expected. Tomorrow silver should rise again. I would buy silver and gold. Higher silver and gold prices, much higher, are coming soon.
Stocks didn't actually decline, they just stopped to breathe -- and breathe hard they must, contemplating the 12,750 fence they so far have been unable to climb. Here's something that gives you faith in the unmanipulated purity of the stock market. Yesterday, on the day when the oil price hit a new all time high of US$115, the Dow Transportation average rose 190 points! Wow. They must not use gasoline or diesel, those transportation stocks. People make fun of my pointing to the Nice Government Men behind the curtain as "conspiracy theory", but how do they explain such anomalous and self-contradictory movements? Nature? Aliens? The market? Yet for all the NGM's resuscitation, the stock market keeps sagging. Stay out of stocks, get out of stocks.
The US DOLLAR INDEX rose today 28 basis points. No point in commenting on it. If it breaks out downside there's no telling where it will end, and upside it has to beat 72.50. In between is just marking time.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 928.70
Change: 16.40 or 1.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.305
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.830
Change: 47.5 cents or 2.7%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.42
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.02
Change: -0.60 or -0.8%
Today was a touchback day, when markets that yesterday broke out (gold prices, silver prices, even stocks) touched back to find their feet before they move forward.
The GOLD PRICE gave up $5.30 today, but remained above that $925-$930 resistance/support. It closed about a dollar below the 50 DMA. Leaves you gnawing on your nails up to your elbows, but it's all right. Tomorrow the gold price will challenge $950.
The SILVER PRICE dropped 1.80 cents to 1828.70, but this was to be expected. Tomorrow silver should rise again. I would buy silver and gold. Higher silver and gold prices, much higher, are coming soon.
Stocks didn't actually decline, they just stopped to breathe -- and breathe hard they must, contemplating the 12,750 fence they so far have been unable to climb. Here's something that gives you faith in the unmanipulated purity of the stock market. Yesterday, on the day when the oil price hit a new all time high of US$115, the Dow Transportation average rose 190 points! Wow. They must not use gasoline or diesel, those transportation stocks. People make fun of my pointing to the Nice Government Men behind the curtain as "conspiracy theory", but how do they explain such anomalous and self-contradictory movements? Nature? Aliens? The market? Yet for all the NGM's resuscitation, the stock market keeps sagging. Stay out of stocks, get out of stocks.
The US DOLLAR INDEX rose today 28 basis points. No point in commenting on it. If it breaks out downside there's no telling where it will end, and upside it has to beat 72.50. In between is just marking time.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Gold and Silver Broke Out Upside
Gold Price Close Today : 945.10
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 928.70
Change: 16.40 or 1.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.305
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.830
Change: 47.5 cents or 2.7%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.42
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.02
Change: -0.60 or -0.8%
In a fallen world, Murphy's law rules, so it came as no surprise that yesterday, when for the first time ever I didn't comment closely on the markets, turned out to be the day before gold and silver broke out upside. 'Twas okay, because I had been warning y'all it was going to happen. Y'all had plenty of time to buy.
The GOLD PRICE breakout today took it above its last high close, over its 50 day moving average ($939.41), and the $925-$930 resistance. It has traced out a series of higher highs, and higher lows. My friend Bob L. called today all excited and said that as long as the gold price gets over $980 it will take off. Certainly US$1,000 will be a tough mountain to climb, but remember, I have been expecting the rally to resume. Here 'tis.
While the gold price climbed 1.8% today, the silver price leapt 2.7%. That takes it 1.5 points from crossing over its 50 DMA, and in position to o'erleap the 50% correction of the last fall, $18.715. This looks like the silver price broke out of a flat-topped triangle. Trouble will come around $19.30, although $18.50 or so will offer minor roadblocks. If the silver price gets through $19.30 and $21.30, look out.
What happens if the gold price fails at $980 and silver at $19.30? Then a big correction follows that takes gold back to 800 bucks. However, that is not what I expect. Rather, I am looking for silver and gold prices to extend their rallies that began last August. We're back in business.
This morning I heard on National Pretend Radio (NPR) that the dollar had made a new all time low, against the Euro, but the Dollar Index did not follow. What an exquisite joke! The sorry-good-for-nothing fiat Euro -- even less backed by gold than the US Dollar and racked by inward tensions (Spain and Italy are trying hard to stage their own mortgage collapse and depression) that will blow it apart -- is slapping the once-almighty-but-now-sorry-good-for-nothing Dollar around the block.
Dollar's not as bad as the Euro, in fact, and looks ready for a turnaround to me. This last gasp weakness (topping Euro strength) helps silver and gold, though.
The Dow closed up 260 points today, making another in a series of higher lows -- in other words, an uptrend. However, STOCKS have been blocked thrice already at about 12,750. More times a market knocks on a resistance area, more likely it is to break through. Maybe this time for stocks. That said, stay out of stocks. Stocks are in a long term bear market and will keep on losing value against silver and gold. Sell stocks and put proceeds into metals.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 928.70
Change: 16.40 or 1.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.305
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.830
Change: 47.5 cents or 2.7%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.42
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.02
Change: -0.60 or -0.8%
In a fallen world, Murphy's law rules, so it came as no surprise that yesterday, when for the first time ever I didn't comment closely on the markets, turned out to be the day before gold and silver broke out upside. 'Twas okay, because I had been warning y'all it was going to happen. Y'all had plenty of time to buy.
