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Friday, February 29, 2008

Gold Price Could Hit $1000 Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : 972.10
Gold Price Close Last Friday : 944.70
Change: 27.40 or 2.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.808
Silver Price Close Last Friday : 18.025
Change: 178.30 cents or 9.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.713
US Dollar Index Friday: 75.542
Change: -1.829 or -2.4%

Whew! SILVER and GOLD PRICES are blasting the hair off our heads, and it's not over yet. Meanwhile, the dollar looks like squash on a dead vine. Stocks don't look much better.

It's obvious that SILVER & GOLD PRICES are in the last stages of their rally because they are moving straight up every day by leaps & bounds. The SILVER PRICE cleared the $17s in nine days, the $18s in three days, and after two days is 3/4 of the way through the $19s.

However recognizing that silver and gold prices are blowing off topside isn't the same as knowing (1) how high they will go, or (2) how long it will last. Longstanding seasonality says that gold and silver should peak sometime from late April to mid-June, but they might peak sooner.

I still expect to see the silver price above $21 (minimum) & the GOLD PRICE over US$1000 before this ends, and that y'all could see next week.

My key to the top is the GOLD/SILVER RATIO, which I expect to drop shortly before silver and gold peak in price. That Ratio should reach at least 38.63. The gold/silver ratio dropped from 52.41 last Friday to 49.08 today, a drop of -3.33 or -6.4%.

Now here's the most sobering thought of all: today's silver and gold market is not yet as wild as it gets. It will get much, much wilder still, & it has years to run. Much wilder. Sort of makes you wonder where that will leave stocks & the dollar, doesn't it?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average took stocks down 300 points today to close at 12,281.70. Dow's MUST HOLD level is 12,000. A break below that (technically, below the last low at 11,971) will send stocks into free fall.

Another interpretation is that stocks are bottoming in preparation for a rally. Matters not to me either way, because I want to be out of stocks, which are losing value against silver & gold, and into precious metals.

The DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (DiG$), measuring stocks' value against gold, hit another new low today at G$261.17 (12.634 ounces). There is no support underneath it, so no telling where it might stop soon. The Dow in Silver Ounces has plummeted this week, stopping at 620.04 ounces, less than a fourth of the 2001 high.

The US DOLLAR INDEX this week broke its November 74.5 low & fell to new lows. I believe today's low was another new one at 73.71. If the dollar dollar doesn't drop further than 73, it is making a double bottom & will rally later this year. If it falls thru 73, look for 60. The Nice Government Men who manipulate the dollar's exchange rate have decided that you all are living too high on the hog, & they've decided to take y'all down a peg or ten. If you stay in dollars, you'll lose almost everything. Get out of CDs, bank deposits, annuities, whole life insurance, bonds, bond funds, and try to hedge your pension by buying silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, February 27, 2008

This Rally in Gold and Silver has at Least Another 8 Weeks to Run

Gold Price Close Today : 946.10
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 937.60
Change: 8.50 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.720
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 18.080
Change: 63.5 cents or 3.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 74.64
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 75.50
Change: -0.88 or -1.2%


The SILVER PRICE moved clean through $17.00 in nine days. In three days it has moved 3/4 of the way through the $18.00s, up 63.5 cents today to close at $18.72, another new high. But the GOLD PRICE stopped at $946.10, its last high.

How can I possibly think this is not the top? How can I keep insisting the silver price will reach $21.00?

Simple. Look at the Gold/Silver Ratio. It dropped 1.305 to 50.54 today, about 2.5%, largest single day drop I remember. But it has much further to drop. 50:1 is only the first major resistance for the ratio. Before us still lies 46, the 2006 low at 43.6, and lower still to make a new low.

If y'all could see y'all would understand that the ratio is locked into an unyielding, grinding primary downtrend that makes signature spike lows. This rally in gold and silver, which is always a plunge in the ratio, has at least another 8 weeks to run, unless that ratio drops even faster than it has in the last two lows.

US DOLLAR INDEX is helping the silver price as much as possible, dropping 88 basis points today to shave its previous low. Don't think the dollar will drop through this low. Expect it to hold.

