Tuesday, February 17, 2009

If the Gold Price Does Clear $1,003, Last March's High, Then It Won't Stop Until it Reaches $1,200

Gold Price Close Today : $967.00
Change: 25.50 or 2.7%

Silver Price Close Today : $14.008
Change: 38.8 cents or 2.8%

Gold Silver Ratio: 69.03
Change: -0.094 or -0.1%

Dow Industrial: 7,569.81
Change: -280.60 or -3.6%

US Dollar Index Today: 87.60
Change: 0.22 or 0.2%

Now, O Mighty Ones In Washington, answer me this riddle: Today the US DOLLAR INDEX broke out of its downtrend, indeed, gapped up, reaching for 88, yet -- Speak to me, O Mighty Ones, leave me not unanswered -- GOLD and SILVER rose, well, mightily, the gold price up 25.50 to US$967.00 and the silver price up 38.8 cents to $14.008.

If I may speak, O Mighty Ones, altho I am lower than dust compared to y'all, I would hazard that FEAR is moving both stocks and the dollar and silver and gold. For lo, stocks flopped, too. Destroy me not, O Mighty Ones, for impudence, but I would also hazard that your nostrums -- sorry, make that "cures" -- are not working, won't work, and the public is catching on.

Stocks hurt badly today. They fell around the globe, anticipating fun in New York, then the Dow fell 280.60 to 7,569.81. That's the lowest close since 20 November, when it hit 7,552.45. S&P500 sank beneath 800 today, very bad juju. Here are the targets to watch: last November's low at 7,552.45; The Oct. 2002 Low at 7,286.27. The half-way mark of the rise form 1982 to 2000, namely, 6,249.95, and the half-way mark of the rise from 1982 to October 2007 at 7,470.73. Unless the Dow turns around fast, much lower prices will follow. Expect them. Do I still expect that rally rebounding from last fall's carnage? Yes, but it's looking to be punier all the time.

The Dow in Gold Dollars fell to a new low for the move today, G$161.57 (7.816 oz.), down from its 8/1999 high at nearly 45 ounces. Dow in Silver today fell to a new low, 539.74 oz. DiG$ is headed for G$G$41.344 (2 oz) or less and Dow in Silver for 36 oz or less.

I don't know. I just don't know. Silver has now reached my $14 target, and gold has burst through 920-940 resistance to knock on the door of the July US$977.70 closing high. They're both overbought, and have risen from $8.80 and US$705 last November. Ought to be time for a rest, but fear can send them skittering higher yet. If the gold price does clear $1,003, last March's high, then it won't stop until it reaches US$1,200. Will the rally extend? Y'all tell me. It's hard to read markets as maniac and terrified as these are.

Comrade Obama has, it seems, surrounded himself with some extremely intelligent dumb people, or extremely dumb smart people, most drawn from Wall Street. Now they fly their true colors, the Red of Socialism. Once might almost suspect they intend to destroy the US and its economy, from the policies they are following. Then again, maybe they're just stupid. After all, that's the simplest answer, and that's what Occam's Razor recommends we choose.

Argentum et aurum comparenda sunt -- -- Gold and silver must be bought.

- Franklin Sanders, The Moneychanger


To avoid confusion, please remember that the comments above have a very short time horizon. Always invest with the primary trend. Gold's primary trend is up, targeting at least $3,130.00; silver's primary is up targeting 16:1 gold/silver ratio or $195.66; stocks' primary trend is down, targeting Dow under 2,900 and worth only one ounce of gold; US$ or US$-denominated assets, primary trend down; real estate in a bubble, primary trend way down.