The GOLD PRICE breakout today took it above its last high close, over its 50 day moving average ($939.41), and the $925-$930 resistance. It has traced out a series of higher highs, and higher lows. My friend Bob L. called today all excited and said that as long as the gold price gets over $980 it will take off. Certainly US$1,000 will be a tough mountain to climb, but remember, I have been expecting the rally to resume. Here 'tis.
While the gold price climbed 1.8% today, the silver price leapt 2.7%. That takes it 1.5 points from crossing over its 50 DMA, and in position to o'erleap the 50% correction of the last fall, $18.715. This looks like the silver price broke out of a flat-topped triangle. Trouble will come around $19.30, although $18.50 or so will offer minor roadblocks. If the silver price gets through $19.30 and $21.30, look out.
What happens if the gold price fails at $980 and silver at $19.30? Then a big correction follows that takes gold back to 800 bucks. However, that is not what I expect. Rather, I am looking for silver and gold prices to extend their rallies that began last August. We're back in business.
This morning I heard on National Pretend Radio (NPR) that the dollar had made a new all time low, against the Euro, but the Dollar Index did not follow. What an exquisite joke! The sorry-good-for-nothing fiat Euro -- even less backed by gold than the US Dollar and racked by inward tensions (Spain and Italy are trying hard to stage their own mortgage collapse and depression) that will blow it apart -- is slapping the once-almighty-but-now-sorry-good-for-nothing Dollar around the block.
Dollar's not as bad as the Euro, in fact, and looks ready for a turnaround to me. This last gasp weakness (topping Euro strength) helps silver and gold, though.
The Dow closed up 260 points today, making another in a series of higher lows -- in other words, an uptrend. However, STOCKS have been blocked thrice already at about 12,750. More times a market knocks on a resistance area, more likely it is to break through. Maybe this time for stocks. That said, stay out of stocks. Stocks are in a long term bear market and will keep on losing value against silver and gold. Sell stocks and put proceeds into metals.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Will Gold Deflate Seriously During a Recession or Depression?
Gold Price Close Today : 928.70
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 925.40
Change: 3.3 or 0.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.830
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.768
Change: 6.2 cents or 0.3%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.02
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 71.861
Change: 0.15 or 0.2%
Since these sideways markets are so dull, I'll liven things up a little. A reader asks, "I wonder if you might comment on a prevailing view that gold and other commodities will deflate seriously during a recession or depression."
First, most people, even most economists who ought to know better, misuse the terms "inflation" and "deflation." They have nothing to do with prices, only with money supply, whether it is being expanded ("inflated") or shrinking ("deflated"). Other things being equal, inflation will lead to higher prices generally, and deflation to lower prices.
In the 19th century, inflations lowered the value of silver and gold, while deflations raised them as the bank paper money that had cheapened them was destroyed. See Roy Jastram, The Golden Constant. Since currency became irredeemable into gold and silver throughout the world, the metals' reaction changed. Since the Great Depression gold and silver have functioned as alternative currencies. During inflations, people flee to them, raising their prices. As far as deflations are concerned, there hasn't been one since the 1930s, so who knows?
It really doesn't matter anyway, because with all due respect to the fine minds who believe that our present monetary madness will end, like the Great Depression, in a deflation, that will never happen. How can I be so sure? Because the deflation whipped the Establishment and its central bank (the Fed), so they have spent the last 80 years building an institutional framework that automatically inflates whenever anything like deflation can be snuffed in the air.
Therefore, there will be no deflation in nominal terms, but a hyperinflation. The Fed has one and only one weapon, inflation. Will they use it to stay in power? They would shoot their mother in front of a cop to stay in power, so they won't blanch at destroying the US dollar. They will destroy, and are now destroying, the US dollar.
In real but not nominal terms the money supply will be shrinking in value during a hyperinflation, so will cause depression or chronic recession. The worse the inflation, the worse the depression.
The outcome of all this mess will be a hyperinflationary depression. Watch Bernanke: he is proving it now. He hasn't yet dropped money from helicopters to the waiting crowds below, but the government is sending checks -- big checks -- to everybody who paid taxes last year. And he is using the Fed to buy rotten assets from his Wall Street cronies, and loan them mega-bucks. The Fed has only the inflation gun, and they will keep on shooting it until the US economy dies of hyperinflation. It may take a month or a year or five years, but their feet are already on the road to suicide. I cannot even contemplate the devastation. But there will be no deflation. In the US, politics trumps reason and economics every time.
As far as the markets go, nothing changed today. Watch the ranges I have been noting for upside or downside breakouts. Keep expecting the silver and gold rally to extend. Stay out of stocks. Learn to grow a garden. Buy silver and gold, and make friends with your family. You'll need them.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 925.40
Change: 3.3 or 0.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.830
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 17.768
Change: 6.2 cents or 0.3%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.02
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 71.861
Change: 0.15 or 0.2%
Since these sideways markets are so dull, I'll liven things up a little. A reader asks, "I wonder if you might comment on a prevailing view that gold and other commodities will deflate seriously during a recession or depression."