STOCKS have fallen to a new low against silver. Whoooo.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, February 25, 2008

$1,060 for Gold and Well Over $21 for Silver by Mid June

Gold Price Close Today : 937.60
Gold Price Close Friday : 944.7
Change: -7.10 or -0.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.080
Silver Price Close Friday : 18.025
Change: 0.055 cents or 0.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.50
US Dollar Index Friday: 75.542
Change: -0.04 or -0.1%

The GOLD PRICE is experiencing engine trouble trying to pierce $945 - $950, but silver is not bothered at all. Today the gold price fell $7.10 to $937.60, but has traded a dollar or so higher in the aftermarket.

The SILVER PRICE added 5.5 cents today to close at $18.08, then traded up to $18.12 after the market closed. Above $18.00 there's no resistance until silver reaches the $20s.

It's possible that silver & gold prices might correct from here, but I don't think so. I think the shorts returned from their Long Island villas today & put their positions back on, & that was the most damage they could do. Tomorrow gold will flex its muscles again. It goes without saying (then why am I?) that silver will outperform gold.

Danger points where metal must hold support is $920 for gold and $17.90 for silver. My upward targets remain US$1,060.00 for gold and well over $21 for silver. That should happen before the whole rally ends by mid-June.

Stocks rise, stocks fall, it is the dance of the do-dos, without strength or meaning. Swap stocks for silver & gold. Use any stock rally to do it.

The US DOLLAR INDEX continues to languish around 75.50 whither it fell last week. Now it finds itself unable to pick itself up and make another try for 76. No news here, just the dollar index's long bottoming attempt.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, February 22, 2008

Hang on to Your Silver and Gold -- Long Term the Rise Has Only Begun

Gold Price Close Today : 944.70
Gold Price Close February 15th : 902.80
Change: 41.90 or 4.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.025
Silver Price Close February 15th : 17.098
Change: 92.70 cents or 5.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.542
US Dollar Index February 15th: 76.040
Change: -0.498 or -0.7%

GOLD & SILVER PRICES are beginning the really wild stage of their rally. This week the SILVER PRICE gained 5.4% & gold 4.6%. More important, both cleared strong, tricky resistance at $930 & $17.50. Silver needed only Ten (10) days to march all the way through the $17.00 level to close at $18.00, highest silver price since December 1980.

Next weeks will be wild as silver pushes toward $21.00 and higher (I told y'all there wasn't much resistance up here) & gold crosses US$1,000.00. Hang on to your silver & gold -- long term the rise has only begun. This rally could end anytime from now through mid-June. My guess is mid-June. As long as gold remains above $925 & silver above $17.50, rally cannot be questioned. Breaking those supports would raise eyebrows, breaking $16.80 and $900 would bring trouble. Expect, rather, higher silver and gold prices.

The PLATINUM PRICE gained nearly $100 bucks this week, and the PALLADIUM PRICE gained $68, a 15% increase! See what thin markets can do? Markets like silver's.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO is very slowly falling. A break through 52 will speed things up, then speed up more when it crosses 51. MUCH lower ratio coming soon. Get ready to swap silver for gold.

This week simply beggars comment. Everything worked for metals, & nothing worked for paper money & paper investments. 'Tis a harbinger of days to come.

STOCKS remained flat this week. In their league, not falling below crucial support is an achievement. Most likely the January 22 low will hold for a ,while. A rally will come, but first ,a touch-back to the low. Sell all stocks, other than energy or precious metals, & put proceeds in silver and gold. I continue to watch in amazement as people hang on to stocks, hoping they will come back, like passengers from a shipwreck. Stocks will come back, after this primary down trend ends 7 or 8 years from now. Until then, their trend is down, especially against silver & gold.

Speaking whereof, the DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS this week made a new low at, G$268.41 (12.984 oz), breaking down through 13 oz. & a new landslide -- errr, landmark.

New lows keep showing up on the DOW IN SILVER OUNCES, too, as it broke through the 700 barrier headed for the ground.

US DOLLAR INDEX proved incapable of holding on above 76.00. Yesterday it took a knock on the head of 52 basis points, but was flat today. Look for the dollar to remain above its lows, but to rally later this year.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, February 21, 2008

How High Will the Gold Price Go?

