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Monday, March 31, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Are Making the Final Leg Down of an A-B-C Correction

Gold Price Close Today : 916.20
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 930.6
Change: 14.4 or -1.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.30
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 17.925
Change: -62.5 cents or -3.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 71.74
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.701
Change: 0.04 or 0.0%

It appears to me that SILVER and GOLD PRICES are now making the final leg down of an A-B-C correction. This shouldn't last longer longer than Friday of this week, if that long, but could carry lower than the last lows, scaring y'all and me to death, but pulling out at last. Big rally remains in front of silver and gold prices. Hold what you have; buy more.

Today "Secretary" of Treasury Henry "I Used To Work For Goldman Sachs"Paulson announced a plan of sweeping regulatory changes to "modernize" the nation's financial system in the biggest changes since the Great Depression. Mostly his plan would give the Fed greater regulatory authority and make it the Defender Against All Market Declines So Wall Street Can Rise Forever. Mmmm. . . Let's see. The Fed has done such a capital, such a competent, such a successful job managing the dollar since 1913 that now mentally-Palsied Paulson wants to turn over the rest of the financial system to them, plus make them official backstop for ever-rising markets?

STOCKS remain enmired and unable to climb. Stay out of stocks. Like Ulysses and the Sirens, if you can't stop your ears to the Voices from Wall Street, then tie yourself and your wallet to the ship's mast.

The US DOLLAR, suffering from life-threatening anemia, today lifted its head from the pillow, looked around briefly, then slumped back. The effort exhausted the poor dollar.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, March 28, 2008

Expect Higher Silver and Gold Prices Next Week

Gold Price Close Today : 930.60
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 919.60
Change: 11 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.9
Silver Price Close Last Friday: 16.805
Change: 1.095 or 6.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 71.701
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 72.764
Change: -1.063 or -1.5%

Today's big story is silver. Everything else is a footnote. The SILVER PRICE dropped 61.5 cents today to close at $17.90. Is the world about to screech to a halt? No. Rather, the strength of the correction's B wave was so great that it fooled me (and others) into thinking the correction had ended. It hasn't, but should be finished by Monday or Tuesday of next week. Did it stop today? Can it drop further? Either way -- drop to $16.73 or $16.50 or stop here, correction will not last much longer. Keep your eyes on this: the silver price has much further to run on this rally, much further. That new leg up will start soon. Its strength will shock all of us.

The GOLD PRICE is synchronized with the silver price. Today's drop took it below the 50 day moving average, a good move for shaking out and strengthening the market. Low on the drop last week was $904.70, so next couple of days could see slightly lower prices, or today might have marked the low. As with silver, any price dip brings in customers practically hydrophobic to buy. That much buying power sitting right under the market argues that neither silver nor gold can fall far without setting off a buying firestorm. Expect higher silver and gold prices next week.

Keep on buying silver and gold.


The US DOLLAR INDEX -- well, let me be gentle and kind and say the nicest thing I can say -- stinks. It rallies, then gives up the whole gain. All that can slightly be said for it is that it hasn't yet exceeded its previous low, so could be making a double bottom. For now, the intraday high of 73.19 must be beaten or the dollar is merely marking time until it drops through 70 on its way to historic oblivion.

Lo, I keep hearing people I respect talking about a STOCK market rally, but it just keeps dropping. Today it dropped below its 50 DMA. If it crosses that January low (11,971.19) it will skid like an Olympic skier, and they don't ski uphill. Please, please, before it's too late, swap stocks for silver and gold.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO rallied with the fall in metals, hit that 54.7 high, and turned down again. Be patient, be very patient, and watch closely. Our swapping opportunity will come.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, March 27, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Staggered a Bit Today

Gold Price Close Today : 948.80
Change: -0.40 or 0%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.513
Change: 16.7 cents or 0.9%

US Dollar Index Today: 71.68
Change: 0.31 or 0.4%

SILVER and GOLD PRICES staggered a bit today, confused probably by sellers who think they will resume their corrective downdraft.

Those shorts will tire tomorrow, I suspect, and the gold price will pierce $950. The silver price rose 16.7 cents to close at $18.513. The real target remains at $21, then lift-off.

Keep on buying silver & gold.

The Gold/Silver Ratio made a fast spike high to 54.72, then fell just as fast to close today at 51.4. This screams that silver and gold prices are both going to move much, much higher. We are still waiting for our chance to swap silver for gold, but the correction has delayed it and pushed it off in time.

STOCKS continue to erode, defying the best efforts of Dollar-Bustin' Ben Bernanke to raise them from the dead. Sorry, Ben. A close below January's low would accelerate the debacle. A close above 12,700 would bring on a rally that would last several months, and revive hopes in the hopeless that their stocks will come back to life after all, shortly before their hopes are dashed forever.