First, most people, even most economists who ought to know better, misuse the terms "inflation" and "deflation." They have nothing to do with prices, only with money supply, whether it is being expanded ("inflated") or shrinking ("deflated"). Other things being equal, inflation will lead to higher prices generally, and deflation to lower prices.
In the 19th century, inflations lowered the value of silver and gold, while deflations raised them as the bank paper money that had cheapened them was destroyed. See Roy Jastram, The Golden Constant. Since currency became irredeemable into gold and silver throughout the world, the metals' reaction changed. Since the Great Depression gold and silver have functioned as alternative currencies. During inflations, people flee to them, raising their prices. As far as deflations are concerned, there hasn't been one since the 1930s, so who knows?
It really doesn't matter anyway, because with all due respect to the fine minds who believe that our present monetary madness will end, like the Great Depression, in a deflation, that will never happen. How can I be so sure? Because the deflation whipped the Establishment and its central bank (the Fed), so they have spent the last 80 years building an institutional framework that automatically inflates whenever anything like deflation can be snuffed in the air.
Therefore, there will be no deflation in nominal terms, but a hyperinflation. The Fed has one and only one weapon, inflation. Will they use it to stay in power? They would shoot their mother in front of a cop to stay in power, so they won't blanch at destroying the US dollar. They will destroy, and are now destroying, the US dollar.
In real but not nominal terms the money supply will be shrinking in value during a hyperinflation, so will cause depression or chronic recession. The worse the inflation, the worse the depression.
The outcome of all this mess will be a hyperinflationary depression. Watch Bernanke: he is proving it now. He hasn't yet dropped money from helicopters to the waiting crowds below, but the government is sending checks -- big checks -- to everybody who paid taxes last year. And he is using the Fed to buy rotten assets from his Wall Street cronies, and loan them mega-bucks. The Fed has only the inflation gun, and they will keep on shooting it until the US economy dies of hyperinflation. It may take a month or a year or five years, but their feet are already on the road to suicide. I cannot even contemplate the devastation. But there will be no deflation. In the US, politics trumps reason and economics every time.
As far as the markets go, nothing changed today. Watch the ranges I have been noting for upside or downside breakouts. Keep expecting the silver and gold rally to extend. Stay out of stocks. Learn to grow a garden. Buy silver and gold, and make friends with your family. You'll need them.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Both Silver and Gold Prices Stand at Breakpoints
Gold Price Close Today : 925.40
Gold Price Close April 4th: 909.00
Change: 16.40 or 1.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.768
Silver Price Close April 4th: 17.722
Change: 4.6 cents or 0.3%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.861
US Dollar Index April 4th: 71.964
Change: -0.103 or -0.1%
Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES stand at breakpoints. The last two days' declines may be nothing more than a correction in the wave rising up from the bottom of the bigger correction that bottomed at $16.855 (intraday $16.30) and $882.90 (intraday $876.30), OR, they may be breaking down to lower prices. The next few days will tell us.
If silver and gold prices close lower than those last lows, they will move lower still. If they close higher than the last highs at $949.20 and $18.513, then my current interpretation is correct, and the rally that began last August will resume, headed much higher.
These choppy, sideways markets frustrate everybody, but because the GOLD/SILVER RATIO has not even come close to a new low for this rally, I keep thinking that the price highs lie far above us, and that Ratio low in the near future (by mid-June).
Markets are stalled across the board. Stocks keep falling back from 12,750, unable to pierce that resistance. Don't know what sort of brick hit them in the head today, but it clipped 307 points off the Dow. Maybe I'm just thick-headed, but it doesn't look much like the Promised Land to me.
Likewise the US DOLLAR INDEX can't get through 72.50, hard as it tries. However, I'm loath to make smart remarks about the dollar's weakness, because the more times a market bangs at a resistance level (headed up or down), the more likely it will break thru. I will say this much, however, from a viewpoint of stocks & the dollar, if Ben Bernanke and Paulson were running your sandwich shop, you would now be out of business for substituting linoleum for bologna.
Don't y'all find a cosmic amusement in the notion that the strongest economy on earth has been held hostage since 1913 by the collection of nitwits, cretins, ne'er do wells, and incompetents who have tried to manage the US dollar and the economy?
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close April 4th: 909.00
Change: 16.40 or 1.8%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.768
Silver Price Close April 4th: 17.722
Change: 4.6 cents or 0.3%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.861
US Dollar Index April 4th: 71.964
Change: -0.103 or -0.1%
Both SILVER and GOLD PRICES stand at breakpoints. The last two days' declines may be nothing more than a correction in the wave rising up from the bottom of the bigger correction that bottomed at $16.855 (intraday $16.30) and $882.90 (intraday $876.30), OR, they may be breaking down to lower prices. The next few days will tell us.
If silver and gold prices close lower than those last lows, they will move lower still. If they close higher than the last highs at $949.20 and $18.513, then my current interpretation is correct, and the rally that began last August will resume, headed much higher.