Gold Price Close Today : 946.10
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 934.60
Change: 11.50 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.94
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 17.74
Change: 19.5 cents or 1.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.61
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 76.13
Change: -0.52 or -0.7%

Fulfilling my yesterday's expectation, the GOLD PRICE closed today more than 2% above its previous high close, at $946.10, up $11.50. Only question now is, "How high will the gold price go?" Let me speculate, with perfect irresponsibility. Without much trouble I can work out a target of $1030 - $1060, but when gold gets worked up & spikes, anything can happen. So US$1,100 to $US1,200 are possible. Gold Prices should probably reach $1,000 within a fortnight (two weeks to you Yanks).

For the first time since December 1980 (27-1/2 years ago) the SILVER PRICE traded above $18 today, at $18.06. Breakout is now confirmed beyond all doubting, and the silver price is moving into the hyperbolic part of its rise. 'Twill pass gold like the roadrunner passes the coyote.

Both silver & gold continue to rise away from their breakouts in Euro and in Yen terms. Metals are now steaming ahead in terms of all major trashy fiat national currencies. Surely, surely, veritas filia temporis -- truth is the daughter of time.

The PLATINUM PRICE has sort of stalled -- above US$2,100, if you can call that stalled -- while the PALLADIUM PRICE has made good on its earlier threat to begin closing the gap with platinum. The palladium price closed over US$500 at $512.90 today.

What headaches the Nice Government Men must be having! The US DOLLAR INDEX today fell below 76 -- by 52 big basis points, to close at 75.61. But lo! It remaineth above its low.

Fulfilling its warning earlier this week, the Dow in Gold Dollars broke to a new low today at G$268.41 (12.984 oz). Stocks have now lost 71% of their value against gold since their 1999 peak. Dow in Silver Ounces made a new low, too. It's fallen 73% since its 2001 high. Yet people still argue with me when I recommend they sell stocks & buy silver & gold. I don't understand. Another 7 years or more of famine in the stock market looms ahead.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Much, Much, Much Higher Silver and Gold Prices are Coming

Gold Price Close Today : 934.60
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 926.60
Change: 8.00 or 0.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.740
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 17.490
Change: 25.5 cents or 1.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.13
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 76.04
Change: 0.08 or 0.1%

Well, I reckon today's GOLD PRICE close ought to shut the break-out-gainsayers' mouths. It closed up $8.00 at US$934.60, & in the aftermarket traded up to US$940. Now to nail the issue forever shut, gold needs to close 2% above its high close, which would be $945.65. Expect that in 24 hours.

The SILVER PRICE in fact outpaced gold slightly today, closing up 25.5 cents at $17.74, a new high, confirming yesterday's breakout. The 2% confirmation comes at $17.84, an easy mark tomorrow.

Much, much, much higher silver & gold prices are coming
.

THE GOLD SILVER RATIO will drop sharply, very fast, once it falls below 52. Get ready to swap silver for gold sometime this spring.

The US DOLLAR INDEX hung by its claws above 76 today, closing up 8 basis points at 76.13. Steady. Gaining also on the Euro.

STOCKS rose today, but without much enthusiasm. Dow rose 90. to close at 12,427.26; S&P rose 11.25 to close at 1,360.03.

March crude oil futures closed at $100.74 today, above $100 a barrel second day in a row. Oil prices are up 74% from last year. A sustained break above $100 -- where can it go? I'm glad I live on a farm. How about you?

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The Silver Price Broke Out Today and Gold Prices Ought to Follow Tomorrow

Gold Price Close Today : 926.60
Change: 23.80 or 2.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.490
Change: 39.2 cents or 2.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.04
Change: 0.0 or 0.0%

Over yesterday's market, the platinum price rose almost $100 this morning, & the palladium price about $35. Whew! You are seeing what happens when everybody tries to crowd into a thin market thru a narrow door all at once: price must rise. This process has barely begun for silver & gold prices. Think on that. Let that roll around your mind a minute.