The US DOLLAR continues to relentlessly disappoint and move lower. It climbed an impressive 31 basis points today -- impressive, that is, if you don't know that it fell 68 basis points yesterday. Get rid of dollars, get out of dollars, get shut of dollars.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices May Spike Once More Downward, But Far, Far More Likely is a Runaway Upside

Gold Price Close Today : 934.60
Change: 16.30 or 1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 17.762
Change: 69.5 cents or 4.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.19
Change: -0.72 or -1.0%

Yesterday the silver price closed up 26.2 cents $17.067 and the gold price down $1.30 to $918.30. However, both were very strong in the aftermarket.

Then today the SILVER PRICE jumped up 69.5 cents at its close, while the GOLD PRICE leapt $16.30. That would've been strong as a garlic milkshake, but they didn't stop there. The gold price rose in the aftermarket to US$938.50 and the silver price rose another 20 cents to $17.955.

Friends, silver and gold prices may spike once more downward, but far, far more likely is a runaway upside. HUGE gains are coming, startling, amazing even to silver's friends -- and gold's.

Buy now. Now.

People keep asking me about internet rumours that the market is "running out of silver." That's just a tad naïve. Whenever prices run up, down, & back up in a wild market, that causes supply bottlenecks. However, the discount on the buy side of US 90% silver coin has risen from -70 cents to -40 cents in two days -- very very strong. Usually that only happens right before a big upmove.

Stocks must close above 12,700 to turn bullish, but stocks today are confused, with the Dow down 16 points and the S&P up 3.11. Confused markets falter.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, having flirted with 73, fell back today a huge 72.5 basis points to 72.19. Wretched performance. One begins to wonder whether the Nice Government Men really can pull it out of the nosedive after all.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, March 20, 2008

As Suddenly as it Blew in, this Correction Will Pass and the Silver and Gold Price Rally will Resume.

Gold Price Close Today : 919.60
Gold Price Close 14th of March: 998.10
Change: -78.50 or -7.9%

Silver Price Close Today : 16.805
Silver Price Close 14th of March : 20.575
Change: -3.77 or -18.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 71.649
US Dollar Index 14th of March: 72.764
Change: 1.15 or 1.6%

Wow. It was Goetterdaemmerung in gold & silver markets today, but of that more further down.

Don't ever confuse short term market moves with primary trends. The primary trend is that one that lasts 15 or 20 years, the tide of investment trends. You must never try to launch your investment boat against that tide. For silver & gold prices, that primary trend is up; for stocks & the dollar, down. What you are seeing is a short term reaction against over-wide pendulum swings of that trend. The primary trends will shortly re-assert themselves.

The GOLD PRICE fell another $25 today and the SILVER PRICE another $1.59, to $16.808 and US$919.60. The gold price falling to support at $925-$918 was no surprise. It could fall as low as $880, even $840, but I don't expect that. The fall so far has retraced 23.85% of the rise from $652.70 -- enough to complete a correction, conceivably.

The silver price has already retraced 42.7% of its move from $11.489 to $20.688, as of today's aftermarket at $16.76. Low today was $16.50. These corrections have been deeper than I expected (no surprise to y'all), but have fallen enough to make a bottom. Generally these sharp falls in gold and silver prices end within a few days.

Strange is that I feel like an alien from outer space watching this. Most people will be reading this as the end of silver & gold's rally from last August, but I just can't buy that. Why has the gold/silver ratio not troughed? That just doesn't fit, that price peaks would occur in silver and gold prices without the ratio reaching a new low. As suddenly as it blew in, this correction will pass and the silver and gold price rally will resume.

Business was wild as a drunk orang-utan today -- covered up with calls, almost all buying, buying. Physical demand is huge here, and I hear the same from other dealers. I may be crazy as a Betsy bug, but I would still be buying silver & gold.

STOCKS today rose 262 points to close at 12,361.32. That brings them to the (roughly) 13,400 level where the Dow has failed several times before. IF stocks can clear that hurdle, the 12,700 barrier (neckline of the head & shoulders topping formation) stands above, ready to stymie all comers. I'm guessing stocks will rally up to that point before they fail. Remain confident that the US economy's problems -- and stocks primary down trend or bear market -- have not been fixed by dropping interest rates & buying out/off a failed investment bank (Bear Stearns). O, have mercy.

Surely the press & the Establishment treat us like mushrooms. Who could believe such foolery? Only government-school-brainwashed Americans.