These choppy, sideways markets frustrate everybody, but because the GOLD/SILVER RATIO has not even come close to a new low for this rally, I keep thinking that the price highs lie far above us, and that Ratio low in the near future (by mid-June).
Markets are stalled across the board. Stocks keep falling back from 12,750, unable to pierce that resistance. Don't know what sort of brick hit them in the head today, but it clipped 307 points off the Dow. Maybe I'm just thick-headed, but it doesn't look much like the Promised Land to me.
Likewise the US DOLLAR INDEX can't get through 72.50, hard as it tries. However, I'm loath to make smart remarks about the dollar's weakness, because the more times a market bangs at a resistance level (headed up or down), the more likely it will break thru. I will say this much, however, from a viewpoint of stocks & the dollar, if Ben Bernanke and Paulson were running your sandwich shop, you would now be out of business for substituting linoleum for bologna.
Don't y'all find a cosmic amusement in the notion that the strongest economy on earth has been held hostage since 1913 by the collection of nitwits, cretins, ne'er do wells, and incompetents who have tried to manage the US dollar and the economy?
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Only a Seriously Lower Gold Price Close Below $900 Would Suggest the Correction Has Not Ended
Gold Price Close Today : 928.30
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 933.60
Change: -5.3 or -0.6%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.013
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 18.17
Change: -0.157 cents or -0.9%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.86
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%
SILVER and GOLD PRICE are trading sideways, which is as frustrating as filling a well with BBs, one BB at a time with tweezers. Silver Price closed above $18 at $18.013, but in aftermarket trading has dropped to $17.965. The gold price closed down $5.30 at $928.30, but has eased off to $927.70.
This sort of trading is frustrating, but doesn't contradict my fundamental interpretation that silver and gold prices have finished correcting and will next begin another rally. Only a seriously lower close (below $17.40 and $900) would bring my interpretation into question.
At 14:00 Central time as I write, the Dow is up 78 points and the S&P 500 up 7.30 points. None of this settles the question. Only a break above 12,750 or below 12,200 will answer clearly. Either way, stay out of stocks.
Likewise, the US DOLLAR INDEX reversed itself again today and climbed above 72 to close at 72.080. Closes below 72.50 are just noise. Eventually this year the dollar will rally, but not without that close above 72.50 first.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 933.60
Change: -5.3 or -0.6%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.013
Silver Price Close Yesterday: 18.17
Change: -0.157 cents or -0.9%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.86
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%
SILVER and GOLD PRICE are trading sideways, which is as frustrating as filling a well with BBs, one BB at a time with tweezers. Silver Price closed above $18 at $18.013, but in aftermarket trading has dropped to $17.965. The gold price closed down $5.30 at $928.30, but has eased off to $927.70.
This sort of trading is frustrating, but doesn't contradict my fundamental interpretation that silver and gold prices have finished correcting and will next begin another rally. Only a seriously lower close (below $17.40 and $900) would bring my interpretation into question.
At 14:00 Central time as I write, the Dow is up 78 points and the S&P 500 up 7.30 points. None of this settles the question. Only a break above 12,750 or below 12,200 will answer clearly. Either way, stay out of stocks.
Likewise, the US DOLLAR INDEX reversed itself again today and climbed above 72 to close at 72.080. Closes below 72.50 are just noise. Eventually this year the dollar will rally, but not without that close above 72.50 first.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
The Crisis Has Passed for Silver and Gold Prices
Gold Price Close Today : 933.60
Change: 19.60 or 2.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.170
Change: 49.5 cents or 2.8%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.86
Change: -0.43 or 0.4%
Sorry I missed sending y'all commentaries yesterday and Monday, but I was wrapped up in a project very dear to me and could not get unwrapped in time to send the commentary.
In fact, I wouldn't have had much to say the past two days, since we can only wait and watch silver and gold prices creep up to prove or disprove that their correction has ended.
Over the last three days SILVER and GOLD PRICES may have seemed to act randomly, but they haven't. They have established bottoms, tested them, and rebounded through resistance.
Today the gold price seems to have pierced the $925 - $930 resistance, while the silver price rose above its 17 day moving average $17.95 and almost closed above its 50 DMA $18.18.
The crisis, I believe, has passed for silver and gold prices, but confirmation will only come (isn't life just like that) when they close above their last highs at $960 and $18.51.
All right, after times of bafflement and bewilderment, we have to lift our eyes up to the horizon and remember the long term, and why we bought silver and gold anyway: both are in a primary uptrend or bull market for another 10 years. That ought to make the volatility and turmoil easier.
Next drama to expect is a strong rally in silver and gold prices. Seasonally, they should peak by mid June, and this ought to be a strong time of year for them.
I understand that many analysts are momentarily expecting a big Dow rally, but it hasn't materialized yet. So far that 12,750 barrier has stopped the Dow dead. But if or when it does pierce that, a rally will follow. Personally, I don't give a hoot whether stocks rally or not, since I expect them to lose value pitifully over the next 10 years against silver and gold.
The US DOLLAR INDEX makes life hard on friends & foes alike. Yet again, after a long chain of "yet agains" it failed to get through 72.30 and fell today by 43.4 basis points to 71.86. Best colour an optimist might put on this behaviour is that the dollar is building a long, sideways triangle which might (50-50) break out to the upside.