GOLD PRICES leapt up $23.80 today, right out of the gate. The SILVER PRICE jumped 39.2 cents to close at $17.49. That's a slightly higher close than the last high close at $17.433, so that constitutes a breakout for silver. Gold closed only a few pennies higher on 28 January at $927.10, so today's $926.60 close didn't quite constitute a breakout.

Tomorrow or the next day gold MUST penetrate this barrier, or today's whole show will become a failure at resistance, implying that gold's rally has ended. I doubt that will happen, because the silver price broke out today & gold prices ought to follow tomorrow.

STOCKS may have bottomed on 22 January in that panic sell-off, but they're not anxious to rally. Probably we'll see a touchback to that January low before any rally begins. Don't miss this: use any rally to dump stocks & put proceeds in silver & gold.

The US DOLLAR INDEX is holding above 76, just barely. Slowly, slowly, tis building a base. Odd are those rumours but plenty that home re-financings are exploding. If so, & Bogus Ben Bernanke lowers interest rates like he's told to do, then later in the year all that subprime trash paper will begin to rise. The folks who shorted it (who also spawned it in the first place & pawned it off on the suckers) will then cover & go long, just in time for the government (read: taxpayer) to bail them out with gigantic profits. Isn't crony capitalism wonderful?

DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS is flirting with previous low, & must either climb out of that hole or stocks will fall much farther against silver & gold.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, February 15, 2008

Unless Silver and Gold Prices Fail and Tap Out Early in the Week, Next Week they Should Make Strong Gains

Gold Price Close Today : 902.80
Gold Price Close Last Friday : 918.40
Change: -15.60 or -1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.098
Silver Price Close Last Friday : 17.075
Change: 2.3 cents or 0.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.040
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 76.651
Change: -0.611 or -0.8%

Both SILVER & GOLD PRICES spent the week treading water in a correction. Behold, however, that gold prices stayed above $900 & silver prices above $17. My charts still convince me that this rally has much further to run. Silver has begun to outperform gold -- the really crazy, wild part of the rally.

The Gold/Silver ratio fell this week. People have been asking whether there is still time to swap gold for silver to position themselves for this drop in the ratio. Clearly, the trade doesn't promise as much profit from a 52.82 ratio as it did from a 59 ratio, but I am almost persuaded that this fall will drag the ratio below 40, which would make even swaps out of gold at 52.8 return about 23% gross, maybe 20% net. Call us at (888) 218-9226 if you want to do a swap, but do it fast. (Please mention goldprice.org when you call)

The US Dollar index closed the week above 76, which is progress. Not much progress, but progress, still. Unless silver & gold prices fail & tap out early in the week, next week they should make strong gains.

Choke! The Platinum Price rose 10.3% this week, while its little brother the Palladium Price rose 2.3%. Thin markets + supply interrupted by South African power supply shortages = big price rise. Look for higher prices still - no stockpiles.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has built a -- kinda, sorta -- base above 12,000, but it looks more like a three wave correction of the foregoing fall. DJIA remains below its 200 & 50 day moving averages. I know not what others may say, but as for me -- it looks like its about the plunge the depths.

I hope y'all have already sold your stocks. Often late at night when it's quiet I think about all those folks who have IRAs & 401(k)s & retirement plans all invested in stocks, & how even tho they've lost 75% against gold & silver since 2001, they're still clinging to those stocks because their broker (who makes money selling them stocks) keeps telling them they need to have a "diversified" portfolio. By the time they wake up, their "diversified" portfolio will have dried up & blown away. I wonder if those folks then will take their stockbrokers & decorate lampposts with them? Of course by then, it won't salve much but vengeance --all their money will have been "diversified" out of their portfolios.

Y'all! Travelling is not for me. The communists at the airport all but strip search you. About half the people look & act like barbarians or strip teasers. I saw people with enough bolts, wires, studs, & bangles through their lips, tongues, ears, & other places that they could qualify as scrap metal dealers.

If I had money to invest, I tell you what I'd invest in: a mirror factory. It's obvious to me that the US of A is suffering a major, widespread shortage of mirrors, cause if these folks could see themselves before they left the house, they'd go out wearing burlap bags over their heads or not at all. (Where's the door? I want out of here!)