Then there is the US Dollar, where we are being asked to believe the monetary equivalent of "anvils fly upward when dropped because we have suspended the law of gravity by congressional act." Nonetheless, even a blind hog finds an acorn now & then, & we knew the dollar was in for a rally. Somehow, I don't believe this is "the big one" just yet.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Next Leg Up in Silver and Gold Prices Rally Will Be a Monster - Buy Now

Gold Price Close Today : 944.70
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 1003.2
Change: -58.5 or -5.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 18.395
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 19.89
Change: -1.495 or -7.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.03
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 71.94
Change: 0.09 or 0.1%


Yesterday & today y'all witnessed one of those very sharp declines in the madly rallying silver and gold prices that I have occasionally warned about.

The GOLD PRICE dropped $58.50 to close at $944.70. Is it the end of the world for gold? O, give thou me a break! This is the same correction I have been looking for. Today probably saw the bottom of it, but it might yet go to US$925.

The SILVER PRICE dropped a large $1.495, which seems to be the biggest drop I can remember lately. Figuring that silver began this rally at $11.489 and rose to $20.688, a $1.495 drop against that $9.199 rally works out to only 16.25%, about right for a correction. Low today was $18.17 Lower silver and gold prices are possible, but most likely is that today marked the low.

Look for this correction to last three to eight days, moving up & sideways from here. The rally has not yet been fulfilled as to Gold/Silver Ratio, and must. Next leg up in silver and gold prices rally will be a monster. Buy now.

In Iran, today is the "National Day of Oil." I'm guessing that loses something in the translation, but in case it doesn't, go pour some oil on your head.

On this day in 1831 was reported the first bank robbery in the United States, at the City Ban of New York City, from whose cold clutches robbers liberated $245,000, equal today to $9,929,725.58 [sic]. The "man bites dog" story here was that somebody stole from a bank, rather than the bank stealing from somebody, the almost universal occurrence.


Did y'all ever watch anybody lean over a newly dead frog with a pair of jumper cables attached to a 12 volt car battery? He hooks 'em up to the frog, and that frog dances like a Cuban in a nightclub. Remove the jumper cables, however, and the frog ceases to move altogether. Ne'er a twitch.

Just so the stock market. Brother Ben comes along with his interest rate jumper cables, hooks 'em up to the stock market, & its dead body jumps and twitches, rising 420+ points. Next day, minus the jumper cables, the stock market drops 293 points.

Y'all are sharp enough to make the comparison. That frog is dead. The US Dollar Index held onto its gains today & actually poked its unkempt head above 72 to close at 72.03. Some sort of rally is long overdue, but I don't think it is beginning yet.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Silver and Gold Price Rally is Not Over Yet - A Spectacular Move is Yet to Come

Gold Price Close Today : 1003.20
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 1001.4
Change: 1.8 or 0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.890
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 20.22
Change: -33.2 cents or -1.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 71.94
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 71.44
Change: 0.5 or 0.7%

The Fed announced that it was lowering its interest rate by 3/4 of a percent, on top of a 1/4% drop Sunday, making the dollar earn that much less and become that much less valuable. Markets responded by buying [that's not a misprint] dollars and the buck rose 50 basis points. Welcome to Cloud Cuckoo Land!

After the deadly announcement SILVER and GOLD PRICES dropped fast. The gold price hit $976.30 and the silver price hit $19.47, but now they are trading at $983 & $19.74. This begins begin a correction that lasts 3 to 8 days. Shouldn't drop much lower than already seen, maybe one more scary drop tomorrow, and that's the end of it. Take this home: the silver and gold price rally is not over yet, and a spectacular move is yet to come.

I have updated the long-term gold price and silver price targets beneath my posts below. Figure that the 2006 gold price high at $720 roughly equals the 195.50 high in December 1974. From that high the gold price increased 434.8% to $850 in 1980, so if the gold price increased 434.8% from $720, it will reach $3,130.56.

If the silver price tops when the Gold/Silver Ratio reaches 16:1 (as I expect), then that yields a silver price target of ($3,130.56/16) or $195.66/oz.

Meanwhile, back on Wall Street & in Washington, the Mystick Monks of the Federal Reserve Monetary Shrine announced a 75 basis point interest rate cut, accompanied by announcements of better-than-forecast earnings at Goldman Sachs & Lehman. Listen to this: Goldman rose 16% on news that its net net income fell only $3.23 a share, and Lehman's income fell only 82 cents a share. Wow. That's sure the kind of investment I want to load up on.

All this good news sent the Dow up 420 points, only about 300 points from where it broke down below the head & shoulders topping formation neckline. Do you laugh or puke at all this? Wall Street, assisted by its accomplice in crime, the federal government and Fed, robs the public & shifts off its losses on the taxpayer, then announces in sanctimonious tones that its public benefaction has assuaged the crisis - all to the sound of self-congratulating applause. Mercy! Thank the murderers for cleaning up the corpse!