Mmmmm... Did y'all notice that in spite of Super-banker Bernanke's best efforts, stocks and the dollar haven't done much. About the only thing to his credit so far (and bottom line hasn't been drawn there yet) is that the entire world financial structure has not collapsed. Good work, Super-banker!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Change: 19.60 or 2.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 18.170
Change: 49.5 cents or 2.8%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.86
Change: -0.43 or 0.4%
Sorry I missed sending y'all commentaries yesterday and Monday, but I was wrapped up in a project very dear to me and could not get unwrapped in time to send the commentary.
In fact, I wouldn't have had much to say the past two days, since we can only wait and watch silver and gold prices creep up to prove or disprove that their correction has ended.
Over the last three days SILVER and GOLD PRICES may have seemed to act randomly, but they haven't. They have established bottoms, tested them, and rebounded through resistance.
Today the gold price seems to have pierced the $925 - $930 resistance, while the silver price rose above its 17 day moving average $17.95 and almost closed above its 50 DMA $18.18.
The crisis, I believe, has passed for silver and gold prices, but confirmation will only come (isn't life just like that) when they close above their last highs at $960 and $18.51.
All right, after times of bafflement and bewilderment, we have to lift our eyes up to the horizon and remember the long term, and why we bought silver and gold anyway: both are in a primary uptrend or bull market for another 10 years. That ought to make the volatility and turmoil easier.
Next drama to expect is a strong rally in silver and gold prices. Seasonally, they should peak by mid June, and this ought to be a strong time of year for them.
I understand that many analysts are momentarily expecting a big Dow rally, but it hasn't materialized yet. So far that 12,750 barrier has stopped the Dow dead. But if or when it does pierce that, a rally will follow. Personally, I don't give a hoot whether stocks rally or not, since I expect them to lose value pitifully over the next 10 years against silver and gold.
The US DOLLAR INDEX makes life hard on friends & foes alike. Yet again, after a long chain of "yet agains" it failed to get through 72.30 and fell today by 43.4 basis points to 71.86. Best colour an optimist might put on this behaviour is that the dollar is building a long, sideways triangle which might (50-50) break out to the upside.
Mmmmm... Did y'all notice that in spite of Super-banker Bernanke's best efforts, stocks and the dollar haven't done much. About the only thing to his credit so far (and bottom line hasn't been drawn there yet) is that the entire world financial structure has not collapsed. Good work, Super-banker!
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Friday, April 04, 2008
Silver and Gold Prices are Aiming at a High Sometime in May to Mid-June
Gold Price Close Today : 909.00
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 930.60
Change: -21.60 or -2.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.722
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.90
Change: -17.80 cents or -1.0%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.964
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.701
Change: 0.263 or 0.4%
Steely eyed, let's just look at the week's numbers: Stocks up, dollar up, silver prices down, gold prices down, platinum and palladium prices, down. But did the week tell us anything else?
I was certainly wrong last week about silver and gold prices, since they dropped Monday, bottomed Tuesday, then gradually climbed the rest of the week. For the time being, my conclusion is that the sharp correction that began 17 March bottomed this past week on Tuesday at $16.30 intraday and US$876.30.
To prove this conclusion, the silver price will have to rise above the last high at $18.68 and the gold price must clear its last high at $960.30. Those prices should come next week.
Unless the seasonality for metals will vary widely from typical, silver and gold prices are aiming at a high sometime in May to mid-June. Time is running short.
Even though silver and gold prices finished this week lower than last, both were recovering from their correction. On the other hand, the US DOLLAR and STOCKS were doing the opposite, namely, failing to follow through on their rallies.
STOCKS showed their confusion today with the Dow down slightly & the S&P slightly higher. Confused markets usually change directions. Stocks have tried thrice now to clear the barrier at 12,700 - 12,750, wthout success. However, multiple tries usually break through. If stocks really have failed, next week they will drop like your ruby cufflinks down an elevator shaft. A close below 12,200 would carry the Dow much lower. On the other hand, a close above 12,750 will launch a rally. I don't give a hoot either way, since I wouldn't own stocks with your money.
The US DOLLAR INDEX simply can't build on its gains. Today it fell below 72 yet again. Below 71.20, there's nothing to support it. The dollar has established a very slight uptrend, maybe is building a triangle, but expect no great things yet. So far Bernanke's hijinks, tricks, & frauds have availed the dollar nothing.
I don’t wish anybody ill, but I'm beginning to see idiotic articles admitting how smelly Bernanke's bailouts are, and how the taxpayer will eventually pay, but, O, gee-whiz, isn't that better than replaying the Great Depression? Isn't it better to "save the system'?
No, it ain't. The "system" is the mechanism whereby the rest of us are impoverished by lying, fraudulent money and corporations, to the benefit of a few and the economic and moral gutting of the rest of us. No, no, let the Next Great Depression come. Rid us of this vile tyranny, so we can build a new system, some attempt at justice. I for one will shed no tears when the lying banking system and central banking destroy themselves. I won't cry even if I have to buy me a tin bill & peck dirt with the chickens.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 930.60
Change: -21.60 or -2.3%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.722
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.90
Change: -17.80 cents or -1.0%
US Dollar Index Today: 71.964
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.701
Change: 0.263 or 0.4%
Steely eyed, let's just look at the week's numbers: Stocks up, dollar up, silver prices down, gold prices down, platinum and palladium prices, down. But did the week tell us anything else?