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Gold Prices Are Either Topping Or Consolidating. How Do We Know?

Gold Price Close Today : 907.40
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 922.90
Change: -15.50 or -1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.218
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 17.433
Change: -21.5 cents or -1.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.37
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 76.56
Change: -0.19 or -0.2%

GOLD PRICES are either topping or consolidating. How do we know? If the gold price closes below $890, gold has topped. If it doesn't close below $900, it will be okay. Behold! The gold price has risen for the last 4 days. It's entitled to a rest. However, the gold price must beat $930.

The SILVER PRICE doesn't look like it's consolidating to me, just tracing out the normal up and down. Wall to batter down is $17.50, while $17 is the line silver must hold. This dips merely offer opportunities to buy.

The silver price is going to rise higher. This rally hasn't nearly ended. Whoa! It has hardly BEGUN!

The Dow in Gold Dollars has now bounced twice off G$274.20 (13.265 oz). Could be temporary bottom. That would mean stocks are about to rally.

GOLD SILVER RATIO has broken to new lows at 52.7, through 54 and now 53. It dropped from 54.144 to 52.7 in the last three days. Today it fell way through its 200 day moving average (53.724). It is about to hit support, crash through, & fall even further. Hang on, hang on, & while you do, get ready to swap silver for gold. Count & inventory your silver & get it packed up now. Swap should arrive by mid-May.

US DOLLAR is still fighting a wall of market disgust and disbelief,
but climbing notwithstanding.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, February 11, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Break Out Upside Against the Competing Fiat National Currencies

Gold Price Close Today : 922.90
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 918.40
Change: 4.50 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.433
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 17.075
Change: 35.8 cents or 2.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.56
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 76.651
Change: -0.09 or 10.1%

The SILVER PRICE has tired of dawdling & is now adding 35 cents a day. I believe it is safe to say we are moving into the latter stage of the rally when the move becomes the steepest & wildest. From here the silver price should climb above $21. Still time to buy silver.

The silver price has broken out, but the GOLD PRICE now must beat its way back through $930, where it stalled before. Relax, this will happen, & probably this week. Sometime later we will want to hedge our gold bets, but not yet, not yet by a long shot.

US DOLLAR INDEX bid fair last week to rally, but in the past few days is staggering again. Frustrating, but unlikely to fall sharply now.

My friend Supertechnician RL on Saturday called my attention to breakouts in silver & gold prices on the charts priced in euros. The euro charts have been the most consistent & easiest to read for some time. Gold Prices have also broken out upside against the Yen, while silver has broken out in Euros & is hammering on the ceiling in Yen.

Now think about it: what does it mean when the alternative currencies silver & gold prices break out upside against the competing fiat national currencies? It means that the "realizers," the folks alertly watching warning signs of the global equivalent of a bar fight, have begun to edge toward the doors. I hope y'all aren't just reading these commentaries. I hope y'all are acting on them.

By the way, later this year we'll see the big correction of this rally, & all the goofs who work on Wall Street & in the media will be blabbering about the "death of gold." Forget that rot & hold on, because those corrections will have begun from much higher silver and gold prices than we now see.

Merciful heavens! Look at that platinum price, up a choking 46 bucks today! Because industrial demand drives platinum, and its cost in end products usually amounts to only a small percentage of the total cost (a catalytic converter in a car, for example), demand for it is inelastic (stiff) to price. That is, rather than shut down the auto assembly line for want of catalytic converters, automobile makers will pay up for platinum. However, over the not-too-long term, when the price keeps on rising, they will begin casting about for near substitutes: palladium.

Whenever you see a stupid impasse like this, what's the first thing you think? I'll bet the government is behind this somehow or other. You'd be right, here, too, because it is government mandated catalytic converters that use huge amounts of platinum (& palladium).

Good thing about my Percherons is that they don't need a drop of platinum or palladium, or a catalytic converter, or a government bureaucrat to tell me how to use 'em. You just put hay in one end, say "Gee!" and "Haw!" & fully recyclable fertilizer comes out the other end. Beat that, Detroit!