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, March 17, 2008

Today the Gold Price Jumped as High as $1,029 on Fears the Entire World and Several Adjacent Planets Would Financially Melt Down

Gold Price Close Today : 1001.40
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 998.10
Change: 3.30 or 0.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.220
Silver Price Close Last Friday : 2057.5
Change: -35 cents or -1.7%

US Dollar Index Today: 71.44
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 71.649
Change: -0.21 or -0.3%

Well I remember than when the stock market crashed in 1987 I witnessed how the manipulating Nice Government Men (at that time hatchet man Robert Rubin, I understand) killed the gold price. Rather than wading in to the huge gold market and trying to knock down the price there, they waited till after the market had closed, went into the much thinner aftermarket trading, and into the MUCH thinner platinum market. Why? Because anyone watching gold would be watching platinum, too, and arbitrageurs would sell gold if they saw platinum dropping sharply. In 1987, it worked.

Today the GOLD PRICE jumped as high as $1,029 on fears the entire world & several adjacent planets would financially melt down. But at the day's close the gold price had been battled back to $1001.40, the silver price had actually dropped 35 cents, the palladium price fell 29 bucks, and the platinum price crashed a huge $102.60. Mmmmm. Does that spark a memory? This time, it didn't work.

Today on Wall Street the Big Shark (J.P. Morgan) ate the Little Shark (Bear Stearns), saving himself 93.7% over last Friday. The Big Shark drove a hard bargain, but got his lunch anyway, paid for by the Fed. 'Tisn't clear at all whether the Fed's emergency 1/4 point interest rate drop & the saving "sale" of Bear Stearns saved anything yet. The bloody mist of panic fills the air, & the Fed with its feckless trick is trying to calm the crowd -- and shift the banks' losses off onto the taxpayers' backs.

Biggest force in favour of avoiding a complete catastrophe is that every morning, five billion people wake up with one question in their minds. It is not, "What will I do when the financial system collapses?" but "What can I do today to make things work?"

Inertia is the system's greatest ally. (We already knew it wasn't righteousness.) Events of last few days have left me very thoughtfully examining everything. In the event of a bank holiday, where would you rather have your assets: in bank deposits, or cash in hand? In bank deposits, or silver & gold in hand? Principle to remember is this: when the crisis arrives, it will be too late to take protective action. If you ought to do it, do it now.

Stocks traded as low as Dow 11,756 today, but -- O look, Mama! -- managed to finish up a whopping twenty points on the day. Thanks, Nice Government Men on the Plunge Protection Team! Bottom line? By no means has the threat of systemic collapse disappeared, but it has been wounded. Be warned: it's every man for himself.

GOLD/SILVER RATIO swap (swapping silver for gold) is still coming, the ratio dropped 1.003 or 2.1% to 49.53 today. Keep careful watch.

US DOLLAR index sank again, down 0.3% to 71.44.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, March 14, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Have Come Out of a Short Correction to Resume the Rally

Gold Price Close Today : 998.10
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 972.20
Change: 25.90 or 2.7%

Silver Price Close Today : 2057.5
Silver Price Close Last Friday : 2015.8
Change: 41.70 cents or 2.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 71.649
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 73.029
Change: -1.380 or -1.9%


Last week I suspected that SILVER and GOLD PRICES were entering a short correction, about 6%, then would shortly come out of that to resume the rally. From today, it seems that was correct. Tuesday's lows were US$969.90 for gold and $19.676 for silver and then they began to rise again. The gold price has made a new high, but so far silver has not. That's the one last puzzle piece that must fall into place to absolutely cinch that theory.

We are now within probably 30 trading days of the blow-off highs, unless this rally takes a bizarrely different turn compared to the last rally. It's somewhat remote, but there's always a chance the corrupt incompetents in Washington will mismanage the crisis and push the dollar over the edge into the abyss that bottoms at the center of the earth. Assuming that doesn't happen, the silver price can move to $24 - $27 and the gold price to US$1,100 or higher before a long correction begins.

Recall that one month ago silver stood at $17.09 and the gold price at US$902.80. That's right, gold has added nearly US$100 and silver $3.24 in one month. Over the next 30 days, they will add even more.

The Gold/Silver Ratio is probably within 5 weeks of hitting its trough. If you want to swap silver for gold, better get ready.

These nose-bleed silver & gold prices are making me philosophical. Folks, something is boiling under the surface that we're not seeing, & it's huge & threatening. "If they do these things in the green tree, what will they do in the dry?"

On Tuesday the Federal Reserve announced some new "facility" that, essentially, would swap the banks US Treasury bills for the rotten mortgage-backed securities & other dog-paper -- to the tune of $200 billion bucks.