I was certainly wrong last week about silver and gold prices, since they dropped Monday, bottomed Tuesday, then gradually climbed the rest of the week. For the time being, my conclusion is that the sharp correction that began 17 March bottomed this past week on Tuesday at $16.30 intraday and US$876.30.
To prove this conclusion, the silver price will have to rise above the last high at $18.68 and the gold price must clear its last high at $960.30. Those prices should come next week.
Unless the seasonality for metals will vary widely from typical, silver and gold prices are aiming at a high sometime in May to mid-June. Time is running short.
Even though silver and gold prices finished this week lower than last, both were recovering from their correction. On the other hand, the US DOLLAR and STOCKS were doing the opposite, namely, failing to follow through on their rallies.
STOCKS showed their confusion today with the Dow down slightly & the S&P slightly higher. Confused markets usually change directions. Stocks have tried thrice now to clear the barrier at 12,700 - 12,750, wthout success. However, multiple tries usually break through. If stocks really have failed, next week they will drop like your ruby cufflinks down an elevator shaft. A close below 12,200 would carry the Dow much lower. On the other hand, a close above 12,750 will launch a rally. I don't give a hoot either way, since I wouldn't own stocks with your money.
The US DOLLAR INDEX simply can't build on its gains. Today it fell below 72 yet again. Below 71.20, there's nothing to support it. The dollar has established a very slight uptrend, maybe is building a triangle, but expect no great things yet. So far Bernanke's hijinks, tricks, & frauds have availed the dollar nothing.
I don’t wish anybody ill, but I'm beginning to see idiotic articles admitting how smelly Bernanke's bailouts are, and how the taxpayer will eventually pay, but, O, gee-whiz, isn't that better than replaying the Great Depression? Isn't it better to "save the system'?
No, it ain't. The "system" is the mechanism whereby the rest of us are impoverished by lying, fraudulent money and corporations, to the benefit of a few and the economic and moral gutting of the rest of us. No, no, let the Next Great Depression come. Rid us of this vile tyranny, so we can build a new system, some attempt at justice. I for one will shed no tears when the lying banking system and central banking destroy themselves. I won't cry even if I have to buy me a tin bill & peck dirt with the chickens.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Gold has Done Lots of Work, but Hasn't Yet Proved that the Decline has Ended
Gold Price Close Today : 905.00
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 895.2
Change: 9.8 or 1.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.447
Silver Price Close Yesteday: 17.147
Change: 30 cents or 1.7%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.22
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.23
Change: -0.01 or 0.0%
GOLD and SILVER PRICES rose today, and that's fine, but twas an unexciting day. Underneath gold is very strong support at $890, $872 lowest. But looking above, there are numerous milestones that gold must put behind it: the 50% retracement level, about $955; the $925-$930 resistance area; 38.2% retracement about $937; 10 day moving average at $927.32. All these lie above today's 905 close, but I'm glad to be over the round-number $900 at least. Point is that gold has done lots of work, but hasn't yet proved that the decline has ended.
Looking at similar numbers for silver, $17 has proven firm support, with further strong support underneath at $16.80 and $16.40. But look up: the 10 DMA is at $17.65; 50% retracement at 1888; 20 DMA at $18.93, 61.8% retracement at $19.50; and the last high was at $18.68. That's the target I want most badly to see. Good news is that the 50 DMA is only at $18.12.
If silver and gold prices are going to have another downward push, it will most likely start tomorrow. Keep your eyes peeled. If tomorrow closes higher still, that's a good sign that low prices lie behind us.
The US DOLLAR INDEX had another bad hair day. Only saving grace was that it didn't fall too far, only a couple of basis points. It hammered on 72.80, but for 3 days that gate has been locked to it. A close below 72.15 would be the dollar's death, but I suspect rather that it will move higher over the next few days, up to 73.20 - 72.50 anyway.
STOCKS once again failed to pierce Dow 12,700. Dow keeps knocking at that ceiling, but has failed so far. Perhaps tomorrow? If it fails thoroughly three times, O, bad news. Eschew stocks relentlessly.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 895.2
Change: 9.8 or 1.1%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.447
Silver Price Close Yesteday: 17.147
Change: 30 cents or 1.7%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.22
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.23
Change: -0.01 or 0.0%
GOLD and SILVER PRICES rose today, and that's fine, but twas an unexciting day. Underneath gold is very strong support at $890, $872 lowest. But looking above, there are numerous milestones that gold must put behind it: the 50% retracement level, about $955; the $925-$930 resistance area; 38.2% retracement about $937; 10 day moving average at $927.32. All these lie above today's 905 close, but I'm glad to be over the round-number $900 at least. Point is that gold has done lots of work, but hasn't yet proved that the decline has ended.