But I have strayed from my subject, markets. Let us return . . .

Would somebody explain to me what good the Dow is doing losing 64.87 points one day and gaining 57.56 the next? This ain't the royal road to riches, folks. Get out of stocks fast.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, February 08, 2008

If Gold Prices Merely Matched the Performance in the Last Bull Market, they Would Climb to $11,260

Gold Price Close Today : 918.40
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 908.70
Change: 9.70 or 1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 1707.5
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 1682.4
Change: 25.10 cents or 1.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.651
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 75.484
Change: 1.167 or 1.5%

Friends, silver & gold prices have astonished even me!

Trying to digest the SILVER PRICE over $17 and the GOLD PRICE over $900 has me thinking. Back in 1973, seven years before the last bull market ended in 1980, nobody would have thought gold would climb from US$69.30 then to US$850 seven years later, a 12.266 increase.

From here, this bull market probably will run another seven years, to 2015. If the gold price merely matched its performance in the last bull market, it would climb to (US$918 x 12.266) = $11,260. I know, that sounds ridiculous, but so did US$850 gold in 1973.

Here's another little thought. If the gold price trades to US$11,260, and the gold/silver ratio again tops at 16:1, then the silver price would be trading at $703.76. Yeah, that sounds nuts, but I wonder how $50 silver sounded in 1973 from the standpoint of $2.20 silver?

The silver price closed today at $17.075, after a high of $17.18. However, in the aftermarket silver rose to $17.205. Against a gold price close of $918.40, that's a GOLD/SILVER RATIO of 53.776. Now think: On 1 February the ratio made a new low at 54.012, then rose, & came back down by 7 Feb. to 54.144.

Today it closed at 53.776, & that makes it a breakdown! The 200 DMA now stands at 53.678, which the ratio will likely cross on Monday, & then drop like your car-keys out of your shirt pocket when you lean over to look down a well. Start preparing to swap silver for gold. This also signals that the rally is about to speed up as it enters it last part where silver outperforms gold.

STOCKS have probably bottomed, but will likely revisit that bottom before they rally much. Today the Dow gave up a measly 64.87. Use any rally in stocks to sell, and put the proceeds in silver & gold. Time's running out.

The Dow in Gold Dollars made a new low today at G$274.20 (13.265 ounces). Unless it turns around quickly, stocks are headed down while gold runs wild. The Dow in Silver Ounces has dropped from 754 oz on Monday to 713 oz today, a new low.

The US Dollar today gave back 24 basis points of its 65 bp gain yesterday, to close at 76.65. A higher dollar hand in hand with higher gold ought to demonstrate that both gold & silver trade as independent alternative currencies, and not mere mirror images of the dollar. By the way, the dollar won't fall out of bed any time soon, so breathe a sigh of relief -- if you hold silver & gold, that is.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, February 07, 2008

Big Move Up Coming for Gold and Silver

Gold Price Close Today : 906.10
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 900.70
Change: 5.40 or 0.6%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.735
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 16.508
Change: 22.7 cents or 1.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.89
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 76.14
Change: 0.76 or 1.0%


By its close the GOLD PRICE didn't break out of the $905-$906 resistance, but in the aftermarket it's trading at $911.20. Low today hit $895.90, but gold bounced right back from that to close the day up $5.40. Big move up coming, and an open tomorrow above $910 should carry to a much higher close. Right now 895 is very important support, but I reckon tomorrow y'all will be looking more up to resistance than down to support.

I've been looking at some SILVER PRICE indicators that made me blurt out, "Oh, my goodness!" Looking at the differences between the various moving averages, all three that I occasionally check have turned up. Last two times they did that was exactly before silver erupted.

But back on earth, today's close still didn't break silver out. We need 16.95 to do that. I will be mildly surprised and blush twice if y'all don't see that tomorrow.

Buy more silver. Lots more.

My, oh, my, that Dow in Gold Dollars just looks like it could keep on falling forever, even though I "know" it ought at least rally a little here after such a long fall. Closed today at G$279.42 (13.517 oz), not quite at the all time low of G$276.13 (13.586 oz), but close.