Wild with joy that Bernanke really was bailing out Wall Street (as if the rest of us out here in "flyover country" ever doubted that) the stock market jumped up more than 400 points. Yet here I am, hard-hearted, steely-eyed realist, ready to remind all those fooled by stocks that for all the smoke, mirrors, & hogwash, at the week's end, stocks stood only 57.4 points higher than last week -- and only then because SOMEbody (read: Nice Government Men) suddenly decided to buy in the day's last hour, & then returned with MORE buying the last 15 minutes.

Dow has formed an enormous head and shoulders top, then broken down form that top, then rallied back to the neckline. The future is clear: stocks will drop much further unless they clear 12,700 suddenly. Swap stocks for silver & gold.

Today the Dow in Gold Dollars fell below G$250.00 to close at G$248.97 (12.044 oz), down from its 1999 high at G$925.42 (44.767 oz). Dow in Silver Ounces closed today at 580.85 oz., down from its 2001 high at 2,566.04 oz. in 2001. Y'all do the math, then factor in the 6-7 years left to run on the metals bull market, and ask yourself, "Do I really want to leave my money in stocks?"

The "Management" has decided to let the US dollar fall. And fall. And fall. Don't get caught beneath it.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, March 13, 2008

Gold Price Traded Above US$1,000 for the First Time in History

Gold Price Close Today : 992.30
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 978.80
Change: 13.5 or 1.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.339
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 19.911
Change: 42.8 cents or 2.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.2
Change: -0.45 or -0.6%

Today for the very first time in history the GOLD PRICE traded above US$1,000, hitting a high of US$1,000.10. It gained 13.50 to close at a new high, US$992.30. It's going higher, at least another $38 & probably much higher than that.

The SILVER PRICE, however, closed at $20.339, up 42.8¢, but not a new high. (Standing silver price high is $20.688). This action is wonderful, but the silver price needs to move to a new high tomorrow, along with the gold price, to cement these gains and show that the small corrections has been completed. Otherwise there might be one more shocking leg down. It appears, however, that silver & gold prices are on the road to blowing off. Where the top lies, nobody knows.

Now turn this over in your mind: these silver and gold prices are merely the beginning of a bull market that will last another 7 or 8 years.

The Gold/Silver Ratio dropped again today, and is signaling that a trough should hit in five or so weeks.

Check out a yearly chart & y'all will see that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken down from a plain Head & Shoulders top formation, & has rallied back up to the neckline, & fallen off again. That neckline stands about 12,700, so unless a rally climbs over that line, the Dow's doom is sealed: very much lower.

Clearly, the policy of the Fed, the US government, and whoever pulls their strings is to let the US DOLLAR depreciate. Today the dollar index plunged to yet another new low, 71.795, losing nearly 50 basis points today after losing 88 beeps yesterday. At 50 beeps a day, the dollar will only need another 142 days to reach zero. Are you listening, Nice Government Men?


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Hold On To Your Hats - Silver and Gold Prices Are Fixing to Blow

Gold Price Close Today : 978.80
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 974.2
Change: 4.6 or 0.5%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.911
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 19.676
Change: 23 cents or 1.2%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.3
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.2
Change: -0.9 or -1.2%

Not only did the facts not knock my theory in the head, today they confirmed it.

The SILVER PRICE has made a triple bottom, refusing Monday, Tuesday, & today to break, holding at $19.20, $19.31, and $19.35. Silver closed up today 23.50¢ at $19.911. In the aftermarket it has risen another 22¢ to $20.12. This bests the $19.85 high on Tuesday, and agrees with my theory that we were seeing a shallow, brief correction before resuming the rally furiously.

The GOLD PRICE traced out a pattern similar to silver's, with a rising triple bottom. Only confirmation still lacking is climbing above Tuesday's $985 high, which tomorrow should see or I will probably be dead wrong about everything else.

Y'all hold on to your hats -- silver & gold prices are fixing to blow! If you haven't bought yet, you'd better buy some now.

Unbeknownst to me, who readeth not newspapers nor listeneth to news, the Federal Reserve yesterday agreed to swap Treasury Securities to banks for rotten, non-performing, subprime, subsubbasement securities, thus bailing out the banks (Surprise! They're corrupt!) That sent the stock market & the US DOLLAR INDEX into hyperdrive. Today, take stock in stocks & buck: stocks are barely above 12,000 at 12,110 and dollar index lost a hemorhagic 89 basis points today and closed at a new low.