Looking at similar numbers for silver, $17 has proven firm support, with further strong support underneath at $16.80 and $16.40. But look up: the 10 DMA is at $17.65; 50% retracement at 1888; 20 DMA at $18.93, 61.8% retracement at $19.50; and the last high was at $18.68. That's the target I want most badly to see. Good news is that the 50 DMA is only at $18.12.
If silver and gold prices are going to have another downward push, it will most likely start tomorrow. Keep your eyes peeled. If tomorrow closes higher still, that's a good sign that low prices lie behind us.
The US DOLLAR INDEX had another bad hair day. Only saving grace was that it didn't fall too far, only a couple of basis points. It hammered on 72.80, but for 3 days that gate has been locked to it. A close below 72.15 would be the dollar's death, but I suspect rather that it will move higher over the next few days, up to 73.20 - 72.50 anyway.
STOCKS once again failed to pierce Dow 12,700. Dow keeps knocking at that ceiling, but has failed so far. Perhaps tomorrow? If it fails thoroughly three times, O, bad news. Eschew stocks relentlessly.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Wednesday, April 02, 2008
Was Yesterday the Last Day of the Silver and Gold Price Correction?
Gold Price Close Today : 895.20
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 882.90
Change: 12.3 or 1.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.147
Silver Price Close Yesteday: 16.855
Change: 29.2 cents or 1.7%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.23
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.51
Change: -0.29 or -0.4%
The good news about SILVER and GOLD PRICES today did not stop with their higher closes, gold up $12.30 at $895.20 and silver up 29.2 cents at $17.1470. No, in the aftermarket they kept on chugging, running to $904 and $17.375 last I saw. Yesterday might have been the last day of the correction, but let's look at tomorrow, too. I note with interest that the upward correction (against the primary down trend) in the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS appears completed, or nearly so.
I have to stand by my view that this is a short term metals correction. Once it ends, in the next few days or already, the next leg of the metals rally will begin, taking silver and gold prices much, much higher than they have already been. If the silver and gold price correction has ended, tomorrow the gold price ought to close above $925, and above the 50 DMA at 939.87 would be even better. Silver needs to close above its 50 DMA at $18.12. Higher would be better.
The US DOLLAR INDEX today dropped back below its 20 day moving average (72.31). This remains equivocal, but a close below 71.30 would drag the dollar much further down. The Dollar Index needs to climb above its last intraday high at 73.19 before it attracts any realistic believers.
In STOCKS, the Dow Jones Industrial average gave back 45 points today. Since 10 March it has been trending upward (higher highs, lower lows), but must clear that 12,700 (& more precisely, 12,750) neckline before a sizeable rally will follow. We'll know by end of the week, I think. Stay out of stocks. Swap stocks for silver & gold.
On this day in 1792 the US congress passed the Coinage Act, which (under the Constitution's authority) forever & immutably set the standard "dollar" at 371.25 grains of fine silver. The Act provide for no gold coins denominated in "dollars", but only Eagles, Half Eagles, and Quarter Eagles valued at $10, $5, & $2.50, establishing a "symmetallic" & not a bimetallic or monometallic standard.
The system was most astutely designed to allow a permanent silver dollar coin as the basis of the currency, with periodic adjustments of the gold coinage to allow for the change in the gold/silver ratio value at market. This was actually done in the 1830s without cheating a single member of the public.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 882.90
Change: 12.3 or 1.4%
Silver Price Close Today : 17.147
Silver Price Close Yesteday: 16.855
Change: 29.2 cents or 1.7%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.23
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 72.51
Change: -0.29 or -0.4%
The good news about SILVER and GOLD PRICES today did not stop with their higher closes, gold up $12.30 at $895.20 and silver up 29.2 cents at $17.1470. No, in the aftermarket they kept on chugging, running to $904 and $17.375 last I saw. Yesterday might have been the last day of the correction, but let's look at tomorrow, too. I note with interest that the upward correction (against the primary down trend) in the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS appears completed, or nearly so.
I have to stand by my view that this is a short term metals correction. Once it ends, in the next few days or already, the next leg of the metals rally will begin, taking silver and gold prices much, much higher than they have already been. If the silver and gold price correction has ended, tomorrow the gold price ought to close above $925, and above the 50 DMA at 939.87 would be even better. Silver needs to close above its 50 DMA at $18.12. Higher would be better.
The US DOLLAR INDEX today dropped back below its 20 day moving average (72.31). This remains equivocal, but a close below 71.30 would drag the dollar much further down. The Dollar Index needs to climb above its last intraday high at 73.19 before it attracts any realistic believers.
In STOCKS, the Dow Jones Industrial average gave back 45 points today. Since 10 March it has been trending upward (higher highs, lower lows), but must clear that 12,700 (& more precisely, 12,750) neckline before a sizeable rally will follow. We'll know by end of the week, I think. Stay out of stocks. Swap stocks for silver & gold.
On this day in 1792 the US congress passed the Coinage Act, which (under the Constitution's authority) forever & immutably set the standard "dollar" at 371.25 grains of fine silver. The Act provide for no gold coins denominated in "dollars", but only Eagles, Half Eagles, and Quarter Eagles valued at $10, $5, & $2.50, establishing a "symmetallic" & not a bimetallic or monometallic standard.