The Dow today took stocks up 47.39 whole points to close at 12,247.49; S&P500 closed at 1336.91, up 10.46. Looks like it's building a little shelf around 12,200 - 12,250. Dow should throw itself a little counter-trend rally here. If so, swap stocks for silver & gold.

The second biggest story today, after gold & silver, was the US DOLLAR INDEX, which rose 78.6 basis points to stop at 76.894. That's not quite a breakout, but does carry the Dollar Index up to its downtrend line. A breakthrough tomorrow would send the dollar climbing a ways. "A ways" is Tennessean for "to 77.854, maybe 78." Likely to happen tomorrow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Gold Price has to Close Above $905, then $915

Gold Price Close Today : 900.70
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 885.90
Change: 14.80 or 1.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.508
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 16.303
Change: 20.5 cents or 1.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.14
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 76.12
Change: 0.02 or 0.0%

Thank God, the tornadoes didn't blow us away last night. They never got closer than a county away, passing generally from Memphis (3 hours west of us) to Nashville (2 hours north). One destroyed a school in Savannah, about an hour west, but we just got a bang-up wind & rain storm. Thanks for your expressions of concern.

For now it looks as if I got it right yesterday when I said the GOLD & SILVER PRICE charts showed reverse head & shoulders bottoms. Both climbed today, the SILVER PRICE rose 20.50 cents to $16.508 while gold climbed $14.80 to US$900.70. I like that close above US$900, even pennies. But this isn't over yet.

Progress must continue -- the gold price has to close above $905, then $915, and the silver price needs to close above $16.95. Alongside the bull market we keep climbing a wall of worry.

US STOCKS (represented by the Dow) droped only 65 points today to close a 12,200. As long as this level isn't broken, it acts as support. The snap-back rally ought to resume now. Use -snatch - every opportunity to swap stocks for silver & gold.

US DOLLAR INDEX held onto its gains, closing up a mere two basis points but holding on nonetheless. Slowly, slowly the buck is building a base.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Gold Should See It's Low Within the Next 2 to 3 Days, Then Resume Rising

Gold Price Close Today : 885.90
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 904.90
Change: -19.00 or -2.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.303
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 1674
Change: -43.7 cents or -2.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 76.12
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 75.34
Change: 0.78 or 1.0%

Well, I couldn't have got things wronger yesterday if I had predicted a sudden epidemic of common sense in Washington & good taste in Hollywood, except for my suspicion about the US Dollar having bottomed. That paid off big time today as the dollar surged 78 basis points. That seems to have grown out of a big fall in the Euro, because on bad news in the service sector this morning, the dollar at first fell, then recovered & never looked back.

The SILVER PRICE dropped 43.7 cents today and the GOLD PRICE dropped 19 bucks. Owch. Strong support stands around 879, stronger still at 850. If that fails, you're looking at lower prices. Gold should see it's low within the next 2 to 3 days, then resume rising.

Some indicators for gold are looking poorly, pointing to extremely over-bought conditions, but if gold can recover in the next couple of days, that won't hurt.

1630 cents is important support for silver. Below that is 1525. Remind yourself meanwhile of the market proverb, "Bull markets climb a wall of worry." Right now, silver & gold have a big lead over every other currency or investment, & they're not about to give that up any time soon.

STOCKS stumbled, then plunged on news that the services industry was stalling. This looks bad, but doesn't contradict the conclusion that stocks are presently rallying. A close below the previous low close, 11,971, would mean stocks are headed much lower, but that hasn't happened yet. Until it does, the trend in force remains in force.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, February 04, 2008

The Gold Price Made a Perfect Reverse Head & Shoulders Bottom Today as Did the Silver Price

Gold Price Close Today : 904.90
Gold Price Close Friday : 908.70
Change: -3.80 or -0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 1674
Silver Price Close Friday : 1682.4
Change: -8.4 cents or -0.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.34
US Dollar Index Friday: 75.484
Change: -0.14 or -0.2%

The SILVER PRICE today made a perfect reverse head and shoulders bottom at $16.40 (the head) and 1650 & 1660 (the shoulders). The silver price should punch through $17 tomorrow or Wednesday for much higher silver prices this week. There's still time for y'all to buy silver -- three to seven years left on this bull market.