Way to go, Nice Government Men! See if you can't blow up the Washington Monument with your next move.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Have More Upside Coming

Gold Price Close Today : 974.20
Gold Price Close Yesterday: 969.90
Change: 4.30 or 0.4%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.676
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 19.698
Change: -2.2 cents or -0.1%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.20
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.00
Change: 0.2 or 0.3%

My theory about SILVER and GOLD PRICES -- that the present downward movement is but a correction in an ongoing rally that will shortly resume - remains alive. Nothing happened today in silver & gold to change that. Note that the silver price dropped slightly while the gold price rose a little. See the confusion as the market tries to figure out which way to go? The Silver price today dipped to $19.31, lower than yesterday, but except for that brief lapse, stayed above $19,50. Good. Silver & gold prices have more upside coming.

Squeeeel! He said, turning on a dime, Today's jump off a low of Dow 11,731.60 looks like a double bottom with the 22 January intraday low at 11,634.82. If so, you won't see (for a time) a low lower than this 11,731.6 (intraday), & the Dow should rally at least to 12,750 or better, perhaps even to the 200 DMA now around 13240.

Wait, wait, Moneychanger! Hast thou changed thy mind? Or lost it? Neither. Even markets locked into primary downtrends (like stocks since 2000) from time to time stage rallies, & few rallies are more spectacular than bear market rallies. Why? Because they catch a mob of shorts short, who then panic to cover their shorts, driving the price suddenly skyward. Just as suddenly, the rally dies. Don't let it fool you. Stock market is huge, so can take a very long time to turn, but once you have all that weight hurtling in one direction - down - it falls a long time. Don't get suckered into stocks.

The US DOLLAR INDEX, moved no doubt by rumours of Elliott Spitzer's resignation, moved up nearly 20 basis points. Primary trend is still down, but a rally of 3 - 6 months probably lieth in the near future.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, March 10, 2008

Silver and Gold are Making a Minor Correction Before Surging to New All Time Highs

Gold Price Close Today : 969.90
Change: -2.3 or -0.2%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.698
Change: -46 cents or -2.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.00
Change: -0.03 or -0.3%

A theory in motion tends to stay in motion until knocked in the head by the facts. Thus, I will stick to my theory that silver & gold are making a minor correction before surging to new all time highs - much higher
highs.

What facts would knock my theory in the head, knobkerrying its brains all over my computer? Well, if it really is a minor correction, it shouldn't fall
much further than $19 and US$950.

What happened today? Silver fell as low as $19.18 (I think that happened over the weekend, because I never saw it even near that low) and gold to $960.90. That would take both low enough. If however metals breach those lows more than 1 or 2%, down comes the shillelagh on my theory's head. To remind y'all, my theory argues that gold & silver price peaks do not occur before the Gold/Silver Ratio troughs, & the Ratio is nowhere near making a trough yet commensurate with the last two troughs. Ratio needs to drop about 11 points from here. But remember, the Ratio can drop very fast, blindingly fast, so all you swappers get ready.

STOCKS have broken support, followed through, & issued one half of a new Dow theory down signal. Standing in front of that (by holding on to stocks) is akin to kids standing in front of a roaring freight train because they want to flatten pennies on the railroad tracks. The prize ain't worth the game.

US DOLLAR INDEX still hath not resolved my indecision: hath it broken down, or hath it not? My outer limit to prove a breakdown was 72.99. It spiked briefly thereunder, then climbed back to loll around 73.00. Dollar index speak with forked tongue - which will it be? Well, doesn't make that much difference because the most it could rally would be to 83 or so before it falls off again.


Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Friday, March 07, 2008

If Silver and Gold Prices Haven't Peaked Yet, What's Going On?

Gold Price Close Today : 972.20
Gold Price Close Last Friday: 972.10
Change: 0.10 or 0.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.158
Silver Price Close Last Friday : 19.808
Change: 35 cents or 1.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.713
US Dollar Index Last Friday: 73.029
Change: -0.684 or -0.8%

What a week, today was just a top on gold & silver prices doesn't fit yet with (1) time of last cycles, or (2) drop in Au/Ag ratio.

SILVER & GOLD weren't throwing a garden party today, silver jumping around 15 & 30 cents at a lick, up & down, & gold just as bad. Platinum and palladium looked sick as dogs, the platinum price down US$159 while the palladium price fell a mere $34.20.

Looking at this week's daily charts, Platinum & Palladium prices appear to have topped. Gold's Wednesday & Thursday charts together look double-toppy. Gold failed at $992.50 twice, but defended $970 stoutly as support (extend that to $957 on a push). Silver's chart doesn't look quite as weak, with only one peak at $21.20 and very strong buying around $19.80 ($19.40 at the widest).

So what could argue that is NOT a top? Well, everything else. If silver and gold prices peak without making a new low in the silver/gold ratio, it will be the first time that has happened since this bull market began. That would make no sense at all (recalling that often markets do things that make no sense we can see). Also, the time is not quite full yet.