The system was most astutely designed to allow a permanent silver dollar coin as the basis of the currency, with periodic adjustments of the gold coinage to allow for the change in the gold/silver ratio value at market. This was actually done in the 1830s without cheating a single member of the public.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
Tomorrow the Gold Price Could Drop to $850, Even $825
Gold Price Close Today : 882.90
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 916.20
Change: -33.3 or -3.6%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.855
Silver Price Close Yesteday 17.30
Change: -42.5 cents or -2.5%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.51
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 71.74
Change: 0.78 or 1.1%
'Twas the great Texas entrepreneur H.L. Hunt who said, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." Gold and silver investors ought to be pondering Hunt's wisdom today.
Now riddle me this: while both SILVER and GOLD PRICES fell today, the gold/silver ratio didn't change much. That shows equal weakness in both metals. As I warned y'all yesterday, both metals made slightly lower lows today, leaving you feeling like you are flying in an airplane that just lost its floor.
I may be as wrong as a rich boy in love, but I think silver and gold prices ought to turn around within the next couple of days. Decline might extend to Friday. After all, the Silver and Gold Bull wants to shake off as many riders as he possibly can, so here he will apply maximum, puke-in-your-wastebasket terror to lose them. How bad could it get? Tomorrow the gold price could drop to $850, even $825, and the silver price to -- get out the defibrillator! -- $15.50.
Then just as quickly (if I am reading this correctly) both metals will turn and shoot back up, silver rolling over $21 like a stampeding buffalo herd over a busload of tourists.
Pause and ponder a moment: if this was easy, everybody would be rich. If you are not prepared for volatility and the occasional counter-attacks from bears and Nice Government Men, well, go join the socialists.
The US DOLLAR INDEX jumped up 78 basis points today, almost to the middle of its trading channel. Three outcomes are possible. First, and from here most likely, is that the dollar has made a double bottom and will shortly be challenging the last high at 73.19 (intraday). Second, it's another in a long run of false alarms, and the dollar will faint again and go lower. Third, it's just the same old tease, and the dollar will trade sideways longer before it finally rallies in earnest. For now, choice #1 is most likely, provided the dollar gains and moves through 73 within the next couple of days. Knowing the dollar, it might just be a big "April fool!"
Lo, stocks have nearly reached the 12,700 neckline of the head-&-shoulders topping formation, and the Dow today climbed above its 50 day moving average (12,316.14). A move above 12,700 would lead to a longer rally, but time is running out for the Dow, as the old proverb warns to "Sell in May, then go away." Whether stocks rally or not, twill only be to disappoint again, and I want no part of it -- and certainly no part of a primary down trend (bear market) in stocks.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 916.20
Change: -33.3 or -3.6%
Silver Price Close Today : 16.855
Silver Price Close Yesteday 17.30
Change: -42.5 cents or -2.5%
US Dollar Index Today: 72.51
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 71.74
Change: 0.78 or 1.1%
'Twas the great Texas entrepreneur H.L. Hunt who said, "Never get really elated in victory; when times are tough, never get down." Gold and silver investors ought to be pondering Hunt's wisdom today.
Now riddle me this: while both SILVER and GOLD PRICES fell today, the gold/silver ratio didn't change much. That shows equal weakness in both metals. As I warned y'all yesterday, both metals made slightly lower lows today, leaving you feeling like you are flying in an airplane that just lost its floor.
I may be as wrong as a rich boy in love, but I think silver and gold prices ought to turn around within the next couple of days. Decline might extend to Friday. After all, the Silver and Gold Bull wants to shake off as many riders as he possibly can, so here he will apply maximum, puke-in-your-wastebasket terror to lose them. How bad could it get? Tomorrow the gold price could drop to $850, even $825, and the silver price to -- get out the defibrillator! -- $15.50.
Then just as quickly (if I am reading this correctly) both metals will turn and shoot back up, silver rolling over $21 like a stampeding buffalo herd over a busload of tourists.
Pause and ponder a moment: if this was easy, everybody would be rich. If you are not prepared for volatility and the occasional counter-attacks from bears and Nice Government Men, well, go join the socialists.
The US DOLLAR INDEX jumped up 78 basis points today, almost to the middle of its trading channel. Three outcomes are possible. First, and from here most likely, is that the dollar has made a double bottom and will shortly be challenging the last high at 73.19 (intraday). Second, it's another in a long run of false alarms, and the dollar will faint again and go lower. Third, it's just the same old tease, and the dollar will trade sideways longer before it finally rallies in earnest. For now, choice #1 is most likely, provided the dollar gains and moves through 73 within the next couple of days. Knowing the dollar, it might just be a big "April fool!"
Lo, stocks have nearly reached the 12,700 neckline of the head-&-shoulders topping formation, and the Dow today climbed above its 50 day moving average (12,316.14). A move above 12,700 would lead to a longer rally, but time is running out for the Dow, as the old proverb warns to "Sell in May, then go away." Whether stocks rally or not, twill only be to disappoint again, and I want no part of it -- and certainly no part of a primary down trend (bear market) in stocks.
Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.
- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger
"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com
To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.
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