The GOLD PRICE also made a perfect reverse head & shoulders bottom today with a low at 891.60. Observe closely also that the gold price closed down today only $3.80, & above US$900. You are watching a reaction off US$930, preparing to attack $930 again -- not over, not over, not over yet. Remember from last rounds that US$915 is the gold price to beat.

I have not remarked the spectacular PLATINUM PRICE performance, but today it reached US$1,800.50. PALLADIUM PRICE, platinum's poor cousin, must move in tandem with platinum because it is a substitute for platinum in many uses. Until lately palladium prices had not moved as much as platinum prices, but now is beginning to play catch up, with a US$427 high today & US$418 close.

Roughly 3/4 Platinum supply comes from southern Africa, South Africa & Zimbabwe, while 1/4 comes from Russia. Palladium supply is just the opposite. Russians controlling the palladium marketing makes projecting a price near impossible, & they work the market cleverly, to their own advantage. Look for much higher prices in both metals, especially now that South Africa has announced another triumph of socialism in the failure of its electric generation industry to keep up. That has caused rationing to gold & platinum mines there. Brilliant stroke, central planners! Having failed to build new generating capacity, the problem now will last until 2012.

Sometime you have to wonder if government isn't too high a price to pay to prevent anarchy.

When a declining market fails to drop on bad news, it's usually a bullish sign (or bearish sign when a rising market fails to advance on good news).

Now apply that to the US Dollar. The last two weeks have slammed the dollar with more bad news than anyone could have predicted, including a 1.25% Fed interest rate drop, but it has failed to reach to new lows, while the Euro has failed to go to new highs. That hints that the dollar has made its low for a while, & is slowly building a base for a rally later this year. Won't be much of a rally, but a rally still.

STOCKS fell back today, but not enough to change any outlook. Day by day it becomes more pressing for y'all to swap stocks for silver & gold. Time is running out.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, February 01, 2008

Silver & Gold Bull Markets are a LOOOONG Ways From Over, 3 to 13 Years

Gold Price Close Today : 908.70
Gold Price Close Last Friday : 910.50
Change: -1.80 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 1682.4
Silver Price Close Last Friday : 1642.8
Change: 39.60 cents or 2.4%

US Dollar Index Today: 75.484
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 75.969
Change: -0.485 or -0.6%


Yee-owch! The GOLD PRICE took it on the chin today & fell thru the $915 support. Yet consider, O man, that the low was $903.30, hardly bleeding & dying. Yes, the gold price is more volatile now, but what do you expect at these nose-bleed heights? That is not the top. Next week will the gold price will rise, maybe not Monday but surely later in the week.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO closed lower today, and fell in the aftermarket to 53.94. That mirrors silver's better-than-gold dance this week.

Today the SILVER PRICE hit a 27-year high at $17.38. About now silver prices ought to kick & begin to outrun gold. 'Tis beginning to appear this rally will run longer than I expected, perhaps into May. Mercy! How high will the silver price rise? Past $21 no doubt.

Remember this: the silver & gold bull markets are a LOOOONG ways from over, 3 to 13 years. Only now are they starting that steep rise that will, by the end, draw in the public(after stocks have picked their pockets clean). Keep on buying a while yet. Buy as much silver & gold as you can get.

Clearly, stocks did make at least an interim bottom on 22 January. This week they gained 536 points (4.49%). Although stocks have gained this week against both silver & gold, it meaneth nothing. It is a temporary correction of stocks' oversold condition. Use this as an opportunity to swap stocks for silver & gold.

The unnoticed story overshadowed by gold & silver's rally is the platinum price, up $156 in 2 weeks, and palladium.

The US DOLLAR INDEX had a better week than those numbers show. It rose about 25 basis points today after dropping under 75 to 74.85, & also successfully defended 75 on Wednesday & Thursday. Good going, Buck! Hardly any chance the dollar will run away upside, however. Dollar will keep on edging up, but slowly, not fast enough to damage silver & gold. Stay out of US dollars -- out!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.