But if silver & gold prices haven't peaked yet, what's going on? Here's a possibility: both metals will correct as they take a rest & a deep breath to push through $21 and US$1000. Correction lasts a few days, then about the time everybody thinks the rally has ended (& the bull has also managed to shake most everybody off) both metals turn skyward again.

I may look stupid standing out here alone, but I just can't argue with that unfulfilled GOLD/SILVER RATIO. Unless the gold price closes below $942 & silver price below $19.50, both silver & gold will reach much higher prices.

Look at that US DOLLAR INDEX. Course, it doesn't HAVE to fit anything, but 'twould be passing odd if the ratio bottomed this cycle ABOVE where it bottom last time, since the ratio is in a primary down trend. My "must hold" number for that is 72.99. It broke that this week, by a little, but came back today to close above 73 -- barely. Jury is still out over whether dollar will continue falling like an anvil out of a 747 Jumbo Jet over the Pacific, or grab hold & rally.

Mercy! Don't y'all think a rally is a mite overdue? How sorry can anything get?

Then there is the STOCK market. The Dow has been flirting with crucial support at 12,000 all week, same way a little boy flirts with a sharp knife until he finally cuts himself good & deep. Like diving into ice cold water, the Dow fell through 12,000 this morning early, then whoo! Shook itself & climbed quickly back above 12,000, then just sank beneath the waves. Just let go. S&P 500 closed below 1,300 support at 1,292.61. If I owned stocks, I'd be puking in my wastebasket. Right now, it appears stocks will follow through downside with much lower prices.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Thursday, March 06, 2008

Gold Price Will Need Two or Three Runs to Break the $1000 Barrier

Gold Price Close Today : 975.80
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 986.2
Change: -10.4 or -1.1%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.170
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 20.685
Change: 51.5 cents or -2.5%

US Dollar Index Today: 72.88
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.48
Change: -0.6 or -0.8%

I should have known better than to say that yesterday's trading answered questions from the day before: markets always speak out of both sides of their mouths.

So what do we make of this mess today? Let's try to unravel this Gordian Knot, & if it gives us too much trouble, we'll just cut it.

The European Central Bank & the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged today, which promptly pulled 60 basis points off the dollar. It landed at a new low of 72.878. Unless that's merely a wash-out bottom spike (a strong possibility), then the dollar has much much further to fall. However, with markets 80% bearish on the dollar, one wonders who is left to sell? Ultra bearishness makes me as nervous as ultra bullishness, because the "ultra" in both signals a price extreme.

Now, here's where interpretation gets sticky: how extreme is extreme? Overbought can get more overbought, and then more overbought still. Nonetheless, this extreme bearishness is flashing a yellow light for a coming dollar turnaround.

But that raises a kindred question: what is driving silver & gold? Is it a panic out of dollars, or panic over credit crunch, or panic over the Euro's sustainability (Italy & Greece are sinking into recession & their bonds are diving)? Only price will tell us when the panic has ended.

US STOCKS dropped 214.6 points on the Dow, to land at 12,040.39, just 40 points off the mystical 12,000, which crossing passeth over into the land of witches & warlocks & plunging stock indices. Silver & gold may pain us with volatility, but leastways it's up & down volatility, & not one way down. Get out of stocks. Swap them for silver & gold.

The GOLD/SILVER RATIO rose a bit today, to 48.379, up from 47.670. Whew! We need time for this. I'm thinking that the silver & gold peak in April 2004, followed by a peak 2 years later in 2006, has people trigger-happy & may bring that peak early this trip. Watch the end of March.

SILVER and GOLD PRICES both dropped today, to US$975.80 & $20.17. Who is surprised that the gold price hit 992.50, nearly US$1,000, & then backed off? Raise your hand. The gold price will need two or three runs to break the $1000 barrier, but it will. Silver faces a similar challenge at $21, & will similarly meet it. Higher prices coming still. At the same time, never forget we might be staring the peak in the eye.

Platinum & palladium took body blows today, dropping 100.10 & (Mercy!) 45.45. This volatility argues that a top is nigh.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Gold Price Up $22.30 to Close at Another New Record High, US$986.20 - When Will it Stop?

Gold Price Close Today : 986.20
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 963.90
Change: 22.30 or 2.3%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.685
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 19.738
Change: 94.7 cents or 4.8%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.48
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.71
Change: -0.23 or -0.3%

Well, I reckon today's trading answers all those questions that yesterday agitated us. The SILVER PRICE closed at $20.685, up 94.7 cents, a little more than 3% above the last high (day before yesterday) at $20.073. The GOLD PRICE rose US$22.30 to close at another new record high, US$986.20.

'Tis fun, folks, but 'tain't normal. Silver gaining a dollar a day and gold gaining ten or twenty won't last forever, but O! What fun while it does.

But the question in y'all's minds is, "When will it stop? How high will they go?" And my answer is, "I'm not a fortuneteller." I can't see any top before March ends, & this may stretch out to May - June. Mmm... Wonder how low the dollar will be then?

Looks like the silver price will hit my $21 minimum target tomorrow or Friday, and the gold price will hit US$1,000 by Friday.

Gold Price High today was $992.92, just US$7.08 off US$1,000. My, O, My, my son says, when the gold price clears US$1,000 won't a lot of the public pour in? Well, more of them for sure, but the public hasn't really piled in to gold and silver yet. When they do, silver will rise more than a dollar a day, and gold more than $20.

DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS made another new low today. Now G$256.88 (12.427 oz) buys the whole Dow. That index, by the way, gained 41 whole points today. The Dow fell in value below 600 oz. of silver to 590 oz.

The US DOLLAR INDEX fell 23 more basis points today to close at a new low. Way more than half our new silver & gold investors say they're afraid the dollar is falling apart. What will happen when larger & larger numbers of the public begin feeling the same fear?

GOLD/SILVER RATIO fell a huge 1.48 points today. Time draweth nigh to swap from silver to gold. I will provide y'all an explanation of how we swap, & what you need to do to swap with us.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Was Yesterday the Silver and Gold Price High?

Gold Price Close Today : 963.90
Gold Price Close Yesterday : 981.50
Change: -17.6 or -1.8%

Silver Price Close Today : 19.738
Silver Price Close Yesterday : 20.073
Change: -33.5 cents or -1.7%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.71
US Dollar Index Yesterday: 73.72
Change: -0.01 or 0%

Volatility struck today. After the SILVER PRICE hit a high of $20.56 and the GOLD PRICE $988 early in the day, the bottom dropped out (so to speak in exaggeration). The silver price dropped as low at $19.50, but hungry bargain buyers quickly ran it up for a close at $19.738. The gold price hit a low of US$956.10 before settling at $963.90, down US$17.60. Nothing much to scare the horses in all that, just volatility to be expected after unbroken days of large run-ups.

But that wasn't what caught my eye. Most interesting outcome of the day was the drop in the gold/silver ratio in the teeth of dropping silver and gold prices, the ratio dropped -0.062 to 48.83. That whispers that silver is stronger than a garlic milkshake right now, so don't step in its way.

On a more sober note, how could we tell if yesterday was the price high and today the first break? Simply enough, as the silver price recovers it will trade right up to yesterday's close ($20.073) or a little higher, then fail. How do we tell the difference? Wait & watch. Meanwhile, that strength in the Gold/Silver Ratio argues that the end is not yet.

Neither the US DOLLAR INDEX nor Stocks (as proxied by the DOW) did anything but continue to bleed slightly today, slipping nearer and nearer critical support.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.



Monday, March 03, 2008

Silver and Gold Prices Could Have a Sudden, Sharp Correction and Just as Sudden a Recovery

Gold Price Close Today : 981.50
Gold Price Close Friday : 972.10
Change: 9.40 or 1.0%

Silver Price Close Today : 20.073
Silver Price Close Friday : 19.808
Change: 26.5 cents or 1.3%

US Dollar Index Today: 73.72
US Dollar Index Friday: 73.713
Change: 0.01 or 0%

I am not gloating, but do y'all recall how lunatic I sounded when I said that the SILVER PRICE would reach $21 at a minimum? Doesn't sound so lunatic now, with the silver price at $20.07, and moving up a dollar every three days.

The GOLD PRICE at US$1,000.00 sounded pretty wild-eyed, too, but not now with gold at US$983.50. Now think: that is only the beginning. I am working up price targets now that make me feel like I'm a lunatic, but I know they're reasonable.

'Twouldn't surprise me to see silver & gold wrench everybody's stomach out with a sudden, sharp correction & just as sudden a recovery. Watch out, watch out. Up here volatility is the ever present harpy.

Poor, sad stocks just bled a little more today, and hung near their must-hold level of 12,000. There's still time left to swap stocks for silver & gold.

US DOLLAR INDEX remained below 74, now at 73.718. Not clear yet whether it's putting in second leg of a bottom, or beginning a new down leg.

DOW IN GOLD DOLLARS (Dow measured by statutory gold dollars) today was G$258.19 (12.490 oz), yet another new low. Barely more than 600 ounces of silver now buys the whole Dow.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger

"Buy Silver and Gold Coins at the Best Prices"
http://the-moneychanger.com/

To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $1,250.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $78.13; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.